Trevor Stephan, Daniel Espino Require Surgery; Gavin Williams To Open Season On IL
Guardians setup man Trevor Stephan will be undergoing a UCL reconstruction procedure (i.e. Tommy John surgery) within the next seven to 14 days, the team announced. Cleveland had shut Stephan down for three weeks in late February, but the discomfort in his arm persisted and subsequent testing has revealed that his ulnar collateral ligament is “not providing adequate stability.”
There’s further discouraging news on righty Daniel Espino — formerly one of the top prospects in all of baseball. The 23-year-old righty, who missed the entire 2023 season due to a capsule tear that required shoulder surgery, underwent a second shoulder procedure yesterday — this one to repair new capsule damage as well as his rotator cuff. He’s expected to miss the entire 2024 season, though an exact timetable on his recovery isn’t yet known, per the team.
In addition to that pair of injuries, starting pitcher Gavin Williams will begin the season on the injured list, tweets Mandy Bell of MLB.com. He’s been slowed by some discomfort in his right elbow this spring. A recent MRI came back clean, but he’ll go another four days before he resumes his throwing program and will need to build back up from there. By that point, he’ll be about two weeks removed from his last game action.
If that’s not enough bad news for Guards fans, Bell adds that lefty Sam Hentges is headed to have some swelling in his finger checked out. There’s no indication that’s a serious issue, but it’s yet another health situation for the team (and fans) to monitor for now.
The 28-year-old Stephan has proven to be one of the best Rule 5 selections by any team in recent memory. Taken out of the Yankees organization prior to the 2021 campaign, he’s logged 63 or more innings in each of his three seasons in Cleveland. Stephan owns six saves and 50 holds over that stretch, having climbed the ladder from low-leverage and mop-up settings to a prominent late-inning piece in each of the Guards’ past two seasons.
From 2022-23, Stephan tossed 132 1/3 innings of 3.40 ERA ball with a stout 28% strikeout rate and better-than average walk and ground-ball rates of 7.8% and 44.6%, respectively. Fielding-independent metrics like FIP (2.90) and SIERA (3.18) feel he’s been even better than his already sharp earned run average.
Stephan signed a four-year, $10MM contract extension covering the 2023-26 seasons last spring. That deal includes club options for both the 2027 and 2028 seasons as well. He’ll be paid $1.6MM this year as he rehabs throughout what would otherwise have been his first arbitration season. He’s guaranteed salaries of $2.3MM in 2025 and $3.5MM in 2026 before the team must decide between a $7.25MM club option of $1.25MM buyout for the 2027 season. If Cleveland picks that option up, they’ll have a $7.5MM option for the 2028 campaign as well. There’s no buyout on that second option.
With Stephan now ticketed for the 60-day injured list, the Guardians will lean on trade acquisition Scott Barlow as the primary setup man to All-Star closer Emmanuel Clase. Righties Eli Morgan and Nick Sandlin will also be in the mix for leverage spots, as will Hentges, assuming his finger injury doesn’t prove to be something serious. It’s possible the Guardians could look outside the organization for some additional arms to join the fray, though that’d likely come via waivers or perhaps a DFA trade late in camp. The free agent market for bullpen arms has been largely picked over, and Cleveland clearly didn’t have much money to spend this winter, making it seem unlikely that any additional salary will be added.
The news on Williams also carries immediate impact for Cleveland. While there’s no indication he’s dealing with a significant injury or facing a long-term absence, it seems he’ll miss at least a couple starts to begin the year. The 24-year-old ranked among MLB’s top pitching prospects prior to making his debut in 2023, and he lived up to that billing with 82 innings of 3.29 ERA ball during a sharp rookie campaign.
Williams’ 23.5% strikeout rate was narrowly above average, while his 10.7% walk rate is a bit inflated and could stand to improve a couple ticks. That shaky command prompted metrics like FIP (4.05) and SIERA (4.61) to take a more bearish outlook. Still, Williams throws hard, misses bats at average or better levels and limited hard contact rather nicely as well (88 mph average exit velocity, 38.6% hard-hit rate). There’s plenty to like about his outlook moving forward, and his presence alongside fellow sophomores Tanner Bibee and Logan Allen has the makings of the next wave of impressive homegrown talent from Cleveland’s unrivaled pitching development pipeline.
Espino, 23, once shined brightest among that incredible stock of young pitchers in the Cleveland system, but injuries have completely derailed his trajectory. Beyond what will now be a two-year absence from the mound due to multiple shoulder surgeries, Espino was also limited to just 18 innings in 2022. That year included a monthslong stay on the injured list due to tendinitis in his knee, as well as a second absence surrounding shoulder pain that has now clearly spiraled into an overwhelmingly problematic issue. Prior to the injury deluge, Espino dazzled scouts with a triple-digit fastball, plus or better slider and two other pitches — changeup, curveball — that projected to be at least average offerings.
On the one hand, Espino has youth on his side. On the other, consecutive missed seasons due to shoulder surgeries is a massive roadblock for any pitcher to overcome. His last procedure came with a timetable of 12 to 14 months. A similar or even lengthier timetable could push him deeper into the 2025 season. By that point, Espino will have thrown just 18 innings over a four-year period. The obvious hope is that he can put all these injuries behind him and eventually reach the majors, even if in a shorter relief role to help mitigate some workload concerns, but injury troubles of this magnitude are hard to overcome.
As for Hentges, he might not be a household name but he’s a credit to Cleveland’s pitching development himself. The 2014 fourth-rounder was hit hard as a starter in his debut campaign back in ’21 but has since emerged as one of the team’s top relievers. From 2022-23, he’s pitched 114 1/3 innings with an excellent 2.91 ERA, a very strong 27.4% strikeout rate, a better-than-average 7.9% walk rate and a sensational 60.1% grounder rate.
