Sonny Gray Trade Rumors: Deadline Day
With about one hour remaining until the trade deadline, all eyes are on Athletics ace Sonny Gray. Gray comes with a 3.43 ERA on the season and club control through 2019. The latest:
- The Yankees’ dialogue continues on Gray, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports says the Yankees and A’s have had some movement on a trade, but aren’t quite there yet. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com feels Gray will either go to the Yankees or stay with the A’s. There is a strong belief within the A’s organization that a Gray trade will get done, tweets MLB.com’s Jane Lee.
Sonny Gray Trade Rumors: Sunday
Sonny Gray‘s scheduled Sunday start has already been pushed back to Monday, and as of yesterday, the Yankees were widely rumored to be the favorite to land the Oakland ace. Generally, though, the state of play does not appear to have changed all that much much as of this afternoon. Still, there will be plenty of rumors on Gray flying around from this point forward, and we’ll track them all in this post…
- Indications from this morning are that the Yankees remain focused on pursuing Gray rather than a rental arm, as Jon Heyman of Fan Rag writes. New York has added lefty Jaime Garcia from the Twins, of course, but that acquisition reportedly will not deter their pursuit of Gray — who’d likely bump Garcia to the pen if he’s added.
- At this point, though, talks between the Yanks and A’s are at something of a stalemate, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post. There are suggestions on both sides that the teams will stick to their valuations even with the pressure of the deadline. And that means there’s somewhat “less optimism” that there’ll be a deal sending Gray to the Bronx. Indeed, per Sherman, there hasn’t been much new dialogue of note between New York and Oakland over the last day.
- Meanwhile, the Dodgers are still talking with the A’s about Gray, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets. But it’s also possible, he notes, that the ongoing dialogue is as much about maintaining leverage as it is due to serious, mutual interest.
Twins, Yankees Moving Toward Jaime Garcia Trade
7:10am: Talks between the Twins and Yankees are “at the 1-yard line,” tweets ESPN’s Buster Olney. The Yankees will continue to talk to the A’s about acquiring Gray as well even after the Garcia trade is finalized.
12:53am: Yankees Double-A pitching prospect Zack Littell is part of the talks, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB Network. The Yankees scratched the righty from his start Saturday. MLB.com ranks Littell as New York’s 22nd-best prospect.
12:39am: The Yankees and Twins are “deep into discussions” on a trade that would send left-hander Jaime Garcia to New York, reports Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (on Twitter). Acquiring Garcia would not take the Yankees out of the running for Athletics right-hander Sonny Gray, according to Passan. Reports on Saturday tabbed the Yankees as the favorites to land Gray.
As is the case with Gray, the Yankees have come up in Garcia rumors throughout July. Garcia has already changed teams once this month, having gone from the Braves to the Twins this past Monday in a deal that netted Atlanta unheralded pitching prospect Huascar Ynoa. While the upstart Twins were buyers at the outset of the week, they’ve done a 180 thanks to a 1-5 skid since Monday that has dropped them to 50-52 – seven games out in an American League Central division they once led and four back in the wild-card race.
The 31-year-old Garcia has made just one start with the Twins, a 6 2/3-inning, three-earned run effort in which he struck out seven and walked three in a win over the A’s on Friday. Garcia, an impending free agent who’s owed around $4.5MM through year’s end, has been effective all season, having logged a 4.29 ERA (4.04 FIP), 6.29 K/9, 3.31 BB/9 and a 55 percent ground-ball rate over 119 2/3 innings. He’d upgrade the back end of a Yankees rotation that has most recently relied on Caleb Smith, who has combined to throw seven subpar frames in two starts dating back to last Sunday, and join Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, CC Sabathia and Jordan Montgomery to comprise their starting staff.
Acquiring Gray on top of Garcia would create an extremely interesting conundrum for the Yankees, as it would give the team six capable starters and more than make up for the loss of Michael Pineda to Tommy John surgery. The least proven member of the group would be Montgomery, though the rookie has pitched at least as well as Garcia this year. It’s worth noting, however, that Montgomery has never thrown more than 139 1/3 innings in a season and has already amassed 108 this year. In an effort to tamp down his workload, then, perhaps he’d be a candidate to shift to a relief role. Jon Heyman of FanRag noted Saturday (on Twitter) that the Yankees “wouldn’t mind” picking up another southpaw for their bullpen, and the lefty Montgomery has limited same-sided hitters to a horrid .177/.236/.392 line this season.
