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The 10-Year Anniversary Of A Notable Cardinals Signing

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We’ve reached the 10-year anniversary of a Cardinals move that has paid significant dividends for the franchise. It was on this date in 2010 that the Cardinals signed right-hander Carlos Martinez out of the Dominican Republic for a $1.5MM bonus. The deal came a year after a $150K agreement Martinez had with the Red Sox fell through because of questions over his name and birthday, as Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com detailed back in 2013.

Martinez’s issues were ultimately sorted out after the Boston deal collapsed, and St. Louis has been the beneficiary. After a torrid run through the minors, Martinez ended up debuting in the majors in 2013 as a hyped prospect, even making five appearances in relief against Boston in St. Louis’ World Series loss to the Red Sox. He has since established himself as a key part of the Cardinals’ pitching staff.

Martinez truly broke out as a starter in 2015, the first season of a three-year, 580-inning stretch in which he logged a 3.24 ERA/3.59 FIP with 8.92 K/9, 3.17 BB/9 and a 54 percent groundball rate. The Cardinals made a sizable commitment to Martinez after the second of those seasons, signing him to an extension worth a guaranteed $51MM over five years in February 2017. Martinez is down to his last two guaranteed seasons on that pact, though the Cardinals will be able to control him for 2022 and ’23 via club options; that is, if they’re willing to pay him $17MM in the first year and/or $18MM in the second (otherwise, they could buy him out in either season for $500K).

Martinez seemed to be on pace to have those options picked up just a couple years ago, but it’s less clear what his future holds at this point. Now 28 years old, Martinez spent the majority of the previous two seasons as a reliever – an effective one at that – owing in part to injuries. Dating back to 2018, he has tossed 167 innings of 3.13 ERA/3.34 FIP ball with 9.16 K/9, 4.2 BB/9 and a typically above-average grounder percentage of 51.1.

All 48 of the hard-throwing Martinez’s appearances last year came out of the Cardinals’ bullpen as he recovered from shoulder issues, and he even converted 24 of 27 save opportunities while filling in for the injured Jordan Hicks as their closer. However, before the coronavirus pandemic reared its ugly head and caused baseball to shut down, the 28-year-old looked as if he was on track to return to his prior role in the St. Louis rotation in 2020.

No matter which job Martinez takes on this season (if there is one), it’s fair to say his production as both a starter and a reliever has been a boon to the Cardinals. Ten years ago today, they landed a two-time All-Star for a relative pittance.

2020-21 MLB Free Agent Class: Corner Outfielders

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In recent days, we’ve run through the most notable catchers, second basemen, shortstops, first basemen, third basemen and center fielders who are slated to reach the free-agent market once the offseason rolls around in several months. Next up: corner outfielders (players’ ages for the 2021 campaign are listed in parentheses).

Top of the Class

  • Mookie Betts (28): Betts is the standout among not only at his position but on the entire free-agent market. He’s been worth at least six wins above replacement (bWAR) in each of the past five years while averaging 149 games played and 683 plate appearances. The revenue loss in 2020 could impact the extent of the bidding war that emerges for Betts, who might’ve otherwise been in line to command the largest free-agent contract in history. He’ll receive a qualifying offer.

Potential Regulars (based on 2019 playing time)

  • George Springer (31): We listed Springer as the top of the class in center field, but a club with a strong center fielder could certainly sign Springer and plug him into right field. Since his MLB debut in 2014, Springer has been at least 26 percent better than the league-average hitter in all but the 2018 season, by measure of wRC+. That year, he was a “mere” 18 percent better. Despite being limited to 122 games last year, he connected on 39 Springer Dingers. A qualifying offer is a given.
  • Nick Castellanos (29): Castellanos landed a four-year, $64MM deal that allows him to opt out after each season. That may not happen on the heels of a shortened or canceled season, but if we see some games and an approximation of the outrageous .321/.356/.646 pace he showed in two months with the Cubs, Castellanos could look for a longer deal — especially given his relative youth. He’d surely receive a qualifying offer if things got to that point.
  • Marcell Ozuna (30): Ozuna had multi-year offers in free agency but bet on himself with a big one-year pact in Atlanta. He has one elite offensive season in a track record that is otherwise filled with solid, above-average campaigns. He can’t receive another qualifying offer
  • Michael Brantley (34): Brantley has been among the league’s toughest strikeouts for the better part of a decade, and only two qualified hitters posted lower strikeout rates last year. He also hit .311/.372/.503 — his fifth straight season of at least a .299 average and .357 OBP (excluding 2016, when he was limited to 11 games by a shoulder operation). When he’s healthy, “Dr. Smooth” is a flat-out hitting machine.
  • Joc Pederson (29): Pederson a career .188/.263/.310 slash against lefties five-plus years into what has been a somewhat strange tenure with the Dodgers. But Pederson is young, plays good defense and obliterates right-handed pitching — and he’s still only had 375 plate appearances against southpaws due to L.A.’s heavy use of platoons. He probably won’t ever be a great hitter against lefties, but he might be better than he’s been given the chance to show. Even if not, Pederson can still rake as the large half of a platoon.
  • Alex Gordon (37): It’ll surely be “Royals or retire” again for the Kansas City icon.
  • Josh Reddick (34): Reddick still plays a solid right field, and he’s hit lefties better over the past three seasons. His bat has been a bit below average over the past two years on the whole, but he could be an affordable short-term option.
  • Ryan Braun (36): Braun’s $15MM mutual option will likely be bought out ($4MM), but the slugger still showed that he can hit in 2019: .282/.343/.505. Braun has averaged only 460 PAs per year dating back to 2017 and has been tried out a bit at first base.
  • Robbie Grossman (31): The A’s gave Grossman a career-high 482 PAs last year, but his production dipped. After three above-average seasons, he hit .240/.334/.348. The switch-hitter is a walk machine (career 12.7%) who has greatly improved his defense in recent seasons.

