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Phillies Extend Jose Alvarado

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The Phillies have signed lefty reliever Jose Alvarado to a three year contract, per a team announcement. The deal keeps Alvarado in Philadelphia through at least the 2025 season, and includes a club option for 2026. Alvarado is represented by OL Baseball Group.

According to Daniel Alvarez-Montes of El Extrabase, Alvarado will earn $9MM in each of the 2024 and 2025 seasons, with a $50K signing bonus. The 2026 club option is for $9MM, with a $500k buyout. Alvarado and the club already agreed to a $3.45MM salary for 2023 to avoid arbitration, effectively making this three-year, $22MM contract a two-year, $18.55MM extension. Still, it’s a three-year contract for luxury tax purposes, meaning the Phillies will be taxed on a $7.33MM AAV for 2023, as opposed to the previous $3.45MM figure. On the other hand, this also lowers the tax figure for 2024 and 2025 seasons compared to the $9.275MM figure it would have been if structured as a two year deal.

Alvarado, 28 in May, is coming off a phenomenal 2022 season that saw him post a 3.18 ERA across 51 innings of work. While that figure is good for a solidly above-average ERA+ of 129, digging a little deeper reveals that Alvarado posted a dazzling 1.92 FIP last season, the fourth best in baseball, minimum 50 innings pitched. The discrepancy between Alvarado’s run prevention and his underlying metrics likely comes from an inflated .340 BABIP that stands well above his career .302 mark. The rare lefty who can touch triple digits with his fastball, Alvarado’s success came in large part from a 37.9% strikeout rate, which stood as 7th in baseball among those with at least 50 IP.

Alvarado’s success came from more than just strikeouts, however. As a sinkerballer, Alvarado also managed to keep the ball on the ground at and impressive 56.1% clip. Only Jhoan Duran of the Twins had a higher groundball rate while striking out at least 30% of batters faced, while no pitcher who struck out batters at a higher clip than Alvarado induced grounders at a rate of even 50%. That mix of strikeouts and groundballs is a strong recipe for success, and by signing Alvarado long term, the Phillies are indicating confidence in his ability to continue his success past his 30th birthday.

Early in the offseason, the top end of the free agent market exploded, with Robert Suarez and Rafael Montero signing early for surprising guarantees in re-signing with their previous clubs. Suarez secured $46MM from the Padres, while Montero received $34.5MM from the Astros. Taylor Rogers, meanwhile, landed a $33MM guarantee in San Francisco. Those figures all outstrip Alvarado’s guarantee by a considerable amount, but the $18.55MM in new money surpasses the guarantees of free agent lefties who signed later this offseason such as Matt Strahm ($15MM), Andrew Chafin ($6.25MM), and Matt Moore, ($7.55MM). Given how Alvarado’s deal stacks up well against fellow relievers in his service bracket like Ryan Pressly, Huston Street, and Daniel Bard, taking this deal is an understandable decision for him. While there’s risk he continues to dominate as he did in 2022, the Phillies are risking that his struggles with injuries and command resurface from earlier in his career and limit his abilities going forward.

This is the second extension at the back of the Phillies’ bullpen in as many days, as the club agreed to a deal Seranthony Dominguez yesterday that could keep Dominguez in Philadelphia through the 2025 season. With these deals, the Phillies have locked up a pair of exciting, high-octane arms who can be penciled in for late inning duties alongside Strahm and Gregory Soto for the next few seasons. Having also also added Craig Kimbrel to their late inning mix for the 2023 season last month, the Phillies appear to have turned a bullpen that has long been considered an area of weakness for the club into a strength as they attempt to return to the World Series after last year’s surprise postseason run.

Phillies Extend Seranthony Dominguez

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The Phillies and right-handed reliever Seranthony Dominguez are in agreement on a two-year contract to avoid arbitration, according to a team announcement. The deal includes a club option for the 2025 season, which extends Philadelphia’s window of club control on Dominguez by one year. The deal guarantees him $7.25MM, MLBTR has learned. He’ll be paid $2.5MM in 2023, $4.25MM in 2024 and has a $500K buyout on an $8MM club option for the 2025 season. Dominguez is represented by Epitome Sports Management.

