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10 NL Central Hitters Looking For Bounce-Back Years

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Our series focusing on notable players looking for bounce-back seasons in 2020 rolls on with the National League Central. We’ll start with 10 of the division’s hitters who hope to return to form this year…

Joey Votto, 1B, Reds:

Votto is one of the greatest hitters who has ever lived, so it was rather surprising – even at the age of 35 – to see him turn in such pedestrian numbers in 2019. He ended up with what was essentially a league-average line of .261/.357/.411 with 15 home runs in 608 plate appearances, mustering just 0.7 fWAR during that span. Compared to 2018, the ever-patient Votto saw his walk rate fall by almost 5 percent, his out-of-zone swing rate jump by nearly 5 percent and his strikeout rate climb by 4 percent. Regarding his performance last year, Votto admitted in February (via Mark Sheldon of MLB.com): “It’s the worst season I’ve had in my career, pretty clearly. I don’t think it’s close. Everything went the wrong way.” Now, the six-time All-Star and former MVP is “motivated” to turn things around as part of what could be the Reds’ first contending team in several years.

Lorenzo Cain, CF, Brewers:

Cain joined Votto in logging uncharacteristically mediocre numbers last season. But Cain, a 5.7-fWAR player as recently as 2018, was clearly hampered by a right thumb injury. That issue played a part in limiting the 33-year-old to 1.5 fWAR and a .260/.325/.372 line across 623 trips to the plate. From 2018-19, his walk rate fell by 3.5 percent, his wRC+ plummeted by 41 points (124 to 83) and he stole 12 fewer bases (30 to 18).

Justin Smoak, 1B, Brewers:

One of the Brewers’ offseason free-agent pickups, Smoak is coming off a year in which he matched Votto in wRC+. That’s normally a good thing, but at 101, that wasn’t the case last season. In his final campaign with the Blue Jays, the switch-hitting Smoak only put together a .208/.342/.406 line in his 500 PA. But his hard-hit rate increased by almost 9 percent, according to FanGraphs, and Statcast was a fan of his work. Notably, the 33-year-old’s expected weighted on-base average (.366) far outpaced his real wOBA (.323).

Jedd Gyorko, INF, Brewers:

Another of Milwaukee’s offseason signings, Gyorko is on the heels of a brutal and injury-wrecked 2019 spent with the Cardinals and Dodgers. He accounted for minus-0.7 fWAR in just 101 PA, thanks in large part to an unsightly .174/.248/.250 line. Before that, Gyorko totaled three straight seasons of above-average offensive production. For an affordable $2MM, Milwaukee’s hoping a healthy version of the 31-year-old will return to his 2016-18 days.

Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Cardinals:

There was nothing wrong with Goldschmidt’s output in 2019, per se; it just didn’t match up to the brilliance we’ve come to expect from him. A middling start to the six-time All-Star’s first season as a Cardinal tamped down his overall numbers, helping limit him to a .260/.346/.476 showing and 2.9 fWAR (though he did hit 34 home runs). Remember, Goldschmidt entered the year as a lifetime .297/.398/.532 hitter with six consecutive seasons of between 4.0 and 7.2 fWAR.

Matt Carpenter, 3B, Cardinals:

Carpenter, like Goldschmidt, was a star in the several seasons preceding 2019. But last year went awry for Carpenter, who – for the first time in his career – failed to record even average offensive production. The 34-year-old finished the season as a .226/.334/.392 hitter in 492 PA, notching a career-worst 1.2 fWAR in the process. Compared to 2018, Carpenter’s walk and strikeout rates went in the wrong direction by about 3 percent apiece, his ISO plummeted by a stunning 100 points, and his hard-hit percentage fell by eight points.

Yadier Molina, C, Cardinals:

The Cardinals are currently working to extend the 37-year-old Molina, one of the best players in franchise history, though the potential Hall of Famer wasn’t his usual self in 2019. He produced his lowest fWAR (1.2) since 2006 and batted a powerless .270/.312/.399 in 452 PA. On the other side, Molina’s caught-stealing rate went down by a few points to 27 percent (still a bit better than average), and his pitch-framing output also dropped.

Harrison Bader, CF, Cardinals:

With this many Cardinals on the list, it’s a wonder they took the division last season. Anyhow, Bader was a major contributor to the team in 2018 – his first full season – but couldn’t come close to replicating that performance in ’19. His fWAR was cut in half by 50 percent (3.6 to 1.8), largely because of a disappointing .205/.314/.366 line over 406 trips to the plate. A 4 percent increase in strikeout rate was among the culprits. To Bader’s credit, though, he did slash his soft-contact rate and continue to thrive in the outfield, where he tallied 14 Defensive Runs Saved and a 12.9 Ultimate Zone Rating.

Gregory Polanco, OF, Pirates:

It would be fair to give Polanco a mulligan for his poor year, as he underwent left shoulder surgery in September 2018 and dealt with problems in that area throughout last season. He only appeared in 42 games and amassed 167 PA, batting .242/.301/.425.

Daniel Descalso, INF, Cubs:

The typically light-hitting Descalso was so effective as a Diamondback in 2018 that it convinced the Cubs to give him a two-year, $5MM contract heading into last season. That decision has not paid off at all so far. The 33-year-old Descalso’s initial season in Chicago couldn’t have gone much worse, as he batted .173/.241/.250 over 194 PA and accounted for minus-0.8 fWAR. Among 411 hitters who racked up at least 150 PA, Descalso ranked seventh worst in wRC+ (42) and 14th from the bottom in ISO (.077). If you’re skeptical that he’ll turn back into a decent contributor this year, you’re not alone, but there’s really nowhere to go but up.

