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Free Agent Faceoff: Kris Bryant Vs. Kyle Seager Vs. Eduardo Escobar

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If you scan MLBTR’s list of Top 50 Free Agents looking for a third baseman, you’ll quickly see Kris Bryant in the #4 slot, predicted to get a contract of $160MM over six years, an average annual value of $26.67MM. Then there’s a big drop-off to Kyle Seager at #31 and Eduardo Escobar at #35. Each is projected to get a two-year deal, with Seager getting a total of $24MM and Escobar $20MM.

Age is certainly a justified reason for Bryant to get a longer contract, as he’s about to turn 30 in January, whereas Seager just turned 34 and Escobar will turn 33 in January, his birthday being the day after Bryant’s, making him almost exactly three years older. However, looking at their recent track records, they may not be as far apart as one might think.

Bryant was a high profile prospect who burst onto the scene in 2015. In his first three seasons, he lived up to all of the hype, hitting .288/.388/.527 for a wRC+ of 144. Combined with solid defense, he was worth 20.7 fWAR over those three seasons, which included winning NL MVP in 2016 and a World Series ring to boot. He has slowed down since that time, however, primarily on the defensive side of things. His slash line from 2018 to 2021 is still great, coming in at .268/.363/.479, wRC+ of 124. But due to diminished defensive numbers, that adds up to 11.1 fWAR over those four seasons. Statcast’s Outs Above Average gave Bryant 5 and 4 at third base in 2016 and 2017, respectively. But since then, he’s been at 0 or below, including -4 at third base in 2021 and -10 overall.

Escobar’s trajectory has been almost the opposite, as he had a breakout year in 2018 and has had his strongest campaigns in recent years. Like Bryant, he had three solid seasons in the past four years, with the shortened 2020 season being his weakest. His overall line from 2018 to 2021 is .259/.318/.475, wRC+ of 105. His defense has been graded around league average in that time, allowing him to accumulate 9.5 fWAR in that span, just 1.6 shy of Bryant. In 2021, Bryant’s wRC+ of 123 was ahead of Escobar’s 107, but the defensive differences meant that his 3.6 fWAR on the campaign was just barely ahead of Escobar’s 3.0. Escobar’s nightmare season in 2020 resulted in -0.5 fWAR, but he was worth three wins or more in each of 2018, 2019 and 2021.

As for Seager, his best run of play was from 2012 to 2017. He has certainly slipped a bit since then but still managed to be a solid contributor thanks to his power and defense. Over the 2018-2021 timeframe, he hit .224/.298/.423, for a wRC+ of 99 and 8.5 fWAR, just a shade behind Escobar. Despite some ups and downs on offense, his glovework has been fairly steady. In the estimation of FanGraphs, he’s been worth at least 1.5 fWAR for ten straight seasons now, including the shortened 2020 campaign. In the six seasons of data for OAA, Seager has been worth at least three OAA in five of those seasons, with 2018 being the only outlier.

There’s no denying that Bryant deserves to be the top option out of these three. He’s the best hitter and offers upside that the others can’t match. The potential implementation of the NL DH would also make it easier for him to play the field less and perhaps maximize the value of his bat. His ability to play the outfield opens his market, although his defense hasn’t been graded well out on the grass. For teams looking for someone to play third base regularly, his declining defensive numbers would surely give them pause, especially when the asking price will probably be near $30MM per season. Escobar and Seager should cost less than half what Bryant will, both in terms of years and average annual value. There would be some logic to a team taking one of the cheaper options and using the cost savings to upgrade another area of their squad.

If you were sitting in the general manager’s chair, would you rather blow your budget and commit long-term to Bryant, and then get some cheap fliers to fill out the rest of your team? Or would you rather spread your money around more evenly, getting a cheap option like Escobar or Seager and then having more money for other additions? Have your say in the poll below.

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Will J.D. Martinez Opt Out?

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With all but two teams eliminated and the offseason proper fast approaching, focus across much of baseball has shifted to 2022, particularly given an unusually strong free agent class and an uncertain (and volatile) labor situation. As previously noted by MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk, this means the resurfacing of what’s become an annual question: will J.D. Martinez exercise the opt-out clause in his contract with the Red Sox?

