- With the Mariners on the verge of both the Cano deal and another major trade, the James Paxton deal to the Yankees almost seems like old news at this point, though that trade took place just two weeks ago. Yankees GM Brian Cashman revisited his own blockbuster deal speaking to reporters (including George A. King III of the New York Post) and noted that talks about Paxton began after Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto “said he was willing to talk about everybody but three players,” though “one of them he just moved to the Mets.” It’s safe to assume that Cashman is referring to Edwin Diaz, who is on the verge of joining Cano on the Mets. While Dipoto has been open about dealing higher-priced veterans off the Mariners’ roster, he has said that it would take quite a bit more to obtain controllable assets like Diaz, Mitch Haniger, and Marco Gonzales, so one can infer that Haniger and Gonzales may be the other two players that were reportedly off-limits at the time of Dipoto’s talks with Cashman. Of course, since Diaz has now been shipped to Citi Field, it’s fair to wonder if Haniger and Gonzales could find themselves in different uniforms by Opening Day.
- Cashman also said that recent reports about the Yankees’ interest in J.T. Realmuto were “false, completely false,” and that the team didn’t make an offer to the Marlins about the All-Star catcher. According to Fancred’s Jon Heyman, the Yankees were open to the idea of moving Gary Sanchez to Miami for Realmuto in something close to a one-for-one trade, though the Marlins wanted other significant pieces in addition to Sanchez.
Yankees Rumors
Brian Cashman: Gary Sanchez Is "Not For Sale"
- Like Seager, Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez endured a surprisingly poor season in 2018. However, Sanchez is “not for sale,” general manager Brian Cashman tells Jack Curry of the YES Network (video link). The Yankees expect to be “proven correct” that Sanchez is a franchise catcher, per Cashman, who has consistently defended the 26-year-old in recent months. So, although Sanchez has come up in trade rumors as recently as this week, it appears he’ll stay put.
Andrew Miller On Yankees' "Radar"
- With both Robertson and Zach Britton on the open market, the Yankees have one of their ex-relievers, free-agent left-hander Andrew Miller, on their “radar,” per King. In 2014, the last time Miller was a free agent, he signed a four-year, $36MM deal with the Yankees. That proved to be a shrewd investment for the Yanks, who received brilliant production from Miller before trading him to Cleveland in a 2016 swap in which New York acquired Clint Frazier and Justus Sheffield (the latter was just dealt to Seattle for high-end starter James Paxton). Miller stood out for most of his time with the Indians, including during their run to a World Series berth in 2016, but the 33-year-old is now fresh off an injury-shortened season in which his numbers fell off.
East Notes: Realmuto, Yankees, Sanchez, Markakis, Rays
The market for star Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto seems to be reaching a fever pitch, with the Astros, Yankees, Dodgers, Mets and Giants among the latest teams to “show interest,” says Fancred’s Jon Heyman. The odds of an extension for the backstop seem infinitesimal at this juncture, with sources “suggesting” that the proposed figure was in range of the massive extension signed by Giants catcher Buster Posey prior to the start of the 2013 season. Whether or not the ask was mere posturing on the part of Realmuto, whose agent Jeff Berry seemed to make clear the 27-year-old’s intentions on a radio show in late October, is unknown, but it seems a near certainty the Oklahoma-born product will be moved at some point this offseason.
In other news from around the region . . .
- Per Heyman, the Yankees seem to be willing to include Gary Sanchez in a deal for Realmuto, but only in something approximating a straight-up swap. Sanchez, who has four remaining years of team control to Realmuto’s two, has turned off some admirers with his indifferent play behind the plate and propensity for the long slump, but is nevertheless an extremely valuable asset in today’s desiccated offensive landscape behind the dish. Indeed, Steamer actually projects the 26-year-old Sanchez to be nearly as valuable next season as the elder Realmuto (3.5 WAR, to the latter’s 3.7), pegging him for a 116 wRC+ to Realmuto’s 108. It should be noted, too, that analytical models are far more bullish on Sanchez’s much-maligned defense than the general public: DRS, after all, sees Sanchez as clearly superior to the Marlin star over the last three seasons, while Baseball Prospectus, though higher on Realmuto, mostly agrees, seeing the Dominican-born backstop as generally above-average over the same frame. The Marlins, though, seem to find the package insufficient without other “top pieces” involved, which scenario would almost surely be a non-starter for the Bombers.
