Mets Place Christian Scott On Injured List With UCL Sprain
July 24: The Mets’ plan for Scott is to rest and rehab for the time being, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The hope is that he can return before season’s end. Given the timing of the injury, it’s sensible enough to try for the rest/rehab route even if surgery has been considered as an option. Surgery might knock Scott out until the end of the 2025 campaign anyhow, so the Mets will go with a non-surgical treatment in hopes that he can return late in the year and then have the offseason for further rest.
July 23: The Mets announced that right-hander Christian Scott has been placed on the 15-day injured list with a right UCL sprain, retroactive to July 22. Left-hander Alex Young was recalled in a corresponding move.
At this point, it’s unclear how severe Scott’s sprain is or how long the Mets expect him to be out, but it’s a concerning development nonetheless. The ulnar collateral ligament is the one replaced in Tommy John surgery and a sprain, by definition, involves some degree of stretching or tearing.
That’s not to say that Scott is definitely going under the knife, as pitchers are sometimes able to return from a UCL sprain via non-surgical means. For a recent and perhaps best-case example, Mason Miller of the Athletics was diagnosed with a mild UCL sprain in May of last year. He missed a few months of the season but was back with the club by September and has been one of the best relievers in baseball here in 2024.
But avoiding the scalpel can also be a temporary measure, as seen in the case of Kyle Bradish of the Orioles. He was diagnosed with a UCL sprain in Spring Training this year but was reinstated from the IL by early May. But after eight starts with the O’s, he was back on the IL and then required Tommy John surgery.
Further updates will reveal more about Scott’s absence but, as mentioned, it’s not good news either way. The young pitcher’s stock has been skyrocketing over the past two years, as he posted a 2.57 ERA in the minors last year. Across 87 2/3 innings at three different levels, he struck out 31.9% of batters and walked just 3.6%.
He’s continued pitching well in the minors this year and has also made his major league debut. His first nine starts at the big league level haven’t been outstanding, as he has a 4.56 ERA and a 19.8% strikeout rate, but that’s a fairly small sample size and he’s obviously still just getting his feet wet in the majors.
The Mets were undoubtedly hoping that he would continue his development, putting up better numbers as he went along, but that will be on pause for an undetermined amount of time. Even losing him for just a few months will take him out of the club’s rotation plans for the stretch run. The Mets are currently 51-48 and clinging to the final Wild Card spot in the National League. As they look to keep that spot, they will do so without Scott in their rotation mix for now.
Kodai Senga is expected to come off the IL this week, joining the rotation alongside Sean Manaea, Jose Quintana, Luis Severino and David Peterson. The club also has Tylor Megill on optional assignment and José Buttó and Adrian Houser currently in the big league bullpen. It was reported a few weeks ago that the club had enough healthy rotation options that they were considering trading someone from that group while still trying to compete this year. Reporting from this week threw some cold water on that and this news about Scott perhaps makes that even less likely, though the club at least has a number of solid rotation options to press forward even if their trade options have been diminished.
On top of the immediate impact of subtracting from the club’s rotation depth, it’s less than ideal for a developing starter to be missing significant time. That’s true even if it’s just a few months but it would obviously be even more true if Scott ends up requiring surgery and perhaps missing all of 2025.
J.P. Crawford, Julio Rodriguez Facing Notable Absences
The Mariners’ offense is already reeling, and they’ll now be without two prominent hitters for significant stretches in the season’s second half. General manager Justin Hollander tells the Mariners beat that shortstop J.P. Crawford, who was placed on the 10-day IL yesterday with a fracture in his hand, will miss at least four to six weeks (X link via Adam Jude of the Seattle Times). A timetable for Julio Rodriguez, who landed on the IL at the same time due to a right high ankle sprain, will be reevaluated seven to ten days from now. That doesn’t shed much light on an exact return date for Rodriguez, but it seems clear he’ll miss more than the 10-day minimum with his injury.
Neither Crawford nor Rodriguez has performed up to their personal standards in 2024 — a large reason that Seattle’s lineup has been among the least-productive in the sport. Crawford is playing excellent defense at shortstop but is hitting just .204/.299/.347 on the season. For a player who batted .262/.352/.384 over the three prior seasons — including a career-best .266/.380/.438 just last season — it’s a major downturn in performance.
As for Rodriguez, he’s been about average at the plate this season (.263/.315/.372), but that’s still a precipitous fall for a hitter who burst into the majors with a .279/.338/.495 batting line and 60 homers through his first 287 games. Rodriguez swatted 32 big flies just last season but only has 11 on the year in 2024. His isolated power (slugging minus batting average) sat at .216 in 2022-23 but has plummeted to .109 this year. The timing of his injury is particularly difficult, as Rodriguez looked to finally be getting hot at the plate this month. In his past 48 turns at the dish, he’d delivered a scintillating .409/.469/.750 slash with four homers and three doubles.
With Crawford shelved, the Mariners will likely turn to Dylan Moore and Leo Rivas as their top options at shortstop. Moore’s .230/.307/.425 output against lefties is a solid enough mark, though virtually any defensive metric will agree that he’s stretched too thin playing shortstop on a regular basis. Rivas could take up the larger side of a platoon, in theory. He’s only had six big league plate appearances to this point in his career, but the switch-hitter is batting .288/.440/.397 in 195 plate appearances as a left-handed hitter this season.
