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Gio Gonzalez Announces Retirement

By Steve Adams | March 25, 2021 at 2:15pm CDT

Veteran left-hander Gio Gonzalez took to Instagram this afternoon to announce his retirement from baseball after a 13-year Major League career. The 35-year-old Hialeah, Fla. native was in camp with the Marlins on a minor league deal and called simply donning the jersey of his hometown club one of his “biggest dreams.” However, Gonzalez also added that his “body wasn’t keeping up with [his] mind.” The lefty offered a heartfelt thanks to the Athletics, Nationals, Brewers, White Sox, Yankees and Marlins organizations.

“My heart and mind are finally at peace with my decision,” Gonzalez wrote at the conclusion of his post. “Here’s one last tip of the cap! I’m coming home to my wonderful family. I love u!”

Gonzalez was the No. 38 overall draft pick by the White Sox back in 2004 and had, to say the least, an unconventional career arc with the team. Chicago traded him to the Phillies in Dec. 2005 as part of the Jim Thome blockbuster, only to reacquire him a year later alongside Gavin Floyd in the trade that sent Freddy Garcia to Philadelphia. Gonzalez was close to big league ready at that point and looked as though he could make his debut with the team that originally drafted him … until the White Sox again traded him away — this time to the Athletics as part of the return for Nick Swisher.

Between his draft status, his inclusion in trades for three high-profile big leaguers and his annual placement on Baseball America’s Top 100 prospect list from 2006-09, it was clear that Gonzalez was highly regarded within the industry. It took him a bit to deliver on that talent, but he did so in a big way with a breakout showing in 2010, when he tossed 200 2/3 innings of 3.23 ERA ball and solidified himself as part of the Athletics’ rotation.

That marked the first of six consecutive seasons in which the durable Gonzalez would make at least 27 starts and pitch to a sub-4.00 ERA. Oakland, as is often the case, traded him when he was on the cusp of arbitration eligibility, shipping him to the Nationals in return for a prospect package of four future big leaguers: A.J. Cole, Tommy Milone, Derek Norris and Brad Peacock.

Gonzalez was nothing short of excellent in Washington, finishing third in National League Cy Young voting in his first season as a Nat. He inked a five-year, $42MM contract extension with the Nats in Jan. 2012 and would go on to spend the next seven seasons in D.C. under the terms of that deal (which contained a pair of club options). Gonzalez’s first season with the Nationals was his best, but he finished sixth in NL Cy Young voting in 2017 — his final full year with the club. In parts of seven years there overall, Gonzalez racked up 1263 1/3 innings of 3.62 ERA ball and helped the Nats to four postseason berths.

With the Nats out of playoff contention in 2018, they traded Gonzalez to the Brewers for a pair of prospects. Gonzalez was brilliant in five starts down the stretch with Milwaukee, helping pitch the Brewers into the postseason. He re-signed with the Brewers in April 2019 after being granted his release from a minor league deal with the Yankees organization and again pitched quite well, tossing 87 1/3 frames of 3.50 ERA ball.

In the 2019-20 offseason, Gonzalez had a full-circle moment when he signed a one-year contract to return to the White Sox. He finally took the mound with his original organization on July 26 last summer. Gonzalez was tagged for six runs in his first appearance, but he bounced back with 28 innings of 3.54 ERA ball for the South Siders the rest of the way.

Gonzalez will walk away from baseball as a two-time All-Star who twice finished sixth or better in his league’s Cy Young voting. Long one of the game’s more underrated starters, his career body of work stands as a testament to his consistency: in 1933 innings, Gonzalez went 131-101 a 3.70 ERA and 1860 strikeouts. He earned more than $73MM in a career valued by Baseball-Reference at 30.1 wins above replacement and valued by FanGraphs at 32.1 WAR. Gonzalez never won a ring but appeared in the postseason five different times, made a pair of All-Star Games and was always good for an entertaining interview. It was a strong career by any measure, and Gonzalez will head into retirement having left his mark on several fanbases and countless teammates and coaches around the sport.

Orioles Select Matt Harvey

By Steve Adams | March 25, 2021 at 8:46am CDT

The Orioles have selected the contract of veteran right-hander Matt Harvey, per a club announcement. The move fills Baltimore’s 40-man roster and assures Harvey of a spot on the Opening Day club. Harvey had an opt-out clause in his contract yesterday, which gave the O’s 48 hours to add him to the roster or cut him loose, Dan Connolly of The Athletic tweets.

