AL East Notes: Means, Bautista, Verdugo, Bradley
The Orioles have had a wildly successful 2023 campaign, with an 84-51 record that places them 2.5 games ahead of the Rays in a highly competitive AL East division. Despite that success, the club’s clear Achilles heel throughout the season has been the starting rotation, which has produced just 8.3 fWAR this year, 19th in the majors and only better than San Francisco among clubs currently in playoff position. While the club added right-hander Jack Flaherty at the trade deadline to bolster their staff, he’s struggled to a 6.41 ERA in 19 2/3 innings of work with Baltimore.
Given this, it should be a major relief to Orioles fans that left-hander John Means may be nearing a return to the big league club. MLB.com’s Jake Rill relays that manager Brandon Hyde indicated to reporters that Means will make another rehab start with Triple-A Norfolk but could be available to join the club’s big league rotation following that. Means, of course, hasn’t pitched since April 2022 after undergoing Tommy John surgery but sports a 3.72 ERA and 4.59 FIP in 353 1/3 innings of work since the start of his rookie campaign back in 2019. If the 30-year-old lefty can recapture his steady, mid-rotation performance from prior to his surgery in time for the postseason, he’ll surely be an asset to a rotation that figures to include right-handers Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, and Kyle Gibson.
More from around the AL East…
- Sticking with the Orioles, closer Felix Bautista hit the injured list with “some degree of injury” to his UCL last week, though since then specifics regarding his situation have been sparse. Hyde provided an update regarding Bautista to reporters this afternoon, with Rill relaying that the club is waiting for inflammation in Bautista’s elbow to go down before deciding on next steps. While Bautista already underwent an MRI, Rill notes that more tests could be in the 28-year-old’s future as the club tries to determine the best course of action for their breakout relief ace.
- Red Sox outfielder Alex Verdugo exited today’s game against the Royals due to what the club termed as hamstring tightness. Pete Abraham of The Boston Globe caught up with Verdugo following the game and the 27-year-old downplayed the severity of the issue, suggesting that he “felt a little something” in his hamstring during the sixth inning and that it should be taken care of with a day or two of rest. Should Verdugo miss more time than that, the club has Wilyer Abreu, Cedanne Rafaela, and Rob Refsnyder as options to fill out the outfield alongside Adam Duvall and Masataka Yoshida.
- The Rays recalled rookie starter Taj Bradley today, with the 22-year-old hurler taking the place of the recently-injured Jason Adam on the active roster. Bradley’s first sixteen starts with Tampa were something of a mixed bag; while the youngster dazzled with a 30% strikeout rate against a 7.9% walk rate, his 5.67 ERA in 74 2/3 innings left a great deal to be desired in terms of both results and volume. Of course, it’s worth pointing out that Bradley’s BABIP allowed was the sixth-highest figure in the majors among pitchers with at least 70 innings of work this year, while his strand rate was tenth lowest. That combination indicates some degree of bad luck in Bradley’s results, though a whopping 17.3% of his fly balls leaving the yard for home runs serves as an indicator that not all of his struggles have been pure misfortune. Bradley will look to end his rookie campaign on a high note as a member of the rotation alongside Tyler Glasnow, Aaron Civale, Zach Eflin, and Zack Littell.
NL Central Notes: Stroman, Cubs, McLain, India, Matz
The Cubs have been without right-hander Marcus Stroman for just over a month now thanks to inflammation in the 32-year-old hurler’s right hip and a subsequently-diagnosed rib cartilage fracture. Upon the reveal of Stroman’s rib injury two weeks ago, whether or not he would be able to return this season came into question as he was set to be shut down for several weeks without a clear timeline for recovery. Fortunately for fans on the north side, Stroman’s timetable seems to be coming into focus with a return this season clearly still on the table.
Manager David Ross told reporters (including Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun Times) ahead of today’s game against the Reds that Stroman will throw a bullpen session in Arizona. That still leaves a long way for Stroman to go before he can return to a major league mound; assuming tomorrow’s bullpen goes well, he’ll need to progress to facing live hitters and then likely require at least a rehab start or two in the minor leagues before he can return to the starting rotation for the Cubs. Still, even a brief cameo from Stroman before the regular season comes to a close could be a huge boon to Chicago.
