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Quick Hits: White, Matsui, Morales

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Links for Wednesday as the Phillies adjust to the possibility of losing Chase Utley for a while. Click here for Tim Dierkes' list of alternatives for the Phillies and keep reading for today's links…

Quick Hits: Choice, Royals, Feliz, Posey, Lawrie

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If you're a fan of top prospects and rookies, then this Quick Hits post is for you. Here are today's links…

  • Oakland's 2010 first rounder, Michael Choice, is wowing scouts in Arizona, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com (on Twitter). Peter Gammons of MLB Network hears from a trusted scout that Choice has the bat speed, strength and athleticism to become a "monster" (Twitter link). Baseball America ranked the 21-year-old third among Oakland's prospects heading into the season.
  • One GM says the Royals are so deep in talent that they can still be in it in 2013 if a couple of their top prospects miss, according to Gammons (on Twitter).
  • Neftali Feliz has said he's most comfortable closing games, but Rangers GM Jon Daniels says he'll continue stretching the 2010 AL Rookie of the Year out to see if he can make it as a starter, according to Anthony Andro of the Fort-Worth Star Telegram (on Twitter).
  • The Giants and last year's NL Rookie of the Year, Buster Posey, agreed to a one-year deal, according to Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle.  He tweets that the deal is worth $575K.  That's about $150K more than the Giants had to give him.
  • Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos tells Sportsnet.ca's Shi Davidi that Brett Lawrie has looked “very good.” The Blue Jays, who acquired Lawrie for Shaun Marcum over the winter, like the infielder’s work ethic, tools and drive.

Starting Pitchers Linked Entering 2011

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Jeremy Guthrie, Matt Garza, Chad Billingsley and John Danks all went to arbitration for the first time before last season and all settled for contracts in the $3-4MM range. The four pitchers went to arbitration again this offseason and settled for contracts within the $5.75-$6.3MM range. A year from now, they will become points of reference for the class of pitchers just behind them (those currently entering their first seasons as arbitration eligible players). Here's a list of pitchers who could be compared to the quartet above after the 2011 season:

  • Mike Pelfrey, $3.925MM in 2011 - Pelfrey already has a tremendous amount of big league experience and a fourth consecutive season of 30-plus starts could push his 2012 asking price past the $6.28MM Billingsley will earn in 2011, especially considering Pelfrey's high 2011 salary. Pelfrey doesn't have particularly impressive strikeout numbers or ERAs, however, which will help the Mets keep the right-hander's salary in check.
  • Dallas Braden, $3.35MM in 2011 - Garza was working from the same base salary in 2010 and he earned a $2.6MM raise after logging 204 2/3 innings of 3.91 ERA ball in the AL East with a 2.4 K/BB ratio. If Braden wants to match Garza's raise, he'll have to earn it with another big year.
  • Jair Jurrjens, $3.25MM in 2011 - Jurrjens is well-positioned to ask for a salary in the $6MM range next year if he returns to his 2008-09 level of productivity.

Guthrie, Garza, Billingsley and Danks all had relatively healthy, productive seasons in 2010, which kept their 2011 salaries within a $600K range. A poor performance would have disrupted the pattern and the same applies to this year's class. They have to pitch well and stay healthy to earn raises to the $6MM range. Meanwhile, others will have the chance to prove they belong in the same discussion as Pelfrey, Jurrjens and Braden if they have big years.

  • Phil Hughes, $2.7MM in 2011 - Hughes, who has just one full season as a Major League starter, is starting from a lower base salary than the others, so he'd likely need a standout season to approach $6MM in 2012.
  • Brandon Morrow, $2.3MM in 2011 - Morrow doesn't have the bulk numbers his peers do, so he's at a disadvantage. But he has flashed dominant stuff and if he continues pitching the way he did from June on last year, he could justify asking for a larger-than-usual raise.

Other starters, including Edinson Volquez and Kevin Slowey, are also entering their first seasons as arbitration eligible pitchers, but raises to the $6MM range seem extremely improbable given their current salaries and career numbers. The same goes for super two players Armando Galarraga, Kyle Kendrick, Ross Ohlendorf and Luke Hochevar.

Gammons On Prospects, A’s, Kalish, Iglesias

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Peter Gammons appeared on WEEI's Minor Details podcast to discuss the value of a deep minor league system, the difficulty in finding power hitters, and, of course, the Red Sox.  WEEI's Alex Speier has the partial transcript, and here are some of the highlights…

