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Blue Jays Interested In Brandon Nimmo

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The Blue Jays subtracted from their outfield mix earlier today when they dealt Teoscar Hernandez to the Mariners. In the wake of that deal, they are now showing interest in adding free agent Brandon Nimmo, according to Jon Morosi of MLB.com.

Toronto’s general manager Ross Atkins spoke with members of the media on a conference call after the deal and, though he didn’t mention Nimmo by name, nothing he said would seem to preclude the club from such a bold move. “We’re in a better position to do so now from a resource and from a playing time and recruitment standpoint,” Atkins tells Shi Davidi of Sportsnet on the subject of adding a free agent outfielder. One option that’s on the table is acquiring a center fielder and pushing George Springer over the now-vacated right field position. “I know George will be open to it,” Atkins tells Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.

If the Blue Jays are indeed interested in adding a free agent center fielder, they could hardly do better than Nimmo. Excluding Aaron Judge since he’s more of a right fielder, Nimmo is the clear top option available on the center field market. Then it’s a steep drop down to the next tier, consisting of veterans coming off injury-plagued seasons such as Kevin Kiermaier and Adam Duvall.

Having spent his entire career with the Mets thus far, Nimmo is a quality hitter, primarily for his ability to get on base. His career walk rate is 13.6%, well above the 2022 league average of 8.2%. That’s helped him produce a batting line of .269/.385/.441 for a wRC+ of 134, indicating he’s been 34% above league average in his time in the majors. He’s also been generally regarded as a quality outfielder, though perhaps not elite. Defensive Runs Saved gave him a 5 last year but a -3 in 2022. Ultimate Zone Rating had him at 3.4 in 2021 but -0.4 this year. Outs Above Average, however, had him at a 3 last year and a 6 this year.

Given that excellent production and his ability to also play the corners, Nimmo would likely be able to upgrade the outfield of the majority of teams around the league. It’s possible that Nimmo’s left-handed bat makes him extra appealing to the Blue Jays given their lineup is predominantly right-handed, though that wasn’t really a problem for them in 2022. Against right-handed pitching this year, the club collectively hit .266/.329/.432. That amounts to a 118 wRC+, indicating they were 18% above league average. Only the Dodgers at 122 wRC+ and Mets at 119 wRC+ were better against northpaws, which doesn’t suggest the club needs to make a left-handed bat a specific target.

Regardless, there’s an argument to moving Springer out of center field and into a corner, where the rigors of the position are generally agreed to be lesser. Springer is now 33, more than three years older than Nimmo, who is 29 and turning 30 in March. He’s also dealt with his fair share of injuries since joining the Blue Jays, only getting into 211 total games over the past two years. He’ll recovering from elbow surgery this offseason but is expected to be recovered in time for Spring Training. The advanced defensive metrics have him hovering around average in recent years, not terribly dissimilar to Nimmo. Of course, Nimmo has also dealt with injuries throughout his career, but his only significant absence of the past three seasons was a two-month stay on the IL in 2021 due to a left index finger contusion.

Since the Blue Jays aren’t the only team that could benefit from Nimmo’s skills, they will have competition and he won’t be cheap. The Mets are already known to be interested in bringing him back to Queens. MLBTR recently predicted a contract of $110MM over five years, which works out to $22MM per season. After today’s trade, Roster Resource puts Toronto’s 2023 payroll at $176MM. That means they’re already on track for an increase over last year’s franchise record Opening Day figure of $171MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. A few non-tenders could bump that down a hair but it still means that the club will have to spend into uncharted territory, or make a sizable subtraction, to make a significant free agent splash. Though they upgraded their bullpen today by acquiring Erik Swanson, they likely still need to do some work on the rotation as well. Regardless of where the final number ends up, Atkins seems to think they have the funds necessary to address their needs. He told Nicholson-Smith that today’s trade added payroll flexibility but “we didn’t need it.”

Braves Unlikely To Pursue Big Name Shortstops If Swanson Signs Elsewhere

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The Braves have had more success in extending young, core players than any team in recent memory, but for a second straight offseason they’re facing the potential departure of a longtime regular who’s helped to anchor the infield. Dansby Swanson, like Freddie Freeman before him, reached the open market without signing an extension, has rejected a qualifying offer and is now free to field interest from the game’s other 29 teams.

Atlanta reportedly offered Swanson an extension in the neighborhood of $100MM at some point over the course of the season, but the widespread expectation is for him to outpace that guarantee by a comfortable margin. (MLBTR predicted a seven-year, $154MM contract on last week’s Top 50 free agent list.) One of the biggest questions on the minds of Braves fans is just what the team will do at shortstop. Can Swanson be retained? And, if not, where does the team turn? The market offers a trio of high-end alternatives in the form of Trea Turner, Carlos Correa and Xander Bogaerts.

As Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports, however, it’s unlikely that the Braves will make a legitimate play to sign any of the big free-agent shortstops other than Swanson. President of baseball ops Alex Anthopoulos went out of his way to mention Vaughn Grissom and Orlando Arcia as in-house alternatives at last week’s GM Meetings, and Rosenthal adds that the Braves are generally reluctant to add a major salary that “takes up too high a percentage of their payroll” — including oft-speculated fit Jacob deGrom.

