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A’s Notes: Front Office, Stadium, Lacob

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The A’s have been frequently compared to the Rays in recent years, as both clubs typically run payrolls at or near the bottom of the league, struggle with attendance issues, and have been the focus of relocation rumors in recent years due in part to dilapidated stadiums. One area where the two teams couldn’t be further apart, according to John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle, is their respective analytics departments.

While the Rays run a low player payroll relative to the league’s norms, they’re among the highest spenders when it comes to investing in their analytics department. As noted by Shea, the club had 44 full-time employees in the department during 2023, the most in all of baseball. Meanwhile, Oakland has largely neglected to invest in their analytics department, with their eight-person staff being the smallest in the majors last year.

Shea notes that the club plans to add to the department this offseason with four new full-time hires increasing the total staff to 11 after accounting for the impending departure of advanced scouting analyst Leo Pollack, who Shea relays will not return to the club in 2024. The 11-person staff would still leave them tied with the Rockies and Marlins for the smallest analytics department in the majors. It’s also unclear if the A’s will have any members of the analytics department travel with the team next year, as Shea notes Pollack was the only member of the department who did so in 2023.

Oakland is coming off a brutal 50-112 season that saw it post the second-most losses in franchise history, outpaced only by the 117-loss Philadelphia Athletics back in 1916. The club’s second consecutive 100-loss campaign comes on the heels of a protracted tear-down that saw the club trade away a core of Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Sean Murphy, Frankie Montas, Chris Bassitt and Sean Manaea that led the club to four consecutive winning seasons from 2018-2021 and playoff appearances in 2018, 2019, and 2020. Those trades have largely yet to bear fruit, though players like catcher Shea Langeliers and outfielder Esteury Ruiz have shown some level of promise at the big league level.

Shea notes that GM David Forst would “love” to have a more robust analytics staff, though payroll constraints have limited the department’s ability to expand much as they left Forst unable to retain Oakland’s core of successful players as the team cut payroll from $92MM in 2019 to just $47MM come 2022 and $56MM this year. It’s certainly fair for A’s fans to wonder if the club could have fared better in 2022 and 2023 if a larger analytics staff had been employed as the club searched for potential trade targets over the past two offseasons.

More rumors from around Oakland and the A’s…

  • Per a recent report from Mick Akers of the Las Vegas Review-Journal, the Las Vegas Stadium Authority’s board of directors will meet with Athletics brass this week to discuss the team’s planned ballpark. Akers adds that the meeting, which is scheduled for Wednesday, will see presentations on community engagement, benefits, and the lease agreement from both the A’s and the project’s construction manager. Though relocation has yet to be put to an official vote among MLB owners, the scheduled vote next month is expected to be little more than a formality, leaving completing agreements with the stadium authority as a primary focus for the club as they continue to pursue relocation. A 30-year non-relocation agreement, financial commitments to the community, terms of the lease, and stadium naming rights are among the topics that Akers notes are expected to be discussed during Wednesday’s meeting.
  • As the A’s continue moving ahead with their relocation effort, a report from Shea earlier this month indicates that Joe Lacob, owner of the NBA’s Golden State Warriors, remains interested in pursuing ownership of an MLB club in the bay area even as the A’s prepare to move out. Lacob spoke about the matter at a recent news conference, telling reporters (including Shea) that he’s been “very interested” in acquiring the A’s in the past, and that “if, for whatever reason, (A’s owner John Fisher) decided it wasn’t going to work, sure, we might be interested” in acquiring the A’s and keeping them in Oakland. Lacob also left the door open to a potential bid for ownership of a different MLB team, adding that he “might” be interested if an ownership opportunity presented itself, whether or the A’s or another team.

MLBTR Poll: Andrew Heaney’s Opt-Out

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The 2022-23 offseason saw several mid-tier free agents sign similar two-year contracts, each of which featured an opt-out after the 2023 campaign. Josh Bell and Michael Conforto’s deals with the Guardians and Giants are two examples on the position player side of things, but the majority of these deals were offered to starting pitchers, such as Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling in San Francisco. Left-hander Drew Smyly and right-hander Seth Lugo also signed similar deals with the Cubs and Padres, respectively, that allowed them to return to the open market this offseason if they so chose.

Many of those option decisions are fairly clear-cut, but one decision stands out as particularly intriguing: that of Rangers lefty Andrew Heaney, who can opt-out of the final year of his contract to test the open market again. Heaney signed in Texas last offseason on the heels of a brilliant season with the Dodgers where he was limited to just 72 2/3 innings by injury. When on the field, however, Heaney was nothing short of excellent with a 3.10 ERA, 35.5% strikeout rate, and 3.75 FIP in 16 appearances, including 14 starts.

