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Poll: Should The Twins Trade Jorge Polanco?

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Jorge Polanco is now at the end of the guaranteed part of his contract. The switch-hitting infielder signed a five-year, $25.75MM extension going into the 2019 campaign, with a pair of club options for 2024 and 2025. The first one is valued at $10.5MM with a $1MM buyout, making it a net $9.5MM decision, followed by a $12.5MM option for ’25 with a buyout of $750K.

Polanco, 30, has been consistently productive over the course of the deal, apart from a dip in the shortened 2020 season. He hit 22 home runs in 2019, producing a batting line of .295/.356/.485 and a wRC+ of 120. After his aforementioned struggles in 2020, he bounced back with a 33-homer campaign in 2021, slashing .269/.323/.503 for a 124 wRC+.

The injury bug has bit him a couple of times in the past two seasons, limiting him to just 184 games over 2022 and 2023, but he’s still been productive when on the field. He’s hit 30 home runs in that time and walked in 12.7% of his plate appearances, leading to a line of .244/.341/.427 and 119 wRC+.

Defensively, Polanco has been gradually moved off shortstop over the course of the deal but is still playable at second. Outs Above Average gave him a grade of -5 at the keystone in 2023 but Defensive Runs Saved had him at +2.

Picking up the option in an easy decision. $9.5MM for a switch-hitting middle infielder with 30-homer potential is a bargain. However, there are some other factors that may lead the Twins to consider a trade. One factor is the weak free agent class, which is light on impact bats, especially in the middle infield. The shortstop class doesn’t really have a viable everyday option, while the group of second basemen is headlined by Amed Rosario, Whit Merrifield and Adam Frazier. Most teams would likely prefer Polanco at his option price over what those free agents will get on the open market.

There’s also the internal roster situation. Polanco’s not really a viable shortstop anymore, but Carlos Correa has that position locked down anyway. At third base, Royce Lewis is finally healthy and showing his potential. He wasn’t able to play much from 2020 to 2022 thanks to the pandemic and then twice tearing his right ACL, but he was back on the field for the second half of 2023. He got into 58 games and mashed 15 home runs for a batting line of .309/.372/.548 and 155 wRC+, then hit another four home runs in the playoffs. Though he came up as a shortstop, he played a lot of third base next to Correa and seems likely to have that position going forward.

At second base, Edouard Julien got significant playing time this year and there was plenty to like about his performance. Though he struck out in 31.4% of his trips to the plate, he also walked at a stout 15.7% clip and hit 16 home runs in his 109 games. His .263/.381/.459 line translated to a 136 wRC+. His defense has been considered subpar and his -3 DRS at second this year supports that, but OAA had him at an even zero. There’s also Kyle Farmer in the mix with the opposite profile, a strong defender with a subpar bat. He hit .253/.314/.405 this year for a 99 wRC+ while adding quality defense at all four infield positions. His projected arbitration salary of $6.6MM for next year might feel high for a bench/utility player, but he’s produced at least 1.5 fWAR for three straight seasons now.

Julien’s defense arguably makes him a candidate to move over to first base, but the Twins also have an option there. Alex Kirilloff hit .270/.348/.445 in 2023 for a 120 wRC+, an encouraging development after poor results in previous seasons caused by wrist issues. He’s set to undergo shoulder surgery this month, but it’s on his non-throwing arm.

The designated hitter spot could help the Twins find at-bats for all these guys, but then there’s the looming Byron Buxton question. The center fielder was kept exclusively in the designated hitter spot in 2023 due to his ongoing knee issues. It’s hoped he’ll be healthier next year after undergoing an arthroscopic procedure on his knee last week, but the club will likely have to plan on keeping the DH spot free for him until he proves he doesn’t need it.

Another factor is that the Twins may want to get some more starting pitching. Each of Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Dallas Keuchel are heading into free agency, subtracting three options from the rotation. They will still have Pablo López, Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan, but some question marks beyond that. Chris Paddack will be in the mix but has only thrown 27 1/3 innings in the past two years combined due to Tommy John surgery. Louie Varland could be another factor but he’s relatively unproven, with just 94 big league innings to his name thus far.

The Twins could turn to the free agent market to help replace those starters, or departing reliever Emilio Pagán, but there’s some uncertainty in terms of the budget. The club is still trying to sort out its broadcasting situation in the wake of the Diamond Sports Group/Bally Sports bankruptcy. President of baseball operations Derek Falvey recently admitted that this could have an impact on the club’s payroll next year.

Injuries are inevitable as the Twins well know, having dealt with their share over the years. Perhaps they will opt to simply hold onto Polanco with the knowledge that they will eventually need depth and that space will be made for all their infielders. But if they did make Polanco available, he would surely garner plenty of interest given the weak free agent market. This provides the club with an avenue to address other parts of the roster while perhaps saving money instead of spending it.

What do the MLBTR readers think? Should the Twins hang onto Polanco or put him on the trading block? Have your say in the poll below!

(poll link for app users)

Offseason Outlook: Minnesota Twins

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The Twins finally snapped their ignominious playoff drought, breaking an 18-game postseason losing streak by sweeping the Blue Jays in the Wild Card Series. After being eliminated by the defending champions in the second round, they turn their attention to an offseason that could see some turnover among what was arguably the sport’s best rotation.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

  • Club holds $10.5MM option on 2B Jorge Polanco ($1MM buyout); deal also includes ’25 team option
  • Club holds $10MM option on RF Max Kepler ($1MM buyout)

2024 financial commitments (assuming both options exercised): $88.025MM
Total future commitments (assuming both options exercised): $358.775MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (salaries projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Farmer, Luplow, Alcalá, De León

Free Agents

After disappointing seasons in 2021-22, the Twins returned to October. Minnesota’s 87 wins were enough to handily take the AL Central in another down year. After knocking out the Blue Jays in the first round, Minnesota dropped a four-game Division Series to the Astros. Their efforts to return to the playoffs begin in a couple weeks, with the starting rotation the primary focus.

After years of maligned rotations and quick hooks for starters, Minnesota turned its rotation into an overpowering strength. Only three teams relied on their rotation for more innings. The Twins trailed only the Padres in starting pitcher ERA, while the staff narrowly topped the Rays’ for the highest strikeout rate in the majors.

The team MVP may have been Sonny Gray. The veteran righty pitched to a 2.79 ERA across 32 starts. He made his third All-Star Game and could secure a top three Cy Young finish for the second time. It was an ideal time for arguably the best season of a very good career, as the 10-year veteran is a few weeks from his first trip to free agency.

Minnesota will make Gray a qualifying offer, which he’ll certainly decline. That’d entitle them to a draft choice if he signs elsewhere. Gray has spoken positively of the organization, while president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said they’ll remain in contact throughout the offseason. While Minnesota retaining Gray can’t be entirely ruled out, the organization may be reluctant to meet an asking price that should easily top the $63MM secured by Chris Bassitt and could push towards nine figures.

Gray will be joined in free agency by two other Minnesota starters. Dallas Keuchel heads back to the market and likely won’t be retained after posting a 5.97 ERA across 10 outings. More impactful is the potential departure of Kenta Maeda. The 35-year-old has had a strong if volatile few seasons since being acquired from the Dodgers in the Mookie Betts three-team blockbuster. He was the Cy Young runner-up after twirling 11 starts of 2.70 ERA ball during the shortened season. He followed up with an ERA approaching 5.00 in 2021 before undergoing Tommy John surgery towards year’s end. Rehabbing that injury kept him out for all of 2022.

Maeda returned to post a 4.23 ERA through 104 1/3 innings this past season. That’s inflated by a 10-run drubbing at the hands of the Yankees on April 26, which directly preceded a two-month injured list stay due to a triceps strain. From the time of his return on June 23, Maeda worked to a 3.36 ERA with an excellent 29% strikeout rate while holding opponents to a .219/.279/.401 batting line in 88 1/3 frames.

As with Gray, Maeda is eligible to receive a qualifying offer. Unlike his rotation mate, Maeda might happily take a one-year deal in the $20.5MM range if the Twins put it on the table. Whether to make him the QO is one of the biggest decisions for Falvey and his front office at the start of the offseason. A full season of Maeda’s second-half production would be well worth that price. Whether he can keep that up for another year is a matter of debate, as he’ll be 36 in April and has a checkered injury history.

The Twins are a mid-market franchise. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, they ran a payroll in the $154MM range this year — the #17 figure in the majors. Pending a pair of obvious option decisions (more on those in a bit), they’ll begin the offseason with roughly $88MM in guaranteed contracts for 2024. The arbitration class is projected to tack on around $17MM, although a non-tender of infielder Kyle Farmer would subtract nearly $7MM from that sum.

