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Reds Acquire Taylor Rogers

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The Reds have acquired left-hander Taylor Rogers and cash considerations from the Giants, per announcements from both clubs. Minor league right-hander Braxton Roxby heads the other way. The cash going to Cincinnati is reportedly $6MM, half of Rogers’ salary this year. The Reds designated right-hander Owen White for assignment to open a 40-man spot.

Rogers, 34, has been one of the better lefty relievers in the league for quite a while now. Dating back to 2016, he has thrown 490 2/3 innings, allowing 3.34 earned runs per nine. He has struck out 28.2% of batters faced, limited walks to a 7% clip and also kept balls in play on the ground at a 46.3% rate.

He has occasionally been deployed as a closer, with a couple of seasons with 30-plus saves, but has mostly been a really good setup guy. He has 98 holds in his career. From 2016 through 2024, only ten pitchers racked up more holds. Héctor Neris is the only guy with both more saves and more holds than Rogers in that span.

The southpaw has spent the past two years with the Giants. He signed a three-year, $33MM deal with that club going into 2023. That was broken up into a $9MM salary in 2023, followed by $12MM in the final two seasons. That signing allowed him to play on the same team as his brother, righty Tyler Rogers.

As a Giant, the left-handed Rogers continued to post good numbers overall. He had a 3.83 ERA in 2023 and dropped that to 2.40 last year. It’s possible that the club saw some yellow flags under the hood last year, however. He averaged 93 miles per hour on his sinker, a career low and the third straight season in which that number dropped. He was at 95.7 mph in 2021 but then went to 94.3 and 93.6 in the next two years. His strikeout rate has also been falling in step, going from 35.7% to 30.7, 29.6 and 25.7% over the past four seasons.

He did still manage a shiny ERA in 2024 but there may have been some luck there. His 81.8% strand rate was well above the 72.1% league average, perhaps why his 3.75 FIP and 3.47 SIERA were both more than a run higher than his ERA. The Giants placed him on waivers in August last year, meaning any club could have just grabbed him if they were willing to take on the remainder of his contract, but no club did.

Those adjusted numbers are still decent, so it’s a sensible pickup for the Reds. Their relievers had a collective 4.09 ERA last year, placing them 18th out of the 30 clubs in the majors. They lost Buck Farmer and Justin Wilson to free agency. They traded Fernando Cruz to the Yankees for catcher Jose Trevino.

Adding to that bullpen has clearly been part of their plans. They have been connected to reliever Carlos Estévez multiple times this offseason but it’s been unclear how much spending capacity they have.

A couple of weeks ago, they signed a new TV deal with Main Street Sports, which prompted president of baseball operations Nick Krall to say that the club could perhaps direct some extra funding into building the roster. In recent days, they have agreed to sign Austin Hays to a $5MM deal and acquire Rogers as well as $6MM of his $12MM salary. They also agreed to a minor league deal with Wade Miley, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery but would make a $2.5MM base salary if he eventually makes the club.

Bringing in Rogers will hopefully upgrade the bullpen and give them a third lefty alongside Brent Suter and Sam Moll. Whether they still have funds available to go after Estévez or any other free agent remains to be seen. RosterResource estimates the club’s payroll at $110MM, about $10MM above last year. As of this writing, that doesn’t include Rogers, so adding in $6MM for him should push them up to a $16MM difference.

For the Giants, they have essentially cut the left-handed portion of their bullpen in half. Rogers and Erik Miller were the only southpaw relievers to toss more than an inning for the club last year, so they are now down to just Miller.

As mentioned, Rogers has been declining in terms of velocity and strikeouts, so perhaps the Giants expected those trends to continue and just wanted to get out now. In the process, they have saved $6MM, which could be redirected towards another part of the roster. RosterResource calculates their competitive balance tax number at $211MM, $30MM below the base threshold of $241MM. They paid the tax last year but it’s unclear if they plan to do so again in 2025. They have been connected to notable free agents such as Pete Alonso and Jack Flaherty this winter, so perhaps the savings could help them land one of those guys or some other free agent of note.

Of course, they are also adding some young talent in the form of Roxby. 26 in March, Roxby was signed by the Reds as an undrafted free agent in 2020. Due to the pandemic, that year featured a truncated draft of just five rounds.

Exclusively a reliever in his career thus far, Roxby has thrown 169 2/3 innings across multiple levels over the past four years with a 4.30 ERA. His 10.4% walk rate is a bit high but his 30.6% strikeout rate quite strong. Back in April, Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs ranked him as the #38 prospect in the Cincinnati system, noting that he’s a sidearming righty with two breaking balls. Geoff Pontes and J.J. Cooper of Baseball America highlighted Roxby ahead of the 2023 Rule 5 draft but he didn’t get selected that year nor in 2024.

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported the Rogers-Roxby swap. Mark Sheldon of MLB.com first reported the $6MM heading to the Reds.

Tigers Sign Tommy Kahnle

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The Tigers are adding to one of their primary strengths from the 2024 season, announcing the signing of veteran right-handed reliever Tommy Kahnle to a one-year, $7.75MM contract. Detroit designated Alex Faedo for assignment in a corresponding move. Kahnle is represented by the Ballengee Group.

Kahnle, 35, has been oft-injured in recent years but when healthy has been one of the top setup arms in the sport on a rate basis. He’s only pitched 97 frames dating back to 2020, but 83 of those innings have come over the past two seasons. And, since 2020, he touts a pristine 2.41 ERA with a 28% strikeout rate and 10.6% walk rate. He’s been placed into 38 save situations and tallied 32 holds and four saves along the way, only being saddled with two blown saves in that span.

