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Quick Hits: Arenado, Int’l Prospects, Jones, CarGo, Bauer, Storen, Marlins

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Nolan Arenado’s extension talks with the Rockies could create a big impact around baseball, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand writes in an exploration of both the short-term and long-term effects of an Arenado deal.  Most obviously, an extension would remove arguably the biggest name from the 2019-20 free agent class, which would be a boon to other stars who will be hitting the open market — in particular, Anthony Rendon would see his biggest competition in the third base market disappear.  (Of course, Rendon could also ink his own long-term deal to stay with the Nationals.)  More immediately, an Arenado extension could also set a new benchmark for Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, should Arenado and the Rockies come to an agreement before Harper or Machado land contracts this winter.

Some stray items from around baseball as we head into the new week…

  • Ten of the top names available in the 2019-20 international signing market are profiled by Baseball America’s Ben Badler, all of whom have teams already unofficially attached to their services even though the market doesn’t properly open until July 2.  Dominican outfielder Jasson Dominguez and Dominican shortstop Robert Puason are projected for the highest bonuses, each expected to land something around $5MM, with Dominguez linked to the Yankees and Puason connected to the Athletics.
  • While the Indians are still looking for outfield help, the team isn’t currently “aggressively pursuing” Adam Jones or Carlos Gonzalez, MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi reports.  Both veterans were only moderately productive in 2018, both with below-average offensive numbers (as per wRC+) and Jones with some of the worst defensive metrics (minus-18 Defensive Runs Saved, -14.8 UZR/150) of any center fielder in baseball.  That said, both players could still represent an upgrade for Cleveland’s shaky outfield, though it appears the Tribe is checking other options for now.
  • Trevor Bauer’s arbitration hearing took place on Friday, Cleveland.com’s Paul Hoynes reports, so details should soon emerge about the outcome.  There was a $2MM gap between Bauer and the Indians in exchanged figures, as Bauer’s camp is looking for a $13MM salary in 2019 and the team is aiming for an $11MM salary.  This will be the second arb hearing in as many years between the two sides, as Bauer defeated the Tribe in the hearing last winter to land his desired $6.525MM salary for the 2018 season.  Like Kluber, Bauer has also been a major figure in trade rumors this offseason.  He has one less year of team control than Kluber and a less-extensive track record, though Bauer is also almost five years younger than his rotation mate.
  • The Royals have interest in veteran righty Drew Storen, The Athletic’s Jayson Stark reports (Twitter link).  Storen didn’t pitch last season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in September 2017.  The 31-year-old was a key figure in the Nationals’ bullpen from 2010-15, though he suffered through a disastrous half-season stint with the Blue Jays in 2016 before righting the ship after a July trade to the Mariners.  Prior to his injury, Storen had a 4.45 ERA, 7.9 K/9, and 2.09 K/BB rate over 54 2/3 innings out of the Reds’ bullpen in 2017.  Storen won’t carry a heavy price tag as he makes his return from TJ surgery, making him a target for payroll-conscious Kansas City.
  • “Every trade, we’re trying to get back international money,” Marlins president of baseball operations Michael Hill told reporters, including Barry Jackson and Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald.  It’s clear that the international market is a cornerstone of Miami’s rebuilding process, and the club has been successful in landing extra money for their int’l draft pool in recent trades with the Astros, Reds, Nationals, and (as part of the J.T. Realmuto trade package) Phillies.  These extra funds have already paid dividends, as the Marlins signed highly-touted Cuban brothers Victor Victor Mesa and Victor Mesa Jr. last October.

AL East Notes: Steinbrenner, Jays, Romo, Rays, Orioles

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After the Yankees worked to get under the luxury tax limit last offseason, many New York fans expected a classic Bronx Bombers spending spree this winter, particularly with Bryce Harper and Manny Machado in the free agent market.  While that type of splurge hasn’t happened, Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner rejected criticism that his team hasn’t been willing to spend.  “I mean, we’re well above $200 million [in payroll] — we’re at $220 [million] right now — and we’re well above where we were last year,” Steinbrenner told ESPN News Services and other outlets.  (Roster Resource projects the Yankees’ at a little under $203MM in dollars, though at just over $217MM in terms of luxury tax value.)

