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MLBTR Poll: Who Will Win The NL Central?

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The National League Central looks as if it will be the most wide-open division in Major League Baseball when the regular season opens in a few weeks. Minus the Pirates, who figure to contend for the worst record in the league this year, it appears anyone could take the Central. The Cubs, Cardinals, Reds and Brewers were all playoff teams in 2020, and only five games separated the division winner (Chicago) from the fourth-place finisher (Milwaukee).  This past offseason would have been an opportune time for any of the Central’s teams to establish itself as the clear front-runner, but it doesn’t appear anyone separated itself from the pack.

The Cardinals made the biggest move in the division over the winter when they acquired third baseman Nolan Arenado from the Rockies. But other than that and re-signing right-hander Adam Wainwright and catcher Yadier Molina, they were pretty quiet.

The Cubs worsened their rotation when they traded away 2020 NL Cy Young-contending starter Yu Darvish to the Padres in a deal that netted them fellow righty Zach Davies. They also reunited with righty Jake Arrieta, who once won a Cy Young in their uniform but has since devolved into a back-end starter, and swapped out one flawed corner outfielder (Kyle Schwarber) for another (Joc Pederson).

The Reds said goodbye to last year’s Cy Young winner, Trevor Bauer, who signed with the Dodgers. They also cut ties with two accomplished relievers – Raisel Iglesias and Archie Bradley – though their bullpen did gain Sean Doolittle, Noe Ramirez and Cam Bedrosian. On the position player side, it doesn’t appear they adequately addressed shortstop, where they ranked 27th in the majors with 0.1 fWAR last year. Barring last-minute changes, they’re going to rely on some mix of Kyle Farmer, Jose Garcia and Dee-Strange Gordon, which isn’t particularly reassuring.

The Brewers, meanwhile, have reeled in two high-profile free agents in recent weeks, having signed former Cards second baseman Kolten Wong and ex-Red Sox outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr. At the very least, they should give the Brewers a pair of average regulars, largely because of the outstanding defense they typically provide. The Brewers are also getting back Lorenzo Cain, who sat out most of last season, and he’ll join Bradley and former MVP Christian Yelich in what should be a strong outfield.

Aside from Pittsburgh, FanGraphs’ preseason odds give every team in the division a realistic chance at coming out on top. The Cardinals, Brewers, Cubs and Reds are all projected to win between 78 and 81 games. Which of those four do you think is the favorite?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Grading The JBJ Signing

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One of the final high-ranked free agents came off the board Thursday when longtime Red Sox center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. inked a two-year, $24MM contract with the Brewers. Bradley will make $13MM this year, and then he’ll have to decide whether to exercise an $11MM player option for 2022 next winter.

Few would have expected the Brewers to sign Bradley, but now that he’s part of the team, the 30-year-old should further strengthen their outfield. He won’t be their No. 1 center fielder – that job still belongs to Lorenzo Cain, who’s back after opting out of the majority of last season – but will join left fielder Christian Yelich to form a rather promising starting trio. The Brewers also have Avisail Garcia on hand as a fourth outfielder.

In Bradley, the Brewers are getting someone who had one of his most productive offensive years during his last year in Boston (120 wRC+ in 217 plate appearances). However, Bradley has typically been closer to OK than great at the plate, having slashed .239/.321/.412 (93 wRC+) with 98 home runs since he entered the majors in 2013. But Bradley ups his value with well-regarded base running and outstanding work in the field, where he has accumulated 53 Defensive Runs Saved and notched a 36.5 Ultimate Zone Rating across over 7,400 innings in the outfield.

Based on his history, the Brewers seem to have landed at least an average regular in Bradley, and if he’s at peak form, he could certainly amount to much more than that in their uniform. As such, it seems like a reasonable gamble – one that could improve Milwaukee’s chances of winning a wide-open National League Central in 2021. What do you think of the move?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Expectations For 2021 Mets

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Although the Mets missed the playoffs for the fourth straight year in 2020, they look as if they’ll head into the upcoming regular season as a popular pick to contend. New owner Steve Cohen’s arrival early in the winter brought a great deal of optimism for Mets fans, who suffered for years under the yoke of the Wilpons. Cohen has largely lived up to the hype since taking over, as he oversaw an active offseason in which the Mets’ roster looks to have taken steps forward.

The Mets did lose second baseman Robinson Cano for the year because of a suspension for performance-enhancing drugs, and they didn’t reel in any of Trevor Bauer, George Springer or J.T. Realmuto in free agency, but they still ponied up for several notable names in recent months.

