8 High-Priced Non-Tender Candidates
A player’s years of arbitration eligibility provide an opportunity for value, as teams are able to retain veteran assets without being forced to commit to future seasons — as is often necessary in the free agent market. But there can come a time where even talented and still-useful players have pushed their arb price tag too high to justify the tender of a contract.
With performance and/or injury issues marring the 2016 seasons of these eight established big leaguers, their already-lofty salary starting points could conceivably prompt their respective teams to send them onto the open market:
Lucas Duda, 1B, Mets (5+ service class, $6.725MM 2016 salary): Back issues appear to have ended Duda’s campaign after just 145 plate appearances, and they weren’t terribly productive ones. In that relatively small sample, his walk rate fell even as he put more balls on the ground and made less hard contact than in his productive prior campaigns. The result was a below-average .231/.297/.431 batting line. With health and platoon questions at play, the Mets could well be forced to look for an alternative approach at the position.
Early prediction: Non-tender
Nathan Eovaldi, SP, Yankees (5+, $5.6MM): Despite his struggles, Eovaldi seemed for much of the year to be a fairly sure thing to be tendered a contract. He continued to show signs of promise in spite of the inconsistencies — a career-best 9.3% swinging strike rate, for instance — and at worst would appear to be a late-inning pen candidate with a fastball that sits at 97 even when he’s starting. But a devastating elbow injury means that Eovaldi won’t pitch next year. The Yankees aren’t likely to pay up just to prepare the righty for free agency, so the only way he stays in New York is through some kind of multi-year arrangement.
Early prediction: Non-tender, barring multi-year agreement
Jake McGee, RP, Rockies (5+, $4.8MM): Brought in to be a power late-inning lefty, McGee has faltered — and not just in the thin air of Coors Field. He sits at a 5.26 ERA with 7.6 K/9 against 2.9 BB/9, with his swinging strike percentage (12.3% last year, 8.7% in 2016) plummeting along with his velocity (93.5 mph average four-seamer, down from a 2014 peak of 96.4). McGee has also spent time on the DL with a knee injury. Despite those difficulties, it will be hard for Colorado to part with McGee’s upside, especially having shipped out Corey Dickerson to acquire him last winter and given the going rate for quality pen arms on the open market. But with little in the way of encouraging signs, that just might be what happens.
Early prediction: Non-tender
Shelby Miller, SP, Diamondbacks (3+, $4.35MM): Miller’s struggles are well documented, and he has spent the second half of the year working through his issues at Triple-A. The results have been fairly promising thus far — a 3.52 ERA with 10.0 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 over 46 innings — and the lengthy stint has also impacted his future contract status. Because he now won’t top four years in total MLB service time by year end, Miller will remain under Arizona’s control for an additional season. That certainly impacts the cost-benefit equation, and makes him a likely tender candidate despite a fairly high salary and significant recent performance concerns.
Early prediction: Tender
Tommy Milone, SP, Twins (4+, $4.5MM): Things didn’t start off well for Milone, who was outrighted off of the 40-man roster one month into the 2016 season. He was rather masterful at Triple-A, running up a 1.66 ERA with 7.6 K/9 and a minuscule 0.7 BB/9 in seven starts, but things haven’t improved upon his return to the majors. Plus, Milone is now stuck on the shelf with a biceps problem. The odds seem good that he’ll be permitted to walk this fall.
Early prediction: Non-tender
Trevor Plouffe, 3B, Twins (5+, $7.25MM): It has been an underwhelming and injury-plagued season for the 30-year-old, who owns a .255/.290/.390 batting line with seven home runs in 284 plate appearances. With his power dwindling, Plouffe’s walk rate (4.2%) sits at about half of the level it was over 2014-15. Plus, defensive metrics have soured on the glove and Miguel Sano is arguably in need of everyday time at the hot corner. The Pirates just extended David Freese for two years and $11MM, which makes an $8MM+ payday to Plouffe seem a bit steep in light of his struggles. His time in Minnesota could end with a non-tender rather than a trade, particularly if a new GM decides it’s time to trim salary and focus on future assets.