That should afford the front office some freedom for a lofty one-year salary if they feel Maeda is capable of another strong year. Falvey noted last week that the collapse of Diamond Sports Group — the parent corporation of the Bally Sports TV networks that had carried Twins’ in-market broadcasts — adds some uncertainty to the offseason budget. There’s nothing to suggest the organization is about to dramatically slash payroll, however, and the club did get a boost in the form of four home playoff games this fall.

Whether Gray or Maeda return, three-fifths of the rotation is settled. Pablo López had another excellent year in his first season after being acquired in the Luis Arraez trade. Joe Ryan has a secure hold on a rotation spot despite a rough second half. Righty Bailey Ober had a very strong year to solidify himself as a mid-rotation arm.

Chris Paddack figures to hold the fourth spot. Acquired in the Taylor Rogers trade just before Opening Day 2022, Paddack made five starts before undergoing the second Tommy John procedure of his career. He was out into September, returning for five relief appearances between the regular season’s final week and the playoffs. Minnesota signed him through 2025 last spring, buying out his first would-be free agent year while giving the righty some stability halfway through his rehab.

The top option beyond that group seems to be right-hander Louie Varland. The 25-year-old (26 in December) has been more effective out of the bullpen than the rotation in his brief MLB career. He had a strong season in the rotation for Triple-A St. Paul, posting a 3.97 ERA while striking out a quarter of opponents in 81 2/3 innings. Varland could get a crack at a back-end job out of camp or begin the season in the major league relief corps with the potential to move to the rotation if necessary.

If each of Gray and Maeda walk, Minnesota could go into the middle tiers of free agency for a veteran starter. Players like Michael Lorenzen, Sean Manaea (if he opts out of his deal with the Giants) and old friend Kyle Gibson are among the options. Signing a veteran to eat some innings could keep the likes of Varland, Brent Headrick and Simeon Woods Richardson in relief and/or increase the possibility of trading from that group for bullpen or position player depth.

Minnesota’s strong rotation performance is made all the more impressive by the absence of Tyler Mahle. The Twins received just five starts this year from the right-hander, one of their top deadline acquisitions in 2022. That trade turned out to be a major misstep, as both Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand look like long-term infielders for the Reds. Mahle battled shoulder issues in 2022 and suffered an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery this May.

That takes him out of consideration for the qualifying offer as he nears free agency for the first time. Mahle should find a two-year deal that gives him up-front security while he rehabs in the short term. A signing team would potentially welcome Mahle back late next season while getting a mid-rotation starter at a below-market price in 2025. It remains to be seen if the Twins would have interest in such an arrangement, which could check in between $15MM and $25MM total.

Minnesota’s bullpen wasn’t as good as the rotation, although it held up well enough. Flame-throwing Jhoan Durán is an elite option in the ninth. Brock Stewart went from unheralded minor league signee to high-leverage weapon. Griffin Jax had a rocky second half but solid peripherals and a decent 3.86 ERA overall. Veteran Caleb Thielbar and rookie Kody Funderburk make for a promising pair of left-handed options.

The Twins could add one more arm in the middle to late innings. Emilio Pagán rebounded from a horrible first season in Minnesota to post a 2.99 ERA while leading the relief corps with 69 1/3 innings. He is headed to free agency, so re-signing Pagán or bringing in another arm to take on that workload should be of interest.

Minnesota’s slate of impending free agents on the position player side is fairly modest. The group is headlined by Michael A. Taylor, who hit 21 home runs while playing customarily strong center field defense following an offseason trade with the Royals. While Taylor’s offensive upside is capped by a poor strikeout and walk profile, the power and glove have made him a low-end regular for the better part of a decade. He should find a multi-year deal this winter.

Taylor’s initial acquisition came as a surprise, since a good portion of Byron Buxton’s value is in his ability to play an elite center field. Buxton battled right knee issues all season and couldn’t play defense, though, spending the entire year as a designated hitter. He recently underwent arthroscopic surgery that’ll hopefully allow him to get back on the field in 2024. Given his litany of injuries generally and problems with the knee in particular, Buxton may not be an everyday option in center field at this point.

How comfortable the Twins are with the former Gold Glove winner’s health will play a big role in how they approach the outfield this offseason. Exercising a $10MM option to retain Max Kepler is an obvious call after an excellent second half. The German-born outfielder could return to a regular right field role while offering cover for Buxton in center if Taylor walks. If the Twins aren’t comfortable with Buxton or Kepler assuming regular center field work, retaining Taylor or bringing in someone like Harrison Bader makes sense.

Even if/when they let Joey Gallo depart in free agency, Minnesota will have their typical abundance of left-handed hitting outfielders. The likes of Alex Kirilloff, Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach and Nick Gordon (along with Kepler himself) were the subject of trade speculation both last offseason and at the deadline. Aside from Kepler, Wallner is the only one of the group who has improved his trade value over the past few months.

Kirilloff, who has moved increasingly to first base over the corner outfield, continues to battle injury issues. He spent time on the IL with a right shoulder strain. Continued pain eventually forced him off the playoff roster and will require labrum surgery next week. Kirilloff hit well when healthy — .270/.348/.445 in 88 games — so it’d be a surprise to see the Twins move him while his value is at a low ebb.

Wallner, meanwhile, has settled in nicely as a power bat who can rotate through the corner outfield and DH. That’s the role the organization had envisioned for Larnach, a former first-round draftee who hasn’t hit consistently over parts of three big league seasons. He has performed well despite elevated strikeout tallies in Triple-A and could have appeal to a non-contender that can afford to give him a full season of reps in left field. Gordon, meanwhile, looked like a quality bat-first utility option in 2022 but missed most of this past season with a broken leg.

There’s a similar depth of talent on the infield. The club holds a $10.5MM option on Jorge Polanco, another easy call to exercise. The switch-hitter put together a .255/.335/.454 showing in 80 games and has been an above-average hitter in five of the past six seasons. He can split his time between second and third base. Even if the Twins felt they had enough infield talent to make Polanco expendable, there’d be surplus value on the option. Exercising that provision and trading him is more plausible than declining the option entirely, although the likeliest outcome is simply that they keep him for 2024.

Polanco would split time with a pair of youngsters on the infield. Edouard Julien had an impressive rookie season offensively. He might be better suited for DH or first base than consistent run in the middle infield, but he’ll be in the lineup somewhere.

Former first overall pick Royce Lewis seized the third base job with a monster second half, which he carried into the playoffs. Lewis was the Twins’ best player down the stretch and looks like a potential franchise player after returning from a second ACL tear. With five seasons of club control, there’s no urgency for Minnesota to talk extension. Lewis looks like the player the Twins expected when they drafted him six years ago, so they could at least gauge his asking price on a potential early-career deal — as they signed with Polanco and Kepler back in 2019.

Carlos Correa will be back at shortstop. The first season of his $200MM deal didn’t go as planned. Correa had a below-average .230/.312/.399 showing in the worst full year of his career. The two-time All-Star played through plantar fasciitis in his left foot and seemed inhibited for most of the season. They’ll hope an offseason of rest gets him back to his typical level of production.

The combination of Lewis’ return to health and Julien’s emergence could lead the Twins to subtract an infielder. Opening Day third baseman José Miranda has plummeted down the depth chart, although it’s a suboptimal time to trade him coming off season-ending shoulder surgery. Farmer and Willi Castro are veteran utility options who are into their arbitration years.

Farmer has the loftier projected salary ($6.6MM against $3.2MM) and played less of a role down the stretch. Assuming the Twins retain Castro, non-tendering or trading Farmer for a minimal return to clear payroll room makes sense. Perhaps they could reallocate that money to Donovan Solano, who hit .282/.369/.391 in 450 plate appearances. He’s headed back to free agency and likely earned a raise over this past season’s $2MM salary. Headed into his age-36 season, he’s likely still looking at one-year offers — whether from the Twins or elsewhere.

There’s little suspense behind the plate. Ryan Jeffers is one of the game’s better catchers. He’ll take the majority of playing time, with Christian Vázquez on hand as a quality #2 option.

Despite the potential loss of this year’s top starter, the Twins are well positioned going into 2024. They won 87 games without much of a contribution from Buxton or Correa and a little more than a third of a season out of Lewis. Even if the starting pitching takes a step back, a lineup that ranked 10th in run scoring this year could push closer to top five with better health from its stars. Whatever they do this winter, they should enter next season as the favorites to repeat in an AL Central that may again be the sport’s least talented division.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held a Twins-centric chat on 10-17-23. Click here to view the transcript.

Big Hype Prospects: Flores, Manzardo, Bliss, Montgomery, Hassell

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Our coverage of the Arizona Fall League continues. Jakob Marsee remains the top hitter with a 1.442 OPS in 44 plate appearances. The title of top pitcher is less clear. Perhaps it’s 27-year-old southpaw reliever Jake McSteen? He’s worked 4.2 innings of hitless ball with six strikeouts. He hit one batter.