Versatile Infielder/Outfielders

  • Marwin Gonzalez (32): The ultra-versatile Gonzalez can play all four infield spots and both outfield corners. He signed later in Spring Training last year but after shaking off some rust through the first two weeks of the regular season, he slashed .274/.331/.435 through his final 103 games (426 PAs)
  • Brad Miller (31): Miller is something of a “jack of all trades, master of none,” but his 2019 campaign was a productive — albeit in a tiny sample of 170 plate appearances. He’s struggled to produce at a consistent level, but Miller keeps landing big league gigs as a bench piece.
  • Leury Garcia (30): Garcia saw a career-high 618 PAs last year and hit .279/.310/.378. He doesn’t walk much, but Garcia has hit .270 or better in three straight seasons while adding some value on the bases and playing six positions (all three outfield spots, second base, third base, shortstop).

Part-Time Lefty Bats

  • Jay Bruce (34): Bruce hit lefties better than righties in a small sample last year, but platoon issues have been a theme for much of his career. The power is still huge (26 homers, .306 ISO, 333 PAs in 2019), but Bruce’s days as a regular might be behind him.
  • Matt Joyce (36): Platoon issues notwithstanding, Joyce is a strong source of OBP thanks to an always-strong walk rate that has ticked up to 15 percent over the past four years.
  • Nick Markakis (37): An increasingly crowded outfield should limit Markakis’ time if play is able to resume in 2020. He keeps on hitting righties and is lauded as a clubhouse leader, but Markakis is a .265/.319/.363 hitter against lefties over the past five seasons.

Part-Time Righty Bats

  • Yoenis Cespedes (35): Cespedes hasn’t topped 81 games since 2016 and didn’t play at all in 2019. Everyone know how good he can be when he’s healthy, but who knows whether we’ll ever see that version of “La Potencia” again?
  • Steven Souza Jr. (32): Souza’s entire 2019 season was wiped out by a catastrophic spring knee injury. He has a recent 30-homer season on his resume, but the stoppage of play in 2020 isn’t doing him any favors in terms of reestablishing himself.
  • Hunter Pence (38): Pence posted a monster half season with the Rangers last year and returned to the Giants on a one-year deal, so he’ll see some outfield work if play picks back up. By the time 2021 rolls around, DH at-bats like the ones he saw in Texas might be more crucial.

Club Options to Watch

  • Brett Gardner ($10MM option w/ $2.5MM buyout) and Adam Eaton ($10.5MM option w/ $1.5MM buyout) are both plenty productive veterans. If either of these options is bought out, it seems likely to be due to a dip in production that calls into question their status as a regular.

Obligatory Mention

  • Giancarlo Stanton will be able to opt out of the remaining seven years and $218MM on his contract, but that seemed like a far-fetched concept even before a February calf injury left him questionable for the previously scheduled opener. The slugger isn’t getting that kind of coin in free agency, but perhaps the extended downtime will help him to heal up and avoid the IL in the future.

The Mariners Might Have Found A Core Piece For The Future

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The Mariners’ trade for Tom Murphy a little over a year ago didn’t turn heads. Murphy had once been a notable prospect in the Rockies’ organization, but the shine had seemingly worn off. He saw sporadic action for Colorado between 2015-18, but his .219/.271/.439 line in 210 cumulative plate appearances was underwhelming. Even more disheartening, the Rockies themselves seemingly soured on him. Over those four seasons, the club gave more playing time to all of Tony Wolters, Nick Hundley, Chris Iannetta and Dustin Garneau, en route to largely underwhelming results. Even amidst that suboptimal situation, Murphy didn’t earn himself a long look.

The out-of-options Murphy bounced from the Rockies to the Giants on waivers last spring. After San Francisco decided he wasn’t in line to make the active roster, they shipped him to Seattle for a minimal return (minor-league pitcher Jesus Ozoria). That might have been a coup.

