David Stearns Discusses Alonso, Outfield, Bullpen
Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns addressed a few topics. In an appearance on The New York Post’s podcast with Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman, he touched on the future of first baseman Pete Alonso as well as the club’s outfield and relief groups.
Stearns reaffirmed the Mets have no desire to trade Alonso this offseason. The new baseball operations leader said he’s “pretty darn confident (Alonso) is going to be our first baseman on Opening Day.” He wasn’t committal on the three-time All-Star’s longer-term future in Queens. While Stearns predictably indicated they’d love to keep Alonso beyond the 2024 season, he spoke generally about the challenges of extending players who are deep into their club control window.
“We also understand that as players approach free agency, there’s often a desire to test free agency,” Stearns said. “It‘s really tough to line up on these types of deals in the last year of a player’s team control, the last year of arbitration.” The baseball operations president declined to go into detail about Alonso’s status specifically.
That said, Stearns’ broad reference to the difficulty of extending a player one year from the open market aligns with recent reporting on Alonso. Newsday’s Tim Healey indicated in early December there’d been no extension talks this offseason. As part of a reader mailbag yesterday, The Athletic’s Tim Britton wrote there is “little expectation that there will be substantive negotiations about a contract extension” at any point before the end of 2024.
MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Alonso for a $22MM salary in his final arbitration season. The sides will either agree upon a ’24 salary or exchange filing figures for a potential hearing by tomorrow’s deadline. If the slugger turns in a typical season, he’d likely look for a contract in excess of $200MM when he hits the open market. There might be renewed chatter about Alonso’s trade availability around the deadline if the Mets fall from contention, but the current organizational hope is seemingly that he’ll re-sign after testing the free agent waters.
That was the approach taken by Brandon Nimmo last offseason. Nimmo turned in a strong first season of his eight-year, $162MM deal. He hit .274/.363/.466 with 24 homers in a career-high 682 trips to the plate. That’s more than enough offense to profile in a corner outfield spot. That seems likely after the Mets brought in glove-first center fielder Harrison Bader on a one-year, $10.5MM deal last week.
Stearns indicated the specific outfield alignment is yet to be determined, but he noted that Nimmo has shown a willingness to do whatever the team feels is best. Plugging Bader in center would kick Nimmo to left field on most days. Starling Marte is still the presumptive starter in right as he looks to rebound from an injury-plagued, disappointing season. That could push DJ Stewart — who hit well in 58 games late in the year — to the designated hitter mix.
The Mets have been linked to more substantive additions (i.e. J.D. Martinez, Justin Turner) at the DH spot. While Stearns indicated he wouldn’t “close the door on anything” on the position player side, he cautioned they’re reluctant to take too many at-bats from young players. Brett Baty and Mark Vientos are in the mix at third base and DH, although the Mets lost Ronny Mauricio for most or all of the season when he tore his ACL in winter ball.
One area where another acquisition seems likely: the bullpen. Stearns confirmed reports they’re still looking to add to the relief corps. In a subsequent video call with various reporters (including Anthony DiComo of MLB.com), he indicated they’ll look for pitchers who offer a different repertoire or approach to some of the in-house options.
New York has a heavily right-handed bridge to star closer Edwin Díaz. The only southpaw who is guaranteed to start the year in the bullpen is Brooks Raley. Low-cost free agent pickups Michael Tonkin, Jorge López and Austin Adams join Drew Smith and Phil Bickford in the projected middle relief group.
Mets Sign Yacksel Ríos To Minor League Deal
The Mets have signed right-hander Yacksel Ríos to a minor league deal, reports Will Sammon of The Athletic. The righty also receives an invitation to major league Spring Training.
Ríos, 30, has 98 1/3 innings of major league experience, but scattered over six seasons. He’s pitched for the Phillies, Pirates, Mariners, Red Sox and Athletics, never topping 36 frames in any individual season. He has a combined 6.32 earned run average in his career, having struck out 20.8% of opponents while giving out walks at a 12.5% clip.
He started the year with the Braves on a minor league deal and looked in good form for a while. He tossed 25 1/3 innings for their Triple-A club with a 2.49 ERA, 30.3% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate. He was traded to the A’s in June in a cash deal and was quickly added to the major league roster, but he landed on the injured list after just three appearances. In July, he required surgery to repair an axillary branch aneurysm in his right shoulder. He was outrighted off the roster in October and elected free agency.
The major league track record isn’t especially impressive, but he’s been better in the minors. That includes a 4.12 ERA at Triple-A in 168 1/3 innings over six separate seasons. He has struck out a quarter of batters faced at that level, though he’s also given out free passes at a 12% clip. For the Mets, there’s no harm in bringing him aboard via this minor league deal to provide some non-roster depth. If selected to the roster, he is out of options but has just over three years of service time.
