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Ian Desmond Opts Out Of 2021 Season

By Anthony Franco | February 21, 2021 at 9:33am CDT

Rockies outfielder Ian Desmond is opting out of the 2021 season, at least temporarily. He made the announcement on his Instagram page (h/t to Robert Murray of FanSided).

“Over the last few months, I’ve had tough conversations. I’ve asked a lot of questions and done a lot of thinking. For now, I’ve decided to opt out of the 2021 season. My desire to be with my family is greater than my desire to go back and play baseball under these circumstances. I’m going to continue to train and watch how things unfold,” Desmond wrote as part of his statement.

Desmond also opted out of the 2020 season amidst concerns over COVID-19. Doing so meant forfeiting the prorated portion of his $15MM salary last year. Now in the final guaranteed season of his contract, Desmond would’ve been in line for an $8MM salary this season. The well-respected veteran will instead exercise his right to step away from the game. His statement leaves open a potential return later in the season, but it’s certainly possible this marks the end of Desmond’s tenure in Colorado. His contract contains a $15MM club option for 2022, but that’ll certainly be bought out, even if Desmond returns to the field at some point this year.

As Joel Sherman of the New York Post points out (on Twitter), the Rockies are the only team in the league not to have signed a major league free agent this offseason. It remains to be seen whether the club plans to reinvest Desmond’s forfeited salary elsewhere on the roster. His departure will open a spot on the Rockies’ 40-man roster, which was previously full.

Over twenty players stepped away from the sport last season. With COVID-19 rates in many parts of the United States higher now than they were last summer, it’s possible other players share Desmond’s concerns about returning to the field at this time.

Mets Sign Taijuan Walker

By Steve Adams | February 20, 2021 at 6:08pm CDT

TODAY: The Mets have officially announced Walker’s deal. Noah Syndergaard has been placed on the 60-day injured list to open up a roster space for Walker.

FEB. 19, 8:14am: It’s a two-year, $20MM deal with a player option for a third season, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports (Twitter links). The deal, which is still pending a physical, will pay Walker $10MM in 2021 and $7MM in 2022. The player option is at a base of $6MM and can rise to $8.5MM via escalator clauses based on Walker’s performance. There’s a $3MM buyout on the option, should Walker decline, making for a total of $20MM in guarantees.

7:04am: The Mets and free-agent right-hander Taijuan Walker have agreed to terms on a contract, tweets SNY’s Andy Martino. The Excel Sports client will step into the rotation alongside Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco, Marcus Stroman and David Peterson.

Heading into his age-28 season, Walker was the youngest established starter available in free agency. The former top prospect made his big league debut with the Mariners just two weeks after his 20th birthday back in 2013 and solidified his place in the Seattle rotation in 2015 at 22 years of age. The M’s traded Walker to the D-backs in a high-profile 2016 deal also including Ketel Marte, Jean Segura and Mitch Haniger, and he went on to have his best season in 2017: 157 1/3 innings of 3.49 ERA ball.

Walker went down with a torn ulnar collateral ligament in 2018, however, and the resulting Tommy John surgery wiped out nearly his entire season. He was on the comeback trail in 2019, but those efforts were derailed by a strained shoulder capsule that limited him to one inning. After pitching a combined 14 innings in 2018-19, Walker was non-tendered by the D-backs and returned to the Mariners on a low-cost, one-year deal in free agency.

The signing worked out well for the Mariners, who parlayed five solid starts from Walker into a deadline trade with the Blue Jays that netted outfield prospect Alberto Rodriguez (currently Seattle’s No. 24 prospect at Baseball America). Walker made six starts with the Blue Jays and pitched to a pristine 1.37 ERA with a 25-to-11 K/BB ratio over the life of 26 1/3 innings.

Overall, Walker’s 2.70 earned run average in 53 1/3 innings last year looked quite sound. However, despite that impressive mark, his age and his former top prospect pedigree, Walker appears to have had a difficult time finding a club willing to meet his asking price this winter. There’s likely some good reason for that, as once looking past the ERA, the numbers aren’t nearly as appealing.

