MLBTR Polls

In this week’s MLBTR Mailbag, Steve Adams opined that it might take a 13-year, $375MM offer — or more — for the Nationals to make a serious run at extending outfielder Bryce Harper. That number factors in an estimated $36MM over two seasons of arbitration eligibility (2017-18) and then eleven more years at a $31MM AAV. A contract of that magnitude would be enough to best Giancarlo Stanton’s 13-year, $325MM deal (which also included a significant opt-out provision).

That’s an immense amount of cash, but Harper is about to cap a 10 WAR season at just 22 years of age. The Scott Boras client will hit the open market before he turns 26 years of age, and would have more or less unprecedented earning capacity if he maintains anything approaching his current level of production.

To put things in some perspective, in addition to the Stanton deal, consider the Tigers’ extension of Miguel Cabrera. At the time, Cabrera was set to enter his age-31 season after a huge 2013 campaign that capped a sustained run of excellence at the plate. He was already controlled for two years and $44MM, but the club added another eight seasons and $248MM on top of that (along with two vesting options at $30MM a pop). The AAV of the extension is $31MM, the same amount that Steve theorized for Harper.

While there’s no indication that Harper and the Nats are talking, or have plans to do so, it’s interesting to consider what it might take to get something done. It’s conceivable, of course, that the parties could consider a different type of deal — Mike Trout’s six-year, $144.5MM extension provides another model altogether — but a maximum value scenario seems more plausible.

Adding eleven free agent seasons at a $20MM average annual value would push Harper past $250MM. At $24MM annually, the total guarantee would be an even $300MM. Or, if you think that Steve is light, and Harper could take down $35MM a year over his free-agent-eligible campaigns, we’d be staring at a $421MM tab.

Assuming the scenario that Steve proposed — two arb years plus eleven more — what kind of cash do you think would be fair and adequate compensation to get a 13-year deal done? Remember, you can discuss in the comments or join the debate over on Instagram.

Every winter, a host of players agree to minor league contracts with hopes of finding good opportunities to make it onto a big league roster at some point in the season. Some of these are reached early on, as teams target players they like but who lack the track record to warrant a major league deal. Others are made just before Spring Training by players who had been holding out hope for a guaranteed contract.

In most cases, minor league signees provide depth and leadership in the upper minors. A good number of those players end up as solid role players on the major league roster, some more impactful than others. And every now and again, a high-end big league player emerges after inking a non-guaranteed contract. (E.g., J.D. Martinez, Justin Turner.)

This year’s MiLB free agent crop didn’t produce any controllable standouts in the mold of Martinez and Turner, but it was loaded with quality players who have delivered immense value to their teams. Who gets your vote as the best of the year?

(Teams listed are original signing clubs. Players ordered alphabetically by last name. Did I miss someone? Choose “Other” and discuss in the comments.) 

Joe Blanton, Royals — After appearing in just two minor league games last year, the 34-year-old righty was surprising enough when putting up solid results for Kansas City. But he’s been even better for the Pirates, firing 26 frames from the pen with a 31:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio and just four earned runs.

Franklin Gutierrez, Mariners — He hasn’t had much big league time, but the 32-year-old slashing a ridiculous .309/.358/.647 in 148 MLB plate appearances and was hitting quite well at Triple-A before that. He’ll be quite an interesting free agent to watch, though of course his .357 BABIP and (especially) 36.4% home run-to-flyball ratio are bound to fall.

Kelly Johnson, Braves — Johnson has been steady and productive since signing with Atlanta and moving to the Mets via trade. Filling in all over the diamond, Johnson has provided his clubs with flexibility and a .270/.319/.456 slash in 308 trips to the plate.

Mark Lowe, Mariners — A relatively undistinguished reliever for most of his career, Lowe transformed into a stud this year in Seattle. He hasn’t been quite as good since being shipped to the Jays, but still owns a 1.63 ERA with 10.3 K/9 against 2.0 BB/9 over 49 2/3 frames.

Ryan Madson, Royals — Madson, 34, had not even pitched in the big leagues since 2011 when he came to K.C., yet he picked up right where he left off. All told, he’s contributed 54 2/3 innings with a 2.47 ERA and 8.4 K/9 against 2.0 BB/9.

