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Eduardo Rodriguez Not Traded; Vetoed Deal To Dodgers

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5:05pm: The Tigers did not trade Rodriguez, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.  If Rodriguez opts out of his contract after the season as expected, the 2023 trade deadline will have to be viewed as a missed opportunity for the club, as he is ineligible for a qualifying offer.  According to Rosenthal’s colleague Fabian Ardaya, Rodriguez vetoed the trade to the Dodgers due to “a desire to remain closer to family on the east coast.”

3:54pm: Tigers lefty Eduardo Rodriguez invoked his no-trade clause to kill a trade to the Dodgers, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan.  Passan writes that a deal was in place pending Rodriguez’s approval, but is now dead.  Rodriguez’s contract allows him to block deals to ten teams annually, and the Dodgers were on his list.  Now, the Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris has approximately one hour before today’s trade deadline to find a new deal for Rodriguez.

Earlier this afternoon, the Tigers reached an agreement to send Rodriguez’s rotation-mate Michael Lorenzen to the Phillies for infield prospect Hao-Yu Lee.  Finding a match for Rodriguez is crucial for Detroit, because he’s possibly the best starting pitcher on the trade market, he’s ineligible for a qualifying offer after the season, and he’s likely to opt out of his remaining three years and $49MM.  The Tigers still have 19 teams to which Rodriguez cannot block a deal.

The Padres were said to have interest in Rodriguez, but that may have changed upon their acquisition of Rich Hill.  Plus, it’s possible Rodriguez’s aversion to the Dodgers is a geographical thing and the Padres are also on his list.  The Orioles, Reds, and Diamondbacks could still be possibilities.

The Dodgers, though they’ve added Lance Lynn, have now missed out on top targets Justin Verlander and Rodriguez.  It’s unclear on where they may turn; yesterday, Jack Harris of the L.A. Times suggested Plan C could be to do nothing.  The Cardinals’ Jack Flaherty is still a candidate to move.

White Sox Not Trading Dylan Cease

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5:01pm: The MLB trade deadline has passed, and the White Sox did not trade Cease, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today.

1:26pm: The White Sox are taking offers on everyone on the roster aside from star center fielder Luis Robert, reports Bruce Levine of 670 The Score (on Twitter). Most notably, that includes 2022 Cy Young runner-up Dylan Cease.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweets the asking price was high enough that rival teams feel he’s unlikely to move. Nevertheless, The Post’s Joel Sherman indicates the Sox are “more serious” than they had been about the possibility.

Certainly, there’s no guarantee the White Sox will make a deal. They’d need to be blown away by the package of young talent to do so. Yet it seems they’re at least more open to the idea than they had been, and that they consider Robert on a different level of unattainability than they do Cease.

Cease hasn’t been as dominant as he was last season. His ERA has jumped nearly two runs, up from 2.20 to 4.15 across 119 1/3 innings. There’s been a slight dip in the underlying performance, though it’s not as dramatic as the ERA differential would indicate. Cease’s strikeout rate has decreased from 30.4% to 27.6%, while his swinging strikes have fallen from 15% to 13.6%. Both latter marks are still well above-average, though.

The biggest factor in Cease’s more middling ERA is simply a change in ball-in-play results. Last year’s .260 opponents’ BABIP always looked unlikely to maintain, though this year’s .320 mark probably represents an overcorrection. Cease issues a few more walks than ideal, but he’s capable of missing bats at a rate matched by few other starters and is at least a high-quality #2 arm.

With multiple years of control, Chicago’s asking price should be astronomical. Cease is playing this year on a $5.7MM salary, around $1.87MM of which is yet to be paid out. He’ll be due a pair of arbitration raises before getting to free agency after the 2025 campaign.

Chicago is clearly in sell mode, though their moves to date have mostly been on players with limited control windows. Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo López, Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly all seemed likely to hit free agency after this season. Kendall Graveman was under contract for another year, but he’s a setup reliever having a fine but not overwhelming season. Moving Cease would deal a far greater hit to their chances of reversing their fortunes in 2024, though it stands to reason they’d look for upper minors or controllable MLB talent in those discussions.

