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What Happens To Extension Talks During The Coronavirus Hiatus?

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For the time being, MLB rosters are not locked. There’s still a trickle of transactional news. Odds are, we’ll see some sort of agreement to freeze roster movement — including, presumably, an orderly process for tying up any pending decisions and then ramping back up in advance of a hopeful resumption of play. Once that’s sorted, there could be a flurry of moves before the hold goes into effect.

But really, that’s beside the point when it comes to extensions. Deals can be negotiated at any time, even if it’s necessary to wait to make them official. Even if there’s a halt to transactions for a stretch, teams and agents and players can talk about their futures.

It’s hardly an optimal time to be broadcasting a major new contract, for a variety of reasons. But we are seeing NFL dealmaking happen as if the football season will begin as normal. And it probably behooves us all to keep one eye on the future.

In the baseball context, the major free agent action was already completed — Yasiel Puig excepted. But we were right smack dab in the middle of extension season when the coronavirus crisis hit. And there was some indication that, on the heels of a robust free agent market, we were due for a varied and voluminous slate of new deals.

In some respects, it’s the close in-person proximity of Spring Training that makes extensions so prevalent. But it’s also a function of MLB’s calendar, most of the rest of which is occupied by the playing of games or execution of other business.

Under the present circumstances, there’s quite a strong case for utilizing the time off to consider longer pacts. The time pressure of the coming season has been released momentarily, but it’ll eventually ramp back up and help finalize talks. But whatever truncated second spring ultimate occurs later this year isn’t likely to represent an optimal time for long-term negotiations. Teams will be slammed with season preparations and unusual logistical demands.

If there’s to be another run of new deals, it’ll likely emerge from prior talks that continue during the present lull, even absent the ready ability to chat face-to-face. But the halt to sports also injects potentially massive uncertainty that could itself impact negotiations. Players’ 2020 salaries are already set, but they’re presumably not going to be paid out in full. Some players may be more inclined to secure their financial futures; some teams may wish to avoid long-fuse risks while looking ahead to clogged revenue streams.

No doubt the onset of the coronavirus shutdown halted many negotiations in mid-stream. Perhaps some deals were already reached in principle before the league went on ice. In all periods of uncertainty, there’s added risk and added opportunity. It will be interesting to see how players and teams approach extensions over the coming months — whether or not a moratorium on formal dealmaking forces us to wait for the outcomes.

 

MLBTR Poll: How Good Are The Mets?

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It wasn’t an especially aggressive offseason for the Mets, a team that hasn’t made the playoffs since 2016, but perhaps it didn’t need to be. After all, even though the franchise, its ownership and general manager Brodie Van Wagenen are often maligned, team brass has assembled a rather talented roster. Last year’s Mets amassed 86 wins – the sixth-highest total in the National League – and are set to bring back their best contributors from then if and when the season gets underway.

Of course, a pair of award winners are at the forefront of the roster. Right-hander Jacob deGrom has earned back to back National League Cy Youngs. There’s little reason to believe he or first baseman Pete Alonso, who pounded 53 home runs in 2019 to earn NL Rookie of the Year honors, are going to let up. And there’s plenty of proven talent supporting that pair, with an appealing rotation (albeit one that lost Zack Wheeler to the division-rival Phillies in free agency) that will consist of some combination of deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman, Rick Porcello, Steven Matz and Michael Wacha.

Meanwhile, a position player cast that finished 2019 seventh in wRC+ and 11th in fWAR is returning the same key complements to Alonso. Hitting machine Jeff McNeil, Michael Conforto (currently down with an oblique strain, but he could be fine by the time the season starts), Brandon Nimmo, J.D. Davis, Dominic Smith, Wilson Ramos and Amed Rosario haven’t gone anywhere. Neither has potential Hall of Fame second baseman Robinson Cano, for whom there appears nowhere to go up after a shockingly poor, injury-marred first season as a Met. And Yoenis Cespedes seems to be progressing after three straight injury-ruined campaigns of his own.

Cano and Cespedes make for potential rebound candidates, as do multiple members of a Mets bullpen that fell on its face a year ago despite Van Wagenen’s efforts to improve it during the previous winter. Edwin Diaz, who joined the Mets from the Mariners in the Cano blockbuster that has blown up in New York’s face so far, and big-money signing Jeurys Familia were terrible. Considering their strong track records, it seems fair to expect some sort of bounce-back effort this season. Likewise, former Yankees star Dellin Betances – who came to the Mets in free agency – is also seeking a return to form. But that’s on account of injuries that all but wiped out his 2019, not any kind of decline in performance. The hope is that those three will get back to normal and join Seth Lugo, Justin Wilson, Robert Gsellman, Brad Brach and likely Wacha to comprise a dominant bullpen. There’s loads of risk in that bunch, but the upside is evident.

It was an odd winter for the Mets, who had to can rookie skipper Carlos Beltran before he ever managed a game, thanks to his role in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal. To the chagrin of many Mets fans, they also saw a potential sale of the franchise fall apart. Off-field turmoil aside, Beltran’s replacement, Luis Rojas, looks to be inheriting a good situation. However, it should be a dogfight in the NL East, which could feature as many as four contenders (the Braves, Nationals and Phillies are the others).

Before the coronavirus turned the world on its head, back when baseball was supposed to consist of 162 games, PECOTA projected 87.9 wins and a division title for the Mets. Normally, it would be customary to ask how many victories you expect them to rack up, but a 162-game season is a pipe dream at this point. Therefore, let’s take the simpler route: If a baseball season does happen, will the Mets make the playoffs?

(Poll link for app users)

This Date In Transactions History: The Return Of Andy Pettitte

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It was on this date eight years ago that one of the members of the Yankees’ famed Core Four came out of retirement to return to the mound. Left-hander Andy Pettitte rejoined two other players from that group (longtime teammates Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera) in the Bronx, agreeing to what proved to be a bargain contract for the club. It was a minor league deal worth up to $2.5MM – money well spent for the Yankees.

Pettitte retired after the 2010 season, his 16th in the majors and his 13th as a Yankee, but felt the urge to pitch again while working as a spring guest instructor for the team prior to the 2012 campaign. As one of the most accomplished pitchers in the history of the organization, the Yankees were happy to welcome back Pettitte, then 39 years old, even though they already had six other arms (CC Sabathia, Michael Pineda, Hiroki Kuroda, Phil Hughes, Freddy Garcia and Ivan Nova) for five rotation spots. But it turns out that they needed Pettite that year. Pineda didn’t pitch after succumbing to a torn labrum following the Pettitte reunion, while Garcia and Nova turned in ineffective seasons.

As someone who signed so close to the regular season, Pettitte took time to ramp up before his return to the mound became official. He didn’t make his 2012 debut until May 13, a 6-2 loss to Seattle in which he yielded four earned runs on 6 1/3 innings.

Pettitte was encouraged afterward, though, saying: “I just cannot believe how comfortable this is for me. I don’t know how to explain it.”