“I think we’ve definitely got a better club Opening Day than we did opening day last year, particularly in pitching, which is my biggest area of concern,” Steinbrenner said.  In regards to the argument that the Yankees’ enormous revenues should necessitate a league-high payroll, Steinbrenner also pointed to the team’s high costs, as well as future money that is being earmarked to retain members of its young core.  That said, Steinbrenner also didn’t rule out the possibility of more notable additions: “I’m never done until I’m done, and that’s usually not until Opening Day.  Proposals come to me every day with these guys, between the analytics guys and the pro scouting guys, and I’m going to consider every single one of them.”

Here’s more from around the AL East…

  • The Blue Jays have shown interest in veteran reliever Sergio Romo, Fancred Sports’ Jon Heyman tweeted earlier this week.  Romo is close to signing a new contract, as per Heyman’s earlier reports, though the mystery team may not necessarily be Toronto, as multiple clubs have been engaged in pursuit of the right-hander.  Romo, who turns 36 next month, posted a 4.14 ERA, 3.75 K/BB rate, and 10.0 K/9 over 67 1/3 innings for Tampa Bay last season, which included 25 saves and five “starts” as the Rays’ opener.  It isn’t out of the question that the Jays could also look to deploy Romo as an opener, given the number of young arms in Toronto’s starting mix as well as the veterans (Aaron Sanchez, Marcus Stroman, Clayton Richard, Matt Shoemaker) who carry some injury-related question marks.  It’s probably more likely, however, that the Jays see Romo as an experienced bullpen addition, in the same vein as their signings of Seunghwan Oh, J.P. Howell, and Joe Smith in the last two offseasons.  By that same ilk, Romo could also become a trade chip for Toronto by midseason.
  • The Rays are on the verge of a new TV contract that should be finalized sometime during the 2019 season, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.  The team’s last deal with Fox Sports Sun expired at the end of last season, and the two sides have agreed to “basically…a placeholder deal” for the coming year while the new contract is completed.  Some notable obstacles remain, however, such as the exact length of the deal, as well as bigger-picture issues as the sale of Fox Sports Sun and other regional Fox cable networks, plus how the threat of the Rays leaving the Tampa/St. Petersburg area could impact the contract.  “There still things in flux,” Rays principal owner Stuart Sternberg said, though “It’s going to happen. There’s a structure of a deal.”  Exact figures of the new contract aren’t likely to be revealed, though Sternberg estimates the Rays will rank around 20th of the 30 teams in terms of TV revenue — the previous contract paid the Rays around $30MM per season, ranking them near the bottom of the league.  Previous reports indicated that the Rays would earn $82MM per year on the next contract, though Sternberg says the actual total is “well, well, well under” that figure, and some of the expected increase has already gone into player payroll.  “Much of the reason we’ve spent all that we have is because we knew we had some more revenue (coming) off of TV. Unfortunately [the contract is] going to fall reasonably short of what we anticipated four years ago,” Sternberg said.
  • Under GM Mike Elias, the revamped Orioles’ front office has taken a big step towards modern statistical analysis, though some seeds towards this direction were planted last summer before Elias was hired.  As Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun notes, several young pitchers acquired by the O’s last summer were obtained from teams (such as the Dodgers, Braves, and Yankees) that have already embraced analytics, leaving the prospects already well-versed in modern data and eager to learn more.  “I’m big into the new analytics and stuff like that, so I like to see the data that I produce, I guess, with how my pitches play off each other,” said right-hander Dean Kremer, one of the youngsters Baltimore acquired from Los Angeles in the Manny Machado trade in July.

