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Arbitration Breakdown: Francisco Lindor

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Over the coming days, I am discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2020 projections are available right here.

Francisco Lindor enters his second year of arbitration eligibility coming off a $10.55MM salary in 2019, yet another solid campaign. Lindor hit .284 with 32 home runs and 74 runs batted in, stole 22 bases, and accumulated 654 plate appearances on the way to his fourth straight All-Star appearance and his second Gold Glove. My model projects Lindor earn $16.7MM, good for a $6.15MM raise.

It is very difficult to find comparable players for the talented shortstop. Looking for middle infielders from the past half-decade who hit 25 home runs going into their second year of eligibility provides only two names. Both players are second basemen and have much weaker cases than Lindor. In 2017, Jonathan Schoop batted .293 with 32 home runs and 105 runs batted in, stealing just a single base. The same year, Scooter Gennett hit .295 with 27 homers, 97 runs batted in and just three stolen bases. They got raises of $5.0 and $3.2 million, respectively. Considering Lindor stole way more stolen bases and plays a more premium position, he clearly has a better case. He should earn north of the $5MM raise that Schoop received three years ago.

Looking for a shortstop is clearly not a fruitful endeavor, though. The largest ever raise for a second-time-eligible shortstop was $2.83MM for Brandon Crawford in 2016. But he only hit .256, belted just 21 home runs, and stole a mere six bases. His case then was clearly inferior to Lindor’s now.

If we expand to look at other positions beyond the middle infield, some other potential names emerge. George Springer got a two-year deal when he had a similar .283/34/85 performance two seasons ago—although only with five stolen bases—but he had filed for a $6.6MM raise, while the Astros offered a $4.6MM increase. His two-year agreement probably assumes the midpoint. If nothing else, the $4.6MM figure is a floor if Schoop’s $5 million was not.

Justifying the model’s estimate of a $6.15MM raise is harder. But some of the players who have landed raises in that neighborhood had stronger performances. Khris Davis got a $5.5MM raise two years ago after belting 43 home runs and knocking in 110 runs. Davis hit at his standard .247 clip, but his power numbers may make him a ceiling for Lindor. Of course, the positional adjustment is hard. Marcell Ozuna picked up a $5.5MM raise in 2018, too, after he hit .312/37/124 as an outfielder. Still, one could argue that Lindor’s .284/32/74 line is inferior.

I think that somewhere between $5MM and $5.5MM is a reasonable guess for Lindor, which would put him around $15.5MM to $16MM. The model is clearly struggling to find where Lindor’s salary as is, just like we have done in this article, but I do think it landed high.

Arbitration Breakdown: Jonathan Villar

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Over the coming days, I am discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2020 projections are available right here.

Jonathan Villar is projected for a hefty raise in his third year of arbitration eligibility in 2019, thanks to a significant improvement over his performance the prior two years.  Villar hit for a career-high 24 home runs and 73 runs batted in last season, while also hitting .274 and stealing 40 bases.  Villar appeared in all 162 of the Orioles’ games, accumulating 714 plate appearances.  After Villar earned $4.825MM in 2019, my model projects him to more than double that amount, with a $5.575MM raise to a $10.4MM salary for 2020.  However, there really are not many useful comparables to work with in Villar’s case.

Very few players with Villar’s service time have similar profiles in terms of home runs and stolen bases. There is only one such player who had more than half as many of each in the last five years — Eduardo Nunez, who also stole 40 bases and hit 16 home runs back in 2016, while batting .288 and knocking in 67 runs over 141 games and 595 PA.  Other than VIllar’s eight extra home runs, Nunez does look similar, albeit with fewer plate appearances (119 less than Villar) and games played (21 less).  Nunez only got a $2.7MM raise, so add in some inflation and the effect of the extra home runs and extra games, and maybe Villar could get close to a $4MM raise, but that is still far short of the model’s $5.575MM raise estimate.

Looking for players with over 700 PA in the last two years, we find Cesar Hernandez from last year and Charlie Blackmon from two years ago, though Blackmon isn’t a comparable since his case relies more on overall hitting numbers than power and speed (.331 average, 34 homers, 104 RBI, 14 steals for Blackmon in 2017).  Hernandez got a $2.65MM raise last offseason coming off a 2018 campaign that saw him post a .253 average, 15 home runs, and 60 RBI, to go along with 19 steals.  This is an obvious floor for Villar, as he should clearly exceed this range.

Also from last year, Didi Gregorius may be a more realistic floor for Villar. He got a $3.5MM raise after hitting .268 with 27 HR and 86 RBI — all similar to Villar — but only stealing 10 bases.  Of course, Gregorius only had 569 PA, far less than Villar’s 714 PA.  Villar should certainly clear $3.5MM as well.

My best guess is Villar gets a raise of around $4MM to $4.5MM.  The model may be estimating high because it is rewarding him heavily for his 714 plate appearances.  Although the model has clearly established that the average effect of more plate appearances really compounds, there may be exceptions in cases like these.  I do not think Villar reaches the $5.575MM raise estimate, so he should land closer to $9MM than the $10.4MM the model forecast.

MLBTR Originals

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It’s a new year, but MLBTR is bringing you the same up-to-the-minute transaction news and market evaluation. Lest there be a lull in the action, the MLBTR staff occasionally puts out original content. Let’s take a minute to gather that material and make sure you aren’t missing a beat. Here is some of the original content from MLBTR writers over the past week…

 

Arbitration Breakdown: Josh Bell

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Over the coming days, I am discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2020 projections are available right here.