While Heaney managed to stay healthy in 2023, his results took a turn for the worse. His strikeout rate plummeted to 23.6% while his walk rate climbed from 6.1% last year to 9.4% this season. Those slips in Heaney’s peripheral numbers saw him post a 4.15 ERA that was just above league average (95 ERA-) with a 4.66 FIP that was a touch worse than league average (106 FIP-). That being said, Heaney made 34 appearances in 2023 with 28 starts, a noteworthy display of durability for a player who had cracked 130 innings of work in a season just once in his career entering 2023.

Though Heaney managed to post the second-highest innings total of his career this year, his 147 1/3 innings pitched this season fell just shy of the 150 inning threshold at which point his 2024 salary would have escalated from $13MM to $20MM. Had Heaney reached the 150-inning threshold to escalate his option, opting in would have been an easy choice after he guaranteed himself just $25MM last offseason despite strong results with the Dodgers.

That base $13MM figure, however, presents a more interesting conundrum. Looking at last year’s free agent class, 35 starting pitchers signed big league deals in free agency last offseason. Among them, 21 signed for $13MM or more, including players coming off similarly league average seasons like Manaea, Lugo, Jordan Lyles and Noah Syndergaard. Like Lugo, Heaney would be entering free agency ahead of his age-33 season, while Syndergaard entered the open market with a similarly checkered injury history. Syndergaard received a one-year, $13MM deal from the Dodgers last offseason, while Lugo’s two-year pact guaranteed him $15MM.

Ultimately, it seems very reasonable to expect Heaney to be able to exceed his 2024 salary with the Rangers on the open market in terms of total guarantee on a multi-year pact, though it seems somewhat unlikely that he’d be able to garner that much in terms of AAV without accepting another short-term deal like the one he signed last offseason. If Heaney simply opts in, he could return to the Rangers and hope for another healthy season with stronger results in 2024, setting him up for a much more substantial payday next offseason. On the other hand, if Heaney’s health fails him again as it has in seasons’ past, he could find a much less robust market for his services next offseason as he could potentially be marketing his age-34 campaign coming off another injury-marred season.

Where do MLBTR readers land on the matter? If you were in Heaney’s shoes, would you opt in to the final year of the deal in Texas in hopes of a stronger platform season next year? Or would you return to the open market in search of a larger total guarantee? Have your say in the poll below.

(poll link for app users)

Should Andrew Heaney Opt Out Of His Contract This Offseason?
No, remain with the Rangers in hopes of a stronger platform season in 2024. 62.46% (2,146 votes)
Yes, forgo the $13MM salary in search of a higher guarantee. 37.54% (1,290 votes)
Total Votes: 3,436

AL Notes: Twins, Glasnow, Cora

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While the Twins are facing an uncertain payroll situation headed into the offseason, Bobby Nightengale of the Star Tribune indicates that won’t stop the club from picking up options on second baseman Jorge Polanco and outfielder Max Kepler, noting both options are “expected” to be picked up around the league. That being said, Nightengale also notes that both players figure to be in the center of trade discussions this winter if Minnesota looks to utilize their position player depth to acquire more pitching.

That’s a familiar situation to Kepler in particular, who found his name in the rumor mill both last offseason and again at the trade deadline. After posting below-average offensive numbers in both 2021 and 2022, Kepler bounced back in a big way this season with a .260/.332/.484 slash line in 130 games, adding a plus bat to his reputation as a strong defender in the outfield. A free agent after the 2024 campaign if his option is picked up, Kepler would be an attractive one-year addition for outfield-needy teams that the Twins could afford to part with due to the presence of young outfielders like Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach.

Polanco, on the other hand, has team options for both 2024 and 2025 that make him a more significant player to part with. The switch-hitting infielder has been a model of consistency when on the field the past few years, with a wRC+ between 118 and 124 in every full season since 2019. That being said, he’s been plagued by injuries the past two seasons, appearing in just 80 contests for the Twins in 2023 and 104 in 2022.

MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald recently took a poll of MLBTR readers regarding whether or not the club should deal Polanco, with 56% of respondents voting that he should be dealt. Effective as Polanco has been, that sentiment in understandable given the club’s cluttered infield mix that features Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa, Edouard Julien and up-and-coming prospects like Brooks Lee and Austin Martin. Nightengale adds that the Twins could use Polanco in a super utility, multi-positional role next season if he’s retained for 2024. While Polanco profiles best as a second baseman, he played 15 games at third base this year and spent time at shortstop early in his career as well.