Catcher Notes: Posey, Giants, G. Sanchez, Athletics

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A few notes from behind the plate…

  • When Giants stalwart Buster Posey underwent season-ending hip surgery last August, there was some question as to whether he’d be ready in time for Opening Day this year. While Posey’s recovery has seemingly gone well enough for him to return at the outset of the season, the Giants are going to take a “smart” and “careful” approach as they break the six-time All-Star back into action, according to president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi (via Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area). “Even if he’s ready to carry a full catching load to start the season, I’m not sure that would be the prudent course for us,” noted Zaidi, who added that the Giants are still in the market for depth at catcher. They did sign the seasoned Rene Rivera on Friday, but he only secured a minor league deal, which still leaves the Giants with Posey and Aramis Garcia as the only catchers on their 40-man roster. Of course, they also have experienced veteran Cameron Rupp joining Rivera as credible depth heading into camp.
  • The Yankees’ Gary Sanchez is also coming off surgery, having undergone an offseason procedure on his left (non-throwing) shoulder. Sanchez is now “healthy,” per general manager Brian Cashman (via George A. King III of the New York Post), but the Yanks will mimic the Giants in being cautious with their prized backstop this spring. The 26-year-old Sanchez joined Posey among the majors’ elite catchers from 2017-18, though the former’s now looking to bounce back from a shockingly rough season. Sanchez bombed at the plate, hitting .186/.291/.406 (89 wRC+) in 374 trips, and also drew the ire of fans and media for leading the American League in passed balls (18).
  • It’s “unlikely” the Athletics will enter the season with their current catcher tandem of Josh Phegley and Chris Herrmann, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. Ultimately, the A’s may take a similar route to the one they went down last spring, when they signed a veteran (Jonathan Lucroy) in March, but the team could have a greater sense of urgency this time around because it’s leaving for Japan on March 14, Slusser notes. Free-agent backstop options are dwindling, moreover, though at least one of the available players – Matt Wieters – has piqued the Athletics’ interest.

Fallout From The J.T. Realmuto Trade

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Following a merciful coda to the offseason’s most protracted soap opera – a fine Philly offer, agreed upon Thursday, that finally plucked former Marlin catcher J.T. Realmuto from the clutches of South Beach – each of the oft-snubbed clubs offered their final say.

We’ll start in Atlanta, in whose court the Realmuto ball seemed to linger longest – indeed, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network, the team needed only to surrender two from the group of Austin Riley, Cristian Pache, and one top pitching prospect (of which Atlanta has several: each of Mike Soroka, Ian Anderson, Touki Toussaint, Bryse Wilson, Kyle Wright, and Joey Wentz are top 100 prospects in at least one major outlet). Ozzie Albies, said to be an essential part of any Realmuto deal with Atlanta, was never a demanded centerpiece, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Though certainly a substantial return, it’s a package that can’t be said, by any reasonable analysis, to be one that would have stripped the farm of the suddenly-conservative Braves to the bone.

The ask of the Dodgers, ever-cautious themselves, was two from a group of Dustin May, Keibert Ruiz, Gavin Lux, and Will Smith, per Heyman, in the same tweet. Ruiz and Smith, both catchers, likely won’t ever be on the field together at Chavez Ravine, and some outlets ranked neither May nor Lux inside the top 100. Both Heyman and Rosenthal concede that Cody Bellinger was the prize on which Miami initially laid its eyes, but it appears the team quickly swiveled to less-established names in the weeks to follow.

Rosenthal confirms earlier reports that the Fish first coveted outfielder Michael Conforto or Amed Rosario from the Mets, and adds that the team also needed a “top shortstop prospect,” presumably Andres Gimenez, to be added to the deal. It doesn’t appear the club pivoted to other names after the Mets balked, likely owing to the thinned-out version of the late-offseason Mets farm.

From the Yankees, the club did seek Gary Sanchez and Miguel Andujar, per Rosenthal, but only part of a “larger deal” that would obviously have included additional pieces. The Bombers were understandably reluctant to trade either, and the wheat of the Yankee farm – stocked mostly with high-upside, low-level types – wouldn’t have been enough to secure Realmuto’s services. The reported three-team with the Mets that would have sent Noah Syndergaard to New York was bandied about, but a copacetic swap was “never close.”

Cincinnati was both late to the fore and hesitant to move any of its top three prospects, per Rosenthal, and it doesn’t appear a deal was close there, either. Perhaps surprisingly, given the intense scrutiny of the talks, both the Twins and White Sox were “in the mix,” though prospective returns and/or offers are still in the dark.