On his way to that 2.70 ERA, Walker benefited from a .243 average on balls in play and a slightly elevated 78.5 percent strand rate. His 22.2 percent strikeout rate was below the league average, as was his 39.1 percent ground-ball rate. The righty’s 93.5 mph average heater was down from its 95.1 mph peak, and his swinging-strike rate was among the lowest in the league (13th percentile, per Statcast). Fielding-independent marks like SIERA (4.60) and Statcast’s xERA (4.87) aren’t as bullish on Walker, who averaged just 4 2/3 innings per start in 2020.

Add in the elbow and shoulder injuries in 2018-19, and some trepidation from interested teams is understandable — but only to an extent. We’ve seen the free-agent market regularly pay upwards of $10-12MM per year on mutli-year deals to fourth starter types, and Walker ought to be at least that moving forward. His prospect pedigree, youth, velocity and raw stuff give him the upside to become quite a bit more than that as well.

With the Mets, Walker needn’t perform like anything more than a fourth starter, thanks to the talent they already have atop their starting staff. Of course, if he does take a step forward and pitch closer to last year’s ERA marks, an already impressive rotation will only look all the more formidable. With the newest agreement in place, the Mets have an enviable quintet of deGrom, Carrasco, Stroman, Walker and Peterson. Beyond that looms the return of Noah Syndergaard, who’ll ideally be ready for a summer return following his own Tommy John surgery last May.

Unlike in 2020, that group is backed up by considerable depth. Joey Lucchesi, Jordan Yamamoto, Sean Reid-Foley and Sam McWilliams were added to the 40-man roster via trade and free agency this winter, and prospects Franklyn Kilome and Thomas Szapucki will be able to work toward minor league readiness in a game setting. The Mets also added lefty Mike Montgomery and righty Jerad Eickhoff on minor league deals, and it’s conceivable that they could yet bring in some additional non-roster depth in Spring Training.

While it may not be quite the offseason Mets fans envisioned, it’s hard to look at the current roster and consider the offseason anything other than a substantial step in the right direction. New York’s marquee acquisition of Francisco Lindor and Carrasco will go down as its largest strike of the offseason, with free-agent acquisitions of Walker, James McCann, Trevor May, Jonathan Villar, Kevin Pillar, Aaron Loup and Albert Almora have deepened the roster.

The Mets didn’t shatter the luxury tax threshold as many expected when Steve Cohen purchased the team — they’d have done so had their near-deal with Trevor Bauer been completed — but Walker’s deal pushes their baseline payroll and their luxury-tax ledger both just shy of $200MM. It’s a franchise record for Opening Day payroll by a magnitude of roughly $40MM, setting the tone for future offseasons under Cohen’s ownership.

Dodgers Re-Sign Justin Turner

By TC Zencka and Tim Dierkes | February 19, 2021 at 11:20am CDT

Feb. 19: The Dodgers have formally announced the signing of Turner to a two-year deal that runs through the 2022 season. Lefty Caleb Ferguson, who had Tommy John surgery last September, has been placed on the 60-day IL to open a 40-man roster spot.

Feb. 13: Justin Turner alerted the baseball universe of his return to Los Angeles. Pending a physical, the Vayner Sports client will re-sign with the Dodgers for two years, $34MM with a $14MM team option for a third year. The deal includes an $8MM signing bonus and built-in escalators that could raise the overall value of the deal to $52MM over three years, conditional to MVP voting.

Turner returning to the Dodgers hardly counts as a surprise, though the scuttlebutt of late had pushed the narrative of a possible departure. Whether he actually came close to signing with the Brewers or another club is unclear. What we know is that Turner will return to the franchise where he made his name, became a superstar, fan favorite, and World Champion. The 36-year-old third baseman was an All-Star in 2017 and earned down-ballot MVP votes in each of 2016, 2017, and 2018. For his career, he owns a .292/.369/.469 line with 124 home runs and 29.5 bWAR.

His career famously started slow, however, as he languished through most of his twenties as a contact-first reserve infielder for the Orioles and Mets. As he arrived in Chavez Ravine, he brought with him just a .260/.323/.361 slash line over 926 career plate appearances. Perhaps most notably, he had shown almost no signs of power through his age-28 season with a meager .101 ISO.