Franklin Morales, Royals — Notice a theme here? Another bargain bin score for a bullpen that hardly needed any help, the southpaw Morales has tossed 58 innings of 2.79 ERA ball. He’s been particularly stingy against opposing lefties, but has also held righties to below-league-average batting results.

Clint Robinson, Nationals — Unlike the other players on this list, Robinson had virtually no track record in the big leagues coming into the year. While his outfield defense has been predictably poor, it’s not really his fault that the club was forced to use him out of position. Robinson has been a revelation on offense, slashing .272/.368/.423 over 277 plate appearances.

Geovany Soto, White Sox — It was somewhat surprising to see the veteran Soto fail to earn a big league contract, and he’s shown why in Chicago. With well-rated defense and a .237/.321/.444 slash over his 191 plate appearances, Soto has been worth about a win and a half above replacement despite limited duty — and that’s before factoring in his strong framing numbers.

Carlos Villanueva, Cardinals — Targeted by St. Louis because of his swingman capabilities, Villanueva has not been needed as a starter but has excelled in the pen. He sits with a sub-3.00 ERA over 57 1/3 innings, with 8.2 K/9 against 3.0 BB/9.

There are a variety of factors that can lead players — even those good enough to command many millions of guaranteed dollars — to sign one-year deals as free agents, ranging from age to the need to prove health or ability before returning to the market in search of a longer contract. From a team’s perspective, it can be beneficial to promise a higher single-season payout rather than limiting roster flexibility and buying up post-prime seasons with a multi-year pact.

With most of the season in the books, it seemed like an opportune time to look back at those one-year pacts that have seemingly worked out. The good news for these players, of course, is that they enjoyed solid platform deals to work off of in their next foray onto the open market.

Excluding the many minor league pacts, I’ve come up with a list of nominees out of the dozens of one-year deals agreed upon last winter. So, which of these deals (listed from cheapest to most expensive) represents the best value for the team that reached it?

• Nori Aoki, Giants ($4.7MM + option): Before dealing with an unfortunate concussion issue, Aoki seemed well on his way to representing one of the steals of last year’s free agent market, and there’s an argument to be made that he still is just that — especially when you factor in the reasonable option for next year.
• Asdrubal Cabrera, Rays ($7.5MM): Checking in with a slightly-above-average .264/.317/.420 batting line and solid defensive and baserunning numbers, Cabrera has been worth over two wins above replacement in less than 500 plate appearances. That’s hard to find for a reasonable price on the open market.
• Colby Rasmus, Astros ($8MM): Rasmus has been a solid, two-win player for Houston in just over 400 plate appearances, representing nice value for the investment. He’s been much the same player he was last year, but the ’Stros did well to get his youth, power, and upside for such a meager commitment.
• A.J. Burnett, Pirates ($8.5MM): After an ill-fated swing south to Philadelphia, Burnett returned triumphantly to Pittsburgh this year. Though he lost some time with a DL stint, the veteran righty has still racked up 140 1/3 frames of 3.14 ERA ball.
• Brett Anderson, Dodgers ($10MM): Los Angeles rolled the dice on the talented lefty, and it has paid off handsomely. Though his peripherals are less compelling — Anderson only rates out at 1.6 fWAR — he’s contributed 158 innings of 3.36 ERA pitching.

The August 31st trade deadline — for adding players to an organization who will be eligible for the post-season — is not nearly as celebrated as the July 31st version. To be sure, most significant deals occur at the earlier date, since thereafter players must clear revocable waivers (or be claimed by the acquiring team) to be dealt.

But that doesn’t mean it isn’t relevant. This year, several clubs were in competition to add outfield options as September approached. On deadline day alone, five players who figure as platoon/reserve options changed hands.

So, which of these moves looks to provide the best value to the acquiring team? (Links to posts on acquisitions; poll order randomized.)

Cubs acquire Austin Jackson from Mariners — Jackson will cost Chicago $1MM, a player to be named later, and an international bonus slot ($211,100). In exchange, the Cubs get a center field-capable player who has fallen why shy of his early-career numbers since heading to Seattle. He’s always maintained even platoon splits, so he’s not exactly a typical time-share candidate, but he provides flexibility across the outfield.

