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Rays Sign Danny Jansen

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The Rays have upgraded behind the plate. Tampa Bay announced they have signed free agent catcher Danny Jansen on a one-year deal with a mutual option for 2026. The contract reportedly guarantees the ISE Baseball client $8.5MM — taking the form of an $8MM salary and a $500K buyout on the $12MM option. Jansen reportedly declined multi-year proposals in order to return to the open market next winter.

Jansen, 29, is a longtime division foe, having spent his entire career to date with the Blue Jays and, briefly this summer, the Red Sox. He’s a rebound candidate looking to bounce back after a down year at the plate in which he slashed just .206/.308/.348 in 328 plate appearances. It was a rough year and a particularly rough finish for Jansen, but heading into the season he looked primed for a notable deal in free agency. From 2021-23, he slashed a combined .237/.317/.487 (121 wRC+) — including a huge .260/.339/.516 showing in 2022.

Any discussion of Jansen’s downturn at the plate should take note of the fact that he opened the season on the injured list due to a fracture in his wrist he suffered during spring training. Jansen raced out of the gate with a .295/.375/.533 slash through his first 120 plate appearances before falling into a prolonged slump from which he never really recovered. Jansen hit just .150/.270/.237 over his final 204 trips to the plate.

(Anecdotally, Jansen also became the first player in MLB history to play for both teams in the same game, starting for the Jays in a rain-suspended game against the Red Sox that was subsequently finished in the second half — after he’d been traded to Boston.)

Jansen still walked at a stout 12.7% clip in that time and fanned in a slightly lower-than-average 21% of his plate appearances. However, his quality of contact went into the tank (85 mph average exit velocity, 24.2% hard-hit rate). Jansen’s .172 average on balls in play during that span of just over 200 plate appearances was surely indicative of some poor fortune, but the lack of quality contact underscores that it wasn’t mere bad luck on its own.

The Rays will hope a healthier Jansen can help them solve a need behind the plate that has persisted for several seasons. Tampa Bay’s catchers last year were predictably among the least-productive in the league — as one would expect when opening the year with journeyman Alex Jackson and a defensive specialist like Ben Rortvedt as the big league catching tandem. By measure of wRC+, the Rays’ catchers were 33% worse than average at the plate. Only the Marlins and White Sox received less-productive output from the position. Tampa Bay catchers combined for a disastrous .194/.272/.291 slash on the season, though Rortvedt’s knack for drawing walks and strong glovework at least made things slightly more palatable.

Even if Jansen simply matches last year’s lackluster output, it’d be an offensive upgrade for the Rays. If he can recapture a portion of his 2021-23 form, it could be a massive improvement to the lineup. Defensively, he’s probably a step down, though there’s reason to hope for improvement in 2025. Jansen has typically rated as a solid but not elite defender. Statcast gave him plus grades for blocking pitches in the dirt and slightly below-average framing marks last year. Jansen has a career 20% caught-stealing rate but sits just over 13% in the past two seasons. However, he’s fractured the middle finger and the wrist in his throwing hand over those two seasons, either of which could have a subsequent impact on his throwing; Jansen’s average 1.99 second pop time is still right in line with where it sat in 2022 (1.98 seconds).

Jansen’s signing should push the Rays’ payroll into the $86MM range. That number could still change dramatically, however, as the Rays have received trade interest in veterans like Jeffrey Springs ($10.5MM in 2024), Yandy Diaz ($10MM), Pete Fairbanks ($3.666MM) and Zack Littell (projected $4.8MM) — among others. It’s not clear just how willing ownership is to spend in the wake of the hurricane damage that ruined Tropicana Field’s roof and forced the Rays to relocate to Tampa’s Steinbrenner Field (home of the Yankees’ Class-A affiliate). The Jansen deal, however, at least signals a willingness to spend modestly, even if the eventual plan is to balance things out by trading other veterans for young, controllable (and cheaper) talent.

Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times first reported the Rays and Jansen were nearing a deal. Ken Rosenthal and Sahadev Sharma of the Athletic reported that it would be a one-year contract. Robert Murray of FanSided reported the $8.5MM guarantee, as well as Jansen’s decision to decline multi-year offers. Topkin was first with the mutual option and salary breakdown.

Juan Soto’s Hall Of Fame Track

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Juan Soto’s free agency was the offseason’s biggest storyline for good reason. It concluded Sunday evening with a colossal 15-year, $765MM deal with the Mets, which is now official. Soto brings with him a résumé that’ll almost certainly send him to Cooperstown in a couple decades.

Soto wouldn’t be a Hall of Famer if he retired tomorrow. He doesn’t have the requisite 10 seasons of major league action for consideration and he obviously hasn’t accrued HOF-caliber counting stats in just seven years. Yet he’s about as much of a lock for future induction as a player can possibly get by the time he turns 26.

The accolades are already beginning to stack up. Soto has yet to win an MVP award, but he’s finished in the top 10 in five of his six full seasons. He has a trio of top five placements. He’s been named to the All-Star Game four years running and would’ve gotten a fifth nod had the Midsummer Classic been played in 2020. Soto carries an ongoing streak of five consecutive Silver Slugger awards.

The statistical profile is eye-popping. Through his first 936 career games, Soto is a .285/.421/.532 hitter. The .953 OPS puts him in rarified air. Soto is tied with Todd Helton for 23rd on the career OPS leaderboard. That was enough to get Helton, who played his home games at Coors Field at a time when offense was much higher around the league, into Cooperstown. Helton had a career 133 OPS+ after adjusting for the park and league setting. Soto is rocking a 160 OPS+ despite the identical raw slash line.

Players with this kind of rate production are locks for the Hall of Fame unless they taint their case with performance-enhancing drug ties. 19 of the top 25 hitters in career OPS are Hall of Famers. Aaron Judge, Mike Trout and Soto are still playing. The only retired hitters among that group who aren’t in Cooperstown: Barry Bonds, Manny Ramirez and Mark McGwire. Needless to say, they’re not excluded because their numbers weren’t good enough.

A .953 OPS is well above the general bar for induction. Most players who are in the top 100 are Hall of Famers. Landing among the top 75 makes a hitter a near-lock (barring PED connections). Even if Soto lost .050 points of OPS over the rest of his career — which seems unlikely — he’d still be above the likes of Miguel Cabrera, Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts.

