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NL East Notes: Nola, Strahm, Suarez, Mets, Wright

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Phillies starter Aaron Nola will go into the off-season as one of the top available free agent pitchers, but Philadelphia’s expected to make a strong push to re-sign him, according to a report from the New York Post’s Jon Heyman.

It’s reported that the Phillies had at least some discussion with Nola this past winter about an extension, but their offer – which came in north of $100MM but south of the $162MM Carlos Rodon received from the Yankees – clearly didn’t get the job done. Heyman adds that Nola prefers a return to Philadelphia, and while 29 other teams could make a run at him in the winter, the Phillies will likely try again to keep him in town.

Nola’s off to a slower start than usual this year, working to a 4.64 ERA through his first seven starts, but has been one of the game’s most durable pitchers in recent seasons. He’s made more than 30 starts in every full season going back to 2018, and has compiled a very healthy 3.47 ERA in that time with above average walk and strikeout rates. As for this season, seven starts is not an insignificant sample size, and a slight drop in velocity in his fastball has seen his strikeout rate dip to just 19.2%, the lowest rate of his career.

As Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer noted about a week ago, Nola is a slow worker and the pitch clock change has been a tough adjustment for him. In any case, it’s certainly too early to write off Nola based on seven starts and it’s worth noting that the bulk of the damage was done in his first three starts, and he’s averaging almost seven innings per start with a 3.29 ERA since then.

While there’s still a full season to play out, Nola’s track record should stand him in good stead to do well in free agency. While he may not possess the dominant stuff Rodon displayed in the past two seasons, his durability is far superior and as we see so often, that is a huge value add for starting pitchers. With that in mind, it’s unsurprising Nola seemingly wasn’t interested in a deal below Rodon’s $162MM.

Here’s some more notes from around the NL East:

  • Sticking with the Phillies to begin with, and they’ll move Matt Strahm back to the bullpen with Ranger Suarez expected to return to the rotation shortly, per Todd Zolecki of MLB.com. Strahm’s given the Phillies some solid value out of the rotation, making six starts and working to a 3.51 ERA – including three scoreless starts. That’s been hugely helpful to a Phillies rotation that’s been slow out of the gates, with Nola and Zack Wheeler sporting ERAs above four and off-season recruit Taijuan Walker sitting at 6.91. The return of Suarez from an elbow injury will be a welcome addition, particularly if he can continue the excellent work he put in last season, where he worked to a 3.65 ERA across 29 starts. The Phillies have made a slow start to the season, sitting 15-18 entering play Saturday and seven games adrift of the Braves in first place, so the return of players like Suarez and Bryce Harper will be critical to getting them back in the race for one of baseball’s more competitive divisions.
  • The Mets are one more team off to a slower than expected start, after another busy off-season they sit 17-16 entering play Saturday. That’s not concerning GM Billy Eppler though, who told reporters (including Tim Britton of The Athletic) that he still believes in this roster. “I believe in this team and the players that are here. There’s too much track record, there’s too much these guys have accomplished, there’s too much know-how,” Eppler said. While a 17-16 record is certainly not the end of the world, the Mets expected better and one focus might be the top of the team’s payroll, where some of their highly-paid stars are underperforming through the first month. Starling Marte is hitting just .219/.299/.286 while Max Scherzer has a 5.56 ERA, yet Eppler says he’s not concerned by either. The Mets also just welcomed back Justin Verlander from the IL, so his return to the rotation will provide a big boost as they look to keep up with the Braves.
  • Kyle Wright’s MRI revealed a right shoulder strain which the Braves will re-evaluate at a later date, per Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. There is currently no timetable for his return. After a breakout season in 2022 which saw him finish tenth in NL Cy Young voting, Wright’s struggled in 2023, working to a 5.79 ERA in five starts. It seems likely the shoulder played a part in that step back, given Wright dealt with shoulder problems during spring training, and started the season on the IL. That’s a blow for Wright, who made 30 starts and pitched to a 3.19 ERA last season. The Braves, at least, are in a good position to weather the loss of Wright, with Spencer Strider, Max Fried and Charlie Morton all well established arms in Atlanta’s rotation, and Bryce Elder enjoying a strong start to the season.

Astros’ Luis Garcia To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Astros starter Luis Garcia will undergo Tommy John surgery, the club informed reporters (including Chandler Rome of the Athletic). He’ll miss the rest of the season and quite likely a good chunk of the 2024 campaign as well.