This will be Martinez’s third and final opportunity to opt out of the front-loaded five-year/$110MM deal he signed with Boston following the 2017 season. That call was probably never on the table last year, thanks to a less-than-stellar showing (.680 OPS, more than 200 points below his career average) in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. It was a live possibility after 2019, though, when he put together a .304/.383/.557 line on the heels of a monster .330/.402/.629 mark in 2018. He has one year and $19.375MM left on his deal and is essentially a lock to receive a qualifying offer (set for $18.4MM) should he choose to test the market.

Following a bounceback 2021 (.286/.349/.518 in 634 plate appearances) that saw Martinez return to roughly his career averages, the opt-out is again a real option, though it does not come without potential downside. Martinez told WEEI’s Rob Bradford in late September that he’s “right in the middle” on the decision. While it’s entirely possible that his public statements are mere posturing, there are good reasons for Martinez to waffle on a decision that would require him to leave significant guaranteed money on the table without a clear picture of what the market or labor situation are likely to look like. The rumor mill is split on the issue, with Ken Rosenthal suggesting (on the Athletic Baseball Show) that he expects Martinez to exercise the clause while Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe is less convinced, particularly given the uncertain state of the universal DH.

On one hand, the 34-year-old Martinez has an enviable track-record (his .881 career OPS ranks 10th among active players) and proved in 2021 that his bat still has enough pop to make any lineup stronger. Indeed, Martinez’s would-be walk year showed few significant signs of decline; he maintained a K% and BB% (23.7% and 8.7%) roughly in line with both his career marks and MLB averages and a hard-hit rate (defined as the percentage of balls in play with an exit velocity of 95 mph or higher) of 49.4% that falls only just below his career mark of 50.8% and well above the MLB average of 38.7%. He also stayed mostly healthy, playing in 148 regular-season and nine postseason games for the Red Sox, though a late-season ankle sprain did keep him out of Boston’s AL Wild Card matchup with the Yankees.

On the other, Martinez’s defensive limitations don’t necessarily limit him to DH-only status but do make it unlikely any team would bank on playing him in the outfield on more than an occasional basis. While he was solid in limited defensive action in 2021 (2 defensive runs saved in 36 games), his career numbers tell a different story (-38 DRS, though 35 of these came in right field), and he hasn’t seen action in the outfield more than 60 times in a season since a poor showing (-18 DRS) across 118 games in right for Detroit in 2016. The probable introduction of the DH to the National League in the new CBA likely expands his market but does little to extend his on-field value.

With significant but mostly one-dimensional production, Martinez’s decision isn’t the easiest. Arguably a top-20 free agent in a strong class, Martinez is likely to receive some multi-year offers, but it’s unlikely many GMs will be eager to give a player with limited defensive value and nearing the back half of his 30s anything remotely approaching the deal he signed with the Red Sox — particularly as it will also cost them a draft pick. Another front-loaded deal is a real possibility, but teams will likely ask Martinez to take a cut in AAV for any significant length.

Accordingly, the question likely comes down to which Martinez values more: his short-term salary or a longer-term guarantee. Will Martinez bet on himself to put up another strong year and hit the market next offseason in a similar situation, or will he try to cash in on his strong 2021 and seek a longer deal?

 

(Link to poll for Trade Rumors app users)

Poll: Astros/Braves, Who Wins The World Series?

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The Fall Classic is set to begin on Tuesday, with the Astros and Braves meeting in Game 1 of the World Series.  This is the first time these two clubs have met in the World Series, though they were pretty frequent postseason opponents back when the Astros were in the National League.  Between 1997 and 2005, Atlanta and Houston met five times in NLDS play, with the Braves coming out on top in three of those matchups.

