A’s Claim Sheldon Neuse Off Waivers
The Athletics announced that infielder Sheldon Neuse has been claimed off waivers from the Dodgers. Neuse has been in DFA limbo since December 1, as the Dodgers designated him for assignment just before the lockout started.
It’s a reunion of sorts for Neuse and the A’s, as Neuse has spent much of his pro career in the Oakland organization. A second-round pick for the Nationals in the 2016 draft, Neuse was part of the three-player package (along with Jesus Luzardo and Blake Treinen) sent to Oakland in the July 2017 trade that brought Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson to D.C. The Athletics then dealt Neuse to Los Angeles as part of a four-player swap in February 2021.
A pretty well-regarded prospect during his time in the minors, Neuse has a .291/.349/.459 slash line over 1446 career plate appearances at the Triple-A level. Neuse has played mostly as a third baseman but has also seen a lot of time at both middle infield positions and a handful of games as a first baseman and corner outfielder. There is some irony that Neuse is returning to the A’s on the same day that Oakland traded Matt Chapman to the Blue Jays, as Chapman’s presence at third base was one of the reasons the Athletics experimented with Neuse at other positions.
With the A’s now shifting into at least some kind of rebuild mode, it could open the door for Neuse to get a longer look at the big league level. He hasn’t hit much in limited action, with a .207/.236/.314 slash line in 127 PA (61 with the Athletics in 2019 and 66 with the Dodgers last season).
Yankees, A’s Discussing Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas Trades
It has been apparent for months now that the Athletics planned on engaging in a massive fire sale this offseason, shipping out their arbitration-eligible players for younger and cheaper players with more team control. Since the lockout has ended, they’ve fulfilled the prophecy by sending Chris Bassitt to the Mets, Matt Olson to the Braves and Matt Chapman to the Blue Jays. It seems possible that Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas are going to be next in line. In recent days, the two hurlers have been connected to the White Sox and Twins, with Montas also garnering interest from the Rays. We can now add the Yankees to the list of interested parties, per Robert Murray of FanSided and Jon Heyman of MLB Network.
The Yankees have been busy since the end of the lockout, most notably landing Josh Donaldson, Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Ben Rortvedt in a trade with the Twins, as well as last night’s signing of Anthony Rizzo. Despite those additions to the lineup, the pitching staff remains largely unchanged.
The rotation comes with tremendous upside but also has its share of uncertainty beyond ace Gerrit Cole. Jordan Montgomery was excellent last year, but that was after two seasons mostly lost to injury and a shortened 2020 campaign. After throwing 75 1/3 MLB innings over 2018-2020, he shot up to 157 1/3 last year. Similarly, Jameson Taillon only threw 37 1/3 innings in 2019 and then missed all of 2020 before shooting up to 144 1/3 last year and undergoing ankle surgery after the season. Luis Severino only pitched 12 innings in 2019 before being shelved by various injuries and ultimately undergoing Tommy John surgery. After missing all of the 2020 campaign, he was able to return and log six MLB innings last year. Domingo German is dealing with shoulder issues and likely to begin the season on the IL. The club does have other options around, such as Nestor Cortes Jr., Michael King, Clarke Schmidt, Deivi Garcia and Luis Gil, but they all come with question marks of their own due to their limited track records.
Adding in quality arms like those of Manaea and Montas would be a fairly sensible way of providing an extra degree of certainty for the staff. Manaea pitched 179 1/3 innings last year with a 3.91 ERA, 25.7% strikeout rate and 5.4% walk rate. He’s scheduled to hit free agency at the end of the season and is projected to earn a salary of $10.2MM, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. Montas, meanwhile, tossed 187 frames with a 3.37 ERA, 26.6% strikeout rate and 7.3% walk rate. He’s projected for a $5.2MM salary and comes with an extra year of control.
Yankees fans might speculate about whether Luke Voit could be involved in such a trade, now that Rizzo is in the fold. With the Athletics having just traded Olson, they could presumably slot Voit into regular first base duty in Oakland. However, Voit only has three years of club control remaining before he hits free agency, while Oakland has been using this fire sale largely to stock up on prospects or players with very limited MLB exposure. Voit and his projected $5.4MM arbitration salary have more in common with the players Oakland has been trading away than those they’ve been acquiring.
Athletics Trade Matt Chapman To Blue Jays
Oakland’s rapid sell-off and the Blue Jays’ aggressive offseason both continued Wednesday, as the A’s announced that third baseman Matt Chapman has been traded to Toronto in exchange for right-hander Gunnar Hoglund, infielder Kevin Smith, left-hander Zach Logue and left-hander Kirby Snead.
The acquisition of Chapman will give the Blue Jays not only one of the best defensive third basemen in the game but one of the top defensive players in baseball at any position. Since Chapman’s 2017 Major League debut, his 88 Defensive Runs Saved and his 47.3 Ultimate Zone rating both trail only Mookie Betts and Andrelton Simmons among all big leaguers. Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric largely agrees, ranking him tenth among all big league players, regardless of position, since 2017. Indeed, Chapman has twice been recognized as the league’s best all-around defender by being named the league’s Platinum Glove winner.