Josh Bell established himself as a formidable power hitter just in time for his platform year, leading into his first time through the arbitration process. The first baseman hit 37 home runs and knocked in 116 while batting .277—all career highs. Despite being a far less productive hitter prior to 2019, Bell still accumulated some decent career numbers as well thanks to playing full-time for three consecutive seasons. He totaled 78 home runs and 287 RBIs, along with a .265 average. My model projects Bell to earn $5.9 million his first time through arbitration.

The model does not explicitly pick comparables when generating its projection, but it will logically place Bell near some of his most similar hitters while compensating for some salary inflation. Bell’s arbitration case is pretty well-established—he is a hitter who had an elite power year in his platform with solid but non-elite performance prior to that.

Ideally, a comparable player is somebody who plays the same position. But looking for hitters who already play first base full-time before reaching arbitration is challenging.

Chris Carter had similar power numbers when he entered arbitration in 2015, but a far inferior batting average and was also a DH for most of his platform season. He earned $4.18MM after hitting 37 home runs and knocking in 88 his platform season, a totaling 85 HR and 216 RBI in his career. But his platform batting average was only .227 and his career average was .222. This is obviously a likely floor for Bell, who five years later has bested Carter in each of these categories.

Wil Myers obviously played a few positions by the time he entered arbitration in 2017, but commonly played first base. He hit .259 with 28 home runs and 94 runs batted in during his platform year, but stole 28 bases. He only hit 55 home runs in his career though, far less than Bell’s 78. So Myers’ $4.5MM salary seems likely to be low as well.

If we expand to other positions on the diamond, I can find four other infielders in the last five years who hit at least 30 home runs in their platform year and batted at least .250, but did not have 90 home runs in their career, putting them in a similar position to Bell. Each of the four players earned between $5.0MM and $5.2MM and has similarities to Bell.

Last season, Javier Baez entered arbitration with a .290/34/111 platform but stole 21 bases, and had .267/81/269 career numbers to go along with 49 steals. The numbers are certainly similar to Bell, if a little bit better, and Baez plays a harder position. Baez’s $5.2 million could be a benchmark for determining Bell’s 2020 earnings.

Trevor Story also had a similar case going into last season, with a .291/37/108 line in his platform year, and a .268/88/262 line for his career. Story plays a harder position and steals bases at a regular clip as well—27 in his platform year. Story’s $5.0MM could also be a solid benchmark for Bell.

Going back to 2016, we also find a couple third basemen with similar batting numbers to Bell. Both Manny Machado and Nolan Arenado got $5.0MM. Machado hit .286/35/86 platform and .281/68/215 career, while Arenado had a .287/42/130 platform and a .281/70/243 career. Machado had stolen 20 bases in his platform as well. Both arguably had better cases than Bell, but being four years old, these cases are a bit stale.

I think that the model could be a little high on Bell, projecting him for $5.9MM when he may land closer to $5.0MM. It is clear that he should outearn other recent first basemen who got salaries in the low-to-mid $4MM range, but not clear enough that some of the 3B and SS who earned $5.0MM to $5.2MM have weaker cases at all. Salary inflation could push him past them, but I suspect he will land right around $5 million.

Top 10 Remaining Free Agents

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Free agency has moved much quicker this winter compared to the previous couple offseasons. MLBTR ranked the top 50 players on the market at the beginning of November, and the majority of them have already found new deals. Two more familiar names came off the board Thursday with reliever Will Harris agreeing to join the Nationals and catcher Jason Castro heading to the Angels. There are still some stragglers from our top 50, though, so with January underway, let’s use that list to check in on the 10 highest-ranked players available…

5. Josh Donaldson, 3B (original prediction: three years, $75MM)

  • Donaldson’s the lone free agent left with an elite track record. Even at 34 years old, he could command a four-year contract approaching $100MM. The Braves (his previous team), Nationals, Twins, Dodgers, Phillies and Rangers are among the teams that have shown interest in Donaldson this winter. Donaldson’s choice figures to affect the trade market, as the clubs that lose out on him could become more motivated to pursue the Cubs’ Kris Bryant or the Rockies’ Nolan Arenado.

8. Nicholas Castellanos, OF (original prediction: four years, $58MM)

  • The Cubs would still like to re-sign Castellanos, but their aversion to the luxury tax could prevent that from happening. The crosstown rival White Sox, not to mention the Rangers and Giants, have also shown recent interest in the big-hitting 27-year-old.

11. Marcell Ozuna, OF (original prediction: three years, $45MM)

  • Ozuna’s saddled by a qualifying offer, but that hasn’t stopped interest from pouring in. The 29-year-old’s most recent team, the Cardinals, as well as the Reds and Rangers are reportedly the leading candidates to sign him.

28. Daniel Hudson, RP (original prediction: two years, $12MM)

  • Harris could replace Hudson in Washington, but the latter has replaced the former as the No. 1-ranked reliever without a deal. Hudson was one of the many heroes for the Nationals during their World Series-winning campaign in 2019, and multiple teams have reportedly been willing to offer him multiyear deals as a result. The hard-throwing 32-year-old hasn’t found one to his liking, though.

33. Robinson Chirinos, C (original prediction: two years, $10MM)

  • Chirinos’ stay in free agency may be on the verge of ending, as he seems to be nearing a decision on where to sign. The 35-year-old has been a popular free agent this offseason, and that’s understandable when considering how effective he has been at the plate throughout his career.