Stroman sports a 3.85 ERA and 3.58 FIP across 23 starts this year, but it’s really been a tale of two seasons for the veteran hurler: while he posted a sterling 2.28 ERA and 3.33 FIP in his first sixteen starts, his final seven starts before hitting the injured list saw him post an ugly 9.00 ERA, albeit with a less outlandish 4.39 FIP. It’s hard to say how much of that downturn in performance was related to Stroman’s current injuries, but a healthy and effective return for the right-hander would not only help the Cubs as they look to make the playoffs in a full season for the first time since 2018, but also give them another quality option to start in the playoffs alongside lefty ace Justin Steele and veteran hurler Kyle Hendricks, should they succeed in reaching the postseason.
More from around the NL Central:
- Sticking with the Cubs, Lee also relayed updates from Ross regarding a trio of potential bullpen options for Chicago down the stretch. Left-hander Brandon Hughes and righties Nick Burdi and Ben Brown are expected to pitch today with Triple-A Iowa. Hughes was a breakout reliever for the Cubs last year with a 3.12 ERA in 57 2/3 innings of work with the club last year, but struggled through 13 2/3 injury-plagued innings earlier this season before undergoing knee surgery back in June. Hughes’s return to the bullpen would surely provide a boost for Chicago as swing option Drew Smyly is the only southpaw in the club’s bullpen at the moment. Brown has not yet pitched in the majors but is one of the club’s top prospects who had long been rumored as a potential late-season bullpen option prior to an injury that kept him out of action for the entire month of August. Burdi managed just three innings with the Cubs earlier this season in his first major league work since 2020 before going on the injured list with appendicitis and ulnar nerve irritation.
- It seems the Reds will be without rookie infielder Matt McLain for a while yet, as the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Charlie Goldsmith relayed an update from manager David Bell indicating that McLain would be out with an oblique injury for two to three more weeks. Such a timeline would likely leave him out of action for most of the remaining regular season. That’s a major blow to the Reds, who have relied on McLain’s strong bat (129 wRC+) and quality glovework around the infield and sit alongside the Marlins, Diamondbacks, and Giants in the thick of the race for the final NL Wild Card spot. Fortunately, the Reds could still receive some reinforcements for their infield in the near future as second baseman Jonathan India is on track to begin a rehab assignment this week after missing the past month with plantar fasciitis.
- Cardinals manager Oli Marmol indicated to reporters (including Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat) that left-hander Steven Matz‘s season could be in jeopardy as the veteran is still “week-to-week” in his rehab from a lat strain sustained last month. Marmol noted that there is “probably not” enough time for him to return in 2023. Daniel Guerrero of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch adds that a return from Matz would likely be limited in terms of length, as Matz won’t have time to get stretched out as a starter before the season comes to a close. Matz has had an up-and-down season with the Cardinals this year but will end the season with solid overall numbers if he’s ultimately unable to return. In 25 appearances (17 starts), Matz posted a 3.86 ERA, 11% better than league average by measure of ERA+, with a 3.76 FIP in 105 innings of work.
Nationals Sign Rico Garcia To Two-Year Minor League Deal
The Nationals have signed right-hander Rico Garcia to a minor league contract that runs through the 2024 season, The Washington Post’s Jesse Dougherty reports (via X). Garcia was became a free agent yesterday after being released by Washington, but he’ll now quickly rejoin the Nats.
Biceps tendinitis has kept Garcia from pitching at either the major or minor league level since July 28, and that same injury probably resulted in Garcia’s brief foray in the free agent market. Injured players can only be placed on release waivers rather than outright waivers, but it seems quite possible that there might have been a handshake deal in place for Garcia to re-sign with D.C. once the transactional red tape was cleared.
The two-year nature of the contract also seems to hint that Garcia might need more time to recover from his injury, though details are scarce on his health status. Reports from early August indicated that Garcia was starting some rehab work at the Nationals’ spring camp, but Garcia had yet to appear in any rehab games.
