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Mets To Non-Tender Daniel Vogelbach

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The Mets are planning to non-tender left-handed slugger Daniel Vogelbach, reports Mike Puma from the New York Post. Vogelbach, 31 next month, slashed .233/.339/.404 in 104 games with the Mets this year and was projected for $2.6MM in his final trip through arbitration by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz. He’ll now hit free agency and be eligible to sign with any of MLB’s 30 clubs.

A second-round pick by the Cubs in the 2011 draft, Vogelbach made his MLB debut with the Mariners back in 2016, though he wouldn’t receive consistent playing time at the big league level until 2019. He was an All-Star for Seattle that year, slashing .208/.341/.439 with 30 homers in 558 trips to the plate. Vogelbach split his shortened 2020 campaign between the Mariners, Blue Jays, and Brewers before settling in with Milwaukee in a part-time role for the 2021 season.

After slashing an essentially league average .215/.343/.385 (101 wRC+) with 15 homers in 394 plate appearances from 2020-21, Vogelbach signed with the Pirates on a big league deal for the 2022 season. He hit fairly with the Pirates (116 wRC+) but really took off after a midseason trade to the Mets, for whom he slashed .255/.393/.436 (143 wRC+) in 183 trips to the plate down the stretch as a part-time DH. Vogelbach returned to Queens in that same role for 2023 but failed to replicate his 2022 production in the role with a wRC+ of just 104.

Vogelbach will enter the free agent market as a quality bench piece or part-time slugger for a club at first base or DH, though his glovework at first is generally regarded as questionable. While Vogelbach possesses a strong .240/.362/.452 slash line against right-handed pitchers for his career, same-handed pitching has crushed him during his time in the majors; he’s hit just .129/.248/.215 in 189 career games against southpaws, meaning any acquiring club would almost assuredly not be interested in Vogelbach for an everyday role.

Pete Alonso Looking To Surpass Recent Deals For Top First Basemen

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The relationship between the Mets and Pete Alonso has a ticking clock on it, with the slugging first baseman now less than a year away from free agency. There have been plenty of rumors about the possibilities of a trade or an extension, though neither has come to fruition thus far. This week, Jeff Passan of ESPN reported that Alonso’s requests in extension talks have surpassed the recent contracts for other first basemen from recent years. Meanwhile, Jesse Rogers of ESPN reports that the Cubs continue to have interest and would be willing to make Christopher Morel part of the return package.

Alonso’s appeal is obvious as he has been one of the best power bats in the majors since his 2019 debut. He has hit between 37 and 53 home runs in each full season of his career and 16 more in the shortened 2020 campaign. His 192 long balls since the start of 2019 are easily the most in baseball, with Matt Olson second at 177. Overall, Alonso has hit .251/.342/.528 for a wRC+ of 133. Reviews on his glovework are mixed, with Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average considering him to be subpar, though Defensive Runs Saved disagrees. Regardless, his bat is potent enough that he’s plenty valuable even without strong work in the field.

That Alonso is looking to get a contract “much bigger” than the top first base contracts of recent years, per Passan, is fairly logical given his output. The last decade saw some mammoth deals for first basemen but recent years have seen a softening. Miguel Cabrera got an extension of $248MM from the Tigers, topping the $240MM and $214MM earned by free agents Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder, respectively. But that Cabrera deal was in 2014, whereas the latter two deals were going into 2012.

Since that time, the two biggest guarantees for first basemen went to Olson and Freddie Freeman. Olson signed an eight-year, $168MM extension with Atlanta when he was still two years away from free agency. Back in February, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco took a look at Alonso as an extension candidate and noted the similarities between them at the time. But since then, Alonso has moved one year closer to the open market. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him to get a salary of $22MM in his final arbitration season. Players generally increase their earning power as they move closer to free agency, which give Alonso an argument for going past Olson at this point.

Freeman got his six-year, $162MM deal on the open market, but going into his age-32 season. He can’t match Alonso’s power but has generally had better batting averages and on-base percentages, in addition to a stronger defensive reputation. But Alonso is slated to reach free agency ahead of his age-30 campaign, making him two years younger than when Freeman went to the Dodgers.