35. Craig Stammen, RP (original prediction: two years, $10MM)

  • While there was lots of interest in Stammen during last month’s Winter Meetings, it’s been radio silence in terms of rumors since then. But the 35-year-old brings an enticing mix of effectiveness and durability to the table. Dating back to 2017, Stammen has averaged 80 innings per season, put up a 50.6 percent groundball rate and recorded a 3.06 ERA/3.57 FIP. Stammen also walked fewer than 1.7 batters per nine a season ago and saw his average fastball velocity rise to a career-high 92.8 mph, though it’s worth noting his swinging-strike rate plummeted about 5 percent from 2018 to ’19.

36. Steve Cishek, RP (original prediction: two years, $10MM)

  • Cishek reportedly hopes to sign with the Red Sox, but it’s up in the air whether they’re willing to meet the Massachusetts native’s asking price. Whether it’s Boston or someone else, the team that lands Cishek will be adding a hurler who has somewhat quietly enjoyed an excellent career. The soft-tossing, sidearming Cishek, 33, has registered a sub-3.00 ERA in seven of his nine full seasons, including last year with the Cubs. Although Cishek’s strikeout and walk rates in 2019 didn’t impress (8.02 K/9, 4.08 BB/9), he induced grounders at a 50 percent clip and thrived at limiting hard contact, ranking in Statcast’s 99th percentile in average exit velocity against and hard-hit rate.

37. Yasiel Puig, OF (original prediction: one year, $8MM)

  • Puig’s still just 29 years old and has starred in the past, but he’s having a hard time on the market after a down season divided between Cincinnati and Cleveland. Those teams haven’t shown any reported interest in bringing Puig back, and the clubs that have been connected to him (the Marlins and White Sox) have gone in other directions to address their needs.

39. Alex Wood, LHP (original prediction: one year, $8MM)

  • Another Red from 2019, Wood’s the sole starter on this list. Although the 28-year-old had a quality run between the Braves and Dodgers from 2013-18, he hit the market at an inopportune time. Back problems largely kept Wood off the mound last season, and during the 35 2/3 innings he did pitch, he slumped to a 5.80 ERA/6.38 FIP.

41. Brock Holt, UTIL (original prediction: two years, $8MM)

  • Reported interest in Holt has been scarce, even though he’s coming off a nice run in Boston. While the 31-year-old possesses very little power, he has proved capable of mixing roughly league-average offensive production with defensive versatility. Holt saw action at six different positions (mostly second base) last season.

Free Agent Faceoff: Wood Vs. Walker

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The market for starting pitchers has shrunk substantially since free agency opened at the beginning of November. Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Dallas Keuchel and Cole Hamels have all found contracts. Jake Odorizzi, whom MLBTR ranked as the game’s 10th-best free agent at the outset of the winter, accepted a qualifying offer from Minnesota. The Twins also re-signed Michael Pineda and just picked up two more starters in Rich Hill and Homer Bailey.

With all of those pitchers and several others (Kyle Gibson, Tanner Roark and Julio Teheran, to name some) off the board, it looks like a pretty bare-bones group at this point. So, if you’re still banking on finding a No. 1, 2 or 3 type of starter in free agency, you may be out of luck. Even a surefire No. 4 or 5 seems like a lot to ask right now, but there are at least a few unsigned starters with upside who won’t cost a bank-breaking amount to sign. Left-hander Alex Wood and righty Taijuan Walker are two examples.

Between Wood and Walker, the former wins this battle in a landslide as far as major league track record goes. The 28-year-old flew under the radar to some degree from 2013-18, an 803 1/3-inning stretch in which he combined for a sterling 3.29 ERA/3.36 FIP with 8.27 K/9, 2.57 BB/9 and a 49.5 percent groundball rate with the Braves and Dodgers. Thanks to that run, the Reds acquired Wood last offseason with the expectation he’d give them front-line production. Instead, though, back problems limited the relatively soft-tossing Wood to seven starts and 35 2/3 frames of 5.80 ERA/6.38 FIP ball.  Since then, there hasn’t been any reported interest on MLBTR’s pages in Wood, who has quickly gone from coveted starter to buy-low candidate.

Walker’s in a similar position – someone who could be a high-reward pickup at a reasonable cost. Now 27, Walker was an extremely hyped prospect with Seattle, which chose him 43rd overall in 2017. However, Walker didn’t prove to be irreplaceable to the Mariners over a fairly small sample of action, and they wound up trading him to the Diamondbacks in a late-2016 blockbuster.

Walker and his ~94 mph fastball were quite effective in his first season in Arizona – 3.49 ERA/4.04 FIP with 8.35 K/9, 3.5 BB/9 and a 48.9 percent grounder rate in 157 1/3 innings – but he has barely pitched since. He tossed 13 innings in 2018 before undergoing Tommy John surgery that May, and totaled just one frame last season (in the D-backs’ final game) after shoulder injuries stunted his TJS recovery. Arizona then cut Walker loose via non-tender instead of paying him a projected $5MM-plus in arbitration. Since then, at least one team – Walker’s old employer in Seattle – has shown interest in signing him.

Walker and Wood appear as if they’d be sensible additions for the Mariners or any other team that wants to take a back-of-the-rotation risk on a short-term deal. Odds are that neither player will secure a multiyear guarantee, though a one-season contract with a club option for 2021 could be a worthwhile gamble. Wood seems likely to rake in more money (MLBTR predicted he’d get a one-year, $8MM pact), but does that make him a better bet than Walker? Which of the two would you sign?