Of course, Chapman is far from a glove-only player. From 2018-19, he was a legitimate MVP candidate on the strength of his combined offensive and defensive prowess. The former No. 25 overall draft pick posted a .263/.348/.507 slash with 60 home runs while playing his home games at the cavernous Oakland Coliseum during those two seasons, finishing Top 7 in American League MVP voting on both occasions.
Chapman’s offensive production has fallen sharply over the past two seasons, due in no small part to a major hip injury in 2020 that he tried to play through before succumbing to surgery. That procedure both repaired a labrum tear and “cleaned up” the head of his right femur bone. Even as his production has dipped, Chapman has still hit for power (37 home runs, .216 ISO) and drawn plenty of walks (11.4%), but his strikeout rate has spiked from 22.8% in 2018-19 all the way to 33.1% in 2020-21. Over the past two seasons, he’s posted a combined .215/.206/.431 batting line.
The Jays are surely betting that Chapman will bounce back to an extent at the plate now that he’ll be 18 months removed from that September 2020 surgery. However, even if he doesn’t return to his MVP-caliber levels from 2018-19, the new three-true-outcomes version of Chapman was still worth 3.5 wins above replacement per both Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs last season. He’s a pronounced upgrade for a Jays team hoping to make a deep postseason run on the strength of a dominant offense and a rotation that has improved by leaps and bounds in recent seasons.
Chapman’s salary has not yet been settled, as he’s arbitration-eligible and did not settle on a price point with the A’s prior to the lockout. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $9.5MM this coming season and will be owed one more raise for the 2023 campaign before reaching free agency in the 2023-24 offseason. While Jays fans may be looking to Matt Olson‘s swift extension following a trade from Oakland to his hometown Braves, it should be pointed out that as a client of the Boras Corporation, Chapman seems less likely to follow that same trajectory. Still, he’ll be locked in as the Toronto third baseman for at least the next two seasons.
Adding Chapman firmly pushes Cavan Biggio to second base, where he’s better suited to play from a defensive standpoint. Chapman’s range will also play nicely alongside Bo Bichette, who has drawn mixed reviews for his glovework at shortstop. Statcast notes that Bichette is much stronger on balls hit to his left side than those hit to his right, so getting some extra range out of their third baseman will be particularly helpful.
It’s worth pointing out that Chapman isn’t an ideal fit for a Toronto lineup that skews almost entirely right-handed. He’d give them eight pure right-handed hitters in the starting lineup, with Biggio the lone lefty. That right-handed lean was part of the reason that a potential Freddie Freeman fit has seemed so tantalizing for the Jays. This acquisition technically doesn’t rule out a Freeman signing, but it does quash any speculation of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. moving back to third base. That’s in the team’s best interest anyhow, as Guerrero was never a strong defensive option at the hot corner. A theoretical Freeman addition would push Guerrero into a primary designated hitter role earlier in his career than the Jays might’ve liked, but the sheer offensive firepower of that lineup would still make it worth considering. Toronto had been linked to Kyle Schwarber, but he’s now Philadelphia-bound after agreeing to a four-year deal with the Phillies.
Turning the Oakland’s return, they’ll acquire one high-end but far-off pitching prospect, Hoglund, and a trio of largely MLB-ready pieces in Smith, Logue and Snead. Hoglund was the No. 19 overall draft pick in 2021 and might well have gone in the Top 10 selections had he not required Tommy John surgery during last year’s NCAA season. The former Ole Miss ace was largely regarded as one of the top college arms in the draft after pitching to a 2.41 ERA with a sky-high 39% strikeout rate against a strong 6.1% walk rate.
Baseball America ranked him fifth among Toronto farmhands, while FanGraphs pegged him No. 3 in the Toronto system. Much of Hoglund’s future depends on how he recovers from Tommy John surgery, but he’d been described as an advanced college arm with mid-rotation upside and a potential quick path to the big leagues.
Smith, 25, ought to step right into the Athletics’ Opening Day lineup. He went just 3-for-32 in a brief big league cup of coffee late in the 2021 season, but that’s overshadowed by a big .285/.370/.561 batting line in Triple-A last year. Smith, ranked seventh among Jays prospects at BA and 16th at FanGraphs, smacked 21 home runs, 27 doubles and four triples while also going 18-for-21 in stolen base attempts in that outstanding Triple-A campaign. BA ranked him as the game’s No. 91 prospect in the 2018-19 offseason, and while a poor first showing in Triple-A dropped his stock, last year’s excellent rebound restored a good bit of faith in his abilities.
The Jays played Smith primarily at shortstop during his time in Triple-A, but he also has 651 professional innings at third base and 161 innings of work at second base. Scouting reports peg him as a capable but not-elite defender at short. Given the presence of all-world defensive prospect Nick Allen in the upper tiers of the Oakland system, it seems quite possible that Smith’s eventual home with the A’s will be either third base or second base.
