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D-backs Sign Matt Davidson To Minor League Deal

By Steve Adams | November 22, 2021 at 8:46am CDT

Infielder Matt Davidson is returning to the organization that drafted him, as the D-backs’ Triple-A affiliate announced this weekend that Davidson has signed a minor league contract with an invitation to Major League Spring Training.

Selected with the No. 36 overall pick back in 2009, Davidson has shown plenty of power in the big leagues but hasn’t solidified himself as a consistent MLB contributor despite parts of five seasons in the Majors. The MVP Sports client last appeared for the 2020 Reds, hitting .163/.234/.395 with three homers and a double in 47 plate appearances.

In a total of 1075 plate appearances from 2013-20, Davidson is a lifetime .223/.292/.433 hitter with 52 home runs but a sky-high 34.2% strikeout rate. He’s split his big league time evenly between the two infield corners, and while there was some brief consideration of making Davidson a two-way player a few years ago, he has just 7 1/3 innings on the mound in his pro career.

Davidson will add some right-handed-hitting depth to the D-backs’ infield picture, and he’s coming off a massive performance with the Dodgers’ Triple-A club in 2021. Last year, in just 356 plate appearances with Oklahoma City, Davidson slugged 28 homers and tallied 21 doubles while batting .294/.365/.629 (136 wRC+).

Yankees “Monitoring” Rather Than Pursuing Top Free Agent Shortstops?

By Mark Polishuk | November 21, 2021 at 9:27pm CDT

The Yankees have a stated need at shortstop and have already been in touch with several of the biggest names in the free agent shortstop market, and yet it isn’t yet clear if the Bronx Bombers are actually planning to make such a big signing. The New York Daily News’ Matthew Roberson wrote earlier this week that the Yankees were planning to focus on other needs rather than spend big at shortstop since prospects Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza are a year or two away from the majors, and Joel Sherman of The New York Post offers a similar sentiment today, though with a caveat.

According to agents and rival executives, Sherman says the Yankees are less full-on participating in the shortstop market than they are “monitoring” the situation and “waiting to see if a market collapses, in which case they might still swoop in to try to sign one.” For instance, in the event of a league-wide transactions freeze following the expiration of the Collective Bargaining Agreement on December 1, free agents would be in limbo until the freeze was lifted, possibly leading to a sudden surge of deals during Spring Training. This could create a rushed scenario where one of the top five free agent shortstops can’t find an acceptable long-term deal and could be open to a one-year deal from the Yankees — perhaps akin to the one-year, $25MM pact the Bombers offered Justin Verlander before he re-signed with the Astros.

Even if none of the “big five” shortstops are available at such a price, waiting until later in the offseason might also open up more trade possibilities for the Yankees at the position, Sherman notes. In any sense, it doesn’t appear that New York is willing to make a long-term commitment at shortstop, and if a multi-year mega-deal is struck, it might be a contract extension for a known quantity like Aaron Judge.

If the Yankees did extend Judge and add prominent names to the rotation or at other positions (i.e. first base or center field), Bronx fans might be satisfied with the team opting to acquire a lesser shortstop than any of Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, Marcus Semien, Javier Baez, or Trevor Story. Then again, for a fanbase used to their team splurging on premium talents, sitting out this star-studded market when shortstop is such a clear need probably won’t be received all that well no matter what other players join the roster. It also puts extra pressure on Volpe and Peraza to produce, as while the duo are highly-regarded minor leaguers, Sherman notes that the Yankees haven’t gotten consistent results from many of their top homegrown position players in recent years.

The December 1 CBA date has added plenty of extra uncertainty and urgency to this year’s offseason market. Last week, ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote that Seager and Semien could be among the players more eager to get a new deal finalized before the CBA expires. In in the nine days since Passan’s report, there hasn’t been any inkling that Seager or Semien are particularly close to a contract, though multiple teams (including the Yankees) have been known to be interested in both players. Of the prominent free agents who have already signed contracts, the majority have been pitchers — Brandon Belt is the only position player within MLBTR’s top 50 free agent list that has already put pen to paper, accepting the Giants’ qualifying offer.