Harvey inked a minor league deal with the O’s back in mid-February and reported to camp as non-roster invitee this spring. He’s started three Grapefruit League contests, during which he’s yielded six runs on 10 hits and a walk with six punchouts through 10 innings of work. He and fellow veterans Felix Hernandez and Wade LeBlanc have been vying for spots on an extremely inexperienced pitching staff. Lefty John Means is the only other true lock for the rotation, though young righty Dean Kremer and southpaw Keegan Akin both seem likely to leave Spring Training with starting jobs.

Harvey, 32 this weekend, is years removed from his status as one of the game’s most promising young aces and from the “Dark Knight” moniker that took baseball by storm. The No. 7 overall pick in the 2010 draft, Harvey was in the big leagues by 2012 and flat-out dominated opposing hitters early in his career. Through his first 427 big league frames, the righty notched an outstanding 2.53 ERA while striking out 26.6 percent of the batters he faced against an excellent 5.6 percent walk rate.

Injuries, however, have wreaked havoc on what looked to be a brilliant career in the making. Harvey missed the 2014 season due to Tommy John surgery, and while he was terrific during his 2015 return, he dealt with shoulder discomfort in 2016 before ultimately undergoing the much more ominous thoracic outlet surgery. The general track record of pitchers coming back from a thoracic outlet procedure isn’t great in the first place, and Harvey is one of few pitchers who underwent both Tommy John surgery and thoracic outlet surgery in a span of under three years.

Unsurprisingly, Harvey simply hasn’t been the same since. He regained some velocity following a trade to the Reds in 2018 and parlayed a decent showing with Cincinnati into a one-year, $11MM free-agent deal with the Angels. However, that contract proved regrettable for the Angels, who released Harvey that July. A 2020 comeback attempt with the Royals was similarly unproductive.

Overall, since returning from throacic outlet surgery, Harvey has tallied 319 innings in the Majors and limped to a 6.09 earned run average. He’s yielded 365 hits, including 67 home runs, in those 319 frames while watching both his strikeout and walk rates trend in the wrong direction. His fastball, which averaged 95.9 mph at his peak, sat at 93.2 mph with the Angels in 2019 and 94.1 mph with Kansas City last year (when he was working in shorter stints).

The Orioles will hope to catch lightning in a bottle and see Harvey bounce back to an extent, although at this point the expectations for a rebound should be rather low. Harvey’s deal guarantees him just a $1MM base salary, so it’s a low-cost roll of the dice for a tanking Orioles club.

MLB Cracking Down On Pitchers’ Use Of Foreign Substances On Baseballs

By Steve Adams | March 24, 2021 at 1:49pm CDT

Major League Baseball has issued a memo informing all 30 clubs that it will seek to crack down on pitchers doctoring the baseball through the use of foreign substances, as first reported by Joel Sherman of the New York Post. One of the league’s tactics, per Sherman, will be to use Statcast data to gauge spin-rate increases for pitchers suspected of doctoring the ball.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan (Twitter thread) and ESPN’s Jesse Rogers provide further detail, reporting that the league will have compliance officers monitor dugouts, clubhouses, tunnels, bullpens and batting cages in an effort to reduce the use of foreign substances. Those officers will also pull random samples of baseballs to be analyzed in a third-party lab. Balls suspected of being doctored by a pitcher will be tested against that pitcher’s spin-rate data from Statcast.

MLB’s memo indicates that pitchers are subject to discipline from the Commissioner’s Office whether evidence is discovered during the course of a game or after the completion of a game. It’s unclear at this time just what type of penalties will be levied against pitchers who are found to be utilizing foreign substances. It’s also not clear if there will be any warnings issued or if the league will jump straight into discipline for first-time offenders. The league’s memo also indicates that team personnel can be the subject of discipline if they are determined to be helping pitchers doctor the ball.

Rampant use of foreign substances, be it pine tar or otherwise, isn’t exactly a well-kept secret throughout the league. There are rare occasions of managers calling out an opposing pitcher when the presence of a substance is particularly egregious, but as Sherman notes, many are reluctant to do so, knowing the accusation could quickly be turned back on one of their own pitchers.

The league’s attempt to crack down on the use of foreign substances aligns with other efforts to increase the amount of action in the game and move away from an increasingly three-true-outcome-oriented (i.e. home runs, walks, strikeouts) style of play. Reducing the use of foreign substances could cut back on strikeouts and perhaps on walks — at least in theory.