The 29-year-old Garcia has appeared in four of the last five MLB seasons, suiting up for five different teams. The A’s designated Garcia for assignment in July but he rejected the outright assignment to Triple-A in favor of free agency, and he then landed with the Nationals on a minors deal. Garcia has a 9.26 ERA over 11 2/3 combined innings with Oakland and Washington this season, and a 7.32 ERA over his 35 2/3 career frames of big league work.
Tommy John surgery wiped out all of Garcia’s 2021 season, but he returned as essentially a full-time relief pitcher, and he has posted some good numbers at the Triple-A level over the last two years. His 2.93 ERA over 27 2/3 Triple-A innings this season was marred by some uncharacteristic control problems, but Garcia posted a 29.51% strikeout rate.
Astros Claim Bennett Sousa Off Waivers
The Astros have claimed left-hander Bennett Sousa off of Detroit’s waiver wire, according to the Tigers. The Astros announced that infielder Rylan Bannon was designated for assignment to create roster space on Houston’s 40-man. Right-hander Blair Calvo was also outrighted to the Tigers’ Triple-A affiliate after clearing waivers.
Sousa has been optioned to Triple-A Sugar Land, where he’ll provide some depth should the Astros need some left-handed help in their bullpen. Framber Valdez is the only left-hander on Houston’s MLB roster, and Sousa joins fellow Sugar Land Space Cowboys Parker Mushinski and Matt Gage as the only other left-handed options on the 40-man.
The 28-year-old Sousa is changing teams for the second time in a week, as Detroit only claimed him off waivers from the Brewers on August 29. Sousa’s brief Tigers tenure didn’t result in any Major League or minor league action with the organization, as the Tigers designated him for assignment just on September 1.
A tenth-round pick for the White Sox in the 2018 draft, Sousa made his MLB debut with Chicago in 2022 before joining the Reds on a waiver claim back in February. The Brewers then acquired Sousa in April, leading to two appearances for Sousa in a Milwaukee uniform. Altogether, Sousa has appeared in 27 MLB games and thrown 23 innings during his career, posting an even 9.00 ERA. Over 193 1/3 innings in the minors, Sousa has a 2.98 ERA to go along with some good strikeout rates and grounder rates, though control has increasingly become an issue as Sousa has worked his way up the minor league ladder.
Bannon made his Major League debut last season, and has already suited up for three different teams (Orioles, Braves, Astros) over his seven career games in the Show. Perhaps best known as one of the five players acquired by the O’s from the Dodgers in the Manny Machado trade, Bannon was involved in a flurry of waiver claims over the last five months of 2022, going from the Orioles to the Dodgers to the Braves to the Cubs and finally to the Astros in December.
His 21 career PA in the majors have only yielded two hits, but Bannon has posted some decent numbers in the minors, including a .228/.339/.420 slash line over 1191 PA at the Triple-A level. Between his bat and his ability to play second base, third base, and shortstop, it wouldn’t be a shock if Bannon is claimed again on waivers from a team looking for some infield depth.
Guardians Activate Josh Naylor From 10-Day Injured List
The Guardians announced that Josh Naylor has been activated from the 10-day injured list, with outfielder Oscar Gonzalez headed to Triple-A in the corresponding move. Naylor will return to Cleveland’s lineup after missing over a month due to a strained oblique.
Naylor was initially projected to miss between three to six weeks, so he’ll get back to action roughly halfway through that estimated recovery timetable. While missing Naylor for any amount of time was a blow to the Guardians, the club will at least get their second-best hitter back for most of September, and Naylor fortunately avoided any kind of lingering oblique issue that might’ve threatened his season entirely.
With a .306/.346/.500 slash line and 15 homers over 390 plate appearances this season, Naylor has joined Jose Ramirez as essentially the only premium bats within a lackluster Guardians lineup. The timing of Naylor’s injury seemed to almost close the door on the Guards’ chances of contending, as the team had already moved Aaron Civale, Amed Rosario, and Josh Bell in advance of the trade deadline.
