Jameson Taillon Likely To Begin Season On Injured List
Cubs right-hander Jameson Taillon hasn’t yet appeared in an official Spring Training contest this year and manager Craig Counsell admitted that the righty may not have enough time to get ready for Opening Day. The skipper tells Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune that Jameson is trending towards beginning the season on the injured list.
Jameson was initially slowed at the start of this month with some soreness in his calves but then that was followed by some lower back tightness. With Opening Day now just over two weeks away, he’s running out of time to get himself into game shape.
When a player is placed on the injured list at the start of a season, the transaction can be backdated by three days. The Cubs also have two off days in the first couple of weeks of the schedule and those two facts could limit Jameson to only missing the first 10 games of the schedule.
But that would be contingent on him returning to health and getting back on track so that he can build up between now and then. The righty has generally been fairly durable apart from the Tommy John surgery that wiped out most of his 2019 and all of his 2020. He made 25 starts in 2017 and 32 in 2018 prior to the surgery, more recently making at least 29 starts in the three most recent campaigns.
Last year, he missed a couple of weeks due to a groin strain but otherwise was on the mound, logging 154 1/3 innings. The problem was that his earned run average jumped to 4.84, almost a full run better than his 3.91 from the year before. His 21.4% strikeout rate was actually a bit better than in 2022 but most other metrics moved in the wrong direction. His walk rate, ground ball rate, barrel rate and hard hit rate were a few ticks worse than the prior campaign.
Taillon signed a four-year, $68MM deal prior to last year and is still a key piece of the club’s rotation. He’ll be looking for a bounceback here in 2024 but will have to do so after a less than ideal start with the injury setbacks.
In the meantime, the Cubs have three rotation spots set for Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga and Kyle Hendricks. There was going to be a competition for a fifth spot behind those three and Taillon, but it appears there will now be two spots up for grabs for Jordan Wicks, Drew Smyly, Hayden Wesneski or Javier Assad, at least to start the year. That group would have also included Caleb Kilian but he’s been shut down with a teres major strain.
Wicks is one of the club’s best prospects and he debuted with seven starts last year. Neither his 4.41 ERA nor his 16.3% strikeout rate were especially impressive but he punched out 26.5% of hitters in the minors last year and could be set for a step forward in 2024.
Smyly is a veteran with over a decade in the big leagues but he’s coming off a rough season, as he got bumped to the bullpen and finished the year with an ERA of 5.00. Wesneski was also bumped to the bullpen, and often optioned to Triple-A, finishing last year with a 4.63 ERA. Assad was also in a swing role and had a solid 3.05 ERA on the year, though he may have been lucky to wind up there. His .268 batting average on balls in play and 83.3% strand rate were both on the fortunate side of average, which is why his 4.29 FIP and 4.41 SIERA were a bit less exciting.
Of those four, Wicks is the only one with a Spring Training ERA lower than 6.14 right now, for what that’s worth. Smyly can’t be optioned and the Cubs still owe him $11MM, as he’s making a salary of $8.5MM this year and has a $2.5MM buyout on a 2025 mutual option. That makes him likely to have a roster spot, whether he’s in the rotation or working as a long reliever in the bullpen.
Free agency still features a number of interesting names even though the regular season is getting near, though the Cubs may not have much interest in spending more money on the roster. At this point, there’s nothing to suggest Taillon is slated for a lengthy absence, just that he’s behind schedule by a few weeks right now. The Cubs are also hovering on the competitive balance tax line, with RosterResource calculating their CBT number as just $55K over the $237MM threshold.
They probably don’t want to add to that in order to address what is likely a temporary situation with Taillon. But as Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Michael Lorenzen and others linger in free agency into the middle of March, each pitching injury will lead to speculation about how it affects the markets for those guys. Lucas Giolito, Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander, Sonny Gray and many other notable pitchers around the league are dealing with spring injuries of varying degrees.
Assuming the Cubs stay in house, they will likely need innings this year from each of Wicks, Smyly, Wesneski and Assad. Each club battles injuries over a long season and the Cubs are also reportedly planning to manage Imanaga’s workload as he transitions from the weekly pitching rotation of Japanese baseball to the five-day turns in North American ball.
Offseason In Review: Kansas City Royals
Raise your hand if you had the Royals being one of the top-five spenders in free agency on your offseason bingo card back in November. Kansas City is focused on improving in the here and now, and their offseason reflects that.
Major League Signings
- Seth Lugo, RHP: Three years, $45MM (opt-out after year two of the contract)
- Michael Wacha, RHP: Two years, $32MM (opt-out after year one of the contract)
- Hunter Renfroe, OF: Two years, $13MM (opt-out after year one of the contract)
- Chris Stratton, RHP: Two years, $8MM (opt-out after year one of the contract)
- Will Smith, LHP: One year, $5MM
- Adam Frazier, 2B/OF: One year, $4.5MM
- Garrett Hampson, INF/OF: One year, $2MM
- Austin Nola, C: One year, $1MM
2024 spend: $53MM
Total spend: $110.5MM
Option Decisions
- None
Trades and Claims
- Acquired RHP Nick Anderson from Braves for cash
- Acquired RHP Kyle Wright from Braves for RHP Jackson Kowar
- Acquired RHP John Schreiber from Red Sox for minor league RHP David Sandlin
- Traded RHP Jonathan Heasley to Orioles for minor league RHP Cesar Espinal
- Traded RHP Taylor Clarke to Brewers for minor league RHP Ryan Brady and minor league SS Cam Devanney
- Traded OF Edward Olivares to Pirates for minor league INF Deivis Nadal
- Traded RHP Dylan Coleman to Astros for minor league RHP Carlos Mateo
- Traded 2B/OF Samad Taylor to Mariners for player to be named later or cash
- Selected RHP Matt Sauer from Yankees in the Rule 5 Draft
Extensions
- Bobby Witt Jr., SS: 11 years, $288.777MM (Witt can opt out after year seven; Royals have additional club options for 2035-37 seasons if Witt does not opt out)
Notable Minor League Signings
- Luis Cessa, Austin Cox, Sam Long, Mike Brosseau, Dan Altavilla, Sandy Leon, Tyler Duffey, Josh Lester, Logan Porter
Notable Losses
- Zack Greinke, Brad Keller, Matt Duffy, Bubba Thompson (waivers), Tucker Davidson (waivers), Max Castillo (waivers), Collin Snider (waivers), Samad Taylor, Edward Olivares, Dylan Coleman, Taylor Clarke, Jonathan Heasley, Jackson Kowar
The Royals’ second season under general manager J.J. Picollo, who replaced longtime president of baseball operations Dayton Moore after his firing, took a markedly different tone than the first. Kansas City spent more money on one individual signing, right-hander Seth Lugo, than they had in the entire 2022-23 offseason. Lugo proved to be one of two notable additions to the rotation, joining righty Michael Wacha in what should be a far more competitive pitching staff than the Royals ran out in 2023.