  • The value of top prospects, Gammons notes, is higher than ever before since teams are realizing that it isn't cost-effective to sign free agents when those older players are entering a decline phase.  Dealing for a star player in his prime is now the preferred option for a team like Boston that has a strong minor league system.  “Having three really good prospects and getting Adrian Gonzalez so they won’t have to pay him past the age of 35, I think that’s part of it," Gammons said.
  • To wit, Gammons believes the Yankees will forego trying for a free agent pitcher and instead use their own deep minor league system to acquire a pitcher like Brett Anderson or Gio Gonzalez "if Oakland doesn’t get off to a really good start."  I'm not sure I agree with Gammons on this one.  It's hard to believe the A's would deal Anderson or Gonzalez for anything short of a totally absurd offer, be it from the Yankees or anyone.
  • Shortstop Jose Iglesias and outfielder Ryan Kalish are "without question" going to be regulars for Boston in 2012.  This puts them right on track to succeed incumbents Marco Scutaro and J.D. Drew, who are both in the last year of their contracts.
  • Theo Epstein told Gammons before the 2005 draft that drug testing was going to create "a new game over the next five to 10 years," and then the Sox drafted Jacoby Ellsbury in the first round.  Gammons notes that Boston has yet to develop a consistent power hitter in Epstein's regime, aside from Kevin Youkilis (who was drafted by former Sox GM Dan Duquette).

Crasnick On The A’s Offseason

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The Athletics, much like the Brewers, enjoyed a surprisingly fine offseason, and, not surprisingly, had to get a little bit creative to do so. Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com caught up with A's GM Billy Beane, and here are the highlights:

  • Beane said that, because of the A's financial constraints, their offseason strategy is often dictated by the moves they can't make. Oakland, after all, has a payroll that's about one-quarter the size of the Yankees', writes Crasnick. So, some players are simply going to get better offers from other teams.
  • Such was the case this offseason, when the A's were turned down by free agents Lance Berkman, Adrian Beltre and Hisashi Iwakuma.
  • Instead, the A's chose to make modest, "incremental" changes to their offense, according to Crasnick, improving the corner-outfield spots by trading for David DeJesus and Josh Willingham, and adding free-agent DH Hideki Matsui. And, elsewhere, they wanted to further augment their strengths: pitching and defense. Their strong, young rotation is the team's backbone, and that advantage is compounded by their home park's spacious dimensions and sizable foul territory.
  • Signing a pair of not-cheap relievers in Brian Fuentes and Grant Balfour may seem somewhat uncharacteristic of a scrupulous GM like Beane, especially when he himself has already cultivated a fine bullpen comprised of effective, cost-controlled types, but he had his reasons. "They're too good to be out there, and we had money to afford them," Beane told Crasnick.
  • As well, the A's wanted to defray the workload on the guys already in the bullpen, who logged the 12th-fewest innings in the AL in 2010, according to Crasnick, but were worn down from a taxing 2009 in which they were called upon too frequently.

For a comprehensive list of all the A's offseason moves, check out our Transaction Tracker.

AL East Notes: Yankees, Werth, Pavano, Jays, Rays

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Seven years ago today, the Yankees signed Eduardo Nunez as a free agent out of the Dominican Republic. Now 23, Nunez is in the mix to be New York's utility infielder in 2011 after hitting .280/.321/.360 with more walks (three) than strikeouts (two) in his brief big league debut last season (53 PA).

Here are some more notes that have to do with the Yanks and their fellow AL East clubs…

  • Joel Sherman of The New York Post reports that the Yankees "have told their scouts to bear down on several teams they think could have starters available" in a trade this summer. The teams they are targeting include the Braves, Angels, A's, White Sox, and Cardinals according to Sherman.
  • Jayson Werth told SI.com's Jon Heyman that he had a "great" meeting with the Red Sox earlier this offseason, after which he figured they would offer six years (Twitter link). They only offered five, so he ended up with the Nationals.
  • Carl Pavano spoke to Kelsie Smith of The Pioneer Press about being pursued by the Yankees this offseason. "I don't think [the past] would be a hindrance, but there would have definitely been obstacles," said Pavano. "I'm not naïve enough to think that there wouldn't have been things I would have had to overcome, especially the trust of the fans and maybe some of the guys that were there. That's reality."
  • Richard Griffin of The Toronto Star notes (on Twitter) that four of the Blue Jays' ten highest paid players are former closers: Jason Frasor, Frank Francisco, Jon Rauch, and Octavio Dotel.
  • When asked about the payroll disparity between his Rays and other teams in the division, Joe Maddon told Ken Davidoff of Newsday that he's "never seen a dollar bill throw a strike, or hit a homer, or whatever." (Twitter link)

Offseason In Review: Oakland Athletics

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The Athletics are next in our Offseason In Review series.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Summary

Once again, the Athletics failed to reach agreements with top free agent targets, falling short on attempts to sign Hisashi Iwakuma, Lance Berkman, and Adrian Beltre.  In an earlier post, I explained that Oakland missed on these players for a classic reason: they didn't offer the best contracts.  As ESPN's Jerry Crasnick explained, the A's chose to make modest, incremental upgrades to the offense, and did so by taking the decision out of the player's hands.  Two winters ago they acquired Matt Holliday, and this offseason they did the same by trading for DeJesus and Willingham.

Replacing Cust with Matsui at DH is not necessarily an upgrade, but Cust only accounted for about half of the plate appearances for the A's at that position last year.  The A's come out ahead overall, at about half the price of Berkman.

