Don Gullett Passes Away
The Reds announced that former big leaguer Don Gullett passed away today at the age of 73. “Don dedicated 24 years to this franchise as a player, coach and minor league instructor,” Reds CEO Bob Castellini said in a statement. “An anchor on the pitching staff of one of the greatest baseball teams in history, his contributions to our rich tradition, our city and his community will never be forgotten.”
Born in Lynn, Kentucky in 1951, Gullett went on to be a three-sport athlete at McKell High School in South Shore, Kentucky, including excelling in baseball as a left-handed pitcher. He was selected by the Reds in the first round of the 1969 draft.
Despite being just 19 years old, he was able to make his major league debut with the Reds in 1970. That was the first of seven seasons he spent with the Reds, suiting up for them from 1970 to 1976. He appeared in 236 games for the Reds over that stretch, including 156 starts, logging 1,187 innings. He allowed 3.03 earned runs per nine frames in that time, with a record of 91 wins, 44 losses and also recording 11 saves.
This was a great era for the club, as the Reds won the National League West in five of those seven seasons. They won the NL pennant in four of them and hoisted the World Series trophy in 1975 and ’76. In the ’75 World Series, Gullett started the first game for the Reds and kept the game scoreless through six innings. But things came off the rails in the seventh, with the Red Sox scoring six and eventually holding on to win 6-0. Gullett got the ball again in the fifth game, with the series now knotted at two games apiece. He tossed 8 2/3 innings, allowing two earned runs as the Reds won 6-2. After a travel day, three days of heavy rain delayed Game Six, which was eventually won by Boston thanks to Carlton Fisk‘s legendary home run. In Game Seven, Gullett started and allowed three earned runs over four innings, with the Reds eventually emerging victorious 4-3.
In ’76, Gullett started Game One and allowed one run over 7 1/3, with the Reds eventually sweeping the Yankees. That was his last appearance as a Red, as he reached free agency and signed with the Yankees. In ’77, he made 22 starts for the Yanks with a 3.58 ERA. The Yanks won the East and got by the Royals in the ALCS, earning a spot in the World Series against the Dodgers. Gullett started Game One and went 8 1/3, allowing three earned runs, with the Yanks eventually winning 4-3 in 12 innings. He started again in Game 5 with the Yankees up 3-1 in the series but was lit up and didn’t get through the fifth. The Yanks lost that game but won the series in Game Six, with Reggie Jackson‘s historic three-homer performance highlighting the clincher.
Gullett returned to the Yanks in ’78 but shoulder problems limited him to just eight starts in what would eventually be his final season in the big leagues. His playing career finished with him having a record of 109-50 after having tossed 1,390 innings with a 3.11 ERA. He added another 93 frames in the postseason with a 3.77 ERA while winning three straight World Series rings. Later in life, he served as the Reds’ pitching coach from 1993 to 2005.
We at MLBTR join the rest of the baseball world in sending our condolences to Gullett’s family, friends, fans and many associates through the game.
Phillies Designate McKinley Moore For Assignment
The Phillies have made their previously-reported deal with right-hander Spencer Turnbull official, announcing that they have signed him to a one-year contract. To open a spot on the 40-man roster, fellow righty McKinley Moore was designated for assignment.
Moore, 25, has powerful stuff but serious control issues. Last year, he was able to make his major league debut, getting into three contests and tossing 3 1/3 innings. He averaged 97.2 miles per hour with his fastball in that time but issued five walks and allowed seven earned runs.
He was optioned to the minors and spent some time on the injured list down on the farm. He tossed 29 2/3 innings at different levels with a tiny ERA of 0.91, but paired his 38.4% strikeout rate with an 18.4% walk rate.
That’s generally been the recipe with Moore to this point in his career. He has split his minor league time between the White Sox and Phillies, switching orgs as part of the 2022 Adam Haseley trade. He has faced 605 hitters in the minors and struck out 199 of them, a strong 32.9% rate, but his 86 walks make for a 14.2% clip.
