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Which Teams Are Slated To Pay The Luxury Tax In 2023?

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The highest number of teams to pay the competitive balance tax in a single season is six, which occurred in 2016 and 2022. It’s possible that 2023 could be a record-breaking season in that regard, as Roster Resource currently has six teams already over the $233MM base threshold, while the Dodgers are a rounding error away from the line and another handful of teams not too far off.

These numbers are still unofficial, especially considering the arbitration salaries are mostly still estimates. Teams can also change their status by making trades throughout the year, either adding or subtracting from their ledger, but consider this a rough snapshot of where things currently stand.

Top Tier – CBT Above $293MM

The Mets are not just beyond the top CBT tier, they’re on another planet. Owner Steve Cohen has shown that he doesn’t care too much about what it costs to put a competitive team together, with their payroll currently projected for $376MM and a CBT figure of $390MM. They are currently slated to pay over $116MM in taxes alone, which is more than the total 2023 payroll of 11 teams.

CBT Between $273MM and $293MM

The Yankees are alone in this tier, but are just barely under the top threshold. Roster Resource currently has their CBT figure at $291.8MM, giving them very little room for further additions without going over. If they stay above the $273MM line, both the Yankees and Mets will see their top pick in the 2024 draft moved back by 10 spots. Both the Mets and Dodgers were more than $40MM above the base threshold in 2022, meaning their top draft picks will be moved back in the upcoming draft.

CBT Between $253MM and $273MM

The Padres are the only club in this section, with their CBT number currently pegged at $267MM.  Since they paid the tax in 2021 and 2022, they are set to be third-time payors in 2023. That means they are currently slated for a 62% tax on spending over the $253MM line and will continue to do so for any further additions. Jumping over the $273MM line would lead to a huge spike to a 95% rate, as well as their top 2024 draft pick being pushed back 10 slots.

CBT Between $233MM and $253MM

The Phillies, Braves and Blue Jays are currently in this group, with the Phils ahead of the other two at $251MM. The Phillies also paid the tax in 2022, setting them up to be a second-time payor. That means they are currently set to be taxed at a 30% rate, with that rate jumping to 42% for spending that goes over the $253MM line.

Both the Braves and Blue Jays would be paying the tax for the first time in their respective histories, putting them each in line for a 20% tax rate on spending over the line. The Jays are only a hair over right now, with Roster Resource calculating their number at $233.2MM, with Atlanta at $240MM.

Just Under The $233MM Threshold

The Dodgers are currently calculated for a CBT figure of $232.9MM, just barely under the lowest line. It’s been rumored they would like to limbo under the line in order to reset their status, since that would allow them to go into 2024 as a “first-time” payor. Doing so will be a challenge at this point unless they move something off their books.

A few other teams are within range of the Dodgers and could have to start thinking about the tax line if they make another significant signing or trade. The Rangers and Angels are each at $220MM, the Cubs at $214MM, the Red Sox $212MM, Astros at $209MM, Giants at $208MM and White Sox at $205MM.

Free Agent Profile: Adam Duvall

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Thanks to a busy month of December, most of the top free agents from this offseason are off the board, assuming the Carlos Correa deal with the Mets eventually gets over the finish line. From MLBTR’s list of the top 50 free agents, only three remain unattached: Jurickson Profar, Andrew Chafin and Michael Wacha. That means that teams still looking for upgrades will have to sift through the remainders, looking for talent that other clubs have overlooked.

One interesting candidate who deserves a look is Adam Duvall, who hasn’t been written about on MLBTR since August. If any teams have interest in him, it hasn’t been leaked to the public yet. It’s not especially shocking that his market has been quiet to this point. His 2022 was cut short in July when he required season-ending wrist surgery. He also limped to a .213/.276/.401 line in the first few months of the season while striking out in 32.1% of his plate appearances. That production was 13% below league average, as indicated by his 87 wRC+.

