Braves Notes: Dansby Swanson, Charlie Morton, Kenley Jansen
After following up their underdog 2021 Cinderella World Series win with an improved 101-win season, the Braves have been eliminated from the 2022 postseason by the Phillies. With their 2022 season in the rearview mirror, General Manager Alex Anthopoulos will be hard at work improving the already impressive Braves core.
Perhaps the most important question facing the Braves as they head into the offseason is their hole at shortstop. Atlanta native Dansby Swanson has been the Braves’ starting shortstop since 2016, and will be a free agent for the first this offseason after receiving a $10MM salary during his final trip through the arbitration process. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported that the Braves had opened extension talks with Swanson in mid-August, but there has yet to be a tangible result.
Swanson, who is coming off his fourth consecutive strong season, slashed .277/.329/.447 while posting the highest Outs Above Average (20) among qualified shortstops en route to his first All-Star appearance. He joins Trea Turner, and, if they exercise their opt-outs, Carlos Correa and Xander Bogaerts as the top options at short.
When asked about his thoughts on free agency and potentially leaving the Braves, Swanson responded that free agency is “the last thing on my mind,” per Mark Bowman of MLB.com. However, Anthopoulos confirmed in a press conference earlier today that there is mutual interest in getting a deal done, but he didn’t provide specific figures, per Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
The Braves, who have become notorious in recent seasons for signing players in the early stage of their career to ‘team-friendly’ contracts (Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris II, Spencer Strider, Austin Riley), currently have roughly $186MM committed to the 2023 season, not factoring in arbitration, per Roster Resource. However, out of arbitration-eligible players, only starter Max Fried is predicted to significantly impact the Braves’ payroll, with other arbitration-eligible players expected to earn under $3MM if they are tendered contracts.
Importantly, in the 2021 offseason, the Braves reportedly offered long-time first baseman Freddie Freeman a five-year contract in the $135MM-$140MM range. When talks stalled, the Braves moved to acquire Matt Olson from the Athletics, signing him to an eight-year, $168MM contract. Freeman then went on to sign with the Dodgers on a six-year, $162MM contract.
The Braves, potentially, already have Swanson’s replacement in Vaughn Grissom, who posted a strong .291/.353/.440 line in 151 at-bats after being called up in mid-August. Grissom has primarily played second in his brief Major League career but came up through the Minors as a shortstop. If Swanson is re-signed, Grissom may be forced to transition to the outfield or work as a utility player with Riley and Albies patrolling the infield.
Transitioning to the mound, starter Charlie Morton was forced to exit yesterday’s game in the third inning after taking a line drive to his pitching elbow. Morton initially stayed in the game and completed the inning but was pulled by manager Brian Snitker after Snitker watched Morton warm up prior to the third inning. During an in-game interview, Snitker announced that x-rays showed no structural damage in Morton’s elbow, and that Morton wanted to try and continue to pitch, per Mike Axisa of CBS.
Morton had pitched two innings prior to leaving the game, giving up four hits and three runs, all on a Brandon Marsh homer. Morton, who turns 39 in November was a steady force in the Braves’ rotation, pitching to a 4.34 ERA in 172 innings (31 starts) with a strong 28.2% strikeout rate. His strong performance led to a one-year, $20MM contract extension for the 2023 season, with a $20MM club option for the 2024 campaign.
Reliever Kenley Jansen is entering free agency, but Anthopoulos has made it clear that the Braves would “love to have him back,” per Toscano. After leaving the Dodgers in free agency to join the Braves on a one-year, $16MM contract, Jansen led the National League in saves with 41, posting a 3.38 ERA in 64 innings with a lofty 32.7% strikeout rate. However, Jansen’s HardHit percentage spiked from 26.1% in 2021 to 32.5% in 2022, and his ground ball rate dropped from 37.3% to 29.1%, the second-lowest mark of his career.