As for the two pitchers, Logue has a chance to be in the Oakland rotation before long. The 25-year-old (26 in April) was Toronto’s ninth-round pick in 2017 and has greatly elevated his status, thanks in part to a nice showing between Double-A and Triple-A this past season. In 125 innings between the two levels, Logue notched a 3.67 ERA with a strong 28.2% strikeout rate, an even better 5.3% walk rate and a 38% ground-ball rate. That he’s a fly-ball pitcher moving to Oakland as opposed to Toronto’s more hitter-friendly Rogers Centre can only help his chances of becoming a quality big league contributor.
Logue ranked 24th among Jays prospects at BA, where he was labeled one of the system’s “most improved” players in 2021 and touted as a potential back-end starter. FanGraphs tabbed him 10th in the Toronto system, praising his plus changeup, plus command and above-average cutter. Scouting reports generally don’t peg Logue as more than a fourth starter, but if he’s able to realize that potential, there’s quite a bit of value in six-plus seasons of a No. 4 starter.
Snead, 27, gives the A’s an MLB-ready bullpen piece who made his big league debut late in the ’21 season. Snead allowed three runs (two earned) on seven hits and a pair of walks with seven strikeouts through his first 7 2/3 big league innings last year. That marked the continuation of an excellent season in Triple-A, where he’d notched a 1.58 ERA with a huge 36.1% strikeout rate, a 10.1% walk rate and a massive 63.3% ground-ball rate.
Unlike many lefties, Snead has no issues containing right-handed opponents in 2021. While he was still better against left-handers, who posted an awful .141/.222/.203 against him (Majors and Triple-A combined), right-handers were similarly futile. Even when batters held the platoon advantage, they mustered only a .186/.278/.245 output against Snead. He’s been a pure reliever throughout his professional career, but that dominance against both righties and lefties mitigates any specialist concerns and gives him the chance to be a multi-inning option. Snead has pitched 236 1/3 innings through 186 minor league appearances, so he’s no stranger to working more than an inning at a time.
The trade of an All-Star third baseman to the Blue Jays for a four-player package consisting of three largely MLB-ready pieces and one further-off but high-upside prospect will do little to quell comparisons to the 2014 Josh Donaldson blockbuster. That trade, which brought Franklin Barreto, Brett Lawrie, Kendall Graveman and Sean Nolin to Oakland, didn’t pan out as the front office hoped, but today’s swap is a separate deal, eerie similarities notwithstanding. The A’s have added a notable influx of talent to their system, and the Chapman return in particular features the largest crop of MLB-ready talent they’ve picked up thus far in their offseason dealings.
The Chapman trade marks the latest step in the dismantling of a roster that was largely foreseeable but is nevertheless disheartening for the fanbase. Chapman follows fan favorites Olson and Chris Bassitt out the door, and it’s unlikely Oakland will stop its roster purge with those three. Lefty Sean Manaea, a free agent at season’s end, seems all but certain to be traded. Right-hander Frankie Montas, center fielder Ramon Laureano and reliever Lou Trivino all have multiple seasons of club control remaining but still could change hands. Montas, in particular, has been a target for pitching-hungry clubs. Looking ahead, it’s not really a question of whether any of those players will be traded — but rather one of who’ll be the next to go.
Former All-Star second baseman Carlos Baerga first reported on Instagram that a trade agreement was in place. Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi reported Oakland’s return for Chapman (Twitter link).
White Sox Discussing Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas Trades With A’s
It’s been long suspected that the Athletics were going to undergo a roster teardown after the lockout. Those predictions have been coming true in recent days, as the club has already traded Chris Bassitt to the Mets and Matt Olson to the Braves. Among their most likely trade candidates, they still have third baseman Matt Chapman, along with starting pitchers Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas. When it comes to those pitchers, the White Sox are among the teams interested, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman.
The Pale Hose already have an excellent front three in their rotation with Lance Lynn, Lucas Giolito and Dylan Cease. However, there are some question marks in the backend. For one, Dallas Keuchel had a rough season last year, throwing 162 innings with an ERA of 5.28. As for Michael Kopech, he missed most of 2018 and all of 2019 due to Tommy John surgery and then opted out of the 2020 pandemic season. Last year was mostly about getting him re-acclimated to pitching and building up his arm strength. While he fared well, putting up an ERA of 3.50, he only amassed 69 1/3 innings. While he may be able to handle a starter’s workload this year, it’s certainly not a sure thing.
In terms of depth, the club has Jonathan Stiever and Jimmy Lambert on the 40-man. Both are optionable and likely to be in Triple-A until an injury creates a need for their services. Vince Velasquez was also just signed to bolster the depth, perhaps serving as a long man out of the bullpen to start the year.