Indeed, while Pettitte’s first game back didn’t produce ideal results for him or his team, he returned to his old ways from that point forward. Pettitte tossed eight shutout frames five days later in a 4-0 win over the Reds. He continued to throw well in the coming weeks, but Pettitte fractured his left fibula in a June 27 start versus Cleveland and didn’t get back until the end of September. Pettitte posted three solid outings to conclude the season, ending it with 12 starts and 75 1/3 frames of 2.87 ERA ball with a lofty grounder percentage of 56.3 and 8.24 K/9 against 2.51 BB/9. His stellar performance contributed to a 95-victory, AL East-winning campaign for the Yankees, who edged out the Orioles by two games.

The Yankees couldn’t have realistically asked for more out of Pettitte, but he provided it in October. Typically impervious to the pressure of the postseason, Pettitte combined for 13 2/3 innings of five-run pitching in two starts (one against Baltimore, the other versus Detroit). The Yankees did get by the Orioles in an ALDS that went the distance, but the Tigers overwhelmed them in the ALCS in a four-game sweep.

While Pettitte was unable to claim his sixth World Series title in his first season back, he fared so nicely that it convinced him to stick around for one more year. The Yankees had to pay up that time, inking the three-time All-Star to a $12MM guarantee, but they also got their money’s worth in 2013. Even though New York finished 85-77 and didn’t qualify for the playoffs, Pettitte’s going-out party was one of the highlights of the team’s year. He put the exclamation point on his career with a complete game, one-run performance in Houston (where he pitched from 2004-06) in his last game.

Thanks to Pettitte’s decision to end his first retirement on March 16, 2012, he spent two years further cementing himself as one of the top pitchers in the Yankees’ storied history.

9 NL Central Pitchers Looking For Bounce-Back Years

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Nobody knows when the 2020 Major League Baseball season will begin, but we can still look forward to its start. With that in mind, we’ll continue our series on potential bounce-back players from each division, this time focusing on notable National League Central pitchers whose production fell off from 2018 to ’19.

Craig Kimbrel, RHP, Cubs:

Undoubtedly among the greatest relief pitchers in baseball history, Kimbrel’s numbers careened off a cliff in his first season as a Cub. In fairness, though, Kimbrel didn’t have a normal offseason before finally joining the Cubs on a three-year, $43MM contract. The 31-year-old flamethrower went without a deal until the first week June, and he never really got on track after debuting later that month. Kimbrel battled elbow issues and threw just 20 2/3 innings, over which he allowed 15 earned runs on 21 hits (including a whopping nine home runs) and 12 walks. Although Kimbrel did strike out 30 hitters and continue to throw upward of 96 mph, it wasn’t enough to overcome the other problems. Considering what the Cubs have invested in him, not to mention the losses their bullpen suffered in free agency, it’s a must for him to return to form this year.

Jeremy Jeffress, RHP, Cubs:

Jeffress was a lights-out part of the Brewers’ bullpen in 2018, but last season represented an enormous step backward. In fact, it went so badly for Jeffress that the Brewers – then vying for a playoff spot – released him during the first week of September. Jeffress wound up with a ghastly 5.02 ERA in 52 innings and saw his typical fastball go from 95.3 mph in 2018 to 93.8. He also lost 4 percent on his swinging-strike rate, almost 10 percent on his strikeout rate, and 8 percent on his groundball rate. Consequently, he was only able to secure an $850K guarantee in free agency.

Trevor Bauer, RHP, Reds:

Bauer went from one of the absolute best pitchers in the sport two years ago to someone whom the opposition shelled after the Reds acquired him from the Indians at last summer’s trade deadline. The 29-year-old kept throwing hard, averaging about 95 mph on his fastball, but yielded 57 hits (including 12 home runs) en route to a 6.39 ERA in 56 1/3 innings as a Red. Between the two teams, his combined 4.48 ERA and 4.34 FIP were each more than two runs worse than the production he logged in 2018. Bauer also experienced an almost 7 percent fall in groundball rate, and he wasn’t any kind of Statcast hero, ranking near the middle of the pack in multiple important categories.

Pedro Strop, RHP, Reds:

Strop, 34, had several terrific years with the Cubs, but last season wasn’t one of them. His average fastball dropped by 1.5 mph (93.6), his walk rate spiked to its highest level since 2012 (4.32 BB/9) and he gave up more home runs than ever (1.3 per nine). All of those factors helped lead to career-worst run prevention totals for Strop (4.97 ERA/4.53 FIP), which came at a less-than-ideal time for the pending free agent. Strop’s subpar output last year stopped him from cashing in on the open market, but if he can rebound, the Reds will have a bargain on their hands at $1.825MM.

Chris Archer, RHP, Pirates:

MLBTR’s Steve Adams just took a more in-depth dive into the surprising struggles Archer has gone through as a Pirate. The former Rays standout has been a shell of himself since Pittsburgh acquired him from Tampa Bay in a July 2018 trade that looks incredibly lopsided in the Rays’ favor. But not all hope is lost for Archer, who – at the Pirates’ behest – grew too reliant on a sinking fastball that the opposition hammered. Archer bagged the pitch last summer and proceeded to post far better numbers during the second half of the season than he did before then, making the 5.19 ERA/5.02 FIP, 4.14 BB/9, 1.88 HR/9 and 36.3 percent groundball rate he put up over 119 2/3 innings look somewhat deceiving.

Derek Holland, LHP, Pirates:

Holland resurrected his career two years ago in San Francisco, only to fall apart between the Giants and Cubs last season. While Holland made 30 starts in 2018, he had such a rough time a year ago that he spent most of it in the bullpen, where he amassed 43 of 51 appearances. The 33-year-old limped to a 6.10 ERA/6.08 FIP with 8.75 K/9, 4.8 BB/9 and 2.13 HR/9, forcing him to settle for a minor league contract with Pittsburgh in the offseason.

Andrew Miller, LHP, Cardinals:

The first season as a Cardinal didn’t go well for Miller, whom they signed to a two-year, $25MM pact beforehand. The majority of his numbers, including a 4.45 ERA/5.19 FIP in 54 2/3 innings, went the wrong way. Miller, who barely walked more than one hitter per nine during his career-best season back in 2016, issued almost four and a half free passes last season. Moreover, he endured a 10.5 percent dip in groundball rate from 2018 and saw his home run-to-fly ball rate skyrocket to 21.6 percent. The 34-year-old has since dealt with some health troubles this spring, though the latest update on his status was encouraging.

Corbin Burnes, RHP, Brewers:

Burnes had a promising debut from Milwaukee’s bullpen in 2018. However, the spin rate darling’s propensity for surrendering homers proved to be his undoing last season. Burnes, 25, gave them up on 38.6 percent of fly balls, leading to an awful 8.82 ERA/6.09 FIP in 49 innings and canceling out a strong strikeout rate of 12.86 per nine and a borderline elite swinging-strike percentage of 17.2.

Corey Knebel, RHP, Brewers:

Knebel’s on the list for injury reasons, not ones related to performance. He was a huge piece of the Brewers’ relief corps from 2017-18, but Tommy John surgery kept him off the mound a season ago. Knebel, who underwent the procedure just under 12 months ago, had been lining up for an early May return before the game shut down, according to Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. So, the longer baseball’s hiatus last, the better Knebel’s odds are of returning to his past role as a Brewers contributor over a full season.