Braves fans were understandably heartened by CEO Terry McGuirk’s comments about Atlanta growing to have one of the game’s five largest payrolls, but what McGuirk didn’t stress was just how close the Braves already are to reaching that territory before making a single addition. Last month at MLBTR, I pointed out that for the Braves to make even one high-priced acquisition, they’d need to exceed the luxury-tax threshold; making a pair of big-name additions — or signing one premier free agent and, say, extending Max Fried — could shatter the threshold and send the team barreling into at least the second tier of luxury penalization.

As things currently stand, Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez projects the Braves to be less than $5MM away from tier one of the luxury tax . They’d be a first-time luxury payor, so the penalty on the first $20MM by which they cross that threshold would “only” be 20%. The penalty on the next $20MM would jump to a 32% tax.

We’ll get back to the shortstop quandary, but it’s worth digressing and taking a deeper look at just what the luxury tax realities might look like for the Braves.

To put this into more specific context, we can use deGrom as an example. Many believe that the four-time All-Star and two-time Cy Young winner could secure an average annual value of $40MM or more this winter. A $40MM AAV on deGrom would push the Braves’ luxury-tax bill up into the $268MM range — an overage of roughly $35MM. The 20% tax on that first $20MM would come out to $4MM, and the 32% tax they’d be paying on the next $15MM would be another $4.8MM. So to sign deGrom for a $40MM AAV, the Braves would effectively need to be willing to pay $48.8MM in total — at least for the upcoming season. With Justin Verlander seeking a deal comparable to that of Max Scherzer, this can all be applied to him as well.

It’s a similar, but not quite so extreme case with Swanson. Using the $22MM AAV on MLBTR’s predicted contract as an example, Swanson would push the Braves a bit more than $17MM over the luxury tax on his own. That’d make our predicted $22MM AAV more akin to paying $25.4MM this season. And, of course, signing Swanson at that rate would mean that any subsequent salary additions of note would then push the Braves into the second tier of penalization, subjecting them to the same 32% rate mentioned in the deGrom example.

The other wrinkle is that any such signing would further cause the team’s luxury bill to balloon in future seasons. The Braves already have about $135MM of luxury obligations on their 2024 payroll, two years down the road, and that doesn’t include potential club option pickups for veterans like Charlie Morton, Kirby Yates and Collin McHugh — nor does it include arbitration salaries for Fried, A.J. Minter and Kyle Wright. Paying the luxury tax for consecutive seasons would cause those rates of penalization also increase (30% in tier one, 42% in tier two, etc.).

Certainly, there are ways for the Braves to lower their current luxury tab and provide further breathing room, though the path to doing so is not an easy one. There’s little hope of finding a team willing to cover even a small portion of the $36MM still owed to Marcell Ozuna through 2024. Atlanta would probably welcome the opportunity to shed the $9MM owed to Eddie Rosario in 2023, but that’s also far easier said than done after he hit .212/.259/.328 in the first season of a two-year, $18MM contract. One recent source of Twitter speculation among fans — a possible trade of Ronald Acuna Jr. — is not something the Braves are considering, per Rosenthal.

Lengthy digression aside, let’s get back to the shortstop question. If, as Rosenthal suggests, the team is likely to be “out of the picture” for any of Correa, Turner or Bogaerts in the event of a Swanson departure, what might that mean for their 2023 outlook at shortstop?

Grissom and Arcia are in-house candidates, as alluded to by Anthopoulos, but Grissom’s bat wilted after a torrid start to his rookie season in 2022. He still finished with a terrific .291/.353/.440 batting line in 156 plate appearances, but Grissom slashed .420/.463/.660 in his first 54 plate appearances and just .220/.294/.319 over his final 102 trips to the plate. He also skipped Triple-A entirely on his way to the Majors, and scouting opinions on his long-term outlook at shortstop vary. Arcia, once one of the game’s top-ranked prospects, was a roughly league-average hitter in a part-time role last year but carries a .233/.288/.356 slash (70 wRC+) over the past five years.

The free-agent market has some modest stopgaps who could help ease Grissom into the full-time role at shortstop. Elvis Andrus was released by the A’s over the summer, but that was more about preventing his 2023 vesting option from kicking in than about his play. He had a strong finish after signing with the White Sox and hit a combined .249/.303/.404 with 17 homers and 18 steals between the two clubs. Jose Iglesias keeps hitting for average and rarely striking out — .291/.325/.408, 13.1% strikeout rate since 2019 — but defensive metrics have soured on the soon-to-be 33-year-old over the past two seasons. Old friend Andrelton Simmons is a free agent, too, but he’s batted just .216/.277/.261 in 536 plate appearances since Opening Day 2021.

None of those free-agent options are going to inspire Braves fans much — save for the possible nostalgia of a Simmons reunion — but they highlight the fact that it’s a thin crop beyond the “Big Four.” The trade market, then, could be a more palatable approach for Anthopoulos to explore. Cleveland’s Amed Rosario is a clear trade candidate with just a year to go before free agency and a mounting (by the Guardians’ standards) price tag. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $9MM next year, and a low-payroll Guardians club that’s deep in MLB-ready middle infield prospects could look to cash in on the 27-year-old, as I recently explored at greater length.

