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Heyman’s Latest: Blue Jays, Wieters, Gordon, Yost, Cespedes

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Here’s the latest from CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman:

  • Executives throughout the game hold new Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro in high regard, and they’re surprised that GM Alex Anthopoulos would have the fortitude to walk away from a five-year extension when there don’t seem to be any other similar jobs out there. They do note, however, that the deliberative Shapiro and the fast-thinking Anthopoulos seemed like they might not work together well. The course of their discussions following Shapiro’s hire might demonstrate why — Heyman writes that Shapiro felt like he was being appropriately supportive, while the overworked Anthopoulos might have needed a little more encouragement. With Anthopoulos gone, Shapiro will likely hire assistant GM Tony La Cava, who Shapiro once worked with in Cleveland, as interim GM. La Cava and Indians exec Ross Atkins could be candidates for the permanent position. Manager John Gibbons, meanwhile, will likely return next season.
  • There’s a “decent chance” the Orioles will extend a qualifying offer to Matt Wieters. If they do, they’ll hope he doesn’t accept it, but they might think there’s a good chance he doesn’t, given that Scott Boras is his agent.
  • The Royals would like to keep Alex Gordon and could offer him a four-year deal, although Gordon might be able to get five from another team. The Cubs, White Sox, Astros and Orioles are among the many teams that could be interested.
  • The Royals appear likely to look for an outfielder and a pitcher this winter, although they know they don’t have a chance of re-signing Johnny Cueto. They could also extend the contract of manager Ned Yost after the season, and GM Dayton Moore’s contract could also be a priority. Both are signed through 2016.
  • The Mets appear increasingly likely to allow Yoenis Cespedes to depart via free agency, Heyman writes. The Mets could then focus on spending their available funds on keeping their young pitchers.

NL Notes: Young, Honeycutt, Green, Phillies

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The Dodgers nearly signed pitcher Chris Young to a minor league deal last offseason, but he signed a $675K big-league deal with the Royals instead and is now set to start Game 4 of the World Series, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports notes. Young had an effective regular season and has been even better thus far in the playoffs. The extremely cheap signing has been a boon for the Royals and might have been one for the Dodgers as well, Morosi says, arguing that it’s strange the Royals were able to get him so cheaply after he pitched 165 innings with a 3.65 ERA in 2014. As Morosi notes, Young’s 86-MPH fastball likely had something to do with that. I’d add that Young’s unimpressive 2014 peripherals (5.9 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 22.3% ground ball rate) were also likely a factor. Here’s more from the National League.

  • The Dodgers are negotiating with pitching coach Rick Honeycutt on a multi-year contract to keep him with the team, MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick writes. There’s a possibility Honeycutt could join departing Dodgers manager Don Mattingly with the Marlins, but Honeycutt has been with the Dodgers through several managerial changes, and keeping him would help the organization maintain “continuity” for the team as it chooses Mattingly’s successor.
  • The process of interviewing for a big-league managerial position is a grueling one, new Padres manager Andy Green tells Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune. “The first interview, I spent about 2 1/2 hours with one group, then about 2 1/2 hours with another group. They flew me back in, and I spent 14 hours, from 9 a.m. to 11 p.m. It was a relentless barrage of people,” says Green. “Then they flew in a couple days ago, A.J. [Preller] and Josh Stein, met my family. After my wife and kids went to bed, they fired off three more hours of questions. So they did their due diligence.” Green also shares his thoughts regarding dealing with expectations as a big-league manager, noting that building a winning team requires putting a process in place, and that having expectations in and of itself does little to help a team reach its goals.
  • The Mets’ rise is bad news for the Phillies, in that the Mets’ strong core of starting pitching is set to be around for awhile, Mike Sielski of the Inquirer writes. But the Phillies won’t have the same payroll restrictions the Mets have had, Sielski notes, so it shouldn’t take the Phillies as long as it took the Mets to turn what’s already a good Phillies collection of young talent into a winning team.

Latest On Dodgers’ Managerial Search

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The Dodgers have parted ways with manager Don Mattingly in what appears to be a mutually agreeable divorce. That leaves the organization searching for a new skipper, marking an important hire for president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman. We’ll keep tabs on the hiring process right here:

  • The Dodgers will interview Darin Erstad for the position, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets. Erstad currently serves as the head coach at the University of Nebraska. While it would be unusual for a big league club to hire a skipper directly out of the college ranks, Erstad was a long-time major leaguer.
  • Padres bench coach Dave Roberts, who was a finalist in the Mariners’ managerial search, will interview for the Dodgers, tweets ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick. Roberts, of course, had a 10-year playing career as an outfielder and stole one of the most famous bases in recent history in the 2004 ALCS. He’s been coaching for the Padres since 2011, beginning as a first-base coach.
  • Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets that he’s spoken to a number of people in the past day who said they’d be stunned if anyone other than Kapler is named manager in Los Angeles.

