Which Remaining Free Agent Relievers Are Coming Off The Strongest Seasons?
As teams plan out their post-lockout needs, most are probably looking to the bullpen as an area that could use further help. With the number of relievers clubs deploy throughout a season, essentially all of them could be well-served to stockpile depth in the middle innings.
The most straightforward path to doing that is via free agency, and there are still a number of options from which to choose. Using MLBTR’s free agent list, we find 58 available arms who tossed at least 20 innings of relief last season. Some, like longtime Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen, are notable enough to command a significant multi-year guarantee. Many others figure to settle for one-year deals with a low base salary or perhaps minor league contracts with a Spring Training invite.
Who should be priority targets coming out of the transactions freeze? As we did with rotation options last week, we’ll sort the remaining free agent relievers by various metrics of 2021 performance to identify some of the top arms. There are obviously other factors for teams to consider — quality of raw stuff, pre-2021 track record, the player’s injury history, etc. — but a brief snapshot on the top bullpen arms by last year’s performance should provide a decent starting point. (All figures cited, including league averages, are looking solely at pitchers’ outings as relievers).
ERA (league average — 4.17)
- Andrew Chafin (LHP), 1.83
- Collin McHugh (RHP), 1.90
- Jimmy Nelson (RHP), 1.98*
- Jesse Chavez (RHP), 2.03
- Kenley Jansen (RHP), 2.22
- Juan Minaya (RHP), 2.48
- Hunter Strickland (RHP), 2.61
- Ryan Tepera (RHP), 2.79
- Ross Detwiler (LHP), 2.82
- Joe Kelly (RHP), 2.86
Strikeout Rate (league average — 24%)
- Jimmy Nelson, 38%
- Heath Hembree (RHP), 34.2%
- Jake Diekman (LHP), 31.7%
- Brad Boxberger (RHP), 31.2%
- Kenley Jansen, 30.9%
- Ryan Tepera, 30.8%
- Collin McHugh, 30.1%
- Jesse Chavez, 29.5%
- Ross Detwiler, 28.2%
- Jeurys Familia (RHP), 27.5%
Strikeout/Walk Rate Differential (league average — 14.2 percentage points)
- Jimmy Nelson, 27.8 points
- Collin McHugh, 24.8 points
- Heath Hembree, 24.3 points
- Ryan Tepera, 22.9 points
- Jesse Chavez, 21.9 points
- Brad Boxberger, 21.8 points
- Ian Kennedy (RHP), 19.7 points
- Joe Kelly, 19.2 points
- Ross Detwiler, 19.1 points
- Jake Diekman, 18.7 points
Ground-ball Rate (league average — 43.1%)
- Joe Kelly, 58.9%
- Brandon Kintzler (RHP), 58.5%
- Archie Bradley (RHP), 55.7%
- Alex Colomé (RHP), 53.7%
- Juan Minaya, 53%
- Alex Claudio (LHP), 52%
- Jeurys Familia, 51%
- Steve Cishek (RHP), 49.7%
- Edgar Santana (RHP), 49.6%
- Robert Gsellman (RHP), 49.4%
FIP (league average — 4.17)
- Jesse Chavez, 1.75
- Jimmy Nelson, 1.82
- Collin McHugh, 2.29
- Ryan Tepera, 2.73
- Andrew Chafin, 2.98
- Joe Kelly, 3.08
- Kenley Jansen, 3.08
- Ross Detwiler, 3.28
- Conner Greene (RHP), 3.46
- Chris Martin (RHP), 3.47
Innings Pitched
- Yusmeiro Petit (RHP), 78
- Hansel Robles (RHP), 69
- Kenley Jansen, 69
- Andrew Chafin, 68 2/3
- Steve Cishek, 68 1/3
- Alex Colomé, 65
- Brad Hand, 64 2/3
- Brad Boxberger, 64 2/3
- Richard Rodríguez (RHP), 64 1/3
- Adam Ottavino (RHP), 62
* Nelson underwent season-ending elbow surgery last August; his health status for 2022 remains unclear.
Collective Bargaining Issues: Universal DH
Over the past few weeks, we’ve covered a series of issues that figure to be key areas of dispute in collective bargaining talks. In early stages of negotiations, Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association presented varying proposals regarding such things as playoff expansion, the service time structure and the competitive balance tax.
Today’s collective bargaining issue seems, on the surface, as though it should be easier to solve. Expanding the designated hither to the National League seems to have appeal to both parties. The union would welcome the creation of 15 bat-only positions that might expand the market for defensively-limited players and aging stars. As many teams have prioritized constructing rosters with defensive flexibility, the market has devalued non-elite corner bats in free agency and arbitration. A universal DH wouldn’t reverse that trend entirely, but it should be of some benefit to offense-first players.