At the same time, it’s not at all clear how the league plans to differentiate 2021 spin-rate data from “normal” spin-rate data. The very presence of these new policies indicates that the league considers use of foreign substance to be a widespread problem, after all.

However, the widespread nature of the issue likely also means that prior offenders are already benefiting from inflated spin rates on their pitches. If a pitcher who used pine tar, sunscreen or any other number of substances continues to do so in 2021, a notable change in his spin rate would be unlikely. That could still result in discipline if a ball taken out of play after being thrown by a pitcher is found to have significant traces of a foreign substance, but the spin-rate analysis may not be as telling as MLB hopes. At the very least, that practice could prevent new pitchers from adopting the use of foreign substances, but depending on how prevalent one believes the issue to be, that could represent a rather small number of players.

Depending on the extent and frequency of disciplinary measures enacted by MLB, it’d be a surprise if we didn’t see some appeals from pitchers around the league. It’ll surely be a talking point in the final week of Spring Training and early in the season, but only time will tell whether the new measures have any actual efficacy.

Royals Sign Salvador Perez To Four-Year Extension

By Anthony Franco | March 21, 2021 at 11:36pm CDT

The Royals announced a contract extension with longtime catcher Salvador Pérez that could keep the backstop in Kansas City through the 2026 season. The contract’s four guaranteed years will pay Pérez $18MM in 2022, $20MM apiece in 2023 and 2024, and $22MM in 2025. There is also a club option for the 2026 season that is valued at $13.5MM with a $2MM buyout. In total, the deal guarantees Pérez at least $82MM with the potential to max out at $93.5MM over five years if the option is exercised. Pérez is a client of Beverly Hills Sports Council.

The 30-year-old (31 in May) is a face of the franchise, having spent his entire professional career in the Royals’ organization. A workhorse behind the plate and an instrumental piece of Kansas City’s back-to-back pennant winners and 2015 World Series team, Pérez was set for free agency after the season, but now looks to have a shot at spending his entire career in Royals blue. He is also set to surpass ten years of service this season, locking in full no-trade protection as a player with ten years in MLB and the last five with one team (not that a trade ever looked likely).

Were he to play his entire career in Kansas City, Pérez would follow Alex Gordon as career-long Royals. Gordon’s four-year, $72MM deal from January 2016 previously stood as the largest investment in franchise history, Pérez’s extension now takes the title.

The backstop’s standing with the organization no doubt played a role in this extension, but Pérez isn’t being paid off mere nostalgia. He’s coming off the best offensive season of his career on a rate basis, having slashed .333/.353/.633 with eleven home runs over 156 plate appearances last year. Pérez won’t sustain a .345 batting average on balls in play or a .300 isolated power (slugging minus batting average), but he needn’t hit at that level to remain productive. Despite taking on a heavy workload behind the plate, Pérez hit .251/.285/.466 between 2017-18. He has some rather notable on-base deficiencies as a result of minuscule walk rates, but Pérez offers plenty of pop and has outhit most at the position.

Tommy John surgery sidelined Pérez for the entire 2019 season, but he didn’t show any ill effects last year. An eye condition led to a three-week IL stint but was never expected to be a long-term concern. Indeed, Pérez’s quality production at the plate offers reason for Royals’ brass to believe he has put those issues behind him.

Defensively, Pérez has long rated as a below-average pitch framer (although he was around average in last year’s small sample). He has helped offset some of his receiving issues with a plus arm, though, and the Kansas City brass obviously believes strongly in his leadership and softer skills behind the plate, having now reached agreements on three separate extensions with the backstop over the course of his career.

With this deal set to begin in 2022, the Royals’ payroll outlook for this season is unchanged. Pérez will make $14.2MM in 2021 under the terms of his previous extension. Kansas City’s long-term books are fairly clear. Before the Pérez extension, the Royals had just $29.75MM in guaranteed commitments next season (including buyouts of 2023 options). Two years from now, only the recently-extended Hunter Dozier joins him on the books.

Pérez had been the top catcher option scheduled to hit free agency next winter. Excluding players with club options that seem likely to be exercised, Travis d’Arnuad and Yadier Molina are now set to headline the class behind the dish.

Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star was first to report the $20.5MM average annual value (Twitter link). Alec Lewis of the Athletic first reported the existence of the club option and the deal’s specific terms (via Twitter).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Carlos Carrasco Suffers Torn Hamstring

By Steve Adams | March 18, 2021 at 6:12pm CDT

6:12pm: Carrasco suffered a tear, per DiComo. It’s a serious injury that could require at least a six- to eight-week absence, a source told Mike Puma of the New York Post.

1:39pm: Just hours after Mets skipper Luis Rojas gave a positive update on right-hander Carlos Carrasco’s sore elbow, Carrasco is now headed for an MRI to evaluate the extent of a right hamstring strain, MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo reports (via Twitter). Carrasco apparently sustained the new injury when doing conditioning work following this morning’s 20-pitch simulated inning.

Given the new injury, DiComo notes that it is “exceedingly difficult” to see Carrasco being ready to step into the Opening Day rotation. The aforementioned elbow discomfort had already shut him down for eight days, and while he’d been building up in side sessions prior to that, Carrasco still has yet to pitch in a Grapefruit League game.

Obviously, a timeline on the injury can’t be known, but it’s a nevertheless inauspicious start to the talented righty’s Mets tenure. Carrasco, 34, came to the Mets alongside Francisco Lindor in the blockbuster deal that sent a prospect package headlined by Andres Gimenez to Cleveland over the winter. He’s expected to factor prominently into a deep Mets rotation, joining Jacob deGrom, Marcus Stroman and Taijuan Walker among the top four projected members of the staff.

If Carrasco isn’t able to go come Opening Day, it seems likely we’ll see two members of what increasingly appears to be a three-horse rotation race make the club. David Peterson, Joey Lucchesi and Jordan Yamamoto have all been competing for the fifth starter’s job and all have thrown well.

Orioles Sign Maikel Franco, Place Hunter Harvey On 60-Day IL

By Anthony Franco | March 16, 2021 at 1:05pm CDT

The Orioles have made a late addition to their infield via free agency, signing former Phillies and Royals third baseman Maikel Franco to a one-year, Major League contract. The O’s announced the move at the top of the hour, placing right-hander Hunter Harvey on the 60-day injured list with an oblique strain in order to open a spot on the 40-man roster. Franco, a client of Mato Sports Management, will reportedly earn $800K in guaranteed money with another $200K available via incentives and a trade assignment bonus being factored into the deal as well.

Franco makes a logical roster fit for the O’s, who had been otherwise slated to turn to Rio Ruiz at the hot corner. The 27-year-old Ruiz has just a .229/.299/.393 line across 617 plate appearances (84 wRC+) over the past two seasons. He has shown roughly league-average power (21 home runs, .164 ISO), but his on-base deficiencies and slightly below-average defensive ratings at third have left him hovering just above replacement level overall.

It’s reasonable to expect Franco to offer an upgrade on that production. The former Phillies top prospect showed flashes of promise in Philadelphia but never amounted to expectations. After being cut loose by the Phils, though, Franco posted a decent season with the Royals in 2020. He played in all sixty of Kansas City’s games (starting 51) and hit .278/.321/.457. As with Ruiz, low walk rates and batting averages on balls in play have led to on-base deficiencies. Franco, though, strikes out less often and has hit for more power than Ruiz.

Franco will be rather behind schedule at this point, so he may not be ready to step into the lineup on Opening Day. The two sides seemingly prepared for that reality, as MLB Network’s Jon Heyman indicated at the time of the agreement that Franco consented to being optioned to the Orioles’ alternate site early in the season, if need be, in order to continue ramping up. As a player with five-plus years of MLB service time, Franco can only be optioned to the minors with his approval.

Even amidst a full rebuild, there’s value for the Orioles in making improvements at the margins of the roster. Barring an unexpected breakout in 2021, it’d be hard to imagine Franco commanding a huge trade return. Still, should he sign, Franco would be a viable candidate to be flipped for something of future value at the deadline. Non-tendered by the Royals last fall, he’d surely come at a low cost.

Franco’s modest guarantee will have minimal impact on an already minuscule Orioles payroll. He’s promised a bit less than $300K more than the league minimum, pushing Baltimore’s payroll just beyond the $60MM mark, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez. Franco joins shortstop Freddy Galvis (one year, $1.5MM) as Baltimore’s only major league free agent signees of the winter. It’s always possible the O’s could make another addition or two, particularly as veterans continue to opt out of minor league deals elsewhere around the league, but there’s no indication at this time that anything further is in the works.