In the end, Miami seems more than content with its return. The Fish regarded Will Stewart, the trade’s third piece, as Philadelphia’s second-best pitching prospect, per Rosenthal, ahead of near-unanimous top-100 hurler Adonis Medina, righty Spencer Howard, who placed 52nd on Keith Law’s list, and lefty JoJo Romero (66th overall, per Law). Sixto Sanchez, of course, has a decent shot to be an ace, and it’s certainly true that the club could reap more value in Jorge Alfaro alone than it would in the next two seasons with Realmuto behind the dish. The oft-pilloried asks, long said to far outstrip the two-year value of the game’s premier offseason trade target, were, in most respects, perfectly reasonable, and may have quickly been met in eras bygone. This, though, is the time for prospect hoarding, an age in which the control is treasured above all else, and those with even the slightest chance to be stars are stashed deep away, brought out only for the most earnest of window shoppers.

Giants Have “Talked About” Pursuing Jacoby Ellsbury Trade

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The Giants have at least “talked about” swinging a deal with the Yankees involving outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury, according to Buster Olney of ESPN.com (Twitter links). Details of any negotiations remain unknown, as is the seriousness of the Giants’ interest.

Given Ellsbury’s cost, and the fact that he missed all of the 2018 season, the concept would only conceivably make sense if it involved a big, bad contract going back east. The Giants certainly do have some underperforming deals on the books, including Johnny Cueto ($68MM over three years, including buyout on 2022 option), Jeff Samardzija ($36MM over two years), Brandon Belt ($48MM over three years), Mark Melancon ($28MM over two years), and Evan Longoria ($61.5MM over four years, including buyout on 2023 option and excluding portion owed by the Rays).

Olney speculates that Cueto might make sense as a return piece, so long as the sides could even up the anticipated money somehow. Ellsbury is still owed just over $47MM over the next two seasons, including a buyout in a 2021 option. In theory, Ellsbury would step into the Giants’ barren outfield mix, assuming he’s able to get healthy, while the Yanks would collect insurance proceeds on Cueto until he’s ready to return from Tommy John surgery. (Ellsbury’s contract is also insured to some extent; the Yanks reportedly collected on it last year.)

It’s worth adding that the competitive balance tax hits for both players are quite similar, as both check in just under $22MM. That’s a key consideration for both of these teams, each of which is seemingly attempting to stay beneath the luxury line.

While there’s arguably some outward appeal to the concept — which, to reiterate, was presented only as a hypothetical — it seems like a questionable idea from the Giants’ perspective. Ellsbury was fading hard even before he missed all of 2018. While he was still a useful player, he likely profiles at best as a heavily utilized platoon man at this stage. At 35 years of age, Ellsbury comes with limited upside. Cueto had certainly not been at his best even before going under the knife, but he threw 219 2/3 innings of 2.79 ERA ball in 2016 and is still a few days away from his 33rd birthday. While the Giants might well like to take a shot on Ellsbury as a veteran piece, it seems much likelier that Cueto will end up returning something close to the value of his remaining earnings. With three pending free agents in the current rotation, the Giants will surely have a use for him, too. Perhaps it’s fair to think, then, that the Yanks would have to sweeten such a deal with young talent.

It’s interesting to wonder whether other permutations could instead be pursued. Samardzija might give the Yankees some desired rotation depth and could be an interesting candidate to work in a long relief role. He comes with a lesser tax hit of $18MM, but perhaps the deal could include a veteran reliever and deliver more young talent back to the Giants. There are certainly plenty of ways to sketch out tax-neutral scenarios, though at the end of the day it all depends just how interested the Giants really are in having Ellsbury on their roster — and how motivated the Yankees are to send him out. And the veteran outfielder will also have a say himself, as he enjoys full no-trade protection.