- Outfielder Nick Markakis “remains a candidate” to return to Atlanta, and is a “more likely fit” than Michael Brantley, per Heyman. Markakis, a Georgia native, enjoyed a blissful ’18 renaissance in the last year of his 4 year, $44MM deal signed prior the 2015 season, slashing .297/.366/.440 in hitter-friendly SunTrust Park on the way to 2.6 fWAR, his first two-win-plus season with the Braves. Atlanta, of course, continues its search for offensive upgrades even after the inking of Josh Donaldson to a one-year deal, but doesn’t see outfielder A.J. Pollock as a likely target, according to Heyman. The 35-year-old Markakis, though, had posted five consecutive sub-.400 slugging percentage seasons before the last, and has never been a particularly nimble defender in a corner. Atlanta, at this point in the offseason, may be setting its sights a little higher in its dogged pursuit of an outfielder.
- Per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, the Rays are “considering high-end upgrades” across the diamond. Topkin lists Noah Syndergaard, Paul Goldschmidt, and Nelson Cruz, among others, as potential options, and notes that the team’s monetary resources far outshine those of past seasons. The Rays, perhaps more than any other team, are rife with young talent, with logjams up the middle and on the corners, and have considerable prospect capital with which to deal, so multiple major upgrades cannot, at this point in the offseason, be ruled out.
Pitching Market Notes: Eovaldi, Yankees, Happ, Kikuchi, Gray, MadBum
After a busy day of arbitration decisions, it’s worth taking stock of some recent developments in the broader market. We’ve already touched upon some major storylines today, with looks at Patrick Corbin (link), Zack Greinke (link), and Carlos Carrasco (link). Here’s more …
- Though Corbin seems to be captivating the market at present, chatter on Nathan Eovaldi is also “heating up,” per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (Twitter link). Unsurprisingly, the Red Sox and Astros are presently seen as prime contenders to land him. With the American League shaping up to be another clash of titans, those organizations are positioned t stake some dough on Eovaldi’s upside.
- The Yankees are a major player on Corbin, of course, but also some other arms — and not just as a backup plan. Indeed, per Jayson Stark of The Athletic (via Twitter), the club could even add another significant starter if it does get Corbin. That’d be quite a surprise, given that the team would appear to have a clear starting five if Corbin signs, but perhaps there’s a way to pull something off that would still make sense and leave the club with immense rotation depth.
- Meanwhile, southpaw J.A. Happ is said to have “ten teams chasing” him at this point, per Jon Heyman of Fancred. One of those is the Brewers, who’d presumably like to bolster their rotation but also don’t appear to have an immense amount of money to use. Of course, giving up on Jonathan Schoop clears a big piece of payroll, so long as the club finds a way to address its infield needs without using all the savings.
- There’s also a “strong” market for Japanese hurler Yusei Kikuchi, Heyman tweets. Unsurprisingly, west coast clubs — the Dodgers, Padres, Giants, and Mariners, at least — appear to be lining up for the 27-year-old. It’s still hard to know what kind of salary and duration he’ll be able to command. But as this particular list of clubs shows, Kikuchi’s unusual youth will play a major role in his market by opening the door to quite a few organizations to pursue him.
- Elsewhere, the Yankees are still trying to offload an asset in Sonny Gray. Per Ken Davidoff of the New York Post, with GM Brian Cashman saying he has discussed a multitude of different scenarios involving Gray, including some larger deals. That suggests that the Yanks are comfortable hanging onto Gray for a while as they sort through the possibilities, rather than putting him on the market and taking the best deal then available.
- Gray is as good as gone from the team’s perspective, but that’s clearly not the same situation for Giants ace Madison Bumgarner. The burly southpaw is reportedly on the table. But that doesn’t mean he’ll be priced at a level that will lead to a deal. Indeed one organizational source tells Heyman (Twitter link) they “don’t see [Bumgarner] going anywhere this winter.” Certainly, the Giants have little need to dump Bumgarner if they aren’t getting something worthwhile in return. Teams with interest, though, will remain wary of a big price for one season of a player with recent shoulder woes and some performance questions.
Latest On Patrick Corbin’s Market
The teams that have already met with free-agent lefty Patrick Corbin have been given the impression that he’s hoping to be the first major free agent to sign a long-term contract this winter, tweets Jayson Stark of The Athletic. Corbin met with the Phillies, Nationals and Yankees this week, though he’s surely been in contact with other clubs as the consensus top starting pitcher available in free agency. Stark suggests that a Corbin signing “will almost certainly” happen before the Winter Meetings, which are already only nine days away from beginning.