All this suggests Alonso and agent Scott Boras are setting their sights on something in the $200MM range. It’s unclear if the Mets have any interest in meeting that asking price but it also doesn’t appear they are being pushed into a trade. President of baseball operations David Stearns has said multiple times that he expects Alonso to be the club’s Opening Day first baseman next year. “I don’t draw lines in the sand,” Stearns said last week. “And I’m never gonna say never. But I absolutely think it’s fair that I don’t anticipate him being traded.”

If the Mets were to consider a trade, the Cubs continue to have interest, per Rogers. The two clubs reportedly discussed Alonso at the deadline last year and the Cubs still don’t have an obvious solution at first base. Matt Mervis continued to hit well in Triple-A, slashing .282/.399/.533 this year, but his first 99 plate appearances in the majors led to a line of just .167/.242/.289. The Cubs could give him another shot but they may prefer a more established player like Alonso.

It was recently reported that Morel is getting some work at first base in winter ball, which gives them another option there, but a trade of Morel also seems to be on the table. He has struck out at a 31.6% clip in his first 854 plate appearances but the power is real, launching 42 home runs in that time. The problem is defense, with Morel generally considered not a great fit for shortstop, third base or the outfield. Moving to first might be a decent compromise, but it would be a waste of his strong throwing arm, which Statcast places in the 99th percentile.

Morel has posted decent results at second base but the Cubs have a middle infield of Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner. Hoyer recently stated that “another team might be able to put him” at second, which perhaps suggests Morel is more valuable to the Cubs as a trade chip than anything else and this report from Rogers suggests that may indeed be their thinking.

The Mets have Jeff McNeil as their most likely option at the keystone, though he’s also capable of playing third base or an outfield corner, so perhaps they would have some interest in Morel. Giving up on a fan favorite like Alonso would be a tough pill to swallow but Morel is cheaper, having not yet reached arbitration, and still has five years of club control. It would leave the club with a hole at first base though they could perhaps try Mark Vientos there or acquire a cheap free agent stopgap. Prospect Ryan Clifford, acquired in the Justin Verlander trade, could be a future option at that spot but he’s yet to crack Double-A. Putting Morel at second could block Ronny Mauricio but he didn’t hit the ground running in his first major league action and could also move over to third base and battle Brett Baty for playing time. Luisangel Acuña, acquired in the Max Scherzer trade, could be an option at the keystone in the future but has yet to reach Triple-A to this point.

All this is speculative and there’s still nothing to suggest the Mets like Morel or even want to move Alonso. But they will likely have to make some kind of decision at some point. If they don’t trade Alonso now or at the 2024 trade deadline, they would be left to make him a qualifying offer at season’s end and collect a compensation pick. But since they are likely to pay the luxury tax yet again, that pick would be between the fourth and fifth round of the draft, surely far less appealing than whatever they could get in a trade. But with Steve Cohen’s unprecedented spending in recent years, it also wouldn’t be a shock to see Alonso locked up for an extended stay in Queens.

Mets Discussing Drew Smith Trades

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The Mets are discussing right-hander Drew Smith in trades, reports Mike Puma of The New York Post. Smith can be retained via arbitration, with the deadline to tender contracts for such players coming up tonight at 7 pm Central.

Smith, 30, has had some decent seasons for the Mets but a few things went in the wrong direction in the past year. In 2022, he made 44 appearances with an earned run average of 3.33, striking out 28.3% of opponents while walking 8%. In 2023, his strikeout rate fell to 24.6%, his walk rate ticked up to 11.9% and his ERA was almost a full run worse, finishing at 4.15. He was also given a 10-game sticky stuff suspension in June.

The righty is now down to his final year of club control. He made a salary of $1.3MM in 2023 and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a bump to $2.3MM next year. That’s a perfectly reasonable salary for a guy who’s shown some strikeout potential in his career but it seems the Mets are at least considering going in another direction.

Since he would be just a one-year rental and is coming off a down year, the return in any trade would undoubtedly be modest. But on top of whatever comes back to the Mets, they could also repurpose some of their cost savings elsewhere or perhaps just pocket them. The Mets were competitive balance tax payors in each of the past two seasons and are slated to do so for a third straight year. Roster Resource has their CBT number at $281MM for 2024, well over the $237MM base threshold, before even factoring in potential moves in the months to come. As a third time payor, they would pay a 50% tax on any overages and even higher taxation rates for going beyond the other tiers, which go up in $20MM increments.