Mets Still Exploring Bullpen Market
Jan. 10: SNY’s Andy Martino indicates that the Mets are planning to spend in the vicinity of another $10MM on the 2024 payroll, with the bullpen indeed standing as the top priority. That’d very likely leave room for acquisitions along the lines of Suter, Peralta, Brebbia or other middle-tier relievers in free agency but figures to take the Mets out of the running for Hader and any of the top-tier bats left on the market.
Jan 9: The Mets have signed three relievers to major league contracts this offseason — Jorge Lopez, Michael Tonkin, Austin Adams — but perhaps aren’t yet done adding to the relief corps. Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes that while the Mets are highly unlikely to play at the top of the relief market (i.e. Josh Hader), they’re active in the lower tiers, with a preference for a left-handed arm. Brent Suter and Wandy Peralta are among the potential targets, and Sherman suggests that righty John Brebbia could be of interest to the Mets as well.
Suter, 34, has drawn some interest as a starting pitcher this winter but would presumably slot into the bullpen role for the Mets, whose president of baseball operations, David Stearns, knows the lefty quite well from the pair’s days together in Milwaukee (2016-22). Suter spent the 2023 season with the Rockies and showed no ill effects even moving to Coors Field; he logged a 3.38 ERA with an 18.8% strikeout rate, 8.6% walk rate, 46.5% grounder rate and his characteristic brand of weak contact. Suter’s 84 mph average exit velocity, 26.3% hard-hit rate and 3.3% barrel rate all ranked in the 97th percentile or better among MLB pitchers.
While Suter has never been a huge strikeout arm, his nearly-impossible-to-barrel repertoire has long made him a successful big leaguer. He touts a 3.49 ERA since making his MLB debut back in 2016 and, since moving to a relief role back in 2020, has logged a 3.16 earned run average with a 21.4% strikeout rate and 7.6% walk rate. Suter’s age and lack of velocity — he averaged just 88.3 mph on his sinker in 2023 and has never topped an 88.4 mph average — might combine to tamp down his earning power, but he’s a candidate for a multi-year deal and could hold extra appeal to Stearns due to those Brewers ties.
Peralta, meanwhile, is a known commodity to another key Mets figure: incoming manager Carlos Mendoza. The former Yankees bench coach had a first-hand look at Peralta in each of the past three seasons as he became an increasingly important arm for the Yankees. From 2021-23, Peralta logged 153 innings of 2.82 ERA ball with a 21% strikeout rate, 10.2% walk rate and huge 56.5% ground-ball rate. While Peralta isn’t quite at Suter’s level of hard contact suppression, he’s been in the 88th percentile or better in terms of his own average exit velocity in each of the past four seasons.
Brebbia, 33, has spent the past three seasons in San Francisco and fared quite well for the most part. He posted an ugly 5.89 ERA in a tiny sample of 18 innings there back in 2021 — his first season back from Tommy John surgery. Since then, he’s worked to a 3.47 ERA in 106 1/3 frames with the Giants from 2022-23. Brebbia has worked as a setup man but was also a frequent opener for the Giants. He’s fresh off a career-best 29.2% strikeout rate. In six big league seasons between the Cardinals and Giants, he’s logged a 3.42 ERA with better-than-average strikeout and walk rates of 25.5% and 7.2%, respectively.
Any of the three listed possibilities would come to the Mets with more track record than their signings to date. Mets fans might be frustrated at the lack of high-profile targets for the team outside of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who signed a 12-year contract with the Dodgers, but any of Suter, Peralta or Brebbia would improve the club’s bullpen — likely on relatively short-term deals. That comes with the benefit both of slightly bolstering the roster while also creating the possibility of emerging as a deadline trade candidate in the event that the Mets fall out of the running by July.
Latest On Mets’ Offseason Plans
In a recent mailbag, Tim Britton and Will Sammon of The Athletic fielded questions about the Mets and what remains of the offseason. They report that the club isn’t looking to add to their rotation any further this winter, except perhaps a depth move. They may make an addition at designated hitter, but don’t consider that essential.
The club came into the winter with lots of work to do in addressing the rotation. Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander had been traded prior to the trade deadline in the summer and then Carlos Carrasco became a free agent at season’s end. Shortly thereafter, it was reported that David Peterson underwent hip surgery with the recovery set to last beyond the start of the season. All of that left the club with Kodai Senga and José Quintana in two spots, with depth pieces like Tylor Megill, Joey Lucchesi and José Butto available as well.
