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Latest On Padres’ Managerial Situation

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The possibility of a managerial change in San Diego rose back to the forefront yesterday, as the Padres granted permission for the Giants to speak with Bob Melvin. The three-time Manager of the Year, who’s familiar with both the Bay Area and San Francisco president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi from his long stint with the A’s, now seems a strong candidate to leave San Diego for a division rival.

Melvin is under contract with the Padres for next season. As a result, the Friars could require compensation to approve him taking the job elsewhere. Dennis Lin of the Athletic writes that the Padres may not demand more than a marginal return to allow the veteran skipper to depart, however.

That’s a reflection of the apparently strained relationship between Melvin and baseball operations leader A.J. Preller. Multiple late-season reports indicated there was a strong divide between the two. San Diego ownership clearly doesn’t believe the situation had become untenable. After a meeting between Preller, Melvin and chairman Peter Seidler, the organization announced a few weeks ago that Melvin would return. However, the Giants’ interest could afford San Diego a fresh start while clearing Melvin’s $4MM salary. Had he been fired, the Padres would’ve remained on the hook for the money.

If Melvin heads to San Francisco, the Padres have a few internal candidates to take his place. Bench coach Ryan Flaherty and senior advisor Mike Shildt seem the likeliest options. In a piece at The Athletic, Britt Ghiroli and Lin write that the 37-year-old Flaherty is highly regarded within the organization and seemingly has a strong relationship with Preller. As a result, they suggest the former Orioles infielder appears the top internal option.

By contrast, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune casts Shildt as the in-house potential favorite. The 55-year-old has prior MLB managerial experience, having led the Cardinals from midway through 2018 until he was dismissed after the ’21 season due to what St. Louis called “philosophical differences” with the front office. (Flaherty’s only managerial experience consisted of a two-week interim stint in 2022 while Melvin was recovering from surgery.) Shildt has spent the last two years working with Preller’s front office and has been open about his hope for another managerial position.

Both The Athletic and the Union-Tribune suggest San Diego could also consider external opportunities. It’s too soon to say with certainty that Melvin is even departing, much less the position will come down to Flaherty or Shildt. Given the Giants’ stated goal of finalizing their hire before the start of free agency, there figures to be a resolution within the relatively near future.

Brewers Select Chris Roller

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The Brewers selected outfielder Chris Roller onto the 40-man roster, tweets Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel.  That’ll keep him from hitting free agency shortly after the World Series.

Roller, 27, cracks a 40-man roster for the first time in his career. A 5’11” outfielder, he entered the professional ranks as a 30th-round pick of the Dodgers out of a Waco junior college in 2017. Roller spent four years in the L.A. system before being selected by Cleveland during the minor league phase of the 2020 Rule 5 draft.

The right-handed hitter remained in the Cleveland organization for the next two and a half seasons. He spent most of 2021-22 in Double-A and was bumped to Triple-A Columbus for this year. Roller hit .222/.373/.412 in 92 games there. Milwaukee acquired him in a cash transaction on August 31. He finished the season on a tear with Triple-A Nashville, raking at a .364/.493/.618 clip in 16 contests.

Between the two organizations, Roller hit .247/.394/.449 in 396 trips to the plate. He struck out at an alarming 27.5% rate but walked in a massive 17.2% of his plate appearances. Roller plays all three outfield positions and has spent the bulk of his time in center field.

That production intrigued the Milwaukee front office enough to give him a roster spot heading into the winter. As a player who has spent parts of seven minor league seasons, he’d have qualified for minor league free agency to begin the offseason if he wasn’t on a 40-man roster. If he holds the spot all offseason, he’ll join Blake Perkins as depth outfielders behind Christian Yelich, Garrett Mitchell, Sal Frelick, Joey Wiemer and Tyrone Taylor. Milwaukee also has an $11.5MM option on Mark Canha that comes with a $2MM buyout. Roller would still likely begin next season in Triple-A, as he has a full slate of three minor league option seasons.