Lugo and Wacha will largely replace outgoing franchise icon Zack Greinke and non-tendered righty Brad Keller, who combined for 36 starts last year (27 from Greinke, nine from Keller). They’ll join last year’s deadline prize Cole Ragans and returning right-hander Brady Singer in a Kansas City rotation that should be far, far more stable than the 2023 group. Last year, only four Royals — Greinke, Singer, Ragans and Jordan Lyles — even started more than nine games.
While Lugo and Wacha aren’t exactly aces, the Royals hope they’ve unearthed one in the 26-year-old Ragans, who starred for them following his acquisition in the Aroldis Chapman swap with Texas. Ragans’ 2.64 ERA, 31.1% strikeout rate, 9.4% walk rate and 45.5% grounder rate have the look of a top-end starter. Lugo thrived in a move to the rotation in San Diego last season, notching a 3.57 ERA in 146 1/3 frames. Former and once-again teammate Wacha delivered a second straight solid season in San Diego and joins up with Lugo again. If the Royals can get something closer to the 2022 version of Singer (as opposed to the 2023 version), the rotation could be a strength. Lyles will eat innings in the fifth spot, but in-house names like Daniel Lynch IV and Alec Marsh could eventually push him for that spot.
Lugo and Wacha weren’t the only starters the Royals acquired, but they’re the only ones who’ll pitch for Kansas City in 2024. The Royals bought low on injured Braves right-hander Kyle Wright, shipping change-of-scenery candidate Jackson Kowar to Atlanta in order to pick him up — knowing full well that shoulder surgery will cost Wright the upcoming season. He will spend the year on the 60-day IL, but he has two remaining seasons of club control beyond the 2024 campaign. Adding him at the cost of a now twice-traded former first-rounder, Kowar, is a nice bit of long-term business for a team that has been plagued in the past by a lack of pitching depth.
Kansas City’s bullpen additions might not have generated as much attention but represented an even broader-reaching overhaul of the staff. Free agents Will Smith and Chris Stratton bring closing and setup experience — to say nothing of a pair of 2023 World Series rings — to the 2024 Royals. They cost a combined $13MM in guarantees, with Stratton coming aboard on a two-year deal with a surprising player option (more on that in a bit).
Right-hander Nick Anderson was a buy-low addition who has been dominant at times but rarely healthy. Righty John Schreiber had a big 2022 in Boston and took a step back in 2023 thanks largely to a spike in walk rate. But Schreiber misses bats at above-average levels, keeps the ball on the ground well and hadn’t struggled with his command prior to the 2023 season. Anderson is controllable through 2025 and cost only cash. Schreiber has three years of control and cost the Royals right-hander David Sandlin, a 2022 eleventh-round pick who’s significantly improved his prospect status since being selected.
Royals relievers in 2023 ranked 29th in the big leagues in terms of ERA and were 25th or worse in FIP and SIERA. Only two teams saw their bullpens walk relievers at a higher rate, and Kansas City’s 22.8% strikeout rate from the ‘pen was tied for 22nd in MLB. All of that includes a strong three months from the aforementioned Chapman in addition to contributions from Jose Cuas and Scott Barlow, both also moved at the deadline.
Generally speaking, it was a group that needed work, and the additions of Smith, Stratton, Anderson and Schreiber should go a long way toward helping the unit overall. The Royals will also hope that they struck gold on righty James McArthur, whom they acquired in a DFA trade with the Phillies last May. McArthur posted underwhelming numbers in both Philly and Kansas City … at least until a September call-up in which he fired off an incredible 16 1/3 innings of shutout relief with just five hits and no walks against 19 strikeouts. McArthur has also dominated in a small sample of 6 1/3 spring innings (one run) and is a clear name to watch for this team.
The additions on the position-player side of things were far more modest. Hunter Renfroe received a somewhat surprising two-year pact after a pedestrian showing with the Angels and a very rocky finish with the Reds. He’s a clear 20-homer bat who’ll add some needed punch to the K.C. lineup, but Renfroe’s once-elite defensive ratings and his power output have both dropped off recently. A move to Kauffman Stadium probably won’t help the latter, and his career .300 OBP (.297 in ’23) is a curious fit for a club that ranked 28th in the majors with a collective .303 OBP last season.