Rebound Candidate: Chris Archer

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There’s little getting around the fact that the Pirates set back their franchise by years when trading Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows and Shane Baz for Chris Archer prior to the 2018 trade deadline. The move had a cascading series of implications for the organization and quite likely contributed to the ousting of GM Neal Huntington, manager Clint Hurdle and pitching coach Ray Searage to varying extents. The Archer trade was bad. It cannot be undone. But is Archer a sunk cost? I’m not so certain of that.

When looking at Archer’s struggles in Pittsburgh, it’s worth noting that the Pirates asked him to dust off a two-seamer/sinker that he hadn’t thrown since 2014. The Pirates’ fascination with two-seamers was nothing new; it was a pitch they preferred all their pitchers to incorporate into their arsenals — sometimes to their detriment. Glasnow himself opened up about this when he called the Pirates “behind the times” in a revealing interview with the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Jason Mackey — a piece that serves as a rather damning indictment on the prior regime in Pittsburgh, which was once renowned for unearthing hidden pitching value.

Chris Archer | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

A quarter of the pitches Glasnow threw with the Pirates in 2017 were sinkers. He scrapped the pitch entirely with Tampa Bay. Nearly 18 percent of the pitches Gerrit Cole threw in five seasons with Pittsburgh were sinkers; he threw 13 total sinkers in 2019 with the Astros and nearly won a Cy Young Award. Glasnow also indicated that the Pirates emphasized pitching down and in rather than at the top of the strike zone; a look at Jordan Lyles’ heatmaps reveals that when deviated from that gameplan upon being traded to the Brewers he found quite a bit more success.

This isn’t to say the two-seamer-heavy approach never worked. As Mackey observed in his interview, there were indeed success stories — Francisco Liriano and J.A. Happ among them. But teams have increasingly moved away from shoehorning every pitcher on their roster into the same organizational pitching philosophy when it’s clearly not working for a certain pitcher.

To the Pirates’ credit, they eventually did allow Archer to scrap his sinker in 2019 — and the overall results still weren’t great. He posted a 4.65 ERA in 12 sinker-free starts. But looking beyond ERA, there was more reason to be optimistic. Archer posted a 5.85 ERA, a 6.07 FIP and a 4.93 xFIP while incorporating the sinker into his repertoire until mid-June of this past season. Upon ditching that pitch? He sat at 4.42/3.78/3.70 in those same measures. He also induced substantially more swings and misses and seemed to control his arsenal more effectively:

K% BB% First-Pitch-Strike% K-BB% SwStr% Chase%
Archer w/ sinker 23.9% 11.4% 58.1% 12.5% 12.3% 29.8%
Archer w/out sinker 31.2% 9.3% 65.4% 21.9% 13.7% 34.0%

Once he scrapped the sinker, Archer walked fewer hitters, worked ahead in more counts and generally looked like a superior pitcher. Archer also saw his home-run rate plummet from 2.37 HR/9 to 1.31 HR/9 once he changed up his pitch mix — and it’s important to point out that homers were never a major problem for him prior to this past season’s juiced ball environment. Archer entered the 2019 season with a career 1.01 HR/9 mark and saw that number skyrocket to 1.88 on the year. Again, his sinker contributed; about one percent of Archer’s non-sinker offerings were hit for home runs. Five of the 203 sinkers he threw wound up going over the fence (2.5 percent).

We’re looking at a small sample, but it’s clear that Archer’s sinker was an awful pitch for him in 2019. He might not be an ace even if he goes back to a full season of four-seamers, but the non-sinker version of Archer in 2019 was a perfectly passable pitcher. And if the ball reverts to a more traditional composition and Archer’s home-run rate backs down toward his career levels, he might even look more like the pitcher the Pirates hoped they were acquiring when surrendering Glasnow, Meadows and Baz in that deal. (Alas, even if that does come to pass, it’s exceedingly difficult to imagine the scales of the deal tipping all the way back to Pittsburgh’s direction.)

The manner in which Archer is able to capitalize on what seems likely to be a four-seam-heavy approach will be critical for the fate of both Archer himself and the Pirates. Archer’s $9MM option for 2020 was something of a no-brainer given the hefty $1.75MM buyout and the fact that his contract contained a second club option. The option decision on him this winter is far less in his favor. Pittsburgh (or more likely another club) will hold an $11MM option over Archer with a much smaller $250K buyout. The 2020 option decision was a net $7.25MM call, but it’ll be a $10.75MM call next winter. That’s probably not getting picked up if he looks more like a rebound candidate than a bona fide big league starter.

Archer’s performance, of course, also has significant impact for the Pirates’ future. If he’s throwing well early in the season — whenever that may be — and looks like he’s back to his old ways (or, ideally, better than ever), Archer will become a premier trade chip. If he looks more like first-half Archer from 2019, the Bucs might simply look to dump his salary in a “take what you can get” type of deal.

Offseason In Review: New York Mets

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The Mets doubled down on their roster core and added some risky but upside-laden pitchers.

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Whatever you may think about the Mets and GM Brodie Van Wagenen, you can’t accuse them of being uninteresting. Van Wagenen has toned down some of the public bravado he exhibited in his first offseason at the helm, and didn’t oversee any wild blockbusters or major spending outlays this winter, but still delivered a fairly bold slate of moves — at least, within the organization’s own limitations.

There’s ample upside in the new arms that the team added. It’s probably not worth considering the earlier ceilings of Porcello and Wacha as reasonably plausible scenarios, but it’s not hard to imagine either or both functioning as quality mid-rotation types. Likewise, it’ll be a tall order for Betances and Brach to revisit their peak seasons, but even ~75% of what they’ve shown at their best would be a nice outcome for the New York org. You could say the same for Marisnick, who has one above-average offensive season under his belt and a track record of excellent glovework.

Sure, each of those guys comes with an equivalent downside scenario. Porcello and Brach allowed more than five earned runs per nine in 2019. Wacha and Betances come with major health questions. Marisnick’s career 79 wRC+ actually lags that of the man he’ll effectively replace, fellow defensive standout Juan Lagares. But still, for a cumulative investment of twenty-five million bucks, it’s not a bad value play at all.

All that said … wanna guess which NL East team spent the least this offseason? Nope, not the Marlins. It’s the Mets, even in a winter in which they realized enormous cost savings in the final year of their agreement with Yoenis Cespedes. Let’s revisit what I wrote at the outset of the offseason:

So, unless the Wilpon ownership group is preparing to commit more cash to the cause, the front office is going to have to get very creative. The Mets roster does have quite a bit of talent, but it’s also the same essential unit that fell short this year and could certainly stand to be supplemented in several areas. 

It’s clear how important the Cespedes savings were. Originally promised $29.5MM before suffering a pair of ankle injuries in an accident on his ranch, the veteran slugger is now promised just $6MM. The difference accounts for virtually all of the team’s spending … sort of.

