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MLBTR Poll: Is Buck Showalter The Right Leader For These Mets?

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Just before Christmas, the Mets made perhaps their biggest decision of the offseason (which is saying a lot) by hiring Buck Showalter as their skipper. The Mets have been the picture of instability in recent seasons, especially when it comes to their management team. From Carlos Beltran’s hiring-and-firing, to the Jared Porter debacle, to the Mickey Callaway debacle, to the Zack Scott debacle, it’s been a comedy of errors for the Mets – and with this one decision, they hope to turn the tide.

Enter Showalter, who not only is a veteran skipper, but he’s well-respected throughout the game. If nothing else, he ought to be able to finish his contact without committing a crime. And yet, that’s not enough for a franchise that’s put together a solid collection of baseball talent. Just ask Luis Rojas. This team wants to win, and if it does, Showalter will big one of the reasons why.

The track record is there, even if Showalter carries the unfortunate distinction of leaving two different stops the year before they won the World Series. Championships are hardly linear, of course. Whether it should be seen as a positive or a negative that the Yankees and Diamondbacks both won titles the year after he left is a debate for another day.

Let’s stick to the facts for a moment: He has a .506 career winning percentage as a manager over 3,069 games. His teams made the playoffs five times in 20 seasons. His best season, by record, was cut short by the strike in 1994. His worst season, by record, was his last, a 115-loss disaster in 2018 with the Orioles.

Mike Puma of the New York Post went through Showalter’s managerial history, looking back on his stops with the Yankees, Diamondbacks, Rangers, and Orioles. Wherever he went, Showalter was hailed as a solid tactician, incredibly intelligent about the game, and a strong communicator with his players. The latter may be the most important for a beleaguered bunch playing under the bright spotlight of New York.

Showalter has some of baseball’s best clubhouse veterans there to help him in Max Scherzer and Francisco Lindor. Along with Jacob deGrom, the Mets have the big names to match big expectations in the big apple. Having begun his career with the Yankees, Showalter knows a little something about what it’s like to play under those conditions.

The concern in hiring Showalter would be that he’s older now, and the last we saw of him in the dugout, he was perceived to be falling behind the times in terms of baseball’s analytics movement. Generalizations are stickier than comprehensive analysis, however, and there’s clearly more to Showalter’s time in Baltimore than just his decision to hold Zack Britton for a potential save that never came in the 2016 playoffs – even if that’s the moment that sticks.

The first test for Showalter is filling out his coaching staff. He appears to have made his first big decision by hiring Joey Cora to coach third base. Cora joins Showalter and pitching coach Jeremy Hefner on the staff. A lot more decisions are yet to come. Per the latest from MLB’s Anthony DiComo, Showalter said of filling out his staff, “There are so many good, qualified people out there. … We’re moving as fast as we can, but we don’t want to make a mistake. These are very precious and important jobs, and there’s got to be a collaboration with it.” 

Limited though our information may be, does the Showalter hire have the Mets on the right track? MLBTR readers, lend us your wisdom: is Showalter the right guy to lead these Mets? Let’s keep this simple for the poll and hash out the details in the comments.

(poll link for Trade Rumors iOS/Android app users)

Where Will Castellanos And Schwarber Land?

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As comparable bat-first players, Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber were the topic of a Free Agent Faceoff post by Darragh McDonald last week.  Back on November 8th, MLBTR projected a five-year, $115MM contract for Castellanos (who also requires draft pick compensation) and a four-year, $70MM deal for Schwarber.

We debated whether such a financial gap makes sense – is Castellanos really that much better right now?  Ultimately we projected the difference to represent our guess at the perception of the two players: Castellanos has always been a regular in his career and signed a four-year, $64MM free agent deal already, while Schwarber was non-tendered after the 2020 season and was often shielded against lefties as a member of the Cubs.  We could be wrong about this supposed difference in perception; the post-lockout market will provide the answer.  On November 29th, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweeted that Castellanos sought a seven or eight-year deal.

Since switching to the outfield full-time in 2018, Castellanos has spent the vast majority of his defensive innings in right field.  Schwarber settled in as a left fielder as of 2017, though the Red Sox used him as a first baseman in 10 regular season games plus another nine in the postseason.  In a perfect world, both players might spend most of their time at designated hitter, which seems likely to become a permanent part of the National League in 2022.  One key difference between the two is that Castellanos bats right-handed, and Schwarber bats left-handed.  Let’s take a look at potential suitors.

