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Steven Wright Suspended 80 Games For PED Violation

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Red Sox right-hander Steven Wright has been suspended 80 games, without pay, after testing positive for Growth Hormone Releasing Peptide 2 (GHRP-2), the league announced Wednesday. He’ll be placed on the restricted list — thus freeing a 40-man roster spot for the Red Sox — and miss the first half of the season. Wright will also be ineligible to participate in the 2019 postseason. The Red Sox organization has issued the following statement:

The Boston Red Sox fully support Major League Baseball’s Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Program and its efforts to eliminate performance-enhancing substances from the game. While we are disappointed by the news of this violation, we will look to provide the appropriate support to Steven at this time. Going forward, the club will not comment further on the matter.

This’ll be the second straight season in which Wright will be suspended for off-field actions, as he served a 15-game suspension under the league’s domestic abuse policy in 2018, as well. MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo tweets that Wright tested positive in the offseason and appealed the suspension, though he only learned the result of his appeal last night.

Wright agreed to a $1.375MM salary for the 2019 campaign this winter, avoiding arbitration, and will forfeit approximately half of that sum as a result of the PED infraction. As is the case in virtually every PED suspension, Wright issued a statement via the MLBPA expressing bewilderment and claiming that he’s “never intentionally ingested anything for performance-enhancing purposes.”

The loss of Wright will further thin out a Red Sox bullpen that has already lost Joe Kelly to the Dodgers via free agency (three years, $25MM) and seems quite likely to go without yet-unsigned free agent Craig Kimbrel as well. Wright, a knuckleballer, worked to a stellar 2.68 ERA with 7.0 K/9 against 4.4 BB/9 in 53 2/3 innings of relief last season, though his season was shortened not only by the aforementioned domestic violence suspension but also a pair of DL stints pertaining to inflammation in his left knee.

Wright’s suspension will nominally nudge the Red Sox a bit further from the top luxury tax line — though by nowhere near enough that it’d prompt the team to make a significant bullpen expenditure. Boston sat roughly $4.7MM south of that $246MM barrier, so Wright’s suspension will push the team closer to $5.4MM shy of the top penalty bracket. Factoring in the tax they were paying on that salary, the suspension will cut about $980K, although they’ll of course have to replace Wright in the ’pen in some capacity — likely with a league-minimum earner.

Rangers Extend Jose Leclerc

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The Rangers have struck an extension with reliever Jose Leclerc, as first reported by Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. Leclerc, who is represented by Munger English Sports Management, receives a $14.75MM guarantee over a four-year term. The Rangers will have a pair of options valued at $6MM (2023) and $6.25MM (2024).

Leclerc, 25, was still one season away from reaching arbitration eligibility, so this contract will provide him with no shortage of additional financial security. The organization, in turn, will lock in cost savings and certainty for a pitcher whose prospective earnings could have risen substantially with an ongoing accumulation of saves.

The new contract covers the 2019 season along with Leclerc’s three prospective arbitration-eligible campaigns. He’ll receive a $2MM signing bonus, followed by $1MM, $2.25MM, $4MM and $4.75MM salaries. There’s a $750K buyout on the club option years, which cover Leclerc’s first two potential free-agent seasons (the hurler’s age-29 and 30 seasons).

This deal comes on the heels of a breakout 2018 campaign in which Leclerc took over the Rangers closer’s role and established himself as one of the game’s most exciting young relievers. He ultimately worked to a 1.56 ERA in 57 2/3 innings with 13.3 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9.

Leclerc’s offerings — a mid-nineties heater and splitter, primarily — have always been tough to square up. In his first two looks at the big leagues, though, Leclerc did not command them. He dished out a whopping 53 free passes in his first 60 2/3 MLB innings.

Last year, Leclerc nearly halved his walk rate (from nearly twenty percent to 11.2%) while retaining his elusiveness. MLB hitters struggled badly in all respects. Leclerc maintained an excellent 17.1% swinging-strike rate, surrendered only 3.7 hits per nine, and allowed only a single long ball on the year. He was a Statcast darling, placing among the league leaders in wOBA-against (.205), xwOBA-against (.210), exit velocity (83.7 mph), and hard-hit percentage (20.0%).

There aren’t many comparable extensions for early-career relief pitchers — in large part because teams rarely feel compelled to commit future money to such players. In fact, among contracts documented in MLBTR’s Extension Tracker, this is actually only the second-ever deal that expanded a team’s control rights over a relief pitcher with more than two years of MLB service but not enough to qualify for Super Two status. Way back in 2011, the White Sox inked a three-year deal with Sergio Santos that promised him $8.25MM and came with three option years. His option seasons were valued at $6MM, $8MM, and $8.75MM, so there was a bit more overall earning power in that pact.