14 NL East Pitchers Looking For Bounce-Back Years

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We took a look Tuesday at 10 position players from the National League East who are hoping 2020 goes better than last year did. Let’s now explore an even larger selection of pitchers seeking rebound efforts this season…

Mike Foltynewicz, RHP, Braves:

Foltynewicz was an indispensable part of the Braves’ rotation two years ago, but the beginning of last season went so poorly for him that the team optioned him to Triple-A in late June. Upon his return in August, Foltynewicz was a much better pitcher, his horrid performance in the Braves’ NLDS elimination game against the Cardinals notwithstanding. The two-time defending division champion Braves will need his August-September to carry over, as their rotation’s dealing with some uncertainty because of Cole Hamels’ shoulder problems.

Noah Syndergaard, RHP, Mets:

To be clear, last season was not a poor one for Syndergaard by any means. He amassed a personal-high 197 1/3 innings, continued to average upward of 97 mph on his fastball and posted 9.2 K/9 against 2.28 BB/9. Moreover, Syndergaard was a Statcast darling, ranking near the top of the majors in average exit velocity against, expected weighted on-base average and hard-hit percentage, among other categories. On the other hand, his normally stellar run prevention hit career-worst levels. Syndergaard wound up with a 4.28 ERA/3.60 FIP. That’s fine, but it’s not the front-of-the-rotation type of production we’ve grown accustomed to seeing him log.

Rick Porcello/Michael Wacha, RHPs, Mets:

We’ll lump these two together because they’re both offseason signings who could factor into the back of the Mets’ rotation. Porcello, a former Cy Young winner with the Red Sox, continued to chew up innings last year (174 1/3), but he couldn’t keep runs off the board. His ERA (5.52) was dead last among qualified starters, while his 4.76 FIP checked in as the game’s seventh-worst figure. But the Mets took a $10MM gamble on the durable 31-year-old. That came after they spent $3MM on Wacha, a former Cardinal who – contrary to Porcello – has not been the picture of durability. Wacha has typically stopped runs at a quality clip, but that wasn’t the case last season – a year in which he shuffled between the Cardinals’ rotation and bullpen and concluded with a 4.76 ERA/5.61 FIP over 126 2/3 frames. Career-worst walk and home run-to-fly ball rates of 3.91 and 22 percent, respectively, dragged him down.

Edwin Diaz/Jeurys Familia/Dellin Betances, RHPs, Mets:

Lots of Mets on this list, aren’t there? Diaz was supposed to be the team’s end-of-game savior last season after coming over in a blockbuster trade with the Mariners. He turned in one of the greatest seasons in the history of relievers the year prior, so you can’t blame the Mets for expecting his excellence to continue. Instead, opposing hitters tattooed the 25-year-old for a 5.59 ERA/4.51 FIP and 2.33 home runs per nine across 58 innings, leading to seven blown saves in 33 attempts (Diaz went 57-of-61 in those situations in 2018). But if the HR rate and the .377 batting average on balls in play return to earth in 2020, Diaz should be OK. He did, after all, strike out 15.36 hitters per nine (against 3.41 walks) and average almost 98 mph on his fastball last year.

Like Familia, Diaz came to the Mets as a ballyhooed offseason pickup a year ago. As someone who pitched well for the Mets in his prior stint with the team, Familia was already a known commodity to the club. However, New York didn’t get the version of Familia it expected in 2019. He continued to throw hard (in the 96 mph range), but a bloated walk rate of 6.3 per nine contributed to an awful 5.70 ERA/4.88 FIP in 60 frames. Like Diaz, an inflated BABIP (.346) was among the contributors to Familia’s struggles, though he earned that to some degree with a 7 percent increase in hard-hit rate.

Betances is the lone member of this trio who’s not coming off a poor season. The longtime Yankee, whom the Mets signed to a $10.5MM guarantee on Christmas Eve, is just trying to bounce back from an injury-wrecked year. Betances only made one appearance last year after battling shoulder troubles. And when he was leaving the mound following that September outing, the four-time All-Star suffered a partial tear of his left Achilles tendon.

Sean Doolittle/Roenis Elias, LHPs, Nationals:

Doolittle was incredibly dominant for the Nationals two years ago, and though he helped the team to a World Series last fall, his regular season wasn’t as productive. His ERA and FIP (4.05/4.25) each increased by more than two runs, while his strikeout, walk and groundball rates (9.9 K/9, 2.25 BB/9, 25.3 percent) were also markedly worse than they were during the previous season. Elias experienced a similar drop-off, and injuries limited him to four appearances for the Nats after they acquired him from the Mariners at the July 31 trade deadline. But he and Doolittle will head into the new season as the top two southpaws in Washington’s bullpen.

Adam Conley, LHP; Drew Steckenrider, RHP, Marlins:

The hard-throwing Conley was a fairly solid piece out of the Marlins’ bullpen in 2018. That wasn’t the case last season – a 60 2/3-inning campaign in which he pitched to a 6.53 ERA/5.19 FIP with 7.86 K/9, 4.3 BB/9 and a 37.9 percent grounder rate. Conley also saw his swinging-strike rate fall by more than 4 percent, though he did give up fewer hard-hit balls, and a .351 BABIP didn’t help matters.

Steckenrider joined Conley two seasons ago in seemingly emerging as a respectable late-game arm for Miami. However, thanks in part to elbow troubles, he never really got off the ground last year. Steckenrider only tossed 14 1/3 innings, in which he yielded 10 earned runs on nine hits – including six home runs.