Murphy shined in 2019, his most extensive action to date. He and Omar Narváez quietly combined for a 121 wRC+, the best offensive production by a catching tandem in MLB. Murphy was a big part of that, having hit .273/.324/.535 (126 wRC+) with 18 home runs in 281 plate appearances. Unlike the bat-first Narváez, Murphy also rated well defensively. He drew plaudits from Baseball Prospectus for his blocking and pitch framing, while his 39% caught stealing rate was well above-average. All told, he rated as a top 25 defender at the position by both Defensive Runs Saved and BP’s Fielding Runs Above Average.

Pairing huge power production with above-average defense, Murphy was one of the game’s most valuable catchers last season. His 3.2 fWAR ranked fifth at the position, trailing J.T. Realmuto, Yasmani Grandal, Mitch Garver and Christian Vázquez. Of that group, only fellow breakout slugger Garver logged a partial season’s worth of playing time as Murphy did.

It’s unlikely Murphy will maintain that level of production moving forward, as there are some red flags in his offensive profile. His .340 BABIP masked a 31% strikeout rate. That’ll almost certainly regress moving forward, particularly given Murphy’s fly-ball heavy approach and below-average speed. He’s also never been one to draw many walks, and that continued even amidst his power barrage. But even if Murphy ends up a low-OBP hitter, there’s plenty to like about the profile.

The right-handed hitter drew plaudits for his raw power as a prospect. While the baseball composition no doubt played some role in his home run frenzy, he hits the ball hard and frequently gets it in the air. He’s a strong bet to hit for much more power than is typical of the position. And Murphy’s 71.1% contact rate, while below-average, isn’t catastrophic. Skeptical Mariners’ fans could have visions of Mike Zunino. Zunino, though, never connected on more than 67.4% of his swings in a season. There are some similarities in the players’ general profiles, but Murphy already makes more contact than Seattle’s former catcher ever has.

The 29-year-old looks like a potential core piece of the Mariners’ rebuild. Narváez has been traded away, so Murphy has his clearest path to playing time yet (although Austin Nola was expected to be a highly-utilized #2 before the shutdown). Controlled through 2023, he’s squarely within the club’s anticipated contention window.

Transaction Retrospection: The Rocky Colavito/Harvey Kuenn Blockbuster

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Pop quiz, who were the AL and NL batting champions last season?

If you didn’t immediately have the names of Tim Anderson (.335) and Christian Yelich (.329) at the tip of your tongue, don’t worry.  Given how modern statistics have lessened the importance of batting average in recent years, the batting title doesn’t carry nearly as much prestige in 2019 as it did for much of baseball’s history.  One could even make the case that the home run crown lost some its luster last year since so many players were suddenly clearing the fences — a record 6776 homers were hit during the 2019 season, with Pete Alonso (53) and Jorge Soler (48) leading the way in their respective leagues.

All this being said, you can imagine the furor that would have been generated this offseason if a Yelich-for-Alonso deal had been arranged between the Brewers and Mets, or if the White Sox and Royals decided to swap Soler and Anderson in a one-for-one deal.  Ultimately, any straight-up trade of star players is going to generate headlines, though the idea of a “home run champ for batting champ” trade makes for just as intriguing a concept today as it did 60 years ago yesterday, when the Indians dealt Rocky Colavito to the Tigers for Harvey Kuenn.

Both players were All-Stars in 1959, with Colavito finishing fourth in AL MVP voting and Kuenn in eighth place.  Colavito’s 42 home runs tied Harmon Killebrew for the American League lead, as “The Rock” managed to top his 41-homer performance from a season earlier.  Over four full seasons with the Tribe, Colavito has already hit 129 home runs and slashed .271/.364/.533 over 2166 plate appearances, making him an instant superstar to the Cleveland faithful.

However, Colavito hit “only” .257 in 1959, which led Indians GM Frank Lane to balk at Colavito’s demand for a raise for the 1960 season.  For younger fans used to today’s guaranteed contracts and arbitration structure, players in 1960 had to negotiate their salaries on a year-to-year basis, and since teams had total control over player movement due to the reserve clause, even some of the game’s biggest stars had little leverage in salary negotiations.  In fact, there was also some dispute between Kuenn and the Tigers in the batting champ’s own contract talks heading into the 1960 season.

Though Colavito and the Indians ultimately worked out a deal for 1960, Lane (known as “Trader Frank” for completing over 400 swaps during his two decades as a GM for five different teams) jumped at the opportunity to move the slugger for a player Lane felt was a better all-around talent.  While Kuenn’s reputation has been somewhat diminished by his decline after this trade, it should be noted that he was a very good ballplayer in his prime.  From 1953-59, Kuenn hit .314/.360/.426 with 53 home runs, while leading the league in hits four times, doubles three times, and once in batting average thanks to his career-best .353 mark in 1959.