The Braves are heading to the World Series for the tenth time in their history, and in search of their fourth championship.  While nothing will ever top the 1914 Miracle Braves as the franchise’s signature comeback story, the 2021 team isn’t that far off, considering how this year’s Braves were only 52-55 heading into action on August 3.  By this point, Atlanta had already lost Ronald Acuna Jr. and Mike Soroka to season-ending injuries, and Marcell Ozuna was away from the team (and soon to be put on administrative leave by the league) due to domestic violence charges.

However, the Braves were far from done.  An aggressive trade strategy saw outfielders Joc Pederson, Adam Duvall, Jorge Soler, and future NLCS MVP Eddie Rosario all added prior to the trade deadline, and Atlanta went 36-18 the rest of the way.  A lackluster NL East undoubtedly helped, but the Braves kept it going into October, defeating the Brewers in the NLDS and then ousting the defending champion Dodgers in the NLCS.  That last win was particularly sweet for Atlanta, considering the blown 3-1 lead against Los Angeles in the 2020 League Championship Series.

The Astros had a bit of an easier time of it in the regular season, battling with the A’s and Mariners for the AL West lead for much of the year but eventually pulling ahead in comfortable fashion.  Even without such familiar names as George Springer or Justin Verlander, Houston could still rely on several core members (i.e. Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman, Yuli Gurriel) of its last two pennant winners, plus a pitching staff that has been almost entirely overhauled since the Astros were last in the World Series in 2019.

This will be the fourth time the Astros have reached the Fall Classic, with Houston’s lone championship coming back in 2017.  As you might have heard, there was more than a little controversy attached to the Astros’ success in 2017, so it’s safe to say that another championship won’t erase the “buzzers and garbage cans” cloud that may hang over the franchise for some time to come.  Yet, that hardly matters to a group that has turned over a great number of its personnel since that 2017 season.  Dusty Baker, for instance, has been manager for just the last two years, and it’s hard to not feel some sentiment for the veteran skipper trying to win the first World Series of his long managerial career.

Who is your pick to win it all?  And, as an added bonus, how many games will be required?  (poll link for app users)

Free Agent Faceoff: Kevin Gausman Vs. Robbie Ray

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There are a few options for teams playing at the top of the starting pitching market to choose from this winter. Max Scherzer should land the highest average annual value, but his age (37) might cap the length of those offers at three years. Carlos Rodón had an utterly dominant platform year, but he dealt with some shoulder concerns at the end of the season that could be a red flag for teams. Marcus Stroman has a long track record of durability, great strike-throwing and elite ground-ball numbers, but he doesn’t miss bats the way most teams covet from their top-of-the-rotation arms.

It’s not out of the question someone from that trio could land a deal that surpasses general expectations. It seems more likely, though, that Kevin Gausman and Robbie Ray will ultimately wind up battling one another for the highest overall guarantee among pitchers. Let’s dig into each player’s profile to determine which one teams should have at the top of their preference lists.

For the first few seasons of his career, Gausman occasionally flashed the potential that had made him a top five draft pick. But he also had bouts of inconsistency and struggled badly enough in 2019 to be waived by the Braves and then non-tendered by the Reds, who had plucked him off the wire.

Since signing with the Giants over the 2019-20 offseason, Gausman has taken his game to a new level. His 3.62 ERA in 2020 was among the best marks of his career, and even that belied elite strikeout and walk numbers. That came in only twelve outings because of the shortened season, and Gausman accepted a qualifying offer last winter in hopes of proving he’d markedly improved over a bigger body of work.

Betting on himself is in position to pay off handsomely. Gausman stayed healthy all year, working 192 innings of 2.81 ERA ball. He didn’t quite sustain his 2020 strikeout rate, but this past season’s 29.3% mark still checked in fourteenth among the 129 hurlers with 100+ innings. Gausman’s 15.3% swinging strike rate was even more impressive, placing fifth among that same group. He’ll now market back-to-back great years of performance. He has missed bats at an elite level for the past few seasons, and the righty has always had plus control.

