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Soto Bidding Could Approach $700MM

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As the Juan Soto decision nears, the expected contract seemingly continues to climb. Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that the price could push to $700MM. Heyman suggests that the Mets, Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays may all be near that mark. The Dodgers are also a finalist, but various reports have put them as the least likely of the quintet to land him.

On Tuesday, The Athletic reported that multiple teams had made offers at or above $600MM. Agent Scott Boras said at the time that Soto had begun to narrow the field, though he didn’t specify a timetable for his decision. Most reports indicate he’s likely to sign by the end of next week’s Winter Meetings, perhaps as soon as this weekend.

According to Heyman, teams have continued to adjust their offers in recent days. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reported last night that the Red Sox were hoping for a final meeting with Soto’s camp to get the outfielder to name the specific price at which he’d put pen to paper. It’s not clear if Soto would grant any team that sit-down.

Shohei Ohtani’s deal was initially reported as a 10-year, $700MM contract. The extreme nature of the deferrals in the Ohtani deal, which were reported a few days after he announced he was signing with the Dodgers, dramatically reduced the net present value. MLB valued the contract around $461MM for luxury tax purposes. That’s still an all-time record. Soto was unquestionably going to beat $461MM and widely expected to go well beyond $500MM. (MLBTR predicted a 13-year, $600MM contract at the beginning of the offseason.) Getting to $700MM without deferrals would shatter prior contractual precedents.

Ohtani’s $46.06MM annual salary — again adjusting for deferrals — is the record for average annual value. Bryce Harper’s 13-year contract is the longest free agent deal in history. Soto would likely need to break both records to get to $700MM — potentially on a 14-year deal at $50MM annually. It shouldn’t be much longer before we learn if the market will go to those heights.

Mets Sign Edward Olivares To Minor League Deal

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The Mets announced this evening that they’ve signed outfielder Edward Olivares to a minor league deal with an invite to MLB Spring Training. New York also confirmed their previously reported deals to bring outfielder Alex Ramírez and reliever Grant Hartwig back on non-roster pacts.

Olivares is the lone new acquisition of that trio. The righty-hitting outfielder has played for the Padres, Royals and Pirates over an MLB career spanning parts of five seasons. Almost half of his playing time came in 2023, when he appeared in 107 games for Kansas City. The Venezuelan outfielder hit .263/.317/.452 with 12 homers and 11 stolen bases over 385 plate appearances.

Despite the reasonable numbers, the Royals traded Olivares to Pittsburgh last winter. K.C.’s skepticism that he’d repeat his ’23 production was borne out. Olivares had a rough 55-game stint with the Bucs, hitting .224/.291/.333 with five homers. He was part of a very weak right field rotation until the Pirates designated him for assignment in early August. The Bucs hoped that deadline pickup Bryan De La Cruz would fix the position, but he also underperformed and was non-tendered last month.

Olivares has intermittently flashed intriguing physical tools. He has slightly above-average contact skills and owns a .254/.306/.407 batting line in nearly 1000 plate appearances. Olivares is a solid runner with plus arm strength. Despite solid athleticism, he grades as a below-average defender in the corners. He’ll vie for a rotational role in Carlos Mendoza’s outfield.

Mets Acquire Sean Harney From Rays

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The Rays announced that they have sent minor league right-hander Sean Harney to the Mets in exchange for international bonus pool money. The exact amount of bonus pool space heading to the Rays hasn’t yet been reported, but Will Sammon of The Athletic (X link) reports that this it’s part of the 2024 pool.

Under baseball’s international bonus pool system, each team has a hard-capped limit on how much they can spend on international amateurs each year. Broadly speaking, the big-spending teams get smaller pools and the smaller-market clubs gets more. Teams that don’t receive revenue sharing can also have their pool size reduced by signing players who rejected qualifying offers. A team is allowed to increase the size of its pool via trade, though they can only go to 60% beyond their initial allotment.