Other Chicago players seem far likelier to go. Middle reliever Keynan Middleton is an impending free agent who’ll almost certainly move. The club holds a $14MM option on shortstop Tim Anderson, who is having a very poor season. Anderson has hit well over the last two weeks but still holds a .245/.286/.293 batting line in 357 plate appearances overall. That could leave the Sox with a borderline decision on the option and/or a tough call whether to part with him this afternoon. Russell Dorsey of Bally Sports tweets that the Sox have discussed Anderson with multiple teams; the Marlins were loosely linked to the two-time All-Star in a report from ESPN’s Jesse Rogers last week.

Yankees Acquire Keynan Middleton

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The Yankees and White Sox have agreed to a trade that will send Keynan Middleton to the Bronx, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports (Twitter link).  Right-hander Juan Carela will head from New York to Chicago in return, according to YES Network’s Joe LoGrippo (via Twitter).

Middleton becomes the latest player moved in what has been a significant pre-deadline selloff from Chicago, while the Yankees have now made their first notable deadline move.  While New York had been reportedly looking to add some controllable pieces, the Bombers will instead make a short-term move in Middleton, who is a free agent after the season.

Signed to a minor league deal by the White Sox over the winter, Middleton was looking to rebuild his career after a trio of rocky seasons with the Angels, Mariners, and Diamondbacks.  Breaking into the majors as a member of the Angels’ bullpen in 2017, Middleton showed some intriguing promise in his rookie season but Tommy John surgery sidelined him for most of the next two years.

Now 29 years old, Middleton finally started to get back on track this season in Chicago.  He has a 3.96 ERA over 36 1/3 innings, with an excellent 30.3% strikeout rate and elite chase and whiff rates.  Control has been an issue, as Middleton’s 10.3% walk rate is well below league average, and he also has a 9.8% barrel rate despite good hard-hit ball numbers overall.

A lot of that damage has come within the last month.  Middleton had a 2.33 ERA through his first 29 appearances and 27 innings, but he has since posted an 8.68 ERA over his last 9 1/3 innings of work, allowing at least one earned run in six of 10 appearances.  These recent struggles surely impacted Chicago’s asking price, but the Yankees felt comfortable enough to take the plunge on the low-cost addition.

The right-hander joins a New York bullpen that has been one of the game’s better relief corps this season, and since the Yankees were otherwise very quiet with their deadline moves, it seems as though the club is doubling down on its strong pen to try and sneak into a wild card berth.  Clay Holmes and Michael King get most of the save chances and highest-leverage work, but there’s plenty of flexibility for Middleton to earn him more looks in key late-game situations.

The 21-year-old Carela has a 3.67 ERA over 83 1/3 innings (starting 16 of 17 games) with the Yankees’ high-A affiliate in Hudson Valley this season, with a 9.1% walk rate and an impressive 31.1% strikeout rate.  MLB Pipeline ranked Carela as the 29th-best prospect in New York’s farm system, describing the right-hander as a possible back-end rotation piece if he improves his control and command.  Carela has a plus slider as well as a sweeper, a pitch taught to many hurlers in the Yankees organization in recent years.

Orioles Acquire Jack Flaherty From Cardinals

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The Orioles have acquired right-hander Jack Flaherty from the Cardinals, per announcements from both clubs. Infielder César Prieto, left-hander Drew Rom and right-hander Zack Showalter are heading the other way.

Flaherty, 27, has seemed like a clear trade candidate for a while now. He’s an impending free agent on a Cardinals club that has struggled all year, currently sporting a record of 47-60 that has them 10 games out of a playoff spot. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak admitted about three weeks ago that the Cards would have to make moves aimed at improving their chances in 2024. With his impending free agency, Flaherty was one of the obvious pieces to go and recently received interest from clubs such as the Dodgers and Rays.