If the Braves and Jansen are unable to come to an agreement, they likely have his successor in Raisel Iglesias who was acquired at the 2022 trade deadline in exchange for pitching prospect Tucker Davidson and Jesse Chavez. Since joining Atlanta, Iglesias has allowed only one run in 26 1/3 innings, resulting in a minuscule 0.32 ERA. These strong numbers are backed by a high 30.0% strikeout rate, a low 5.0% walk rate, and a solid 40.6% ground ball rate.
Dodgers Notes: Kershaw, Bellinger, Turner, Anderson
Despite winning a league-leading 111 games, the Dodgers will find themselves watching the World Series rather than playing in it, having lost yesterday’s game to the Padres, and bowing out of the NLDS. With the 2022 season now behind them, the Dodgers’ front office will be tasked with configuring the team’s 2023 roster.
Nine-time All-Star and three-time Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw returned to the Dodgers this past offseason on a one-year, $17MM contract with incentives, and, as MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk wrote in September, the southpaw is leaning towards playing in the 2023 season.
Following yesterday’s game, Kershaw announced a similar intent, telling reporters that “as of right now, I’d say I’ll play again,” per Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic. However, the lefty added that “we’ll see what happens. Going home and being around and being a full-time dad changes your perspective on things,” per Ardaya.
Now a veteran of 15 Major League seasons, Kershaw has been a Dodger his entire career. However, the lefty was heavily courted by his hometown Rangers during the 2021 off-season, a team that will once again look to add pitching in the off-season. Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times reported that the Rangers were “willing to give Kershaw more years, more money” in addition to the chance to “play home games 20 minutes from his house in Dallas.”
The Dodgers have more control over what happens with Cody Bellinger. With one year of arbitration eligibility remaining, the Dodgers will be forced to make a difficult decision regarding the 2019 NL MVP.
Bellinger and the Dodgers avoided arbitration this past offseason, agreeing to a one-year, $17MM contract before the lockout. However, the lefty has yet to perform at a similar level to his 2019 magical season. This past season Bellinger slashed .210/.265/.389 with 19 homers in 504 at-bats, improving upon his 2021 season, in which he posted a .165/.240/.302 line, but nowhere close to his .305/.406/.629 2019 season.
When asked about Bellinger, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts replied that “it’s difficult” and that he has given Bellinger “a lot of leash because he’s earned it,” per Ardaya. Importantly, as predicted by Matt Swartz’s model, Bellinger is expected to earn $18.1MM in arbitration this winter. It will be hard for any team, regardless of payroll size, to justify paying that sum to a player who has hit a collective .203/.272/.376 over the past three seasons.
If the Dodgers opt to cut Bellinger, there will likely be plenty of suitors for the 27-year-old, who slashed .278/.369/.559 throughout his first three Major League seasons.
14-year veteran Justin Turner finds himself in a similar situation to Bellinger, with the Dodgers holding a $16MM option, with a $2MM buyout, on the third baseman. Turner had a slow start to his season, slashing .256/.331/.403 over the first half before finding his grove and hitting .319/.386/.503 over the second half. However, the veteran, who will be 38-years-old next season, ended the season flat, going 4 for 24 over his last seven games and 2 for 13 against the Padres.
With the Dodgers opening the 2022 season with an all-time-high $310.6MM payroll and paying nearly $47M in luxury tax, the front office may be forced to shed Turner’s contract in an attempt to re-sign other free agents.
Switching to Dodgers’ free agents, a pair of All-Stars in Trea Turner and Tyler Anderson join the previously mentioned Clayton Kershaw.
Trea Turner is coming off his second All-Star appearance in as many years, slashing .298/.343/.466. It is a notch down from his 2021 season, where the righty posted a collective .328/.375/.536 between the Dodgers and Nationals but it should not affect his stock as a premier shortstop amongst a robust shortstop class, including Dansby Swanson and, potentially, Carlos Correa and Xander Bogaerts, pending opt-outs.
Turner recently suffered a Grade 2 sprain in his right ring finger, but had negative x-rays and felt healthy enough to play in the critical Game 4 of the NLDS. He will likely be healthy for Spring Training.