In the outfield, Rodriguez’s loss stings even more. The Mariners can go with an alignment of Luke Raley, Victor Robles and Mitch Haniger on most days, with Cade Marlowe and Jonatan Clase as options on the bench. No one from that group can replicate the production of a healthy Rodriguez. For now, the team will hope for good news at his reevaluation, but it’s hard to imagine this pair of injuries won’t impact the Mariners’ outlook at the trade deadline.
Seattle was already known to be seeking a significant upgrade for a lineup that currently ranks 28th in the majors both in runs scored (389) and on-base percentage (.298). The Mariners are actually tied with the Guardians for the 12th-most homers in MLB, but their bottom-of-the-barrel OBP has led to a disproportionate number of solo shots. Seattle has an elite rotation and the makings of an excellent bullpen now that Gregory Santos has rejoined the mix, but the lack of bats is a glaring issue that was already expected to dictate their deadline trajectory. Now, with Crawford and Rodriguez out for a significant period, it seems all the more likely that the Mariners will strive to bolster the lineup in a meaningful way.
Nationals’ Josiah Gray Undergoes Tommy John Surgery
July 24: Gray underwent a Tommy John procedure and internal brace, tweets Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com. He’ll miss at least the bulk of next season.
July 19: Nationals right-hander Josiah Gray has been diagnosed with a partial tear of the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow and will undergo season-ending surgery next week, tweets Bobby Blanco of MASNsports.com. Gray tells reporters that it hasn’t yet been determined whether he’ll undergo a traditional Tommy John surgery, an internal brace procedure or a hybrid of both (X link via Andrew Golden of the Washington Post). That determination won’t be made until the surgery is being performed, but he’ll be sidelined well into next season regardless.
Gray, 26, came to the Nats alongside catcher Keibert Ruiz in the blockbuster 2021 deadline trade sending Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to the Dodgers. He stepped into the Nats’ rotation that same summer and has been a fixture on the staff since, although he’s only been healthy enough to make two starts in 2024. Gray was rocked for 13 runs in just 8 1/3 innings across those two outings before heading to the injured list with a flexor strain.
Just a few weeks ago, things looked to be trending up for Gray. He went out on a minor league rehab assignment on June 9 and, after a shaky first outing, allowed four runs in 15 innings across his next three starts. He tossed six innings in a Triple-A appearance on June 25 and allowed just one run on four hits and no walks with four punchouts. At the time, it seemed that with one more rehab outing, Gray would get the go-ahead to rejoin the Nationals’ rotation.
His next start, however, yielded disastrous results. He was torched for seven runs in just three innings and exited the game with an injury — this time feeling discomfort in his right elbow. Further testing was performed, and Gray unfortunately received the worst-case scenario for any pitcher when he undergoes testing on his elbow.
A former second-round pick, Gray was long touted as a top prospect before his big league debut — not necessarily because of an ace-caliber ceiling but because he was considered a very likely third or fourth starter. In 2023, he looked to have emerged as just that with the Nats, tossing 159 innings with a 3.91 ERA. Gray’s 20.5% strikeout rate and particularly his 11.5% walk rate were worse than the league average, but he substantially cut back on his prior home run troubles last season. Even with sub-par strikeout and walk rates, Gray looked the part of an innings-eating back-end starter, and given that he was just entering his age-26 season, the possibility for another step forward remained.
Now, he’ll be sidelined well into his age-27 campaign — potentially missing the majority of next season, depending on the extent of the surgery he requires. A Tommy John or Tommy John/internal brace hybrid could come with a recovery timetable of up to 14 months. If his recovery is indeed on the lengthy end of the spectrum, it’s possible this injury will knock him out until Opening Day 2026.
Gray entered the 2024 season with 2.075 years of service. He’s been collecting big league service time on the injured list and will continue to do so for the remainder of the year. He’ll finish at 3.075 years and qualify for arbitration for the first time. He’s entrenched in the team’s plans and has three seasons of control remaining beyond the current year, so there’s no chance he’ll be considered a non-tender candidate, even if it’s possible he misses all of next year.
Subtracting Gray from the rotation outlook is a significant punch to the Nationals’ outlook over the next year-plus. With Patrick Corbin coming off the books and top prospect Cade Cavalli soon to return from his own Tommy John procedure, the Nats could look ahead to a 2025 rotation of Gray, Cavalli, MacKenzie Gore, breakout righty Jake Irvin and impressive rookie Mitchell Parker — to say nothing of any potential offseason additions to the pitching staff.
With Gray now on the shelf, that’ll only add further motivation for longtime baseball ops leader Mike Rizzo to add some rotation help in the winter (or perhaps to nab a near-MLB-ready arm at this month’s July 30 trade deadline). The Nationals aren’t quite done with their rebuilding effort — they traded Hunter Harvey last week and could well trade Kyle Finnegan, Jesse Winker and others before the deadline — but are in the final stages. James Wood, the sport’s No. 1 prospect per Baseball America, made his debut earlier this month. Gore, CJ Abrams and Luis Garcia Jr. have cemented themselves as core players this season. Last year’s No. 2 overall pick, Dylan Crews, should make his big league debut before long. Things are trending up, but the injury to Gray is a setback of some note that figures to factor into the organization’s offseason outlook.