Not too long ago, Flaherty seemed to be a burgeoning ace in St. Louis. He tossed 151 innings over 28 starts in 2018, allowing 3.34 earned runs per nine innings. He followed that up with an even better showing in 2019, dropping his ERA to 2.75 in 196 1/3 over 33 starts. He struck out 29.9% of batters faced that year while walking just 7.1%, finishing fourth in the voting for National League Cy Young.

But it’s been a different story since then. He struggled in the shortened season by posting a 4.91 ERA in nine starts. The year after, he made multiple trips to the injured list, being sidelined by a left oblique issue and then a right shoulder strain and ultimately tossing 78 1/3 innings that year. Those shoulder issues lingered into 2022 and he was only able to throw 36 innings last year.

With all of those issues, he came into 2023 having only thrown 154 2/3 innings in the previous three years combined. That made him a fairly unknown quantity, but he has settled in somewhere in between his previous ace form and the more recent struggles. He’s stayed healthy all year, having taken the ball 20 times and logging 109 2/3 innings already, but with a 4.43 ERA that’s not terribly exciting. His 21.9% strikeout rate and 11.1% walk rate are both a few ticks worse than league averages, with his 44.6% ground ball rate only slightly better.

If one wanted to be more charitable, they could look to the fact that his results have gotten better over time, in a sense. He had a 6.29 ERA through the first week of May, thanks in part to a 10-run disaster against the Angels on May 4. Since then, he’s posted a much nicer 3.58 ERA over 75 1/3 innings. Any pitcher’s stats would look better if you removed their worst start, but with Flaherty’s limited workload in the previous three years, perhaps he was still getting into a groove.

The Orioles will seemingly be hoping that the charitable outlook on Flaherty is correct. They have shot up to the top of the American League with a 65-41 record, though mostly on the backs of their position players and bullpen. Their starting rotation has been an obvious weak point, with a collective 4.48 ERA that puts them 16th out of the 30 major league teams. They were connected to various starting pitchers from Justin Verlander, Michael Lorenzen and Shohei Ohtani but the deadline has now passed with Flaherty as their sole rotation upgrade.

The club recently optioned Tyler Wells, leaving them with a rotation of Kyle Gibson, Grayson Rodriguez, Dean Kremer and Kyle Bradish, with Flaherty added in. Bradish is the only one of that group with an ERA better than 4.40. They have shown they can win with this group, but it will be an interesting gambit come playoff time, when the front of a club’s rotation tends to become more important.

For the Cardinals, they have added many young players to their system this week by trading away Jordan Montgomery, Jordan Hicks, Paul DeJong, Génesis Cabrera and Flaherty. In this deal, they will add three more players to their system.

Prieto, 24, broke into the Cuban National Series as a teenager before signing with the Orioles in January of 2022. He split last year between High-A and Double-A, hitting .273/.314/.404 for a wRC+ of 96. This year, he’s hit .349/.393/.475 between Double-A and Triple-A, leading to a 132 wRC+. He’s played all three of the infield positions to the left of first base this year. Baseball America recently ranked him the #14 prospect in the Orioles’ system with FanGraphs putting him at #26.

Rom, 23, has been starting in Triple-A this year with a 5.34 ERA over 86 innings. He’s struck out 25.1% of batters while walking 11.5% and getting grounders at a 47.7% clip. It’s possible his .391 batting average on balls in play is pushing some extra runs across the board, leading to his 4.21 FIP. BA ranked him the #16 prospect in Baltimore’s system with FanGraphs at #30. Showalter, 19, was just drafted in the 11th round last year and has been pitching in the lower levels of Baltimore’s system this year.