As for Harvey, today’s IL placement is the latest setback for the now-26-year-old former top prospect. Baltimore tabbed Harvey with the No. 22 overall pick back in 2013, and he was at one point widely regarded as one of the game’s premier pitching prospects. Injuries have decimated his career to this point, and the O’s moved him to the bullpen in 2019, hoping the reduced innings total would help to keep him healthier. He’s pitched 15 innings out of the ’pen over the past two seasons, working to a 3.00 ERA with 17 strikeouts against six walks.

Harvey had been expected to be in the ninth-inning mix for the O’s in 2021, but that won’t be the case — at least not early in the year. The 60-day IL placement can only be backdated to three days prior to Opening Day, meaning he’ll miss at least the first 57 days of the upcoming season. Harvey could technically return by late May, then, but there’s no timetable for his return at the moment.

MLB Network’s Jon Heyman first reported that the two sides were in talks. MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko added that the Orioles had put a formal offer on the table. Heyman then reported the agreement and the terms.

Nick Markakis Retires

By Steve Adams | March 12, 2021 at 10:56pm CDT

Veteran outfielder Nick Markakis is calling it a career after 15 seasons at the Major League level, he tells David O’Brien and Dan Connolly of The Athletic. The 37-year-old says he made up his mind shortly after the postseason ended and did not pursue any opportunities this winter. “My No. 1 decision and my main focus on this is obviously my kids and my family,” Markakis said, adding that he’s both fortunate and thankful to have been able to play the game as long as he has.

The seventh overall pick back in 2003, Markakis spent fewer than three years in the minors before debuting as a 22-year-old and never looking back. He hit .291/.351/.448 in 147 games and finished sixth in 2006 American League Rookie of the Year voting with the Orioles, setting the stage for a nine-year run of strong play with the organization which originally drafted him.

Baltimore signed Markakis to a six-year, $66MM extension that covered the 2009-14 seasons, keeping him with the O’s for three would-be free agent seasons. Markakis helped the Orioles to playoff berths in 2012 and in 2014, and in total he posted a strong .290/.358/.435 slash through 5966 plate appearances as an Oriole, winning two Gold Gloves along the way.

Free agency took Markakis to his native Georgia, however, as he inked a four-year, $44MM contract to join an up-and-coming Braves club as their primary right fielder. He spent his next (and final) six seasons in Atlanta, batting a combined .283/.357/.402 and making his lone All-Star appearance with the ’18 Braves — a season in which he also took home a Silver Slugger Award and his third career Gold Glove.

Markakis was a workhorse both in Baltimore and Atlanta, averaging 151 games played from his 2006 debut up through the 2019 season. His only two injuries of note were a fractured hamate bone 2012 and a fractured wrist in 2019. He played in all 162 games of the 2018 season — one of seven seasons in which the ultra-durable Markakis played at least 160 games.

All in all, Markakis will wrap up his career as a .288/.357/.423 batter over the life of 9321 plate appearances. He racked up 2388 hits along the way, including 189 home runs, 514 doubles and 22 triples to go along with 66 steals, 1046 runs batted in and 1119 runs scored. Always somewhat of an under-the-radar star, Markakis derived much of his value from strong on-base percentages and terrific defense for much of his career — one that was valued at 28.7 wins above replacement by FanGraphs and 34 WAR by Baseball-Reference. Markakis earned more than $120MM over 15 seasons in the big leagues and will be remembered as a beloved member of two franchises.

Pirates Sign Trevor Cahill

By Mark Polishuk | March 12, 2021 at 12:45pm CDT

The Pirates have made a late addition to their rotation mix, announcing Friday that they’ve signed veteran righty Trevor Cahill to a one-year deal. The JBA Sports client will reportedly be guaranteed $1.5MM and have the opportunity to take home another $1MM via incentives. Those incentives are based on innings pitched and kick in with a $100K bonus for reaching 75 frames. Cahill would also earn $150K for reaching 100 innings, $200K at 125 innings, $250K at 150 innings and $300K at 175 innings.

Cahill received interest from as many 16 teams, Nightengale writes, following a season that saw him post a 3.24 ERA/4.38 SIERA over 25 innings with the Giants. Presumably, based on the terms of his contract, much of that interest was on non-guaranteed deals.

Long a ground-ball specialist, Cahill seemed to change course in 2020, albeit with the caveat of his very small sample size of work. Cahill had only a career-low 33.3% grounder rate, while his K% rocketed to 29.2%, by far the highest of his 12-year career. His Statcast metrics were solid overall, and Cahill continued to deliver his signature elite-level curveball spin.