  • White Sox: Eloy Jimenez is entrenched in left field and Jose Abreu will play first base in ’22, but the Sox could consider an upgrade at right field or designated hitter, where Adam Engel, Andrew Vaughn, and Gavin Sheets currently project to see time.  Signing Castellanos would result in the club forfeiting their second-highest draft pick in ’22 and having their international signing pool reduced by $500K, assuming rules from the previous CBA carry over for the remainder of the offseason.  I don’t see the White Sox making this level of financial commitment with decent options already in-house.
  • Guardians:  The Guardians’ DH spot is occupied by Franmil Reyes, but they don’t have much going on at the outfield corners and figure to make some sort of addition.  The franchise has never guaranteed a player more than the $60MM they gave Carlos Santana five years ago.  It’s possible the price tag for Castellanos or Schwarber falls into that range.  The Guardians have perhaps $36MM accounted for across eight players earning more than the league minimum.  Aside from Jose Ramirez at $12MM, they might not have another player set to earn more than $5MM in 2022.  If the team runs a $50MM Opening Day payroll again, then Castellanos and Schwarber won’t be part of it, but the team reached $135MM as recently as 2018.  The Guardians also face a smaller draft pick penalty, as they’d surrender only their third-highest pick for Castellanos.
  • Tigers: Castellanos was a first round draft pick of the Tigers in 2010 and remained with the organization until his 2019 trade to the Cubs.  On the way out, he called Comerica Park “a joke,” so he’s probably not looking to return.  Aside from that, Castellanos would actually look really good at an outfield corner or the DH spot for the Tigers, and their draft pick compensation would be reduced since they already signed Eduardo Rodriguez.  But the club hasn’t given indications it’s looking to upgrade at those spots, so both Castellanos and Schwarber are probably out.
  • Royals: The Royals have never given a free agent more than $72MM, and that was their own guy in Alex Gordon.  Otherwise, I think adding one of these players at right field or DH would improve the club.
  • Twins: The Twins could upgrade on projected left fielder Trevor Larnach, but given the state of their starting rotation this doesn’t seem likely.
  • Red Sox: Though they traded for Schwarber during the summer, I’m not sure a big commitment to either player is necessary or fits Chaim Bloom’s m.o.  They’ve got good first base options in Bobby Dalbec and Triston Casas.  J.D. Martinez has the DH spot at least for 2022.  Boston’s outfield is a bit unsettled with the swap of Hunter Renfroe for Jackie Bradley Jr., but they’ve still got Alex Verdugo, Kiké Hernández, and Jarren Duran in the mix.  Hernandez could play second base and Schwarber or Castellanos could work here, if Bloom is OK with the commitment.  Bloom did maintain interest in Schwarber in his public comments, even after Martinez opted in.
  • Yankees:  The Yankees have Aaron Judge and Joey Gallo at the outfield corners, Giancarlo Stanton at DH, and Luke Voit at first base.  Adding Castellanos or Schwarber doesn’t make much sense.  They still haven’t added a shortstop or starting pitching.
  • Rays: The Rays have never given a free agent more than $30MM in the Stuart Sternberg era.  They’re also flush with outfielders, even if they’re not at the proven offensive levels of Castellanos and Schwarber.  Perhaps if the bottom drops out for Schwarber’s market, the Rays trade away an outfielder or two, and they decide they’d like a big bat, this could make sense.  But it’s highly unlikely.
  • Blue Jays: Between right field and DH, the Jays could accommodate Castellanos or Schwarber.  A third baseman would seem a more obvious fit, but the Jays could pivot to one of these bats if needed or even add at both spots.
  • Astros: There’s simply not a spot for either player, with Michael Brantley, Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, and Yuli Gurriel already in tow.
  • Angels:  Adding Castellanos or Schwarber would involve pushing aside Brandon Marsh or Jo Adell, who have had limited success in the Majors thus far.  It’s not out of the question, but the Angels have more pressing needs at shortstop and in the rotation.  The Angels would have to give up their third-highest pick to sign Castellanos, having already forfeited their second rounder to sign Noah Syndergaard.
  • Mariners: It’d be odd to see the Mariners sign Castellanos or Schwarber instead of extending Mitch Haniger, who has one more year of team control.  Uber-prospects Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez are long-term outfield answers, and Kyle Lewis is also in the mix.  You could shoehorn in one of the free agent bats in Seattle, but it’s not an ideal fit.  The Mariners would surrender only their fourth-highest pick for signing Castellanos, having already signed Robbie Ray.
  • Rangers:  The Rangers have already lost their second and third-highest draft picks in 2022 for signing Corey Seager and Marcus Semien.  They’d give up their fourth-rounder to sign Castellanos.  You could view that as a lessened draft pick penalty, or you might say that the team won’t be inclined to further decimate their draft.  Kole Calhoun is slated to spend time in right field for the Rangers, but both outfield corners and DH are possible areas of upgrade.  Unless the Rangers have mostly reached their spending or draft pick forfeiture limit, Castellanos and Schwarber make sense here.

If the National League gets the DH, Castellanos and Schwarber could fit position-wise into any of these teams, since none of them actually have an incumbent DH.