For the Cardinals, this trade and the others have allowed them to stockpile some young talent as they look to reload for 2024. For the Orioles, this is their first competitive season since Mike Elias became the general manager in November of 2018. The club has generally been cautious in free agency in that time, having not given out any multi-year deals to free agents. Now their first deadline in buyer position has seen them acquire two rental pitchers in Flaherty and Shintaro Fujinami.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported that the O’s were close to getting Flaherty. Francys Romero first had Prieto’s involvement. Jeff Passan of ESPN first had Rom while Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com added Showalter.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

D-Backs Acquire Tommy Pham

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The Diamondbacks acquired outfielder Tommy Pham and cash considerations from the Mets. New York received minor league infielder Jeremy Rodriguez in return. The Mets are reportedly paying down half the money that remains on Pham’s deal.

Pham got off to a relatively slow start after signing with the Mets over the offseason. He hit only .196/.283/.348 through the end of April, leading to some speculation the Mets could cut into his playing time. The veteran put that behind him and has been one of the league’s better hitters since the start of May.

Over the past three months, the 35-year-old is hitting .286/.365/.503. He’s up to a .268/.348/.472 line in 264 plate appearances overall. Pham has connected on 10 home runs, walked at a strong 11% clip and kept his strikeouts to a decent 21.2% rate. It’s easily his best offensive showing in four years, more or less a return to his peak form.

A right-handed hitter, Pham has done the bulk of his damage against left-handed pitching through the course of his career. He has had more balanced results in 2023, posting a .255/.339/.532 line versus southpaws and a .277/.355/.431 showing against right-handed pitching. That kind of production fits well in the middle of a batting order.

Pham’s bat is his calling card. He has started five games in center field this year but is primarily a left fielder. Public metrics have pegged him as a slightly below-average defender for the past few seasons. It’s been a similar story through 395 2/3 innings this year.

The Mets have dramatically reshaped the roster within the past week. They’ve been expected to listen to offers on rentals, but the magnitude of their sell-off has outstretched expectations. The deals of Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander represent a massive change in direction for the organization. Moving shorter-term role players like Pham is relatively small in comparison.

Pham received a $1MM signing bonus and is playing this season on a $5MM salary. He’s due roughly $1.64MM from now through the end of the season, with each club picking up around $800K. He’ll tack on a good chunk more in incentives. Pham has already triggered $400K in bonuses and will earn another $200K for every 25 plate appearances between 275 and 450.

Arizona has a number of young outfielders at the major league level. Corbin Carroll, Alek Thomas and Jake McCarthy all hit from the left side. Thomas hasn’t produced much offensively in his career, while McCarthy has slumped to a .251/.326/.346 line through 75 games after a promising 2022 campaign. Arizona brought in Kyle Lewis and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in offseason trades to balance the outfield. Lewis has spent most of his time in Triple-A; Gurriel got off to a torrid start in the desert but has just a .180/.225/.337 line since the beginning of June.

The Pham acquisition presumably pushes Gurriel into more of a bench/designated hitter role. The D-Backs have rotated a number of players through the DH spot to keep them fresh throughout the season.

Rodriguez is a 17-year-old infielder from the Dominican Republic. The Snakes signed him for $1.25MM just a few months ago. Ben Badler of Baseball America praised his left-handed swing and infield actions in reviewing Arizona’s international signing class. Rodriguez is nowhere close to the majors but resents another upside lottery play for New York, a similar mold to the two players they acquired from the Marlins for David Robertson last week.

Andy Martino of SNY first reported the Diamondbacks were acquiring Pham. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported the Mets would get Rodriguez in return. Tim Britton of the Athletic reported the cash considerations.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Brendan Donovan To Undergo Season-Ending Surgery

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Cardinals infielder/outfielder Brendan Donovan is set to undergo season-ending surgery tomorrow, per Katie Woo of The Athletic. Donovan has been dealing with a flexor tendon injury in his throwing arm recently, which had prevented him from throwing and relegated him to DH duties. Per Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat, Donovan should be ready to return from the surgery to correct that flexor strain before Spring Training 2024.

Donovan, 26, immediately made an impression upon making his big league debut with the Cardinals last season. He slashed a strong .281/.394/.379 in 126 games for the club, goo for a wRC+ of 129, while playing quality defense at all four infield spots and both outfield corners. That quality defense and versatility earned him a Gold Glove award last year, and those skills along with his knack for getting on base allowed him to finish third in NL Rookie of the Year award voting.