Adam Frazier joins Renfroe as something of a buy-low play on a veteran who’s seen better days. An All-Star with the Pirates, Frazier’s bat hasn’t been the same since being traded from Pittsburgh to San Diego at the 2021 trade deadline. He’s taken 1268 plate appearances with the Padres, Mariners and Orioles but mustered only a .244/.305/.345 slash in that time. Frazier’s $4.5MM guarantee with the Royals isn’t much by today’s standards, and his excellent bat-to-ball skills mesh with a Royals club that has tended to prioritize contact over power. Even during his rough stretch since that ’21 trade, Frazier has fanned at just a 12.9% clip. He won’t be the starter at second or in left field — that’ll be Michael Massey and MJ Melendez, respectively — but he gives the Royals some depth at both spots and a contact-oriented bat off the bench.
Speaking of the bench, that’s been overhauled as well. Gone are Samad Taylor, Edward Olivares and Matt Duffy, among others. Frazier will join superutility man Garrett Hampson as a free-agent pickup for the bench. Hampson posted roughly average offensive numbers in Miami last season — well ahead of his previously middling career marks — and can play just about anywhere on the field. He’s not an elite defender at any one spot and is a candidate to regress with the bat (.379 BABIP, 26.6% strikeout rate), but the Royals love speed and Hampson clocked into the 98th percentile of MLB players in sprint speed last year, per Statcast.
Kansas City also picked up Austin Nola on a cheap one-year deal late in the offseason after the Padres cut him loose. He has a minor league option remaining and could thus be ticketed for Triple-A, but Nola has experience playing multiple infield positions in addition to catcher and the Royals have considered carrying him along with both Salvador Perez and Freddy Fermin on the roster. Perez is better suited as a DH at this point but still figures to catch his share of games. If the Royals choose to carry all three, Nola gives them a viable backup on days they want to DH Perez and start the defensively superior Fermin behind the dish. If they don’t, he’ll give them an experienced backup option in Omaha.
The biggest piece of business for the Royals, however, was their franchise-record-shattering extension for shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. The $288.777MM deal more than tripled Perez’s $82MM pact, which had stood as the previous high-water mark for the franchise. Witt improved across the board as a sophomore in his age-23 season, with gains in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, walk rate, strikeout rate, power output, defensive grades, exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barrel rate. He finished the season one steal shy of the exceptionally rare 30-homer, 50-stolen base campaign.
Royals fans have legitimate cause to celebrate Witt’s extension, though it’s perhaps not the career-long commitment to the franchise most would believe at first glance. The opt-out provision after the contract’s seventh season has a strong chance to be exercised, at least if the two parties don’t revisit his contract status closer to that decision point. After the 2030 season, Witt will be guaranteed (ahem) “just” four years and an additional $140MM as he enters his age-31 season. It’d be an easy call for a player with his ability to trigger that opt out even in 2024, and salaries in MLB will presumably only have moved forward further by that point. The two parties could always look to renegotiate a longer pact at that point — one that decisively keeps Witt in Kansas City for his entire career.
Even if they don’t do so and Witt eventually takes the opt-out route, there’s still plenty to be happy about for the Royals. It’s true that the opt-out and enormous guarantee create more injury downside than legitimate contractual upside for the Royals, but that was the cost of buying out at least three prime-aged free-agent seasons on a 23-year-old superstar who looks likely to be a bona fide MVP candidate multiple times over the seven seasons in which the Royals have complete control over him.
Opt-outs were a common theme for the Royals this winter, not only in their extension with Witt but in nearly every free agent contract they doled out. Lugo can opt out after the 2025 season. Each of Wacha, Renfroe and even Stratton gains the ability to opt out after the upcoming season. Not long ago, opt-out clauses were generally reserved for the game’s elite free agents, but the Royals joined a growing number of smaller and mid-market teams that have used them as leverage to lure second- or even third-tier free agents. Stratton securing a 2025 player option as a 33-year-old reliever who averages just over 93 mph on his heater and has narrowly kept his ERA under 4.00 over the past four seasons was particularly surprising.
For the Royals, the opt-out provisions may have been something of a necessary evil, though. Free agents tend to want to sign in winning situations, and the team lost a whopping 106 games during the 2023 campaign. Even when offering multi-year deals, the Royals’ recent run of futility in the AL Central — one of baseball’s weakest divisions — is a tough sell to free agents who have a decent market. Offering the leverage of a competitive year-one salary with the allure of a return to the market next winter if things go well is a strong sweetener — one at which many clubs would likely balk.
There’s real downside to the gambit. If Wacha were to sustain a major injury or regress to his 2019-21 form, for instance, a team with the Royals’ typically modest payroll would be on the hook for a significant sum. The Padres gave Wacha a series of opt-outs when signing him last offseason, but that was effectively a mechanism to duck the luxury tax. Wacha was guaranteed $26MM on his “four-year” deal but was never likely to trigger a series of $6.5MM player options. In essence, the player options just tamped down the contract’s AAV because they’re considered guaranteed money.
The Royals’ series of opt-outs is far different; they’re guaranteeing market-rate salaries and pairing that with immediate opportunities to return to the market (or, in Lugo’s case, an opportunity two years down the line). If any of Wacha, Stratton or Renfroe exercise that player option, it’ll be because the 2024 results weren’t there, and that’ll be a notable and likely unwanted salary on the books for the 2025 Royals.
It’s a gamble the Royals probably prefer not to make but one that might have been necessary to bring about this type of change in a single offseason. And, make no mistake about it, this is an unequivocally improved and deepened Royals roster. The question is whether they’ve done enough to earnestly contend. A full season of Ragans could go a long way toward improving the outlook, if he can sustain his post-trade breakout. Ditto McArthur, though his success was in an even smaller sample. The rest of the Royals’ pickups were largely focused on raising the floor, but few come with star-caliber upside.
