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Check Out Our 2021 Arbitration Tracker

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MLBTR’s 2021 arbitration tracker is available here.  The tracker is regularly updated and allows for filtering by team, signing status, service time, and whether the player had a hearing.

This year, the date to exchange figures for unsigned arbitration eligible players is Friday, January 15th.  Most teams, if they reach the point of exchanging figures, will not have further negotiations for a one-year deal and will go to a hearing.  This has resulted in an increased number of hearings, about 13 per year on average since 2015.  Over the past decade teams have won 46 hearings, while players have won 44.

With the 60-game season in 2020 and no agreement on how that affects arbitration, the players that have made it this far without a contract are in uncharted waters.  At present, more than 120 arbitration eligible players are without contracts, including Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger, Kris Bryant, Walker Buehler, Josh Hader, and Juan Soto.  The record number of arbitration hearings was set in 1986, with 35.

Does Trevor Bauer Have A Case For Gerrit Cole’s AAV?

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In an article yesterday, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand made a statistical case that Trevor Bauer’s recent body of work justifies him matching or exceeding the record $36MM average annual value Gerrit Cole received in December 2019.  While it may not be true that Cole and Bauer currently have beef, we can at least say the former UCLA teammates once had a rivalry.  Beating Cole’s AAV record would be a major feat for Bauer and agent Rachel Luba.  But as Homer Simpson once said, “Aw, people can come up with statistics to prove anything, Kent.  Forfty percent of all people know that.”  So I set out to see how Feinsand’s claims hold up.

Bauer has had an up-and-down career.  Since 2017, his season ERAs are 4.19, 2.21, 4.48, and 1.73.  Feinsand, who also included Stephen Strasburg in his comparison, mainly focused on each pitcher’s final 90 starts heading into free agency.  Why 90?  Well, a three-season lookback is pretty standard.  A 90-start lookback also happens to be quite convenient for Bauer, as it excludes his rough first half of 2017.

One thing I did not see in Feinsand’s article was any form of a strikeout rate, walk rate, or groundball rate.  Those are the things pitchers do that actually correlate year-to-year.  So here’s that look, with the additional info.  We’ll remove Strasburg, since the question is whether Bauer is worthy of Cole’s AAV record.  (App users can click here to see the 90-start comparison).

Cole had better strikeout and walk rates in his previous 90 starts, which is more important than the ERA difference.  But I was also thinking it’s strange to do a comparison that includes 25 starts from Cole’s 2017 season, his last with the Pirates.  Upon joining the Astros in a January 2018 trade, Cole famously changed his pitch mix and approach, to drastically improved results.  So how would a Bauer-Cole comparison look over the previous 60 starts?  (App users can click here to see the 60-start comparison).

Even though this window excludes Cole’s first five starts of 2018, which were dominant, it further accentuates the differences between the two hurlers.  They’re both strikeout pitchers.  But what Cole did in his walk year – a 39.9 K% – is literally the best in baseball history for a pitcher with at least 100 innings (Cole pitched 212 1/3).  Bauer’s walk year strikeout rate of 36% was historic in its own right – seventh all-time for a qualified starter – but it was only 11 starts due to the 60-game season.  That brings us to one last comparison, one that Feinsand made of each pitcher’s best 11 starts in their walk year (app users click here):

Both dominant stretches, yet Cole’s was clearly better.  If we’re comparing post-2019 Cole to current Trevor Bauer, we can state the following:

  • Cole averaged 97.2 miles per hour on his fastball in his walk year.  Bauer averaged 93.5.
  • On a related note, while both are strong strikeout pitchers, Cole was significantly better for longer.
  • Cole had better control than Bauer.
  • Cole was dominant in two full, consecutive seasons leading up to free agency.  Bauer has never been dominant in two consecutive seasons.
  • Bauer will be 234 days older on 4-1-21 than Cole was on 4-1-20.

On the merits of statistics, I don’t see how one can say that Bauer is better than Cole and therefore deserves a higher AAV.  Feinsand makes a good point, though: if Bauer limits himself to an artificially shorter contract, his AAV should go up from where it would have been had he maxed out the years.  But what is Bauer’s actual years maximum, assuming he won’t take an artificially low AAV like Bryce Harper did?