As steady as Kuenn was, however, 1959 was by far his best offensive year, and it was still only somewhat better (141 OPS+, 145 wRC+) than Colavito’s production (133 OPS+, 130 wRC+) that same season.  Kuenn was also almost three years older than Colavito, and of course didn’t have Colavito’s folk hero status in Cleveland.  Indians fans were instantly enraged by the trade, while Lane was confident that he had made a shrewd move.  In an infamous quote that has gone down in Tribe lore, Lane told reporters that dealing Colavito for Kuenn was like trading hamburger for steak.

In 1960, it seemed like the Indians may have at least broken even on the deal.  Kuenn hit .308/.379/.416 over 537 PA, good for a 118 OPS+ and wRC+ through modern analytical eyes.  Colavito, meanwhile, far outpaced Kuenn in the power department by hitting 35 homers and collecting 87 RBI over 616 PA, but also batted .249/.317/.474 (107 wRC+, 108 OPS+) in his first season in Detroit.

It didn’t take long for Trader Frank to lose interest in Kuenn, however, as Kuenn was traded to the Giants in the 1960-61 offseason for left-hander Johnny Antonelli and outfielder Willie Kirkland.  Antonelli’s MLB career ended after the 1961 season, while Kirkland put up some decent power numbers along with a low average (ironically, making him something of the version of Colavito that Lane feared Colavito would become).  Kuenn played six more years in the big leagues and had a couple more productive seasons, though he never again approached his 1959 peak.

As for Colavito, he rebounded from his 1960 down year to become one of the game’s most fearsome bats of the 1960’s, hitting .266/.362/.470 with 210 home runs from 1961-68 despite playing in a notoriously pitcher-friendly era.  This included a second stint in Cleveland in 1965-67, as the Indians (with Lane no longer in the organization) reacquired Colavito for a return visit.

Cleveland fans may already be cringing at any recollection of “The Curse Of Rocky Colavito,” which was the title of a 1994 book by longtime Cleveland sportswriter Terry Pluto.  After dealing Colavito, the Indians didn’t reach the postseason again until the 1995 season, and the club had only six winning seasons between 1960-1993.  The Colavito trade was hardly the only reason for the Indians’ long slide, of course, and it arguably wasn’t even the starting point of the team’s downfall — nor was it even the most damaging trade the Indians made with the Tigers that same week.  Just five days prior to the Colavito deal, Cleveland sent Norm Cash to Detroit for infielder Steve Demeter, who went on to appear in just four games for the Tribe and never again played in the majors after the 1960 season.  Cash, meanwhile, proceeded to rip up American League pitching for the next 15 years in a Tigers uniform.

Still, the Cash trade never seemed to loom as large in the minds of Tribe supporters, perhaps since Cash never actually played a game in a Cleveland uniform.  (The Indians acquired Cash from the White Sox as part of a seven-player deal that saw Minnie Minoso head back to Chicago earlier in the 1959-60 offseason.)  Colavito had already become a fan favorite at the time of the deal, and continued to remain a presence in Cleveland for years afterwards, both in his return stint as a player and then as a coach and broadcaster for the Indians.

Trading one star player for another was as relatively unusual in 1960 and it would be today, though in some ways, the story of Colavito-for-Kuenn has a lot of parallels to modern-day front office moves.  Money was naturally a factor, as both Colavito and Kuenn were coming off rather contentious contract negotiations, and it seemed as though Lane had misgivings about continuing to pay top dollar for what he felt was a power-only type of ballplayer.

In today’s game, you might see a front office just non-tender an arbitration-eligible slugger rather than work out a trade — just ask Chris Carter or C.J. Cron.  Likewise, many a current GM would undoubtedly prefer more of a well-rounded hitter than a power-only type, though of course Lane was far off the mark both in evaluating Colavito as a one-dimensional hitter, and in betting that Kuenn would continue his 1959 form.

Losing Colavito was a tough beat for Indians fans, though since the Tribe have been regular postseason participants since Pluto’s book was published, maybe the “curse” is technically no more.  Of course, Cleveland also hasn’t won a World Series since 1948 (the longest streak of any team in baseball), so maybe the baseball gods have more of an issue with the Tribe than just the Colavito deal.  Maybe fate simply prefers hamburger to steak.

The Twins’ Breakout Slugger

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Last July, a happier time when something called Major League Baseball was actually taking place, I wrote a piece singing the praises of Twins catcher Mitch Garver. At that point, Garver was amid a breakout season in which he served as a key member of the Twins’ high-powered offense, aka the Bomba Squad – a unit that piled up an all-time record 307 home runs. Garver contributed about 10 percent of those, totaling 31 and finishing as one of five Twins who hit 30 or more.