The tale turned rapidly in LA as Turner produced a revelatory .340/.404/.493 line and 158 wRC+ in 2014, his first season with the Dodgers. The sudden uptick in potency at the plate was prompted by a swing change that he’d begun work on during his final season with the Mets, but it was only once he headed west that results populated his box scores. Turner has to this point produced 98.0 percent of his career bWAR since donning Dodger blue as a 29-year-old.

The relationship has benefited both sides, of course, as Turner has grown into a centerpiece of a dominant era of Dodger baseball. They have won the National League West every season that Turner’s been stationed at the hot corner and finally broke through to win the World Series last year – their third season as pennant winners together.

In returning, Turner is able not only to help defend their title, but to move together beyond an uncomfortable moment on the national stage that took place, unfortunately, at the crowning moment of the Turner/Dodgers partnership. Turner was pulled late in the clinching game of their World Series win because of a positive coronavirus test. Turner nonetheless returned and (often mask-less) took part in the post-game celebration.

The dilemma put upon Turner, the Dodgers, and the league was no doubt trying considering how unlikely it was that he had made it to that point. He is, after all, not only a gregarious and popular superstar on one of the league’s preeminent franchises, but he is a symbol of perseverance for the game, its young players and its fans. Nevertheless, it was an unfortunate disregard of protocols on the national stage.

Turner will now add another chapter to his Dodgers’ career. In returning to defend their title, Turner joins an arguably even-more-star-studded team than the one that defeated the Rays in six games last fall. With the addition of NL Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer to the rotation, as well as former AL Cy Young David Price, who opted out of 2020, the Dodgers boast one of the more decorated rotations in recent memory. All-time great Clayton Kershaw remains at the top with young phenom Walker Buehler. Julio Urias, who closed out the World Series, rounds out their likely starting five.

According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Dodgers’ CBT payroll now stands around $254.7MM. That means they’ve passed the base tax threshold ($210MM), the first surcharge threshold ($230MM) and the second surcharge threshold ($250MM). MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes calculates the team’s projected tax amount at about $13.8MM, but that’s only if their payroll holds at this level. The second surcharge threshold is especially steep, as any dollar spent beyond $250MM is taxed at 62.5%. Furthermore, finishing the season above $250MM also carries the penalty of the team having its highest available draft pick next year moved back by ten places. It’s plausible the Dodgers will attempt to get back under that line, perhaps by trading Joe Kelly and his $8.33MM CBT hit.

Wherever the Dodgers’ 2021 payroll lands, it’s highly likely they’ll be a tax payor of some sort, landing past that first $210MM line for the first time since 2017. Dodgers president of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman managed to get the team’s payroll south of $210MM in each of the 2018 and ’19 seasons after the club paid the luxury tax from 2013-17. The Dodgers’ actions this winter serve as a reminder that the $210MM threshold is not a salary cap, especially for a team that gets classified as a first-time CBT payor after “resetting” previously. The tax rates are higher for second and third-time payors, which is presumably why the Yankees, Astros, and Cubs seem to be trying to stay below $210MM. Why any other big market team would treat that number as a salary cap is harder to explain.

Turner tweeted news of his return himself tonight, though Jorge Castillo of the LA Times (via Twitter) chipped in with confirmation. Jeff Passan of ESPN (via Twitter) first had the deal in the $30MM range, while MLB Network’s Jon Heyman provided the specific two-years, $34MM number, and the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal added the club option for 2023 and $8MM signing bonus, as well as later specifics. Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times contributed to dollar value of the team option (via Twitter).

Athletics Re-Sign Yusmeiro Petit

By Mark Polishuk | February 19, 2021 at 11:15am CDT

Feb. 19: The A’s have officially announced the signing. Oakland opened a 40-man roster spot by placing right-hander Frankie Montas on the Covid-19 related injury list. A’s manager Bob Melvin revealed this week that Montas had tested positive for Covid-19 (link via Shayna Rubin of the San Jose Mercury News). He’s been dealing with symptoms and will be delayed in his arrival to Spring Training.

Feb. 14: The Athletics have re-signed right-hander Yusmeiro Petit to a one-year contract, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (Twitter link). The deal will be official once Petit passes a physical. MLBTR’s Steve Adams reports that Petit will earn $2.55MM in guaranteed money, with another $450K available in incentive bonuses. Petit is represented by Godoy Sports.