Any kind of precipitous drop shouldn’t happen soon. There are plenty of Hall of Famers whose production plummeted in the final three to five seasons of their careers. Even if Soto doesn’t avoid that fate, the short-term numbers are more likely to continue climbing than fall. He’s arguably at the beginning of his prime. This past season was probably the best full season of his career. He topped 40 homers for the first time, finished one RBI off his career high, and set a new best with 7.9 wins above replacement (bWAR). Soto’s rate stats were unquestionably better in the shortened 2020 season, but this was as effective as he’s been over any 162-game schedule.

Youth was one of the biggest selling points in his record-setting free agent trip. Very few hitters have been this productive through their mid-20s. Soto has 201 career homers, tied for seventh all time through a player’s age-25 season. He’s 15th in runs batted in through the same age. Among hitters with at least 2000 plate appearances before their 26th birthday, Soto is 12th in on-base percentage. Of the 11 players above him, only Frank Thomas has played in the last 50 years. This kind of plate discipline so early in a hitter’s career is truly generational.

Red Sox Acquire Garrett Crochet

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The long-awaited Garrett Crochet trade is finally here. The lefty will be swapping his White Sox for Red Sox, according to announcements from both clubs. Four prospects are going the other way: catcher Kyle Teel, outfielder Braden Montgomery, infielder Chase Meidroth and right-hander Wikelman Gonzalez.

Crochet, 25, was the eleventh overall pick in the 2020 draft and made his big league debut that same season with a six-inning cup of coffee. He was a key piece of the White Sox bullpen in 2021 with a 2.82 ERA and 2.80 FIP in 54 1/3 innings of work but missed the entire 2022 season and a portion of the 2023 campaign after undergoing Tommy John surgery. The lefty ultimately made just 13 appearances in the majors last year and struggled in 12 2/3 innings while walking more batters than he struck out during that time.

When the White Sox made the decision to not only move Crochet into the rotation but name him the club’s Opening Day starter back in March, the news came as something of a shock given his lengthy injury history. The move proved to be a fateful one, however, as Crochet went on to turn in a dominant season for Chicago to emerge as the club’s lone bright spot amid a brutal 121-loss season. Crochet pitched 146 innings across 32 starts for the White Sox this year, and in doing so posted a 3.58 ERA (115 ERA+) with a phenomenal 2.69 FIP. Among starters with at least 100 innings of work in 2024, Crochet led the sport in strikeout rate (35.1%) and SIERA (2.53) while also posting an elite 5.5% walk rate and a solid 45.1% groundball rate.

Those unmatched peripheral numbers paint a picture of Crochet as among the game’s very best starters on a rate basis, offering a rare combination of command and top-end velocity from the left side. That’s not to say Crochet comes completely without concerns, of course. He was quite prone to giving up hard contact with the White Sox this year, as evidenced by 14.4% of his fly balls leaving the yard for home runs and a 9.2% barrel rate that was in the bottom 15 among all MLB starters with at least 140 innings this year. While that proclivity towards lackluster batted ball results can be more than made up for with Crochet’s elite strikeout-to-walk ratios, the lefty’s lack of track record due to a substantial injury history is also sure to raise some eyebrows. His 146 innings of work this year represents the first time he’s thrown more than 65 innings in a season dating back to his college days in the SEC, and he threw even 90 pitches in just nine of his 32 starts this year.

Of course, it’s hardly a surprise that Crochet’s workload was closely managed given he more than doubled his previous career high for innings in 2024. Barring injury, it’s easy to imagine the Red Sox being able to stretch him out for larger workloads over the course of his two remaining seasons of team control, and perhaps even for as soon as the 2025 campaign. Ultimately, Crochet profiles as one of the most impactful arms in the entire sport on a per-inning basis, and that was clearly enough for a Red Sox club that has been on the hunt for an ace all winter to pull the triggers regardless of durability concerns.

The upside to Crochet’s limitations in previous seasons is that it has tamped down his earning power to this point in his career. He has accrued over four years of major league service time but since so much of that was spent either on the injured list or in the bullpen, he hasn’t been able to push his salary up terribly high. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for just $2.9MM next year. He will be due another raise in 2026 before his slated trip to free agency but probably won’t even be able to get to eight-figure territory due to his modest starting point. Given the massive prices being paid for free agent starters this winter, Crochet’s situation gave him a huge amount of trade value.

In return for two years of Crochet’s services, Boston is giving up a massive prospect haul. Teel is the clear headliner, ranked by Baseball America as the #25 prospect in the sport and Boston’s third-best prospect behind only Roman Anthony and Kristian Campbell, both of whom reports have suggested the club regards as untouchable. A left-handed hitting catcher, Teel was the 14th overall pick in the 2023 draft and hit an excellent .299/.390/.462 in 84 games at the Double-A level this year before earning a promotion to Triple-A. The youngster rates as a solid defender behind the plate who is expected to have no issues sticking behind the plate, and with his 23rd birthday coming up in February it’s not hard to imagine him taking over as the everyday catcher for the White Sox in Chicago sometime in 2025.

In addition to Teel, the Red Sox are also dealing 2024 first rounder Braden Montgomery. The 12th overall pick in this year’s draft, Montgomery is a switch-hitting outfielder who has yet to make his pro debut but slashed .322/.454/.733 in 295 trips to the plate for Texas A&M this year. BA ranks Montgomery as the #59 prospect in baseball while MLB Pipeline ranks him as the #54 prospect in the sport, noting that he offers plus power and double-plus arm strength that should make him a good fit for right field. Meidroth and Gonzalez, meanwhile, are not considered top-100 prospects in the sport but are nonetheless well-regarded within Boston’s system. Per Pipeline, they ranked as Boston’s #11 and #14 prospects prior to the trade.

Meidroth was the club’s fourth-rounder in the 2022 draft and looked good in 122 games at Triple-A this year with a .293/.437/.401 slash line. The 23-year-old offers little power and profiles best as a second baseman in the majors but also has experience at third base and shortstop. Like Teel, he could impact the White Sox as soon as this year. Gonzalez, meanwhile, signed with the Red Sox out of Venezuela and made his pro debut back in 2019. He split his time between the rotation and bullpen at the Double-A level in 2024, posting a 4.73 ERA in 83 2/3 innings of work. His solid 25.6% strikeout rate at the level was overshadowed by a 12.8% walk rate. It’s possible Gonzalez could make an impact at the big league level out of the bullpen in the near-term, but given Chicago’s lengthy timeline for a return to contention it would hardly be a surprise to see the club opt to develop the 22-year-old carefully with an eye towards a future in the big league rotation.