Lefty Tyler Anderson broke out during the 2022 season after spending his prior six seasons with four different Major League Teams. The southpaw pitched to a sparkling 2.57 ERA in 178 2/3 innings while excelling at limiting hard hits (98th percentile in Average Exit Velocity and 98th percentile in HardHit%) and limiting walks (4.8%).
With Walker Buehler recently undergoing his second Tommy John surgery and Dustin May recently returning from his Tommy John surgery, in addition to Kershaw potentially leaving, the Dodgers will be on the hunt for quality starters this offseason.
Mariners Notes: Raleigh, Haniger, Santana, Frazier, Flexen
After 18 tense innings, the Seattle Mariners finally fell to the Houston Astros yesterday in the American League Division Series, having returned to playoff baseball for the first time since the 2001 season. The Mariners, who had been projected by ESPN to finish the 2022 season a hair over .500 with an 82-80 record, showed that 2021 was no fluke, following up their 90-win 2021 campaign by winning another 90 games en route to a Wild Card berth.
Following the game, backstop Cal Raleigh announced to reports that he had been playing with a broken thumb and a torn ligament in his left hand, per Adam Jude of the Seattle Times. Raleigh had been playing through the thumb injury since early September, but he had not revealed the extent of the injury prior to Saturday’s game. Raleigh announced to reporters that he would see a specialist in the upcoming days to determine a course of action for recovery, per Bob Condotta of the Seattle Times.
The second-year catcher had followed up his rookie campaign with a strong .211/.284/.489 slash line in 2022, hitting 27 home runs in 370 at-bats and finishing the season with the eighth-highest wRC+ among all catchers (121), nestled between Sean Murphy and Travis d’Arnaud. An integral cog to the Mariners’ offense, Raleigh was one of four players (minimum 350 at-bats) that had an OPS above .700. Raleigh followed up his impressing regular season with a strong Wild Card showing against the Blue Jays, going 4-for-8 with a homer and a double, but was quieted by the Astros’ pitching, collecting only 1 hit in 14 at-bats while striking out 5 times.
In the wake of yesterday’s defeat, the Mariners’ front office will turn their heads toward the 2023 season and free agency. Long-time Mariner Mitch Haniger, trade-deadline addition Carlos Santana, and Adam Frazier will all be free agents following the World Series.
Haniger entered the 2022 season looking to follow up on his successful 2021 campaign, .253/.318/.486 in 157 games, and reestablish himself as an everyday player prior to entering free agency after missing part of the 2019 season and the entire 2020 season with various surgeries. The outfielder and Mariners avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $7.75MM contract in early April.
However, Haniger would only make appearances in nine games before suffering a right high ankle sprain that kept him on the injured list from late April to early August. Upon his return, Haniger hit a solid .254/.322/.418 in the final 48 games of the regular season (100 at-bats).
The Mariners’ decision regarding Haniger, who turns 32 in December, will be quite complicated. The Mariners boast a crowded outfield headlined by AL Rookie of the Year favorite Julio Rodriguez, with former top prospect Jarred Kelenic, Dylan Moore, former AL Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis, and Taylor Trammell. Nevertheless, Lewis has struggled to produce at a high level since suffering a right meniscus tear in 2021, and Kelenic and Trammell have both struggled to adjust to Major League pitching.
For his part, Haniger has indicated that he would prefer to remain in Seattle. Following up by saying that he hopes “to be back in a Mariners uniform for sure,” per Daniel Kramer of MLB.com.
Santana, who joined the Mariners from the Royals at the trade deadline, continued to struggle in Seattle, slashing a combined .202/.316/.376 across 131 games. The 36-year-old split his time between DH and first base, accruing 3 Outs Above Average for his work at first. It remains to be seen if the Mariners will opt for a one-player ‘old school’ approach at the DH position, or if they will cycle players through the role during the season.