But since then, the club has bolstered that group by signing Sean Manaea and Luis Severino, as well as acquiring Adrian Houser from the Brewers. That currently leaves them with a front five of Senga, Quintana, Manaea, Severino and Houser. Each of Megill, Lucchesi and Butto are still optionable, which will likely have them starting in Triple-A until an injury creates a need at the big league level. Peterson also has an option and can be in Triple-A if there’s no room for him in the majors when he’s healthy. It seems the club will go into the season with that as the depth chart, though a minor league signing or waiver claim could still factor in at some point.
The long run is a bit of a different story. Each of Quintana, Severino and Houser are impending free agents. Manaea signed a two-year deal but can opt out after 2024. Senga has four years left on his deal but has an opt-out after 2025, provided he logs at least 400 innings from 2023 to 2025. That gives the Mets very little long-term certainty their rotation.
They do have some prospects who could perhaps enter the picture in the near future, with Mike Vasil, Dominic Hamel, Christian Scott, Blade Tidwell and Tyler Stuart some of the notable prospects that reached at least as high as Double-A in 2023. But per Britton and Sammon, the Mets “are aware that their prospect pool leans toward mid-rotation or back-end starters, and thus that a significant external addition to their rotation sometime in the next two years is necessary.”
Assuming the Mets are shopping for a front line starter next winter, they should have some options. Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Shane Bieber and Walker Buehler currently look to be some of the most exciting names in the free agent class of 2024-25. In terms of veterans, Zack Wheeler, Nathan Eovaldi and Scherzer will be in there as well, with Verlander perhaps joining them depending on the outcome of his vesting option. Robbie Ray can opt out of his deal after the upcoming campaign. Pitchers like Jack Flaherty, Frankie Montas or Severino might have bounceback years and raise their stocks, and the same goes for pitchers with options like Lucas Giolito or Manaea. So much can happen in a year to change a club’s plans but the Mets should be able to find something to their liking, especially with their willingness to spend money.
Turning to the designated hitter situation, the Mets could have some internal options there. The recent signing of Harrison Bader to join Brandon Nimmo in the outfield leaves one spot open on the grass. Starling Marte is the most logical person to line up next to those two, but he’s now 35 and is coming off a frustrating season. He missed almost half the year due to migraines and groin issues, hitting just .248/.301/.324 when in the lineup. Perhaps the Mets will look to get him some semi-rest days via the DH slot. If so, that would leave some outfield playing time for Tyrone Taylor or DJ Stewart. The latter would also be a DH candidate since he’s considered a poor fielder. Mark Vientos will be battling Brett Baty and Joey Wendle for playing time at third but Vientos is also considered weak on defense and could find himself in the DH mix if he hits well enough. Baty hasn’t been graded well for his third base defense in his major league career, for that matter.
That gives the Mets plenty of internal candidates to fill the DH slot, but it’s also possible to see room for an addition. Each of Baty, Vientos and Stewart are still optionable and could find themselves in Triple-A, depending on how things go. That gives the club a path to perhaps bring in a bat. Some of the DH types available in free agency include J.D. Martinez, Joc Pederson, Rhys Hoskins, Jorge Soler, Brandon Belt and Justin Turner. The Mets have previously been connected to Turner and Martinez in rumors this offseason. Turner would arguably be the best fit on the roster since his ability to play some infield means he wouldn’t be strictly limited to a DH role and could allow the club to cycle Marte or anyone else in there. Since Turner is 39 years old, he will also be limited to a short-term deal which will appeal to the Mets, given the way they’ve been operating this winter.
Despite the club’s apparent transition year in 2024, their past spending still has their competitive balance tax figure over the fourth and highest threshold of $297MM. Roster Resource pegs their CBT figure at $321MM right now. As a third-time payor at that level, the Mets will be facing a 110% tax on any further spending. The tax bill won’t be calculated until season’s end, so midseason deals could drop them down, but it seems inevitable that they will be facing another steep bill in the fall. They have shown little hesitation about spending money under owner Steve Cohen but it remains to be seen if they will add another contract to the books when they could give those DH at-bats to internal options.
Mets Sign Harrison Bader
TODAY: Bader’s $10.5MM guarantee breaks down as a $1MM signing bonus and a $9.5MM salary in 2024, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post (X link). Up to $350K in incentive bonuses is also available.
JANUARY 5: The Mets have officially announced that they have signed Bader.
JANUARY 4: The Mets are signing Harrison Bader, reports Andy Martino of SNY. It’s a one-year deal worth approximately $10MM, per Martino. Joel Sherman of The New York Post reports the salary as $10.5MM for the Vayner Sports client.