Early prediction: Non-tender
Ben Revere, OF, Nationals (5+, $6.25MM): Brought in to handle the bulk of the load in center after a solid 2015 season, Revere has been a below-replacement-level player. He not only carries a miserable .215/.261/.302 slash over 335 plate appearances, but has gone just 11-for-16 in stolen base attempts despite typically rating as one of the game’s best bag swipers. While the Nats may well desire a left-handed hitter capable of playing center for 2017, the team may not be willing to pay quite as much as Revere will command in hopes that he can bounce back.
Early prediction: Non-tender
Trevor Rosenthal, RP, Cardinals (4+, $5.6MM): Coming into the year, Rosenthal was one of the game’s better closers. But while his velocity and strikeouts remain, he has permitted 7.3 walks per nine and posted a 5.13 ERA on the year. And now Rosenthal is on the DL with apparent shoulder and forearm issues. There’s at least some chatter that he could move to a starting role, and no suggestion as of yet that the organization is inclined to part with its two remaining years of control, but Rosenthal represents a rather costly roll of the dice.
Early prediction: Tender
Knocking Down The Door: Brugman, Hader, Murphy, Slater, Smith
This week’s installment of Knocking Down the Door features a pair of lefty starters who are very close to graduating from the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, a strong contender for the Rockies’ catching job in 2017 and a couple of outfielders hoping for a chance to prove that their recent hitting success isn’t an aberration.
Jaycob Brugman, OF, Oakland Athletics (Triple-A Nashville)
It’s fair to say that the A’s could have two, if not three outfield spots up for grabs when the offseason begins (depending on the usage of Khris Davis, who is presently splitting time between left field and DH). And, while there’s no shortage of talented prospects closing in on the Athletics’ big league roster, it’s possible that those outfield spots are occupied next April by players not currently in the organization. August and September can be considered an early audition period for Jake Smolinski and Brett Eibner, who are getting a close look right now. Jaycob Brugman is currently on the outside looking in but doing everything possible to get an invitation.
The left-handed hitting Brugman, who has played mostly in center field this season, has a .393/.456/.539 slash line in August, including 13 hits in his last 22 at-bats. With Coco Crisp and Danny Valencia each potential August trade candidates—the A’s would just need to find a taker for Crisp; Valencia might not pass through waivers—there’s a chance that Brugman could jump right in to an everyday spot in the near future. If that doesn’t happen, the 24-year-old should still be able to take some September at-bats away from Crisp, who will be a free agent after the season.
Josh Hader, SP, Milwaukee Brewers (Triple-A Colorado Springs)
When the Brewers needed a pitcher to make a spot start last week, they turned to a highly-deserving 26-year-old named Brent Suter, who they drafted in the 31st round back in 2012. Suter became the first left-hander to start a game for the Brewers in almost three years. Now in the bullpen after getting knocked around in his MLB debut, Suter might only be around to watch the next time a lefty makes a start for the Brewers.
After Josh Hader‘s last Triple-A start—two-hit ball over six shutout innings with 12 strikeouts—it could be time to give the 22-year-old lefty a taste of the Major Leagues before he has to shut it down for the year. While his first taste of the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League hasn’t been a walk in the park (4.79 ERA in 12 Triple-A starts; 0.95 ERA in 11 Double-A starts), Hader continues to rack up a ton of strikeouts (11.8 K/9) while keeping the ball out of the stands (0.4 HR/9). Both stats indicate a bright future for Hader, who should crack the Brewers’ rotation in 2017.
Tom Murphy, C, Colorado Rockies (Triple-A Albuquerque)
With Nick Hundley headed for free agency after the season, the Rockies will need to determine if they’ll be able to replace him in-house. They can do that now by starting to give defensive standout Tony Wolters more playing time to find out if he can hit enough—he has 11 hits in his last 20 at-bats, but has only started 12 games since the All-Star break—and/or calling up Tom Murphy, who is slashing .421/.461/.804 over his last 28 Triple-A games, to find out if he is good enough defensively.
In all likelihood, that duo should be able to more than make up for the loss of the veteran Hundley, who has subpar offensive numbers on the road and versus right-handed pitching this season. A call-up of Murphy, who didn’t embarrass himself during a September call-up last year (.876 OPS, 3 HR in 39 plate appearances), could result in a heated competition with Wolters that won’t end until Opening Day 2017.