Adding Manaea or Montas to this group and bumping everyone down a peg would surely bolster the staff as a whole. Manaea pitched 179 1/3 innings last year with a 3.91 ERA, 25.7% strikeout rate and 5.4% walk rate. He’s scheduled to hit free agency at the end of the season and is projected to earn a salary of $10.2MM, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. Montas, meanwhile, tossed 187 frames with a 3.37 ERA, 26.6% strikeout rate and 7.3% walk rate. He’s projected for a $5.2MM salary and comes with an extra year of control.
One obstacle the White Sox might face is their farm system, or lack thereof. On Baseball America’s most recent Organization Talent Rankings, the club’s system came dead last. In order to pull off a major trade, they would have to further deplete what it already arguably the weakest system in the league.
However, the club will surely want to take advantage of what is a very strong MLB team that just made the postseason in back-t0-back seasons for the first time in their 120-year history. With the Twins and Guardians still aiming to compete and the Tigers making strong moves to emerge from a rebuild, the South Siders may be willing to take that hit to strike while their competitive window is wide open.
Outfield Market Rumors: Laureano, Castellanos, Soler, Pederson
While he isn’t drawing as many headlines as some of his teammates, Athletics outfielder Ramon Laureano is among the team’s more popular trade targets, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Interest in Laureano is only natural, given Oakland’s willingness to listen on virtually any player and the dearth of center-field options remaining in free agency. That said, Laureano’s trade candidacy is a bit muddier than that of teammates like Matt Chapman, Frankie Montas, Sean Manaea and Lou Trivino.
The 27-year-old Laureano is currently in the midst of an 80-game PED ban that still has 27 games left to serve. Prior to the suspension, Laureano was on pace to reach free agency following the 2024 season, but the service time he’ll miss due to this suspension now makes it appear likely that his path to free agency will be pushed back until after the 2025 campaign. With a potential four seasons of control over Laureano as opposed to three, the A’s may be less inclined to part ways with him — or at least to ask a higher price in return.
Since coming over from the Astros as a generally unheralded prospect in the 2017-18 offseason, Laureano has given the A’s 313 games and 1257 plate appearances of .263/.335/.465 production while playing strong defense around the outfield. He’s swatted 49 home runs and swiped 34 bases in that time as well.
Some more notes on the outfield market as a whole…
- In the hours after Derek Jeter left the Marlins, reports indicated that part of the rift that had grown between Jeter and principal owner Bruce Sherman stemmed from a shift in Sherman’s payroll expectations. Nick Castellanos, in particular, was a rumored target of Jeter, with MLB Network’s Jon Heyman suggesting that Jeter had been willing to green-light a five-year offer for the front office to put forward. While Sherman himself pushed back on those reports just this week and emphasized that the Marlins plan to spend money post-lockout, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald tweets that the Marlins’ pursuit of Castellanos has indeed cooled off considerably. Ownership, according to Jackson, is no longer comfortable making that type of commitment to Castellanos. That said, Jackson emphasizes that the Castellanos shift is “not the main reason Jeter is gone” but rather one of many issues that contributed to the divide between Jeter and Sherman. Jackson writes that they’ve checked in with the reps for free agent corner outfielder Jorge Soler, who turned things around upon a midseason trade from the Royals to the Braves last season.
- The Guardians are among the teams with interest in free-agent outfielder Joc Pederson, tweets MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. Beyond center fielder Myles Straw, there’s little to no certainty in the Cleveland outfield. Highly-regarded prospect Steven Kwan appears ready for a look after a huge showing between Double-A and Triple-A last year, but he’s yet to actually make his MLB debut. Meanwhile, Bradley Zimmer and Oscar Mercado both turned in below-average performances at the plate. The Guardians seem all but certain to bring in some outfield help, and Pederson would make sense as a potential platoon pairing with Mercado, who batted .294/.381/.435 against lefties even in a down year overall.
- Thomas Harding of MLB.com tweets that the Rockies have also shown some interest in Joc Pederson. Colorado has been linked to bigger-ticket outfielders in their search for offensive help, although it seems Pederson’s at least on the radar as a possible fallback option. The past two seasons have been fairly disappointing for Pederson, who looked like a middle-of-the-order caliber bat (at least against right-handed pitching) during his early days with the Dodgers. Since the start of 2020, he’s a .227/.304/.416 hitter over 619 plate appearances.
Rays Among Teams Interested In Matt Chapman, Seiya Suzuki
The Rays are among the teams with interest in Athletics third baseman Matt Chapman, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, and they’re also one of the teams still bidding on star NPB outfielder Seiya Suzuki. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal hears the same, adding that Tampa Bay has also spoken to Oakland about right-hander Frankie Montas.
Either of the two bats listed would represent large-scale expenditures, at least by the Rays’ generally modest standards. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a $9.5MM salary for Chapman this season, and he’d be eligible for arbitration one final time next offseason before reaching the open market upon conclusion of the 2023 season. Suzuki, meanwhile, is drawing interest from a wide field of teams and figures to command a weighty multi-year deal himself.
