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Mets Designate Zack Short For Assignment

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The Mets announced that outfielder J.D. Martinez has been recalled from Triple-A Syracuse, with infielder Zack Short designated for assignment as the corresponding move.

Martinez, 36, signed a one-year deal with the club last month. That deal came about very late in the offseason, not being made official until March 23, when Spring Training was effectively done. Players with at least five years of service time cannot be optioned to the minors without their consent, but Martinez agreed to be sent down since he missed the spring and needed to get some at-bats.

His return should bolster the Mets lineup, as he is a .287/.350/.524 hitter in his career and is coming off a strong season with the Dodgers. He seemed to be selling out for power last year, as his 31.1% strikeout rate was a career high by four points, but he also hit 33 home runs and slashed .271/.321/.572. Manager Carlos Mendoza indicated earlier this week that the club was planning to activate Martinez today, which was now come to fruition.

Martinez was already on the 40-man roster but the Mets had limited options in terms of getting him onto the active roster. The only optionable position players currently on the squad are Brett Baty and DJ Stewart. Baty has been the club’s everyday third baseman this year while Stewart has been great at the plate. Going back to his time with the club last year, he’s hit 14 home runs in 240 plate appearances. He has struck out at a hefty 28.7% clip but also drawn walks 10.4% of the time.

That left the Mets having to cut someone who is out of options and they decided on Short. The infielder, who turns 29 next month, was claimed off waivers from the Tigers in November. He took 12 plate appearances with the Mets this year and produced a line of just .111/.273/.111 in that time.

He spent the past three years with the Tigers and has a career batting line of .172/.266/.304 in 462 plate appearances. He’s been better in Triple-A, having slashed .226/.361/.397 since the start of 2021 while drawing walks in 16.2% of his appearances at that level. Since he’s played all three outfield spots and the three infield positions to the left of first base, he could be a solid utility piece if his major league offense were a bit more like his minor league work.

The Mets will have a week to trade him or pass him through waivers. In his absence, Joey Wendle will be the backup infielder, with a regular alignment of Baty, Francisco Lindor, Jeff McNeil and Pete Alonso on the dirt.

Yankees Claim Michael Tonkin, Designate McKinley Moore

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The Yankees announced that they have claimed right-hander Michael Tonkin off waivers from the Mets. He had been designated for assignment by the Mets earlier this week. To open a roster spot for Tonkin, right-hander McKinley Moore was designated for assignment.

Tonkin, 34, has been getting passed around the league so far this year. He was non-tendered by Atlanta at the end of last season and then signed a major league deal with the Mets. Shortly after the season started, he was designated for assignment and went to the Twins on a cash deal but then returned to the Mets on waivers. Now he’s on the move yet again and will join the Yankees.

Amid all those transactions, he has managed to throw nine innings on the year. He’s allowed six earned runs for a flat earned run average of 6.00, which obviously isn’t too impressive, but the peripherals are solid. He has struck out 23.9% of batters faced while walking 8.7% of them and keeping 44.4% of balls in play on the ground, with all of those rate stats coming in fairly close to league averages.

With Atlanta last year, he tossed 80 innings over 45 appearances. He had a 4.28 ERA in that time, as well as a 23.1% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate and 38.3% ground ball rate. He’s clearly an attractive enough bullpen arm that teams keep grabbing him but he’s also out of options and keeps getting squeezed.

Since he’s out of options, the Yankees will need to make room for him on the active roster whenever he reports to the team. Of their bullpen arms, Ian Hamilton, Ron Marinaccio and Cody Morris all have options and could be sent down. Hamilton isn’t likely the one to be packing his bag since he’s entered a high-leverage role for the Yankees. He had two saves and five holds last year and has already added four more holds this year.

To get Tonkin onto the 40-man, the Yankees have bumped off Moore. He’s only been with the Yanks a short time, having been claimed off waivers from the Phillies in February. He has made two appearances for the Triple-A club but walked six of the nine batters he faced.