Earlier Updates

  • Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angeles tweets that he’s hearing Mets bench coach Bob Geren will be in the mix for the Dodgers’ opening. Geren, 54, managed the Athletics from 2007-11, so Dodgers GM Farhan Zaidi is plenty familiar with him.
  • Dodgers director of player development Gabe Kapler is a “serious frontrunner” for the job, tweets Buster Olney of ESPN.com, who acknowledges that the process is only just beginning. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported earlier this morning (via Twitter) that Kapler was considered a candidate. While he only has minimal managerial experience in the low minors, Kapler is a highly respected former player who has long been viewed as a budding managerial prospect.
  • Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times lists some names to keep an eye on, with Kapler among them. Other strong possibilities to come under consideration by the Dodgers, per Shaikin, include former Rays and current Cubs bench coach Dave Martinez, former Padres skipper Bud Black, current Dodgers bench coach Tim Wallach, and recently-hired Dodgers third base coach Ron Roenicke.

East Notes: Anthopoulos, Nats, Desmond, Montero, Cespedes, Gordon

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Blue Jays ownership is to blame for the team’s surprising separation with former GM Alex Anthopoulos, argues Bruce Arthur of the Toronto Star. New president Mark Shapiro “said he strongly disagreed with some of the deadline choices that sent prospects out,” Arthur reports, and indications are that he took the job in part because he is interested in increasing his involvement in personnel decisions. (The club made several swaps, most notable shipping out young pitching talent to acquire David Price and Troy Tulowitzki.) Rogers Communications, the club’s ownership group, initially offered Anthopoulos only a one-year contract with an option, says Arthur, and though the offer ultimately was bumped to a five-year term, that seemingly set the stage for the departure of Anthopoulos. Meanwhile, the new free agent executive took a conciliatory tack on his way out, saying, “I just didn’t feel like this was the right fit for me going forward.”

Here’s more from Toronto and some other eastern division clubs:

  • Writing for the National Post, Andrew Stoeten takes rather a different perspective on the Blue Jays’ front office changes. He suggests that it’s a valid criticism that Anthopoulos gave up too much young talent over the summer, even if the immediate results were good. More broadly, there’s no reason in particular to think Anthopoulos is uniquely irreplaceable, Stoeten argues.
  • Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post takes a look at an interesting offseason for the Nationals. As he explains, the club could probably just add some bullpen pieces and a left-handed-hitting, center field-capable fourth outfielder and call it a day. That wouldn’t be perfect, but it should be workable enough, and it may be what the team had hoped and expected to be looking at heading into 2015. But a terribly disappointing campaign changes the equation somewhat. Svrluga says that the organization has pegged a $175MM overall annual operations budget, a number which includes player salaries but would also include additional spending in other areas (he cites various front office upgrades, though presumably it might also involve international spending or other speculative investments). With various big-money players are coming off of the books, Svrluga argues at least some of their salaries ought to be reallocated to new acquisitions. Upgrading over Wilson Ramos at catcher should be considered, he argues, and the team must decide whether to trade Yunel Escobar (possibly for bullpen help) and how much trust to put in Michael Taylor.
  • Outgoing Nationals shortstop Ian Desmond figures to draw strong interest from the Mets, people around the game are telling Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (as part of a broader notes column). Heyman says he’s expecting a “robust” market for Desmond after a late-season return to form, and also notes the Mariners, Padres, White Sox, and Twins as plausible landing spots.
  • It’s easy to forget about righty Rafael Montero given the success of the Mets’ other arms, but Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes that the team hasn’t. New York expects Montero to be ready to go this spring after dealing with shoulder issues all year, and Sherman notes that he’ll at least represent a solid depth piece in the near-term if he can stay healthy. Of course, with Zack Wheeler also set to return next summer and Steven Matz now looking like he’ll command a rotation spot for years to come, Montero could ultimately factor as a trade chip.
  • Sherman also takes a crack at assessing the in-season changes to the future free agent market of Mets outfielder Yoenis Cespedes. The Red Sox offered him a five-year deal at about $75MM when he was with the club, says Sherman, and might have considered going to the Hunter Pence range (5/$90MM). Now, says Sherman, Cespedes’s future valuation has swung wildly. Before his mid-season swap to New York, he says, Cespedes was generally expected to receive a deal that might not have reached $100MM. The outfielder pushed his ceiling to the six-year, $150MM range after a blistering couple of months, per Sherman, but now some executives feel a tepid few weeks could drop him shy of nine figures. For what it’s worth, my own take is that Cespedes’s earning capacity has probably not moved quite so violently; while it’s obviously shifted, I’d have pegged him at a higher mid-season expectation and still believe he’ll easily clear the $100MM barrier this offseason.
  • The Red Sox could be a surprise contender to add outfielder Alex Gordon via free agency, Sherman writes. While Boston could move forward with its internal options in the outfield, rival executives see a scenario where the team tries to utilize the resurgent Jackie Bradley Jr. as a trade piece to add a pitcher while simultaneously locking up Gordon. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe analyzes the concept, explaining that Fenway Park has seemed uniquely capable of undermining otherwise strong defenders’ abilities in left field. As Sherman suggests, Gordon could be added with the idea of deploying him in right, and Speier does add that Castillo looked good in limited action in left, so there’s some hypothetical plausibility but also some tough questions to be answered before pursuing that strategy.