It’s a brutal blow to the defending World Series champions. Garcia has been a pivotal member of the starting staff. After a brief debut during the abbreviated season, Garcia secured a rotation spot in 2021. The Venezuelan-born hurler started 28 games in each of the next couple years, tossing between 155 and 160 innings. He allowed fewer than four earned runs per nine with better than average strikeout and walk rates during each year.

The 26-year-old had been off to a similar start in 2023. Through six starts, he tallied 27 frames of 4.00 ERA ball. Garcia had punched out 27% of batters faced against a serviceable 8.7% walk rate. For his career, he’s now up to 352 innings with a 3.61 ERA while fanning a little more than a quarter of opponents.

Unfortunately, Garcia departed Monday’s start in the first inning with elbow discomfort. He’d thrown just eight pitches and was working with diminished velocity before his early exit. The Astros sent him for an MRI that apparently revealed damage to the UCL in his throwing elbow.

Houston is also without José Urquidy and Lance McCullers Jr. at the moment. Urquidy is dealing with shoulder inflammation and midway through a 10-day shutdown period. McCullers is building back from a muscle strain in his throwing arm. Garcia’s injury is even more serious and leaves the club with a top-heavy starting staff. Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier and rookie Hunter Brown make for an excellent top three. The final two spots have been thrown in flux. Brandon Bielak is moving into the starting staff, while 28-year-old J.P. France is coming up for his major league debut tomorrow.

Bolstering the rotation midseason could well be a priority for general manager Dana Brown and his front office. Houston has started the season with a pedestrian 16-15 record. They’re still within 2 1/2 games of the division-leading Rangers and it’d be a surprise if the Astros weren’t in position to add to the MLB roster midseason. Notable external solutions aren’t likely to be available for over a month, though, leaving Houston to rely upon a group of mostly inexperienced depth starters from the upper minors.

Garcia is already on the 15-day injured list. He’ll be transferred to the 60-day IL whenever the club needs to free a spot on the 40-man roster. He can remain on the IL for the rest of the season but will need to be reinstated onto the 40-man over the winter. Garcia will collect service time for his rehab time, pushing him past the three-year mark by the end of the season. He’ll be eligible for arbitration for the first time next offseason and isn’t ticketed for free agency until the 2026-27 offseason.

Astros Acquire Nick Allgeyer From Phillies

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The Astros acquired minor league lefty Nick Allgeyer from the Phillies in exchange for cash considerations this afternoon, as reflected on the MLB.com transaction tracker. He’ll report to Houston’s top affiliate in Sugar Land.

Initially selected by the Blue Jays in the 12th round of the 2018 draft, Allgeyer pitched his way to the upper levels of the Toronto system. He earned a cup of coffee at the big league level in 2021, tossing one inning of scoreless relief. The Jays ran him through outright waivers quickly thereafter, however, and he hasn’t made it back to the majors since that point.

For the past two-plus years, the University of Iowa product has mostly pitched in Triple-A. He’s worked in a swing role, starting 36 of 61 appearances. Over 202 1/3 Triple-A frames, Allgeyer carries a 5.34 ERA with a slightly below-average 20.9% strikeout rate and an elevated 11% walk percentage. Allgeyer started four games with the Phils’ top affiliate after signing a minor league contract over the winter. He’s struck out 15 and walked six in 12 innings of six-run ball while keeping the ball on the ground at a solid 48.3% clip.

Allgeyer adds some upper level rotation help to an organization whose starting pitching depth is being tested. Luis Garcia, José Urquidy and Lance McCullers Jr. are all on the injured list. Garcia is done for the year after today’s announcement that he’ll undergo Tommy John surgery. That has pushed Brandon Bielak and J.P. France to the MLB rotation, while some of Houston’s other depth starters are battling injuries of their own.

Righty Shawn Dubin was placed on the minor league injured list today. Former top prospect Forrest Whitley is dealing with minor soreness near his throwing shoulder and will take a day or two off throwing, reports Brian McTaggart of MLB.com (Twitter link). Both Dubin and Whitley are on the 40-man roster, though neither has yet pitched in the majors.

Nationals Release Chad Pinder

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The Nationals have released Chad Pinder, reports the Talk Nats blog (Twitter link). The veteran utilityman had been in the organization on a minor league contract. He’ll return to the open market in search of a new landing spot.