(Poll link for app users)

The All-Decade Lineup

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Another decade just concluded, which makes this an opportune time to review baseball’s best players at each position over the prior 10 years. This is certainly a debatable topic, and it’s just one person’s opinion, so feel free to make any disagreements known in the comments section below…

Catcher: Buster Posey, Giants

  • Father Time has seemingly caught up with Posey in recent seasons, but it doesn’t diminish the 32-year-old’s overall excellence. From 2010-19, he was an instrumental member of three World Series-winning Giants teams, an NL MVP winner and a six-time All-Star. Posey slashed .302/.371/.458 with 140 home runs and 53.0 fWAR during that span, potentially putting himself on a Hall of Fame course.

First base: Joey Votto, Reds

  • Votto – now 36 and in the twilight of his career – should go down as one of the greatest and most intelligent hitters in the history of the game. He ran roughshod over pitchers throughout the prior decade, batting .306/.428/.516 with 231 homers and 48.0 fWAR, and joined Posey in earning six All-Star nods and an NL MVP.

Second base: Jose Altuve, Astros

  • Hey, another six-time All-Star and a former MVP. But unlike Posey and Votto, who have faded of late, Altuve’s still a high-end performer. The diminutive 29-year-old’s fresh off his sixth straight outstanding season after beginning his career as a fairly non-threatening hitter. Between 2014-19, Altuve hit .327/.380/.497 with 114 dingers and helped his team to a championship. He ranked fourth in the majors in fWAR (32.4) and fifth in stolen bases (179) during that span.

Shortstop: Francisco Lindor, Indians

  • Mr. Smile has been the focus of significant trade speculation over the past couple months, which tends to happen when you’re an elite player who seems unwilling to sign an extension with a small-market club. Regardless of where Lindor plays in the future, there’s no denying the four-time All-Star has an incredible past. Lindor, 26, has posted a .288/.347/.493 line with 130 homers, 93 steals and 27.2 fWAR since he debuted in 2015.

Third base: Josh Donaldson, Free Agent

  • Fresh off a tremendous several years, the 34-year-old Donaldson’s now the No. 1 free agent on the market. Donaldson rose to prominence as a member of the Athletics in 2014 and has since played for three other teams (the Blue Jays, Indians and Braves). Between his breakout campaign and last season, the Bringer of Rain finished third among position players in fWAR (33.3), hit .272/.374/.524 with 185 homers, picked up three All-Star bids and took home an AL MVP.

Outfield: Mike Trout, Angels; Mookie Betts, Red Sox; Andrew McCutchen, Phillies

  • Was there any doubt Trout would make this list? He’s a three-time MVP at the age of 28, easily the best player of last decade and someone who could quit right now and go down as one of the preeminent players the sport has ever seen. The rest of the outfield’s more debatable, but Betts and McCutchen made strong cases over the past few years. They’re each ex-MVPs who have been among a handful of elite performers for about half a decade. Most of McCutchen’s success came as a member of the Pirates, but he has become more of a complementary player with the Giants, Yankees and Phillies over the past couple seasons.

Designated hitter: David Ortiz, Retired

  • You’re well within your rights to want, say, the ageless Nelson Cruz here, but I’ll take the now-retired Ortiz – one of the most feared hitters and one of its premier big-game hitters throughout his career. From 2010 until his retirement in 2016, Big Papi was a five-time All-Star, a two-time champion and a one-time World Series MVP. Ortiz slashed .292/.383/.562 and swatted 224 HRs in that span before saying goodbye to the game. Even in his final season, his age-40-campaign, Ortiz was a force at the plate.

Poll: Will Cubs End Up Trading A Star?

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When the Cubs came up short of the postseason this year, it broke a string of four consecutive appearances. It also prompted the organization to prepare for some major changes. To this point, we’ve heard lots of chatter featuring the team’s biggest stars as trade candidates. But no real change … yet.

It’s a bit of a curious situation. By all indications, the Cubs have reached the internal decision to get under the luxury tax line. There are clear financial incentives for teams to do so, at least every few seasons, to duck the biggest monetary penalties under the current CBA. But … now? After assembling this long-awaited core? And after signing Craig Kimbrel six months ago, in the middle of the season?

We’ve been led to believe that the Cubs baseball operations department feels it must explore deals involving its best players because it simply doesn’t have authorization to spend otherwise. And the status quo isn’t optimal for 2020 or beyond. That situation is rather difficult to square strategically with the Kimbrel signing, which occupied all of the team’s remaining flexibility. But perhaps ownership decided on this course more recently. The team is facing major Wrigley renovation cost overruns, albeit possibly of their own making.

Whatever the background, the situation remains: if the Cubs wish to change their roster, so far as we can discern, it’ll have to come via trade. The Cubs could try to shave some salary associated with the ill-fated Jason Heyward, Tyler Chatwood, and Daniel Descalso deals, though that doesn’t figure to be easy and would cost prospect capital to pull off. With a farm system already picked over for prior additions, any major overhaul will almost certainly require the departure of quite a significant player.

Javier Baez seems more like an extension target than a trade candidate, but we’ve heard loads of talk about Kris Bryant (at least, once his grievance is resolved). Willson Contreras was in the news quite a bit earlier in the winter. Yu Darvish doesn’t seem inclined to waive his no-trade rights, but could Jose Quintana be discussed? Or even Kyle Hendricks? Kyle Schwarber would no doubt be made available in some scenarios. And the team evidently isn’t seeing eye to eye with first baseman Anthony Rizzo; might there be a chance he’s moved?