However, while Cleveland is only 13-16 since the start of August, they remain five games behind the Twins for first place in the AL Central. Naylor’s impending return might have inspired the Guardians’ decision to be aggressive during the recent flurry of pre-September 1 waiver placements, as the Guards bolstered their pitching ranks by claiming Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, and Matt Moore from the Angels. It remains to be seen if these new arms and Naylor’s bat might be enough to get Cleveland past Minnesota, but even with a 66-70 record, the Guardians aren’t quitting on the 2023 campaign.
Twins Place Michael A. Taylor On 10-Day IL, Activate Willi Castro
The Twins placed outfielder Michael A. Taylor on the 10-day injured list due to a right hamstring strain. Minnesota also announced that utilityman Willi Castro was activated from his own 10-day IL stint to take Taylor’s spot on the active roster.
Acquired from the Royals in an offseason trade, Taylor has been Minnesota’s primary center fielder this season, helping fill the void up the middle since Byron Buxton‘s knee issues have limited him to DH duty. Taylor has delivered his customary excellent defense and also provided the Twins with some unexpected power, as the outfielder has hit a career-best 20 home runs. While Taylor’s .229/.281/.456 slash line over 354 plate appearances still translates to a slightly below-average 99 wRC+, that still represents Taylor’s best number since his 104 wRC+ with the Nationals in 2017. Between the glovework, the power, and 13 steals in 14 chances, Taylor has generated 1.9 fWAR, making him a nice under-the-radar contributor to the Twins’ lineup.
Unfortunately, he’ll now miss at least the 10 days healing up a balky hamstring that has been a nagging issue for most of the week. Losing Taylor is a setback for a Twins club that is still trying to put away the Guardians in the AL Central race, and Minnesota can only hope that Taylor won’t miss much beyond the 10-day minimum.
Castro has seen the second-most innings of any Twins player in center field this season, so the utilityman is likely to be joined by Andrew Stevenson, Jordan Luplow, and Joey Gallo in filling in on the grass while Taylor is out. Castro hasn’t played since August 11 due to a left oblique strain, but he’ll now return to give Minnesota a versatile depth option all over the diamond. Left field, third base, and center field have been Castro’s primary positions this year, but he has also seen some time as a second baseman, shortstop, and right fielder. At the plate, Castro is hitting .241/.322/.371 over 315 PA.
In other Twins outfield news, Buxton continues to recover from a hamstring strain of his own, though he has still been battling patella tendinitis in his bothersome right knee. Twins manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters (including Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune) that Buxton’s knee soreness isn’t unexpected, especially since Buxton had recently played center field during his minor league rehab assignment. This represented Buxton’s first time playing in the field in over a year.
Rockies Place Daniel Bard On 15-Day IL, Activate Chase Anderson
The Rockies announced that right-hander Daniel Bard was placed on the 15-day injured list (retroactive to September 2) due to fatigue in his throwing forearm. Bard’s spot on the active roster will be taken by Chase Anderson, who was activated from the 15-day IL and will start today’s game against the Blue Jays.
There isn’t yet any word on whether Bard’s forearm issue is serious or simply precautionary, though the “fatigue” wording seems to indicate the latter. Nevertheless, given that it’s already September and that the Rockies are out of contention, it is quite possible the team might shut Bard down for the remainder of the season.
It has been a difficult year on and off the field for Bard, as he missed the first few weeks of the season due to anxiety issues. While he was thankfully able to return to the mound, his numbers took a big dropoff from his excellent 2022 performance. Bard has a 4.70 ERA, 19.9% strikeout rate, and a whopping 20.8% walk rate over 46 innings this year, with that walk rate standing out as the highest in baseball for any hurler with at least 40 innings pitched.
As of July 25, Bard still had a 2.02 ERA, but a 13.94 ERA over his next 10 1/3 innings threw his season-long numbers into disarray. This includes seven earned runs over his last two outings, which could be explained by the forearm problem.