That’s certainly not an ideal platform for a trip into free agency, but there are still things to like about Duvall. The plate discipline issue has always been there, as he has a career 6.7% walk rate and has never finished a season above 8.7%. He’s struck out in 28.5% of his career trips to the plate and has been at 25.8% or above in each season of his career. For reference, this year’s league averages were an 8.2% walk rate and 22.4% strikeout rate. However, he’s always paired that with tremendous power, topping 30 home runs in a season three times. He also hit 16 in the shortened 2020 season and 12 this year prior to being shut down.

He’s also considered to be a strong defensive outfielder. He’s tallied 58 Defensive Runs Saved on the grass in his career, 28 Outs Above Average and has a 22.7 from Ultimate Zone Rating. His DRS and UZR slipped to below average in 2022, but OAA still was quite bullish, placing him in the 88th percentile in the league. His arm strength placed in the 78th percentile, his outfielder jump in the 74th and his sprint speed 67th.

If 2022 showed Duvall’s profile at its worst, 2021 showed how valuable it can be. He struck out in 31.4% of his plate appearances and walked in only 6.3% of them, but he launched 38 home runs, stole five bases, led the National League in RBIs with 113 and provided excellent defense. He got a 9.9 from UZR, 19 DRS and +4 OAA. That DRS figure was tied with Michael A. Taylor for best in the league among all outfielders while the UZR score was in the top five. That was primarily corner outfield work, but 210 2/3 innings out of his 1155 total innings came in center field. He was awarded the National League Gold Glove award for right field. All told, FanGraphs calculated him to be worth 2.7 wins above replacement for the year.

Duvall is now 34 years old and coming off a down year, both in terms of health and performance. It would be easy to roll one’s eyes at the idea of a team bringing him aboard and giving him a significant role. However, the pickings in free agency are getting slim and every player still out there is going to have flaws in one way or another. Duvall likely won’t earn a tremendous salary in free agency due to his struggles this year, but he has the ability to provide strong corner outfield defense while playing center field on occasion. His plate discipline isn’t great but he has tremendous power. It’s also possible that the upcoming shift bans will boost his batting average by a few points, since he was shifted in 71.7% of his plate appearances this year despite hitting right-handed. Even with his struggles at the plate in 2022, he was still worth 0.9 fWAR in 86 games before the wrist issue put him out for the second half. He isn’t likely to kill you in a platoon capacity either, as his career splits aren’t drastic, with a 101 wRC+ against lefties and a 94 otherwise. For a team looking for a low-cost flier to find some sneaky value this late in the offseason, they could do much worse.

Hyun-Jin Ryu Targeting July Return From Tommy John Surgery

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Hyun Jin Ryu saw his 2022 season cut short in mid-June, when a second bout of forearm soreness necessitated Tommy John surgery. Now more than six months removed from that procedure, the former All-Star is on track in his recovery.

Speaking with reporters in his home country of South Korea, Ryu said his rehab process remains on schedule (via Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News). The veteran starter indicated he hopes he can return to the Jays in July, roughly 13 months after going under the knife. All-Star festivities are scheduled for July 9-13, but a return early in the season’s unofficial second half seems like a rough target date as things stand.

Of course, that’s contingent on future steps in his rehab. Any kind of setback or delay once Ryu returns to throwing could push back that timetable. If all goes well, however, it’s possible he’ll play a role on the Toronto pitching staff for what the team hopes to be another postseason run.

Ryu made just six starts in 2022, allowing a 5.67 ERA across 27 innings. Forearm inflammation cost him a month between April and May and he suffered the setback that required surgery just four starts after his return from that IL stint. Through his first two seasons north of the border, the former ERA leader had a decent amount of success. He posted a 2.69 ERA across 12 starts during the truncated 2020 campaign, securing a third-place finish in AL Cy Young balloting as a result. His 4.37 ERA in 2021 marked a notable step back, but he stayed healthy enough to soak up 169 innings through 31 starts that year.

Toronto has an excellent top of the rotation, with Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman backed up by offseason signee Chris Bassitt. The Jays are hoping for a bounceback year from José Berríos, who had a disappointing first full season in Toronto but was an above-average pitcher between 2017-21. The fifth spot is up in the air, with neither Yusei Kikuchi nor Mitch White seizing the job. Former top prospect Nate Pearson remains on hand but pitched just 15 1/3 minor league innings in 2022 due to mononucleosis and a lat strain.