Any such improvements will need to come internally. A fully healthy, breakout season from first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino seems plausible. Nelson Velazquez won’t keep homering at the pace he did in ’23 (14 homers in 147 plate appearances), but he makes gobs of hard contact and looked like a potential middle-of-the-order bat after coming over from the Cubs. The Royals will need similar strides from Melendez, Massey and/or first baseman/DH Nick Pratto if they’re to gain the necessary ground to compete for a postseason berth. They finished 31 games back of the Twins and 33 games out of a Wild Card spot in 2023, and the AL Central has only seen the Tigers get better.
There’s no doubt the Royals are better, but even with so many additions, they could face an uphill battle as they look for not only their first trip to the playoffs since winning the 2015 World Series — but their first winning season since that fateful year.
How would you grade the Royals' offseason?
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B 53% (1,211)
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A 25% (576)
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C 15% (354)
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D 4% (91)
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F 2% (57)
Total votes: 2,289
Rob Refsnyder Suffers Fractured Toe
Red Sox outfielder Rob Refsnyder was hit by a pitch on his foot during yesterday’s Grapefruit League contest. He told reporters after the game that he had a “crack” in his pinky toe, per Ian Browne of MLB.com. Today, the club confirmed to reporters that Refsnyder has a fractured left pinky toe, with Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe among those to relay the news.
The club hasn’t provided a timeline for the recovery, but it seems certain that Refsnyder will begin the season on the injured list with Opening Day now just two weeks away. All injuries are different, but just for a point of reference, Joe Musgrove suffered a toe fracture in late February last year and returned to the club almost two months later in late April. Sean McAdam of MassLive estimates the injury could cost Refsnyder four to six weeks.
Refsnyder wasn’t going to be an everyday player for the Sox but was likely to be in the short side of a platoon. The righty swinger has drawn walks in 13.8% of his plate appearances against southpaws in his career, helping him produce a line of .270/.376/.380 and a 111 wRC+. That’s compared to an 8.4% walk rate, .219/.296/.308 batting line and 67 wRC+ against righties.
His lefty-mashing has been even more pronounced in recent seasons. He earned a free pass in 15.9% of his trips to the plate against lefties last year, compared to a 15.2% strikeout rate, and slashed .308/.428/.400 for a 133 wRC+.
The Sox have a number of left-handed hitters in their outfield and designated hitter rotation, including Jarren Duran, Masataka Yoshida and Wilyer Abreu. Righties Tyler O’Neill and Ceddanne Rafaela are in the mix as well but Refsnyder would have factored in on occasion when there was a tough southpaw on the mound. That won’t be option for manager Álex Cora early in the schedule as Refsnyder will be working his way back from this injury.
In the meantime, that could open up a bench role for someone else. C.J. Cron is in camp as a non-roster invitee while Bobby Dalbec is one the 40-man roster, but with one option year remaining. It was reported last month that the Sox were interested in adding a righty-swinging outfielder to help pair with Duran, Yoshida and Abreu. They later added Cron but he isn’t an option on the grass.
Given the club was already interested in a righty-swinging outfielder and Refsnyder is now set to miss some time, perhaps they will have a bit of increased urgency to get something done with a free agent before the season starts. Michael A. Taylor, Tommy Pham and Adam Duvall are still available, while free agent Robbie Grossman is a switch hitter who is better against southpaws.
Brewers Notes: Turang, Frelick, Ortiz, Rea
For a second straight season, Brice Turang will open the year at second base for the Brewers. Manager Pat Murphy confirmed the decision to name Turang as Milwaukee’s starting second baseman last night (link via David Adler of MLB.com). Murphy opined that Turang is poised to take a “quantum leap” forward in 2024 and solidify himself as an everyday player in the big leagues after an up-and-down rookie season that left him with lackluster offensive numbers.
Turang, 24, was the No. 21 overall pick in the 2018 draft and ranked among Milwaukee’s top prospects for several years before making the 2023 Opening Day roster and debuting in the majors. He posted above-average but not elite numbers in Triple-A during the 2022 season prior to that MLB debut, but his first year in the big leagues highlighted some of the limitations in his game. Turang has long been touted as a plus defender and plus runner, but he hit just .218/.285/.300 in 448 plate appearances last season. The resulting 60 wRC+ suggests that Turang was a whopping 40% worse than average at the plate.
While Turang’s 21% strikeout rate was a bit lower than the league average and his 8.5% walk rate was sound, he also put together one of the weakest batted-ball profiles in the sport. Turang ranked in just the fifth percentile of MLB hitters in terms of barrel rate, per Statcast, while his 26% hard-hit rate landed in the fourth percentile and his 85.5 mph average exit velocity placed in only the second percentile. Turang’s sprint speed was elite, but even in spite of his wheels he batted just .268 on balls in play because of that penchant for feeble contact.
Even amid questions about his offensive outlook, the glove and speed will land him another Opening Day nod at second base. That sets the Milwaukee infield everywhere but the hot corner. Rhys Hoskins has first base locked down. Willy Adames will return at shortstop. Heading into camp, it looked like the third base job could be Joey Ortiz‘s to lose, but Milwaukee’s decision to experiment with top outfield prospect Sal Frelick at third base has created more of a competition.
Murphy and Brewers infielder coordinator Matt Erickson have heaped praise onto Frelick for his work at third base this spring, writes Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. The 23-year-old has “immediately” checked every box the team would like to see in terms of his footwork in the infield, Erickson tells Hogg, expressing further confidence that Frelick’s mechanics on more difficult on-the-move throws can improve with experience. Erickson noted that the overall package of defensive skills at third base is still not on par with others in camp, but that’s to be expected for a player who didn’t even play at the hot corner in his amateur days. Moreover, both Erickson and Murphy are amazed that Frelick has already come as far as he has.