That pool space is normally used to sign teenagers out of countries like the Dominican Republic and Venezuela, but this winter as a more notable player in the mix: Japanese hurler Roki Sasaki. Since he is going to be posted ahead of his 25th birthday, having just turned 23, he will be considered an amateur. Therefore, he will need to be signed within the international bonus system. That’s been a key storyline this winter so many fans might immediately connect this deal to Sasaki, but this trade is unrelated. It doesn’t signal that the Mets are uninterested in signing Sasaki nor that the Rays feel they have a shot at him. Sasaki has not yet been posted and all reports have suggested he will be available as part of the 2025 international signing period.

Speculatively speaking, it’s possible that the Mets didn’t use all of their 2024 pool money because they were waiting to see exactly when Sasaki would be posted. If he were available in the 2024 period, it would be good to have a bit of powder dry for that, but that won’t be happening. The 2024 international spending period ends very soon, on December 15, with the 2025 international period starting up on January 15 of next year.

With just a few days left to use that pool space, it seems the Mets didn’t have any plans for it and would rather have Harney. The Rays, meanwhile, must have some sort of idea for a late international signing. It’s unclear what those plans are but they seemingly felt like giving up Harney was worth it for that extra pool space, which they only have a few days to make use of.

Harney, 26, was selected by the Rays in the eighth round of the 2022 draft. Since then, he has been working his way up the minor league ladder, mostly in relief but with a few starts. He has thrown 124 2/3 innings on the farm, not having reached the Triple-A level yet. He has allowed 3.90 earned runs per nine innings, striking out 24% of batters faced while walking 8.5%.

Clay Holmes Believed To Be Nearing Decision

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Free agent right-hander Clay Holmes appears close to making a decision on his next team, reports Jayson Stark of The Athletic. Teams that have been in talks with the former Yankees closer have gotten the impression that he’s on the verge of choosing among several offers, per Stark, who adds that Holmes has been negotiating with “a long list of contending clubs.”

Holmes, 32 in April, spent the past three and a half seasons in the Bronx, combining for 217 2/3 innings of 2.69 ERA ball. He fanned 26.6% of his opponents and limited walks at a sharp 7.7% clip along the way. Holmes established himself as one of the game’s premier ground-ball pitchers in that time as well, leaning on a sizzling sinker that averages 96.5 mph to induce grounders at a nearly 68% clip.

While Holmes broke out as a reliever in the Bronx, however, there are reportedly several teams that have interest in bringing him aboard as a starting pitcher. Which role he prefers is surely something Holmes has weighed extensively in free agency — particularly if most of the clubs he’s spoken to are expected contenders. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported last month that the Mets are among the teams interested in seeing Holmes in the rotation. The Athletic’s Matt Gelb reported just a couple days ago that the Phillies are interested in Holmes in a relief role. While free agency typically boils down to the “money talks” adage, if Holmes had similar offers from a pair of contending clubs who want to use him in different roles, that’d add another layer to the decision process.

In 2024, Holmes tossed 63 innings of 3.14 ERA ball with a 25.1% strikeout rate, 8.1% walk rate and 65% ground-ball rate. He piled up 30 saves, bringing his career total to 74, but also ceded ninth-inning work to teammate Luke Weaver late in the season due to an alarming — and highly out of character — 13 blown saves on the year. He pitched quite well in 13 postseason appearances, logging a 2.25 ERA, 25% strikeout rate, 10.4% walk rate and 53.6% grounder rate in a dozen innings. Holmes was frequently thrust into leverage spots, evidenced by a 3-1 record and five holds over the course of those 13 playoff outings.

Brett Baty Drawing Trade Interest

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Mets third baseman Brett Baty is drawing trade interest around the league, and the front office is at least listening to offers on the former top prospect, reports Mike Puma of the New York Post. Baty isn’t being actively shopped but isn’t off limits either, making him an option for clubs seeking affordable (salary-wise) help at the hot corner.