Frazier followed up his All-Star 2021 campaign with a weaker .238/.301/.311 slash line across 156 games in the 2022 season. The veteran, who was dealt to the Padres during the 2021 season, was traded to the Mariners in exchange for reliever Raymond Kerr and outfielder Corey Rosier prior to the start of the 2022 season. Moore, who was previously mentioned as outfield depth, has also manned all four infield positions and could see an increase in infield work if Frazier is not resigned.
Transitioning to the bump, with five quality starters under contract, starter-turned-reliever Chris Flexen‘s position with the Mariners will be an interesting story to watch unfold. Flexen began the 2022 season as a starter, pitching to a solid 4.02 ERA in 121 innings before being bumped to the bullpen where he worked to a 1.62 ERA in 16 2/3 innings.
It remains to be seen if the Mariners will opt to keep Flexen in the bullpen, utilize a 6-man rotation, or potentially trade Flexen to improve their offense.
As previously mentioned the Mariners only had 4 players finish with an OPS north of .700 (minimum 350 at-bats). As a team, the Mariners finished with the third-lowest batting average (.230), an average on-base percentage (.315), and an average slugging percentage (.390).
Additionally, if they opt to trade Flexen for offense, the Mariners boast three prospects No. 2 Emerson Hancock, No. 5 Bryce Miller, and No. 7 Taylor Dollard, who have all had strong seasons at Double-A Arkansas.
AL East Notes: Moreno, Rutschman, Red Sox
With Alejandro Kirk, Danny Jansen, and top prospect Gabriel Moreno all vying for playing time in 2023, there has been constant speculation over which of these catchers could be dealt to help the Blue Jays address other needs. However, a trade isn’t necessarily a sure thing, as one (at least temporary) answer could be to move Moreno out from behind the plate, as noted by Shi Davidi in a piece for Baseball America. Moreno played in a handful of games at first and third base in the minors, and the final game of the Blue Jays’ 2022 season saw him play as a second baseman and left fielder for the first time in his pro career.
“We have to be open to everything. That’s why you’ve seen him play in different positions,” Toronto GM Ross Atkins told Davidi and other reporters. “But we have to be open to any way to maximize our 40-man roster at this point, and (catching) is clearly an area of depth.”
A catcher athletic enough to play other positions carries extra value, and depending on how well Moreno adapts, his ultimate future might not even be behind the plate. For instance, the Diamondbacks find themselves looking for catching help since former catcher-of-the-future Daulton Varsho has delivered such strong glovework in the outfield. Finding a way to fit Moreno, Kirk, and Jansen into the same lineup would be a boon for the Jays, as Moreno doesn’t have much left to prove at Triple-A. Returning Moreno to the minors “is not our best outcome, most likely, given his progress,” Atkins said.
More from around the AL East…
- Orioles GM Mike Elias has already stated that his team plans to spend more in 2023, though the size and nature of the payroll boost will naturally only be determined as the offseason progresses. Not all of the Orioles’ expenditures would have to be on new talent, as The Baltimore Sun’s Nathan Ruiz opines that “arguably no move made this winter would benefit [the team’s] future more than ensuring [Adley] Rutschman is a part of it.” Locking up Rutschman to a big multi-year extension would follow the pattern of teams looking to lock up star young talents, as we’ve seen with the Mariners’ Julio Rodriguez and the Braves’ Michael Harris II and Spencer Strider just within the last couple of months. There isn’t necessarily any rush for the O’s to make a deal since Rutschman only just finished his rookie season, yet extending the catcher or any of Baltimore’s many up-and-coming young stars would seem like a logical next step in the front office’s process.
- The Red Sox are one of many teams facing some tough 40-man roster decisions this winter, and NBC Sports Boston’s John Tomase takes a look at some of the prospects under consideration to receive roster spots. Some decisions are easier than others, as shortstop/center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela will certainly be added to the 40-man following a great season at the high-A and Double-A levels. Rafaela hit .299/.342/.539 with 21 homers and 28 steals over 522 combined plate appearances at the two levels in 2022, and also flashed some excellent defense at multiple positions.