The result could be something of a split workload for Frelick between right field and third base. The Brewers acquired the slick-fielding Ortiz alongside left-handed rotation hopeful DL Hall in the trade sending ace Corbin Burnes to Baltimore. Ortiz, like Turang, is considered a plus defensive shortstop but won’t get much opportunity at that position due to the presence of Adames. He could log considerable time at the hot corner, though Adler suggests Ortiz could also see time at second base against left-handed pitching. He’s a right-handed bat and natural option to spell Turang, who hit just .188/.278/.188 (35 wRC+) against southpaws.
A strict platoon arrangement for the group might not be the answer, however. While Ortiz can play either third or second against lefties, both Turang and the lefty-swinging Frelick (.184/.279/.289, 59 wRC+) struggled greatly in limited action against left-handed pitching. Right-handed-hitting Andruw Monasterio turned in a .291/.387/.392 slash (118 wRC+) against lefties and could spend time at third base if/when Ortiz slides over to the keystone to spell Turang against southpaws. Similarly, outfielder Joey Wiemer (.267/.298/.517, 115 wRC+ against lefties) could potentially spell Frelick against lefties.
If anything, Frelick’s burgeoning versatility and the blend of right- and left-handed-hitting infield/outfield options only gives Murphy more fuel to play matchups against opposing pitchers. Importantly, all of Turang, Ortiz, Frelick, Wiemer and Monasterio grade as above-average to plus defenders at their respective positions (at least, in the case of the outfield with regard to Frelick). There’s considerable opportunity for all five to work their way into the lineup for semi-regular playing time, if not more.
As far as the Milwaukee rotation is concerned, there’s still some fine tuning to be sorted out, but one open question became clear this week when Murphy confirmed that right-hander Colin Rea will be in his rotation (via Adler) He’ll be penciled into a starting staff that also includes Freddy Peralta and Jakob Junis. Veteran Wade Miley has been behind schedule due to shoulder troubles but progressed to facing teammates in a simulated game today, tweets Hogg. A firm timeline for his return remains unclear and dependent on how he continues to progress.
Rea, however, will be assured a starting job. That’s a notable development for a journeyman right-hander who’s bounced from the Padres, to the Marlins, to the Cubs, to the Brewers, to Japan and back to Milwaukee. The 33-year-old pitched 124 2/3 innings for the Brew Crew in 2023, logging a 4.55 ERA with strong command and solid ground-ball tendencies but a slightly below-average strikeout rate. He’s been sharp so far in spring training, firing eight innings — including four no-hit frames his last time out — with a dozen strikeouts and just two walks.
Rea inked a one-year, $4.5MM deal back on Nov. 2. He’ll earn a $3.5MM salary in 2024 and is guaranteed that plus a $1MM buyout on a $5.5MM option for the 2025 season. He can also pick up an additional $500K of incentives each season, based on innings pitched, giving him the opportunity to earn $10MM over the next two seasons in Milwaukee.
Nationals Outright Carter Kieboom
The Nationals announced that third baseman Carter Kieboom has cleared outright waivers and been sent outright to Triple-A Rochester. There had not been any previous indication that he had been removed from the 40-man roster, so the club’s count will drop to 39.
Kieboom, now 26, was the club’s first round draft pick in 2016. He was selected 28th overall that year and hit well enough in the minors that he was considered a top 100 prospect in the years to come. Baseball America ranked him #41 in the majors in 2019 and then #15 in 2020.
Unfortunately, his progress has been held back since then. He received 371 plate appearances over 2020 and 2021 but hit just .206/.315/.285 in that time. He then required Tommy John surgery early in 2022, wiping out that entire season for him.
He returned last year but health continued to play a role. He started the season on the injured list due to a shoulder impingement and was optioned to the minors when activated in May. He then experienced some lat soreness in the minors. He eventually played 27 major league games and 44 minor league contests for the year, hitting .207/.266/.368 in the bigs and .256/.362/.411 on the farm.
Kieboom has continued to hit in the minors, with a Triple-A slash of .281/.392/.457 over three different seasons. But he’s now coming off two injury-marred seasons and is out of options. The Nats seemingly didn’t have much intention of giving him a run of playing time this year, as they signed Nick Senzel to be their everyday third baseman. It seems none of the other 29 clubs had much appetite to give Kieboom a shot either, as they all passed on the chance to grab him off waivers.
He will now stick with the Nationals but without taking up a spot on the 40-man roster. Players with three years of service time can reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency but Kieboom is just under that threshold, currently at two years and 168 days. Since a year rolls over at 172 days, he is just four days shy of the three-year marker.
If he stays healthy and productive this year, he could earn his way back into the plans in Washington. Senzel is only under club control through 2025 and could find himself on the trade block this summer if he’s playing well, as the Nationals aren’t likely to be in contention this year.
Padres, White Sox Have Recently Discussed Dylan Cease Trade
Trade talk surrounding White Sox righty Dylan Cease has apparently rekindled in full. Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that the Padres and White Sox have recently discussed the 2022 AL Cy Young runner-up, which aligns with yesterday’s report from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, wherein he noted that the White Sox have had several members of their front office present to get first-hand looks at the Padres in recent days. The Friars join the Yankees and Rangers as clubs prominently linked to Cease in the second act of his offseason trade candidacy.
By now, the merits and risks regarding a trade for Cease have been well documented. He’s an affordable — $8MM in 2023, arb-eligible in 2025 — 28-year-old righty with two years of team control who demonstrated his upside with a second-place Cy Young finish in 2022 but struggled through a down year in 2023, when he notched a 4.58 ERA with slightly diminished (but still far better than average) strikeout and velocity numbers. Cease has worse command than one would prefer from a top starting pitcher, which has long been an issue, but he and other Sox hurlers have also been harmed by perennially poor defensive alignments behind them.
