John Means Undergoes Tommy John Surgery
APRIL 27: Baltimore general manager Mike Elias announced that Means’ surgery was successful. The team is hopeful he can return at some point before the All-Star Break in 2023 (via Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com).
APRIL 23: John Means announced via Twitter that he is indeed going to need Tommy John surgery. This has been the feared outcome since the Orioles placed Means on the 60-day injured list last week. He will miss the rest of this season, and most likely, a large chunk of next season as well.
Means is unquestionably Baltimore’s top starter, having pitched to a 3.72 ERA/4.59 FIP over 353 1/3 innings since the start of the 2019 season. He’s the only O’s pitcher to even exceed 200 frames over that stretch, and no other Baltimore starter with 100+ frames in that time has an ERA below 4.79.
As the Orioles remain amidst a complete rebuild, Means has been a frequently-mentioned trade candidate. He might’ve found himself on the move last summer had he not suffered a June shoulder injury that cost him more than six weeks. The 28-year-old returned in July but wasn’t as effective during the season’s second half as he’d been earlier in the year. Reports over this past offseason suggested Means was available, but there was no indication the team came particularly close to pulling the trigger on a deal. He entered the season as a possible deadline target for pitching-needy contenders, but that’s off the table now that he will go under the knife.
Reds To Select Phillip Diehl
12:45pm: The Reds announced the move, adding that lefty Justin Wilson is heading to the 10-day injured list with a soreness in his left elbow. With Wilson sidelined and Diehl up in the Majors, the Reds will still have just one lone southpaw option in the bullpen.
11:25am: The Reds are selecting the contract of left-handed reliever Phillip Diehl, reports C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic (Twitter link). It’ll be the Cincinnati native’s first big league work since appearing with the Rockies in 2020. The Reds have an open spot on the 40-man roster at the moment, so no corresponding 40-man move was necessary. The team hasn’t yet announced the transaction, though, so it’s possible it’ll be accompanied by other roster moves.
Diehl, 27, is in his second season with his hometown organization. He spent the 2021 season with the Reds’ Triple-A affiliate in Louisville, where he pitched to a terrific 2.47 ERA with a 33% strikeout rate against a 5.6% walk rate in 54 2/3 innings of relief. Despite that showing, Diehl didn’t get a look in the big leagues with the Reds, who claimed him off waivers from the Rockies in early April and passed him through waivers a month later.
This season, Diehl has has yielded four earned runs on five hits and a walk with 11 strikeouts through eight frames. He’ll give manager David Bell a second southpaw option in a bullpen that had previously only included veteran Justin Wilson.
In 13 1/3 career Major League innings, Diehl has allowed 13 runs. He’s been outstanding at Triple-A dating back to last season, however, and has a long history of both missing bats (31.1% strikeout rate) and limiting free passes (6.7% walk rate) in parts of six minor league seasons.
Offseason In Review: Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays continued to aggressively shop in both the free agent and trade markets, adding what they hope are the finishing touches on a postseason contender.
Major League Signings
- Kevin Gausman, SP: Five years, $110MM
- Yusei Kikuchi, SP: Three years, $36MM
- Yimi Garcia, RP: Two years, $11MM (includes $1MM buyout of $5MM club option for 2024; option vests for $6MM if Garcia hits innings/appearance thresholds)
- Andrew Vasquez, RP: One year, $800K
- 2022 spending: $42.8MM
- Total spending: $157.8MM
Trades & Claims
- Acquired 3B Matt Chapman from the Athletics for IF Kevin Smith, SP Gunnar Hoglund, SP Zach Logue, and RP Kirby Snead
- Acquired OF Raimel Tapia and IF Adrian Pinto from the Rockies for OF Randal Grichuk and cash ($9,716,333)
- Acquired OF Bradley Zimmer from the Guardians for RP Anthony Castro
- Acquired C Zack Collins from the White Sox for C Reese McGuire
- Claimed RP Shaun Anderson off waivers from the Padres
Notable Minor League Signings
- David Phelps (contract selected, $1.75MM guarantee), Tyler Heineman (selected), Gosuke Katoh (selected), Dexter Fowler, Mallex Smith, Joshua Fuentes, Joe Biagini, Jose De Leon, Casey Lawrence, Eric Stamets, Nathan Lukes
Extensions
- Jose Berrios, SP: Seven years, $131MM (Berrios can opt out after the 2026 season)
- Matt Chapman, 3B: Two years, $25MM (avoiding arbitration)
Notable Losses
- Marcus Semien, Robbie Ray, Steven Matz, Corey Dickerson, Joakim Soria (retirement), Breyvic Valera, Kirby Yates, Grichuk, Hoglund, Smith, Logue, Snead
The Blue Jays headed into the offseason with three of their biggest 2021 contributors entering the free agent market, and the entire trio signed with new teams before the lockout. Marcus Semien’s seven-year, $175MM deal with the Rangers was the priciest of the bunch, with Robbie Ray also landing five years and $115MM from the Mariners, and Steven Matz receiving a healthy four-year, $44MM payday from the Cardinals. There wasn’t much expectation that the Blue Jays would re-sign all three of these players, though it perhaps counted as a bit of a surprise that none of the three ended up returning.