Baty has long looked like a logical trade candidate. He made our list of the top offseason trade candidates heading into the winter, due largely to the emergence of Mark Vientos at third base and the possibility of the Mets re-signing Pete Alonso. In a scenario where Alonso signs elsewhere and Vientos moves across the diamond to first base, there’d still be a path for Baty to claim the everyday gig at the hot corner, but he’s stumbled multiple times when afforded that opportunity in recent seasons. Mets fans will want to check out Puma’s piece for in-depth quotes from scouts around the league, a couple of whom feel Baty is a small adjustment or two away from cementing himself as a big league regular.

Of course, scouting opinions like that only underscore that other teams would love to get their hands on the still-25-year-old Baty. The former No. 12 overall pick (2019) and longtime top prospect has mustered only a .215/.282/.325 line in his first 602 MLB plate appearances, although those have been spread across three seasons. Baty is a .273/.368/.531 hitter in 416 Triple-A plate appearances and has shown improving strike zone awareness even in the majors. He walked at a 9.4% clip last year and cut his strikeout rate from 28% in 2023 down to 24.6% in 2024. Baty fanned in 21.2% of his Triple-A plate appearances and walked at a 12.4% clip in 2024.

Baty still has a minor league option remaining, and he’s under club control for at least another five seasons. That lessens any urgency to deal him, but with the Mets looking to add multiple starting pitchers — even after signing Frankie Montas — there’s a pretty obvious path to using Baty as a trade chip as well.

The Mets’ focus is clearly on Juan Soto at the moment, but the manner in which that market plays out could also impact Baty’s future in Queens. If the Mets don’t reel in Soto, they could become more aggressive on Alonso, Willy Adames or Alex Bregman, any of which would further impede Baty’s path to the Citi Field. Baty has seen some time at second base and in left field, but his natural and likely best position is at third base.

The Blue Jays, Astros, Angels, Mariners, Tigers, Royals and Brewers are among the teams who could look for third base help on the trade market in the weeks to come. (The Yankees could, too, though it’d be more surprising to see a trade of a notable prospect between the two New York teams.) The Mariners’ young starting pitching is the envy of most major league clubs, but president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto now somewhat famously called trading one of his starters “Plan Z” on the offseason to-do list in late September.

Red Sox Hoping For Additional Meeting With Soto

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By this time next week, there’s a good chance Juan Soto will have picked his destination. As the star outfielder weighs multiple offers at or above $600MM, the top of the market waits.

At least one team is hoping for another sit-down with Soto and agent Scott Boras. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports that Red Sox’s brass has expressed interest in another meeting at which Soto’s camp would name the price necessary to get a deal done. That’s an effort to avoid being unknowingly outbid at the end.

It seems the Sox are worried about the Mets in particular. Speier writes that Sox’s brass has heard rumors that Mets’ owner Steve Cohen has promised Boras that he’d beat the best offer made by any other team by $50MM. To be clear, Speier is not reporting on the veracity of that rumor itself. Speier is neither confirming nor denying that Cohen made such offer. The Globe’s report only mentions that the Sox are concerned enough that the rumor might be true that they’re hopeful of getting Soto and Boras to name a specific price.

It’s not clear if Boras and Soto have any interest in doing so. There’s value for Soto in playing teams’ uncertainties against each other. Relaying the specifics of every offer to each team in the race would eventually result in a highest bidder, but it’d also limit the possibility that one club goes well beyond whatever is on the table from the others.

There have seemingly been five legitimate suitors for Soto: the Mets, Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox and Dodgers. Various reports have cast the Dodgers as a long shot. The general view is that Los Angeles entered the mix mostly to gauge whether Soto’s market might not materialize quite the way he’d envisioned. With multiple teams putting $600MM+ offers out there, that hasn’t been the case. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand wrote last night that the Dodgers were unlikely to land him.

