Carlos Beltran May Retire After 2016 Season
Carlos Beltran may retire after the 2016 season, reports Zach Braziller of the New York Post. Beltran is entering his age 39 season and the final campaign of a three-year, $45MM deal signed prior to 2014. Beltran allowed that his decision will be affected by the level of performance he believes he can contribute in 2017. “If I feel like I produce well to the point where I can make a good impact on a team, then I can play one more year. Or if I feel like I have [had] enough, I’ll go home.”
After a rough 2014 campaign, the Yankees outfielder bounced back in 2015 with a .276/.337/.471 line and slightly below average defense in 531 plate appearances. Injuries have slowed Beltran in his time with New York too. While the original plan probably included using him at designated hitter with regularity, the returns of Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira last season forced Beltran into the outfield. The club will have to juggle a similar alignment this year.
If it is indeed the last season for Beltran, he’ll go out with an impressive 19-year resume. Over parts of 18 seasons, the switch-hitter has posted a career .280/.355/.490 line with 392 home runs, 311 stolen bases, and 2,454 hits in 9,929 plate appearances. He’s poised to reach 400 home runs, 2,500 hits, and 10,000 plate appearances this year. Defensive metrics also rated him as an excellent defender during his prime. With 66 career WAR, he has a legitimate case for Hall of Fame honors.
Bolstering his candidacy is a strong postseason track record. In 223 plate appearances, Beltran hit .332/.441/.674 with 16 home runs and 40 RBI. Win Probability Added (WPA), an advanced stat that measures the value of each play relative to the state of the game*, credits Beltran with about three wins in what amounts to about a third of a season. In other words, he hit like the 2015 version of Bryce Harper when the games counted the most.
Beltran has spent most of his career split between the Royals, Mets, Cardinal, and Yankees. He spent half the 2004 season with the playoff bound Astros – a year that included his best postseason performance. His .435/.536/1.022 October slash set up a seven-year, $119MM contract with the Mets. At the time, it was just the 10th deal to cross the $100MM threshold. Notably, the Giants traded Zack Wheeler for Beltran at the 2011 trade deadline.
*By comparison, WAR measures the value of each play without regard to game context. According to WAR, a walkoff grand slam down three runs in the bottom of the ninth is equally valuable as a grand slam in a 20-1 blowout. Using WPA, the walkoff grand slam is hugely valuable whereas the blowout grand slam is worth almost nothing.
Dodgers Moving On From Aroldis Chapman
The Dodgers have moved on from left-hander Aroldis Chapman and are now weighing a run at Yankees lefty Andrew Miller, as well as other options, in their quest to bolster the back-end of their bullpen, reports Jon Heyman of CBS Sports (Twitter link). Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported yesterday that the Dodgers and Astros were talking about Miller with the Yankees, although one would assume that Houston’s reported acquisition of Ken Giles from Philadelphia takes them out of that market.
The Dodgers were said on Monday to have reached a deal to acquire Chapman from the Reds, but later in the day it was reported that the trade had not yet been completed. Eventually, it was reported that Chapman had allegedly been involved in a highly troublesome domestic dispute back in October. While no arrests were issued at the time of the incident, the league is indeed investigating the matter and, under its new domestic violence policy, could take action of some kind against Chapman.
Relief Notes: Rodney, Sipp, Astros, Twins, Soriano
Here are a few notes on teams’ searches for bullpen help.
- The Padres are trying to lure Fernando Rodney with an incentive-based deal, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reports (on Twitter). The Cubs and other teams are also possibilities for Rodney. The 38-year-old former closer posted a 4.74 ERA, 8.3 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9 overall in a tough season in 2015, although he fared well after a late-August trade from Seattle to Chicago.
- GM Jerry Dipoto says the Mariners are likely to add at least one big-league free agent reliever, Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune tweets.
- The Astros have already landed Ken Giles, but they aren’t done making moves to improve their bullpen, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets. Lefty free agent Tony Sipp, who posted a 1.99 ERA, 10.3 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 in a terrific season for Houston in 2015, remains on the Astros’ radar.
- The Twins are looking for a lefty reliever, but are unlikely to pursue Sipp or Antonio Bastardo, LaVelle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune tweets. That means they could turn to the trade market. Twins exec Terry Ryan says he would prefer to acquire a lefty capable of working multiple innings and is not interested in a LOOGY, Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press notes (on Twitter).
- The Yankees are among the teams that have been in touch with Rafael Soriano‘s representation, Heyman tweets. The 35-year-old Soriano missed most of the 2015 season, not signing until June and then dealing with shoulder troubles, and the Cubs released him in early September. Prior to that, however, he had two relatively successful seasons as the Nationals’ closer and was terrific in ninth-inning work for the Yankees in 2012.