Still, given how it was another “in on everyone” offseason for the Jays’ front office, it was clear the team had plenty of contingency plans in the event that all three free agents did indeed leave town. Since Semien and Ray rejected qualifying offers, the Jays also netted two extra compensatory draft picks, so Toronto will now be picking four times within the first 78 selections of July’s amateur draft.
The Jays dabbled in the pool of qualifying offer free agents themselves, as Toronto was linked to the likes of Freddie Freeman, Corey Seager, Justin Verlander, Eduardo Rodriguez, Chris Taylor, and Michael Conforto. As for non-QO free agents, Kyle Schwarber and Seiya Suzuki were two of the more prominent names known to be of interest to Canada’s team.
Amidst all of these targets, the Blue Jays’ biggest pre-lockout strike was a player who had been on the club’s radar for years. GM Ross Atkins had tried to sign Kevin Gausman in each of the past two offseasons, and the third time was the charm — at the cost of a five-year, $110MM contract. Gausman would’ve obviously come much cheaper two winters ago when he was coming off a tough 2019 season with the Braves and Reds, but after two outstanding seasons with the Giants, he’d put himself into the top tier of available arms. At least through four starts of the 2022 season, Gausman has continued to pitch like an ace, showing early signs that his good form can carry over to the tough AL East.
The Blue Jays also moved to lock up an in-house member of their starting staff, extending Jose Berrios for a seven-year, $131MM pact. The deal kept Berrios off the 2022-23 free agent market, and reinforced the belief that the Jays already showed in the right-hander by giving up prospects Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson to acquire Berrios from the Twins at last summer’s trade deadline.
Berrios and manager Charlie Montoyo were the only extensions of note during the Toronto offseason, apart from the club’s two-year pact with trade acquisition Matt Chapman over his two remaining arbitration years. It seems as though the Blue Jays have yet to really dive into serious extension talks with either Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Bo Bichette, but with both players controlled through 2025, the clock isn’t ticking too loudly for a long-term deal to be immediately reached.
Once the lockout was over, the Jays added another piece of the rotation puzzle by signing Yusei Kikuchi to a three-year, $36MM deal. It was an intriguing bet on a pitcher who was quite inconsistent over his first three Major League seasons, with the 2021 campaign acting as a microcosm of Kikuchi’s duality. An outstanding first half earned the southpaw a trip to the All-Star Game, yet he struggled so much in the second half that the Mariners (who were fighting for a wild card berth) skipped him in the rotation in the last week of the season.
In essence, the Jays are hoping that pitching coach Pete Walker can straighten out Kikuchi in the same manner that Ray and Matz were revived after coming to Toronto. As a bit of a hedge, the front-loaded nature of Kikuchi’s contract (he’ll earn $16MM in 2022) could make him a bit easier to eventually unload if he does continue to struggle.
Turning to the bullpen, the Jays made both a notable investment and a lower-cost signing that they hope will pay dividends. Yimi Garcia was added for $11MM to bring some more experience to the Blue Jays’ fleet of setup men, while David Phelps offers some of that same veteran stature at the lower price of $1.75MM (after Toronto selected Phelps’ minor league contract). 2021 was another injury-marred season for Phelps, who missed all of 2018 recovering from Tommy John surgery and was then limited to 65 1/3 innings over the 2019-21 seasons.