Though Kahnle is right-handed, he carries neutral platoon splits because he possesses one of the game’s best changeups. That helps him mitigate damage against lefties, and the pitch is effective enough for him to use in right-on-right settings as well. He’s held fellow righties to a .206/.307/.343 slash in his career and seen lefties hit him at a similar .215/.295/.359 pace.

Because his changeup is so effective, Kahnle has taken the already frequent use of the pitch to new heights over the past three years. Since 2022, he’s thrown his changeup a comical 74.6% of the time on the mound. He famously threw 61 consecutive changeups as the Yankees progressed through the postseason this year. It’s hard to blame him for leaning on the pitch so heavily; opponents have slashed just .175/.236/.287 against Kahnle’s changeup in his career — including an even worse .157/.227/.264 slash in 2024.

Kahnle adds a seasoned setup arm to a Tigers relief corps on which manager A.J. Hinch leaned heavily down the stretch. Late in the season, Detroit was typically only using Tarik Skubal and Reese Olson as starters, following that duo with a series of bullpen games where any pitcher could be called upon at any time. The addition of Kahnle might add a bit more order and structure to what Hinch termed “pitching chaos.” Detroit doesn’t have a set closer at the moment, but Kahnle’s experience in high-leverage spots should put him in that mix along with Beau Brieske and Jason Foley, who paced the team with 28 saves in 2024.

With Kahnle, Brieske, Foley, Tyler Holton and Will Vest likely to handle late-inning work, the Tigers’ bullpen is largely taking shape. They’ll have Kenta Maeda in a long role as he looks to potentially pitch his way back into the rotation mix. Sean Guenther, Brenan Hanifee, Brant Hurter and former closer Alex Lange will be in the mix for innings as well.

The $7.75MM guarantee on Kahnle’s deal will take the Tigers to a payroll just shy of $119MM. That stands as an increase of roughly $15MM over the team’s 2024 levels but still sits nowhere close to the franchise-record $200MM mark reached under late owner Mike Ilitch (whose son, Chris, is now the team’s chairman and CEO).

The Tigers have recently been connected to seasoned late-inning relievers, specifically names with closing experience. They’ve also been prominently involved in third baseman Alex Bregman’s market. Given that interest, it would stand to reason there’s at least room for one more bullpen addition if the team prefers — the cost of Kahnle plus a second reliever would still fall well shy of even one year of Bregman’s salary — though it’s unclear whether the team has earmarked some potential funds for the longtime Houston third baseman or if the deal with Kahnle is the start of a pivot in a new direction.

The Tigers have added three free agents this offseason, though none has inked a deal longer than a year in length. Right-hander Alex Cobb and infielder Gleyber Torres both agreed to one-year deals with a $15MM guarantee.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the two sides were close to a deal. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic added that it’d be for one year. Robert Murray of FanSided reported the finalized agreement and the $7.75MM guarantee.

Pirates Sign Adam Frazier

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Jan. 29: The Pirates formally announced their reunion with Frazier this morning.

Jan. 28: Adam Frazier is headed back to the Pirates. The McKinnis Sports client is reportedly in agreement with his old club on a one-year, $1.525MM contract. The team has yet to announce the signing.

Frazier, now 33 years old, had a strong six-year run with the Buccos to begin his career, slashing a combined .283/.346/.420 in 2232 plate appearances while posting quality overall defensive grades at both second base and in left field.

That stretch culminated with a huge .324/.388/.448 slash in the first half of the ’21 season, with Frazier logging a career-low 10.7% strikeout rate along the way. That resulted in an All-Star nod for Frazier and helped ramp up trade interest while the Pirates operated as deadline sellers. The Padres wound up acquiring Frazier, who was controllable through the 2022 season, in exchange for outfielder Jack Suwinski, utilityman Tucupita Marcano and righty Michell Miliano.

Things didn’t pan out for Frazier in San Diego, however, and he’s never gotten his bat back on track. While he hit for a decent average down the stretch with the Friars, his walk rate and already limited power output tumbled. In 211 plate appearances, he batted .267/.327/.335 — about 13% worse than league-average, by measure of wRC+. Rather than pay him a raise in arbitration that winter, the Padres traded him to the Mariners, where his offensive struggles continued.

In three and a half seasons since leaving the Pirates, Frazier has suited up for the Padres, Mariners, Orioles and Royals. That covers a span of 1562 plate appearances, during which Frazier sports a tepid .236/.301/.336 batting line (82 wRC+). His 2024 season in Kansas City was the worst of his career; he batted only .202/.282/.294 in 294 plate appearances with the Royals last year and fanned in a career-worst 20.1% of his plate appearances.

Though his offense has continued to flounder, Frazier posted solid defensive grades at second base and in the outfield corners last year. His strikeout rate may have been a career-high but was still a couple percentage points lower than league-average, while his 7.5% walk rate was within one percentage point of average. The Pirates have not only a righty-heavy bench mix but more broadly a roster and lineup that skews right-handed. Oneil Cruz, Spencer Horwitz and switch-hitting Bryan Reynolds are the only lefty bats assured of frequent playing time in Pittsburgh. Frazier will give the Pirates a familiar face and a contact-oriented left-handed bat to slot into the bench group.