It was a solid bounce-back outing from a very rough 2019 season that Cahill post a 5.98 ERA/4.95 SIERA over 102 1/3 innings with the Angels. Cahill was bedeviled by a 22.5% home run/fly ball rate that season, but he cut that number down to a much more palatable 12.5% in 2020.

The 33-year-old Cahill worked as both a starter and reliever in San Francisco, and it seems likely that he’ll be ticketed for rotation work in Pittsburgh. Certainly, his incentive structure is geared toward that role. With Jameson Taillon, Joe Musgrove, Trevor Williams, and Chris Archer all now pitching for other teams, the Pirates have definitely need for some innings-eating arms in the rotation.

Cahill joins fellow newcomer Tyler Anderson alongside Mitch Keller, Chad Kuhl, and Steven Brault as the top rotation candidates in Pittsburgh, though this collection could change significantly as the season goes along — whether just by simple attrition, other youngsters stepping up to grab jobs, or the rebuilding Pirates trading more hurlers elsewhere.

USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported the agreement and the terms (Twitter links).

2021-22 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings

By Tim Dierkes | March 11, 2021 at 11:05pm CDT

Opening Day is three weeks away, and here at MLB Trade Rumors it’s time to look ahead to the 2021-22 free agent class. These players are on track to become free agents after the 2021 season, but a lot can change before we reach that point. As always, these players are ranked by my estimate of their 2021-22 open market earning power. You can see the full list of 2021-22 MLB free agents here.

It’s worth noting that the collective bargaining agreement expires on December 1st. With so much uncertainty as to how that will play out and whether there will be a work stoppage, I’m going to mostly set it aside for the purposes of this post.

1. Francisco Lindor. The largest MLB free agent contract ever signed was Bryce Harper’s 13-year, $330MM deal with the Phillies two years ago. Meanwhile, the largest extension was the 12-year, $365MM deal signed by Mookie Betts last summer. The highest average annual value was the $36MM achieved by Mike Trout and Gerrit Cole. These are the records Lindor figures to be aiming for if he reaches free agency after a strong 2021 season. A 5-WAR season, which is what projection systems call for, would help fully erase a 2020 campaign that saw the shortstop post a career-worst 102 wRC+ in 266 plate appearances.

Lindor is not the game’s best-hitting shortstop, and might not even belong in the top five. But it is the combination of a quality bat and strong defense that puts him in the conversation for the best overall at his position. As you’ve no doubt heard, the 2021-22 free agent shortstop class is exceptional, with eight potential starters at the position. At least half of them are star-caliber.

Lindor’s nickname, Mr. Smile, comes from the impression that he represents “nothing but pure baseball joy,” in the words of Will Leitch. Lindor’s personality will be amplified now that he’s been traded to the big-market Mets. Upon the January 7th trade, there was an assumption by some that the suddenly deep-pocketed Mets would move quickly to sign Lindor to a contract extension. Those talks might be taking place right now, based on this Jon Heyman tweet, and he describes Opening Day as “at least a soft deadline.” By the next installment of these Power Rankings, we should know whether Lindor is likely to reach the open market at age 28. Lindor is represented by SportsMeter.

2. Corey Seager. Born about five months after Lindor, Seager is arguably just as good. Seager finished 9th in the NL MVP voting in the abbreviated 2020 season, and he too is forecasted to post a 5-WAR 2021 season. Seager played beyond that level from 2016-17, but he underwent Tommy John surgery in April 2018 and was limited to 26 games that year. His 2019 return was more good than great, but then Seager put up a 152 wRC+ in 232 regular season plate appearances in 2020, going on to win both the NLCS and World Series MVP awards. Aside from possibly Fernando Tatis Jr., no shortstop carries a more potent bat than Seager.

Defensively, Seager’s work does not jump off the page, especially that which came after his Tommy John procedure. It stands to reason that Seager may be expected to move to the hot corner at some point during the course of his next contract. For that reason we’ve got him a touch behind Lindor in earning power, but that could change. The Dodgers have the inside track to signing Seager if they want to, and it’s even plausible they could lock him up while dipping back under whatever the base tax threshold is in 2022. Seager is represented by the Boras Corporation.