Petit returns for his fourth season with Oakland, a tenure that has been nothing but successful for both parties. Petit has a 2.73 ERA over 197 2/3 innings in an A’s uniform, and has been a workhorse out of the bullpen — 154 appearances in 2018-19 and then 26 appearances during the shortened 2020 season.

Petit is far from a Statcast darling and doesn’t record many strikeouts, as evidenced by his below-average K% over the last three years. However, Petit’s 4.14% walk rate over that same stretch is elite, and he doesn’t allow much hard contact. All in all, Petit has continually outperformed his peripherals; his 3.89 SIERA from 2018-20 is over a run higher than his actual ERA over his past three seasons.

Not that many free agent relievers drew a ton of attention this winter, but there wasn’t much in the way of public buzz about Petit, perhaps due to his advanced metrics and his age (36). The righty previously inked a two-year, $10MM deal with Oakland in November 2017 that ended up being a three-year, $14.5MM pact after the Athletics exercised their club option on Petit for the 2020 season.

Between Petit and new acquisitions Sergio Romo and Adam Kolarek, Oakland has suddenly added a lot of bullpen reinforcement over the last three days. Relief pitching was a major strength for the A’s in 2020 but it was a position that needed to be addressed since Liam Hendriks and Joakim Soria departed in free agency.

Mariners Sign Ken Giles

By Connor Byrne | February 18, 2021 at 3:25pm CDT

FEB. 18: It’s a two-year, $7MM guarantee, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports. Giles will earn a $1MM salary in 2021 and a $5MM salary in 2022. There’s also a $9.5MM option or a $500K buyout for 2023. Additionally, the contract features a $500K signing bonus.

FEB. 11: The Mariners are in agreement on a two-year contract with free-agent reliever Ken Giles, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Shannon Drayer of ESPN 710 first reported the news. Giles is a client of Rowley Sports Management.

Because he underwent Tommy John surgery as a member of the Blue Jays on Oct. 1, Giles will not be able to help the Mariners in 2021. However, if his recovery goes well, Giles’ history suggests he will emerge as a valuable part of the Mariners’ bullpen the next season. Giles, after all, has logged a 2.74 ERA/2.57 SIERA with well-above-average strikeout and walk rates (33.3 and 7.7 percent, respectively) across a combined 351 innings with the Phillies, Astros and Jays. The 30-year-old right-hander has also converted 115 of 130 save attempts and averaged better than 97 mph on his fastball.

Giles’ elbow issues limited him to 3 2/3 frames last year, but it would be difficult to find many relievers who were harder to face in 2019. That season, Giles threw 53 innings of 1.87 ERA/2.49 SIERA ball and ended up sixth among bullpen arms in K-BB percentage (31.7).

Brian Dozier Announces Retirement

By Steve Adams | February 18, 2021 at 3:04pm CDT

Former All-Star second baseman Brian Dozier announced on Thursday that he’s retiring after a nine-year career in the Majors and at the age of 33.

An eighth-round pick by the Twins back in 2009, Dozier was never considered a premium prospect even within his own organization, topping out as Baseball America’s No. 10 Twins prospect heading into the 2012 season. That didn’t stop the University of Southern Mississippi product from not only making it to the big leagues but to cementing himself as one of the club’s better players of the past decade.

After an inauspicious debut in 2012, Dozier claimed the everyday second base job at Target Field in 2013 and steadily improved his output at the plate over the next several years. In a brief but excellent peak from 2013-17, Dozier was one of the game’s best all-around second basemen, hitting at a .252/.333/.465 clip with 145 home runs, 81 stolen bases and solid defense. Along the way, he won a Gold Glove, made an All-Star team and took home MVP votes in three different seasons. Dozier was worth about 22 wins above replacement in that five-year stretch according to both the Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs versions of the metric.

Unfortunately for both the Twins and for Dozier, he sustained a knee injury early in the 2018 campaign that severely hampered him at the plate. He was traded to the Dodgers that summer and struggled badly down the stretch — hardly the platform any player would want for his first trip to free agency.

Dozier landed a one-year, $9MM deal with the Nationals that winter and served as the club’s primary second baseman for most of the year. In many ways, Dozier enjoyed a rebound campaign, posting a .238/.340/.430 output with 20 homers and 20 doubles alike. His playing time faded late in the year, however, as hot-hitting trade acquisition Asdrubal Cabrera saw more and more of the playing time at second base. Dozier kept his spot on the Nationals’ postseason roster and was hailed as a vital presence in the clubhouse, but he tallied just seven plate appearances during the club’s World Series run.

