Padres Name Shane Robinson Double-A Bench Coach
The Padres announced their 2022 minor league coaching staffs yesterday, including the hiring of Shane Robinson as the bench coach for the Double-A San Antonio Missions. The news would seemingly indicate that the 37-year-old Robinson is retiring from playing after 15 seasons.
Best known for his time with the Cardinals, Robinson was a fifth-round pick for St. Louis in the 2006 draft, and he appeared in 268 big league games with the club from 2009-14. Robinson then moved on to play with the Twins, Angels, and Yankees over the next four seasons, while also inking minor league deals with Cleveland, Philadelphia, and Atlanta but not seeing any action on their active rosters. His career also took him to the Australian Baseball League and Mexican League within the last three years, and he wrapped up his playing days with a brief five-game stint with the Acereros de Monclova in 2021.
Overall, Robinson hit .221/.288/.292 over 849 plate appearances in the majors, playing in 461 games over parts of nine MLB seasons. Strong glovework was a big reason for that lengthy career, as Robinson was a very solid outfielder capable of playing at all three positions on the grass. Robinson posted +26 Defensive Runs Saved and +12.4 UZR/150 over his 1792 2/3 career innings in the outfield, with above-average career scores as a center fielder and both corner outfield spots.
MLB Trade Rumors congratulates Robinson on his career achievements, and we wish him the best in his move to a coaching career.
Rockies Hire Jordan Pacheco As Triple-A Hitting Coach
The Rockies have named former infielder/catcher Jordan Pacheco as the new hitting coach for their Triple-A affiliate in Albuquerque. Pacheco officially retired this past August, and will now move immediately into coaching following the end of his 14 seasons as a player.
Pacheco was a ninth-round pick for Colorado in the 2007 draft, and he spent most of his career in the Rockies organization, including 270 of his 377 big league games. His first full season was his most impressive, as Pacheco hit .309/.341/.421 over 505 plate appearances in 2012, earning a sixth-place finish in NL Rookie Of The Year voting.
Appearing in parts of six seasons from 2011-16, Pacheco hit .272/.310/.365 over 1149 PA with the Rockies, Diamondbacks, and Reds. Something of a unique type of utility player, Pacheco spent the majority of his time as a corner infielder but also significant action as a catcher, making him an interesting depth option on a big league bench.
Pacheco also spent time in the minors in the Braves, Twins, and Mariners organizations since 2016, but a return call to the big leagues never came. His minor league experience also included stints in the Mexican League and the independent Atlantic League, and Pacheco finished his career with a .998 OPS over 161 PA with the Atlantic League’s Lexington Legends in 2021.
After retiring, Pacheco quickly transitioned into a coaching role with the Grand Junction Rockies of the MLB-affiliated Pioneer League. Now moving into this notable role with the Triple-A Isotopes, Pacheco told MLB.com’s Thomas Harding that he is hoping to keep climbing the ladder in this next phase of his baseball career.
“I’m always a dreamer. I see myself doing things and I do see myself managing in the big leagues someday. But how I approach things and how I’ve always done it is I’m going to see where I’m at,” Pacheco said. “But I’m not going to stop having those dreams, because I think that’s going to make me a better hitting coach. It’s going to push me to learn as much as I can, and it’s going to push me to evolve with this game and help these guys become better.”
We at MLB Trade Rumors congratulate Pacheco on a fine career, and we wish him great success in his coaching endeavors.
Carlos Correa Switches Agencies, Hires Boras Corporation
Free agent shortstop Carlos Correa has switched agencies and is now a client of Scott Boras and the Boras Corporation, according to Mark Berman of Fox 26. Correa had previously been represented by William Morris Endeavor.