With Crochet now in the fold, the Red Sox have checked the biggest box off of their offseason to-do list by adding a premium talent to the front of their rotation. What’s unclear, however, is the club’s next steps. Rumors percolated earlier this winter that the club may pursue multiple top-level pitching additions, and given the fact that the club reportedly prepared a formal offer for top free agent starter Corbin Burnes last night such an addition can’t necessarily be ruled out. A lower-level addition to supplement the rotation appears more likely at this point, however, given recent reporting expressing skepticism regarding Boston’s odds of landing Burnes. A reunion with Nick Pivetta or a pursuit of Walker Buehler have been floated as possible alternative free agent targets for the Red Sox and could allow the club to further build out depth for a rotation that currently projects to see Crochet joined by Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, and Lucas Giolito next year.

Aside from bolstering the rotation, the Red Sox still figure to explore the market for a right-handed addition to their lineup. Teoscar Hernandez and Alex Bregman have both received buzz as potential targets for Boston, with Hernandez theoretically joining a crowded outfield mix as a replacement for Tyler O’Neill while Bregman would slot into the club’s lineup as the everyday second baseman barring a decision to move Rafael Devers off third base. Now that Teel is headed for Chicago, bolstering the club’s depth behind the plate seems likely and finding a back-up such as James McCann to pair with Connor Wong could be a priority for the club.

Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe (X link) first reported that the Red Sox were about to acquire Crochet with Teel going the other way. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (X link) first reported the other names in the deal.

Mets Sign Juan Soto

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Juan Soto is officially a New York Met. The team announced the signing on Wednesday evening after the star outfielder passed his physical. He’ll be introduced in a press conference tomorrow at Citi Field. Soto shattered contract records as the Winter Meetings began on Sunday evening, agreeing to a stunning 15-year, $765MM deal. Soto would be able to opt out of the deal after the 2029 season, though the Mets can prevent that by triggering an escalator that raises his salaries by $4MM annually from 2030-39. If they do so, he’d make at least $805MM over the next decade and a half.

Soto receives a whopping $75MM signing bonus. That’ll be followed by successive $46.875MM salaries for the first two seasons. He’ll make $42.5MM in 2027 before the salaries jump back to $46.875MM for 2028-29. The deal calls for $46MM annually for the final ten years. After the 2029 season, the Mets will need to decide whether to push Soto’s salaries to $50MM per season. If they decline, he could opt out of the remaining decade and $460MM. Soto also gets a full no-trade clause and escalators based on his MVP finishes.

Brokered by the Boras Corporation, the 26-year-old Soto’s deal is the largest contract in the history of professional sports, blowing away not only the $461MM net present value of the deal Shohei Ohtani landed with the Dodgers last winter but even the $700MM sticker price Ohtani signed for before accounting for that deal’s record-breaking deferrals. Soto’s $51MM average annual value eclipses the record for MLB players, which was previously held by Ohtani, by a significant margin as well.

Soto is the game’s first true $500MM player, $600MM player, $700MM player, and $50MM-per-year player, all in one epic contract.  The deal calls to mind Boras’ ten-year, $252MM contract with the Rangers for Alex Rodriguez 24 years ago, announced at the Winter Meetings at the same Anatole Hotel in Dallas this one figures to be.

The Mets weren’t the only team willing to go to record-setting lengths to land Soto, as Heyman reports the Yankees’ final bid for the slugger clocked in at $760MM over 16 years. MassLive’s Sean McAdam, meanwhile, reports that the Red Sox offered Soto $700MM over 15 years. Each of those deals would have shattered all expectations entering the offseason; MLBTR predicted a 13 year, $600MM contract for Soto as part of our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list.

The Soto bidding was long believed to be the first true litmus test on how Mets owner Steve Cohen, the wealthiest in the sport, would proceed in a bidding war for a must-have player. The sale from the Wilpon family to Cohen was finalized just over four years ago, and while we’ve seen the Mets spend aggressively along the way, they’ve yet to truly flex their full financial might in this manner. The Mets did not pursue Aaron Judge when he was a free agent two offseasons ago, nor did they seriously pursue Ohtani last winter. They were involved in Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s market, reportedly even offering the same $325MM guarantee he received in Los Angeles, but the West Coast Dodgers were typically perceived to have a geographic advantage there.

With regard to Soto, the stage was set for a Yankees-Mets bidding war — with presumptive interest from other teams — the minute Soto was traded from San Diego to the Bronx last December. In the end, the outcome that Mets fans have pined for since Cohen bought the club and that Yankees have feared since Soto hit the market proved true: Cohen refused to be denied, putting forth an offer that even the most aggressive prognosticators wouldn’t have envisioned entering the offseason.

Cohen’s purchase of the Mets created enough unease among other owners that during the last wave of collective bargaining negotiations, a fourth tier of penalization was added to the luxury tax setup. Teams exceeding the tax threshold by more than $60MM would be taxed at an 80% rate in year one, a 90% rate if exceeding that mark for a second straight season and a whopping 110% rate for a third straight offense. Colloquially referred to as the “Cohen Tax,” that penalty was ultimately more of a speed bump than a true roadblock for the Mets. They’ll be a third-time payor in 2025 — and presumably for years to come thereafter, thanks largely to this contract.

It’s not quite as basic as saying Soto’s contract itself will be taxed at 110% (that’d be a $56.1MM annual hit), but he’ll naturally thrust the Mets into the Cohen Tax threshold on a near annual basis, assuming the Mets surround him with other high-end players. They’re already paying Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo annual salaries of $34.1MM and $20.5MM, respectively, through at least 2030. RosterResouce projects that the Mets’ luxury obligations now sit just north of $251MM.

That’s “only” $10MM over the $241MM threshold, but with Soto now in the fold there’s no reason to expect they’ll let up. The club still seems likely to make a corner infield addition, whether that be a reunion with Pete Alonso or perhaps the addition of a third baseman who could allow Vientos to move off of the hot corner going forward. Additionally, the Mets are known to be in the market for at least one more starting pitcher after previously adding Clay Holmes and Frankie Montas to their rotation alongside incumbent starters Kodai Senga and David Peterson. It also wouldn’t be a surprise to see the club target relief help to supplement a bullpen that saw a number of key pieces including Phil Maton, Drew Smith, and Brooks Raley depart for free agency.

The Mets will have plenty of resources with which to make those additions. Even after Soto’s record-breaking deal, they’re still roughly $95MM away from last year’s $336MM payroll, and the aforementioned $251MM luxury ledger is more than $100MM shy of last year’s $358MM figure. Historic as the Soto agreement is, it’s more of a launching point than a capstone with regard to what will be a precedent-shattering offseason under Cohen and president of baseball operations David Stearns.