Anderson hasn’t pitched since July 22 due to shoulder inflammation, and the veteran righty will now get back on the mound to try and salvage a strong finish to an underwhelming season. One of many Colorado pitchers to struggle in 2023, Anderson has a 6.63 ERA over 55 2/3 innings since being claimed off waivers from the Rays in May.
Orioles Make Four Roster Moves
The Orioles announced four roster moves prior to today’s game with the Diamondbacks. Newly-claimed reliever Jorge Lopez has been officially activated, and right-hander Austin Voth was designated for assignment to create room for Lopez on the 40-man roster. Baltimore also optioned Colton Cowser to Triple-A, as outfielder Aaron Hicks was activated from the 10-day injured list.
Voth has a 5.19 ERA over 34 2/3 relief innings this season, with a middling 21.3% strikeout rate and 9.4% walk rate. His season was interrupted by a stint on the 60-day injured list, as elbow discomfort sidelined Voth from the middle of June to less than two weeks ago. In two appearances since his activation, Voth tossed two scoreless innings against the Rockies on August 27 but was then tagged for three runs over 1 2/3 frames against the White Sox on August 30.
Between the injury and the inflated ERA, it has been a tough season overall for Voth, who seemed to have turned a corner after the Orioles picked him up from the Nationals on a waiver claim in June 2022. Voth had been inconsistent at best over five seasons as a starter and reliever in Washington, but then delivered a 3.04 ERA over 83 innings for the O’s last season, starting 17 of 22 games.
It is possible a pitching-needy team might put in a claim on Voth, as experienced arms are harder to come by at this point in the season, even if Voth’s 2023 numbers haven’t been up to par. If he clears waivers, he could reject an outright assignment and elect free agency since he has over three years of service time. But since he has less than five years of service, he would have to forfeit his remaining salary in order to exercise that right. The O’s signed Voth to an arbitration-avoiding $1.85MM salary for 2023 and the deal contains a $2.45MM club option for 2024 that looks likely to be declined. If Voth isn’t in the Orioles’ plans for 2024 anyway, Baltimore might choose to release him if he clears waivers, though keeping Voth as extra depth at Triple-A is also a logical move for a team in pennant contention.
Hicks return after missing a little more than two weeks due to a lower back strain. Speaking of career revivals in Baltimore, Hicks has hit .261/.355/.440 in 155 plate appearances since signing with the O’s in late May — a big improvement over the underwhelming numbers Hicks posted in his final three seasons with the Yankees. Unfortunately, the injury bug has followed Hicks to his new team, as he has played in just one game since July 24 due to both his back problem and an earlier hamstring injury that also necessitated an IL trip.
Hicks will step back into the Orioles’ outfield/DH mix, and Cowser will head back to Triple-A to await his next taste of the majors. One of the Orioles’ top prospects and the fifth overall pick of the 2021 draft, Cowser has been crushing minor league pitching but has only a .433 OPS over his first 77 PA at the MLB level.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s Unusual, Replacement-Level Season
The Blue Jays are 1.5 games behind the Rangers for the last AL wild card berth, so it remains quite possible that Toronto could still end up as part of the postseason bracket. However, simply squeaking into the playoffs wasn’t at all what the Jays envisioned when spending roughly $215MM (a club record) in payroll and surpassing the luxury tax threshold for the first time, as the team fully expected to be contending for a World Series title.
Alek Manoah‘s extreme struggles and a lack of bench depth have contributed to the Jays’ underwhelming season, yet the biggest culprit has been a very up-and-down offense. Though the Blue Jays are actually among the league’s best in getting hits and getting on base, they rank middle of the pack in runs due to an inability to consistently drive in runners in scoring position. Beyond this specific flaw, the Jays have also gotten disappointing years at the plate from several regulars, and while Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has still been above average, his oddity of a season has been pretty symbolic of Toronto’s 2023 campaign as a whole.
“Above average” production and a 112 wRC+ is a perfectly respectable year for most players, yet for Guerrero, it stands out as a red flag. When that good (.264/.337/.432 with 20 homers over 579 plate appearances) but unspectacular offense is paired with a subpar defensive season, Guerrero has only 0.4 fWAR — among all qualified players in baseball, only 16 players have a lower fWAR than Guerrero’s modest total.