The Yankees figure to be open to moving on from Isiah Kiner-Falefa now that Oswald Peraza is ready for a look in the Majors. The Reds would likely be open to dealing Kyle Farmer, with whom Anthopoulos is surely familiar dating back to his Dodgers days. Arizona’s Nick Ahmed and St. Louis’ Paul DeJong are veteran alternatives who could be had for pennies on the dollar, as the D-backs and Cardinals would surely welcome the chance to just shed some of the respective $10MM and $11MM remaining on their contracts. Both are buy-low options, at best, coming off poor showings in recent seasons. Any of Kevin Newman (Pirates), Nicky Lopez (Royals) or the oft-injured Adalberto Mondesi (Royals) could likely be had in a deal, but each has some obvious red flags.

To be clear, there’s no indication that the Braves plan to simply stand pat this winter. A reunion with Swanson remains eminently plausible, even if previous extension attempts with his representatives — the same agents who represent Freeman, for what it’s worth — have yet to bear fruit. It’d push the Braves into luxury territory for the first time in franchise history, but based on McGuirk’s comments about a potential top-five payroll club, that’s something on which the front office will have a green light, at least with regard to Swanson.

What does seems far less likely is a lavish spending spree that sees the Braves make multiple marquee splashes on the free-agent market. If Swanson does sign elsewhere, it’s the bulk of the Braves’ heavy lifting may very well come via the trade market and the middle tiers of the free-agent market.

Royals Release Sebastian Rivero

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The Royals announced Wednesday that they’ve requested unconditional release waivers on catcher Sebastian Rivero, whom they designated for assignment last week. He’d be a free agent upon clearing.

Being placed on release waivers surely isn’t how Rivero wanted to spend his 24th birthday, but that’s the position in which he finds himself. The Venezuelan-born backstop has appeared briefly in each of the past two big league seasons with the Royals but struggled to a .167/.236/.197 batting line in a tiny sample of 73 plate appearances. Rivero has had more success in Triple-A, albeit in a similarly small number of plate appearances. In 171 trips to the plate there, he’s slashed .266/.322/.380.

Rivero was optioned to the minors the maximum five times during the course of the 2022 season, plus another three times in 2021. The up-and-down nature of his time with the Royals over the past two seasons, coupled with the canceled 2020 minor league season, have played a role in limiting his overall experience in the upper minors. Despite debuting as a teenager back in 2016, Rivero has appeared in just 383 games as a professional. He sports an above-average 29% caught-stealing rate but has posted sub-par framing marks in the minors, per Baseball Prospectus. He’ll likely land with a team in need of some catching depth on a minor league deal this offseason.

Angels Sign Tyler Anderson

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The Angels have made a notable addition to their starting staff, announcing agreement Wednesday on a three-year contract with free-agent lefty Tyler Anderson. It’s reportedly a $39MM guarantee with $13MM salaries paid out annually. Anderson had received a one-year, $19.65MM qualifying offer, but his deal with the Halos means he’s turning that down for a more lucrative pact. Anderson is represented by the Beverly Hills Sports Council.

Tyler Anderson

Anderson, 33 in December, turned in a career-best season with the Dodgers in 2022, pitching to a 2.57 ERA in a career-high 178 2/3 innings. Along the way, he punched out 19.5% of his opponents against a 4.8% walk rate and 40.1% ground-ball rate.

A former first-round pick of the Rockies (No. 20 overall, in 2011), Anderson showed promise as a rookie in 2016 (3.54 ERA in 114 1/3 innings) before beginning to struggle at Coors Field and eventually incurring a fairly serious knee injury that derailed some of his prime years. Anderson was diagnosed with a chondral defect in the cartilage of his left knee, which sidelined him for the better part of a year and led to the end of his tenure with the Rockies.

Since leaving Colorado, Anderson’s climb back to big league relevance has been impressive, to say the least. Signed to a one-year, make-good deal by the Giants heading into 2020, Anderson did just that in the Covid-shortened season. A 4.37 ERA in 11 starts/13 total appearances wasn’t exactly eye-popping, but it earned him another big league deal with the Pirates the following season. Both the Phillies and Mariners went hard after Anderson at the ’21 trade deadline, with the lefty ultimately landing in Seattle. His 31 starts of roughly league-average pitching netted him a late one-year deal with the Dodgers.

As they so frequently do, the Dodgers found a way to coax a new level of performance out of Anderson in 2022. Anderson didn’t overhaul his pitch repertoire but did rely more heavily on his changeup than he has in all but the shortened 2020 season. R.J. Anderson of CBS Sports points out that Anderson also abandoned a changeup grip he’d been using in recent years and went back to an old grip that wound up generating more drop and limiting hard contact more effectively than ever before. Anderson ranked in the 98th percentile of MLB pitchers in terms of average exit velocity and opponents’ hard-hit rate, and he sat in the 95th percentile in terms of opponents’ chase rate on pitches off the plate.