Gerrit Cole Meeting With Dr. Neal ElAttrache Today
March 14: Cole is meeting with Dr. ElAttrache today, tweets Bryan Hoch of MLB.com. Manager Aaron Boone expects more information on his status this evening, although that doesn’t ensure that the Yankees will publicly disclose an update tonight.
March 13: Reigning American League Cy Young Award winner Gerrit Cole will miss at least the first month or two of the season due to an elbow injury, report Jon Heyman and Mark Sanchez of the New York Post. Cole underwent an MRI earlier this week after experiencing difficulty recovering between spring starts and throwing sessions. The Yankees haven’t made a formal announcement on the injury or a timetable yet. Heyman reports that initial imaging on Cole’s right elbow has not detected a ligament tear, though there’s some inflammation and swelling still present. Cole’s MRI has been reviewed by multiple parties, including renowned surgeon Dr. Neal ElAttrache. Per the report, ElAttrache did not see a ligament tear but nonetheless suggested an in-person visit to personally examine Cole.
While it’s a sigh of relief that early imaging didn’t reveal a major tear, the fact that Cole is going for further testing remains an ominous sign. Inflammation can at times be substantial enough that it masks structural damage. Only time will tell whether that’s the case with Cole. Regardless, to call even an absence of roughly four to eight weeks for Cole a major blow for the team would only be stating the obvious. The 33-year-old righty is on the short list of baseball’s best and — until now — most durable pitchers. Furthermore, the Yankees’ rotation behind Cole is rife with question marks.
New York signed right-hander Marcus Stroman to a two-year, $37MM deal in the offseason, but Stroman’s All-Star 2023 season was cut short by second-half injuries — a hip issue and rib cartilage fractures. He was sporting an ERA in the low-2.00s for much of the season but was hit rocked in July while pitching through the hip injury and struggled down the stretch after returning from what wound up being an extended absence due to the rib troubles.
Lefties Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes were both limited to fewer than 65 innings in 2023, and neither pitched anywhere close to his 2021-22 form. Rodon’s season was particularly alarming, given that he’d pitched at Cy Young-caliber levels the prior two years and inked a six-year, $162MM deal with the Yankees just last offseason. A forearm strain and hamstring strain combined to limit Rodon to 64 1/3 innings — during which time he posted a 6.85 ERA with a 22.4% strikeout rate that was 11.5 percentage points shy of his ’21-’22 rate. Cortes, meanwhile, twice hit the IL with a strained rotator cuff in his left shoulder. His 4.97 ERA in 63 1/3 innings was more than double the 2.44 number he’d posted the year prior.
Right-hander Clarke Schmidt was the only other Yankees pitcher to make even 20 starts last year. He took the ball for a full slate of 32 games, pitching 159 innings with a 4.64 earned run average. Schmidt’s 21.5% strikeout rate was below the league average, but his 6.6% walk rate was strong and his 43.8% grounder rate, which clocked in a couple percentage points ahead of the average starting pitcher. Schmidt was too homer-prone (1.36 HR/9) but at least looked like he could give the Yankees around five competitive innings every fifth day, which could prove crucial with Cole shelved for a notable period and several injury question marks alongside him on the starting staff.
The Yankees traded away a significant amount of rotation depth when dealing Michael King, Jhony Brito and Randy Vasquez to the Padres as part of the Juan Soto trade. Remaining in-house options for the now-vacant rotation spot include young righties Clayton Beeter, Luis Gil and Yoendrys Gomez — all three of whom are on the 40-man roster. Veteran righty Luke Weaver inked a one-year, $2MM deal and was expected to serve as a swingman, but he has ample starting experience in the majors and pitched well in three September starts for the Yanks last year. Top prospects Chase Hampton and Will Warren were both invited to camp as non-roster players, but neither is on the 40-man roster.
Of course, the possibility remains that the Yankees will go outside the organization to bring in a more established arm. Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery remain unsigned, but the 110% luxury tax the team would pay on top of either player’s salary could prove exorbitant. Snell, in particular, would also cost the Yankees their second-highest draft choice in 2024 and require them to forfeit $1MM in bonus space from next year’s international amateur free agency pool. Ownership’s appetite for signing either player will now be tested. If not them, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote last night that righty Michael Lorenzen “could be an option” for the Yankees, though it’s not clear if the two parties have had any serious talks recently.
The trade market offers at least one more marquee name, and that seems to be the Yankees’ current area of focus. GM Brian Cashman and his staff have reportedly already presented the White Sox with a new offer for top starter Dylan Cease, though they’re joined by both the Rangers and Padres in their late pursuit of the 2022 AL Cy Young runner-up. The ChiSox had previously insisted that the Yankees include top outfield prospect Spencer Jones in any trade for Cease. The Yankees have balked at that ask. The new proposal to the Sox reportedly does not include Jones, though with several teams in the mix for Cease and the Yankees now staring down a potential two-month absence for Cole, it’s possible they’ll eventually acquiesce and meet Chicago’s asking price.
Tommy Edman To Open Season On Injured List
After casting doubt on Tommy Edman‘s availability for Opening Day earlier in camp, the Cardinals confirmed Thursday that their expected center fielder will open the season on the injured list. Manager Oli Marmol announced to the Cardinals beat that Edman will be shut down from hitting entirely for the next week, as it’s still causing him pain in his surgically repaired wrist (X link via Katie Woo of The Athletic). It’s still not clear whether left fielder Lars Nootbaar, who’s been slowed by a pair of fractures in his ribcage, will be cleared for Opening Day. Marmol added this morning that Nootbaar will be reevaluated Saturday (X link via John Denton of MLB.com). He’s been engaged in limited baseball activities for the past week.