Going into the offseason, Correa was widely considered to be part of a two-headed top of the free agent class, along with Corey Seager. Both offered similar appeal to prospective teams, as both shortstops entered free agency at the age of 27 and offered elite production on both sides of the ball. MLBTR placed Correa at the top of the annual Top 50 Free Agents, projecting him for a contract of $320MM over ten years, with Seager just behind in the number two slot and a projection of $305MM over ten years. Seager, represented by the Boras Corporation, beat his projection when the Rangers signed him to a ten-year deal worth $325MM. Correa, meanwhile, did not find a contract to his liking before the lockout and remains a free agent.
Back in September 2019, Correa took the unusual step of hiring WME to represent him, despite the fact that they were more of a show business agency and did not have longstanding MLB agents at that time. Back in September 2021, it was reported that the company was still trying to expand its baseball operations, hiring former Angels general manager Billy Eppler, along with some agents who had previously been with Excel Sports Management and CAA. (Eppler subsequently left WME to become general manager of the Mets.)
However, the most recent news surrounding the agency had been their parent company Endeavor’s attempts to purchase a variety of minor league teams, something which drew the ire of the MLBPA. In a report from Evan Drellich of The Athletic last week, he noted that the union had “warned WME Sports player representatives that they risk losing their certification as agents unless they divest themselves from the company.” MLBPA is in charge of agent accreditation and their regulations prohibit agents from acquiring or holding financial interests in professional baseball teams unless authorized by the MLBPA to do so. There is no evidence that the situation regarding WME and their minor league investments had anything to do with Correa’s departure, nor did Correa offer an explanation for his choice other than to praise the Boras Corporation’s expertise and experience.
Now Correa will exit the lockout with the sport’s most high profile agent in his corner to help him navigate what is widely expected to be a chaotic frenzy of activity, as teams and players try to finalize deals in the short window between a new CBA being signed and a new season beginning. Boras figures to have his hands full in that time, as he also represents other notable free agents, such as Nick Castellanos, Kris Bryant and Carlos Rodon.
Trade Candidate: Ian Happ
After many months of rumors and speculation, the Cubs finally pulled the ripcord on their rebuild in earnest at last year’s trade deadline. In quick succession, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, Craig Kimbrel, Ryan Tepera, Andrew Chafin, Jake Marisnick and Trevor Williams were all given opportunities elsewhere.
Now the roster mostly consists of new faces, a combination of players with limited big league resumes and more experienced players acquired since the offseason began. That leaves five-year veteran Ian Happ as one of the longer tenured Cubs remaining, despite having just turned 27 in August. Assuming there are no drastic changes to the service time structure in the upcoming CBA, the Cubs can keep Happ around for two more seasons via arbitration. That makes him an interesting trade chip if the Cubs don’t return to being competitive in the next two years.
How hard they intend to try to compete in the short-term is an open question at this point. After such an aggressive selloff, it stands to reason that they will take some time executing the standard rebuild playbook of focusing on loading the farm system with prospects and using the big league team to evaluate younger talent. Going into the offseason, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said that the club would be “really active in free agency” but “spend money intelligently.” Since then, the club has been more active than some expected, adding Wade Miley, Yan Gomes and Marcus Stroman. However, the team still has flaws. It’s just one metric, but FanGraphs’ Depth Charts currently peg the Cubs 27th in the league in projected WAR for 2022.
The team could certainly still pursue upgrades, as their projected $114MM payroll, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource, would be almost $90MM shy of their franchise record, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. However, they have mostly eschewed lengthy commitments recently, meaning that their books open up even more after 2023. Willson Contreras and Wade Miley are set to reach free agency after this year, Jason Heyward after 2023. Kyle Hendricks and Yan Gomes have two guaranteed years remaining, with the Cubs holding club options over both for 2024. That means that the only guarantees for 2024 are the $21MM for the last year of Marcus Stroman’s deal, which he has the ability to opt out of, and the last guaranteed year of David Bote‘s extension, which is just $5.5MM. (There are also opt-outs of $1MM and $500K on Bote’s options for 2025 and 2026.)