Christian Yelich Could Require Back Surgery
12:02pm: Yelich is meeting with a spine specialist tomorrow, and season-ending back surgery is a possibility, tweets Adam McCalvy of MLB.com.
“Everybody plays through stuff, but sometimes you just can’t,” Yelich tells McCalvy. “That’s kind of where we’re at, at this point. Your body won’t cooperate with you.”
10:35am: The Brewers announced this morning that they’ve placed Christian Yelich on the 10-day injured list due to lower back inflammation. Catcher Gary Sanchez was activated from the IL to take Yelich’s spot on the roster.
Yelich exited yesterday’s win over the Cubs with tightness in his back, and he’s taken a more ominous tone this morning when discussing the injury with the Brewers beat. He’s headed to see a specialist, per Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (X link), and Yelich’s description of what comes next foreshadowed a potentially notable absence.
“Go from there as far as what’s going to be best for the near future and into the future,” Yelich said of his visit to a back specialist. “A couple different discussions I think that need to be had.”
Yelich, 32, saw his production tail off in 2020-21, but the former MVP has been on the upswing since. His numbers have improved in three straight seasons, culminating in a vintage .315/.406/.504 batting line through his first 315 plate appearances of the 2024 season. That’s 56% better than league-average, by measure of wRC+, which stands as the third-highest mark in Yelich’s excellent career. His reemergence as one of the National League’s best and most well-rounded offensive players has played a huge role in Milwaukee’s five-game lead in the division, but Yelich’s comments this morning are far from optimistic.
The Brewers are deeper in outfielders than most clubs, so there are plenty of internal options to step into his spot, though clearly no one can be expected to replicate Yelich’s standout offense this season. Still, Milwaukee has Jackson Chourio, Sal Frelick, Garrett Mitchell and Blake Perkins all on the big league roster at the moment. Former top prospect Joey Wiemer has a 16.6% walk rate and .376 OBP down in Triple-A (though his typical power output has curiously been M.I.A.). Milwaukee also just added the appropriately named Brewer Hicklen to its 40-man roster last week; the 28-year-old has hit .274/.383/.569 with 19 homers and 27 steals in Triple-A Nashville after signing a minor league deal in the offseason.
It’s not yet clear how much time Yelich can be expected to miss, but with the trade deadline just six days away, it’s easy enough to see this injury having some broad-reaching impact on the Brewers’ deadline outlook. Yelich’s absence could make the Brewers more wary of dealing from that stash of controllable young outfielders. It’s also feasible that a long-term absence could push the Brewers to look into adding a bat, regardless of position. Yelich has been the team’s best hitter and has also appeared in 26 games as a designated hitter. That could open up some at-bats for any new hitter to step into the lineup.
Starting pitching figures to remain the Brewers’ focus, even after adding Aaron Civale in a deal with the Rays earlier this month, but Yelich’s injury is a difficult one to stomach for a division-leading team. There’s no comparable hitter who could be had, of course, but it stands to reason that a long-term absence for Yelich could prompt Milwaukee to look at a variety of bats who could deepen the lineup.
Reds Likely To Trade From Bullpen Depth
The Reds are telling teams they plan to trade from their bullpen, report C. Trent Rosecrans and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. That is not yet a signal about their deadline direction, though. According to the report, Cincinnati anticipates having a bullpen surplus as they expect Emilio Pagán and Ian Gibaut to return from the injured list next month.
Cincinnati has somewhat quietly had one of the better bullpens in the league. Reds relievers rank seventh with a 3.52 earned run average and are eighth with a 24.5% strikeout rate. The relief group had been a recurring problem before turning into one of the team’s strengths this year. Swingman Nick Martinez has thrived when working from the ‘pen. Fernando Cruz has developed into one of the league’s better strikeout arms, while underrated lefty Sam Moll has continued to excel after coming over from the A’s at last year’s deadline.
The Reds don’t have a ton of maneuverability with their relief group. Cruz and Moll have locked down two spots with their performance. Closer Alexis Díaz has been inconsistent, but Cincinnati isn’t going to send him down. Justin Wilson, Buck Farmer and Lucas Sims all have the requisite service time to decline a minor league assignment. Cincinnati can’t option Tony Santillan back to the minors after selecting his contract two weeks ago.
That leaves one bullpen spot with a five-man rotation. Martinez is currently working from the starting five but could slide back to the ‘pen once Carson Spiers returns from the injured list. That’d essentially complete the bullpen without having any obvious candidates to bounce between Great American Ball Park and Triple-A Louisville.
If they needed a fresh arm at that point, the Reds could designate someone for assignment. While Farmer has a 2.80 ERA over 45 innings, his strikeout and walk profile is pedestrian. Santillan had spent virtually the entire season in Triple-A, but The Athletic writes that the Reds view him as a key piece and would not want to put him back on waivers. Cincinnati could get Gibaut, Pagán and lefty Brent Suter back from injury later in the season.