It is an eye-opening statistic, since for all of the money the Blue Jays have invested in building their roster, the team’s plans have been built around the assumption of excellent production from homegrown stars Guerrero and Bo Bichette. While Bichette has mostly lived up to that billing and has been Toronto’s best player this season, Guerrero suddenly becoming barely a replacement-level player has been a big setback for the Jays.
And yet, a glimpse at Guerrero’s Statcast page would make one think that he is again an MVP candidate. Guerrero ranks in at least the 89th percentile in such key categories as strikeout rate, hard contact, barrels, expected batting average, expected on-base percentage, expected slugging percentage, exit velocity, and xwOBA. In fact, that latter statistic hints that Guerrero’s relative struggles this season have been due to horrid luck. No qualified player in baseball has a larger gap between their xwOBA and wOBA than Guerrero, whose elite .379 xwOBA has resulted in a much more modest .332 wOBA.
The sea of red on Guerrero’s Statcast page seemingly indicates that a turn-around is imminent or almost inevitable, and yet as the calendar has now reached September, the first baseman has still yet to get hot for any extended period of time. Guerrero’s best production came early in the season with an .885 OPS over 127 PA in March and April, but he has hit only .245/.318/.397 over 434 PA since May 5.
Hailed as a future cornerstone superstar and the game’s best prospect during his time in Toronto’s farm system, Guerrero seemed well on his way to living up to the hype with his sensational 2021 campaign. Guerrero hit .311/.401/.601 with 48 homers over 698 plate appearances, and likely would’ve won AL MVP honors if it hadn’t been for Shohei Ohtani‘s legendary two-way performance.
Rather than build on that big season, Guerrero took a relative step backwards in 2022, hitting .274/.339/.480 with 32 homers over 706 PA. While not exactly a cause for concern considering that a 132+ wRC is still outstanding, Guerrero’s 2022 numbers revealed some issues that have become larger issues in 2023. For one, Guerrero’s chase rates and chase contact rates have been well below average in 2022-23, as pitchers have learned that Guerrero is prone to swinging at pitches outside the zone with less-than-stellar results.
While Guerrero doesn’t strike out much, his tendency to chase has led to a lot of his hard-hit balls staying on the ground. Guerrero has a 47.5% grounder rate this season, and an even 50% grounder rate since the start of the 2022 season — the eighth-highest among qualified hitters in that span. Between these grounders, Guerrero’s below-average speed, and a .285 BABIP in 2022-23, it perhaps isn’t surprising that Guerrero has hit into 46 double plays since Opening Day 2022, tied for the most of any player in the league.
Guerrero has always had pretty high groundball rates over his five MLB seasons, yet in 2021, his career-best 36.5% fly ball rate resulted in that big 48-homer year. He has only a 31.9% fly ball rate in the two seasons since, with rather a stark dropoff in overall power. The first baseman’s Isolated Power metric has gone from .290 in 2021 to .205 last season to .169 this season.
As much as 2021 seemed like the first taste of what Guerrero was “supposed to be” as a budding superstar, it also stands out as an outlier within Guerrero’s five Major League seasons. It is also worth noting that the 2021 season was also an outlier for the Blue Jays in general, as COVID-related border restrictions kept the team from actually playing in Toronto until the end of July. Guerrero still had a .935 OPS in 152 PA at Rogers Centre in 2021, though even that impressive total paled in comparison to his numbers at the Blue Jays’ other two home ballparks that season — a 1.418 OPS in 96 PA at the Jays’ spring complex in Dunedin, or his 1.180 OPS in 98 PA at Buffalo’s Sahlen Field.
Since the pandemic also forced the Jays to play in Buffalo during the 60-game 2020 season, Guerrero has only played 241 games at his actual home ballpark in his career, and there is evidence that Guerrero has yet to entirely get comfortable at Rogers Centre. Guerrero has hit .258/.327/.448 over 1024 career PA in Toronto, but his home/road splits have been unusually drastic this season. Guerrero has only a .691 OPS at Rogers Centre in 2023, as compared to a much more respectable .837 OPS in road games.