Garver wasn’t just a one-trick pony who offered just power last year, either, as he wound up with an outstanding .273/.365/.630 line over his 359 plate appearances. Because he was part of a behind-the-plate timeshare with Jason Castro, Garver made just 93 appearances on the season. That means he hit a homer every three games; he also wound up with a .357 isolated power mark that paced all players who amassed 300-plus trips to the plate (AL MVP Mike Trout and AL Rookie of the Year Yordan Alvarez were his closest competitors).

Speaking of Trout, he has a new teammate in Castro, who will be the Angels’ starting catcher in 2020 if a season ever gets underway. The Twins, meanwhile, are now poised to hand the reins to Garver, whom free-agent addition Alex Avila will back up. Judging by what he did last season, Garver has a chance to end up as the Twins’ most productive catcher since Joe Mauer’s heyday donning the tools of ignorance.

It wasn’t just a matter of Garver posting all-world bottom-line production with the bat last season. He also ranked among Statcast’s top hitters in one important category after another. To name some examples, Garver was in the 85th percentile or better in average exit velocity, hard-hit percentage, expected slugging percentage and expected weighted on-base average (.380, compared to a real wOBA of .405). He was also remarkably consistent, evidenced by a 155 wRC+ in the first half and a 154 mark in the second. Furthermore, the right-handed slugger managed numbers that were easily above average against lefties and righties alike (198 wRC+ versus LHPs, 130 off RHPs).

It’s not easy to find a red flag when it comes to Garver’s 2019 offensive outburst. Adding to his appeal, he performed pretty well behind the plate. Sure, Garver threw out a paltry 16 percent of would-be base stealers (league average was 11 points better), but he did finish a solid 28th in Baseball Prospectus’ Framing Runs Above Average metric and a slightly better 24th as a pitch framer.

All said, the Twins seem to have stumbled on a gem in Garver, who joined the organization as a ninth-round pick in 2013 and who appears to have developed into a formidable all-around contributor. The 29-year-old was quietly one of the reasons the Twins won 101 games and an American League Central title last season. If they’re going to enjoy similar success going forward, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Garver continue to have a big hand in it.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Poll: High-Dollar Relief Signings

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Since we’re left to imagine baseball for the time being, it seems natural to ask for MLBTR reader opinions on what might’ve been. We wouldn’t know much by this point had the season begun as usual, but we’d at least have a look at the health and stuff of the (relatively few) relievers that received big contracts over the offseason.

Let’s run through the $10MM+ bullpen contracts and then get to the question …

Will Smith, LHP: three years, $40MM with Braves — This one cost the Atlanta org draft compensation. And it’s the biggest reliever deal of the winter. But it’s arguably worth it for a guy that turned in a 2.76 ERA with a big 13.2 K/9 in 2019.

Drew Pomeranz, LHP: four years, $34MM with Padres — Everyone’s jaws are still on the floor here, given that Pomeranz nearly washed out with the Giants by the middle of the the ’19 campaign. His second half resurgence as a high-grade reliever was compelling — he not only carried a 1.88 ERA but struck out nearly half the batters he faced — but this was a bold strike for the Friars.

Will Harris, RHP: three years, $24MM with Nationals — He isn’t young and doesn’t have high-octane stuff, but Harris has just plain gotten the job done for quite some time. The veteran spins the ball about as well as anyone and owned a 2.36 ERA in his 297 innings with the Astros.

Chris Martin, RHP: two years, $14MM with Braves — You can save your Coldplay jokes. Martin was absolutely legit in 2019, fanning 65 batters while issuing just a handful of walks and compiling a 3.40 ERA in his 55 2/3 frames.

Daniel Hudson, RHP: two years, $11MM with Nationals — If you focus on the 2.47 ERA he compiled in 73 innings, and add in a glance at his postseason moments, this might look like a complete bargain. But Hudson’s peripherals didn’t support greater earnings than this. It could still be a nice buy if he can keep the momentum going upon his return to D.C.

Dellin Betances, RHP: one year, $10.5MM with Mets — The former star Yankees reliever decided to stay in his native New York on an interesting deal with the cross-town Mets. At his best, he’s a monster that can dominate in multi-inning appearances. But Betances is coming back from some significant injuries and hadn’t regained all his velocity in his brief MLB showing last year.

Blake Treinen, RHP: one year, $10MM with Dodgers — It’s not often a non-tendered player inks for more money than he was projected to earn in arbitration. That it happened here suggests that Treinen — who undeniably possesses thrilling stuff — drew significant interest when he hit the open market.

The question: which of these deals do you think will deliver the most excess value to the team? (Link for app users. Response order randomized.)

Which was the best bullpen buy?
Will Smith 29.05% (1,196 votes)
Dellin Betances 19.24% (792 votes)
Blake Treinen 17.61% (725 votes)
Will Harris 11.71% (482 votes)
Daniel Hudson 9.72% (400 votes)
Drew Pomeranz 7.43% (306 votes)
Chris Martin 5.25% (216 votes)
Total Votes: 4,117

When A Braves Superstar Moved Across The Diamond

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While going through the MLBTR archives a little while ago, I came across a June 2017 story that I had completely forgotten about. Title: “Freddie Freeman: “Mindset” Is To Move To Third Base.”