Austin Slater, OF, San Francisco Giants (Triple-A Sacramento)
Riding a 13-for-18 hot streak coming into Tuesday, Austin Slater was, probably unknowingly, as close as he had ever been to the big leagues when the Giants placed backup outfielder Gregor Blanco on the disabled list. But it was journeyman Gorkys Hernandez who got the call, mostly due to his speed and defensive ability, although he’s also having a good season at the plate and has 78 games of MLB experience under his belt.
While the 23-year-old Slater’s amazing second-half numbers (.353/.439/.640; 10 HR, 21 BB, 23 K in 37 games) have undoubtedly opened some eyes in the organization, he likely helped his cause further with two hits, including a three-run homer, on the day he was passed over for what would’ve been a well-earned promotion. Slater could get the call in September and has an outside chance to play a bigger role if the oft-injured Angel Pagan is unable to stay on the field.
Nate Smith, SP, Los Angeles Angels (Triple-A Salt Lake)
No team in baseball could use some good news from down on the farm more than the Angels. With their pitching staff decimated by injuries, they should be delighted with the the recent work of lefty Nate Smith, who allowed just one single over seven shutout innings on Tuesday against a stacked El Paso lineup (see Margot, Asuaje, Renfroe, Hedges).
While the 24-year-old Smith has had an up-and-down season in a tough league for pitchers, he’s likely done enough (4.62 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 7.1 K/9) to warrant serious consideration for a 2017 rotation spot. Of course, it wouldn’t hurt for the Angels to get an early look. With his innings total up to 142 1/3 after 137 2/3 in 2015, it should happen in the next week or two.
Angels Depth Chart
“Knocking Down the Door” is a weekly feature that identifies minor leaguers who are making a case for a big league promotion.
8 Hitters Lining Up Big First-Time Arbitration Salaries
The principles of determining the arbitration salaries of hitters were established long ago by MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz. While the arb projection model is always being tweaked as it reacts to subtle changes in the process, the fundamental elements remain the same: for hitters to get paid, they need to take a lot of plate appearances, sock a lot of dingers, and rack up those RBIs. Other factors matter too, of course — and quite a bit more goes into making an actually productive player — but those are the major drivers of arb dollars.
So, who is set to cash in this year in their first time through the arbitration system? Players like Nick Castellanos and Yangervis Solarte have some of the attributes of big arbitration earners, but have had their playing time curtailed by injury. Other reasonably productive players, including Billy Hamilton and Ender Inciarte, just don’t add value in the right kinds of ways.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at some hitters who are well on their way to commanding sizable first-year arbitration salaries this winter — locking up a first big payday and setting the a high starting point for future arb raises:
Khris Davis, OF, Athletics: With 33 home runs already in the bank, Davis has a decent chance to reach the 40-dinger plateau and reach the century mark for his career. And he’s a good bet to clear 100 RBI with 82 already on his ledger. As Swartz has explained before, awards and milestones can help boost an arb case. Davis’s lack of walks, middling .300 OBP, and subpar defensive work matter quite a bit more in real life than they do in the arbitration world.
George Springer, OF, Astros (Likely Super Two): Though he’ll only be eligible for Super Two status, that means that Springer is going to be setting a nice, high starting point for his three additional seasons of arbitration control beyond 2017. He leads all players on this list with 581 plate appearances, and he has produced 25 long balls and 72 RBI over that stretch. Though runs don’t seem to have a major impact on the arb valuation process, it can’t hurt that Springer is sure to top 100. And monster production in 2014-15 bolsters Springer’s case as well. Now we can see why the ‘Stros tried to get Springer locked up to an extension before he was a fully established big leaguer.
Wil Myers, 1B, Padres: Though he doesn’t feature monster power, Myers is sitting with 23 bombs and could reach 30 by season’s end. He also has matched Springer with 72 RBI to date over his 530 plate appearances, to go with a sturdy .267/.343/.473 slash line. Plus, while steals don’t pay all that much, the 22 accumulated by Myers could help some. It was an advantageous time for Myers to finally play in over 100 MLB games in a season, though his prior injuries will tamp down his earnings somewhat since he hasn’t accumulated as many plate appearances and counting stats as he could have.