  • Cubs: The Cubs’ decision to non-tender Schwarber looked foolish in 2021, but I don’t expect them to respond by signing him to a large free agent contract.  Castellanos was a popular, productive player in his brief time with the Cubs, and he could supplant Jason Heyward in right field.  But even if Castellanos’ demands dropped into the Cubs’ comfort zone (probably three years), the club would likely be reluctant to surrender their second-round draft pick.  If somehow Castellanos is not liking the offers (and perhaps the season starts late), perhaps he could pull a Keuchel/Kimbrel and sign after the draft.  In that case I could see the Cubs becoming interested, but it’s a long shot.
  • Reds: With the club in cost-cutting mode, they’re not expected to re-sign Castellanos or any other big free agent.
  • Brewers: The Brewers are set on the outfield corners with Christian Yelich and Hunter Renfroe.  DH is open, and there could be first base at-bats as well, but I think payroll restrictions would be the issue here unless one of the players drops his demands and/or they clear salary.
  • Cardinals: With Tyler O’Neill, Dylan Carlson, and Paul Goldschmidt, the clearest path to playing time would be at DH.  The Cardinals are not out of the question, but it’d be a surprise.
  • Braves: The Braves have Marcell Ozuna and Adam Duvall slated for the outfield corners.  It’s unclear what they plan to do with Ozuna following last year’s domestic violence incident.  I could see the Braves looking into Castellanos or Schwarber at three years or fewer, but probably only in a scenario where Freddie Freeman signs elsewhere.
  • Marlins: As a native of Hialeah, Florida, Castellanos has often been linked to the Marlins.  They already signed Avisail Garcia to play right field, but were said to still be in the market for outfielders.  On December 2nd, Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald wrote that the club viewed Castellanos as too expensive, but Schwarber “particularly appeals to them.”  Jackson and Mish reported that Schwarber’s asking price was in the three-year, $60MM range.
  • Mets: The Mets could potentially squeeze in one of these players at DH, though the rotation would seem to be a greater priority.  Castellanos is likely out, as signing him would require the Mets to forfeit the #14 pick in the draft.
  • Phillies: The Phillies could add a bat at left field or DH, though neither Castellanos or Schwarber would help with their center field void.  There’s a Dave Dombrowski-Castellanos connection from their time in Detroit together, and they’re known to have had contact prior to the lockout.  The club reportedly pursued Schwarber as well.
  • Nationals: The Nats could use Schwarber back in left field or at DH, but signing either player long-term wouldn’t fit as part of a reboot.  Still, asked if he wants Schwarber back, GM Mike Rizzo replied, “Why wouldn’t we?” back in November.  Starting pitching would seem to be a greater priority.
  • Rockies: The Rockies have yet to address their outfield this offseason, and I think they’re a viable suitor for both players.  Either one could be plugged in easily at an outfield corner or DH.
  • Dodgers: Castellanos or Schwarber would likely have to split time between left field and DH if they were to sign with the Dodgers.  It doesn’t seem like their type of signing, and the rotation is more pressing.
  • Padres: Left field and DH both work here, and the Padres are known to be looking for a bat.  The Padres are a viable suitor for either player, though they may need to clear payroll space.  The club reportedly showed strong interest in Castellanos prior to the lockout.
  • Giants: The Giants have Mike Yastrzemski and LaMonte Wade Jr. penciled in at the outfield corners, and I think Castellanos or Schwarber would be an easy roster fit.  The Giants can afford to sign any player they want, so it’s really just a matter of whether they like the value of these players, wherever their contracts land.  The Giants are not thought to be interested in $100MM contracts, though Castellanos won’t necessarily land there.

We’ll let the MLBTR readership weigh in. Where will each player end up?

(poll links for app users)

 

 

Free Agent Faceoff: Catcher Pile

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A lot has happened since MLBTR previewed this winter’s free agent catchers back in September. Several players were cast off of rosters as the season’s final months played out, which added some names to the pile. Some names were removed from the pile as well, as Yan Gomes, Manny Pina, Sandy Leon, Pedro Severino, Andrew Knapp and Roberto Perez all put pen to paper in the past few months. That means that an already-thin market is now even thinner, leaving teams with limited avenues for bolstering their catching corps. Trades are always an option, of course. But in terms of free agents, there are only five remaining catchers that played more than 35 games in 2021.

Stephen Vogt, 37, was designated for assignment by Atlanta in October, as the Braves were in the midst of their charge towards becoming World Series champions. It was revealed a few days later that Vogt had undergone sports hernia surgery, which isn’t expected to prevent him from being ready for spring training this year. He played 78 games in 2021, between the Diamondbacks and Braves. Although he has usually received more praise for his offense than his defensive work, he hit just .195/.283/.333, wRC+ of 64 this past season. He also had a rough campaign in 2020, but was productive as recently as 2019, when he hit .263/.314/.490. That amounted to a wRC+ of 106 and 0.9 fWAR in 99 games.

Kurt Suzuki, 38, signed a one-year deal with the Angels for 2021 and played 72 games for them this year. Like Vogt, he’s long been considered more of a bat-first catcher, but he hit only .224/.294/.343 for the Halos, for a wRC+ of 76. However, his wRC+ was over 100 in each of the previous four seasons. From 2017 to 2020, he hit 50 home runs and slashed .272/.337/.475, wRC+ of 111.

Robinson Chirinos, 37, has a similar profile to Vogt and Chirinos, often earning praise for his offensive skills. But unlike them, he’s not coming off a down year at the plate. From 2015 to 2019, he had an excellent five-year run, hitting 71 home runs and slashing .234/.340/.452, for a wRC+ of 109. The shortened 2020 campaign was not kind to him, however, as his line dropped to .162/.232/.243. He had to settle for a minor league deal with the Yankees for 2021 but was later signed by the Cubs to a major league deal. He got into 45 games for them and hit .227/.324/.454, wRC+ of 108.

Austin Wynns, 31, has spent his entire career with the Orioles thus far. They selected him in the 10th round of the 2013 draft. He’s played in 115 MLB games across three different seasons. In 2021, he got into 45 games and hit .185/.232/.308. He was outrighted off the roster and elected free agency in October. He’s the youngest of this group but also has the least significant track record at the plate. He does have a strong defensive reputation, however, and less than two years’ service time, meaning he could have years of cheap team control, unless the new CBA changes the service time rules.