More from around the American League…

  • Ever since right-hander Tyler Glasnow signed an extension with the Rays that guaranteed him a $25MM payday in 2024, speculation has percolated throughout the baseball world that Tampa would look to move him before the final year of that contract. With RosterResource projecting the Rays for a franchise-record payroll of $130MM next year, moving Glasnow would be a viable strategy for the club if they look to get closer to their 2022 level of $79MM. That said, it’s worth noting that the Rays have indicated they’re open to increasing payroll next year and the club’s biggest area of need is the starting rotation. That need would get bigger without Glasnow, who pitched to a 3.53 ERA and 2.91 FIP across 21 starts this season. For his part, Glasnow wants to stay with the Rays in 2024 and beyond. As relayed by Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, Glasnow spoke glowingly of the organization and its culture while noting the $150MM offer the club made to Freddie Freeman during the 2021-22 offseason as evidence that the club could retain him beyond 2024, if they so chose.
  • While Red Sox manager Alex Cora took himself out of the running for the club’s opening atop the baseball operations department early in the club’s search for their next GM, at the time it was believed that Cora would play a significant role in the hiring process as Boston looked to replace ousted chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom. This morning, however, MassLive.com’s Sean McAdam notes that Cora’s role in the process may not be as substantial as previously believed. McAdam reports that a source has indicated that Cora has had very little involvement in the process to this point, though McAdam does note that the Red Sox’s intentions of involving Cora were focused on ensuring a good working relationship between the manager and his new boss. Given those goals, it’s certainly possible Cora could have greater impact on the process once the team has narrowed the field of candidates down further.

Pete Ladd Passes Away

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Former big leaguer Pete Ladd has passed away following a battle with cancer, per an announcement by the Brewers. The Portland, Maine resident was 67 years old.

“We learned today of the passing of Pete Ladd, a key member of the great Brewers teams of the early 1980s,” a statement from the club read, “Pete was a man with a big personality and an even bigger heart. Our thoughts and condolences go to his family.”

A 25th-round pick in the 1977 draft, Ladd was selected by the Red Sox as a relief pitcher and worked through the minors in that role for two seasons before making his big league with the Astros in 1979. Though his initial cup of coffee lasted just 12 1/3 innings of work, Ladd impressed in his limited time with a 2.92 ERA that was 25% better than league average at the time. Ladd wouldn’t appear again in the majors until the 1982 season, when he pitched in 16 regular season games for the Brewers, with a 4.00 ERA in 18 innings of work.

Ladd was tapped to serve as Milwaukee’s closer during the 1982 season due to an injury sustained by Hall of Fame relief arm Rollie Fingers. The right-hander was excellent while filling in for Fingers, pitching 3 1/3 scoreless innings against the Angels during the ALCS and striking out five en route to the Brewers’ first and to this point only World Series appearance in franchise history. Ladd also recorded two outs in the World Series against the Cardinals, working around a hit and two walks to avoid giving up a run during the appearance.

Following the club’s World Series run in 1982, Ladd would remain with the Brewers for three more seasons. That included the 1983 campaign, which turned out to be the best of Ladd’s career. He posted a 2.55 ERA, 48% better than league average for the day by measure of ERA+, and a 2.92 FIP in 49 1/3 innings (44 appearances) while striking out 21.1% of batters faced, though Milwaukee unfortunately missed the postseason that year after winning 87 games and finishing fifth in the AL East.

Ladd, then 29, would wrap up his big league career in Seattle after departing the Brewers following the 1985 season. He pitched well for the Mariners in 1986, with a better-than-average 3.82 ERA in 70 2/3 innings of work across 52 appearances. While he continued his playing career with the Dodgers in 1987, he struggled at the Triple-A level and didn’t crack the club’s big league roster, leading him to retirement following the 1987 season. In all, Ladd appeared in 205 games during his six-year MLB career, recording 17 wins, 39 saves, and 209 strikeouts in 287 innings of work with a career ERA of 4.14.

We at MLB Trade Rumors extend our condolences to Ladd’s family, friends, fans and former teammates.

Trade Candidate: Harold Ramirez

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As is frequently the case for the Rays this time of year, the club has a sizable class of arbitration-eligible players to sort through this offseason: with 16 players eligible for arbitration this winter, only the Yankees have more. MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects that group of players to cost a combined $46.3MM in 2024 if all 16 of them are retained. That could prove to be an untenable situation for the Rays, as RosterResource estimates the club’s projected 2024 payroll to be $130MM, an increase of more than $50MM over this year’s $79MM budget.

While the club has recently indicated that it would be open to increasing payroll next season, it’s unclear to what level an increase would be. Even a substantial increase in payroll could leave the club looking to shave $20MM or more off of its payroll, to say nothing of any potential external additions the club could look into making as they aim to build on a 99-win season in 2024. Given these realities, it seems likely that the Rays will at least shop around some of the players from their deep pool of arbitration-level talent this offseason.