There’s not a whole lot to nitpick about Gausman’s numbers, although it’s at least worth considering that he succeeds somewhat non-traditionally. He’s tinkered with different breaking pitches but has never found an effective one. Instead, he leaned more heavily than ever on his four-seam fastball (52.7%) and splitter (35.3%) in 2021. Per Statcast, Gausman was one of just fourteen starting pitchers to use a split more than 10% of the time. Most teams are probably willing to look past that unconventional repertoire, since Gausman now has a multi-year track record of great play. Still, it’s a lot more common to see aces with a Ray-like arsenal (primarily fastball-slider), and that could be a factor for some clubs.

Great as Gausman was this past season, Ray was arguably better. The southpaw posted a 2.84 ERA over 193 1/3 frames. He thrived in a division that sent three other teams to the playoffs and split his year between a trio of home ballparks, all of which seemed to be favorable for hitters. Gausman spent the year in the National League, where he’d get to face the opposing pitcher on most nights; Ray wasn’t as fortunate pitching in the American League. And while Gausman turns 31 in January, Ray will pitch almost all of next season at age-30 before turning 31 in October.

Ray’s underlying metrics were similarly elite. He fanned 32.1% of opponents, the sixth-highest mark leaguewide. Ray checked in one spot ahead of Gausman on the swinging strike rate leaderboard, with his 15.5% mark ranking fourth. When batters did make contact against Ray, they were more successful than they’d been hitting against Gausman. Ray was more prone to hard contact and fly balls, and he indeed gave up more home runs. But on a batter-by-batter basis, they were similarly effective at preventing baserunners. Opponents hit .210/.267/.401 against Ray; they batted .210/.264/.345 off Gausman.

Of course, teams will take the players’ pre-2021 bodies of work into account when making a decision of this magnitude. For Gausman versus Ray, that only makes things more complicated. While Gausman was great in 2020, Ray had an awful season. He walked 17.9% of batters faced that year, posting a 6.62 ERA in 51 2/3 innings. It was a nightmarish year, but it’s also easy to see teams writing that off as a fluke. Not only was 2020 a season of inherent small samples, Ray made an obvious alteration to his throwing mechanics entering that year. Clearly, Ray’s pre-2020 adjustments negatively impacted his control, but he returned to his original throwing motion in 2021, as he explained to Kaitlyn McGrath of the Athletic last month.

While Gausman’s 2020 was unquestionably better than Ray’s, the latter had the better career track record going into that year. He was an All-Star in 2017, a year in which he finished seventh in NL Cy Young Award voting. He had a top ten strikeout rate (minimum 100 innings) every season from 2016-19. So while Ray was one of the worst pitchers in baseball in 2020, he certainly hasn’t come out of nowhere.

To recap: Gausman and Ray had similarly elite platform seasons. The former was also great in 2020, while the latter had a terrible season. Ray was far better before 2020, though, and he’s nearly a full year younger. Now, we’ll turn it over to the readership. Whom should teams looking to make a splash in free agency this winter prefer: Gausman or Ray?

(poll link for app users)

 

Poll: Who Will Advance To The World Series?

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Both League Championship Series are now set, following the Dodgers’ 2-1 victory over the Giants in Game 5 of the National League Division Series. Over the next week-plus, we’ll see the Astros (home field advantage) battle the Red Sox for the AL pennant while the Braves (home field advantage) take on the Dodgers for the NL crown.

All four teams are dealing with either uncertainty surrounding a key player. It’s still not clear whether the Astros will have Lance McCullers Jr. for the ALCS after he exited his last start against the White Sox due to forearm discomfort and underwent an MRI. On the other side of this matchup, Red Sox star third baseman Rafael Devers has been playing through a forearm injury that has impacted his swing but has yet to detract from his production.

The Braves, meanwhile, don’t know when or whether they’ll get slugger Jorge Soler back into the mix after he tested positive for Covid-19 just hours before their own Game 5 showdown against Milwaukee. The Dodgers have been without Max Muncy throughout the postseason, and both manager Dave Roberts and president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman were deliberately vague when asked about him following last night’s win (Twitter links via Jorge Castillo of the L.A. Times and Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register).