Given the current state of baseball economics, I’d suggest six.  So to bring enhanced AAVs into play as a reward for an artificially short term, Bauer would probably have to sign for four or fewer years.  Remember, the Dodgers reportedly offered Harper a $45MM AAV on a four-year term.  Instead, he took a $25MM AAV on a 13-year term.

There are several reasons why the Bauer-Cole comparison actually doesn’t matter.  The first is the state of the market in December 2019 compared to the current state of affairs.  All 30 teams brought in significantly smaller amounts of revenue in 2020 than in 2019.  Most of the best free agents remain unsigned, but the ones that did sign exceeded expectations.  It’s an odd combination.  But it’s fair to say market conditions are worse for Bauer than they were for Cole.

The second reason contract comps don’t matter is that free agency is a bidding war.  The goal of every team targeting a free agent is to get that player for as little as possible.  Agents don’t convince teams to spend more money by holding up other free agent contracts from years past.  Generally speaking, teams run circles around agents in statistical chops, anyway.  It’s certainly possible that Luba will be able to get a couple of teams to bid irrationally on Bauer, but it won’t be because of what Cole received.

The last point is that teams don’t pay free agents for what they have done; they pay for what they expect the player to do in the future over the life of the contract.  Again, we have to defer to teams’ superior abilities to forecast what Bauer will do.  They’ll use advanced stats, Statcast data, health history, and proprietary information we’ll never see.  They won’t use ERA, which generally has a year-to-year correlation around 0.4.  But that’s how a team’s GM will approach it.  Signing Bauer is an ownership-level decision, and an owner is unlikely to analyze a potential signing with the same sophistication as the GM.

As Bauer once put it, he and Cole are “intertwined forever.”  The UCLA teammates were drafted two picks apart in 2011 and made their way to MLB free agency coming off fantastic walk years.  But as I see it, Bauer’s current position falls short of where Cole stood when he hit the market in 2019.

Top 10 Remaining Free Agents

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The Major League Baseball offseason opened over two months ago, though free agency has moved at a snail’s pace to this point. MLBTR ranked the top 50 free agents in the game heading into the winter, and at least some of those names have come off the board. Based on our contract predictions, here’s a look at the top 10 players still sitting on the open market…

1.) Trevor Bauer, RHP (original prediction: four years, $128MM)

  • As was the case when the offseason opened, it’s unclear what kind of deal Bauer is seeking. Yes, he’d probably love to break Gerrit Cole’s annual average value of $36MM, but will it be for one year or over the long haul? Bauer, the reigning National League Cy Young winner, has continued to leave all options on the table. While Bauer recently met with the Blue Jays, there haven’t been many strong rumors connecting him to specific teams. Regardless, it seems likely Bauer will price himself out of Cincinnati, where he thrived in 2020.

2.) J.T. Realmuto, C (original prediction: five years, $125MM)

  • Again, there doesn’t seem to be much happening with Realmuto. The Phillies, with whom he spent the previous two years and served as the game’s best catcher, certainly want him back. But are they willing to meet Realmuto’s demands? No dice so far. Otherwise, as MLBTR’s Anthony Franco wrote a couple weeks back, the Jays, Angels and Astros are just a few teams that could conceivably sign Realmuto.

3.) George Springer, OF (original prediction: five years, $125MM)

  • Springer was among the sport’s best outfielders in Houston from 2014-19, but it doesn’t seem as if he’ll remain with the club. Springer reportedly has multiple offers worth upward of $100MM, though the Astros haven’t really been connected to him in the rumor mill this winter. The Jays and Mets have come off as Springer’s most ardent suitors to this point, though New York’s interest may have cooled off after it acquired shortstop Francisco Lindor and right-hander Carlos Carrasco from Cleveland last week. The Mets might rather duck the $210MM luxury tax in 2020, and adding Springer would make that a difficult goal to achieve.

4.) Marcell Ozuna, OF/DH (original prediction: four years, $72MM)

  • Wouldn’t it be nice if MLB announced whether there will be a universal DH in 2021? The decision will be quite meaningful to someone like Ozuna, who was a DH more than an outfielder with Atlanta last season. Thanks in part to the lack of clarity on the DH position, Ozuna’s market has been quiet so far. However, anyone acquiring him will land a player who was an all-world hitter in 2020. The 30-year-old dominated in both bottom-line statistics and Statcast figures.