Let’s see who else merits a look.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Wilmer Flores, 22, SP, DET
(AA) 80.2 IP, 9.15 K/9, 3.57 BB/9, 3.90 ERA

Flores performs like someone with a Major League future. He induces plenty of whiffs, limits walks, and generally runs around a 50 percent ground ball rate. Typically, pitchers who can show those three traits go on to have a nice career (health permitting). Sometimes, they have to take the long road like Cristopher Sanchez or Erick Fedde.

My contacts don’t like Flores’ pitch design, though it’s been at least half a year since I’ve received an update on that front. In brief, as of April, his pitches didn’t tunnel well. This is his second stint in the AFL. In three games, all relief appearances, he’s thrown eight innings while allowing nine hits, one walk, one hit batter, one run, and nine strikeouts. Flores is Rule 5 eligible this winter. Barring catastrophe, he’ll soon be on the Tigers 40-man roster. Though he has the look and stuff of a starter, a debut in the bullpen would allow him to ignore those pitch design concerns.

Kyle Manzardo, 23, 1B, CLE
(AAA) 415 PA, 17 HR, 1 SB, .237/.337/.464

Widely expected to debut for the Rays in 2023, Manzardo instead turned in a 95 wRC+ for the Durham Bulls. He was traded at the deadline to Cleveland. A lefty-hitter, righty-thrower, Manzardo makes for an unusual first base prospect. At an even six feet tall, he’s on the short end for the position. His discipline- and contact-forward approach isn’t what most clubs crave from the cold corner. Of course, the Guardians are not most teams. They appreciate discipline and high contact rates. It even appears they’ve coached him away from the extreme pulled-contact approach he featured in Durham. He finished the season on a high note for Guardians Triple-A affiliate, batting .256/.348/.590 in 92 plate appearances. In 40 AFL plate appearances, he’s hitting .286/.390/.657.

Ryan Bliss, 23, 2B, SEA
(AA/AAA) 612 PA, 23 HR, 55 SB, .304/.378/.524

The Mariners acquired Bliss at the trade deadline. He figures to serve a utility role going forward, though he’s only a positive defender at second base. Despite 23 home runs, Bliss has below-average quality of contact. His stolen base total also inflates his speed which is merely above average. The trait that makes him a future big leaguer is his ability to hit breaking pitches. A tiny right-hander, Bliss is susceptible to velocity at the top of the zone. If carefully managed, Bliss could play up in a platoon role. In 26 AFL plate appearances, he’s hitting .350/.500/.400.

Colson Montgomery, 21, SS, CWS
(Cpx/A+/AA) 223 PA, 8 HR, 2 SB, .287/.456/.484

After missing much of the 2023 season, Montgomery bears watching. The White Sox top prospect is among the AFL leaders with three home runs in 35 plate appearances. He’s also yet to record a walk in an OBP-centric league. Even worse, he has 11 strikeouts. My guess is the White Sox sent Montgomery to the AFL to work on power and aggression. He’s always verged on passivity and rarely gets to his power in-game. Strikingly, he seems to maximize for day-to-day performance rather than an eventual Major League outcome. Perhaps these less-than-desirable AFL results represent the proverbial one step back for two steps forward.

Robert Hassell, 22, OF, WSH
(AA) 476 PA, 8 HR, 13 SB, .225/.316/.324

A precocious fast-riser in the Padres system, Hassell’s star began to dim not long before he was included in the Juan Soto trade. After a little over a year with the Nats, Hassell has scarcely shown a pulse. That extends his .286/.317/.286 batting line in 38 AFL plate appearances. Along with the lack of pop, he also has 11 strikeouts. At the time of the Soto blockbuster, Hassell was a consensus Top 100 prospect. Now it’s hard to find evaluators who believe he has a second act in him. My two cents: he needs to do something to combat his passivity and lift the ball with more authority. That doesn’t mean selling out for power either. Most of his contact is soft and more than half of his batted balls are grounders. Even an increase in line drive singles would go a long way toward him becoming a viable Major Leaguer.

For those hunting for a silver lining, Hassell is credited with gritty-gamer makeup and might have been negatively affected by a hamate injury suffered in the 2022 AFL. Possibly, he’s tinkered in the wrong direction and merely needs a fresh adjustment to get back on track.

Three More

Harry Ford, SEA (20): Ford is disciplined and powerful as evidenced by his seven walks and three home runs in 25 AFL plate appearances. Those dingers represent the total sum of his hitting – he has a .000 BABIP.

Davis Daniel, LAA (26): Daniel is already on the 40-man roster with 12.1 Major League innings to his name. He profiles as a spot starter or middle reliever – the sort that can provide bulk relief. He’s among the top AFL performers with 10 innings, 15 strikeouts, three hits, three walks, and one run allowed.

Jacob Berry, MIA (22): A former sixth-overall pick from the 2022 draft, Berry is a switch-hitting designated hitter who has looked overmatched at every level. The AFL offers him an opportunity to work with new coaches and possibly get his career back on track. Presently, he’s on the exit ramp.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Michael Harris II Has Built On His Rookie Of The Year Campaign

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The breakout performance of center fielder Michael Harris II was one of the most exciting storylines for the Braves last season. The 21-year-old rookie was called up to the big leagues at the end of May in 2022 and never looked back, slashing a fantastic .297/.339/.514 in 441 trips to the plate while swiping 20 bases and playing excellent defense in center field. That performance earned him NL Rookie of the Year honors in addition to a few downballot MVP votes, despite the youngster only appearing in 114 games that season.

The Braves saw enough in Harris’s performance to ink the youngster to an eight-year, $72MM extension before his rookie season had even come to a close, and it’s easy to see why. After all, Harris’ 134 wRC+ ranked in the top-25 among all major league hitters with at least 400 plate appearances last year, and his defense in center field was nothing short of superlative. Only Victor Robles, Myles Straw, and Michael A. Taylor outperformed Harris’s +8 Defensive Runs Saved last year among center fielders, while his +7 Outs Above Average left Harris tied with Cody Bellinger and Alek Thomas for sixth-most among center fielders with at least 250 attempts last year.

That being said, there were potential red flags in Harris’s profile last season that made it fair to wonder if he could replicate his excellent offensive season going forward. Of those, the biggest one was perhaps his strikeout rate. Of the 36 players who posted a wRC+ higher than 130 last season (min. 400 PA), just three of them struck out more often than Harris’s 24.3% rate: Aaron Judge, Mike Trout, and Julio Rodriguez. Harris, who hit 19 home runs in 2022 and posted an ISO of just .217, did not have the titanic power of that aforementioned trio with which to make up for his swing and miss tendencies. In addition, Harris’s 4.8% walk rate was by far the lowest of the bunch. In fact, Harris actually ranked in just the 11th percentile in all of baseball last year in terms of walk rate, per Statcast.

It’s easy to see why Harris was striking out so much. Harris swung at a whopping 41.7% of pitches he saw outside of the strike zone while making contact on just 59.7% of those swings. Only Javier Baez, Nick Castellanos, and Michael Chavis swung and missed at more pitches outside of the zone last year. Harris’s free-swinging approach isn’t helped by pitches in the zone much, either. The youngster posted a roughly average 67.9% swing rate on pitches inside the zone, and his 86.2% contact rate on pitches in the zone was actually slightly below league average last year. Between Harris’s reckless swing decisions and middling power numbers, it was easy to see how he could regress significantly headed into 2023. Advanced metrics agreed with that assessment, as Harris’s .368 wOBA noticeably outstripped his .335 xwOBA in 2022.

Early in the 2023 campaign, it appeared that Harris was indeed destined for a serious sophomore slump. After missing most of April due to a back injury, Harris looked brutal at the plate through the beginning of June. In his first 138 plate appearances of the season, Harris posted a brutal .163/.246/.244 slash line with a 25.4% strikeout rate and just two home runs. That being said, he was still playing his typical excellent defense and had an uncharacteristically low .207 BABIP. That was enough for the Braves to stick with their struggling youngster despite his abysmal start with the bat.

The club’s patience paid off, as Harris hit a phenomenal .335/.360/.552 the rest of the way. That impressive slash line is good for a 142 wRC+, the sixteenth-best figure in the majors over that span and on par with the likes of Bellinger and Bryce Harper. Perhaps most exciting is Harris’s improvement in terms of strikeout rate, as he punched out in just 16.5% of his plate appearances during that 100-game stretch. While Harris continued to swing too often- his 42.3% swing rate on pitches outside of the strike zone was ninth-highest in the majors, even during that torrid stretch- he made far more contact on those swings. Harris made contact on a whopping 69.8% of swings on pitches outside the strike zone while posting a 89.1% contact rate on pitches in the zone.