The 28-year-old Dominguez and the Phillies had faced a relatively wide gap in the arbitration figures they exchanged, with the team submitting a $2.1MM figure to Dominguez’s $2.9MM submission. He’ll now have his salaries for the next two seasons locked in, gaining some financial security in exchange for control over what would’ve been his first arbitration season.

It’s an understandable trade to make in Dominguez’s case, given the electric right-hander’s lengthy injury history. Dominguez’s sheer talent has never been in doubt. He debuted as a 23-year-old back in 2018 and immediately thrust himself into the mix for leverage innings with the Phillies, pitching to a 2.95 ERA with a huge 32% strikeout rate against a 9.5% walk rate in 58 innings. Brandishing a four-seamer that averaged a whopping 97.8 mph (and a sinker that sat 98.3 mph), Dominguez dominated opposing lineups, yielding a woefully anemic .157/.251/.250 batting line during his rookie campaign.

However, an elbow strain in June of 2019 shelved Dominguez, eventually leading to the discovery of damage in his right elbow’s ulnar collateral ligament. After a visit to Dr. James Andrews, Dominguez followed the recommended treatment of a platelet-rich plasma injection and rehab. After all, given that his UCL injury occurred in the summer, he’d likely have missed the entire 2020 campaign (or close to it) whether he underwent surgery immediately or whether he first attempted to rehab.

The treatment appeared to work at first. Dominguez reported to camp in 2020 and was expected to be ready early in the season, if not by Opening Day. He suffered a setback early in camp, though, at which point a Tommy John procedure was recommended. Unfortunately, the Covid-19 pandemic delayed the timing of the procedure, pushing the surgery back into late July. He returned to throw just one inning late in the 2021 season.

By the time Dominguez took the mound in 2022, he was more than 18 months removed from surgery and nearly three calendar years removed his original elbow injury. The operation and the time off appeared to do wonders, as the flamethrowing righty looked like his 2018 self, pitching 51 innings of 3.00 ERA ball with a 29.5% strikeout rate and 10.6% walk rate while averaging 97.8 mph on his four-seamer and 98.4 mph on his sinker. Dominguez’s 14% swinging-strike rate wasn’t quite back to its 2018 levels (an outstanding 15.5%), but he induced chases on pitches off the plate more frequently (32.3% in 2022, 29.6% in 2018) and was nearly every bit as stingy when it came to surrendering home runs (0.71 HR/9).

Now a locked-in member of the Philadelphia relief corps for at least the next two seasons, Dominguez will have the peace of mind both of having pitched a full season since undergoing surgery and also having secured the first life-changing guarantee of his career. He’ll be in the mix for saves alongside lefty Jose Alvarado, free-agent signee Craig Kimbrel and trade acquisition Gregory Soto — a quartet that will give Philadelphia one of the hardest-throwing bullpens — if not the hardest-throwing bullpen — in the sport. And, with Alvardo entering his final season of club control and Kimbrel playing the 2023 season on a one-year deal, it’s possible that Dominguez could emerge as the go-to option in the ninth inning by the time 2024 rolls around.

Even if the Phillies pick up their club option on Dominguez, he’ll still reach free agency in advance of his age-31 season. That’d still put him on the market early enough to land a sizable multi-year deal in free agency, and he’d have that opportunity after already banking $14.75MM over the course of this current contract.

Dominguez’s two-year contract will carry a slightly larger luxury-tax hit than he’d have cost the club by just inking a one-year deal. The Phils are already into the second tier of luxury penalization, meaning they’re being taxed at a 45% clip for any dollars spent between the $253MM and $273MM endpoints on the luxury scale. The $3.625MM average annual value on Dominguez’s deal comes with a $1.63MM luxury hit, rather than the $1.125MM hit he’d have cost them had he inked a one-year deal at the $2.5MM midpoint between their exchanged figures. Nevertheless, the Phillies are nowhere close to the $273MM barrier for the third tier of penalization, which is the most onerous of the luxury tiers, as that’s the point at which a team sees its top pick in the following year’s draft dropped by 10 places.