Owner Steve Cohen hasn’t been shy about spending money since taking over the club but it seems they may be considering something of a step back in 2024. That could still see them spend on some notable big-name free agents, but perhaps they also consider a bit of penny pinching to go along with it.

Mets To Move Eric Chávez Back To Hitting Coach Role

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The Mets are planning to move Eric Chávez back to a hitting coach role, reports Andy Martino of SNY. Current hitting coach Jeremy Barnes isn’t going anywhere, with Chavez set to serve as a co-hitting coach alongside him.

Chávez, 46 next month, played in the majors from 1998 to 2014. The Mets hired him to be their hitting coach prior to the 2022 campaign but he got moved to bench coach duties in 2023, with Barnes taking over his previous title. The club has made some shifts to their dugout staff in recent months, with manager Buck Showalter having been fired and replaced by Carlos Mendoza. Amid those changes, it seems Chávez will go back to focusing on the hitting side of things.

It’s clear that Chávez is quite respected around the game, having been connected to managerial openings throughout the league in recent years. Just a few weeks ago, he was considered for the Padres’ managerial vacancy. That job is still open but it doesn’t appear Chávez will be taking it, instead sticking with the Mets.

Evaluating the impact one individual coach can be difficult when teams consist of dozens of players of varying skill levels and multiple staffers of different kinds, but Martino suggests the players on the team will be pleased, adding a second post that says Chávez was viewed favorably by the club for his work in 2022.

Yankees, Mets Have Discussed Manuel Margot Trades With Rays

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The Yankees have “engaged the Rays in multiple conversations this offseason” relating to outfielder Manuel Margot, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. It has recently been reported that the Rays have been discussing Margot with multiple clubs and Rosenthal reiterates that. Joel Sherman of The New York Post adds that the Mets are interested as well.

Margot, 29, has been a solid contributor to this point in his career, largely serving as a strong defender with offense just a bit under league average. Since getting traded from the Padres to the Rays prior to 2020, he has hit .264/.317/.375 for a wRC+ of 97. He also stole 41 bases in that time while generally producing above-average defensive grades: +16 Defensive Runs Saved, +21 Outs Above Average and a grade of +1.9 from Ultimate Zone Rating. Those numbers slipped a bit in 2023 but they can often be inconsistent on a year-to-year basis and Margot was recovering from a significant strain of the patellar tendon in his right knee in 2022.

Going into the 2022 season, Margot and the Rays agreed to an extension that runs through 2024. He’ll make a salary of $10MM next year and there’s a $12MM mutual option for 2025 with a $2MM buyout. Since mutual options are almost never picked up by both sides, teams will consider Margot to have one year and $12MM remaining on his deal. That’s a perfectly suitable price point for a decent regular. Jackie Bradley Jr. got two years and $24MM from the Brewers a few years back. Kevin Kiermaier got one year and $9MM from the Jays despite being 33 years old and coming off hip surgery. Eddie Rosario got two years and $18MM from Atlanta.

But the Rays have often traded away players as they approach free agency, both as a way to keep costs down and to perpetually restock their farm system. The club’s payroll for next year is currently slated to be $126MM, per Roster Resource. They’ve never gone beyond the $80MM range, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. A few members of their arbitration class will likely wind up non-tendered and the club seems to have some willingness to push payroll upwards next year, but it seems like some cuts are still going to be necessary.

There have been some rumors about Tyler Glasnow trades of late, unsurprising given his talent and $25MM salary in 2024, but a Margot trade would surely be more palatable from Tampa’s perspective. Their rotation suffered a large number of injuries in 2023, with each of Shane McClanahan, Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen set to miss some or all of 2024 while rehabbing from surgery. Subtracting Glasnow would leave the club with a rotation of Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale, Shane Baz, Zack Littell and Taj Bradley. They might be able to get by with such a group but it’s much stronger with Glasnow in it and the club is surely aware how quickly depth can evaporate due to injuries.