Jake Arrieta, RHP, Phillies:

Arrieta’s a former Cy Young winner with the Cubs who hasn’t performed as hoped since the Phillies signed him to a three-year, $75MM guarantee entering 2018. The 34-year-old dealt with a serious elbow injury last season, holding him to 135 2/3 innings (his fewest since 2013) and a 4.64 ERA/4.89 FIP.

Seranthony Dominguez/Victor Arano, RHPs, Phillies:

These two relievers were terrific out of the Phillies’ bullpen in 2018, but their health failed them last year. They combined for just 29 1/3 innings, most of which came from Dominguez. Whether they rebound this season will obviously depend in part on whether they’re actually able to take the mound with consistency. Arano, whom elbow surgery largely kept off the hill in 2019, does look as if he’s trending toward Opening Day readiness. That’s not the case for Dominguez, who just suffered a setback in his own recovery from elbow woes.

8 Out-Of-Options Players To Keep An Eye On

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MLBTR released its annual compilation of out-of-options players just yesterday. Many of those listed have already sewn up active roster spots. But there are quite a few on the bubble. Here are eight of the most interesting out-of-options players to watch … particularly for teams that’ll be eyeing the waiver wire for hidden gems later this month:

Athletics: Jorge Mateo (2B/SS), Franklin Barreto (2B/SS), Tony Kemp (2B/OF)

We ran through this trio earlier in Spring Training, but there’s still no real clarity on who’s going to come away from this bunch with the Athletics’ starting job at second base — or even if it will be any of them. (Sheldon Neuse is also in the mix, although he has minor league options remaining.) Both Mateo and Barreto are former Top 100 prospects acquired by Oakland in high profile trades. Mateo came in the deal that sent Sonny Gray to the Yankees, while Barreto was acquired as a teenager in the ill-fated Josh Donlaldson swap with the Blue Jays. Mateo is an 80-grade runner and a natural shortstop who could shift to a utility role if he doesn’t win the second base gig. Barreto has had more success at the plate in the upper minors. Kemp, acquired from the Cubs in a small trade earlier in the winter, is the longest shot to win the job but could nab a bench spot, as he’s also capable of covering the outfield and the A’s are light on lefty bats.

Barreto entered Spring Training as the favorite, and he’s been the most impressive at the plate in a small sample of Cactus League games so far. The Royals and Tigers have reportedly shown some trade interest in Mateo.

Blue Jays: Anthony Alford (OF)

Toronto has room to carry Alford on the Opening Day roster, but the combination of Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Randal Grichuk, Teoscar Hernandez and Derek Fisher could all have bigger roles rotating between the outfield and designated hitter slots.

Alford, a former two-sport star and top prospect, has only logged 59 MLB plate appearances despite reaching the Majors in each of the past three seasons. That he’s out of options puts the Jays in a tough spot, as he can’t be sent to Triple-A for regular work but also probably won’t find everyday at-bats in the 2020 outfield — barring injuries to the four names ahead of him.

Cardinals: Rangel Ravelo (1B/OF)

With Paul Goldschmidt entrenched at first base, Ravelo has no path to his primary position. The Cards gave Ravelo his first look at third base since 2012 while he was in Triple-A this past season and also gave him some work in the outfield corners. The 27-year-old (28 in April)  is looking at a spot as a right-handed bench bat on a heavily right-handed team that doesn’t have an easy path to regular at-bats. Over the past three seasons, he’s batted .307/.386/.480 in Triple-A — good for a 123 wRC+. Ravelo could be the Cardinals’ next version of Jose Martinez — a lefty-mashing first baseman/outfielder off the bench — but between Tyler O’Neill, Lane Thomas and Austin Dean, they’re not exactly short on right-handed bats to fill that role.

Reds: Scott Schebler (OF)

Schebler was a 30-homer bat for the Reds two years ago but struggled to get on base that year, hitting .233/.307/.484 on the whole. His power dipped in ’18 as his OBP rose, but he flopped in the big leagues and in Triple-A last year while battling oblique injuries. With Nick Castellanos, Shogo Akiyama, Nick Senzel, Jesse Winker and Aristides Aquino all likely ahead of Schebler on the depth chart now, his roster spot seems to be on shaky ground — though Aquino’s rough spring does leave room to claim a roster spot. Schebler will play the 2020 season at 29 years of age, and he’s controlled another four years via arbitration.

Rockies: Jeff Hoffman (RHP)

Hoffman was  a top-10 draft pick, a top-50 MLB prospect and the centerpiece of the trade that sent Troy Tulowitzki from Denver to Toronto back in 2015. A half decade later, however, he’s toting a career 6.11 ERA and 5.67 FIP through more than 200 big league innings. Hoffman hasn’t even found success in the upper minors, but his pedigree, above-average fastball velocity (93.7 mph average in ’19), and excellent fastball spin (89th percentile) could all prompt another team to try its hand at coaxing some of that potential out of him. Hoffman certainly wouldn’t be the first pitcher to struggle at Coors Field only to find success following a change of scenery.

The Rockies aren’t exactly dealing with an arms surplus themselves and may be loath to let go of Hoffman for a minimal return. But owner Dick Monfort seems intent on making an attempt to contend in 2020, and Hoffman hasn’t performed well this spring. It’s feasible that he could be on the outside looking in.

White Sox: Carson Fulmer (RHP)

Once one of the most touted college arms in the country, Fulmer was the topic of great debate in the 2015 draft, when he went eighth overall to the White Sox. Fulmer led Vanderbilt’s rotation to the College World Series, but many scouting reports on him pegged him as a surefire reliever. The ChiSox were committed to him as a starter up until 2018, but he finally moved to the ’pen that season and pitched exclusively in short stints in 2019. Fulmer hasn’t had success in the Majors or in the upper minors, but he showed elite spin on his four-seamer and breaking ball in 2019 while posting career-bests in average velocity (93.7 mph) and swinging-strike rate (10.8 percent).