List Of 2016 Super Two Qualifiers

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Presented below is the list of players who have qualified for Super Two status for arbitration purposes this year. (Service time in parentheses.) As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently tweeted, the service time cutoff is 2.130. You can find arbitration salary projections for these players right here.

Click here to read more about how the Super Two concept works. Note that, as the link shows, the originally projected service time cutoff moved down as things played out over the course of the season. That brought some notable names into early arbitration qualification — namely, Calhoun and Rendon — which could have a big impact on their earning power in potential extension scenarios.

It’s also important to bear in mind that several of the players listed above have already agreed to long-term extensions: Gyorko, Lagares, and Archer. Notably, the size of the guarantee provided by Archer’s contract is dependent upon his Super Two status. By reaching it (as had been expected), he keeps a $25.5MM overall guarantee. That total would have been reduced to $20MM otherwise.

That contract structure reflects the importance of reaching Super Two status. Doing so not only bumps a player’s salary a year early, but sets a higher floor for future paydays.

World Series Notes: Royals, Mets, Rosters, Drafts

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Very few pundits saw the Mets or (despite being defending AL champs) Royals reaching the Fall Classic, yet both teams are now preparing for Game 1 of the World Series.  Here’s some info on both teams, looking back at how they got to the brink of a championship…

  • It took a while for Dayton Moore’s rebuilding plan to show results, but the Royals GM tells ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick that he sees past mistakes as learning experiences that helped he and the club shape the current winning roster.  Canny trades and free agent signings within the last year were a big part of Kansas City’s success, yet the fact that so many of the Royals are homegrown prospects who have spent years playing together is seen as a positive by manager Ned Yost.  “They came up as a core, and they won championships in Double-A and Triple-A together….Having them experience that over the last five or six years, it just gives them a certain comfort level when you get into this type of position. They know each other. They all have the same goals and the same dreams and the same values. It just makes for a closer team,” Yost said.
  • Over half of the Royals’ ALCS roster didn’t play for the team in last year’s World Series, The Associated Press’ Dave Skretta writes, a somewhat under-the-radar overhaul that mostly focused on adding a lot of new pitchers.
  • Given how both teams looked to rebuild though young talent, it’s no surprise that many former blue-chip prospects are now playing key roles for the Royals and Mets, MLB.com’s Jim Callis notes.  He lists the top 15 players in this World Series based on their original prospect status, with Alex Gordon leading the way.
  • Game 1 will fall almost exactly five years after the day Sandy Alderson was hired as the Mets’ GM, and ESPN’s Adam Rubin looks at the tough road Alderson had to navigate, especially given the financial limitations on the franchise due to the Wilpon family’s losses in the Bernie Madoff scandal.  The Mets’ big deadline trades and the Nationals’ surprising collapse opened the door for this season’s NL East title, and Rubin notes that Alderson also laid groundwork in the form of the Zack Wheeler-for-Carlos Beltran trade in 2011 and the deal that brought Noah Syndergaard and Travis d’Arnaud for R.A. Dickey in early 2013.  Alderson was also helped by several young players drafted under former GM Omar Minaya who are now franchise cornerstones.