Soto’s free agency has been one of the most anticipated in MLB history. The phenom has seemingly been destined for a record-breaking deal ever since he declined a $440MM extension offer from the Nationals during the 2022 season. Given the $54MM Soto went on to earn in his last two arbitration years, the Nationals’ offer ultimately equated to $386MM for 13 free agent years, a figure that Soto nearly doubled tonight. Soto’s prescient decision on the Nationals’ offer prompted a trade to the Padres. Already a career 152 wRC+ hitter entering the 2021 season, he’s been even better since then with a .279/.423/.520 slash line that’s been good for a 161 wRC+.

The massive deal secured the Mets one of the most talented hitters in the sport. Soto had a platform season for the ages in 2024 after being traded from the Padres to the Yankees, slashing .288/.419/.569 (180 wRC+) in 157 games while belting 41 homers and walking (18.1%) more than he struck out (16.7%). In an era of increased strikeout rates, it’s not just Soto’s elite power but his otherworldly plate discipline that causes him to stick out from the crowd. He’s recorded more unintentional walks than strikeouts in each of the past five seasons and has led the majors in unintentional walks three times throughout his career.

Soto’s 769 career unintentional walks land him the No. 11 spot on the active leaderboard after just seven seasons in the majors. That sensational batting eye figures to allow Soto to age much better than players who get to their value through elite speed and defense, which surely helped make the Mets (and other interested clubs) more willing to shatter records in order to land Soto’s services.  Soto is so good at drawing walks that he has gained notoriety for his manner of taking a pitch, which sometimes prompts the Soto Shuffle.

It’s important to note that Soto made his MLB debut back in 2018 at just 19 years of age, allowing him to reach free agency at the rare age of 26. The best MLB superstars are occasionally paid through the age of 40, which in Soto’s case means the longest contract in MLB history at 15 years. Soto’s youth, plus his Hall of Fame track, make this deal possible.

Soto has accumulated 36.4 Baseball-Reference WAR through the age of 25, which ranks 17th all-time. Mike Trout is the only other active player on that list. Of the 15 others, 12 are in the Hall of Fame, another is a lock to get there in Albert Pujols, and Alex Rodriguez would be in if not for steroid usage. The only reason Soto isn’t ranked higher is his below-average outfield defense, though that was roundly ignored by his free agent suitors given the $700MM+ offers.

One thing Soto has that his Hall of Fame peers did not (aside from free agency rights, of course) is Statcast. Modern-day GMs highly value Statcast metrics demonstrating how hard a player hits the ball, and Soto’s numbers regularly reside in the 99th percentile. It’s key evidence that Soto’s elite offense is sustainable for many years, even if his glovework is less desirable.

It also bears mentioning that the narrative of Soto being a poor defender has become somewhat overstated by his detractors. There’s no getting around the fact that he is a below-average defender on the whole, but he’s not yet reached the point where he’s an unmitigated liability in the outfield — nor do we know when or if he’ll get there. Defensive metrics can vary heavily on a year-to-year basis, but Soto has only had one truly dismal season in the eyes of Statcast and Defensive Runs Saved. And looking at his seven big league seasons on the whole, Soto has been dinged for -15 DRS and -24 Outs Above Average.

On a yearly basis, he’s been somewhere in the range of -2 DRS and -3 OAA. He’s not likely to make any sizable gains, but he ought to be able to play a passable right field for the next several years. He may be lacking in range and doesn’t top the charts in terms of raw arm strength by any means, but Soto’s arm is quite accurate. Over the past two seasons, only Lane Thomas and Ian Happ have more outfield assists. Statcast ranked his throwing value in the 90th percentile of MLB outfielders. Soto might eventually require a move away from the outfield, but he could potentially have a stop at first base before eventually moving to a DH role. Ultimately, if teams thought his defense was as problematic as his most strident critics typically portray it to be, Soto probably wouldn’t have commanded a contract of this sheer magnitude.

Soto is set to enter the prime of his already illustrious career in a Mets uniform. He’ll patrol right field and pair with Lindor to create a frightening one-two punch that should offer the Mets a reasonable facsimile of the unbelievable partnership of Soto and Judge, which helped to carry the Yankees from an 82-80 showing in 2023 to a 94-win campaign and an AL pennant this past season. The Mets, for their part, were far closer to being a top team even before adding Soto; their 2024 season saw the club win 89 games and fight their way into the NLCS, where they fell to the eventual World Champion Dodgers in six games. In addition to Lindor, Soto will be protected in the lineup by the presence of fellow corner outfielder Brandon Nimmo and an intriguing group of youngsters like Mark Vientos and Francisco Alvarez. A reunion with Alonso remains possible, and the Mets will surely explore every avenue of the trade and free agent markets as they look to further augment the lineup.

Now that the load-bearing free agent of the offseason has finally been dislodged, a flurry of activity around the league is expected throughout the Winter Meetings in Dallas this week as free agents and trade candidates alike who had been slowed by Soto’s presence may begin to move. Fellow free agent corner outfielders Teoscar Hernandez and Anthony Santander figure to see their markets pick up in a big way now that the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, and Blue Jays are set to explore their various contingency plans for failing to land Soto.

Other high-priced free agents such as Max Fried, Corbin Burnes, and Alex Bregman could similarly see increased movement with the winter’s top dog no longer in the picture. They’ve all been linked to the Jays, Yankees and Red Sox — to varying extents. Certain high-priced pieces available on the trade market like Cody Bellinger and Nolan Arenado could start seeing additional action in the coming days. Bellinger specifically saw his potential market inextricably linked to the Soto bidding.

The Yankees, in particular, figure to be aggressive after coming up short. They’ve long been expected to be aggressive in their search for impact talent to replace Soto’s production in the event they came up short in a Subway Series bidding war. Hernandez, Bellinger, Burnes and Fried are all among the names who have come up in connection to the Bronx in recent weeks who seem more plausible as targets now that Soto has departed for Queens.

It could be years before we see another free-agent bidding of this nature — possibly decades, if the gap between Alex Rodriguez and Soto is representative of anything. But while the Soto talks have dominated the early stages of the 2024-25 offseason, his eventual decision isn’t a sign of things winding down but rather a catalyst to truly unleash the full scope of offseason drama. The first and most significant domino has fallen, but the offseason is just getting started.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the Mets were signing Soto to a 15-year, $765MM deal. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported that the deal did not contain deferred money and could push beyond $800MM with escalators. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal was first to report the $75MM signing bonus. Joel Sherman of the New York Post was first to report the opt-out, while ESPN’s Jorge Castillo reported the opt-out override. Tim Healey of Newsday was first with the no-trade protection. Heyman reported the salary breakdown.