That continues a pattern of control problems for the righty. He walked 23.8% of batters faced in his major league debut last year. In his 20 1/3 innings of minor league work in 2023, he struck out 40.7% of batters faced but also gave free passes to 24.2% of them.

The Yankees will now have one week to trade McKinley or pass him through waivers. The control problems will obviously be a concern to other teams but Moore’s also struck out 32.6% of batters faced throughout his entire minor league career. He averaged 97.2 miles per hour on his fastball during his MLB debut last year while also throwing a sweeper and a changeup. He still has a couple of options and could perhaps appeal to a club looking for a long-term project.

Rangers Claim Kolton Ingram

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The Rangers have claimed left-handed reliever Kolton Ingram off waivers from the Mets, per a team announcement. The Rangers’ 40-man roster is now at capacity. Ingram was designated for assignment when the Mets selected Tomas Nido’s contract in the wake of Francisco Alvarez’s thumb injury. Ingram has been optioned to Triple-A Round Rock for now.

Ingram, 27, made his big league debut with the Angels in 2023 but totaled just 5 1/3 innings. He allowed five runs on eight hits and five walks in that tiny sample but did fan seven of his 30 opponents. He’s had far more success in the upper minors, logging 102 1/3 innings of 2.46 ERA ball in Double-A and 38 2/3 innings of 3.72 ERA ball in Triple-A. Broadly speaking, Ingram has shown a knack for missing bats throughout his career — evidenced by a sharp 30% strikeout rate in the minors. However, he’s also battled command issues, walking 11.1% of his opponents in addition to another 14 plunked batters (1.6%).

Primarily a fastball/slider pitcher, Ingram sits 92-93 mph with his heater and has proven to be a consistent headache for left-handed opponents. They mustered an awful .151/.245/.186 slash against him in 2023 and hit just .141/.243/.219 against him the year prior. Righties have had more success but primarily due to his sub-par command. Right-handed opponents still hit in the low .200s against Ingram, but they’ve walked at a 12.5% clip against him over the past several seasons.

With Brock Burke on the injured list, the Rangers’ lone lefty in the bullpen at the moment is rookie Jacob Latz. He’s been generally effective through 11 1/3 innings, recording a 3.97 ERA with a below-average 21.6% strikeout rate but a strong 7.6% walk rate. Antoine Kelly had been the only other left-handed reliever on the 40-man roster for Texas, however, so Ingram will give them another candidate to join the big league ’pen if the club wants to carry a second southpaw or in the event of an injury to Latz. Ingram is in the second of three option years, so he can freely be shuttled between Arlington and Round Rock both this year and next (if he sticks with the organization).

Francisco Alvarez Expected To Miss Roughly Eight Weeks After Thumb Surgery

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Mets catcher Francisco Alvarez underwent surgery to repair the UCL tear in his left thumb, the team announced. The club suggested the procedure tends to require eight weeks before a player can return to game action. Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase reported shortly before the team announcement (on X) that the young catcher expected to be back at some point in July.

That’s at the longer end of the timeline which the team provided over the weekend. New York announced on Saturday that Alvarez was going under the knife. At the time, manager Carlos Mendoza loosely floated a recovery timetable in the six-to-eight week range, although he noted the team would have a clearer picture after the surgery.

New York initially placed Alvarez on the 10-day injured list. It’s likely that he’ll be moved to the 60-day IL once the team needs to open a spot on the 40-man roster. It’s a tough loss to the Mets lineup, as Alvarez is one of the team’s better power threats. He hit 25 homers last year as a 21-year-old rookie. He’d only connected on one longball in his first 59 plate appearances this season, hitting .236/.288/.364 over 16 games.