East Notes: Marlins, Jennings, Harvey, Red Sox

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After being told he would not retain his job as manager, Dan Jennings was set to return to the Marlins last week to resume GM duties. However, Jennings had questions about his current role and responsibilities that president David Samson couldn’t immediately answer, as Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes.  Samson has asked Jennings to stay home while he discusses the situation with owner Jeffrey Loria.  The Marlins haven’t pulled their offer for Jennings to return as GM, Jackson writes, and he and Loria are expected to talk in the coming days.  Jennings might have less influence in the front office than he did before, and that’s a result of Loria “listening to more voices.”  In addition to president/baseball operations Michael Hill, farm system chief Marc Delpiano and execs Mike Berger and Jeff McAvoy also have sway.

Here’s more out of the East divisions..

  • More from Jackson, who writes that the Marlins’ payroll of $68MM “is expected to rise slightly” in 2016.  In 2015, Miami had the lowest payroll in baseball.
  • With whispers that the Mets will listen this winter on offers for their top three starters, Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald writes that it’s “not impossible” that New Englander Matt Harvey will end up in the Red Sox’s rotation next season.  Of course, there was more speculation surrounding Harvey’s Mets future during the innings-limit controversy and it’s hard to picture a deal happening as he gets set to take the hill in Game 1 of the World Series.
  • Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times opines that it’s fair to wonder if Andrew Friedman erred in not bringing Joe Maddon to the Dodgers after both men left the Rays.  The Dodgers, of course, are searching for their next manager after parting ways with Don Mattingly.

Cafardo On Murphy, Price, Davis, Cueto

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In today’s column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe spoke with eight major league officials about the players trending up and trending down as free agency approaches.  It probably won’t surprise you to learn that the list of players trending in the right direction starts with Mets second baseman Daniel Murphy.

“Obviously, he’s not going to be as hot as he’s been in the postseason, but he plays positions where his power plays well,” an American League GM told Cafardo. “There are teams like the Dodgers and Yankees who need a second baseman. Others, like the Angels, need a third baseman, where he also plays. He’s going to be sought-after and get a five-year deal at around $75MM. Maybe more.”

Murphy, who can also play at first base, would also have appeal for the attractive to the Orioles, Astros, Padres, and Tigers, Cafardo writes.

Here’s more from today’s column..

  • The feeling is that a seven-year, $210MM deal for David Price would be fair, Cafardo writes, though some are concerned that Price won’t live up to that kind of deal unless he goes somewhere that he’s comfortable. The incumbent Blue Jays could be that place, but the Dodgers, Cardinals, and Cubs are also listed as possibilities.  Price, 30, pitched to a 2.45 ERA with 9.2 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 in 32 regular season starts for the Tigers and Blue Jays this past season.
  • The group of eight anonymous scouts, managers, and GMs polled by Cafardo would not want to give Orioles bopper Chris Davis more than a five-year deal.  Of course, a team out there very well could. “In the heat of the negotiations and fearing someone else will get him, this will likely get beyond what everybody wants. Scott Boras is the agent, so we may be looking at seven years,” one scout remarked.  Recently, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes profiled the two-time home run king and estimated that he’ll be in line for a six-year, $144MM pact.
  • Johnny Cueto had a rough second half after being traded to the Royals and one National League GM told Cafardo that a “few teams have scratched him off their list.”  Still, that GM estimates that Cueto can net a Jon Lester-type $155MM deal.  Recently, we learned that the Red Sox are mulling a serious push for Cueto.  The Marlins also like Cueto, but financial constraints will probably hold them back in that pursuit.
  • One GM told Cafardo that he wouldn’t give Royals outfielder Alex Gordon anything more than a three-year deal at $36MM-$38MM.  In addition to KC, Cafardo recently listed the Indians, Orioles, Mets, Tigers, and possibly the Red Sox as potential fits.
  • Nationals hurler Jordan Zimmermann didn’t have a great season, but he was listed by Cafardo as a player whose arrow is pointing upwards.  One NL scout praised Zimmermann’s work ethic and toughness.  At the end of the regular season, Zimmermann sounded like a player who knows that he’ll be changing teams.
  • One AL GM envisions Blue Jays pitcher Marco Estrada attracting attention from “six or seven teams” who could offer up a “four- or five-year deal in the $12MM-$15MM [per year] range.”  Last month, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk checked in on Estrada’s free agent stock.  The right-hander posted a 3.13 ERA with 6.5 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 across 28 starts and six relief appearances in 2015.
  • Cafardo’s panel indicated that Scott Kazmir could get a three-year deal this offseason, but at a reduced rate because of his struggles with the Astros down the stretch.  The group of eight officials sees Kazmir getting $10-$12MM AAV over a three year period.  The Tigers are among the clubs with interest in the veteran left-hander, though Kazmir has also expressed a desire to return to Houston.
  • At least two teams have their top advisers and scouts looking at Rich Hill’s last four starts with the Red Sox to see if his emergence in 2015 is for real.  One AL scout who has done his homework on the left-hander praised the hurler for his confidence.
  • Cafardo identified the Braves, Dodgers, Rays, Astros, and Mariners as teams that could have interest in Orioles catcher Matt Wieters.  Of course, his market will be impacted by whether or not he receives a qualifying offer.  The Rangers will be among the teams with interest, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com, but only if he does come with a QO attached.  In a recent MLBTR poll, 60% of readers said that the O’s should give Wieters a QO.