It’ll now be incumbent upon the Angels to help Anderson sustain the 2022 version of himself even as he pitches into his mid-30s. It’s the first multi-year contract of Anderson’s career, and, more surprising, the first multi-year contract the Angels have given out to a free-agent starting pitcher since signing Joe Blanton ten years and three general managers ago. Owner Arte Moreno has seemingly been averse to multi-year pacts for free agent starters in all but a few special cases — the Halos pursued Gerrit Cole, for instance — and it’ll be Anderson who bucks that trend at a time when Moreno is exploring a potential sale of the franchise. It’s also the second straight winter in which Moreno and general manager Perry Minasian have jumped the market to sign a pitcher who’d received a qualifying offer; the Angels signed Noah Syndergaard to a one-year, $21MM contract last year before his QO decision was formally due.

Anderson will step into a rotation that’s fronted by two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani, giving manager Phil Nevin a fourth lefty to follow his ace in the rotation. The Angels’ trio of Patrick Sandoval, Reid Detmers and Jose Suarez enjoyed, in somewhat under-the-radar fashion, a very productive 2022 season.

Adding Anderson gives the Angels a strong quintet on which to lean, and the Halos have a handful of in-house options to round out a six-man rotation if they prefer to get Ohtani an extra day of rest. Righties Chase Silseth, Griffin Canning, Chris Rodriguez, Janson Junk, Touki Toussaint and Davis Daniel are all on the 40-man roster, as are southpaws Tucker Davidson, Jhonathan Diaz and Kenny Rosenberg. That certainly doesn’t preclude further additions, and it’s possible that some of those depth options won’t even last the entire offseason on the 40-man roster.

The deal pushes the Halos to a projected $173MM for the 2023 season, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez. For luxury-tax purposes, the Anderson deal pushes the Angels to a projected $187.5MM.

The Angels opened the 2022 season with a franchise-record $188.6MM payroll, so by signing Anderson they’re already vaulting themselves up to about $15MM from their highwater mark. With several holes to fill around the roster — infield, perhaps corner outfield, bullpen — they’re likely ticketed for what will be a third consecutive season of pushing to a new franchise record.

Because the Dodgers paid the luxury tax in 2022, their compensation for losing Anderson will be a pick between the fourth and fifth rounds of next year’s draft. The Angels, meanwhile, as a team that neither received revenue sharing nor paid the luxury tax, will surrender their second-highest draft selection and see their league-allotted international bonus pool reduced by $500K.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported Anderson and the Angels were in agreement. Joel Sherman of the New York Post first reported it was a three-year deal in the $40MM range, while Mark Feinsand of MLB.com specified the $39MM guarantee. Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reported the even annual salary disbursement.

Crane: Justin Verlander Seeking Deal Similar To Max Scherzer’s

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Justin Verlander is a free agent without much precedent. A favorite to claim his third career Cy Young award this evening, he’s back on the open market after bypassing a $25MM player option with the Astros.

Verlander’s a fascinating case for teams. He turns 40 years old in February, which’ll certainly cap the length of his next deal. Yet he’s still among the top handful of pitchers in the sport, which sets him up for one of the largest per-year salaries in MLB history. Astros owner Jim Crane — who has taken a very hands-on role in the Houston front office and played a key role in bringing Verlander back last winter — told Brian McTaggart of MLB.com that Verlander has looked to last winter’s biggest free agent pitching contract as precedent. His former teammate Max Scherzer inked a three-year, $130MM guarantee with the Mets — a deal that also allowed him to opt out after the 2023 season.

“I know him well, so we’ve been pretty candid,” Crane told McTaggart. “He’s looking at the comp, which I think there’s only one or two. … J.V.’s probably got a few years left, and he wants to make the most of it. I think he’s going to test the market on that.”

The Scherzer deal indeed seems the closest comparison to Verlander, although their situations aren’t perfectly analogous. While both are all-time great pitchers still pitching near the top of their games deeper into their careers, a three-year bet on Scherzer was probably easier for a team to stomach than that same term for Verlander. Scherzer signed in advance of his age-37 season, while the latter will be three years older at the start of his next contract. Verlander’s two years removed from a Tommy John procedure that cost him almost all of the 2020-21 campaigns, but he’s bounced back to pitch at pre-surgery levels this year. Scherzer had avoided any injury of that magnitude in the past decade, topping 170 innings in every full season since 2008 before this year.

While that seems to tip things in Scherzer’s favor, their pure performance track records are mostly without complaint. Verlander had a 1.75 ERA across 175 innings this past season; Scherzer posted a 2.46 mark in 2021. The latter missed more bats, striking out 34.1% of opponents against Verlander’s 27.8% mark. Fanning just under 28% of opponents is still excellent for a starting pitcher, though, and Verlander maintained top-tier control while sitting in the mid-90s with his fastball.

To no one’s surprise, Crane suggested the Astros hope to bring Verlander back. However, there appears to be a notable gap between the two sides on contract terms right now. While Crane didn’t specify the lengths the Astros are willing to go to retain the nine-time All-Star, Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reports Crane has thus far been reluctant to go past a two-year guarantee in the $60MM – $70MM range. That’s certainly not to say the Houston owner couldn’t later raise the offer, but Rome characterizes that as a rough line the team has set at present and suggests the Astros are very unlikely to offer a third guaranteed year.