The 28-year-old Chapman’s offensive production has taken a nosedive in recent years after a pair of MVP-caliber seasons in 2018-19. Since Opening Day 2020, Chapman has managed a .215/.306/.431 batting line, still showing good power (.216 ISO, 37 homers in 774 plate appearances) but with an alarming jump from a 22.8% strikeout rate to a 33.1% mark. Chapman’s 2020 season was cut short by hip surgery, though, and it’s possible that the injury which led to that operation and the lingering aftereffects have hampered him at the dish.
Where Chapman hasn’t missed a beat is with the glove. A two-time Platinum Glove winner and three-time Gold Glover at the hot corner, Chapman is widely regarded as one of the best defensive players in the sport. His 78 Defensive Runs Saved since debuting in 2017 are the third-most in baseball, at any position, trailing only Mookie Betts (81) and Andrelton Simmons (79). Chapman ranks third in MLB in Ultimate Zone Rating during that time as well, trailing that same pair. Meanwhile, Statcast ranks him 10th among all big leaguers with 49 Outs Above Average in that same time.
As for Suzuki, he’s been posted by the Hiroshima Carp and will head to the Majors in the midst of his prime, at age 27. Suzuki is generally regarded as one of the best players in Japan at the moment, if not the best overall. He turned in a mammoth .317/.433/.636 batting line with 38 home runs, 26 doubles and nine steals in 533 plate appearances this past season in NPB, all while walking 87 times against 88 strikeouts (16.3% vs. 16.5%). This was far from a one-year fluke; dating back to 2018, Suzuki’s right-handed bat has produced a dominant .319/.435/.592 slash line with 121 home runs, 115 doubles and four triples in 2179 plate appearances.
Rays fans may be a bit skeptical after seeing their team’s two-year, $12MM investment in Yoshi Tsutsugo quickly go south. However, Suzuki is younger and far more highly regarded as a player than Tsutsugo was at the time of his own free-agent foray. Even in NPB, Tsutsugo came with considerable strikeout concerns and minimal defensive value. The variance in opinions seems likely to be reflected in the size of contract Suzuki ultimately commands. Prior to Suzuki’s formal posting, multiple team evaluators told MLBTR that Suzuki could be an everyday corner outfielder in the big leagues. One particularly bullish evaluator called Suzuki the best player to come out of Japan since Shohei Ohtani (not a direct comparison between the two, to be clear).
Looking to Montas, he’d give the Rays a big-time arm to plug into a rotation that looks heavily reliant on younger talent. Tampa Bay is hoping for a bounceback from Ryan Yarbrough and better health from offseason signee Corey Kluber, but the group beyond that pairing consists of Yonny Chirinos (returning from Tommy John surgery), Shane McClanahan, Luis Patino, Drew Rasmussen and Shane Baz. It’s an undeniably talented collection of starters, but Montas would provide some more stability and arguably more upside than some of those current options.
The 28-year-old (29 next week) just wrapped up a 2021 season that saw him post a career-high 187 frames with a 3.37 ERA, a 26.6% strikeout rate and a 7.3% walk rate. Projected by Swartz to earn $5.8MM next season, Montas is controlled through 2023 and is one of many players the rebuilding A’s are open to moving. He missed the second half of the 2019 season while serving an 80-game PED suspension and struggled in his 2020 return, but last year’s standout showing netted Montas a sixth-place finish in American League Cy Young voting. Unlike Chapman and Suzuki, his current salary is a bit more in the Rays’ general wheelhouse.
Ultimately, though, the payroll is going to be pivotal in determining just how big the Rays can go. Tampa Bay is currently projected for an $85.4MM Opening Day mark that would represent a new franchise record. That said, there have also been reports about possible trades of Kevin Kiermaier ($12MM salary), Austin Meadows (projected $4.3MM) and/or Tyler Glasnow (projected $5.8MM — any of which could alter the team’s immediate and 2023 financial outlooks. Glasnow, notably, is expected to miss most of the 2022 season while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery.
Athletics Trade Matt Olson To Braves
The Freddie Freeman era in Atlanta appears all but over. The Braves announced Monday that they’ve acquired All-Star first baseman Matt Olson from the Athletics in exchange for a hefty package of minor league talent: center fielder Cristian Pache, catcher Shea Langeliers and right-handers Ryan Cusick and Joey Estes. While some Atlanta fans may hold out hope that the implementation of the universal designated hitter leaves open the possibility for both Olson and Freeman to coexist on the same roster, Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos implied otherwise when discussing the trade with reporters. Anthopoulos held back tears today, calling the Olson trade the hardest transaction he’s ever had to make — a clear allusion to the team’s plans for Freeman (or lack thereof).
As is the case with Anthopoulos, the acquisition of Olson will be a bittersweet one for many Braves fans. While Olson is an elite first baseman with Atlanta roots, it’s long been difficult to fathom Freeman, the 2020 National League MVP, ultimately moving on and signing with a new team. Freeman was a homegrown star in every sense of the word, going from No. 78 overall draft pick in 2007 to a five-time All-Star, league MVP and World Series champion. He’s spent the past 12 seasons in Atlanta, thanks in large part to an eight-year, $135MM contract extension that kept him in Braves gear long beyond his arbitration years. Freeman has become synonymous with the Braves, but it now appears all but certain that this is a changing of the guard.