Regardless of how the Yankees’ rotation aligns going forward, it’s apparent that general manager Brian Cashman believes the club is a legitimate World Series contender. Cashman made a bold strike earlier this month in picking up two standout relievers – Tommy Kahnle and David Robertson – as well as third baseman Todd Frazier in a trade with the White Sox, and New York has awoken from an early summer slumber since then to regain first place in the American League East. Winners of six straight, the Yankees own a 56-46 record and a half-game advantage over the Red Sox in the division. The Yankees also boast the AL’s second-best run differential (plus-117), which suggests their record should be even better than it is.
Sonny Gray Rumors: Saturday
With two days left before the deadline, here’s the latest on the market for Athletics starter Sonny Gray, with the most recent updates at the top.
- Gray to the Yankees is “somewhere between likely to inevitable,” according to Sherman, who reports that the trade could happen Sunday. An executive who has been involved in Gray talks told Sherman that the Yankees are “holding firm” in what they’re willing to offer because they’re not convinced there are any other serious bidders. In case their negotiations with the A’s collapse, the Yankees are discussing starters with other teams as fallback options, per Sherman.
Earlier updates:
- Neither the Astros nor Brewers are “serious players for Gray,” writes MLB Network’s Ken Rosenthal, who adds that the Braves and Cubs also don’t look likely to acquire him. The Dodgers are the biggest threat to the Yankees in this sweepstakes, but Gray isn’t LA’s main focus, per Rosenthal. With that in mind, Rosenthal expects the Yankees to land Gray, though it might not happen until Monday. Gray to the Bronx makes sense, opines Rosenthal, who notes that the Yankees need answers in their rotation beyond this year (only Luis Severino and Jordan Montgomery are locks to return in 2018) and want to get under the $197MM luxury-tax threshold next season. Acquiring the affordable Gray would help them on both fronts.
- Heyman, Sherman, Bob Nightengale of USA Today and Buster Olney of ESPN (on Twitter) each report that the A’s and Yankees are making progress in Gray talks. There’s “optimism” a deal will happen, per Nightengale.
- As expected, Oakland has pushed Gray’s next start from Sunday to Monday, reports Joe Stiglich of NBC Sports California (Twitter link).
- The A’s talks centering on Gray have been heavier with the Yankees than any other team over the past 48 hours, per Morosi (Twitter link).
- Gray will, in fact, skip his start tomorrow if he hasn’t been traded by then, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets. Bob Klapisch of USA Today previously tweeted that the A’s were likely to pull Gray from his scheduled start tomorrow due to requests from teams interested in trading for him.
- The Yankees’ reluctance to part with Torres or Frazier is not currently holding up talks with the A’s about Gray, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweets. The two sides are currently discussing other players and still have not reached an agreement. In fact, Morosi tweets that the A’s prefer another Yankees prospect, Estevan Florial, to Frazier because of his center field defense.
- Only after the A’s trade Gray will there be a flurry of activity surrounding other starters, Jon Morosi writes for MLB.com. Teams in the pitching market are primarily seeking multiyear assets like Gray rather than rentals, Morosi writes. That means there are more teams interested in Gray than in rentals like Yu Darvish or Lance Lynn.
- The Brewers and Athletics have hit an impasse in their discussions about Gray, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets. The hangup, it seems, is that the A’s want top young outfielder Lewis Brinson, and the Brewers don’t want to trade him. Brinson arrived last winter in the Jonathan Lucroy deal and made his big-league debut last month.
- The Yankees still have interest in Gray, but are now looking to rental options like Darvish, Lynn and Jaime Garcia, FanRag’s Jon Heyman writes. (A report earlier today also connected the Yankees to Dan Straily.) As was previously reported, the Yankees do not want to part with Gleyber Torres or Clint Frazier. Still, teams expect Gray to be traded before Sunday, when he’s scheduled to start.
- The Yankees “might take” first baseman Yonder Alonso to help “facilitate” a Gray deal, but they aren’t currently focused on first base, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick writes (Twitter links). If the Athletics don’t reduce their price for Gray, the Yankees are prepared to look elsewhere. To state the obvious, Alonso is a terrific asset in his own right, and does not fit the profile of a player a team would take merely to facilitate a trade. The first baseman is batting .262/.360/.525 with 21 home runs this season.