AL East Notes: Orioles, Sanchez, Farquhar, Pham

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Cuban shortstop Yolbert Sanchez will formally be eligible to sign with teams beginning tomorrow, and Joe Trezza of MLB.com looks at the Orioles’ chances of signing the soon-to-be 22-year-old. While Baltimore’s level of interest in Sanchez isn’t fully clear to this point, they still have to be considered the favorite to add Sanchez given that their near-$6MM international pool is more than four times larger than the next-largest pool: the Dodgers’ $1.4MM. Trezza spoke to one non-Orioles exec who likened Sanchez to a second- or third-round pick in terms of overall talent, given his limited offensive potential but quality glove and speed. Still, while he may not be an elite prospect, Sanchez looks like the best international talent on the board at the moment, and the O’s have the spending capacity to trounce any offer made during the current signing period. Sanchez could, alternatively, wait until July 2 to sign, which would open the field up considerably.

Elsewhere in the division…

  • Right-hander Danny Farquhar discussed his remarkable comeback in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (Twitter link, with audio). Farquhar, who recently inked a minor league contract with the Yankees, was fighting for his life 10 months ago after suffering a brain aneurysm in the White Sox’ dugout. Soon to turn 32, Farquhar acknowledged that he’s lucky to be alive but also put a positive spin on his harrowing medical status, noting that in the time since recovering, he’s been able to dedicate himself solely to training. While this time of year brings about frequent “best shape of his life” stories, Farquhar’s is certainly of more note than most others given a recent near-death experience. While the Yankees’ bullpen will be a tough one to crack, Farquhar can either head to Triple-A as a depth option if he doesn’t make the roster or, potentially, attract the interest of another team with a strong spring showing for the Yankees.
  • Outfielder Tommy Pham’s arbitration hearing with the Rays is set to take place today, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. Pham logged a ridiculous .333/.448/.622 slash with seven homers, seven doubles and six triples in 174 plate appearances with Tampa Bay following last summer’s trade from the Cardinals organization. He’d struggled previously in St. Louis, though his combined .275/.367/.464 slash between the two teams was still quite strong. Pham filed for a $4.1MM salary, while the Rays countered at $3.5MM — as can be seen in MLBTR’s 2019 Arbitration Tracker.

Poll: Projecting Luke Voit’s 2019

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Among major leaguers who finished with at least 150 plate appearances in 2018, future Hall of Famer Mike Trout unsurprisingly led the way in wRC+ (191). But who finished second? Was it AL MVP Mookie Betts, NL MVP Christian Yelich or another big-name superstar? No, it was Luke Voit, who put up a 187 wRC+ in 161 PAs divided between the Cardinals and Yankees. Voit took a mere 13 trips to the plate until late July, when New York acquired him from St. Louis for a pair of relievers, and then proceeded to give the first baseman-needy Yankees an answer at the position over the final couple months of the season.

During his first 148 PAs as a Yankee, the burly, boisterous Voit batted a video game-like .322/.398/.671 with a Ruthian ISO (.350) and 15 home runs. And Statcast backed up Voit’s production, ranking the soon-to-be 28-year-old first in barrels per plate appearance and expected weighted on-base average (.437) among those who racked up at least 150 PAs on the season. While Voit benefited from a .365 batting average on balls in play, a number he may not approach again, the Yankees are understandably optimistic he’s good enough to serve as their No. 1 option at first going forward.

This has been an active offseason in the infield for New York, which has signed DJ LeMahieu and Troy Tulowitzki while showing interest in Manny Machado, but the team has been quiet at first base. Despite Voit’s limited track record, the right-handed slugger’s incredible showing toward the end of 2018 has made him the odds-on favorite to start at first in 2019 for the Yankees, whose previous long-term hope, the lefty-swinging Greg Bird, has fallen short of expectations because of a spate of injuries and less-than-stellar overall production. The Yankees have been bullish on Bird, but he missed all of 2016 because of a shoulder injury, and then produced very little from 2017-18 while dealing with foot problems. His horrific 2018 campaign made it necessary for the World Series-contending Yankees to address first, where they ultimately chose to turn to Voit over the summer.