5.) DJ LeMahieu, INF (original prediction: four years, $68MM)

  • Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but Toronto looks like a realistic possibility for another top free agent in LeMahieu. That said, the Yankees – with whom the second baseman was outstanding from 2019-20 – as well as the Dodgers, Red Sox, Braves, Cardinals and Mets may be in the mix. It’s a bit befuddling that the Yankees haven’t yet used their financial might to bring back LeMahieu, who apparently wants to re-sign after a batting title-winning, near-AL MVP season, but the two sides have been unable to close the gap in negotiations. In an ideal world for LeMahieu, he could collect around $100MM on his next deal. That’s a far cry from the two-year, $24MM contract he previously signed with the Yankees.

8.) Didi Gregorius, SS (original prediction: three years, $39MM)

  • The Gregorius rumor mill has been surprisingly quiet to this point. Aside from 2019, when Sir Didi was coming back from Tommy John surgery, he has been consistently productive over the past few years. He rebounded last season in Philadelphia, perhaps his lone season with the team, though it may not be willing to re-sign him if it isn’t going to spend a large amount. Barring a re-signing in Philly, two of Gregorius’ other ex-teams – the Reds and Yankees – might be among those to make pushes for him.

10.) Masahiro Tanaka, RHP (original prediction: three years, $39MM)

  • Beyond Bauer, the starting pitching market has dwindled rapidly in terms of both free agency and trades. A few examples: Marcus Stroman and Kevin Gausman, whom MLBTR initially ranked as top 10 free agents, accepted qualifying offers. Meanwhile, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell joined new teams in blockbuster deals, and Nippon Professional Baseball’s Tomoyuki Sugano decided to stay in Japan. Tanaka – who, like Darvish and Sugano, hails from Japan – is still available, and he might be the second-best starter left in free agency. Even though the 32-year-old generally got the job done as a Yankee from 2014-20, the team hasn’t made a big effort to sign him to this point. Neither has anyone else, it seems, and Tanaka hasn’t closed the door on a return to Japan.

11.) Jake Odorizzi, RHP (original prediction: three years, $39MM)

  • Odorizzi went through an injury-limited 2020 in Minnesota, recording a mere 13 2/3 innings, but teams know what he’s capable of doing. As recently as 2019, Odorizzi was an All-Star with a 3.51 ERA in 159 frames. The Twins then gave Odorizzi a qualifying offer, which he accepted, though it wouldn’t be surprising to see him reel in a multiyear deal before next season. At least a few teams have shown interest in the soon-to-be 31-year-old this winter.

12.) Liam Hendriks, RHP (original prediction: three years, $30MM)

  • Hendriks may have been the top reliever in baseball in the previous two years in Oakland, but he doesn’t seem to be in free agency at the preferred time. Also soon to turn 32, the Blue Jays (if you can believe it), Dodgers, Astros and White Sox have been connected to Hendriks over the past couple of months.

13.) Michael Brantley, OF/DH (original prediction: two years, $28MM)

  • Considering the defensive questions surrounding him, Brantley is in a similar position to Ozuna at the moment. It would be beneficial to Brantley if MLB kept the universal DH around next season, as he’s a 33-year-old (34 in May) with an injury history who didn’t see much time in the field as an Astro in 2020. A few teams have shown interest in Brantley since then, though it doesn’t appear he’s all that close to signing anywhere.

MLBTR Poll: Grading The Francisco Lindor Trade

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The Mets and Indians made perhaps the biggest trade of the offseason earlier this week. Star shortstop Francisco Lindor and right-hander Carlos Carrasco are now Mets. They represent the biggest pair of additions for a New York club that has been expected all offseason to pursue star-level talent.

Lindor, of course, was seen as a near-lock to be moved all winter. The Indians seemingly never came close to working out an extension with the four-time All-Star. With Lindor one season removed from hitting free agency, it looked apparent Cleveland would trade him away. Carrasco was less obviously going to be moved this winter, but it wasn’t a huge surprise the Indians parted with him, either. Carrasco’s two-year, $27MM deal (with a 2023 option) marked the biggest guaranteed contract on Cleveland’s books. Lindor’s projected arbitration range ($17.5MM — $21.5MM) would’ve easily been the Indians’ largest 2021 expense.