Bryan Abreu To Serve Two-Game Suspension In 2024

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Major League Baseball announced the ruling of the appellate hearing for Astros reliever Bryan Abreu. While the two-game suspension for hitting Adolis García with a pitch has been upheld, the right-hander is allowed to postpone the ban until the start of the 2024 regular season.

Former big leaguer Adam Jones first reported that Abreu’s suspension would be delayed on Foul Territory this afternoon. Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 reports that the right-hander’s fine was also reduced (X link).

Abreu hit García with a 99 MPH fastball in the bottom of the eighth inning of Game 5. García had hit a go-ahead, three-run homer in his previous at-bat. After being plunked, the Rangers slugger confronted Houston catcher Martín Maldonado, leading both dugouts to empty. Abreu was ejected for what the umpiring crew (and subsequently MLB) determined was an intentional hit-by-pitch. García was thrown out of the game for arguing with Maldonado, while Houston skipper Dusty Baker was also tossed after he vehemently argued Abreu’s ejection. Houston came back to win the game on Jose Altuve’s homer in the ninth.

The pitcher was the only player suspended for the incident. Abreu’s appeal allowed him to pitch last night. Baker called upon him for one inning in an eventual 9-2 loss. Since he only tossed 20 pitches, he’ll be available for tonight’s Game 7. Abreu pitched to a 1.75 ERA in 72 regular season innings. He has tossed 7 1/3 frames of two-run ball this October.

Guardians Interested In Stephen Vogt For Managerial Vacancy

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The Guardians are looking for a new manager, with Terry Francona recently stepping aside. Jeff Passan of ESPN reports that Stephen Vogt is “emerging as a serious candidate” for the job. Paul Hoynes of Cleveland.com adds that Vogt will be interviewed for the gig.

Vogt, 39 next week, played in the big leagues from 2012 to 2022, primarily as a catcher. He announced just over a year ago that he was retiring as a player and speculation almost immediately turned to his destiny as a future manager, as Vogt himself voiced such aspirations back in 2020. Bob Melvin, who managed Vogt in Oakland for many years, said that Vogt “definitely has a future in managing” at the time of Vogt’s retirement.

In January of 2023, just a few months after retiring as a player, Vogt quickly landed his first coaching gig. The Mariners hired him to be quality control coach and bullpen coach, but he’s now getting interest for managerial gigs after just one season as a coach and barely a year removed from his playing career.

It was reported last week that Vogt was going to interview with the Giants for their managerial vacancy. But reporting from yesterday seems to suggest that Melvin, who spoke so highly of Vogt, has now become the favorite for that gig. Though that decision is not final, it seems Vogt might get a shot at a managing gig even if he’s blocked by Melvin in San Francisco, with today’s news suggesting he’s got a legitimate shot at the job in Cleveland.

The rumors around the managing job for the Guardians suggest they may be looking to pivot to a first-time manager this time around. Francona had plenty of experience before getting the job, having previously managed with the Phillies and Red Sox, and was the skipper in Cleveland for 11 seasons. But their publicly-known candidates to replace him would all be first-timers. That includes external candidates like Dodgers first base coach Clayton McCullough, Rangers associate manager Will Venable, Yankees bench coach Carlos Mendoza and Giants bullpen/catching coach Craig Albernaz, as well as internal candidates such as minor league field coordinator John McDonald, hitting coach Chris Valaika, and player development director Rob Cerfolio.

Submit Your Questions For This Week’s MLB Trade Rumors Podcast!

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On the MLB Trade Rumors podcast, we’ll frequently answer questions from our readers and listeners.  With the next episode set for Wednesday, we’re looking for MLBTR’s audience to submit their questions and we’ll pick a few to answer.

Whether it’s a question about the postseason, discussing a past transaction, or a forward-looking question to the offseason trade and free agent markets — we’d love to hear from you!  You can send your questions to mlbtrpod@gmail.com.

Also, if you want to hear your voice on the podcast, send us your question in audio form and we might play it.  iPhone users can find instructions on how to do so here.