Perhaps the most logical course for the Cubs from here is to spend two years figuring out which young players are part of the future and then using those empty books to decide how to spend money building around them. They could then spend wildly on their areas of greatest need, as the Tigers and Rangers have done this offseason.
Coming out of the lockout, it’s widely expected that there will be a mad flurry of transactions, perhaps rivalling or even surpassing the frenzy that occurred prior to the lockout. The Cubs would be able to be patient, as Happ would likely have just as much appeal at the trade deadline. He can fit on just about any club’s roster as he has versatility in more ways than one. For starters, he’s a switch hitter, although he does have a significant platoon split. (Career wRC+ of 121 from the left side but just 85 from the right.) Secondly, he’s can play most positions on the diamond. Although he’s played more outfield than infield in the past couple seasons, he still saw time at first, second and third base in 2021. The last time he played more than 20 games in a season at any one infield position was the 44 games he played at second base back in 2017, but teams still love a player with versatility, even if they hope not to need it.
Even if most teams don’t view Happ as a realistic infield target, he will still have appeal for his bat. In each of his five seasons, he’s posted above-average numbers by measure of wRC+, despite also racking up strikeouts at a rate above the league average. His career line thus far is .241/.338/.467, wRC+ of 112, strikeout rate of 30.8%. In 2021, he slumped slightly to a line of .226/.323/.434, but that was still good enough for a wRC+ of 103. There’s also room for optimism when one considers that Happ spent time on the IL in May for a rib contusion and improved as he distanced himself from that. His wRC+ in June was 32, followed by a 59 in July, 124 in August and 167 in September/October. He’s also projected to make a salary of $6.5MM this year through arbitration, as per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, which is affordable for even the lighter spending teams in the league.
As mentioned, there’s no hurry to move Happ. He has two years of club control and maybe the Cubs can even surprise some people by surpassing expectations in the meantime. After all, it’s widely expected that the new CBA will include an expanded postseason field of some kind. Even hovering around .500 might be good enough to sneak in. Or if not, he could be flipped for younger players with the potential to be part of the next great Cubs team. Whichever way it works out, Happ could be useful to the team, whether he continues wearing their uniform or not.
Should The Reds Trade Any Of Their High-End Starters?
It wasn’t an encouraging start to the winter for Reds fans. After trading Tucker Barnhart and waiving Wade Miley in moves that amounted to little more than salary dumps, general manager Nick Krall famously spoke of “aligning … payroll to our resources.” That hinted at a lack of forthcoming additions, and indeed, the Reds have yet to sign a free agent to a major league deal this offseason.
That said, the Reds haven’t yet orchestrated a sell-off. Barnhart’s a well-respected veteran backstop, but Tyler Stephenson is ready to assume an everyday role. It’s harder to defend cutting Miley, controllable via $10MM club option and coming off a 163-inning, 3.37 ERA season. Yet the soft-tossing Miley is always walking a fine line relying on weak, ground-ball contact. If his run prevention regresses closer to last season’s 4.52 SIERA, that option price would be more reasonable than an immense bargain.
Krall predictably didn’t offer specifics about the franchise’s payroll target for 2022. Currently, they’re projected for $115MM in player expenditures, including estimated salaries for arbitration-eligible players (via Jason Martinez of Roster Resource). That’s a touch shy of last year’s season-opening $122MM mark (according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts). Perhaps the Reds have already “aligned” their payroll by parting with Barnhart and Miley and letting Nick Castellanos hit free agency.
If the Reds were either looking to cut costs or add some young talent to the organization, the most straightforward way to do so would be by further subtracting from the rotation. Cincinnati’s top three starters — Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle and Sonny Gray — are all under club control through 2023 (assuming free agency trajectory isn’t affected by the new collective bargaining agreement). And unlike some other Reds with notable salaries (i.e. Mike Moustakas, Eugenio Suárez) whom the Reds might want to trade, the rotation members should be in high demand around the league.