While they’ll likely deal with other injuries along the way, the Reds obviously won’t be able to make any trades after next Tuesday. It seems they’re preemptively trying to get something in return for at least one or two of their relievers rather than lose players via waivers in August. The most obvious candidates for such a move are their impending free agents: Sims, Farmer and Wilson.
None of that trio would bring back a significant return. Sims, who is playing on a $2.85MM arbitration salary, has the highest ceiling of that group. He misses bats and has worked in a high-leverage capacity for the last few seasons, but he issues too many walks to be an in-demand trade chip. Sims is handing out free passes at a 13% clip over 33 frames this year after walking more than 15% of batters faced last season.
Wilson missed virtually all of 2022-23 because of Tommy John surgery and a lat injury. He returned this year with his typical velocity and has fanned more than a quarter of opponents with a 5.2% walk rate. A .365 average on balls in play has led to an unimpressive 4.85 ERA, but the 36-year-old is a fine option for teams seeking another left-hander in middle relief. Wilson is making a $1.5MM base salary.
Martinez is making $14MM this year and has a $12MM player option for next season. He’s pitching well, turning in a 3.88 ERA with excellent control over 72 frames. The fairly lofty salary and ’25 player option could lead teams to look elsewhere, though. It’s also not clear if the Reds want to deal Martinez, whose versatility they could value if they still anticipate making a playoff push.
General manager Nick Krall told Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer yesterday that the front office had not decided on their overall deadline outlook. They’re five games under .500 and in last place in the NL Central, yet they’re within 4.5 games of a Wild Card spot in a wide open National League. Cincinnati’s game against the Braves tonight was rained out. They’ll make it up with a doubleheader on Wednesday. They play a weekend set in Tampa Bay and one game against the Cubs before the deadline.
Mariners Designate Ty France For Assignment; Place Julio Rodríguez, J.P. Crawford On Injured List
The Mariners’ roster got a major shakeup today, with the club announcing a huge slate of moves. First baseman Ty France was designated for assignment while shortstop J.P. Crawford and outfielder Julio Rodríguez each landed on the 10-day injured list. Crawford has a right hand fracture while Rodríguez has a right high ankle sprain. In corresponding moves, the club recalled infielders Tyler Locklear, Leo Rivas and outfielder Cade Marlowe.
The writing seemed to be on the wall for France a few days ago. Seattle placed the 2022 All-Star on outright waivers earlier this week in hopes that another club would claim the remainder of his $6.775MM salary. Earlier today, Chris Cotillo of MassLive reported on X that France had gone unclaimed on waivers.
The Mariners didn’t have to outright France to a minor league affiliate — they could have simply decided to keep him on the roster, as the Blue Jays did with Kevin Kiermaier earlier this month when he also cleared waivers — but it seems they are committed to moving on.
Now that he’s been designated for assignment, he’s off the 40-man roster and they will technically have some time to explore trade scenarios. With France clearing waivers, the M’s at least know that they can’t just get rid of his salary, though they could perhaps eat some of that as a means of facilitating a deal. France has enough service time to reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency while retaining the remainder of his salary, so he’ll likely end up released if no trade is worked out in the coming days.
From 2020-22, the thought of placing France on waivers would’ve seemed silly. The former Padres prospect went from San Diego to Seattle as part of the Austin Nola trade at the 2020 deadline and posted a terrific .284/.354/.441 slash (127 wRC+) with 40 homers, 64 doubles and three triples. France had posted strong offense throughout his minor league tenure but drew concern from scouts about his lack of an obvious defensive home. He worked himself into a fine defender at first base though, posting average or better marks there up until an across-the-board decline this season.
France’s glove isn’t the only thing that’s taken a step back. He was barely a league-average hitter in 2023 and has seen his production dwindle further in 2024. Over his past 1005 big league plate appearances, he’s posted a punchless .241/.328/.361 slash. France is still getting on base at a decent clip, but his strikeout rate has spiked from 16.4% (2020-22) to 24.4% in 2024. This year’s 19.7% line-drive rate is a personal low, and France’s 46.3% grounder rate is the second-highest mark of his career. For a player whose average sprint speed ranks in the seventh percentile of MLB hitters (via Statcast), an uptick in grounders is particularly problematic.
Though his recent play hasn’t been up to his prior standards, France has plenty of track record. He’s been a solid right-handed bat who’s primarily played first base in the majors but has dabbled at the opposite infield corner and at second base as well. If he ends up released, a new team could sign France and would only owe him the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the big league roster, as the Mariners will remain on the hook for the rest of this year’s salary.
France would also be controllable for a new club through the 2025 campaign. He opened the current season with 4.089 years of MLB service and has already added another 117 days. That’ll push him to five-plus years. A new team could go through the arbitration process with him this offseason, or they could push for a more palatable club option to be tacked on, as the Tigers did with Carson Kelly last August following his release with the D-backs.
Crawford was hit by a pitch on the hand in last night’s game and suffered a fracture. Rodríguez collided with the outfield wall on Sunday while attempting to make a catch and was visibly injured, with video relayed on X by Fox Sports MLB.