Ryu is headed into the final season of the four-year free agent deal he inked during the 2019-20 offseason. He’ll make $20MM before hitting the open market again at the end of the year. Getting back onto the mound and demonstrating his health with a handful of late-season starts would be a nice boost to his stock heading into the 2023-24 offseason.

Marlins Sign Jean Segura

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December 29: Segura’s deal has a third year team option, per Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. It’s not clear what kind of option that is, but Mish provides the specific financial breakdown. Segura will make $6.5MM in 2023 and $8.5MM in 2024, then there’s a $10MM option for 2025 with a $2MM buyout.

December 28: The Marlins are in agreement on a deal with Jean Segura, as first reported by Héctor Gómez of Z101 (Twitter link). Once finalized, it’ll be a two-year, $17MM contract for the CAA client.

Segura has spent the last four years in the NL East. The Phillies acquired the right-handed hitting infielder over the 2018-19 offseason in a deal that sent J.P. Crawford and offloaded the final season of Carlos Santana’s contract to the Mariners. He spent four seasons as an everyday middle infielder in Philadelphia. He hit free agency at the start of this offseason when the team bought him out for $1MM in lieu of a $17MM option.

As he has for much of his career, Segura provided consistently effective work on both sides of the ball. He hit between 10 and 14 home runs in all three full seasons while stealing between nine and 13 bases in each year. In each of the past three seasons, he’s put up slightly above-average numbers at the plate. Since the start of the 2019 campaign, the two-time All-Star owns a .281/.337/.418 line through just under 1800 trips to the dish.

Segura has typically been a durable and reliable presence in the lineup, topping 125 games in all eight full seasons from 2013-21 and playing in 57 of 60 games during the abbreviated 2020 campaign. That wasn’t the case in 2022, as he fractured his right index finger on a bunt attempt at the end of May. That required surgery and sidelined him through early August, but Segura’s rate production this year was in line with that of prior seasons.

The 32-year-old (33 in March) hit .277/.336/.387 over 387 plate appearances. He’s not one to draw many walks or hit for huge power, but he makes plenty of contact. Segura only struck out in 15% of his trips to the plate and has posted a lower than average strikeout percentage in every season of his career. He put the bat on the ball on 83.2% of his swings this past season, a rate that’s nearly six percentage points higher than the league average. Those contact skills are certainly appealing to a Marlins club that entered the offseason seeking hitters with low strikeout rates.

It’s the first notable roster move of the winter for Miami general manager Kim Ng and her staff. They’ve sought to upgrade a lineup that ranked 28th in MLB in run scoring but hadn’t made any moves to bolster the offense thus far. Segura adds a potential top-of-the-lineup threat for first-year manager Skip Schumaker.

While he’s a solid addition to the batting order, it’s not as ideal a fit positionally. Segura played shortstop for the early part of his career but posted below-average defensive marks there in 2019. After that season, Philadelphia signed Didi Gregorius and kicked Segura to the other side of the bag. He’s played almost exclusively second base for three years, with just 21 starts at third base and two starts at shortstop (all in 2020) over that stretch. Segura has manned shortstop for only two innings in the past two seasons.

Since moving to the keystone, the Dominican Republic native has rated highly with the glove. Defensive Runs Saved has credited him a cumulative six runs above average for the past three years, while Statcast has pegged him 13 runs above par. Second base is his best position at this stage of his career, meaning it appears young star Jazz Chisholm Jr. will kick over to shortstop. While Chisholm came up as a shortstop prospect, he’s played mostly second base in MLB. Like Segura, he didn’t log a single inning outside of second base in 2022. In a fairly small sample of 329 2/3 innings at shortstop from 2020-21, Chisholm rated as a below-average defender by both DRS and Statcast.