Each of Lindor and Carrasco remains a bargain at those rates relative to their on-field production. But Cleveland’s ownership has signaled a desire to cut payroll this winter; it wasn’t hard to foresee that coming via jettisoning the team’s highest-paid players. Cleveland’s estimated $40MM payroll, per Roster Resource, is now less than half the team’s 2020 season-opening outlay (prior to prorating).

While finances were an obvious element of the trade, it wasn’t a mere salary dump. The Indians brought in four young players, two of whom are immediate big leaguers. Amed Rosario is a former elite prospect who has been up and down over his first three-plus MLB seasons. Andrés Giménez was a highly-regarded farmhand himself and had a decent if unspectacular rookie year. The pair of prospects, right-hander Josh Wolf and Isaiah Greene, are recent high school draftees. They rank 25th and 28th, respectively, in the Indians’ farm system at FanGraphs.

Turning things over to the readership, how did each team fare in this week’s blockbuster?

(poll links for app users)

 

 

Trade Candidate: Jon Gray

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Much has been written about the Rockies potentially trading stars Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story. There has been decidedly less chatter about starter Jon Gray. On the surface, though, the right-hander looks to be one of the more sensible trade candidates around the league.

That’s mostly a function of his contractual status. Gray has five years and sixty-two days of MLB service, meaning he’ll hit free agency at the end of next season. Meanwhile, contending in the NL West will be an uphill battle for the Rockies. The Dodgers are a perennial juggernaut, while the already-contending Padres made a trio of impact additions last month. The Giants also had a decent 2020 season; the Diamondbacks did not, but Arizona has largely the same roster that won 85 games and finished second in the division the year before. As Dan Szymborksi of FanGraphs examined this week, the Rockies look more likely to finish near the bottom of the division than the top.

Colorado projects as a longshot for the postseason, particularly if MLB returns to a five-team-per-league playoff structure in 2021. There’s a case to be made the Rockies should move short-term players for future value. The organization needn’t embark on a full rebuild, but a single year of production from Gray (or Story, for that matter) would probably be worth more to another team than it would to Colorado.

Admittedly, Gray is coming off a dismal season. He pitched just eight games with terrible results before being shut down with inflammation in his throwing shoulder. Gray’s velocity, strikeout and ground ball rates all dropped precipitously from past seasons. He ultimately posted an ERA just under 7.

Yet the former third overall pick looked like a capable mid-rotation starter entering 2020. Over the three prior seasons, Gray pitched to a 4.31 ERA (a deceptively solid mark in the hitters’ haven of Coors Field) across 432.2 innings. In that time, his strikeout (24.2%), walk (7.5%) and ground ball (48.8%) rates were each better than league average. As is, Gray was a productive starting pitcher. There remained some hope the former top prospect could yet emerge as a top-of-the-rotation arm. His fastball was in the mid 90’s and he flashed a pair of swing-and-miss breaking pitches.

After his disastrous 2020, Gray would be a reclamation project. But it’s easy to imagine plenty of contenders having interest in acquiring him. Eight poor starts don’t negate what Gray had achieved in the seasons before. His ending last season on the injured list is a red flag, but it’s notable the Rockies seemingly believe he can return to form this year. Otherwise, it wouldn’t have made sense for the Colorado front office to tender him an arbitration contract, projected in the not-insignificant $6MM range, as they did in November.

There has been no indication the Rockies are actually exploring trades involving Gray this offseason. On paper, though, Colorado looks a reasonable bet to subtract short-term pieces from the major league roster. Gray’s pre-2020 track record and past flashes of high-end raw stuff could entice some teams closer to contention to call the Rockies, particularly in a winter without many obvious rotation upgrades available in free agency.

MLBTR Poll: Will The Nationals Unlock Kyle Schwarber’s Potential?

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In a sport known for its protracted regular season and voluminous historical records – playing for a franchise that had been without a championship crown for over a century – Kyle Schwarber established his legacy over a seven-game stretch of the 2016 playoffs. Though he only appeared in five games of the World Series, physical perseverance, inspired play and a confident batting eye turned Schwarber into a Chicago legend at the tender age of 23. His presence as a designated hitter for road contests at Progressive Field played no small part in turning the tide on a 3-1 series deficit (though starting Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, and Kyle Hendricks in consecutive games didn’t hurt either). Schwarber reached base in half of his 20 plate appearances, and the Cubs won three of four games in Cleveland to take the crown.