One or more of the top shortstops leaving the market would certainly have an effect the Yankees’ plans to wait out a freeze, but even all of the five big names signing elsewhere might not do much to impact what ultimately might be something of a “plan B” for the team. If anything, a February signing flurry might allow New York to obtain a stopgap shortstop (their bridge to Volpe and Peraza) at a lesser price, since non-elite free agents are likely to be more heavily affected by a freeze than the names at the top of the market.

NPB’s Seibu Lions Sign Dietrich Enns

By Steve Adams | November 21, 2021 at 8:25pm CDT

TODAY: Enns is heading to Japan to sign with the Seibu Lions, the team announced.

NOVEMBER 17: The Rays are in the process of finalizing an agreement to send left-hander Dietrich Enns to a team either in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, the Korea Baseball Organization or Taiwan’s Chinese Professional Baseball League, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter link). Enns will be placed on release waivers today and, upon clearing Friday, will be free to sign with his new club.

Moves such as this one generally benefit all parties and are, of course, made with full consent from the player in question. Whichever team held interest in Enns would first contact the Rays, who’d then gauge the player’s interest in the opportunity before proceeding to negotiate a release agreement. Tampa Bay will likely receive some financial compensation for releasing Enns, while the pitcher himself will receive a larger salary in NPB or the KBO than he’d have earned as a fringe big leaguer in 2022 — if he’d even stuck on the Rays’ 40-man roster.

Enns, 30, was quite effective in 22 1/3 frames for the Rays this past season, pitching to a 2.82 ERA with an impressive 28.4% strikeout rate against a strong 6.8% walk rate. That marked the first big league action for Enns since a brief four-inning cup of coffee with the 2017 Twins, however, and the lefty’s minor league track record generally isn’t as strong as this past season’s results. Enns did post a 2.64 ERA in 71 2/3 Triple-A frames, but he carries a career 4.26 ERA with pedestrian strikeout and walk rates in nearly 400 innings at that level.

The benefit to the arrangement for Enns could be twofold. In addition to securing a guaranteed salary of some note for the first time in an 11-year professional career, he’ll also set himself up for the opportunity to potentially return to Major League Baseball outside the constructs of the arbitration system.

Had Enns remained with the Rays, he’d have needed another three years on the roster before qualifying for arbitration eligibility as a 33-year-old (at least, as the arbitration system currently stands). However, by going to NPB, the KBO or the CPBL, Enns could impress for only a season or two and then return on a guaranteed Major League deal. Chris Flexen, Merrill Kelly, Josh Lindblom and Miles Mikolas are among the recent players to go this route, securing considerable salaries overseas before returning to the big leagues on guaranteed, multi-year contracts that typically allow them to become free agents upon completion (rather than remain under control via arbitration). It’s not a foolproof gambit, of course, but even if Enns struggles in his new environs he’d still likely come away with more than he’d have earned with a big league club in 2022.

With the removal of Enns, the Rays’ 40-man roster will have three open spots. Topkin suggests that the Rays may look to open another spot or two prior to Friday’s Rule 5 protection deadline.

Looking For A Match In A Kevin Kiermaier Trade

By Mark Polishuk | November 21, 2021 at 7:27pm CDT

Back in March 2017, the Rays signed Kevin Kiermaier to a six-year, $53.5MM contract extension with the intention of locking in the Gold Glover as a fixture in the Tampa Bay outfield. As that contract enters its final guaranteed year, the team’s plan came to fruition…sort of. Kiermaier’s bat never took the expected leap forward, as he has hit .243/.307/.399 with 43 homers over 1817 plate appearances since the start of the 2017 season, translating to below-average (93 wRC+, 94 OPS+) offensive production. He has also played in only 486 of a possible 708 games in that five-season stretch due to a multitude of injuries.

And yet despite the missed time and the lack of consistent hitting, Kiermaier has still been worth 10.3 fWAR over the last five seasons, in large part because he remains arguably the sport’s best defensive outfielder. As per Fangraphs’ value metrics, Kiermaier has been worth $82.5MM from 2017-21, more than twice as much as his real-world earnings over the same period.

So in that sense, the Kiermaier extension has worked out for the Rays, and his presence (or lack thereof, when on the injured list) certainly hasn’t kept the team from enjoying quite a bit of on-field success. But for a team with such a limited payroll as Tampa Bay, any player making an eight-figure salary who is providing anything less than superstar-level production might not be a fit in the Rays’ financial framework. Indeed, it can be argued that if Kiermaier had been healthier over the last five years, the Rays might well have traded him long ago, given how often Kiermaier’s name has been whispered in trade rumors.