A pair of deal with two exceptional southpaw hurlers are also worth noting as comps. As a Super Two reliever, Felipe Vazquez secured $22MM in promised money while giving the Pirates control over two additional campaigns at $10MM each. That contract covered a similar arb/free agent span as Leclerc’s, but Vazquez had already reached arbitration eligibility — meaning his downside was protected because he was set to receive a significant salary and had established a high starting point for his arb years.

Before that, back in 2014, Sean Doolittle and the Athletics agreed to a deal that looks like the closest comp to Leclerc’s. At the time, Doolittle was one season away from highly likely Super Two qualification. He was promised $10.5MM, which boosted up to $13.5MM when he ultimately did have enough service time to join the Super Two class. That agreement came with $6MM and $6.5MM options. Doolittle was much older than Leclerc, presented a notable health risk, and was a season further away from free agency, though he was also arguably a higher-floor pitcher from a performance standpoint. As with Leclerc’s contract, the Doolittle deal bought out all of the seasons that were already under the club’s control (five in the A’s case) and did so at a point when the player was still a full season removed from arbitration eligibility. In each case, the team’s willingness to pay up was surely due to a combination of two overriding factors: first, a fear of run-away arb salaries; second, the rights to a pair of highly affordable option years.

While Leclerc’s contract doesn’t seem to break new ground, then, it’s still a nice deal for a player who did not originally sign for big money and has only earned at the league minimum to this stage of his career. Few relievers achieve this kind of contract precisely because the earning outlook is so uncertain — especially before reaching arbitration. Leclerc could well turn into a 40-save monster who would substantially out-earn his new deal. But he’s just one injury or a creeping command problem away from missing out on save opportunities and entering arbitration with fairly meager statistical record to work with.

Grant (Twitter links), MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan (in a tweet), Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link), and Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram (via Twitter) reported the contract terms.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salvador Perez To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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A second opinion on the right elbow of Salvador Perez has confirmed the Royals’ worst fears: Perez will undergo Tommy John surgery tomorrow, the team told reporters (Twitter link via Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star). The surgery should put Perez on the shelf for the entirety of the 2019 season.

The Royals first announced that Perez had damage to the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow last Friday. The initial recommendation for Perez was Tommy John surgery, though the team first sought a second opinion from renowned surgeon Dr. Neal ElAttrache before scheduling the procedure.

Perez, 28, is earning $10MM in 2019 as part of a $52.5MM contract extension to which he agreed prior to the 2016 season. He’s also owed $13MM in both the 2020 and 2021 seasons as part of that long-term arrangement.

A six-time All-Star, five-time Gold Glove winner, two-time Silver Slugger winner and the MVP of the 2015 World Series, Perez has emerged as the face of the Royals’ franchise in recent seasons. Though Kansas City has embarked on a substantial rebuilding effort following its run of prominence (including consecutive World Series appearances in 2014-15), there’s never been any serious indication that the club would give thought to moving Perez.

With Perez on the shelf, the top catchers on the Royals’ depth chart at present are Cam Gallagher and Meibrys Viloria — the former of whom is a .218/.274/.333 hitter in 96 MLB plate appearances and the latter of whom has all of 29 MLB plate appearances. Viloria, in fact, jumped from Class-A Advanced to the Majors last season as a September call-up but still seems years away from legitimate MLB readiness.

Suffice it to say, it’d register as a surprise if the Royals didn’t look to address their catching situation in some fashion following the unwelcome news. Martin Maldonado is the most obvious and straightforward choice: a premier defensive backstop with nearly 2000 Major League plate appearances under his belt who (surprisingly) still remains unsigned. Maldonado was most recently connected to the Mariners, though at the time of that report, Seattle was still wary of giving him a guaranteed 40-man roster spot. Light-hitting as Maldonado may be (.220/.289/.350 in his career), it’s still jarring that a player with his defensive prowess has struggled to find a 40-man spot this winter. The Royals, it now seems, can not only provide that but could also provide a fair bit of playing time as well.