While it’s still too soon to give up on the 26-year-old Bird, he may not receive regular playing time with the Yankees again unless Voit falls flat. Although Bird was a much better prospect than Voit during their younger days, there’s no doubt the latter has been the superior major leaguer to this point. Consequently, as the Yankees prepare for a championship push, they’ll continue with Voit at first, undoubtedly hoping last season wasn’t a mirage and they’ve acquired a star-caliber hitter for next to nothing.

The Steamer projection system doesn’t expect the 2019 version of Voit to serve as an offensive force, though, as it predicts he’ll wind up with an above-average but hardly world-beating .262/.335/.458 line. That would make for a .793 OPS, far better than what Yankees first basemen managed from 2016-18 but also much less impressive than the production Voit offered during his abbreviated showing last season. Now that he’s the Yankees’ preferred choice at first, how do you expect Voit to perform in 2019?

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Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Notes: Phillies, Yanks, Giants, Gonzalez

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While we already know this through observation, Phillies GM Matt Klentak made clear again that his organization intends to remain patient in its blockbuster free agent pursuits, as Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia recently reported. Klentak says he won’t be rushed into a decision by the onset of camp, saying that there’s no “deadline” to get a deal done before Spring Training. Generally, he said, “The fans are well aware that we’re pursuing the top end of free agency. When that’s going to resolve itself, we don’t really know.”

As we wait for some movement at the top of the market — particularly, regarding reputed Phillies targets Bryce Harper and Manny Machado — let’s check in on a few other situations further down the priority list, all courtesy of MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (links to Twitter) …

  • The Yankees still want to boost their rotation depth, Heyman says, though it’s a bit unclear as of yet how they’ll go about doing so. He lists Gio Gonzalez and Ervin Santana as at-least-hypothetical targets, but it stands to reason that both will want to sign somewhere that they’ll be promised a rotation spot. Gonzalez is one of the best remaining starters and should have little trouble finding at least a clear rotation placement, if not a multi-year deal. Santana does seem to be an interesting bounceback candidate, but he’ll surely be seeking a chance to take the ball every fifth day, which the Yanks can’t promise.
  • Unsurprisingly, the Giants appear to be hunting for value on the market in their search for a new slate of outfielders. That seemed reasonable to suspect when last we checked in on the situation, as the San Francisco organization seemingly wants to remain competitive while also embarking upon an effort to get younger and enhance payroll efficiency. There could be some interesting free agent opportunities, though perhaps the most intriguing possibility would be for the Giants to pick up some pieces that become available after late-breaking signings.
  • The Rockies have some level of interest in yet again bringing back outfielder Carlos Gonzalez, Heyman adds. This particular item is frankly difficult to understand, as the Rox are working with a limited budget and still need to improve behind the dish, in the bullpen, and perhaps on the bench. Meanwhile, the team has a nice assortment of left-handed-hitting outfielders already on hand, making the veteran former star a tough fit on paper. In any event, other teams are also said to be interested in CarGo.

Recovery Notes: Pineda, Nelson, Dubon, Seager, Zimmer

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Michael Pineda has yet to throw a pitch for the Twins, but he’s healthy now and ready to make his Twins debut in 2019, per Betsy Helfand of the Twin Cities Pioneer Press. The Twins signed Pineda to a two-year, $10MM guarantee last December as he worked his way back from Tommy John surgery, hoping he might be ready for the latter half of the season. Just when it looked like Pineda was ready to return, he was diagnosed with a torn meniscus in his knee, ending his season before it began. Injuries have been a constant for Pineda’s career, though he did put together back-to-back healthy campaigns for the Yankees in 2015 and 2016. His overall 4.05 ERA is boosted by a particularly strong rookie campaign, but across 680 innings in Seattle and New York, he did turn in 9.1 K/9 to 2.1 BB/9. The Twins are perhaps the most wait-and-see team in the league, with many volatile assets equally capable of All-Star seasons and bottoming out (Pineda, Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, Jonathan Schoop, among others). With no guaranteed money on the books for 2020, recent speculation has Minnesota as a sleeper team for either Manny Machado or Bryce Harper, but Thad Levine threw some water on that idea, as he believes significant acquisitions of that variety are more appropriate for frontrunners atop a division, rather than a young team on the rise, per MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park (via Twitter). Certainly an interesting take from the Minnesota GM. Now, some more recovery news from around the league…