The Mets selected Tomás Nido onto the major league roster after the Alvarez injury. He’ll back up Omar Narváez for the foreseeable future. They’re the only healthy catchers on the 40-man roster. Narváez, who is likely to get the majority of the playing time, has struggled since signing a two-year free agent deal. The veteran hit .211/.283/.297 in 49 games last season. He’s out to a .179/.233/.214 start over his first 10 contests.

Mets Designate Michael Tonkin For Assignment

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The Mets have designated right-hander Michael Tonkin for assignment and optioned righty Grant Hartwig to Triple-A Syracuse, per a team announcement. It’s the second time they’ve designated Tonkin for assignment within the season’s first three and a half weeks. The Mets traded him to the Twins for cash last time, only to claim him back off waivers from Minnesota late last week when the Twins also designated him. The roster spots for Tonkin and Hartwig will go to right-hander Sean Reid-Foley and lefty Josh Walker. Reid-Foley is returning from the 15-day IL, while Walker is being recalled from Syracuse.

Tonkin’s second Mets stint last only two appearances and three innings. The 33-year-old righty pitched both Saturday and Sunday, allowing a pair of runs over three innings. He’s logged nine innings in the majors this season, yielding six earned runs (plus another six unearned) on 10 hits, four walks and four hit batters with 11 strikeouts.

Tonkin spent the 2023 season in the Braves’ bullpen, logging a 4.28 ERA, 24.2% strikeout rate and 9.1% walk rate in 80 innings. That set a new career-high MLB workload for the journeyman right-hander, who owns a career 4.44 ERA (4.54 FIP, 3.70 SIERA) with a 23.1% strikeout rate, 8% walk rate and 39.5% grounder rate in 235 1/3 big league innings between Minnesota, Atlanta and New York. Tonkin has also pitched in the D-backs and Brewers systems in addition to stints with the independent Atlantic League’s Long Island Ducks, the Mexican League’s Toros de Tijuana, and the Nippon-Ham Fighters in Japan.

As with Tonkin’s prior DFAs, he’ll either be traded, passed through outright waivers or released within the next week. He’d have the option to reject an outright assignment to Triple-A in the event that he goes unclaimed, though doing so would require forfeiting the remainder of the salary on the $1MM split major league contract he signed over the winter.

Mets Place Brooks Raley On 15-Day Injured List

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5:44PM: Manager Carlos Mendoza told MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo and other reporters that Raley’s MRI came back clean for any structural damage, so the expectation is that Raley could miss just the minimum 15 days.

3:40PM: The Mets announced that left-hander Brooks Raley has been placed on the 15-day injured list due to elbow inflammation.  Righty Grant Hartwig was called up from Triple-A in the corresponding move.

Raley has been untouchable so far this season, with a spotless 0.00 ERA (with two hits and three walks) over seven innings out of the New York bullpen.  He last pitched on Friday, tossing 20 pitches in two-thirds of an inning in the Mets’ 9-4 win over the Dodgers.  Raley’s previous outing was back on Monday, so it could be that he had been trying to pitch through his elbow soreness after taking a couple of days, or perhaps his elbow simply started barking after Friday’s game.

It was almost exactly a year ago that Raley was also placed on the Mets’ 15-day IL with a bout of elbow inflammation, and he was able to return after just a minimal absence.  Raley and the Mets can only hope that this latest injury is similarly minor, as Raley has an important role as the team’s chief southpaw reliever.  With Raley now sidelined, Jake Diekman is the only left-hander in New York’s relief corps.

Raley has posted a 2.58 ERA, 27.3% strikeout rate, and nine percent walk rate over 115 1/3 innings since the start of the 2022 season.  While he had a 4.78 ERA in 2021 with the Astros, the advanced metrics indicated a performance level closer to his 2022-24 numbers, so the Rays’ decision to give Raley a two-year, $10MM deal in the 2021-22 offseason ended up being a very canny move.  The Mets acquired Raley in a trade in December 2022, and then this past fall exercised their $6.5MM club option on Raley’s services for the 2024 campaign.