Taken together, Harris’s improvements in contact rate allowed him to post a strikeout rate of just 18.7% on the year good for the 71st percentile among qualified hitters. Though his cold stretch to open the year left his overall season numbers to fall short of his rookie season, as he posted a wRC+ of just 115 on the year, Harris’s peripherals in 2023 are a far better match for his production, indicating he should be able to sustain this level of offensive production going forward. In fact, Harris’s .345 wOBA in 2023 is actually ten points lower than his .355 xwOBA, indicating there could even be a small amount of positive regression in Harris’s future, if he’s able to build on his improved contact rates in 2024.

MLBTR Poll: Reviewing The 2022-23 Free Agent Shortstop Class

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Last offseason’s free agent class, while headlined by Yankees slugger Aaron Judge, is perhaps most notable for the quartet of free agent shortstops that stood near the top of the class: Trea Turner, who signed with the Phillies; Xander Bogaerts, who landed in San Diego; Carlos Correa, who returned to the Twins after physical issues scuttled deals in both San Francisco and Queens; and Dansby Swanson, who joined the Cubs. With the 2023 season all but complete and free agency nearly upon us once again, let’s take a look at the four shortstops, their performance in 2023, and their remaining contracts:

Trea Turner (Phillies)

Contract: 10 years, $272.72MM remaining covering age 31-40 seasons

Turner’s first season in Philadelphia was a difficult one for much of the year. After riding a hot stretch through the first week of the season, the next two months were nothing short of brutal as Turner slashed just .210/.259/.341 over his next 51 games. At that point in the season, the Phillies were the fourth-place team in the NL East with a disappointing 27-32 record. Of course, the team would turn things around from there, ultimately winning 90 games en route to a second consecutive NLCS appearance. As the Phillies improved, Turner followed suit, slashing a far stronger .288/.347/.517 the rest of the way. Those solid numbers are primarily thanks to Turner’s fantastic performance down the stretch this season; he slashed an incredible .317/.371/.629 in August and September. Turner’s success has continued into the postseason, as he’s slashed a whopping .500/.538/.917 during the Phillies’ postseason run to this point.

Taken together, Turner’s weak start to the season saw him post his worst campaign since 2018 as he slashed .266/.320/.459 with a 108 wRC+ while posting weak defensive metrics (-5 Outs Above Average, -12 Defensive Runs Saved). That being said, he still provided considerable value on the basepaths, going a perfect 30-for-30 in stolen base attempts, and his strong finish to the season could indicate that Turner can regain his offensive form of the previous three seasons (139 wRC+ 2020-2022). Turner’s 3.8 fWAR this season was the ninth-best mark among qualified shortstops in 2023.

Xander Bogaerts (Padres)

Contract: 10 years, $254.55MM remaining covering age 31-40 seasons

Like Turner, Bogaerts had an up-and-down start to his 2023 campaign. His first month in San Diego hardly could’ve gone better, as Bogaerts slashed .308/.400/.514 through the end of April, but a nagging wrist issue saw his production plummet in May, when he slashed just .200/.283/.263 in 25 games. From there, Bogaerts saw his production even out, as he slashed .300/.353/.462 from June 1 onward, allowing him to finish the season with stats largely in line with his consistent career numbers, even as the 82-80 Padres fell short of expectations. In 665 trips to the plate this season, Bogaerts slashed .285/.350/.440 with a wRC+ of 120. That performance is good for his sixth-consecutive season with a 120 wRC+ or better, and his eighth-consecutive full season with more than 3.0 fWAR. Defensive metrics were mixed on Bogaerts this season, as he posted a -4 DRS but a +3 OAA. Bogaerts’s 4.4 fWAR this season was the seventh-best mark among qualified shortstops in 2023.

Carlos Correa (Twins)

Contract: Five years, $166.67MM remaining covering age 29-33 seasons; four vesting options could take total to nine years, $236.67 remaining covering age 29-37 seasons

After failing physicals with both the Giants and the Mets this past offseason before returning to Minnesota, Correa saw his health remain a focal point throughout the 2023 campaign. Though he avoided the injured list for much of the year, both his offense and defense suffered as he battled plantar fasciitis for most of the season. Typically an above-average offensive threat and strong defender at shortstop, Correa posted the worst season of his career this year as he slashed just .230/.312/.399 (96 wRC+) while posting middling defensive metrics (+1 OAA, -2 DRS). That being said, after going on the injured list for the final weeks of the regular season, Correa impressed in the playoffs with a .409/.458/.545 slash line in six games as the Twins won their first postseason series since 2002. The injury marred campaign makes Correa difficult to project going forward, though as the youngest of the four top shortstops from last offseason’s class, he has youth on his side. Correa’s 1.1 fWAR this season was 17th among the 21 qualified shortstops in 2023.

Dansby Swanson (Cubs)

Contract: Six years, $163MM remaining covering age 30-35 seasons

Swanson’s first year in Chicago was a difficult one to predict, as the 29-year-old was coming off a career year in 2022 where he slashed a career-best .277/.329/.447 while posting elite defensive metrics. Ultimately, the bat fell back to Earth a bit in 2023 as Swanson slashed a solid but unexceptional .244/.328/.416 that was good for roughly league average (104 wRC+), while oscillating between considerable hot streaks (including a midsummer stretch where Swanson slugged .618 with nine home runs in 99 plate appearances) and equally significant cold stretches (including a .161/.254/.304 slash line in his final 14 games of the season). One thing that remained consistent throughout Swanson’s season, however, was his stellar defense. Swanson was the best defensive shortstop in baseball this year according to both DRS (+18) and OAA (+20), allowing him to post a strong 4.9 fWAR that was outstripped by only Corey Seager, Francisco Lindor, and Bobby Witt among qualified shortstops in 2023.

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So, one year in, which contract is looking the best to MLBTR readers? Turner remains an exciting talent on the basepaths and finished the season strong, but defensive miscues and his cold start to the season could be early signs of declining production. Bogaerts remained consistent as ever in all facets of the game, pairing solid offense with average defense, while Correa’s superstar potential took a backseat in an injury-marred season. Meanwhile, Swanson flashed incredible defense but was essentially league average on offense, as is consistent with his profile in recent years. Which player would you most like to have on your team in 2024 and beyond? Have your say in the poll below.

(poll link for app users)

Offseason Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays

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In conjunction with this post, Mark Polishuk will hold a Blue Jays-centric chat on 10-14-23 at 7:00PM CDT.  Click here to leave a question in advance.

The Blue Jays scored only one run in their two Wild Card Series games with the Twins, capping off a season of offensive disappointment.  With several position-player free agents perhaps on the way out of town, the Jays will try to retool and reinvigorate a shaky lineup.

Guaranteed Contracts

2024 financial commitments: $110.5MM
Total future commitments: $323MM

Option Decisions

  • Whit Merrifield, 2B/OF: $18MM mutual option ($500K buyout)
  • Chad Green, RP: $27MM club option covering 2024-26 seasons (if declined, Green has $6.25MM player option for 2024; if both options are declined, Blue Jays can then exercise a $21MM club option covering the 2024-25 seasons)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2024 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The Blue Jays finished 29th of 30 teams in stolen-base percentage, 27th in Fangraphs’ BsR metric (baserunning runs above average), tied for 26th in sacrifice flies, and tied for 28th in sac hits overall.  Toronto also made the fifth-most outs on the bases of any club, while hitting into the fourth-most double plays.  Combined with middle-of-the-pack numbers in homers and production with runners in scoring position, and it wasn’t any surprise that the Jays had issues consistently generating offense, despite respectable or even impressive numbers in other offensive categories.

It was a startling step backwards for a team that, if anything, looked to be relying on its offense to carry a seemingly shaky rotation heading into 2023.  The offseason trades of Teoscar Hernandez and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. don’t tell the whole story of the lineup’s decline, since while Gurriel replacement Daulton Varsho struggled badly at the plate, the Jays’ larger problem was that almost all of their returning hitters took steps backwards.

Of every Blue Jays hitter who had at least 120 plate appearances for the team in both 2022 and 2023, only Cavan Biggio (from 97 to 103) improved his wRC+ over the two seasons.  Several other regulars took drastic drops — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. from 133 to 118, George Springer from 133 to 104, Danny Jansen from 141 to 116, Alejandro Kirk from 129 to 96, and Whit Merrifield from 120 to 93.

The result was a season full of close, often low-scoring games that kept the Jays grinding from day one amidst the very competitive AL East race.  As it turned out, the rotation (as well as a very good bullpen and excellent defense) helped carry Toronto to another wild card berth, except just like in 2022, the Jays suffered a demoralizing two-game sweep.  The Twins only needed to score five runs over the two WCS games to top the scuffling Jays lineup, with base-running mistakes from Guerrero and Bo Bichette short-circuiting two of Toronto’s few possible rallies.