Wilson Ramos, 34, split his season between Detroit and Cleveland, getting into 44 games on the year. He hit .205/.248/.397, for a wRC+ of 72. He’s long had a strong defensive reputation, though that has waned as injuries have taken their toll on him over the years. His 2021 season came to an end with an unfortunate injury in August. He isn’t too far removed from a 2019 season that saw him hit .288/.351/.416 for a wRC+ 105, but his health will be the major concern for him now.

Which of these backstops is the best option for teams that want to add some depth behind the plate? Have your say in the poll below.

(poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Should The D-Backs Trade Ketel Marte?

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There may be no bigger question for the Diamondbacks this winter than whether to trade Ketel Marte. A fourth-place finisher in 2019 NL MVP voting, Marte looked to be emerging as one of the game’s best position players. An average showing in the 2020 truncated schedule registered as a disappointment, but the switch-hitter returned to his 2019 form last year.

Marte hit .318/.377/.532, production that checked in 39 percentage points above the league average by measure of wRC+. Strains of both hamstrings limited him to just more than half of Arizona’s games, as he tallied 374 plate appearances over 90 contests. When healthy, Marte was dynamic, and his relative down year in 2020 now looks like an anomaly. In just under 1,200 plate appearances since the start of 2019, he’s a .318/.374/.543 hitter. His 137 wRC+ in that time ranks 11th among the 159 players with more than 1,000 trips to the plate.

That’s star-level offensive output, and Marte also offers up-the-middle defensive value. He didn’t acclimate well to a move to center field last year, but he’s rated as an average or better gloveman at second base. Some clubs may have reservations about his health after last year’s hamstring issues, but few players around the league can match Marte’s combination of bat-to-ball skills, raw power and athleticism.

In addition to his obvious talent, Marte’s incredibly affordable. He’ll play the 2022 season on a modest $8.4MM salary, and he’s controllable through 2024 via a pair of club options worth a combined $24MM. The Marlins are the only club known to have contacted the D-Backs about Marte this winter, but it stands to reason there are plenty of other teams with interest in a player of this caliber on such a team-friendly contract.

Whether the Diamondbacks would trade Marte is uncertain. They seemed to take him off the market quite early at last summer’s deadline. General manager Mike Hazen and assistant GM Amiel Sawdaye have both spoken in recent months about a desire to avoid a full rebuild while building the franchise around a few cornerstone players, and Marte no doubt qualifies. Both Hazen and Sawdaye have left the door open a bit, noting that they’re not in position to deem anyone completely untouchable coming off an NL-worst 52-110 season. Yet neither executive sounded enthused about the possibility, and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote last month that it’d take a “monster package” for Arizona to move Marte.

Should the Diamondbacks be willing to entertain a Marte trade? They’re in a division with three of the game’s most talented rosters, and it’s hard to see a path to contention in 2022. The D-Backs could look into another contract extension, but a new Marte deal would be far costlier than the one on which he’s currently playing.

One could make a cogent argument that Arizona should pursue some form of organizational reboot, and no one on the roster would bring back as strong a return in trade as Marte. Yet there’s no certainty any prospect they get back will become a player anywhere near Marte’s caliber, and he should still be in high demand this summer or next offseason if the club hasn’t seen much near-term progress.

(poll link for app users)

 

MLBTR Poll: How Should The Yankees Address Shortstop?

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Entering the offseason, there were few more obvious team/need pairings than the Yankees and shortstop. General manager Brian Cashman frankly stated in October the club “(has) to address” the position over the winter. Yet through the offseason’s first few months, the club hasn’t made a meaningful addition.

At the GM Meetings, Cashman said the Yankees had been in contact with the representatives for two free agent shortstops, later reported to be Carlos Correa and Corey Seager. There’s no indication talks with either player progressed, however, and Seager went on to sign with the Rangers. Correa won’t sign until after the lockout, but multiple reports have since indicated the Yankees would prefer a shorter-term option at the position. Highly-regarded prospects Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe aren’t far off MLB readiness, and the Yankees do have to weigh whether splurging on a shortstop could limit their ability to upgrade the rotation and/or hammer out an extension with Aaron Judge.

If that’s actually the case, that’d rule out Correa and probably Trevor Story, the other All-Star shortstop still remaining in free agency. There’s not a whole lot of interest behind that duo. Andrelton Simmons and José Iglesias would be affordable, but that’s a reflection of the seasons off which they’re each coming. Simmons hit .223/.283/.274 over 451 plate appearances with the Twins; Iglesias’ production at the plate was acceptable, but he had an uncharacteristically poor year with the glove.

New York could also look into trade possibilities. They’ve already been tied to Rangers shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who might be displaced by Texas’ pre-lockout spending spree. Other potential trade candidates at the position include Paul DeJong, Nick Ahmed and Adalberto Mondesi. The A’s would probably love to move Elvis Andrus, but that’s a challenging endeavor, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored last week.

The final possibility is to rely on the in-house options. As things currently stand, Gio Urshela would be the presumptive regular shortstop. Gleyber Torres got kicked over to second base late last season, and the Yankees probably wouldn’t want him bouncing back and forth between the two middle infield spots. But someone like non-roster invitee José Peraza could crack the roster in a reserve capacity behind Urshela. That wouldn’t be ideal from a defensive standpoint and certainly isn’t what the Yankees had in mind entering the offseason, but Urshela would likely offer more at the plate than any of the stopgap options mentioned and wouldn’t come at any additional financial or trade cost.