Quick Hits: Turner, Cardinals, Girsch, Shaw
Trea Turner is back in the Dodgers lineup for tonight’s critical Game 4 of the NLDS, even though Turner suffered a Grade 2 sprain in his right ring finger in yesterday’s game, manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times). Turner felt good enough in pregame warmups to play, and play in the field at shortstop, turning down Roberts’ option of only acting as the designated hitter. X-rays were negative on Turner’s finger, and though Roberts said Turner “might take a day” with such an injury if it had happened in regular-season play, it wasn’t anything that would land a player on the injured list.
The Dodgers can hardly afford to lose such a key regular as they face elimination, down 2-1 to the Padres in the series. Turner has also been one of Los Angeles’ hottest bats in the series, with two homers and a 1.154 OPS over his 13 plate appearances. After singling in the eighth inning of Game 3, Turner hurt his finger while diving back to first base on a pickoff attempt.
More from around baseball…
- General manager Michael Girsch is one of several members of the Cardinals front office whose contracts are up now that the season is over, and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told reporters (including Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch) that he is hopeful of retaining all the staffers. Girsch is the most prominent name, working in the organization since 2006 and acting in the GM role since June 2017, when Mozeliak was also promoted from GM to the PBO position. Girsch’s history in the organization and the Cardinals’ track record of recent success would seemingly make it likely that he remains on a new contract, though that same organizational success could also naturally make Girsch or other front office members attractive to other clubs looking to make hires.
- The Guardians outrighted Bryan Shaw off their 40-man roster at the end of the season, and he accepted the assignment rather than opt for free agency. In somewhat unusual fashion, Shaw has also remained with the Guards throughout their postseason run, acting as taxi squad depth and continuing his season-long role as a mentor to Cleveland’s young pitchers. “There’s no point in going home and just sitting there. I would rather stay here with these guys, root everyone on, and be here for moral support,” Shaw told Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer. A veteran of 12 Major League seasons, Shaw had limited success on the field this year, posting a 5.40 ERA over 58 1/3 innings out of the Guardians’ bullpen.
Phillies Notes: NLDS, Robertson, Long
The Phillies continue to dance their way through the playoffs, clinching the NLDS with an 8-3 win over the Braves in today’s Game 4. Two trade deadline acquisitions from the Angels played key roles in Philadelphia’s victory — Brandon Marsh‘s three-run homer in the second inning gave the Phils an early lead that they would never relinquish, and starter Noah Syndergaard allowed one earned run over three innings of work. J.T. Realmuto‘s inside-the-park homer in the third inning was another highlight, as Realmuto became the first catcher to ever hit an inside-the-parker during a postseason game.
Entering the playoffs as the lowest seed in the National League bracket, Philadelphia upset the Cardinals in the Wild Card Series and have now eliminated the defending World Series champions. The Phillies will now head to the NLCS for the first time since 2010, and will await the chance to oust another higher-seeded opponent in either the Padres or the Dodgers.
More from the City of Brotherly Love…
- David Robertson was left off the NLDS roster due to a calf strain suffered while jumping to celebrate Bryce Harper‘s home run in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series. Talking to the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Scott Lauber and other reporters about the “embarrassing” injury, Robertson said he received an injection last Monday, and is hoping to be available when the NLCS begins on Tuesday. The veteran right-hander has yet to throw off a mound, but he is throwing on flat ground. Another deadline addition, Robertson posted an impressive 2.70 ERA and 30.3% strikeout rate over 23 1/3 innings for the Phillies after being acquired from the Cubs.