The altered dimensions and wall sizes at Rogers Centre this season seems to have had some impact on overall offense, as Statcast’s Park Factor calculations rank Toronto as a slightly below-average hitting environment this season after years of being seen as a park that generally favors hitters. Of course, there are some on-field factors that go into this calculation, as the reduced offense might have less to do with the ballpark renovations than how the Jays have had a strong defense and good pitching staff this season, or their own lineup’s lack of production. And, since several other Blue Jays batters are hitting quite well at Rogers Centre, it is hard to pinpoint why Guerrero in particular is struggling so much in his home ballpark.
Beyond offense, Guerrero also hasn’t been helping his cause on defense. Public defensive metrics (-8 Defensive Runs Saved, -0.3 UZR/150, -14 Outs Above Average) are very down on his glovework, which represents a step back after Guerrero had seemingly been improving as a first baseman in past seasons. The public metrics have always been somewhat split on Guerrero’s defense, yet DRS gave him plus grades in both 2021 and 2022, while he had a +2.5 UZR/150 in 2021.
Given that he is close to competing his fifth MLB season, it is still almost a surprise to remember that Guerrero won’t turn 25 years old until March, and his prime years might well still be ahead of him. Of course, this is small consolation to a team built to win right now, and Guerrero’s 2023 season also creates some new questions about his status as a long-term building block. He is arbitration-controlled for two more seasons and will be due a raise on his $14.5MM salary in 2023, with his early-career success and Super Two status combining to give the first baseman some hefty paydays throughout his arb years.
The question of whether the Blue Jays will sign Guerrero and/or Bichette (or neither) to long-term contract extensions has been a lingering question for years, yet since Bichette is also controlled through 2025, it isn’t necessarily a question the Jays have to face just yet. However, Guerrero’s 2023 performance is far from the ideal for a franchise player, and as that huge 2021 season gets further in the rearview mirror, the Blue Jays might still not know exactly what they have in Guerrero.
A big September would go a long way towards salvaging this season from a personal perspective and a team perspective if Guerrero can finally break out and carry the Jays into the playoffs. But, after what has basically been a four-month slump, time is running out for Guerrero to adjust and turn his superb advanced metrics into better real-world results.
The Padres’ Underrated Team MVP
Not much has gone right for the Padres in 2023. They entered this year as the pre-season favorites for the NL West title, looking as though they were ready to finally assert themselves as the big dog in the National League and dethrone the Dodgers, who have resided comfortable at the front of the pack for most of the past decade. They signed Xander Bogaerts to an 11-year contract before extending Yu Darvish, Jake Cronenworth, and Manny Machado on big money deals of their own, signalling they were all-in with the team that had traded for Juan Soto and Josh Hader at 2022’s trade deadline. With Fernando Tatis Jr.‘s return to the baseball diamond on the horizon, the future looked bright in San Diego.
Needless to say, things have not gone as planned this season. With a 63-73 record, the Padres are ten games under .500 and in fourth place in the NL West, behind not only the division-leading Dodgers but also both the Giants and Diamondbacks. LA has a stranglehold on the division title at this point, but both San Francisco and Arizona have solid odds at a Wild Card, per Fangraphs: 58.5% and 43.6%, respectively. The Padres, meanwhile, are all but eliminated from postseason contention this year with just a 0.6% chance at a Wild Card berth.
With the notable exceptions of Soto and Hader, the club’s expected stars have faltered this year: Darvish, Bogaerts, Cronenworth and Machado have all had down years to varying degrees after signing those big money deals in the offseason, while Tatis hasn’t looked like the superstar he once seemed to be and right-hander Joe Musgrove has spent much of the season on the injured list. With the exception of lefty Blake Snell, the club’s success stories have largely come by way of their more unheralded players: Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha have both looked like absolute heists after being plucked from free agency to fill out the rotation, while a catching tandem of post-hype youngster Luis Campusano and minor league addition Gary Sanchez has been quite impressive.