Shortstop Francisco Lindor, an elite player for a large portion of his career, and quality right-hander Carlos Carrasco came over in a major trade with Cleveland. James McCann, who ranked second behind Realmuto among free-agent catchers, signed a four-year, $40MM deal to assume the reins as the Mets’ starting backstop. Righty Marcus Stroman, who opted out of last season thanks to COVID-19, stuck around when he accepted the Mets’ $18.9MM qualifying offer, and they filled out their season-opening rotation last month with the signing of fellow RHP Taijuan Walker to a three-year, $23MM guarantee late. Reliever Trevor May, lefty Joey Lucchesi, infielder Jonathan Villar, and outfielders Kevin Pillar and Albert Almora Jr. were also among those who became Mets during the offseason.

Despite the loss of Cano, the Mets look as if they’ll have a high-end offense in 2021 with Lindor and McCann complementing holdovers Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, Pete Alonso, Dominic Smith, Jeff McNeil and J.D. Davis. The starting staff also looks good with Carrasco, Stroman and Walker joining ace Jacob deGrom and David Peterson (and don’t forget that Noah Syndergaard will return from his Tommy John recovery during the summer). The bullpen appears to be more of a question mark, especially with Seth Lugo having undergone elbow surgery last month, though the signings of May and lefty Aaron Loup should help New York’s cause.

There still could be room for further Mets acquisitions in the coming weeks, but for the most part, their roster looks set going into the new season. The team won 26 of 60 regular-season games and wound up last in the National League East in 2020, but thanks in part to its offseason, PECOTA projects a 93-win effort in 2021 and a first-place finish in a tough division that also features the Braves, Nationals, Phillies and Marlins. Are you buying the Mets as a playoff-caliber team?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: How Good Are The Padres?

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The Padres and their fans endured a long period of suffering, but the club finally returned to relevance in 2020. With 37 wins in 60 games, the Padres posted the sport’s third-best record, broke a 13-year playoff drought and advanced to the NLDS, where they lost to the division-rival Dodgers. While the Dodgers, who went on to win the World Series, are the favorites to reign over the NL again in 2021, the Padres look as if they’ll put up an even bigger fight this year.

Not content to continue playing second fiddle to Los Angeles, San Diego and general manager A.J. Preller have been extremely aggressive in trying to improve their roster since the Dodgers crushed their championship hopes last fall. Dating back to then, the Padres have used trades and free agency to add a slew of notable names – Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Joe Musgrove, Ha-Seong Kim, Mark Melancon, Victor Caratini and Keone Kela lead the way.

Darvish and Dinelson Lamet give the Padres two starters who were in NL Cy Young contention last season; meanwhile Snell’s a former AL Cy Young winner, Musgrove has shown that he’s a legitimate mid-rotation type and Chris Paddack, although he struggled last year, looked like a high-end starter just two years ago. If anything goes haywire with that group, the Padres could get help from prospects such as MacKenzie Gore (MLB.com’s sixth-ranked farmhand) and Adrian Morejon.

Offensively, Kim and Caratini should help a unit that finished third in the majors in runs last year, when the all-world left side of the infield of third baseman Manny Machado and shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. led the charge. They’re still around, as are infielder Jake Cronenworth, first baseman Eric Hosmer, outfielders Trent Grisham and Wil Myers – who all enjoyed terrific years.

As is the case with their starting staff and offense, the Padres’ bullpen looks as if it has the potential to be a formidable group in 2021. However, they’ll need more from holdovers such as Emilio Pagan, Craig Stammen and Tim Hill. And the Padres may miss Trevor Rosenthal, a late-season acquisition who left for the Athletics in free agency, but the Melancon and Kela additions ought to help. They’ll join holdovers Drew Pomeranz and Pierce Johnson among the club’s preferred late-game choices.

All said, there isn’t much (anything?) to dislike about the Padres’ roster. The biggest roadblock may be that they’re still stuck in a division with the Dodgers, but PECOTA nonetheless projects a 95-win season for the Padres in 2021. How do you think they’ll fare?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Forecasting The Yankees Rotation

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Jameson Taillon is aiming for 120 to 150 innings in his comeback from Tommy John surgery, writes Ken Davidoff of the New York Post. Taillon has just 37 1/3 innings to his name over the past two seasons, and since this will be his second time coming back from TJ, there’s reason to temper expectations regarding his workload. Davidoff looks at PECOTA, Steamer, and ZiPS to get an idea for what the projection systems think Taillon can handle in 2021 – though the creators of the systems admit this is an area that requires guesswork. Still, it’s instructive to know that the three systems project 103 innings, 133 innings, and 106 1/3 innings – in line with Taillon’s thinking.