  • The Brewers will return an intriguing arm to their rotation this spring, as Jimmy Nelson is healthy and ready to go, per Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (via Twitter). Nelson will have no restrictions heading into Spring Training, and he’s not backing down from high expectations either, making clear his goal to get the nod on Opening Day – unlikely as that may be. Nelson put together an impressive campaign in 2017 that launched him to the top of the Milwaukee rotation, but it’s probably best to temper expectations after a torn labrum took his 2018. For Milwaukee, the tide is turning on what was seen as a rickety rotation leading up to the playoffs, as their starting staff now looks to be a source of potential strength. Jhoulys Chacin made himself irreplaceable in their run to the NLCS, and he’s backed by Zach Davies and Chase Anderson, both rebound candidates after subpar seasons. Add Nelson, Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, among others, as contenders to join what now looks like a high-ceiling and deep, if unstable, unit. 
  • Rosiak also notes (via Twitter) that prospects Keston Hiura and Mauricio Dubon are ready for a big year, rested in the former’s case and healthy after ACL surgery in the latter’s. While both will return to big league camp this spring, they’ve been told they won’t be with the team on Opening Day, per the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Tom Haudricourt (via Twitter). None of this should come as a surprise, as it’s become the norm for top prospects to begin their debut seasons in Triple A, but it’s safe to say Hiura, at least, is hopeful to make an impact at the ML level sometime in 2019. Dubon, for his part, was ripping through Triple A before the surgery, hitting .343/.348/.574 in 27 games with Colorado Springs. 
  • Corey Seager hasn’t taken batting practice since his injury last May, but he’s long-tossing in preparation for an important spring back in the middle of the Dodgers infield, per Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. Seager isn’t yet mobilizing for groundballs or throwing across the diamond, but his recovery from Tommy John surgery has gone according to plan thus far and hope remains that he’ll be ready by Opening Day. He’s hitting off a tee, with the next steps being batting practice in the cage before going against live pitching. The Dodgers have the depth to cover for Seager if he’s not ready by Opening Day – with Chris Taylor the most likely stand-in – but he’s obviously a huge part of their team moving forward.
  • The Royals fanbase is still waiting for the long-heralded debut of former top draft choice Kyle Zimmer, but it seems nearly time after he signed a major league contract this winter, per the Kansas City Star’ s Lynn Worthy. Zimmer was the 5th overall pick of the 2012 draft, but he missed the entirety of 2018 while training at the Driveline Baseball pitching program. Even so, he was clocked in the mid-90s this fall, and the Royals weren’t alone in competing for Zimmer’s services, hence the major league contract. Said GM Dayton Moore of the deal, “I would rather have him fail with us than go somewhere else and succeed.” While that’s not exactly a rousing sentiment, and it could be read as vindictive, that does not appear to be Moore’s intent, who praised Zimmer for his mindset and toughness. For Zimmer’s part, he spoke glowingly of the Royals longstanding support and loyalty in his continued journey to toe a major league rubber. If he can stay healthy, there’s opportunity enough for Zimmer to make his debut at Kauffman Stadium sometime in 2019, and despite Moore’s omission of Zimmer’s potential success with the Royals as one of his potential futures, that’s surely the goal for both parties.

Yankees Sign Adam Ottavino

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Jan. 24: The Yankees have formally announced the signing. Ottavino will be paid $8MM annually, tweets Heyman, and he’ll receive a deferred $3MM signing bonus.

Jan. 17, 12:47pm: Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweets that Ottavino will be guaranteed $27MM over the three-year term.

12:42pm :The Yankees have agreed to terms on a contract with free-agent reliever Adam Ottavino, ESPN’s Jeff Passan tweets. Robert Murray and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic had reported seconds prior that the two sides were closing in on an arrangement believed to be worth roughly $25MM over three years (Twitter link). Ottavino is represented by All Bases Covered Sports Management.