NL East Notes: Martinez, Ruiz, Strider

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The Mets are hoping that veteran slugger J.D. Martinez can join the big league club to make his debut on Friday, manager Carlos Mendoza told reporters (including Anthony DiComo of MLB.com). In the meantime, DiComo adds that Martinez will move his rehab assignment up to Triple-A Syracuse while he works toward being ready to return to the big leagues. Martinez, 36, signed with the Mets on a one-year deal just before Opening Day. Thanks to the slugger missing the entirety of Spring Training, he began the season in the minor leagues in order to build up for his debut with the big league Mets.

That process hit almost an immediate snag after Martinez found himself sidelined by “general body soreness” just two games into his rehab process. It was initially expected that Martinez would only need a few days off, but he hasn’t appeared in any games during the two weeks since then. That’s now set to change, however, with Martinez scheduled to get his final reps in at the Triple-A level before finally making his debut in Queens against the Cardinals, assuming things go smoothly from here. Should Martinez indeed be ready to come up on Friday, it would provide a boost to a Mets club that has already won six straight and ten of their last twelve to place themselves just 2.5 games back of Atlanta for the lead in the NL East.

The addition of Martinez, a six-time All Star and three-time Silver Slugger award winner, to the club’s lineup should help to further bolster a lineup that has already delivered a solid 109 wRC+ that ranks ninth among all MLB clubs this season. He’ll be particularly valuable for his power output; while the Mets currently rank middle of the pack with an ISO of just .141 and 22 home runs as a team, Martinez sports an incredible .237 ISO for his career and crushed 33 homers in just 113 games with the Dodgers last year.

More from around the NL East…

  • When Nationals backstop Keibert Ruiz was placed on the 10-day injured list because of the flu last week, it was a bit of an unusual diagnosis as illnesses rarely keep players out for more than a couple of days. Spencer Nusbaum of the Washington Post reported this afternoon that Ruiz’s case was severe enough that he’s lost between 18 and 20 pounds due to the illness, which has sidelined him since April 9. Fortunately, the young catcher seems to be doing better at this point, as Nusbaum adds that Ruiz is expected to head out for a rehab assignment in the coming days. Ruiz got off to a tough start at the plate with a slash line of just .194/.265/.290 in 34 plate appearances this year but nonetheless figures to take over regular catching duties for the Nats upon his return, where Riley Adams and Drew Millas have split time in Ruiz’s absence.
  • Braves right-hander Spencer Strider won’t pitch again this season after undergoing an internal brace procedure on his UCL earlier this month, but he told reporters (including Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution) earlier this week that he hadn’t actually torn his UCL. Instead, Strider noted that imaging revealed that a bone fragment had formed inside his UCL in the years since he first underwent surgery on the elbow back in 2019. Strider also revealed that he had been nursing discomfort in his elbow dating back to Spring Training, though at the time he attempted to pitch through it as it hadn’t impacted his velocity. The 25-year-old has emerged as one of the league’s most talented starters in recent years, posting a 3.36 ERA and 2.43 FIP in 318 1/3 innings of work between the 2022 and ’23 seasons. Atlanta has turned to right-hander Darius Vines to fill Strider’s spot in the rotation for the time being, though it’s possible another arm such as Bryce Elder or AJ Smith-Shawver could enter the mix for Strider’s starts at some point this season.

Francisco Alvarez To Undergo Thumb Surgery

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6:49PM: Mendoza told reporters (including Mike Puma of the New York Post) this evening that the youngster actually suffered a torn ligament in his thumb that will require surgery. Mendoza added that Alvarez’s timetable for return is not year clear but that he’s “confident” that the 22-year-old will return to action at some point this year. Puma adds that Alvarez indicated to teammates that his timeline for return is between six and eight weeks.