The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal wrote yesterday that early interest in Corbin is robust, with some teams believing he’ll receive offers of six years in length. (MLBTR projected Corbin to sign a six-year, $129MM contract.) Notably, Rosenthal cites one source in suggesting that Nationals GM Mike Rizzo is “seriously focused” on acquiring Corbin, though Washington’s history of baking heavy deferrals into long-term contracts isn’t always well received by free agents.
More anecdotally, Rosenthal tweets that at Corbin’s offseason wedding, his younger brother donned a Yankees hat during his best man speech and joked that he hoped the groom would soon be moving closer to home. (Corbin, a childhood Yankees fan, is from Syracuse.) The New York Post’s Ken Davidoff spoke to Yankees general manger Brian Cashman about the team’s meeting with Corbin, though Cashman unsurprisingly declined to reveal much, simply stating that Corbin “left here knowing a lot more about us than when he arrived.” The GM did, however, imply that the organization won’t necessarily wait for Corbin to make a decision before moving on. Based on Stark’s report, however, it doesn’t sound as if Corbin will be making interest parties wait all that long.
The 29-year-old Corbin is the second-youngest and very arguably the best starting pitcher on the free-agent market. He turned in his second career 200-inning season in 2018, his second straight season with 33 appearances and ranked seventh among qualified starting pitchers in strikeout percentage as well as second in swinging-strike rate.
If there’s a knock on Corbin, it’s that he doesn’t have a lengthy track record of performing at this level — largely because he underwent Tommy John surgery midway through his Diamondbacks tenure, missed one and a half seasons, and struggled in his first full year back. He’s been a quality hurler over the past two seasons, though, and D-backs pitching coach Mike Butcher tells Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer that he believes Corbin can maintain his 2018 transformation for years to come. Butcher and Lauber discuss the changes to Corbin’s arsenal — including the refinement of his slider and altered usage of his curveball — that brought about Corbin’s breakout season in 2018 in an interview that’s well worth a full read-through for fans hoping their preferred club will land the lefty.
Latest On Noah Syndergaard
While other major rumors swirl, the Mets appear to have a line open with other organizations regarding power righty Noah Syndergaard. Chatter on Thor has been percolating for some time now, but there’s increasing indication that the Mets actually prefer to move the franchise cornerstone.
Indeed, the New York org is “motivated” to move on from Syndergaard, according to Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs (Twitter link), with the organization said to be reaching out to rivals to gauge interest. As others have suggested, the Mets would then anticipate turning around and bringing in another starter via free agency.
It remains somewhat unclear precisely why the Mets have determined that trading Syndergaard is the right course, but new GM Brodie Van Wagenen is clearly out to re-shape the roster. That the big righty is a former Van Wagenen client only adds to the intrigue. In any event, there’ll be no shortage of suitors. When healthy, Syndergaard is a monster on the mound and a rather marketable asset to boot.
The rival club most frequently tied to Syndergaard of late is the Padres. As Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets, though, the San Diego outfit is not only unwilling to part with top prospect Fernando Tatis Jr., but won’t part with MacKenzie Gore or Luis Urias, either. It seems that the Friars are more amenable to discussing other prospects, though it’s arguable there are a few others who are or ought to be just as untouchable as that trio.
Otherwise, the Brewers are now a team to watch on Syndergaard, according to Andy Martino of SNY.tv. Their level of interest isn’t clear, but it’s obviously not hard to imagine the Milwaukee org liking the idea of placing Thor atop their rotation. The Reds and Yankees, however, are not involved in the pursuit.
As for the Mets’ apparent plan to add another arm if they move Syndergaard, it’s anyone’s guess how that’ll play out. Certainly, with other moves afoot that’d add salary, this approach would indicate a real willingness to boost the payroll. Just how far, though, remains to be seen. The top-available pitchers would require significant contracts. Other, lesser hurlers are obviously under consideration — Mike Puma of the New York Post cites Gio Gonzalez on Twitter — but assuredly will not bring Syndergaard’s upside and will still out-earn him in 2019 (he’s projected at just $5.9MM).
Nationals, Yankees, Phillies Meet With Patrick Corbin
4:10pm: ESPN’s Buster Olney tweets that Corbin has also met with the Nationals in Washington, D.C. this week. It’s not clear if Corbin has met with any other clubs on what looks to be a tour of some east-coast contenders with interest in the lefty. Like the Phillies and Yankees, the Nats have some obvious needs in the rotation. At present, the Nats have Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Tanner Roark are the top three options on the team’s depth chart, with young hurlers Joe Ross (returning from Tommy John surgery) and Erick Fedde among the options for the final two rotation spots.