The 26-year-old utility ace took a slight step back at the plate in his sophomore season as he discipline for additional power. His walk rate dipped from a sterling 12.8% to a more pedestrian 8.9% this season, though his ISO ticked up from just .097 last year up to a more respectable .138 during the current campaign. That increase in power combined with his trademark versatility has allowed him to remain an above-average regular this year, with 2.1 fWAR in 371 trips to the plate.

Unfortunately, Donovan’s 2023 campaign has come to a premature end thanks to the aforementioned flexor strain, an ailment that prevented him from taking the field for nearly the entire month of July. The loss of Donovan for the season further damages the competitiveness of a Cardinals club that has already shipped out Jordan Montgomery, Jordan Hicks, Chris Stratton, and Paul DeJong out this trade season, with more deals expected before the deadline.

As things stand, the club figures to utilize Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Gorman, Tommy Edman, and Nolan Arenado in the infield with Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson, Lars Nootbaar, Tyler O’Neill, and Dylan Carlson all in the outfield/DH mix, though further trades ahead of the deadline could change that playing time picture.

Padres Acquire Rich Hill, Ji Man Choi From Pirates

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4:00pm: The Padres have officially announced the deal.

12:08pm: The Padres are finalizing a trade that will see them acquire left-hander Rich Hill and first baseman Ji Man Choi from the Pirates, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. The Pirates will receive three minor league players in return, per Robert Murray of FanSided. One the prospects is Jackson Wolf, per Heyman. The other two players are Estuar Suero and Alfonso Rivas, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post.

The Padres spent heavily this winter but currently sport a disappointing 52-55 record that has them five games back in the National League Wild Card race. That puts them in a somewhat similar position to the Mets, who have been busy selling in recent days, flipping players like Max Scherzer, Mark Canha and David Robertson. The Padres, however, have decided on a different path and seem intent on buying. Recent reporting connected them to bats and relievers, as well as starters like Eduardo Rodriguez and Justin Verlander.

Choi, 32, could be the offensive upgrade they seek, though it’s not one without risk. He started the season with a dismal .125/.125/.344 line through nine games before landing on the injured list due to a left Achilles tendon strain. He returned from the IL a month ago and has been on a heater, slashing .268/.295/.634 since being activated. That’s a small sample of just 44 plate appearances, though it’s closer to his previous track record than that early-season slump. From 2017 to 2022, Choi hit .245/.350/.436 for a wRC+ of 120.

Choi played some left field earlier in his career but has been first base only for many years now. That happens to be a spot where the Padres could use some help. Jake Cronenworth has been the regular at that spot this season after hitting .256/.338/.431 in the previous three campaigns but he’s slashing just .219/.310/.365 here in 2023. He has the ability to play the other infield slots, so perhaps he moves into more of a utility role going forward.

Hill, 43, gives the Padres a reliable lefty for the back of their bullpen. He’s obviously been around for many years, but is still fairly effective. He has a 4.76 ERA in 22 starts this season, striking out 19.6% of opponents against an 8.9% walk rate. The Padres already have a strong top of the rotation with pitchers like Joe Musgrove and Blake Snell. The latter is an impending free agent and speculative trade candidate, though it seems the Padres are inclined to hold on and try to compete this year.

As for the rest of the rotation, Yu Darvish and Seth Lugo have a couple of spots spoken for but Michael Wacha has been on the injured list for close to a month due to a shoulder issue. The Friars have since given spot starts to pitchers like Wolf, Adrián Morejón and Ryan Weathers without much success and will now patch that hole over with Hill. Wacha is expected back in mid-August, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. If everyone is healthy at that point, the club may have to use a six-man rotation or bump someone to the bullpen, but that would likely be considered a good problem to have.