1:02PM: “We know for sure it’s going to be more than 10 days” for Alvarez’s recovery, Mendoza told MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo and other reporters.  The catcher is still undergoing further testing to check for any ligament damage or further injuries beyond just a sprain.

11:39AM: The Mets placed catcher Francisco Alvarez on the 10-day injured list due to a left thumb sprain, and selected the contract of catcher Tomas Nido from Triple-A.  In another corresponding move, left-hander Kolton Ingram was designated for assignment to open up a 40-man roster spot for Nido.  Earlier today, Mike Puma of the New York Post (X link) wrote that Nido was on his way to Los Angeles, as Alvarez was expected to require an IL stint after leaving last night’s 9-4 Mets win over the Dodgers.

In the top of the second inning, Alvarez hit an infield grounder, and Dodgers catcher Will Smith lobbed his throw over the head of first baseman Freddie Freeman.  Alvarez made it to second base on the error, but put his left hand on the ground to brace himself after stumbling on the turn around first base.  Mets manager Carlos Mendoza told SNY and other media that the thumb problem occurred on this play, and Alvarez was replaced behind the plate by Omar Narvaez for the bottom of the second inning.  Alvarez underwent an MRI after the game, and Mendoza said the team was “pretty concerned” about the situation.

After hitting .209/.284/.437 with 25 home runs over 423 plate appearances in 2023, Alvarez was looking to follow up his first full MLB season with another step forward this year.  The former star prospect has hit only .236/.288/.364 with one homer in 59 PA to date, and it now might be a while before he can improve on that small sample size.  We may learn more when Mendoza addresses reporters later today about the severity of the sprain or what kind of a recovery timeline awaits Alvarez.

Narvaez and Nido will handle catching duties in the meantime, and in Nido’s case, the selection of his minor league contract will allow the veteran backstop to take part in his eighth Major League season.  Nido’s whole career has been spent in the Mets organization, and he signed a two-year, $3.7MM extension prior to the 2023 campaign.

The catcher is still owed $2.1MM on that deal for this season, and Nido will also reach five full seasons of MLB service time after he amasses 11 more days on an active roster.  Once he hits the five-season threshold, Nido will be able to reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency, while still retaining whatever is is still owed on that guaranteed salary.  When New York designated Nido for assignment and outrighted him last June, he would’ve had to walk away from his salary if he had opted to turn down the outright assignment and become a free agent, which undoubtedly impacted his decision to remain in the organization.

Ingram was claimed off waivers from the Tigers back in February, and the left-hander has struggled badly over four relief appearances for Triple-A Syracuse this season.  Over just five innings of work, Ingram has already issued six walks and allowed five hits, en route to a 7.20 ERA.  While control has been a concern for Ingram for much of his minor league career, this spike (albeit in a small sample size) in walk rate obviously jarred the Mets enough to expose the southpaw to DFA waivers.

It isn’t out of the question that another organization might put in a claim, as Ingram already switched teams twice this offseason via the waiver wire — before going from the Tigers to the Mets, Detroit first claimed Ingram off waivers from the Angels.  It was with Los Angeles that Ingram made his MLB debut with 5 1/3 innings in 2023, and he also amassed some solid numbers over his three seasons in the Angels’ farm system.  Ingram had a 30.21% strikeout rate in the minors prior to this season, but that number also plummeted to 9.5% in his brief time with Syracuse.

Mets Outright Tyler Jay

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Mets reliever Tyler Jay went unclaimed on waivers and was sent outright to Triple-A Syracuse, tweets Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. He’ll stick in the organization without holding a 40-man roster spot.

Jay, who turns 30 today, had a brief stint on the big league team. He pitched twice, allowing only one run over four innings. That cup of coffee was the culmination of a lengthy climb through the professional ranks. The sixth overall pick in the 2015 draft by the Twins, Jay never reached the big leagues with Minnesota. Injuries, most notably a 2017 thoracic outlet procedure, stopped the Illinois product from moving past Double-A.