Jackie Bradley Jr., OF, Red Sox (Likely Super Two): Though he is actually out-slugging everybody else named in this post (.509), JBJ is tied for the lead in ribbies (72) and lags just a bit in dingers (21). Still, he’s going to command a healthy Super Two payday. (It seems safe to assume that he’ll qualify for that status with what will end up being 2.150 years of service at year end.)
Xander Bogaerts, SS, Red Sox: Bradley’s teammate is playing every day and producing at a fantastic rate for a shortstop, with the positional value likely to help his case somewhat. He has a chance to end the year with twenty homers and around 90 runs batted in, and Bogaerts is also tops among this group with a .310 batting average. Given his extensive action coming into the season, moreover, Bogaerts has more total career plate appearances than anyone named here — except for the next guy down.
Marcell Ozuna, OF, Marlins: Like Bogaerts, Ozuna has over 1,800 career PAs coming into the year and plays a premium defensive position. His demotion last year prevented him from reaching Super Two status last fall, but he’s making up for it with a big .277/.331/.489 campaign. Ozuna will probably top 600 trips to the plate, could approach (or maybe even reach) thirty long balls, and may end up with around eighty ribbies.
Brad Miller, INF, Rays: This year has had some peaks and valleys for Miller, who was moved off of the shortstop position but has largely thrived with the bat. Most notably, he has already banged out 25 home runs and carries a robust .262/.321/.522 batting line. There are some limitations here, including the slightly lower PA (455) and RBI (60) tallies thus far, but Miller is going to command a large first-time salary.
Jonathan Schoop, 2B, Orioles: Good news, Fantex investors! Having already topped twenty dingers after twice popping double-digit home run tallies, Schoop is ready to cash in. He plays up the middle, which helps, and he’s likely to reach 600 plate appearances.
Spoiler Season Is Upon Us
Burke Badenhop made his Major League debut on April 9, 2008 when he tossed a scoreless inning of relief for the Marlins. In the eight years that followed, he pitched 512 1/3 innings of 3.74 ERA ball with the Marlins, Rays, Brewers, Red Sox and Reds. He’s been a part of four trades (most notably the Miguel Cabrera/Dontrelle Willis blockbuster), tested Major League free agency and been in more than a dozen Major League and minor league clubhouses. We were thrilled to have Burke bring some of that unique perspective to MLB Trade Rumors when he discussed the importance of September roster expansion and are happy to welcome him back for another piece.
You haven’t heard it yet, but pretty soon someone on an MLB broadcast is going to mention a team’s “magic number” — that oh-so-important combined number of wins and rivals’ losses necessary for said team to clinch a spot in the postseason. Magic number talk means that the playoff race is here and that players will soon start to scour the Internet for the best ski goggles to wear for playoff-clinching celebrations. So much is written about those teams, and rightfully so, but the season doesn’t end for the rest of the league, even if their only use for ski goggles will be if they plan on snowboarding this winter. Regardless of how much has gone wrong for a team in a given season, September offers a chance to play the role of spoiler, and teams in position to do so aren’t always as easy to topple as they might have been a couple months ago.
Throughout my big league career I played on a couple of teams in the hunt as September neared. Unfortunately, I played on far more teams that were at the bottom of the standings when playoff baseball was on the horizon. There are, however, certain advantages a losing team gains when it’s time to play spoiler. First off, you have nothing to lose. Playing with that kind of freedom can bring out the best in some teams. What’s one more loss when you’ve been losing all year? Playing with nothing to lose is also compounded by the fact that the teams in the hunt have everything to lose. They are expected to beat you. If they lose now, they could ruin all the success they’ve had all year. With those added expectations, they’ll play tight, while you can play loose. It’s practically a recipe for spoiler success.
Playing the role of spoiler is also fun. It may sound terrible to say, but ruining another team’s season is kind of exciting. You can’t tell me the Orioles weren’t having fun when they dashed the Red Sox’ playoff hopes on that famous last day of the season in 2011. For a losing team, it may have been months since you played baseball and legitimately had fun. Losing all season is not fun. Playing spoiler, to borrow the slogan from Bryce Harper, can “make baseball fun again.” A team with a renewed sense of fun will certainly play better and is far more dangerous to face this time of year.