Dozier signed a minor league deal with the Padres prior to the 2020 season before requesting his release and turning up for a brief seven-game stint with the Mets. That proved to be the final act of Dozier’s career.

All in all, Dozier will head into retirement as a career .244/.325/.441 hitter with 192 home runs, 231 doubles, 21 triples, 105 steals, 664 runs scored and 581 runs driven in. He made an All-Star team, won a Gold Glove, and in his final full season took home a World Series ring for his role in the Nationals’ improbable Cinderella run. Dozier cleared $30MM in salary during a career that Baseball-Reference pegged at 22.7 WAR and FanGraphs valued at 23.7 WAR. Best wishes to Dozier on the next chapter.

Mariners Sign James Paxton

By TC Zencka | February 18, 2021 at 1:30pm CDT

Feb. 18: The Mariners have formally announced their one-year deal with Paxton. Right-hander Andres Munoz, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery, was placed on the 60-day IL to open a roster spot.

Feb. 13: The Seattle Mariners have an agreement in place with James Paxton, per Chad Dey of Sportsnet650 (via Twitter). The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal confirms the deal. Paxton will make $8.5MM on a one-year deal with bonuses upping the potential value to $10MM, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan (via Twitter). “Big Maple” will earn an additional $750K with 10 games and $750K at 20 games, adds MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. Paxton is represented by the Boras Corporation.

By signing for just one season, Paxton will have the opportunity to prove his good health and return to the open market. It’s no small thing that he’ll get to do so in an environment where he’s comfortable, having made T-Mobile Park his home from 2013 to 2018. Assuming good health, Paxton should have no trouble reaching those performance incentives to make this contract a clean $10MM.

Health hasn’t always been Paxton’s strong suit, of course. Before missing most of 2020 with a left flexor strain, Paxton spent time on the injured list with knee inflammation, left forearm contusions twice, lower back inflammation, a strained pectoral muscle, a left elbow contusion, a strained tendon in his middle finger, as well as twice hitting the shelf in 2014 with a left Latissimus dorsi muscle strain (read: back). He made just five starts for the Yankees this season after 29, 28, 24, and 20 the four years prior. Despite the litany of ailments, Paxton had largely persevered before missing most of 2020.

It’s worth mentioning, the Mariners have been clear about their intentions to run out a six-man rotation in 2021. Still, a healthy season would get Paxton well past the 20 games threshold, and the additional time between starts is more likely to help Paxton make it to 20 games than hurt. The 32-year-old will slot near the top of the Mariners’ rotation along with fellow southpaws Marco Gonzales, Yusei Kikuchi, and Justus Sheffield. Right-handers Chris Flexen and Justin Dunn are expected to round out the six-man crew.

For the Mariners, the deal has little downside. Seattle still has a payroll under $100MM and their long-term flexibility intact. Meanwhile, they get to return Paxton to the team that drafted him in the fourth round of the 2010 draft. He made 102 starts over six seasons for the Mariners, earning himself a reputation as a starter with frontline potential by way of a 3.58 ERA/3.13 FIP over 582 1/3 innings to that point. The Mariners dealt him to the Yankees following the 2018 season for Dom Thompson-Williams, Erik Swanson, and Sheffield. The Mariners will now enjoy at least one season of Paxton and Sheffield in the rotation together.

On the diamond, Paxton has the potential to move the needle for the Mariners. Limited to just 20 1/3 inning in 2020, Paxton entered free agency on the heels of an uninspiring 6.64 ERA. His 90.7 mph opponents’ exit velocity was a career-high, and his average heater dipped by about three miles per hour. A 32.1 percent groundball rate continued a two-year spike in flyball rate, which led to more home runs allowed in the Bronx. Prior to joining the Yankees, however, Paxton had a 44.7 percent groundball rate.

Many of Paxton’s other metrics, however, were more bullish. He registered a 4.37 FIP/3.88 SIERA, typically-strong 28.9 percent strikeout rate and a 7.8 percent walk rate that was better than the league average of 9.2 percent. At this price point, betting on a return to his career norms is a reasonable gamble for the M’s, who continue to position themselves as a potential sleeper in a year when the AL West looks more wide open than ever.