It looked as if Jay would never get to the majors, but he reinvigorated his career in independent ball. Jay showed enough with the Frontier League’s Joliet Slammers between 2022-23 to earn a minor league opportunity from the Mets. He made six appearances with Syracuse late last season and began this year with 5 2/3 scoreless innings there.

Despite his strong start, the Mets designated Jay for assignment when they reacquired the out-of-options Michael Tonkin on Wednesday. Jay will head to Triple-A and look to pitch his way back to the big league bullpen later this season.

Which Hot Or Cold Starts Are For Real?

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The 2024 season is just a few weeks old. There’s still a lot of time for narratives to shift and plenty of exciting or deflating changes are surely coming up over the horizon. Nonetheless, the games in April count just as much as the games in September. Some clubs have already banked some valuable wins while others have put themselves in a real hole.

Looking at the FanGraphs Playoff Odds today and comparing them to where they were ahead of the Seoul Series, there are five clubs that have increased their postseason chances by more than 10%. Meanwhile, six clubs have seen their odds drop by more than 10%. Which of those are just small-sample blips and which are signs that the club’s talent level is meaningfully different than expected? Let’s take a glance.

Orioles

The defending champions of the American League East were given just a 51.8% chance of making it back to the postseason, per the FanGraphs odds from before any games had been played. They have started out 12-6 and seen their odds jump to 76.5% today, a difference of 24.7%.

Baltimore continues to get huge contributions from its young core and role players alike. Jackson Holliday’s big league career is out to a slow start, but others have picked up the slack, with Colton Cowser, Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg and Cedric Mullins off and running. Even Ryan O’Hearn, who was acquired in a small cash deal from the Royals, continues to thrive. On the pitching side, Corbin Burnes has been the expected ace while Grayson Rodriguez continues to cement himself as a quality big league arm. There are some question marks at the back end with Dean Kremer and Cole Irvin out to wobbly starts, but Kyle Bradish and John Means are both on minor league rehab assignments and could rejoin the club soon.

The 18 games they have played so far have come against the Angels, Royals, Pirates, Red Sox, Brewers and Twins.

Royals

The Royals entered the season with playoff odds of just 13.1% but they have gone 12-7 so far, bumping themselves up to 33.2%, a difference of 20.1%.

An improved rotation gets a lot of the credit. Between last year’s trade for Cole Ragans, the offseason signings of Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, as well as the emergence of Alec Marsh, it’s a whole new look alongside Brady Singer. None of those five have an ERA higher than 4.32 so far this year. On the position player side of things, Bobby Witt Jr. is further proving himself to be a superstar, while Salvador Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino are healthy and productive.

They have faced the Twins, Orioles, White Sox, Astros and Mets thus far.

Yankees

The Yanks had strong odds to begin with, starting out at 71.2%. A hot start of 13 wins and 6 losses has already bumped those all the way to 85.9%, a jump of 14.7%.

Health was a big factor for the Yankees last year, with players like Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, DJ LeMahieu, Giancarlo Stanton, Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodón all missing significant time. This year, Gerrit Cole is on the shelf, as is LeMahieu. But new face Juan Soto has been great so far, while Stanton, Cortes and Rodón are back in decent form.

The injuries or lack thereof will probably remain a focus for the months to come, especially with so many key players in their mid-30s. Last year, the club was 45-36 through the end of June, but mounting injuries led to them going 20-33 through July and August.

They have started their season by playing the Astros, Diamondbacks, Blue Jays, Marlins and Guardians.

Brewers

The National League Central is arguably the most up-for-grabs, with the five clubs fairly close in terms of talent. Despite being the reigning division champs, the Brewers were given just a 30.6% chance of making the postseason, below the Cardinals and Cubs. They’ve started out 11-6 and are now at 43.5%, a 12.9% bump.