Bader, 30 in June, is an elite defensive outfielder who has had mixed results as a hitter and has also struggled to stay consistently healthy. Since his debut in 2017, he has racked up 52 Defensive Runs Saved, 68 Outs Above Average and a grade of 46.6 from Ultimate Zone Rating. All three of those figures place him in the top 10 among all outfielders in the league in that time. He’s also stolen 77 bases in 95 tries.
The offensive side of his game is less impressive, however. He’s hit .243/.310/.396 in his career for a wRC+ of 92, indicating he’s been 8% below league average overall. He has been above average at times, posting a wRC+ of 107 in 2018 and a 108 in 2021, but the past two years have been rough. He split 2022 between the Cardinals and Yankees, getting flipped for Jordan Montgomery at the deadline. He finished that year with a batting line of .250/.294/.356 and a wRC+ of just 85. His production fell even further in 2023, as he hit .232/.274/.348 on the year for a wRC+ of 70, going to the Reds late in the year as the Yankees looked to dump salary by putting Bader on waivers.
Health has also been a concern in each of the past three seasons, with Bader getting into 287 games over that stretch, never getting into more than 103 in any of those seasons individually. Those past three seasons have seen him hit the injured list due to a right rib hairline fracture, right foot plantar fasciitis, a left oblique strain, a right hamstring strain and a right groin strain.
The Mets have been planning for 2024 to be a sort of transition year, signing players to modest deals and making other depth moves as new president of baseball operations David Stearns evaluates the organization before likely ramping up aggressiveness next winter. Luis Severino, Joey Wendle, Jorge López, Austin Adams and Michael Tonkin have all joined the roster via one-year pacts, while the club also acquired Adrian Houser and Tyrone Taylor from the Brewers. They have claimed Penn Murfee, Zack Short, Tyler Heineman and Cooper Hummel off waivers and given out a number of minor league deals.
Bader will fit into that strategy while bolstering the outfield mix. His strong defense will allow Brandon Nimmo, whose defensive grades dipped in 2023, to spend a bit more time in a corner. Bader also has notable platoon splits, which could perhaps allow the Mets to deploy him selectively. He has hit .262/.330/.494 against lefties in his career for a wRC+ of 121, but .236/.304/.364 against righties for a wRC+ of 82. Nimmo hits from the left side but also fares well against pitchers of either handedness. DJ Stewart is a lefty hitter who mashes righties and is a poor defender to boot, meaning he and Bader could nicely augment each other’s weaknesses.
The outfield picture now includes Bader, Nimmo, Stewart, Taylor and Starling Marte. Nimmo and Marte have injury histories of their own, so perhaps the Mets will use the designated hitter slot to give out occasional rest days and keep everyone healthy over the course of the season.
MLBTR predicted Bader for a two-year, $20MM deal, perhaps with an opt out that would allow him to return to the open market with a better offensive platform. Instead, he lands a straight one-year pact at roughly the same average annual value. The one-year, $10.5MM framework is the exact same as the deal between Kevin Kiermaier, another glove-first outfielder, and the Blue Jays.
Despite the relatively modest offseason, the Mets are still way into competitive balance tax territory. Roster Resource has their CBT figure at $307MM, north of the fourth and final bracket of $297MM. As a third-time payor, they are set to pay a 110% tax on any spending above that line, meaning they could end up paying over $20MM for one year of Bader’s services. However, the tax payments aren’t calculated until the end of the year. If the Mets don’t find themselves in contention this summer, they could move some salary by trading players such as Pete Alonso or José Quintana and alter their final tax status.
Mets Sign Sean Manaea To Two-Year Deal
The Mets announced the signing of left-hander Sean Manaea to a two-year contract. It’s reportedly a $28MM guarantee for the Boras Corporation client, who can opt out following the 2024 season. Manaea will make $14.5MM next season, leaving him with a $13.5MM call on the ’25 option.
Manaea, 32 in February, was a first-round pick by the Royals back in 2013 and was swapped to the A’s alongside Aaron Brooks in the 2015 deal that brought Ben Zobrist to Kansas City. The southpaw made his big league debut in Oakland early in the 2016 season and fashioned a solid rookie year for himself with a 3.86 ERA and 4.08 FIP across 144 2/3 innings of work. Manaea continued to provide mid-to-back end of the rotation consistency for Oakland over the next few seasons, and he owned a career 3.94 ERA (105 ERA+) and 4.15 FIP in 464 innings by the end of the 2018 season. Unfortunately, the lefty’s success was interrupted by shoulder surgery late in the 2018 campaign and he missed nearly all of 2019.