Looking For A Match In A Yonder Alonso Trade
Yonder Alonso turned himself from non-tender candidate last winter to the Athletics’ representative at the All-Star Game two weeks ago. Thanks in large part to an offseason swing change aimed to deliver more fly balls, Alonso is enjoying by far the best of his eight big league seasons. The first baseman is batting .263/.361/.527 with 21 homers over 346 plate appearances, and is producing 38% more runs than the average hitter as per the wRC+ metric. Beyond just putting the ball in the air more often, Alonso is also exhibiting more discipline at the plate, with a career-best 12.7% walk rate.
It all adds up to a nice platform year for Alonso as he heads into free agency this winter, and the A’s gain an extra trade chip they perhaps didn’t expect to have when they decided to bring Alonso back on a one-year, $4MM contract for 2017. With only about $1.31MM remaining on Alonso’s deal and his big numbers, he stands out among other remaining rental players as a particularly inexpensive lineup upgrade.
The counter-argument for Alonso as a prime deadline pickup is that his numbers significantly cooled off in June and July after a torrid start to the season. Since Alonso was little more than a league-average hitter from 2010-16, some teams could believe that he is simply a two-month wonder rather than a true breakout player. He also carries pronounced splits (a .950 OPS against right-handed pitching against just a .685 OPS against southpaws). When that’s combined with Alonso’s subpar defense and baserunning stats, he doesn’t bring much to the table unless he can keep punishing righties.
Another complication is the fact that most contenders are already set at first base or designated hitter, and that fairly thin list of potential Alonso suitors got a bit thinner when the Rays acquired Lucas Duda from the Mets. Alonso has played a bit of third base and left field in his career, but would hardly be a passable option at either position. With only one team reportedly showing legitimate interest in Alonso, Oakland might have to get a bit creative to find a trade partner and recoup a good prospect or two in return, unless an injury shakes up the market. Here are a few of the potential fits…
Yankees: This post really could be called “Looking For A Match In A Yonder Alonso Trade Besides The Yankees,” since the Bronx Bombers are Alonso’s only known suitors, and they’ve stood out for weeks as the most obvious candidates for his services. New York and Oakland have been engaged in talks about not just Alonso, but also ace righty Sonny Gray, with recent reports suggesting that the Yankees could be trying to land both in a package deal. First base has been a problem area all season long for the Yankees, with converted third baseman Chase Headley serving as the most recent option at first since Todd Frazier took over the everyday duties at the hot corner. (Headley, a switch-hitter, has actually hit quite well over the last two months.) Alonso’s left-handed bat and his newfound ability to put the ball in the air would seemingly make him a perfect fit for Yankee Stadium’s short porch in right field, so New York has to be considered the leaders in the Alonso sweepstakes until proven otherwise.
Mariners: Alonso would supplant Danny Valencia as the everyday first baseman, and the two in tandem would create quite a formidable platoon given that Valencia has always mashed left-handed pitching. These sluggers were teammates in Oakland last season before Valencia was dealt to the Mariners, so clearly the M’s and A’s are open to trading with each other. Seattle doesn’t have a particularly deep minor league system, though one can’t rule GM Jerry Dipoto out of any trade scenario.
Red Sox: Mitch Moreland‘s production has badly fallen off since suffering a broken toe, and Alonso could slot right into Moreland’s role as the regular first baseman (with Hanley Ramirez or perhaps rookie Sam Travis getting the odd start against lefty pitchers). The Red Sox have been looking for ways to jumpstart a slumping offense, so Alonso would boost a lineup that has posted below-average numbers against right-handed pitching.
Royals: Eric Hosmer is firmly entrenched at first base, so Kansas City might explore Alonso as an upgrade over left-handed hitting DH Brandon Moss, who has just a .696 overall OPS for the season and only a .623 OPS against righties. Moss has been red-hot in July, however, so this may no longer be quite as pressing a need as it was just a few weeks ago. The Royals have been mostly on the lookout for pitching help at the deadline, though they did have an interest in J.D. Martinez before he was dealt to Arizona.
Astros: It’s hard to imagine that Houston’s lineup could actually get scarier, though DH Carlos Beltran is hitting just .234/.288/.405 and is on pace for a sub-replacement level season. Alonso could add a left-handed hitting complement to righty bats Yuli Gurriel and Evan Gattis in the first base/DH mix. Houston already has such an embarrassment of offensive riches that it might not be willing to give up much of a prospect return for what would be a pure luxury, especially when that prospect or prospects would be going to an AL West rival. Then again, the Astros have also been linked to Sonny Gray, so they could also potentially look into a Gray/Alonso package deal. GM Jeff Luhnow recently stated that the team is already looking ahead to potential needs for October, so if Luhnow feels the Astros need more left-handed balance in their lineup, Alonso could come onto their radar.