Luis Castillo
Castillo, projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $7.6MM salary in his penultimate arbitration season, tossed 187 2/3 innings with a 3.98 ERA last year. That was his highest mark in three years, but the 29-year-old found his footing after a tough start. He posted a 2.73 ERA from June onwards, with his generally excellent combination of strikeouts (26%) and grounders (59.9%).
Simply ignoring the first two months of the season, when Castillo had an awful 7.22 ERA and subpar 19.3% strikeout percentage, is obviously simplistic. Yet the right-hander’s three-year track record is excellent, and he possesses a fantastic arsenal. Owner of one of baseball’s best changeups and a fastball that averages north of 97 MPH, Castillo seems the most likely of the Reds starters to offer top-of-the-rotation production over the next two years. He’s been the subject of trade rumors in each of the last two offseasons, but reports about the team’s willingness to make him available have varied.
Tyler Mahle
As with Castillo, it’s not clear how willing the Reds seem to be to trade Mahle. He hasn’t been the subject of as many rumors as his top rotation mates this winter. Yet there’d be plenty of appeal if Cincinnati were amenable to moving him. At 27, he’s the youngest of the Reds top trio of starters. Projected for a $5.6MM salary in his second-to-last arbitration year, he’s likely to be the most affordable. And one could make the case he’s coming off the best 2021 campaign of the three.
Mahle’s 3.75 ERA was lower than either of Castillo’s or Gray’s marks. His 27.7% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk percentage bettered the others’ respective figures. He’s not the elite ground-ball guy those others are, but Mahle looks to have made the leap to quality mid-rotation arm over the past two seasons.
Mahle misses bats with both his mid-90s heater and his two secondary pitches — a cutter-slider and a split. The development of the latter offering has proven especially useful in helping the right-hander overcome platoon troubles, as he leans somewhat frequently on the split when facing left-handed batters. After giving up a massive .290/.384/.547 line when at a platoon disadvantage through his first three MLB seasons, he’s held southpaws to a pitiful .194/.280/.306 mark since the start of 2020.
Sonny Gray
Gray is playing out the 2022 campaign on a $10.667MM contract, and he’s controllable for 2023 via $12.5MM club option. That makes him the costliest of the Reds starters, yet it’s still an obvious bargain for a pitcher who has been as effective as Gray has since landing in Cincinnati.
The right-hander has posted above-average strikeout and ground-ball marks in all three of his seasons with the Reds. Gray may not have quite as pristine of control as Castillo or Mahle possess, but his walk rates aren’t all that concerning. Last year’s 4.19 ERA is more fine than great, but he posted respective 2.87 and 3.70 marks over the two prior seasons. And the 32-year-old Gray was among the sport’s best pitchers at suppressing hard contact, with the Reds mediocre team defense perhaps explaining a bit of a gap between his actual ERA and estimators like FIP, SIERA and xERA — all of which pegged his performance between 3.25 and 3.99.
On the surface, Gray looks like the pitcher the Reds might be most willing to make available. Trading him would knock more money off the books than would a Castillo or Mahle deal, perhaps freeing some room for the front office to address needs in the outfield and/or bullpen. Yet Castillo or Mahle would probably pull stronger returns if they were moved. Trading Gray alone be something of a half-measure: not enough to bring in an influx of impact young talent, while further weakening a roster that finished marginally above .500 last season and has lost or is likely to lose both Miley and Castellanos.
Krall and his staff seem to be in a difficult spot, overseeing a roster that looks a bit shy of contention but without the financial backing to fix its most glaring deficiencies. How they choose to proceed with their trio of high-end starters is yet to be determined, but there’s a compelling argument to move any of the group, as well as a sound case for keeping the entire rotation intact. After all, with two years of control apiece, they should each still be in demand (barring injury) if the team is sputtering by next summer’s trade deadline.
We’ll let MLBTR readers weigh in on the situation. How should the Reds proceed coming out of the lockout?
(poll link for app users)
How Should The Reds Handle Their Rotation?