Whether another team would be willing to go three years is one of the most interesting storylines of the offseason, and MLBTR forecasts Verlander for a three-year, $120MM guarantee. In any event, it doesn’t seem as if the Astros and Verlander are going to come to any agreement within the first few days of the offseason. The right-hander has spoken a number of times about his respect for Crane and affinity for the organization generally, but the owner’s comments don’t suggest the future Hall of Famer is looking to take a notable discount to stick around for a fifth full season with the defending World Series champs.

One could argue the Astros are better off letting Verlander walk and reallocating their spending capacity. They’re sure to face competition from a number of big-market, win-now teams. Clubs like the Yankees, Dodgers, Mets and Phillies figure to check in; Andy Martino of SNY wrote yesterday the Mets have discussed internally the possibility of a Verlander pursuit, presumably as an alternative if Jacob deGrom departs in free agency.

Houston is one of the sport’s biggest spenders themselves, and they don’t figure to be facing acute budgetary limitations coming off a championship. Yet Rome points out the Astros under Crane have tended to shy away from long-term free agent commitments. They also have questions at first base, at one of left field or designated hitter (depending on the team’s plans for Yordan Alvarez) and, to a lesser extent, in the bullpen.

Roster Resource projects their 2023 commitments just under $164MM with a luxury tax number around $179MM. Topping this year’s approximate $174MM Opening Day payroll feels like a given, and they’re around $54MM away from the $233MM base luxury tax threshold. Houston could certainly make a Verlander deal work, but an annual salary approaching or topping the $43.333MM Scherzer secured would push them fairly close to CBT territory without addressing anywhere else on the roster. Even if Verlander departs, a rotation of Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers Jr., Luis Garcia, José Urquidy and top prospect Hunter Brown (plus any external additions) would be among the best in the sport.

As far those other needs go, Crane tells McTaggart he’s interested in bringing back Yuli Gurriel at first base. He was less committal on Michael Brantley, whom Crane said could need to wait until March until there’s clarity on his recovery from this summer’s right shoulder surgery. Crane also pointed to a desire to add a left-handed bullpen arm, an obvious question after the team bought out Will Smith at the start of the offseason. He didn’t speak on free agent catcher/DH Willson Contreras, to whom the club has previously been linked, but Rome reports that Houston indeed has “strong interest” in the former Cubs backstop.

Bryce Harper To Undergo Elbow Surgery Next Week

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Phillies star Bryce Harper will undergo elbow surgery to repair his damaged ulnar collateral ligament next Wednesday, president of baseball operation Dave Dombrowski announced today (Twitter link via Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer). Imaging hasn’t conclusively determined whether Harper will require a full Tommy John surgery (i.e. ligament replacement) or whether an internal brace procedure could suffice, so the team won’t have a timeline until the surgery is performed.

Harper was diagnosed with a UCL tear back in May but was able to continue his 2022 season as the Phillies’ primary designated hitter. Position players who sustain UCL tears are often able to continue hitting, but throwing is obviously not an option with such an injury. Even in the event of a full Tommy John surgery, it should be noted that Harper could very likely return to the field as a DH for a notable portion of the 2023 season.

Shohei Ohtani, for instance, spent only the first five weeks or so of the 2019 season on the injured list before returning as a designated hitter. His surgery was performed in early October of 2018 — some seven weeks earlier in the offseason than Harper will go under the knife. Every player’s rehab is different, of course, but a summer return would seem plausible even in the worst-case scenario for Harper. If an internal brace procedure is sufficient, Harper could conceivably return in even shorter order.

Even with the damaged UCL, Harper remained a force in the middle of the Phillies’ lineup. Harper homered in three consecutive games following the diagnosis and batted .295/.381/.510 the rest of the way after learning of the tear. A broken thumb sustained when he was hit by a pitch sidelined him for a notable portion of the summer, but neither injury could prevent Harper from mashing when healthy enough to play. His postseason teetered on historic, as Harper slashed .349/.414/.746 with six home runs and seven doubles in just 71 plate appearances. His NLCS-winning home run against the Padres will forever be etched in Phillies lore.

Harper  is still only four years into the 13-year, $330MM contract he signed as a free agent prior to the 2019 season, but to this point it’s hard to call the contract anything other than a roaring success. Since putting pen to paper and making Philadelphia his long-term home, Harper has batted a combined .282/.384/.546 (not including this year’s postseason exploits), won an NL MVP Award and helped bring the Phillies back to the postseason for the first time since 2011. He’s still owed $222MM over the remaining nine years of the deal, though with the typical AAV for premium players now well north of $30MM, that $24.667MM AAV looks like a bargain for Harper.

Blue Jays Trade Teoscar Hernandez To Mariners

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Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto wasted little time making his first big splash on the trade market this offseason, as the Mariners announced Wednesday that they’ve acquired All-Star right fielder Teoscar Hernandez from the Blue Jays in exchange for setup man Erik Swanson and pitching prospect Adam Macko.