Last year’s pedestrian ERA notwithstanding, Cease is a durable power pitcher whom other organizations undoubtedly view as a playoff-caliber starter — if not a true No. 1 then at least a strong No. 2-3 option in a postseason rotation. No pitcher in baseball has started more games than Cease’s 109 dating back to 2020 — his first full season at the MLB level. Even if one were to assume that Cease’s 2022 season was an outlier, career-best campaign while his 2023 ERA was somewhat fluky in nature, a look at his entire body of work over the past three seasons reveals strong overall numbers: 526 2/3 innings of 3.54 ERA ball with a huge 29.8% strikeout rate against an elevated 10.1% walk rate. Fielding-independent metrics tend to support the idea that Cease’s talent level lands somewhere in the mid- to upper-3.00s.
In terms of pure team fit, the Padres are as strong a match as one could conjure up. The Friars’ offseason has been something of a financially motivated reset, but the team isn’t about to enter a full-scale rebuild with Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove all signed long-term. The Padres only have three clear starters at the moment in Musgrove, Darvish and trade acquisition Michael King, who came over from the Yankees in the Juan Soto swap.
Adding Cease to the rotation and cementing the top four spots would create a fifth-starter battle including Matt Waldron, Randy Vasquez, Jhony Brito, Pedro Avila, Jay Groome and others. The team’s chances of competing with that group vying for only the final spot in the rotation, obviously, would be far greater than needing to rely on two names from that unproven group to carry the back end of the staff. (Some of those names, of course, could be included in a theoretical trade package with the White Sox.)
The affordable nature of Cease’s contract surely appeals to a San Diego club that has slashed the present-day cost of its roster by nearly $100MM. That’s doubly true in that Cease’s $8MM salary wouldn’t put the Padres anywhere particularly close to the $237MM luxury-tax threshold they’re clearly hoping to avoid. RosterResource projects San Diego at just over $216MM in luxury obligations. Cease would be a net $7.26MM in luxury considerations, bringing the team to around $223.5MM. That’d still leave some room if president of baseball operations A.J. Preller wants to add Cease and pursue one more free agent outfielder, as has been rumored; the Padres were connected to Adam Duvall, Michael A. Taylor and old friend Tommy Pham earlier this week.
While Preller’s years of frenetic activity on the trade market lead to constant churn in the farm system, the Padres remain strong in that regard. Each of MLB.com, ESPN and Baseball America rank the Padres among the sport’s top six farm systems, due largely to strong drafting and international scouting, in addition to replenishing some of their lost depth in the trade that sent Soto and Trent Grisham to New York. Top prospect Jackson Merrill looks on track to be the team’s Opening Day center fielder and is surely all but untouchable alongside ballyhooed catcher Ethan Salas. But the Friars have as many as six other prospects who’ve drawn top-100 fanfare, in addition to a slew of near-MLB-ready talent that could entice the ChiSox to part with Cease.
Rays’ Taj Bradley To Open Season On Injured List
Rays right-hander Taj Bradley, who underwent an MRI after being scratched from yesterday’s spring start, will open the season on the 15-day injured list after being diagnosed with a pectoral strain, manager Kevin Cash announced this morning (X links via Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). Bradley will be shut down from throwing entirely for “at least” the next two weeks and will be reevaluated at that point. Even in a best-case scenario where he’s cleared to resume throwing at that point, he’d need to build back up and go on a minor league rehab assignment before he’s an option to rejoin the big league rotation.
Bradley’s pec strain is the latest in a series of health troubles for a Rays rotation that is among the most talented in the sport but is also currently among the most injury-ravaged. He’ll join Shane McClanahan (Tommy John surgery in August), Jeffrey Springs (Tommy John surgery in April) and Drew Rasmussen (internal brace surgery in July) on the injured list for a Tampa Bay club that is still awaiting the return of former top pitching prospect Shane Baz, who underwent his own Tommy John procedure in 2022.
On the surface, Bradley’s loss may not seem critical. The 22-year-old debuted to considerable fanfare in 2023 but turned in an uneven season, ultimately finishing the year with a 5.59 ERA in 104 2/3 big league frames. For a pitcher who entered the season widely considered among the sport’s top 50 to 75 overall prospects, it wasn’t the most exciting debut. Bradley had his share of strong performances but struggled more often than not in his first taste of the majors.
Despite the shaky bottom-line run prevention numbers, however, Bradley offered plenty of reason for optimism. His 28% strikeout rate is well north of the league average, while his 8.5% walk rate is solid. He averaged a strong 96.2 mph on his heater and posted slightly better-than-average marks in swinging-strike rate (11.3%) and opponents’ chase rate (32%). His primary issue last year, both in the big leagues and in Triple-A, was seeing an inordinate percentage of his fly-balls end up leaving the yard (19.2% in the majors, 23.1% in 10 Triple-A starts).
That hasn’t been an issue for Bradley at all in the past, however, even in his first run through the Triple-A level in 2022. Prior to the ’23 season, Bradley actually had posted a considerably lower-than-average HR/FB mark throughout his minor league career. Metrics like xFIP and SIERA, which normalize a pitcher’s HR/FB rate, viewed him in a far more favorable light (3.83 and 3.82, respectively). And with 142 1/3 innings pitched in 2023, Bradley was set to enter the 2024 season without any real limits on his workload. A breakout season seemed quite plausible.
Any such steps forward will be placed on hold indefinitely for the time being, which is a major setback for a Rays club that’s already uncharacteristically thin on rotation depth. Tampa Bay will enter the season with Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale and converted reliever Zack Littell in the top three spots of the rotation. Twenty-six-year-old Ryan Pepiot, acquired from the Dodgers in the Tyler Glasnow trade, will likely grab the No. 4 spot on the staff. He’s long been a touted prospect himself and carries excellent results in the majors to date, but injuries have regularly limited him as well. He opened 2023 on the 60-day IL with a Grade 2 oblique strain and pitched just 64 2/3 frames overall.