Teams also gain a greater sense of pride and meaning toward the end of the year. There’s an inherent pride that comes along with playing our national pastime. Despite your spot in the standings, it’s your responsibility to the game to continually try your best and not roll over just because you won’t make the playoffs. It’s practically your unwritten duty to try and play spoiler. Doing so can add a lot of meaning to an otherwise meaningless season.
As a teammate, you take pride in giving your best for your team, your coaches and yourself. Jobs can be won and lost based on how you play at the end of the season. It’s your final opportunity to give coaches, scouts and executives a lasting impression of the type of player you are as you head into the offseason. That type of personal pride will often bring out the best in a player.
In 2014, I was playing for a Red Sox team that wasn’t going to make the playoffs. I had pitched well all season and was going to be a free agent at the end of the year. The stats that I finished with would be very important in determining what type of jobs I’d be looking at in the winter. Fall apart and teams might write you off. Stay the course and teams might continue to be impressed. Develop a sudden bout of wildness on the mound and red flags will rise. As any reliever would know, it doesn’t take much to lose control of an inning and see a team put up a five spot on you. I wanted nothing to do with any of that. My focus never wavered until I knew I got the last out of my last appearance. Having the finish line in sight gave me something to focus on this time of year, and it’s a prime reason for the fact that teams won’t roll over when you’d expect them to.
There’s one last little advantage a spoiler type team will also have this time of year that is probably easily over looked by fans: the element of surprise. Teams out of the playoff race are comprised of far more guys that you’ve never heard of. As an opposing team, this can make preparation difficult. I remember a pre-series pitchers’ meeting where a rookie hitter was about to be discussed. We had no video on him. One of our pitchers had faced him one time two years ago in the minors, and that was about it. About our only info on him was that he was 6’2” and hit right-handed. Sometimes you might get lucky and have some minor league video on a guy to get a sense of his approach in the box. Unfortunately, that video usually isn’t an HD Sunday Night Baseball broadcast. It’s probably video from a center-field camera at some Double-A park that has the quality of elevator security footage. Without the ability to prepare for a team, they can easily sneak up on you.
So when you’re watching a last place team beat up on a playoff contender in a few weeks, don’t be so surprised. Know that there are a few extra factors at play now that it’s magic number time.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
MLBTR Originals
Here’s a recap of the original analysis MLBTR offered over the last week:
- With the Astros having released center fielder Carlos Gomez, Steve Adams broke down eight potential fits for the former star. The Rangers, whom Steve included, have since signed Gomez.
- Jeff Todd looked at eight midseason prospect call-ups who are impacting the postseason race.
- Mark Polishuk forecast the upcoming offseason’s qualifying offer market, concluding that at least 11 players are locks to receive a QO. There are also plenty of other players who could also be in the mix, as Mark detailed.
- Jason Martinez examined the 10 American League playoff contenders’ needs in the wake of the Aug. 1 non-waiver trade deadline.
- In this week’s “Knocking Down the Door,” Jason listed four pitching prospects and two young infielders who are making cases for promotions.
- Despite being in first place, the Indians could certainly stand to upgrade at catcher. With that in mind, Steve polled readers on which path they should take at the position.
- I ranked the five best rookies in each league (AL, NL) as the end of the regular season draws closer.
- Finally, Jeff focused on the performance and potential offseason earning power of Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner, an impending free agent.
Top 5 NL Rookie Of The Year Candidates
We ran down the leading American League Rookie of the Year candidates on Thursday. In this edition, we’ll examine the first-year standouts in the NL.
1.) Corey Seager, SS, Dodgers:
The 18th pick in the 2012 draft, Seager was a heralded minor leaguer whom Baseball America ranked as a top three prospect four years running. As was the case in 2015, Seager came into 2016 as BA’s No. 1-ranked prospect. For good reason, too, as the 6-foot-4, 215-pounder tore through Major League pitching during a 27-game cup of coffee with Los Angeles last season.