3. Trevor Bauer. Will Bauer return to the free agent market after a single season with the Dodgers? He’s built the option into his contract. If Bauer opts out of the remaining two years and $64MM, he gets a $2MM buyout, but $20MM of his ’21 salary will be deferred without interest until 2031. So there’s a financial calculation to be made, and locking in more guaranteed money – potentially more than $200MM – could become especially appealing if Bauer pitches at a Cy Young-caliber level for all of 2021. He’ll also be free of the qualifying offer the next time around, though it remains to be seen how that might be adjusted in the next CBA.

The easier choice might be to opt out after 2022, at which point Bauer will have earned $85MM over two seasons and wouldn’t be risking much. Bauer is represented by Luba Sports.

4. Trevor Story. Story’s 13.5 WAR since 2018 has only been bested by Lindor and Xander Bogaerts among shortstops. Still, age is a big factor in free agent earning power, as it affects the number of years teams are willing to give. And Story is a full 22 months older than Carlos Correa. Story is still a young free agent, however, as he’ll play at age 29 in the first year of his next contract.

Story mainly has to contend with Coors Field, in that he has a 141 wRC+ there since 2018 but a 105 mark on the road. It’s not that simple, and many good hitters have seen continued success after leaving Coors. But Story’s earning power may be boosted if the Rockies move him at the July trade deadline and he puts up his customary 120 wRC+ for a new team. Plus, he could potentially shed the qualifying offer with a trade.

Story’s defense likely slots in ahead of Correa and Seager, and he’d beat any fellow free agent in a foot race. As an all-around player, Story is quite valuable and comes with few question marks outside of the Coors Field factor. He’s represented by Excel Sports Management.

5. Carlos Correa. Correa was once mentioned in the same breath as Lindor and Seager for those prognosticating about this free agent class, but his star has dimmed considerably since the Astros won the World Series in 2017. There’s the sign-stealing scandal, in which Correa was a central player. But so too was George Springer, and he was able to land a strong $150MM contract after re-asserting his hitting prowess sans trash cans.

For Correa, the problem is more that since 2017, he’s not been able to post a season in which he was both healthy and an above average hitter. He raked at a 143 wRC+ in 2019, but was limited to 75 games due to a cracked rib and a back injury. He avoided the IL in 2020, but put up a career-worst 98 wRC+ in 221 regular season plate appearances before going nuts for 55 PA in the postseason. So before extending a contract of seven-plus years, teams need to see if Correa can be the 5-WAR player he once was. His defense probably rates somewhere between Lindor and Seager.

Correa has age in his favor, as he’s about five months younger than Seager and 10 months younger than Lindor. Still, he has the widest error bars of anyone on this list, and his 2021 season is crucial. The Astros are at least taking the typical stance of planning to explore an extension. Correa is represented by WME Baseball.

6. Nolan Arenado. Arenado, who was paired with Story on the left side of the Rockies’ infield for five years, has the ability to join him in free agency. It’d require opting out of the remaining five years and $164MM on his deal. To take such a leap, Arenado’s lone season with the Cardinals would have to be reminiscent of his stellar 2015-19 work, rather than the below-average output of his 48-game 2020 campaign. He did play through a shoulder injury for much of the 2020 season. Even with a 5-WAR 2021, Arenado might prefer to stick with the certainty of his current contract rather than chase a sixth guaranteed year. Arenado is represented by Wasserman.

7. Freddie Freeman. Freeman had received MVP votes in five separate seasons prior to 2020, and despite a July COVID positive he went on to win the award. He’s inarguably one of the top eight hitters in baseball right now, and possibly better than that. Freeman signed a record contract extension for his service class back in 2014, which is why he’s scheduled to reach free agency as a 32-year-old. Paying him through age 36 would mean a five-year term. The Athletic’s David O’Brien has made it clear Freeman is highly unlikely to leave the Braves, so perhaps he’ll be surrendering his place on this list before long. Freeman is represented by Excel Sports Management.

8. Kris Bryant. It seems odd to put Bryant this low, as he put up a 4.8 WAR season as recently as 2019. At that point a free agent contract below $200MM would have seemed silly, but Bryant floundered in an injury-marred 2020 season and bears a 3-WAR projection heading into his age-29 campaign. His defensive work at third base rates somewhere around average, and he’s generally held his own in the outfield corners.