Odds are the Mets will end up being obligated for more than that amount — on a pro-rated basis, anyway, depending upon how the league and union sort out the complicated contractual questions posed by the season delay. But the team will for the most part be in control of its incentive pay and thereby gain some assurance of a return on it. Cespedes earns another $5MM so long as he returns to the active roster (or hits the IL with a different injury); he can also tally another $9MM through plate appearance incentives. Wacha’s deal includes a load of upside if he’s healthy and throwing well enough to keep getting the ball.

That flexible situation was designed to help the club deal with a rather high-variance roster. And to be fair, the Wilpons did sign off on a club-record payroll, though it’s a modest year-over-year move from just under to just over $160MM (that’s not including whatever is still owed to David Wright by the team, the details of which aren’t known, or any incentive money).

Going back to that pre-season piece I wrote … the very next lines:

There’s no true center fielder. We all know how the bullpen looked in 2019. The rotation is missing one piece and still also needs depth. 

Well, there you have it. The club checked each of those boxes with the above-cited MLB signings and trades. But doing so on a budget meant sacrificing in several regards, and left a roster that has some clear pathways to success but also some real questions.

Spending more or striking a trade might’ve provided a clearer answer in center field. Instead, the Mets added a player in Marisnick who may best function as a platoon piece against left-handed pitching and late-game defender/baserunner. This could work out fine — if Brandon Nimmo is able to produce at a high level at the plate (which seems likely) and provide at least palatable glovework (less clear).

The outfield mix contains some good pieces. Michael Conforto is another strong lefty bat; southpaw swinger Dominic Smith off the bench is quite the luxury. J.D. Davis was a beast last year. Cespedes may now be ready for a delayed Opening Day. It’s just … those pieces don’t really seem to be from the same puzzle. The Mets seemingly declined to sacrifice long-term value (their assessment of it, anyway) to compose a cleaner 2020 picture. Smith and Davis aren’t the most comfortable fits, but the Mets understandably love their bats. The club will bet that talent and depth will produce success in one way or another — which, honestly, doesn’t sound so crazy but could perhaps fail to function in practice.

It’s a much simpler situation in the infield, where the Mets have no choice but to hope for a bounce back from Robinson Cano, continued growth of double-play partner Amed Rosario, and further excellence from Jeff McNeil (who’ll step in at third base) and lovable new star Pete Alonso. Behind the dish, the Mets will hope that Wilson Ramos can sustain some improvements in meshing with the pitching staff late in 2019 and keep Tomas Nido as the reserve. Utility candidates include Luis Guillorme, Eduardo Nunez, Max Moroff, and Jed Lowrie — if he’s able to get back to health.

There’s an awful lot of potential pop in that assembly of bats, though there’s also potential for offensive variance and the defensive picture isn’t as compelling. But the potential for swings between greatness and disaster is all the more evident in the pitching staff.

Nobody is going to complain about a starting unit fronted by the game’s top pitcher (Jacob deGrom), one of its highest-upside hurlers (Noah Syndergaard), and an accomplished but still-youthful sidekick (Marcus Stroman). With talented lefty Steven Matz now joined by Porcello and Wacha, there’s an appealing back-end mix. But several of these hurlers have had health issues of late and the depth falls off considerably from that point. Still, this remains the Mets’ chief strength. There’s obvious potential for this to be the game’s best rotation.

The toughest place on the roster to project is undoubtedly the bullpen. Rewind a few years, and you’d be looking at an all-out monster of a unit featuring some of the game’s best short-stint hurlers in Betances, Brach, Edwin Diaz, and Jeurys Familia. That’s not all. Seth Lugo was outstanding last year, lefty Justin Wilson was good as well (and has been better in the past), and Robert Gsellman has a track record that suggests he can be a solid contributor. It’s just that … it’s hard to ignore the terrible outcomes (or lack of innings) produced by much of this group last year. The Mets have a lot of cash invested in this unit and can’t be sure they have up-and-coming arms or available resources to patch any holes that arise.

2020 Season Outlook

The Mets look about as good on paper as any team in the division. And there’s arguably a greater ceiling with this club than its chief competitors. That said, it’s precisely the sort of competitive position where some added expenditures might’ve gone a long way. And it’s not clear whether ownership will give the front office spending capacity to bolster the roster if it’s in position to add at mid-season (if that’s even an option in a truncated campaign). Mets fans will have to hope for the best … all while waiting to see what comes of an uncertain ownership situation following the collapse of an agreed-upon sale of the franchise.

How would you grade the Mets’ offseason moves?  (Link for app users.)

Offseason In Review: Tampa Bay Rays

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After reaching the ALDS last season, the Rays had their usual busy offseason in search of the roster mix that could bring them into championship contention.

Major League Signings

  • Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, 3B/OF: Two years, $12MM (plus $2.4MM in posting/release fees to Yokohama DeNA BayStars)
  • Total spend: $14.4MM

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

After finishing second among Tampa Bay position players with a 3.3 fWAR in 2019, Tommy Pham found himself heading out of town, sent to the Padres as part of a four-player deal.  The minor leaguers exchanged in that deal — highly-touted infielder Xavier Edwards and a potential two-way threat in Jake Cronenworth — are certainly noteworthy, with the Rays getting the slightly longer-term prospect in Edwards while Cronenworth could help San Diego as early as this season.  But, looking at just the big-league return in the trade, the Rays sent an older, pricier, but more established hitter in Pham to the Padres for the powerful but less-polished young slugger in Hunter Renfroe.

With 70 homers over 1450 career plate appearances, we know Renfroe can mash, though his lifetime batting average (.235) and OBP (.294) leave much to be desired.  2019 saw Renfroe enjoy something of a breakout in the first half of the season before being hampered by injuries, though even Renfroe’s numbers prior to the All-Star break (.252/.308/.613 with 27 homers in 289 PA) showed only modest improvement in the average and on-base categories.

Nonetheless, Renfroe is almost four full years younger than Pham, brings more defensive versatility as an outfielder who can be deployed in center field in a pinch, and has a much lower price tag.  Renfroe is controlled through the 2023 season as a Super Two player, and is set to earn $3.3MM in 2020, his first arbitration-eligible year.  By contrast, Pham will earn $7.9MM in 2020, which is the second of three arb years.

In short, the deal almost seems like a prototypical Rays move — they got a bit younger, saved some money, and acquired a player in Renfroe who could offer enough untapped potential to be just as good or better than Pham in 2020 (plus, there’s also the lingering injury question of Pham’s elbow).  Flexibility and depth continue to be paramount in Tampa’s approach to roster building, as the Rays can wield a lineup that offers a lot of different looks, and is stocked with players who could be moved around to different positions based on circumstances.

Consider the Rays’ major free agent signing of the winter, as they landed Japanese slugger Yoshitomo Tsutsugo after a focused recruitment process that convinced Tsutsugo to reject more expensive offers for Tampa Bay’s two-year, $12MM contract.  Tsutsugo is a bit of a defensive question mark as a first baseman or left fielder, yet the Rays are planning to give Tsutsugo a look at third base; a position he hasn’t played since 2014.