Red Sox Remain In Rotation Market Following Crochet Deal

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The Red Sox landed the offseason’s top rotation trade candidate this afternoon. Even after acquiring Garrett Crochet from the White Sox for a four-prospect package, Boston is on the hunt for starting pitching.

Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow told reporters that the Sox remained in the rotation market after the Crochet acquisition (Bluesky link via Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe). The Globe’s Alex Speier reports (on X) that Boston is still engaged on Corbin Burnes as well as mid-tier rotation targets.

That could evidently take the form of either a free agent move or a trade. Jon Morosi of the MLB Network tweets that the Sox are still having discussions with the Mariners regarding their starting pitching. Adam Jude and Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reported on Monday that Seattle rebuffed interest in a framework that would’ve sent one of their young starters to the Sox for first baseman Triston Casas. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has spoken repeatedly of the organization’s reluctance to even consider moving George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo or Bryce Miller.

Luis Castillo could be a different story. The Mariners are reportedly open to discussing Castillo, whom they owe $68.25MM over the next three seasons. The deal also has a vesting option for 2028. According to Mark Feinsand and Daniel Kramer of MLB.com, there’s a belief within the industry that the righty is available (X link). There should be trade value, as Castillo’s deal aligns with what Luis Severino and Nathan Eovaldi have landed on three-year free agent deals. Yet Castillo isn’t as appealing as the M’s young core of much more affordable starters. That price tag surely plays into the M’s willingness to listen to offers, as they’re reportedly working with around $15-20MM in payroll room and could use multiple hitters.

It’s unlikely that the Mariners would trade Castillo strictly for prospects. They’d presumably need an MLB hitter to anchor the return. Casas might be too big an ask if they’re not sending one of their younger arms to Boston. Outfielder Wilyer Abreu is another potential Red Sox trade candidate, though the M’s have less need for an outfielder than they do for an impact bat in the corner infield like Casas.

Whether anything will come of the Sox’s pursuits remains to be seen. At the very least, it’s clear Breslow and his front office aren’t fully satisfied with a rotation comprising Crochet, Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford and Lucas Giolito. They gave up a good package of young talent to get Crochet, but he’s eminently affordable from a financial perspective. Boston should have the flexibility to continue identifying free agent targets or take on a notable salary in trade.

Rangers Acquire Jake Burger

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10:15am: Both clubs announced the deal today.

12:21am: The Rangers and Marlins have reportedly agreed to a deal that’ll send corner infielder Jake Burger to Texas for a trio of prospects. Miami receives infielders Max Acosta and Echedry Vargas as well as pitching prospect Brayan Mendoza.

Burger adds an affordable bat to deepen the Texas lineup. The Rangers surprisingly struggled to produce offense this year. Texas had a .238/.305/.380 team batting line that slotted in the bottom third of the league. They finished 18th in scoring. It was a far cry from the 2023 lineup that mashed its way to a championship.

The 28-year-old Burger can step into the middle of the order. He popped 29 home runs with a .250/.306/.460 slash line over 579 plate appearances. The former first-round pick combined for 34 longballs between the White Sox and Marlins in 2023. His 63 homers over the past two seasons ties him with José Ramírez and Corey Seager for 15th in MLB.

Burger, a righty hitter, is more of a one-dimensional slugger than many of his peers at the top of the home run leaderboard. He’s a .250/.305/.488 hitter over the last two years. Burger strikes out a higher than average rate and doesn’t draw many walks, but he has gotten to his huge power against pitchers of either handedness. He’s a career .244/.298/.496 hitter against lefty pitching and carries a .253/.308/.478 slash versus right-handers.

A third baseman for most of his career, Burger divided his time fairly evenly between the infield corners in 2024. He’s a poor defender at the hot corner, where his 6’2″, 230-pound frame limits his mobility. Burger posted roughly average defensive marks at first base in nearly 500 innings. While he doesn’t project as the starter at either position in Arlington, he’s insurance at both spots. Third baseman Josh Jung has battled a litany of injuries. Nathaniel Lowe has a strong durability track record, but he’s not guaranteed to stick on the roster all year. The Rangers could think about trading Lowe, who is projected for a hefty $10.7MM arbitration salary, if they’re working with a tight budget after committing to a $25MM annual salary to retain Nathan Eovaldi.

If they hold Lowe, Burger would project as the top option at designated hitter. That’d allow the Rangers to keep Wyatt Langford in left field, while Evan Carter could slide to center field and push Leody Taveras to the bench. That’s seemingly a goal for GM Chris Young and his staff. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News wrote on Tuesday evening that Texas had been in contact with free agent DH Joc Pederson. That’s a far less likely fit now that Burger is in the fold.

Burger is under team control for four seasons. He finished five days shy of the cutoff to qualify for early arbitration as a Super Two player. He’ll be paid close to the league minimum for one more season before getting his first salary of significance next offseason. That’s of clear appeal to a Texas team that has a projected luxury tax number around $219MM (courtesy of RosterResource), a little more than $20MM shy of the base threshold. With a reported desire to avoid the tax and multiple holes in the bullpen they still need to address, Burger’s affordability is a big plus.

From Miami’s perspective, it’s another move to shape the roster more to the liking of second-year baseball operations leader Peter Bendix. Former general manager Kim Ng made the move to acquire Burger at the ’23 deadline. It’s possible Bendix was never enamored with the profile, as he comes from a Rays front office that placed a lot of emphasis on infield defense and versatility.

Acosta, 22, steps onto Miami’s 40-man roster. Texas selected his contract last month to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. The Venezuelan-born infielder hit .288/.353/.425 with eight homers over 434 plate appearances at Double-A Frisco. He’s an advanced contact hitter with minimal power. Acosta has experience at both middle infield positions and could be a utility option in the near future.

Vargas, who turns 20 in February, spent the entire season at Low-A Down East. He popped 14 homers and stole 29 bases in 97 games with a .276/.321/.454 slash line. Vargas has a very aggressive plate approach but there’s a fair amount of upside in the power-speed combination for a player who has played shortstop thus far in his career.

Mendoza, a 6’0″ lefty from Venezuela, had a nice year in the low minors. The 20-year-old combined for a 2.32 earned run average through 101 innings. He struck out 26.3% of batters faced while limiting his walks to a 6.4% clip. While Mendoza hasn’t gotten much public prospect fanfare, he has the look of a potential pichability lefty.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported the Rangers were acquiring Burger for three prospects. Robert Murray of FanSided was first with Acsota’s inclusion. Christina De Nicola of MLB.com had the Vargas element, while Alden González of ESPN was first on Mendoza. Image courtesy of Imagn.