As far as replacements for Freeman go, it’s tough to dream up a better option than the Atlanta-born Olson, however. Set to turn 28 later this month, Olson is a two-time Gold Glover at first base who just wrapped up a career year that netted him his first All-Star nod. Over the past three years, Olson has cemented himself as one of the premier power threats in the game, swatting 89 home runs and 65 doubles while playing his home games in the cavernous Oakland Coliseum. This past season, Olson shed the “strikeout-prone” label when he cut his strikeout rate from 27.5% in 2019-20 all the way down to 16.8%. He did so while maintaining an excellent 13.1% walk rate and turning in the finest overall season of his career: .271/.371/.540 with a career-high 39 home runs.
Of course, Olson is far more than your prototypical bat-first, slugging first baseman. He’s a two-time Gold Glove winner who happens to lead all Major League first basemen with 34 Defensive Runs Saved dating back to 2017 (despite playing in just 59 games that year). Olson’s 22.8 Ultimate Zone Rating is also tops among first basemen in that span, and his 15 Outs Above Average (per Statcast) rank sixth in that same span. There’s an argument to be made that bittersweet as the change might be for Braves fans, Freeman is being replaced by the most well-rounded, prime-aged first baseman in the game.
The Braves will control Olson for at least the next two seasons, as he’s currently sitting on four-plus years of Major League service time. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a $12MM salary for Olson this coming season, and he’ll be due one more raise on that sum before qualifying as a free agent after the 2023 season. Of course, the Braves could well look to sign Olson to a long-term deal that would keep him with his hometown club far longer than those remaining two years of control. Atlanta reportedly balked at going six or more years on a potential Freeman extension, but Olson is four and a half years younger than Freeman, which could alleviate concerns about an eventual decline in the late stages of a long-term deal.
Just as it’s difficult for the Braves’ faithful to process the change, Athletics fans are surely reeling from the news as well. While periodic sell-offs of this nature have become second nature for Oakland diehards, the current core is one of the more talented and recognizable groups in recent memory. Olson was a fan favorite and beloved player at the Coliseum, but his departure begins to pave the way for what the A’s hope will be its next core group.
Pache and Langeliers are the true headliners here, though all four prospects ranked among the top 15 or so in the Braves’ farm. Pache, 23, has seen his stock dip a bit since being ranked as baseball’s No. 7 prospect (per Baseball America) in the 2020-21 offseason. That’s due both to a poor showing at the plate in the big leagues and a fairly pedestrian output in Triple-A Gwinnett. Pache received just 68 big league plate appearances in ’21 and batted .111/.152/.206, though it’s tough to glean much of anything from such a small sample. His work in Triple-A was more encouraging but not on par with his strong 2019 campaign in Double-A; in 353 trips to the plate with Gwinnett this past season, Pache batted .265/.330/.414.
Offense has never been projected to be Pache’s primary selling point, however. That’s not to say he couldn’t develop into a solid big leaguer at the plate, of course, but much of his prospect allure has come from the fact that he’s a plus runner who received 80 grades for his defensive upside in the outfield. Considering the huge space he’ll now have to patrol at the Coliseum, that’s a particularly valuable skill to have. And, if Pache can turn in something close to his lifetime .280/.330./406 slash from the minor leagues, he ought to be able to solidify himself as a highly valuable big leaguer before long. Pache is still near universally regarded among the sport’s top 100 prospects.
Turning to the 24-year-old Langeliers, he’ll give the A’s another potential high-end catcher before long. Sean Murphy is the incumbent option there and had a fine season in ’21, but Langeliers was the No. 9 overall pick in 2019 and is fresh off a .256/.339/.494 showing between Double-A and a brief stop in Triple-A. Baseball America ranked Langeliers 54th among all prospects, calling him an excellent defender with a “cannon” arm and above-average power. That he reached Triple-A already in 2021, albeit only for five games, speaks to his proximity to the Majors. Langeliers also ranks as baseball’s No. 70 prospect at FanGraphs and No. 80 at The Athletic.
With Langeliers now perhaps the future behind the plate, Oakland will at least have the ability to more comfortably listen to offers on Murphy if they see fit. Murphy is controlled another four seasons and just won a Gold Glove while popping 17 home runs, but he’ll reach arbitration next year — around the time Langeliers is likely to be ready for an everyday audition at the big league level.
As for Cusick and Estes, both are well regarded in their own regard, even if they haven’t received the type of national attention that Pache and Langeliers have. Cusick was Atlanta’s first-round pick just last summer, joining the organization after posting huge strikeout totals during his sophomore and junior seasons at Wake Forest (37% overall). The 6’6″, 235-pound righty sits in the upper 90s with a heater that has touched 102 mph.