While the baseball community largely recognizes that playoff performance is not predictive – nor repeatable – Schwarber is living proof that small samples, at times, do prove enduring. Schwarber will be memorialized for generations in Chicago for his appearance against the Cleveland Indians in 2016.

His myth-making return from season-ending injury is also a warning against our tendency to muddle the narrative of heroes. In that World Series, Schwarber did lengthen the lineup and provide a fear factor that was easier to see in real-time than in box scores after the fact, but it’s fair to wonder if his impact in Cleveland didn’t unwittingly get conflated with his status as a top prospect and his gargantuan output in the 2015 playoffs, when he hit .333/.419/.889 with five home runs in nine playoff games. The years since have only further complicated our ability to manufacture a compact narrative for Schwarber as a ballplayer. For starters, even a .136/.321/.273 line with just one home run, one RBI, two runs scored, and a negative championship win probability over 10 playoff games since 2016 hasn’t totally erased his reputation as a “championship proven” bat.

Further, his stat line in any given year is like an optical illusion (is he black and blue or white and gold?). His production hasn’t matched his reputation, and the advanced metrics don’t match the on-field production. In 2018, Schwarber hit a high-water mark by measure of 3.2 fWAR despite a .238 batting average and career-low 41.5 hard hit percentage. In 2019, he actualizes his “slugger” persona with a .531 slugging percentage, 29 doubles, and 38 home runs. He posted new highs with a 120 wRC+, .282 ISO, and 50.9 hard hit percentage – the third-highest mark in the Majors. The total package still amounted to just 2.1 bWAR/2.6 fWAR – solid numbers, but shy of the line for a presumed All-Star.

Then 2020 happened. His launch angle plummeted, and his .219 BABIP, .204 ISO, .188/.308/.393 line, and 90 wRC+ were all career-worst numbers. When the Cubs non-tendered him rather than pay the projected $7MM to $9MM in arbitration, few were surprised.

But the Nationals paid him $10MM for the 2021 season anyway – and that wasn’t shocking either. After all, Schwarber’s batted ball numbers have made him a popular bounce-back candidate among the Statcast crowd, and it’s not hard to see why: His resume includes finishing in the 95th percentile by exit velocity in 2019 and 2020, the 92nd percentile by barrel percentage in 2017, 2018, and 2019, and that 99th percentile mark by hard hit percentage in 2019.

At the same time, it’s worth considering how much of a role his subpar speed and 28 percent career strikeout rate play in his “under-performance.” He’s not the worst defender in the world, but negative three defensive runs saved in each of the last two seasons doesn’t inspire confidence that he’ll become a plus on that end of the field. Of course, with Victor Robles beside him in the outfield and Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin, and Stephen Strasburg (hopefully) missing bats on a regular basis, the Nats seem to believe he doesn’t have to be a gold glove candidate. Besides, should the designated hitter make its way permanently to the National League, he may not have to spend every day in the grass.

The Nationals hope a reunion with Dave Martinez will provide Schwarber a comfortable environment to reset after a disappointing final season in Chicago. Beyond his relationship with Martinez – his bench coach for the first three years of his career – Schwarber will have a new social circle with whom to yuk it up about the ins-and-outs of hitting. That group will include hitting coach Kevin Long, his collegiate buddy Trea Turner, fellow new kid Josh Bell, and phenom Juan Soto. MLB.com’s Jessica Camerato provides video of Schwarber himself breaking down his new team (via Twitter).

Still very much in his prime entering his age-28 season, Schwarber may yet fulfill the legendary potential he established in the 2016 World Series. Given the new faces in the division and the now-rote proficiency of the three-time defending division champion Braves, the Nationals are counting on a big season from Schwarber to help the franchise rebound from a difficult 2020.

All that said, let’s keep this simple. Will Dave Martinez and the Nationals be able to unlock Schwarber’s potential and see him become a devastating middle-of-the-order presence? Or will Schwarber’s Statcast profile continue to betray him as he hits the ball hard but not often enough to truly classify as an elite bat?