We’ll turn things over to the MLBTR readership. If you were in the front office’s shoes, how would you handle the shortstop situation in the Bronx?

(poll link for app users)

 

Free Agent Faceoff: Second Base Battle Royale

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For those teams looking to improve at second base, many free agent options have already gone. Marcus Semien went to the Rangers, Javier Baez to the Tigers, Eduardo Escobar to the Mets, Cesar Hernandez to the Nationals and Rougned Odor to the Orioles. Chris Taylor and Leury Garcia returned to their clubs from 2021, the Dodgers and White Sox, respectively. It seems some people in the industry believe Trevor Story should be moved to second base, but it’s unclear if Story himself agrees with that assessment. It’s also possible that another shortstop could be moved to second, such as Jose Iglesias, though he has only 21 games of second base experience in his career thus far and hasn’t matched Story’s offensive production. For teams looking to upgrade at the keystone, who’s still available to be signed after the lockout?

Josh Harrison, 34, had an awful campaign in 2019 but has been solid over the past two seasons. Over 2020 and 2021, he got into 171 games and hit .279/.343/.402. That amounts to a wRC+ of 104 and 1.8 fWAR. Of those 171 games, he played second base in 114 of them, as well as lesser time at third and shortstop, with brief stints at all three outfield spots and even one inning at first base. Statcast doesn’t like his defensive work at those tertiary positions, but he was worth 8 OAA as a second baseman in 2021.

Jed Lowrie, 38 in April, only played nine games over 2019 and 2020 due to injuries. 2021 was a solid bounceback, however, as he played 139 games, hitting .245/.318/.398, for a wRC+ of 100, exactly league average. However, almost half of those games saw Lowrie slotted in at DH or appear as a pinch hitter, as he only played second base in 71 of them, along with three innings at third.

Donovan Solano, 34, is coming off the best three years of his career. From 2019 to 2021, he played 236 games, hitting .308/.354/.435 for a wRC+ of 114. In most of those games, 172, he appeared at second base, while also seeing some limited action at third and short. Statcast pegged his defense at second base as close to average over those three seasons.

Jonathan Villar, 31 in May, has alternated hot and cold in recent years. In 2019, he hit 24 homers, stole 40 bases and slashed .274/.339/.453 for a wRC+ 107 and 3.9 fWAR. In the shortened 2020 campaign, he hit just two dingers, stole 16 bases and hit .232/.301/.292 for a wRC+ of 65 and -0.3 fWAR. He turned things around again in 2021, with 18 homers, 14 stolen bases and a line of .249/.322/.416, 105 wRC+ and 2.1 fWAR. He only played nine games at second, as the Mets largely used him at third and short. Statcast wasn’t enamored with his defense in 2021, pegging him at -3 OAA overall.

Matt Duffy, 31 in January, had a rough 2019 and couldn’t crack the big leagues in 2020. Signed by the Cubs to a minor league deal prior to the 2021 season, he was able to crack the Opening Day roster and stick with the club all season long, except for a two-month stint on the IL. He got into 97 games and hit .287/.357/.381, for a wRC+ of 102 and 1.5 fWAR. He played 56 games at third, 21 at second, five at shortstop, three in left field, two at first base and even logged one third of an inning on the mound. Statcast graded him as being -4 OAA at second base in that small sample.

Matt Carpenter, 36, had a tremendous run from 2012 to 2018, putting up a wRC+ of at least 117 for seven straight seasons. However, it’s been a straight slide downwards since then. He finished 2018 at 140 but dropped to 96, 85 and 70 over the subsequent three campaigns. His strikeout rate also gradually ticked upwards, from 23.3% in 2018 to 26.2%, 28.4% and 30.9% in the three following years. He played 34 games at second base this year and was considered around average by Statcast. There’s no questioning it’s been a rough few years, but if he could get anywhere near his previous peak, he could be an intriguing bounceback candidate.

Each of these players have warts, but none of them should command a huge financial commitment. Villar was the only one to crack MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents, being predicted to get a contract of $14MM over two years. But which one would you prefer? Have your say in the poll below.

(poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Where Will Clayton Kershaw Sign?

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Clayton Kershaw is among the most interesting free agents still available. The future Hall of Famer is no longer the best pitcher on the planet, but he’s still highly effective when healthy. He worked 121 2/3 innings over 22 starts this past season, pitching to a 3.55 ERA with a very strong 29.5% strikeout percentage and a tiny 4.3% walk rate. Among pitchers with 100+ frames, only five topped Kershaw’s 25.2 point gap between his strikeout and walk percentages.

Yet the 33-year-old’s status is complicated by a few matters. First and foremost is health. He missed two months with forearm/elbow soreness between July and September. The three-time Cy Young award winner returned to make four starts, but he exited his final regular season appearance with renewed forearm issues. That proved to be season-ending, and while he didn’t require Tommy John surgery, he did undergo a platelet-rich plasma injection.

Kershaw is expected to be ready for the start of Spring Training. Which uniform he’ll don remains up in the air, though. He’s been a career-long Dodger, and the Los Angeles front office has predictably spoken about a desire to bring him back. The Dodgers declined to make him a qualifying offer, a decision president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said last month was out of respect for his accomplishments with the franchise. There’s no doubt the team would welcome a return, but Friedman told reporters the pitcher wanted to take some time to ruminate on his decision with his family.