With just four teams remaining in the field and a fresh pair of best-of-seven series set to kick off over the next two days, it seems like a good time to give MLBTR readers a chance to weigh in on who they’re taking in the ALCS and the NLCS (and perhaps an avenue to voice their thoughts on any, um… questionable… calls from last night’s game).

(link to poll for Trade Rumors iOS/Android app users)

MLBTR Poll: NL Wild Card Matchup

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Unlike the American League, where the Wild Card matchup was not known until the final day of the season, the picture in the National League has been clear for some time. The Los Angeles Dodgers are hosting the St. Louis Cardinals.

In one corner, we have the defending World Series champions and the club with 2021’s highest payroll, by a wide margin. The Los Angeles Dodgers are a stacked team that notched 106 victories this season but still couldn’t manage to outflank the Giants in the NL West. Now they find themselves one loss away from an early winter.

In the other corner, we have baseball hottest team. On July 31st, the Cardinals were 52-52, seven games behind the Padres for the second Wild Card spot. But they stormed through the end of the season, going 38-20, including a remarkable 17-game winning streak, and finished seven games ahead of their nearest competitors, the Reds.

On the mound will be two veterans who each already have World Series rings. 37-year-old Max Scherzer will toe the slab for the Dodgers, just over two years after starting 2019’s National League Wild Card game for the Nationals. In that start, Scherzer tossed five innings, allowing four hits, three walks and three earned runs. Although he left the game with his club down 3-1, the Nationals pulled off an incredible comeback and continued on their way to the 2019 World Series crown. Between Washington and Los Angeles this year, Scherzer threw 179 1/3 innings with 236 strikeouts and an ERA of 2.46.

Representing the opposing dugout will be Adam Wainwright, who continues to make mockery of aging curves. The 40-year-old logged 206 1/3 innings this year with 174 strikeouts and an ERA of 3.05. Incredibly, this will be the ninth season of his career where he has made at least one postseason appearance.

Who do you think will emerge victorious? (Poll link for app users.)

Poll: Who’s Going To Win The World Series?

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It took 162 games to decide things, but given all of the uncertainty heading into the final day of the regular season, it is perhaps an upset that a 163rd game (or even a 164th) wasn’t required.  However, the field for the 2021 postseason has now been decided.

The Giants outpaced the Dodgers in a stunning NL West pennant race.  San Francisco shocked the baseball world by winning 107 games, the most victories in the franchise’s 139 seasons.  As a reward, the Giants will get a few days to rest and prepare for the NL Division Series opener on Friday, while Los Angeles (with a whopping 106 wins) will now have to sweat out a single-game eliminator against the hottest team in the sport.

The Cardinals roared into the NL wild card game thanks to a 35-16 record over their last 51 games, including a franchise-record 17-game winning streak.  The Dodgers will host the Cards on Wednesday, and while the two clubs are postseason regulars, this will be their first meeting in the playoffs since 2014.

After a season of tributes to the late Henry Aaron, perhaps it was destiny that Milwaukee and Atlanta would do battle in the postseason for the very first time.  The 95-67 Brewers will host the 88-73 Braves in Game One of their NLDS meeting, which begins on Friday.

The Brewers caught fire in midseason and ran away with the NL Central, topping St. Louis by five games even despite the Cards’ late surge.  Despite a few shaky moments along the way, the Braves nonetheless overcame the loss of injured superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. to capture their fourth straight NL East title.

“Champa Bay” has already collected two Stanley Cups and a Super Bowl within the last two years, and the 100-62 Rays will look to add a World Series title to the local trophy case.  The Rays will start their journey in the AL Division Series on Thursday, and they’ll be facing off against a familiar AL East opponent, no matter who wins the AL wild card game.

That opponent will be decided on Tuesday, as the Yankees and Red Sox will add another chapter to their rivalry by meeting in the wild card game for the first time.  Both New York and Boston won today to clinch their postseason berths, finishing with identical 92-70 records (and holding off the 91-win Blue Jays and the 90-win Mariners).  Because the Sox won the season series by a 10-9 margin, Tuesday’s game will take place at Fenway Park.