Angels Sign Matt Moore

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The Angels added veteran help to their bullpen Thursday, announcing the signing of left-hander Matt Moore to a one-year, $7.55MM contract. Right-hander Davis Daniel, who’s dealing with a shoulder strain, was placed on the 60-day injured list to open a spot on the 40-man roster. Moore is represented by Apex Baseball.

Moore began his career in 2011 as a starting pitcher for the Rays and pitched effectively, even earning an All Star appearance and down-ballot Cy Young award votes in 2013. Unfortunately, Moore missed most of the 2014 season after receiving Tommy John surgery, and struggled to remain effective as a starter following the procedure. In 557 2/3 innings across the 2014-19 seasons, Moore struggled to a 5.08 ERA (83 ERA+) while spending time as a member of the Rays, Giants, Rangers, and Tigers.

These struggles led Moore to Japan, where he pitched well as a reliever during the 2020 season. In 2021, he returned to stateside ball, but struggled once again in a swing role for the Phillies, posting a 6.29 ERA (67 ERA+) in 73 innings. The following offseason, Moore had to settle for a minor league contract with the Rangers, who he had previously pitched for during the 2018 season. That minors deal proved to be a stroke of genius by the Rangers front office, as Moore posted an astonishing 1.95 ERA (203 ERA+) across 74 innings in 2022.

Moore’s extreme success last season wasn’t entirely supported by his peripherals. He allowed a BABIP of just .257, nearly 40 points below his career norms, and his FIP came in more than a full run higher than his ERA. That same FIP is still a strong 2.98, however, and many underlying metrics reveal plenty of reason for optimism about Moore’s future headed into his age-34 season. His fastball gained an average of 1.5 mph in velocity in 2022, which allowed Moore to rack up far more strikeouts than he had previously. In 2021, Moore struck out just 18.9% of batters faced, but 2022 saw that figure climb all the way to 27.3%.

In addition, his began to allow much weaker contact in 2022, with his hard contact rate dropping from 35.5% all the way to 22.5% while his soft contact rate leapt from 14.3% up to 22%. Striking out batters at a clip similar to that of Luis Castillo (27.2% strikeout rate) while generating nearly as much weak contact as Max Scherzer (22.7% soft contact rate) is certainly a recipe for success, so it’s easy to see why the Angels would want to add Moore to their mix at the back of a bullpen that currently features Carlos Estevez, Ryan Tepera, and Aaron Loup among its top options.

With that being said, the Halos are almost certainly hoping they can find a way to help their new reliever limit his walks. Moore’s walk rate of 12.5% was third worst in the majors among all pitchers with at least 70 innings pitched, ahead of just Yusei Kikuchi and Caleb Smith. Moore’s sensational 2022 proves that if you can strike batters out at an elevated clip while limiting hard contact it’s still possible to have success even when you walk too many batters, as does the success of pitchers like Jorge Lopez and Dylan Cease. Nonetheless, Moore’s penchant for allowing free passes puts more pressure on the rest of his skills to hold up at their current top-tier levels if he’s going to remain among the best relievers in the game, as he was in 2022.

Moore’s signing continues what has been a fairly aggressive offseason from the Angels. While the club didn’t sign a marquee free agent or swing a blockbuster trade, they’ve added much-needed depth to a roster that already had plenty of star power and made important upgrades to almost every position on the roster. Moore and fellow free-agent acquisition Estevez strengthen the bullpen, while the signing of Tyler Anderson improves the rotation. Meanwhile, the lineup is bolstered by the additions of Hunter Renfroe, Gio Urshela, and Brandon Drury.

The Halos still have an uphill battle in the AL West this year, as the 2022 World Series champion Astros don’t appear to be slowing down, the Mariners are still on the upswing, and the Rangers had a second straight offseason full of splashy additions. Nonetheless, it’s clear that Moore makes the Angels better, even in spite of his age, walk rate, and lacking track record prior to 2022. If he manages to have a season resembling the one he had last year again, it’s easy to see a world where Angels fans no longer miss old closer Raisel Iglesias, who was sent to Atlanta at last year’s trade deadline.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the Angels and Moore were nearing an agreement. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported it was a one-year contract.