It’s safe to assume that Yandy Diaz will end up getting the majority of playing time at third base, but if Tsutsugo can step in at the hot corner even once in a while to spell Diaz against a tough righty starter, that opens up a spot in the lineup for a left-handed hitting Joey Wendle, or perhaps another lefty bat in Nate Lowe (should Lowe make the Opening Day roster).  Even if the Tsutsugo/third base experiment doesn’t work out, Wendle can play third base himself, and Tsutsugo could perhaps then just be slotted into the first base/DH mix.

Speaking of first base/DH candidates, the Rays added another prominent name to that list in acquiring Jose Martinez from the Cardinals.  Rumors have swirled about the Rays’ interest in Martinez for well over a year, and the lefty-crushing slugger will now be the primary right-handed hitting first base/DH option, alongside the lefty-swinging Tsutsugo, Lowe, and Ji-Man Choi.  While Martinez can play first base or a corner outfield spot, he is probably the rare Rays pickup who wasn’t targeted for his roster flexibility, due to Martinez’s longstanding defensive struggles.

Between Martinez, Tsutsugo, and Renfroe, the Rays hope they can replace or top the 57 home runs that departed last year’s lineup — Pham, Avisail Garcia (who signed with the Brewers) and Travis d’Arnaud (who signed with the Braves).  The long ball wasn’t a big weapon for Tampa Bay in 2019, as their 217 homers ranked them 21st of the 30 teams, but that number could rise thanks to both the new faces and healthier seasons from the likes of Diaz, Wendle, and Brandon Lowe.

With Guillermo Heredia non-tendered and Garcia leaving in free agency, the Rays looked at such free agents as Yasiel Puig and Shogo Akiyama as options in the outfield.  Instead, Tampa Bay bolstered its outfield depth by adding Randy Arozarena as part of the trade with the Cardinals, while also acquiring Manuel Margot in another trade with the Padres.  It was only a few years ago that Margot was a consensus top-25 prospect in all of baseball, and while he has shown to be an excellent defender at the MLB level, his bat (84 wRC+, 87 OPS+) has yet to emerge.  Since Margot is still only 25, it isn’t out of the question that he could be a late bloomer.

The Rays paid a pretty substantial price for Margot, sending their 2019 saves leader in Emilio Pagan westward.  Pagan’s lone season in Tampa Bay was a very impressive one, as he recorded 20 saves while posting a 2.31 ERA, 7.38 K/BB rate, and 12.3 K/9 over 70 innings.  Between Pagan, Austin Pruitt (dealt to the Astros), Jose De Leon, and Matthew Liberatore, the Rays did more subtracting than adding to their pitching, though Tampa is arguably one of the few teams deep enough in pitching options to handle dealing from a surplus.

To this end, the Rays will count on their collection of arms to manage the bullpen, with a closing committee of Diego Castillo, Nick Anderson, Jose Alvarado, and possibly others to handle save situations.  As for the rotation, the Rays will can always fall back on using an opener if necessary, but the team looks ready to enter the season with a rotation of five proper starting pitchers: Charlie Morton, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Yonny Chirinos, and likely one of Ryan Yarbrough or Brendan McKay.  There is some uncertainty within that group given Glasnow’s injury-riddled 2019 and Snell’s nagging elbow problems, though both are expected to be ready by the time the 2020 season eventually gets underway.

As with basically any Rays player that makes a substantial salary, there was some speculation that Morton could be a trade chip now or in the near future, should Tampa Bay fall out of the pennant race.  Morton is being paid $15MM in 2020 and (if he doesn’t retire) he has a vesting option on his services for 2021 that will be worth another $15MM if he spends less than 30 days on the injured list this season.  The 36-year-old is still pitching at a very high level, and it makes sense why the Rays seemingly didn’t test the market for him this offseason, as Morton is even more valuable considering the lingering health questions surrounding Snell and Glasnow.

Pham ended up being the one larger salary moved off Tampa’s books, which was probably the more logical move than trading Morton since good outfield help is somewhat easier to find than a front-of-the-rotation pitcher.  GM Erik Neander faces a difficult challenge in trying to manage a small budget while also trying to build a contender, and as such Rays trades are rarely as simple as a one-for-one swap.  Getting young talent back in deals is of critical importance, whether it’s landing Edwards from San Diego, a higher Competitive Balance Round draft pick from St. Louis, or acquiring catching prospect Logan Driscoll from the Padres in the Pagan deal.  Driscoll was the Padres’ second-round pick in the 2019 draft, and down the road he could develop into yet another “catcher of the future” candidate for a Rays franchise that has long looked for stability behind the plate.

After d’Arnaud signed with Atlanta, the Rays will head into 2020 with Mike Zunino as their starting catcher.  Zunino’s struggles led to d’Arnaud taking over the regular job last season, leaving the Rays hoping that Zunino’s dreadful year was just an aberration.  A couple of veteran backstops in Kevan Smith and Chris Herrmann are in camp on minor league deals, and Michael Perez is in the in-house contender for the backup position.  Unless Zunino gets on track during the season, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Rays make catching a priority before the trade deadline.

Between dealing Pham, the free agent departures, and non-tendering players like Heredia, Jesus Aguilar, and Matt Duffy, the Rays opened up enough money to do some offseason spending without much changing their financial outlook.  As per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Rays have a projected Opening Day payroll of just under $67.6MM, which represents an increase of barely $150K over their season-ending 40-man roster payroll.

The Rays’ spending habits continue to draw attention from the MLBPA, whose grievance against the team’s use of revenue-sharing funds (in essence, wondering why those funds aren’t being spent on player salaries) was expanded to cover both the 2017-18 and 2018-19 offseasons.  Grievance notwithstanding, it doesn’t appear as if much will change for the Rays on the payroll front unless they are finally able to land their long-desired new ballpark in Tampa or St. Petersburg…or perhaps one new stadium in the Tampa/St. Pete area and another in Montreal, should the organization’s unusual split-city concept comes to fruition.

2020 Season Outlook

If it’s possible for a team to quietly win 96 games, the Rays did just that in 2019, finishing just a game short of the highest win total in franchise history.  Nothing Tampa Bay did this winter remotely came close to the Yankees’ $324MM splash on Gerrit Cole, and while New York’s on-paper roster seems far more star-studded than the Rays’ collection, Tampa finished only seven games out of the AL East lead last season.  While the Yankees famously won 103 games despite a myriad of injuries last year, the Rays also achieved their success despite losing a number of key players for long stretches of time.

The American League will be more competitive on the whole in 2020, so even capturing another wild card would represent a nice achievement for the Rays.  This could be particularly true since two ex-Rays executives are now running other AL rivals — the Red Sox hired former Rays senior VP of baseball operations Chaim Bloom as their new chief baseball officer, while the Astros hired former Rays VP of baseball operations James Click as their new GM in February, after Houston’s firing of Jeff Luhnow as a result of the sign-stealing scandal.