The Astros and White Sox will square off in the other ALDS matchups, meeting for the first time in the postseason since Chicago defeated Houston in the 2005 World Series.  The 95-67 Astros have the homefield advantage over the 93-69 White Sox, and this series will mark the first-ever postseason meeting between veteran managers Dusty Baker and Tony La Russa.

Now that we know which 10 teams will be continuing into October, the question remains….who do you think will be the last team standing at the end of October? (Link to poll for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Who Will Be The AL’s Wild Card Teams?

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This season marks the beginning of what should be a competitive era of Blue Jays baseball, but like all good stories, this one began in the middle. Toronto continued their second half surge today with their 83rd win. Over the past year, the Jays have supplemented young cornerstones Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette with an impressive collection of veterans including George Springer, Marcus Semien, Jose Berrios, and two years ago, Hyun Jin Ryu.

Buying low and hitting on reclamation projects like Robbie Ray, Steven Matz – and even Semien – further fueled their organizational turnaround. Give the development team credit for turning less-heralded pieces like Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and Jordan Romano into significant supplemental assets. Young pitching has started to arrive as well, with Alek Manoah impressing in his first 17 starts and Nate Pearson hitting triple-digits in limited usage out of the bullpen.

Charlie Montoyo’s club has pushed all year, but only recently have they angled their way into the AL’s playoff quintet. In fact, today’s win puts them back into playoff position with 14 games to go. Per Fangraphs’ playoff odds, the Jays are well-positioned with a 62.6 percent chance of nabbing one of the two wild card spots.

The Yankees don’t have the momentum of their northern neighbors, but this team is better than the negative press would have you believe. It’s a tough road to hoe, however, with just 13 games remaining and their final nine against the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Rays. Put positively: the Yankees control their own fate. A loss today dropped them a half game behind the Jays, but patience is key.

Good thing, because they Yankees aren’t just the tallest team in the AL, they’ve also been the most patient with a 10.4 percent walk rate. Pairing a walk-heavy approach with the power bats of Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Rizzo, Luke Voit, Joey Gallo and Gary Sanchez ought to be a recipe for success. They’ve been six percent better than average as a group since the trade deadline, but their offense ranks just around the middle of the pack on the year: they rank 9th in the AL in runs, 8th by ISO, 6th by wOBA and 7th by wRC+.

The pitching staff has carried the day, however, ranking 2nd in the AL by fWAR, strikeout rate, ERA, and SIERA, and 3rd by FIP. Gerrit Cole has lived up to his billing as one of the game’s few true frontline starters. But he’s not alone, as Corey Kluber, Jameson Taillon, Nestor Cortes Jr., Jordan Montgomery, Luis Gil, and Domingo German have all provided valuable innings.

Regardless, they will enter play tomorrow 1.5 games behind the Red Sox for the top wild card spot. Boston nabbed their 85th win of the season today, pushing their playoff odds to a robust 85.8 percent. They trail the Rays by 7.5 games, so Tampa’s hold on the division is ironclad, but Boston seems a safe bet to find themselves in the wild card game.

That said, a 1.5 game lead with 12 to go isn’t quite ready to take to the bank. Alex Cora’s team does have the benefit of a soft schedule the rest of the way. Not only do they have the least amount of games remaining among the contenders, but they will happily circle the Beltway for four against the Orioles and three against the Nationals. They have two with the Mets and three with the Yankees, but the BoSox could even mitigate a tough series against the Yanks by taking care of business against inferior teams in those other nine games.

The Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Yankees pose the most compelling cases among the wild card hopefuls because of their divisional rivalries and star power – but they aren’t alone. There are a pair of contenders out west who are still hanging around this race.

The Athletics were largely expected to take a step back this season after losing Semien, Liam Hendriks, Tommy La Stella, Robbie Grossman, and Joakim Soria to free agency. But Bob Melvin has turned in another solid season from the bench, steering this club to 80 wins (and counting) and a .544 win percentage. As of this writing, Oakland sits 2.5 games out of a playoff spot with a lead early in their game against the Angels. Chris Bassitt’s return may provide an emotional boost, but with their final four series switchbacking against the Astros and Mariners, they have an uphill climb ahead.