Some of the club’s better offensive performers are now hitting free agency, adding another layer of difficulty to the Blue Jays’ attempts to solve their hitting problems.  One would imagine the Jays would have interest in re-signing Kevin Kiermaier and Brandon Belt in particular, assuming Belt plays at all next season and foregoes retirement.  However, since both players stayed relatively healthy, they might be looking to move on to more lucrative deals or preferred locations elsewhere.  Kiermaier, for one, has publicly expressed his preference for playing on grass fields, so he might opt to finally seek out a natural surface after 11 seasons on the artificial grass in Tampa Bay and Toronto.

Matt Chapman is in the strange position of being both one of the winter’s top free agents, yet also a player with something to prove in 2024.  Chapman displayed his typically excellent third-base glovework, yet hit a modest .240/.330/.424 with 17 homers in 581 plate appearances — his 110 wRC+ was down from his 118 total in 2022.  Moreover, almost all of Chapman’s best offensive moments came in April, when he won AL Player of the Month honors.  From May 1 onward, Chapman had a subpar 84 wRC+ in 467 PA, and was further bothered by a finger injury over the season’s last two months.

With all this in mind, the Blue Jays might prefer to just receive draft pick compensation for Chapman, and let him walk in free agency rather than sign him to what will still very likely be a nine-figure free agent deal.  The decision on Whit Merrifield is easier since the Jays won’t be exercising their end of his $18MM mutual option, but if both Merrifield and Chapman leave, that’s suddenly two starting infield positions to be filled.

Since Varsho can take over center field for Kiermaier, that would leave third base, second base, left field, and DH as the open positions if all four of Belt, Kiermaier, Chapman, and Merrifield departed.  For DH, the Jays might try to replace Belt with another left-handed hitter who could semi-platoon with Kirk, and possibly seek out a lefty-swinger who could play more positions than just first base.  In that scenario, the Blue Jays might not have a true regular DH at all, but instead use the spot to give multiple players half-days off.  Rookie Spencer Horwitz might also factor into the picture as an in-house left-handed bat who can play first base.

(Since we’re talking designated hitters, cue the obligatory Shohei Ohtani mention.  As aggressive as Toronto has been in pursuing free agents during GM Ross Atkins’ tenure, it would count as a big surprise to see the Jays win the bidding for the record-setting contract it will take to land Ohtani.)

Returning to internal options, the Blue Jays figure to go that route for one of second base or third base.  Davis Schneider’s bat came back to reality in September, but the rookie’s hot start to his career has likely earned the mustachioed fan favorite a shot at at least a platoon job heading into Spring Training.  Biggio probably did enough to preserve his roster spot, but Santiago Espinal hit poorly and looks like a non-tender candidate.

Prospects Orelvis Martinez, Addison Barger, and Leo Jimenez all look set to make their MLB debuts in 2024, with Martinez and Barger in particular candidates for something closer to everyday roles.  Barger might ultimately be Toronto’s third baseman of the future, and while Martinez is a bit more of a question mark in regards to his eventual infield landing spot, his hitting potential is very intriguing.  By contrast, Jimenez is a work in progress hitting-wise, yet his glove will make him at least a backup middle infielder on a big league roster.

The Blue Jays would probably prefer to devote just one position for some combination of their in-house players, leaving the other infield spot open for a big league regular.  Infield-heavy teams like the Guardians, Cardinals, or even the division-rival Orioles could be fits as trade partners, and making a deal might be a preferred option for the Jays in finding a true upgrade since there isn’t a lot of depth in either the second or third base free agent markets.

That being said, Blue Jays president/CEO Mark Shapiro has stated that the team plans to at least match its $215MM payroll (and estimated $248MM luxury tax number, putting the Jays over the first tax line).  With a good chunk of money coming off the books, this gives Toronto roughly $40-$45MM in spending capacity, and room to make another splashy move.

Looking at the infield market, then, bringing Jeimer Candelario or Justin Turner into the fold couldn’t be ruled out.  Candelario would be a longer-term signing, settling in at third base at least for a couple more seasons and then possibly moving into a first base/DH capacity if his defense declines or if Barger emerges as a legitimate third base option.  Turner could be an even better fit since he’d only require a shorter-term contract as he enters his age-39 season, but Turner could slide between both corner infield slots and DH as circumstances dictate.  It is also worth noting that the Blue Jays targeted Turner the last time that he was both a free agent and when the Jays last had a third-base vacancy.

Left field seems like the obvious position for a new bat to be added, again probably a left-handed hitter given the righty tilt of Toronto’s lineup.  Joc Pederson or former Jays targets Michael Brantley or Michael Conforto could be fits, and the resurgent Jason Heyward could be an option since the Jays will still be looking to keep their defense strong.  The switch-hitting Aaron Hicks figures to get attention from Toronto and several other teams, since he’ll only cost a minimum MLB salary because the Yankees are paying the remainder of his 2024-25 salaries.

If specifically left-handed hitting outfielders aren’t a must, then a reunion with Hernandez or Gurriel can’t be ruled out.  Hernandez’s numbers dropped off in his first season in Seattle, which figures to lower his free-agent price tag to some extent even if the Mariners will probably still issue him a qualifying offer.  If Hernandez didn’t get a QO but was still open to a one-year pillow contract as a way of elevating his profile for next winter’s free agent market, a return to Toronto might be feasible, as the Blue Jays had interest in Hernandez back at the trade deadline.

Turning to the pitching front, the Jays will likely still add an arm or two to the bullpen, though most of their relievers are still controlled in 2024.  The hard-throwing Jordan Hicks will draw plenty of interest around the league, and if he doesn’t re-sign, Toronto will look for someone else to bring some velocity to the back of the pen.

Some level of extra rotation help will be needed, since the odds of that top four starters all remaining as effective and healthy as they were in 2023 is quite slim.  But, for the first time in several seasons, the Blue Jays have the luxury of a mostly settled rotation.  Kevin Gausman was a Cy Young Award candidate, and Chris Bassitt, Jose Berrios, and Yusei Kikuchi were all very good to solid over the course of the year.  For Berrios and Kikuchi in particular, they delivered tremendous bounce-back performances after struggling badly in 2022.

Hyun Jin Ryu pitched pretty well after returning from Tommy John surgery and could be a candidate to re-sign, but Ryu might be looking for a bigger contract than the Jays are willing to give considering how much money Toronto has already invested in its starters.  The Blue Jays could look for couple of veteran innings-eater types to compete for the fifth starter job and to provide depth, with an eye towards promoting star prospect Ricky Tiedemann in the second half if Tiedemann pitches well at Triple-A.

Alek Manoah is still ostensibly the fifth starter heading into 2024, yet the right-hander is now an X-factor after his unusual 2023 campaign.  Manoah had a 5.87 ERA over 87 1/3 innings, during a season that included a month-long stint at extended Spring Training to work on his mechanics, and no pitching appearances at all after August 10 due to unclear reasons, ranging from possible injury to some discord with the organization.

It’s anyone’s guess as to how Manoah will pitch next season, or perhaps even if he’ll pitch at all.  If there are some behind-the-scenes issues souring things, the Jays might prefer to part ways with Manoah altogether via trade.  Naturally his trade value is low at the moment, but since Manoah was a Cy Young candidate just in 2022, several teams will have interest in exploring if a change of scenery can revive his career.

Manoah’s situation is uniquely abnormal, yet it relates to the larger uncertainty over the players the Blue Jays were counting on as cornerstones.  Atkins has done a pretty solid job of adding productive free agents and trade pieces to this core group, but the Jays now face the increasingly worrisome possibility that this core isn’t as solid as once thought.  To this end, in the same way that Hernandez and Gurriel were traded to change the Jays’ offensive shape last winter, would they consider again trading from their core to remake the lineup?

It can be safely assumed that Bichette and (for contract size alone) Springer aren’t going anywhere.  Varsho and Kirk would each have some trade value but as sell-low type of players given their underwhelming batting numbers.  Plus, moving Varsho or Kirk would then open up another position that the Blue Jays would have to address — Varsho was basically always intended as Kiermaier’s eventual replacement in center field, while Kirk is insurance at catcher since Danny Jansen has had trouble staying off the injured list.

As wild as this concept would’ve sounded two seasons ago, could Guerrero then be a trade chip?  It would still be selling low in some regard, since Guerrero was only decent at the plate in 2023 and took a big step back defensively at first base.  But, Guerrero’s youth, superstar profile, and his MVP-level numbers in 2021 still give him plenty of trade value, and there are surely lots of teams who will look at his Statcast metrics and think a turn-around is inevitable.  Trading Guerrero could be seen as incredibly bold or as incredibly risky, and it might not be something the front office quite wants to consider just yet.

For one, the Blue Jays might want to see how Guerrero and the other regulars might respond to a new hitting strategy, since rumors have swirled all season about the fate of hitting coach Guillermo Martinez.  It has yet to be revealed how much (if any) overhaul is coming to the coaching staff, though that could be a logical way of making an internal shakeup since GM Ross Atkins has already announced that manager John Schneider will be returning in 2024.