Edman, 28, has primarily been a middle infielder in the past but handled himself well in 310 innings of center field work last season, drawing plus grades from metrics like Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average. Defensive versatility has been one of his calling cards since he debuted in the majors, as he’s played every position other than catcher, first base and pitcher — drawing positive defensive marks everywhere he’s been.
With top shortstop prospect Masyn Winn on the cusp of MLB readiness, the Cardinals’ plan has been to move Edman to center field. Veteran Brandon Crawford was brought in as a veteran contingency plan at short in the event that Winn struggles, further cementing Edman’s role in the outfield, where he’d be flanked by Nootbaar and slugger Jordan Walker — in the event that all three are healthy.
That won’t be the case to begin the season. Edman, who missed time in 2023 with inflammation in his right wrist, continued to play through discomfort even upon returning from the injured list in 2023 and wound up undergoing arthroscopic surgery in October. The wrist injury could well have contributed to a decline in production at the plate; Edman hit .265/.324/.400 (106 wRC+) in 630 plate appearances in 2022 and got out to an even stronger start in April 2023 before his bat cratered. He was hitting .265/.339/.480 through early May but slipped to .244/.298/.378 over his final 418 trips to the plate. Edman finished out the season about eight percent worst than league-average, by measure of wRC+, with an overall batting line of .248/.307/.399.
With Edman now ruled out for Opening Day, it could be Dylan Carlson getting the nod in center field. The switch-hitter has been the subject of trade rumors for much of the past year, but the Cardinals never found an offer to their liking and will now at least temporarily turn center field back over to the former top prospect. Other outfield options on the 40-man roster include slugger Alec Burleson and defensive-minded Michael Siani.
It’s also possible that Victor Scott II, who stole a staggering 94 bases between High-A and Double-A last year, will crack the Opening Day roster. He’s had a big showing in camp, hitting .370/.469/.444 with four steals in 32 plate appearances, but Scott has also yet to play a single game above that Double-A level at which he topped out in 2023. Scott is regarded as a plus-plus defender in center field with 80-grade speed and negligible power. If he makes the club and Nootbaar joins Edman on the injured list, the Cards could put Scott’s glove in center and slide Carlson over to left field.
There are a fair number of moving parts in the St. Louis outfield mix, which has become typical for the organization over the years as they’ve struggled to retain any kind of long-term continuity in the group. Scott’s performance and Nootbaar’s health will be key storyline for the Cardinals in the final couple weeks of camp. Scott would need to be selected to the 40-man roster if he wins a spot on the Opening Day squad.
The Opener: Spring Breakout, Marlins, Rotation Market
As Spring Training continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Spring Breakout begins:
Spring Breakout, MLB’s new prospect showcase event, begins today with a pair of exhibition games. The Rangers will take on the Reds at 5:05pm CT, while the Orioles will square off against the Pirates at 6:05pm CT. Pittsburgh is the only club to have already announced its starter for the game, as they’ll turn to the game’s best pitching prospect in right-hander Paul Skenes. He’ll face an Orioles roster stacked with offensive prospect talent, including No. 1 overall prospect Jackson Holliday, corner infielder Coby Mayo, and catcher Samuel Basallo. Pittsburgh’s offense, meanwhile, will be led by infielder Termarr Johnson, the club’s first-round pick from the 2022 draft.
Cincinnati is one of two teams to participate in multiple games for the exhibition. That leaves uncertainty as to whether or not the club’s 2023 first-round pick, right-hander Rhett Lowder, will make an appearance in this evening’s game. Meanwhile, the Rangers’ pitching corps features the likes of right-handers Brock Porter, Jack Leiter and Owen White. On offense, the Reds’ sole top-100 talent (per MLB.com) on the roster is shortstop Edwin Arroyo. The Rangers’ hitters will be headlined by young shortstop Sebastian Walcott, with both Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford remaining in big league camp to prepare for the regular season. MLB.com has each club’s full roster and details on how to watch tonight’s games at the following links: Rangers, Reds, Orioles, Pirates.
2. Marlins’ injury troubles continue:
The Marlins are already likely to be without left-hander Braxton Garrett ahead of Opening Day due to shoulder soreness, and a shoulder impingement is putting righty Edward Cabrera‘s availability in doubt as well. Now, Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald relays that right-handed youngster Eury Perez is the latest Miami starter facing questions about his readiness for the start of the season two weeks from today. Perez was removed from his start yesterday after just 14 pitches due to discomfort stemming from a broken fingernail he’s dealt with in recent weeks.
While comments from Perez and manager Skip Schumaker seem to indicate the club doesn’t believe Perez’s fingernail is a long-term concern, the 20-year-old’s ability to build up his pitch count has been limited by that minor issue. If Cabrera, Perez, and Garrett all begin the season on the shelf, it would be a tough turn of events for the Marlins as their typically strong pitching corps would be depleted, even if only for a short period of time. Lefties Jesus Luzardo, A.J. Puk, Trevor Rogers, and Ryan Weathers would all figure to be part of the club’s Opening Day rotation, with the fifth spot potentially going to non-roster veteran Yonny Chirinos or swingman Bryan Hoeing.
3. Will the Cease trade cause movement on the starting pitching market?
One of the offseason’s longest-standing storylines came to an end last night as the White Sox dealt right-hander Dylan Cease to the Padres in exchange for a prospect package headlined by right-hander Drew Thorpe, whom San Diego had acquired as part of the Juan Soto package back in December. The Padres were far from the only suitor for Cease’s services, however, as both the Yankees and Rangers had also been involved in the Cease bidding in recent days. That New York and Texas clearly remain in the market for starting pitching is notable given the fact that they’ve been the most frequently rumored potential suitors for the two remaining front-of-the-rotation arms on the market in Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, respectively. Could Cease finally finding a new home spur activity for the offseason’s two remaining top-tier free agents?