Given that, perhaps it’s no surprise that the team’s MVP isn’t one of their many nine-figure contracts, their shutdown closer, or even Soto and his perennial .400 OBP. Instead, it’s infielder Ha-Seong Kim, who has followed up a major step forward in 2022 with yet another step forward this year to become one of the best infielders in the sport.
Kim first broke into the majors with the Padres back in 2021, after signing a four-year, $28MM deal with the Padres to come over to MLB from the KBO. Kim had been an elite player during his time in Korea, slashing .294/.373/.493 across 7 seasons with the Kiwoom Heroes. He posted a particularly strong platform season before heading overseas, with a .306/.397/.524 slash line in his final season with the Heroes. Unfortunately, he didn’t come particularly close to living up to that promise during his age-25 campaign, his first as a big leaguer. While he played strong defense at second and third base in addition to his home position of shortstop, he posted a meager 72 wRC+, hitting just .202/.270/.352 with a 23.8% strikeout rate, a massive jump from the 10.9% figure he posted in his final year in Korea.
While Kim played in 117 games with San Diego in 2021, he was largely a part-time player, accumulating just 298 plate appearances. Things changed for the youngster in 2022, however. Between the injuries and PED suspension that plagued Tatis, the club’s regular shortstop at the time, Kim was given a full season’s runway at shortstop, and he made the most of it. His offense improved from nearly 30% below league average to slightly above in 2022 as he slashed .251/.325/.383 with a wRC+ of 106. That offensive performance combined with his stellar defense at shortstop and a reduced 17.2% strikeout rate allowed Kim to finish the season with 3.8 fWAR, 11th in the majors among shortstops and not far off from the likes of Nico Hoerner and Carlos Correa.
Kim’s major step forward in 2022 was not enough to guarantee him the everyday shortstop role headed into 2023, however. While Tatis was moved to the outfield during his absence, the club signed Bogaerts to play shortstop, leaving Kim to slide over to second base as Cronenworth moved to cover first following the departure of Josh Bell. While he has spent time elsewhere in the infield while covering for Machado and Bogaerts, over two thirds of Kim’s innings have come at the keystone, where he’s flourished defensively. Kim sports +7 Outs Above Average this season, on par with the likes of Ryan McMahon and Andres Gimenez. Meanwhile, he ranks tied for seventh in the majors with Gimenez on the DRS leaderboard with a sensational +16 figure.
Perhaps even more impressive than Kim’s glovework is the leap forward he’s made on offense. While he made himself a slightly above-average offensive contributor in 2022, he’s made himself an All-Star caliber bat in 2023 with a .277/.367/.434 slash line in 527 trips to the plate this season. While his 18.6% strikeout rate in 2023 is slightly higher than last year’s figure, he’s more than compensated by taking more walks, allowing his 8.8% figure from last season to shoot up to 12.1%, top 20 in the majors. Of the nineteen players with higher walk rates, only Mookie Betts, Alex Bregman, and Adley Rutschman strike out less than Kim, putting him in elite territory when it comes to plate discipline. On top of this improved discipline, Kim has turned himself into a major asset on the basepaths this year, swiping 29 bases in 37 attempts.
Between his defensive prowess and greatly improved offense, Kim has made himself not only the Padres’ team MVP, but one of the most valuable players in the National League. His 4.6 fWAR this season is sixth in the NL, sandwiched between Rookie of the Year favorite Corbin Carroll and two-time All Star Matt Olson. When looking at Baseball Reference WAR, Kim is only eclipsed by Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Ronald Acuna Jr. among NL players.
While Kim’s standout season hasn’t saved the Padres this year, the 27-year-old could still provide impact for a future playoff chase given that he’s under contract for just $8MM next season. With his contract ending in a mutual option worth $8MM for 2025, Kim seems likely to join Soto in departing for free agency following the 2024 campaign barring an extension. Whether the Padres decide to retool for the future and field offers on their pair of star free-agents-to-be or go all-in for the 2024 season while the duo are still under contract, Kim is a clear player to watch even as the majority of eyes will be focused on Soto’s potential final season in San Diego and impending free agency following the 2024 season.