Upon his return to action late in the 2019 season, Manaea more or less picked up right where he left off. In 48 starts from 2019-21, the left-hander posted a solid 3.73 ERA (111 ERA+) with a strong 3.64 FIP. During this stretch, Manaea saw his strikeout rate climb considerably. Though he entered the 2019 season with a rate of just 19.2% for his career, the lefty struck out 24.8% of batters faced over the next three seasons while walking just 5.2% and generating a 43.8% groundball rate that was a near match for his 44.1% figure in the first three seasons of his career. With just one year left before the lefty would hit free agency and the team going nowhere in 2022, the A’s shipped Manaea to San Diego as the Padres in a four-player deal, netting a pair of prospects for the left-hander’s services.
Unfortunately, Manaea began to struggle upon departing Oakland. The lefty’s lone season in San Diego was something of a disaster as he struggled to a 4.96 ERA, 24% worse than league average by ERA+, with a 4.53 FIP. Manaea’s strikeout rate dipped to 23.2%, his walk rate climbed to 7.5%, and he generated grounders at a career-worst 38.2% clip. While the southpaw mostly looked like himself in the first half of the season, with a 4.11 ERA and 4.07 FIP in 100 2/3 innings of work (17 starts), that production fell off a cliff down the stretch as he allowed a whopping 6.44 ERA over his final 13 contests. Those struggles led Manaea to sign a two-year, $25MM deal with the Giants last offseason that gave him the option to return to the free agent market this winter.
At first, Manaea’s time with the Giants saw similarly disastrous results as his final outings with the Padres the previous year. The lefty was booted from the club’s rotation in early May and by mid-June had put together a 5.84 ERA in 49 1/3 frames as opposing batters teed off to the tune of a hefty .474 slugging percentage. However, as MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald noted in a recent profile of Manaea, the lefty added a sweeper to his repertoire at the end of May and found massive success with it. Hitters struggled to a .140/.161/.163 slash line against the pitch, swinging and missing at it 35.1% of the times it was thrown.
After adding the sweeper, Manaea quickly found more success with the Giants. He pitched to a solid 3.78 ERA with a fantastic 3.26 FIP in his final 81 frames of the season, and excelled in a late-season return to the rotation with a 2.25 ERA and 3.21 FIP in four September starts. After adding the sweeper midseason, Manaea punched out 24.2% of batters faced while walking 6.6% and generating grounders at a 44% clip reminiscent of his days in Oakland. While the majority of that success came in multi-inning relief, the lefty nonetheless flashed the form that made him a successful mid-rotation arm earlier in his career.
The strong late-season results led Manaea to decline his $12.5MM player option with the Giants and return to the open market. The decision worked out well for the southpaw, as his $28MM pact with the Mets comes with an AAV of $14MM and the ability to return to opt out of the deal once again next winter should he choose to do so. Manaea slightly outperformed the two-year, $22MM prediction MLBTR offered when ranking him 35th on our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, earning an additional $3MM annually over the same term. The deal is mostly in line with the market for back-end starters this offseason, which has seen the likes of Nick Martinez ($26MM) and Kenta Maeda ($24MM) earn similar guarantees on two-year arrangements.
By adding Manaea, the club adds another veteran arm to a rotation mix that parted ways with both Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander at the trade deadline last summer. The southpaw figures to return to starting full-time in joining the Mets, slotting into the middle of the club’s rotation behind incumbents Kodai Senga and Jose Quintana and ahead of fellow offseason additions Luis Severino and Adrian Houser. The addition of Manaea allows the club to utilize the likes of Tylor Megill, Joey Lucchesi and Jose Butto as depth options at the Triple-A level or in the club’s bullpen. The same figures to go for lefty David Peterson when he returns from offseason hip surgery sometime next summer.
The Mets were already over the highest luxury tax threshold of $297MM prior to signing Manaea, That means his full $14MM is part of the Mets’ overage coming into 2024. Assuming they remain over the highest tax threshold all season, the club figures to pay $15.8MM in taxes on Manaea’s salary next season, meaning the club effectively figures to pay $29.8MM for the lefty’s services in 2024. Of course, that’s unlikely to be much of a concern for the Mets as the club paid over $100MM into the luxury tax this past season. With the club’s rotation mix now likely settled, the Mets figure to continue searching for help at third base, DH and in the bullpen going forward.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported the Mets were signing Manaea to a two-year, $28MM guarantee with an opt-out. The Associated Press reported the salary breakdown.
Mets Claim Diego Castillo From Diamondbacks
The Mets announced that they have claimed infielder Diego Castillo off waivers from the Diamondbacks. The latter club had designated him assignment two weeks ago when they made their signing of Lourdes Gurriel Jr. official. DFA limbo normally only lasts a week but the clock is paused for the week from Christmas to New Year’s. The Mets’ 40-man roster is up to 39, but it will be full once their deal with Harrison Bader is announced.