Pinder, 31, played parts of seven seasons with the A’s. The former second round draftee hit .242/.294/.417 in 553 games with Oakland. At his best, the right-handed hitter has compensated for middling on-base marks with decent power production. He’s topped double digits in homers on four separate occasions. The bulk of the damage has come against left-handed pitching, as Pinder carries a career .264/.322/.456 line when holding the platoon advantage.

While Pinder continued to hit lefties at an above-average clip last season, he slumped to a .218/.250/.341 slash while fanning nearly a third of the time versus right-handed arms. That limited him to minor league offers over the winter. Pinder first caught on with the Reds and spent Spring Training in the Cincinnati organization. He slumped to a .103/.167/.154 line in exhibition play and didn’t make the team. Pinder exercised an opt-out and quickly landed with Washington.

Pinder’s offensive struggles continued with the Nats’ top affiliate in Rochester. In 16 games, he hit .218/.308/.309. He walked at a quality 11.3% clip against a manageable 24.2% strikeout rate but only managed three extra-base hits (a homer and two doubles) in 62 trips to the plate.

Latest On Carlos Rodon

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The Yankees have been without one of their top offseason signees all season. Carlos Rodón started the year on the injured list with a forearm strain, and while he’s put that issue behind him, back soreness has kept him out of action. There’s still plenty of uncertainty around the two-time All-Star’s timetable, as Rodón provided a concerning update this evening.

Rodón told the Yankees’ beat doctors informed him that his back issue is “chronic” (via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). He didn’t provide much more clarity, although he’ll receive a cortisone injection early next week. There’s no present target date for a return to the mound, as Rodón noted “whenever my body tells me I can throw and everyone agrees that I can throw, then I’ll start throwing” (link via Brendan Kuty of the Athletic).

It’s obviously a worrisome situation for the Yankees due both to its short and long-term implications. New York envisioned Rodón slotting in as co-ace alongside Gerrit Cole when signing him to a six-year, $162MM free agent deal. It was the second-largest pitching contract of the offseason, a reflection of the southpaw’s 2.67 ERA and 33.9% strikeout rate over the past two seasons.

Injuries have instead taken out the bulk of what the Yankees had planned as their season-opening starting staff. Frankie Montas is going to miss the majority of the season after undergoing shoulder surgery. Luis Severino has yet to make his debut because of a lat strain. Those issues have pushed Jhony Brito, Clarke Schmidt and Domingo Germán into the rotation behind Cole and Nestor Cortes.

New York’s rotation has still been solid overall. They rank 11th in ERA (4.07) and third in strikeout percentage (26%). That’s almost all attributable to Cole, though. He’s off to a Cy Young caliber start, allowing only 1.35 earned runs per nine while fanning 29.4% of opposing hitters. Cortes, Germán and Schmidt are all missing bats at above-average rates but have been victimized by the home run ball, resulting in ERAs pushing or north of 5.00. Brito has had an up-and-down rookie season.

The Yankees have started the year 17-15. That’s a respectable showing given the number of injuries they’ve faced but has them at the bottom of an ultra-competitive AL East. Rotation help figures to be among the priorities for general manager Brian Cashman and his front office once the summer trade market begins to heat up. That’d be particularly true if Rodón’s health outlook is still uncertain as the deadline gets closer.

Dodgers Select Wander Suero, Option Gavin Stone

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The Dodgers announced they’ve selected reliever Wander Suero onto the major league roster. Rookie righty Gavin Stone was optioned to Triple-A Oklahoma City in a corresponding move. Los Angeles already had a vacancy on the 40-man roster, so no move was required in that regard.

Suero returns to the majors for the first time in two years. The Dominican-born righty was a middle innings option for the Nationals between 2018-21. He combined for a 4.61 ERA over 185 1/3 innings during that four-year stretch. Suero twice posted a sub-4.00 ERA with above-average strikeout and walk numbers, with his overall results inflated by an uncharacteristic 6.33 mark in 42 2/3 innings during his final season in Washington.

Los Angeles added the 31-year-old on a non-roster deal over the winter. He’s spent the season in Oklahoma City, working 10 2/3 innings over 10 outings. Suero has kept opponents to two runs in that time, although he’s done so with a modest 8:5 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Nevertheless, he’s impressed Dodger brass enough to earn a look in the major league bullpen. Suero still has a minor league option remaining, so the Dodgers can bounce him between L.A. and OKC throughout the season if they keep him on the 40-man roster.