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Keep all three pitchers. 30% (1,873)
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Only trade Gray; keep Castillo and Mahle. 25% (1,602)
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Trade all three pitchers. 19% (1,220)
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Trade Gray and Castillo. 11% (701)
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Only trade Castillo; keep Gray and Mahle. 6% (381)
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Trade Gray and Mahle. 4% (265)
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Only trade Mahle; keep Castillo and Gray. 2% (152)
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Trade Castillo and Mahle. 2% (99)
Total votes: 6,293
NPB’s Seibu Lions Sign Burch Smith
The Seibu Lions of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball announced yesterday that they’ve signed right-hander Burch Smith. The 31-year-old elected minor league free agency at the end of the season after being outrighted off the A’s 40-man roster in September.
Smith has appeared in parts of five big league seasons, including each of the past four. He broke in with ten appearances for the 2013 Padres but didn’t make it back to the game’s highest level until 2018, when he tossed 78 innings as a Rule 5 draftee with the Royals. He managed just a 6.92 ERA that year, though, and he was cut loose at the end of the season.
The following winter, Smith latched on with the Brewers on a minor league pact. He cracked the MLB roster by May and spent a few months on the 40-man before being designated for assignment. He landed with the Giants on waivers, then was traded to the A’s over the offseason as part of an ultra-rare swap between Bay Area clubs. Smith spent two seasons with Oakland, tossing 12 innings of three-run ball during the abbreviated 2020 campaign but struggling to a 5.40 ERA over 43 1/3 innings last year.
Since returning to the majors in 2018, Smith owns a 5.78 ERA with a slightly below-average 19.9% strikeout rate across 154 2/3 innings. Until last season, though, he’d generated some decent swing-and-miss rates and he’s been quite stingy with walks over the past two years. Smith has worked exclusively as a reliever since 2018, but Lions’ general manager Hisanobu Watanabe indicated as part of the team’s press release that he’d be given an opportunity to land a spot in their starting rotation.
Dodgers Promote Brandon Gomes To General Manager
The Dodgers announced this afternoon that they’ve promoted Brandon Gomes from assistant general manager to general manager. The move solidifies Gomes as a key member of a Los Angeles front office that also includes senior vice president Josh Byrnes and is helmed by president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman.
The move doesn’t come as much of a surprise. Gomes was mentioned as a candidate in the Mets search for a new front office leader earlier in the offseason, but reports out of New York fairly quickly suggested it likelier he would be promoted to Dodgers GM instead. (The Mets eventually landed on Billy Eppler). With Friedman still running the front office in L.A., Gomes’ promotion doesn’t come with the same level of roster control that landing the Mets job would have provided. Yet it affords him a notable step up in title and likely contains some form of pay bump for the 37-year-old to remain in a setting in which he’s obviously comfortable.
Gomes has climbed the front office ranks rather quickly over the past few years. The Massachusetts native began his pro career as a player in 2007, making his big league debut by May 2011. He spent the next four seasons as a middle relief option with the Rays. Tampa Bay outrighted Gomes off their 40-man roster following the 2015 campaign. After a minor league deal with the Cubs didn’t result in another big league opportunity, Gomes hung up his spikes and joined the Los Angeles front office. He reunited with Friedman — formerly Tampa Bay’s general manager — in Southern California.
Within a year, Gomes had ascended to director of player development. After a season in that role, he was promoted to AGM. Three years later, Gomes gets the nod as general manager, a notable step for the organization. With Friedman leading the charge as president of baseball ops, the Dodgers’ GM position has sat vacant in the three-plus years since Farhan Zaidi departed to become president of baseball operations with the archrival Giants.
By promoting Gomes to GM, the Dodgers could ward off interest among other clubs in poaching him, as the Mets apparently expressed this winter. Teams typically only allow their employees to interview elsewhere if a rival club is willing to offer a step up in title. A president of baseball ops or chief baseball officer position would qualify, but it’s unlikely the Dodgers would allow Gomes to assume a GM role — which, for most organizations, is now second in the front office hierarchy — with a new team.