Back then, our own Jeff Todd wrote of the Braves superstar: “Freeman played the hot corner in high school, but the eight-year MLB veteran has lined up exclusively at first base as a professional. Needless to say, this apparent attempt to move back to third in the middle of the season represents quite a surprising turn of events. Freeman says he himself proposed the idea to the team, so obviously he’s on board; it remains unknown just what the organization would need to see to allow him to line up there.”

Freeman’s suggestion came in the wake of a fractured wrist, an injury that sidelined him from May 17 through July 4. The Braves reacted to that injury by acquiring first baseman Matt Adams from the Cardinals for minor league infielder Juan Yepez on May 20. Adams was at times a productive Cardinals hitter from 2012-17, but the club decided he was an unnecessary piece with Matt Carpenter holding down first base.

Initially, the Adams pickup looked like a stroke of genius by the Braves. Adams absolutely raked in their uniform through late June, and with a desire to keep his bat in the lineup, Freeman volunteered to move across the diamond. The Braves, one game under .500 (40-41) when Freeman returned at the halfway point, were willing to give it a shot.

Ultimately, Freeman to third was a short-term experiment. Freeman lasted just 16 games there before manager Brian Snitker announced on Aug. 1 that he’d go back to first on a permanent basis, thanks in part to an injury to left fielder Matt Kemp. Adams, whose bat had cooled off at that point, took Kemp’s place in left but only lasted with the Braves for the rest of the season. He signed with the Nationals after 2017 and has since had two stints with them and another with the Cardinals, but he had to settle for a minor league contract with the Mets this past offseason after a so-so 2019 in Washington.

Freeman, on the other hand, has indeed stayed at first in Atlanta since the team ended his run at the hot corner. And Freeman has remained one of the top hitters in the sport since then, thereby helping the club to back-to-back National League East titles after it spiraled to a dismal 72-90 record in 2017. He’s the owner of a .293/.379/.504 line with 227 home runs (including a career-high 38 in 2019) and 35.7 rWAR/34.6 fWAR since he broke into the majors in 2010. Now 30 years old, Freeman will continue to hold down first for at least a little bit longer in Atlanta, which signed him to an eight-year, $135MM extension prior to 2014. That pact still features another two years and $44MM.

It’s interesting to ponder how the Braves would have handled the corner infield positions during their division-winning seasons had Freeman stuck at third. For instance, would they have ever signed third baseman Josh Donaldson (now a Twin) to a $23MM guarantee prior to last season? Maybe, maybe not. Regardless, Freeman’s ephemeral stint at third will go down as a fun bit of trivia in what has been a tremendous career for the four-time All-Star first baseman.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Ace-Off: Buehler v. Bieber

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Two of the preeminent young starters in baseball have emerged in the cities of Los Angeles and Cleveland over the past couple years. With no disrespect to Dodgers great Clayton Kershaw, who’s one of the best to ever take the mound, right-hander Walker Buehler has assumed the mantle of the club’s most valuable starter when you combine age, contract and performance. Meanwhile, the Indians have a similarly enviable rotation piece to build around in righty Shane Bieber, who joined Buehler among the majors’ most productive pitchers in 2019. So, here’s a question that has no wrong answer: If you had to pick one, which of the two would you choose?

To begin, they’re almost the same age, and they’re under team control for the same number of years. The 25-year-old Buehler won’t be eligible for free agency until after 2024. As a Super Two player, he brings one more pre-arbitration campaign to the table (though it won’t matter if there is no 2020 season). Bieber, who will turn 25 next month, is due to reach free agency at the same time, but he’s in his penultimate pre-arb year.

As for on-field results, Buehler has the edge on Bieber thus far in terms of run prevention. Excluding 9 1/3 rough debut innings as a reliever in 2017, Buehler has parlayed a 96 mph-plus fastball into a sterling 2.98 ERA/3.02 FIP with 10.3 K/9 and 2.08 BB/9 across 319 2/3 innings over the past two seasons.

Bieber also began to make his mark in 2018, and while his 4.55 ERA didn’t wow anyone, his peripherals indicated that he deserved better. Although he doesn’t match Buehler’s velocity (Bieber averages 93 mph on his heater), he nonetheless broke out in earnest last season. Bieber notched a 3.28 ERA/3.32 FIP and put up 10.88 K/9 against 1.68 BB/9 in 214 1/3 frames – the second-highest total in the game (only AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander amassed a larger amount) and 32 more than Buehler’s 182 1/3. Buehler had a very similar year otherwise, though, posting a 3.26 ERA/3.01 FIP and recording 10.61 K/9 versus 1.83 BB/9. He further put himself on the map with 12 2/3 exemplary innings of one-run ball in a playoff series loss to the eventual World Series champion Nationals.