Seager has continued to toy with the league this year, crushing opponents with a .309/.362/.530 line and 58 extra-base hits (21 homers, 34 doubles and three triples) through 508 PAs. He’s had success hitting to all fields and virtually never pops up, as evidenced by a 1.8 percent infield fly rate.
While the 22-year-old has been a revelation offensively, the same is true in the eyes of multiple defensive metrics. UZR (11.6) and UZR/150 (17.7) regard Seager as a top 10 defender in the league, regardless of position, though DRS (+1) only places him 13th among shortstops. That disparity notwithstanding, both fWAR (5.9) and rWAR (4.9) portray Seager as one of the most valuable players, not just rookies, in the sport. Seager is the clear NL Rookie of the Year front-runner.
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Potential Landing Spots For Carlos Gomez
The Astros requested release waivers on Carlos Gomez earlier today, and in doing so cut loose a candidate who entered the season ranked second on the Spring Training edition of MLBTR’s Free Agent Power Rankings. The fall for Gomez has been astounding, to say the least. While a poor second half last year led to some concern, a solid season at the plate and in the field after an offseason of rest would’ve given Gomez five straight seasons of average or better offense — substantially better, in the case of 2013-14 — and an elite center field glove. Instead, he’s likely to become a free agent on Sunday once he clears release waivers and will sign for the pro-rated portion of the league minimum through season’s end — assuming he can get a MLB deal. Then, he’ll likely be left seeking a one-year deal in the offseason with the hope of re-establishing himself in 2017.
Gomez, though, can begin salvaging his stock with a strong performance over the season’s final six weeks, and his pursuit of that goal will likely begin on Sunday. He’s likely to sign with a contending club — non-contenders would rather evaluate younger options — and there are a number of potential fits. Let’s break them down…
Marlins: Miami is the one team that has been said to have interest in Gomez throughout his DFA process whose interest still looks legitimate. Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reported just yesterday that the Marlins were still in on Gomez, and now that he can be had at a more affordable rate, he makes even more sense. Miami lost Giancarlo Stanton for the season when he suffered a Grade 3 groin strain last week, and Gomez can help to round out their outfield alongside Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna and Ichiro Suzuki. Ichiro has been sensational this season, but he’s 42 and his production has waned since the All-Star break. Ozuna, too, has seen production diminish in recent weeks. Gomez, at the very least, could help keep the incumbent outfielders fresh, and he offers some pop and a great deal of speed off the bench even if he isn’t starting.
Giants: President of baseball operations Brian Sabean told Tim Kawakami of the San Jose Mercury News that the Giants are having internal discussions about Gomez earlier today, so there’s some degree of intrigue here. The Giants have an outfield alignment of Angel Pagan, Denard Span and Hunter Pence, with Gregor Blanco the primary reserve, but none of those starters are a shining beacon of health. Gomez could see time at any outfield spot and provide a nice bench piece down the stretch with some upside if he’s needed to step into a larger role.
Blue Jays: Toronto doesn’t stand out as an immediate fit for Gomez, but as MLBTR’s Jason Martinez noted when looking at the needs of American League playoff hopefuls earlier this morning, the outfield has become an issue for MLB’s lone Canadian club. Both Jose Bautista and Kevin Pillar are on the 15-day disabled list, and Michael Saunders has gone into the tank since the All-Star Break (.152/.275/.326 in 109 plate appearances). Toronto is currently starting Melvin Upton Jr. (who hasn’t hit whatsoever since being traded to the Jays) and journeyman Ezequiel Carrera in the outfield, making a Gomez gamble a potentially palatable course of action.
Tigers: Cameron Maybin is on the disabled list, leaving Tyler Collins and Alex Presley as Detroit’s primary options in center field. Detroit is scrambling a bit with Jose Iglesias and Nick Castellanos also on the DL — as evidenced by their acquisition of Erick Aybar — and bringing Gomez into the fold for scarcely more than $100K should have some appeal as they look to remain in the hunt for the AL Central or, at least, an American League Wild Card berth.
Rangers: Texas has lost Shin-Soo Choo for the season, and while they’re equipped to handle the loss, they could still look at Gomez and see a player with more upside than current bench options such as Drew Stubbs, Delino DeShields and Ryan Rua. Gomez hasn’t performed better than any of that trio this year, with the possible exception of DeShields, but his track record is considerably more impressive than any of the bunch.