Despite those control issues, he is still young and has a couple of option years remaining. He could appeal to a club in search of some extra bullpen depth and perhaps a bit of patience for a long-term project. Matt Gelb of The Athletic relays that there is expected to be trade interest from other clubs around the league. The Phils will have one week to work out some kind of deal or pass Moore through waivers.
Young: Rangers Do Not Expect Further Additions
Rangers fans have been holding out hope for a reunion with left-hander Jordan Montgomery, but general manager Chris Young threw plenty of cold water on that possibility Wednesday, telling the team’s beat that any notable acquisitions are unlikely at this point (link via Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News).
“I don’t think there are any additions coming at this point,” Young candidly stated. While he maintained that the Rangers will “keep an open mind” on free agents (including Montgomery), he also noted that long-term uncertainty regarding the team’s television contract “is real” and has impacted spending this offseason — even on the heels of a World Series win.
The lack of marquee additions has frustrated some fans who’ve grown accustomed to lavish free agent expenditures in recent years. The Rangers famously spent more than a half billion dollars to sign Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Jon Gray two offseasons ago and followed that with a pitching-heavy attack in free agency last winter, signing Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney for a combined $234MM. Texas also picked up two high-profile arms at last year’s deadline when acquiring Montgomery and future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer. Montgomery, of course, is a free agent and remains unsigned. Scherzer will be sidelined into June or July following offseason back surgery.
Currently, Roster Resource projects the Rangers for a franchise-record $220MM payroll. That comes with $243MM worth of luxury tax obligations, setting the stage for Texas to be a luxury payor for the second straight season. Texas only paid $1.8MM in luxury fees last year, but as a second-time payor they’ll face steeper penalties for eclipsing this year’s $237MM threshold.
Right now, sitting about $6MM over the first barrier, the Rangers are only on the hook for a 30% overage fee. They’ll pay roughly that same $1.8MM penalty if no further deals are made, but between small-scale signings, late trade acquisitions and/or in-season pickups near the trade deadline, that figure will likely rise.
The ostensible lack of willingness to meet Montgomery’s asking price in free agency has proved the greatest point of consternation among fans. Where that asking price stands at present isn’t clear, but it’s fair to expect that Montgomery and his reps at the Boras Corporation are still eyeing a nine-figure contract and an annual salary ranging from $20-25MM.
The Rangers, as second-time luxury payors, would be on the hook for a good bit more than that. They’d owe a 30% tax on the next $14MM worth of AAV (average annual value) added to their payroll and another 42.5% on subsequent spending. Just setting a speculative AAV of $23MM on Montgomery, that would position the Rangers to pay an additional $8.025MM in taxes on top of Montgomery’s salary. Texas could try to backload the deal or defer salary, but that would do nothing to change the luxury tax hit. In other words, depending on where exactly Montgomery’s AAV lands, he’d cost the Rangers something in the vicinity of an extra $7-9MM on top of what he’s earning.
That theoretical Montgomery signing would also make it far likelier that they’ll be third-time payors in 2025. A Montgomery deal would likely push Texas to around $170MM worth of luxury obligations in ’25, and that’s before factoring in arbitration raises for Nathaniel Lowe (earning $7.5MM this season), Jonah Heim ($3.05MM in ’23), Dane Dunning ($3.325MM in ’23), Leody Taveras ($2.55MM in ’23), Brock Burke ($1.035MM in ’23) and Josh Sborz ($1.025MM in ’23).
A conservative estimate for the Rangers’ 2025 arb class would clock in around $30MM, meaning with a theoretical Montgomery deal they’d be over $200MM in tax considerations before making a single addition to the 2025 roster. Long-term deals for core players like Adolis Garcia, Josh Jung, Evan Carter or even top prospect Wyatt Langford would only push that luxury number further north.