A’s, Greg Deichmann Agree To Minor League Contract

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The Athletics have signed corner outfielder Greg Deichmann to a minor league deal, according to his transactions log at MLB.com. He returns to the organization that initially drafted him in the second round back in 2017.

A left-handed hitter, Deichmann played four seasons in the Oakland minor league system. He worked his way to Triple-A Las Vegas by 2021, hitting .300/.433/.452 over 60 games there. As the trade deadline approached, the A’s dealt Deichmann alongside another minor leaguer to the Cubs for Andrew Chafin. Oakland remained firmly in playoff contention that summer, while the Cubs had fallen out of the mix in July and moved a number of players off the MLB roster.

That afforded Deichmann a chance for his initial big league action a couple weeks after the trade. The Cubs promoted him for his MLB debut in early August. He made it into only 14 games, collecting four hits in 30 at-bats. Deichmann spent the remainder of the season on optional assignment to their top affiliate in Iowa. He couldn’t replicate the solid numbers he’d posted during the Triple-A season’s first half, hitting .227/.298/.403 in 34 games.

The LSU product held his spot on Chicago’s 40-man roster last offseason but was designated for assignment shortly after Opening Day. He went unclaimed on waivers and spent the bulk of last year in Iowa after being outrighted. Deichmann limped to a .214/.271/.335 showing over 78 games there. He hit just seven homers while striking out at a huge 32.3% clip. The Cubs released him in August.

It was a season to forget, but Deichmann’s still just 27 years old and has drawn praise for his power potential at times. He’ll return to an environment in which he’s had prior success. He’s likely to open the upcoming season back in Las Vegas, adding upper level outfield depth to the organization. Deichmann owns a .239/.329/.410 line over parts of five minor league seasons.

Padres, Cole Hamels In Agreement On Minor League Deal

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10:18pm: Hamels’ deal would contain a $2MM base salary if he cracks the MLB roster, reports Bernie Wilson of the Associated Press.

3:20pm: The Padres and left-hander Cole Hamels are in agreement on a minor league deal, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. Presumably, Hamels will receive an invitation to major league Spring Training once the deal is finalized. The southpaw is represented by John Boggs & Associates.

Hamels, 39, is a wild card at this point in his career. He spent many years as one of the most reliable and consistent hurlers in the big leagues but has barely pitched at all over the past three seasons. From 2006 through 2019, he logged just shy of 2,700 innings with a 3.42 ERA in that time. He pitched at least 132 frames in all 14 of those campaigns and topped 180 in 11 of them. His ERA was never higher than 4.32 in any individual season and he kept that mark under 4.00 in all but three of those years. He also pitched in the postseason in eight of those campaigns, winning NLCS and World Series MVP honors in 2008 with the world champion Phillies.

But as mentioned, the story has been flipped in recent years. Hamels signed a one-year, $18MM deal with Atlanta for 2020 but was slowed by shoulder irritation as the start of the season neared. The pandemic ended up putting everything on pause, giving him time to recuperate. Once things ramped up again, however, he was dealing with triceps tendinitis. He came off the injured list in September and made one start, but went right back on the IL after that.

He didn’t sign with anyone in the subsequent offseason, eventually holding a showcase in July of 2021 to demonstrate his health to interested clubs. The Dodgers signed him at that point but he was ruled out for the season just a couple of weeks later with his shoulder pain returning. He didn’t pitch at all in 2022, recently telling the Associated Press that he underwent three surgeries in the past year, on his left shoulder, right knee and left foot. Nonetheless, he still had his sights set on a comeback and held a showcase for scouts last month. The Padres were connected to him and Michael Wacha in rumors a few days ago and have now added both pitchers to their staff.