Organizational Notes: Brewers, Dodgers, Padres
The Brewers added a pair of new coaches to their major league staff, reports Will Sammon of The Athletic. The club named Jim Henderson its new bullpen coach and Matt Erickson as its infield and assistant hitting coach. Henderson replaces Steve Karsay, who stepped down last week citing a desire to spend more time with his family, while Erickson assumes a newly created role in manager Craig Counsell’s dugout.
Henderson’s playing career spanned parts of four major league seasons, including three with Milwaukee. He served as the Brewers’ primary closer in 2013, notching 28 saves alongside a 2.70 ERA in 60 innings across 61 appearances. After a rocky start to the 2014 season, the righty underwent shoulder surgery and never quite regained his form. He appeared in 44 games for the Mets in 2016, posting a 4.11 ERA in 45 innings, but never made it back to the bigs thereafter. He’s been a coach in the Milwaukee system since 2018, serving most recently as the pitching coach at Triple-A Nashville. Erickson, who notched one hit in six big-league plate appearances (all with the Brewers in 2004), had been the manager of the Low-A Wisconsin Timber Rattlers since 2011.
Other organizational notes from around the game:
- The Dodgers have hired Damon Jones, previously general counsel for the Washington Football Team, for a multi-titled role that includes vice president, assistant GM, and baseball legal counsel. Prior to joining the Washington Football Team, Jones had worked in the Nationals front office for 13 years following the end of his college baseball career at UC Santa Barbara. The team also announced the promotions of Alex Slater (from director of baseball operations to vice president and assistant GM), Brandon McDaniel (from director of player performance to vice president of player performance), and Thomas Albert (from assistant athletic trainer to head athletic trainer).
- The Padres announced their 2022 minor league affiliate coaching staffs today. Jared Sandberg, previously the Mariners’ bench coach, will manage the Triple-A El Paso Chihuahuas; Phillip Wellman, perpetrator of perhaps the most legendary minor league manager temper tantrum ever caught on film, returns as manager of the Double-A San Antonio Missions; Brian Esposito, who’d managed the Triple-A Indianapolis Indians in the Pirates’ organization since 2018, will manage the High-A Fort Wayne TinCaps; and Eric Junge, who’d served as the El Paso pitching coach in 2021 before managing the team from mid-August, will manage the L0w-A Lake Elsinore Storm. A full list of the club’s minor league coaches can be found in the team’s official announcement.
Nationals Overhaul Minor League, Organizational Staff
The Nationals announced a flurry of new coaching and organizational hires this morning. Per the club’s official announcement, the club has hired more than twenty additional staff members, including to fill fourteen new roles added to their system. The hirings of fifteen-year big-league veteran Coco Crisp (as outfield/baserunning coordinator) and 2003 AL batting champ Bill Mueller (as quality control coordinator) were reported last night (via Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post).
The expansion follows a trend in the game that has seen clubs invest substantial resources in support staff, particularly in player development. Among others, the new roles in the organization in 2022 include mental skills coordinator, nutritionist, lower level pitching and hitting coordinators, and a developmental coach at each of the Nats’ four minor league affiliates as well as in the Florida Complex League and the Dominican Summer League.
As Dougherty notes in a piece for the Post, the Nationals ranked dead-last in staff size in 2021, with vacancies even at several MLB-standard positions, including catching coordinator. The club also didn’t have a single full-time staffer assigned to handle its video needs, with the video work necessary for advanced scouting left to an intern at each affiliate. While the blame for a long-barren farm system (commonly ranked among the worst in the game before the Max Scherzer/Trea Turner blockbuster at the 2021 deadline netted a return that included high-end prospects Keibert Ruiz and Josiah Gray) lies at least in part on trades that shipped out Lucas Giolito, Jesus Luzardo, and others to boost the big-league squad (a project that culminated in a 2019 World Series victory), a thin developmental staff can’t have helped.