It’s unclear if any money is exchanging hands in the deal. Choi is making $4.65MM this year, his final arbitration season before becoming a free agent, with about $1.53MM left to be paid out. Hill signed a straight one-year, $8MM deal in the offseason, with about $2.62MM left on that. That means there’s a total of $4.15MM going to the Padres unless the Pirates have thrown in some cash considerations. Roster Resource has already added those figures to San Diego’s competitive balance tax figure, which now sits at $280MM. It had been speculated by some observers that the Padres, if they sold, would try to dip under the third CBT line of $273MM. That would have prevented their top 2024 draft pick from being moved back 10 spots, but now that they are adding rather than subtracting, that doesn’t seem likely.

For the Pirates, they started out strong this year but have faded from contention, currently sitting nine games out of a playoff spot. It’s perfectly sensible for them to give up a couple of impending free agents for pieces that could help them in the future. Rivas seems like he could potentially step right in and replace Choi at first base, especially since the Pirates also flipped Carlos Santana in recent days.

Rivas, 26, made his major league debut with the Cubs in 2021 but was released in January of this year and signed a minor league deal with the Padres. Between the two clubs, he has a .245/.330/.323 batting line in the majors, walking at a decent 9.9% clip but striking out in 31.2% of his plate appearances. But he’s hit a much stronger .313/.424/.492 in Triple-A, dating back to 2019. The Pirates could perhaps give him the last couple months of the season to get major league reps and see if he can carry any of that up with him. He can also slot into an outfield corner.

Wolf, 24, was just added to the club’s 40-man roster a couple of weeks ago. He was recently ranked the club’s #11 prospect by FanGraphs and #20 by Baseball America. He posted a 3.39 ERA in Double-A prior to his recent promotion. After one big league start of five innings, he was sent back down and shelled for eight earned runs in another Double-A start, but his ERA at that level still sits at 4.08 for the year. He can provide the Pirates with some immediate rotation depth and perhaps be in line for more time in the big leagues this year or next.

Suero, 17, is a much longer-term prospect acquisition for the Pirates. FanGraphs listed him as San Diego’s #10 prospect last month, but added that he’s probably the most high-variance member of the bunch. They list him as a 6’5″ outfielder who used to be very skinny but has recently gotten stronger. He’s striking out in about 30% of his plate appearances in the lower levels of the minors but has the speed-and-defense combo down. The key question will be whether he hits or not.

With still a few hours to go, the ever-busy Padres might still make a few more moves, while the Pirates might still move someone like Austin Hedges. Players like Mitch Keller and David Bednar have also drawn interest but they each still have years of club control and seem unlikely to be moved.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Marlins To Acquire Jake Burger

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The Marlins and White Sox have agreed to a deal sending infielder Jake Burger from Chicago to Miami in exchange for left-handed pitching prospect Jake Eder, reports Craig Mish of SportsGrid and the Miami Herald (Twitter links).

It’s a surprise deal given that the White Sox’ focus has generally been on trading short-term assets during their summer sell-off. Burger, 27, will be controllable for another five years beyond the current season and is batting .214/.279/.527. He’s already slugged a whopping 25 home runs on the season but also has the fifth-worst on-base percentage and sixth-highest strikeout rate (31.6%) of any player in the Majors (min. 300 plate appearances). The Marlins, with MLB’s third-fewest home runs (96 total), seemingly view those as acceptable trade-offs to add some pop to lineup that’s heavily reliant on stringing hits together.

Where Burger will line up on the diamond remains to be seen. He’s played primarily third base in his young big league career but drawn poor ratings there (-8 Defensive Runs Saved, -8 Outs Above Average, -3.6 Ultimate Zone Rating). Miami has been using the struggling Jean Segura at the hot corner and could certainly supplant him with Burger’s power bat, but Burger also has experience at second base and first base. The Fish currently have Garrett Cooper taking the bulk of the reps at first, but he’s in his final season of club control and has been a trade candidate at each of the past couple deadlines.