Beyond Maldonado, there’s little in terms of proven assets on the open market, though the Royals could certainly wait until later in Spring Training to see if a veteran on a minor league pact with another club opts out of his deal. Veterans such as Nick Hundley (Athletics), Rene Rivera (Giants), Stephen Vogt (Giants), Matt Wieters (Cardinals), Devin Mesoraco (Mets) and old friend Drew Butera (Phillies) are all in Major League camps as non-roster invitees — but not all will earn a roster spot with his current organization. Alternatively, the Royals could also look to the trade market or waiver wire late in camp as a means of acquiring some additional depth. Notably, the Red Sox have reportedly been exploring deals involving their trio of backstops (Christian Vazquez, Sandy Leon and Blake Swihart).

2019-20 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings

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We’ll have 2019 Major League Baseball about two weeks from now, perhaps with Oakland’s Mike Fiers throwing the season’s first pitch to Seattle’s Mallex Smith in Tokyo.  Though Dallas Keuchel, Craig Kimbrel, and others remain unsigned, I’m going to begin our monthly look ahead at the 2019-20 MLB free agent class.  These players are on track to become free agents after the 2019 season.

As you can see in MLBTR’s Extension Tracker, we had three notable would-be free agents come off the board in February: Nolan Arenado, Miles Mikolas, and Aaron Hicks.  I feel that Arenado and Mikolas did about as well as they would have in free agency, while it’s possible Hicks’ deal reflects some trepidation toward the backwards trend in dollars per WAR that teams have instituted the last two winters.  There’s a good chance some of the projected free agents listed here will also forgo the open market if a reasonable contract offer is presented.  As always, these players are ranked by my estimate of their 2019-20 open market earning power.

1.  Xander Bogaerts.  I didn’t begin this exercise expecting Bogaerts to top the list, but if he manages another five win season as Boston’s shortstop, his youth could result in the winter’s longest contract.  Bogaerts, a client of the Boras Corporation, won’t turn 27 until October.  He’s gone year-to-year throughout his career after signing out of Aruba for $410K in 2009.  Bogaerts has now banked over $25MM in his career.  He’s coming off his finest season yet, posting a 133 wRC+ that was second only to Manny Machado among qualified shortstops.  Bogaerts’ defense has long rated as a plus.  While I don’t expect Bogaerts to approach the $300MM contract Machado received, I do think he’ll join the $200MM club with a strong 2019 season.

2.  Chris Sale.  Bogaerts’ teammate Chris Sale has placed top six in the AL Cy Young voting for the last seven years.  The lefty joined the Red Sox in a December 2016 blockbuster trade with the White Sox.  Sale’s dominance has continued in Boston, though he was limited to 158 regular season innings in 2018 due to two DL stints for shoulder inflammation.  Sale’s earning power in free agency will depend on his health this season.  Six years ago, Sale signed a contract extension with the White Sox that has provided tremendous surplus value to both of his clubs.  While it had been standard practice for top free agent starters to be paid through age 36 – see Jon Lester, Max Scherzer, David Price, and Yu Darvish (and Zack Greinke, who was paid through 37), the old way of doing things in free agency may no longer apply.  So Sale, 30 this month, will likely seek a six-year contract, though he could have trouble getting there unless one team gets irrational or he accepts a reduced average annual value to max out the guarantee.  In the best case, Sale could inch his way past Greinke’s six-year, $206.5MM deal, since Sale will be more than 17 months younger than Greinke was when he reached his historic pact.

3.  Gerrit Cole.  Cole, another Boras client, was drafted by the Yankees out of high school in the first round in 2008.  Cole’s signability changed after the draft, and his family requested that the Yankees not even make an offer.  After three years at UCLA, Cole was drafted first overall by the Pirates.  He was generally solid for the Pirates, including one great season in 2015, before they traded him to the Astros in January 2018.  Cole posted the best season of his career in his first season as an Astro.  Including his record draft bonus, Cole has earned over $33MM in his MLB career on the year-to-year plan.  With another comparable campaign, he’ll be fishing for the seven-year deal signed by Price, Scherzer, and Stephen Strasburg.  This would only take Cole through his age 35 season – a reasonable length even in this day and age.  Price’s seven-year, $217MM deal will be four years old when Cole reaches free agency.  My guess is that Cole will fall short of that level but will still sign one of the five largest pitching contracts in baseball history.

