MLBTR Polls

Before they inked mega-deals earlier this offseason, Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon understandably dominated headlines as the unquestioned best relievers available in free agency. No one remaining on the market will land a contract even approaching theirs (Melancon’s on the low end at a whopping $62MM), but there are still several proven late-game commodities who haven’t signed yet.

Melancon is taking over as the Giants’ closer, a role previously held by a pair of current free agents in Santiago Casilla and Sergio Romo. The 36-year-old Casilla has saved 127 games, including 31 in 2016, but he racked up a major league-worst nine blown opportunities last season and, despite posting 10.09 K/9 against 2.95 BB/9, logged his highest ERA (3.57) since 2009. On the plus side, Casilla exceeded 50 innings for the seventh straight year (58), recorded a respectable ground-ball rate in line with his career average (47.6 percent compared to 48.7 percent) and didn’t experience a drop in velocity.

Romo, who will turn 34 in March, got better results than Casilla last year (2.64 ERA), but he only threw 30 2/3 innings and saw his velocity tumble to career lows. Despite that, Romo’s 14.9 percent swinging strike rate was in the upper echelon among relievers, as was his 13.9 percent infield fly mark (slightly better than Casilla’s 13.2). Romo also yielded the second-lowest exit velocity in the majors, per Statcast, to go with 9.68 K/9 against 2.05 BB/9. While Romo didn’t figure prominently into the ninth inning over the past couple seasons, he nonetheless has an accomplished end-of-game resume with 84 saves and 141 holds in his career.

No free agent has done a better job securing wins than longtime Royal Greg Holland, who has 145 saves (125 of which came from 2013-15). Holland was especially brilliant between 2011-14, a four-year period during which he combined for the majors’ fourth-best ERA (1.86) and the league’s sixth-ranked K/9 (12.57) across 256 1/3 frames. Holland then fell off in 2015 (3.83 ERA), a year in which his velocity declined and his BB/9 spiked to 5.24 (up from 3.52), thanks in part to a “significant” UCL tear. That injury led to October 2015 Tommy John surgery for Holland, who missed all of last season as a result. In spite of that, a hefty portion of the league has expressed interest in the 31-year-old this winter.

Like Casilla, Romo and Holland, Neftali Feliz brings vast ninth-inning experience (99 saves), though the ex-Rangers closer worked as a setup man with the Pirates last season. Along the way, Feliz accumulated 29 holds in 53 2/3 frames and registered a 3.52 ERA, 10.23 K/9 and 3.52 BB/9 to bounce back from a 2015 in which he finished with mediocre or worse numbers in those three categories (6.38 ERA, 7.31 K/9 and 3.38 BB/9). The 28-year-old did put up the second-lowest infield fly rate of his career last year (15.4), but it was still easily above the 9.9 percent league-average figure and went well with a personal-high swinging strike mark of 14.2 percent. Feliz also saw his velocity jump in 2016, which could further entice clubs searching for late-game help.

Contrary to the above four, Joe Blanton has never been a closer – the 36-year-old has mostly worked as a starter, in fact – but not many have been better out of the bullpen over the past couple seasons. Last year was Blanton’s first as a full-time reliever, and the then-Dodger finished sixth in innings (80) and compiled a 2.48 ERA, 9.00 K/9 and 2.93 BB/9. The slider-heavy Blanton also got swinging strikes a career-high 14.2 percent of the time (up from 13.0 in 2015), though both his 32.3 percent ground-ball rate and 5.3 percent infield pop-up mark stand out as concerns.

While these five aren’t in the Chapman-Jansen-Melancon class, all could serve as boons to their next teams’ bullpens. In your opinion, which member of the group is the most desirable target? Or, instead of this quintet, maybe there’s another free agent reliever you’d rather have.

(Poll link for Trade Rumors app users)

With an action-packed December on the verge of ending (happy holidays, MLBTR fans!), the most entertaining moments of Major League Baseball’s Hot Stove season have likely passed. As evidenced by what’s left of a free agent class that was uninspiring from the outset, the majority of this winter’s top available players have already found new homes. On the trade front, it’s possible we won’t see any more blockbusters, though this month’s Winter Meetings certainly brought a couple memorable ones that will hugely impact the involved franchises for years to come.

Of all the transactions that have taken place in December, there are a few which arguably stand out as head-scratchers. We’ll touch on a trio of those moves below and ask the readers to share their opinions via the poll and comments section:

Nationals send a prospect haul to the White Sox for outfielder Adam Eaton: Both sides made out well in this trade from my vantage point, but the Nationals have drawn criticism for surrendering two of MLB.com’s Top 100 prospects, right-handers Lucas Giolito (No. 3) and Reynaldo Lopez (No. 38), and 2016 first-round righty Dane Dunning to acquire Eaton. After making the deal at the Winter Meetings, Nationals president and general manager Mike Rizzo told predecessor Jim Bowden (now of ESPN and Sirius XM) that he was “getting barbecued.” Bowden is one of Rizzo’s most outspoken critics in this case, as he regards it as the “worst trade” he has ever seen (via Dan Steinberg of the Washington Post).

If you’re to believe wins above replacement, the well-rounded Eaton has been among the majors’ most valuable outfielders during his three full major league seasons, having combined for 12.8 fWAR and 15.3 rWAR in 1,933 plate appearances dating back to 2014. The 28-year-old also possesses one of the sport’s most team-friendly contracts for an established player, which made it all the more reasonable for rebuilding Chicago to demand a ransom in return. Eaton is controllable for the next five seasons, including club options in 2020 and ’21, at a maximum value of $38MM. He and Bryce Harper should form two-thirds of an excellent outfield in D.C. for at least two seasons (Harper will be a free agent after the 2018 campaign), though the latter’s presence in right will force Eaton to center. Eaton’s coming off a season in which he was an elite defender in right with a major league-high 23.1 Ultimate Zone Rating and 22 Defensive Runs Saved (second). The metrics haven’t liked Eaton nearly as much in center (minus-21 UZR, minus-8 DRS in 3,115 career innings), which – along with the young pitchers the Nationals lost – has led to skepticism regarding Washington’s half of the trade.