Of Tampa’s group of arbitration talent, just four players are projected to make more than $3MM next year: infielder Isaac Paredes, who is still just 24 years old and enjoyed a breakout season in 2023; right-hander Aaron Civale, the steady mid-rotation arm the club dealt top first base prospect Kyle Manzardo to acquire this past summer; outfielder Randy Arozarena, a face of the franchise and former Rookie of the Year who made his first All Star appearance in 2023; and Harold Ramirez, a right-handed slugger the club acquired in a minor deal with the Cubs prior to the 2022 season who splits time between DH, first base, and the outfield corners.

Among that group of four, it seems wildly unlikely that the club would deal Civale after winning the bidding for his services just three months ago. Given his youth, positional versatility, and strong 2023 campaign, it seems more likely that the club would rather retain Paredes as a member of the club’s core rather than trade him away just as he enters his prime years.

While Arozarena may be the most expensive of the group by far with a $9MM projected salary in 2024, the 28-year-old outfielder is under team control through the end of the 2026 season and provides consistency to the Rays lineup. He’s made at least 600 trips to the plate, with a wRC+ of 120 or better, 20 home runs or more, and 20 stolen bases or more in each of the past three seasons. That consistency, power and speed makes Arozarena a key piece for the Rays going forward, to say nothing of his status as one of the most recognizable players on the team.

That leaves Ramirez, who has contributed to the Rays in a big way over the past two seasons. In 869 trips to the plate with the club over the past two seasons, Ramirez has slashed an impressive .306/.348/.432 with a 17.4% strikeout rate, good for a wRC+ of 123. Good as that production is, it’s worth noting Ramirez carries a hefty platoon split; while he was roughly league average against right-handers with a .281/.329/.420 slash line in 310 trips to the plate against them this year, he absolutely crushed lefties to the tune of a .387/.411/.555 slash line in 124 trips to the plate. His career splits are roughly similar, with a .719 OPS against righties and an .816 OPS against southpaws.

Valuable as a lefty-mashing corner bat can be, the Rays are fortunate to be well-stocked in terms of DH and corner options. Yandy Diaz has locked down the first base spot with star-level production the past two seasons, while slugger Luke Raley made a strong impression during his first run of significant playing time this year, slashing .249/.333/.490 with 19 home runs in just 406 trips to the plate while covering first base, DH, and all three outfield spots. This also doesn’t consider young infield prospect Jonathan Aranda, who slashed .230/.340/.368 in 103 plate appearances with the big league club this year and could play his way into a bigger role next season.

Additionally, each of those options has more team control remaining than Ramirez. While the 29-year-old will be a free agent following the 2025 season, Diaz is under control through 2026, Raley through 2028, while Aranda has yet to accrue a full season of service time in the big leagues. Given the club’s bountiful options at the position and Ramirez’s relative lack of team control, he could be the perfect trade candidate for a Rays team interested in lowering payroll to make other additions or even simply in leveraging a valuable asset from a clear area of depth.

In terms of potential suitors, there are several teams that could conceivably be interested in Ramirez’s services. The Brewers and Cubs both have uncertain first base situations headed into 2024, with Rowdy Tellez looking like a potential non-tender candidate and Matt Mervis having struggled through his first cup of coffee in the majors earlier this year. The Cubs, of course, are the club the Rays acquired Ramirez from prior to his breakout in the spring of 2022.

Meanwhile, the Padres could look to add a right-handed complement to Matt Carpenter at DH, with Ramirez as a strong option to fill the role the club hoped Nelson Cruz could fill in 2023. The Diamondbacks and Braves could also find themselves in search of a bat like Ramirez this offseason, in the event Tommy Pham and Eddie Rosario depart the club this offseason. In truth, there’s few aspiring contenders that couldn’t make use of a lefty-mashing corner bat with two seasons of team control remaining, giving the Rays plenty of potential paths in the event they do pursue a trade of the 29-year-old.

NL Notes: Marlins, Giants, Cardinals

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The Marlins are parting ways with director of amateur scouting D.J. Svihlik, per Barry Jackson and Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald. Svihlik, who had been part of Miami’s front office since 2017 including six years in his current role as scouting director, did not have his contract removed following the 2023 campaign and is now set to join former GM Kim Ng in departing the organization. The move to part ways with Svihlik is hardly a surprise given Sherman’s previously reported discontent with the club’s amateur scouting and player development apparatus.

While very few of Svihlik’s draft picks have played a direct role for the Marlins at the big league level (with right-hander Max Meyer and catcher Nick Fortes among the best examples), Jackson and McPherson make the important point that many of the club’s highest picks in recent years have been used in trades to acquire key talents on the big league roster such as Jake Burger, Josh Bell, and A.J. Puk. The duo go on to note that the task of finding a replacement for Svihlik figures to be likely left in the hands of the club’s next baseball operations leader, the search for whom Sherman has already begun. Installing a president of baseball operations who would take control of the department and lead a restructuring of the club’s amateur scouting department was one of the key goals Sherman held for this offseason that led to Ng parting ways with the organization.