Teoscar Hernandez

Hernandez, who turned 30 a month ago, will give the Mariners a heart-of-the-order slugger who’s posted a stout .283/.333/.519 batting line with 73 home runs and 71 doubles through 1337 plate appearances over the past three seasons. Hernandez has been a Statcast darling since the time of his big league debut, regularly posting top-of-the-scale exit velocity and hard-hit rates; that was no different in 2022, when Statcast ranked him in the 94th percentile or better in hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, max exit velocity, barrel rate and expected slugging percentage.

That penchant for elite contact and plus power output from Hernandez comes at something of a cost. While he’s curbed his once-sky-high strikeout totals to an extent, Hernandez still fanned in 28.4% of his plate appearances last season. He got the strikeout rate all the way down to 24.9% in 2021, so there’s perhaps hope for some further gains, but as of right now that number is an outlier with regard to the rest of his career. His walk rate, meanwhile, has steadily clocked in between six and seven percent over the past few seasons — a good bit shy of league average.

Beyond the huge power, Hernandez possesses deceptive speed. He’s only tallied 24 steals (in 32 tries) over the past three seasons, including just six in 2022, but Hernandez’s sprint speed ranks in the 84th percentile of MLB players, per Statcast. With slightly larger bases expected to perhaps spur a bit more running in 2023, Hernandez is among the many players who could conceivably begin to take off with a bit more frequency. Hernandez is also known for having one of the game’s strongest throwing arms. Despite that speed and arm strength, however, he draws consistently below-average grades for his glovework in right field; Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average have pegged him as a negative defender in each of the past four seasons. In 2022, he tallied minus-3 DRS, minus-5 OAA and a minus-3.1 Ultimate Zone Rating.

Even if his speed and arm don’t translate to plus right field defense, Hernandez has been a well above-average all-around player in recent years, when looking at the sum of his parts. Both FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference peg him right at eight wins above replacement in his past 324 games. Those 324 games have come across three seasons, though one was the shortened 2020 campaign. Generally speaking, Hernandez has avoided major injuries. He missed three weeks this season due to an oblique strain and was sidelined in 2021 by a positive Covid test (plus three games on the paternity list). Overall, however, he’s played in 84.3% of his team’s possible games since 2020.

Barring an extension, Hernandez will be a one-year rental for the Mariners — and a relatively pricey one, at that. Hernandez will reach six years of service time in 2023 and become a free agent next winter. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a sizable $14.1MM salary for him this season.

Dipoto said at last week’s GM Meetings that he sought at least one outfield upgrade this winter, if not two. Hernandez should slot into right field alongside center fielder and AL Rookie of the Year Julio Rodriguez, but his presence in Seattle creates some additional questions. The club opted not to make a qualifying offer to Mitch Haniger, for instance, and while Hernandez’s acquisition doesn’t squarely rule out Haniger returning to rotate through the outfield corners and DH, today’s trade inherently makes a reunion feel less likely.

The Mariners will have to determine whether they’re comfortable with a combination of former top prospects Jarred Kelenic, Kyle Lewis and Taylor Trammell in left field. Jesse Winker is another left field/DH option, though as of yesterday, the Mariners were discussing trade packages involving Winker. It’s easy enough to envision that group, with some help from utilitymen Dylan Moore and Sam Haggerty, holding down the fort in the corners and at DH, but further additions shouldn’t be ruled out.

The Mariners, after all, are squarely in win-now mode. And even with Hernandez aboard, they have ample payroll capacity; acquiring Hernandez is an approximate $12.7MM net add to the payroll, as Swanson had been projected by Swartz to be paid $1.4MM. They’re projected by Roster Resource for a $143.5MM payroll following the swap, and that’s a ways shy of the $162MM peak they trotted out in 2018. A return to the playoffs has likely boosted revenue a bit, and MLB has agreed to various lucrative streaming deals that afford each team considerable annual payouts in the five years since that previously established record payroll.

Turning to the Blue Jays’ side of the deal, they’ll simultaneously add a much-needed power arm to the bullpen and shed that aforementioned (and approximate) $12.7MM in payroll. They’re still projected for what would be a franchise-record Opening Day payroll in the $176MM range, but the trade gives them some more flexibility while adding a crucial arm to the relief mix. Swanson, originally acquired by the Mariners in the trade that sent James Paxton to the Yankees, struggled as a starter but has broken out as a powerhouse in the Seattle bullpen.

Erik Swanson

The 3.31 ERA, 24.3% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate Swanson logged in 35 1/3 innings during the 2021 season were a step in that direction, but it wasn’t until this past season that he became a dominant late-inning force. Swanson’s 2022 campaign resulted in 53 2/3 innings of 1.68 ERA ball with a massive 34% strikeout rate against just a 4.9% walk rate. In all, since establishing himself in 2021, Swanson owns a 2.33 ERA in 89 innings of relief — a mark that is largely supported by fielding-independent metrics (2.59 FIP, 2.87 SIERA).

Swanson is an extreme fly-ball pitcher, so some may have concern about his transition from a pitcher-friendly setting at T-Mobile Park to the homer-happy confines of Toronto’s Rogers Centre, but the fact is that very few of the fly-balls he yields are hit with authority. Among the 385 pitchers with at least 80 innings over the past two seasons, Swanson has induced infield pop-ups at the sixth-best rate in MLB.