In the meantime, don’t forget to subscribe to the podcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

Big Hype Prospects: Eder, Herz, Rincones, Montgomery, Schwartz

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After another week of action, a spate of strikeouts has cost Jakob Marsee his spot atop the hitter leaderboards. James Triantos has slipped in above him. Top pitcher status is harder to judge. Braden Nett, Davis Daniel, Ricky Tiedemann, and Jackson Jobe all have a case.
Let’s see who else merits a look.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Jake Eder, 25, SP, CWS
(A/AA) 56.2 IP, 11.1 K/9, 5.7 BB/9, 6.99 ERA

A southpaw pitching prospect who was once as blue chip as they come, Eder hasn’t recovered well from Tommy John surgery. While his elbow is healthy, he’s lost velocity, movement, and command since his prospect peak. The White Sox dealt Jake Burger for Eder at the trade deadline and likely wish they could ctrl-z that decision. Following the swap, Eder coughed up an 11.42 ERA in five starts for the Sox Double-A affiliate.

On a positive note, Eder has a 3.24 ERA in 8.1 AFL innings – good for ninth-best in the league. He’s coughed up a pair of home runs to go with eight walks and 10 strikeouts. The book isn’t closed on Eder, but he needs to take an active role in writing the next chapter. The current chapter is titled TINSTAAPP.

DJ Herz, 22, SP/RP, WSH
(AA) 94.1 IP, 12.7 K/9, 5.4 BB/9, 4.01 ERA

Another southpaw traded at the deadline, Herz is widely seen as a future reliever due to a below-average fastball and breaking ball. His command is also poor. Where he stands out is his changeup. It’s a carrying pitch that should yield a Major League future. Herz continues to work as a starter in the AFL where he’s posted 18 strikeouts in 11 innings. Alas, his command woes (six walks) continue to limit his ability to pitch deep into outings. We await to see if his stuff plays up out of the bullpen.

Gabriel Rincones Jr., 22, OF, PHI
(A/A+) 533 PA, 15 HR, 32 SB, .248/.351/.427

A third-rounder in the 2022 draft, Rincones Jr. is best known for high-caliber exit velocities. He’s expected to wind up at first base due to suspect corner outfield defense and poor speed. Despite a lack of wheels, Rincones has shown aptitude on the bases – a trait that can sometimes portend a gamer’s mentality. His bat should carry him to the Majors without any major adjustments. At the very highest levels, he might prove too susceptible to breaking stuff. With players of this profile, breaking ball recognition is usually the difference between a big leaguer and a Quad-A guy. Rincones is among the top 10 AFL hitters with a .327/.462/.577 triple-slash.

Benny Montgomery, 21, OF, COL
(A+) 497 PA, 10 HR, 18 SB, .251/.336/.370

A former eighth-overall pick, Montgomery has seen his prospect status rapidly erode since draft day. Speed remains his best trait, though he also demonstrates above-average power. His contact is held back by funky mechanics. Most organizations – the Rockies among them – aren’t adept at developing players with a non-standard approach. They’re often left to sink or swim on their own. Encouragingly, Montgomery has cut down on his swinging strike rate at every level. He needs to continue that growth while doing something about the extreme 62.6 percent ground ball rate he posted this season. He also needs to improve his outfield defense where his double-plus speed helps him to recover from poor jumps and routes. He’s slashing .373/.468/.510 in the AFL, albeit with 17 strikeouts in 60 plate appearances.

JT Schwartz, 23, 1B, NYM
(AA) 277 PA, 4 HR, 4 SB, .302/.383/.437

Schwartz doesn’t have much of a shot with the Mets. He’s likely in the AFL to showcase him in front of other teams. He has the look of a future big leaguer – the sort who helps rebuilding teams trudge through another season. While Schwartz has the physical size to hit for power, his current approach is built around batting average and OBP. He’d draw more attention in the pre-Moneyball era. In 45 plate appearances, he has six doubles and two home runs along with a 1.011 OPS.

Three More

Liam Hicks, TEX (24): Hicks has low-key paced the league on the hitting side including a six-hit day. Despite the heady results, he’s not particularly impactful with the bat. His catching is of the third-string variety – he’s struggled to control the running game throughout his entire career. Other aspects of his defense draw critiques. Without an obvious position, Hicks looks like a ‘tweener whose plus discipline and contact rate could hide his shortcomings.