With some holes on the pitching staff filled, the question of how to replace Semien stood out as perhaps the biggest issue facing the Blue Jays after the lockout. The Santiago Espinal/Cavan Biggio tandem was penciled in for either second or third base, depending on which infield position Toronto chose to address with a new addition.
That new add came at the hot corner, as the Blue Jays took advantage of the Athletics’ fire sale by picking up Matt Chapman for a package of four younger players. Gunnar Hoglund was one of the top prospects in Toronto’s farm system, but since the 2021 first-rounder is coming off Tommy John surgery, the Jays might have considered him more valuable as a trade chip than as a building block. The other three players dealt (Kevin Smith, Zach Logue, Kirby Snead) are controllable and more ready to play in the majors, with Smith standing out as an interesting pickup for Oakland considering his own high ceiling and prospect status. Surely the bonus of those two QO compensation picks played into the Jays’ thinking in trading from their prospect depth, especially considering the MVP-candidate production Chapman displayed in 2018-19.
At his best, Chapman is one of the game’s best all-around players, combining Platinum Glove-winning defense with above-average offense. That bat hasn’t been as dangerous in 2020-21, however, as Chapman has seemingly struggled due to a hip injury that required surgery in September 2020. In the small sample size of the 2022 season’s first 18 games, Chapman isn’t walking much or generating huge power. He’s cut down on his strikeouts a bit, however, and his hard-contact rate and exit velocity are back in line with his pre-injury numbers.
Considering how many other notable position players the Jays were reportedly exploring, it will make some interesting “what if” debates if Chapman replicates his 2021 struggles. For instance, Jose Ramirez was rumored to be a Jays trade target for years, and Toronto was never quite able to put together an offer that swayed the Guardians into dealing the All-Star. (As it turned out, Ramirez stayed put entirely by signing an extension that stands as the largest contract in Cleveland’s franchise history.)
Adding a switch-hitter like Ramirez, or a left-handed bat like Seager, Freeman, or Schwarber would’ve made for a smoother fit at least from a lineup balance standpoint, considering how the Jays’ ideal starting lineup is almost entirely right-handed. To address this issue, Toronto focused on adding left-handed hitters to its bench, trading for Raimel Tapia, Bradley Zimmer, and Zack Collins in a trio of swaps.
The Tapia deal was the highest-profile of the bunch, as he and infield prospect Adrian Pinto were acquired from the Rockies for Randal Grichuk and a little over half of the $18.66MM owed to Grichuk through the 2023 season. Reports surfaced in December that the Blue Jays had also looked into moving Grichuk to the Brewers for Jackie Bradley Jr., another left-handed hitter (though known more for his standout defense). Grichuk is off to a scorching (if likely BABIP-aided) start in Colorado, yet after three lackluster seasons in Toronto, the outfielder began to look like an expensive spare part.
If Grichuk does benefit from a change of scenery, the Jays are hoping the same is true for Tapia, Zimmer, and Collins, who were all well-regarded prospects who never broke out with their original teams. As it has turned out, all three players have seen more action than expected in the early going, due to oblique injuries for both Teoscar Hernandez and Danny Jansen. Collins has in particular blossomed with this extra playing time, as he has even received some DH at-bats as the Blue Jays have endeavored to keep him in the lineup.
Losing Hernandez, Jansen, Hyun Jin Ryu, and Nate Pearson to the injured list hasn’t done much to slow the Blue Jays down in April, and the team is thus far living up to the high expectations shared by the players, the front office, and the Toronto fanbase. Given how the Jays clearly have their eyes on a championship, it seems certain that more upgrades are still to come prior to the trade deadline, and the rotation already stands out as a potential area of need in light of Ryu’s health issues and rough outings on the mound.
In the same way that Chapman will be (fairly or unfairly) compared to other star players the Jays “could have” landed instead, Gausman and Kikuchi will be competing in some sense against Verlander, E-Rod, and such pitchers the Blue Jays reportedly discussed in trade talks, such as the Reds’ Tyler Mahle or Luis Castillo. However, Toronto is hoping that Ross Stripling can fill in for Ryu, and that Pearson can eventually get healthy and provide some extra rotation depth — at least until more reinforcements can be added at the trade deadline.