It’s unclear how long the Mariners expect to be without those two players, but they are notable blows for a club that has already been plummeting of late. Just over a month ago, the club had a ten-game lead in the American League West. But some poor play from Seattle combined with a hot streak from the Astros now have the M’s percentage points behind Houston and also 3.5 games back of a Wild Card spot.
The timing of the injuries is not only unfortunate for that reason but also because Rodríguez was starting to heat up after a rough first half. He was hitting just .247/.297/.327 for a wRC+ of 83 through the end of June but had slashed .375/.434/.688 since the calendar flipped to July. That resurgence will now have to be put on hold for as long as he’s out.
Crawford has been scuffling this year as well, though luck could be a big factor there. He is slashing .204/.299/.347 on the year but his .243 batting average is well below his .293 career rate and the .289 league average in 2024. That has dragged his offense from last year’s 134 wRC+ to 90 this year, though he’s still been able to contribute by stealing five bases and providing above average shortstop defense. Ideally, his luck would have evened out in time but he won’t have that opportunity for as long as he’s on the IL.
The M’s will now have to try to pull themselves out of this tailspin without contributions from France, Crawford or Rodríguez. Locklear is covering first base today and could get some regular run there going forward, with Jason Vosler perhaps factoring in as well. Utility player Dylan Moore is at shortstop in tonight’s lineup and may be the regular there, with Rivas backing him up. Víctor Robles is in center field and figures to be joined in the club’s outfield mix by Canzone, Luke Raley, Mitch Haniger and Jonatan Clase.
With the trade deadline now just a week away, the Mariners figure to be looking for more offense in general and it’s been reported that they will be aggressive in doing so. At this point, there’s nothing to suggest that either Crawford or Rodríguez is facing a significant absence but it nonetheless could heighten the club’s focus on adding a bat or two. The Mariners are hitting a collective .217/.298/.364 this year for a 93 wRC+, which places them 22nd in the league.
Gomes: Dodgers Seek “Impact” Rotation Arm
Starting pitching is known to be a Dodgers priority heading into next week’s trade deadline, and general manager Brandon Gomes didn’t shy away from that in speaking with the Dodgers’ beat last night. Gomes and manager Dave Roberts publicly discussed the “difficult” decision to designate James Paxton for assignment but acknowledged that with the slate of arms they have returning from the injured list (to say nothing of a potential trade acquisition), “now would be the best time to see if there’s interest” in Paxton before the deadline (link via Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic). The Dodgers hope to trade Paxton, Ardaya reports, pointing out that a new team would only owe the lefty the prorated portion of his $4MM base salary; Paxton’s $3MM signing bonus, $2MM roster bonus and full slate of incentives have already been paid out.
On the team’s search for additional rotation help, Gomes made clear that the Dodgers aren’t prioritizing marginal upgrades or back-end innings eaters to help patch things over for the rest of the regular season. “Targeting starting pitching, but it’s going to be an impact-type arm,” Gomes said of his club’s approach to the trade deadline.
That’s a tall order, of course. The starting pitching market is generally thin. White Sox ace Garrett Crochet and Tigers righty Jack Flaherty are the two most impactful names expected to be widely available. High-profile targets like Detroit’s Tarik Skubal and, to a much lesser degree, the Cubs’ Justin Steele have at least been the subject of some speculation, but neither is expected to be traded by next Tuesday. As a rotation-hungry club with a deep stock of controllable young talent and high-end prospects, the Dodgers could put together a compelling offer to test the Tigers’ conviction on Skubal, but any such deal is a long shot and would face steep competition from the Orioles and other similarly positioned contenders.
[Related: Top 50 trade candidates for the 2024 MLB trade deadline]
ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez recently reported that Crochet sits atop the Dodgers’ deadline wish list. Given the lack of “impact” arms who can be controlled beyond the current season, that’s hardly a surprising development. Any team that acquires Crochet will have some trepidation about his workload — the lefty’s 107 1/3 innings this year exceed his combined career total since being drafted in 2020 — but there’s no denying his dominance. The former No. 11 overall pick sports a 3.02 ERA (2.35 FIP, 2.45 SIERA). His 35.2% strikeout rate is tops among the 164 pitchers who’ve tossed at least 50 innings this season. His 5.4% walk rate ranks 23rd among that same sub-set.
As evidenced by the Paxton DFA, the L.A. rotation is in a state of flux. The Dodgers are welcoming Tyler Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw back from the injured list this week. Top prospect River Ryan made his MLB debut yesterday and tossed 5 1/3 shutout frames. Yoshinobu Yamamoto is on the injured list until at least mid-August but is still expected to pitch again this season. There’s hope that recently optioned Bobby Miller can return to form and that former top starter Walker Buehler can come back from the injured list and still contribute late in the season. Other young, less-proven options for the Dodgers include Gavin Stone, Landon Knack and Justin Wrobleski. Stone, in particular, has emerged as a key arm with 18 starts of 3.19 ERA ball.