Notable hires throughout the system include Joel Hanrahan, whose seven seasons in the bigs included parts of three in DC, as the pitching coach at Low-A Fredericksburg; Delwyn Young, who spent parts of five seasons with the Dodgers and Pirates, as the hitting coach at Fredericksburg; and Dave Jauss, who’s been a big-league assistant with the Pirates, Orioles, Dodgers, and Red Sox and served as the Mets bench coach in 2021, as senior adviser for player development. A full accounting of the Nationals’ non-major league staff can be found in this thread from Jessica Camerato of MLB.com.
Why Haven’t The Braves Paid Freddie Freeman?
Though the consensus across the industry remains that Braves franchise cornerstone Freddie Freeman will ultimately end up back in Atlanta, few expected Freeman to reach 2021 Opening Day — let alone the long-inevitable lockout — without a deal to keep the face of the franchise with the only club he’s ever known well into the backside of his career. Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos is notorious for playing his cards as close to the vest as any GM in the game, but it would at least appear that the chances of Freeman joining friend, mentor, and recent MLBTR chatee Chipper Jones in spending the entirety of a Hall of Fame-caliber career in Atlanta have reached an all-time low.
Based on the most recent reports of the state of talks between the Braves and their sweet-swinging lefty (which came via USA Today’s Bob Nightengale and MLB Network’s Jon Heyman in mid-November), player and team are hung up on both length and value, with the Braves reportedly offering a five-year, $135MM pact and Freeman holding out for something closer to six years and $200MM. At the beginning of the offseason, MLBTR projected Freeman would ultimately land a six-year, $180MM deal, a prediction that roughly accords with how the market played out ahead of the lockout.
As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes observed in December, while there’s no obviously ideal fit for Freeman outside of Atlanta, there’s also no NL team with an established incumbent at DH, hypothetically expanding Freeman’s market to NL teams with an entrenched first basemen — including the Dodgers (Max Muncy/Cody Bellinger), the Cardinals (Paul Goldschmidt), the Giants (Brandon Belt), and the Mets (Pete Alonso) — should the new CBA include a universal DH. But not every team has the payroll flexibility to add Freeman, of course, and few see either first base (the least demanding defensive position) or DH (a non-defensive role) as positions worthy of major payroll commitments, both of which Anthopoulos is likely relying on as he attempts to wait out his star.
Three teams with money to spend (the Dodgers, Yankees, and Blue Jays) were reported to have kicked the tires on Freeman ahead of the lockout, but Tim notes reasons to remain suspect with regard to each: in his seven years at the helm in LA, Andrew Friedman has never given out a deal longer than four years to another team’s free agent; the Yankees have more urgent needs at shortstop and in the rotation; and the Blue Jays would have to either transition Vladimir Guerrero Jr. back to third base (where his defense would detract from his bat’s enormous value) or ask their young star to give up his glove entirely after an MVP-caliber season at first. Still, each of these clubs have the financial flexibility to pry Freeman from the Braves, and there’s no telling how any team will react to the free-agent feeding frenzy likely to follow the end of the lockout.
Fresh off a World Series run few expected, the Braves and their deep-pocketed owner clearly could afford to keep Freeman on the books (the Braves are owned by the Denver-based corporation Liberty Media, whose chairman, John Malone, has an estimated net worth of $8 billion, per MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald). Because Liberty Media is a publicly traded company, the Braves’ profit-and-loss numbers are a matter of public record. The company’s 2021 third quarter earnings report (which runs from July 1 to September 30, roughly the second half of the regular season) records $222MM in Braves-related revenue and an operating profit of $35MM while running a full-season payroll of just shy of $145MM (per Fangraphs’ RosterResource) — a profit figure that does not include the club’s massive playoff gate windfall, the flurry of championship merchandise sales, or the lucrative explosions in season ticket sales and sponsorship deals that commonly follow a title.