Not to be confused with the 29-year-old reliever of the same name who recently signed with the Rangers, this Castillo is a 26-year-old infielder. He was once a Yankees prospect, though that club flipped him to Pittsburgh in the Clay Holmes trade. The Pirates designated him for assignment just over a year ago and traded him to the Diamondbacks.
Between the Bucs and D’Backs, he has 284 major league plate appearances but has hit just .205/.250/.380 in those. He’s fared much better in the minors, including last year. In 556 plate appearances for Arizona’s Triple-A club in 2023, Castillo walked more than he struck out, a 17.4% walk rate compared to a 14.2% strikeout rate. He only hit three home runs but slashed .313/.431/.410 for a wRC+ of 117. He also stole 13 bases and suited up at the three infield positions to the left of first base, as well as left field.
The Mets have been focused on depth this winter, claiming Penn Murfee, Zack Short, Tyler Heineman, Cooper Hummel and now Castillo off waivers in order to bolster their depth in various places. They’ve also given out one-year deals to Bader, Luis Severino, Joey Wendle, Jorge López, Austin Adams and Michael Tonkin.
Castillo still has an option and won’t need to be guaranteed an active roster spot. He can give the club extra depth around the infield, where the Mets will have Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil and Francisco Lindor in regular roles. The third base job is likely up for grabs, with Brett Baty, Mark Vientos and Wendle in the mix for playing time there. Castillo and Short figure to be in depth roles who can fill in at various spots throughout the year as injuries dictate.
Mets Showing Interest In Various Starting Pitchers
The Mets are interested in rotation upgrades and appear to be casting a wide net in that search. Jon Heyman of The New York Post lists Hyun Jin Ryu, Sean Manaea and Shota Imanaga as pitchers they are considering. A report from Joel Sherman of The New York Post echoes those names while also adding Dylan Cease and Brandon Woodruff to the list.
The club has already made a couple of moves to bolster a rotation that has changed a lot in the past year. Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander were traded at last year’s deadline, then Carlos Carrasco reached free agency. The depth also took a hit when it was reported that David Peterson required hip surgery that would prevent him from being with the club at the start of the upcoming season.
That left Kodai Senga and José Quintana as the two leading incumbents at the start of the offseason, with pitchers like Tylor Megill and Joey Lucchesi also on hand as options. The Mets have signed since Luis Severino to a one-year deal and acquired Adrian Houser in a trade with the Brewers. Those two likely push Megill and Lucchesi into a battle for the fifth spot in the rotation, but Sherman relays that the club would like to add one more arm and push those two further into depth roles. Both pitchers are still optionable and don’t need to be on the active roster if the pitching staff if strengthened.
New president of baseball operations David Stearns is plenty familiar with Woodruff from his time in Milwaukee. He would be more of a long-term play though, unlikely to help the 2024 club too much. He underwent shoulder surgery in October and is slated to miss most of the upcoming campaign, which led the Brewers to non-tender him. But with the Mets looking at 2024 as a sort of transition year with an eye towards more aggressive contention in 2025, perhaps the two sides can line up on some kind of two-year deal. That would allow Woodruff to bank some money while rehabbing and then give the Mets the upside of bolstering their club next year.
If Woodruff can overcome his shoulder woes and return to his previous form, he would upgrade any rotation in the league. He has a career earned run average of 3.10 in 680 1/3 innings dating back to his 2017 debut. He has struck out 28.9% of batters faced in that time while walking just 6.5% of them and keeping 42.8% of balls in play on the ground. Health has been a bit of an ongoing issue, as he’s never been able to throw 180 innings in a big league season, but the results on a rate basis have clearly been excellent.
As for Cease, his ERA flared up to 4.58 in 2023 but his peripherals were still above average, including a 27.3% strikeout rate and 13.6% swinging strike rate. Over the past three years, he has made 97 starts with a 3.54 ERA and 29.8% strikeout rate. He tallied 12.6 wins above replacement over those three seasons, according to FanGraphs, which puts him eighth on the pitching leaderboard for that stretch.
He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a salary of $8.8MM this year and will be due one more raise before becoming a free agent after 2025. That means he will be paid way less than a pitcher of similar skill who is looking for a free agent deal, but it also means the White Sox are setting a very high asking price. It was reported last month that they asked the Reds for four of that club’s top prospects in exchange for Cease. The Reds seem to have given up on the pursuit, signing Frankie Montas instead.