If everyone’s healthy, the Dodgers arguably already have a formidable playoff staff — but that’s a sizable “if.” Crochet would add more of a question mark to the bunch than a definitive ace, given his workload questions, but it’s also possible the Dodgers could utilize him as a multi-inning reliever late in the season or even get him some closing work. That’s speculative, to be clear, but manager Dave Roberts stopped short last night of referring to team saves leader Evan Phillips as his “closer,” Jack Harris of the L.A. Times tweets. Phillips has hit a rough stretch recently, yielding nine runs in his past 7 1/3 innings.
A pitcher like Crochet could be an “impact” arm in either a starting or relief role. He likely holds extra appeal to the Dodgers, given not only his two extra seasons of club control but his bottom-of-the-barrel $800K salary. RosterResource projects that the Dodgers already have $326MM worth of luxury obligations, placing them in the top tier of penalization. As a team paying the tax for a third consecutive season, they’re subject to a 110% overage fee on any new players acquired. Crochet will have about $258K of his salary yet to be paid out come deadline day; he’d only cost the Dodgers (or another maximum-penalty CBT team) about $542K in additional salary.
Hoyer: Cubs Prioritizing “2025 And Beyond” At Deadline
This morning, The Athletic reported that the Cubs did not anticipate buying at the deadline. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer essentially confirmed as much in a chat with reporters just before tonight’s matchup with the Brewers.
Hoyer said the front office will approach the deadline with an eye toward to the future. “Where we are right now, I would have to say that moves only for 2024 – unless things change over the next week – we probably won’t do a lot of moves that only help us for this year,” Chicago’s baseball ops leader said (link via Jesse Rogers of ESPN). “If moves help us for 2025 and beyond I think we’re exceptionally well positioned.”
While Hoyer left open the slight caveat that the situation could change this week, there’s not much ambiguity in how he expects to handle the deadline. He spoke frankly about the team’s “poor position” with regards to this season. “We simply dug a hole with underperformance for two months. That doesn’t affect how I view the organization or how I view things going forward but it certainly affects 2024,” Hoyer said.
It’s clear the Cubs aren’t going to pursue any impending free agents. Hoyer didn’t term Chicago’s approach as buying or selling. That leaves open the possibility of trying to acquire MLB talent that is under team control beyond this season. While that’s not unprecedented (the Reds’ acquisition of Trevor Bauer and the Mets’ deal for Marcus Stroman in 2019 are examples of teams acquiring controllable players at the deadline despite being out of contention), it’s not common. The Cubs would need to outbid teams that are motivated to land those players for both a potential playoff push this summer and future seasons.
Chicago’s farm system is regarded as one of the strongest in the league. That gives Hoyer and his staff the ammunition to make a deal for a controllable player of note, but the likelier outcome is that the Cubs will just move a few short-term veterans. Hoyer shot down any suggestion of a complete teardown, saying it’s “not going to be an option so (there’s) no point in going through the hypothetical.” That makes it unlikely they’d deal core pieces who are under contract or team control beyond this season (e.g. Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Ian Happ, Michael Busch).
Prioritizing 2025 would ordinarily put a team’s rentals on the table, but the Cubs don’t have much to offer in that regard. Kyle Hendricks, Drew Smyly (whose deal contains a $2.5MM buyout on a $10MM mutual option) and recent minor league signee Jorge López are the only true rentals. Hendricks is playing on a $16.5MM salary and has an earned run average pushing 7.00. While he has pitched better lately after a dismal start to the season, there’d be minimal interest. The Cubs could try to pay down almost all of the contract to find a trade partner. Hendricks also has full no-trade rights after reaching 10 years of MLB service (at least the last five of which have been with his current team) earlier this season.
Smyly has a 2.92 ERA across 37 innings in a long relief capacity. That solid run prevention isn’t supported by mediocre strikeout and walk rates (21% and 10.2%, respectively). Between his $8.5MM salary and the aforementioned option buyout, there’s likely to be limited interest in the veteran left-hander.
Cody Bellinger has the ability to opt out of the final two years and $50MM on his contract. He has had a fine but unexceptional season, hitting .269/.331/.410 across 344 plate appearances. That’d be a difficult contract to move even if Bellinger were healthy, and he went on the injured list a couple weeks ago with a broken finger.
If the Cubs wanted to more or less run things back in 2025, they’d be in for a very quiet deadline. Yet even if they’re not likely to move long-term core pieces, Chicago could entertain offers on role players who are controllable beyond this season. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported over the weekend that the Yankees and Red Sox were looking at starter Jameson Taillon, who’ll make $18MM annually between 2025-26. Rogers reports that the Cubs have also gotten interest in third baseman/DH Christopher Morel and relievers Héctor Neris, Mark Leiter Jr. and Tyson Miller.
Morel, 25, is under team control through 2028. He’ll be a borderline candidate for the Super Two cutoff for early arbitration next offseason. The Cubs are certainly under no financial pressure to move him, but it’s possible they’re prepared to move on if another team views Morel as a regular. Morel is a good athlete with big power upside who has never found a defensive home. Chicago has unsuccessfully tried him in second base and throughout the outfield in previous seasons. They’ve given him 562 innings at third base this year, hoping his top-of-the-scale arm strength would work at the position. Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average have each given him very poor grades for his stint at the hot corner.