Nationals: Washington will soon get Ryan Zimmerman back from the disabled list, which will likely push Daniel Murphy back to second base and Trea Turner to center field, thereby supplanting Ben Revere and his disappointing .211/.258/.297 batting line. As such, the need to roll the dice on a player like Gomez may not be as great as it would be with a longer-term injury to Zimmerman. However, Danny Espinosa‘s bat has also completely cratered since July, and Turner could instead take regular at-bats at shortstop in his stead, or at least serve as part of a rotation between center field, second base and shortstop should the Nats decide to add Gomez.
Cardinals: ESPN’s Mark Saxon reported yesterday that there was “nothing doing” on the Gomez front, thanks in part to Randal Grichuk‘s Herculean production in the week since he’s been recalled from Triple-A. The Cardinals, though, will still be without Matt Holliday for most of the remaining regular season, and Gomez would add a center-field capable player with plenty of upside that could deepen the roster both in September and in the postseason, even once Holliday returns.
Mets: Like the Cardinals, the Mets were initially linked to Gomez before later reports threw cold water on the concept. ESPN New York’s Adam Rubin said earlier this week that the Mets weren’t interested in trading for Gomez, but signing him as a free agent for the pro-rated league minimum could be another story. Yoenis Cespedes is on the disabled list, Juan Lagares is out for the year, and the Mets are struggling in virtually all facets of the game right now. It’s not uncommon to see fading teams shake things up with a personnel change late in the season, and Gomez at the very least would allow manager Terry Collins to stop crossing his fingers and penciling corner outfielders into the center field slot on his lineup card.
Top 5 AL Rookie Of The Year Candidates
There are approximately 40 regular-season games remaining for all 30 Major League Baseball teams, which makes now a good time to examine which rookies have made the greatest impacts so far this year. There are dozens of first-year players who have impressed to certain degrees, but we’ll narrow it down to five spots in each league.
It’s a laborious process to go through all the candidates in full detail, so we’ll take each league in turn, beginning with the top contenders from the American League:
1.) Michael Fulmer, RHP, Tigers:
With the Tigers mired in mediocrity last summer, outgoing general manager Dave Dombrowski made the wise decision to sell off established veterans on expiring contracts in hopes of landing long-term building blocks. One of those deals, to send outfielder Yoenis Cespedes to the Mets, is paying massive dividends this year. As the centerpiece of their return for Cespedes, the Tigers received right-hander Michael Fulmer, whom Baseball America, ESPN’s Keith Law and MLB.com each rated as a top 50 prospect entering last season.
Fulmer, 23, debuted with the Tigers on April 29 and has since produced like one of the game’s elite starters, let alone rookies. Through his first 120 big league innings (19 starts), Fulmer has recorded an AL-leading 2.25 ERA, which he backs with an excellent ground-ball rate (50.6 percent) and a K-BB percentage (15.0) that’s above the AL average of 12.9. In his latest outing, Fulmer went on the road to throw a complete game shutout against the formidable Rangers, striking out nine and walking none. Earlier this summer, Fulmer ran up the second-longest scoreless streak by a rookie over the past 45 years. At 33 1/3 frames, Fulmer fell just shy of Fernando Valenzuela‘s 35-inning record that has stood since 1981.
Driving Fulmer’s success is his well-rounded repertoire, including a four-seam fastball that averages 95 mph and a pair of tremendous offspeed pitches. According to PitchFX, all have been among the highest-quality offerings of their kind this year. ERA estimators such as FIP (3.45), xFIP (3.69) and SIERA (3.84) call for a decline in run prevention for a pitcher with a .248 BABIP, but there’s little question that Fulmer has been the preeminent rookie in his league.
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Post-Trade Deadline Contender Needs (American League)
It’s still too early to decide which pre-deadline trades (or non-trades) were good or bad moves. It isn’t too early, though, for contenders to determine whether they still need more help down the stretch and make any necessary adjustments.