With Pittsburgh still facing uncertainty at both second base and in right field, Frazier is a cheap backup plan at either spot. He’s not going to be Plan A for the Pirates at either position, but he can step in at second base if a group of infielders including Nick Yorke, Nick Gonzales, Jared Triolo and Liover Peguero struggle and force versatile Isiah Kiner-Falefa into regular work at shortstop. Reynolds is locked into one outfield corner, but the other options on the 40-man roster right now include Suwinski (who struggled immensely in 2024), Billy Cook and out-of-options Joshua Palacios.

Frazier is the latest in a characteristically budget-friendly string of free agent signings for the Pirates. Pittsburgh has brought franchise icon Andrew McCutchen back on another one-year, $5MM contract — his third straight $5MM deal with the Bucs — which stands as their largest financial expenditure of the winter. The Pirates have also added lefties Caleb Ferguson ($3MM) and Tim Mayza ($1.15MM) on one-year deals, although Mayza’s deal was just agreed to yesterday and has yet to be formally announced by the team. RosterResource currently projects an $80.5MM payroll, including Frazier and Mayza, with about $104MM of CBT obligations. The Pirates have long been rumored to be seeking a corner outfield upgrade but have yet to bring in any outside help to fill that glaring need.

Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported the Pirates were in agreement with Frazier on a major league deal. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com had the $1.525MM salary.

Kirby Yates Passes Physical, Signs One-Year Deal With Dodgers

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Kirby Yates has passed his physical and agreed to a one-year deal with the Dodgers, according to multiple reports. The Beverly Hills Sports Council client is guaranteed $13MM and could unlock another $1MM in bonuses — $500K each at 50 and 55 appearances. The team has still not officially announced the signing.

Yates becomes the latest big acquisition in a huge Dodgers offseason. He’s their second marquee pickup in the late innings. Los Angeles signed Tanner Scott to a four-year, $72MM pact with deferrals not long before agreeing to terms with Yates. The Dodgers had also retained Blake Treinen on a two-year deal earlier in the winter. They’ll join Michael Kopech, Evan Phillips and Alex Vesia in what should be one of the game’s best relief groups.

Scott and Yates were arguably the two best free agent relievers, at least for the upcoming season. The 37-year-old Yates (38 in March) was never going to match the three-year terms for Jeff Hoffman and Clay Holmes, but he’s coming off the best platform season in the relief class. He turned in a sterling 1.17 earned run average while striking out nearly 36% of batters faced for the Rangers. Yates went 33-34 on save opportunities while firing 61 2/3 innings — the second-highest workload of his career.

Emmanuel Clase was the only reliever in MLB who was definitively better. Yates finished second behind Clase in ERA among relievers with 50+ innings. He was seventh in strikeout percentage. Yates placed in the top 25 in swinging strike rate (15.2%). Opponents had no success against either his 93 MPH fastball or his mid-80s splitter.

That was Yates’ second utterly dominant season. As a member of the Padres in 2019, he led MLB with 41 saves while turning in a 1.19 ERA across 60 2/3 frames. His next three years were essentially wiped out by injury, as he battled elbow issues and underwent his second career Tommy John procedure in March 2021. He returned to throw 60 1/3 innings of 3.28 ERA ball for the Braves in 2023 before signing a $4.5MM deal with Texas last winter.

Yates becomes the ninth free agent reliever of this offseason to sign for at least $10MM annually (not including swingman Nick Martinez, who accepted a qualifying offer from Cincinnati). He trails only Scott in average salary, though that’s obviously in large part because his age limited him to one year.

The Dodgers are well into the highest luxury tax tier and pay a 110% tax on any spending at this point. They’re investing $27.3MM to add Yates to the back of the bullpen for a year. RosterResource calculates their luxury tax ledger around $382MM — more than $70MM higher than any other club’s projected payroll.

Los Angeles will presumably announce the signing within the next day or two, which will require a 40-man roster move. That could be a simple DFA, though it’s also possible they trade from their bullpen. They’re planning to run a six-man rotation, which means they can only carry seven relievers.

Scott, Yates, Treinen, Kopech, Phillips and Vesia seem locked into six spots. Neither Anthony Banda nor Ryan Brasier can be optioned, so one of them would probably be squeezed out if everyone’s healthy on Opening Day. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported last week that the Dodgers were marketing Brasier in recognition of the forthcoming roster squeeze.

Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported last week that Yates and the Dodgers had reached a tentative agreement, pending a physical. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand was first to report that Yates had passed the physical and signed a one-year deal. ESPN”s Jeff Passan was first with the $13MM guarantee and $1MM in incentives, while Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic specified the $500K bonuses at 50 and 55 appearances. Image courtesy of Imagn.

Astros Trade Ryan Pressly To Cubs

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Jan. 28: The Astros have formally announced the trade.

Jan. 26: After a few days of speculation, Ryan Pressly has agreed to waive his 10-and-5 no-trade protection to okay a deal that will send the veteran reliever from the Astros to the Cubs.  Houston will receive right-handed pitching prospect Juan Bello in return, plus the Astros are sending $5.5MM along with Pressly to help the Cubs cover some of the righty’s $14MM salary for the 2025 season.  In exchange for agreeing to the deal, Pressly will receive a new no-trade clause, plus an assignment bonus to cover the tax difference in relocating from Texas to Illinois.  The trade will become official once the standard medical reviews are complete.

Pressly has been considered a trade candidate for much of the offseason, and probably even as far back as August, when he hit the minimum number of appearances to trigger the vesting option in his contract.  Initially a two-year, $30MM extension, Pressly gained a third year and an extra $14MM by making 124 appearances over the 2023 and 2024 seasons, blowing past the vesting threshold of 110 appearances.  While the Astros obviously valued the right-hander highly simply by dint of that frequent usage, Houston has been operating with fairly limited payroll space this winter, making a $14MM salary for a reliever entering his age-36 season seem a little pricey for their budget.