Padres Acquire Dylan Cease
The Dylan Cease saga has come to an end. The Padres announced the acquisition of the right-hander from the White Sox for four players: prospects Drew Thorpe, Jairo Iriarte and Samuel Zavala and big league reliever Steven Wilson.
Cease has been a trade candidate at least as far back as last summer’s deadline. While Chicago took him off the market at that time, first-year general manager Chris Getz made clear that he was willing to consider offers on virtually everyone on the roster going into the offseason. That made Cease one of the top names of the winter.
Chicago fielded offers early in the offseason before pulling back. The Sox indicated they wanted to wait for the free agent rotation market to play out before aggressively shopping the star righty. Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery have lingered in free agency longer than anyone anticipated. With Opening Day two weeks away, Chicago seemed to find more urgency to make a move. They’d reportedly talked with the Yankees and Rangers within the past few days, but it is San Diego that gets the deal done.
It’s a massive strike for them just a week before they’ll open the regular season with a two-game set against the Dodgers in South Korea. For much of the offseason, the Padres have gone in the opposite direction. They faced significant payroll constraints that led to the free agent departures of Josh Hader, Seth Lugo, Nick Martinez and Michael Wacha. Snell seems likely to follow.
The biggest loss, of course, came via trade. The Padres dealt Juan Soto to the Yankees before his final year of team control. That both offloaded his arbitration salary — which eventually checked in at $31MM — and brought back a number of controllable starting pitchers to compensate for the free agent departures. Michael King will step into the middle of the rotation. Jhony Brito and Randy Vásquez are candidates for a back-end role. Thorpe came over in that trade and would have been in the rotation mix as well, but he’s now headed to Chicago before throwing a regular season pitch for the Padres.
Despite targeting upper level pitching in the Soto return, San Diego had a largely unproven rotation. Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish were locked into the top two spots. King was ensured of a job after a strong finish last season with the Yankees, but he’d been a reliever for most of his major league career. He only moved to the starting staff for his final eight appearances beginning at the end of August. The rest of the starting pitching options in the organization have limited MLB experience of any kind.
Cease addresses that lack of experience. The former sixth-round pick has been a fixture of the Sox’s rotation since 2020. Aside from a brief virus-related absence in ’21, he hasn’t missed any time as a major leaguer. Cease leads the majors with 109 starts over the last four seasons.
At his best, Cease has paired that pristine durability with a top-of-the-rotation ceiling. He was dominant two seasons ago, turning in a 2.20 ERA with an excellent 30.4% strikeout rate through 184 innings. He was runner-up behind Justin Verlander in that season’s Cy Young balloting and received some down-ballot MVP consideration.
The 28-year-old didn’t replicate that ace-caliber production last season. He had a pedestrian 4.58 ERA across 177 frames. While some level of regression from a 2.20 mark always seemed likely, his earned run average more than doubling wasn’t expected. That’s partially a reflection of a dramatic swing in Cease’s batted ball fortune. Opponents hit only .260 on balls in play against him in 2022; that spiked 70 points a season ago.
Beyond the ball-in-play results, Cease was a little less overpowering in ’23 than he’d been the previous season. His swinging strike rate dipped from 15% to 13.6%. He lost three percentage points off his strikeout rate, which fell to 27.3%. The average velocity on both his fastball (95.6 MPH) and slider (86.3 MPH) dropped a tick. Those are all still better than average marks but not quite as impressive as his 2022 metrics.
As is often the case, Cease’s true talent ERA very likely falls somewhere in the middle. Going back to the start of 2020, he carries a 3.58 mark in just shy of 600 innings. That has come in a tough home ballpark for pitchers in front of generally lackluster defenses.
At the same time, Cease has never had pristine control of his high-octane stuff. He has walked more than 10% of batters faced in three of the past four seasons, including his Cy Young runner-up campaign. He issued free passes at a 10.1% clip last year. That inconsistent command has kept him from blossoming into a true ace and is part of the reason he’s “only” 16th in innings pitched over the last four seasons despite topping MLB in starts.
It’s debatable but largely immaterial where Cease slots alongside Darvish and Musgrove among San Diego’s top three starters. King moves to the #4 spot, while the Friars now have only one Opening Day rotation job up for grabs. Brito, Vásquez, knuckleballer Matt Waldron and the out-of-options Pedro Avila could each be in the mix for the role.
It’s a renewed push for contention by a San Diego front office that has never shied away from dealing for star talent. Cease becomes the defining addition of the Padre offseason, largely enabled by his affordability. He and the White Sox had agreed to an $8MM salary to avoid arbitration. He’s under control via that process through the 2025 campaign. The Padres can plug him into the rotation for the next two years for what’ll likely be between $20MM and $25MM overall.
RosterResource calculates San Diego’s 2024 player payroll around $167MM, including Cease’s salary. The trade pushes their luxury tax number around $224MM, roughly $13MM below this year’s lowest threshold. The Friars have worked to stay under the tax line after exceeding it in each of the past three seasons. They still have questions about the overall roster depth — particularly in the outfield — but they have some flexibility to continue adding either this spring or at the deadline without pushing into CBT territory.
Landing a pitcher of Cease’s caliber and affordability required parting with a few fairly well-regarded young players. San Diego was never going to trade Ethan Salas or Jackson Merrill and managed to keep young pitchers Dylan Lesko and Robby Snelling out of the deal. Thorpe, Zavala and Iriarte were all generally regarded in the next tier of Padres talents. Baseball America ranked all three between fifth and ninth in the San Diego system. The Athletic’s Keith Law had those players in the 6-9 range on his organizational prospect list.