Swanson was also a batted-ball deity on the mound in 2022, ranking near the top of the league in terms of average exit velocity (98th percentile), hard-hit rate (96th), expected ERA and wOBA (97th), expected slugging percentage (94th), overall strikeout rate (96th) and opponents’ chase rate on pitches off the plate (93rd). He may not be a household name, but for the 2022 season at least, Swanson can lay claim to legitimately being one of MLB’s most dominant relievers.

Unlike Hernandez, who’ll be a free agent next winter, Swanson is a relatively long-term piece for the Blue Jays. With three-plus years of Major League service time under his belt, he’s controllable through the 2025 season. And, because his breakout was of the “late blooming” variety, he didn’t build up the type of long track record that would reward him handsomely in his first trip through the arbitration process. The Jays will almost certainly pay Swanson less over the next three seasons than they’d have paid Hernandez in 2023 alone.

It’s the same timeline to free agency shared by Toronto closer Jordan Romano, who’s also controlled through 2025. Swanson figures to serve as the primary setup option to Romano, though he’ll be joined by veterans Yimi Garcia, Anthony Bass, Adam Cimber and Tim Mayza in what already looks like a deeper and more formidable relief corps.

Also heading to Toronto in the trade is the left-handed Macko, a significant addition to the team’s prospect base. Baseball America and FanGraphs both rated the 21-year-old as Seattle’s eighth-best prospect, touting his curveball as anywhere from a plus pitch (60-grade, FanGraphs) to a plus-plus (70, Baseball America) offering on the 20-80 scale. His fastball is another above-average offering, climbing as high as 98 mph, and his slider gives him the potential for a third average or better pitch.

Injuries — most notably a shoulder issue — and spotty command have been red flags in Macko’s development thus far. He pitched just 38 1/3 frames at High-A in 2022, logging a 3.99 ERA with a massive 35.9% strikeout rate but also a concerning 12% walk rate. It’s a pair of major “ifs,” but if Macko can get healthy and refine his command to even just shy of league average, the potential for a quality big league starter is present. Failing that, the fastball velocity and wipeout breaking pitch have obvious late-inning relief potential. Baseball America’s scouting report on Macko notes that he was one of the Mariners’ most sought-after targets in recent trade talks, too, and the Jays themselves could very well be asked about him in talks with other teams moving forward.

Overall, trading a popular and gregarious middle-of-the-order hitter for a reliever, even an ostensibly excellent one, could be a tough pill for Jays fans to swallow. That said, there’s clear potential to come out ahead in the gambit, as they’ll add three years of a bargain-priced, high-end reliever and a prospect with potential to quickly rise up national rankings with some better luck in the health department. The $12MM+ in payroll savings figures to be reallocated to free-agent pursuits or perhaps to additional targets on the trade market, too, so this will be but one step in a layered process that could ultimately benefit both teams.

As for the Mariners, they’ll add a thunderous bat to the heart of a lineup that also includes Rodriguez, Ty France and Eugenio Suarez. Dipoto and his charges, however, figure to continue to add to the lineup as they seek to take the Mariners beyond the ALDS heights they reached in 2022. Parting with Swanson thins out the bullpen, though Seattle is deep in that regard. Parting with Macko subtracts yet another quality prospect from a farm system that has been depleted, but not emptied, by recent trade activity (Luis Castillo, most notably). That said, even if the M’s can’t extend Hernandez, he’ll be a clear qualifying offer candidate next offseason, so they could potentially recoup a 2024 draft pick in the event that he proves to be a one-and-done case in Seattle. And for the time being, there’s no denying that the team’s 2023 lineup looks decidedly more formidable with Hernandez aboard.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported that Hernandez had been traded to Seattle (Twitter link). TSN’s Scott Mitchell reported that the Jays were getting bullpen help, and Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times first reported the specific names involved.

Tigers Hire Michael Brdar And Keith Beauregard As Hitting Coaches

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The Tigers announced a batch of additions to their coaching staff, including Michael Brdar as major league hitting coach, Keith Beauregard as major league hitting coach, James Rowson as assistant major league hitting coach, Robin Lund as assistant major league pitching coach and Ryne Eubanks as head athletic trainer.

Brdar, 28, has proven to be a popular name for coaching positions in his young career. As a player, he was drafted by the Cardinals in 2017 and got some action at rookie ball that year. That was the end of his playing days, with Brdar then joining the University of Michigan, where he played college ball, as a coach. He followed that up by getting hired as the Giants’ minor league hitting coordinator.

One year ago, he was hired away from the Giants by the Padres, who made him hitting coach at the major league level. After one season in San Diego, he’ll now head back to the state of his alma mater. The Tigers’ new president of baseball operations Scott Harris was general manager of the Giants until recently, meaning he presumably was aware of Brdar’s work in that organization. Joining Brdar as hitting coach for the Tigers will be Keith Beauregard, who had previously been coaching in the Dodgers’ system. Those two will be joined by James Rowson, who had been working as bench coach for the Marlins and has had some interest for managerial openings in recent years.