Rotation alternatives in camp include Jacob Lopez, Tyler Alexander and Chris Devenski, all of whom are on the 40-man roster. Alexander has started games for the Tigers in the past and had been ticketed for a swingman role with Tampa Bay, but he could conceivably get a look early in ’24 now. He and Devenski were both being stretched out to handle at least three innings at a time in camp anyhow, and either could be pushed beyond that point.
In terms of non-roster players, former NPB starter Naoyuki Uwasawa and prospect Mason Montgomery are the most interesting candidate names in the group. Uwasawa, 30, has a career 3.19 ERA in nine NPB seasons and tossed 170 innings of 2.96 ERA ball for the Nippon-Ham Fighters in 2023, but he’s a soft-tosser with sub-par strikeout rates even in Japan. He’s been rocked for 13 runs in just 5 2/3 innings in spring training thus far. Montgomery, meanwhile, has just 16 innings above the Double-A level under his belt and has been tagged for three runs in his 4 1/3 spring frames.
Cash indicated that the Rays will consider several in-house options to replace Bradley in the rotation, though another injury on an already thinly stretched pitching staff will undoubtedly lead to both speculation and some internal discussions about adding from outside the organization. The Rays’ projected $99MM Opening Day payroll (via RosterResource), somewhat incredibly, is already a franchise-record for the club. That casts doubt on whether they’d even be able to bring in one of the second-tier remaining arms in free agency, such as Michael Lorenzen or Mike Clevinger.
That said, there will also be several veteran arms on minor league deals elsewhere in the league who’ll likely opt out in the latter stages of camp, plus a slew of pitchers made available via DFA and waivers as other clubs set their Opening Day rosters. It wouldn’t be terribly surprising to see the Rays add some extra depth in some form between now and Opening Day, particularly if they begin to get the sense that Bradley’s injury will require a longer shutdown period than that best-case outlook of two weeks.
Lucas Giolito Undergoes Internal Brace Procedure
March 13: The Red Sox announced this morning that Giolito underwent an internal brace procedure to repair the UCL in his right elbow. That comes with a shorter recovery timetable than a full Tommy John surgery and will give the right-hander a chance to pitch the entire 2025 season if things go smoothly in his rehab. He’ll likely still miss the entire 2024 campaign, however.
March 11: Red Sox right-hander Lucas Giolito will undergo surgery on his right elbow tomorrow afternoon, per Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe and Sean McAdam of MassLive. It’s still unknown whether he will require a full Tommy John surgery or a brace procedure, but he’s ticketed for an extended absence either way.
It was reported last week that Giolito has a partial tear in his ulnar collateral ligament in his right arm as well as a strain of his flexor tendon. A decision had not yet been made on the path forward, with the club sending Giolito for a second opinion. After gathering further information, it now seems that it will be necessary for him to go under the knife. Giolito previously underwent Tommy John surgery as a prospect back in 2012.
It seems that some of the details of the procedure will be worked out on the operating table, as the medical team will assess the level of damage in his elbow once they get in there and then decide on the best path forward. Either way, Giolito seems slated to miss the entirety of the 2024 season. A brace procedure is a relatively new alternative to Tommy John that can come with shorter recovery times, but even those rehab windows are in the ballpark of a year.
It’s a devastating blow for both Giolito and the Red Sox. The righty posted excellent results from 2019 to 2021 with the White Sox, with a 3.47 earned run average in that time. He struggled in 2022, with his ERA bumping to 4.90, but seemed to be bouncing back in the first half of last year.
He had a 3.79 ERA through 21 starts as he approached the open market and seemed to be trending towards being one of the top free agents of the 2023-24 offseason. He was traded to the Angels but then saw his performance dip again. He had a 6.89 ERA in six starts for the Halos as that club fell out of contention and put him on waivers. The Guardians put in a claim but then Giolito had a 7.04 ERA in six starts for that club.
As recently as last summer, he seemed to be trending towards a nine-figure mega deal but instead limped into free agency with little momentum behind him. He settled for a two-year, “prove it” deal with the Red Sox, netting a guarantee of $38.5MM. He also secured an opt-out in that deal so that he could return to free agency if he posted better results in 2024.
That now won’t happen and Giolito will stay on Boston’s books through 2025. The club came into this winter looking to bolster their rotation but ended up being fairly inactive in that department. They did sign Giolito but also flipped Chris Sale to Atlanta for Vaughn Grissom, making it a sort of neutral set of moves for the rotation, depending on how the Sale/Giolito swapped was viewed.
With Giolito now set for an extended absence, the rotation is now the same as last year but without Sale. It’s possible that steps forward from their incumbent options of Nick Pivetta, Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford or Garrett Whitlock could make that up somewhat, but it’s nonetheless unideal for the club’s big offseason splash to miss the entire season.
The club has been operating with a bit less spending capacity than in the past. Club president Sam Kennedy said last month that new chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has payroll “parameters” that he is operating under. RosterResource pegs this year’s payroll at $180MM, whereas the data at Cot’s Baseball Contracts shows the club has been as high as $236MM in the past. It appears the club doesn’t look favorably on its chances of competing in a competitive American League East and isn’t willing to spend gobs of money to chance a chance at contention that may be narrow.
Free agency still features big names like Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery. The Sox have been frequently connected to the latter but without anything seeming close, at least partially due to those apparent budgetary concerns. If the club has interest in a more affordable option for eating some innings, guys like Michael Lorenzen, Jake Odorizzi and Noah Syndergaard remain unsigned.
For Giolito, he will be focused on his rehab for the foreseeable future. He will turn 30 years old in July and will turn 31 before his deal with the Sox expires and he returns to the open market after 2025.