We already saw evidence of the Astros’ financial maneuverings in another major trade with the Cubs, when Kyle Tucker was sent to Wrigleyville for a trade package of Isaac Paredes, Hayden Wesneski, and prospect Cam Smith.  Like Pressly, Tucker was controlled just through the 2025 season, and he’ll be making $16.5MM in his final year of arbitration eligibility.  The Astros have already used some of the savings from the Tucker and Pressly trades in signing Christian Walker to a three-year, $60MM deal, and today’s deal will surely add more fuel to the speculation that a reunion might be possible between Houston and Alex Bregman.

RosterResource estimates the Astros’ 2025 payroll at roughly $217.6MM, with a luxury tax number of $236.3M.  This represents a drop from the Astros’ $244MM payroll and $262MM tax number in 2024, dropping Houston under the tax threshold by a bit less than $5MM.  Owner Jim Crane indicated that the Astros would be willing to spend at their 2024 levels under the right circumstances, so re-signing Bregman remains at least a possibility, now that more money has been cleared off the books.

USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported three days ago that a Cubs/Pressly trade was “on the verge” of being finalized, though some late hurdles emerged, such as some apparent late interest from the Tigers and Blue Jays.  Pressly ultimately held the final say given his no-trade protection, and it seems as though he chose Chicago over Detroit as his next landing spot.

Today’s news officially ends Pressly’s very successful run in Houston, which began when the Astros acquired the righty from the Twins at the 2018 trade deadline.  Pressly posted a 2.81 ERA, 30.9% strikeout rate, and 6.16% walk rate over 333 innings for the Astros, somewhat flying under the radar as one of the more effective relievers in baseball.  Beyond his regular-season work, Pressly posted a 2.78 ERA in 45 1/3 postseason innings for Houston, playing a big role in the club’s postseason success.

Initially used as a setup man, Pressly stepped into the closer’s role in 2020 and excelled as the team’s chief ninth-inning option, but the Astros still opted to sign Josh Hader to a five-year, $95MM contract last winter.  With Hader on board, Pressly was moved back to setup work last season, but he’ll now be Chicago’s top saves candidate, which Nightengale said was one of the assurances Pressly received in order to get him to approve the trade.

Rookie Porter Hodge pitched well after becoming the Cubs’ closer last year, and while Hodge is probably still viewed as the closer of the future, Pressly brings much more experience and a longer track record of quality.  Hodge will certainly still be used in high-leverage situations, and Pressly’s addition bumps everyone in the Cubs bullpen down a spot on the depth chart to strengthen the entire relief corps.

Pressly is the most prominent new face in a Cubs bullpen that has also added Eli Morgan and Caleb Thielbar to the mix this offseason.  Relief pitching was a clear need for the Cubs given how injuries greatly hampered their pen down the stretch last season, though the acquisitions still reflect Jed Hoyer’s preference of not over-investing in the relief market.  The Cubs did try to make a big splash as the runners-up to signing Tanner Scott, but with Scott off the board, Chicago pivoted away from another long-term options like Carlos Estevez to instead take on Pressly, who is a free agent next winter.  Some more moves might be coming, as The Athletic’s Chandler Rome, Patrick Mooney, and Sahadev Sharma report that the Cubs remain interested in adding to their relief corps even after acquiring Pressly.

The bottom-line results were still solid for Pressly in 2024, though there were some red flags in age-35 campaign.  Pressly’s strikeout, walk, and whiff rates were only slightly above league average, representing significant dropoff from his numbers in both categories just a season ago.  On the plus side, Pressly continued to generate grounders at a strong 48.8% rate, and his ability to keep the ball on the ground has long helped the right-hander counter-act his penchant for allowing hard contact.  Pressly also again was the among the league leaders in curveball and fastball spin rates, continuing his career-long run of elite spin.

As for Houston’s bullpen, the Astros figure to be on the lookout for some bullpen help to fill the void left behind from Pressly’s departure.  Depending again on how much GM Dana Brown has available to spend, the team could pursue some lower-cost arms, or perhaps make more of a bigger strike if Bregman indeed goes elsewhere and the Astros won’t be adding another major long-term salary.  Bryan Abreu, Tayler Scott, Kaleb Ort, and Bryan King project as the top setup or high-leverage options in front of Hader in Houston’s current pen.

Bello (who turns 21 in April) was an international signing for Chicago during the 2022 signing period, and he had a 3.21 ERA, 25.1% strikeout rate, and 7.7% walk rate in 89 2/3 innings for the Cubs’ A-ball affiliate in Myrtle Beach last season.  While not ranked amongst the Cubs’ top 30 prospects by either MLB Pipeline or Baseball America, BA’s scouting report cites his four-pitch arsenal and increased ability to find strikeouts with several of his offerings.  “He fits the Astros’ organizational philosophy of developing pitchers with three or more secondaries to play off of their fastball,” according to BA’s write-up.