If he doesn’t return to the Dodgers, it’s widely expected he’d be donning a Rangers uniform. Kershaw’s a Dallas native who has ties to Texas manager Chris Woodward, who previously worked on the Dodgers staff. Woodward is already on record about the Rangers’ desire to bring him aboard this offseason.

Texas probably isn’t going to compete for a playoff spot in 2022, while the Dodgers look like one of the game’s top World Series contenders. Yet the Rangers would welcome both the high-end production Kershaw’s likely to provide if healthy and his veteran leadership for a generally young rotation in Arlington. If Kershaw and his family decide that a move to the Dallas area is desirable, the Rangers would no doubt be happy to add him.

There’d surely be other teams with interest if Kershaw casts a wider geographic net than Los Angeles and Texas. Assuming he’s indeed on track to be ready for the season, the eight-time All-Star would upgrade every team’s rotation. Kershaw himself hasn’t hinted at a decision one way or another, yet it’d register as a surprise to many around the industry if he signed with anyone other than the Dodgers or Rangers.

It’s also at least worth mentioning the possibility Kershaw decides not to play at all. Some may read into Friedman’s November statement that Kershaw “wants to take a little time with (his wife) Ellen and figure out what’s best for them” as a potential hint of retirement. In October, Kershaw had told reporters he hadn’t made any decision about his future (link via Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post). Turning 34 in March and still a well above-average pitcher, Kershaw still looks capable of pitching for multiple seasons beyond 2021, but retirement can’t be completely ruled out until he makes a definitive declaration about his desire to keep playing.

We’ll let the MLBTR readership weigh in with thoughts. Where is Kershaw likely to be in 2022?

(poll link for app users)

 

If Not The Braves, Where Could Freddie Freeman Sign?

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32-year-old first baseman Freddie Freeman, once of baseball’s best hitters, entered the lockout without a home.  After 12 years with the Braves and coming off a championship, the assumption is that Atlanta remains the favorite.

The last information we have on Freeman’s negotiations with the Braves dates back to mid-November.  On November 12th, Bob Nightengale of USA Today put it this way, reporting from the GM Meetings in Carlsbad:

“Free agent Freddie Freeman was on the mind of every team seeking a first baseman, with Freeman rejecting Atlanta’s five-year, $135 million offer, and seeking closer to a six-year, $200 million deal. Yet, you couldn’t find a soul who believes Freeman won’t be returning to Atlanta.”

Jon Heyman of MLB Network generally concurred in a report four days later, writing, “Last heard 6th year was still at issue in Freeman/Braves talks but situation is fluid and they’ve still got to be considered the favorite.”  A few weeks after that, Heyman suggested the Dodgers, Yankees, and Blue Jays are “trying to pry” Freeman away from the Braves, even though those clubs find it unlikely.

Will the Braves or Freeman crack on the sixth year issue once the lockout ends?  Would Freeman take a lower AAV than the expected $30MM+ to convince the Braves to commit to a sixth year, perhaps at something like six years and $160MM?  Whatever needs to happen to get it done, the impending lockout did not create enough pressure to result in an agreement.  You’d have to think Freeman’s chances of leaving the Braves are around their highest point, whatever those chances are.  The Braves have let it get to a point where Freeman has no team, and other teams likely made offers.

Let’s assume something like MLBTR’s six-year, $180MM projection would be needed to lure Freeman away from the Braves.  Signing Freeman would also likely require draft pick forfeiture.  If not the Braves, which teams could reasonably do that contract?  Let’s start by assessing Heyman’s trio.

  • Dodgers: The Dodgers doing a six-year contract for another team’s 32-year-old free agent?  Andrew Friedman has been in charge for seven years now, and he’s given out four-plus years to another team’s free agent two times: four years to Brandon McCarthy in 2014, and four years to AJ Pollock in 2019.  Under Friedman, the club did go to four years to retain Justin Turner and Chris Taylor and five to keep Kenley Jansen in free agency.  They also notably did a 12-year extension with Mookie Betts before he played a regular season game with the team.  But six years to Freeman along with the forfeiture of the Dodgers’ second and fifth round draft picks?  I just don’t see it.  Signing Freeman would also require Max Muncy to spend more time at second or third base, but the addition of an NL DH could alleviate a potential logjam.
  • Yankees: The Yankees basically did nothing to improve the team prior to the lockout, so there’s the idea they could add Freeman’s sweet-swinging lefty bat in lieu of their more pressing need at shortstop.  Even if Freeman costs $180MM, that’s still likely over $100MM less than Carlos Correa.  The team could and would likely have to exceed a new 2022 competitive balance tax threshold to sign Freeman, but they may be willing to do so after staying below the line in 2021.  Adding Freeman would do nothing to solve the shortstop issue, and it would also crowd out Giancarlo Stanton, DJ LeMahieu, Luke Voit, and Gleyber Torres to a degree.  One of them could be traded to accommodate Freeman.  Still, Freeman is an imperfect fit for a team that is also in need of rotation help.
  • Blue Jays: Speaking of imperfect Freeman fits, the Blue Jays currently have Vladimir Guerrero Jr. entrenched at first base.  Assuming Freeman doesn’t intend to mostly shelve his first baseman’s glove, Vlad Jr. would have to spend most of his time at designated hitter – fresh off a second-place MVP finish and Silver Slugger award.  A shift back to third base for Guerrero would seem even more risky.  It’s also worth noting that signing Freeman would permanently plug up Toronto’s DH spot, where George Springer spent nearly half his games in 2021.  I think the Blue Jays could swing the financial commitment to Freeman, and I get the idea of replacing Marcus Semien’s bat, but this is not a great roster fit.