How those innings manifest might be the question for the Yankees. The mean of the three projections is 114-ish innings, which would be just under four innings per start over a full 30-game workload. That’s not likely to be the shape of Taillon’s 2021 production. We know that depth will be key in 2021 across the league, but thinking in this way about Taillon all but erases the possibility of a five-man rotation surviving the season.

While that’s an absolute best-case, rarely-achieved feat in the first place, it’s worth keeping in mind before getting frustrated when Deivi García, for example, doesn’t make an opening day roster, speculatively speaking. And while Clarke Schmidt’s injury doesn’t appear to be serious, it serves as a generous reminder that the injury bug can bite at any time.

As if Taillon didn’t cloud the Yankees’ projections enough on his own, the rest of the group doesn’t bring much certainty either – beyond Gerrit Cole, of course. The projection systems collectively tag presumptive No. 2 starter Corey Kluber with an expectation for about 137 innings in 2021, a forecast largely born from the fact that the soon-to-be 35-year-old managed just one inning in 2020 and 35 2/3 innings the year before. Still, Kluber was a workhorse before 2019, with five straight 200+ inning seasons with the Indians.

Jordan Montgomery slots into the No. 4 spot, and he logged just 51 2/3 innings over the past two seasons after undergoing Tommy John surgery himself. Somewhat remarkably, the starter with the most innings after Cole the past two seasons is the guy who missed all of 2020 under the league’s domestic violence policy: Domingo Germán. Germán made 24 starts and amassed 143 innings with a 4.03 ERA/4.72 FIP, 38.1 percent groundball rate, 25.8 percent strikeout rate, and 6.6 percent walk rate in 2019. Those are above-average walk and strikeout numbers. Germán faces his own uphill climb, of course. Given comments made by his Yankee teammates this offseason, there’s more than a little doubt about how well he’ll be able to re-acclimate to the spotlight that comes with donning Yankee pinstripes.

García will obviously be a candidate to join the rotation, as could other 40-man roster arms like Schmidt, Michael King, Nick Nelson, Alexander Vizcaino, Luis Medina, and Luis Gil. Veterans Jhoulys Chacin and Asher Wojciechowski are also in camp as non-roster invitees. Jonathan Loaisiga, Albert Abreu and Luis Cessa are expected to pitch out the bullpen, but they’ve spent time starting games in the past. The Yankees also hope to receive a mid-season boost when Luis Severino returns from Tommy John. Severino threw just 12 innings the past two seasons, but he was an ace in the two years before that, averaging a 3.18 ERA/3.01 FIP, 5.5 fWAR in 192 innings per season in 2017 and 2018.

Of course, no matter the starting five, most teams are going to call upon more than just their opening day rotation to toe the rubber. The Yankees themselves used nine different starting pitchers in 2020 over just 60 games. They used 12 in 2019, 12 in 2018, and 11 in 2017. Those units finished eighth, fifth and fourth in the American League by measure of FIP, ninth, third and third by fWAR. Yankee starters ranked third in the AL by both FIP (4.19 FIP) and fWAR (5.3 fWAR) last season.

Volume isn’t everything, but for pitchers, inning totals do often point to success, or at the very least, health. Given the uncertainty of the Yankees new rotation, what are your expectations? Who of the starters after Cole stands the best chance of surviving the season?

(Poll link for app users)

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Shortstop Extension Candidates

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Spring training is often when contract extensions come together, and shortstop is one of the positions that’s certainly worth watching in that regard during the next several weeks. The Mets’ Francisco Lindor, the Dodgers’ Corey Seager, the Rockies’ Trevor Story, the Astros’ Carlos Correa and the Cubs’ Javier Baez are on track to lead a tremendous free-agent class at short next offseason, though it’s conceivable any of them could instead opt for long-term security with a new deal this spring.

It stands to reason the Mets will make a serious effort to lock up Lindor, whom they acquired from Cleveland in a winter blockbuster. There is indeed “mutual interest” in a new deal, but it could cost upward of $300MM in guarantees to lock up the 27-year-old four-time All-Star. Fortunately for the Mets, thanks to the presence of Steve Cohen – the wealthiest owner in the sport – they seem to have a realistic chance of keeping Lindor in the fold beyond this season.