4.  Anthony Rendon.  The Nationals let Harper defect to the Phillies on a record $330MM contract, but that might pave the way for a deal with yet another Boras client, Rendon.  Rendon has quietly amassed 13 WAR over the last two seasons, sixth in all of baseball for position players.  The Nationals’ third baseman combines stellar defense with a 140 wRC+ bat, and the result is that he’s every bit as valuable as Harper or Machado right now.  Rendon turns 29 in June, and he’s amassed about $47MM already in his MLB career.  It’s been rare lately that any top position player gets paid past age 35, as Machado and Eric Hosmer did, and many such as Nolan Arenado, Jose Altuve, J.D. Martinez, Justin Upton, and Yoenis Cespedes were only paid through 34.  We’ll put Harper aside, as only drastically reducing his average annual value allowed for him to be paid through age 38.  This is my way of saying I think Rendon is looking at a six-year deal in the best case.  Back in January, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote that Rendon was seeking a contract comparable to Altuve, in his extension talks with the Nationals.  That deal was essentially $151MM over five years, though things have gotten worse for free agents in the year since then.  Also since then was Arenado’s seven-year, $234MM extension with the Rockies, notable mainly for its $33.4MM AAV.  Rendon would certainly be within his rights to seek $30-33MM per year in his ongoing extension talks with the Nationals, which may continue into the season.

5.  Paul Goldschmidt.  Goldschmidt starred for the Diamondbacks for eight years until last December’s trade to St. Louis.  Goldy inked what became a club-friendly six-year contract back in 2013.  So on the one hand, the slugging first baseman has banked $45MM in his MLB career.  On the other hand, he’ll turn 32 in advance of his next contract.  These days, that probably caps him at a four-year deal unless he takes a light AAV.  The Cardinals clearly would like to make Goldschmidt, a client of Excel Sports Management, more than a rental.

6.  Zack Wheeler.  Wheeler, 29 in May, posted the best season of his career in 2018.  The righty was drafted sixth overall out of high school by the Giants in 2009 and was traded to the Mets for Carlos Beltran in 2011.  He made his MLB debut in 2013 and did solid work before going down for March 2015 Tommy John surgery.  Wheeler ended up going two and a half years between MLB starts, nearly getting traded to Milwaukee in the interim.  That Wheeler failed to return to the Mets in 2016 served as a reminder that Tommy John recovery is not always seamless.  Wheeler’s 2017 season was abbreviated due to a stress fracture in his arm, and he actually began the 2018 season in the minors.  Wheeler, one of the hardest-throwing starting pitchers in the game, just kept getting better in the 2018 season.  He finished with a 2.06 ERA in his final 15 starts.  An encore performance could make Wheeler a sleeper Cy Young candidate, but it’s all about stringing together a second consecutive healthy season for the first time in his career.  His ceiling would likely be a five-year deal taking him through age 34, the age through which Miles Mikolas, Jordan Zimmermann, Jake Arrieta, and Patrick Corbin were signed.  Both Wheeler and Chris Sale are represented by Jet Sports Management.

7.  J.D. Martinez.  Martinez, 32 in August, has been the second-best hitter in baseball over the last two seasons by measure of wRC+.  Though he’s able to play the outfield, he’s best-served as a designated hitter.  Martinez signed a five-year, $110MM deal with the Red Sox in late February last year, but the Boras client has the chance to opt out of the 2019 or 2020 seasons.  Given the way Martinez has been hitting, it stands to reason that even in this free agent climate, he will stand a good chance at topping the three years and $62.5MM he’ll have remaining on his contract after 2019.  Since he’d probably only be looking at a four-year deal this time around, it’s possible the Red Sox could simply tack on one more year to his current deal.

8.  Didi Gregorius.  Gregorius, 29, was signed by the Reds out of Curacao for $50K back in 2007.  A pair of three-team trades eventually led him to the Yankees’ shortstop job in 2015, with the near-impossible task of succeeding Derek Jeter.  Gregorius’ bat steadily improved over his four seasons with the Yankees.  Combined with strong defense, he’s totaled 8.7 WAR over the past two seasons – on par with Machado and Bogaerts.  However, Gregorius went down for Tommy John surgery in October.  He could return anywhere from June to August, complicating his free agency picture.  Both Gregorius and the Yankees seem open to an extension, and the club did just prevent Aaron Hicks from exploring free agency by giving him a seven-year, $70MM deal.  Like Goldschmidt, Gregorius is represented by Excel Sports Management.

9.  Justin Verlander.  Verlander, 36, finished second in the AL Cy Young voting last year, in a dominant season that was every bit as good as his Cy/MVP 2011 campaign for the Tigers.  He’s a likely Hall of Famer and is one of the game’s best starting pitchers currently.  When it comes to the topic of Verlander’s free agency, it’s difficult to ignore his age.  I have to think it caps him at a three-year deal, albeit with a premium AAV in the $30MM range.  The Astros have difficult decisions on the horizon regarding their pair of aces.  Verlander is represented by ISE Baseball.