Royals acquire Jonny Gomes from Braves — Kansas City took on about $380K of Gomes’ remaining salary and parted with young infielder Luis Valenzuela to add the veteran. Gomes is a classic late-season add: he’s a valued member of the clubhouse and mauls left-handed pitching, making him a limited but useful role player.

Giants acquire Alejandro De Aza from Red Sox — While they won’t owe De Aza much (if anything) in the way of salary, San Francisco did have to give up an interesting (but underperforming) arm in Luis Ysla. In De Aza, San Francisco gets a player who has hit well in recent months and traditionally performs well against right-handed pitching.

Dodgers acquire Justin Ruggiano from Mariners, Chris Heisey from Blue Jays — Los Angeles took a different approach from the teams listed above, adding two right-handed bats who could end up serving in platoon roles with expanded rosters and possibly competing for a single post-season roster spot. Both have spent much of the year in Triple-A, and cost little to add.

It was reported yesterday that the Red Sox are preparing to move Hanley Ramirez from left field to first base for the 2016 season (if not before). Ramirez has struggled badly defending on the grass, and the team did not have a clear solution at first. Two birds, one stone for new president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski.

But is it really that simple? We’ve heard conflicting viewpoints all year as to whether another position change for HanRam will be better or worse. Some have pointed out that he will impact the entire infield defense by playing at first, while others have noted that the long-time shortstop ought to be able to handle the transition.

Many American League teams would have considered shifting Ramirez to a DH role, and that may still happen down the line. But with David Ortiz entrenched in that spot for at least another season, it’s not an immediate option.

Alternatively, Ramirez could be shifted back to third base. After all, he’s spent most of his career on the left side of the infield. But there were already indications he was a less-than-ideal candidate there before he moved. And such a plan would, needless to say, be complicated by the presence of fellow offseason signee Pablo Sandoval — who also looks to have negative trade value at present.

Other than continuing the outfield experiment, the only other seemingly viable route would be an attempt at a trade. That’s complicated by the fact that, outside of a productive April, Ramirez has fallen far shy of expectations at the plate. While plenty of clubs would be happy to bet on a turnaround, given his long history of production, Ramirez hardly represents a free roll of the dice. He’s promised $66MM over the next three years, with a very achievable vesting clause that could tack on another $22MM.

We’ve seen which way Boston seems to be headed with Ramirez. But was that the best option? State your opinion in the following poll:

There’s still some time left for contenders to make August deals. (You can still trade in September, but acquired players aren’t eligible for the post-season.) But we already have seen a decent number of sturdy veterans moved this month.

So, let’s take a quick poll. The question is simple: which of the following additions over the month of August made the biggest positive difference for a team hoping to bolster its chances at qualifying for and moving through the postseason?

• Mets acquire lefty Eric O’Flaherty from Athletics for minor league righty Dawrin Frias. New York needed a southpaw specialist, and liked how O’Flaherty was throwing, but he’s struggled since heading to the Mets.
• Rangers acquire first baseman Mike Napoli from Red Sox for PTBNL or cash. The resurgent Napoli returns to his former club to add a big right-handed bat to a lefty-heavy lineup, and he’s mashed in limited action.
• Blue Jays acquire infielder Cliff Pennington from Diamondbacks for minor league infielder Dawel Lugo. Pennington provides depth for Toronto. He hasn’t hit all year, and that has yet to change since the move.
• Astros acquire lefty Oliver Perez from Diamondbacks for minor league lefty Junior Garcia. Houston was pleased that it was able to win the claim for Perez and work out a deal to add the veteran LOOGY. He’s been strong so far.
• Rangers acquire outfielder Will Venable from Padres for minor league righty Jon Edwards and minor league catcher/outfielder Marcus Greene. Texas has a range of outfield options, but with Josh Hamilton a near-constant injury question, the versatile Venable represents flexibility for the surprising club.
• Dodgers acquire second baseman Chase Utley from Phillies for minor league outfielder Darnell Sweeney and minor league righty John Richy. While Utley’s play has dropped off this year, he’s been better of late and has an impeccable track record.
• Giants acquire outfielder Marlon Byrd from Reds for minor league righty Stephen Johnson. We’ve heard for some time that San Francisco wanted an offensive-oriented outfield bat, and the team finally landed a sturdy, veteran option in Byrd.
• Twins acquire lefty Neal Cotts from Brewers for PTBNL or cash. The Minnesota pen has been badly in need of some upgrades for some time, and Cotts looks like a good add, but did the team wait too long to make a move?