- Phillies hitting coach Kevin Long has been considered for past managerial openings with the Nationals and Mets, and MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports (via Twitter) that Long is again gaining some “buzz” as a managerial candidate. Long is in his 16th consecutive year as a big league hitting coach and his first in Philadelphia, after past stints with the Nationals, Mets, and Yankees. He worked mostly as a hitting coach in the minors prior to his MLB work, but Long was a manager in the Royals’ farm system from 1997-99. Long also spent all eight of his seasons as a player in Kansas City’s minor league ranks, so speculatively, these past ties could be of interest to a Royals team looking to replace Mike Matheny as manager. The Marlins, White Sox, Rangers, and Blue Jays are the other teams in search of a new skipper, though Toronto may be leaning towards retaining interim manager John Schneider, and the Rangers are reportedly favoring ex-Giants manager Bruce Bochy.
NL East Notes: Stallings, Hassell, Chernoff, Mets
As the Phillies take a 2-1 lead over the Braves in the NLDS, let’s check out some other news from around the NL East…
- Jacob Stallings‘ offense declined in his first season with the Marlins, and public defensive metrics from Statcast and Fangraphs indicate that his framing and overall defense also dropped off in 2022. However, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch hears that the Marlins didn’t have any interest in moving Stallings earlier this season, though there is a possibility Miami’s feelings may have changed since Goold’s last inquiry. Nick Fortes played well in part-time action last season, and could be viewed as a candidate for a larger role if the Marlins did indeed move Stallings.
- Nationals outfield prospect Robert Hassell III underwent surgery to fix a broken hamate bone in his right hand, MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo reports. The Talk Nats blog reported last week that Hassell seemed to suffer the injury on a swing in Arizona Fall League play. Since hamate surgeries typically take roughly 6-8 weeks of recovery time, the Nats expect Hassell to be ready for the start of Spring Training. Hassell was one of the key pieces of the six-player package Washington received in the Juan Soto/Josh Bell trade with the Padres, as the outfielder entered the season as a consensus top-40 prospect in baseball. While he struggled after the trade and the move to the Nats farm system, the 21-year-old is expected to begin the 2023 season at Double-A ball.
- Guardians GM Mike Chernoff was on the Mets‘ radar when they were looking for a new front office leader following the 2020 season, but Chernoff rejected an interview request and still doesn’t seem interested in a move away from Cleveland, as he told the New York Post’s Jon Heyman. Both Chernoff and Guards president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti reiterated how much they like their current positions, and Antonetti has also frequent turned down other interview requests from rival teams over the years. With current Mets GM Billy Eppler building a 101-game winner, it would seem a little unusual if the Mets hired another baseball-focused executive as their next team president, and the club might just hire a business-focused executive and leave Eppler in charge of baseball ops. However, the Mets have been linked to so many notable front office names over the last two years that it can’t be ruled out that owner Steve Cohen might finally land a big target.
Yankees Notes: Judge, deGrom, Montas, LeMahieu, Marinaccio, Benintendi
The ALDS is tied 1-1, as today’s Game 2 saw the Yankees suffer a tough 4-2 loss to the Guardians in 10 innings. Giancarlo Stanton‘s two-run homer gave New York a 2-0 lead after the first inning, but the Yankees managed only four more hits and zero additional runs in the next nine innings against Guards pitching. The series now shifts to Cleveland for the next two games, with Luis Severino slated to face Triston McKenzie in tomorrow’s Game 3.
More from the Bronx…
- According to four agents and a non-Yankees executive polled by the New York Post’s Jon Heyman, Aaron Judge‘s next contract is going to be worth at least $300MM, with some speculation that he might approach the $350MM or even $400MM thresholds. It would be a gigantic and possibly record-setting deal for the slugger, yet Judge’s huge 62-homer campaign has made a strong argument for such a contract. With other teams surely interested and possibly driving the price up, it remains to be seen if the Yankees will retain Judge, though GM Brian Cashman said this week that “we’d love to keep him if we can.”
- It also seems like you can rule out any chance of a crosstown swap of free agents, as Heyman doesn’t believe the Mets will make a true run at Judge, nor is it likely that Judge would leave the Yankees for New York’s other team. A league source also flatly told Heyman that “the Yankees aren’t going after [Jacob] deGrom,” as there has been speculation that deGrom might be looking to leave New York for a team closer to his home in Florida.