Seager, 27 in April, rounded back into superstar form in 2020 during the regular season and continued to thrive in the playoffs, in which he earned NLCS and World Series MVP honors for the championship-winning Dodgers. Unlike Lindor, though, it’s not clear whether he’s open to an extension. Asked Thursday whether he and the Dodgers have held talks, Seager told reporters (including Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times), “I don’t really want to talk about it, to be honest.” Of course, as the highest-payroll team in the game, the Dodgers should be able to extend Seager if the two sides are motivated to get something done.

There doesn’t appear to be as much hope regarding Story, as they haven’t discussed a new pact with him; plus, as apparent non-contenders that recently traded away former face of the franchise Nolan Arenado (Story’s ex-partner on the left side of the infield), it may make more sense for the club to trade Story prior to the summer deadline.

Correa and Baez were hardly at top form in 2020, but they’re still decorated players in their mid- to late-20s who haven’t made it any secret they’re willing to stay where they are. Both Correa and the Astros are hopeful they’ll reach a deal; meanwhile, Baez made it known yet again Friday that he would like to remain a Cub.

What do you think? Of this group of shortstops, which player do you believe is most likely to sign an extension?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Grading The Fernando Tatis Jr. Extension

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The Padres and 22-year-old shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. officially came to terms on a whopper of an extension earlier this week. Tatis, already a franchise cornerstone at such a young age, landed a 14-year contract worth $340MM. His deal also includes full no-trade rights, so if the Padres try to bail any point, Tatis will be able to prevent it from happening if he chooses.

Tatis earned his deal after an amazing year-plus run as a member of the Padres, with whom he debuted in 2019. They acquired him from the White Sox in June 2016 in a deal centering on right-hander James Shields, and though the swap now looks like one of the most lopsided moves in recent memory, it’s worth noting Tatis was not a can’t-miss prospect then. He developed into a stud in the Padres’ system, though, and has continued to live up to the hype in the majors.

Tatis has only played 143 games so far, but he has already racked up 6.5 fWAR and batted .301/.374/.582 with 39 home runs and 27 stolen bases in 629 plate appearances. That’s superstar production at any spot, but it’s particularly valuable at shortstop, where Tatis will continue to partner with third baseman Manny Machado to form an elite left side of the infield in San Diego for the foreseeable future.

Tatis, who wasn’t even eligible for arbitration at the time of his extension, now owns the record for a pre-arb pact. He wasn’t due to reach arbitration until the end of 2022 or free agency until after 2024, so the Padres are clearly betting that Tatis will continue to thrive over the long haul.

The Padres and Tatis are tied together until well into the 2030s. How do you like the extension for the two sides?

(Poll links for app users: 1, 2)

MLBTR Poll: Top-5 Free Agent Contracts

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With there’s always quite a lot of room to quibble over free agent rankings, there was really no debate regarding the top handful of talent in this year’s class. (At least, that is, once Marcus Stroman elected to accept the qualifying offer.) After Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, George Springer, Marcell Ozuna, and DJ LeMahieu — in whatever order; that’s how we had it — the drop-off to the rest of the board was rather pronounced.

As it turned out, those players signed contracts that hewed fairly closely to MLBTR’s predicted ranges. But the market, as always, had a few surprises for our in-house brain trust. In particular, Springer and LeMahieu came away with a fair bit more money than we had anticipated.

Trevor Bauer to Dodgers for three years, $102MM (with two opt-outs): If you’re of the opinion that Bauer is an ace-level hurler, then this deal represents a steal. The Dodgers are paying a premium rate, sure, but without any of the long-term entanglements. Then again, it’s only fair to note that Bauer has completed just one full season with a sub-4.00 ERA.

J.T. Realmuto to Phillies for five years, $115.5MM: This is a lot of coin for a free-agent catcher, but Realmuto is arguably the game’s best all-around backstop and the Phils got an up-close look at him before committing. If you value the hard-to-quantify contributions of a top-shelf catcher, this could be viewed as a bargain. On the other hand, Realmuto will turn thirty before the deal begins and the rigors of the position represent an ever-present concern.

George Springer to Blue Jays for six years, $150MM: Speaking of age, that’s the one real demerit in the situation of Springer, who’ll turn 32 at the tail end of the 2021 campaign. He’s a well-rounded masher who adds value with a versatile glove. If he can turn in a few more premium seasons and then settle in as a high-quality regular at the tail end of his career, Springer could easily reward the Jays for this contract.