The Athletic’s Chandler Rome was the first to report that Pressly agreed to the trade, and that at least one prospect was heading to Houston from Chicago.  ESPN’s Jeff Passan added the detail that the Astros would be covering some salary, with USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reporting the $5.5MM dollar figure.  Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 reported Bello’s involvement in the trade package.  The New York Post’s Jon Heyman had the additional details about Pressly’s new no-trade protection, as well as the assignment bonus.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Nationals Sign Shinnosuke Ogasawara

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The Nationals announced the signing of left-hander Shinnosuke Ogasawara to a two-year deal on Friday. The WME Baseball client is reportedly guaranteed $3.5MM. He’ll make $1.5MM this year and $2MM in 2026. The Nationals will pay a $700K posting fee to his former team, the Chunichi Dragons of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. It’s a $4.2MM investment altogether. Fellow lefty Joe La Sorsa was designated for assignment in a corresponding move.

Ogasawara, 27, pitched in part of nine seasons for Dragons. He threw 951 1/3 innings, allowing 3.62 earned runs per nine. He struck out 18.9% of batters faced while giving out walks at a 7.7% clip.

Despite fairly decent run prevention, there are also some concerning elements in Ogasawara’s profile. His strikeout rate in Japan is a bit below what is expected of hurlers in North America these days, as the league average has been in the 22-23% range in recent seasons. He’s also a bit undersized, listed at 5’11” and 183 pounds. That size isn’t necessarily a disqualification, as it actually makes him larger than Shota Imanaga, who is 5’10” and 175. Imanaga proved himself capable of handling MLB hitters in 2024 but he also had a 25% strikeout rate in his NPB career before crossing, notably higher than Ogasawara.

It’s also a metric that has wavered for Ogasawara. He got his rate of punchouts as high as 24% in 2022, but then it dropped to 20.1% the year after and then fell way down to 13.6% in the most recent season. That big drop in strikeouts did coincide with a tiny walk rate of 3.7% and he still managed to post a 3.12 ERA, but it does lead to questions as to how his stuff will play in his new environment. He throws a fastball in the 91-93 mile-per-hour range, as well as featuring a curveball and a changeup.

Despite the question marks, it’s a sensible gamble for the Nats to take. The club has been rebuilding for a while, having recently wrapped up their fifth straight losing season. There was some speculation that they might come into this offseason looking to take a step forward, perhaps making a bold strike or two, but that hasn’t really come to pass.

They did make some moves, but mostly avoided committing themselves to anything beyond 2026. They signed Josh Bell, Michael Soroka, Amed Rosario and Jorge López to one-year deals. They brought back Trevor Williams on a two-year pact. Nathaniel Lowe, who has two seasons of club control remaining, was acquired from the Rangers.

Bringing in Ogasawara on a two-year pact aligns with those other moves. The club has seemingly taken the path of making some decent additions while also waiting to see how young players like Dylan Crews, James Wood and Brady House develop. Once they get more clarity on those players and others, they can decide about more assertive moves in the future.

The same is largely true of their rotation. Young and controllable pitchers like MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin, Mitchell Parker, DJ Herz and Cade Cavalli have shown some progress to varying degrees but there are still some question marks there. Irvin and Parker have posted decent run prevention numbers but with subpar strikeout rates. Herz had a nice MLB debut in 2024 but had massive walk problems in the minors. Cavalli missed the past two seasons due to Tommy John surgery.

The Nats would probably like a bit more time to continue evaluating those guys to see who among them can emerge as real rotation building blocks. They could have rolled into the season with a rotation of Gore, Irvin, Parker, Herz and Cavalli but clearly wanted to add some more options and improve the overall depth. As mentioned, they signed Soroka and Williams, with Ogasawara now added into the mix as well.

Those three and Gore should have four rotation spots accounted for, at least to start the season. Both Soroka and Williams have some relief experience and could get pushed to the bullpen if they struggle or one of the younger guys pushes them out. Each of Irvin, Parker, Herz and Cavalli have options and could get pushed to Triple-A. The Nats could perhaps consider a six-man rotation, though doing so would limit them to a seven-man bullpen. Josiah Gray could get back in the mix late in 2025 but is currently rehabbing from a Tommy John and internal brace surgery which was performed in July.

Perhaps the bolstered roster will push the Nats into a greater chance of contention, but they are also looking up at three really strong teams in the division. Atlanta and Philadelphia have been powerhouses for years while the Mets just made the playoffs and have been very aggressive, including adding Juan Soto. If the Nats find themselves outside the playoff mix come July, any of the players they’ve added could become trade candidates, on account of their short windows of club control.

The Dragons posted Ogasawara on December 10, which led to a 45-day posting window that ended today. If he had not signed, he would have returned to the Dragons but he’ll be coming to Washington instead. Unlike Roki Sasaki, Ogasawara is not subject to the international bonus pool system. That’s because he is over 25 years old and has at least six professional seasons on his track record. MLBTR predicted him for a two-year, $12MM deal at the start of the offseason.

The Nats owe the Dragons a posting fee, with the size of that fee dependent on the size of the contract. That fee will be equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. Since Ogasawara signed for less than $25MM, it’s simply 20% of the guarantee.

La Sorsa, 27 in April, has been a fringe member of the Washington roster for a while. He was claimed off waivers from the Rays in June of 2023 but was outrighted off the roster in December of that year. He got his roster spot back in August of 2024 but has now been bumped off again.

Between the Rays and the Nats, he has 50 1/3 innings in the big leagues with a 4.47 ERA, 19.2% strikeout rate and 6.4% walk rate. He had a strong showing in the minors in 2022, throwing 73 1/3 innings with a 2.33 ERA, 31.4% strikeout rate and 3.6% walk rate. However, he’s been a bit less impressive over the past two seasons, having thrown 92 2/3 innings with a 2.82 ERA, 18% strikeout rate and 6.2% walk rate. A .268 batting average on balls in play and 82.3% strand rate helped him out in that time, which is why his 4.62 FIP was almost two runs higher than his ERA.