So we’ve looked at the three teams Heyman linked to Freeman, and none seem like a perfect fit.  Let’s look at all the other even slightly plausible options.

    • White Sox: They’ve got Jose Abreu at first base, but only through 2022.  They’ve also got flexibility in the DH spot, so the roster fit could work.  Financially, though, I’d be quite surprised to see the White Sox make this level of commitment given their current payroll situation.
    • Tigers: There’s a sense that the Tigers have finished their major spending after the Javier Baez and Eduardo Rodriguez signings.  But man, would Freeman be a game-changer in Detroit.  They’ve got Jonathan Schoop at first base and Miguel Cabrera at DH, neither of whom should block a player like Freeman.  Freeman could get in the way of top prospect Spencer Torkelson, who played more first base than third this year in the minors.  Plus, the club has Jeimer Candelario at third base.  I don’t think the Tigers will pursue Freeman, but if they had the desire to spend the money I think the roster could be figured out.
    • Red Sox: The Red Sox have Bobby Dalbec at first base, who came on very strong in the season’s final two months.  They’ve got J.D. Martinez at DH, but only for one more year.  They also have first base prospect Triston Casas.  Roster-wise, the Red Sox have good options at first for the long-term, though no established Major Leaguers.  They also have a GM who’s yet to give a free agent more than $14MM.  As with Andrew Friedman, this just doesn’t seem like Chaim Bloom’s way of doing things.
    • Astros: The Astros have Yuli Gurriel at first base, but only for one more year.  They’ve got Yordan Alvarez as the regular DH.  Signing Freeman would probably necessitate a Gurriel trade.  The Astros do have the payroll flexibility to accommodate Freeman, but they seem like yet another big market club that would shy away from signing a corner infielder through age 37 – especially since they don’t seem to want to pay Carlos Correa past age 31.
    • Angels:  The Angels are committed to Shohei Ohtani as DH for two more years, and they’d surely like to lock up the AL MVP beyond that.  And Jared Walsh took over first base quite capably for the Halos this year.  Like the Yankees, shortstop and the rotation are more pressing needs.  It’s difficult to see Freeman landing here.
    • Mariners: The Mariners have Ty France at first base, plus Evan White under contract through 2025.  They don’t have a set DH, but Kyle Lewis and Luis Torrens are projected to spend time there in 2022.  France could potentially play some second or third base, if the Mariners decided to accommodate Freeman.  The Mariners spent big on Robbie Ray and traded for Adam Frazier, but they’re known to be in the hunt for a significant position player addition.  I consider Freeman within the realm of possibility, though the more versatile Kris Bryant would fit better if the price tag is similar.
    • Rangers: The Rangers have Nathaniel Lowe at first base, and no set DH.  Lowe had a nice year for a player who hits the ball on the ground 55% of the time, but bumping him to DH for Freeman wouldn’t be problematic.  It’d be staggering for the Rangers to add Freeman after already committing $561.2MM to four free agents, though they could afford it.  Pitching has to be a higher priority for this team, but who’s to say they can’t do both?
    • Cubs: The Cubs have Frank Schwindel penciled in at first base after a strong couple of months, and no NL team has an incumbent DH.  Schwindel is 29 and there was nothing special about his exit velocity or launch angle even in his successful stint.  Pushing Schwindel to DH for Freeman wouldn’t be an issue, and the team did make a statement with the Marcus Stroman signing.  But that was a surprisingly short three-year deal, and with Freeman we’re talking about double that term to a player who is 19 months older.  Freeman just doesn’t fit with the long-term payroll flexibility GM Jed Hoyer enjoys.
    • Cardinals: The team has Paul Goldschmidt under contract for three more years, but again, an NL DH would open things up.  Signing Freeman would mean stretching payroll to a franchise record, and I doubt the team considers first base/DH a position of need.
    • Marlins: The Marlins have Jesus Aguilar under control for next year, but he’s not much of an impediment for a player like Freeman.  Here, it’s all about money.  A team with a $65MM payroll can afford Freeman, but Avisail Garcia’s $53MM deal seemed like the Marlins’ big free agency strike.  Freeman would require more than triple that commitment.
    • Mets: The Mets have to be listed here in the name of, “How crazy can Steve Cohen get?”  Crazy enough to add Freeman to the $254.5MM the club already committed to free agents this winter, while also forfeiting the 14th pick in next year’s draft?  Even with a more significant need in the rotation?  I don’t expect Cohen to steal Freeman away from the Braves, but it’d be the ultimate power move.
    • Phillies: The Phillies have Rhys Hoskins for two more years.  He’s been an excellent hitter, though he will be coming off lower abdomen surgery.  The Phillies’ needs at shortstop, third base, left field, and center field are much more stark than at first base/DH.  They also have a fairly bloated payroll situation.  I suppose Dave Dombrowski could simplify and try to sign Freeman in the name of adding the top bat, but it’d be a surprising choice.
    • Nationals: One year of Josh Bell wouldn’t block Freeman.  And should the Nats really take any kind of step back with only three more years of control of Juan Soto?  But it just doesn’t sound like the Nationals are looking to take on a commitment of this nature this winter.
    • Rockies: They’ve got C.J. Cron at first base, but could easily move him to DH for Freeman.  The Rockies have relatively modest commitments, which drop quite a bit as of 2024.  As a team with real and surprising interest in Kris Bryant, we should consider a possible pursuit of Freeman as well.
    • Padres: Freeman is an excellent roster fit for the Padres, who have an underperforming Eric Hosmer locked in through 2025.  The team’s payroll is pushing $200MM already, so GM A.J. Preller would need to get creative and move contracts to fit Freeman in.  It’s a possibility that can’t be ruled out.
    • Giants: The Giants haven’t really demonstrated their financial might yet, committing $99.4MM to four free agents without topping Anthony DeSclafani’s $36MM.  DH is the ideal spot for the injury-prone Brandon Belt.  Farhan Zaidi does seem to come from the increasingly common GM school of thought that eschews long-term free agent commitments, even in big markets.  He’d have to buck that trend to sign Freeman, but otherwise it’s reasonable enough.
    • Brewers: The Brewers are a contending team with Rowdy Tellez penciled in at first base, so they at least warrant a mention.  It’s just hard to see them outbidding the field to land Freeman in that $180MM range.  I could write something very similar for the Guardians.