Subtracting Margot from the outfield, on the other hand, would not appear to be as risky. They would still have Randy Arozarena, Jose Siri and Josh Lowe as regulars, with players like Luke Raley, Greg Jones, Jonathan Aranda, Vidal Bruján and Harold Ramírez having varying degrees of outfield capabilities as well. Even if the club considers that group unsatisfactory, they could patch together some extra depth via minor league deals and waiver claims. The cost savings of flipping Margot would be less than half of a Glasgow deal but the former would be more appealing in terms of roster construction.

Yankees general manager Brian Cashman has frankly admitted that they need a couple of outfielders to be slotted next to Aaron Judge. They recently tried to insert Harrison Bader into their center field gap but he didn’t hit much and was often injured, eventually being placed on waivers as the 2023 season was winding down. Jasson Domínguez made his major league debut in Bader’s absence but required Tommy John surgery, leaving the club looking for answers there yet again.

Players like Jake Bauers and Estevan Florial are some of the options currently on the roster but the Yanks would surely like to upgrade there. Bauers hit .202/.279/.413 in 2023. Florial shows some exciting tools at times but he almost always strikes out around 30% of the time wherever he’s playing. Oswaldo Cabrera hit .211/.275/.299 last year in a utility role. Everson Pereira has similar strikeout concerns to Florial and hit .151/.233/.194 in his first 27 major league games.

Trades between division rivals can be tricky and the Yanks might also have caution about Margot’s injury history, something Rosenthal points out. The Yanks have been snakebit in recent years by seeing many of their acquisitions hitting the injured list, such as Frankie Montas hardly being able to pitch for them after being acquired from the A’s. Margot has gone to the injured list in each of the past four years, with his 125 games played in 2021 the only time he got into triple digits during that stretch.

As for the Mets, Starling Marte battled groin issues that kept him to 86 games of subpar production, making him an unknown going into 2024. Mark Canha and Tommy Pham were traded prior to the deadline and are no longer in the mix. Acquiring some outfield help to bolster the group around Brandon Nimmo makes plenty of sense. DJ Stewart went on a torrid hot streak late last year, hitting 11 home runs in 58 games, but he’s generally considered a poor defender. Acquiring a glove-first outfielder like Nimmo could push Stewart into a bench bat/designated hitter role.

The Yankees, Mets and other clubs with interest in Margot could also look to the free agent market for outfielders, but that would likely mean forking out more money than what Margot is set to make. Cody Bellinger is going to require a nine-figure guarantee while players like Teoscar Hernández and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. should get sizeable eight-figure deals. Even players somewhat similar to Margot, such as Kiermaier and Bader, are likely going to find multi-year deals somewhere.

Mets Select Alex Ramirez

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The Mets announced Tuesday that they’ve selected the contract of outfield prospect Alex Ramirez, thus protecting him from next month’s Rule 5 Draft. Their 40-man roster now has 33 players.

Ramirez, 20, followed up an impressive 2022 season with a tough year at High-A in 2023. He appeared in 120 games and tallied 521 plate appearances with just a .221/.310/.317 batting line to show for it. Ramirez hit seven homers, adding 21 doubles, a triple and a 21-for-27 showing in stolen base attempts.

Earlier in the year, Ramirez ranked on the back end of Baseball America’s Top 100 prospect rankings, though his rough season at the plate caused his stock to dip enough that he’s now off the list. Despite the rocky showing, Ramirez’s tools still draw plenty of praise. He’s regarded as an above-average runner and more than capable center fielder with a plus arm and above-average power. He was still more than two years younger than his average opponent in High-A, so there’s still plenty of time for him to iron out the kinks and restore much of his prospect status.

Braves Claim Penn Murfee, Designate Yonny Chirinos

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The Braves announced that right-hander Penn Murfee has been claimed off waivers from the Mets.  In the corresponding move, Atlanta designated right-hander Yonny Chirinos for assignment.

It was pretty brief run for Murfee in Queens, as the Mets only just claimed the righty themselves from the Mariners two weeks ago.  It wasn’t publicly known that Murfee was again available, but it could be that the Mets opted to move on and clear some 40-man roster space since Murfee won’t be an option until at least midway through the 2024 season.  Murfee underwent a UCL surgery last June that prematurely ended his 2023 campaign and might threaten all of his 2024 season, depending on the exact nature of the procedure or whether or not he might hit any setbacks.