Tigers Acquire Justin Wilson
The Tigers and Yankees have announced a trade that will send left-handed setup man Justin Wilson to Detroit in exchange for right-handed pitching prospects Luis Cessa and Chad Green.
In Wilson, the Tigers will receive the lefty setup man they’ve been seeking and do so at what should be an affordable rate. Wilson is controllable for three seasons via the arbitration process and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $1.3MM next season.
The Yankees acquired Wilson, now 28, from the Pirates last winter in the trade that sent catcher Francisco Cervelli to the Pirates. His first season in New York was largely successful, as he worked to a 3.10 ERA with 9.7 K/9, 3.0 BB/9 and a 43.8 percent ground-ball rate. Wilson was similarly effective against both right- and left-handed batters (.593 OPS and .621 OPS, respectively). It’s a bit odd to see Wilson struggle more against lefties than righties, but he had some control issues when facing same-handed hitters in 2015 (though he hasn’t previously struggled in that regard versus left-handers).
Wilson will join newly acquired closer Francisco Rodriguez and newly signed setup man mark Lowe in the back of a remade Tigers bullpen. He should be the top left-handed setup man for manager Brad Ausmus, while internal candidates like Kyle Ryan, Blaine Hardy and Kyle Lobstein represent options to add a second lefty into the mix.
For the Yankees, the trade means that lefties Chasen Shreve and Jacob Lindgren will be relied upon as the primary lefties in manager Joe Girardi’s bullpen (barring an outside acquisition, of course). New York will pick up the Tigers’ No. 6 and No. 19 prospects, respectively, in Cessa and Green, according to MLB.com’s end-of-season rankings.
If Cessa’s name sounds familiar, it’s because this is the second trade in which he’s been involved in the past six months, although the first was considerably more high profile. Cessa went to Detroit alongside fellow righty Michael Fulmer in July’s Yoenis Cespedes swap with the Mets. The 23-year-old Cessa struggled greatly in his first exposure to Triple-A this season, recording a 6.97 ERA in 64 innings of work. However, he also thrived at the Double-A level, where he logged a 2.91 ERA with a 61-to-17 K/BB ratio in 77 1/3 innings prior to his Triple-A promotion. MLB.com notes that Cessa has a fastball in the 93-95 mph range as well as a slurvy-but-improving breaking pitch and the “makings of a Major League changeup.” He profiles as a back-of-the-rotation starter.
Green, 24, sits 90 to 94 with his own heater, which has heavy sink and which he commands well. However, MLB.com notes that he lacks plus secondary offerings, so he’s a bit of a project. Green spent the entirety of the 2015 season pitching in the rotation for Detroit’s Double-A affiliate, where he recorded a 3.93 ERA with 8.3 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9. Both players picked up in the deal would seem to be on track to pitch in Triple-A early next year, meaning it wouldn’t be a surprise if either arm surfaced in the Majors at some point in 2016.
Jennifer Hammond of FOX Sports Detroit first reported the trade was in place (Twitter link) and added the specifics (link) on the return shortly thereafter.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Bullpen Notes: Wilson, Melancon, Twins, Bastardo, Blanton
The Tigers are interested in Yankees left-hander Justin Wilson and have, in fact, had trade talks with the Yankees about their lefty setup man, reports Marly Rivera of ESPN (via Twitter). It’s not clear how far talks between the two sides progressed, but the Tigers have a known need for a left-handed reliever, and the Yankees have been open-minded about dealing almost any player on their roster. Wilson, who has three years of club control remaining, is in his prime at 28 years of age and has a lifetime 3.03 ERA with 8.7 K/9 against 3.7 BB/9 in 199 1/3 innings between the Pirates and Yankees.
A few more notes on the relief market…
- The Nationals had dialogue with the Pirates about closer Mark Melancon, though nothing is serious at this time, Bill Ladson of MLB.com tweets. Before Washington could even acquire Melancon, they’ll probably have to move at least one of Jonathan Papelbon or Drew Storen to free up some room.
- Twins GM Terry Ryan says the team is unlikely to bring back relievers Brian Duensing and Blaine Boyer, as Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com writes. Minnesota is eyeing left-handed relief help in Nashville and is interested in both Tony Sipp and Antonio Bastardo, per Bollinger. The Twins also checked in on veteran Matt Thornton, but their preference is a more strikeout-oriented arm, says Bollinger, so Thornton may not be a fit.
- Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press hears that teams have reached out to the Twins about All-Star closer Glen Pekrins in their search for left-handed relief, but talks didn’t get far (links to Twitter). Perkins is owed a reasonable $12.8MM over the next two seasons and has a $6.5MM club option for the 2018 campaign. That option becomes a player option if he’s traded.