Heading into 2022, however, teams interested in acquiring Kiermaier face a bit less of a risk since he is only guaranteed one season’s worth of money. The center fielder is set to earn $14.5MM in 2022 — $12MM in salary, and the $2.5MM buyout of a $13MM club option for 2023. If Kiermaier can stay healthy and productive, then, a team could even exercise that option and keep him around for another year, adding a bit of a potential bonus to trading for the 31-year-old (who turns 32 in April).

“Less risk” doesn’t translate to no risk, of course, given Kiermaier’s checkered injury history. Counting on him to be an everyday center fielder just doesn’t seem feasible both health-wise and perhaps based on Kiermaier’s numbers, such as his .663 career OPS against left-handed pitching. If a team has a fairly inexpensive, right-handed hitting center field option already in place as a platoon partner, however, this club could take the plunge on Kiermaier and just hope that anything beyond two-thirds of a season would be gravy.

It is also quite possible that a Kiermaier trade would involve more than just Kiermaier. The Rays could certainly package him together as part of a larger multi-player swap, or maybe just include a prospect along with Kiermaier in order to better entice another team to absorb that full $14.5MM salary.

From Tampa Bay’s perspective, Kiermaier’s center field role could be relatively easily filled by Manuel Margot, a strong defender in his own right. The Rays’ starting outfield would then project as Margot, Randy Arozarena, and Austin Meadows, with Brett Phillips and Jordan Luplow as bench depth, Brandon Lowe and Vidal Brujan both capable of playing in the outfield, and top prospect Josh Lowe knocking on the door. This abundance of outfield options makes Kiermaier all the more expendable.

This season’s free agent market is very short on true center fielders, as the class consists of Starling Marte and then a large group of players who can play center in a pinch, but are better suited for regular work in the corners or at other positions. With pickings this slim on the center field front, teams in need of help up in the middle are more apt to check in with the Rays about Kiermaier, particularly clubs who miss out on Marte, or weren’t keen on meeting his asking price in the first place.

Let’s first omit the teams who either aren’t planning to contend in 2022 (the Orioles, Pirates, Diamondbacks), teams who may be more focused on payroll cuts than contending (Athletics, Reds), or the teams who are already have pretty solid center field options, or at least options that are comparable to what Kiermaier can provide — the Angels, Blue Jays, Brewers, Cardinals, Guardians, Padres, Royals, and Tigers. With these 13 clubs out of the way, let’s focus on how the remaining 16 teams break down as potential fits for a Kiermaier swap…

Teams Linked To Starling Marte

Phillies: The club parted ways with Odubel Herrera, and various in-house options (Adam Haseley, Roman Quinn, Mickey Moniak, Luke Williams) haven’t proven themselves capable of regular work at the big league level. While the front office has implied that they have some room to spend, acquiring Kiermaier would be a relatively inexpensive way of addressing a major center field need, while allowing the Phillies to make a bigger splurge at another position.
Rangers: Texas is ready to spend this offseason, so Kiermaier’s salary wouldn’t be an issue for the Arlington club. His shorter-term contract also gives the Rangers more flexibility with their outfield for any future moves next winter, when Texas might be making more of a full-on push to contend. For what it’s worth, the Rays and Rangers have lined up on some notable trades in recent years.
Marlins: Kiermaier wouldn’t provide the hitting boost Miami is looking for, but there is obvious benefit to adding an elite defender to the outfield. With Kiermaier providing extra coverage on the grass, the Marlins could be more open to adding a big hitter who is less-than-stellar with the glove (i.e. Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber) for a corner outfield slot.
Mets: The Amazins have long been looking for a true everyday center fielder, and Kiermaier would provide a hugely-needed defensive boost in the outfield. One obstacle, however, could be that the Mets are already loaded with left-handed hitting outfield options.
Giants: Kind of an imperfect match, as San Francisco might feel they already have its own version of Kiermaier in Steven Duggar. Signing Marte would be a more natural upgrade for the Giants’ center field needs, but Duggar is younger than Kiermaier, can provide maybe 80% of the same excellent glovework, and might have some untapped hitting upside.
Astros: A little similar to the Giants’ situation, as the Astros might feel the combination of Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers, and Jose Siri can provide Kiermaier-esque production at a fraction of the price. However, Meyers will miss at least some time at the start of the season recovering from shoulder surgery, and Astros GM James Click knows Kiermaier well from Click’s time working in Tampa Bay’s front office.
Yankees: Since Kiermaier and Aaron Hicks have equally spotty injury histories, New York might want a more stable option to replace or platoon with Hicks. The Rays could also balk at dealing Kiermaier to a division rival.