It’s tough to know what to expect from Hamels at this point. That single start in 2020 is his only appearance over the past three years and he’s been under the knife quite a bit since then. But since this is just a minor league deal, there’s no real risk for the Padres. They can bring him into camp and see if Hamels is capable of getting back on track at all.

Up until recently, the club had a fairly lopsided rotation. Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell provided them with a strong front three but there were question marks behind them. The frontrunners for the backend spots in the rotation were Nick Martinez and Seth Lugo, both of whom are not really established as starters. Martinez had better results out of the bullpen last year while Lugo hasn’t really been a starter since 2017. The signing of Wacha this week could help to firm up the back of the rotation since he put up a 3.32 ERA with the Red Sox last year.

Hamels will be trying to prove himself healthy and force his way into that mix. If either Lugo or Martinez struggle in their attempts to secure rotation jobs, the Padres will need other options on hand. And there are also the inevitable pitcher injuries to consider. They have other options on the roster, such as Adrián Morejón, Jay Groome, Brent Honeywell Jr., Reiss Knehr, Ryan Weathers and Pedro Avila, but if Hamels looks anything like his old self, he could leapfrog all of those guys. If he does so, he’ll be pitching for his hometown team, having been born and raised in the San Diego area.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Padres Remain Narrowly Below $273MM Third CBT Threshold After Wacha Deal

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The Padres finalized their agreement with starter Michael Wacha this morning. That pact contained options from both the team and player perspective designed to meet the right-hander’s asking price while keeping the deal’s average annual value down for luxury tax purposes. It’s officially a four-year, $26MM guarantee, leading to a $6.5MM CBT hit.

That contract structure brings the Padres’ estimated luxury tax number around $272.2MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. That’s about $800K shy of the $273MM mark that delineates the third threshold of tax penalization. Public payroll figures are estimates, though Dennis Lin and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic confirm with team officials the club remains narrowly below the $273MM figure. That’s no coincidence, of course, with the Padres’ front office intentionally structuring some recent contracts to add to the roster while staying under that threshold.

At the start of the offseason, the Friars signed Nick Martinez to a deal that was similarly built with dual club/player options and technically came out to an approximate $8.667MM average annual value. More recently, San Diego’s extension negotiations with Yu Darvish were shaped by the team’s CBT situation. The Friars signed the All-Star righty to a five-year, $90MM extension covering the 2024-28 seasons last week. That paired with Darvish’s preexisting $18MM salary for the upcoming season to result in a matching tax hit. Before the extension, Darvish had counted for $21MM against the luxury tax (reflecting the AAV of his prior front-loaded six-year, $126MM agreement with the Cubs). The extension trimmed $3MM off the team’s tax bill this year, which freed up breathing room under the $273MM mark for the Wacha money.

In the process, San Diego made a commitment to Darvish running through his age-41 season. Investing for that long in a pitcher of his age certainly isn’t without risk, though it’s one the Friars preferred to a shorter-term deal that could’ve come with higher annual salaries. Lin and Rosenthal report that Darvish’s camp initially broached extension talks seeking a two-year, $60MM deal. Instead, the Padres made a longer commitment that guarantees the veteran hurler an extra $30MM altogether but comes at a much lower annual value.

According to the Athletic, San Diego also pursued a multi-year guarantee with player options for Johnny Cueto before he signed with the Marlins last month. San Diego was known to be involved in the Cueto market. Rather than accept a deal similar to the ones Martinez and Wacha ended up taking, Cueto took a one-year, $8.5MM pact with a 2024 club option from the Marlins.

Ultimately, the Padres’ maneuverings allow them to open Spring Training a hair south of the third tax threshold. A team’s luxury tax number is calculated at the end of the season, not during exhibition play or on Opening Day. Depending on how much room exists below $273MM, the Friars could certainly wind up above that number — either by making a midseason acquisition via trade or waivers or simply by selecting the contract of a non-roster Spring Training invitee whose deal contains a base salary above the league minimum (i.e. Pedro Severino).