More from around the National League…

  • As the Giants continue their search for a manager to replace Gabe Kapler, one potential candidate has withdrawn himself from consideration, per The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly: Rangers special assistant Nick Hundley. Baggarly added that Hundley spoke at length with longtime Giants catcher Buster Posey and president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi regarding the position, but ultimately declined to interview for the role on account of family concerns. Hundley, 40, spent 12 seasons in the major leagues as a catcher, including the 2017 and 2018 campaigns in San Francisco. Upon retiring in early 2020, Hundley took a job in the commissioner’s office before eventually joining the Rangers in his current role of special assistant prior to the 2022 campaign.
  • Cardinals left-hander JoJo Romero is in a good place following his season-ending knee injury last month, per Daniel Guerrero of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Guerrero notes that Romero made progress regarding the injury throughout the month, but did not return to the big league roster in hopes of ensuring the injury was fully healed and his mechanics wouldn’t be impacted headed into the offseason. Romero was a revelation for St. Louis in the second half as he took over the closer’s role from Jordan Hicks, posting a 3.18 ERA, 35.8% strikeout rate and a 0.79 FIP in his final 17 innings of the season. His overall season numbers were also impressive, as well: the lefty posted a 3.68 ERA and 2.22 FIP across 27 appearances this season. Assuming he’s healthy in time for Spring Training, Romero figures to once again play a significant role for the Cardinals out of the bullpen next year.

Two Starters Who Buoyed The Blue Jays In 2023

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The 2023 season was something of a disappointment in Toronto, as the club once again was swept out of the AL Wild Card series after a third place finish in the AL East. As the club spent 2023 treading water, several key players such as star first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (whose struggles MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk discussed last month), catcher Alejandro Kirk, and veteran outfielder George Springer all took significant steps back this year. Meanwhile, the pitching side of the roster faced its own challenges. Right-hander Ross Stripling departed via free agency last offseason for San Francisco and while veteran right-hander Chris Bassitt was a capable replacement this year, 2022 AL Cy Young finalist Alek Manoah was not replaced so easily. Manoah, 25, posted a disastrous 2023 season that saw him sport a 5.87 ERA and 6.02 FIP across 19 starts.

With all the shortcomings of the 2023 squad in Toronto, it might seem somewhat surprising that the club managed to post essentially the same season as they did last year. Fortunately, the Blue Jays managed to turn their starting rotation into a considerable strength this year, even as their best arm from last season was pulled from the starting five due to ineffectiveness. While a solid, 11-start return from veteran lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu and a typically excellent campaign from ace righty Kevin Gausman both were major assets, the steps forward taken by right-hander Jose Berrios and left-hander Yusei Kikuchi did the most to return Toronto to contention in 2023, and provide reason for optimism when looking ahead to 2024.

Both pitchers had their first full seasons in Toronto in 2022: Berrios was acquired at the 2021 trade deadline, while the club signed Kikuchi to a three-year deal in free agency ahead of the 2022 campaign. That season was a difficult one for both players, as each posted an ERA north of 5.00 and the worst full-season fWAR totals of their careers. With Kikuchi under contract for another two seasons and Berrios signed on through 2028, both signings were looking nothing short of disastrous for the Blue Jays after their first year.

Fortunately, however, both pitchers were able to turn things around in 2023, allowing Toronto to absorb the loss of Manoah’s elite production much more easily. Berrios saw his 5.23 ERA in 172 innings last year drop to a much more palatable 3.65 figure in 189 1/3 frames. While he was 26% worse than league average last year by measure of ERA+, he managed to post a season that was actually 16% better than league average by that same metric this season. Kikuchi, meanwhile, saw nearly as drastic an improvement as his similar 5.19 ERA (74 ERA+) improved to a far more respectable 3.86 (110 ERA+) figure. What’s more, after making 12 of his 32 appearances out of the bullpen in 2022, Kikuchi made 32 starts in 2023, allowing his innings total to skyrocket from 100 2/3 to 167 2/3.

As good as those seasons were, of course, they weren’t enough to get the Jays over the hump in 2023. Looking ahead to 2024, the question for GM Ross Atkins and the rest of the front office is a simple one: Just how sustainable were the improvements for their mid-rotation arms? Fortunately for the fans in Toronto, the improvement both players found in 2023 is largely backed up by more advanced metrics.