Of course, there are many different ways to skin this cat, so let me offer this final framework as one way to simplify. Schwarber’s value proposition is his bat. By wRC+, which attempts to measure offensive contribution, adjusted for park and league, Schwarber has created 13 more runs than the average player over his career. As noted above, his career-high over a full season is 120 wRC+. But he also produced a 131 wRC+ over 273 plate appearances as a rookie in 2015. For context, 35 players posted a wRC+ higher than 130 in 2019, 24 managed that mark in 2018. Can Schwarber be one of those guys in 2021?

(poll link for app users)

(poll link for app users)

Offseason Outlook: Arizona Diamondbacks

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The 2020 season was bitterly disappointing for the Diamondbacks, who entered the year with playoff aspirations before floundering to the National League’s second-worst record (25-35). Despite that, the Diamondbacks haven’t been active this winter, and that may not change to any significant extent.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players

This year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Free Agents

As last season was winding down for the Diamondbacks, CEO Derrick Hall expressed optimism about the team’s future but cautioned that it would be “far-fetched” for the Snakes to match their $124MM projected payroll from 2020. Hall hasn’t wavered from that since, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reported earlier this week.

Considering Hall’s stance, it’s no shock that the club has been relatively silent since the offseason commenced a couple of months ago. Arizona’s biggest move so far has been exercising right-hander Merrill Kelly’s $4.25MM option, which came as a bit of a surprise after he underwent thoracic outlet syndrome surgery in September. To Kelly’s credit, though, he performed quite well last year, leaving the D-backs content to roll the dice that he’ll return healthy and effective in 2021.

If Kelly is ready to go next year, the team’s rotation should be pretty much set (save for potential depth pickups, that is). Former Giants ace Madison Bumgarner had a stunningly poor year in 2020, his first season as a Diamondback. Nevertheless, with a contract that looks like an albatross, he isn’t going anywhere. Likewise, No. 1 starter Zac Gallen, Luke Weaver and Caleb Smith will stay in the fold. That group isn’t without promise. Bumgarner does have an enviable track record, so the hope is he’ll come close to revisiting his past form; Gallen has been outstanding during his first two seasons; Weaver was terrific two years ago, though he fell off a cliff in 2020 during his return from shoulder troubles; and Smith has at least shown the ability to miss bats.

The larger issue in the Diamondbacks’ pitching staff may be a bullpen that finished last year 18th in ERA and 25th in K-BB percentage. Stefan Crichton, Taylor Clarke and Alex Young are the only sure bets for next season’s bullpen, Zach Buchanan of The Athletic wrote earlier this winter. Among those three, only Crichton fared particularly well. All of the uncertainty leaves the D-backs in need of outside upgrades, but because of their financial situation, it’s up in the air whether they will actually make them. If they do, there are some free agents still available who could make sense as seemingly affordable targets. Kirby Yates, Alex Colome, Jake McGee, Sean Doolittle and ex-Diamondback Archie Bradley are just a handful of the familiar names looking for jobs on the relief market.

On the offensive side, Arizona stumbled to the majors’ 26th-ranked wRC+ and ended up 19th in runs scored. The Kole Calhoun signing worked out very well in Year 1, but the Diamondbacks lost one of their other top hitters – Starling Marte – in a trade with the Marlins at the August deadline. Their offense would look a lot stronger with Marte still around, but now it’s unclear who will start in center field on a regular basis next season. Ketel Marte, who went from 2019 MVP candidate to so-so in 2020, is a candidate, though the D-backs might rather have him at second base. Otherwise, there aren’t necessarily any other obvious choices on the roster, but Tim Locastro and Daulton Varsho could be possibilities. Jackie Bradley Jr. would seem to make sense as a free-agent pickup, especially considering the longtime Red Sox’s ties to former Boston executive and current Diamondbacks general manager Mike Hazen. However, Hazen is hamstrung by the Diamondbacks’ budget, so a Bradley signing might be out of the question.

Aside from second and center (depending on where they mainly deploy Ketel Marte), most of the Diamondbacks’ position player group looks to be set. Calhoun’s coming back, while catchers Carson Kelly and Stephen Vogt should continue handling that spot (and Varsho could get some time there). The same can be said for first baseman Christian Walker, third baseman Eduardo Escobar and shortstop Nick Ahmed. Left fielder David Peralta is also scheduled to return, though he has come up in plenty of trade rumors in the past (including this week). He’s due a guaranteed $15MM over the next two seasons, and though that isn’t an exorbitant amount, maybe the D-backs will be tempted to deal him if they want to save money.