He’ll now head to DFA limbo for a week at most. The Nats could explore trades for the next five days but would have to put him on waivers after that, since the waiver process takes 48 hours. If he were to pass through unclaimed, he would have the right to elect free agency on account of his previous outright.

The Associated Press reported the terms of Ogasawara’s deal.

Dodgers Sign Tanner Scott

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Jan. 24: Scott’s deal also contains a conditional club option for the 2029 season, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports. That option, valued at $5MM plus incentives, would only be available if Scott suffers a “qualifying injury” and is not traded throughout the four-year term of his contract.

In essence, it’s likely a safety net for the Dodgers (and only the Dodgers) in the event of a major injury. Specifics regarding this option aren’t yet clear, though prior instances of conditional options such as this one typically revolve around UCL injuries. Scott does not have a no-trade clause, but he’d receive a $3MM assignment bonus if traded to another team, Ardaya adds.

Jan. 23: The Dodgers’ spending blitz formally continued Thursday, as they announced the signing of left-hander Tanner Scott to a four-year, $72MM deal. Scott, a client of the MVP Sports Group, reportedly receives a $20MM signing bonus on the contract, which contains $21MM of deferred money.

Scott was ranked as the #14 free agent in this winter’s class in MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, where we predicted that the lefty would land a four-year, $56MM deal. His deal with L.A. comes in well above that mark, but that’s not necessarily surprising given reports earlier this month that indicated Scott could land a deal with an average annual value in the $20MM range. Ultimately, this deal doesn’t go quite that far, though his $18MM AAV is still quite the premium for his position. According to MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, Scott is tied for the third-highest AAV for a reliever in free agent history alongside Liam Hendriks’s deal with the White Sox with the pair trailing only Edwin Diaz and Josh Hader. Meanwhile, it’s the fifth-highest total guarantee a reliever has ever landed in free agency behind only Diaz, Hader, Aroldis Chapman, and Kenley Jansen.

The $21MM in deferred money in the deal could lower the contract’s net present value below this tier of elite closer, but it’s hard to deny that Scott belongs in that elite company based on his incredible numbers the past two seasons. He was among the very best relievers in the sport last year with a 1.75 ERA, 2.92 FIP, and a 28.6% strikeout rate. His peripheral numbers were even stronger in 2023, as he struck out an eye-popping 33.9% of opponents and posted a 2.31 ERA with a 2.17 FIP. Among qualified relievers over the past two seasons, Scott ranks fourth in ERA and fifth in FIP. Only Félix Bautista of the Orioles and Cade Smith of the Guardians rank above Scott in both categories, and neither pitched in both the 2023 and ’24 seasons at the big league level.

Of course, that doesn’t mean Scott is necessarily completely infallible. The southpaw struggled badly with his command earlier in his career, and those issues were a key factor in the lefty surrendering a pedestrian 4.61 ERA and 3.91 FIP over his first six seasons in the majors. That’s left Scott without the lengthy track record of many of his peers in late-inning relief, and even this past season saw Scott walk 12.2% of his opponents. Scott managed to stay elite despite that hefty number of free passes by keeping the ball in the park the past two seasons, and the changes he’s made to improve his batted ball outcomes appear to be sustainable. Opponents barreled up 5.4% of their batted balls off Scott prior to the 2023 season, but the past two campaigns have seen that number drop to just 4.0%. Likewise, Scott’s Hard-Hit rate dropped from 36.2% in his career prior to 2023 down to just 26.7% over the past two seasons.

The Dodgers are clearly betting on his performance to remain as elite as it has been the past two seasons. L.A. got an up-close look at Scott’s dominance during last season’s NLDS, when he pitched three scoreless innings against the club for the Padres and garnered five strikeouts- four of which were against Shohei Ohtani. Looking ahead to the 2025 season, they’ll add Scott’s high-octane arm to an already strong bullpen that also features Michael Kopech, Evan Phillips, Blake Treinen, and Alex Vesia in the late innings. With Scott presumably taking over as the club’s closer, the Dodgers will now have the flexibility to use those leverage arms earlier in the game. That’s particularly useful in the case of Vesia, as he was the Dodgers’ only late-inning relief option from the left side last season.

Per RosterResource, the signing of Scott has pushed the Dodgers’ payroll for 2025 up to just under $369MM, with a nearly matching luxury tax payroll of just under $371MM. Those figures don’t factor in the deferred money in Scott’s contract, but that still puts the Dodgers’ payroll for 2025 more than $40MM higher than 2024, which was already a franchise record. They’re the only team spending even $300MM in payroll this year, and one of just three teams (alongside the Phillies and Yankees) with a luxury tax payroll above that marker. The upper limit on the club’s payroll capacity is unknown, but signing Scott (and Roki Sasaki last week) appear to have checked the final boxes the Dodgers were known to be pursuing upgrades for this winter. While further upgrades to the roster certainly can’t be ruled out, the club’s roster has very little uncertainty and it would hardly be a surprise if the Dodgers mostly stood pat over the final weeks before Spring Training beyond perhaps a long-anticipated deal to bring franchise stalwart Clayton Kershaw back into the fold.