10.  Madison Bumgarner.  Like Verlander, Bumgarner was an ace for an extended period of time.  But with the Giants’ lefty, it remains to be seen what his second act will look like.  An April 2017 dirt bike accident caused injuries to Bumgarner’s ribs and shoulder, limiting him to 17 starts that year.  Then in March of last year, the pitcher’s left hand was fractured during a Spring Training game, delaying his season debut until June.  Upon his return, he wasn’t quite the Bumgarner of old, with his strikeout and walk rates going in the wrong direction.  Still, Bumgarner doesn’t turn 30 until August, and by then we should know whether his 2018 season was a blip on the radar or the start of a trend.  His contract, which will be negotiated by The Legacy Agency, will depend on that question.

Honorable mentions: Marcell Ozuna, Yasiel Puig, Rick Porcello, Nick Castellanos, Josh Donaldson, Yasmani Grandal, Khris Davis, Scooter Gennett

Note: I’m currently operating under the assumption that club options for Corey Kluber, Anthony Rizzo, Jose Quintana, Chris Archer, Starling Marte, and Matt Carpenter will be exercised after the season, and that Stephen Strasburg and Yu Darvish will not opt out of their contracts.

Angels Have Considered Offering 10 Years, $350MM To Mike Trout

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With Mike Trout down to his penultimate season of team control, the Angels have recently considered offering the center fielder a record-breaking contract – a $350MM extension over 10 years – though it’s unclear if they’ve actually proposed it, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription required). Per Rosenthal, the accord would run from 2021-30, Trout’s age-29 to 38 seasons, meaning the future Hall of Famer would finish out the remaining two years and $66.5MM on his current contract before the extension would take effect.

A $350MM guarantee would be the highest in the history of baseball, quickly unseating the $330MM pact Phillies outfielder Bryce Harper received this week. It would also set a new high-water mark for average annual value at $35MM, defeating Diamondbacks right-hander Zack Greinke’s $34.4MM per year. Still, as Rosenthal rightly observes, neither number appears adequate for Trout – a seven-time All-Star and two-time American League MVP who, at age 27, is already one of the greatest players in the history of the game.  Since his first full season in 2012, Trout has posted a ridiculous 64.0 fWAR, just over 27 wins more than second-place man Josh Donaldson, while easily leading the majors in wRC+ (174, 17 percent better than runner-up Joey Votto) and slashing .310/.420/.579 with 235 home runs and 185 stolen bases across 4,538 plate appearances.

Just as Trout has lapped his competition on the diamond, he’s on track to do the same on his forthcoming deal – whether he signs an extension in the next two years or reaches free agency after 2020. Harper, the Padres’ Manny Machado (10 years, $300MM) and the Rockies’ Nolan Arenado (eight years, $260MM) have each signed enormous contracts in recent weeks, but as superb as they’ve been, their careers pale in comparison to Trout’s.

Since he first graced the majors in 2011, Trout has produced nearly $500MM in on-field value, according to FanGraphs. Trout has a case to aim for that figure (or $400MM-plus at minimum) on his next contract, but it doesn’t seem he’s in any rush to determine his long-term future just yet, having already achieved financial security when he landed a $144.5MM extension back in March 2014. When asked Friday if he’d be open to discussing a second extension with the Angels this spring, Trout didn’t slam the door shut, but he did suggest he’s more worried about readying himself for the regular season.

If Trout holds off on an extension, the Angels’ performance as a team this season could impact whether he’ll be open to discussions next winter. Trout “desperately” wants to win and has done everything in his power to carry the Angels to glory, but they’ve been startlingly inept despite his presence. Through the first seven full campaigns of Trout’s career, the Angels have earned just one playoff berth and haven’t even won a single postseason game. They’re now mired in a four-year playoff drought and haven’t finished above .500 since 2015.

Blue Jays To Sign Clay Buchholz

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Mar. 2: Sportsnet Canada’s Ben Nicholson-Smith reports that Buchholz’s deal will be of the MLB variety when complete.

Feb. 28: MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that the Buchholz deal, if finalized, would pay him “about” $3MM and contain another $3MM worth of incentives. Notably, the agreement is still pending a physical.

Feb. 28: The Blue Jays are set to sign right-hander Clay Buchholz, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (via Twitter). The ISE Baseball client will be the second pickup of the past couple hours for Toronto, as the Jays quite recently agreed to terms with righty Bud Norris on a minor league pact as well.