After striking out just 19.8% of batters faced in 2022, Berrios improved that figure to 23.5% this year while maintaining a low 6.6% walk rate. Both of those numbers are slightly better than his career averages of 23.2% and 7.1%, respectively, which helps lend credence to the idea that Berrios’s return to form could be sustainable. Berrios saw improvements in other areas, too, as his BABIP dropped from .328 in 2022 to just .289 in 2023, while his strand rate rose from 70.9% to 76.4%.

BABIP and strand rate are both typically regarded as fluky year-to-year stats, giving them little value when predicting future performance in such small sample sizes. In this case, however, they back up that Berrios’s 2022 campaign during which he led the league in both earned runs and hits allowed may have simply been an outlier: Berrios’s 2023 BABIP is almost identical to his career .290 mark entering the 2022 campaign. What’s more, advanced metrics such as SIERA indicate that not only were Berrios’s 2022 and 2023 seasons similar to each other in terms of underlying performance, but they were similar to his body of work throughout his entire career. Berrios posting a 4.13 SIERA in 2022 and a 4.08 SIERA this season. While the 2023 figure is a few points better, both are in the same ballpark as his 4.04 SIERA in seven seasons since becoming a major league regular.

While Berrios’s 2023 campaign indicates that 2022 was merely an aberration in what has otherwise been a consistent career as a mid-rotation arm, Kikuchi’s season this year seems to indicate a significant step forward. Among 140 pitchers with at least 100 innings of work in the majors during 2022, Kikuchi’s 5.62 FIP ranked in the bottom three, only better than Jonathan Heasley and Josiah Gray. While Kikuchi struck out an impressive 27.3% of batters faced, he walked a whopping 12.8% of batters faced. What’s worse, those free baserunners Kikuchi offered opposing teams often found themselves scoring on home runs thanks to Kikuchi’s fly balls leaving the year for home runs at an astronomical 23.7% rate that was by far the highest in the majors.

Fortunately, Kikuchi’s command and control issues improved considerably this year, even as his strikeout rate ticked down slightly to 25.9%. He nearly halved his walk rate in 2023, cutting his free passes down to a 6.9% rate that was actually in the 73rd percentile among all qualified pitchers, per Statcast. Kikuchi also managed to make improvements regarding the long ball, though they weren’t as drastic as his cut down on walks. After putting up the league’s worst barrel rate of 14.8% in 2022, Kikuchi managed to cut that figure to 9% this season, good for the 29th percentile among all qualified major leaguers.

While that’s still below average, Kikuchi’s more reasonable 15.3% home run rate allowed him to post a career year in 2023; this year was the first time the 32-year-old managed to post an above average season by both ERA- (8% better than league average) and FIP- (4% better than league average). SIERA, meanwhile, was actually even more bullish on Kikuchi than Berrios this year, as the lefty posted a 3.86 figure that put him in the same range as quality arms like Logan Gilbert and Sonny Gray while outperforming the likes of Corbin Burnes and Blake Snell.

With Berrios once again looking like the quality mid-rotation arm he appeared to be throughout his career in Minnesota and Kikuchi having joined him at a similar status in 2023, the Blue Jays look to be extremely well set up headed into 2024 with a front four of Gausman, Berrios, Kikuchi, and Bassitt in the starting rotation. That should allow them to be aggressive in looking to revamp the club’s offense as they attempt to return to the postseason in 2024 and win their first playoff game since 2016.

AL Notes: Abreu, DiPuglia, McKinstry

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A bad back might’ve saved Jose Abreu’s season, as the first baseman’s debut season in Houston didn’t start to turn around until a two-week stint on the injured list in August.  Abreu was batting only .234/.291/.343 in 464 plate appearances prior to the IL trip, yet as Astros hitting coach Alex Cinton told ESPN’s Buster Olney, Abreu “was a different guy” after returning to action.  Abreu improved to .248/.315/.530 with eight home runs over 130 PA in the rest of the regular season, and he has a .962 OPS and four homers over 39 PA during Houston’s postseason run.

Beyond just letting his back heal, the IL trip also seemed to serve as a mental reset for Abreu after the grind of his first four-plus months.  After signing a three-year, $58.5MM contract with Houston last winter, Abreu was perhaps too eager to contribute to his new team.  Olney writes that “Cintron began to view Abreu’s relentless diligence as a problem.  As Abreu relentlessly took batting practice, his coaches believed, he was sapping his energy day after day — and likely prolonging his slump.”  Fortunately for all parties, Abreu has found his form at the ideal time for an Astros team that is one victory away from a return trip the World Series.

More from around the American League….