To be clear, though he was characteristically cagy about the details, Anthopoulos has stated publicly that the Braves will run a higher payroll in 2022, a feat they’re likely to accomplish even without a fresh Freeman deal. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts (which includes salary estimates for the Braves’ nine arbitration-eligible big-leaguers), the Braves have already allocated just under $129MM in salary commitments in 2022 and are still in need of at least one starting-caliber outfielder; of the four outfielders the team rotated in the playoffs (Eddie Rosario, Joc Pederson, Jorge Soler, and Adam Duvall), only Duvall is presently under contract, and no one is sure what to expect from superstar Ronald Acuña Jr. (returning from a major knee injury) or Marcell Ozuna (from administrative leave) – or, indeed, whether the latter will even remain with the club. Further, while Acuña has played solidly in several years in center field and Duvall managed it through the playoffs, each is likely better suited for a corner. One of the prospect trio of Cristian Pache, Michael Harris, and Drew Waters is likely the long-term answer in center, but none has yet proven himself ready to take over.
How the Braves choose to address this need (as well as for a possible veteran innings-eater to complement the stable of young arms they’ll slot in behind Max Fried, Charlie Morton, and Ian Anderson) remains to be seen, but both Soler (projected to land a three-year, $36MM deal) and Rosario (two years, $15MM) are live possibilities. Presuming roughly $15MM of 2022 salary to address these needs would put the club right around last year’s payroll figure, and a $30MM annual commitment to Freeman on top would push them significantly beyond any number with which ownership has seemed comfortable in the past.
These are heady times in Atlanta, of course — and Liberty Media’s balance sheet makes it clear it’s a bump they could profitably absorb — but there are baseball reasons to consider. Freeman will be entering his age-32 season in 2022, after all, and the Braves will want to do everything they can to avoid the sort of millstone deal given to other first basemen (e.g. Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, Miguel Cabrera) in the last decade or so. Still, Freeman has been a model of consistency, posting an OPS+ of 132 or higher in every season since 2013, and recent years have shown no signs of regression; the first baseman followed an astonishing run to an NL MVP behind a .341/.462/.640 line in the small sample of 2020 by essentially replicating his career numbers (.295/.384/.509) in 2021 (.300/.393/.503) despite an uncharacteristically slow start.
The slugger’s batted-ball numbers also show no serious warning signs; though his line-drive percentage fell to 25.1% in 2021 (his lowest since 2012), his hard-hit rate (the percentage of batted balls with exit velocity of 95 mph or higher) of 46.2% matched his career number exactly. His 2021 strikeout (15.4%) and walk (12.2%) also fall on the right side of his career numbers (19.7% and 11.7%, respectively).
A six-year deal would take him through his age-37 season (by which point Father Time is likely to have made at least some progress), but the recent precedent in Atlanta is on Freeman’s side. Though he never played in more than 143 games after his age-31 season, Jones remained a productive Brave through age 40, even winning a batting title in his age-36 season and lodging his final two All-Star appearances at ages 39 and 40, all while playing a much more taxing defensive position.
How Anthopoulos will choose to play the Freeman situation on the other side of the lockout remains to be seen, but he’ll almost certainly have to rethink his aversion to a sixth year to keep his face of the franchise around. The pre-lockout market proved favorable to high-end players; Marcus Semien, who’s only a year younger than Freeman and has a much less extensive track record of high-end offensive production, pulled down a seven-year deal, for instance, and he isn’t even expected to be asked to cover the premium position of shortstop. Braves fans are currently riding high off their first championship since 1995, but losing the one player they kept around following their post-2014 teardown would surely let quite a bit of air out of the balloon. Landing either native Atlantan Matt Olson (who’d cost the Braves a pretty penny in trade capital) or Anthony Rizzo (projected for a three-year, $45MM pact, and on whom the Braves have apparently kicked the tires) might soften the blow, but neither has the professional or personal stature Freeman has earned in his twelve years as a Brave.