Stone, 24, is one of the sport’s top pitching prospects. He was called up for his major league debut on Wednesday. That didn’t go particularly well, as the Phillies tagged him for five runs (four earned) on eight hits and two walks in four innings. One subpar outing surely doesn’t change how the Dodgers feel about the highly-touted righty, but it appears the club was always viewing that debut as a spot start. Stone will head back to Triple-A, where he has a 4.74 ERA over six starts, and await his next MLB opportunity.

Pitchers have to spend at least 15 days in the minors upon being optioned unless they’re recalled to replace a player landing on the injured list. The Dodgers will stick with a starting five of Clayton Kershaw, Julio Urías, Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May and Noah Syndergaard for the time being.

Austin Warren To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Angels right-hander Austin Warren will require Tommy John surgery, reports Sam Blum of The Athletic.

Warren, 27, was placed on the injured list in late April due to right elbow inflammation. About a week later, it was reported that he would be shut down from throwing for about four to six weeks, but it didn’t seem like surgery was on the table at that time. Unfortunately, further testing must have revealed the issue was more serious than initially thought and he will now have to go under the knife, following Jose Quijada as the second Angel to require TJS this week.

A sixth-round pick in the 2018 draft, Warren made his way up to the big leagues in 2021. He posted a 3.47 ERA in 36 1/3 innings over that season and 2022, striking out just 18.8% of batters faced but with a solid 6.5% walk rate and 45.9% ground ball rate. He was designated for assignment in January but cleared waivers, sticking with the organization and getting re-selected in April this year.

Warren will now miss the remainder of the season and likely the first half of 2024 as well. If there’s one small silver lining in this awful news for Warren, it’s that it happened after he was called up to the big leagues. That means he will collect a big league salary and service time while spending the rest of the year on the injured list, which would not have been the case if he suffered the injury prior to rejoining the 40-man roster.

Twins Select Dereck Rodríguez, Recall Alex Kirilloff

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The Twins announced a series of roster moves today, selecting right-hander Dereck Rodríguez and recalling infielder/outfielder Alex Kirilloff from Triple-A St. Paul. In corresponding moves, outfielder Trevor Larnach was optioned to Triple-A while left-hander Caleb Thielbar has been placed on the 15-day injured list with a right oblique strain. To open a 40-man spot for Rodríguez, righty Tyler Mahle was transferred to the 60-day IL.

Rodríguez, 31 next month, arrived in the big leagues as a starter in 2018, posting a 2.81 ERA in 118 1/3 innings. Unfortunately, his ERA jumped to 5.64 the next year and he’s largely been in a depth/swingman role since then. He made just two appearances in the big leagues in 2020 and none in 2021. Last year, he was with the Twins on a minor league deal and was twice selected to the big league club, once in April and once in September. In each case, he made one multi-inning relief stint and was promptly designated for assignment.

He and the organization seem to have have a good relationship, as he re-signed on another minor league deal this past winter even after all of that roster shuffling. He has a 4.66 ERA in 19 1/3 Triple-A innings this year and will give the club a fresh arm. They used five relievers yesterday, not including Thielbar, in their 12-inning game against the White Sox.

As for Kirilloff, he’s a former first round draft pick and was one of the top prospects in baseball not too long ago. Persistent wrist problems have frequently put him out of action and also diminished his production, but he seems to be on a tear right now. He began the year on the injured list and was optioned after returning to health, but is hitting .300/.426/.580 through 14 minor league games. He’ll get a chance to see if he can bring any of that up to the majors, hopefully staying healthy in the process.

As for Mahle, it was reported on the weekend that he would be shut down for four weeks due to a posterior impingement and a flexor pronator strain in his throwing arm. Even if he’s healthy after that shutdown period, he would then have to ramp back up to a full starter’s workload. It would have been difficult for him to return within 60 days but this move now makes that officially off the table.

Kyle Isbel To Miss Six Weeks With Grade 2 Hamstring Strain

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The Royals announced some roster moves earlier today, with outfielder Kyle Isbel going on the 10-day injured list with a hamstring strain and left-hander Austin Cox optioned to Triple-A. Those roster spots were taken by infielder/outfielder Nate Eaton and right-hander Jonathan Heasley, both of them getting recalled from Omaha. Manager Matt Quatraro tells Anne Rogers of MLB.com that Isbel has a Grade 2 hamstring strain and will be sidelined for six weeks.