Moving Chisholm to shortstop could signal a reduction in playing time for Miguel Rojas. Regarded as Miami’s unofficial team captain, Rojas has been the primary shortstop in South Florida for five straight seasons. He’s a quality defender but hit only .236/.283/.323 across 507 plate appearances in 2022. That lackluster offensive showing could be partially explained by injury, as the 33-year-old underwent surgery to repair cartilage damage in his right wrist at season’s end. Rojas is under contract for $5MM next season and reportedly drew some trade interest from the Red Sox earlier this winter. Miami could certainly keep Rojas around as infield depth — particularly if they deal third baseman Joey Wendle instead — but the Segura signing could make them more willing to entertain trade offers on their incumbent shortstop.

Segura was one of four players and two position players (the other being Jurickson Profar) from MLBTR’s pre-offseason top 50 free agents who hadn’t yet agreed to terms. The reported contract is a near-match for the two years and $18MM which MLBTR had projected. The deal’s specific financial breakdown remains unreported, but evenly distributing $8.5MM salaries would bring Miami’s estimated 2023 payroll to $103MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. That’d be a fair bit north of this past season’s $79MM Opening Day mark.

How much money Ng and her staff still have to play with isn’t clear, though the club could continue to look for ways to address the offense. Center field is an obvious area of need, while Miami may add behind the plate or at the corner infield. The Marlins’ stable of quality young pitching gives them the chance to turn to the trade market for offensive help, which now figures to be the course of action after tonight’s dip into free agency.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

The Opener: Marlins, Mariners, Middle Infield

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With the new year fast approaching, here’s three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around baseball throughout the day today:

1. Does the Segura signing signal more moves for Miami?

The Marlins have long been considered a likely participant in the trade market this offseason, with plenty of holes in the lineup and a deep rotation from which to deal. This speculation is sure to increase with last night’s signing of Jean Segura to a two-year, $17MM contract. While Segura seems like a good bet to improve Miami’s offense, he’s a curious positional fit for a team that already has Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Miguel Rojas up the middle. Barring a position change on Segura’s part, it seems likely that Rojas will join fellow infielder Joey Wendle on the trading block. Rojas didn’t hit much in 2022 (72 OPS+) but could be attractive to teams looking for help at short as a glove-first, veteran option thanks to his strong defensive metrics last season that made him a finalist for the Gold Glove award. The Red Sox are known to have previously checked in on Rojas already this offseason, though the Marlins are said to have rebuffed Boston’s advances at the time. It’s possible Miami’s tune changes with the acquisition of Segura, though, particularly given the sides have since discussed Wendle in trade talks as well. Speculatively speaking, the White Sox could also make sense as a trade partner for one of Miami’s infielders given their hole at second base, while it’s possible the Angels could look to add a stronger glove to their shortstop mix than the current top options of Luis Rengifo and Gio Urshela.

2. Will the Mariners add a bat?

At the beginning of this offseason, there was something of a logjam in Seattle’s outfield, which was only exacerbated by their acquisition of Teoscar Hernandez from the Blue Jays. Since then, however, the Mariners have shipped out Kyle Lewis and Jesse Winker in separate deals, leaving them in a position where it could behoove them to add another bat to their outfield/DH mix. As things stand, Jarred Kelenic, Dylan Moore, and Cooper Hummel appear to be the primary internal options set to mix and match between left field and DH, and the addition of another bat could solidify that mix considerably. That could come through free agency, as Jurickson Profar remains on the market as an everyday option, while the likes of David Peralta and AJ Pollock could be added as more complementary options. It would be no surprise, though, if the Mariners decided to explore the trade market, given the thinned out market for starting pitchers and Seattle’s willingness to deal one of Chris Flexen or Marco Gonzales to improve other areas of the roster. Should they choose to go this route, striking a deal with the Cardinals or Orioles could make some sense, as both teams have an excess of position player talent and could benefit from the addition of an arm like Flexen or Gonzales.

3. Where does the infield market stand now that Segura’s off the board?

With Segura joining the Marlins, the infield market has lost its best remaining bat. There are still plenty of teams in need of an infielder, though, even in addition to the aforementioned Red Sox, White Sox, and Angels. The Dodgers, Braves, and Twins could all stand to add an infielder after losing their starting shortstops to free agency earlier this offseason, while the Giants and Tigers could also stand to upgrade their infield mixes. Elvis Andrus, Josh Harrison, and Evan Longoria represent the best options remaining across the infield, though players like Matt Duffy, Brian Anderson, and Cesar Hernandez could also be worth a look as potential bounce-back candidates. Shifting focus to the trade market, in addition to Miami, Baltimore could be another club to watch, as they could look to deal an infielder like Jorge Mateo or Ramon Urias to make room for their incoming infield prospects like Joey Ortiz, and it’s possible the Mets could look to deal Eduardo Escobar if the Carlos Correa deal makes it past the finish line.