With Scott off the market, right-handers Carlos Estévez and Kirby Yates are perhaps the two best options still available in free agency for clubs on the hunt for bullpen help. Jansen, David Robertson, Kyle Finnegan, and Tommy Kahnle are among the other late-inning relief arms available. The Red Sox, Braves, and Cubs were among the other teams that have been connected to Scott throughout the winter, while the Rangers and Diamondbacks are among other clubs known to be in the market for late-inning relief help at this point in the offseason.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported the agreement and the terms. Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic and Robert Murray of FanSided added details about the signing bonus and deferrals.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Braves Sign Jurickson Profar

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The Braves announced that they have signed free agent outfielder Jurickson Profar to a three-year, $42MM deal. The MVP Sports Group client will make $12MM this year and then $15MM in each of the next two seasons. Atlanta designated right-hander Connor Gillispie in a corresponding move.

Profar, 32, has been wildly inconsistent in his career but is coming off his best season. Once a top prospect with the Rangers, he made it to the majors as a 19-year-old but struggled in his first few seasons. He eventually showed some promise but frustratingly alternated between good and bad seasons.

He had one of those down seasons in 2023, which is why the Padres were able to sign him last offseason for just $1MM, barely above the league minimum. The Padres probably couldn’t have dreamed about the return on investment they would eventually get from that.

Profar got into 158 games and stepped to the plate 668 times. His 15.1% strikeout rate and 11.4% walk rate were both strong numbers but fairly normal for him. He managed to do more damage when he connected, without sacrificing any of his trademark plate discipline. His 24 home runs were a career high. The three numbers in his .280/.380/.459 slash line were all personal bests as well, apart from a .471 slugging percentage in his nine-game debut back in 2012. His 139 wRC+ easily eclipsed his previous personal high of 113 and was also put him in the top 15 among qualified hitters last year. The switch-hitter did that damage from both sides of the plate, with a 137 wRC+ as a lefty and 147 as a righty.

Given his capricious production over the years, it would be fair to be a bit skeptical that he could keep that kind of performance going. However, there are some encouraging numbers under the hood. Profar’s 44.8% hard hit hate rate, 91.1 mile-per-hour average exit velocity and 7.2% barrel rate were all significantly better than anything he had done before. His .302 batting average on balls in play was a career high but just a bit above the .291 league average.

Though Profar has played all over the diamond in his career, he’s mostly a left fielder now. He’s barely played the other outfield slots in his career. He hasn’t really been an infield regular since 2019. He logged just 18 innings at first base last year, the only place he played apart from left field during the campaign.

Profar’s work in left hasn’t been especially well regarded. Last year, he was given a grade of -8 from Defensive Runs Saved and -6 from Outs Above Average. Despite that, thanks to his huge offense and ten stolen bases, FanGraphs considered him to be worth 4.3 wins above replacement on the season.

That production was huge for the Padres, given that they had notable financial restraints, which is why they took that $1MM flier on Profar. They surely would have welcomed him back, given the longstanding ties between Profar and president of baseball operations A.J. Preller. However, their financial situation is perhaps even more grim now than it was a year ago. They reportedly need to make significant cuts to the budget while also looking for solutions on the roster. In addition to Profar’s absence in left, they have question marks behind the plate, in the rotation and at shortstop.

Profar has also expressed a fondness for San Diego and probably wanted to go back, but he also probably recognized that this is probably his best chance at a free agent payday. He had previously signed a three-year, $21MM deal with the Padres going into 2021 but opted out of that pact after two years. He settled for modest one-year deals in the past two offseasons but has now secured himself a strong three-year deal. MLBTR predicted a three-year, $45MM deal for him at the start of the offseason.

For Atlanta, outfield has stood out as a clear area for improvement this winter. Ronald Acuña Jr. suffered a torn ACL in his left knee last year and missed the second half of the season. He’ll be back in right field at some point in 2025 but probably not on Opening Day. Players like Ramón Laureano and Jorge Soler were used to cover for Acuña’s absence but jettisoned after the season. Soler was flipped to the Angels while Laureano was non-tendered. The club’s acquisition of Jarred Kelenic last offseason also didn’t go especially well. He struck out 29.6% of the time and hit .231/.286/.393 for a wRC+ of 86.

Time will tell how the club plans to play it once everyone is healthy. Michael Harris II will be in center but Atlanta has its designated hitter spot committed to Marcell Ozuna. Profar and Kelenic can flank Harris for now but Acuña will eventually be back. The lefty-swinging Kelenic has better numbers against righties but the club presumably isn’t giving the Profar $42MM to be a short-side platoon guy.

Perhaps Kelenic will eventually get pushed into a fourth outfielder role once Acuña is back, though he may have a bit of time to prove himself worthy of more. Ozuna is an impending free agent, so perhaps the foursome of Harris, Acuña, Profar and Kelenic can better co-exist in 2026 and beyond. Kelenic does have an option remaining, so some time in the minors is possible as well.

With Profar now in the fold, RosterResource calculates Atlanta’s payroll at $212MM and their competitive balance tax number at $230MM. The latter is $11MM shy of this year’s base threshold. They opened last year at $223MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos has previously said that he expects payroll to rise and that the club is willing to pay the tax again this year. However, most of his moves have been focused on adding financial breathing room. As mentioned, Soler was flipped in a salary dump and Laureano was cut. Travis d’Arnaud had his club option turned down. The club restructured the contracts of Aaron Bummer and Reynaldo López to kick some money down the road.