As a key piece of the Soto return, Thorpe is probably the most well-known of the bunch. A second-round pick in 2022 out of Cal Poly San Luis Obispo, Thorpe had a breakout showing in his first full minor league season. The 6’4″ right-hander worked to a 2.52 ERA in 23 starts between High-A and Double-A last year. He fanned more than a third of opposing hitters against a modest 7.1% walk rate.
Thorpe doesn’t light up radar guns with a fastball that sits in the low-90s. Evaluators credit him with a plus or better changeup and an above-average breaking ball, though. He has shown advanced strike-throwing acumen, although Law writes that his precise command (the ability to spot pitches where he wants them) isn’t as impressive as his control (hitting the strike zone consistently). Baseball America, FanGraphs and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel all placed Thorpe in the back half of the league’s Top 100 prospects this winter. He’s a potential mid-rotation arm who could impact the Sox as soon as this year.
Iriarte, a 6’2″ righty from Venezuela, could also be part of the major league pitching staff at some point in 2024. The 22-year-old worked 90 1/3 frames across 27 appearances between High-A and Double-A last season. He allowed 3.49 earned runs per nine behind a 33.2% strikeout percentage. He also walked almost 12% of opposing hitters, but there’s clear bat-missing potential.
Evaluators credit Iriarte with upper 90s velocity with a plus slider and a promising but inconsistent changeup. The chance for three above-average to plus offerings gives him significant upside, although evaluators are split on whether he’ll stick as a starting pitcher. He’ll need to refine his secondary stuff and continue to improve his control, but his athleticism gives him the opportunity to do so. FanGraphs slotted Iriarte in the back half of their Top 100 list. The Sox can take their time to afford him plenty of reps in the upper minors.
Zavala, 19, is a further away development flier. The lefty-hitting outfielder was one of the better prospects in the 2020-21 international signing period. He spent most of last season at Low-A Lake Elsinore. Zavala’s .267/.420/.451 batting line is impressive for a player his age, but prospect evaluators are divided on his long-term upside. Law suggests he’s unlikely to stick in center field, while most reports question his pure contact skills. Zavala took plenty of walks but also struck out at an alarming 27.2% clip in Low-A.
Wilson might be the fourth piece of the return, but he should step directly into the big league bullpen. The 29-year-old righty has been a quality reliever in each of the last two seasons. Wilson owns a 3.48 ERA across 106 career innings. He has fanned just over a quarter of opposing hitters against a 10.9% walk rate. Wilson leans heavily on a low-80s breaking ball and sits in the mid-90s with his fastball.
That profile has led to better strikeout and walk numbers versus right-handed batters, but Wilson has gotten decent results against hitters of either handedness. He could step into high-leverage work in a completely open Sox bullpen. The Santa Clara product has exactly two years of service. Chicago controls him through at least 2027, depending on whether they option him to the minors at any point. He won’t be eligible for arbitration until next offseason.
The White Sox had named Cease their Opening Day starter. That’s no longer on the table as they commit even further to a retool. KBO returnee Erick Fedde is perhaps the top pitcher in what might be the weakest rotation in the American League. Michael Soroka, Chris Flexen, Michael Kopech, Garrett Crochet and Jared Shuster are among the other possibilities. Thorpe figures to open the season in Triple-A but could pitch his way into the mix before long.
Chicago could go outside the organization to try to backfill some of their lost innings. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported last night that the Sox had interest in Michael Lorenzen as a potential Cease replacement. Zack Greinke, Jake Odorizzi and old friend Johnny Cueto also remain unsigned.
Iriarte and Wilson are each on the 40-man roster. Thorpe and Zavala won’t be eligible for the Rule 5 draft until the 2025-26 offseason, although Thorpe seems likely to pitch his way onto the MLB roster well before that point. Chicago designated outfielder Peyton Burdick for assignment to open the necessary 40-man spot.
ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the Padres were finalizing a trade for Cease. Jon Heyman of the New York Post confirmed a Cease agreement was in place. Jon Morosi of MLB.com was first to report the White Sox were acquiring Thorpe and Iriarte. The Athletic’s Dennis Lin first reported Wilson’s inclusion. Bob Nightengale of USA Today was first with Zavala being in the deal.
Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Devin Williams To Miss Roughly Three Months With Back Fractures
Brewers star closer Devin Williams has been diagnosed with two stress fractures in his back, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (X link). He’ll be shut down entirely for six weeks and is expected to be out of MLB action for around three months.
It’s a massive hit to the Milwaukee bullpen two weeks before Opening Day. Williams made two appearances this spring before pausing his work as he battled back soreness. He visited a spine specialist this afternoon. That examination revealed the fractures. Fortunately, Passan indicates that Williams is expected to make a full recovery.
That the injury shouldn’t affect Williams throughout his career is a positive, but there’s no question it’s a significant loss for the first half of the upcoming season. The two-time All-Star is among the best relievers in baseball. He has turned in a sub-2.00 ERA in consecutive years, including a sparkling 1.53 mark over 58 2/3 frames last season. Williams shut down 36 games in 40 attempts in his first full campaign as a closer. He rode his patented wiffle ball changeup, the so-called Airbender, to a massive 37.7% strikeout percentage. Williams was named the National League’s Reliever of the Year for the second time in his career.
As is the case with virtually every Milwaukee player approaching free agency, Williams found himself in trade rumors during the offseason. That speculation returned after they dealt Corbin Burnes to the Orioles, but Milwaukee didn’t find a deal to their liking. They elected to keep him at the back of the bullpen instead. Williams should eventually return to the ninth inning, but he’ll now begin the season on the 60-day injured list and will be out of action at least into the middle of June.