It’s fair to debate just how much Rangers ownership should fret over the luxury tax, of course. The team is still entering its fourth season (with fans) in a new stadium that provided a revenue boost, and last year’s World Series win provided ample additional revenue as well. Texas needn’t worry about sacrificing any draft value unless the team is more than $40MM over the threshold — the point at which a club’s top pick is dropped by 10 places in the following year’s draft. It’s unlikely they’d hit that level even if they were to re-sign Montgomery, and they’d be a long ways from that level next offseason as well, even with Montgomery on the books.
Still, every ownership group has its limits, and it seems the Rangers’ group has reached — or is at the very least approaching — its own limits for the upcoming season. If that’s indeed the case, Texas will rely on a patchwork starting staff in the season’s first half with an eye toward potential returns for deGrom, Scherzer and right-hander Tyler Mahle (who inked a two-year, $22MM deal earlier this winter) following the All-Star break.
At the moment, the Rangers’ rotation will likely include Eovaldi, Gray, Heaney, Dunning and left-hander Cody Bradford. Right-hander Yerry Rodriguez and non-roster invitees like Jose Ureña and Adrian Sampson could factor into the group as well. There are a handful of notable arms who could be signed to low-cost one-year deals, and the Rangers could continue stockpiling veterans on non-roster pacts, just as they’ve done with Ureña and Sampson — the latter of whom only signed yesterday.
More broadly, it’ll be a big year for the development of former touted prospects like Jack Leiter, Owen White and Cole Winn. All three are former top-60 draft picks — Leiter was selected second overall — who’ve ranked among the game’s top-100 prospects. However, all three struggled through ugly seasons in the upper minors in 2023 and have seen their stock drop amid those struggles.
Giants Sign Austin Warren To Major League Deal
The Giants announced to reporters, including Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, that they have signed right-hander Austin Warren to a one-year major league deal. Lefty Robbie Ray was transferred to the 60-day injured list to open a spot on the 40-man roster. Slusser adds that Warren, a client of the Ballengee Group, will make $755K this year. That’s just barely over this year’s $740K league minimum.
Warren, 28, was designated for assignment by the Angels last week. He underwent Tommy John surgery in May of last year and is still recovering. Since injured players can’t be put on outright waivers, the Angels had to either trade him or release him and opted for the latter.
The righty has 32 games of major league experience, dating from his 2021 debut to the early parts of the 2023 season prior to his surgery. He has a 3.55 earned run average in his 38 innings, striking out just 19.4% of opponents but walking just 6.3% of them and keeping 44.3% of balls in play on the ground.
Over the past three years, he’s tossed 92 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level, pitching for the Salt Lake Bees in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. In that time, he had a 3.50 ERA, 24.4% strikeout rate, 10.2% walk rate and kept roughly half of batted balls down in the dirt.
The Giants are clearly hoping that he can return from his Tommy John layoff in good form. Assuming they don’t expect him back in the first two months of the season, he will be transferred to the 60-day IL once the club needs his roster spot. Once activated, he has a couple of minor league options and can be kept in Triple-A if he doesn’t earn his way into the big league picture.
The bullpen in San Francisco would appear to have some innings available. Camilo Doval, Taylor Rogers, Tyler Rogers and Luke Jackson will be in four spots. Apart from that, none of the other relievers on the roster have even a year of service time. If Warren is still on the 40-man at season’s end, he can be retained for future seasons as he currently has just under two years of major league service time.
Rizzo: Nationals Unlikely To Make Additional Major League Signings This Offseason
The bulk of the shopping in a quiet Nationals offseason looks to be complete. General manager Mike Rizzo told the team’s beat writers Wednesday the Nats aren’t likely to add any more free agents on guaranteed deals between now and Opening Day (X link via Andrew Golden of the Washington Post). It’s still possible that they’ll add some veterans on minor league deals with spring training invitations.