- The Yankees are missing several notable players on their ALDS roster, but manager Aaron Boone told reporters (including MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch and The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner) that four injured players could perhaps be available if the Yankees advanced to the ALCS. In preparation, Andrew Benintendi, Frankie Montas, and Ron Marinaccio are all heading to Tampa to work out in a live game setting. As Montas recovers from shoulder inflammation, Boone said that Montas would be used as a bulk pitcher (behind an opener) or as a multi-inning reliever, rather than in his usual starting role. DJ LeMahieu is still traveling with the team as he recuperates from his foot injury, with the Yankees specifying that LeMahieu is suffering from a ligament issue with the second toe of his right foot.
Rays Notes: Offense, Choi, Arozarena, Kiermaier, Zunino
For a fourth consecutive season, Rays president of baseball operations Erik Neander held a press conference to discuss his team’s playoff exit — this time after seeing the Rays’ lineup held to just one run in 24 innings during a two-game Wild Card ousting at the hands of the Guardians (links via Adam Berry of MLB.com and Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). In broad terms, Neander spoke of a need to improve the offense, particularly against right-handed pitching, while also praising the depth and quality of the returning pitching staff.
As a collective unit, Rays hitters batted just .234/.305/.373 against right-handed pitching. Their 24% strikeout rate against righties was seventh-worst in MLB (and trailing only one playoff club, Atlanta). Rays hitters connected on 108 homers against righties, placing them 22nd among MLB clubs.
There are varying reasons for the struggles against righties. Playing much of the season without injured lefty-swinging Brandon Lowe, a career .257/.353/.505 hitter when holding the platoon advantage, deprived the Rays of one of their top power threats against right-handed opposition. Wander Franco and Kevin Kiermaier also missed substantial time, and the Rays received a fairly pedestrian showing from deadline pickup David Peralta, who was largely acquired for his track record in this specific area. The spate of health issues pushed the Rays to lean on younger, unproven players more often than they’d have liked and also brought about more right-on-right matchups than the team would surely have preferred.
To that end, Neander indicated that changes are likely on the horizon. While of course declining to mention specific names, the team’s top decision-maker indicated a need to “raise” the team’s “offensive standards” and plainly indicated that the Rays cannot simply “stand pat and assume things will get better.” As ever with the Rays, an active offseason seemingly awaits.
Some degree of turnover was always to be expected, given the Rays’ massive slate of 19 arbitration-eligible players — the most of any team in Major League Baseball. That group will cost a projected $42MM next season, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. Paired with the roughly $25MM in guaranteed contracts on next year’s books (Franco, Lowe, Manuel Margot, Tyler Glasnow and Brooks Raley), plus a handful of pre-arbitration players to round things out, that $42MM sum would push the Rays north of $70MM — a small payroll number for most organizations but one that’s more significant at Tropicana Field. The Rays ran out a franchise-record payroll in 2022 but still clocked in around $85-86MM, illustrating the relative heft of this year’s arbitration class.
As far as potential candidates for a change of scenery, Topkin unsurprisingly indicates that first baseman Ji-Man Choi “seems to be on the way out.” Given Choi’s projected $4.5MM salary, his proximity to free agency (next winter), and the fact that he’s seen his power dip while his strikeouts have risen over the past couple seasons, he stands out as a fairly obvious trade or non-tender candidate. The Rays regularly find low-cost platoon options at first base and designated hitter, which is how Choi landed in Tampa Bay in the first place. (Southpaw Ryan Yarbrough, who lost his rotation spot this year, is out of minor league options in 2023 and could earn more than $4MM in arbitration, seems like another clear candidate, in my view.)