At this point, we don’t really have great reason to think any particular player is likely to be sent out. Bryant and Contreras certainly occupy in-demand positions, but there hasn’t been a strong rumor indicating that a swap is approaching. We haven’t even heard specific rumors on all of the players listed above, but can the Cubs really take anyone off the table at this point?

There’s still loads of uncertainty, so it’s a good time to ask for everyone’s best guesses. So … will they make a deal? (Poll link for app users.)

And which player is likeliest to be moved? (Poll link for app users. Response order randomized.)

Taking Stock Of The Center Field Market

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We’ve glanced in at a few areas of the player market to see what’s left after a busy first few months of the offseason. With a New Year’s freeze in effect on the news cycle, let’s do the same for the center field market.

The lack of supply sufficient to meet the demand up the middle has been evident from the time the 2019 season drew to a close. It’s still a notable factor as the calendar flips. If Shogo Akiyama and the Reds formalize their reported agreement, he’ll follow Brett Gardner off of the market and we’ll be fresh out of remaining top-50 free agents with significant experience up the middle.

We still haven’t seen especially robust chatter surrounding Starling Marte of the Pirates, perhaps in part due to the fact that the organization made a late front office change. But with two reasonably priced but not cheap seasons of control remaining, and the Bucs facing a very tough path to contention in 2020, the time feels ripe for a trade.

You’ll have a tough time finding an alternative with Marte’s ability. But there are a few creative options for teams that really want to install major piece — and are willing to pay through the nose. Whit Merrifield of the Royals and Mitch Haniger of the Mariners have seen some action up the middle, though their primary positions are elsewhere. Both figure to come with very lofty price tags, if they’re available at all.

The Red Sox remain an interesting source of center field options. With the club looking to dip under the luxury tax line, and new chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom bringing a fresh look at the entire organization, it’s conceivable that the team would discuss any player — including superstar Mookie Betts and first-year arb-eligible Andrew Benintendi. Both players have appeared primarily in the corners but are surely capable of lining up in center. They’ll also be quite difficult to pry loose.

Much more achievable is incumbent Boston center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. He’s arguably the top rental trade candidate; with a projected $11MM arb price tag, it shouldn’t take much of a return to get him. That price point may lead some interested clubs to free agency. Kevin Pillar, non-tendered by the Giants, should be available for less. While his overall defensive value has faded a bit, and his power overshadows long-standing on-base trouble, he’s about as valuable a hitter as Bradley has been in recent years.

Other, yet more expensive trade candidates include A.J. Pollock and Dexter Fowler. Both are playing on long-term contracts with multiple years remaining. Teams won’t be interested in taking over the full obligations, but that doesn’t make deals unimaginable. Both are still capable players. The former comes with greater injury risk and a bigger overall commitment. The latter hasn’t spent much time up the middle in recent years and has lagged at the plate. Pricier still is Lorenzo Cain. He’s still an elite defender but had a rough offensive season in 2019. It seems the Brewers are at least willing to consider trade scenarios, though there hasn’t been any evident traction.

There are some younger, lower-salaried conceivable trade targets. But they generally still have places on their current teams. That could change as the market resolves. It’s not impossible to imagine deals involving Kevin Kiermaier (Rays), Ender Inciarte (Braves), Manuel Margot (Padres), Albert Almora (Cubs), Mallex Smith (Mariners), or Michael A. Taylor (Nationals). But their respective teams will have to have alternative plans lined up before making moves, if they have any such intentions at all. Of those players, the glove-first Kiermaier and Inciarte are the most established. Both are under control for some time on affordable but increasingly expensive extensions. They’re each also looking to rebound from injury plagued seasons. Also of note: the Akiyama deal could free the Reds to trade Nick Senzel, though perhaps other teams would consider moving him back into the infield.

It’s awfully tough to see any remaining players on the open market as even semi-regular players on a contender. Free agent Cameron Maybin is perhaps the top option after a resurgent campaign with the bat. His deeper recent track record at the plate isn’t as promising and he’s probably not a plus glove up the middle at this stage of his career. Jon Jay, Jarrod Dyson, Billy Hamilton, Leonys Martin, Guillermo Heredia, and Juan Lagares will all be looking for bounceback opportunities in a reserve/platoon role. Some or all will likely settle for minor-league agreements. Otherwise, the market is limited to journeyman veterans like Peter Bourjos, Rajai Davis, and Carlos Gomez.

There is one other player that must be mentioned. It is unknown as yet what the Phillies plan to do with outfielder Odubel Herrera, who was suspended after a terrible domestic violence incident but remains under contract on similar terms to Inciarte. By collectively bargained rule, the Phillies cannot take further punitive measure against Herrera now that he’s reinstated. But the Philadelphia organization (and others) may not wish to put Herrera in their uniform. Teams will surely not view him solely through a baseball lens.

The Most Notable Trades Of The Past Decade

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Ten years ago (if you can believe it), MLBTR standard-setter Ben Nicholson-Smith ran an awesome series looking back at the most notable deals of the prior decade. We have fallen short of the typically lofty BN-S mark, but didn’t want to pass up on an opportunity to round up the biggest swaps of the ensuing ten-year span with the new year upon us.

So, in this post we’ll categorize and cover the most notable aspects of the biggest trades of the past decade. If you want to re-live them in full, follow the links at each title.

Mammoth Contract Swaps

These deals are notable for their sheer scale, in terms of the volume of players and the dollars changing hands.