Whether Burger immediately begins to step into a more prominent role at first base or splits his time between the infield corners and designated hitter, he’ll give the Marlins an immediate jolt of power. Looking beyond the 2023 season, both the first base and designated hitter slots in the lineup figure to be vacant; Cooper is a free agent, and while Jorge Soler is technically signed through 2024, he can also opt out of the final one year and $9MM of his contract at the end of the current season.

Subtracting Burger from the White Sox’ long-term outlook obviously takes away a good bit of power potential, but if the club isn’t sold on his defensive acumen at third base then he becomes a tough fit. Chicago has Andrew Vaughn and Eloy Jimenez locked in as long-term options at first base and designated hitter, respectively, so it could prove difficult to find Burger regular at-bats if his glove is indeed a prominent concern.

It’s also possible that the Sox simply felt Eder too talented a prospect to pass up on when presented the opportunity to acquire him. The 2020 fourth-round pick had pitched his way into top-100 prospect status prior to undergoing Tommy John surgery and has already made his way to the Double-A level this year upon returning. Eder, a Vanderbilt product, posted a 1.17 ERA in 71 1/3 innings in his first pro season before going under the knife, and he’s returned with 39 1/3 innings of 4.12 ERA ball. FanGraphs has already plugged him right back into their top-100 list, ranking him as the Marlins’ No. 1 prospect and the No. 54 prospect in baseball.

Scouting reports on Eder tout his mid-90s heater and a slider that FanGraphs touts as “one of the nastiest pitches on the planet.” Eder also has a changeup that’s well behind his header and breaking ball, but both BA and FanGraphs agree it can be an average pitch with further refinement. There are certainly some concerns for any young pitcher coming off major arm surgery, and Eder’s 12.5% walk rate will need to be refined. However, he’s already pitching in Double-A, and it’s feasible that he could be an option for the ChiSox as soon as next season. He might be on something of a limited workload next year, depending on how high his innings total climbs this year, but he’ll immediately become the system’s top pitching prospect.

Brewers, Diamondbacks Swap Andrew Chafin For Peter Strzelecki

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The Brewers have picked up left-hander Andrew Chafin in a trade with the Diamondbacks, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link).  John Gambadoro of 98.7 FM Phoenix reports that right-hander Peter Strzelecki is headed back to the D’Backs in return.  Rosenthal linked Milwaukee to Chafin’s market earlier today.

Give how Arizona also just landed Paul Sewald from the Mariners yesterday, it makes for an interesting buy/sell dynamic with the Diamondbacks’ front office.  Obviously the D’Backs have designs on reaching the postseason, yet still opted to pull the trigger on dealing a reliever who is technically a rental player, since Chafin only signed a one-year, $6.25MM deal last winter.  However, he is controllable through next season via a $7.25MM club option ($750K buyout), so the Brew Crew could potentially be viewing Chafin as a member of their 2024 bullpen.  Incidentally, Chafin also receives a $250K bonus now that he has been traded.

That said, the D’Backs are also getting back a controllable reliever in Strzelecki, who has posted some good results over his two MLB seasons.  Since Strzelecki isn’t a free agent until after the 2028 season and naturally comes at a much lower price tag than Chafin, the Diamondbacks saved some money while perhaps not taking much of a hit to the overall quality of their relief corps.

Chafin has a 4.19 ERA over 34 1/3 innings this season, with that number only just inflated by a disastrous outing (five runs in two-thirds of an inning) against the Braves on July 24.  The southpaw’s SIERA is a more solid 3.38, and his 32.7% strikeout rate put him the 94th percentile of all pitchers.  Chafin’s control has fluctuated throughout his career, and the pendulum has swung down this season, as he has an ungainly 12.0% walk rate.

Now in his 10th MLB season, Chafin has been a generally reliable relief arm over his career, and he’ll now change uniforms once again to join a Brewers team in severe need of left-handed depth.  While Hoby Milner is having a strong season, he has been the only left-hander in Milwaukee’s bullpen for most of the season.  The Brewers were hoping to have Justin Wilson back from Tommy John surgery, yet Wilson unfortunately suffered a lat strain while warming up in his return outing, and was placed back onto the 15-day injured list.