This also hasn’t been a great season for Morel at the plate. While he has 18 homers, he’s hitting .202 with a .304 on-base mark. It’s a step down from the .241/.311/.471 career slash line that Morel carried into the season. While that’s clearly not ideal, it belies some intriguing developments from a process perspective. Morel has upped his walk rate by a couple points while dramatically slicing his strikeouts. After fanning in over 30% of his plate appearances for his first two seasons, he’s striking out 23.8% of the time this year. An unsustainably low .221 average on balls in play has kept that from materializing into better results.
Even if the Cubs expect Morel’s offensive performance to normalize with an uptick in his average on balls in play, the lack of a defensive fit makes him a difficult player to value. The Cubs could hope to turn third base over to last year’s first-round pick Matt Shaw as soon as next season. They don’t have much in the way of short-term alternatives. If the Cubs traded Morel, they’d probably rely on Miles Mastrobuoni and Patrick Wisdom to cover the position for the rest of the season.
The Cubs should be open to offers on anyone in their bullpen. Neris has handled the ninth inning since Adbert Alzolay went down with a forearm strain. The offseason signee has been shaky, walking 16.1% of opponents and blowing four saves in 17 attempts. Neris had a 1.71 ERA for the Astros last season, but that’s up two runs this year thanks to his control woes. The 35-year-old righty is playing on a $9MM salary and has a matching option for next year. That’s currently a team option but would convert to a player option if Neris pitches in 24 more games.
Given his inconsistency, the Cubs aren’t likely to want Neris back at that price point. They’d presumably be happy to find a trade partner, but the potential for being saddled with a $9MM player option if Neris hits his vesting marker could make other teams wary. There’s less risk with regards to Leiter and Miller. The former is striking out 34.4% of opponents with a 50.6% grounder rate across 34 innings. He’s playing on a $1.5MM salary and is under arbitration control through 2026. Miller, whom the Cubs acquired from Seattle in May, has broken out with a 2.04 ERA while striking out nearly 26% of opponents across 35 1/3 frames.
Whether the Cubs get compelling enough offers to move anyone from that group remains to be seen. They’re not entirely buried in the Wild Card standings, sitting 3.5 games back of the last playoff spot (currently held by the Mets). With four intervening teams to jump, the front office has decided they’re at best a long shot to make the postseason. How much they’re willing to reshape the roster with the ’25 campaign in mind will be one of the bigger questions of the upcoming week.
Dodgers Designate James Paxton For Assignment
3:40pm: The Dodgers made it official, announcing that they have selected Ryan and designated Paxton for assignment.
2:42pm: The Dodgers are designating veteran left-hander James Paxton for assignment, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. The team has not yet formally announced the move.
Paxton, 35, signed with the Dodgers on a complicated one-year deal that pays him a $3MM signing bonus, a $4MM salary, a $2MM roster bonus for making the Opening Day squad and a series of $600K and $1MM bonuses that unlock periodically based on his number of games started. Paxton has made 18 starts this season, which was the last milestone he needed to max out his contract. He’ll receive the full $13MM possible on the deal but also seems likely to finish out the season with another club, one way or another.
It’ll be a move that catches some off guard. Paxton has a solid enough 4.43 ERA and despite a laundry list of injury troubles in recent years has been the Dodgers’ healthiest starter. He’s tied with Tyler Glasnow and Gavin Stone for the team lead with 18 starts but sits well below both righties in terms of total innings, as he’s averaged fewer than five frames per start.
Paxton’s earned run average also belies some far less-encouraging numbers. His 16.4% strikeout rate is nearly six percentage points shy of the 22.3% league average, while his 12.3% walk rate is way north of the 8.2% average. He’s benefited from the help of a .267 average on balls in play that stands as the lowest mark of his career despite surrendering a career-high 90.8 mph average exit velocity and a 43.3% hard-hit rate that represents the second-worst mark of his big league tenure. Paxton has been hit particularly hard of late; dating back to June 5, he carries a 6.03 ERA in 37 1/3 innings (eight starts). Stretch that endpoint to mid-May, and Paxton has been torched for a 5.82 ERA in his past 11 starts — all while averaging less than 4 2/3 frames per outing.
The Dodgers are set to welcome both Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw back to their rotation this week. Glasnow has been out since July 9 with lower back tightness and will end up only requiring a minimum 15-day stint on the injured list. Kershaw has yet to pitch this season while rehabbing from last November’s shoulder surgery. That veteran pair will join Gavin Stone, Landon Knack and Justin Wrobleski as starting options for manager Dave Roberts, though the Dodgers are also rumored to be promoting top pitching prospect River Ryan for his debut this week. Both Ryan and Kershaw will require the Dodgers to open 40-man spots, and it seems Paxton’s DFA will create one of those two vacancies.
Beyond Kershaw and Glasnow, the Dodgers hope to have Walker Buehler and Yoshinobu Yamamoto back from the injured list at some point next month. Right-hander Bobby Miller was just optioned amid some ongoing struggles but gives the team another rotation option. And, of course, starting pitching is reportedly one of the Dodgers’ top priorities heading into next week’s trade deadline. It’d be a surprise if president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman didn’t augment his rotation in some capacity.