  • Former Nationals assistant GM Johnny DiPuglia is interviewing with the Rays about a front office job, according to reporter Francys Romero (via X).  DiPuglia had been working as Washington’s international scouting director since 2009 and assistant GM since 2020 before he resigned from the organization in September, reportedly due to the Nationals’ desire to reduce his salary.  It isn’t surprising that the Rays (and presumably other teams) have interest in hiring DiPuglia, who has over 30 years of experience of scouting and front office experience, and a rich history of success in finding and developing Latin American talent.
  • Zach McKinstry is planning “to live in the weight room” this offseason to improve his core strength, the Tigers utilityman tells Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press.  This represents a departure from last winter, when McKinstry was rehabbing from a torn groin suffered in August 2022, though he played through the injury without going on the IL.  The interruption to his usual offseason routine may have been a reason behind McKinstry’s underwhelming .231/.302/.351 slash line over 518 PA last season, not to mention the increased workload as a whole.  McKinstry had played in only 121 MLB games and received 364 PA from 2020-22 as a member of the Dodgers and Cubs before taking on a regular role with Detroit in a variety of different positions.  Petzold notes that McKinstry is out of minor league options, so there’s less of a margin for error as the uilityman will try to retain his spot as a multi-positional option.  “I’ll try to get my rotational strength a little bit stronger.  Hopefully, it can last me a little bit longer throughout the whole season, not just one month, two months or three months,” McKinstry said.

Poll: What Team Will Craig Counsell Manage In 2024?

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With four teams looking for new managers at the moment, the Brewers are hoping they won’t be the fifth, as team owner Mark Attanasio has made clear his preference that Craig Counsell remains in the dugout.  The logic is obvious — Counsell has a 707-625 record in his nine seasons as Milwaukee’s manager, leading the Brewers to playoff appearances in five of the last six seasons.  Widely regarded as one of baseball’s better skippers, Counsell has been a key ingredient in the Brewers’ success, and thus a very intriguing candidate for other teams looking for a new leader.

Counsell’s contract is officially up on October 31, and though Attanasio approached the manager about a new deal earlier this year, Counsell’s preference was to wait until the season was over to delve into contract negotiations.  With another NL Central title on his resume, Counsell is in a pretty nice negotiating position to command a big raise from the Brewers, and continue both his run as manager and his longstanding ties to the organization.  In addition to his stint as manager, Counsell also grew up in Wisconsin, his father worked for the Brewers’ community relations division, and Counsell played six of  his 16 MLB seasons as a player in a Brewers uniform.

As per recent reports from Jon Heyman of the New York Post, “Counsell will stay if he’s paid what he believes is fair,” according to a source linked to the Brewers.  That said, it isn’t yet clear how far along (if at all) the two sides are in negotiations, even with the October 31 deadline getting closer.  It could be that Counsell is waiting until November to officially hit the open market and gauge his worth with some other offers….and one high-spending team in particular looms as a natural candidate for Counsell’s services.

Rumors swirled for years that the Mets were targeting David Stearns as the next president of their baseball operations department, and the pursuit finally ended in September when New York hired Stearns as the new PBO.  With Stearns seen as likely to eventually join the Mets, there was lots of speculation that Counsell might be looking to join his former Brewers boss in Queens, and that speculation only intensified when Stearns fired Buck Showalter in one of his first acts in charge of the front office.

There hasn’t been a ton of public buzz about the Mets’ managerial search, apart from the fact that the team is looking to hire a skipper from outside the organization.  Blue Jays first base coach Mark Budzinski and Rangers associate manager Will Venable have both been linked to the position, though Venable took him out of the running by declining an interview opportunity.  The relative lack of news about the Mets’ search could indicate that they’re waiting to get a chance to speak with Counsell, or it could simply mean that the team is keeping its cards close to the vest.  It is also possible that Stearns might be a little preoccupied with other business given the unexpected resignation of GM Billy Eppler, though the managerial search was expected to take priority over the efforts to find a new general manager (who would act as Stearns’ chief lieutenant).

If not Milwaukee or New York, we can’t rule out the other teams with managerial openings as possible landing spots for Counsell.  Hiring Counsell would give the Guardians an appropriately big name to help fill the void left by Terry Francona, and the Guards have a Brewers-esque approach in trying to perpetually contend despite a limited payroll.  The Giants have a lot more spending capacity and seem to be looking for something of a culture change, so hiring Counsell could certainly provide such a spark to the organization.  The Angels could be going through something of a transition phase if Shohei Ohtani leaves, though there’s obvious appeal in managing Ohtani (if he re-signs) and Mike Trout, and Counsell could welcome the challenge of ending the Halos’ playoff drought.  Beyond these teams, we might also consider other teams who could be more open to a managerial change if Counsell enters the market, with the Padres perhaps still a club to watch in this regard.

With all of this in mind, where do you think Counsell will be managing next season?