Marcell Ozuna to Braves for four years, $65MM: Ozuna is significantly younger than Springer and easily bettered him at the plate in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. But Ozuna’s stretches of bliss have surrounded other spans of merely above-average play, and his glove is not as renowned as his bat. While there’s obviously some cause to temper expectations, there’s a realistic scenario where the Atlanta organization achieves huge value in this deal.

DJ LeMahieu to Yankees for six years, $90MM: The idea of a 32-year-old LeMahieu signing a contract like this … well, it still feels a bit preposterous to hot stove watchers of a certain age. But you can threw out what you thought you knew about the guy with the Rockies. He has been on a tear ever since he donned pinstripes. Throw in a quality glove and gravitas, and you’ve got a great finishing piece for any team with championship ambitions. The sixth year feels like a stretch, but it’s important to remember that it was designed to tamp down the annual luxury tax hit for the Bronx Bombers.

So, which of these contracts do you believe was the shrewdest investment from the team perspective? (Response order randomized; poll link for app users.)

MLBTR Poll: Jackie Bradley’s Future

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After last night’s agreement between Justin Turner and the Dodgers, Jackie Bradley Jr. stands out as the top remaining free agent position player. The longtime Red Sox center fielder has earned a reputation as one of the game’s top defensive outfielders and is coming off a strong 2020 season at the plate.

It was reported earlier this month Bradley was seeking a long-term deal, potentially even targeting a five-year pact. That’s a rather lofty goal; entering the offseason, the MLBTR staff projected a two-year, $16MM contract for Bradley.

While a five-year deal would register as a major surprise, Bradley has drawn a decent share of reported interest this winter. The Mets, Giants, Red Sox, Astros, Cubs, Phillies and Blue Jays have all been tied to Bradley at various stages of the offseason. Toronto can safely be ruled out, having signed George Springer since engaging with Bradley very early on. The Phillies still have room for a center field upgrade, but it seems unlikely Philadelphia would be willing to make a run at Bradley after spending to re-sign J.T. Realmuto and Didi Gregorius. The Cubs, meanwhile, have since signed Joc Pederson and Jake Marisnick to join Ian Happ and Jason Heyward in the outfield.

That leaves the Mets, Giants, Astros and Red Sox as the likeliest landing spots on paper. We’ll turn things over to the MLBTR readership to predict Bradley’s destination and contract length.

(poll links for app users)

 

Who Will Be The Last Top-50 Free Agent To Sign?

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After a slow start, the 2020-21 free agent market finally sprung to life over the last few weeks.  The result is a lot of red ink (i.e. signing details) on MLBTR’s list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, with only ten of the players that original list remaining without a contract for the 2021 season or beyond.

With less than two weeks to go before Spring Training camps are scheduled to open, the question has gone from “when will anyone sign?” to “who is left to be signed?”  There are still plenty of prominent names remaining, including multiple former All-Stars, Gold Glovers, a Cy Young Award winner, and former World Series champions — including a very prominent member of the defending champion Dodgers.

Any of these players could sign at any time, of course, but it’s possible Yadier Molina could be back with the Cardinals very soon, given the reports of an agreement that could be made official now that the Caribbean Series is over.  Justin Turner may also be down to a choice between four teams, and Jackie Bradley Jr. still has interest from a reported half-dozen teams.

With Trevor Bauer now a Dodger, interest seems to be picking up for starting pitchers like Jake Odorizzi, James Paxton, and Taijuan Walker.  That could, in turn, spark some offers further down the ladder for veteran hurlers like Rick Porcello or Cole Hamels, as there hasn’t been much public buzz about either pitcher this winter.

On the bullpen front, Trevor Rosenthal has gotten interest from a few teams this winter, though several of his known suitors have since moved on to other late-game options.  However, the “no such thing as too much pitching” mantra would certainly seem to apply to relievers as well heading into a 2021 season that may see several starters on innings limits as they rebuild arm strength.  That would imply that the likes of Rosenthal and Mark Melancon could still be of interest to teams who already have a closer in place, in an effort to create a super-bullpen.

To add a couple more names to the mix, this poll also includes Brett Gardner and Brad Miller, who were honorable mentions on the original Top 50 list.  They were bumped up to the 50-player slate for MLBTR’s free agent prediction contest after Marcus Stroman and Kevin Gausman made early exits from the market by accepting qualifying offers.

Of these twelve, who is your pick as the last free agent standing?  (poll link for app users)

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