More interestingly, Topkin suggests that the Rays will at least be open to the idea of trading Randy Arozarena this winter (though, to be clear, that’s a far cry from suggesting he’ll be shopped or that he’s likely to be moved). The 27-year-old is still controllable for another four seasons and is only projected to earn $4MM next season in the first of what’ll be four trips through arbitration as a Super Two player, so there shouldn’t be any urgency for the Rays to move him. At the same time, Arozarena could fetch some immediate MLB help in other areas if the Rays are either confident in their in-house outfield options or if they’re able to acquire some additional corner outfield help, be it via trade or free agency.
While subtractions from the arb class — be they via trade or free agency — will lower the club’s payroll, so will the expected departure of some veteran mainstays. Kiermaier’s $13MM club option will surely be declined in favor of a $2.5MM buyout after the perennial defensive standout saw his season truncated by July hip surgery. Catcher Mike Zunino, meanwhile, underwent surgery to alleviate thoracic outlet syndrome. That pair accounted for a combined $19MM in salary this past season.
Neander noted that both players have been important to the Rays over the past several seasons and that the team will be open to discussing returns with each of them. Obviously, with Kiermaier and Zunino both less than three months into their rehab from notable surgeries, the status of their recovery will be paramount both with regard to the potential fit and price point in free agency. Both figure to draw interest from other clubs, too, considering their defensive excellence and the near-perennial scarcity of quality open-market options in center field and behind the plate.
Ross Atkins Addresses Blue Jays Offseason
Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins addressed reporters following the team’s playoff exit at the hands of the Mariners. With a manager still holding the interim tag, a young core that’s getting more and more expensive, and veterans dealing with injuries there’s plenty of question marks going into the offseason in Toronto.
Atkins didn’t make any firm commitments at manager just yet. Asked about the status of interim skipper John Schneider, Atkins noted that it would be “very difficult for us to find better than [him]” but cautioned he “wants more time to work through the (hiring) process” (via Julia Kreuz of MLB.com). The Jays fired Charlie Montoyo in July with the team 46-42. Schneider was handed the team through the end of the season, and the Jays went 46-28 with him at the helm. While the improvement under Schneider is evident, the team did still fall well short of expectations in the playoffs. Atkins and his front office staff certainly wouldn’t rule Schneider out because of two games, and there’d seem to be a good chance he’s retained, but he wasn’t prepared to make any move at this point.
On the playing side, Atkins seemed to indicate running back the current core to be the best path to a championship for the team. The GM both downplayed any urgency to make a core-altering trade and indicated the club had laid the groundwork in extension talks with some core players in hopes of further discussions this offseason (via Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet). Atkins didn’t divulge any specifics, but it stands to reason players like Alek Manoah, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Bo Bichette would fit into that group. Guerrero has three more seasons of arbitration control but is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $14.1MM next year after qualifying for early arbitration as a Super Two player in 2021. Bichette is projected for $6.1MM in his first year of eligibility and is likewise controllable through 2025. Manoah is controllable through 2027 and not yet arbitration eligible, although he’s likely to qualify for Super Two at the end of next season.
Atkins was non-committal on how active the Jays will be in free agency, but Nicholson-Smith mentions they’re expected to pursue starting pitching help. Kevin Gausman is a lock to lead the rotation, but Jose Berrios struggled to a 5.23 ERA in 2022, while Yusei Kikuchi pitched his way out of the rotation with a 5.19 ERA. Berrios will get a chance to turn things around in 2023, while Kikuchi is expected to get another crack at pitching out of the rotation next year. However, Ross Stripling is an impending free agent and Hyun Jin-Ryu will miss most, if not all, of next season recovering from Tommy John surgery.
Atkins also addressed the status of George Springer, who left the Jays final playoff game after colliding with Bichette while pursuing a shallow fly ball. The Jays announced this morning that Springer had sustained a concussion and a strained left shoulder. Atkins indicated today that Springer also has a bone spur in his right elbow and could undergo offseason surgery (Nicholson-Smith). In any event, the expectation is that he’ll be ready for spring training, although given he’s 33 with a checkered injury past and declining defensive numbers it’s fair to wonder how long the Jays will count on him as an everyday center fielder.