It’s possible Bryant peaked early, with a 20.7 WAR total over his first three seasons that placed him on a Hall of Fame trajectory. It’s also possible there are many more 130 wRC+ seasons left in his bat, and he’ll be a cornerstone in someone’s lineup. Despite losing a grievance against the Cubs for manipulating his service time, and more recently enduring trade rumors, Bryant remains open to contract extension offers from the North Siders. He seems more likely to hit the open market following a critical 2021 season. Bryant is represented by the Boras Corporation.

9. Michael Conforto. Conforto is easily one of the 30 best hitters in baseball, and with his recent excellent work a case can be made for top 20. Though the Mets gave him some time in center field in 2017-19, he fits best in a corner. It’s been a while since a non-superstar corner outfielder has landed a six-year deal in free agency, but that figures to be a target for Conforto in light of George Springer’s contract. Interestingly, Mets president Sandy Alderson told reporters recently that one reason the team stopped at five years in the Springer bidding was that going to six would have made it harder to extend Conforto.

Conforto will be a full 29 months younger on Opening Day 2022 than Springer will be this year. So there’s a case to go to a sixth or even seventh year for Conforto, though he’s generally not as center field capable as Springer. As with Lindor, the Mets may look to hammer something out before the season begins. Conforto is represented by the Boras Corporation.

10. Clayton Kershaw. Despite a Hall of Fame worthy 13-year career, Kershaw is only about to turn 33 years old. As of last month, though, he was non-committal about even playing in 2022 before later saying he has “a few years left in the tank.” Dodgers President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman told Jorge Castillo of the L.A. Times, “Obviously, it’s personal for him and Ellen, but I feel like all is right in the world if he finishes his career, whenever that is, in however many years, as a Dodger.” As Castillo notes, it would certainly be appealing to Kershaw to play close to home for the Rangers next year.

If it’s only a two-horse race and Kershaw is not likely to chase the money, perhaps his earning power is diminished. But a four-year contract paying him through age 37 wouldn’t be unreasonable, if he wants to play that long. Kershaw may prefer the flexibility of a two or three-year pact. Kershaw is represented by Excel Sports Management.

Honorable mentions

At this point, generally the potential for a $100MM contract gets a player onto this list. I see three more players who could get there: Javier Baez, Max Scherzer, and Noah Syndergaard. Players such as Lance McCullers Jr., Kevin Gausman, Marcus Stroman, Dylan Bundy, Anthony Rizzo, and Lance Lynn might comprise the next tier.

Astros’ Forrest Whitley To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

By Mark Polishuk | March 10, 2021 at 4:54pm CDT

MARCH 10: Manager Dusty Baker announced Wednesday that Whitley will undergo Tommy John surgery, per Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. He’ll miss the entire season as a result.

MARCH 7: Astros pitching prospect Forrest Whitley has been advised to undergo Tommy John surgery, according to Mark Berman of KRIV Fox 26 (Twitter link). Whitley has been battling arm soreness that has now been diagnosed as a right UCL sprain, the team told Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (Twitter link) and other reporters. No decision has yet been made about Whitley’s next step, as the right-hander is seeking a second opinion.

A 14-15 month layoff for TJ rehab would be the biggest setback yet in a career that has been hampered by injuries. Whitley also had an forearm problem last season that led to an early shutdown at the Astros’ alternate training site, and he has been sidelined with shoulder and oblique injuries in past years. Beyond just health woes, Whitley was also issued a 50-game drug suspension in 2018.

Despite all of these issues, Whitley’s potential is still so highly regarded that he has continued to remain a fixture on top-100 prospect lists over the last four years. Selected with the 17th overall pick of the 2016 draft, Whitley is still only 23 years old, as the Astros took the San Antonio native as a high schooler. Between the injuries and the suspension, however, Whitley has thrown only 197 innings as a professional from 2016-19, and just 24 1/3 frames at the Triple-A level. That brief stint at Triple-Round Rock didn’t pan out, as Whitley was torched for a 12.21 ERA with nine home runs allowed.

In the short term, the Astros were hoping Whitley would rebound from his lost season and look good enough to receive consideration for a MLB promotion at some point in 2021. Over the longer term, Whitley was seen as a bridge to the next generation of the Houston rotation, as Zack Greinke, Justin Verlander, and Lance McCullers Jr. can all be free agents after the season (and Verlander will already miss all of 2021 due to his own Tommy John procedure). Framber Valdez’s season may also be in question thanks to a broken finger, which is why the Astros added some veteran stability through at least the 2022 campaign by signing Jake Odorizzi yesterday.

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