Other Teams With Outfield Needs

Rockies: Kiermaier would look good in patrolling the vast Coors Field grass, and he would only help the run-prevention efforts of a Rockies team that was quietly one of the league’s better defensive clubs. Garrett Hampson could act as a right-handed hitting platoon partner with Kiermaier in center, though some of the Rockies’ other outfielders (Raimel Tapia, Sam Hilliard, Yonathan Daza) could be even more expendable in other trades.
Nationals: Lane Thomas impressed after being acquired by the Cardinals, but since Thomas is a right-handed hitter, he could be paired with Kiermaier in center, or he could see time in left field. If Washington did use Thomas in a more everyday capacity in left, a Kiermaier/Victor Robles could also work for center.
Mariners: Seattle technically already has an outfield surplus that will become even deeper once star prospect Julio Rodriguez makes his big league debut. What the M’s don’t really have, however, is a true center field option, since Jarred Kelenic looks more suited for corner outfield work and Kyle Lewis is returning from major knee surgery. Kiermaier would bring veteran experience and a great glove to the outfield, and the Mariners and Rays have a long history of swinging trades with each other.
Cubs: While Chicago could have been slotted in the “not sure how hard they’ll be trying to contend” group, the Cubs did have trade talks with the Rays about Kiermaier this past summer, even if Kiermaier’s inclusion may have been more about salary offset than a direct interest. Still, Kiermaier would certainly fit as a regular center fielder, with Rafael Ortega then moving into something of a fourth outfield role. Ultimately, the Cubs hope to have top prospect Brennen Davis seeing regular time in center field before the season is over, so Kiermaier would be something of a short-term fix that the Cubs might not feel they need to make with Ortega already around.
Braves: The World Series champions will have Ronald Acuna Jr. back at some point to join an outfield mix that includes Adam Duvall, Cristian Pache, Drew Waters, and Guillermo Heredia. There is also the lingering uncertainty surrounding Marcell Ozuna, who will likely face a suspension under the MLB/MLBPA domestic violence policy. Bringing Kiermaier to center field would help solidify the group, but as we saw last year, Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos is pretty adept at rebuilding an outfield on the fly, so he might want to see how his current options play out before deciding if upgrades are necessary.

More Creative Options

Dodgers: Chris Taylor could leave in free agency and Cody Bellinger might not be a part of the Dodgers’ future, given his struggles over the last two regular seasons. Therefore, the center field position might be in need of some help, and Dodgers president of baseball ops Andrew Friedman was the Rays’ GM when Kiermaier was initially drafted and developed in Tampa.
Red Sox: Speaking of former Rays executives now running other front offices, Chaim Bloom could see Kiermaier as a way of upgrading the shaky Red Sox defense. Enrique Hernandez’s excellent center field glovework was a bright spot within that defensive corps, but with Kiermaier on board, Hernandez would be freed up for his intended super-utility role, with second base perhaps becoming his new regular position. As noted earlier with the Yankees, trading Kiermaier within the division might not be Tampa’s preference.
White Sox: Another position change would be in the offing here, as while Luis Robert has looked pretty good as a defensive center fielder, he could slide nicely into a right field role if Kiermaier was acquired. Robert could also return to center field when a lefty starter is on the mound, thus opening up playing time for Andrew Vaughn or Adam Engel.
Twins: Acquiring Kiermaier might only be a possibility for Minnesota if Byron Buxton is traded….or, maybe the Twins and Rays could arrange a trade involving both Kiermaier and Buxton. Such a deal might not really fit for either team in center field specifically, so it would need to be a pretty interesting multi-player swap to make this scenario anything more than a longshot.

Brewers To Sign Pedro Severino

By Mark Polishuk | November 21, 2021 at 4:05pm CDT

The Brewers have signed catcher Pedro Severino to a one-year, $1.9MM deal, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reports (via Twitter). Another $400K in incentives are available to the 28-year-old backstop, who is represented by Republik Sports. The contract will become official when Severino passes a physical.