The August Coastal Blockbuster

Two behemoth teams. Mammoth contracts. This one set the course for the Dodgers and Red Sox for years to come. The Los Angeles organization fell short in the NL West in the year of the swap (2012) but has owned it ever since, with Adrian Gonzalez and Josh Beckett (less so Carl Crawford) helping to set the course. While the prospects added in return didn’t amount to much, the Red Sox used the re-set to vault into a World Series crown in 2013.

And in the ensuing years? The Hollywood Dodgers have turned into a finely tuned, disciplined machine that eschews just these kinds of deals. The Red Sox tired a bit of their own analytics and went old school for a stretch, resulting in another World Series win … followed by a step back to finish off a roller-coaster decade. After Boston’s latest leadership swap, both teams’ baseball operations departments are run by former Rays executives.

Fish Off The Hook

If the Sox have put their fans through a coaster ride, the Marlins of the past decade have been one of those stomach-churning drop towers. Long, slow buildups to an expected payoff that turns out to be disappointing … if not downright unpleasant. The late-2012 deal with the Blue Jays was emblematic. As part of part of the generally craven Marlins Park scheme, the Jeffrey Loria-owned Marlins went big in free agency but turned in a complete dud. No worries. The Jays were there to bail them out.

This deal is that actually worked quite well for the Marlins in retrospect. Their MLB roster lost many of its big names — Josh Johnson, Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle (plus Emilio Bonifacio and John Buck) — but was also relieved of some onerous salary obligations. And the swap brought in a host of affordable, useful pieces. Every single player in this trade would ultimately be a big leaguer, in fact. None of the Marlins’ acquisitions (Henderson Alvarez, Anthony DeSclafani, Yunel Escobar, Adeiny Hechavarria, Jake Marisnick, Jeff Mathis) turned into stars, but most had productive stretches and many are still active.

Unfortunately, the Marlins never really proved capable of capitalizing on the surplus value, due in some part to ensuing trades. They immediately flipped Escobar, shipped Marisnick as part of a multi-player deal with the Astros, and sent DeSclafani out for Mat Latos. (This isn’t the last time we’ll hear from the Marlins or Latos.) The Fish also dumped Heath Bell that winter, another of the players signed the prior winter. This swap also connected to a few other memorable deals on the Toronto side. It was the precursor to the Jays’ acquisition of R.A. Dickey from the Mets later that winter (link), which cost the Toronto organization Noah Syndergaard and Travis d’Arnaud. And Reyes ended up being sent out in another highly memorable deal for Troy Tulowitzki (link).

Even Bigger Fish

Fresh off a sale of the team, the Marlins auctioned off all three of their star outfielders — Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, and Christian Yelich — in the 2017-18 offseason. While this list is going to focus on individual deals for the most part, it makes sense to think about this series of swaps as parts of a whole.

Any follower of the baseball hot stove will remember the Stanton trade as much or more for its build-up than its end result. The prodigious slugger held full no-trade rights, thus launching a highly unusual process in which he met in person with multiple teams (the Cardinals and Giants) before spurning them. Stanton wanted the Dodgers, but the L.A. org had already transitioned to a new-school approach and wouldn’t give up enough in prospects and/or take on enough in salary to facilitate a deal. Sensing an opportunity, the Yankees stepped in.

Once again, the Marlins may ultimately be proven wise to have moved a big contract … though again, that primarily reflects the questionable initial decision to sign it. The Miami organization was forced to eat cash (in the form of the Starlin Castro contract and $30MM in obligations that’ll be owed if Stanton doesn’t opt out next winter) to move … a mid-prime player fresh off of a National League MVP award. It’s possible the Fish will get something out of the young players acquired, Jorge Guzman and Jose Devers, and the contract flexibility is great, but this one goes down as another head-scratcher when viewed in the broadest context. (It also connects to some other major swaps, as we’ll explore below.)

From the Yanks’ side, it remains to be seen if Stanton can get back on track and deliver what the team hoped he would. He was injured for most of 2019 after a good but not great first campaign in New York. The swap installed a big salary that has impacted the future roster-building efforts of the disciplined (but still big-spending) behemoth. The Stanton pact may have tempered the team’s already less-than-robust interest in Bryce Harper and Manny Machado last winter, but didn’t stop the organization from stepping up to get the star it really wanted — Gerrit Cole — to kick off the new decade.

Somewhat surprisingly, the Miami club may have picked up its best pieces in the swap that sent Ozuna to the Cardinals. Young hurlers Sandy Alcantara and Zac Gallen have both shown early promise at the MLB level. The latter was cashed in over the trade deadline for prospect Jazz Chisholm. The third part of the return, Daniel Castano, had nice numbers last year at Double-A.

The most notable of the three swaps may end up being the Yelich disaster. This one would’ve fit in some of the other categories below, for reasons that will become obvious as you read them. Yelich has morphed from a very good hitter into an absolute monster over two seasons in Milwaukee, leading the National League in OPS with machine-like even numbers of 1.000 (2018) and 1.100 (2019). The real shame from the Marlins’ perspective is that they had the foresight to lock Yelich up to a contract that still has three affordable seasons of control remaining. The Brewers are the beneficiaries. There’s still hope that the Marlins will get some value out of the return they got for Yelich — outfielders Lewis Brinson and Monte Harrison, infielder Isan Diaz, and righty Jordan Yamamoto — but the initial returns haven’t been especially promising and certainly don’t come close to the immense surplus value created by Yelich.

Young Stars

They say there’s nothing more valuable than a mid-prime, cost-controlled star. So … what does one fetch in an active trade market?