The Opener: Dodgers, Padres, Cease, Williams
As Opening Day draws near, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Dodgers, Padres wrap up Spring Training:
Both the Dodgers and Padres will play their final games of Spring Training today as they prepare for their trip to Seoul, South Korea for a two-game regular season set that will occur a week prior to the rest of the league’s Opening Day. Today’s games will feature both clubs’ starters for Game 2 of the series as they get their final preseason work in before the regular season kicks off. The Dodgers are welcoming the Mariners to Camelback Ranch at 3:05pm ET this afternoon, where right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto will take on youngster Bryan Woo. Meanwhile, the Padres will host the A’s at 3:10pm ET with right-hander Joe Musgrove facing off against veteran righty Ross Stripling.
2. Cease back in the rumor mill?
Right-hander Dylan Cease was the talk of the offseason early in the winter, frequently connected to upwards of half a dozen clubs while White Sox brass made clear that their staff ace was available for the right price. Over the course of the offseason, it eventually became clear that price was too high for interested teams to stomach, and the South Siders entered Spring Training with the expectation that Cease would remain in Chicago to open the year. With just two weeks until Opening Day, it appears some clubs are making a late push to land the righty before the season begins. A report yesterday indicated that the Yankees have returned to the negotiating table in the wake of Gerrit Cole‘s recent elbow issues. They aren’t the only team that continues to talk to the Sox about Cease, however, as the Rangers have also reportedly had recent discussions with the club regarding the right-hander. Will the renewed talks lead to a buzzer-beating deal before Opening Day?
3. Williams receiving second opinion:
Brewers closer Devin Williams has been slowed by back issues this spring, and today is expected to meet with a spine specialist in California to receive a second opinion in hopes of ruling out a more serious injury. Williams, 29, is coming off his first season as the full-time closer in Milwaukee and enjoyed a dominant 2023 campaign. In 61 appearances, the right-hander struck out 37.7% of batters faced while pitching to an excellent 1.53 ERA and racking up 36 saves. If Williams were to miss significant time due to injury, it would be a major blow to Milwaukee’s chances in a crowded NL Central division. A lengthy absence could also complicate any midseason efforts to shop Williams ahead of his final year of team control in 2025, should the Brewers fall out of the race early and consider selling at the deadline. Should Williams begin the season on the injured list, the club would likely turn to right-handers Joel Payamps and Abner Uribe for late-inning duties.
Rangers, White Sox Have Recently Discussed Dylan Cease
Significant trades halfway through Spring Training are rare, yet speculation about White Sox’s staff ace Dylan Cease hasn’t gone away. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported this morning that the Yankees put a new trade proposal on the table for Chicago’s expected Opening Day starter. Meanwhile, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes that the Rangers are still considering which players they might need to relinquish to try to pry Cease from the Sox.
Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reports that the Sox and Rangers have had recent conversations regarding Cease. Rosenthal indicates that Chicago seems to be “getting more serious” about dealing the hard-throwing righty this spring.
Manager Pedro Grifol demurred this evening when asked whether he still expected Cease to start for the Sox on Opening Day. “I don’t know. I mean, how am I supposed to know that,” he asked rhetorically (via Scott Merkin of MLB.com). “I don’t know what’s going to happen out there. I don’t know where other teams are, what their urgency is. … I leave that to our major league scouts, our general manager, the front office.”
While the Yankees’ renewed interest in Cease is tied to Gerrit Cole’s MRI, Texas hasn’t dealt with any recent injuries to their rotation. Yet they went into camp knowing that three of their top starters — Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Tyler Mahle — were going to begin the year on the shelf. Mahle and deGrom seem likely to be out past the All-Star Break as they work back from last year’s respective Tommy John procedures. Scherzer underwent back surgery in December and is expected to be sidelined into June.
That puts a lot of pressure on the rest of the pitching staff to hold the fort for the season’s first couple months. The Rangers have a front four of Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Dane Dunning and Andrew Heaney. Left-hander Cody Bradford is the favorite for the #5 job to open the season. Texas optioned Cole Winn over the weekend, taking him out of the mix for an Opening Day job. Owen White and Zak Kent are on the 40-man roster but have a combined two MLB appearances between them (both by White). José Ureña and Adrian Sampson are in camp on non-roster deals but should be behind Bradford on the depth chart.
If healthy, that’s still a solid front four. Yet there’s a fair amount of injury risk with much of that group. Eovaldi has twice undergone Tommy John surgery in his career. Gray has been on the injured list four times in his two seasons as a Ranger. Heaney was healthy last season but lost a good chunk of 2022 to shoulder problems. Even Dunning has a Tommy John surgery in his history, although he has been durable and quite effective for the last three seasons.
Even if that entire group stays healthy, Texas would benefit from another arm who can push Bradford to a long relief role. The southpaw turned in a 5.30 ERA in his first 56 big league frames a year ago. He has excellent control but struggled with home runs last season. That’s likely to be a recurring concern as a fly-ball pitcher without overpowering stuff. His fastball averaged 90.4 MPH.
To his credit, the Baylor product has pitched well this spring. Bradford has rattled off 11 innings of three-run ball, fanning nine against a pair of walks. Still, that’s unlikely to deter the front office from considering ways to upgrade the staff as they look to defend the first World Series in franchise history.
The Sox’s asking price on Cease has remained high, which is why he’s still in Chicago two weeks from Opening Day. The 2022 AL Cy Young runner-up is coming off a down year, turning in a 4.58 ERA over 177 innings. With mid-90s velocity and a strikeout rate that sat above 27% last season, he’s a clear rebound candidate. Cease is under arbitration control for two more years and will make $8MM in 2024. That affordability makes him an attractive alternative to top remaining free agents Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery. The Rangers have had a fairly quiet offseason, thanks in part to trepidation about the long-term viability of their TV deal with Bally Sports.