The team’s approximate $172.3MM payroll is a franchise high, though also not too far beyond what the Blue Jays were spending as recently as 2017. While a splurge into the $200MM threshold seems unlikely, there hasn’t been any indication that the Jays have hit the top end of their budget, so some payroll space will quite probably be available for more in-season additions.
The good news for the Jays is that even as presently configured, the roster looks like a contender. While nothing can really be ruled out for a team in win-now mode, much of the heavy lifting has already been done over the offseason to reinforce an already strong core.
Top Draft Prospect Dylan Lesko Undergoes Tommy John Surgery
Right-hander Dylan Lesko, one of the top prospects in the entire 2022 draft class, underwent Tommy John surgery yesterday, reports Kiley McDaniel of ESPN (Twitter link).
Even in spite of the surgery, McDaniel suggests that Lesko could still be the first pitcher off the board in a draft class that skews heavily toward position players. The 6’3″, 195-pound righty out of Buford High School in Georgia has a commitment to Vanderbilt and is regarded by both McDaniel and Baseball America as the clear top pitcher in this year’s class.
Earlier this month, when sharing video from one of Lesko’s outings (what proved to be his final start of 2022), McDaniel tweeted that Lesko showed a mid-90s heater with a plus curveball and the “best amateur changeup I’ve ever seen.” Carlos Collazo and Tom Lipari of Baseball America feel similarly, writing that Lesko has plus-plus (i.e. 70-grade) feel for his changeup and labeling him a “special” talent that “doesn’t come around very often.”
[Related: 2022 MLB Draft Order]
Because of the inherent risk associated with any high school pitching prospect, Lesko hasn’t been listed at the very top of draft boards — and the recent surgery likely ensures that he won’t be as the July draft approaches. McDaniel now has Lesko eighth on his draft list. Baseball America ranked him sixth prior to the injury. Notably, between high school outfielder Druw Jones (son of Andruw Jones) and shortstop Jackson Holliday (son of Matt Holliday), there are a pair of intriguing second-generation talents who are expected to come off the board in the first 10 picks of this summer’s draft.
Orioles’ Brandon Hyde Under Contract Through At Least 2023
The Orioles have been abnormally quiet about the status of manager Brandon Hyde’s contract, only announcing his initial hiring on a three-year deal that spanned the 2019-21 seasons. Dan Connolly of The Athletic reported back in September that Hyde had quietly signed an extension in the summer of 2020 — a deal that’d carry him at least through the current season. Baltimore never announced the deal. Now, Nathan Ruiz of the Baltimore Sun reports that Hyde is under contract beyond the 2022 season. The specific terms of his deal still aren’t clear, as the Orioles and Hyde have clearly preferred to keep them close to the vest.
Nevertheless, it’s notable to learn that Hyde isn’t playing out the season under the dreaded “lame-duck” managerial status. That he’s under control for at least another year is an ostensible vote of confidence in Hyde, who is clearly being evaluated on far more than the team’s win-loss record. That’s true of any manager in today’s game but is particularly true for skippers who are leading clubs in Baltimore’s situation.
It’d hardly be fair for the front office to fault Hyde for the team’s consistent losing records, after all, when the baseball operations staff has spent his entire managerial tenure tanking in an effort to perennially bolster its draft position. Beyond that, the O’s have routinely traded away big league-caliber players as they near free agency. Hyde’s rosters have been disproportionately comprised of waiver claims, minor league signings and organizational depth pieces who’ve been pushed into larger roles as the front office has eschewed any real free-agent spending or win-now trade acquisitions.
Ruiz spoke to several Orioles players, including clubhouse leaders like Trey Mancini, Cedric Mullins, Austin Hays and Paul Fry — all of whom went on record to effuse praise for Hyde. All noted Hyde’s consistency even amid protracted losing streaks, with Mancini noting that Hyde is “the same guy every day.” Mancini in particular was appreciative of Hyde and the role he played as a support pillar when Mancini was diagnosed with stage-three colon cancer in the spring of 2020.
While three-plus seasons of rebuilding — and the frequent losses associated with it — might take their toll on a manager, Hyde spoke optimistically and enthusiastically about the organization’s future in his interview with Ruiz. he remains committed to the O’s, stressing that he’s “in this for the long haul” and that he’ll “be here when we’re winning.” O’s fans, in particular, will want to check out the full interview for quotes from Mancini, Mullins, Hays, Fry, Ryan Mountcastle, Hyde and GM Mike Elias on the job the skipper has done under challenging circumstances.