Nolan Arenado Willing To Approve Trades To Six Teams

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As Nolan Arenado’s trade market continues to percolate, the no-trade clause in the third baseman’s contract puts Arenado and his camp in the driver’s seat when it comes to determining whether or not he’ll leave the Cardinals.  MLB.com’s John Denton reports that Arenado would okay a deal to any of the Angels, Dodgers, Padres, Phillies, Mets, or Red Sox.  It isn’t known if these are the only six clubs on what Denton describes as Arenado’s “wish list,” or if Arenado could be amenable to deals to any other clubs in the right circumstances.

Agent Joel Wolfe discussed his client’s situation with reporters (including Denton, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat, and Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch) today at the Winter Meetings, and implied that Arenado’s list of potential teams is “bigger than you would think.”  The chief factor in Arenado’s decision-making is finding “a team that he thinks is going to win now and consistently for the remainder of his career.  He wants a team that has the throttle down….that he believes he can jump right in and they’re going to win right now.”

This all being said, Wolfe noted that Arenado is “not going to go just to go,” or “approve and move his family and go play somewhere that would…sidestepping” into a situation no better than his current spot in St. Louis.  Wolfe said he and Arenado have been in regular dialogue with Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak, with Mozeliak floating some teams that have already been dismissed as “hard no’s of where he’d prefer not to go.”

Earlier reports indicated that three unknown “mid-market” clubs also had interest in Arenado’s services, so these could be some of the teams Arenado has already vetoed since the six teams on his list are bigger spenders.  The Yankees had also been linked to Arenado and Goold reports that the Cardinals were in touch with the Bronx Bombers about the third baseman.  As Jones notes, the Yankees seem like a fit on paper given their need at third base and the presence of Arenado’s good friend and old Rockies teammates DJ LeMahieu, but it remains to be seen if the Yankees are still on Arenado’s radar.

New York’s other team could also have an opening at the hot corner depending on how the Mets choose to deploy Mark Vientos, or whether or not the Mets re-sign Pete Alonso or add another big first base bat.  The Phillies likewise have an incumbent third baseman in Alec Bohm, but Bohm’s name has been mentioned in several trade rumors as one of the big-league roster pieces Philadelphia is reportedly open to moving to address other needs.

The Red Sox and Padres were more speculatively linked as suitors a few weeks ago, and Goold reports that St. Louis has already been in contact with these two clubs about Arenado.  Boston’s interest could hinge on whether or not they’d move Rafael Devers off third base, while Arenado’s own apparent willingness to leave his longtime third-base position might be related to his interest in joining the Padres (as San Diego already has a star third baseman in Manny Machado).

Wolfe addressed his client’s offer of a position change as a way to get in front of any awkward questions from a team’s end on the subject.  “The way he phrased it, ‘I’ll play first,’ sometimes [teams] don’t want to ask a player to do that,” Wolfe said.  “So he wanted to offer it and say, ‘I’m happy to play first, I can move around and play third.’ Nolan was like, ‘I’ll play shortstop, I’ll do whatever, but I’m not insulted to go play first, and I can win a Gold Glove over there, if that’s what it takes.’ ”

Since Arenado is from Southern California, it shouldn’t be ignored that the Padres, Dodgers, and Angels are all on his approval list, though Wolfe said Arenado has no geographic preference about his next destination.  It could be argued that the Angels might be on Arenado’s list solely due to location, as a team coming off nine straight losing seasons hardly seems to match Arenado’s preference for a team ready to win.

A trade to the Dodgers seems off the table, as The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya and Katie Woo hear from sources that “a deal for Arenado is not a possibility the organization has considered.”  L.A. general manager Brandon Gomes made a point of saying Monday that Max Muncy was going to remain as the team’s regular third baseman, and a position switch wouldn’t much help Arenado find a spot amidst the crowded Dodgers infield.

It remains to be seen if any of Arenado’s preferred teams may or may not want to bring the eight-time All-Star into the fold, though even in the event of mutual interest, there’s also the matter of working out a trade that is also acceptable to the Cardinals.  Other complications include Arenado’s age (he turns 34 in April), his declining power over the last two seasons, and the $74MM ($10MM covered by the Rockies) in salary owed over the remaining three years of his contract.

Athletics Sign Luis Severino

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TODAY: Jon Heyman of the New York Post (via Bluesky) has the breakdown of Severino’s contract.  The $10MM signing bonus is broken up at $5MM next month and $5MM in January 2026.  The righty will earn $15MM this season and $20MM in 2026, so his player option for the 2027 season is worth $22MM.  Severino will also get a $500K assignment bonus in the event of a trade.

DECEMBER 6: The A’s are ready to spend some cash, announcing Friday that they’ve signed free agent righty Luis Severino to a three-year deal — the third year of which is a player option. Severino, a client of Klutch Sports, will reportedly be guaranteed $67MM, to be paid out in the form of a $10MM signing bonus and $57MM in salary over the three seasons. He can opt out of the contract after year two and become a free agent once again in the 2026-27 offseason.

It’ll register as a shock for many to see the nomadic A’s, who will play next year in West Sacramento’s Sutter Health Park (home to the Giants’ Triple-A affiliate), land a notable free agent with a hefty multi-year deal. They’re in the process of relocating to Las Vegas and have been aggressively pursuing free agents in an effort to boost a payroll that entered the offseason without a single contract on the books in 2025. Some free agents — Walker Buehler among them — have entirely dismissed the notion of playing in a minor league facility. Still, with a reported target payroll in the $100MM range, there’s long been a possibility for the A’s to be a surprise player in free agency. MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald explored just such a possibility at length last month.

The general thinking has been that the A’s will need to overpay in order to pursue top-end free agents this winter. The terms of Severino’s contract indeed suggest a clear willingness to spend well beyond market expectations in order to lure free agents to their new home. Severino’s deal includes both a larger guarantee than most anticipated and an opt-out opportunity. Because he rejected a qualifying offer from the Mets, Severino will cost the A’s their third-highest pick in next year’s draft. He’ll also net the Mets a compensatory pick, albeit only between the fourth and fifth rounds because of their status as a luxury tax payor.

The $100MM target payroll likely stems from the Athletics’ status as a revenue-sharing recipient. The franchise was stripped of its revenue-sharing benefits last decade after failing to sufficiently utilize those funds to improve the on-field product, as is a stipulated requirement. The 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement restored the A’s as a revenue-sharing recipient, and they’ve since spent modestly in free agency to keep payroll at least in step with the other lowest-spending clubs in the league. The deal with Severino signals a willingness to spend a bit beyond that point. It is, incredibly, the largest contract in franchise history, nominally surpassing the six-year, $66MM contract extension signed by third baseman Eric Chavez more than two decades ago.