Rizzo’s comments seemingly close the door on any potential late additions of note to a Nationals club that has been poking around the starting pitching market. “I just couldn’t find that starting pitcher that was going to impact us at this time, for not only the right amount of years but the right salary at this time,” Rizzo said Wednesday (via MASNsports.com’s Mark Zuckerman).
The Nationals have only signed three players to big league deals this offseason — none for more than Joey Gallo‘s $5MM (as can be seen in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker). Beyond Gallo, the Nats signed reliever Dylan Floro and infielder/outfielder Nick Senzel to one-year deals worth $2.3MM and $2MM, respectively. They’ve also added outfielder Jesse Winker, lefty Richard Bleier and first baseman/outfielder Juan Yepez on minor league pacts this winter.
As it stands, the Nationals will deploy a rotation including Patrick Corbin, Josiah Gray, MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin and Trevor Williams. That group combined to start all but 19 of Washington’s games in 2023 — Chad Kuhl, Joan Adon and Jackson Rutledge started the others — a season in which the Nationals ranked 25th in the Majors with a 5.02 ERA and 29th in each of FIP (5.30), SIERA (4.95) and K-BB% (9.7%).
The Nats are surely hoping for better performances from young starters like Gore and Gray, both of whom were lauded as top prospects prior to breaking into the big leagues. Both hurlers posted respectable ERAs with middling grades from fielding-independent metrics, in no small part due to sub-par walk rates and (in Gore’s case especially) struggles with the long ball. Gore is the only Nationals starter who posted an above-average strikeout rate in 2023 (26%). Corbin and Williams are the only two who had better-than-average walk rates (7.2% and 8%, respectively).
Washington also has several more arms on the rise, with the aforementioned Rutledge, lefty DJ Herz and right-hander Cade Cavalli among them. Cavalli would likely have been in the Nats’ rotation in 2023 were it not for a spring elbow injury that led to Tommy John surgery.
Rizzo didn’t provide much of an update on Cavalli beyond the fact that his rehab is progressing nicely. An early-summer return seems like a best-case scenario for the hard-throwing 25-year-old, and Zuckerman indeed notes that he’s shooting to be MLB-ready sometime in June.
Rutledge tossed 20 innings in last year’s debut after delivering solid run-prevention numbers between Double-A and Triple-A — albeit with sub-par command. Herz, acquired from the Cubs in exchange for Jeimer Candelario, posted a 3.43 ERA in 22 Double-A starts last year, fanning an impressive 32.4% of his opponents. He too struggled with command issues, however, walking opponents at a grim 13.9% clip.
On the bullpen front, the Nats could be down at least one candidate early in the season. Skipper Davey Martinez said Wednesday that righty Mason Thompson will be shut down for the next two weeks before being reevaluated for an elbow injury (X link via Golden). Martinez conceded that the team is “a little concerned” about the issue but declined to go into further details.
Thompson, 26 next week, has spent the majority of the past three seasons with the Nationals and pitched 100 1/3 innings of 4.57 ERA ball with a 17.8% strikeout rate, 10% walk rate and 50.6% ground-ball rate.
Athletics Sign Stephen Piscotty To Minor League Deal
The Athletics have signed outfielder Stephen Piscotty to a minor league deal, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. The CAA Sports client has been assigned to Triple-A Las Vegas for now but will presumably receive an invite to major league camp.
Piscotty, 33, will be returning to his long-time home after a year in the wilderness. He signed a minor league deal with the Giants around this time last year but was released after not making the club’s Opening Day roster. He landed another minor league deal, this one with the White Sox, but was released in August after hitting a tepid .232/.330/.390 in Triple-A.
He now returns to the organization for whom he played from 2018 to 2022. While still a member of the Cardinals, he signed an extension in April of 2017, a six-year pact that guaranteed him $33.5MM. He was traded to the A’s prior to the 2018 campaign and his first season in Oakland was excellent. He hit 27 home runs and slashed .267/.331/.491 for a wRC+ of 126.