Likewise, Shapiro announced that Atkins is returning, even if the president/CEO stated “there needs to be a higher level of transparency and communication with our players in our preparation and game-planning process.”  How the Blue Jays will make these changes remains to be seen, but simply getting their hitters back to their 2022 form (even as inconsistent as that season was) would make a world of difference to the Jays going forward.

Winning solves everything, as the cliche goes, but winning 89 games and making the postseason again wasn’t enough to clear the atmosphere that seemed to grind the Blue Jays down as the season wore on.  With Toronto’s fanbase becoming increasingly impatient for results, Atkins faces a pivotal offseason in determining how to fix the problems both on and off the field.

MLBTR Poll: Tim Anderson’s Club Option

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The 2023 was a brutal one for the White Sox, who entered the year with postseason aspirations but found themselves as one of the league’s biggest sellers come the trade deadline. The club ultimately lost 101 games in 2023, their second 100-loss campaign in six years. While the club is facing a host of problems, from a pitching staff stripped to the bone by midseason trades to reported clubhouse culture issues, perhaps the biggest reason for concern about the club’s fortunes going forward is the fall from grace of franchise shortstop Tim Anderson.

Since breaking out during the 2019 season, Anderson has been a face of the franchise on the south side of Chicago. From 2019-2021, the young shortstop slashed an excellent .322/.349/.495 (126 wRC+) in 295 games while approaching a 20/20 campaign in both full seasons of that stretch. He led all qualified hitters in batting average during that stretch while playing a solid shortstop, and was a key piece of what looked to be a sustainable White Sox core for the future.

Unfortunately, things started to come off the rails for both Chicago and Anderson himself in 2022. Anderson’s offense regressed somewhat as he slashed .301/.339/.395 (110 wRC+). While he posted a career-best strikeout rate of just 15.7%, that improved contact did not make up for Anderson’s power outage, as he posted a career-low .093 ISO, the 18th-lowest figure of all players with as many plate appearances as him that season. To make matters worse, Anderson was limited to just 79 games by two separate IL stints for groin and finger injuries. While Anderson struggled to stay on the field, the White Sox faltered in his absence, going just 81-81 and missing the playoffs for the first time since 2019.

After a downturn in performance for both club and player, both sides hoped for better days in 2023, but those days did not arrive. Amid the club’s worst season since their 106-loss campaign in 1970, Anderson had far and away the worst season of his career. The 30-year-old slashed a paltry .245/.286/.296 in 524 trips to the plate, a figure that’s 40% worse than league average by measure of wRC+. His wRC+, ISO, wOBA, and slugging percentage were all the worst in the majors among all qualified hitters, and his on-base percentage also ranked in the bottom five.

Anderson’s brutal season has caused plenty of speculation regarding his future in the White Sox organization. The club holds a $14MM club option on his services for the 2024 season with a $1MM buyout. While the $13MM decision once appeared to be a no-brainer for one of the league’s better regulars at a premium position, the future now appears anything but certain for Anderson and Chicago. New GM Chris Getz recently spoke about the upcoming decision on Anderson, indicating that the decision “deserves an exhaustive discussion” considering Anderson’s importance to the organization in recent years, though he offered no assurance that Anderson would return to the South Side next year.

Further complicating matters is the lack of quality shortstop options on the open market this season. If the club wishes to move on from Anderson, they’ll be hard-pressed to find a clear upgrade in free agency with Amed Rosario and Gio Urshela headlining the upcoming class. Of course, top prospect Colson Montgomery is figures to be the club’s shortstop of the future following a big season that saw him advance to Double-A late in the year. While Montgomery is certainly on the radar for a big league debut as soon as next year, it seems unlikely Chicago would be content to use him as the Opening Day shortstop next year after just 37 games at the Double-A level. Retaining Anderson certainly wouldn’t block Montgomery, as Anderson himself has expressed a willingness to move to second base going forward.

Ultimately, the upcoming option decision leaves the White Sox forced to choose between risking overpaying Anderson for another abysmal year of production in 2024 or risking him returning to form elsewhere when he could’ve been retained on a relative bargain compared to his typical production. How do MLBTR readers feel the White Sox should approach the upcoming decision on Anderson’s option? Have your say in the poll below.

(poll link for app users)

Offseason Outlook: Seattle Mariners

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The American League featured seven good teams in 2023, but with only six playoff spots, one of them had to be heartbroken. In the end, it was the Mariners, who couldn’t get back to the postseason after breaking their drought the year before. The good news is that most of the roster is sticking around for another shot at it, with plenty of payroll space for offseason additions.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Julio Rodríguez, OF: $190MM through 2034 (can increase based on All-Star selections and awards voting; club has multi-year option after 2028, player has opt-out after 2029)
  • Luis Castillo, RHP: $91MM through 2027 (includes conditional club/vesting option for 2028)
  • Robbie Ray, LHP: $73MM through 2026 (includes opt-out after ’24)
  • J.P. Crawford, SS: $31MM through 2026
  • Evan White, 1B: $17MM through 2025 (includes buyout on ’26 option; club also has options for 27-28)
  • Eugenio Suárez, 3B: $13MM through 2024 (includes buyout of ’25 club option)
  • Marco Gonzales, LHP: $12MM through 2024 (club has ’25 option with no buyout)
  • Dylan Moore, IF/OF: $6.625MM through 2025
  • Andrés Muñoz, RHP: $4.5MM through 2025 (club has 26-28 options with no buyouts)

Option Decisions

  • None

Other Financial Commitments

  • None

2024 financial commitments: $102.8MM
Total future commitments: $459.125MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Torrens, Thornton, Rojas

Free Agents

The Mariners broke a 20-year playoff drought in 2022, winning 90 games and getting a Wild Card spot. They ran it back with a fairly similar roster in 2023 but regressed slightly to 88 wins. That was enough for them to miss the playoffs by just one game, getting eliminated in the final weekend of the season.

The good news is that the many of the same ingredients will remain on the roster with a small number of departing free agents, putting them in good position to compete again in 2024. Their best asset in 2023 was run prevention, as only the Brewers and Padres allowed fewer than the 659 runs Seattle surrendered. They did that in spite of losing Robbie Ray to Tommy John surgery early in the season, with rookies stepping up to fill the void.

Ray is currently expected back around the All-Star break, but the rotation looks to be in good shape without him. Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo, Emerson Hancock and Marco Gonzales give the club seven viable rotation options. Gonzales was injured for much of 2023 but made 32 starts the year before with a 4.13 ERA. Each of Miller, Woo and Hancock debuted this year with solid results, all of them posting an earned run average between 4.20 and 4.50. They each have options and can be kept in the minors if the club wants to preserve depth and manage their innings.

It’s possible that there are enough arms here that the club considers trading from this pile for offense. But they were in a similar situation last year and ended up hanging onto all of their starters. Since pitching injuries are fairly inevitable and eventually came to pass for Ray and Gonzales, the club is probably glad they picked that path and may do so again. But if they take a different tack this time, they would surely find plenty of interest. The Cardinals are just one of many clubs looking for starting pitching and have already been connected to Gilbert, but it’s unclear if the Mariners are interested in such a path.

In the bullpen, despite recent trades of Erik Swanson and Paul Sewald, there are still plenty of excellent pieces in place. Andrés Muñoz, Matt Brash and Justin Topa each posted an ERA of 3.06 or lower this year, with solid contributions from Gabe Speier, Tayler Saucedo and others as well. The aforementioned trades of Swanson and Sewald show the club is not afraid of dealing from the bullpen to address other areas, but the midseason Sewald deal may have rubbed some the wrong way. Since that has echoes of the Kendall Graveman trade of years past, perhaps the club will opt for holding onto their relievers for now.

Whether it’s through trade or free agency, adding thump to the lineup figures to be a priority for president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and general manager Justin Hollander this winter. Their 758 runs scored in 2023 was 12th in the majors, behind most other postseason clubs. Part of that is due to their pitching-friendly home ballpark but wRC+, which controls for such things, had them ninth. Teoscar Hernández had a down year relative to his own standards but his departure for free agency nonetheless increases the challenge of upgrading the offense.

The catcher position won’t be a high priority, as Cal Raleigh has emerged as one of the best power-hitting backstops in the league. Tom Murphy reaching free agency creates a bit of a hole at the backup spot, with Luis Torrens and Brian O’Keefe on hand to replace him. Bringing back Murphy or another veteran could be on the to-do list, though that’s likely not going to be where the club prioritizes adding offense. Even glove-first options like Luke Maile or Austin Hedges would be fine here.