Kyle Manzardo, CLE (23): Manzardo, who we’ve already discussed ad nauseam in past episodes, leads the league with five home runs and 11 extra base hits. The power adjustment he showed upon joining the Guardians remains in evidence.

Oliver Dunn, PHI (26): A Rule 5-eligible second baseman, Dunn is making a case for consideration. He popped 21 home runs with 16 steals this summer while showing plus plate discipline. He’s strikeout-prone, but the power breakout renders that more forgivable. In 46 AFL plate appearances, he’s swiped nine bases to go with a 1.076 OPS, three doubles, three triples, and a dinger.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Twins Outright Jordan Luplow

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The Twins announced to reporters, including Dan Hayes of The Athletic, that outfielder Jordan Luplow elected free agency after being outrighted off the 40-man roster. Outfielder Andrew Stevenson and right-hander José De León, who were outrighted last week, also elected free agency. The removal of Luplow opens up another spot on Minnesota’s 40-man roster in advance of the offseason.

Luplow, 30, has bounced around the league quite a bit in his career, with teams often trying to deploy him as a lefty-mashing right-handed role player. He has shown enough flashes of promise in this role that he has been employed in Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Tampa and Arizona in previous seasons. His best stretch was with Cleveland in 2019 when he hit .276/.372/.551 in 261 plate appearances for a wRC+ of 141, most of that damage being done against southpaws.

He was cut by the Diamondbacks at the end of 2022 and then signed with Atlanta on a one-year deal with a $1.4MM guarantee. But he was optioned to the minors to start the year and was designated for assignment in early April, never suiting up for Atlanta at the big league level. Waivers claims would take him to the Blue Jays and Twins as the season progressed and he eventually got into 39 games in the most recent season. He hit a paltry .154/.267/.154 against righties but his .235/.350/.412 line with the platoon advantage amounted to a wRC+ of 110.

Despite that solid work in his specific role, Luplow didn’t crack the club’s playoff roster. He could have been retained for 2024 via arbitration, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a salary of $1.6MM, but it seems the Twins weren’t willing to keep him around at that price point. Since Luplow was outrighted, that means he passed through waivers unclaimed.

Players with more than three years of service time or a previous career outright can reject a further outright assignment in favor of free agency. Luplow qualifies on both accounts and will now head to the open market. He will likely garner interest from clubs this winter, likely for a similar depth role to the one he filled this year.

Details On The Mets’ Interest In Yoshinobu Yamamoto

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Right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto is expected to be posted by the Orix Buffaloes of Nippon Professional Baseball in the coming months, which will make him one of the top free agents available to major league clubs this winter. The Mets are one of many clubs that have reported interest in him and Will Sammon of The Athletic provides some details of their upcoming courtship.

The Mets already made one big signing of a pitcher making the move from Japan, inking Kodai Senga to a five-year deal less than a year ago. That deal is looking good for the club right now, with Senga being one of the few bright spots during a tough 2023 season. He made 29 starts and threw 166 1/3 innings, finishing the year with an earned run average of 2.98.

Yamamoto is expected to be an even more appealing investment than Senga, due to a couple of factors. Senga had an ERA of 2.59 in his NPB career before coming to North America, whereas Yamamoto has a mark of 1.82. Senga dropped his ERA to 1.94 in his final NPB season but Yamamoto’s has landed at 1.21. Furthermore, Senga made the move for his age-30 season whereas Yamamoto just turned 25.

Sammon makes reference to a piece by his colleague Ken Rosenthal, who reported in April that some people in the league think that Japanese players don’t like being on the same team as other Japanese players. This seems like an absurd assertion given that NPB teams are composed primarily of Japanese players and Japanese clubs have also performed extremely well in international play, with their World Baseball Classic triumph earlier this year giving them a third title out of the five times the tournament has been held. Regardless of the merits of that line of thinking, Sammon reports that it wouldn’t apply here, with Yamamoto having no reservations about wearing the same uniform as Senga. Furthermore, Senga has openly told Mets’ management that he wants Yamamoto on the team. Sammon also reports that Yamamoto wants to play in a large market, which should work in the Mets’ favor.