While the offseason is still somewhat young, signs are pointing to the Diamondbacks bringing back mostly the same roster they put on the field in 2020. As part of his season-ending comments, Hall stated that there was “no indication that anyone wants to make changes as a result of this year. I also think it’s so difficult to judge the performance of either leadership or the majority of the players in such a short and strange season.” 

Although those words probably weren’t music to Diamondbacks’ fans ears, perhaps they can take solace in knowing this was a team that won a respectable 85 games just two years ago. However, they’re undoubtedly facing an uphill climb if they want to break their three-year playoff drought in 2021.

Explaining The Pitching Stats Used At MLBTR

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MLBTR has been around for 15 years, and in that time the statistics we use to evaluate players have continually evolved.  Today we’re going to discuss the pitching stats we’ll be using moving forward.

I’ve been contemplating moving away from K/9 and BB/9 to K% and BB% for a while now, a switch you might have noticed in my Top 50 Free Agents post.  As many have noted in recent years, it just makes more sense to look at strikeouts as a percentage of batters faced rather than use innings as the denominator.

The problem with strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) is its interaction with the pitcher’s hits and walks allowed.  Imagine a reliever who goes three innings, giving up six hits and six walks while also striking out three batters.  Because of all the hits and walks, he faces 15 batters in total.  His K/9 is 9.0.  Every hit and walk extended the inning and gave him a fresh opportunity for a strikeout.  His K% is 20% (three strikeouts out of 15 batters), which is subpar.

Imagine a different reliever who goes three innings, strikes out three, and retires the other six batters.  His K/9 is 9.0.  His K% is 33.3 (three strikeouts per nine batters), which is good.

K/9, BB/9, and K/BB served us well for a long time.  They are by no means terrible, and most of us know the benchmarks better.  But when something better comes along that isn’t difficult to understand and makes more intuitive sense to use, then it’s time to rip off the Band-Aid and start using it.  That’s why we’ll be using K%, BB%, and K-BB% at MLBTR moving forward.  To get a feel for the benchmarks, check out this handy chart, reprinted with permission from our friends at Baseball HQ.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

In 2020, the top-20 starting pitchers had a K% of at least 25, a BB% below about 7, and a K-BB% above about 18.  Check out the starting pitcher leaderboard here.  The top relievers strike out about 35% of batters faced, walk fewer than 5%, and have a K-BB% of at least 27.  Play around with the reliever leaderboard here.

Notes on other pitching stats you’ll see at MLBTR:

  • SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA), developed by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, is my preference over FIP or xFIP.  From what I’ve read, SIERA is the best at predicting future performance.  Check out the 2020 SIERA leaderboard here.
  • SwStr% (Swinging Strike Rate) is the ratio of swings and misses per pitches thrown.  It can be used to help back up strikeout rate.  Check out the leaderboard here.
  • BABIP (Batting Average On Balls In Play)
  • Groundball rate
  • We’ll be using Statcast metrics at times, which are explained at the bottom of this page.
  • I’m not a huge fan of WAR, especially in smaller samples, but it’s useful at times, widely recognized, and can be hard to ignore.  It’s something I hope to unpack and reconsider when time allows.
  • Don’t worry.  We’re not going to abandon ERA.

Pitching stats you probably won’t see at MLBTR:

  • K/9, BB/9, and K/BB for the aforementioned reasons.
  • A pitcher’s win-loss record, with the possible exception of a salary arbitration discussion.
  • WHIP, unless we’re writing about fantasy baseball.

On This Date A Year Ago, Rivals Joined Forces

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When Howie Kendrick faced off against Will Harris in game seven of the 2019 World Series, the two players presented as natural rivals.

Harris had been one of the best setup arms in all of baseball that season with a ridiculous 1.50 ERA over 68 appearances. Though his peripherals (3.15 FIP, 21% K-BB%) cast some doubt on the peerless nature of his performance, he’d been spotless in the playoffs. Just the night before, Harris surrendered a run for the first time that postseason after ten consecutive scoreless outings and an 11-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. And while public sentiment wasn’t yet presenting full-throated animosity towards the AL Champs, the Astros were a towering presence in the league on the verge of dynastic achievement – and success always breeds contempt.