On the infield, J.P. Crawford took a big step forward at shortstop but second base was a black hole. The club’s flier on Kolten Wong was disastrous, as he hit just .165/.241/.227 for the M’s. He got released and the club rotated Josh Rojas, Dylan Moore and José Caballero through the spot down the stretch. This is one clear spot where the club could look for upgrades but the free agent class isn’t strong, with Whit Merrifield, Amed Rosario and Adam Frazier the headliners. None of those guys are likely to replace the production of the departing Hernandez but it would be hard for them to be worse than Wong. The trade market could offer Gleyber Torres, Jonathan India or Brendan Donovan, though it’s unclear how willing their respective clubs would be to make them available in offseason talks.

At the corners, Eugenio Suárez had a bit of a down year but it doesn’t seem to be too much cause for concern. His batting average and on-base percentage were close to his numbers from the year before, but his homers dropped from 31 to 22, which pushed his wRC+ down from 130 to 102. His hard hit rates were very similar from year to year yet his rate of fly balls leaving the yard dropped from 19.3% to 12.9%. Since he’s still under contract, it seems fair to expect the M’s will keep him at the hot corner and hope for better luck next year.

It’s a similar story at the other corner, with Ty France also experiencing a power dip as his hard hit rate and exit velocity stayed fairly steady. He hit just 12 home runs in 2023 after launching 20 the year before, causing his wRC+ to drop from 125 to 104. He’ll be due a raise to $7.2MM via arbitration, which will be good value if his luck turns next year. Mike Ford struck out in 32.3% of his plate appearances but also popped 16 homers in just 251 plate appearances. He’ll be due an arbitration raise but to barely above the league minimum, which should prompt the M’s to keep him around at least as a bench bat.

In the outfield, Julio Rodríguez is the anchor up the middle but both corners are now question marks. In left field, Jarred Kelenic was above-average overall but struck out in 31.7% of his plate appearances. Cade Marlowe had similar results in a small sample size. Dominic Canzone crushed a few balls but had an OBP of .258 thanks to a low walk rate and BABIP.

Kelenic probably did enough to earn a job next year, but Hernández will need to be replaced, meaning the club should add at least one corner outfielder. Hernández himself is the top of the class, but it’s possible the M’s let him walk in order to collect a draft pick after he rejects a qualifying offer. He’s coming off a down year and could consider accepting, but it’s a weak group of free agent hitters overall, which should nudge him towards the open market. Beyond him, the best options are players like Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Tommy Pham, with Michael Conforto and Jorge Soler perhaps opting out of their deals. Any of those would be a good fit in Seattle, though it’s debatable whether any of them are clear upgrades over Hernández.

There’s also Cody Bellinger, who is the clear top outfield option overall. He won’t supplant Rodríguez in center but the M’s could theoretically sign him and move him to a corner spot. But since his ability to play above-average defense in center is part of his appeal, they could be outbid by a team with a cleaner roster fit.

Of course, the best way for the club to upgrade their lineup would be to sign Shohei Ohtani, though it’s tough to say how likely that is. Even though he won’t pitch in 2024, he figures to get a record-setting contract based on his elite hitting and the potential of returning to the mound in 2025. The Mariners have been seen as a potential Ohtani landing spot, given his supposed preference for a West Coast team and to play for a contender.

The Mariners fit on both counts and also have arguably the strongest legacy of using Japanese players. A lot of that is due to the legendary status of Ichiro Suzuki, but they have also had Yusei Kikuchi, Shigetoshi Hasegawa, Nori Aoki, Hisashi Iwakuma and many others on their roster at various times throughout the years. That could have some degree of importance to Ohtani, but it would likely be supplementary to the primary concerns of the financials and the winning culture.

Speaking of the money, the Mariners are in a decent place there with barely over $100MM committed for 2024. That doesn’t include the arbitration class, but that only projects to add about $15-20MM, depending on who is tendered a contract. They had an Opening Day payroll over $137MM this year, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but were in the $150-160MM range prior to the pandemic. It seems fair to assume they would happily spend at that level again if it meant bringing Ohtani aboard, considering both his talents and the international marketing opportunities.

But they certainly won’t be the only team with a strong willingness to fit Ohtani onto the roster. The Dodgers can market themselves with a greater track record of winning than the Mariners, and also have higher spending capacity. Other clubs like the Giants, Angels, Rangers and Mets could all be argued to be sensible fits as well.

It’s possible that the offseason of the Mariners, and maybe the entire league, will start out slowly as the Ohtani situation plays out. There are many clubs that will have Ohtani as Plan A and everything else as Plan B. This applies to the Mariners perhaps as much as any other club.

That leaves open two distinct forks in the road ahead. On one path, the Mariners get Ohtani, who immediately gives them the lineup upgrade they need and creates a positive energy around the future of the club. Or they don’t get Ohtani and are looking to spread their money around to some combination of Bellinger, Hernández, Merrifield, Gurriel, Conforto, Frazier, Torres or Soler. One path is obviously more exciting than the other, but both should lead the club to a good place next year. Competing with the Astros and Rangers won’t be easy, but everything is in place for another three-team showdown in the West next year.

In conjunction with this post, Darragh McDonald held a Mariners-specific chat on 10-13-23. Click here to view the transcript.

Nico Hoerner Is Already Making His Extension Look Good

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When the Cubs announced that they had agreed to terms with second baseman Nico Hoerner on a three-year contract extension on the eve of Opening Day back in March, the deal was regarded as a somewhat surprising one around the league. As noted by MLBTR’s Anthony Franco at the time of the deal, it’s unusual for a player to sign an extension that buys out just one free agent year once eligible for arbitration. The deal that Hoerner and the Cubs agreed upon did just that, however: the deal covers the 2024-26 campaigns, buying out Hoerner’s final two years of arbitration and his first year as a free agent for a total guarantee of $35MM.

That’s a fairly hefty sum for a player who was making just over $2.5MM for the 2023 season after his first trip through arbitration. Hoerner was coming off a strong season as the club’s starting shortstop in 2022, where he accumulated 4.0 fWAR thanks to strong defense at short combined with offense that was just a touch above league average (106 wRC+). Impressive as that season was, there were plenty of questions about whether or not he would be able to replicate his 2022. Hoerner had struggled badly with injuries in 2021, missing three months with forearm, hamstring, and oblique issues. What’s more, the club’s offseason signing of Dansby Swanson pushed Hoerner to second base, where his strong defense would be less valuable. Given those question marks, it was fair to wonder if the Cubs were overvaluing their former first-round pick.

Fortunately for both sides, Hoerner’s 2023 campaign was a major step toward quieting any doubts regarding the decision to extend him. Concerns about Hoerner as an injury-prone player were surely quieted by him following up a 135-game campaign last year by spending just eleven days of the season on the IL with 150 games played and a whopping 688 plate appearances, one more than his 2021 and ’22 seasons combined.

The similar sample sizes demonstrate how consistent Hoerner’s production with the bat has been. After slashing .286/.341/.400 (106 wRC+) in 2021-22, Hoerner’s 2023 season was virtually identical with a slash line of .283/.346/.383 with a wRC+ of 102. Though his power dipped slightly, he made up for it by walking at an improved 7.1% clip while posting a phenomenal 12.1% strikeout rate. Only seven qualified hitters struck out less often than Hoerner in 2023, and of them only Luis Arraez, Jose Ramirez, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Alex Bregman posted better offensive seasons by measure of wRC+. His 88.6% contact rate was third best in baseball this year, behind only Arraez and Steven Kwan.

Hoerner’s defense has been similarly consistent. His glovework at shortstop last year was strong in 2022, with +10 Defensive Runs Saved per Fielding Bible and +13 Outs Above Average per Statcast. After moving to second this year, however, his defense has received even stronger marks. His +14 DRS in 2023 is the ninth-best figure among all infielders this season, while his +15 OAA ranks eighth among qualified infielders. Only Swanson, Ke’Bryan Hayes, and Andres Gimenez posted better marks than Hoerner according to both metrics this year.

In addition to repeating the elite strikeout rate and middle infield defense that made the Cubs want to extend him in the first place, Hoerner’s added another dimension to his game this year by becoming one of the top base stealing threats in the majors. After stealing 20 bases in 2022, the 26-year-old took his baserunning to another level this season by swiping 43 bags, fifth-most in the majors, in just 50 attempts. According to Fangraphs’ all-encompassing baserunning metric, BsR, Hoerner’s 9.7 figure was second best in all of the major leagues behind only rookie sensation Corbin Carroll, who became just the sixth player this century to steal 50 bases in his rookie season.

Taking Hoerner’s defense, contract ability, and baserunning together, his 2023 campaign was worth 4.7 fWAR, tied with Yandy Diaz and Cal Raleigh for the 22nd-best figure in the sport. If Hoerner is able to keep up anything close to this level of production over the life of his extension, a deal that left many scratching their heads at the start of the season will look like an excellent gamble by Chicago’s front office, and Hoerner could find himself in line for a much larger payday following the 2026 season, when he’ll still be just 29 years old.