- The Cubs meeting with the agents for Bastardo, according to Robert Murray of Baseball Essential (on Twitter). The Cubs have been very active over the past 24 hours and are known to be seeking bullpen upgrades.
- Shawn Kelley’s agent, Mike McCann, told Joel Sherman of the New York Post (on Twitter) that his client has yet to pick a team. The Nationals are among “multiple clubs” in “active discussions” with McCann.
- Right-hander Joe Blanton is drawing interest from a wide number of teams after a strong 2015 showing in the bullpen, tweets Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith. Blanton could be a candidate for a multi-year deal after his excellent bounceback campaign.
- Multiple reporters, including J.P. Hoornstra of the L.A. News Group, have tweeted that Todd Coffey is in Nashville hoping to latch on with a club as he eyes an MLB comeback. Coffey, 35, hasn’t pitched in the bigs since 2012 but was excellent at Triple-A as recently as 2014.
Astros Fielding Interest In Numerous Key Players, Including George Springer
The Astros are fielding interest in several of their most enticing players, according to a report from Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle.
That includes top young outfielder George Springer, who Drellich says the club is “open to moving … if the haul is big enough.” Per MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart (via Twitter), though, Houston has not discussed Springer in any trades.
Houston has heard from teams looking at righties Vince Velasquez and Lance McCullers Jr., too, though the team is more willing to consider dealing the former. And the Cubs are among the clubs that have interest in Carlos Gomez, though Drellich says there’s a hesitancy to part with him.
In terms of possible targets, the Chronicle report notes that the ‘Stros have discussed Carlos Carrasco with the Indians, as Zack Meisel of the Plain Dealer previously tweeted. He’d obviously require a significant return to acquire. And Houston is also talking with the Yankees about closer Andrew Miller.
All in all, it seems there are numerous possibilities in play for the Astros, with the report citing a focus on pitching. It would remain extremely surprising if a player like Springer is traded, but the fact that the team is willing to consider the possibility illustrates the potential for major asset shifting. It goes without saying, of course, that he’d only be parted with in a deal for a truly significant player.
Astros, Dodgers Discussing Andrew Miller With Yankees
The Astros and Dodgers are showing interest in Yankees lefty Andrew Miller, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports on Twitter. Those clubs have long seemed like possible fits, but the involvement of the latter is particularly notable given that the Dodgers had been lined up to acquire Aroldis Chapman from the Reds before his disturbing domestic violence allegations emerged.
Both Houston and L.A. were heavily involved in pursuing Miller last winter, with the Astros said to have made him the largest offer. But Miller chose New York, in part for family reasons, and signed a four-year, $36MM pact that includes equal, $9MM annual salaries.
Just one year into that contract, the remaining commitment looks quite appealing. Miller put up another outstanding season, throwing 61 2/3 frames of 2.04 ERA ball and racking up 14.6 K/9 against 2.9 BB/9. Those numbers are nearly exact matches for his breakout 2014 campaign, and there’s little question that he’d command an even larger commitment were he back on the open market this winter.
East Notes: Bethancourt, Orioles, Yankees
After having agreed to terms with catcher Tyler Flowers, the Braves seem likely to trade Christian Bethancourt, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal Constitution tweets. With Flowers likely to share the Braves’ catching duties with A.J. Pierzynski, Bethancourt now appears to be on the outside looking in. The 24-year-old hit just .200/.225/.290 in 160 big-league plate appearances in 2015 (although he did fare much better at Triple-A, batting .327/.359/.480) and struggled with passed balls. He’s still young and spent several years regarded as a top prospect, so one would think he would be an interesting option for a rebuilding club. Of course, the Braves themselves are rebuilding, and the Flowers signing suggests quite strongly that they’re skeptical, at the very least, of Bethancourt’s long-term prospects. Here are more notes from the East Coast.
- The Orioles have turned to the trade market to find a starting pitcher to replace Wei-Yin Chen, MLB.com’s Britt Ghiroli writes (Twitter links). They have “a few” standing offers out to teams in return for starting pitching. With Chen gone, the Orioles’ top four currently includes Chris Tillman, Miguel Gonzalez, Ubaldo Jimenez and Kevin Gausman, all of them righties. Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun reported this week that the team would prefer to add a lefty, although one option could be using lefty reliever Brian Matusz as a starter. “We’d be OK with five righties, but ideally we’d like to get some balance to our lineup and our rotation,” Orioles exec Dan Duquette said.
- Other teams have asked about Orioles minor leaguers Jomar Reyes, Chance Sisco and Tanner Scott in trade talks, MASNsports.com’s Steve Melewski tweets. Reyes, an 18-year-old third baseman, ranks fourth on MLB.com’s list of the top Orioles prospects, with the writeup noting his terrific raw power; Sisco, a catcher, ranks eighth, and Scott, a lefty, ranks 21st.