Braves Acquire Eli White From Rangers

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The Braves announced they’ve acquired outfielder Eli White from the Rangers in exchange for cash. Infielder Hoy Park was designated for assignment to clear a 40-man roster spot. Texas had DFA White last week.

White, 28, has appeared at the MLB level in each of the last three seasons. A former Oakland draftee who landed with the Rangers in the Jurickson Profar swap before the 2019 campaign, he debuted with Texas the next year. White played a sporadic role for the next few seasons, suiting up in 130 games. He owns a .185/.260/.295 line over that stretch, hitting nine home runs but striking out at a massive 31.6% clip.

While While hasn’t hit much at the MLB level, he’s shown flashes in other areas. He’s stolen 17 bags in 22 career attempts, including a 12-for-13 success rate this year. The Clemson product has demonstrated that athleticism on defense, with Defensive Runs Saved pegging him 11 runs above average through 890 career innings of outfield work. He’s rated as nine runs better than par by Statcast’s Outs Above Average, with most of his time in left and center field.

White’s 2022 season was cut short in June when he fractured his right wrist in an outfield collision. The injury required surgery, but there’s no indication it’ll have any lingering effects on his 2023 preparation. Assuming he holds his 40-man roster spot all winter, he’ll compete for a bench job in Spring Training. Atlanta has Marcell Ozuna, Eddie Rosario, Jordan Luplow and Sam Hilliard all jockeying for left field playing time alongside Michael Harris II and Ronald Acuña Jr. No one in the left field mix — White included — can be optioned to the minor leagues, so Atlanta may wind up dropping one or two of those players from the 40-man roster before the regular season kicks off.

Park landed in Atlanta less than two weeks ago. The Braves acquired the left-handed hitting infielder from the Red Sox for cash or a player to be named later. He’d just been claimed off waivers by Boston from the Pirates, and he’ll head into DFA limbo for a third time this winter.

The 26-year-old has a .201/.291/.346 line in 210 MLB plate appearances with the Yankees and Bucs in the past two seasons. He’s shown solid plate discipline but hit for below-average power and struck out at a slightly elevated rate. The South Korea native is a .255/.384/.417 hitter in parts of two Triple-A campaigns. He’s played each of second, third base, shortstop and all three outfield spots in his limited MLB time. Park has two minor league option years remaining, so another team willing to devote him a 40-man roster spot could keep him in Triple-A for the next couple seasons. He’ll be traded or waived yet again in the next seven days.

Braves Acquire Lucas Luetge From Yankees

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The Braves announced they’ve acquired reliever Lucas Luetge from the Yankees. Minor leaguers Caleb Durbin and Indigo Diaz are headed back in return. To clear a spot on their 40-man roster, Atlanta designated first baseman Lewin Díaz for assignment.

New York surprisingly designated Luetge for assignment last Wednesday. That opened a one-week window for them to trade him or place him on waivers, but the former outcome always seemed likelier. The veteran southpaw has been a productive piece of the New York bullpen over the past two years, so it’s no surprise to see a team part with some minor league talent to keep him off waivers.

Luetge, 35, pitched two seasons in the Bronx after signing a minor league deal during the 2020-21 offseason. Over his time in pinstripes, he put together a 2.71 ERA through 129 2/3 frames. That included a sub-3.00 mark in both years, with Luetge topping 55 innings in each season. His 2022 campaign saw him put together a 2.67 mark across 57 1/3 frames, striking out a solid 23.9% of opponents against a better than average 6.8% walk rate.