It’s obvious there’s a ton to like about this tandem. Buehler and Bieber have not only already established themselves as elite pitchers in their mid-20s, but perhaps elite players in general. Going forward, however, which one would you take to head up your rotation? (Poll link for app users)

Walker Buehler or Shane Bieber?
Buehler 74.44% (3,366 votes)
Bieber 25.56% (1,156 votes)
Total Votes: 4,522

Does Baseball Have Its Next Zobrist?

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You tend to hear talk of “The Next [insert player’s name]” involving guys whose careers change something about the way we think about a sport. It’s often the earth-shaking stars — Babe Ruth, Michael Jordan, Lawrence Taylor types. But not always.

In baseball, we’ve heard talk for years of “The Next Ben Zobrist” or “Team X’s Ben Zobrist.” It’s one of those things that you tended to understand when you heard it. Zobrist embodied something new and different: he was a high-end, star-level performer masquerading as a regular old utility guy. Moving around the diamond, featuring a plate-discipline-driven offensive skillset, and playing in Tampa Bay … it took some time for Zobrist to make it on the map. But once he finally got the recognition he deserved, he became the archetype of a new breed of player.

While the rest of the league caught on to the idea of moving guys around the diamond more liberally, we haven’t yet seen a single player match Zobrist as a Swiss Army knife that’s actually really good at all its functions over a sustained, multi-season span. Now, as Zobrist rides off into the sunset, Jeff McNeil of the Mets promises to change that …

The then-Devil Rays originally landed Zobrist from the Astros — in exchange for Aubrey Huff — way back in the early days of MLBTR (July of 2006). Some guy named Tim Dierkes wrote up the trade, characterizing Zobrist as a “solid but not spectacular shortstop prospect” of the sort who’s a “good guy to have around, gets on base, but not a star.”

Thankfully, Tim’s readers stuck with him despite that whiff. (I doubt I’ve had any of those, so … no need to go back and check, thanks.) In truth, the description was plenty fair at the time. It took a while for Zobrist to emerge.

Zobrist was a mess in his first two MLB seasons, putting up -1.7 rWAR and -1.9 fWAR cumulatively for the Tampa Bay organization. When the club dropped the devil from its name in 2008, Zobrist’s age-27 season, his angelic side emerged. He earned his way back for another shot and showed quite well in a 62-game run.

The next year opened with Zobrist as an obvious choice for the MLB roster. He ultimately emerged as an outright star … on paper, at least, while awaiting recognition … by turning in 599 plate appearances of .297/.405/.543 hitting with 27 home runs and nearly as many walks (91) as strikeouts (104). And he did so while appearing at every spot on the diamond aside from the battery (in addition to taking a turn at DH).

Like his forefather, McNeil was a legitimate but non-elite prospect when drafted. (The former went in the sixth round, the latter in the twelfth.) Neither player was hyped much on his way up the ladder; in both cases, they showed excellent plate discipline and polished hit tools … but little in the way of home run power.

The skillsets are rather similar, as are the timelines. Actually, having recently celebrated his 28th birthday, McNeil is a bit ahead of Zobrist’s curve. And his own versatility is proving equally useful to the Mets as Zobrist’s did to the Rays.

McNeil lined up mostly at second base when he was first called upon in 2018. He graded rather well there and could certainly have just been kept at the position for the long haul. But the Mets had other ideas. As they cooked up a surprising swap for Edwin Diaz, the Mets reportedly discussed McNeil with the Mariners. Fortunately for the New York org, it didn’t ultimately have to put him in. (Ill-conceived though the trade was, as we recently explored on YouTube, losing McNeil would’ve made it an even greater calamity.) But adding Robinson Cano meant bumping McNeil off of second base. He did have a lot of experience at the hot corner on the farm, but McNeil had spent very little time in the outfield. As it turned out, McNeil handled more 2019 frames on the grass than on the dirt, grading out as a capable defender no matter where he was thrown

While the glovework is what primarily spurs the comparison, there’s a lot connecting these two at the plate as well. McNeil is rather more dependent upon his ability to maintain a really lofty batting average to get on base. While he rarely strikes out, he’s not as handy at drawing walks as was Zobrist. But with a .321 batting average through 815 career plate appearances … so far, so good.

While McNeil had ramped up his power output in his breakout upper-minors showing in 2018 — thus forcing his way up in the midst of a busted Mets campaign — it was hard to know if it’d carry forward. He hit only three dingers in his first 63 games and 248 plate appearances in the majors. But McNeil launched 23 long balls in 567 trips to the dish in 2019, his first full big league campaign. That’s not an overly impressive tally in the streamlined-orb era, but it does suggest that McNeil can find a way to expand his contact skills into loft when the offensive environment supports that kind of approach. Zobrist never came within seven long balls of his first full-season tally, though that certainly didn’t stop him from producing a ton of value at the plate.