After Manny Pina signed with the Braves earlier this week, Severino will now step directly into Pina’s role as the right-handed hitting complement to the lefty-swinging Omar Narvaez behind the plate in Milwaukee. Narvaez struggles badly against left-handed pitching and he struggled in general in the second half of the 2021 season, so there should be a fair amount of playing time available to Severino with his new club.

Severino, for his part, has a very solid .262/.324/.441 career slash line against left-handed pitching, with particularly good numbers in both 2019 (.812 OPS in 155 PA) and 2021 (.818 OPS in 161 PA). Severino didn’t do much against righties, however, and between his projected $3.1MM arbitration salary and Adley Rutschman looming as the Orioles’ catcher of the future, Baltimore chose to outright Severino off its 40-man roster earlier this month. Severino then opted to become a free agent for the first time in his career.

Severino has a third and final year of arbitration eligibility next winter, so this extra year of control gives the Brewers some flexibility in future catching decisions since Narvaez is himself a free agent after the 2022 campaign. Prospect Mario Feliciano made his MLB debut last year, so if the Brew Crew is optimistic about his future, Milwaukee could potentially roll with a Feliciano/Severino combination in 2023 if the club decided to let Narvaez walk.

Defensively, Severino has been a below-average framer and he has -19 Defensive Runs Saved over his career. As noted by Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, however, there is some cause for optimism that the Brewers can get Severino turned around in the same way that Narvaez went from being a subpar defender to a very strong pitch-framer in his two seasons with the Brew Crew.

Pirates To Sign Jose Quintana

By Mark Polishuk | November 21, 2021 at 3:54pm CDT

The Pirates have agreed to a deal with left-hander Jose Quintana, according to FanSided’s Robert Murray (Twitter link). MLB Network’s Jon Heyman adds that Quintana’s contract is a one-year, Major League pact, and Jason Mackey of The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that Quintana will earn around $2MM (both links to Twitter). The signing will become official once Quintana passes a physical. Quintana is represented by the Wasserman Agency.

Quintana was one of the more durable and generally solid starters in baseball from 2012-19, when the southpaw pitched for the White Sox and Cubs. However, thumb injuries and lat inflammation limited Quintana to only 10 innings for the Cubs in 2020, and he also spent about three weeks on the injured list this past season due to shoulder inflammation. That IL stint was only one of the issues Quintana faced in 2021, after he signed a one-year, $8MM deal with the Angels last winter.

The left-hander had only a 6.75 ERA over 53 1/3 innings in Anaheim, and then a 4.66 ERA over 9 2/3 innings with the Giants after being claimed off waivers at the end of August. It all worked out to a 6.43 ERA as a whole over 63 frames, though Quintana’s SIERA (3.94) and xFIP (3.75) were more than respectable. A 3.78 BABIP may be the standout statistic in that regard, as Quintana received very little help from the Angels’ poor defense.

Batted-ball luck wasn’t the only culprit to blame for Quintana’s numbers, however. He allowed a ton of hard contact and his 11.8% walk rate was easily the highest of his career. On the flip side, Quintana’s 28.6% strikeout rate was also the highest of his career, and his whiff rate was well above the league average. Quintana was also quite a bit more effective as a reliever than as a starter last year, as the Angels moved him to the bullpen in the wake of his rotation struggles. This could hint at a new direction for Quintana as he enters his age-33 season, or at least a fallback option for the Pirates if Quintana doesn’t produce as a starter.

Given Pittsburgh’s need for starting pitching, it seems likely that the Bucs will use Quintana in their rotation to begin the year and hope that he can regain some of his pre-2020 form as a reliable innings-eater. The Pirates don’t have much big league experience in their projected starting five, and the team surely wants to avoid a repeat of 2021, when a plethora of injuries and trades resulted in the Bucs having to dig deep into their depth chart to cover starts. Should Quintana pitch well, Pittsburgh could also dangle him as a trade chip at the deadline.

Organizational Notes: Red Sox, Groopman, Orioles, Murray

By Darragh McDonald | November 21, 2021 at 2:23pm CDT

Mike Groopman is joining the Red Sox organization as an assistant general manager, per Chad Jennings and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Groopman was previously with the Brewers as VP of International Scouting and Player Personnel.