Willingham

The A's didn't get much offense from the many players appearing at their outfield corners last year, so DeJesus and Willingham add much-needed production at reasonable salaries.  While neither player is a classic slugger, it's not easy to add a couple of .380 OBPs.  GM Billy Beane surrendered several interesting players to rent DeJesus and Willingham, though I wouldn't call the price exorbitant.

Even without Iwakuma, the A's had strong starting pitching depth in the first four spots.  For a mere $2.5MM they added projects Harden and McCarthy.  It's hard to find fault with such low-risk signings.  McCarthy in particular was a hot commodity after teams watched him throw in the Dominican Winter League.

Moneyball comes to the silver screen this year, but I don't think Beane signed Balfour and Fuentes with some kind of cutting-edge market inefficiency in mind.  In fact, signing free agent middle relievers to multiyear, top-dollar deals has proven to be one of the least efficient strategies out there.  After missing out on primary targets, the A's simply felt spending on the bullpen was the best remaining way to improve their team despite the risk involved.  "They're too good to be out there, and we had money to afford them," Beane told Crasnick. Why did the GM shift from overstocking the rotation with a $30MM+ commitment to Iwakuma to bulking up the pen with an $18.6MM expenditure on Balfour and Fuentes?  Perhaps they simply did not like Carl Pavano and the other remaining starters.  I haven't seen any evidence that their Iwakuma bid was insincere.

I like what the A's did at DH and the outfield corners, though moving money to relief extravagances was less than ideal.  They were unable to upgrade at third base, but the A's can't be faulted for the weak market at that position.  It stands to reason that the Athletics have cash on reserve to spend on a midseason hot corner addition, though they'll be at the mercy of the trade market and dealing from a poorly-rated farm system.  The current offense looks better than last year's, though the improvement is mitigated if you don't think their front four starters can post 700 innings of 3.17 ball again.

Photo courtesy Icon SMI.

Quick Hits: Pujols, Crawford, Pavano, Rays, A’s, Mets

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Links for Wednesday, as the Cardinals hope for the best regarding Adam Wainwright's elbow…

  • In today's blog post (Insider req'd), ESPN's Buster Olney writes about the pressure both the Cardinals and Cubs will be under if Albert Pujols hits the open market. He likens Chicago's situation to what the Knicks and Cavaliers faced during last year's LeBron James madness.
  • Carl Crawford told WEEI.com's Dennis & Callahan that the Yankees never made him an offer this offseason, and that he "didn't want to be somebody's backup plan." New York met with Crawford during the winter meetings.
  • SI.com's Jon Heyman heard that the Pirates offered Carl Pavano two years and $13MM while the Yankees offered one-year and $9.75MM with incentives (Twitter link). Pavano eventually rejoined the Twins for two years and $16.5MM.
  • Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports hears "rumblings" that certain big market teams want to "drop" the Athletics and Rays, even though there's little chance it actually happens. Contraction doesn't appear to be on the horizon given revenue streams, and as Rosenthal notes, the player's union would consider the elimation of 50 jobs an "act of war."
  • In a separate article, Rosenthal explores the domino effect Wainwright's injury may have on the Cardinals.
  • Richard Sandomir and Ken Belson of The New York Times report that "a variety of proposals are surfacing that suggest that investors want more than the Mets are offering." The Wilpons are looking to sell about 25% of the team in the wake of the Madoff scandal, but not controlling interest. 
  • Over at RotoAuthority, Tim Dierkes ranks the top fantasy outfielders.

Beane On Beltre, Iwakuma, His Future In Oakland

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A's GM Billy Beane appeared on the "Athletics After Dark" podcast to discuss his team's winter moves, including a few that weren't made.  Here are some of the highlights…

On his overall satisfaction with Oakland's offseason…

  • "It was probably the busiest offseason we've all had since I've been here and we think it's very, very productive."
  • "When it's all said and done we're very pleased with how the winter shaped up.  We improved the offense which we set out to do, and we did it without taking away from a very good defensive team that we had last year.  We were able to improve the pitching which I don't think was necessarily something we set out to do other than maybe looking at the fifth starter spot….While we did need to address the offense, the pitchers that were available were going to help us give up less runs, so in turn we wouldn't have to score as many runs, which is a non-linear way of approaching the issue."

On the Athletics' pursuit of Adrian Beltre…

  • "We're always optimistic and I think we're also realistic, too.  Quite frankly, I've got a very, very good relationship with [Scott Boras] and I really enjoy dealing with him.  He's probably one of the best, if not the best, representatives out there."
  • "Scott was honest with us from the outset of the winter about what he wanted.  It took a while, but [he] ultimately achieved that, and that was beyond our means.  I had no problem with the way the thing played out except for the fact that [Beltre] went to one of our rivals and I think significantly improved [the Rangers]."
  • "Usually you go into the free agent period thinking a player might cost you a certain amount, and in many and most cases, it ends up being more than what you thought it was originally going to be."

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Quick Hits: Athletics, Cabrera, Jeter, Braves, Janssen

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Let's take a look at some links for Monday night..

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