Adam Ottavino | Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Ottavino, a New York native who went to high school in Brooklyn, has been connected to the Yankees since before the offseason even began. His addition comes on the heels of a breakout 2018 season with the Rockies in which the 33-year-old righty pitched to a 2.43 ERA with 13.0 K/9, 4.2 BB/9, 0.58 HR/9 and a 43 percent ground-ball rate in 77 2/3 innings of relief.

Ottavino joins an already loaded New York relief corps that features Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, Chad Green and fellow offseason signee Zach Britton. That group is impressive on its own, before even considering 25-year-old righty Jonathan Holder, who may not yet be a household name but has nevertheless emerged as a quality reliever in his own right. Certainly, no bullpen is ever a sure thing to produce, given the year-over-year volatility of relief pitchers, but in terms of sheer talent and upside, there’s arguably no better collection of bullpen arms in baseball right now.

It should be noted that while Ottavino had a career year in 2018, the two prior seasons garnered more mixed results. Ottavino underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2015 and missed the majority of that season as well as a notable chunk of the 2016 campaign. When he returned in July 2016, he was nothing short of excellent, pitching to a 2.67 ERA with a 35-to-7 K/BB ratio and a preposterous 61.9 percent grounder rate in 27 innings.

The 2017 season, however, was brutal for Ottavino, as he averaged 6.6 walks and 1.35 homers per nine innings pitched en route to a 5.06 ERA. Coming off that campaign, few would’ve believed that the righty would put himself in position to score this type of three-year deal on the open market, but his remarkable bounceback effort was an eye-opener. Ottavino’s 12.1 percent swinging-strike rate isn’t commensurate with the whiff rate you’d expect for someone averaging 13 punchouts per nine innings, and his 26.1 percent opponents’ chase rate on out-of-zone pitches is well below the league average for a reliever. Nonetheless, today’s agreement serves as evidence that the Yankees are convinced of his ability to at least approach his 2018 output as he enters his mid-30s.

In effect, Ottavino will be replacing right-hander David Robertson, who signed with the Phillies on a two-year deal worth a guaranteed $23MM a couple of weeks back. Britton, the team’s other marquee addition, had already finished out the season in manager Aaron Boone’s bullpen following a deadline trade with the Orioles. In that sense, then, one could argue that the bullpen hasn’t definitively improved. Of course, improving on a relief corps that posted the game’s fourth-best ERA (3.38) and the game’s highest strikeout percentage (30.2 percent) is no small feat. At the very least, swapping out Robertson for Ottavino will ensure that the Yankees’ bullpen should maintain its already elite status, even if one or two of the team’s top relievers take a step back in ’19.

The recent additions of Ottavino and DJ LeMahieu, former Rockies teammates now reunited in the Bronx, have added $21MM worth of luxury tax hits to the Yankees’ ledger. That should put them firmly above the $206MM cutoff even if they’re successfully able to find a taker for Sonny Gray and his $7.5MM salary. As Jason Martinez outlines at Roster Resource, the Yankees’ luxury tax payroll currently projects to just north of $224MM, while their actual in-season 2019 payroll — assuming an even $9MM per year breakdown of Ottavino’s deal — currently rests around $209.5MM.

However, the Yankees dipped south of the luxury tax line last season, which reset them back into the lowest penalty bracket. As such, they’ll be faced with a relatively tame penalty — a 12 percent overage tax on every dollar north of the $206MM cutoff point.

The three-year, $27MM value of Ottavino’s contract is likely a bitter pill for the Rockies to swallow, as Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post observes (Twitter link). The Rox handed out a pair of three-year deals worth that exact amount when signing Bryan Shaw and Jake McGee an offseason ago, both of whom struggled through awful seasons in year one of those contracts. That pair of signings, however, combined with the $52MM pact given to Wade Davis, surely restricted the Rockies’ ability to make an earnest effort to re-sign Ottavino this winter.

Generally, though, Ottavino’s contract falls well within range of what was reasonably expected heading into the offseason. We at MLBTR ranked him 21st on our annual ranking of the game’s Top 50 free agents, predicting that he’d secure a three-year, $30MM pact with the Yankees.

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