With other organizations trying to ape the Rays’ track record of quality acquisitions at low-cost prices, it leaves Neander and the remaining front office members with more of a challenge in keeping things afloat in Tampa Bay, especially with a roster that could be on the brink of a special season.  It will be interesting to see how the Rays manage the assets of arguably the league’s best farm system in making further additions to this team in July, whether a major trade could take place, or whether the front office will continue this offseason’s pattern of somewhat quieter moves.

How would you grade the Rays’ offseason?  (Link for app users.)

Offseason In Review: Atlanta Braves

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It was a busy offseason for the Braves, the back-to-back National League East champions, but maybe not an ideal one. While the Braves signed nine players to major league contracts, they lost their top free agent, third baseman Josh Donaldson.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

  • None

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Led by general manager Alex Anthopoulos, the Braves made it no secret that they were interested in retaining Donaldson, who flourished in their uniform in 2019 after signing a one-year, $23MM contract. For his part, the 34-year-old Donaldson expressed a desire to remain in Atlanta. Ultimately, though, the two sides couldn’t reach an agreement, leading Donaldson to join the Twins on a four-year, $92MM contract. The Braves reportedly matched the Twins’ offer in years, but they weren’t willing to approach the $92MM mark.

Donaldson and Anthony Rendon, who was never a Braves target, were the best third basemen in free agency, though the market fell off after those two. There were rumors connecting the Braves to the Rockies’ Nolan Arenado and the Cubs’ Kris Bryant, but those players haven’t changed homes to this point. Atlanta could circle back to those two in future trade talks, but as of now, the club appears as if it’ll ride with in-house options to start the season (because of the coronavirus, no one knows when that will occur). Johan Camargo and Austin Riley have been competing for the No. 1 job in recent weeks, but it’s possible the Braves will end up platooning them.

While Camargo was a quality contributor for the Braves two years ago, his production cratered last season. Riley was a top-50 prospect in baseball when the Braves promoted him last May, and with the presence of Donaldson, most of his reps came in the outfield. Although Riley did fare well in the grass, his high-strikeout ways helped prevent him from making a significant impact at the plate as a rookie.

It’s obviously not yet clear who will garner the majority of time at third for the Braves this year. That player will have a hard time replacing Donaldson, and his loss should damage the Braves’ chances of winning the division again. That said, the Braves did work to fill his offensive void during the offseason with the signing of former Marlin and Cardinal outfielder Marcell Ozuna.

Even though he had a qualifying offer from St. Louis weighing him down, it was still a surprise that Ozuna settled for a one-year, $18MM offer, barely edging out the $17.8MM value of the QO. Ozuna’s no Donaldson, but as someone who can typically be counted on for somewhere in the vicinity of three wins above replacement, he looks like a nice short-term addition. With Ozuna in left, superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. in right, Ender Inciarte in center, the re-signed Nick Markakis as an affordable fourth outfielder and Adam Duvall as a No. 5, the Braves seem to be in better shape than most teams in the grass (and don’t forget that exciting prospects Cristian Pache and Drew Waters are looming).

Similarly, despite their uncertainty at third base, the Braves are doing well in the infield. Most clubs would sign up for a first base/second base/shortstop alignment of Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies and Dansby Swanson, after all. They’ll have a bit of a different catching group looking out at them, though. Tyler Flowers, a Brave since 2016, is back for a reasonable salary. He had his worst offensive year as a Brave in 2019, but Flowers is at least a pitch-framing darling on the defensive side. He was joined last year by Brian McCann as the Braves’ duo behind the dish, but McCann retired. The Braves went the free-agency route to replace him, signing former Met and Ray Travis d’Arnaud after the 31-year-old’s solid showing in Tampa Bay last season. For $16MM over two years, it’s a bit of a risky deal for Atlanta – not only has the former top prospect had an up-and-down career in terms of production, but he has had difficulty staying healthy.

The Braves clearly experienced some position player turnover in the offseason, but a large portion of their attention went to their pitching staff. The team’s bullpen was something of a sore spot last season, and Anthopoulos acted early and often to address it over the winter. His biggest move was to strike a three-year, $40MM guarantee with southpaw Will Smith, who’s coming off a pair of great seasons with the Giants. Smith, 30, thrived as San Francisco’s closer a season ago, but the plan for now is for him to set up ex-Giants teammate Mark Melancon in Atlanta. He’ll have company there in, among others, Chris Martin and Darren O’Day – two righties the Braves re-signed for fair value in the offseason. With Smith, Melancon, Martin, O’Day and the righty duo of Shane Greene and Luke Jackson as the Braves’ most prominent relievers, they look to be in pretty good shape for late-game situations.

Meanwhile, there is some uncertainty in the Braves’ rotation, a group that waved goodbye to Dallas Keuchel and Julio Teheran in the offseason. There is no shortage of confidence in Mike Soroka, Max Fried and Mike Foltynewicz (who rebounded after a terrible start in 2019). However, it’s anyone’s guess what the Braves will get from the other two spots in their rotation. They signed longtime stalwart Cole Hamels to a one-year, $18MM pact with the hope that the lefty would provide a stabilizing veteran force this season. It’s entirely possible he will, especially with the delayed start to the season, but shoulder troubles have weighed him down over the past month or so. As of about two weeks ago, Hamels didn’t even have a timeline to return. That’s the risk you run when you pin your hopes on a 36-year-old coming off an injury-shortened campaign; in fairness to the Braves, though, it’s tough to bash them for signing an accomplished, still-effective hurler (when healthy) to a one-year deal.

Assuming the season starts sometime fairly soon, Hamels is all but guaranteed to miss a portion of it. That should leave the Braves with Sean Newcomb and Felix Hernandez as the last two starters in their rotation. The 26-year-old Newcomb is a former well-regarded prospect who – despite a high number of walks – held his own as a starter in 2018. Newcomb then spent most of last season as a reliever, and he also did fine in that role. Meantime, as one of the most successful starters of the past couple decades, Hernandez needs no introduction. The problem is that the longtime Mariner and former Cy Young winner, 33, has floundered over the past few years. Hernandez impressed this spring before the league shut down, and he seems likely to make the Braves’ roster, but you’d be right to be skeptical about a bounce-back effort.

If Newcomb and/or Hernandez don’t provide the answer for the Braves, they do have some other interesting in-house possibilities. To name a few examples, righties Bryse Wilson, Kyle Wright and Touki Toussaint – all still in their lower 20s – were each recent top 100-prospects. No one from that trio has lived up to the billing in the majors yet, but perhaps one, two or even all three of them will emerge this season. If not, the rotation may be an area the Braves look to bolster when the trade deadline comes.

2020 Season Outlook

The Liberty Media-owned Braves are projected to start 2020 with a franchise-record Opening Day payroll of $157MM. It’s money well spent overall, as – despite questions at third and in the rotation – this continues to look like a team capable of challenging just about anyone in the National League. However, it’ll be tougher for the Braves to continue their reign atop the NL East with the defending World Series champion Nationals, the Mets and the Phillies all set to field strong rosters that could push for the top spot in the division.