Rockies spend $70MM over five years on Ian Desmond … to play first base? After receiving replacement-level production at first last year from a slew of players (mostly Mark Reynolds), Colorado entered the offseason in desperate need at the position. The Rockies also came into the winter having promised to post a franchise-record payroll in 2017, so the fact that they prioritized first and allocated big money to it wasn’t a shock. But, instead of adding one of the many first base types available, they weirdly signed Desmond. The career shortstop/outfielder will now occupy the least valuable defensive position on the field, and his bat won’t play as well there as it has at short or in center field. With Texas last season, the 31-year-old Desmond spent the vast majority of his time in center and logged a solid 106 wRC+ (league average for the position in 2016 was 96). If he’d have recorded the same production at first, where the league-average wRC+ was 108, he’d have been a much less appealing offensive cog. Nevertheless, if you’re to believe Rockies general manager Jeff Bridich, Desmond will be their first baseman going forward. Considering both the money the Rockies gave Desmond and the first-round pick they lost to sign him (the eminently valuable 11th overall selection), it comes off as an odd choice.

Yankees reunite with Aroldis Chapman: It was hardly surprising that the Yankees brought back Chapman, whom they traded to the Cubs for star prospect Gleyber Torres at last summer’s deadline, or inked him to a record contract for a reliever. After all, MLBTR predicted he’d secure a five-year, $90MM accord from the Bombers, who ended up giving him an $86MM guarantee over a half-decade. The problem is twofold (and this ignores Chapman’s past domestic violence issues): 1. The Yankees are bent on getting under the luxury tax threshold soon (they’re on track to exceed it for a 15th straight year in 2017), and splurging on a reliever won’t help their cause. 2. The deal grants Chapman the ability to opt out after Year 3, which doesn’t seem to align with their window of contention. New York is amid a retooling phase and has been stockpiling youth as a result, so touted prospects like Torres, Clint Frazier and Jorge Mateo, among others, might not be ready to hit their respective strides for another few years. By then, Chapman could be in another uniform. In the meantime, and in fairness to the Yankees, the flame-throwing left-hander should continue serving as a dominant closer who helps them lock down late-game leads. But whether they’ll have enough of those leads to be a playoff team in the near future is in question.

(Poll link for Trade Rumors App users)

The Winter Meetings saw a pair of high-profile trades, but also four free agent signings in excess of $60MM. Of the four teams to open their checkbooks, which made the best move?

Aroldis Chapman, five years, $86MM, Yankees. The Yankees brought back their former closer to rejoin Dellin Betances to form perhaps the best setup/closer tandems in baseball. There’s no questioning Chapman’s dominance, and a lefty with three-digit heat and a 15.5 K/9 is a unique asset indeed. But the Yankees also gave Chapman an opt-out after three years, one that presumably won’t require him to forgo his $11MM signing bonus. And they gave him a no-trade clause through the first three seasons as well, plus a limited no-trade through the last two. As Mike Axisa of River Ave Blues pointed out after the deal, it’s possible the opt-out will arrive just as the Yankees have assembled their best team in years. Then there’s also Chapman’s troubling personal history.

Dexter Fowler, five years, $82.5MM, Cardinals. The Cardinals filled their center field vacancy with Fowler, who batted .276/.393/.447 last season with the Cubs. In so doing, the Cardinals also avoided a trade market that’s been ugly for buyers, as the Nationals’ trade for Adam Eaton perhaps demonstrated. The Cards are buying Fowler’s age-31 through -35 seasons, years in which an athletic player might well remain productive. They did give up the 19th overall pick in the draft with the signing, though, and even the Cardinals have characterized the dollar figure required to land Fowler as “over the top.”

Ian Desmond, five years, $70MM, Rockies. In what was surely the most surprising of the four signings, the Rockies landed a veteran leader who reinvented himself as an outfielder in an excellent comeback season in Texas. Desmond’s defensive flexibility will give the Rockies options as they build their team for the years ahead, and his 20-homer offense should benefit from Coors Field. The Rockies did, however, give up the first protected pick of the draft — No. 11 overall — to make the signing, costing the team eight-figure value not already included in the contract. And the team didn’t look like a contender in 2016 and might or might not be one in 2017, raising questions about whether now was the right time for them to pursue this kind of veteran talent.

Mark Melancon, four years, $62MM, Giants. The Giants were expected to pursue a closer, and they dodged higher-dollar targets like Chapman or Kenley Jansen (and the loss of a draft pick Jansen would require) to sign the 31-year-old Melancon. Melancon’s results in the last four seasons are indisputably terrific — the highest ERA he’s had in that time has been 2.23. He also has terrific control (with a 1.5 BB/9 last season) and routinely posts great ground-ball numbers (54.2% last year). He doesn’t have a typical profile for a dominant closer, however, with only modest velocity (91.8 MPH average fastball velocity last year, down about a mile from 2013) and a strikeout rate that’s only a bit more than half of Chapman’s. Long-term reliever contracts have historically been dicey propositions, and it remains to be seen if Melancon can dodge the trends. Melancon’s deal also contains considerable value not included in the $62MM total in the form of a no-trade clause and an opt-out after the first two years.

What do you think? Which team’s new contract is the best of the four?