Blue Jays Notes: Second Base, Hernandez, Jansen, Ryu, Pearson
A good portion of the Blue Jays’ offseason was focused on finding infield help, both to replace the departing Marcus Semien and perhaps to create an avenue for Cavan Biggio to move back from third base to second base. Defensive metrics weren’t particularly fond of Biggio’s work at third base, but he has generally solid marks in more than 1000 innings at second.
The Jays indeed found a left-side upgrade in the form of Matt Chapman, who’ll not only serve as a defensive improvement over Biggio at third base but will also help to offset shortstop Bo Bichette‘s below-average range. Chapman’s addition looked to move Biggio back to second base, at least as the larger half of a platoon with Santiago Espinal, but as Sportsnet’s Arden Zwelling writes, it’s Espinal who looks to have seized the full-time job at the position.
Espinal, 27, is hitting .268/.333/.464 (128 wRC+) and, as importantly, has already posted sizable plus marks in Defensive Runs Saved (3) and Outs Above Average (3) through just 135 innings at second base. It’s still just 63 plate appearances, but Espinal has solid walk (7.9%, slightly below average) and strikeout (22.2%, slightly better than average) rates thus far in addition to a huge 48.8% hard-hit rate to begin the season.
Espinal’s play alone would likely have boosted the size of his role, but Biggio’s placement on the Covid-related injured list yesterday could further open the door, at least in the short-term, for Espinal to continue impressing. The Jays didn’t announce that Biggio had tested positive, though GM Ross Atkins told reporters that he’s been exhibiting potential symptoms (Twitter link via TSN’s Scott Mitchell).
Atkins also provided some updates on a pair of injured Jays, noting that slugging right fielder Teoscar Hernandez, who’s on the injured list with an oblique strain, could progress to live batting practice within a few days’ time. Hernandez was placed on the injured list back on April 14, and the Jays have felt his absence. Offseason acquisitions Raimel Tapia and Bradley Zimmer have been pressed into larger roles, but neither has produced at the plate. Tapia is hitting .236/.232/.327 in 58 plate appearances, while Zimmer is just 2-for-22 with one walk and 10 punchouts. Both Tapia and Zimmer have connected on a home run, but that doesn’t offset their general dearth of production.
Catcher Danny Jansen, per Atkins, is behind Hernandez and isn’t yet ready to swing a bat. Jansen homered twice in eight plate appearances before going down with an oblique strain of his own back on April 11. In his stead, the Jays have gotten a solid OBP out of Alejandro Kirk and a massive .306/.324/.611 output in 37 plate appearances from trade pickup Zack Collins. While Collins’ 35.7% strikeout rate portends a good bit of regression, he’s been productive enough for now that Toronto has even given him five starts at designated hitter.
On the pitching side of things, lefty Hyun Jin Ryu is slated for a live bullpen session this week that’ll determine his next steps (Twitter link from Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi). He’s currently dealing with a forearm injury. Righty Nate Pearson, currently out with a bout of mononucleosis, is slated to throw to hitters this weekend and could go on a rehab assignment next week. Atkins noted that Pearson may be ticketed for a “bulky” role, suggesting a multi-inning relief assignment once he’s back on the roster (link via MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson).
Still just 25 years old, Pearson isn’t far removed from ranking as the top-ranked right-handed pitching prospect in the game. The former first-rounder has electric stuff, evidenced by a fastball that averaged 97.7 mph in last year’s tiny sample of 15 big league innings. However, he’s been limited by elbow and groin injuries since making his 2020 debut, and Pearson also underwent offseason surgery to repair a sports hernia.
With just 45 2/3 innings between Triple-A and the Majors combined last season, plus 18 innings in 2020 (and some work at the Jays’ alternate training site), Pearson likely wouldn’t be relied upon to work a traditional starter’s slate of innings anyhow. The hope for the long term is surely that he’s able to eventually realize his top-of-the-rotation potential, but a hybrid role seems more prudent at this time, given the limited workloads in recent seasons. Pearson could yet make some starts this season, but with Ryu, Jose Berrios, Kevin Gausman, Alek Manoah, Yusei Kikuchi and swingman Ross Stripling all on the big league roster, plus Anthony Kay and Thomas Hatch in Triple-A but on the 40-man roster, the Jays have the depth to more strategically build Pearson up for 2023 and beyond.