Speier confirms that the Red Sox recently upped their offer to $600MM. The Athletic reported on Tuesday that every team that still had a chance at Soto had hit or topped that mark. (That’s not necessarily a declaration that all five teams mentioned above had offered $600MM+, as it’s possible he has privately narrowed the field to exclude one or more of them.) Most observers still expect it to come down to one of the New York franchises, though the Sox and Jays have seemingly made full-fledged pushes to get themselves in the conversation.

One big spender that made little effort on Soto: the Phillies. Matt Gelb of the Athletic reports that Philadelphia brass never met with his camp. While the Phils haven’t shied away from big-ticket free agent pursuits, it seems they never believed they had a realistic chance to land Soto. Philadelphia owner John Middleton said a month ago that he felt they’d merely be used to drive up the bidding for Soto to sign with one of the New York teams (link via Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer). Whether or not that would’ve been the case, Gelb writes that the Phillies felt it best to prioritize other avenues they found more realistic.

Everson Pereira Among Players Eligible For Fourth Option Year

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Yankees outfielder Everson Pereira and infielder Jorbit Vivas and Mets right-hander Max Kranick are eligible for a fourth option year, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post. They join Red Sox right-hander Cooper Criswell in that regard; there’ll likely be additional such reports throughout the offseason.

After a player is added to the 40-man roster, they can typically be assigned to the minors in three additional seasons. If a player who is on the 40-man spends at least 20 days in the minors during a season, that subtracts one of those years. In certain circumstances, teams are allowed to option a player for a fourth season.

A player is eligible for a fourth option if they exhaust their three option years before they’ve played five professional seasons. MLB defines a professional season as one in which a player spent at least 90 days on an MLB or minor league active roster. Many players will spend a few years with a minor league affiliate before they’re added to a 40-man roster. As those count as professional seasons but are not option years, most players reach five seasons prior to running out of options.

Pereira and Vivas were each initially added to their clubs’ 40-man rosters during the 2021-22 offseason. They’ve both been optioned in each of the last three years. Neither Pereira nor Vivas appeared in a full “professional season” before 2021, however. Both players were at complexes or short-season affiliates between 2017-19, so neither got to 90 days on a minor league roster in any of those years. The minor league schedule was canceled in 2020 and did not count as a professional season. Vivas has logged four professional seasons (2021-24), while Pereira didn’t log a full minor league campaign until ’22.

Kranick first made it onto a 40-man roster after 2020. He’d already accrued two professional seasons at that point. He picked up a third in ’21 but spent almost all of the 2022-23 campaigns on the injured list. Kranick battled forearm issues and eventually underwent Tommy John surgery. He returned to health this year, his fourth professional season.

The extra option means these players can be sent back to the minors without landing on waivers. Vivas and Kranick could be on the 40-man roster bubble anyways. The extra option is most relevant with regards to Pereira, a former top prospect who underwent elbow surgery last June. If the Yankees had to decide between carrying him on the MLB roster or putting him on waivers, there’s a good chance they’d have opted for the latter route coming out of Spring Training. They’ll instead be able to send him back to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre to evaluate him for one more year.

Mets Sign Frankie Montas

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The Mets announced they have signed right-hander Frankie Montas to a two-year deal that contains an opt-out clause for Montas following the 2025 season. The Boras Corporation client will reportedly earn $17MM in both the 2025 and 2026 seasons for a $34MM guarantee.

Montas returns to the Big Apple after an injury-plagued stint with the Yankees during the 2022-23 seasons.  The Yankees acquired Montas from the A’s at the 2022 trade deadline when Montas was still trying to work through some shoulder discomfort, and his ill-fated attempt to pitch through the pain led to a 6.35 ERA over 39 2/3 innings during the remainder of the 2022 campaign.  Montas then required labrum surgery the following February that cost him almost all of the 2023 season, as he returned to pitch 1 1/3 innings in one game at the very end of September.