After short stints with the Reds and Mets, Groopman was hired by the Royals in 2008 and ended up staying for a decade, before moving to Milwaukee in 2017. When he joined Kansas City, the club was in the middle of a years-long tank job that ultimately proved fruitful, as they had four consecutive seasons of .500 or above from 2013 to 2016, which included back-to-back trips to the World Series, losing to the Giants in 2014 but then defeating the Mets in 2015. Since Groopman came to the Brewers, they have also had a nice run of success, having just made the postseason for a fourth straight year.

Of course, front offices are comprised of dozens of employees and no individual can take full responsibility for a club’s successes or failures. Still, the fact that Groopman has been given this new job and new title shows that his work is well regarded in the industry.

Moving across the AL East, Collin Murray will be joining the Orioles as a development coach, he himself announced on Twitter. Over the past few years, Murray has worked with some colleges, in addition to jobs with the Marlins, Angels and Tigers.

Development is going to be extremely important for the Orioles over the next few years. They are currently bottom feeders in a stacked AL East, with the other four teams each logging at least 91 wins in 2021, compared to the 52 notched by the Orioles. However, their farm system is held in high esteem by prospect evaluators, with FanGraphs and MLB Pipeline ranking theirs as the best in the league, and Baseball America slotting them second behind the Mariners. Helping those talented youngsters blossom into productive major leaguers will be extremely important for them to gain ground on their rivals and get back into contention.

Free Agent Faceoff: Kris Bryant Vs. Kyle Seager Vs. Eduardo Escobar

By Darragh McDonald | November 21, 2021 at 11:51am CDT

If you scan MLBTR’s list of Top 50 Free Agents looking for a third baseman, you’ll quickly see Kris Bryant in the #4 slot, predicted to get a contract of $160MM over six years, an average annual value of $26.67MM. Then there’s a big drop-off to Kyle Seager at #31 and Eduardo Escobar at #35. Each is projected to get a two-year deal, with Seager getting a total of $24MM and Escobar $20MM.

Age is certainly a justified reason for Bryant to get a longer contract, as he’s about to turn 30 in January, whereas Seager just turned 34 and Escobar will turn 33 in January, his birthday being the day after Bryant’s, making him almost exactly three years older. However, looking at their recent track records, they may not be as far apart as one might think.

Bryant was a high profile prospect who burst onto the scene in 2015. In his first three seasons, he lived up to all of the hype, hitting .288/.388/.527 for a wRC+ of 144. Combined with solid defense, he was worth 20.7 fWAR over those three seasons, which included winning NL MVP in 2016 and a World Series ring to boot. He has slowed down since that time, however, primarily on the defensive side of things. His slash line from 2018 to 2021 is still great, coming in at .268/.363/.479, wRC+ of 124. But due to diminished defensive numbers, that adds up to 11.1 fWAR over those four seasons. Statcast’s Outs Above Average gave Bryant 5 and 4 at third base in 2016 and 2017, respectively. But since then, he’s been at 0 or below, including -4 at third base in 2021 and -10 overall.

Escobar’s trajectory has been almost the opposite, as he had a breakout year in 2018 and has had his strongest campaigns in recent years. Like Bryant, he had three solid seasons in the past four years, with the shortened 2020 season being his weakest. His overall line from 2018 to 2021 is .259/.318/.475, wRC+ of 105. His defense has been graded around league average in that time, allowing him to accumulate 9.5 fWAR in that span, just 1.6 shy of Bryant. In 2021, Bryant’s wRC+ of 123 was ahead of Escobar’s 107, but the defensive differences meant that his 3.6 fWAR on the campaign was just barely ahead of Escobar’s 3.0. Escobar’s nightmare season in 2020 resulted in -0.5 fWAR, but he was worth three wins or more in each of 2018, 2019 and 2021.

As for Seager, his best run of play was from 2012 to 2017. He has certainly slipped a bit since then but still managed to be a solid contributor thanks to his power and defense. Over the 2018-2021 timeframe, he hit .224/.298/.423, for a wRC+ of 99 and 8.5 fWAR, just a shade behind Escobar. Despite some ups and downs on offense, his glovework has been fairly steady. In the estimation of FanGraphs, he’s been worth at least 1.5 fWAR for ten straight seasons now, including the shortened 2020 campaign. In the six seasons of data for OAA, Seager has been worth at least three OAA in five of those seasons, with 2018 being the only outlier.