(Listed earliest to most recent; randomized in poll. Bear in mind that most of these deals also included salary offsets; see links for details. Note: Utley was mistakenly omitted from the original version of the poll and was not an option for the first ~2,400 voters.) 

We took the temperature of the MLBTR readership recently on the subject of deadline buyers, with the Blue Jays getting the most top ratings, and now we’ll turn to the seller’s side of the line. As I noted there, while we heard a lot of talk of teams reshaping their current rosters rather than strictly buying or selling, that really did not occur much this year.

The following organizations all pursued slightly different strategies in moving current production for future assets. Which do you think did it best?

Future Asset Traders

These clubs not only moved rental pieces, but also dealt significant players with future control in order to add other future assets.

Rockies acquire Jose Reyes, Jeff Hoffman, Miguel Castro, & Jesus Tinoco in deal for Troy Tulowitzki & LaTroy Hawkins — Still-fresh GM Jeff Bridich shocked the baseball world by finally putting an end to the Tulo rumors. Now, the team has another expensive veteran shortstop that could become a trade piece, along with three fresh young arms.

Brewers acquire Brett Phillips, Josh Hader, Domingo Santana & Adrian Houser, Zach Davies, and Yhonathan Barrios in deals for Carlos Gomez & Mike Fiers, Gerardo Parra, and Aramis Ramirez — Milwaukee gave up some cheap control in both Gomez and Fiers, while selling high on the expiring Parra and saving dollars with Ramirez. Phillips headlines a nice group of prospects who’ll replenish the Brewers system.

Phillies acquire Matt Harrison, Jorge Alfaro, Jake Thompson, Nick Williams, Alec Asher, & Jerad Eickhoff, Nick Pivetta, Jimmy Cordero & Alberto Tirado in deals for Cole Hamels & Jake Diekman, Jonathan Papelbon, and Ben Revere — The Hamels saga rivals that of Tulowitzki for duration and attention. So, was it worth the wait? Philly landed three top-100 prospects in the deal, spreading its bets when it couldn’t seem to pry loose a super-premium youngster.

Braves acquire Hector Olivera, Paco Rodriguez, & Zachary Bird, Rob Whalen & John Gant in deals for Alex Wood, Jim Johnson, Luis Avilan, Bronson Arroyo & Jose Peraza, Juan Uribe & Kelly Johnson — The Wood-Olivera deal (originally “the Latos deal”) might have been the deadline’s most interesting, and it’ll take quite some time to see how it plays out. Atlanta continues to be exceedingly creative in structuring trades.

Indians acquire Rob Kaminsky, Eric Stamets, and Abraham Almonte in deals for Brandon Moss, David Murphy, and Marc Rzepczynski — Cleveland was said to be unlikely to deal Moss, but was overwhelmed with the offer of Kaminsky, a highly-regarded young pitcher.

Rental Dealers

Many of these deadline sellers dabbled in deals for players under control for the future, but ultimately ended up moving only their pure rentals.

Reds acquire Brandon Finnegan, John Lamb, & Cody Reed, Keury Mella & Adam Duvall in deals for Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake — Moving its soon-to-be-free agent starters long seemed a given, and Cincinnati was able to bolster its future staff with some appealing arms. The club held off on deals for other veterans, including Marlon Byrd and Jay Bruce, but could consider future trades.

Athletics acquire Sean Manaea & Aaron Brooks, Casey Meisner, Jacob Nottingham & Daniel Mengden in deals for Ben Zobrist, Tyler Clippard, and Scott Kazmir — Likewise, the A’s showed little inclination to discuss controllable pieces, instead moving its best expiring veteran assets. The club opted for upside over near-term contributions in its returns, marking something of a departure from other recent trades.

Tigers acquire Daniel Norris, Jairo Labourt & Matt Boyd, Michael Fulmer & Luis Cessa, and JaCoby Jones in deals for David Price, Yoenis Cespedes, and Joakim Soria — Detroit waited until the last minute to hit the sell button, and then shipped out three high-end veterans to add young talent, especially in the rotation. The Tigers seemingly structured their moves to prepare for another run next year.