Rockies: Despite a league-worst wRC+ (78) against right-handed pitching and an overall offense that ranks 24th of 30 teams in fWAR, Colorado is still solidly holding on an NL wild card slot. Without a designated hitter spot available, however, the Rockies don’t really have room for Alonso — they’re already shuttling Ian Desmond between first base and left field, with Mark Reynolds and Gerardo Parra handling whatever position Desmond isn’t occupying. Even if Carlos Gonzalez‘s nightmarish 2017 season results in a loss of his everyday job, the Rox might turn to internal options — such as top prospect Ryan McMahon — before looking at a player like Alonso to help the lineup.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Sonny Gray Trade Rumors: Thursday
11:03pm: Gray’s market is still in flux, with Jon Heyman of Fan Rag reporting that the Yankees are balking at the A’s requests for a package centered around Clint Frazier or Gleyber Torres. Even if Oakland checks down to some of the Yanks’ next tier of prospects, such as Estevan Florial, it seems that New York will remain reluctant to pull the trigger on Gray — though the club has seemingly focused on him to this point.
In his own look at the market for Gray, Ken Rosenthal of MLB Network says the Astros and Brewers are “not significantly involved” at present. He notes, too, that the Padres’ interest may be more serious than has previously been thought.
9:33am: Rosenthal now tweets that the Nationals are not, in fact, in on either Gray or Rangers ace Yu Darvish. Rather, the team might simply elect to pursue another reliever to further boost the back of the bullpen.
12:00am: Earlier tonight, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported that rival clubs believe that most teams have informed the Athletics which centerpieces they’re willing to part with in a potential trade for right-hander with Sonny Gray, adding that the Yankees are believed to be the front-runners. According to Sherman, many expect that the A’s will deal Gray before this Sunday’s scheduled start against the Twins.
Though the Yankees are the perceived front-runner, Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets that both the Nationals and Mariners have some interest in Gray, though the extent of that interest isn’t clear. MLB Network’s Ken Rosenthal writes that the Mariners and A’s haven’t touched base on Gray in about a week, though multiple rivals from around the game believe that ever-active GM Jerry Dipoto will find a way to make a competitive bid despite a thin farm system.
Rosenthal outlines a speculative scenario in which the M’s could pair a big league outfielder with top prospect Kyle Lewis (among other pieces), then pivot to acquire a new corner outfielder in what is currently a buyers’ market for short-term corner bats. (Rosenthal’s column has multiple quotes on Dipoto’s whirlwind style of trading, including one unnamed exec opining: “I don’t think he’s burning [the farm system] to the ground. I think he knows it’s already on fire and is trying to do what he can with the assets he has.” It’s well worth a full look.)
As for the Nats, Rosenthal reports that a deal could hinge on whether the Nats would part with prized prospect Victor Robles in a deal (Twitter links). Some in the Nationals’ organization now value fellow outfield prospect Juan Soto over Robles, though that hardly suggests that Washington has soured on Robles or given up on him in any way.
Sherman suggests that one factor working in favor of the Yankees is that some believe the Astros to be the team most willing to roll the dice on Orioles’ closer Zach Britton, which could take some of their focus off Gray. Sherman notes that the Astros do still have some trepidation about the various red flags surrounding Britton this year (injuries, lack of appearances on consecutive days, etc.). Houston GM Jeff Luhnow again emphasized to ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick today, however, that he doesn’t feel obligated to overpay for any addition given the team’s significant lead in the American League West. “We have a pretty good team, and if we can improve it without giving up too much of our future, we will,” said Luhnow.
Heyman’s Latest: Royals, Lynn, Gray, Rockies, Brewers
In his Inside Baseball column today, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag takes a look at some of the most important remaining trade deadline scenarios. He also runs down some news and notes from both the American League and National League. Among the highlights with relevance to the trade market:
- The Royals remain on the hunt for rotation help even after netting Trevor Cahill, Heyman writes. (That much may be evidenced by their apparent talks for Francisco Liriano, which are reportedly progressing.) Heyman notes that Kansas City even called the Athletics on Sonny Gray and the Rangers on Yu Darvish, though the team was realistic about the fact that it doesn’t have much of a chance of outbidding the competition for either player.