Nov. 28, 3:25pm: Following yesterday’s meeting with the Phillies, Corbin is headed to New York to meet with Yankees officials, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). There’s no meeting set between Corbin and the Mets while his camp is in New York, Sherman adds.
A meeting between the Yankees and Corbin was all but a foregone conclusion. The Yanks are known to be eyeing high-end rotation help even after acquiring James Paxton, and Corbin stands out as the best starter on the market. Beyond that, the two sides have been linked for the better part of a year; reports indicated that the Yankees had interest in acquiring Corbin last year and last offseason, and he’s gone on record to indicate that he grew up a Yankee fan. None of that makes Corbin to the Bronx a fait accompli, but it’d certainly be a surprise if the Yanks weren’t firmly in the mix for Corbin until the very end.
Nov. 27: The Phillies, expected to be one of the most active teams in free agency, are meeting with left-hander Patrick Corbin at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia today, tweets Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia. Corbin is “high on [the] Phillies’ wish list,” Salisbury adds, though certainly one in-person visit doesn’t indicate that there’s anything close to fruition between the two sides.
Corbin, 29, is the consensus top starter on the free-agent market after racking up 200 innings of 3.15 ERA ball with 11.1 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 0.68 HR/9 and a 48.5 percent ground-ball rate. No qualified starter in baseball topped Corbin in terms of opponents’ chase rate (38 percent), and only Max Scherzer bested Corbin’s 15.6 percent swinging-strike rate. Fielding-independent metrics actually liked Corbin more than his ERA (2.47 FIP, 2.61 xFIP, 2.91 SIERA).
[Related: Philadelphia Phillies Offseason Outlook | Philadelphia Phillies depth chart]
As MLBTR contributor Rob Huff recently explored, the Phillies have enormous payroll flexibility this offseason — as much as nearly any team in the Majors — which should allow them to pursue multiple top-tier free agents. Majority owner John Middleton recently told USA Today’s Bob Nightengale that he has every expectation of spending aggressively this winter, playfully adding that the Phillies might “even be even a little stupid about it.”
Corbin would improve any pitching staff in baseball, and he’d give the Phillies a dynamic one-two punch atop the rotation in conjunction with emerging ace Aaron Nola. Teamed with Jake Arrieta and some combination of Nick Pivetta, Vince Velasquez, Zach Eflin, Jerad Eickhoff and Enyel De Los Santos, that top three would give the Phillies a formidable and, as importantly, deep stock of arms from which to draw as the team looks to redeem itself in the wake of a catastrophic late-season collapse. Of course, adding an arm of Corbin’s caliber would also make it a bit easier to stomach trading from that reservoir of younger arms in order to address other areas on the roster. And while MLBTR projected Corbin to top $20MM annually over a six-year term, the Phillies’ wide-open payroll slate would still leave them ample room to add him and one of the top two free agents on the market; the Phils have been prominently linked to both Bryce Harper and Manny Machado in the early stages of free agency.
Cubs Acquire Ronald Torreyes
The Cubs have acquired recently designated infielder Ronald Torreyes in a swap with the Yankees, per an announcement. Cash or a player to be named later will head to New York in return.
Torreyes, 26, makes his way back to an organization that once had him as a minor-leaguer. (He originally came over in this swap and departed in this one, with numerous trades and claims coming thereafter.) If he can hang onto his 40-man spot, or otherwise remains with the Cubs at the start of camp next spring, he’ll presumably compete for a bench job.
With the move, the Cubs have added a player who’s capable of handling just about any defensive position but hasn’t hit much in the big leagues. In 614 career plate appearances, he’s slashing just .281/.310/.375 with four home runs and four steals.
These sorts of moves on the margins of the 40-man roster don’t always mean much, but it’s reasonably notable to see the Cubs snag a shortstop-capable reserve. After all, the organization is facing at least a partial deadline to make a decision on Addison Russell in the coming days. As the non-tender deadline looms, it’s still not clear what course the club will take.