Hitting will likely be a key focus for the club after that was a huge weakness for them in 2022. Just about every player in the lineup underperformed at the plate, from veterans to prospects. As a collective, Detroit hitters produced a batting line of .231/.286/.346. The resulting 81 wRC+ indicates they were 19% below league average, the worst such mark in the majors. Their 110 home runs were also dead last by a significant margin, as the Guardians were 29th with 127. For a team that entered 2022 with aspirations of ending their rebuild and competing for a playoff spot, those results were disappointing to say the least.

The Padres will now have a vacancy in their own hitting coach position, though Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that Ryan Flaherty is expected to take over the role. Flaherty played in the big leagues from 2012 to 2019 but has since transitioned into the coaching side of the game. The Padres hired him as quality control coach going into 2020 and he has remained with the club since then. The Mets tried to pry him away to be their bench coach a year ago, though the Padres denied their request to interview him.

White Sox To Sign Nate Fisher To Minor League Deal

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The White Sox have an agreement with left-hander Nate Fisher on a minor league deal, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. Fisher will receive an invite to next year’s Spring Training.

As mentioned by Murray, Fisher is known as “The Banker,” a reference to his unusual journey to the big leagues. He was released by the Mariners in May of 2020 and took on a job with the First National Bank of Omaha until re-signing with the Mariners in June of 2021. He was able to throw 37 1/3 innings that year, posting a 2.89 ERA along with a 31.8% strikeout rate and 7.4% walk rate. Though he reached free agency at the end of the year, he intrigued the Mets enough to get a minor league deal with them.

He continued getting good results in the minors this year, enough to get selected to the Mets’ roster and make his MLB debut in August, though he was designated for assignment and outrighted after one scoreless, three-inning appearance. In the minors, he eventually logged 84 2/3 innings with a 4.15 ERA, 22% strikeout rate and 9.3% walk rate.

After reaching free agency again, he already has a new deal in place with the Sox. The club has five lefties on the roster, with all of those having question marks to some degree. Aaron Bummer has posted strong results in recent years but missed about half the 2022 season due to a lat strain. While he was out, the club acquired Jake Diekman from the Red Sox, who posted a 6.52 ERA after the trade. Garrett Crochet underwent Tommy John surgery in April and will miss at least part of the 2023 campaign. Then there’s Tanner Banks and Bennett Sousa, who both just debuted in 2022 and could potentially be optioned and recalled throughout the season. The club could add to this mix throughout the offseason via free agency or trade, but have bolstered the depth for now by bringing in Fisher.

Nationals Sign Derek Hill To Minor League Deal

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The Nationals announced that they have signed outfielder Derek Hill and right-hander Hobie Harris to minor league deals with invites to Spring Training. Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post reported on the Hill deal before the official announcement.

Hill, 27 next month, is a former first round draft pick, having been selected by the Tigers 23rd overall in 2014. At that time, he was considered to be an exciting talent due to his speed and defense, with his ultimate ceiling to be determined by the development of his bat.

Unfortunately, the offensive part of his game never really caught up with the other parts. He cracked the majors in 2020 and got into 95 games over the past three seasons. His batting line in that time is .240/.291/.339, production that’s 24% below league average by measure of wRC+. He’s struck out in 29.9% of his plate appearances, well above the league average rate, with this year’s being 22.4%.

His time in the minors this year wasn’t great either, as he hit .220/.294/.386 for a wRC+ of 73. That included time in the Tigers’ system as well as that of the Mariners, who claimed him off waivers in August. Seattle designated him for assignment and outrighted him in October.

For the Nationals, they are deep in the rebuilding process and not expected to be competitive in 2023, meaning they are one of the teams best-suited to take a shot on a former prospect like Hill. His baserunning and glovework give him a decent floor, meaning even a slight improvement at the plate could turn him into a decent piece for the club. He’s out of options and can’t be sent back down if he cracks the roster, but he has less than two years of service time and can be retained cheaply for years to come if he has a breakout. The Nats have Victor Robles penciled into center field for now, though he’s struggled at the plate for years and is in line for a $2.5MM salary via arbitration, per the projections of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

As for Harris, 30 in June, he was a 31st round draft pick of the Yankees in 2015. He stayed in their system until December of 2019, when the Blue Jays grabbed him in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft. He spent the next couple of years in the Jays’ system before reaching minor league free agency and signing a minor league deal with the Brewers for 2022.

In each of the two past two seasons, he’s been in Triple-A, getting decent amounts of strikeouts and grounders but struggling with the free passes. In 2021, he registered a 3.92 ERA over 43 2/3 innings with a 27.9% strikeout rate, 11.5% walk rate and 48.1% ground ball rate. This year, his peripherals trended in the wrong direction yet his ERA dropped, likely due to a .203 batting average on balls in play. In 53 frames, he had a 2.04 ERA while striking out 27.1% of batters faced, walking 13.5% of them and getting grounders on 40.5% of balls in play. As mentioned with Hill, the Nats are likely going to be cycling through various players on their roster throughout 2023, looking for hidden gems as part of their rebuild. That means Harris has a chance to make his MLB debut if he keeps putting up decent Triple-A results next year.

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