Quick Hits: Cespedes, Cubs, Allison

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Mets GM Sandy Alderson traded for Yoenis Cespedes because he believed the club needed another hitter, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Alderson originally focused on Brewers outfielder Carlos Gomez and Reds outfielder Jay Bruce because they came with additional club control. However, the Gomez deal was nixed after the Mets reviewed his physical, and the Reds pulled Bruce off the trade block on July 31. Alderson preferred Justin Upton of the Padres, but they refused to back down from demands for pitcher Michael Fulmer, shortstop Amed Rosario, and others. While Alderson still preferred a higher OBP hitter, Cespedes had the best acquisition cost. Per Alderson, if the Mets didn’t acquire a top bat, “people will point to the fact that we were not all in.”

  • The Cubs will be a trendy pick to win the National League next season, writes Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun Times. However, Theo Epstein and crew have a difficult road ahead of them. Within their own division, they’ll have to compete with the always successful Cardinals and recently excellent Pirates. The Mets formidable pitching staff will return next year, the Giants have a way of appearing every even year, and the Dodgers spend the most money in baseball. Unexpected opponents could also jump to the forefront. As Epstein admits, “We have to put ourselves in a position where we have a chance to be great. So we can win the division and not have to go through the coin flip of being in the wild-card game. I’m not saying you can always get there. Some things are beyond your control.” To be great, the club probably needs to add an ace. A veteran to help stabilize the young lineup could also be useful.
  • The Mariners have promoted Tom Allison to head of both professional and amateur scouting, tweets John Manuel of Baseball America. Allison had previously served as Seattle’s head of pro scouting so the promotion is an expansion of duties. Per Manuel, Allison had a strong run as an amateur scout with the Diamondbacks from 2007 through 2010. He also worked with the Mets and Brewers in a scouting capacity from 1996 through 2006.

NL East Notes: Benedict, Braves, Mets

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The Marlins have hired Pirates special assistant Jim Benedict to become their new vice president, pitching development, as MLB.com’s Adam Berry notes. The news is more significant than it might initially seem — Benedict and Bucs pitching coach Ray Searage have been widely credited with powering the pitching program that helped the Pirates get good results from a number of unknown or unappreciated hurlers in the last several season. Benedict is the Marlins’ second significant hire from the Bucs’ front office this fall — they previously tabbed another special assistant, Marc DelPiano, to serve as their farm director. Here’s more from the NL East.

  • The Braves face plenty of uncertainty in their bullpen and will likely pursue relief help this offseason, writes MLB.com’s Mark Bowman. Arodys Vizcaino will pitch in the late innings, and Chris Withrow (elbow) will likely be ready as well. But Jason Grilli and Shae Simmons are both making their back from injury and will be question marks, while Mike Foltynewicz could wind up in the rotation. That means the Braves could be in the market for righties like Joakim Soria, Jonathan Broxton, Tyler Clippard and Darren O’Day, along with lefties like Tony Sipp.
  • The Mets turned their season around as their lineup began to come together in late July, ESPN’s Jayson Stark writes. Obviously, much of that was their trade for Yoenis Cespedes, but manager Terry Collins also points to their additions of Juan Uribe and Kelly Johnson, which happened a week earlier. “[T]hat, to me, is when we started turning things around,” Collins says. Uribe and Johnson helped somewhat, but it wasn’t just that — it was that it became clear within the clubhouse that the Mets’ front office was willing to supplement its team.
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