JD From A’s To Jays

Oof. This one felt strained out of the gates and just never aged well for the A’s. Josh Donaldson reached new heights upon moving to the Jays, delivering the Toronto org huge value throughout his arbitration years. On the other side? It was a volume play with a long-term upside element, but the ledger doesn’t come close to balancing on paper. Brett Lawrie fell apart in Oakland, Kendall Graveman was a solid arm but ended up hurt, and Sean Nolin didn’t contribute much. It all hinges on Franklin Barreto, who hasn’t yet caught on in the majors but has shredded Triple-A pitching and is still just 23 years of age.

Greinke Goes North

This swap, from the very beginning of the epoch under consideration, has a better vibe for all sides. The acquisition of Zack Greinke helped the Brewers to a 96-win 2011 season. While things went south for the team in the ensuing campaign, they were able to ship him out for Jean Segura at the 2012 trade deadline. On the Royals side, while it hurt to part with their staff ace, the deal helped complete the picture for the eventual World Series-winning 2015 outfit by delivering Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, Jeremy Jeffress, and Jake Odorizzi. (Cain has since returned to the Brewers via free agency; we’ll hear more on Odorizzi below.)

Sale For Sale

There’s nothing like an unfolding Winter Meetings drama, and that’s just what we got when the White Sox decided to blow things up in the 2016-17 offseason. Deep in talks with the Nationals on Chris Sale — can you imagine the resulting rotation?!?! — the South Siders pivoted to the Red Sox when the Boston organization put some of its most valued young players on the table. The return featured two exceptional talents — Yoan Moncada (who turned in a breakout 2019) and Michael Kopech (who’s returning from Tommy John surgery) — who could lead the White Sox to greatness. Luis Alexander Basabe also remains a notable prospect on the Chicago farm. And the White Sox also got some of the players they had targeted from the Nats, including 2019 All-Star Lucas Giolito, when those two teams immediately shifted to a trade involving Adam Eaton. It was a big price, but it was essential to the Red Sox’ 2018 World Series winner.

Deadline Strikes

The summer trade period creates pressures … and often delivers high drama.

Closing The Curse

The ultimate go-for-broke move came from the 2016 Cubs. The roster was loaded but needed a finishing piece. And one was available … from an unlikely place. The Yankees weren’t even fully out of contention when they began talking with teams about their top-shelf closer, Aroldis Chapman, who had been acquired for a song prior to the season after his offseason arrest. (A reported move to the Dodgers was reportedly scuttled by that news.) Chapman helped the Cubs to the promised land before returning to the Yanks on a record-setting deal in the ensuing winter. For their trouble, the Yanks came away with franchise centerpiece Gleyber Torres (plus other pieces). Having moved Chapman, the Yanks were then able to run up the market for fellow left-handed relief ace Andrew Miller, who was spun off for a big return one week later … to the Cubbies’ eventual World Series competitors, the Indians.

August Stunner

You know never to declare the deadline dealing over until well after the expiration. We often see deals finished at the very last moment, with word only trickling out after the buzzer sounds. But that’s typically a phenomenon of the traditional July trade deadline — now the only trade deadline. In 2017, the August non-revocable waiver trade period delivered the fireworks. Veteran ace Justin Verlander seemed destined to stay put in Detroit, but last-minute scrambling — including JV’s decision to waive his no-trade protection — resulted in a deal to the Astros. The results were magical, as Verlander has found a whole second life in Houston and helped the team to a title. The Tigers seemingly did as well as could’ve been hoped at the time, but likely won’t end up being adequately compensated. It remains to be seen what they’ll end up getting from Franklin Perez, Daz Cameron, and Jake Rogers.

Dramatic Duo

What a flurry … it all began when reports emerged that the Mets were closing in on a deal to acquire Carlos Gomez from the Brewers. You’ll no doubt remember Wilmer Flores shedding tears on the field. Zack Wheeler was also reportedly in the deal, too. Then a kerfluffle involving Gomez’s medicals scuttled things. Quite an alternate history.

As it turned out, the Astros stepped in to land Gomez, which turned out to be a complete bust. The club also got Mike Fiers in the swap, but that was scant consolation given the price … a strong four-some of prospects that included current relief ace Josh Hader, starter Adrian Houser, and outfielders Brett Phillips and Domingo Santana. (At the time, the order of importance of those names was roughly the inverse.)

Meanwhile, the Mets pivoted … to some guy named Yoenis Cespedes. That swap may have delivered the Mets the 2015 pennant. It also came at what has at times seemed to be a steep price (Michael Fulmer). And it launched an ever-fascinating relationship with Cespedes, who has signed two free agent deals with the club, the latter of which was just renegotiated (with the team’s present GM and his former agent) after a bizarre injury.

Go For It

It’s always fun to see what happens when a team decides that NOW is the time to push for the prize. 

The Odorizzi (?) Trade

That’s not what it was at the time, but MLBTR’s Steve Adams has quipped that’s what it’d end up being in the end. There’s some truth in it, as Jake Odorizzi is right now the highest-performing player that was involved in the December 2012 swap between the Rays and Royals. At the time? It was all about the Kansas City organization making a shocking strike for James Shields, giving up top prospect Wil Myers to secure the services of the long-excellent starter. This deal didn’t really shake out as anyone expected. And we’re still feeling the aftershocks.

The Royals did get a lot of very good innings from Shields, who helped them reach the World Series in 2014 even as he was obviously on the wane. But he was gone by the time the club won its ring in 2015 … with Wade Davis, the quiet part of the Royals’ side of the swap, pitching like an absolute maniac from the bullpen. Davis carried a 0.97 ERA in 139 1/3 innings from 2014-15. He was ultimately dealt for slugger Jorge Soler.