The White Sox have, at most, two spots available in their bullpen this spring. Fulmer has turned in a strong effort — two runs on seven hits and three walks with 11 strikeouts in 9 2/3 innings — but manager Rick Renteria hasn’t labeled him any sort of favorite at this point (link via Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times).

MLBTR Poll: When Will Yasiel Puig Sign?

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The beginning of Major League Baseball’s regular season is just over two weeks away, yet high-profile outfielder Yasiel Puig still doesn’t have a job. The onetime All-Star and former Dodger, Red and Indian is the lone straggler from MLBTR’s offseason-opening ranking of the sport’s top 50 free agents. At that point, we forecast a one-year, $8MM contract for Puig, who reportedly turned down a $10MM guarantee from an unknown team sometime over the winter. Otherwise, reported interest in the polarizing Puig has been scarce.

Unfortunately for Puig, he didn’t reach free free agency at the ideal juncture. For one, there were similarly valuable or better corner outfielders available (Nick Castellanos, Marcell Ozuna, Corey Dickerson and Kole Calhoun come to mind). And though Puig was a star at times earlier in his career in Los Angeles, he combined for a mediocre 3.0 fWAR from 2018-19. Last season was especially middling for Puig, who slashed .267/.327/.458 in 611 plate appearances. While Puig did hit 24 home runs and steal 19 bases, his overall offensive output amounted to a 101 wRC+, which basically means he was a league-average performer with the bat.

As unspectacular as his numbers may have been last year, there’s certainly still an argument that Puig would be worth the trouble for someone. Earlier this week, Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs made a compelling case for the Rangers to sign him on the heels of the fractured jaw fellow outfielder Willie Calhoun suffered Sunday. They’re one potential fit. But there are more teams that may be able to benefit from Puig’s presence.

Several rebuilding or non-contending clubs (the Giants, Rockies, Marlins, Orioles, Tigers and Mariners make for a half-dozen examples) are set to bring uninspiring-looking outfields to the table. Puig wouldn’t turn any of them into winners, but a few decent months could allow one of those teams to get something back for him at the July trade deadline. Even prospective contenders like the Yankees and Athletics may have needs in the grass at the moment, depending on how certain injury situations shake out. Meanwhile, the Indians – with whom Puig finished 2019 – don’t exactly boast a veritable Murderers’ Row out there.

Ultimately, it may take a serious injury in either the spring or near the start of the regular season for Puig to land somewhere in the next few weeks. But it’s odd that he remains available now – especially considering he doesn’t have a qualifying offer hanging over his head, as the likes of Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel did a year ago.

Puig has now been on the market for four-plus months. How much longer do you expect him to stay there?

(Poll link for app users)

10 NL East Hitters Looking For Bounce-Back Years

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With the regular season approaching, we’re taking a look at hitters and pitchers from each division who are seeking bounce-back years in 2020. We’ve already covered the American League, so let’s head to the Senior Circuit and begin with 10 NL East hitters hoping to rebound from subpar 2019 showings this year.

Didi Gregorius, SS, Phillies:

With a one-year, $14MM guarantee, Gregorius was one of the Phillies’ highest-profile acquisitions during the offseason, though the former Yankees star landed the contract off a less-than-ideal platform year. After returning from Tommy John surgery on his right elbow in June, the 30-year-old hit a below-average .238/.276/.441 and totaled only 0.9 fWAR over 344 plate appearances. Gregorius also wound up under the league average in several important Statcast categories. Nevertheless, as someone who put up no worse than 4.0 fWAR in both 2017 and ’18, the Phillies are banking on a rebound; otherwise, they can simply move on after the season.

Johan Camargo, 3B, Braves:

The switch-hitting Camargo was a 3.0-fWAR player two seasons ago, but he fell flat last year, turning in a minus-0.5 effort with a dismal .233/.279/.384 line in 248 plate appearances. Despite that, he’s in the running (along with Austin Riley) to start at third base this season for the Braves, who lost previous No. 1 option Josh Donaldson in free agency.

Yan Gomes, C, Nationals:

Gomes earned the lone All-Star nod of his career in 2018, his final season with the Indians, but saw his offensive production dip in Year 1 with the Nationals. A slow start doomed Gomes to a .223/.316/.389 line in 358 PA, though he did experience a major offensive rebound in the second half. Defensively, while Gomes did throw out 31 percent of would-be base thieves, his pitch-framing numbers fell off a cliff. Still, the Nationals brought him back for two years and $10MM to once again team with Kurt Suzuki.

Robinson Cano, 2B, Mets:

Cano was supposed to be the long-term answer at second for the Mets, who paid a pretty penny for him and closer Edwin Diaz in a trade with the Mariners in December 2018. Instead, the longtime star turned in the worst season of his excellent career, batting .256/.307/.428 in 423 trips to the plate during an injury-shortened campaign. Cano recorded far better numbers during the second half of the season, though, and ranked near the top of the league in multiple Statcast categories (average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage). So, it may be too soon to declare the 37-year-old done; at least, the Mets hope that’s the case.

Wilson Ramos, C, Mets:

Ramos was yet another of the Mets’ hyped pre-2019 pickups whose first season with the team didn’t go as hoped. The 32-year-old did notch a respectable batting line for his position, slashing .288/.351/.416 across 524 PA, but it paled in comparison to what he did the previous season. And Ramos wasn’t exactly a strength defensively. He threw out just 15 percent of would-be base stealers and ended up near the bottom of the league in Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average metric.