Correa Open To Long-Term Deal With Twins
The common consensus when Carlos Correa signed a surprising three-year, $105.3MM contract with the Twins was that he’d take his opt-out clause at the end of this season and re-enter the market. However, Correa recently spoke with Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and revealed that he’s already expressed to Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey, general manager Thad Levine and manager Rocco Baldelli that he would “love” to sign a longer-term deal.
“I told ‘em, ‘Hey guys, I know I have the opt-outs in the contract. But I really like it here,'” Correa tells Rosenthal. “I love the people here. I love the way I’m treated here. … I would love to have a long-term relationship here if that’s what you guys would like.” Correa adds that his wife already feels “right at home” in Minnesota and that he’s been energized by his teammates, specifically lauding the scalding-hot Byron Buxton as well as the overall win-now temperament throughout the clubhouse.
On the one hand, it’s hardly a surprise to see Correa express a willingness to sign a lengthy contract. He hit the open market this past offseason seeking a contract of at least 10 years in length and only pivoted to the three-year, opt-out-laden deal with the Twins after he did not find a longer-term deal to his liking. Any player would surely “love” to sign a long-term deal of the magnitude Correa sought in free agency. (The Tigers reportedly offered Correa a 10-year deal worth $275MM with multiple opt-out opportunities, but he was said to be seeking a deal north of $330MM.)
On the other hand, it’s also common for players to decline to discuss contractual matters during the season. We regularly see players who are on the cusp of free agency set Opening Day deadlines for a new contract because they prefer not to negotiate during the season. As a newly signed free agent, Correa is in a different boat than, say, Aaron Judge, who did not agree to terms on a long-term deal with the Yankees before his own Opening Day deadline, but it’s nevertheless of at least some note that Correa is publicly expressing a desire to stay put. He’d hardly have been the first player to simply decline to discuss the matter when asked and instead say he’ll think about that after the season.
From the Twins’ side of things, Falvey declined to delve into specifics but said that even when signing Correa to his three-year deal, the organization’s hope was that the shortstop would find Minnesota to his liking and hope to stay long-term. “I certainly expect we’ll maintain open lines of communication with both Carlos and [agent Scott Boras],” Falvey added.
There’s no getting around the fact that Correa is out to a poor start. It’s only 59 plate appearances, but Correa is hitting .192/.288/.288 with a homer and a pair of doubles. Statcast feels he’s been unlucky based on his huge 92.4 mph average exit velocity and a sky-high 58.8% hard-hit rate, but that “bad luck” only applies when Correa actually puts the ball in play. He’s doing that less often than ever, with a 30.5% strikeout rate that’s nearly 10 percentage points higher than his career 20.7% mark. Statcast credits him for an “expected” .230 average and .394 slugging percentage, but he’ll need to curb the strikeouts if he’s to return to his prior levels of production.
For his part, Correa made clear that he’s not concerned. The former Rookie of the Year, All-Star and 2021 Platinum Glove winner said he’s struggled to find his swing in April in the past, and a look at his career splits does reflect, to an extent, that he’s been more productive in subsequent months. That said, Correa has a career 123 wRC+ in March/April that towers over his current 77. Baldelli noted that Correa received fewer than half the spring plate appearances he might’ve in a normal year — a reflection both of the truncated Spring Training schedule and Correa’s own late signing.
Assuming Correa eventually rounds into form at the plate and that the Twins indeed have a desire to keep him longer-term — Baldelli raved to Rosenthal about Correa’s presence in the clubhouse and leadership traits — the question becomes one of whether they can comfortably make such a commitment. Signing Correa would likely require an unprecedented commitment for the franchise, given that the largest contract ever issued by the Twins was Joe Mauer‘s eight-year, $184MM pact. That contract came with a unique set of circumstances, as Mauer was a former No. 1 overall pick and St. Paul native who’d just been named American League MVP in 2009 — the final season at the Metrodome before the Twins moved into a new, largely publicly funded stadium, Target Field. The public relations impact of letting Mauer walk as a free agent after the 2010 season would’ve been overwhelming; that’s not the case with Correa, whom many fans expect to opt out and sign elsewhere next winter.