It’s unclear if Milwaukee skipper Pat Murphy will go with a committee approach to the ninth inning or pick a defined closer while Williams is on the shelf. If they go the latter route, any of Joel Payamps, Abner Uribe or Trevor Megill could be candidates. Payamps was somewhat quietly one of the more productive relievers in the NL last season. The secondary piece acquired in the William Contreras/Sean Murphy three-team trade, Payamps turned in a 2.55 ERA with plus strikeout, walk and ground-ball numbers across 70 1/3 innings.
Uribe has more traditional closing stuff. One of the hardest throwers in the sport, he averaged a blistering 99.4 MPH on his sinker as a rookie. Uribe turned in a 1.76 ERA behind a 53% grounder percentage and a 30.7% strikeout rate over his first 30 2/3 MLB innings. It’s eye-popping stuff, but his command could keep him out of the ninth inning. Uribe walked more than 15% of opponents last season.
Megill, acquired in a minor trade with the Twins last April, struck out nearly 36% of batters faced as a Brewer. He worked to a 3.31 ERA through 32 2/3 frames. Megill averaged 99.1 MPH on his heater, which he paired with a wipeout curveball in the mid-80s. Having that trio of power arms means Murphy should still have a good relief group with which to work, yet there’s no one who can be expected to replicate the production that Williams posts on an annual basis.
Milwaukee controls Williams via arbitration through the 2025 season. He’s making $7MM this season. Milwaukee has a $10MM option for next year but could retain him in arbitration even if they opt for a $250K buyout instead of the option value. If Williams progresses as expected, he should be back on the mound before the deadline. There’s a chance he’d be a midseason trade candidate if the Brewers unexpectedly fall out of contention in the NL Central, but the offers they receive could be complicated by other teams’ trepidation about the injury.
MLBTR Podcast: Injured Pitchers, Brayan Bello’s Extension, Mookie At Shortstop And J.D. Davis
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- Injuries to pitchers such as Gerrit Cole of the Yankees and Lucas Giolito of the Red Sox and the potential ripple effects (1:45)
- Red Sox sign Brayan Bello to an extension (7:10)
- Dodgers moving Mookie Betts to shortstop (10:40)
- Giants release J.D. Davis (16:10)
- Noelvi Marté of the Reds suspended for PEDs (22:50)
Plus, we answer your questions, including…
- Who had the worst offseason and why is it the Angels? (25:15)
- Fact or Fiction? The Red Sox are going to trade Masataka Yoshida. (28:50)
- Considering the amount of effort the Tigers front office has put into fielding a major league team in the past 10 years, should Tiger fans feel slighted? “They can wait” seems to be the attitude. Should Tiger fans just stop buying Little Caesars pizza and encourage their friends to buy their pizzas elsewhere? I am sure franchise owners enjoy being associated with a cheap loser. (31:20)
Check out our past episodes!
- The Giants Sign Matt Chapman, Zack Wheeler’s Extension, And Blake Snell And Jordan Montgomery Remain – listen here
- How Cody Bellinger’s Deal Affects The Other Free Agents And Why The Offseason Played Out Like This – listen here
- Finding Fits For The “Boras Four,” Which Teams Could Still Spend? And Rob Manfred In His Last Term – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Bill Plummer Passes Away
Former major league catcher and manager Bill Plummer passed away this week, according to a report from The Associated Press. He was 76.
A Northern California native, Plummer entered the professional ranks in 1965 as an amateur signee of the Cardinals. He was plucked away by the Cubs in the Rule 5 draft three years later. Plummer made a brief big league debut with Chicago before being traded to the Reds as part of a deal for bullpen workhorse Ted Abernathy. Plummer spent eight years in Cincinnati, working behind Johnny Bench among the Big Red Machine teams of the 1970s.
The Reds won the National League pennant in 1970, ’72, ’75 and ’76. They were repeat World Series champions in the latter two of those seasons. Plummer didn’t appear in any of those series but was a respected defensive presence as the backup to one of the greatest catchers in league history. He finished his career with a 41-game stint for the Mariners in 1978. Plummer retired with a .188/.267/.279 line in a little more than 1000 plate appearances.
After collecting that pair of World Series rings as a player, Plummer moved into the coaching ranks. He managed in the Seattle farm system throughout the 1980s and was promoted to the big league staff in ’89. The Mariners hired him as their manager in 1992. Plummer led the team for one season but was dismissed after a disappointing 64-98 finish. Seattle hired Lou Piniella the following year. Plummer never got another big league managerial opportunity, but he continued coaching for various independent and minor league teams well into the 2010s.
MLBTR sends our condolences to Plummer’s family, loved ones, friends and former teammates.
White Sox Designate Peyton Burdick For Assignment
The White Sox announced they’ve designated outfielder Peyton Burdick for assignment. The move creates a spot on the 40-man roster to accommodate Steven Wilson and Jairo Iriarte, both of whom were acquired in the Dylan Cease trade.
Chicago claimed Burdick off waivers from the Orioles earlier in camp. The right-handed hitter has gone from the Marlins to Baltimore and the Sox within the last five weeks. He could find himself on the move yet again. Chicago will trade him or place him on outright waivers within the next seven days.
A third-round pick by Miami in 2019, Burdick has plus raw power but significant swing-and-miss concerns. The Wright State product has seen brief MLB action in each of the last two seasons. He combined for a .200/.281/.368 line over 46 games, striking out at a 38.1% clip. Burdick spent the bulk of last year in Triple-A. He connected on 24 homers and stole 12 bases in 492 trips to the plate, yet he went down on strikes nearly 37% of the time. Burdick finished the season with a .219/.327/.448 slash at the top minor league level.