Jed Lowrie, INF, Mets:

There may not have been a more ill-fated addition for the Mets last offseason than Lowrie. Signed to a two-year, $20MM contract after back-to-back terrific seasons with the Athletics, multiple injuries limited Lowrie to nine games and eight plate appearances. The 35-year-old isn’t even a lock to participate this season, as he continues to deal with leg troubles. Even if Lowrie does play, he’s not slated to be anything more than a backup right now. Perhaps that will change as the season goes along, but Lowrie will have to get healthy first.

Yoenis Cespedes, OF, Mets:

Hey, another Met! Cespedes is coming off an injury-ravaged couple years – including an ailment he suffered during a run-in with a wild boar – but seems to be making progress now. The talent’s there for a bounce-back campaign, but if your stance is “I’ll believe it when I see it,” you’re not alone.

Brandon Nimmo, OF, Mets:

Maybe we should change the name of this list to “Mets Hitters Who Are Looking For Bounce-Back Seasons.” Nimmo was the most productive of this group last year, at least offensively, but his output fell shy of his coming-out party in 2018. Injuries held the on-base machine to 69 games, 254 PA, a .221/.375/.407 line and 1.3 fWAR. Meanwhile, his hard-hit percentage plummeted by seven points and his expected weighted on-base average dropped from .352 to .330, per Statcast.

Jesus Aguilar, 1B, Marlins:

Aguilar was among the game’s most prolific sluggers as a member of the Brewers in 2018, when he registered a 134 wRC+ and amassed 35 home runs. But he was unable to follow it up during a 2019 divided between Milwaukee and Tampa Bay. Aguilar concluded with an uninspiring .236/.325/.389 line and 12 homers across 389 trips to the plate. However, according to Statcast (.334 xwOBA versus .307 real wOBA), he may have deserved better. The Marlins are banking on that after plucking the 29-year-old off waivers over the winter.

Francisco Cervelli, C, Marlins:

Like Aguilar, Cervelli’s production dropped precipitously in 2019. The 34-year-old’s longtime concussion problems came to the forefront again, holding him to 160 PA of replacement-level production. But Cervelli was a very good contributor just two seasons ago, and for $2MM, Miami’s hoping he’ll serve as a solid complement and mentor to Jorge Alfaro.

Offseason In Review: Minnesota Twins

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The Twins set out in search of “impact” pitching but instead signed a position player to the second-largest contract in franchise history and added a host of mid-rotation arms.

Guaranteed Contracts

Trades and Claims

Options Decisions

Extensions

  • Miguel Sano, 1B/3B: Three years, $30MM (includes $2.75MM buyout of $14MM club option for 2023)

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

The Twins surprised onlookers in 2019 not only by winning the American League Central but by doing so in a decisive fashion thanks to a powerhouse lineup that shocked the baseball world with a Major League-record 307 home runs. But their rotation was a more middle-of-the-pack unit, and the vast majority of it — Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson, Michael Pineda, Martin Perez —  reached free agency at season’s end. Minnesota issued a $17.8MM qualifying offer to Odorizzi, and he made the somewhat surprising decision to accept. This winter’s free-agent market was vastly more active and player-friendly than the previous two, so perhaps he’d prefer a mulligan on that decision, but Odorizzi maintains that he has no regrets.

With Odorizzi on board alongside Jose Berrios, the Twins at least had a pair of quality arms on which to rely, but president of baseball ops Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine opened the winter by declaring their intent to acquire “impact” starting pitching. Minnesota entered the winter with a projected 2020 payroll of just $64MM and with only two players (Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco) guaranteed anything beyond the 2020 season. Their measured approach to free agency a year ago and their cost-efficient young core left them with plenty of immediate and long-term flexibility.

That said, adding “impact” pitching was still a rather lofty goal when considering the short supply of high-end talent available; Gerrit Cole was always projected to sign a record-setting contract — though few predicted his eventual $324MM price tag — and Stephen Strasburg wasn’t expected to be too far behind. (As it turns out, he briefly set a new record for starting pitcher contracts, signing days before Cole.)

The only real “impact” arms available beyond that duo were Zack Wheeler, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Madison Bumgarner — and the extent to which “impact” describes them is rather debatable. None of the bunch is a clear ace, be it for durability reasons, consistency of track record or some combination of the two. Ultimately, the Twins were spurned by both Wheeler — who reportedly had a strong East Coast preference — and Ryu. Their interest in Bumgarner wasn’t as high, and the longtime Giants star said after signing with the D-backs that Arizona was his top choice anyhow.

While the trade market normally presents an alternative avenue, there simply weren’t any top-of-the-rotation arms readily available this winter, with the possible exception of Corey Kluber. But Kluber is coming off an injury-ruined year, and it was never likely that the Indians would trade the former Cy Young winner to the reigning division champs.

Josh Donaldson

The Twins, then, were left with a choice: make short-term and/or smaller investments once again in hopes of spending the considerable financial resources at their disposal down the road … or pivot and sign the most talented player available to them. They opted for the latter, emerging as a dark-horse candidate for Josh Donaldson and eventually landing the former AL MVP on a four-year, $92MM deal — the second-largest contract in club history.

The “Bringer of (Purple) Rain” is already 34 years old, so there’s some clear age-related risk. But Donaldson also posted an outstanding .259/.379/.521 slash with 37 home runs, 33 doubles and, importantly, excellent third-base glovework in 2019. And by moving Miguel Sano (-7 Defensive Runs Saved, -5 Outs Above Average) across the diamond in favor of Donaldson (15 DRS, 8 OAA), the Twins should substantially help their pitching staff. The Donaldson deal might not look great by years three and four of the contract, but it’s a win-now move that bolsters their chances in 2020-21.