For the time being, however, the organization has an obvious desire to keep south of the $273MM figure. Finishing a season above the third tax threshold results in a team’s top draft choice for the following year (2024, in this instance) being moved back ten spots. It also subjects a team to higher payments. The Friars are set to pay a 50% tax on any spending between $233MM and $253MM and a 62% fee on spending between $253MM and $273MM. They’d be taxed at a 90% rate on spending from $273MM to $293MM. The latter penalties are ones they’re clearly looking to avoid right now.

San Diego heads into the season as one of the favorites in the National League. Perhaps they’ll eventually go beyond the third threshold to maximize this roster’s chances of contending. As of now, they project for the third-highest CBT payroll in the majors. The Mets are running away from the rest of the league in spending, while the Yankees are reportedly just under the final tax threshold at $293MM and reluctant to surpass that figure.

Victor Martinez Joins Blue Jays’ Front Office As Special Assistant

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The Blue Jays are hiring five-time All-Star Victor Martinez as a special assistant in their front office, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com. The longtime big league catcher has connections to Toronto president/CEO Mark Shapiro and general manager Ross Atkins dating back to their time together in the Cleveland organization during the 2000’s.

Martinez, a native of Venezuela, debuted with the Indians late in the 2002 season. He started with a nondescript year and a half before a breakout in 2004 at age 25. Martinez hit .283/.359/.492 that year, earning his first All-Star nod and Silver Slugger award. Martinez would remain one of the sport’s top catchers throughout his time in Cleveland, which ended at the 2009 trade deadline when he was dealt to the Red Sox. He spent a year and a half in Boston before signing a four-year deal with the Tigers in free agency.

That deal worked out beautifully for Detroit. Even as Martinez saw decreasing action behind the dish, he continued to mash into his mid-30’s. He led the American League with a .409 on-base percentage in 2014. A .335/.409/.565 showing earned Martinez a runner-up finish behind Mike Trout in that year’s MVP balloting. Martinez would re-sign with Detroit on another four-year contract the following winter, though his production tailed off throughout that contract.

After the 2018 season, Martinez announced his retirement. He concluded a 16-season big league career with a .295/.360/.455 line, 246 home runs and 1178 runs batted in over just fewer than 2000 MLB games. He’ll bring that wealth of experience to the Toronto baseball operations group.

Aaron Ashby Likely Out Multiple Months With Shoulder Injury

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The Brewers anticipate that left-hander Aaron Ashby will miss “a couple of months” due to inflammation in his throwing shoulder, manager Craig Counsell told reporters this afternoon (relayed by Adam McCalvy of MLB.com). The skipper said Ashby has felt pain during his throwing session and will have to be shut down entirely for some time (via Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel).

Milwaukee leadership had already suggested last week the southpaw wouldn’t be ready for Opening Day due to shoulder fatigue. The inflammation and complete shutdown represents a much more significant development than the Brewers had previously indicated. It’s not a complete surprise but frustrating news for the highly-touted young pitcher.

Ashby also missed time last season, logging injured list stints due to inflammation in both his elbow and shoulder. The latter issue cost him a month between late August and September, lingered into the offseason, and continues to pose a problem. His return timeline still seems to lack much certainty, though it looks as if he could be out of action for an extended chunk of the season’s first half.

The 24-year-old is a former top prospect. He’s only managed a 4.47 ERA in 139 career big league innings thus far, though he’s shown an enviable combination of bat-missing and ground-ball propensities. Ashby struck out 26.5% of batters faced in his 107 1/3 frames last season. He paired that with a massive 56.7% grounder percentage. Rays ace Shane McClanahan was the only other pitcher (minimum 100 innings) to strike out at least a quarter of opponents while keeping the ball on the ground over half the time a batter does make contact. That highlights why evaluators have been optimistic about Ashby’s upside.

Milwaukee clearly values Ashby as a long-term contributor. The Brew Crew signed him to a $20.5MM guarantee last summer, adding a pair of club options to extend their window of control by two seasons. He only appeared in eight games after signing that deal before injuries intervened. There’s obviously plenty of time for Ashby to get healthy and become the caliber of pitcher Milwaukee has envisioned, though that’ll be on hold as they try to sort out his shoulder issues.