- If the Cardinals ultimately make Lance Lynn available, the Yankees would have interest in the right-hander, though Sonny Gray remains New York’s top target. Lynn is a free agent at season’s end, and as such wouldn’t help fill any of the upcoming voids in the Yankees’ rotation after the 2017 season.
- The Braves have scouted Gray more than any team in the league, per Heyman, though they’re not currently believed to be the favorite to land him. Heyman notes that the money saved in the Jaime Garcia deal could help facilitate the acquisition of Gray, which is a suggestion that has been made in recent days. It seems worth bearing in mind, though, that Gray is only earning $3.575MM in 2017. Plus, any financial crunch the Braves had would only have been present due to the fact that the team acquired Garcia (and Bartolo Colon and R.A. Dickey) as stopgaps in the first place.
- Starting pitching remains a target area for the Rockies after picking up Pat Neshek in a trade, and Colorado even considered Darvish as an option, though the Rockies are unsurprisingly on Darvish’s no-trade list. (That’s not a knock on the Rockies by any means, but I’d imagine that most pitchers, if given the opportunity, would want to safeguard themselves from being traded to pitch at Coors Field.)
- Brewers owner Mark Attanasio is more willing to part with top prospects in order to land Sonny Gray than his front office is, according to Heyman. General manager David Stearns and his staff are reluctant to part with the club’s very top prospects, and Attanasio has been deferring to the preferences of his baseball operations staff. The Athletics are eyeing center field prospect Lewis Brinson, Heyman continues, but it seems that the Brewers’ front office isn’t keen on parting with that level of talent.
- It’s been reported that the Mets are likely to hang onto lefty Jerry Blevins, and Heyman notes that GM Sandy Alderson’s rationale is that if he traded Blevins, he’d merely be looking to fill that void with a free agent in a market where most relievers will enter the offseason seeking three-year deals. (Of course, that logic could also be used to argue that Blevins’ value is all the higher, and the Mets managed to pick up Blevins on a one-year guarantee even though he reportedly sought three years himself early last offseason. Boone Logan, who also signed a one-year deal in Cleveland, was also reportedly seeking three at one point.)
A’s Designate John Axford For Assignment
The Athletics announced that veteran right-hander John Axford has been designated for assignment as part of a series of roster moves. Catcher Ryan Lavarnway‘s contract has been selected from Triple-A, and he’ll take Axford’s spot on the 40-man roster. Lavarnway will step into the 25-man roster spot of fellow catcher Josh Phegley, who is headed to the 10-day DL with a strained left oblique muscle. Right-hander Ryan Dull, meanwhile, has been activated from the 10-day disabled list. The San Francisco Chronicle’s Susan Slusser suggested last night that Axford could be designated for assignment to upon Dull’s return.
The 34-year-old Axford posted solid results in the first season of a two-year, $10MM contract with the A’s in 2016, but his longstanding struggles with control have resurfaced in a significant manner in 2017. Axford has issued 17 walks in 21 innings this season, and he’s paired those control troubles with his highest home-run rate since 2013. He’s still averaged a strikeout per inning with a 50 percent ground-ball rate and an average fastball velocity of 95 mph, but his overall ERA rests at 6.43. ERA alternatives such as FIP (5.73), xFIP (5.31) and SIERA (5.17) don’t paint a much rosier picture for Axford’s work in 2017.
Trade Chatter: Gray, Blue Jays, Twins, Red Sox, Reed
There’s a belief among teams that most clubs have let the Athletics know which piece or pieces they’re comfortable parting with as headliners in a potential Sonny Gray trade, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Interested parties feel that one club will eventually separate itself before Gray’s scheduled start on Sunday, Sherman continues, adding that the current belief is that the Yankees have offered the best package thus far. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported yesterday that the Yankees were “making progress” in negotiations with the Athletics and added that New York has also discussed Yonder Alonso in those talks.
Some more rumblings with Monday’s 4pm ET non-waiver deadline looming…
- Also from Sherman, the Blue Jays are still only interested in dealing their impending free agents and haven’t changed their unwillingness to move players like Josh Donaldson, Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez or Roberto Osuna. Toronto plans to try to move Marco Estrada, Francisco Liriano, Joe Smith and Jose Bautista, and, as Sherman notes, could find success in dealing Bautista in August if a match doesn’t surface this month. (I’d add that like Bautista, Liriano is also highly likely to clear revocable trade waivers next month.) Despite struggling through his worst season since breaking out with the Blue Jays seven years ago, Bautista has generated a bit of interest from other clubs, according to Sherman.
- MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that the Twins are at least open to the idea of moving Ervin Santana and Jaime Garcia if their recent struggles don’t turn around before the non-waiver deadline. Minnesota dropped below .500 for the first time since April after a pair of losses to the Dodgers, and the Royals are surging toward the top of the division as well. Santana has struggled over the past month and a half but would still figure to draw interest as a fairly reasonably priced rotation stabilizer, even if his ERA has never been supported by peripheral metrics. And while some may raise an eyebrow at the notion of moving Garcia, I’d point out that since the Twins took on all of the money owed to Garcia, they could offer to flip him, still pay his contract, and potentially receive a better prospect than the Huascar Ynoa, whom they traded to Atlanta to get Garcia in the first place.
- The Red Sox may not add another bat to the mix after acquiring Eduardo Nunez, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (Twitter links). Boston has seen Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi and Mitch Moreland each struggle of late, but the team believes that when that group emerges from its slump, the offense won’t be much of an issue. Rather, the BoSox are currently focusing on adding another arm to the bullpen.
- ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweets that he spoke to a scout whose team has interest in Mets closer Addison Reed that expressed some concern that Reed has been overworked by manager Terry Collins. Only 10 relievers in baseball have more appearances than Reed’s 47, and five of them are situational relievers whose innings count is considerably lower than Reed’s total of 48. By my count, Reed has worked more than an inning on six occasions this year, and he’s also worked on three consecutive days four different times.
Jeff Samardzija Unlikely To Waive No-Trade Clause
Jeff Samardzija‘s name has come up frequently in recent trade rumors, but the 32-year-old right-hander’s five-year, $90MM contract allows him to block trades to all but eight teams. Moreover, Samardzija tells Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News that if approached by the Giants about a trade to one of the teams over which he has veto power, he wouldn’t be interested in waiving the clause.
“I love being here,” said Samardzija shortly after praising the Giants’ core players and suggesting that the team fully believes it can turn the tide next season. Samardzija smiled yesterday when telling Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle that he “[doesn’t] remember” the eight teams to which he can be traded without his approval (Twitter link), but Baggarly now reports the full list in a separate column.
According to Baggarly, Samardzija can be traded to the Red Sox, Cubs, Mets, Yankees, Angels, Dodgers, Athletics and Nationals without his consent. All other teams — including the Astros, who have been the team most frequently connected to Samardzija on the rumor circuit — require Samardzija’s consent, and it doesn’t sound like he’s interested in green-lighting any proposals.
Samardzija is owed $18MM annually and has struggled in the estimation of traditional metrics this season. He’s sporting a 5-11 record with a 4.85 ERA, but most other statistical means of evaluation are rather bullish on the righty. He’s averaging 9.7 K/9 against 1.1 BB/9, both of which would be the best marks of his career, and leading the Majors in K/BB ratio. His 43.3 percent ground-ball rate is only a tick below average, and he’s inducing more swings at pitches out of the strike zone than he ever has before. Samardzija’s fastball velocity has also held strong at an average of just over 94 mph, and he’s averaging nearly 6 2/3 innings per start. Metrics like FIP (3.49), xFIP (3.13) and SIERA (3.28 prior to today’s strong outing) all view him much more favorably than earned run average.
Samardzija has struggled with men on base, in part due to the fact that he’s one of many pitchers throughout the league that has seen his HR/9 rate and HR/FB ratio spike as balls are leaving the yard at a higher rate than ever before in MLB history. And while his durability and K/BB numbers are impressive, some teams will no doubt express some skepticism that Samardzija would be able to better keep the ball in the yard by vacating the spacious AT&T Park as his home stadium. The remaining money on his contract also figures to be a concern to come clubs, as he represents a fairly sizable commitment to those that are near the luxury tax threshold.
All of that sounds to be mostly a moot point anyhow. Among the teams to which Samardzija can be moved, the Red Sox don’t seem likely to pursue a starter, while the Mets and A’s aren’t contending. The Angels are a fringe contender at best and have luxury tax concerns, while the Nationals are said to be more focused on relievers and may shy away from the money remaining on his deal. It’s at least possible that one of the other teams listed shows some interest, but the Yankees are presently focused on Sonny Gray, while the Cubs have already added Jose Quintana and the Dodgers have been most heavily linked to Yu Darvish (to say nothing of the longstanding Dodgers/Giants division rivalry).