Since making his big league debut in 2022, Murfee posted a 2.70 ERA over 83 1/3 relief innings for Seattle, along with a 27.9% strikeout rate and 8.5% walk rate.  That latter statistic is rather heavily skewed to 2022, as Murfee had a very impressive 6.6% walk rate last season before his control spiked to a 17.2% walk rate this year.  Of course, this could also be a sample size variant, as Murfee only pitched 14 innings in 2023 before hitting the injured list.

Murfee was a bit of a late bloomer, as he didn’t make his MLB debut until he was just shy of his 28th birthday.  While a little older than most second-year players, Murfee is also controlled through the 2028 season, giving the Braves an interesting longer-term reliever to monitor if Murfee returns healthy and keeps his past form.

Chirinos also arrived in Atlanta via waiver claim, as the Braves plucked him off waivers from the Rays last July.  He made five starts and posted a 9.27 ERA over 22 1/3 innings before a bout of elbow inflammation ultimately ended his season in August.  For the 2023 season as a whole, Chirinos had a 5.40 ERA over 85 combined innings with Tampa Bay and Atlanta, with a 14.4% strikeout rate that was a career low even by Chirinos’ usual standard of not missing many bats.

Chirinos is no stranger to UCL injuries himself, as a Tommy John surgery led to over two full years between Major League appearances for the righty between the 2020 and 2022 seasons.  This year marked Chirinos’ first full season back in action, and he didn’t have the form he showed in posting a 3.65 ERA for the Rays over 234 1/3 innings from 2018-20.

Given Chirinos’ past solid numbers and his utility as a pitcher who can work in a variety of different roles as a starter, reliever, or swingman, it seems reasonable that he might get claimed off waivers.  Chirinos has enough service time to reject an outright assignment to Triple-A, though it seems likely that the Braves will just release him in the event that he clears waivers, thus handling one bit of arbitration-related business.  Chirinos is projected to earn $2MM via arbitration this winter, and today’s transaction is essentially an early non-tender in advance of Friday’s deadline.

Corbin Carroll Wins National League Rookie Of The Year Award

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Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll has won the National League Rookie of the Year award, the Baseball Writers Association of America announced. Mets right-hander Kodai Senga came in second while Dodgers outfielder James Outman placed third.

Carroll was selected to Arizona’s roster in late August of last year, allowing him to get a taste of the majors but without exhausting his rookie status. He fared extremely well in that audition, hitting .260/.330/.500 in his first 115 plate appearances for a wRC+ of 131, indicating he was 31% better than the league average hitter in that time. The D’Backs felt confident enough in Carroll based on that showing, and his work as a minor leaguer, to give him an eight-year extension with a guarantee of $111MM.

They were hoping he would be an integral part of the club and help them make the postseason for the first time since 2017. He went on to have an incredible showing in his first full season in the majors, hitting 25 home runs and stealing 54 bases. His .285/.362/.506 line led to a 131 wRC+ and he also got strong grades for his outfield defense. He produced 6.0 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs while Baseball Reference had him at 5.4. The club did indeed break their postseason drought, snagging a Wild Card spot and eventually going all the way to the World Series.

While the award is surely thrilling for Carroll and the Snakes on its own, there are other implications of Carroll taking the trophy. The new collective bargaining agreement contains measures designed to combat service time manipulation through the prospect promotion incentive, or PPI. Top-two Rookie of the Year finishers who were Top 100 prospects on at least two preseason lists at Baseball America, ESPN and MLB Pipeline are automatically credited with a full service year. That won’t apply to Carroll, who was up all year and earned a full service year regardless, though he was the #2 prospect on all three of those lists. Gunnar Henderson, who got the AL trophy today, was #1.

But players with PPI status can also earn extra draft picks for their clubs if they have less than 60 days of service time to start the season and earn a full service year the traditional way, as Carroll did, while also appearing on those preseason prospect lists. Players in that camp who finish in the top two in Rookie of the Year voting or top three in Cy Young or Most Valuable Player voting during their pre-arbitration seasons earn a bonus pick after the first round for their club. That means the Diamondbacks, who are already loaded with young talent, will get a valuable extra pick in next year’s draft.