Even in his absence, the Brewers have a strong starting staff. The trio of Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta can rival any other club’s top three. Eric Lauer is a solid back-of-the-rotation arm, while Milwaukee reunited with Wade Miley on a one-year free agent deal. Ground-ball specialist Adrian Houser is on hand as the #6 option and would figure to start the season in long relief if the rest of the group stays healthy. There was some speculation the Brewers could put Houser on the trade block immediately after they signed Miley. Ashby’s longer-term health uncertainty seems to diminish that possibility.

Dodgers Sign Alex Reyes

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Feb. 16: The Associated Press has the details on the contract. Reyes can earn an extra $1MM in 2023, getting $250K for reaching 15, 20, 25 and 30 relief appearances. His relief appearances this year would also have an impact on his 2024 option, with a $300K bump for 15 and 20 and another $400K for 25.

If the option is triggered for 2024, he can earn $500K bonuses for spending 60 and 120 days on the active roster. He can also earn an extra $3MM in performance bonuses that year: $250K each for 50, 55, 60 and 65 relief appearances, $250K apiece for 30, 35, 40 and 45 games finished, and $500K each for 50 and 55 games finished.

Feb. 11: The Dodgers have an agreement in place with right-hander Alex Reyes, pending a physical, according to Juan Toribio of MLB.com. The deal will pay Reyes $1.1MM in 2023, and comes with a $3MM club option for 2024. The deal comes with a number of incentives which take the value up to $10MM. Craig Mish of the Miami Herald reports Reyes can add an additional $2MM in incentives in 2023, and a further $8MM in incentives in 2024.

Reyes, 28, has had an injury-plagued career but has tremendous upside and was an All Star in 2021 with the Cardinals. He is still recovering from shoulder surgery which will likely keep him out for part of the upcoming season, but as Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic notes, he is on track to pitch in the big leagues before the All Star break.

Originally signed by the Cardinals back in 2012, Reyes was one of the best prospects in the sport coming up through the minor leagues, regularly featuring towards the top of various top-100 prospect lists. He debuted in 2016, flashing signs of his immense promise in a 46 inning stint for the Cards that year, working to a 1.57 ERA. That tantalizing sample of work came with a 27.5% strikeout rate and 12.2% walk rate, but would be the bulk of Reyes’ work for the next few years.

He’d undergo Tommy John surgery that off-season, missing the entire 2017 campaign. His recovery from elbow surgery and a lat strain would restrict him to just one start in 2018, while he struggled to regain form in the minors in 2019 and was restricted to just three innings of work that year.

St Louis shuttled him off and on the active roster through the abbreviated 2020 season, but there were signs that Reyes – now a full-time – reliever was regaining his stuff. That year, he worked to a 3.20 ERA over 19 1/3 innings, with a well above-average 31.4% strikeout rate. He looked to be well and truly back to his best to begin 2021, working to an elite 1.52 ERA over the first half as the Cardinals’ closer, earning a trip to the All Star game as a result. The second half was another story though, as Reyes was tagged for a 5.52 ERA. All told, he wound up with a 3.24 ERA over 72 1/3 innings.

Reyes wouldn’t pitch again for the Cardinals, as he underwent shoulder surgery that ended his 2022 season before it began, and the Cardinals subsequently non-tendered him at the end of the year. There’s not been any recent updates on Reyes’ recovery, although Derrick Goold of the St Louis Post-Dispatch wrote in November that he was targeting a return in May this year.

Reyes was always one of the more intriguing names on the free agent market this winter, given the combination of his lengthy injury history and tantalizing upside. A $1.1MM deal does appear to represent a solid bet on that upside for the Dodgers, and while those incentives could raise the value of the contract, the club option for 2024 could turn out to be a bargain if Reyes can rediscover the form that took him to the Midsummer Classic in 2021.

The Dodgers have a track record of getting the best out of their pitchers, and they’ll certainly be hoping they can do the same with Reyes.  It’ll be interesting to see what his stuff looks like coming back from shoulder surgery, but he flashed a 97mph fastball and an 87mph slider back in 2021 which helped him post strikeout rates north of 30%.