There’s no denying that Bryant deserves to be the top option out of these three. He’s the best hitter and offers upside that the others can’t match. The potential implementation of the NL DH would also make it easier for him to play the field less and perhaps maximize the value of his bat. His ability to play the outfield opens his market, although his defense hasn’t been graded well out on the grass. For teams looking for someone to play third base regularly, his declining defensive numbers would surely give them pause, especially when the asking price will probably be near $30MM per season. Escobar and Seager should cost less than half what Bryant will, both in terms of years and average annual value. There would be some logic to a team taking one of the cheaper options and using the cost savings to upgrade another area of their squad.

If you were sitting in the general manager’s chair, would you rather blow your budget and commit long-term to Bryant, and then get some cheap fliers to fill out the rest of your team? Or would you rather spread your money around more evenly, getting a cheap option like Escobar or Seager and then having more money for other additions? Have your say in the poll below.

(Poll link for app users)

Seiya Suzuki To Be Posted Tomorrow Morning

By Darragh McDonald | November 21, 2021 at 9:41am CDT

MLB has told teams that outfielder Seiya Suzuki will be posted tomorrow morning, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. That will open a 30-day window for teams to negotiate with him, with the deadline being 4:00 pm CT on December 22. If he doesn’t sign a contract by then, he will return to the Hiroshima Carp, his team in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball.

It was reported weeks ago that Suzuki was going to be posted, but the official timing of the posting is significant. The Collective Bargaining Agreement between MLB and MLBPA is set to expire at 11:59 pm ET on December 1. Due to the fact that it seems unlikely a deal will come together by then, the expectation around the industry has been that December 2 will see the implementation of a lockout and transaction freeze that would last until a new agreement is reached. Commissioner Rob Manfred discussed this scenario recently and seemed to point to its likelihood.

There’s a ten-day span from Suzuki’s posting tomorrow until that potential lockout day. Joel Sherman of the New York Post confirms that a transaction freeze would indeed apply to Suzuki as well, meaning no team could sign him while the freeze is in place. It had been previously reported that MLB and NPB were discussing an agreement wherein Suzuki’s 30-day clock would be paused during the freeze. That agreement seems to have been reached, as Sherman also reports that Suzuki’s 30-day clock will not move during a lockout. That means Suzuki is going to have to decide between hastily working out a deal in just over a week or dealing with the uncertainty of waiting out this winter’s labor strife and then having around 20 days of negotiating time on the other side of that.

Suzuki came in 20th on MLBTR’s list of Top 50 Free Agents and was predicted to get a contract of $55MM over five years. The 27-year-old seems capable of stepping right into the middle of the lineup for an MLB team, along with providing a strong arm and competent right field defense. Any big league team that signs Suzuki would owe the Carp a fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. For example, if Suzuki were signed for $55MM as MLBTR predicted, the signing team would have to pay the Carp $10.125MM, bringing the total bill to $65.125MM. Since the reports that he was going to be posted, Suzuki has already been connected in rumors to the Red Sox, Rangers, Giants and Mariners.

Quick Hits: Carpenter, Pirates, Tsutsugo, Braves

By Mark Polishuk | November 20, 2021 at 10:34pm CDT

Matt Carpenter has heard from a few teams about a potential contract, but he is “super prepared for an extremely slow free-agency pace here,” the former Cardinals All-Star told The Athletic’s Katie Woo. “I totally understand that I’m not necessarily a highly sought-after free agent and that there are a lot of unknowns going forward.” Even without the uncertainty of labor talks and a potential transactions freeze looming this offseason, Carpenter likely would have faced a thin market anyway considering his lack of production over the last three seasons.

However, Carpenter sees possible changes to the sport as helpful to his chances of landing a new job. Should the DH come to the National League, for instance, or “the potential of banning and limiting shifts” becomes a reality, Carpenter might draw more interest. Within a week of his 36th birthday, Carpenter reiterated that he wants to continue his career into a 12th big league season, but seemed at peace with whatever the offseason will bring. “If I play, no matter where, I’ll be perfectly happy with that,” Carpenter said. “And if I don’t, and if I’m staying home and going to be a dad and I finished my career with one and only one organization, I’ll be perfectly happy with that as well.”

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