(poll link for app users)

What Team Will Craig Counsell Manage In 2024?
Brewers 45.84% (5,185 votes)
Mets 39.49% (4,466 votes)
Other 14.67% (1,659 votes)
Total Votes: 11,310

Which Draft Picks Each Team Would Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent

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Since we just looked at what teams would stand to receive in draft compensation if they lost a free agent who rejected a qualifying offer, now it’s time to explore what each team would have to give up in order to sign a QO-rejecting free agent.

To recap the mechanics: if a free agent has played the entire 2023 season with a team and he has never received a qualifying offer in the past, he is eligible to be issued a QO within five days of the end of the World Series.  The qualifying offer is a one-year deal worth the average of the salaries of the top 125 highest-paid players in the majors, and this winter, the QO is reportedly worth around $20.5MM.  An eligible free agent can simply accept the QO and thus avoid free agency entirely, but if he rejects the QO, his former team is now in line to receive some draft-pick compensation if the free agent signs elsewhere.  This only relates to qualified free agents from other teams, as a club can re-sign its own qualified free agents with no penalty.

Here is the (mostly set) rundown of what every team will receive should one of their qualified free agents indeed head to another club…

Revenue Sharing Recipients: Diamondbacks, Rockies, Reds, Brewers, Pirates, Marlins, Athletics, Mariners, Tigers, Royals, Twins, Guardians, Orioles, Rays

Should one of these clubs sign a qualified free agent, they will have to give up their third-highest selection in the 2024 draft.  Since most of these smaller-market teams are part of the Competitive Balance bonus rounds of the draft, their third-highest pick likely won’t mean their third-round pick, and the situation could be further complicated if any of the teams trade from their CBR picks (the Competitive Balance selections are the only draft picks eligible to be traded).

The Mariners, Orioles, Rays, and Reds stand out as at least somewhat realistic candidates to sign a QO-rejecting free agent this winter.  Seattle is expected to make some level of pursuit of the biggest free agent of all in Shohei Ohtani, while the Orioles and Reds might feel the time is right to augment their young core with a bigger name, likely a pitcher.  Tampa Bay might be willing to stretch its usual payroll standards a bit this winter, though it remains to be seen if the Rays would splurge on a major free agent.

Teams Who Don’t Receive Revenue-Sharing Funds, And Who Didn’t Pay The Competitive Balance Tax: Giants, Cardinals, Cubs, Nationals, Astros, White Sox, Red Sox

For signing a qualified free agent, these teams would have to surrender their second-highest pick of the 2023 draft, and also $500K from their bonus pool during the next international signing period.

Many of these clubs could be prominent players in free agency, perhaps further emboldened by their relatively lesser draft penalty.  St. Louis is aiming to acquire at least three starting pitchers, the Giants are hoping to finally land a big name after their failed pursuits of Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa last winter, the Cubs could be looking to make a big splash to replace Cody Bellinger (if Bellinger can’t be re-signed at all), and the Red Sox might be looking to return to contention in a big way once their new front office leader is hired.

The Team In Limbo: Angels

As noted in the last post, it won’t be known until December (when the luxury tax numbers are officially calculated by the league) whether or not the Angels have exceeded the $233MM CBT threshold.  While this most specifically relates to the compensation Los Angeles may receive if Ohtani signs elsewhere, it also impacts what the Halos would have to give up if they wanted to add another qualified free agent.

If the Angels ducked under the CBT line, they’ll be in the previous group.  But, if the league’s calculations determine that the Angels were in excess of the tax threshold, they’ll be included with the other…

Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Dodgers, Padres, Mets, Phillies, Braves, Rangers, Blue Jays, Yankees

As one would expect, these teams face the stiffest penalties.  For signing a QO-rejecting free agent, these clubs would have to give up $1MM in international bonus pool money, as well as two draft picks — their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2024 draft.

Ohtani’s name looms large in this category, as several of these clubs might not proceed with major offseason business until they know one way or the other if they can land the two-way superstar.  Conversely, a team that isn’t willing to give out the record-setting contract it will likely take to land Ohtani could instead more aggressively pursue some relatively less expensive qualified free agents, looking to land a player while some other suitors are occupied.  Of course, the higher penalty could also mean that some tax-payor teams instead look for upgrades on the trade market, or at some free agents (i.e. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jordan Montgomery, Jeimer Candelario, Eduardo Rodriguez) who aren’t eligible for the qualifying offer.

Should a club sign more than one qualified free agent, they will have to additionally forfeit their next-highest draft pick.  For signing two QO-rejecting free agents, the revenue-sharing group would have to give up their third- and fourth-highest picks in the 2024 draft.  The teams who didn’t exceed the CBT or receive revenue-sharing funds would have to give up their second- and third-highest picks, as well as $500K more of their international bonus pool.  The luxury tax payors would face the heftier penalty of losing four draft picks — their second, third, fifth, and sixth-highest selections.

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