As far as payroll goes, this is a modest addition but ticks the Dodgers number for 2023 up to around $227MM according to RosterResource. That’ll be a ~$244MM figure for luxury tax, which lands them roughly in the middle of the first and second tiers of luxury tax. There had been some speculation that the Dodgers might look to dip under the first luxury tax threshold to reset their penalties this year, but they’ll now need to shed around $11MM of luxury tax payroll to do that.

Yankees Unlikely To Pursue Trade In Wake Of Frankie Montas Injury

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It was reported yesterday that Yankees right-hander Frankie Montas will require shoulder surgery, keeping him out of action for most or perhaps all of the upcoming season. That led to some speculation that the club could try to make a trade for a replacement, but Andy Martino of SNY reports that no serious consideration of a trade has taken place and that the club will instead turn to internal replacements like Domingo Germán and Clarke Schmidt.

Per Martino’s report, there are a couple of reasons why the club is leaning in this direction. One factor is that they still have a strong front four even without Montas, which is certainly true. Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón would be in the discussion for the best one-two punch of any rotation in the league, while Luis Severino and Nestor Cortes provide the club with solid options for the next two slots.

That leaves the club in okay shape on paper, though another injury could quickly change that perception. Cortes is already hurt, dealing with a hamstring strain that caused him to withdraw from the World Baseball Classic, though he’s expected to be ready to go around Opening Day. Severino hardly pitched in the 2019-2021 stretch due to various injuries but managed to make 19 starts last year, though he did still make a trip to the 60-day injured list due to a lat strain. Rodón has largely been healthy the past two years but has had lengthy injury absences before, hardly pitching at all in 2019 or 2020.

By sticking with what they already have on the roster, the club is showing a lot of faith in that group to stay healthy, as well as believing in Germán and Schmidt. The former posted a 3.61 ERA in 72 1/3 innings last year, with a strong 6.4% walk rate but a subpar 19.5% strikeout rate. Schmidt had a 3.12 ERA in 57 2/3 innings with a 9.7% walk rate and 23.7% strikeout rate.

While believing in their players is one factor, Martino adds that the second factor is the club’s reluctance to cross the final luxury tax threshold, something that has come up in previous reports. Their current competitive balance tax figure is $292.48MM, per the calculations of Roster Resource, within a hair of the $293MM line. Going over it would lead to higher tax rates but no further penalties related to draft picks or things of that nature.

It doesn’t seem as though there’s absolutely no scenario in which the Yanks would cross that line. Martino reports that they did discuss Carlos Carrasco with the Mets this offseason. However, that was when it seemed as though the latter club was going to sign Carlos Correa and they wanted to move some salary off their books, such as the $14MM owed to Carrasco this year. Martino’s report indicates that once the Correa deal fell through and he signed with the Twins, Carrasco was no longer available.

Another path that the club gave some consideration to was Michael Wacha, as Joel Sherman of The New York Post reports that the Yankees checked in on him. However, he’s now off the board, having signed with the Padres this week.

It seems the team has some willingness to add another player under the right circumstances, but the desire to do so doesn’t appear very high. Free agency still features guys like Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer, whereas the trade market could theoretically have Chris Flexen and Adrian Houser on the block. It’s said that one phone call can quickly change things, but it seems the team is planning to lean on players already in the organization.

It’s a path that’s not without its risk, since the club has subtracted from its starting depth in recent years. Pitchers like Roansy Contreras, Jordan Montgomery, Hayden Wesneski, JP Sears and Ken Waldichuk and others have been dealt away over the past few seasons. The group still on the roster is strong for now but general manager Brian Cashman is aware the depth is shakier than usual. “We have a strong frontline and then obviously the next wave isn’t as strong as it has been in the past,” Cashman said to Sherman. “We need what we currently have to stay active and over the course of time, some alternative depth options might present themselves.” As they gear up for another battle in the cutthroat AL East, time will tell if they have the pieces to repeat as division champions.

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