Isbel, 26, was a third round pick in the 2018 draft and has been considered one of the club’s top prospects in recent years. Baseball America had him in the top 10 among Royal farmhands for four years straight beginning in 2019. He reached the majors in 2021 and has had roughly a full season’s worth of playing time since then, getting into 160 games with 457 plate appearances.

He hasn’t been able to contribute much at the plate in that time, currently sporting a batting line of .222/.274/.359 for a wRC+ of 73. He’s struck out in 25.6% of his trips to the plate and walked in just 5.9% of them. He has been able to contribute in other ways, however. He’s played all three outfield positions and has accrued +16 Defensive Runs Saved, +14 Outs Above Average and a 9.1 grade from Ultimate Zone Rating. When combined with his 13 stolen bases, he’s been worth 1.3 wins above replacement, even with that tepid offensive production. Any kind of step forward at the plate would make him a solid everyday player.

Unfortunately, he’ll now have to miss the next few weeks with this injury, which is unfortunate timing. Despite his lack of offense this year, he may have been able to continue getting regular playing time. The Royals traded Michael A. Taylor this winter, seemingly at least partially motivated as a way to clear a path for Drew Waters to get everyday playing time in center field. But Waters suffered an oblique strain in February and has been on the injured list all year. He was set to start a rehab assignment this week but it was recently reported that some lower back tightness has put those plans on pause. That could have allowed Isbel continued reps at the position but he’ll now have to join Waters on the IL instead.

The Royals will now have to figure out how to proceed up the middle without either of those two. Quatraro tells Rogers that Jackie Bradley Jr. and Nate Eaton will be the primary options with Maikel Garcia in the mix as well. Bradley is an excellent defender but has been one of the worst hitters in the majors in recent years, including a tepid .156/.255/.200 showing this season. Eaton is primarily an infielder but has some time on the grass, while Garcia has only played infield thus far in his career.

Cardinals Place Tyler O’Neill On IL, Select James Naile

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The Cardinals announced a series of roster moves today, selecting right-hander James Naile and recalling first baseman/outfielder Juan Yepez from Triple-A Memphis. In corresponding moves, outfielder Tyler O’Neill was placed on the 10-day injured list with a lower back strain while right-hander Jake Woodford was placed on the 15-day injured list with right shoulder inflammation. To open a spot on the 40-man for Naile, righty Wilking Rodríguez was transferred to the 60-day injured list.

O’Neill, 28 in June, has a tremendous ceiling but has been held back by injuries in recent years. In 2021, he launched 34 home runs and hit .286/.352/.560 overall for a 144 wRC+. He also stole 15 bases and got good grades for his glovework, leading to a tally of 5.6 wins above replacement from FanGraphs. But last year, he made multiple trips to the IL and only got into 96 games, playing with diminished production when on the field. This year, he’s hitting just .228/.283/.337 while striking out in 34.3% of his trips to the plate.

The Cardinals have been dealing with a crowded outfield mix this year, as young players like Alec Burleson and Jordan Walker made the club out of camp, joining O’Neill, Dylan Carlson and Lars Nootbaar, though the latter missed some time on the injured list. It was hard enough to divvy up the playing time that the Cards optioned Walker to the minors to get more regular at-bats in the minors. Now that O’Neill isn’t in the mix, that should make things simpler, though Yepez has been recalled instead of Walker today.

As for Naile, 30, this will be his second stint on the roster, having been selected in June of last year. He spent the rest of the year getting frequently optioned and recalled, posting an ERA of 5.00 in the majors over nine scattered appearances. He was designated for assignment in February but cleared waivers and stayed in the organization. He has an ERA of 2.50 through 18 Triple-A innings so far this year. The club used a lot of their lower leverage pitchers yesterday when starter Jack Flaherty lasted only 2 1/3 innings, so bringing up Naile will give the club a fresh arm to call upon. He still has a couple of options and can be sent back down to the minors when needed.

Rodríguez, 33, was selected from the Yankees in the Rule 5 draft but had a shoulder injury pop up in the spring. He underwent surgery earlier this week and is expected to miss the next four to six months, making this move an expected formality.

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