Unfortunately, his production fell off from there. He hit just 28 home runs over the next four seasons, leading to a batting line of .229/.287/.378 and a wRC+ of 83. He was released in August of 2022 with a few months remaining on his extension.
Given that it’s been many years since he was an effective hitter, the A’s probably aren’t expecting too much from him. But as the old saying goes, there’s no such thing as a bad minor league deal. The A’s can bring him into camp as a veteran presence for a fairly young roster and see if he’s able to turn things around and get back in good form. The club projects to have an outfield mix consisting of Esteury Ruiz, JJ Bleday, Seth Brown, Brent Rooker, Miguel Andújar and Lawrence Butler.
Liam Hendriks Weighing Multiple Offers
Three-time All-Star reliever Liam Hendriks is weighing multiple offers from interested clubs, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan. Hendriks, who’s recovering from Tommy John surgery and aiming to return to action around the trade deadline this season, has set a deadline of tomorrow to sign with a team, per Passan. If he doesn’t sign by tomorrow — presumably meaning, if a team doesn’t meet whatever asking price he’s set — he’ll rehab on his own for the next several months and look to sign with a club closer to his return date.
Hendriks turned 35 last week. His ascension from a fringe arm riding the DFA carousel back in 2013-15 to one of the sport’s premier relievers is one of the most remarkable turnarounds in recent memory. Hendriks was designated for assignment four times and placed on waivers without a public DFA on another occasion and traded in three different minor swaps along the way. In 2018, the A’s not only designated him for assignment for the fourth (and final) time in his career — they succeeded in passing Hendriks through waivers unclaimed.
Hendriks posted solid but unremarkable numbers as a low-leverage reliever for the A’s from 2016-18 but returned from that outright in 2019 as an entirely different pitcher. He scrapped his sinker, leaned far more heavily into a four-seamer that had jumped by more than 1.5 mph in average velocity, and became a two-pitch powerhouse who flummoxed opponents with his four-seamer/slider combo.
That devastating pair of pitches quickly catapulted Hendriks to the ranks of baseball’s elite bullpen arms. From 2019-22, he pitched 239 innings with 114 saves, an overwhelming 38.8% strikeout rate and a pristine 5.1% walk rate. In addition to his trio of All-Star nods, Hendriks twice won the Mariano Rivera American League Reliever of the Year Award and inked a huge three-year, $54MM contract with the White Sox.
The 2023 season brought about a sobering bit of disheartening news, as Hendriks announced last offseason that he’d been diagnosed with non-Hodgkins lymphoma and would immediately embark on a wave of chemotherapy treatment. Just three and a half months later, Hendriks triumphantly announced that he was cancer-free. He began a rehab assignment in early May and returned to the Majors on May 29 — remarkably less than four months after making his original announcement.
It was a feel-good story for White Sox fans amid a disastrous start to the season, but the good vibes didn’t last long. Hendriks was placed back on the injured list just two weeks later, this time due to inflammation in his right elbow. While the issue was initially believed to be relatively minor — Hendriks at first expressed optimism he’d be back in a matter of weeks — damage to his ulnar collateral ligament was either discovered shortly thereafter or developed over the course of his rehab. There’d been no prior public indication that surgery was even a consideration, but the Sox announced on Aug. 2 that Hendriks was slated for Tommy John surgery.
Hendriks’ track record is strong enough that he ought to be a clear candidate for a big league deal — likely a two-year arrangement that’ll allow him the opportunity to rehab with a team’s medical staff for the bulk of this season with an eye toward either a second-half return or a 2025 return. This type of contract is relatively common, though the fact that Hendriks is entering his age-35 season perhaps complicates the scenario to some extent.
There’s not a team in baseball that couldn’t use a healthy Hendriks in its bullpen. That won’t be an option until late August at the earliest and perhaps not until Opening Day 2025, depending on how his rehab progresses, but the track record alone should lead to plenty of interest.