For the Mets, giving up a significant prospect package like that would be a surprise. They have been open about their desire to build a strong prospect pipeline in order to ensure continuous contention and have been even more focused on the long-term plan this offseason. Though Sherman says the Mets continue to check in with the White Sox, the Mets aren’t considered as likely to land him as a team flush with prospects like the Orioles.
Ryu, 37 in March, would line up with the club’s offseason M.O., as they have given out one-year deals to Severino, Harrison Bader, Joey Wendle, Jorge López, Austin Adams and Michael Tonkin. It appears to be a strategy of spreading money around and improving depth while not committing any future money. It’s also possible that any player in this batch who plays well will end up on the trading block if the Mets are out of contention a few months from now.
Given Ryu’s age and recent health history, he is likely looking at a one-year deal as well. He missed most of 2022 recovering from Tommy John surgery, though he did return last year and toss 52 innings for the Blue Jays with a 3.46 ERA. His 17% strikeout rate was below average but he limited walks to a 6.3% rate and kept 45.6% of balls in play on the ground. He may have been a bit lucky to keep as many runs from scoring as he did, given his .272 batting average on balls in play and 77.6% strand rate. ERA estimators such as his 4.91 FIP and 4.69 SIERA weren’t as enthused with his performance. On the other hand, perhaps he could shake off some more rust and have better results this year now that he’s further removed from his surgery. As recently as 2020, he finished in the top three in American League Cy Young voting.
Manaea, 32 in February, is coming off a couple of shaky years in terms of results. He has been a solid mid-rotation option in his career but his ERA jumped to 4.96 in 2022 and was at 4.44 last year. Digging into his most recent campaign provides more reason for optimism, something recently explored here at MLBTR. Notably, Manaea added a sweeper to his arsenal in late May and had significantly better results, 6.61 ERA before and 3.60 ERA after adding that pitch. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Manaea could land a two-year, $22MM deal this winter.
As for Imanaga, he stands out from the other names on this list as he seems slated for a far more lengthy commitment, though the Mets have been connected to him in the past. MLBTR predicted he could land a five-year, $85MM contract, but with recent reporting suggesting he has enough interest to push past $100MM. Sherman throws a bit of cold water on that today, however, suggesting there are concerns around a 2020 shoulder surgery and also how his tendency to work up in the zone might make him homer prone in the majors.
If the market drops, perhaps the Mets will sense an opportunity to bolster their long-term rotation outlook, in contrast to their other moves this winter. Quintana, Severino and Houser are all set to be free agents after 2024, so they have very little rotation certainty going forward. The 30-year-old Imanaga has a 3.18 ERA in his NPB career and just posted a 2.80 mark in 2023. In addition to the Mets, he’s had interest from clubs like the Red Sox, Giants, Yankees and Cubs, though Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reported today that the Cubs aren’t seen as a likely landing spot for the lefty. Imanaga’s posting period end on January 11, giving him less than a week to get a deal done.
Mets Indicating Willingness To Trade Omar Narvaez
The Mets are telling teams they’re open to dealing Omar Narváez, tweets Mike Puma of the New York Post. It’s unclear whether any clubs are interested in the left-handed hitting catcher, although the Mets would very likely have to pay down some portion of his contract to facilitate a move.
It’s the second straight offseason in which New York is looking to move a veteran catcher fairly early into a free agent deal. The Mets surprisingly guaranteed Narváez $15MM over two seasons. He made $8MM last year and had a $7MM player option for 2024. The Narváez pickup led the Mets to cut bait on James McCann two seasons into a four-year, $40MM pact. New York paid all but $5MM of the $24MM remaining on McCann’s deal to offload him to the Orioles.
The Narváez signing wasn’t as costly as the McCann acquisition. It started similarly poorly, however. Narváez suffered a significant strain of his left calf within the season’s first two weeks. He was sidelined into June. By the time he returned, rookie Francisco Álvarez had taken over as the starter. Narváez was pushed into a depth role and didn’t perform well.
In 49 games, Narváez hit .211/.283/.297 with a pair of home runs. That’s on the heels of a similarly underwhelming .206/.292/.305 line in 296 plate appearances for the Brewers in 2022. Narváez had a solid ’21 campaign (.266/.342/.402 over 445 trips to the plate) but has been a well below-average hitter in three of the past four seasons. It’s a notable step back from 2017-19, when Narváez was somewhat quietly one of the better offensive catchers in MLB.
To his credit, the eight-year veteran has generally improved behind the plate as his numbers at the dish have regressed. Statcast graded Narváez as an above-average pitch framer each season from 2020-22. That reflected a seemingly concerted effort to improve his receiving after being traded from the Mariners to Milwaukee going into the 2020 season. Narváez has never had a great throwing arm, though, which opponents exploited with more favorable baserunning rules last year. He threw out only six of 52 stolen base attempts, an 11.5% success rate that was well off the 19.8% league average.