Conversely, Kendrick was a 35-year-old veteran recently returned from an Achilles injury. He was so close to retiring, that he picked up photography in preparation for his life after baseball. He played for the Nationals, a team who before that season had never won a postseason series. Kendrick ended that drought with an extra-inning grand slam in the division series, and in the sequel, he earned MVP honors in Washington’s second-ever postseason series win. The Nationals weren’t the ultimate underdog, but they proved themselves the ’it’ team of 2019, and they were having a moment.

In the vacuum of those few weeks of postseason baseball, Kendrick and Harris were titans.

The rest is history. Kendrick clanked a home run off the right field foul pole, immortalizing himself in Washington DC. The Kendrick/Harris showdown proved the fourth most impactful playoff at-bat of the Wild Card Era by championship win probability added. It will be replayed in highlight reels ad infinitum.

But on this date last year, January 3rd, 2020, the Nationals announced a three-year, $24MM pact with Harris. Kendrick had already agreed to a victory tour season in Washington, giving these two rivals – like many nemeses over time – an opportunity to join forces.

It was a year to forget in Washington, however, as 2020 brought a stark contrast to the soaring highs of 2019. Harris hit the injured list with a groin injury after just two appearances, and by the time he’d make his next appearance, the champs had already fallen to 7-10, well on their way to a last place finish in the NL East. Kendrick fared no better, twice spending time on the injured list and finishing the year with a .275/.320/.375 line, a year-over-year drop from 146 wRC+ to 82 wRC+. Kendrick chose to retire this winter, and hard as this would be to imagine when the Nationals stormed the field at Minute Maid Park to celebrate the 2019 World Series, it’s Harris – not Kendrick – who will don the Curly W in 2021.

Ultimately, Harris hasn’t yet had the opportunity to prove himself the vital bullpen cog the Nationals expected when they signed him a year ago. Like many Nats, his numbers were down in 2020: 5.22 xERA, 4.55 FIP, a ballooned 10.7 BB%, 46.3 HardHit%, and 91.7 mph exit velocity, all three of which were easily career-worst marks. Much of 2020, however, can be chalked up to the bizarre circumstances of the coronavirus-affected, truncated season. He’ll have a clean slate in 2021 and the opportunity to once again flip the script in his eventful history with the Nationals.

Two Years Ago, The Twins Signed An Elite Hitter

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Today marks the two-year anniversary of the Twins announcing a free agent deal with Nelson Cruz. The then-38-year-old received a one-year, $14.3MM guarantee with a $12MM club option covering the 2020 season.

At the time, Cruz was coming off an incredible four-year run with the Mariners. He had hit .284/.362/.546 during his time in Seattle. By measure of weighted runs created plus, the slugger was the sport’s eighth-most productive hitter between 2015-18 (minimum 600 plate appearances). Nevertheless, Cruz’s age and lack of defensive value as a full-time designated hitter limited him to a single year guarantee.

After a surprising Wild Card berth in 2017, the Twins slumped to a 78-84 season in 2018. Surely, the front office hoped that signing Cruz would install an elite bat into the middle of the order and help Minnesota’s lineup emerge as one of the best in the league. That’s precisely how things played out.

If anything, the already-great Cruz took his offensive game to another level in 2019. He hit a career-best .311/.392/.639 with 41 home runs in just 521 plate appearances. As a team, Minnesota slugged a record 307 homers that year en route to an AL Central title. That made exercising the 2020 option a no-brainer. Cruz again mashed at an elite level and helped the Twins to their second consecutive division championship this past season.

Now 40 years old, Cruz is again a free agent, facing the same questions he faced last time he was on the open market (and the time before that). He offers nothing defensively and is among the oldest players in the sport. Yet Cruz has shown no signs of decline at the plate; on the contrary, he’s coming off arguably the two best offensive seasons of his career.

Another deal between the Twins and Cruz makes plenty of sense. Minnesota again looks like one of the best teams in the American League, although the pursuit of another division title looks more difficult than ever thanks to the White Sox’s emergence as a legitimate contender. The past two division crowns haven’t led to any postseason success, which the Twins no doubt hope to change in 2021.  The parties have remained in contact this winter. No deal has come together to this point amidst uncertainty about whether the DH will expand to the National League, which would obviously open up Cruz’s market.

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