Myers was up and down in Tampa Bay before he was traded away in another consequential deal — the three-team arrangement that netted the Rays Trea Turner, only to see him passed along to the Nationals for Steven Souza. Odorizzi ended up being quite a valuable contributor for the Rays before he, too, was traded … in a swap that seems to have fallen flat for the TB org. The Rays also added lefty Mike Montgomery in the original deal, then swapped him out for a few useful seasons of Erasmo Ramirez.

Opening Day Eve

While Craig Kimbrel had been talked about for months by the aggressive Braves, it came as a total surprise when he was dealt to the Padres just before the start of the 2015 season. The highly unusual timing was what really made this deal stand out. The primary purpose for Atlanta was to shed the contract of Melvin Upton Jr., even if it meant giving up the homegrown relief stud and taking on the dollars owed to fellow outfielders Cameron Maybin and Carlos Quentin. Kimbrel was part of a failed San Diego win-now effort. He ended up being sent along to the Red Sox in a deal that brought the Pads Manuel Margot and others … including Logan Allen, who was ultimately a piece of last summer’s three-team swap that landed the Friars a potential eventual Margot replacement in Taylor Trammell. Back to the original deal … the Braves added a solid pitching prospect who didn’t work out (Matt Wisler) and a likely inconsequential outfield prospect (Jordan Paroubeck). But they also added the 41st pick in the 2015 draft, which turned out to be still-interesting young player Austin Riley.

Snakes Pick Up Shelby After Sell By

This deal had disaster written on it from the start, but it turned out much worse than might’ve been expected. The all-in D-Backs signed Greinke and traded for Shelby Miller with visions of a glorious rotation. But the former got off to a rough start — he ultimately redeemed himself and was sent to the Astros this past summer — and the latter completely fell to pieces. The Braves, who had picked up Miller from the Cardinals for one season of Jason Heyward, made out like bandits with two strong, controllable up-the-middle players in Dansby Swanson and Ender Inciarte. Even if Swanson hasn’t been quite as awesome as might’ve been hoped, there was a load of surplus value here for the Braves.

Beautiful Disasters

There are a host of other memorable trades that have turned into forehead smackers. Many connect up to above-featured deals. The Padres’ win-now effort in 2015 began in earnest with the disastrous acquisition of Matt Kemp and his big contract in a deal that cost Yasmani Grandal. Another player added in that push by the Friars was Shields, fresh off his time in Kansas City. That deal went south quick, but the San Diego org somehow managed not only to offload most of the salary early in the 2016 season, but also to pick up current superstar Fernando Tatis Jr. from the White Sox. Oof.

The Pirates finally went for it by dealing for Chris Archer at the 2018 deadline. What seemed like a buy-low has turned into a total wreck, as Archer has scuffled while Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows have soared for the Rays.

The Marlins have a few more duds on their recent resume. Further driving home the dangers of early mid-season strikes, the Fish gave up Chris Paddack for a Fernando Rodney rental. They also lucked out when they were able to un-do a portion of a seven-player deal they struck with the Padres to add Andrew Cashner and Colin Rea. Miami sent the injured Rea back to San Diego and recouped pitching prospect Luis Castillo … only to send him out in the ensuing winter for Dan Straily. Castillo is now one of the best young pitchers in baseball. Miami wasn’t alone in misjudging him; they originally got him from the Giants as part of the return for journeyman Casey McGehee.

The Reds also made out like bandits when they got Eugenio Suarez from the Tigers for Alfredo Simon. Who can forget the series of deals that left Anthony Rizzo in Chicago? The Cubs got him from the Padres for Cashner, then an elite pitching prospect, after the Friars sent Mat Latos to the Reds for a four-player package that included first bagger Yonder Alonso, the aforementioned Grandal, and hurlers Edinson Volquez and Brad Boxberger. The Cubs got even bigger value in the 2013 deadline deal that brought in buy-low hurlers Jake Arrieta and Pedro Strop from the Orioles for Steve Clevenger and a half-season of Scott Feldman.

Honorable Mention

If there’s a lesson in all of this, it’s that what goes around comes around. The ebbs and flows, the webs of connections, the butterfly effects … it’s all part of the fun of the hot stove.

Cespedes was moved in another major summer swap, too. He went from the A’s to the Red Sox for Jon Lester and Jonny Gomes, only to be shipped out in the ensuing offseason for Rick Porcello. The Athletics pulled off another buy-side stunner when they picked up both Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel from the Cubs in a deal featuring then-top-prospect Addison Russell. Like Cespedes, Samardzija also ended up on the move again in a deal with a long tail of repercussions.

David Price is another major player dealt multiple times. He moved from the Rays to the Tigers at the 2014 deadline and then on to the Blue Jays the next summer. We’ll see whether there’s eventually a follow-up to last winter’s Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz blockbuster, which cost the Mets a lot of money and sent two significant prospects to the Mariners. If it seems unlikely Cano’s big contract could be moved twice … well, never say never. The Vernon Wells contract was traded a pair of times, first from the Jays to the Angels (for Mike Napoli) and then on to the Yankees (with the Halos eating most of the remaining salary).

The Rangers didn’t feature at all above, but did pull off a few larger swaps as well. The Ian Kinsler–Prince Fielder deal with the Tigers was a particularly memorable one, with high-profile players and big contracts. And the Texas org also swung major deals for a pair of veteran southpaws, getting Cliff Lee from the Mariners and Cole Hamels from the Phillies.

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