Sammon goes on to address the departure of Billy Eppler, who was with the Yankees when they signed Masahiro Tanaka and with the Angels when they signed Shohei Ohtani. This may have helped him and the Mets in getting Senga aboard, but Eppler recently stepped down as general manager, with president of baseball operations David Stearns now the primary baseball decision maker. Whether the transition from Eppler to Stearns has any impact on the pursuit of Yamamoto isn’t really known.

Beyond those factors, the financials will undoubtedly be significant. Given Yamamoto’s youth and talent, it’s expected by many that he could get himself a lengthy contract with a guarantee in the range of $200MM. That gives an edge to the higher-spending clubs, a group that certainly includes the Mets, with owner Steve Cohen allowing the 2023 club to have the highest payroll in baseball history.

One thing that arguably undercuts the connection to the Mets is that the club is giving hints they won’t be as aggressive this offseason. If the team is planning a sort of reset year after the disappointing 2023 campaign, giving the new president time to assess the organization and build the farm system, then landing one of the top free agents would seem to be a bit incongruous.

But the club does need starting pitching, having dealt away Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer at the deadline. Carlos Carrasco is also about to hit free agency, leaving the club with a rotation of Senga, José Quintana and a few question marks beyond that. Quintana only has one year left on his deal, creating further uncertainty down the line. The position player prospects in the Mets’ system are also generally regarded higher than their pitching prospects. Since Yamamoto is so young, it’s possible the Mets could view this as a rare opportunity to add a pitcher with many prime years remaining, which would push them to make an earnest pursuit and improve their long-term pitching outlook even if the overall offseason plan is going to be less aggressive than it was a year ago.

The Mets making a legitimate run at Yamamoto seems plausible but they figure to have plenty of competition, as he’s already been publicly connected to the Phillies, Giants, Cardinals, Cubs, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Rangers, Tigers, Yankees, and Red Sox.

The Opener: NLCS Game 6, ALCS Game 7, Managers

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Here are three things worth monitoring in baseball today, with a chance for the World Series matchup to be locked in by day’s end. It will be the last day of the year with more than one MLB game, so enjoy!

1. NLCS Game 6:

After the Phillies took Game 5 in Arizona, they have a chance to end the series tonight, with Game 6 starting at 4:07pm Central. Doing so would punch their ticket to the World Series for a second straight year. Of course, the Diamondbacks will be looking to take this game and live to fight another day. Aaron Nola will take the ball for the Phils and will be hoping to extend his outstanding postseason run, having thrown 18 2/3 innings over three starts with an ERA of 0.96. As an impending free agent, it feels like he’s earning himself millions of future dollars each time he climbs the hill this month. Merrill Kelly starts for the Snakes, having registered an ERA of 3.00 in his two playoff outings this year.

2. ALCS Game 7:

After a deflating loss in Game 5, the Rangers bounced back with an emphatic victory in Game 6, pushing the series to a seventh game. Strangely, this will be the first winner-take-all game of this year’s postseason, since every Wild Card series was a two-game sweep and none of the Division Series went to five games. Max Scherzer will be starting for the Rangers, making his second appearance after returning from injury. The first one didn’t go so well, as he allowed five earned runs in four innings, but he’ll obviously be hoping for better results tonight. If he and the club are successful, the Rangers will head to the World Series for the first time since 2011. The Astros counter with Cristian Javier, who has an ERA of 1.69 in his two starts this postseason, continuing his trend of clicking in the spotlight. In 43 1/3 playoff innings in his career, his ERA is just 2.08. If the Astros take it tonight, they will return to the World Series for a third straight year and their fifth appearance in the past seven Fall Classics.

As of right now, it’s unknown if Bryan Abreu will be available for the Astros after he received a two-game suspension for Game 5’s fireworks. Abreu appealed that suspension, allowing him to pitch in Game 6 last night, but that appeal will be heard today. Game time is 7:03 pm Central.