Clay Buchholz | Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

Buchholz, 34, opened the 2018 season with the Royals’ Triple-A affiliate, and Kansas City’s decision to cut him loose on May 1 proved to be a substantial misstep. The longtime Red Sox hurler caught on with the Diamondbacks, where he was a familiar face for GM Mike Hazen and several Arizona staffers who cut their teeth in the Boston organization. The Royals’ loss was the D-backs’ gain, as Buchholz turned in a masterful 2.01 ERA with 7.4 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 0.82 HR/9 and a 42.6 percent grounder rate in 98 1/3 innings out of the Arizona rotation.

To be fair, Buchholz benefited from an unsustainable 86.6 percent strand rate and also had good fortune on balls in play (.255 BABIP), but virtually any metric pegged him as a resurgent, MLB-caliber rotation piece in his time with the Snakes (3.47 FIP, 4.01 xFIP, 4.08 SIERA). The veteran hurler looked to be well on his way to positioning himself as a solid candidate for a big league deal this winter, but as has happened to Buchholz on so many occasions in the past, his arm didn’t hold up through season’s end. The Diamondbacks announced in mid-September that a flexor mass strain in Buchholz’s right arm had preemptively ended his season.

Following that injury, it was a quiet offseason for Buchholz. Though he said at the time of the injury that he expected to be ready to pitch in Spring Training, there’s been nary a word on the status of his recovery from that injury. Presumably, the Jays will have an update on Buchholz’s health if and when the reported agreement between the two sides is formally announced by the team. At this juncture of the offseason, a minor league pact seems likely, though one could certainly argue that Buchholz’s 2018 performance merits a guaranteed spot on the 40-man roster.

Buchholz will give the Jays some rotation depth, adding to a group that already features Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez, Ryan Borucki, Matt Shoemaker and Clayton Richard. It’s not clear right now whose spot Buchholz would be overtaking were he to crack the Opening Day rotation, though Sanchez and Stroman are locks to occupy spots, health permitting, and Shoemaker seems likely to do so as well.

Phillies Sign Bryce Harper

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TODAY: The deal is official, as per a simple tweet from the Phillies’ Twitter feed stating “We got him.”

THURSDAY, 7:23pm: Harper will receive a $10MM salary and a $20MM signing bonus for the upcoming season, tweets Heyman. He’ll then be paid $26MM annually from 2020-28 and $22MM annually from 2029-31.

1:51pm: The Phillies and star outfielder Bryce Harper have made quite the commitment to one another, according to reports. The sides have agreed in principle to a 13-year, $330MM deal that puts Harper in Philadelphia through his age-38 season.

Unlike virtually all recent mega-contracts, this one comes without caveats. Harper gets full no-trade rights and does not possess any opt-out opportunities. The contract won’t come with deferrals, though it is said to have a front-loaded structure.

The end to Harper’s drawn-out free agency seemed to come suddenly. It may be that the Phillies finally met his asking price after late-breaking interest from the Dodgers and Giants.

When the dust settled, Harper had landed the biggest contract in MLB history. He just tops the $325MM guarantee the Marlins gave Giancarlo Stanton over a 13-year term, though it’s important to note that deal came in an extension scenario.

In taking the largest overall contract, Harper did make a clear sacrifice on average annual value. He’ll earn just over $25MM per season annually, well under the $30MM average commanded recently by Manny Machado in his deal with the Padres and $33.4MM promised in the seven new seasons covered by Nolan Arenado’s extension with the Rockies.

That reduced annual value won’t likely mean much in the way of sacrificed earning power, as it covers only three late-career seasons. It does help the Phillies to reduce the annual competitive balance tax hit from the signing, which could assist the organization as it looks to maintain competitiveness over a long marriage with its new star.

Beyond the market impact, this move sets the stage for a fascinating season (and beyond) in the National League East. The Phillies, Nationals, and Mets have all made win-now moves in hopes of dethroning a Braves team that is still full of young talent.

Harper’s move up the interstate from D.C. brings an end to a productive tenure with the Nats, reversing the career arc of recently retired former teammate Jayson Werth on a much grander scale. Harper’s exciting debut campaign was punctuated by a memorable run-in with the Phillies and then-ace Cole Hamels, the club that the Nationals were then seeking to eclipse as the premier outfit in the division.

The Washington organization did make a run at keeping Harper, but wasn’t able to work things out. Some might say that he’d have been better off taking the ten-year, $300MM offer that was reportedly put on the table. Reports have made clear that a roughly a third of that money would have been deferred, greatly driving down its true value.