Speaking of the Astros, they have a seven game lead over Oakland for the AL West and a magic number of nine. With six head-to-head match-ups remaining, the A’s could theoretically overtake Houston to win the division, but that’s not all that likely. Houston has a 99.4 percent chance to win the division right now, so that’s probably where they’ll be after game 162.

The Mariners round out our group of potential playoff teams from the American League. They have six more games against a beatable Angels team, but Scott Servais’ crew remains a long shot contender. They are 3.5 games behind Toronto with three teams to leapfrog and a 1.3 percent chance to play beyond the regular season, per Fangraphs.

The Mariners’ aren’t toast yet, but with seven head-to-head match-ups with the A’s still to come, the two western contenders are likeliest to eliminate one another from wild card contention. These final games count the same as any other, however, and something like a 12-2 finish from either the Mariners or A’s wouldn’t be unheard of. All we can say for sure is that it won’t happen for both teams.

MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk ran through the NL Wild Card contenders just a few days ago, and more than 50 percent of readers went chalk in voting the Cardinals to keep their hold on the NL’s last playoff spot. Now’s your chance to make the call for the AL contenders. Will the Red Sox and Blue Jays hold on? Can the Yankees, A’s, or Mariners yoink a ticket to postseason play? What say you?

(Link to poll for app users)

(Link to poll for app users)

Poll: Who Will Be The NL’s Second Wild Card Team?

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The Giants and Dodgers have both booked their tickets to the 2021 playoffs, though it remains to be seen which club will be NL West champions and which will have to walk the one-game tightrope that is the wild card game.  While the identity of the first NL wild card entry is an either/or situation, the battle for that second wild card slot is still completely wide-open with less than three weeks remaining in the regular season.

The Cardinals held a one-game lead in the standings heading into today’s action, and since the Cards aren’t playing today, they’ll still retain at least a half-game edge when they resume play tomorrow in a crucial three-game series against the Padres.  St. Louis wasn’t even a .500 team (53-55) on August 5, but the team has since gone 23-14 to re-establish itself as a contender.  Both Paul Goldschmidt and Tyler O’Neill have been on fire at the plate since that August 5 date, while Adam Wainwright has continued to turn back the clock with an excellent season.  The Cardinals were criticized for a lack of big moves at the trade deadline, though new additions Jon Lester and J.A. Happ have been solid enough to help stabilize the rotation.  Following the three games with San Diego, the Cardinals’ remaining schedule is entirely against the Brewers and Cubs.

The Padres enter that pivotal St. Louis series going in the opposite direction.  For much of the season, it looked like both NL wild card slots would come from the West division, as San Diego battled alongside the Giants and Dodgers for supremacy.  However, San Diego’s 22-30 record since the All-Star break has left the Padres battling just to get into the postseason.  It has been more or less a team-wide funk over those 52 games, as the Padres rank 24th in baseball in both wRC+ (92) and pitching fWAR (2.5) in the second half, though the rotation at least has the excuse of multiple injuries.  It doesn’t help that the Padres also have a very tough remaining schedule — all of their remaining games are against the Cardinals, Giants, Dodgers, and Braves.

Even after today’s 1-0 victory over the Pirates, the Reds still have just five wins in their last 17 games, stumbling back in the standings after a nice surge in late July and early August.  Speaking of scheduling, Cincinnati hasn’t done well to take advantage of some weaker opponents, as that 17-game window has included losing series to such weaker opponents as the Marlins, Cubs, Tigers, and Pirates (and a 2-4 record against the Cardinals).  With 10 remaining games against the Pirates and Nationals, the Reds’ schedule still offers plenty of opportunity to bank wins, and the impending return of Jesse Winker should be a major boost to the Cincinnati lineup.