The Sox gave him a brief look this spring. He started 1-15 before being optioned to minor league camp. He still has two minor league options remaining, so another team could stash him in Triple-A as a power-hitting depth player if they’re willing to carry him on the 40-man roster.
Offseason In Review: Cleveland Guardians
Beyond the Guardians’ search for a new manager, most of Cleveland’s offseason headlines focused on the drama surrounding the club’s broadcasting contracts, leading to an unusually quiet winter.
Major League Signings
2024 spending: $4.75MM
Total spending: $4.75MM
Trades & Claims
- Acquired RP Scott Barlow from Padres for RP Enyel De Los Santos
- Acquired OF Estevan Florial from Yankees for SP/RP Cody Morris
- Acquired minor league C Kody Huff from Rockies for SP Cal Quantrill
- Selected 1B/3B Deyvison De Los Santos from Diamondbacks in the Rule 5 Draft
Notable Minor League Signings
Notable Losses
- Quantrill, De Los Santos, Morris, Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, Kole Calhoun, Daniel Norris, Oscar Gonzalez, Cam Gallagher, Michael Kelly
The “future manager” tag was affixed to Stephen Vogt well before he ended his 10-year MLB playing career, and once he retired following the 2022 season, it didn’t take long for Vogt to land his first managerial job. The Guardians’ interview process involved such names as Craig Counsell (who surprisingly became the Cubs’ new skipper) and Carlos Mendoza (now the Mets’ manager), but they opted for Vogt, who steps into the big chair after a single year of coaching as the Mariners’ bullpen/quality control coach.
Nobody expects Vogt to be Terry Francona, obviously, and it should be noted that Francona himself had losing seasons in each of his first four years as the Phillies’ manager from 1997-2000 before beginning his much more distinguished runs in Boston and Cleveland. Those four years in Philadelphia marked Francona’s last losing seasons until an 80-82 mark with Cleveland in 2021, and then last season’s 76-86 mark.
As that record would indicate, the Guardians were a flawed team last season, largely due to a stagnant offense that finished at or near the bottom of the league in most major hitting categories. Unfortunately for Vogt, he heads into 2024 at the helm of what will largely be the same mix of everyday players, as the front office did strangely little in the way of pursuing upgrades.
President of baseball operations Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff are no strangers to small payrolls, of course, so it wasn’t as if a big spending spree was ever in the cards. But, as per RosterResource‘s projections, the Guardians are heading into 2024 with an estimated $96.5MM payroll — just a touch below their $97.75MM payroll from 2023. Rather than significantly increase or decrease spending, the Guards mostly stood pat from a financial standpoint, perhaps immobilized by the status of their TV deal with the Diamond Sports Group.
It was almost exactly a year ago that DSG filed for bankruptcy, throwing into question the broadcasting contracts held between the corporation’s Bally Sports regional sports networks and 14 Major League teams. The Guardians, Twins, Rangers, Reds, and Diamondbacks stood out within the group since DSG was paying those teams reduced rights fees for the 2023 season before a bankruptcy court ordered the restoration of those fees. For Cleveland, Minnesota, and Texas, their TV contracts for 2024 weren’t settled until just this past February, with Diamond agreeing to continue airing games for each of the three teams on one-year deals.
Reports indicated that each club would be receiving at least 85% of what it had previously earned in its contracts with DSG, so the Guards’ $55MM figure from 2023 could now be reduced to $46.75MM for the coming year. What happens beyond 2024 is anyone’s guess, as if DSG goes out of business entirely, the Guardians’ broadcasting and streaming rights could fall under the umbrella of Major League Baseball itself.
While the Guardians were far from the only team to halt spending in the wake of this still-unsettled broadcasting future, there were naturally a lot of different approaches taken amongst the many clubs who were associated with DSG. Some of the affected teams, like the Royals and Reds, still spent in free agency. The Twins turned to the trade market as their primary method of roster-building. Cleveland didn’t really do much of anything.
There is some irony to the fact that a team starved for hitting made its biggest free agent investment in Austin Hedges, whose 52 wRC+ over the last nine seasons is the lowest of any hitter in baseball. This isn’t to diminish Hedges’ status as an elite defensive catcher, and in a vacuum, it makes a lot of sense for the Guards to reunite with Hedges (who played in Cleveland from 2020-22) as a veteran backup and mentor for starting backstop Bo Naylor. But the $4MM price tag for a backup catcher who offers so little at the plate seems rather steep for a club that seemingly had very little payroll room this winter. The Guardians had also seemingly addressed the catching position at a lower cost by claiming Christian Bethancourt off waivers from the Rays in early November, but then pivoted to sign Hedges and trade Bethancourt to the Marlins on the same day.
Cleveland moved some money off the books by trading Cal Quantrill and his projected $6.6MM arbitration salary to the Rockies in November. It was widely expected that Quantrill would be moved or simply just non-tendered after a rough 2023 campaign, due to both his escalating salary and the fact that the Guardians have a number of younger arms who stand out as better rotation candidates.
Some veteran depth was added to the pitching mix in the form of a low-cost deal with Ben Lively, and the Guardians’ list of minor league signings includes a familiar and beloved Cleveland name in Carlos Carrasco. The righty is returning to Ohio after a three-year stint with the Mets that was mostly marred by injuries and under-performance, and the idea of Carrasco entering his age-37 season and chasing a revival with his old team is a fun Spring Training story to monitor.