Market Chatter: Indians, Moose, Cano, Diaz, Thor, Pads
The Indians’ rotation has come up in trade rumors over the past month, as Cleveland looks to manage a roster with multiple holes and a crowded payroll that is already at franchise-record levels. However, while Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco have been speculative candidates to be moved, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that teams who’ve spoken to the Indians get the sense that Cleveland is more amenable to trading right-hander Trevor Bauer. Kluber is controlled through 2021, while Carrasco is locked into a club-friendly deal through the 2020 season. Bauer, though, is arbitration-eligible for another two seasons. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him to earn $11.6MM in 2019 — a projection he explored at greater length earlier today. If the Indians are to move a starter, there’s some sense behind making it the one of their “big three” who has the shortest amount of team control and least cost certainty, though there’s still no indication that the team is aggressively shopping any of its starters. The ask on Bauer would figure to be huge — likely including pre-arbitration, MLB-ready help — given Bauer’s 2.21 ERA, 11.3 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 0.46 HR/9 and 44.5 percent grounder rate in 175 1/3 innings in 2018.
Some more notes on the trade and free-agent markets…
- Mike Moustakas is “on the radar” for the Cardinals as they look for a corner infield bat, tweets Fancred’s Jon Heyman. While Cards didn’t show much in the way of interest last winter, the absence of draft-pick compensation being attached to Moustakas is an important distinction that has them at least exploring the possibility this time around. Meanwhile, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that the Cards “made a competitive bid” for Josh Donaldson before the 32-year-old signed a one-year, $23MM contract with the Braves. There were similar reports about the Cardinals’ efforts to sign Jason Heyward and David Price, and the Cardinals also came up shy in their pursuit of Giancarlo Stanton last year when the slugger wouldn’t waive his no-trade protection to approve a deal to St. Louis. Of course, Moustakas is not likely to generate the level of market interest that those players did.
- There has been quite a lot of chatter regarding Mariners infielder Robinson Cano since it emerged recently that the club would like to find a way to dump his contract, though it’s far from evident whether there’s a particularly realistic match to be found. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand says that some feel the M’s will find a taker, though he later added that Cano hasn’t yet been approached by the team about waiving his no-trade rights or about giving a list of destinations as to which he’d be amenable. (Twitter links.) One key factor in the Cano situation is the notion of the Mariners dealing star closer Edwin Diaz as a means of offloading the money owed Cano. There is indeed some willingness to do so on the part of the Seattle organization, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post. But it seems clubs with interest in Diaz aren’t necessarily amenable to taking on enough of the $120MM still owed to Cano to make it work. Sherman lists the Mets, Yankees, Braves, Phillies, and Red Sox as teams angling for Diaz, not all of which have any inclination to pick up Cano. That’s not surprising, as it’s an awfully steep dollar amount, even though the long-time star second baseman does still have value himself on the ballfield. That said, Diaz arguably could command something approaching that whopping sum in a hypothetical open-market scenario. After all, he stands out against any other potentially available relievers this winter for his excellence, age, and control. That makes this general structure at least somewhat plausible, though it’ll surely be quite complicated to pull something off.
- It seems the Mets have quite a few balls in the air at the moment as new GM Brodie Van Wagenen searches for a significant deal that will help jumpstart the franchise. Jon Heyman of Fancred (Twitter link) and Mike Puma of the New York Post (via Twitter) each doused the flames of speculation involving the Mets as a possible match in a Cano swap. But that doesn’t mean the team didn’t explore the subject with the Mariners. SNY.tv’s Andy Martino suggested some possible scenarios involving Cano, though really the basic framework does not seem workable from the Seattle side. Martino says the clubs have batted around a concept in which Seattle would both pay about $50MM of Cano’s salary and take on more in return, such as through Jay Bruce’s $26MM contract, while sending Diaz or Mitch Haniger to New York. Trouble is, the implication there is that the Mets could buy one of those excellent young players for less than $50MM, which doesn’t seem like sufficient salary relief for the Mariners to justify the loss of such core talent.
- Meanwhile, the biggest name seemingly in play on the Mets’ side is Noah Syndergaard, the uber-talented but health-questionable young righty. The Padres have made clear they won’t part with top prospect Fernando Tatis Jr., per Martino, which dovetails with expectations. While the report indicates that the teams have also discussed San Diego backstop Austin Hedges, he certainly does not profile as a centerpiece in a deal for Syndergaard. Meanwhile, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription links) suggests the Rockies could be an under-the-radar suitor for Syndergaard, who’d turn their rotation into a potentially outstanding unit. Though the offense is surely the priority in Colorado, that can be addressed through relatively low-cost investments; adding Thor, meanwhile, is surely an intriguing thought.