You’ve seen my opinions; now it’s your turn (direct poll link for app users here).

MLB Lockout Reader Survey

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Today marks Day 26 of the MLB lockout, as we trudge toward the end of the quietest December this website has ever seen.  The new year begins Saturday, and there’s an expectation MLB and the players’ union will resume negotiating core economic issues sometime in January.

The collective bargaining agreement expired on December 1st and MLB instituted a lockout, and the time since has been a waste: no notable movement on a new CBA, and of course a freeze on free agent signings and trades.  The only dates that seem likely to motivate either side are related to Spring Training.  Normally we’d see pitchers and catchers reporting to Spring Training the week of February 14.  And the Spring Training game schedule has been in place for months, with games set to kick off February 26.  So February 26 is the next real pressure point, as canceling Spring Training games will result in tangible revenue loss for teams.  It’s entirely possible we won’t see any real CBA movement until February.

Seeing as how we’re mired in the first work stoppage of MLBTR’s 16-year history, I’d like to see where our readers stand on several key issues.  Check out our eight-question survey below.  You can click here for a direct link to it, and click here to view the results.

Create your own user feedback survey

Poll: Carlos Correa’s Contract

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There’s been plenty of speculation as to Carlos Correa’s next destination, and even as the lockout trudges on, some reporting on the interest he’s received to date. The Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs, Braves and incumbent Astros were all reported to have contacted Correa prior to the lockout, and in recent weeks, ESPN’s Buster Olney reported that the Tigers had put forth a ten-year offer worth $275MM — presumably prior to signing Javier Baez to his six-year, $140MM contract. Bruce Levine of 670 The Score in Chicago wrote yesterday that while there’s mutual interest with the Cubs, the team is loath to commit the length of contract Correa is seeking.

The length of contract Correa is set upon will obviously play a large role in where he ultimately signs. If he’s set on a deal of ten (or more) years in length, the Cubs and Astros seem to be out of the question. If he eventually is willing to take a slightly shorter deal, presumably with a massive annual value, it could open the door a bit further. Some suitors may yet may ramp up their interest or pivot to Correa if they miss out on larger target (e.g. Braves and Freddie Freeman) or if the luxury tax threshold rises substantially in the forthcoming collective bargaining agreement.

Given that he’s hitting the market in advance of his age-27 season, it’s not a surprise to see Correa eyeing deals of ten-plus years in length. And, now that Corey Seager has inked a 10-year deal for $325MM — joining Francisco Lindor and Fernando Tatis Jr. as shortstops with contracts of 10 or more years — Correa is surely hopeful of adding his own name to that prestigious group (if not besting all three in terms of total guarantee).

If the Yankees indeed plan to sit out the market for top shortstops, as has been reported, that’s a sizable blow to Correa’s market. Add that the Dodgers have an excellent in-house option already in Trea Turner and may not want to add a second $300MM contract to the books alongside Mookie Betts, and Correa may have to drum up some interest from teams that haven’t been publicly linked to him just yet.

The Phillies have a need at shortstop but appear more focused on center field and the bullpen. The Mets don’t seem like a fit in terms of roster composition, but owner Steve Cohen has shown a willingness to spend at a nearly unparalleled level. The Blue Jays reportedly pursued Seager before he signed in Texas; would they consider a legitimate pursuit of Correa in the wake of Marcus Semien’s departure? Could the Tigers follow the Rangers’ lead and shock baseball with a double-dip in the shortstop market? The Mariners haven’t been characterized as a suitor just yet, but they have the payroll space and are seeking an impact bat.

As the already slow news cycle winds down during the holiday season, let’s try to make our best guess both as to where Correa will sign and for how much in total dollars…

How large will Correa’s contract be? (poll link for Trade Rumors iOS/Android app users)

Where will Correa sign? (poll link for Trade Rumors iOS/Android app users)

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