If there is still some powder dry, then perhaps Atlanta will pivot to adding some pitching in the coming weeks. They were connected to Nathan Eovaldi earlier in the winter and reportedly had an agreement in place with Jeff Hoffman, with Hoffman to be stretched out as a starter, before they grew concerned by something they saw in his shoulder during his physical. They were also connected to reliever Tanner Scott earlier in the winter. All those guys have signed elsewhere but the interest indicates Atlanta is looking to add to the staff.

For clubs still looking for outfield help, the market is essentially out of everyday players now. Juan Soto, Teoscar Hernández, Anthony Santander, Tyler O’Neill and Profar are now all off the board. The best remaining outfielders are role players like Harrison Bader, Randal Grichuk and Alex Verdugo. Clubs like the Royals, Astros and Blue Jays have been connected to Profar this winter, though the Jays signed Santander earlier this week.

Gillispie, 27, just signed a non-guaranteed contract with Atlanta in November. He made his major league debut with Cleveland last year but only logged eight innings and was non-tendered at season’s end. In his minor league career, he has thrown 426 1/3 innings with a 4.01 earned run average, 24.3% strikeout rate and 9.4% walk rate. Atlanta will have one week of DFA limbo to figure out what’s next for him. Since the waiver process takes 48 hours, any potential trade talks would have to come together in the next five days.

Robert Murray of FanSided was first with the agreement between Atlanta and Profar.

Introducing Our New MLB GM Tracker

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Examining the history of an MLB GM can be essential for research or informed speculation.  The problem?  There’s never been one place to easily reference each GM’s tenure…until now.

I’m proud to introduce our new MLB GM Tracker, a simple yet powerful tool for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers that displays each team’s GM dating back to the year 2000.  To the best of our ability, we’ve compiled start and end dates for every GM during that period, including those who served in an interim capacity.  You can learn more about Trade Rumors Front Office here.

The MLB GM Tracker allows you to search by name and filter by team, narrow to current GMs, and filter and sort by the number of active days.  At the moment, MLB GM tenures range from Buster Posey’s 115 days to Brian Cashman’s 9,851 days on the job.

One note: for this tool, we’re using “GM” as an umbrella term to mean the team’s top decision-maker in baseball operations.  Many of these people hold the title of “president of baseball operations” or something similar.

Here’s a look at the team level:

We’ve connected the MLB GM Tracker to our robust MLB Contract Tracker as well.  Clicking the GM’s name in the GM tracker takes you to his entire tenure with that team, within the Contract Tracker.  Here’s Matt Klentak:

When you’re in the Contract Tracker, which currently goes back to 10-1-08, you can filter to any GM and adjust the date range to see that GM’s work across different teams.  Here are Alex Anthopoulos’s biggest deals across the Braves and Blue Jays:

To learn more about our suite of MLB research tools, click here.  A subscription to Trade Rumors Front Office costs just $29.89 per year.

Please note: GM tenure dates were compiled through our research.  If you find an error, please use our contact form.  

Also, David Forst’s tenure with the A’s had to be broken up into two separate entries due to the team changing its name.

Astros Have Kept Offer Out To Bregman

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This afternoon provided a surprise when USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported that the Astros were leaving the door open to bringing back Alex Bregman. It was generally expected that the Astros had moved on once they acquired Isaac Paredes and signed Christian Walker to play the corner infield spots.

However, it seems the Astros never fully closed the door on their longtime third baseman. Houston had reportedly made Bregman a six-year, $156MM offer before they landed Paredes as part of the Kyle Tucker return. Bregman obviously did not accept, though it does not seem that the team has pulled the offer even after what seemed to a pivot to contingency plans.

Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports that Houston’s offer “remains on the table.” Rome writes that pressure within the Astros’ clubhouse has contributed to the team reopening discussions with the two-time All-Star in recent days. It isn’t known if that means they’re open to pushing their offer beyond $156MM, or if they’re simply hoping that Bregman’s asking price will come down to their level now that he’s unsigned deep into January.

Nightengale suggested this afternoon that if the Astros managed to keep Bregman, they could slide Paredes to second base while bumping Jose Altuve to left field. Rome confirms that the team is indeed considering that scenario. While Altuve to the outfield doesn’t seem to be set in stone, Rome writes that Bregman would stick at third base if he signed back in Houston. They’d need to find somewhere else in the lineup for Paredes.

Money remains a stumbling block. The Astros exceeded the luxury tax threshold last season. Rome reports that owner Jim Crane has been reluctant to do so for a second straight year. Houston already projects narrowly above the $241MM base threshold, with RosterResource calculating their CBT number around $244MM. The Astros could make a trade to dip below that mark. They’ve been working to offload most or all of the $14MM owed to setup man Ryan Pressly, though the veteran righty has full no-trade rights and could scuttle those plans. Mauricio Dubón ($5MM) and Chas McCormick ($3.4MM) are on manageable arbitration salaries and could be possible trade options if Houston can’t deal Pressly.

There’s essentially no way they’d get below the tax line if they re-sign Bregman. He’d very likely command more than $25MM annually. Even if they trade Pressly and decide to deal Paredes, who’ll play on a $6.625MM arbitration salary, they’d be above the line. That the Astros apparently still have an offer out to Bregman demonstrates that Crane isn’t firmly committed to staying below the tax threshold. The owner has said as much this offseason, though he has also been reluctant to approve long-term deals. Houston hasn’t signed a free agent contract longer than the five-year, $95MM Josh Hader deal from last winter since Crane purchased the franchise more than a decade ago.

The Tigers, Red Sox and Blue Jays have also been linked to Bregman. Talks between the infielder and Detroit were reportedly at a standstill as of Tuesday evening.

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