Offseason Outlook: New York Mets

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The Mets endured one of the most disappointing seasons in history and now change is the name of the game. There’s a new front office regime in place, which will hopefully lead to better results going forward. It’s expected that they will be less aggressive this winter, but by how much?

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

Other Financial Commitments

  • Paying $30.83MM to Rangers for Max Scherzer’s salary
  • Paying $31.3MM to Astros for Justin Verlander’s salary (plus half of $35MM vesting option in ’25, if triggered)
  • Paying $8MM to Orioles for James McCann
  • $250K buyout on 2024 club option for IF/OF Darin Ruf

2024 financial commitments (assuming options for Narvaez/Ottavino/Raley are all picked up): $218.98MM
Total future commitments (assuming options for Narvaez/Ottavino/Raley are picked up, not including Verlander’s ’25 option): $714.98MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Vogelbach, Hernández, Smith, Guillorme, Locastro, Coonrod, Brigham, Curtiss, Pérez, Mendick, Ortega

Free Agents

The Mets won 101 games in 2022 and then ran up the highest payroll in baseball history for 2023, going into the season with the greatest of expectations. Unfortunately, a rash of pitcher injuries put them behind the eight ball early on and they fell out of contention. As the summer wore on and the plane continued its descent towards the ocean, they had no choice but to reach for the emergency floatation devices. They traded Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Tommy Pham, Mark Canha and David Robertson, often eating substantial amounts of money in order to improve their prospect returns.

After that fire sale, Scherzer told the media that he was informed the Mets planned to take a sort of step back in 2024. Owner Steve Cohen and then-general manager Billy Eppler sort of confirmed those remarks, with each adding that the club hopes to compete in ’24 but with a greater focus on ’25 and ’26. “We will be competitive in ’24 but I think ’25-26 is when our young talent makes an impact,” Cohen said at the time. “Lots of pitching in free agency in ’24. More payroll flexibility in ’25. Got a lot of dead money in ’24.”

That makes it unclear exactly how the club will approach the upcoming winter, but it won’t be Eppler calling the shots. David Stearns was hired to be the new president of baseball operations, leaving the Brewers and coming over to run the team he grew up cheering for. Since Milwaukee was generally quite competitive under Stearns despite limited payrolls, it’s hoped that he can bring even more success to Queens now that he will have Cohen’s resources at his disposal.

It was originally expected that Eppler would stay on as GM and work under Stearns, but he recently stepped aside amid a strange league investigation into the club’s use of the injured list. Stearns also fired manager Buck Showalter, leaving that position vacant as well. Presumably, replacing Showalter will be the higher priority, as Stearns should be capable of steering the front office without a GM for the time being.

Though the Mets ended up saving some money by selling at the deadline, they still have a payroll of $346MM for the year, per Roster Resource. That translates to a competitive balance tax figure of roughly $359MM, still well beyond the highest luxury tax threshold of $293MM, leading to a tax bill of over $88MM.

It seems they want to dial things back in the year to come, though there’s already plenty on the books, with RR pegging their 2024 payroll at $204MM and their CBT number at $219MM. That’s before factoring in estimated arbitration salaries. Pete Alonso alone will add over $20MM to both of those figures, putting them above next year’s $237MM base threshold for the luxury tax before the offseason even begins. They could move some money around if dipping under than line is a priority, but it doesn’t seem to be. Stearns has said the club plans to retain Alonso, while Cohen’s comments suggest the club is looking to bring in free agent pitchers this winter.

How aggressive they will be in that market remains to be seen, but there is definitely work to be done. With Scherzer and Verlander both out of the picture, the rotation is now headlined by Kodai Senga, who posted an excellent 2.98 earned run average in his first major league season. José Quintana missed much of 2023 due to injury but should be able to serve as a solid mid-rotation arm. After that is where things get murky. David Peterson, Tylor Megill, Joey Lucchesi, Peyton Battenfield and José Butto but the Mets likely don’t want to be relying on that group for anything more than depth.

That means they could realistically add two or three starters this winter. Given they are thinking of 2024 as a kind of transitional season, they probably won’t be aiming for top-of-the-market names like Blake Snell or Aaron Nola. Perhaps they would still consider Yoshinobu Yamamoto since he’s just 25 years old and would still line up with their future plans. But it’s also possible they target a lower level of free agency, perhaps taking fliers on bouncebacks from Frankie Montas or Luis Severino. Veterans like Kenta Maeda or Hyun Jin Ryu could eat some innings on short-term deals, with the knowledge that they may end up traded if the club is out of contention by next summer.

In the bullpen, Edwin Díaz will be back after a season lost to a fluke knee injury. Adam Ottavino seems likely to trigger his player option and come back for another season. Brooks Raley posted an ERA under 3.00 for a second straight year and the club should pick up his option, given the reasonable $5.25MM net decision. Trevor Gott should be in the mix after his decent season, especially after the club ate Chris Flexen’s contract to acquire him. But beyond that group, the bullpen core is a host of waiver claim types such as Phil Bickford and Anthony Kay.

A run at an expensive arm like Josh Hader or Robert Stephenson seems unlikely, but a few veterans on one-year deals would be sensible to strengthen the relief corps and also perhaps turn into deadline trade fodder. Craig Kimbrel, Matt Moore and John Brebbia are some of the many options there.

On the position player side, there should be less work to do. Francisco Álvarez took the catching job and ran with it this year. He received strong marks for his glovework while also popping 25 home runs. His offense was around league average on the whole thanks to a .209 batting average and .284 on-base percentage, but his .222 batting average on balls in play figures to improve going forward. Omar Narváez missed much of the year due to a calf strain and struggled after getting healthy but should be capable of serving as a solid backup.

Alonso figures to have first base spoken for, assuming he sticks around. His name was apparently discussed in trade rumors at the deadline but no deal came together. He’s entering his final arbitration season before he’s slated to reach free agency. As mentioned, Stearns has indicated the club plans to keep him for 2024 but he could wind up back on the trading block next summer if no extension is reached and the Mets aren’t in contention.

Francisco Lindor had yet another excellent season and should be back anchoring shortstop next year. He underwent surgery this week to remove a bone spur from his elbow but is expected to be ready for Spring Training. His double play partner will likely be Jeff McNeil, who started slow in 2023 but recovered in the second half. The Mets could theoretically add a second baseman and move McNeil to the outfield, but given the poor free agent market for middle infielders, it makes more sense to him to man the keystone. Middle infield prospect Luisangel Acuña could be a factor at some point next year, at which point McNeil could move to the grass.

Third base is a bit less certain, though there are internal options. Each of Brett Baty, Mark Vientos and Ronny Mauricio were highly-touted prospects on their way up but none of them have established themselves at the big league level yet. The club could consider a veteran stopgap here but it could also roll with a spring competition, leaving room for one of this group to break out and take the job.

The outfield will be anchored by Brandon Nimmo, who had a second straight healthy and productive season. The corners are a bit more questionable, especially with Starling Marte’s ongoing groin problems. He only played 86 games this year and had the worst showing of his career when healthy enough to play. With his injury absences and Canha being traded, DJ Stewart got a lengthy showing to finish the year. He struck out in 30.3% of his plate appearances but also hit 11 home runs in just 58 games. The power has been there before but he’s a poor fielder, which could perhaps lead the club to non-tender Daniel Vogelbach and make Stewart their left-handed DH.

There should be room for a veteran corner outfielder, or perhaps two if Marte remains a question mark. Assuming the club doesn’t go to the top available free agents like Teoscar Hernández or Lourdes Gurriel Jr., they could reunite with Tommy Pham or perhaps reach out to someone like Jason Heyward, Robbie Grossman or David Peralta.

It’s also possible the Mets throw their hat into the Shohei Ohtani bidding. It would be slightly incongruous to give out a record-setting contract in what’s supposed to be a quieter offseason, but it’s an unprecedented opportunity and Cohen can’t really be ruled out on anyone. Ohtani reportedly had a West Coast preference when he first came over from Japan but it’s in his best interest to entertain all suitors this time in order to maximize his earning power. He won’t be able to pitch in 2024 but could theoretically join the Mets’ rotation in 2025 while also adding a potent bat to the lineup right away.

The club is still a bit of a mystery this winter, especially with Cohen constantly deviating from standard operating procedure. Last winter’s aggression was unprecedented so it remains to be seen what his definition of a more modest offseason looks like. But with the division featuring a couple of powerhouse teams in Atlanta and Philadelphia as well as a Marlins club that’s coming off a strong campaign, it seems fair to expect the Mets play things somewhat cautiously for now, keeping their eyes on a future that will hopefully have plenty to be excited about with the Stearns-Cohen pairing.

In conjunction with this post, Darragh McDonald held a Padres-specific chat on 10-12-23. Click here to view the transcript.

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