There have been quite a few nice performance on the offensive side of things. Willy Adames had a bit of a down year in 2023 but is off to a good start in this campaign. Brice Turang and Blake Perkins are also putting up better numbers than last year. Joey Ortiz has done well since coming over from the Orioles in the Burnes trade. The loss of Burnes and the injury to Brandon Woodruff left the club without their co-aces, but Freddy Peralta has stepped up with a 2.55 ERA and 39.4% strikeout rate through his first three starts.

They have faced off against the Mets, Twins, Mariners, Reds, Orioles and Padres so far.

Mets

After a disastrous 2023 season and a relatively quiet winter, the Mets opened this year with their odds at 27.6%. A 10-8 start has already bumped them to 38.7%, an 11.1% difference.

They have been especially strong of late, as they started out 0-5 but have gone 10-3 over their last 13 contests. The bounceback plays on Luis Severino and Sean Manaea seem to be going well so far. Edwin Díaz is healthy again and already has four saves. On the position player side, Brett Baty seems to be taking a step forward. DJ Stewart is carrying over last year’s hot finish, and the Tyrone Taylor pickup looks like a nice move.

They have lined up against the Brewers, Tigers, Reds, Braves, Royals and Pirates.

Giants

The Giants added plenty of talent this winter and opened the season with playoff odds of 44.6%. But an 8-11 start has already dropped them to 34%, a difference of 10.6%.

Stretching out Jordan Hicks is going great so far, but Blake Snell showed a lot of rust in his first two starts after signing late in the offseason. On offense, acquisitions like Jung Hoo Lee, Matt Chapman and Nick Ahmed have produced subpar offense, and the same goes for incumbents like Mike Yastrzemski, Wilmer Flores and Thairo Estrada.

They have squared off against the Padres, Dodgers, Nationals, Rays and Marlins thus far.

Cardinals

Despite a dreadful 2023 campaign, expectations were high for the Cards coming into this year after they remade their rotation. But a middling start of 9-10 has dropped their playoff odds from 50.1% to 38.7%, a difference of 11.4%.

Injuries have been playing a notable role in the early going for the Cards, with Sonny Gray, Lars Nootbaar, Tommy Edman, Dylan Carlson and others missing time. The Lance Lynn signing looks good so far, as he has a 2.18 ERA through four starts, but Kyle Gibson is at 6.16. Both the veteran Paul Goldschmidt and the youngster Jordan Walker are out to terrible starts at the plate. The Cardinals’ long list of injuries opened up playing time for guys like Alec Burleson and Victor Scott II, who have each struggled immensely.

They have faced the Dodgers, Padres, Marlins, Phillies, Diamondbacks and Athletics to this point.

Mariners

The Mariners just missed the playoffs last year but still opened this season with a 60.8% chance of getting back there. A tepid start of 9-10 has seen those odds slide to 49.1%, a difference of 11.7%. Things were even more dire before they swept the Reds this week, as they were 6-10 prior to that.

The rotation has surprisingly been a problem thus far. An injury to Bryan Woo bumped Emerson Hancock into the rotation, but Hancock has an ERA of 7.98 through three starts. Each of Luis Castillo and George Kirby also have poor results, though those may be based on luck. Both have a high BABIP and low strand rate, so both have a FIP just above 3.00, about three runs lower than their ERA.

Julio Rodríguez is the biggest disappointment on the position player side. He is striking out at a 34.6% clip and walking just 5.1% of the time while still looking for his first home of the year, leading to a line of .219/.269/.260. Luke Raley, Mitch Garver and J.P. Crawford have also looked lost at the plate, with none of that trio posting a wRC+ higher than 75 so far.

The M’s have played the Red Sox, Guardians, Brewers, Blue Jays, Cubs and Reds.

Marlins

The Fish swam into the playoffs last year, their first postseason berth in a full season in 20 years. They followed that with an offseason mostly focused on overhauling their front office and player development system. A disastrous 4-15 start has already dropped this year’s playoff odds from 27.9% to 2.3%, a difference of 25.6%.