The veteran has held left-handed opponents to a .229/.281/.324 line in 185 plate appearances since joining the Yankees. Righties have a .268/.320/.395 slash that’s better but not overwhelming, meaning Luetge doesn’t have to be leveraged solely against same-handed hitters. He doesn’t throw hard but he’s been excellent at staying off barrels. Only 23.5% of batted balls against him this past season were hit hard, per Statcast; that’s the lowest rate of any qualified pitcher in the game.

Luetge has between four and five years of major league service. He’s arbitration-eligible for the next two seasons, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a $1.7MM salary in 2023. He’ll add a third southpaw to what should be a very strong Atlanta relief corps, with A.J. Minter and Dylan Lee on hand for higher-leverage work.

The acquisition bumps Lewin Díaz off the 40-man roster and back into DFA limbo. That’s familiar territory for the 26-year-old first baseman, who has changed organizations four times this winter. He’s gone from the Marlins to the Pirates to the Orioles via waivers, and Atlanta just purchased his contract from Baltimore last week.

The Braves will now have a week to deal Díaz or try to pass him through waivers, so it’s possible he changes teams again in the coming days. A left-handed hitter, he’s a .181/.227/.340 hitter through 112 MLB games. Díaz has a more impressive .250/.325/.504 mark in just under 700 Triple-A plate appearances, though. He’s also regarded as a plus defender at first base, with public defensive metrics very bullish on his early-career work at the position. That’s led to a decent amount of interest around the league, though Díaz hasn’t yet stuck on a 40-man roster very long this winter.

As for the Yankees, they’ll bring in some minor league talent. Indigo Diaz was a 27th-round pick in the 2019 draft. He entered the 2022 campaign as the #21 prospect in the Atlanta system, according to Baseball America. The 24-year-old spent the whole season at Double-A Mississippi, posting a 3.08 ERA through 49 2/3 innings of relief. The 6’5″ righty struck out nearly 30% of opposing hitters but walked batters at a huge 14.6% clip. Diaz went unselected in this offseason’s Rule 5 draft and adds some non-roster bullpen depth to the upper minors in New York.

Durbin went in the 14th round in the 2021 draft. He split this past season between two A-ball levels, hitting .241/.352/.372 across 450 plate appearances with matching 10.9% strikeout and walk rates. A right-handed hitter, Durbin split his time between second, third base and shortstop. He turns 23 in February and won’t be eligible for the Rule 5 draft until after the 2024 campaign.

Pirates Designate Bryse Wilson For Assignment

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The Pirates announced they’ve designated Bryse Wilson for assignment. The move clears a spot on the 40-man roster for Jarlín García, who has officially signed his one-year deal with a 2024 club option.

A fourth-round draftee of the Braves out of a North Carolina high school in 2016, Wilson developed into one of the sport’s better pitching prospects a few seasons later. The right-hander ranked among Baseball America’s top 100 minor league talents in advance of the 2019 season after debuting with three MLB appearances late in the prior year.

Despite that lofty prospect pedigree, Wilson never got much run in the Atlanta starting staff. He’d start just six of 12 outings the next two years before picking up eight starts in the first half of the 2021 campaign. Wilson pitched fairly well at the Triple-A level but managed only a 5.90 ERA through 23 appearances in an Atlanta uniform. In advance of the ’21 trade deadline, the Braves dealt him and minor league pitcher Ricky DeVito to Pittsburgh for reliever Richard Rodríguez.

That trade didn’t pan out as either team had envisioned. Rodríguez struggled down the stretch and was non-tendered at the end of the season. Wilson has spent a season and a half in Pittsburgh but didn’t seize a permanent rotation spot. Since landing with the Bucs, he’s posted a 5.37 ERA across 156 innings in 33 appearances (28 starts). Wilson struck out a below-average 15% of opposing hitters while allowing a .279/.330/.484 line in just under 700 plate appearances.

Wilson did demonstrate the quality control for which he was credited as a prospect. He walked only 6.2% of opponents as a Pirate, including a 6.3% clip through 115 2/3 frames this past season. He induced grounders this year at a roughly average 43.3% rate, the highest of his career.