Here’s a spoiler alert. Eight of the 10 American League contenders listed in this article are in need of starting pitching. Unfortunately, there is not much of it available as evidenced by our Top 20 August Trade Candidate list. The biggest name available as a free agent, Jonathan Papelbon, will likely sign with a contending team in the near future. Carlos Gomez, too, could soon be available to any club. Keep in mind, though, that each player was recently released by a playoff contender due to very poor performance.
Here’s an update on the American League teams that currently hold a playoff spot or are close enough to be considered playoff contenders and their biggest needs as we approach the stretch run. (Note: I elected to list any team within arm’s reach of a Wild Card spot as a contender at this point, in spite of the direction they signaled prior to the non-waiver trade deadline.)
AL EAST
Toronto Blue Jays
Current Place in Standings: 69-52; 1st Place +1.5
Key pre-deadline additions: Melvin Upton Jr., Francisco Liriano, Scott Feldman, Joaquin Benoit
Key players lost to injury since deadline: Jose Bautista, Kevin Pillar
Record Since Trade Deadline: 10-6
The acquisition of Melvin Upton Jr. gave the team an excellent fourth outfielder who is capable of playing all three outfield spots well, providing speed and power off of the bench and giving veteran Jose Bautista an occasional day off. Those plans have been altered, however, with Kevin Pillar (sprained thumb on August 7th) and Bautista (sprained knee on August 9th) both on the disabled list.
Upton’s struggles since joining the Jays, along with those of Michael Saunders and Justin Smoak haven’t helped. Unless Dalton Pompey starts playing like the guy the Jays thought he would be when he burst onto the scene two seasons ago, the Jays might need to go shopping again. Several outfielders, including Peter Bourjos and former Blue Jay Melky Cabrera, could be targeted in an August deal. They could also take a shot on Carlos Gomez in hopes that a change of scenery would help him turn things around.
Mid-Season Prospect Call-Ups Impacting The Post-Season Race
We may never again see anything quite like last year’s incredible series of prospect promotions, which dramatically changed the post-season picture. Players including Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, Kyle Schwarber, Miguel Sano, Steven Matz, Michael Conforto, Luis Severino, Stephen Piscotty and Joe Ross all made major contributions to contending teams — though all of their clubs didn’t ultimately qualify for the postseason.
While a repeat would be asking too much, there are many freshly-promoted youngsters who are increasingly critical to their teams’ hopes of advancing. In some cases, there was at least some pre-season expectation of such a development. In others, it has been more of a pleasant surprise. But these teams are benefiting by relatively late promotions from within, which also means that these players likely won’t end up qualifying for an extra year of arbitration via Super Two status.
Here are the prospects called up in mid-summer who have already begun shaping the still-developing post-season picture in 2016. (To draw some somewhat arbitrary cut-offs, we’ll only look at players who were promoted in June or later, and only include teams that are currently above .500.)
Trea Turner, IF/OF, Nationals — We always knew that Turner was likely to crack the majors this year, but we didn’t know he’d do so while playing just two innings (to date) at shortstop. Turner has seen action in center and, especially, second base — where he has been excellent — and now seems ensconced atop the Nats’ lineup with an excellent .314/.341/.525 batting line, three home runs, and a dozen steals. He’s not alone in receiving important mid-season calls from the Nats, who have also asked for contributions from highly-regarded young players like Wilmer Difo, Brian Goodwin, Reynaldo Lopez, and Lucas Giolito.
Willson Contreras, C, Cubs — As if the Cubbies needed the boost, Contreras has been a force since coming up, running up a double-digit walk rate while slashing .266/.354/.444 with seven home runs over 192 plate appearances. Not only that, he’s contributing in the corner outfield while also playing well behind the plate when he’s tasked with handling the staff. Given last year’s star youngster, it’s tempting to view Contreras as something like Kyle Schwarber 2.0, with less bat but more defensive capabilities.
Jameson Taillon, SP, Pirates — Taillon is showing the polish of a veteran craftsman, not a major league rookie who hadn’t pitched competitively since 2013 heading into the season. Over his 66 frames through 11 starts, he carries a sturdy 3.00 ERA with 7.1 K/9 against 1.2 BB/9 to go with a 53.8% groundball rate. That’s exactly what the Bucs’ rotation needed.
Click below for the remainder of the players.