How do you feel about the Braves’ offseason? (Poll link for app users)

Offseason In Review: Pittsburgh Pirates

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The Pirates traded their best player (again) and appeared more intent on cutting payroll than giving the appearance of trying.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

The Pirates offseason kicked off in bizarre fashion, with former manager Clint Hurdle telling The Athletic’s Stephen J. Nesbitt that he’d received assurances that he’d be retained into 2020 — only to be fired days later. General manager Neal Huntington headed up the search for a new skipper … until owner Bob Nutting canned Huntington nearly a month into that effort. A month after the regular season ended, the Pirates had no manager or general manager and weren’t close to making a hire for either vacancy. They were represented by interim GM Kevan Graves at the annual General Managers Meetings and, shortly after that event’s conclusion, hired former Red Sox GM Ben Cherington to replace Huntington. Another 10 days later, Pittsburgh hired Twins bench coach Derek Shelton as their new manager.

By the time the Pirates had both their GM and manager in place, the likes of Yasmani Grandal, Travis d’Arnaud, Chris Martin, Will Smith and Kyle Gibson had each already signed as free agents. The Brewers had traded Chase Anderson to the Blue Jays and orchestrated an interesting four-player swap with the Padres. But getting a late start to the offseason ultimately didn’t impact the Bucs much, because as the winter wore on, it became clear that the team wasn’t planning on making any notable additions.

Rather, the largest move the Pirates made this winter was shipping their best player, Starling Marte, to the Diamondbacks in a trade that trimmed payroll and added some high-upside but very young talent to the farm ranks. Liover Peguero and Brennan Malone didn’t shoot to the top of the club’s prospect rankings but are both ranked inside the Pirates’ top 10 farmhands by FanGraphs, Baseball America, MLB.com and The Athletic.

Some fans felt that the Pirates didn’t get enough in return, but the market for Marte was a bit quieter than anticipated. The Phillies never appeared to get seriously involved — perhaps due to sitting narrowly south of the luxury tax threshold. The Indians had interest but were clearly more interested in cutting payroll than adding MLB talent themselves. The Padres were tied to Marte but more focused on Mookie Betts. Ultimately, the Bucs got a pair of quality prospects that wouldn’t have been guaranteed had they held Marte in hopes of extracting a greater return this summer.

Immediately after trading Marte, Cherington made clear that he hoped to bring in a serviceable replacement (of course, at a lower cost than Marte’s $11.5MM salary). The market for center fielders was thin to begin the winter and largely picked over by that point, but Pittsburgh wound up adding a trio of center-field-capable options at minimal costs. Jarrod Dyson ($2MM), Guillermo Heredia ($1MM) and JT Riddle ($850K) were all signed to one-year, Major League deals. Heredia projects as the club’s fourth outfielder and can be controlled via arbitration through the 2022 season if the organization sees fit. Riddle should be a backup infielder/outfielder and is controllable through 2023.

Dyson is a straight one-year pickup — a blistering runner with high-end glovework and, frankly, a pretty tidy bargain for the Pirates at a $2MM price point. He’s a nice value addition, but it’s worth noting that in going with Dyson, the Bucs apparently deemed even Kevin Pillar’s $4.25MM price tag with the Red Sox to be too expensive. It’s not as if Pillar spurned the Pirates to sign with a surefire contender, so either the front office believes Dyson to be a better asset — a defensible take but not a decisive fact by any means — or ownership simply didn’t want to spend the extra dollars to bring in the younger Pillar.

Luke Maile is the only other player who inked a big league deal with the Bucs this winter, although he still has minor league options remaining and, as such, inked a split contract. He’s the presumptive backup to 30-year-old Jacob Stallings, who’ll be getting his first opportunity as a starting catcher in 2020. Light-hitting framing savant John Ryan Murphy was brought in on a minor league deal as a depth piece, but the catching corps in Pittsburgh is a collectively underwhelming unit, to put things mildly.

It’s a different story around the infield, for the most part. Josh Bell will look to shake off a second-half slump and build on a generally strong 2019 campaign, while Adam Frazier has settled in as a quality, underrated second baseman. Kevin Newman showed off plenty of upside in a strong rookie effort last year, and the Bucs have reportedly initiated talks on an extension with one of the game’s top third base prospects (and top overall prospects): Ke’Bryan Hayes. If Hayes agrees to a deal, he’d likely open the year in the Majors … whenever, exactly, Opening Day actually happens. In the outfield, sophomore Bryan Reynolds and longtime Bucco Gregory Polanco will flank the newly signed Dyson.

Turning to the pitching staff, the Pirates have had their fair share of misfortune recently. Jameson Taillon had Tommy John surgery last summer, and righty Chad Kuhl is still working back from his own Tommy John procedure at the end of the 2018 season. Lefty Steven Brault has been slowed by shoulder woes this spring. Closer Felipe Vazquez, of course, is out of the picture entirely after being arrested on a series of abhorrent statutory sexual assault charges.

The Pirates did little to bolster their waning pitching depth this winter, however, bringing Derek Holland, Robbie Erlin and Hector Noesi aboard on minor league deals but eschewing any big league additions. Holland appears the likely fifth starter behind Chris Archer, Joe Musgrove, Trevor Williams and Mitch Keller.

Perhaps even more glaringly, Pittsburgh opted not to add a single reliever to the big league staff — with the possible exception of claiming lefty Sam Howard from the Rockies. Keone Kela should close down games in 2020, but he’s the only reliever with any real track record in the Pirates’ relief corps. There’s enough flotsam on the 40-man roster that the Pirates could’ve added some veteran arms or at least speculated on the waiver wire. Instead, they’ll rely on the same group of relievers that ranked 23rd in the Majors in ERA, 22nd in FIP and 20th in xFIP as a collective bunch in 2019 — and that was with Vazquez dominating for the first several months.

Not including Vazquez’s salary — he’ll be on the restricted list — the Pirates are set to open the season with under $54MM in payroll on the books. It’s an astonishingly low number in today’s game — one so small that no one should be surprised to see yet another grievance brought forth against the organization by the MLBPA. The collective bargaining agreement has rules in place about the manner in which a team must allocate its revenue-sharing funds, and it’s easy to understand why the union has questions about the Pirates’ claims that their use of said resources is compliant.

Cherington declined to use the word “rebuild” this offseason, instead claiming that the Pirates are merely “building.” Semantics aside, the Pirates’ roster is extraordinarily porous, and the front office effectively did nothing to stop the ship from taking on water. Pittsburgh didn’t even select a player in December’s Rule 5 Draft. If the Pirates weren’t even going to feign an attempt at improving, it’s surprising that they didn’t aggressively shop the likes of Kela, Bell, Frazier, Musgrove and basically anyone else who’s controlled for three or fewer seasons.

2020 Season Outlook

If the manner in which owner Bob Nutting bumbled through the first month of the offseason — allowing a GM to conduct a hunt for a manager before firing that GM and starting over a month into the process — didn’t illustrate the organization’s lack of a plan, the end result of their winter should spell it out. This roster isn’t any better than the one that lost 93 games in 2019. It’s very arguably worse. And yet the Pirates only made one future-oriented trade, did next to nothing to add short-term free agents who could emerge as trade chips, sat out the Rule 5 Draft and engaged in virtually no activity on the waiver wire.