Limited Sellers

These clubs all likely considered more significant sell-offs, but ultimately chose to shave some salary and move a few pieces that probably did not figure prominently in future plans.

Marlins acquire Kevin Guzman, Jeff Brigham & Victor Araujo, Elliot Soto & Ivan Pineyro, Tomas Telis & Cody Ege, and Kyle Barraclough in deals for Mat Latos & Michael Morse, Dan Haren, Sam Dyson, and Steve Cishek — While we heard some chatter about Martin Prado and Marcell Ozuna, Miami held onto those controllable players. The club also did not pull off a move for a starter with extended control, as had been rumored.

Rays acquire Eduar Lopez, Chih-Wei Hu & Alexis Tapia in deals for Kevin Jepsen and David DeJesus — Tampa Bay remains in the Wild Card hunt, but shopped its controllable relief assets and moved the veteran DeJesus. All in all, the team elected to make smaller-scale moves, as was expected.

Mariners acquire Adrian Sampson, Ramon Flores & Jose Ramirez, Rob Rasmussen, Jake Brentz & Nick Wells in deals for J.A. Happ, Dustin Ackley, and Mark Lowe — Entering the deadline in a tough position, the Mariners decided to hold for the most part, but did move two solid arms and finally parted with Ackley, a former top prospect.

Red Sox acquire Josh Rutledge in deal for Shane Victorino — Boston was one of those teams rumored to be in the market to buy for the future, and also may have considered moves involving large contract swaps, but will now do the bulk of its work in the offseason (though August deals can’t be ruled out).

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There are many ways to break out the bunches of deals we see at the trade deadline every year, and the division of teams into buyers and sellers may no longer mean quite what it did before the addition of a second Wild Card. But it nevertheless remains clear that a good number of teams can be placed into those two camps, at least now that the moves are in the books, and we didn’t really see any club pull off the balleyhooed “buy and sell” (even if some tried).

Let’s focus here on the buy-side. Adding players for the stretch (and a possible post-season run) requires teams to identify needs, evaluate internal options, and value their own future assets in structuring deals. Needless to say, there’s far more to it than just getting the best or best-known player you can.

So, here’s the poll question: looking at the teams that made moves to bolster their current rosters, which one made the best additions, all things considered? I’ll organize the teams into rough groupings for ease of reading:

High-Cost Rentals

Two teams pushed their trade chips squarely toward the present, acquiring multiple players who will all become free agents after the season.

Royals acquire Johnny Cueto, Ben Zobrist — This seemed like the moment to push the chips in for GM Dayton Moore, and he did just that, adding two of the most hotly-pursue players. But those big adds came at the cost of appealing arms like Brandon Finnegan and Sean Manaea.

Mets acquire Yoenis Cespedes, Tyler Clippard, Juan Uribe & Kelly Johnson — After adding some solid pieces in areas of need, GM Sandy Alderson pulled the trigger on a marquee rental in Cespedes. The Mets’ overall mix looks much better right now, but they won’t own the rights to the futures of young pitchers Michael Fulmer and Casey Meisner.

Major Moves – Rent And Buy

Those weren’t the only clubs that paid high prices for rentals, but these teams also picked up significant players who will be controllable after 2015.

Astros acquire Scott Kazmir, Carlos Gomez & Mike Fiers — We’ve seen GM Jeff Luhnow as an accumulator of young talent; now, we got to see him spend it. He opted to add a high-upside rental arm, a year and a half of the excellent Gomez, and a controllable arm in Fiers, dealing from the team’s young depth (including high-rated youngsters like Brett Phillips, Josh Hader, and Jacob Nottingham) to do so.

Cardinals acquire Brandon Moss, Steve Cishek, Jonathan Broxton — While the relievers were available for little more than some salary relief, the reasonably affordable and controllable Moss cost highly-regarded pitching prospect Rob Kaminsky. But nobody knows young arms like St. Louis, and they filled a clear need with the slugger.

Blue Jays acquire Troy Tulowitzki & LaTroy Hawkins, David Price, Ben Revere, Mark Lowe — Toronto added some big names despite facing a large deficit in the AL East, and parted with a long list of pitching prospects to get things done, including highly-regarded young hurlers Daniel Norris and Jeff Hoffman.