[Related: The Largest Contract In Franchise History For Each MLB Team]

Severino, 31, will immediately jump to the top of the A’s rotation. He’s likely ticketed for their Opening Day start, barring another notable acquisition via free agency or trade. He’ll lead a staff that currently projects to also include JP Sears, Mitch Spence and Joey Estes. The A’s have a variety of in-house candidates for the fifth spot, though the Severino deal rather obviously opens the door for GM David Forst to sign/trade for another starter of note to further solidify the bunch.

Severino, of course, looked the part of a budding ace for the Yankees in 2017-18 when he posted 384 2/3 innings with a 3.18 ERA, 28.8% strikeout rate, 6.2% walk rate and 45.8% grounder rate in his age-23 and age-24 seasons. The flamethrowing righty averaged better than 97 mph on his heater, recorded a hefty 12.7% swinging-strike rate and generally had the makings of a star. The Yankees agreed, signing him to a four-year, $40MM extension with an option for a fifth season.

That deal bought out all of Severino’s arbitration years and his first free-agent season. At the time, some thought a pitcher with his upside and demonstrated excellence to date was perhaps selling himself short. In the long run, it worked out wonderfully, as injuries frequently kept Severino off the field and rendered him a shell of his former self when healthy enough to take the mound. From 2019-23, Severino managed only 209 1/3 innings in the majors, dealing with multiple lat strains and requiring Tommy John surgery along the way. His 2023 campaign included 89 1/3 frames with a 6.65 ERA.

The 2024 season marked a resurgence for Severino, who inked a one-year, $13MM deal with the Mets on the heels of that injury-plagued finish to his Yankees tenure. The right-hander’s 182 innings nearly matched his total over the five prior calendar years. He logged a 3.91 ERA with a below-average but passable 21.2% strikeout rate and a strong 7.6% walk rate. His 46% ground-ball rate, while not elite, was comfortably north of league average.

At the same time, Severino simply wasn’t the dominant force he was earlier in his career. His average fastball with the Mets was about 1.5 mph off from its peak levels. His 9.4% swinging-strike rate was decidedly below-average — a near mirror-image of his 9.1% mark in that disastrous 2023 season and nowhere close to his career-best 13.3% rate. Opponents made contact on just 81.9% of Severino’s pitches within the strike zone in 2017-18 — league-average was 84.7% — but did so at a whopping 88.2% clip in 2024 (when the league average was 85.2%).

When the Mets signed Severino to his one-year deal, it had the makings of an upside play on a former front-of-the-rotation arm. Last year’s rebound showed that he was healthy but also seemed to further support the notion that his prior ace-caliber form is in the rearview mirror. Severino now has the feel of a third or fourth starter, making his $22.333MM annual salary and an opt-out rather jarring.

Many pundits thought Severino could have — and should have — accepted the Mets’ $21.05MM qualifying offer; he and his agents deserve credit for not simply eclipsing that guarantee in notable fashion but surpassing that number on an annual basis over a lengthy deal that affords him another bite at free agency in the 2026-27 offseason. The contract tops recent guarantees for Chris Bassitt, who was seen as a steady and dependable No. 2-3 arm, and Yusei Kikuchi, whose torrid finish with the Astros made him one of the most sought-after pitchers on this offseason’s market. Both pitchers signed for $63MM over the same three-year term.

For the A’s, a commitment this weighty was likely deemed a necessity to land a mid-rotation arm whose velocity and ground-ball tendencies perhaps create some hope that he can still eke out some incremental improvements over his 2024 form. That said, there’s quite a bit of injury risk still associated with Severino, and fielding-independent metrics like FIP (4.21) and SIERA (4.22) were actually more bearish on his 2024 performance than his already solid-but-unspectacular earned run average. There’s little doubt he improves the club and shows that the A’s are serious about spending this winter, but it’s a steep price to pay when taken in totality.

Severino will nevertheless add some credibility to a rotation that was largely lacking it. And the A’s, with a burgeoning core of quality players — Brent Rooker, Mason Miller, JJ Bleday, Lawrence Butler, Shea Langeliers — could hope that a few subsequent additions and strides from young talents like Jacob Wilson, Tyler Soderstrom and Zack Gelof might help them exceed expectations sooner than most thought possible.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported that the two sides agreed to a three-year, $67MM deal. Yahoo’s Russell Dorsey reported the signing bonus. Passan added details on the opt-out.

Pirates Acquire Spencer Horwitz From Guardians

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The Pirates announced the acquisition of first baseman/second baseman Spencer Horwitz from the Guardians for a three-player package: righty Luis Ortiz and left-handed pitching prospects Josh Hartle and Michael Kennedy. Cleveland dealt Horwitz within hours of acquiring him from the Blue Jays in this afternoon’s Andrés Giménez deal.

Horwitz, 27, looks as if he’ll get a crack at Pittsburgh’s starting first base job. He would’ve been an imperfect fit on a Cleveland team that already has Josh Naylor and Kyle Manzardo. There’s a much clearer path to playing time in Pittsburgh. The Bucs used Rowdy Tellez as their primary first baseman for most of the ’24 season. He didn’t perform well and was cut loose at the end of the year.

The lefty-hitting Horwitz has shown offensive promise both in Triple-A and the big leagues. He turned in an impressive .265/.357/.433 batting line over 381 plate appearances this year. Horwitz picked up 12 homers and 19 doubles while showing excellent strike zone awareness. He walked at an 11% clip while striking out 18.4% of the time.

Horwitz has a stellar minor league track record. He’s a career .316/.433/.471 hitter with nearly as many walks as strikeouts in 208 Triple-A games. He clearly has offensive ability, but he’s yet to get a full MLB run because of a lack of defensive value. Horwitz has been a first baseman for most of his minor league career. His 5’10” frame and hit-over-power approach are rare at that position. Toronto used him as part of their second base mix as well, but teams don’t seem to view him as an everyday player there.

The Bucs don’t have a great option at second base either. Nick Gonzales is the in-house favorite on the heels of a pedestrian .270/.311/.398 showing. The Pirates will probably stick with Gonzales at the keystone and use Horwitz at first, but the latter is at least capable of kicking over to second base as a fill-in option.