The Reds bet that Montas would be able to bounce back when healthy, and last January signed the righty to a one-year deal that ended up being worth $16MM — $14MM in guaranteed salary, and then a $2MM buyout once Montas declined his end of a mutual option for the 2025 season.  Perhaps showing the after-effects of his long layoff, Montas had a 4.84 ERA over 150 2/3 combined innings with Cincinnati and Milwaukee last season, as the Reds sent Montas to the Brewers last July in another deadline trade.

Apart from a minimal 15-day IL stint due to a forearm contusion, Montas was pretty healthy in his comeback year, and the 150 2/3 innings represents the second-highest workload of his nine Major League seasons.  As the 4.84 ERA might imply, however, Montas (who turns 32 in March) ran into some struggles.  His 22.6% strikeout rate was slightly below the league average, and he surrendered a lot of walks and a lot of hard contact.

Montas’ 14.8% home run rate was the highest of his career, and he actually allowed more homers after leaving the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark for the more neutral American Family Field.  His fastball velocity dropped from 96.1mph to 95.6mph, which isn’t bad for a pitcher returning from a yearlong absence, but the larger issue was Montas’ sinker was the only effective pitch in his arsenal.  It is worth noting that Montas’ velocity and strikeout rate did increase after the trade to the Brewers, so another change of scenery might now more fully get him back to his pre-surgery form.

MLBTR ranked Montas 27th on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, and his $34MM guarantee significantly tops our prediction of a two-year, $22MM contract.  The higher price could reflect the ever-rising price of pitching, and the Mets and other teams might have put a greater premium on Montas’ ability to eat innings.

The Mets in particular had a glaring need for rotation help, as Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, and Jose Quintana are all free agents.  Montas now fills one of those holes in the pitching staff, and he’ll join Kodai Senga, David Peterson, Tylor Megill, and (if healthy) Paul Blackburn as the current starting five, though more additions are surely still to come this winter.

Much of the buzz surrounding the Mets this offseason has naturally focused on their courtship of Juan Soto, but New York has also been linked to such pitchers as Roki Sasaki and trade candidate Garrett Crochet.  There has been speculation that the Amazins could also pursue some of the top names on the pitching market, though there hasn’t been any public news on that front to date.

It could be that the Mets are holding off on other big-ticket pursuits until Soto’s situation is resolved, and Montas’ contract represents a fairly less-expensive foray into the free agent market that helps address the club’s chief need for pitching.  For now, the Montas contract resembles the two-year, $28MM deal (also with an opt-out) that Manaea signed last winter, as president of baseball operations David Stearns has thus far stuck to his strategy of inking starters to shorter-term contracts.  Montas is surely hoping that he can follow Manaea’s path of delivering a stronger full season, and then returning to free agency next year to land a lengthier and pricier contract.

The $17MM average annual value of Montas’ contract still leaves New York with plenty of space before it hits the $241MM luxury tax threshold, as RosterResource projects the club’s tax number at roughly $189.7MM.  Obviously avoiding the tax hasn’t been a priority in the Steve Cohen era and signing Soto to a record contract would alone put the Mets at or near the threshold before any other moves are made.  Just in case Soto does sign elsewhere, however, a world exists where the Mets could be aggressive this winter and still reset their tax situation entirely, which would allow the Mets to enjoy more financial flexibility (and a smaller overall tax bill) going forward.

It is perhaps noteworthy that Boras represents both Soto and Montas, and it seems likely that Boras and Stearns have discussed several of the agent’s many clients during their conversations this offseason.  Montas is already the third Boras-represented pitcher to sign a new contract this winter, after Blake Snell’s five-year, $182MM deal with the Dodgers and Yusei Kikuchi’s three-year, $63MM pact with the Angels.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan (X link) was the first to report the signing and the contract terms.  Jon Heyman of the New York Post (via X) added the detail about the opt-out clause, and the specific breakdown of Montas’ salaries over the two seasons.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Michael Soroka Drawing More Interest As Starter Than Reliever

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Michael Soroka lost his spot in the lowly White Sox rotation in mid-May after posting a 6.39 ERA in nine starts. He was moved to the bullpen and proceeded to go on an absolute tear, prompting some thought that he could draw a surprisingly strong contract in free agency as a reliever this winter. While some clubs have indeed expressed interest in Soroka as a bullpen option, he’s drawn more interest as a starting pitcher through the early stages of the offseason, according to Will Sammon, Katie Woo and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.