Dodgers acquire Mat Latos, Alex Wood, Jim Johnson & Luis Avilan — Los Angeles took on a good bit of salary to add a group of solid arms to the big league roster (while also picking up future years of Wood as well as prospect Jose Peraza), and gave up Hector Olivera in the process.

Multiple Veteran Pieces

These teams bulked up on depth pieces who will fill particular roles on their clubs, generally keeping the acquisition costs down in the process.

Angels acquire David Murphy, David DeJesus, Shane Victorino — Los Angeles added three veteran platoon candidates to address its need for bats. It was an interesting strategy, but certainly added plenty of experience and clubhouse presence at a reasonable price.

Pirates acquire Joakim Soria, J.A. Happ, Aramis Ramirez, Michael Morse, Joe Blanton — Pittsburgh added veteran rental pieces at the spots that were in need of shoring up, and didn’t have to part with its best young talent to do so.

Cubs acquire Dan Haren, Tommy Hunter — Chicago reportedly pursued some more impactful moves, but ultimately settled for veteran depth that did not require the team to part with significant future assets.

Single Shots

Several buyers made targeted buys of specific assets that, they hope, will fill a specific need.

Nationals acquire Jonathan Papelbon — It took some financial juggling and created a bit of controversy due to the presence of Drew Storen, but ultimately the Nats got a quality late-inning arm at the cost of some solid upper-level pitching depth (Nick Pivetta).

Giants acquire Mike Leake — San Francisco parted with righty Keury Mella and third baseman Adam Duvall to bolster its rotation with the reliable righty.

Twins acquire Kevin Jepsen — Despite its strong position in the standings, this was Minnesota’s only move. But giving up youth for veterans may not have made much sense, and the August trade market could present opportunities if the club stays in the hunt.

Orioles acquire Gerardo Parra — To add the solid Parra, who is currently in the midst of a career year, Baltimore gave up a good pitching prospect in Zach Davies.

Padres acquire Marc Rzepczynski — Do we call the Padres buyers? Their only move was to add a veteran middle-reliever, and they held multiple impending free agents, so it’s hard to give any other label.

Looking To The Future?

Rangers acquire Cole Hamels & Jake Diekman, Sam Dyson — It may not quite be fair to consider Texas here, since the main move was heavily driven by future considerations, but the club did have to beat out more obvious contenders to get Hamels. It took quite a haul, with top prospects Jorge Alfaro, Jake Thompson, and Nick Williams among the pieces moved.

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The dichotomy between buying and selling may no longer hold quite the same meaning that it once did. We saw numerous deals last summer featuring major league players heading in both directions — the David Price, Jon Lester, and John Lackey deals among them. And it’s been widely observed that there are few clubs completely out of contention heading into this year’s deadline.

That could mean that the market will feature more reshuffling of rosters than true selling situations. But with a relative dearth of impact players available for prospect talent, there could also be enticing opportunities for teams willing to give up on the current season to improve in the future.

After all, it’s not as if such deals have disappeared completely. Jeff Samardzija has twice been moved for controllable talent, and could be again. The Red Sox (Andrew Miller to Orioles) and Rangers (Joakim Soria to Tigers) picked up quality young arms last summer, while the Diamondbacks got power-hitting prospect Peter O’Brien in exchange for Martin Prado. Infielder Dee Gordon brought back players who lacked significant major league experience. The Braves received prospects in return for Justin Upton and Craig Kimbrel, while the Phillies acquired minor league depth in deals involving Jimmy Rollins and Marlon Byrd.

All said, then, it’s quite possible that some teams will continue to profile as sellers in the traditional sense. Only a few are obvious, with the Phillies, Brewers, and perhaps the Braves (who’ve already moved most of their short-term assets) leading the way.

Other organizations have somewhat less clarity. Some of those — the Orioles, Blue Jays, and Tigers come to mind — have seemingly made clear that they have no such intentions, at least at present. We’ll define a true “seller” as a team that is looking to acquire pre-major league talent in exchange for veteran assets.

With that understanding, and excluding the teams already mentioned above, let’s see what the consensus is among MLBTR readers. Which of the following teams should consider themselves traditional trade deadline sellers over the rest of the month of July? Pick as many as you think apply.

The original version of the poll mistakenly did not permit multiple selections. Apologies to all those who voted.