Marlins Win Arbitration Hearing Against Luis Arráez
Arbiters have ruled in favor of the Marlins in their arbitration hearing with infielder Luis Arráez, per Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase. He’ll make a salary of $10.6MM this year as opposed to the $12MM he was seeking.
Arráez, 27 in April, is the best contact hitter in the game. Last year, he struck out in just 5.5% of his plate appearances, easily the best rate in the majors. Jeff McNeil of the Mets was second among qualified hitters at 10%. Arráez flirted with .400 for a while but ultimately finished the season with a batting average of “only” .354. Again, that was easily the best in the majors, with Atlanta’s Ronald Acuña Jr. second at .337.
The other parts of his game are a bit less impressive. He’s never been a huge power threat, with last year’s 10 home runs a new personal best. His second base defense is also questionable. Defensive Runs Saved considered him to be four better than par last year but Outs Above Average had him at a dismal -10. But thanks largely to his bat, FanGraphs considered him to be 3.4 wins above replacement on the year with Baseball Reference at 4.9.
He first qualified for arbitration going into 2022 as a Super Two player, then with the Twins. He and that club avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $2.125MM salary. He and the Twins didn’t agree to a 2023 salary prior to that year’s deadline but he was traded to the Marlins prior to the hearing. He ended up beating the Fish in that case, earning $6.1MM last year instead of the $5MM filing figure.
Going into the 2023-24 offseason, MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him for a $10.8MM salary this year. The club and the player’s camp filed on either side of that figure, but arbiters have to choose one figure or the other and can’t choose a middle ground number, siding with the Marlins this time. Arráez will be eligible for one more pass through arbitration for his 2025 salary, after which he’s slated to become a free agent.
Brewers Trade Clayton Andrews To Yankees
The Yankees have acquired left-hander Clayton Andrews from the Brewers in exchange for minor league righty Joshua Quezada, the teams announced Wednesday. New York transferred righty Scott Effross, who’s recovering from December back surgery (that was just announced today), to the 60-day injured list. Milwaukee designated Andrews for assignment last week.
Andrews, 27, made his big league debut with Milwaukee in 2023, though things didn’t go as he’d hoped. He pitched just 3 1/3 innings but was torched for ten earned runs on the strength of three homers in that brief cup of coffee.
Ugly as that tiny sample was, Andrews had much more encouraging results in the minors. He spent the bulk of the 2023 campaign with the Brewers’ Triple-A affiliate in Nashville, pitching to a tidy 2.53 ERA in 57 frames out of the bullpen. Andrews fanned a hefty 31.1% of his opponents in Nashville and posted a solid 45.7% grounder rate, but his 13% walk rate was an eyesore that’ll clearly need improvement if he’s to carve out a big league role for himself.
A 17th-round pick by the Brewers back in 2018, Andrews still has a pair of minor league option years remaining, which will give the Yankees some flexible depth in the bullpen. He’s a three-pitch lefty who averaged 94.8 mph on his heater in 2023 and also mixed in a changeup and slider. Andrews’ changeup is considered his best pitch, hence the reverse splits he showed in ’23; righties hit him at just a .215/.312/.349 clip while fellow lefties managed a healthier .233/.337/.438 slash.
As for the Brewers’ end of the swap, they’ll pick up a 19-year-old righty who’s entering just his second professional season. Quezada signed with the Yankees out of Nicaragua during last year’s international amateur free agency period. He spent the season with the Yankees’ short-season affiliate in the Dominican Summer League, where he pitched 46 1/3 innings of 3.69 ERA ball. The 6’2″, 185-pound Quezada fanned exactly one quarter of his opponents and issued walks at a 9.4% clip. Quezada wasn’t one of the team’s high-profile signings on last year’s international market and didn’t rank among the Yankees’ top 30 prospects, but he turned in a nice debut campaign and will give the Brewers a lottery-ticket arm to stash in the lower levels of their system.