Why McNeil and not some other would-be Zobrists? Well, to this point, McNeil owns a 141 wRC+ at the plate — figures reminiscent of Zobrist’s monster early output. Whit Merrifield has perhaps the best claim, and he’s quite a good player in his own right. But he’s also a different beast — rather less bat (109 career wRC+) but with greater value on the bases. David Fletcher has versatility on his side, but he’s not even an average overall hitter over the same approximate span as McNeil. Likewise, Brock Holt doesn’t have a consistent record at the plate. Tommy Edman and Cavan Biggio each had early success, but neither has completed a full MLB season.

So … will the comparison hold? Zobrist took a bit of a step back at the plate in his second full MLB season but rebounded soon thereafter. And he continued to deliver multi-faceted value until he ran out of gas at the tail end. All said, Zobrist delivered 44.5 rWAR and 44.4 fWAR over this 14-year career.

McNeil has a long way to go to reach those levels of overall productivity. Statcast numbers suggest he was a bit fortunate last year, when he carried a .355 xwOBA and .385 wOBA. But even with a bit of a step back, we’d be looking at a high-quality offensive performer who (like Zobrist) contributes in the field and on the bases. Though McNeil is presently slated to line up at third base for the Mets, that could still evolve over time. Perhaps he’ll even end up reprising his ever-shifting 2019 role for certain seasons. Whether or not it’s ultimately utilized, that flexibility will help immensely when it comes to managing the roster during and between seasons.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2020-21 MLB Free Agent Class: Designated Hitters

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In looking ahead to next winter’s crop of free agents, we’ve already profiled the catchers, first basemen, second basemen, shortstops, third basemen and center fielders who figure to be available (barring extensions between the time the transaction freeze is lifted and the free-agent market opens).

Next year’s market is a bit unique in that it features a few more pure designated hitters than one might expect to find in a given offseason. While it’s true that any player can function as a DH and that some teams prefer not to dedicate just one slugger to that DH position, most of the players in this bucket will only be considered by American League clubs that have ample DH opportunities available. Since there aren’t many on the list, I won’t bother breaking them down into tiers…

  • Nelson Cruz: The Boomstick will turn 41 in July of 2021, but he remains one of MLB’s most potent hitters. His 2019 season in Minnesota featured a .311/.392/.639 slash with 41 big flies and 26 doubles. Cruz has played all of nine games in the outfield since the conclusion of the 2016 season and didn’t play so much as an inning of defense with the Twins last year. He and the Twins had reportedly talked about a new deal prior to the transaction freeze, so it’s possible they’ll tack on another year to his time with the “Bomba Squad.”
  • J.D. Martinez: JDM chose not to opt out of the remaining three years and $62.5MM on his Red Sox deal at the beginning of this past offseason, but he has another opt out this winter. With two years and $38.75MM left on the deal, a return to the open market seems more plausible this time around — assuming some form of season is played. Martinez has hit .317/.392/.593 with 79 homers, 70 doubles and four triples in two years with Boston, where he’s made 200 appearances as DH. He’ll be 33 in 2021.
  • Edwin Encarnacion: The White Sox hold a $12MM option ($2MM buyout) on the 37-year-old slugger, so like Martinez, he might not actually reach the market. Encarnacion has belted at least 34 home runs in each season since 2012, but he hasn’t logged even a half season’s worth of innings at first base since 2014. He’ll split time with Jose Abreu between first and DH with the ChiSox, but it’s highly unlikely that any team would sign Encarnacion as a full-time first baseman heading into what would be his age-38 season.
  • Shin-Soo Choo: In fairness to Choo, he split his time between DH and the outfield corners pretty evenly last year … but the results weren’t pretty. Choo’s -17 Defensive Runs Saved, -14.1 UZR/150 and -12 Outs Above Average were among the worst marks for any outfielder in the game. He’ll turn 39 in July of 2021, and there’s little reason to expect a late renaissance with the glove. Choo is still an OBP-machine with some pop in his bat, though; last year he batted .265/.371/.455 with 24 dingers, and he even swiped 15 bases as well.
  • Hunter Pence: An NL team did sign Pence, so perhaps he’s not quite restricted to DH work, but Pence is a clear bat-first player at this point. The Rangers game him 46 starts at DH — hence Choo playing in the outfield as much as he did — and it probably would’ve been more were they not rotating the two veteran sluggers. A resurgent Pence slashed .297/.358/.552 and smacked 18 dingers in 316 plate appearances last year after reworking his swing in the Dominican Winter League. If he hits again in 2019, someone will have interest in adding that bat and that personality to the roster. He’ll turn 38 next April.

You could certainly argue others have a place on this list — someone might roll the dice on a 35-year-old Yoenis Cespedes or a 34-year-old Jay Bruce in this role — but this quintet’s 2019 production and general track record make them the likeliest DH targets for clubs seeking a short-term jolt in the lineup.

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