Still, you’d be hard-pressed to claim the Twins “can’t afford” to keep Correa, if the front office and Boras can agree on a structure. Minnesota’s payroll this season is a franchise-record $138MM, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez, and the Twins only have $76MM in guarantees on next year’s books. Correa’s $35.1MM salary accounts for nearly half that sum. By 2024, the Twins have just $54.5MM on the books — again, with Correa representing a major portion of that figure. Beginning in 2025, the Twins only have a bit more than $18MM on the books.
Over the long-term, Buxton’s seven-year, $100MM contract is the only major commitment the Twins have. He’ll earn a $15MM base salary on that deal from 2023-28, though that figure can jump by as much as $10.5MM annually based on total plate appearances and MVP voting. Still, even in a year where Buxton were to max out that figure, he’d only do so by staying healthy and winning an MVP Award. The Twins would happily pay $25.5MM in that scenario, and even pairing that with a hefty annual salary for Correa, the combined $55-60MM would be a fraction of the team’s overall spending. It doesn’t seem likely that the Twins will be running $200MM payrolls anytime soon, but it’s also reasonable to project some modest increases over this year’s $138MM mark.
The Twins would need to fill out the roster beyond those two players, of course, but they’re bullish on a crop of young pitching headlined by Opening Day starter Joe Ryan, to say nothing of young arms like Bailey Ober, Josh Winder and Jhoan Duran, all of whom are already in the big leagues. Prospects Jordan Balazovic, Simeon Woods Richardson, Louie Varland, Cole Sands and others aren’t expected to be far behind, and slugging infielder Jose Miranda ought to make his MLB debut at some point in 2022 as well. Signing Correa would perhaps block top infield prospects Royce Lewis and Austin Martin, but both have experience playing multiple positions. Not all of those players will emerge as contributors, but it’s easier to stomach a long-term, near-market-value deal when expecting an influx of cost-controlled young talent to help fill out the roster.
It’s still difficult to imagine the Twins ponying up with this kind of commitment, if only for the simple reason that they’ve just never spent at this level in the past. There’s a strong likelihood Correa will be back on the market after the season. That said, it was also difficult to imagine the Twins handing out a $35.1MM annual salary to Correa in the first place, and that contract at least changed some expectations and made a larger deal seem slightly more plausible. It’d still register as a surprise, but it’s easier to take the “never say never” tack now that the Twins have already pulled off one Correa stunner.
Fans intrigued by the situation will want to check out Rosenthal’s column in full, as it’s rife with detailed quotes from each of Correa, Falvey, Baldelli and Boras regarding the possibility of Correa extending his stay in Minnesota. There’s no indication that talks will happen anytime soon, but the Twins were active on the in-season extension front last year when trying to hammer out Buxton’s long-term deal prior to the trade deadline. A larger deal for Correa could be even more complicated, but all parties seem open to the idea.
Outrights: Stewart, Romero
A pair of players recently designated for assignment have cleared waivers and been outrighted to Triple-A.
- The Orioles announced this afternoon they’ve outrighted corner outfielder DJ Stewart to their top affiliate in Norfolk. Stewart has a bit shy of the three years of MLB service required for a player to refuse the first outright assignment of their career. He’ll remain with the Tides — where he’d been on optional assignment before he was DFA last week — and try to play his way back onto the 40-man roster. A former first-round pick, the 28-year-old Stewart has appeared in 195 MLB games over the past five seasons. He owns a .213/.327/.400 line in 622 plate appearances, almost exactly league average offensive production by measure of wRC+. Coupled with below-average defensive metrics in both left and right field, that fine but unexciting output at the dish wasn’t enough for the lefty-hitting Stewart to hold his roster spot. He’s a .255/.353/.442 hitter over 773 Triple-A plate appearances.
- Athletics right-hander Miguel Romero was outrighted to their highest affiliate in Las Vegas over the weekend, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. Like Stewart, he has never been outrighted before and doesn’t have three-plus service years, so he’ll stick in the organization as a non-roster player. Romero, also 28, has yet to make his MLB debut. Oakland selected him to the 40-man roster over the 2020-21 offseason, but he spent all of last season on optional assignment in Las Vegas. Romero was tagged for a 6.27 ERA with just a 15.7% strikeout rate in that extremely hitter-friendly environment last year. He’ll look for better results with the Aviators in an effort to get back onto the 40-man roster.