- The Yankees‘ current plan is to trade Brett Gardner or Andrew Miller for a starting pitcher, or to keep them both for next season, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets. Yankees exec Brian Cashman said last weekend that the most likely outcome is that the team will keep both players.
Reactions To The Zobrist Deal & Castro Trade
Here’s a roundup of reactions to Ben Zobrist‘s reported four-year, $56MM pact with the Cubs and their trade of infielder Starlin Castro to the Yankees for Adam Warren and Brendan Ryan.
- The Cubs are hoping Zobrist’s decreased production last year was due primarily to his knee injury and that he can approach the levels of performance he had previously established, ESPN’s Jonah Keri writes. WAR rated Zobrist as one of baseball’s best players from 2009 through 2014 and, as Keri notes, Zobrist’s versatility added value that WAR doesn’t reflect.
- Zobrist’s deal should help move the markets for hitters like Yoenis Cespedes, Justin Upton and Alex Gordon, August Fagerstrom of FanGraphs writes. Fagerstrom also notes that the structure of Zobrist’s contract (which only pays him $10MM next season) and the salary-shedding trade of Castro to the Yankees strongly suggest that the Cubs can continue to make moves, particularly given that they were willing to bid heavily on David Price.
- The Zobrist contract and the Castro deal improve the Cubs, but perhaps not enough to justify the expense, ESPN’s Keith Law writes (Insider-only). Exchanging Castro for Zobrist and Adam Warren should improve the Cubs by “a couple wins” next season, but the end of Zobrist’s contract could be ugly, given that advanced fielding numbers suggest his defense has already declined.
- Zobrist is a great match for the Cubs, FOX Sports’ Jon Morosi writes. Since Zobrist rarely strikes out, he fits well with the strikeout-heavy Cubs offense, and since he can play multiple positions, he’ll help the Cubs find the best spots to use young players like Kyle Schwarber and Javier Baez. Meanwhile, they can effectively pay three quarters of Zobrist’s contract with money they previously owed Castro.
Yankees To Acquire Starlin Castro For Adam Warren, Brendan Ryan
The Yankees and Cubs have agreed to a trade that will send Starlin Castro to New York, pending medical reviews. The deal will also see right-hander Adam Warren and Brendan Ryan (listed as a player to be named later) heading to the Cubs.
Castro, 26 in March, is a three-time All-Star that struggled mightily for much of the 2015 campaign but had a strong finish to the season and an even better showing in the playoffs. Overall, Castro batted .265/.296/.375 last season, marking the second time in the past three seasons in which he’s delivered a well-below average output on offense. However, the 2014 campaign was excellent, as Castro batted .292/.339/.438 with 14 home runs. The Yankees will be counting on Castro to look more like his 2014 and the late-2015 versions of himself over the course of the next four seasons that remain on his contract.
A total of $38MM remains on the seven-year, $60MM contract extension Castro signed three years ago. With the Yankees, he will, presumably, step in as the everyday second baseman for the foreseeable future. His addition calls into question what the Yanks will do with incumbent second basemen Dustin Ackley and Rob Refsnyder, who had previously been slated to platoon in 2016. While one could remain on the roster as a utility option, it’s tough to envision the club keeping both players and Castro on the active roster next year.
Warren, 28, will give the Cubs a right-hander that was one of the more valuable swingmen in the game last season. The former fourth-round pick appeared in 43 games for the Yankees, making 17 starts and 26 relief appearances en route to a career-high 131 1/3 innings. In that time, Warren posted a 3.29 ERA with 7.1 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and a 45.2 percent ground-ball rate. Those numbers are more or less commensurate with the production he delivered from 2013-14 while working almost exclusively out of the bullpen (101 relief appearances, two starts) and can be a reasonable expectation for him going forward. (If anything, one could perhaps forecast slightly better results due to the move to the National League.) He can be controlled for another three years in arbitration.
Ryan, 34 in March, exercised his $1MM player option this offseason. Ryan has not been terribly productive since coming to New York, taking just 289 plate appearances and compiling a poor .201/.244/.271 batting line over his three years with the team. Still, he is valued most for his glove and he can contribute at second base and in other infield roles.
Joel Sherman of the New York Post (on Twitter) and ESPN’s Buster Olney (on Twitter) first reported that Castro was New York-bound. YES Network’s Jack Curry (Twitter link) reported that Adam Warren and a PTBNL were going to the Cubs. Jon Heyman of CBS Sports tweeted that the PTBNL was Brendan Ryan. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.