Injuries have been a huge factor, as the club’s former starting pitching surplus quickly became a deficit. Sandy Alcántara required Tommy John surgery last year, and Eury Pérez followed him down that path this year. Edward Cabrera and Braxton Garrett also missed some time due to shoulder troubles. A.J. Puk’s attempted move from the bullpen to the rotation is not going well so far, and Jesús Luzardo is struggling badly. Max Meyer was doing well but he was optioned to the minors to monitor his workload after he missed all of last year recovering from his own Tommy John procedure. The offense has been pretty bad across the board, as not a single member of the team has a wRC+ of 105 or higher. Jake Burger hit the injured list earlier this week, removing one of their top power bats from that already weak group.

They faced the Pirates, Angels, Cardinals, Yankees, Braves and Giants to start the year and have yet to win back-to-back games.

Astros

The Astros have been a powerhouse for years and opened this season with an 86.2% chance of returning to the postseason. But they have stumbled out of the gates this year with a record of 6-14, dropping their odds to 59.7%, a 26.5% drop.

Like some of the other clubs mentioned above, health has been a big factor here. Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia each underwent elbow surgery last year and are still rehabbing. So far this year, the Astros have lost Justin Verlander, José Urquidy and Framber Valdez to the IL, giving them a full rotation on the shelf. (Verlander will return tomorrow.)

With those prominent arms not around, others haven’t really picked up the slack. Hunter Brown has an ERA of 10.54 through four starts while J.P. France is at 7.08. Prospect Spencer Arrighetti was called up to fill in but has been tagged for nine runs over seven innings in his two outings. Josh Hader, Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu have surprisingly been bad out of the bullpen, with each having an ERA of 6.00 or higher. On offense, José Abreu has been awful, hitting .078/.158/.098. That performance got him bumped down in the lineup, and he’s been ceding playing time to Jon Singleton lately.

The Astros began the year playing the Yankees, Blue Jays, Rangers, Royals and Braves.

Twins

The Twins are the reigning champs in the American League Central but made some budget cuts this winter. Their 6-11 start has moved their playoff odds from 66% to 38.6%, a shift of 27.4%.

Once again, injuries are a big part of the story here. Oft-injured Royce Lewis went down with a quad strain on Opening Day, and Carlos Correa followed him later, subtracting the club’s left side of the infield. The only guys with at least 30 plate appearances and a wRC+ above 100 are Ryan Jeffers, Alex Kirilloff and the currently-injured Correa. Multiple injured relievers, most notably Jhoan Durán, have left the bullpen shorthanded.

In the rotation, the club lost Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Tyler Mahle from last year’s club, but their main attempt at replacing those guys was to acquire Anthony DeSclafani on the heels of a pair of injury-wrecked seasons. He required flexor tendon surgery and will miss the rest of the year. The incumbents haven’t been much help. Chris Paddack, Louie Varland and Bailey Ober each have an ERA above 6.50, though Ober has rebounded after being shelled for eight runs in just 1 1/3 innings in his season debut.

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Some of these are probably just flukes, and the results will even out over the rest of the season, but some of these clubs might be showing us who they really are. Which ones do you believe in? Have your say in the polls below, the first one for the hot starts and the second one for the cold starts. (Note: you can select multiple options in each poll.)

Which of these hot starts are for real?
Orioles 50.39% (4,587 votes)
Yankees 24.18% (2,201 votes)
Brewers 10.41% (948 votes)
Royals 9.70% (883 votes)
Mets 5.32% (484 votes)
Total Votes: 9,103
Which of these cold starts are for real?
Marlins 38.92% (3,900 votes)
Cardinals 21.01% (2,105 votes)
Twins 13.57% (1,360 votes)
Giants 10.24% (1,026 votes)
Astros 10.16% (1,018 votes)
Mariners 6.11% (612 votes)
Total Votes: 10,021
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