The Pirates squeezed Wilson out of the rotation in recent weeks with free agent additions of Vince Velasquez and Rich Hill. That duo figures to join Roansy Contreras, JT Brubaker and Mitch Keller in the season-opening starting five. They’ll now have a week to trade Wilson or attempt to run him through waivers.

While Wilson hasn’t yet found much MLB success, he could attract the interest of a pitching-needy club. He just turned 25 this month and had a strong prospect pedigree in the not too distant past. Wilson’s velocity has backed up in recent years, dropping from the 94-95 MPH range to roughly 91-92 MPH this year. He’s shown above-average control and mixes six pitches, however, so another team with some uncertainty at the back of their starting staff could look into a claim. Wilson is out of minor league option years, so an acquiring team would have to keep him on their active roster or again make him available to other clubs.

Which Free Agents Remain For Teams Seeking Rotation Help?

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With the holiday slowing down what had become a very rapid offseason, it works as a natural point to take stock of what players clubs could target in the coming weeks. On Monday, MLBTR looked through the remaining free agent relievers coming off the best 2022 campaigns (one of whom has since signed a major league deal). Now we’ll take stock of the rotation options who are still out on the open market.

There aren’t as many starting pitchers for clubs to sort through as there were bullpen targets, with 19 remaining hurlers who tallied at least 20 rotation innings this past season. We’ll look at the top half of that group by various metrics to determine who teams figure to prioritize as they seek starting pitching depth.

Note: all figures cited, including league averages, are looking solely at pitchers’ outings as starters.

ERA (league average — 4.05)

  1. Johnny Cueto (RHP), 3.29
  2. Michael Wacha (RHP), 3.32
  3. Wade Miley (LHP), 3.34
  4. Bryan Garcia (RHP), 3.54
  5. Zack Greinke (RHP), 3.68
  6. Devin Smeltzer (LHP), 4.02
  7. Zach Davies (RHP), 4.06
  8. Aníbal Sánchez (RHP), 4.28
  9. Drew Hutchison (RHP), 4.52

Strikeout rate (league average — 21.6%)

  1. Chase Anderson (RHP), 24.6%
  2. Matt Swarmer (RHP), 22.4%
  3. Bryan Garcia, 20.2%
  4. Michael Wacha, 20.2%
  5. Chris Archer (RHP), 19.2%
  6. Wade Miley, 18.4%
  7. Zach Davies, 17.9%
  8. Chad Kuhl (RHP), 17.8%
  9. Mike Minor (LHP), 16.7%

Strikeout/walk rate differential (league average — 14.1 percentage points)

  1. Michael Wacha, 14.2 points
  2. Matt Swarmer, 13.1 points
  3. Dylan Bundy (RHP), 11.1 points
  4. Chase Anderson, 10.6 points
  5. Johnny Cueto, 10.5 points
  6. Wade Miley, 9.2 points
  7. Michael Pineda (RHP), 9 points
  8. Aaron Sanchez (RHP), 9 points
  9. Zach Davies, 8.8 points

Ground-ball rate (league average — 42.5%)

  1. Wade Miley, 54.2%
  2. Aaron Sanchez, 51.3%
  3. Chase Anderson, 50.9%
  4. Dallas Keuchel (LHP), 50.2%
  5. Jared Koenig (LHP), 47.2%
  6. Chris Archer, 43.7%
  7. Zach Davies, 42.9%
  8. Johnny Cueto, 42.5%
  9. Zack Greinke, 41.3%

FIP (league average — 4.04)

  1. Johnny Cueto, 3.76
  2. Wade Miley, 4.00
  3. Zack Greinke, 4.03
  4. Michael Wacha, 4.14
  5. Chase Anderson, 4.37
  6. Chris Archer, 4.49
  7. Aaron Sanchez, 4.61
  8. Dylan Bundy, 4.66
  9. Zach Davies, 4.83

Innings pitched

  1. Johnny Cueto, 153 1/3
  2. Dylan Bundy, 140
  3. Zack Greinke, 137
  4. Chad Kuhl, 137
  5. Zach Davies, 134 1/3
  6. Michael Wacha, 127 1/3
  7. Chris Archer, 102 2/3
  8. Mike Minor, 98
  9. Drew Hutchison, 89 2/3

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