With Donaldson penciled into the heart of the order, the Twins didn’t have much else to do in terms of their starting lineup. Max Kepler will again man right field, and the Twins will hope that healthier iterations of Byron Buxton and Eddie Rosario will comprise a quality outfield trio on both sides of the ball. Jorge Polanco should again be the primary shortstop, while sophomore Luis Arraez (.334/.399/.439 in 366 plate appearances) will get the nod at second base. Nelson Cruz will be back for a second season at designated hitter. Mitch Garver is lined up for regular catching duties after a 2019 breakout. Utilitymen Marwin Gonzalez and Ehire Adrianza can play just about anywhere in the event of an injury.

Even if their big move was adding a third baseman, the Twins still addressed the pitching staff in multiple smaller ways. Pineda will return on an affordable two-year deal, although he’ll miss the first 39 games of the year under a league-reduced 60-game suspension after he tested positive for a banned diuretic.

Veterans Homer Bailey and Rich Hill both joined the mix on New Year’s Eve, signing low-cost one-year pacts. Bailey enjoyed his first full, healthy season since 2013 last year and flashed some positive secondary metrics that were more appealing than his base 4.57 ERA. Hill was terrific when healthy in ’19 but won’t pitch until at least June after undergoing primary repair surgery.

Most expected the Twins to be done with that set of additions, but they emerged as the third team in trade talks with the Dodgers and Red Sox as those clubs tried to sort out a Mookie Betts/David Price blockbuster. Minnesota originally got in on the deal by agreeing to send prized prospect Brusdar Graterol to Boston in exchange for the Dodgers’ Kenta Maeda. The Red Sox balked after viewing Graterol’s medical records, claiming surprise that he profiled more as a reliever. When that iteration of the deal was scrapped, the Dodgers worked out a separate trade to ship Maeda to Minneapolis, taking Graterol and other pieces themselves back in return. Weeks later, it emerged that Maeda had asked out of L.A. — seemingly frustrated by his lack of a consistent rotation spot, which the Twins can surely provide.

A Twins club that entered the winter with one clear big league starter on the roster (Berrios) will enter 2020 with Berrios, Odorizzi, Maeda, Bailey, Randy Dobnak, Devin Smeltzer, Lewis Thorpe and perhaps non-roster invitee Jhoulys Chacin all as options in the starting mix. Pineda (mid-May) and Hill (June or July) aren’t expected to be far behind. It may not be an imposing group of names, but it’s a suddenly deep reservoir from which to draw. The group doesn’t look markedly better or markedly worse than the collection of arms the Twins rode to a division title in 2019, but it still seems like they’ll be in the mix for the ever-elusive “impact” starter this summer as they look to end a comically lengthy postseason slump.

Elsewhere on the roster, the Twins added some steady veterans to fill complementary roles. Alex Avila will join his third AL Central club as the backup to Garver. Avila’s sky-high strikeout rates and low batting averages are a turnoff for many, but he’s an on-base machine (career 14.4 percent walk rate) who hits for some power, frames pitches well and throws well.

Minnesota’s bullpen emerged as a quietly deep unit down the stretch in 2019, buoyed by big performances from closer Taylor Rogers, setup men Tyler Duffey and Trevor May, and rookie starter-turned-reliever Zack Littell. The Twins added to that mix by re-signing Sergio Romo to a one-year deal with an option and by inking well-traveled veteran Tyler Clippard to a one-year pact. Romo shined in a high-leverage role with the Twins after being acquired from the Marlins last summer. Clippard could be an important piece due to his ability to retire left-handed hitters (.182/.256/.321 over the past three seasons combined); the new three-batter minimum makes effectiveness against both righties and lefties more critical, and this winter’s market was noticeably light on quality left-handed relievers.

The other notable piece of offseason business for the Twins was Sano’s new contract. It’s extraordinarily rare to see a player with four-plus years of big league service take a deal that delays his path to free agency in exchange for just one additional guaranteed year — and even rarer for that deal to include a club option. Over the past decade, former Braves third baseman Chris Johnson is the only position player to sign a three-year extension with a club option at this stage of his career.

Sano has dealt with myriad injuries in his career to this point and has been inconsistent when healthy. That surely impacted his decision to take the deal and was factored in by the organization in its offer. The end result is that in 2022 — the first of Sano’s would-be free-agent years — the Twins will control him, Polanco and Kepler (last winter’s extension recipients) for a combined $21.5MM. If Sano’s $14MM option is exercised in 2023, that trio will be owed $30MM. Combine that with Maeda’s annual $3.125MM base salary (also through 2023), and the Twins have done a nice job in establishing some cost certainty over the long run.

Other extensions could yet follow for Minnesota. The Twins tried to work out a long-term deal with Berrios a year ago and could do so again between now and Opening Day. Cruz is a free agent at season’s end, but the 39-year-old has made clear he plans to continue playing. Minnesota has talked to his agents already. Byron Buxton seems a plausible candidate as well. In the bullpen, a preemptive run at signing May before he reaches free agency at season’s end or a long-term deal with Rogers could be sensible pursuits. Last year’s breakout aside, there’s probably less urgency with the late-blooming Garver, who is already 29 years old and controlled through his age-33 season.