Players like Reynolds, Newman and Hayes at least give fans some exciting young talent to watch, but this is a weak roster that the club barely tried to improve. It’ll be an upset if the Pirates don’t finish in last place, and fans can expect to see some combination of Archer, Mugrove, Kela, Frazier and Bell circulating the rumor mill this summer.

Cherington deserves some benefit of the doubt, given a track record of quality player development in Boston and Toronto. Perhaps the plan was to use 2020 as a year of pure evaluation for what was already in house, but it sure seems like the Pirates passed on countless opportunities to pursue upside deals, further stock the farm or at least give the fans some reason to care. It’s going to be a long year in Pittsburgh.

How would you grade the Pirates’ offseason? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)

Offseason In Review: Oakland Athletics

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The Athletics won 97 games and earned a wild-card berth for the second straight year in 2019. They weren’t all that active over the winter, but with the AL West rival Astros engulfed in turmoil, the talented A’s may be in position to take over the division this season.

Major League Signings

Options Exercised

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

For the second consecutive year, Oakland managed to weather a slew of injuries in its pitching staff and establish itself as one of the majors’ elite teams. The A’s received little to no contributions from Sean Manaea, A.J. Puk and Jesus Luzardo – three ultra-skilled southpaws who, if healthy, should be prominent parts of their rotation this year. Puk has been battling shoulder issues and didn’t seem likely to be ready for Opening Day as of earlier this week. However, with the coronavirus delaying the start of the season by at least two weeks, it’s possible Puk will be OK by Game 1. Should that be the case, he and the other two aforementioned lefties would probably be in line to join righties Frankie Montas and Mike Fiers in the A’s starting five. On paper, that’s a promising group – albeit one that lost three legit starters in Tanner Roark, Homer Bailey and Brett Anderson during free agency.

Oakland didn’t augment its starting staff during the offseason (maybe it didn’t need to), but it did spend on its bullpen. The club kept a couple of its 2019 relievers in lefty Jake Diekman and righty Yusmeiro Petit, who will cost a combined $13MM this season, and claimed southpaw T.J. McFarland from the Diamondbacks.

Diekman wasn’t especially productive after he joined the A’s in a late-July trade, walking 16 hitters and yielding 11 earned runs in 20 1/3 innings with the club. But the A’s are banking on the hard thrower’s high-strikeout, high-groundball ways paying dividends over a full campaign. He and McFarland, who struggled mightily to prevent runs in four of the past five seasons, are the top lefties in a bullpen that said goodbye to Ryan Buchter over the winter. McFarland’s like Diekman in that he induces plenty of grounders. Conversely, he’s not much for velocity or strikeouts. And McFarland has typically experienced difficulty versus right-handed hitters, which isn’t going to fly in a league that’s now imposing a three-batter minimum rule.

The acquisition of McFarland isn’t the only change the A’s bullpen underwent in recent months. The team cut ties with righty Blake Treinen, formerly a lights-out closer who trudged through a dreadful 2019. For the most part, the A’s bullpen was a strength then, but Treinen’s unexpected drop-off certainly didn’t help matters. Based on his numbers from last season, Treinen won’t be missed. Moreover, the Treinen-less A’s still look fairly set from the right side with the durable and effective Petit, closer Liam Hendriks (who was just about untouchable last season), Joakim Soria and J.B. Wendelken comprising their go-to late-game options, and they’ll hope Lou Trivino can return to his 2018 ways after falling flat as a sophomore.

Meanwhile, the A’s position player cast went largely unchanged in the past few months. Their most notable move was to trade second baseman Jurickson Profar to the Padres in a deal for Austin Allen, who will back up the touted Sean Murphy at catcher. The Athletics had high hopes for Profar when they acquired him from the division-rival Rangers entering 2019, but his lone year in an A’s uniform was a failure.

The A’s could have replaced Profar with any number of affordable, well-known options via the open market (Starlin Castro, Brian Dozier, Cesar Hernandez, Wilmer Flores and Brock Holt are some who come to mind). They even had interest in a reunion with old friend and current Met Jed Lowrie, though it’s probably fortunate for the A’s that didn’t happen, considering Lowrie’s lofty salary and ongoing injury troubles. In the end, Oakland came away with Tony Kemp in a minor trade with the Cubs. It remains to be seen, though, whether Kemp will even crack the roster. He doesn’t possess much of a track record, has no minor league options and, before MLB’s spring training shutdown, was competing with three younger second basemen in Jorge Mateo, Franklin Barreto and Rule 5 pickup Vimael Machin. There’s no sending any of those three to the minors, either (at least, not without risking losing them), and they likely have higher upside than Kemp. However, the A’s could platoon the lefty-hitting Kemp or Machin with one of the other two.

Second base aside, there weren’t many A’s positions ripe for upgrade over the winter. Their hitters did, after all, rank fifth in the majors in fWAR, fifth in wRC+ and eighth in runs last season. Most of that unit’s back, including their three best players in third baseman Matt Chapman, shortstop Marcus Semien and first baseman Matt Olson. There has been talk of extensions for all three over the past couple years, but nothing has materialized to this point. Barring a change in the coming months, it could be the last season in Oakland for Semien, a free agent-to-be who – if he comes close to replicating his jaw-dropping 7.6-fWAR effort from 2019 – will be one of the most coveted players on the open market next winter.

Fortunately for Oakland, it’s not in immediate danger of losing Chapman or Olson, standouts who still have another season of pre-arbitration eligibility. They and Semien are supported by some strong complements in outfielders Ramon Laureano and Mark Canha. Designated hitter Khris Davis also deserves mention; that is, if he can revisit his usual form after an injury-marred 2019. But one of the A’s three outfield spots does look somewhat iffy. While Stephen Piscotty was terrific two years ago, he fought multiple health problems and didn’t perform well last season. He’s now battling another injury – an intercostal strain – though perhaps he’ll have enough time to recover by Opening Day if the game’s coronavirus-caused moratorium lasts long enough. If not, the A’s may turn to the switch-hitting Robbie Grossman, who’s adept at getting on base but doesn’t offer that much else. Of course, if Piscotty’s problem is serious enough, there’s a case Oakland should look to the No. 1 free agent left – outfielder Yasiel Puig – though that seems improbable.

2020 Outlook

Clearly, it was not an exciting offseason for the low-budget Athletics, whose Opening Day payroll should check in south of the $100MM mark yet again. Despite the team’s lack of spending power, though, executive vice president Billy Beane and general manager David Forst have once again built a roster that looks as if it will contend. That appears all the more likely with the Astros – the back-to-back-to-back AL West champions – besieged by a sign-stealing scandal, a regime change, the loss of Gerrit Cole and an injury to Justin Verlander. Even with all of that adversity, the Astros still look talented enough to continue their reign in the division, but the A’s should at least nip at their heels and push for a third playoff berth in a row.

How would you grade the A’s offseason? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors app users)

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