With no timeline yet on Wilson’s return, it is easy to see why the Brewers were so aggressive in seeking out another left-hander, and in dealing a controllable pitcher from their right-handed relief depth.  Strzelecki was an undrafted free agent for the Brewers in 2018, but he made his way to the majors to toss 70 2/3 innings for Milwaukee over the last two seasons.  Despite near-identical SIERAs (3.47 and 3.66) and pretty similar secondary metrics over his two years of work, Strzelecki had a 2.83 ERA over 35 frames in 2022, but a 4.54 ERA in 35 2/3 innings this season.

One of a few hidden pitching gems uncovered by the Brewers front office and pitching development staff, Strzelecki has a 25.3% strikeout rate and 8.2% walk rate over his career, both above the league average.  A slightly loss of control (though not in the walk category) could be one reason for Strzelecki’s relative dropoff in performance this year, as he has hit eight batters.  The Brewers only just called Strzelecki back up from the minors after a month-long stint at Triple-A, and he didn’t make another appearance prior to the trade.

“No Significant Structural Damage” For Bo Bichette Following Knee Injury

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3:11pm: Bichette has “no significant structural damage,” according to manager John Schneider, with Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reporting.  According to Nicholson-Smith, an “IL stint hasn’t been ruled out but [the] Jays will play it out for a few days first.”  Based on this information, it appears the Blue Jays may have dodged a serious injury to Bichette.  Nonetheless, earlier today they acquired Paul DeJong from the Cardinals.

9:45am: The Blue Jays expect to have more information about Bichette’s injury by noon ET, tweets Buster Olney of ESPN. That doesn’t guarantee they’ll publicly divulge anything at that point, but it’ll give them around six hours to search for alternatives if Bichette ends up missing time and the Jays feel it best to seek for help from outside the organization.

8:49am: Blue Jays star shortstop Bo Bichette suffered a right knee injury last night, and his prognosis figures to weigh heavily on the club’s trade deadline plans.  In the third inning of the club’s eventual loss to Baltimore, Bichette hit a potential double down the right field line, rounding first and then slamming on the brakes when right fielder Anthony Santander got the ball in quickly.  As you can see in the linked video, Bichette’s injury was significant enough that he gave himself up between first and second base.  He was able to walk off the field on his own accord, but with a limp.

As The Athletic’s Kaitlyn McGrath reported last night, the Jays are currently calling the injury “right knee discomfort.”  It stands to reason the club might keep further information under wraps until after today’s 5pm central time trade deadline so as not to reduce their leverage in talks for some sort of help at shortstop.  The Blue Jays currently hold the last wild card spot in the American League.

Bichette, the AL leader in batting average and hits, is irreplaceable.  He’s rarely missed a game in the last three seasons, and was well on his way to a five-WAR season.  Certainly Jays GM Ross Atkins cannot go out and find another player of Bichette’s caliber.  Santiago Espinal replaced Bichette in the game and represents the short-term solution.  MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson ran through the Jays’ Triple-A shortstop situation, which does not present a clear replacement.

Matheson throws out a pair of potentially-available names in Tim Anderson of the White Sox and Paul DeJong of the Cardinals.  The Blue Jays and Cardinals already got together a couple days ago on the Jordan Hicks trade, and Atkins has suggested “bigger concepts” were discussed (Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reporting).

As McGrath put it, adding a right-handed bat to the lineup was already “a huge priority” for Toronto, but it’s possible adding a middle infielder could jump to the top of the list.  The team has used Whit Merrifield, Espinal, and Cavan Biggio at second base, all of whom are capable of playing elsewhere on the diamond.

Plenty of middle infielders have already been on the move in the past week, including Jace Peterson, Nicky Lopez, Amed Rosario, and Kiké Hernandez.  Most second basemen likely to be available are hitting quite poorly this year, such as Kolten Wong, Tony Kemp, and Aledmys Diaz.  Elvis Andrus is capable of playing shortstop, but he too is struggling with the bat.

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