The Phillies still have a shot at the NL East even if they can’t capture the wild card, but after going 2-6 in their last eight games, the bottom line is that Philadelphia needs to get hot in a hurry.  The Phils begin a three-game set against the Mets tomorrow and face the Braves in a three-game series at the end of September, but the schedule is otherwise not difficult on paper — 10 games against the Orioles, Pirates, and Marlins.  While the bullpen and the back of the rotation continue to be an issue for the Phillies, MVP candidate Bryce Harper is doing his best to try and carry this inconsistent team into the playoffs.

The old “Miracle Mets” nickname might need to be dusted off if 72-75 New York can somehow squeak into the playoffs as either a wild card or as the NL East champions.  The Mets are five games out of the division lead and 5.5 games out of the wild card entering today, leaving them with essentially no margin for error the rest of the way.  Losing this series with the Phillies might all but officially end the Mets’ chances, but nine games against the Braves, Brewers, and Red Sox still loom on the upcoming schedule.

Just to cover our bases, the NL East-leading Braves will also be included in the poll just in case the Phillies or Mets do steal the division.  (Though one would imagine that in that scenario, the Braves would have to slump badly enough to take them out of wild card contention as well.)  Following a scorching hot 16-2 stretch in August, Atlanta is only 8-12 over its last 20 games, which is just enough to make things interesting in September.  The Braves end their season with six games against the Phillies and Mets, and also have a ten-game road trip featuring six games against the Padres and Giants sandwiched around a four-game set with the cellar-dwelling Diamondbacks.

Who do you think will capture that second wild card slot? (Link to poll for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Amed Rosario’s Future

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Amed Rosario found his swing in August. The Indians shortstop slashed .372/.397/.584 in 121 plate appearances across 26 games in August. That effort buoyed his overall line to .288/.327/.422, two percent better than average by measure of wRC+. Among qualified shortstops, Rosario ranks 13th in the Majors, firmly between Javier Baez and Nicky Lopez. Both Baez and Lopez are considered plus defenders, however, while the jury is still out on Rosario (-8 DRS, 1.4 UZR,-1 OAA in 876 innings).

In fact, there’s question as to whether Rosario will be a shortstop at all next season, writes Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon Journal. The uncertainty is driven not so much by his glovework, however, but because of Andres Gimenez, whose defensive prowess makes him a better long-term fit for the position. Gimenez has yet to hit for the Indians, but he tore up Triple-A with a .287/.342/.502 line. Still just 22-years-old, the Indians hope that he can seize shortstop as his own next season. If that happens, Rosario could be expendable.

When played together, Cleveland has put Gimenez at the keystone, though that doesn’t seem to be the long-term plan. That might speak to an uneasiness about playing Rosario at second, or it could be that they’d just rather keep the consistency of Rosario at short for this season. In theory, Rosario could have a future at second, but we haven’t seen him play there yet, and Lewis suggests he’s more likely to be utilized in the outfield.

Rosario’s development at the plate, therefore, hasn’t solidified Cleveland’s shortstop picture, but it does provide the organization with the one thing every front office wants these days: flexibility. Rosario could well be used at shortstop, but he could also return to the outfield or even be used as trade bait, Lewis notes.

If he does go back to the grass, it’s more likely to be in one of the corners than in center. Myles Straw has stabilized center, allowing Rosario to slide to a corner to potentially cover for Josh Naylor until he’s healthy enough to return. Rosario spent 123 1/3 innings in center this year, not enough of a sample to make a decision about his defensive ability there, but enough to grant credence to the idea of Rosario as a supersub.

The concern would be that Rosario’s bat doesn’t yet play as a plus in an outfield corner. That said, the depth at shortstop league-wide is such that the positions aren’t as far apart as in the past. By wRC+, Rosario would rank 18th among right fielders with at least 400 plate appearances, or 14th among left fielders – suggesting that Rosario could be a passable option in a corner.

He certainly could have a role as a supersub who plays everyday, but he might bring more value to a club who wants to install him as their everyday shortstop. He has two years of team control remaining, which adds to his appeal.

What happens next might depend on how the 25-year-old finishes the season. Cleveland has time to figure this out, but if Rosario has finally established himself as an everyday regular, the rest is gravy. Now they just have to figure out what to do with him. Can we point them in the right direction?

(poll link for app users)

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