2020 Outlook

With a serviceable rotation, a quietly strong bullpen and what could be MLB’s most potent lineup, the Twins enter the 2020 season as the favorites in the AL Central. They’ll try to stave off an Indians club that cut spending and a White Sox organization that went the other direction, significantly ramping up payroll.  But last year’s Minnesota roster bested Cleveland by eight games and Chicago by 28.5 games. The Indians look like a worse team now than they did in 2019, and while the ChiSox are unequivocally improved, wiping out that kind of deficit would be a stunning accomplishment.

Rotation help could very well be on the summer wishlist again, depending on the health and productivity of their incumbent options. But after toiling away in futility for much of their time since the opening of Target Field in 2010, the Twins finally look like a team poised for some sustainable success.

How would you grade the Twins’ offseason moves?  (Link for app users.)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Out Of Options 2020

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The following 40-man roster players have less than five years service time and are out of minor league options. That means they must clear waivers before being sent to the minors. I’ve included players on multiyear deals. This list was compiled through MLBTR’s helpful sources.

Angels

Astros

Athletics

Blue Jays

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Indians

Mariners

Marlins

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Red Sox

Rangers

Rays

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

Camp Battles: Nationals’ No. 5 Starter

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When it comes to the Nationals’ rotation, this much is a near certainty: If healthy, it should be among the game’s premier starting staffs in 2020. That was the case last year when Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Patrick Corbin and Anibal Sanchez combined for 123 regular-season starts of high-end production to help the team to a playoff berth. Those four were also important contributors during the Nationals’ first-ever run to a World Series championship in the fall, and all of them are set to reprise their roles in the club’s staff this season. The last position in the starting five is up for grabs, though, and it’s a three-way battle to win the spot. Two of those players are out of minor league options, meaning one of the runners-up could end up in a different organization soon if he doesn’t at least land in the Nationals’ bullpen. Here’s a look at the contenders…

  • Joe Ross, RHP (out of options): Ross delivered terrific results as a member of the Nationals’ rotation from 2015-16, but injuries helped cut him down in the ensuing two seasons. He did amass 64 innings last regular season, though most of that work came from the bullpen, and Ross wound up with an unspectacular 5.48 ERA/4.59 FIP. However, as MLBTR’s TC Zencka pointed out over the weekend, Ross was far more impressive in his nine starts than during his 18 relief appearances. Despite just 7.66 K/9 against 4.43 BB/9 in a starting role, the 26-year-old pitched to a stingy 3.02 ERA (with a solid 3.86 FIP) in 44 2/3 innings. For what it’s worth, Ross has picked up where he left off this spring, having yielded two earned runs on four hits and four walks (three strikeouts) over 7 1/3 frames.
  • Erick Fedde, RHP (one option remaining): Fedde totaled the fifth-most starts (12) among Nationals last year, but the results weren’t all that pleasing. He logged a 4.50 ERA/5.34 FIP with 4.73 K/9 and 3.81 BB/9 across 78 frames. That continued a trend of unspectacular major league production for Fedde, Washington’s first-round pick in 2014. Fedde has shown a penchant for inducing ground balls (52.8 percent), though, and has joined Ross in tossing 7 1/3 effective innings this spring. So far, the 27-year-old has given up two earned runs on five hits and four walks (seven strikeouts). But the fact that Fedde has an option left may not do him any favors in the fight for a roster spot in D.C.
  • Austin Voth, RHP (out of options): Voth, 27, was quietly effective out of Washington’s rotation in 2019, when he recorded a 3.30 ERA/3.79 FIP and excellent strikeout/walk numbers (9.07 K/9, 2.68 BB/9). An uptick in velocity helped – after averaging 91.4 mph on his fastball the previous year, the mean climbed to 92.8, helping lead to an almost 5 percent increase in swinging-strike rate. Likewise, Voth held his own over 61 1/3 innings in Triple-A ball, where he notched a 4.40 ERA/3.85 FIP, struck out just under 10 hitters per nine and only walked a bit more than two. And Voth has continued to impress this spring, with one run allowed, six strikeouts and one walk through seven frames.

MLBTR Poll: How Good Are The Cubs?

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It’s no secret that it was  a quiet winter for the Cubs, a team coming off a 2019 collapse and a disappointing 84 wins. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently took a deep dive into the Cubs’ unpopular offseason, in which they spent a meager $3.5MM on major league free agents and didn’t make any earth-shattering trades.

There was some expectation the Cubs would deal at least one high-profile player (third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant, for instance), but having found no offers to their liking, they seem prepared to bring back a roster somewhat similar to last year’s. That is, minus a handful of notable players – Nick Castellanos, Cole Hamels, Steve Cishek and Brandon Kintzler – who performed well for Chicago in 2019 and then exited in free agency.

Despite those losses, there is still a case that the Cubs are more talented than your average club. Bryant, shortstop Javier Baez, first baseman Anthony Rizzo, catcher Willson Contreras and left fielder Kyle Schwarber are still around to drive their position player group. That unit finished top 10 in the majors in runs and fWAR last year (though Castellanos’ second-half tear contributed to both figures).

As with the loss of Castellanos, Hamels’ departure seems likely to hurt. Although injuries hampered Hamels in his last season as a Cub, he still racked up 141 2/3 innings of solid production (3.81 ERA). They’d love that this year from the beleaguered Tyler Chatwood or some other fifth starter (Alec Mills? Jharel Cotton? Adbert Alzolay?), but it’s tough to bet on it happening. The good news is that the club’s top four – Kyle Hendricks, Yu Darvish, Jon Lester and Jose Quintana – should continue to at least post decent numbers. The same can’t really be said of the team’s bullpen, however. The unit received horrid production from the normally great Craig Kimbrel a year ago and, despite waving goodbye to Cishek and Kintzler (among others), didn’t do anything of significance to augment its relief corps in the winter.