As for Paxton, he’ll now either be released or traded within the next week. The veteran lefty has more than enough service time to reject an outright assignment and retain his full salary, so the Dodgers likely won’t even try to outright him. It’s easy enough to see a team on the hunt for rotation help show some interest, but at the same time it’ll be tough for any club to surrender much in a trade given Paxton’s recent struggles, his relatively notable salary and the fact that once he’s released, he’d be available for nothing more than the prorated league minimum.
Cubs Don’t Expect To Be Deadline Buyers
The Cubs’ deadline trajectory has been an oft-discussed topic over the course of the past few weeks, with the team sitting at or near the bottom of the NL Central but also within striking distance of the final NL Wild Card spot. They’ve ostensibly explored possibilities on both ends of the buy/sell spectrum, showing interest in Toronto catcher Danny Jansen while also reportedly talking with both the Yankees and Red Sox about the potential of a Jameson Taillon trade. The Cubs dropped their first two games coming out of the All-Star break to a D-backs team that’s now tied for the final Wild Card spot, though they dodged a sweep in an extra-inning win Sunday.
While the Cubs are 3.5 games out in the Wild Card hunt, the latest report from Patrick Mooney, Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic indicates that the Cubs aren’t planning to be buyers at next week’s trade deadline. That’s not an indication there’ll be any kind of prominent fire sale for the Cubs either, however. Chicago hopes to contend next year and isn’t likely to move players who are under control unless they receive big league-ready talent in return.
As for the Cubs’ slate of rental players, there’s simply not much to peddle to other clubs. Drew Smyly is sitting on an impressive 2.92 ERA in 37 relief innings, but he’s also walked 10.2% of his opponents and is playing on a contract other teams will want to avoid. Smyly is owed the balance of an $8.5MM salary for the current season (about $3.2MM) in addition to a $2.5MM buyout on a $10MM mutual option for the 2025 season.
Righty Kyle Hendricks is a free agent at season’s end but isn’t going to draw any interest with a $16MM salary and a 6.69 ERA (unless the Cubs eat the entirety of his contract, perhaps). Hector Neris has a 3.74 ERA and 24.2% strikeout rate in 33 2/3 innings — but he’s also walked a career-worst 16.1% of opponents. Neris is playing on a $9MM salary, and his $9MM club option will convert to a player option if he appears in 24 more games this season (60 total). That’s going to turn off any potentially interested parties. Cody Bellinger can become a free agent at season’s end, but he’s on the injured list with a fractured finger and the two opt-out provisions on his three-year deal would’ve made trading him extraordinarily difficult anyhow.
The Athletic’s report at least raises the speculative possibility of listening to offers for starter Justin Steele, though with three-plus seasons of club control remaining, the price would presumably be as high or even higher than the asks for crosstown ace Garrett Crochet (two years of club control remaining) and AL Cy Young front-runner Tarik Skubal (the latter of whom is not expected to be traded). There’s no reason to think the Cubs would outwardly shop Steele, but listening to see if someone steps up with a Juan Soto-esque haul for last year’s fifth-place NL Cy Young finisher is sensible enough.
With regard to Taillon, there’d be some sense to moving him even if the team doesn’t envision a broad-reaching sell-off. In signing any free agent to a long-term deal, a team is most interested in the first couple years of said contract. The 2025-26 seasons will be Taillon’s age-33 and age-34 campaigns. He’ll earn $18MM in each season on his slightly backloaded $68MM deal. Moving him would free up some money to potentially spend on a younger pitcher this offseason — or perhaps on another area of need entirely.
The Cubs control Steele, Shota Imanaga, Javier Assad, Ben Brown, Hayden Wesneski and Jordan Wicks through at least the 2027 season. Prospects Cade Horton and Brandon Birdsell are rising quickly through the system. There’s some depth from which to deal, and a Taillon trade could bring in talent, shed future payroll and reduce future luxury tax obligations. Taillon wouldn’t command nearly the same type of haul as Steele for a number of reasons (age, salary, general talent level), but there aren’t many arms available so the Cubs could conceivably take advantage of that shortage and see what the market bears.
It’s worth emphasizing, too, that most teams’ plans remain pretty fluid this time of year. While teams facing a gaps of eight, nine, ten or more games in their respective postseason pursuits are sure to focus on selling (just as clubs in the opposite position will primarily focus on adding), nearly half the teams in baseball exist in a relative purgatory between those two ends of the spectrum. There’s currently a three-team tie for the third NL Wild Card spot (Mets, D-backs, Padres), and another five teams are within four games of that final spot — the Cubs among them. In the American League, there are four teams within six games of the final Wild Card spot.
For instance, if the Cubs snapped off six or seven straight wins beginning today, they’d presumably be far more open to the idea of adding some pieces. That’s particularly true because their next three games come against the division-leading Brewers. But a win streak of that nature is always a long shot, and it’s plenty notable that for the time being, Chicago isn’t viewing itself as a team that will trade even lower-caliber minor league talent in exchange for some marginal rental upgrades. Time will tell whether the players on the field can push the front office to take a more aggressive stance, but right now it seems likely the Cubs are in for a relatively quiet deadline.