Horwitz has yet to reach a full year of MLB service. He’s under club control for six years. He’ll very likely be eligible for arbitration after two seasons as a Super Two qualifier, but the Bucs will get a couple years of what they hope is a plug-and-play first baseman on roughly league minimum salaries. It’s questionable whether Horwitz has sufficient power to profile as an everyday option. If he hits his ceiling, he’d probably project as a LaMonte Wade Jr. type who gets on base enough to be a solid regular. Pittsburgh’s first-year hitting coach Matt Hague worked for Toronto in recent years and is surely bullish on Horwitz’s offensive acumen.

Ortiz is the only member of the trio heading to Cleveland who has MLB experience. The 25-year-old righty has pitched in a swing role over the past couple years. Ortiz struggled over his first two seasons but turned in a quietly strong ’24 campaign. He started 15 of 37 appearances and logged 135 2/3 innings of 3.32 ERA ball. Ortiz managed solid results no matter what role he was asked to play. He turned in a 3.22 mark out of the rotation while allowing 3.49 earned runs per nine in relief.

The underlying profile didn’t match the strong ERA. Ortiz neither gets ground-balls nor strikeouts at high rates. His 8.8% swinging strike percentage was well below average. To his credit, Ortiz did take a major step forward with his control this year. After walking at least 12% of opponents in his first two seasons, he limited the free passes to a 7.6% clip.

Ortiz will have a tough time repeating this year’s success unless he finds a way to miss more bats. That’s not out of the question, as he has intriguing raw stuff. Ortiz sits in the 95-96 MPH range with both his four-seam and sinking fastball. He found a lot of success with a mid-80s slider that served as his top secondary offering. If he can sustain this year’s command while finding a better swing-and-miss pitch, he’d have a shot to be a mid-rotation arm. If not, he could find himself back in the bullpen as a long reliever.

The Guardians have a solid track record of pitching development, but they’re thin in the rotation for the second straight season. Tanner Bibee is the only lock for their season-opening rotation. Gavin Williams and Ben Lively will probably occupy back-end roles. Ortiz has a decent shot of cracking the front five, which would also include one of Triston McKenzie, Logan Allen or Joey Cantillo if they don’t make any further additions. Shane Bieber re-signed and could factor in by May or June as he works back from Tommy John surgery.

It’s still a relatively weak group, but the Guardians papered over a poor rotation by relying on a dominant bullpen this past season. While they’ll likely need to do so again, Cleveland could add at least one more starter via free agency or trade. Pittsburgh has a lot of upper level pitching talent, so Ortiz would’ve had an uphill battle to hold off arms like Thomas Harrington and Bubba Chandler for a rotation spot.

Ortiz lands between one and two service years. He’s at least one season from arbitration and could find himself on the border of Super Two eligibility next winter. Regardless of whether he gets to arbitration early, he won’t become a free agent for five seasons.

The Bucs also pay a bit of a prospect price to even the deal. Hartle was Pittsburgh’s third-round pick this summer. The Wake Forest product entered the spring as a potential first-round talent before struggling to a 5.97 ERA in his junior season.

Baseball America wrote in their draft report that Hartle has good command with fringy stuff. He sits in the low 90s with roughly average secondary pitches. It’s not the highest-upside profile on paper, but this is the type of arm with whom the Guardians’ player development department has thrived. Bibee and Bieber were also command-oriented college draftees whose stuff didn’t take off until they got into pro ball. While that’s certainly not a guarantee that Hartle will progress the same way, it’s not a surprise that he’s of interest to Cleveland.

Kennedy, 20, was a fourth-round pick out of a New York high school in 2023. He made 18 appearances in the low minors this year, working to a 3.66 ERA with a near-28% strikeout rate over 83 2/3 frames. As with Hartle, he draws praise for his athleticism and control but has subpar velocity. They’re each developmental fliers who have a shot to stick as starters if their stuff comes along.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the Pirates were acquiring Horwitz. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com had the return going to Cleveland. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet suggested earlier this evening that Horwitz might end up being flipped to Pittsburgh. Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Red Sox Preparing Offer To Corbin Burnes

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The Red Sox are preparing a formal contract offer to Corbin Burnes, write Chris Cotillo and Sean McAdam of MassLive. The former Cy Young winner is the final clear top-of-the-rotation arm available in free agency.

Boston came up empty in their pursuit of Max Fried. While the Sox were one of Fried’s top suitors, they balked at the massive $218MM guarantee which the southpaw landed from their rivals. The Red Sox have also seen reported targets Blake Snell and Nathan Eovaldi head elsewhere. The supply is limiting if the Sox are going to follow through on chief baseball officer Craig Breslow’s stated goal of “raising the ceiling” in the rotation.

Burnes would obviously accomplish that. While the righty hasn’t missed as many bats over the past couple seasons as he did during his best years in Milwaukee, he’s still an ace. Burnes fired 194 1/3 innings of 2.92 ERA ball for the Orioles in his platform year. He added eight innings with one run allowed in his lone postseason start. If the Red Sox were to land Burnes, they’d have one of the stronger rotations in MLB. He’d top a staff also including Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford and a hopefully healthy Lucas Giolito.

At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Burnes would receive a seven-year, $200MM commitment. That’ll almost certainly be light. Burnes was above Fried on virtually every contract prediction (MLBTR’s included). This has been a very strong market for starting pitchers. There’s a chance Burnes could land eight or even nine years on a deal that checks in between $250MM and $300MM at this point.

The Giants and Blue Jays are also known to be involved on Burnes. Baltimore has expressed a desire to keep him around, but that seems to be a longer shot. As a player who rejected a qualifying offer, he’d cost the Sox their second-highest draft pick and $500K of pool space from their 2026 international signing class.

Burnes isn’t the only qualified free agent (nor the lone high-profile Boras Corporation client) whom the Sox are pursuing. Boston is reportedly in the mix for Alex Bregman. In a separate column, McAdam writes that the third baseman is something of a divisive player in the Fenway Park offices. According to McAdam, manager Alex Cora and team president Sam Kennedy are more keen on a Bregman pursuit than Breslow happens to be. Cora is personally familiar with Bregman from his time as bench coach in Houston.

Whether Breslow is lower on Bregman as a player or simply prefers to focus his attention on starting pitching, that’s a potential complicating factor for free agency’s top remaining position player. The Sox presumably aren’t going to come away with both Burnes and Bregman. They could keep Rafael Devers at third base or pursue a Nolan Arenado trade if Bregman heads elsewhere. If they’re looking for a top-of-the-rotation arm and come up empty on Burnes, they’d likely go to the trade market. Reports have cast them more on the periphery of the Garrett Crochet bidding. The Sox floated the possibility of swapping Triston Casas for one of Seattle’s starters, but the Mariners rebuffed that interest while expressing a desire to hold their young pitching.

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