Senga also had a strong season, his first after coming over from Japan. He made 29 starts for the Mets with a 2.98 earned run average, 29.1% strikeout rate, 11.1% walk rate and 44.7% ground ball rate. Players considered by MLB to be foreign professionals, as Senga is, aren’t eligible to earn PPI picks for their clubs. Outman also had a solid campaign, hitting 23 home runs and stealing 16 bases. He struck out in 31.9% of his plate appearances but offset that somewhat by walking at a 12% clip. His .248/.353/.437 batting line led to a wRC+ of 118 and he also graded out well in the field. He wasn’t considered a top 100 prospect coming into the year and wouldn’t have qualified for a PPI pick even if he surpassed Senga for second place.

The voting was unanimous, per the vote tally at BBWAA, with Carroll getting all 30 first-place votes. Senga got 22 second-place votes and Outman got five. Other players getting votes were Nolan Jones of the Rockies, Eury Pérez of the Marlins, Patrick Bailey of the Giants and three Reds: Matt McLain, Spencer Steer and Elly De La Cruz.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Coaching Notes: Cora, Tigers, Johns, Rays, Albernaz, Guardians

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The Tigers will be hiring Joey Cora for their coaching staff, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (X link) reported earlier this week.  Cora has spent the last two seasons as the Mets’ third base coach, and he “is expected” to fill that same role in Motown, according to Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press, who reports that current third base coach Gary Jones will remain on the staff in a new role.  However, that new position won’t be first base coach, as Petzold suggests that Triple-A manager Anthony Iapoce might take over first-base duties from the departing Alfredo Amezaga.

The 58-year-old Cora has 16 seasons’ worth of MLB coaching experience, coming on the heels of his 11 seasons as a Major League player from 1987-98.  Cora has worked as a bench coach and third base coach at the big league level, and is also known for his work as an infield instructor.  This is the first time Cora and Detroit manager A.J. Hinch have worked together, though Cora’s brother Alex worked as Hinch’s bench coach with the Astros before the younger Cora was hired as the Red Sox manager.

Catching up on some other coaching hires from the past week…

  • The Rays named Michael Johns as the club’s new first base coach.  (Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported the day before the official announcement that Johns was the “likely choice” for the job.)  Johns will replace Chris Prieto as both the first base coach, and as a baserunning and outfield instructor.  This will be the first time the 48-year-old Johns has worked on a big league staff, though he has a wide range of experience as a coach, coordinator, and manager within Tampa’s farm system since the 2007-08 offseason.  Johns has managed five different Rays affiliates, including Triple-A Durham in 2023.
  • The Guardians announced that Craig Albernaz has been hired as their big league coaching staff’s new field coordinator.  Albernaz interviewed for the managerial vacancy that was filled by Stephen Vogt, though obviously Albernaz impressed the Guards enough to earn a spot in the organization.  The 41-year-old Albernaz played with Vogt when both were minor leaguers in the Rays farm system, and Albernaz went onto a five-season stint in Tampa’s organization as a coach, coordinator, and manager in the minors after ending his playing career.  For the last four seasons, Albernaz was the Giants’ bullpen coach.

Shohei Ohtani Rumors: GM Meetings Edition

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The offseason kicked into gear this week with the General Manager Meetings taking place in Scottsdale, Arizona. Though the meetings were eventually ended early due to a virus circling the bases of the baseball world, there was still plenty of reporting about how markets are shaping up for various clubs and players. The big star of the winter is set to be Shohei Ohtani but only dribs and drabs of information have come out relating to him so far, with Jon Heyman of The New York Post and Bob Nightengale of USA Today rounding up some of the details.

Ohtani is the top free agent available, head and shoulders above the rest. The two-way superstar has been the best player in baseball of late, putting together a three-year run of excellence that is perhaps the greatest the sport has ever seen. He’s hit 124 home runs, stolen 57 bases and slashed .277/.379/.585 in that time for a wRC+ of 157. He’s also tossed 428 1/3 innings with a 2.84 earned run average. Elbow surgery will keep him from pitching in 2024 but he will still hit, and will presumably do all he can to return to the mound in 2025 and beyond.