Fortunately for the Cubs, the National League Central looks as if it’ll be almost anyone’s to win in 2020. The Pirates have almost no shot to contend for the crown, granted, though it could be a four-way race with the Cubs, Brewers and the reigning champion Cardinals vying against the much-improved Reds. If we’re to take this year’s PECOTA projections at face value, the Cubs will fall shy just of an NL Central title en route to 84-85 wins, yet they will earn a wild-card spot. But how do you feel about their chances under rookie manager David Ross? Do you expect a return to contention?

(Poll link for app users)

7 AL Central Pitchers Looking For Bounce-Back Years

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We took a look last week at American League Central hitters who are seeking bounce-back seasons in 2020. Let’s shift gears to the pitching side…

Carlos Carrasco, RHP, Indians:

Carrasco was one of the top starters in the game from 2015-18, but a frightening leukemia diagnosis shelved him for three months last season. Thankfully, Carrasco was able to return in September, functioning as a reliever in all 11 appearances then. The plan is for Carrasco to return toward the top of the Indians’ rotation this season, but he has battled much less serious health problems – mild hip and elbow issues – this spring. A return to Carrasco’s usual production would be especially welcome for the Indians, who traded Corey Kluber in the offseason and will go without the injured Mike Clevinger for a while.

Jhoulys Chacin, RHP, Twins:

It was only two seasons ago that Chacin was an integral member of the Brewers’ rotation, as he amassed 192 2/3 innings of 3.50 ERA/4.03 FIP ball for the then-division champions. But last year represented a massive decline for Chacin, who took the ball for the Brewers on Opening Day but fared so poorly throughout the season that they released him in August. Chacin wound up finishing the season with the Red Sox, though that experiment went haywire for Boston. All said, the 32-year-old recorded a 6.01 ERA/5.88 FIP, walked over four batters per nine and put up his lowest groundball rate (37.5 percent) since 2012. His hard- and soft-contact rates went in troubling directions in the process. However, as a team with a bit of uncertainty in its staff (at least until Michael Pineda and Rich Hill come back), the Twins may gamble on putting Chacin in their season-opening rotation after signing him to a non-guaranteed contract during the winter.

Reynaldo Lopez, RHP, White Sox:

If we’re to believe fWAR (2.3), Lopez’s 2019 was the same as his 2018  – respectable. On the other hand, his run prevention went way downhill. Lopez was quite durable, accumulating 184 innings, but he ranked second to last among qualified starters in ERA (5.38) and FIP (5.04). Like many, the home run bug bit him last season, as he allowed them on 14 percent of fly balls after surrendering HRs around the 9 percent mark in prior years. There are still some positives to take from the 26-year-old Lopez’s most recent performance, though. He continued to average 95.5 on his fastball, increased his strikeouts, upped his swinging-strike rate, and saw his numbers improve dramatically in the second half of the campaign.

Kelvin Herrera, RHP, White Sox:

The White Sox haven’t gotten much value from the once-dominant Herrera, whom they inked to a two-year, $18MM guarantee entering last season. Herrera, trying to rebound from the Lisfranc injury he suffered with the Nationals the prior year, posted easily his highest ERA (6.14) and FIP (4.58) over the course of 51 1/3 frames in 2019. While his K/9 (9.29) spiked compared to his 7.71 from the previous season, his BB/9 shot from 2.03 to 4.03 at the same time. That said, the hard-throwing Herrera was the victim of some poor fortune. His hard- and soft-contact percentages took favorable turns, yet hitters still managed a .347 batting average on balls in play against Herrera, while his strand rate checked in at just 65.9 percent.

Trevor Rosenthal, RHP, Royals:

The hard-throwing Rosenthal was often a a lights-out late-game force in St. Louis from 2012-17; however, he underwent Tommy John surgery late in the last season of those seasons and hasn’t returned to form since. Rosenthal missed all of 2018 and returned last year (as a member of the Nationals and then the Tigers) as someone whose control abandoned him. He walked an incredible 26 batters in only 15 1/3 innings, also yielding 23 earned runs on 11 hits in that span. As a result, the soon-to-be 30-year-old settled for a minor league deal with the rebuilding Royals over the winter. While it’s tough to put much stock in spring training numbers, it’s encouraging that the flamethrowing Rosenthal has notched four scoreless innings with eight strikeouts and zero walks during the exhibition season. Perhaps he and/or fellow buy-low reliever Greg Holland will regain relevance in KC this year.

Mike Montgomery, LHP, Royals:

Montgomery was a useful swingman – even a 2016 World Series hero – for the Cubs earlier in his career, but last season knocked his career off track. He divided it between Chicago and Kansas City, which acquired him in July, and logged personal-worst numbers in ERA (4.95) and FIP (5.52) over 91 innings. Significant increases in hard-hit rate and home run-to-fly ball percentage, not to mention a sizable decrease in soft contact against, all haunted Montgomery a season ago. Nevertheless, the 30-year-old looks like a lock to begin 2020 in the Royals’ rotation.

Alex Wilson, RHP, Tigers:

Despite a dearth of strikeouts, Wilson was at times a low-ERA reliever in his first Tigers tenure from 2015-18, thanks in part to above-average control. The Brewers expected something similar when they signed him to a major league pact going into last season. Instead, however, Wilson delivered a mere 11 1/3 innings for the club, yielding 12 earned runs on 15 hits and an uncharacteristic nine walks. Wilson ultimately spent most of the season as a member of the Brewers’ Triple-A club, with which he produced positive results, but the organization released him in August. He’s now back with Detroit on a minors pact and trying to earn a spot in its bullpen.

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