Rather than take a deferred contract, Harper searched for and found the type of fully guaranteed, non-deferred deal he sought with the Philadelphia organization. The move punctuates an offseason that lived up to expectations for the Phillies’ faithful. The club already added the game’s best catcher in J.T. Realmuto, acquired a strong shortstop in Jean Segura, and added veterans including Andrew McCutchen and David Robertson. It’s imaginable that there’s more still to come, though perhaps the initial focus will be on making a roster-clearing move to accommodate the newest addition.

Investing in Harper gives the Phillies the game’s most recognizable player. He’s also quite a good one, even if he hasn’t shown that he can consistently produce at the otherworldly levels he did in a magical 2015 season. Harper’s ups and downs have come with a very lofty mean, of course — he’s a .279/.388/.512 career hitter with 184 home runs in nearly four thousand career plate appearances — though the aggregate remains every so slightly disappointing given his nearly unmatched talent level. Defensive questions arose last year, as Harper graded quite poorly. That was cause for concern in some quarters, though there’s also reason to believe that he can turn things around.

We at MLBTR would be remiss not to acknowledge that the out-on-a-limb estimation we put forth on Harper early in the offseason — a 14-year pact worth $420MM — ultimately proved to be a dramatic overreach. At the time of our initial top 50 rankings, we were of the belief that because Harper and Machado were non-traditional free agents (i.e. legitimate superstars who’d not yet played their age-26 seasons), traditional contractual structures wouldn’t apply to them. With so much talk in the preceding offseason about the teams who bend over backward to dip below the luxury tax in advance of this offseason’s crop of free agents, our team fully anticipated a widespread level of interest that simply never came to fruition.

Rather, with only three to four serious bidders for most of the winter, Harper and Boras had to claw to reach a point at which we expected the bidding to begin. The end result — a significantly lengthier term with the intent of tamping down the average annual value/luxury tax hit — was, as noted at the time, a highly plausible outcome, though securing a record-setting guarantee required lowering the AAV further than our forecast.

Predictions aside, Harper’s deal sets a new high-water mark on which premier players of the future will set their sights when seeking open-market contracts or, at least, extensions on the cusp of free agency. One can imagine, to varying extents, the Harper guarantee at least serving as a talking point when Mike Trout and Mookie Betts, both controlled through the 2020 season, begin to take an earnest look at their next contracts. Of course, they’d reach free agency at three and two years older than Harper was this winter, respectively, so it’s far from a direct comparison. But, as the Stanton contract did in this instance, the Harper contract will now serve as a barometer that agents and superstar players alike will aim to topple — even if by only a narrow measure.

Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link) first reported the deal. Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (Twitter links) and Jim Bowden of The Athletic (Twitter link) had the key terms, with Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post (Twitter link) and MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez (via Twitter) adding details.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salvador Perez Diagnosed With UCL Damage

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6:21PM: Tommy John surgery has indeed been recommended for Perez, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets.  Perez is expected to undergo the surgery next week.  He first may meet Dr. ElAttrache for final confirmation, as Royals manager Ned Yost and trainer Nick Kenney told MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan (Twitter links) and other reporters that Perez will head to Los Angeles for the examination on Wednesday.  Yost and Kenney both stopped short of referring to Perez’s injury as any sort of a tear, instead describing it simply as ligament damage.  Perez was shut down for four weeks earlier this offseason, Yost and Kenny said, after the catcher experienced a flexor strain during offseason training.

1:36PM: Royals catcher Salvador Perez has been diagnosed with damage to the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow, the team announced. Perez is headed for a second opinion from Dr. Neal ElAttrache.

The ultimate prognosis is not yet known, clearly, but the signs are not promising. In the best case scenario, the workhorse backstop is likely to miss a decent stretch for rest and rehab. If the ligament is damaged enough to require surgery, his 2019 season could be at risk.

Beyond Perez, the Royals have rather slim pickings behind the dish. Cam Gallagher and Meibrys Viloria are the only other two backstops on the 40-man roster — and the only two that have ever seen MLB action.  In what could be a sign that the Royals are preparing for the worst with Perez’s diagnosis, the team has already been in touch with veteran free agent Martin Maldonado, as per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter).

Kansas City will presumably consider all free agent options both now and perhaps closer to the end of Spring Training, when more catchers will be released from (or opt out of) their minor league contracts if they don’t make their current rosters.  The Royals will surely also consider the trade market.  The Red Sox stand out as the most obvious potential trade partner in this regard, as Boston is known to be looking to move one of Christian Vazquez, Sandy Leon, or Blake Swihart.