Command was an issue for Cusick in college, but in 16 1/3 innings with Low-A Augusta last season, Cusick punched out more than half of the 67 hitters he faced while issuing just four walks. It remains to be seen whether he can sustain those gains, but there’s huge potential if he can indeed refine his command. If not, a triple-digit fastball and this type of bat-missing ability will surely play up as a potential late-inning reliever. He was generally regarded among the system’s 10 best overall prospects.
As for the 20-year-old Estes, he was the Braves’ 16th-round selection in 2019 but has quickly elevated his profile. Drafted out Paraclete High School in Lancaster, Calif., Estes had a nondescript pro debut that lasted 10 innings in ’19, didn’t pitch due to the canceled 2020 minor league season and then broke out with a monster year as Cusick’s teammate in Low-A Augusta. Through 20 starts, a total of 99 innings, Estes notched a 2.91 ERA with a 32.1% strikeout rate and a 7.3% walk rate. He was an extreme fly-ball pitcher in 2021 (33.2% grounder rate), but that’s not a huge concern for the A’s, given their spacious home environs. Estes’ success came despite being nearly three years younger than the average competition he faced. While he and Cusick are both at least one, if not two full seasons away from making a big league impact, they both add some considerable upside to an Oakland system that was generally regarded among the thinnest in the sport.
“This is the cycle for the A’s,” Forst said back in early November when addressing reports of a likely payroll reduction. “We have to listen and be open to whatever comes out of this. This is our lot in Oakland until it’s not.” Those foreboding words have already manifested in the trade of two popular and productive A’s stars, and there’s little sense expecting that Oakland will put a foot on the brakes now. They’ve secured four new pitching prospects and a pair of ballyhooed close-to-the-Majors position players already (Pache, Langeliers), and things are likely just getting started.
As for the Braves, the acquisition of Olson will turn the page on perhaps the team’s most iconic player since Hall of Famer Chipper Jones. The 2020 MVP crowning for Freeman was a high note in his career, but the team’s storybook World Series run, with Freeman at the heart of the charge, will make an even more fitting end to this chapter in the team’s history. Olson will have major shoes to fill at Truist Park, but so long as he carries on at something near the .254/.348/.515 pace he’s tallied over his past 564 Major League games, the Braves will be in good hands.
ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported that trade and all five players involved (Twitter thread).
Twins, A’s Have Discussed Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas
Continuing on with the frenetic pace they’ve set in recent days, the Twins have been discussing trade possibilities with the Athletics, tweets MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. Minnesota and Oakland have discussed scenarios that would send lefty Sean Manaea or right-hander Frankie Montas to the Twins.
The Twins and A’s were logical trade partners coming out of the lockout, given Minnesota’s dire need for rotation help and the fact that Oakland had at least three starters expected to be available: Manaea, Montas and the since-traded Chris Bassitt (who was dealt to the Mets this weekend). The Twins have already upgraded their starting staff by plucking Sonny Gray from the Reds in Sunday afternoon trade, but there are still clear holes to fill in a rotation that presently includes Gray, Dylan Bundy and youngsters Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan.
Either Manaea or Montas would further deepen a rapidly changing Twins roster. The former figures to be more attainable and have a lower price tag than the latter, as Manaea will be a free agent at season’s end. Montas, meanwhile, is controlled through the 2023 season via arbitration.
A former No. 34 overall draft pick, the 30-year-old Manaea has come roaring back from 2018 shoulder surgery to reestablish himself as a quality big league starter. Since returning late in the 2019 season, Manaea has tossed 263 innings of 3.73 ERA ball with an above-average 24.8% strikeout rate and a fantastic 5.2% walk rate. Manaea made 11 starts during the Covid-shortened 2020 season and took the ball 32 times last year while racking up 179 1/3 innings, so the shoulder issues that derailed his 2018-19 seasons look to be in the past. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $10.2MM this coming season.
Montas, who’ll turn 29 in a week, just wrapped a career year with the A’s. The 2021 season was the first time in Montas’ big league career that he crossed the 100-inning threshold, but he nearly jumped all the way to 200 frames, racking up 187 innings of 3.37 ERA ball to go along with a 26.6% strikeout rate and 7.3% walk rate. Montas averaged 96.6 mph on his heater and posted huge marks in swinging-strike rate (13.7%) and opponents’ chase rate (35.9%). He’s projected to earn $5.2MM in arbitration this year.
It should be noted that Montas did miss significant time in 2019 after being hit with an 80-game PED suspension, and he struggled considerably in his return to the mound in 2020 (5.60 ERA in 53 innings/11 starts). That said, Montas has consistently posted strong strikeout and walk rates in his big league career and would, as is the case with the recently acquired Gray, give the Twins a key rotation piece for at least the next two seasons. Accordingly, the cost to acquire him figures to be higher than the cost to acquire Manaea.
Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey has said in the hours since completing last night’s Josh Donaldson deal with the Yankees that Minnesota has many irons in the fire, and talks with the A’s figure to just be one of many possibilities they’re exploring. Minnesota has, in the past few days, traded Mitch Garver to Texas in a deal to acquire Isiah Kiner-Falefa; traded pitching prospect Chase Petty to the Reds to acquire Gray; and traded Kiner-Falefa, Donaldson and catcher Ben Rortvedt to the Yankees in a deal that netted Gary Sanchez, Gio Urshela and upwards of $40MM in salary relief. They’ve since been rumored to have interest in free agent shortstop Trevor Story. That, paired with the acquisition of Gray and talks with Oakland, show that even amid a dramatic roster reshaping, Minnesota is aiming to contend in the AL Central for the 2022 season.
Yankees Pessimistic On Chances Of Signing Freddie Freeman
The Yankees are pessimistic on free agent first baseman Freddie Freeman, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network. The Yankees have also thus far said no to an ask of top prospect Anthony Volpe plus more for Oakland first baseman Matt Olson, Heyman explains. As such, a reunion with free agent Anthony Rizzo is suggested to be “the most realistic” first base addition for the Yankees.
Three days ago, Heyman wrote that the Dodgers and Braves are the most likely landing spots for Freeman, who reportedly has sought a six-year deal. The Yankees have since revamped the left side of the infield, shipping out Gio Urshela and adding Josh Donaldson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa from the Twins. The Yanks still have Luke Voit, DJ LeMahieu, and Gleyber Torres on the roster, so further adjustments may be coming.
Volpe, ranked by Baseball America as the tenth best prospect in the game, isn’t necessarily an unreasonable request by the A’s. Recent precedent for trading a five-WAR type player in the offseason with two years of control is rare, but the Marlins were able to land Sixto Sanchez and others when shopping J.T. Realmuto three years ago. Other clubs known to be in the mix for Olson include the Guardians, Rangers, Padres, and naturally the Braves if they lose Freeman.
Rizzo posted a 113 wRC+ for the Yankees in 200 plate appearances after coming over from the Cubs at the trade deadline.
Guardians Among Teams Exploring Matt Olson Trade
Matt Olson is among the highest-profile trade targets on the market at the moment, and although the teams most often linked to him have been the Yankees, Rangers and Braves (presumably as a fallback if Freddie Freeman signs elsewhere), Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets that the Guardians are also “in the mix” for the Athletics’ All-Star first baseman. Cleveland is currently exploring upgrades of varying quality at first base, in the outfield and in the bullpen, Rosenthal adds.
Armed with one of the deepest farm systems in the sport, the Guardians could easily put together a compelling package to pry Olson from Oakland. Cleveland is particularly deep in terms of controllable middle infield prospects, with shortstops Brayan Rocchio, Jose Tena, Tyler Freeman and Gabriel Arias all climbing the ranks behind presumptive big league double-play tandem Amed Rosario and Andres Gimenez.
It’s possible that Gimenez himself could be of interest to the A’s or another trade partner; the 23-year-old switch-hitter struggled in 210 plate appearances with Cleveland last season but had a big showing in Triple-A and isn’t far removed from being regarded as one of the sport’s most promising prospects himself. He’s also controllable via arbitration through at least the 2026 season. Of course, Cleveland is deep in prospects at other positions as well. Outfielders George Valera and Steven Kwan, righty Daniel Espino and third baseman/outfielder Nolan Jones have all garnered attention on prospect rankings.
As for the fit regarding Olson, it’s a pretty straightforward one. No team in baseball got less production from its first basemen than Cleveland did in ’21. Bobby Bradley, Yu Chang, Jake Bauers, Owen Miller, Josh Naylor and even Harold Ramirez (two plate appearances) and Roberto Perez (one plate appearance) all saw time in the lineup at first base but combined for a disastrous .207/.275/.389 batting line. Olson, meanwhile, hit a career-best .271/.371/.540 while blasting 39 home runs and playing his typical brand of Gold Glove caliber defense.
The question for the Guardians is whether they’d be able to retain Olson beyond the 2023 season, when he’s currently scheduled to become a free agent. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Olson to earn $12MM in arbitration this coming season, and he’d be owed one more raise for that ’23 campaign. If Olson replicates this past season’s production, he’d surely command more than $30MM in total over the next two seasons.
That’s a steep price for a Guardians club that is also looking at two more years of control over franchise cornerstone Jose Ramirez. A perennial MVP candidate, Ramirez has seen his own name bandied about the rumor mill, though he’s seemed like a long-shot, at best, to be moved this offseason. On the one hand, pairing up Ramirez and Olson would give the Guardians a dynamic heart-of-the-order pairing around which to build for the next two years.
It’d be a surprise to see the typically low-payroll Guardians extend both (or even one) to the type of nine-figure deal either could command, but a 2022-23 core of Olson, Ramirez, Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale and Franmil Reyes would give Cleveland plenty of high-quality talent at the heart of the roster. And, if things did truly go south and push the front office to consider a sell-off, both Olson and Ramirez would remain among the most sought-after players available whenever they hit the market.