Perhaps the biggest surprise surrounding the Guardians’ offseason is the fact that Shane Bieber is seemingly still going to be part of the roster. Since Bieber is earning $13.125MM in his final year of arbitration eligibility, it was widely expected that he would be dealt before he reaches free agency, like so many pricier Cleveland players before him. However, though such teams as the Cubs, Reds, Dodgers, Yankees, and Angels were linked to Bieber’s market at various times this winter, a deal has yet to emerge.
This isn’t to say that a trade could still be arranged between now and Opening Day, since any number of things (like, say, an injury for the Yankees’ ace) could change the equation. Still, Bieber’s market to date has been complicated by other pitchers available either via trade or free agency, as well as the more obvious red flags stemming from the former Cy Young winner’s 2023 season. Bieber was more good than front-of-the-rotation great last year, and he also missed a large chunk of time recovering from elbow inflammation. If the offers weren’t to Antonetti’s liking, a deadline deal might be more plausible, if Bieber re-establishes his value with a strong first half.
For now, Bieber remains the most experienced member of a rotation that includes Triston McKenzie looking to bounce back from an injury-plagued season, and the impressive sophomore trio of Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, and Logan Allen. Any of Carrasco, Lively, non-roster invitees Jaime Barria or Tyler Beede could be in the depth mix, as could in-house options like Xzavion Curry, Hunter Gaddis, Joey Cantillo, or any other arms from Cleveland’s nonstop pipeline of young pitching.
The Guardians will also be running back mostly the same bullpen, except with the notable addition of Scott Barlow. The former Royals reliever was acquired from the Padres in a swap of right-handers for Enyel De Los Santos, and this trade ended up as one of Cleveland’s most financially aggressive move of the offseason. Barlow and the team avoided arbitration on a $6.7MM deal, giving him the third-highest salary of any Guards player for 2024 (after Jose Ramirez and Bieber).
In a recent piece for MLBTR Front Office subscribers, Steve Adams described the Barlow trade as “a bizarre allocation of minimal resources….In De Los Santos, the Guardians traded a reliever with better bottom-line results (albeit in lower-leverage spots), comparable K-BB rates, about 17% the salary and three times as much club control as Barlow.” I tend to agree with Steve’s analysis, though I’ll add that the deal makes a little more sense if viewed as a possible harbinger to an Emmanuel Clase trade. The Guards were reportedly open to offers for their closer this winter, so it could be that the team wanted to have a pitcher like Barlow with past closing experience in the fold before deciding whether or not to move Clase elsewhere. Of course, that deal never came together, and Clase is widely expected to open the season back in his familiar closing role.
Sticking with pitching, the Guardians felt Cody Morris was expendable enough to be dealt to the Yankees for an intriguing flier on a post-hype prospect. Estevan Florial has only a .609 OPS over 134 Major League plate appearances, though those at-bats were spread out in sporadic fashion over the last four seasons. New York never felt compelled to give Florial a longer look at the big league level, despite some past top-100 prospect pedigree, multiple injuries in the Yankees’ outfield, and Florial’s big numbers at Triple-A in 2022-23.
Needless to say, the Guardians could badly use an offensive boost in their outfield. If Florial can have even a modest breakout to prove he belongs in the Show, he could immediately supplant either Myles Straw or Ramon Laureano for regular work on the grass. As it stands, Florial’s left-handed bat makes him a natural platoon partner with Straw or Laureano, and Straw’s combination of superb defense and lackluster hitting makes him a better fit for fourth outfielder duty anyway. Florial essentially replaces Oscar Gonzalez, who went from being the starting right fielder as a rookie in 2022 to being put on waivers (and claimed by the Yankees) this winter.
Corner infielder Deyvison De Los Santos could get a look as a bench piece due to his Rule 5 status, and the Guardians will otherwise determine their backup mix from a collection of in-house names. The loser of the Brayan Rocchio/Gabriel Arias shortstop competition could start the season in the minors to amass more regular playing time, Tyler Freeman might stick in a super-utility role, and any of Will Brennan, Jhonkensy Noel, or Johnathan Rodriguez could be considered for backup outfield roles.
It can’t be ignored that Tommy Pham, Adam Duvall, Robbie Grossman, or even an old friend like Kole Calhoun could beef up this outfield picture, but even modestly-priced signings seem to be beyond Cleveland’s price range. In terms of longer-term outfield promise, top prospect Chase DeLauter is making noise in Spring Training and could be part of the big league roster at some point in 2024, if probably not too early in the season.
Likewise with the DH position, the Guardians seem unwilling to splurge on a big bat like J.D. Martinez, as the position looks to be ticketed for rookie Kyle Manzardo. Acquired from the Rays last season in the Aaron Civale trade, Manzardo is a top-100 prospect with loads of hitting potential, even if he brings little in the way of speed or first base defense. Manzardo will pair with Josh Naylor in the first base/DH mix, and if Manzardo can show that he can play even passable defense, it might increase the chances of Naylor being dealt. Naylor is a free agent after the 2025 season and drew some trade buzz this offseason as teams were checking on when or if the Guardians might move another increasingly expensive player.
It’s hard to ever rule out the Guardians given their ability to generate pitching, and between the young hitting talent on the rise, Ramirez’s superstar production, and some of the other interesting bats on hand, the lineup could also be better than it looks on paper. In an AL Central division that lacks a powerhouse contender, this mix might be enough to get the Guards back into contention if a few things break right. (And hey, maybe their surprise win in the draft lottery is a sign that Lady Luck is on their side.) Even accounting for the apparent payroll freeze, however, Cleveland’s lack of major tinkering was curious, and might be viewed in hindsight as a missed opportunity depending on how 2024 plays out.
How would you grade the Guardians' offseason?
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D 39% (705)
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F 31% (561)
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C 25% (455)
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B 3% (63)
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A 2% (28)
Total votes: 1,812