J.T. Realmuto Suffers Fractured Thumb

By Steve Adams | February 18, 2021 at 1:06pm CDT

The Phillies kicked off Spring Training with some brutal news for fans. Star catcher J.T. Realmuto recently sustained a small fracture in his right thumb, manager Joe Girardi announced to reporters (Twitter link via MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki). The injury occurred six days ago when catching a bullpen session, tweets Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia.

Realmuto’s thumb will be immobilized for the next two weeks, and while the Phils are hopeful he’ll be ready for Opening Day, there’s no guarantee that’ll be the case. It’s certainly not the way the team or Realmuto hoped to kick off his newly inked five-year, $115.5MM contract.

Realmuto will be reevaluated after that immobilization period, at which point the club will have a better timeline for his return to games. If Realmuto is forced onto the injured list to begin the season, the Phillies would likely turn to Andrew Knapp as the primary catcher in his absence. Rafael Marchan could get a look as the backup role in that scenario, given that he’s already on the 40-man roster. If not Marchan, one of Jeff Mathis or Christian Bethancourt could get the nod. Both would need to be added to the 40-man roster, however, as they’re in Spring Training as non-roster invitees at the moment.

Padres Sign Mark Melancon

By Steve Adams | February 18, 2021 at 9:09am CDT

Feb. 18: The Padres have announced the signing. Mike Clevinger was placed on the 60-day injured list to open a spot on the 40-man roster. Clevinger, of course, is expected to miss the 2021 season following Tommy John surgery.

Feb. 17: Melancon will be guaranteed $3MM on the deal, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. He’ll earn a $2MM salary in 2021, and there’s a $1MM buyout on a a mutual option for the 2022 season, Heyman adds. The contract allows Melancon to earn another $2MM via incentives.

Feb. 12: The Padres have agreed to a deal with free-agent reliever Mark Melancon, reports Dennis Lin of The Athletic (Twitter link). The deal with Melancon, an ISE Baseball client, will become official once he’s passed a physical.

Melancon, 36 next month, adds a former All-Star closer to an already deep Friars bullpen. He’ll give skipper Jayce Tingler another option for ninth-inning work, joining Drew Pomeranz and Emilio Pagan as closer candidates in San Diego. Based on his recent work, Melancon could well jump to the front of the line as the favorite for saves.

Melancon just finished up the final season of a four-year, $62MM contract that briefly stood as the all-time record for a reliever. (Both Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen topped that mark within weeks of Melancon signing.) The deal didn’t exactly pay dividends for the Giants, as Melancon battled injuries in both 2017 and 2018, but he bounced back with a strong showing in 2019 and was quite strong over the past season-plus following a trade to the Braves.

Melancon pitched 43 2/3 innings with Atlanta, racking up 22 saves while posting strong strikeout and walk percentages (26.3 percent and 6.2 percent, respectively). He’s also one of the game’s leading ground-ball pitchers, evidenced by a whopping 61.4 percent mark over the past two years.

Despite the success in Atlanta, there are some red flags surrounding Melancon. In addition to the fact that he’ll pitch all of 2021 at age 36, last year’s 91.7 mph average fastball represented the second-lowest mark of his career while his 8.7 percent swinging-strike rate was a career-low. He still excelled at inducing weak contact and ought to benefit from a generally strong defensive infield defense, though.

The Friars already had not only a crowded but also relatively immobile bullpen (from a roster flexibility standpoint). None of Pomeranz, Austin Adams, Pierce Johnson, Dan Altavilla, Craig Stammen or Javy Guerra can be optioned to the minors. Pagan has options but surely isn’t in danger of being sent down, and Tim Hill (who also has options) is one of the team’s three lefties. It could be tough for the Padres to continue carrying the out-of-options Guerra, a converted shortstop who has yet to find much success in Triple-A or the Majors, but they may not want to give up on him considering his heater averages better than 98 mph.