The Mets are among the teams with interest, per the report, which adds that the only teams viewing Soroka as a reliever are those that already have largely full rotations. Few clubs can make that claim, though perhaps the Mariners, Rays, Phillies or Astros could view Soroka as a bullpen option (speaking from a purely speculative standpoint).

Those who didn’t closely follow Soroka’s season may not find the notion of him returning to a starting role all that surprising or interesting. He has, after all, worked primarily as a starter throughout his professional career. Prior to a staggeringly unfortunate run of injuries in Atlanta, the former top prospect looked to be emerging as a high-end rotation piece with the Braves. From 2018-19, he pitched 200 1/3 innings with a 2.79 ERA, 20% strikeout rate and 5.9% walk rate.

Since that time, Soroka has had a pair of Achilles tendon tears and three separate IL stints related to shoulder issues — including a strain that sidelined him for two months this past season. He’s pitched only 125 2/3 innings over the past five seasons. That lack of durability is another reason to consider him for a relief role, but Soroka did toss 87 2/3 innings this past season, creating at least some optimism that maybe he could hold up better than in prior years.

The broader reason for his appeal in the bullpen was simply the manner in which he performed there in 2024, however. Soroka had only three professional relief appearances heading into 2024. He made 16 relief appearances for the South Siders this past season, and the results were eye-popping. As I wrote on our Top 50 Free Agent list back in early November:

Beginning with a four-inning long relief showing at Yankee Stadium, Soroka punched out seven batters. He went on to fan 15 in 9 1/3 frames over his first three relief outings. From May 18 through season’s end, Soroka pitched to a 2.75 ERA and struck out a gargantuan 39% of his opponents. That includes a two-month absence due to a shoulder strain, but Soroka returned in late September averaging an improved 94.5 mph on his heater and closed out the season with 7 1/3 shutout innings and a 13-to-2 K/BB ratio.

Soroka still didn’t have good command in relief. He issued a walk to 13% of his opponents. That’s going to give plenty of interested teams pause. Still, few relievers can pile up strikeouts at such an overwhelming level over any kind of prolonged sample. Sixty punchouts in 36 innings is tough to overlook.

That said, it’s understandable if teams are dreaming on sustaining some of that production and stretching it out over a larger role. Soroka is still only 27 and won’t turn 28 until next August. He’s considerably younger than the standard free agent — particularly relative to starting pitchers. It’s also been a bull market for starters in the early stages of free agency, with Matthew Boyd and Frankie Montas in particular exceeding most expectations with the contracts they signed. Montas posted a 4.84 ERA with an exactly league-average 22.6% strikeout rate and a 10.1% walk rate in 150 2/3 innings. He still commanded two years and $34MM with an opt-out. Plus velocity and a late-season strikeout surge notwithstanding, it was a notable contract for a pitcher coming off a decidedly pedestrian season.

Given the strong early market for starters, some clubs might be inclined to put forth a lower-AAV offer to Soroka in hopes of catching lightning in a bottle for their starting staff, knowing the bullpen route is there as a fallback option. The Mets are apparently included in that bunch, and Soroka seems to fit the mold of pitcher that president of baseball operations David Stearns has targeted since joining the Mets: a formerly high-profile arm with some recently demonstrated upside who’s (presumably) available on a short-term deal.

MLBTR Podcast: Blake Snell, Dodger Fatigue, And The Simmering Hot Stove

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • What would the Pirates have to give to the Red Sox to get Triston Casas? (48:20)
  • Why is Cody Bellinger’s deal so tough for the Cubs to trade? (54:15)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

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