There has never been a player like this or a free agent like this, which puts him center stage. It has been assumed by many that he is most likely to land with a traditional big spending club such as the Dodgers, but he’s such a massive superstar that it’s possible many dark horse teams get into the mix. Marketing opportunities, both in North America and around the world, should offset some of the money it takes to land him. Those factors, along with his unprecedented talents, could open the door to unlikely suitors. “No one knows where he’s going to end up,’’ Astros general manager Dana Brown said to Nightengale. “And I think that’s exciting for the game. You just don’t know what’s going to happen. I think there may be a wild card team out there that’s going to surface. These teams can just come out of nowhere.” Indeed, any club that is not interested in Ohtani would be more noteworthy than a club that is.

But little information was to be had at the meetings, as neither Ohtani nor his agent Nez Balelo were present. Many baseball decision makers hemmed and hawed when directly asked about their interest in Ohtani, many commenting on his immense talent while adding that any club would be happy to have him. Perhaps the most absurd instance of ducking the question came from Mariners’ president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto, when speaking with Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. When asked about how he would value such a unique player, he said merely “I don’t know.” When asked if he would need to figure out an answer, “Presumably so” was the response.

With various smokescreens coming from different directions, there is little left to do but try to read the tea leaves. Heyman says the Dodgers are considered the favorite because of their payroll space, track record of on-field success and Ohtani’s reported fondness for Southern California. But he also adds that the Angels want a reunion and the Padres are interested as well. The latter club is reportedly trying to figure out whether to trade or extend Juan Soto, with Heyman adding that president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has little interest in a trade. However, if they can successfully sign Ohtani, that could change.

He adds that the Yankees and Mets will check in but believe Ohtani is reluctant to live in New York. Heyman admits that he’s basing that on Ohtani’s initial arrival in North America six years ago, when he was reportedly choosing between the Angels, Dodgers, Padres, Rangers, Giants, Mariners and Cubs, mostly West Coast teams and none in New York. At that time, he was subject to the amateur bonus pool system and wasn’t going to get more than a few million bucks regardless of where he signed, so having a geographical preference didn’t hurt him financially. Now it would be in his best interest to at least pretend he’s open to signing anywhere, in order to have more suitors and boost his bidding. Whether he privately has a strong geographic preference right now is unknown.

The Cubs were the primary exception to the Western preference last time around and it seems they are hoping that Ohtani still thinks of them fondly. Nightengale lists them as a serious contender for Ohtani and adds that “several GMs” are saying that the Cubs “may be” the most aggressive team on Ohtani. He also adds that the Rangers are considered a serious contender, which isn’t surprising after their World Series win that was fuelled by several notable free agent signings in recent years.

As mentioned, the Angels would like a reunion and shouldn’t be counted out. “I think this is a very desirable place to play,’’ Minasian said to Nightengale. “It’s in a great part of the country. We have an outstanding fan base. The players that have played here since I’ve been here, have been really, really positive with their experiences. So, with anybody on the market, I think we have a chance.”

Though the Angels haven’t had much success on the field lately, they have done plenty of big deals under owner Arte Moreno. That includes a $360MM extension for Mike Trout, while Albert Pujols and Anthony Rendon got $254MM and $245MM in free agency, respectively. Re-signing Ohtani will likely require them to go beyond that stratosphere and into the mesosphere, but there’s at least some precedent there. “I wouldn’t put anything past,’’ Minasian said. “I think it’s something that for the right opportunities, ownership is all about winning. …We’ll do what we can to make the team as good as we can.’’

John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle wrote this week about the interest of the Giants, talking to president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi. “We’ve got a good amount of payroll flexibility,” Zaidi said, “so anybody that we think can be an impact player for us, even on a long-term deal, we’re going to be looking at.” Daniel Kramer of MLB.com covered Ohtani from the Mariners’ perspective, highlighting that Dipoto was much more vocal in his interest back when Ohtani was first coming over in 2017. There are likely a dozen other clubs working on their overtures to Ohtani at this very moment.

How it will all play out and on what timeline remains to be seen. Ohtani will likely want to talk teams about things beyond just money, such as how long they are willing to let him try pitching, what they would do if/when he can no longer take the mound, etc. Those conversations may take a few weeks and it’s been speculated that he may be signed by the Winter Meetings in the first week of December, but there are still plenty of unknowns about perhaps the most fascinating free agent of all-time.

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