3. Managerial musical chairs:

There was a surprising twist out of California yesterday, with the Padres giving manager Bob Melvin permission to speak with their division rivals in San Francisco about their open managerial position. The Giants are one of four clubs with an empty skipper’s chair, along with the Guardians, Mets and Angels, but it seems the Padres might be replacing them on that list. The Brewers could be added as well, with Craig Counsell’s contract set to expire at the end of October, which is just over a week away now.

Padres Permit Bob Melvin To Interview For Giants’ Managerial Position

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Padres manager Bob Melvin has been given permission by the team to interview with the Giants about their managerial vacancy, according to The Athletic’s Dennis Lin and Andrew Baggarly.  “Melvin has emerged as the favorite in San Francisco, with league sources indicating that he received assurances he would be a top candidate before he agreed to participate in the interview process,” Lin and Baggarly write.

Reports surfaced two days ago that the Giants were temporarily halting their search for a new manager while waiting to hear back from rival teams for their go-ahead to interview employees.  Melvin was chief among this new group of candidates, and it could very well be that the Giants were specifically waiting on the Padres on whether or not Melvin would be allowed to speak with the division rival.  Melvin is still under contract with San Diego through the end of the 2024 season, though rumors have swirled for months about Melvin’s future with the club and his relationship with president of baseball operations A.J. Preller.

By this point, it would seem like an upset if Melvin doesn’t end up as San Francisco’s next manager.  While the official interview has yet to take place, Melvin and Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi are quite familiar with each other — Melvin was the Athletics’ manager when Zaidi began his baseball career in Oakland’s front office over a decade ago.  Lin and Baggarly note that it could create an even more awkward situation between Melvin and Preller if Melvin didn’t end up getting the Giants job, so perhaps regardless of what happens with the San Francisco interview, Melvin might not be back as the Padres’ skipper in 2024.

Back in September, Lin and Ken Rosenthal delved into the internal issues that have plagued the Padres organization even before their disappointing 2023 season.  Chief among these problems is the allegedly frosty relationship between Melvin and Preller, though both men have downplayed the idea of any discord.  After the Padres finished with only an 82-80 record this season, there was plenty of speculation that either Melvin or both Melvin and Preller could be fired, yet club chairman Peter Seidler gave a full vote of confidence to his management team at season’s end.  Preller also stated soon afterward that “Bob is our manager, and he’s going to be our manager going forward,” seemingly putting the matter to rest.

However, many pundits felt a parting was coming sooner rather than the later, especially when the Giants’ managerial position became open after Gabe Kapler was fired.  The past ties between Melvin and Zaidi made the veteran skipper a logical candidate from day one, assuming the hurdle of the Padres’ clearance for an interview could be jumped.

It is possible the Padres and Giants might work out a trade to officially send Melvin to the Bay Area, or the Padres might simply see this as an opportunity for a fresh start.  Melvin leaving for another job rather than being fired, as Baggarly and Lin note, would save the Padres the $4MM owed to the manager in salary for the 2024 season.  This tracks with the Padres’ overall plan to cut costs next season, ranging from both internal financial matters like a manager’s salary to player payroll.

If Melvin was to be hired by the Giants, San Diego would suddenly be in need of a new manager, though Lin and Baggarly cite bench coach Ryan Flaherty and coach Mike Shildt as possible candidates to take over the job.  Best known for his days as an Orioles utilityman, Flaherty has been on the Padres’ coaching staff for the last four seasons, and was promoted to bench coach prior to the 2023 campaign.  Prior to hiring Melvin, Preller’s previous two managerial hires were Andy Green and Jayce Tingler, who (like Flaherty) had never managed at the MLB level.

On the other hand, Shildt is a former skipper, managing the Cardinals from 2018-2021 and leading the club to postseason appearances in the last three of those seasons.  Shildt was rather surprisingly fired after the 2021 season due to what Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak described as “philosophical differences,” and the Padres then interviewed Shildt for the managerial vacancy that was eventually filled by Melvin.  San Diego ended up hiring Shildt anyway that winter for a player development position, and he moved into a coaching role this past season.

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