Pirates Still Discussing Rotation Trades With Marlins, Exploring Free Agency
The Pirates have added Martin Perez and Marco Gonzales to their rotation this winter but remain in active pursuit of at least one more starter, reports Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. The Bucs are in ongoing trade discussions with multiple clubs, including the Marlins, and are still showing interest in various free agents, per Mackey. FanSided’s Robert Murray also wrote this morning, after the Bucs signed Josh Fleming, that Pittsburgh is still active on both the trade and free agent markets.
Miami has reportedly entertained interest in starters Edward Cabrera, Jesus Luzardo and Braxton Garrett at various points this offseason. Ballyhooed right-hander Eury Perez, who impressed with a 3.15 ERA through 91 1/3 innings as a 20-year-old rookie in 2023, is widely considered to be off limits.
Of the other Miami arms, Cabrera has generally been considered the “most” available. The 6’5″ 25-year-old is a former top-tier prospect himself but has dealt with command troubles through his first year-plus of big league service time and has not yet as established as the other three hurlers in question. Mackey indeed suggests that Cabrera is the likeliest target, reporting that a deal between the Bucs and the Fish would likely include an infielder such as Liover Peguero, Nick Gonzales or Ji Hwan Bae.
Each of those three have varying levels of trade value themselves. Peguero has garnered the most prospect fanfare of the group but struggled in a 59-game MLB debut last year, hitting .237/.280/.374 in 213 plate appearances. Gonzales is a former No. 7 overall pick and top-100 prospect, but Baseball America now lists him ninth among Pittsburgh minor leaguers. Bae is another once-well-regarded prospect but exhausted his rookie eligibility last year with a tepid .231/.296/.311 showing through 371 plate appearances. All three are middle infielders, though Gonzales and Bae are considered limited to second base (and, in Bae’s case, the outfield).
Any member of that trio would figure to be just one of several pieces going to Miami, should a deal come together. Though Cabrera himself has some questions about his lackluster command, he’s still performed far better in the majors than any of those Pittsburgh infielders, and controllable young pitching is typically the most difficult type of asset to acquire.
Since making his big league debut in 2021, Cabrera has pitched 197 2/3 innings of 4.01 ERA ball. That includes a rocky debut that lasted just 26 1/3 frames in ’21, however. Over the past two seasons, he sports a more encouraging 3.73 mark in 171 1/3 frames. Cabrera has averaged better than 96 mph on his heater, punched out an above-average 26.6% of his opponents and induced grounders at a strong 50.6% clip. Still, fielding-independent metrics are a bit more bearish on him than ERA due to his 13.7% walk rate. In that same 2022-23 window, Cabrera sports a 4.50 FIP and 4.42 SIERA.
If Cabrera can improve his command at all, he has the makings of a clear big league starter. His fastball and changeup give him a pair of above-average to plus offerings, with the change in particular befuddling lefties and thus mitigating typical platoon issues. Southpaws have flailed away at the pitch and produced a hapless .184/.291/.315 batting line in 433 plate appearances against Cabrera. Because his slider hasn’t been as consistently effective, Cabrera has struggled against right-handed opponents. They’ve hit just .231 against him but posted a huge .376 OBP and slugged .422.
Cabrera’s 1.147 years of big league service time put him on track to be arbitration-eligible as a Super Two player next winter. That’d make him arb-eligible four times rather than the standard three, but he’s under club control through the 2028 season regardless.
Beyond their interest in Miami’s starters, the Pirates have seen free agents Domingo German and Noah Syndergaard throw recently, per Mackey. Either figures to be available on a low-cost deal, and it seems entirely feasible that the Pirates could both trade for a pre-arb starter who won’t alter their payroll and still add another low-cost rotation piece on a one-year deal. Other veterans still on the market –beyond top starters Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, who are surely out of Pittsburgh’s price range — include Michael Lorenzen, Hyun Jin Ryu, Mike Clevinger and Eric Lauer.