If the Royals go out in search of another option, they’ll likely focus on a short-term fix.  Perez, 28, is due to earn $10MM this season under the second extension he signed with the K.C. club.  That deal also promises him $13MM annually in the following two campaigns.

One of the few holdovers remaining from the Royals’ 2015 World Series team, Perez is a long-time fixture of the franchise, and was being counted on to continue being a clubhouse mentor to a younger K.C. roster as the team goes through another rebuild phase.  Perez hasn’t had an OBP over .300 since 2013 and his framing numbers took a big hit last season (as per both StatCorner and Baseball Prospectus), though he is still considered an above-average defender and provides some extra pop from the catcher’s position.  Perez has hit 97 homers over the last four seasons, more than any other catcher in baseball and a number topped by only 33 players in total.

Blue Jays To Sign Bud Norris

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TODAY: The deal is now official, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets.  The contract contains an opt-out clause for Norris on March 21.

THURSDAY, 5:45pm: Norris would earn $3MM upon making the roster and can pick up another $1.25MM via incentives, per Robert Murray of The Athletic (Twitter link).

4:35pm: It’s a minor league deal for Norris, according to Shi Davidi of Sportsnet (Twitter link).

4:22pm: The Blue Jays have agreed to terms on a contract with free-agent right-hander Bud Norris, reports Craig Mish of SiriusXM (via Twitter). Norris is represented by the Ballengee Group.

Bud Norris | John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports

Norris, who’ll turn 34 over the weekend, turned in a solid season with the Cardinals in 2018, working primarily as the closer in St. Louis. Over the life of 57 2/3 innings, the righty turned in a 3.59 ERA with 10.5 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 1.25 HR/9 and a 42.6 percent ground-ball rate. Fielding-independent metrics like FIP (3.99), xFIP (3.65) and SIERA (3.30) all felt that he was a generally solid bullpen piece with an ERA that was largely reflective of his overall performance.

Norris enjoyed a second consecutive season with a swinging-strike rate of 12 percent or better — the first two such campaigns of his career — and he induced swings at pitches outside the strike zone at a career-best 35.9 percent clip, as well. That mark tied him for 18th among 151 qualified relievers, while Norris registered a career-high 94.6 mph average fastball.

Looking back to Norris’ 2017 campaign, his results in terms of fielding-independent metrics, strikeout rate, ground-ball rate and swinging-strike rate were nearly identical to the marks he posted in 2018. Over those two seasons, he’s combined for 47 saves between the Angels and Cardinals. However, despite the resurgence he’s enjoyed as a reliever, the veteran nonetheless had to settle for a non-guaranteed pact. He’s far from the only veteran who’s had to do so this offseason on the heels of a solid campaign, but it still looks to be a quality low-risk pickup for a Blue Jays club that has ample room to add a veteran arm to its relief corps.

General manager Ross Atkins said early in February that his club’s focus from that point forth would be on pitching acquisitions, and Norris stands out as one of the clear best arms remaining on the relief market. He’ll slot into a late-inning mix that features Ken Giles and Ryan Tepera, with other relief options like David Paulino, Joe Biagini, fellow non-roster invitee John Axford and Rule 5 pick Elvis Luciano all vying for jobs in rookie manager Charlie Montoyo’s bulllpen.

Padres Sign Adam Warren

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The Padres have inked reliever Adam Warren, per a club announcement. It’s a one-year deal with a club option. Warren, a client of Full Circle Sports Management, is promised $2.5MM on the contract, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter links). That includes a $2MM salary for 2019 and a $500K buyout on a $2.5MM option.

Southpaw Jose Castillo was placed on the 60-day injured list to create roster space. He is dealing with a flexor strain that is obviously considered a fairly significant malady.

Outside of a forgettable 2016 run with the Cubs, Warren has steadily produced good results at the MLB level. All said, he has thrown 463 2/3 innings of 3.42 ERA pitching. Warren carries only 7.8 K/9 in the aggregate, but he had boosted his strikeout numbers over the past two years — at least, that is, until he was dealt to the Mariners in the middle of the 2018 season. Warren racked up 11.1 strikeouts per nine in his first thirty frames of the year but dropped back to 6.2 K/9 down the stretch in Seattle.

Warren projects as another solid arm within a Padres bullpen that was already one of the team’s strengths in 2018.  Led by Kirby Yates and Craig Stammen, San Diego’s relief corps has added a pair of notable veterans in the last two weeks, between Aaron Loup and now the Warren signing.  Warren has pitched as a multi-inning reliever in the past, and perhaps could even be deployed as an “opener” should San Diego choose to adopt that strategy.

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