Those, of course, are the types of decisions that playoff-caliber clubs are forced to make when adding improvements, and the Padres have solidified themselves as just that. After making the postseason for the first time under newly promoted president of baseball operations A.J. Preller in 2020, the Padres have added the likes of Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Joe Musgrove and KBO superstar Ha-Seong Kim this winter while also re-signing Jurickson Profar. Melancon is the latest, and perhaps the final, piece of an active offseason that has deepened an already-talented team which looks increasingly capable of giving the World Champion Dodgers a run for their money in the NL West.

Cubs Sign Jake Arrieta

By Connor Byrne and Steve Adams | February 17, 2021 at 11:27am CDT

It’s reunion season in Chicago. The Cubs on Wednesday announced that they’ve signed right-hander Jake Arrieta to a one-year contract with a mutual option for a second season. Arrieta, a Boras Corporation client, is reportedly guaranteed $6MM, which will be paid out in the form of a $4MM salary in 2021 and a $2MM buyout on next year’s $10MM option. He can also earn a $250K bonus for reaching each of 150, 160, 170 and 180 innings.

Arrieta, who struggled at the beginning of his career as an Oriole, joined the Cubs alongside Pedro Strop in a franchise-altering trade in 2013 and was an enormous success with the team through 2017. He earned a Cy Young (2015) and a World Series title (2016) as a Cub, and he also recorded a sterling 2.73 ERA/3.49 SIERA across 803 regular-season innings with the team.

The Cubs were in touch with Arrieta throughout his free agency, but they moved in a different direction, signing right-hander Yu Darvish to a six-year contract while Arrieta was still looking for a new team. Arrieta’s return to the Cubs, somewhat coincidentally, comes as the team is looking to make up some of the innings lost when dumping the remainder of Darvish’s salary in a trade with the Padres.

The Phillies may not have been expecting another Cy Young out of Arrieta when they signed him to a three-year, $75MM deal with a multi-season option, but they surely hoped to be getting an above-average starter. That, of course, did not prove to be the case.

While Arrieta had a respectable debut campaign with the Phils, his 2019 and 2020 seasons were marred by injuries, resulting in his worst performance since breaking out with the Cubs in the first place. Overall, Arrieta threw 352 2/3 innings with the Phillies in that three-year term, logging a disappointing 4.36 ERA/4.57 SIERA that was more indicative of a back-of-the-rotation arm than a difference-maker at the top of the staff.

Because of his mediocre performance and health issues in Philadelphia, Arrieta had no chance to rake in another high-paying contract this offseason. But the soon-to-be 35-year-old should earn plenty of starts now that he is back with the Cubs, who have just two proven options ahead of him in Kyle Hendricks and Zach Davies. Alec Mills, Trevor Williams and Adbert Alzolay look like the most realistic candidates to pitch out of the Cubs’ rotation, and they’ll probably all get their share of innings. Like most teams, the Cubs will likely cycle through a wide array of starting pitching options as they look to ease their staff’s transition from last year’s shortened 60-game slate back to a full 162-game workload.

Arrieta becomes the latest modestly priced free-agent addition of a 2020-21 offseason that has seen the Cubs add several new players without concretely improving. Ownership clearly wanted to scale back the payroll, hence the trades of Darvish and Victor Caratini and the non-tenders of Kyle Schwarber and Albert Almora. The front office, under newly promoted president of baseball ops Jed Hoyer, has signed Arrieta, Joc Pederson, Andrew Chafin, Williams and Jake Marisnick since a report that owner Tom Ricketts gave the green light for a “slight” payroll increase.

In addition to that group, the Cubs also picked up Davies in return for Darvish. They’ve certainly created the possibility that this wider base of talent could outperform the players they’re more or less replacing, and if it works out that way, Hoyer & Co. will receive plenty of praise for threading the needle between creating future flexibility and fielding a winning product.

That said, it’s also a risk-laden group with several players in need of bounceback campaigns. The Cubs aren’t clearly better than they were with Darvish, Schwarber, Caratini and a higher payroll and are arguably quite a bit worse. If this group struggles, the 2020-21 offseason will be widely viewed as a missed opportunity, given that only one team (the Cardinals) made any clear upgrades in what should’ve been a wide-open race for the division title.

MLB Network’s Jon Heyman first reported the two sides were close to a deal. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal added that it’d be a one-year term. Robert Murray of Fansided tweeted that a deal was in place, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale provided financial details (Twitter links).

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