Giants Acquire Kevin Padlo From Mariners
The Giants have acquired corner infielder Kevin Padlo from the Mariners for cash, according to announcements from both teams. The M’s had designated him for assignment over the weekend. San Francisco has optioned Padlo to Triple-A Sacramento, while the team had a pair of 40-man roster spots available after recently placing Mike Yastrzemski and Zack Littell on the COVID-19 injured list.
Padlo has just ten MLB games under his belt, but he’s now on his fourth different organization. Originally a fifth-round pick of the Rockies, he was dealt to the Rays as part of the swap saw Jake McGee and Germán Márquez head to Denver. Padlo was in the low minors at the time, and he spent the next few seasons climbing up the Tampa Bay system. His minors tenure was a bit up-and-down, but he had an excellent 2019 campaign split between the top two levels.
That strong showing against high-level pitching set Padlo up to reach the majors for the first time last season. He debuted in April and appeared in nine games but spent most of the season on optional assignment to Triple-A Durham. He struggled to a .194/.270/.379 line there, and Tampa Bay designated him for assignment in August. Seattle grabbed him off waivers, but his Mariners tenure consisted of a lone pinch-hitting appearance during a game in Arizona last September.
Padlo began this year with Triple-A Tacoma, where he’s gotten off to a slow start. He is hitting just .173/.317/.327 through 15 games, striking out in 36.5% of his plate appearances. The M’s bumped Padlo off their 40-man roster when they acquired outfielder Stuart Fairchild from the D-Backs on Saturday.
Over the winter, Baseball America slotted the 25-year-old as the #24 prospect in the Seattle system. BA praised his huge raw power and wrote that he’s athletic enough to play average defense at third base, but the outlet also raised questions about his bat-to-ball skills. Padlo is a .235/.330/.469 hitter in 621 career Triple-A plate appearances. He’s hit 31 homers with a robust 11.4% walk percentage in that time, but a 29.4% strikeout rate speaks to his hit tool concerns.
The Southern California native is in his final minor league option year. The Giants can shuttle him between San Francisco and Sacramento for the remainder of the season, if he sticks on the 40-man roster. He’ll add some right-handed depth to a third base group that is currently without Evan Longoria. Non-roster players Alex Blandino and Wyatt Mathisen are also righty-swinging infielders with the River Cats, but both players have gotten off to tough starts in 2022.
COVID Notes: Pirates, Brewers, Giants
A few players landed on the COVID-19 injured list today. It’s not clear whether anyone in this group tested positive for the virus or has been identified as a close contact or a symptomatic individual. Players on the COVID IL don’t count against a team’s 40-man roster.
The latest virus-related situations:
- The Pirates placed outfielders Bryan Reynolds and Cole Tucker on the injured list before this evening’s game against the Brewers. Prospects Tucupita Marcano and Jack Suwinski were recalled to take their place on the active roster. Each of Reynolds and Tucker has struggled in the early going, but the former was one of the game’s best players last season and figures to turn things around whenever he’s ready to return. Marcano and Suwinski were both acquired from the Padres in last summer’s Adam Frazier deal. It’s the first MLB call for the 23-year-old Suwinski, who was selected onto the 40-man roster last offseason. The left-handed outfielder is off to a fantastic .353/.421/.686 start with Double-A Altoona this year.
- The Brewers had their own virus-related move before tonight’s game. Catcher Víctor Caratini went on the IL this afternoon. Backstop Alex Jackson, acquired from the Marlins during Spring Training, has been recalled from Triple-A Nashville in a corresponding move. Caratini has appeared in eight games as part of a loose early-season platoon with Omar Narváez. The latter will probably assume the lion’s share of work behind the dish so long as Caratini is sidelined. Jackson has hit .229/.300/.429 with a pair of homers in ten games with the Sounds.
- The Giants have placed reliever Zack Littell on the IL, tweets Maria Guardado of MLB.com. Kervin Castro has been recalled to take his place on the active roster. Littell has gotten off to a nice start to the season, tossing six scoreless innings in as many appearances. He’s allowed four hits, struck out five and has yet to issue a walk. Littell pitched to a 2.92 ERA in 61 2/3 frames last year.