Between the calf injury and a replacement-level performance, Narváez had an easy decision to exercise his player option. While his path to playing time in Queens is limited, he wouldn’t have found a $7MM contract if he returned to free agency. It’s hard to envision another team taking the full salary in trade either, but the Mets haven’t had many qualms about paying down contracts. They’ve done so with back-of-the-roster players like McCann and Eduardo Escobar and in blockbuster transactions involving Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.
President of baseball operations David Stearns wasn’t involved in the decision to sign Narváez, although he’s familiar with the player from their time in Milwaukee. One of Stearns’ first moves with the Mets was to claim Tyler Heineman off waivers from the Blue Jays. He joins Álvarez and Narváez as the three catchers on the 40-man roster.
Tomás Nido, who has played parts of seven MLB seasons as a Met, remains in the organization after being outrighted in June (a move that coincided with Narváez’s return from the calf strain). Nido hit .281/.336/.393 in 39 games at Triple-A Syracuse after clearing waivers. He’ll make $2.1MM next season as part of a two-year deal he signed to avoid arbitration last offseason.
NL Notes: Miley, Reds, Mets, Marte, Brewers, Junk
The Reds‘ search for starting pitching help has resulted in deals with Frankie Montas and Nick Martinez, while the team has been linked to several other pitchers who either remain available (in trades or in free agency) or have since landed elsewhere. MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon reports that one of those now-signed pitching targets included Wade Miley, as Cincinnati had some talks with the veteran left-hander before Miley re-signed with the Brewers.
There’s plenty of familiarity between the two sides, as Miley pitched for the Reds in 2020-21 and posted a 3.55 ERA over 177 1/3 innings. The Reds held a $10MM club option on his services for 2022, yet as part of a payroll cutback, Cincinnati put Miley on waivers (where he was quickly claimed by the Cubs) in order to part ways without even paying the $1MM buyout on that option. Miley has since posted a 3.15 ERA in 157 1/3 innings with Chicago and Milwaukee since the start of the 2022 campaign, though injuries again limited his availability.
Miley received $8.5MM in guaranteed money in his one-year deal with the Brewers, and the Reds went beyond that price range in their one-year, $16MM deal with Montas. With $106.2MM spent so far this winter, Cincinnati has been one of the offseason’s busier teams in free agency, and it seems possible the Reds might not be done with their efforts to bolster the pitching staff.
More from around the National League…
- The Mets have added several relievers this offseason, including Jorge Lopez, Michael Tonkin, Austin Adams, and a spate of pitchers signed to minor league contracts. However, “a more robust signing for the bullpen shouldn’t be ruled out,” The Athletic’s Will Sammon writes, after the Mets address some more pressing needs. Those hoping for a reunion between Josh Hader and David Stearns in Queens may be out of luck since New York isn’t expected to pursue any long-term deals until at least next offseason, yet the Mets could still look to add a prominent reliever without necessarily shopping at the very top of the free agent market.
- In other Mets news, Sammon writes that Starling Marte may play some winter ball in his native Dominican Republic this month, as the outfielder is looking to get back to full fitness after an injury-plagued pair of seasons. Marte battled through leg and groin injuries in 2022 and underwent surgery on both groins following that season, then hit only .248/.301/.324 over 341 plate appearances and 86 games in 2023. In addition to some lingering after-effects from his groin surgery, Marte also missed time due to a neck strain, migraines, and then another groin strain that brought his season to a close on August 7. Marte is therefore a question mark as he heads into his age-35 season, and the Mets’ recent acquisition of Tyrone Taylor might not be the last outfield add the club makes, Sammon observes.
- Janson Junk has started seven of his nine career MLB games and 86 of his 112 career minor league appearances, but Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel wonders if Junk’s future might ultimately be as a relief pitcher. In the second of his two Major League appearances with the Brewers last season, Hogg noted that Junk’s fastball twice hit 96mph on the radar gun, a significant step beyond his 92.1mph fastball velocity in Triple-A. If this extra velo is sustainable in a more limited relief capacity, Junk’s fastball suddenly become a more dangerous pitch, perhaps making him an interesting bullpen candidate since he can pair that upgraded heater with a solid curveball. Teams usually don’t look to transition starting pitchers to relief work unless circumstances or performance demands because rotation depth is so valuable, yet should Junk (who has a 4.07 ERA and middling secondary metrics over 495 1/3 career minor league innings) get some looks as a reliever, it might help him more firmly find a niche in the majors.