The league, meanwhile, seems likely to embrace the universal DH as a means of aiding offense. The sport’s ever-increasing strikeout rate has drawn plenty of consternation. The leaguewide strikeout percentage ticked upwards every year between 2005 and 2020, setting an all-time record each season. Last year finally marked a stop to the record-breaking streak, as the strikeout rate marginally slipped from 23.4% to 23.2%. That’s perhaps a bit encouraging, but last year’s number still checked in almost seven percentage points above 2005’s 16.4% mark.
Pitchers aren’t the only culprit for the decrease in balls in play, but they’ve had real issues making contact. Last year, pitcher-hitters fanned at a 44.2% clip. Overall, they hit .110/.150/.142 across 4,830 plate appearances. That’s ghastly production, even by the historically low standards at the position. Their five highest all-time strikeout rates have come in the last five years of pitcher hitting. Four of the five lowest pitcher-hitters’ wRC+ (which compares their overall offensive output to that season’s league average marks) have come since 2017. However one wants to explain that trend — improved leaguewide velocities, specialization that leads to less practice for pitcher hitting, etc. — pitchers are putting up less of a fight at the plate than ever before.
Just as the universal DH won’t alone reinvigorate the market for defensively-limited sluggers, it’s not going to erase the game’s strikeout prevalence. Position players already take up the vast majority of at-bats, and they’re striking out a lot. MLB and the union agreed to a universal DH for the 2020 shortened season, and the league still broke its all-time strikeout record. Yet the elimination of pitcher hitting would no doubt have some positive boost on offense that should appeal to those in the league offices.
Given its seemingly mutually beneficial nature, many expect the universal DH to be a part of the upcoming collective bargaining agreement. That said, it was widely expected the NL DH would be in play for 2021 as well, seeing as the parties had agreed to implement it the year before as part of the pandemic protocols. That didn’t wind up happening. The league, reasoning that the players had greater incentive to embrace the universal DH, reportedly sought to tie its introduction to agreement from the union to expand the postseason field (a key revenue generator for MLB). The MLBPA viewed that as an unequal tradeoff and ultimately, neither the universal DH nor playoff expansion were put in place last season.
The potential introduction of a universal DH figures to again come up in discussions once the sides reengage on CBA talks in the coming weeks. If implemented, it’ll no doubt be a divisive provision for viewers. From a fan perspective, the DH is largely an aesthetic question. Some will point to pitcher-hitters’ woeful numbers as evidence that their continued hitting is an anachronism. Others would view the universal DH as a blow to the game’s tradition. In a December poll, 62% of MLBTR respondents expressed support for an NL DH; 26% were against the possibility, while 12% were generally apathetic on the issue.
There have been some creative ways floated to perhaps reduce pitcher-hitting while maintaining an increased amount of late-game strategy. Jayson Stark of the Athletic is among those to have floated the idea of tying the DH to that game’s starting pitcher, such that a team forfeits their DH whenever they remove their starter from the game. It’s theoretically possible the league and union consider such an idea, although it seems they’d have more straightforward interest in simply adding the DH to the NL in its current American League format.
MLB Expected To Make Core Economics Proposal To MLBPA Within Two Weeks
Last week, both Jeff Passan of ESPN and Evan Drellich of the Athletic reported that Major League Baseball had been preparing core economics proposals to present to the MLB Players Association. Both Passan and Drellich suggested that could ignite collective bargaining negotiations by the end of the month. Bob Nightengale of USA Today adds a bit more specificity to that timeline, writing this morning that the league is planning to make its proposal “within the next two weeks.”
Whenever the league does put its offer on the table, that’ll serve as the first notable development in CBA talks since MLB instituted a lockout in the early morning minutes of December 2. The parties have since met a couple times regarding issues outside of core economics, but there’s reportedly been no discussion on the most contentious issues since the start of the lockout.
The league and union did put forth core economics proposals prior to the expiration of the previous CBA, but neither side responded favorably to the other’s offers. That culminated in a seven-minute bargaining session on December 1. Both parties have expressed openness to returning to the table, but they’ve been in a holding pattern as the union has waited for the league to put forth a new offer.
Renewing core economics discussions by around January 21 (two Fridays from now) wouldn’t give the parties much time to bridge the gap without threatening exhibition play. The first Spring Training games are scheduled for February 26, and there’ll certainly need to be a few weeks between the signing of a new CBA and the start of gameplay for players to report, clear whatever COVID-19 protocols may be in place and ramp up physical activity.
Poll: What Do You Make Of Service Time?
Last week we explored a poll covering December transactions from the year 2016, the ramifications of which Nationals, White Sox, and Yankees fans are all feeling to this day. This article’s look-back will touch on another poll from the archives and focus on a topic that affects the league at large: service time regulations.
Service time is one of the more universal components of major league baseball— if a player is on a team’s active roster during the regular season, he’s going to accrue service time. How quickly a player accrues service time affects their career earnings, both through the arbitration process and how quickly they’re compensated in free agency. For teams, service time signals how long they have control of a non-market value (read: very affordable) player, is a major component in assessing trade value, and is closely monitored to maximize a team’s perceived competitive window.
Because the accumulation of service time affects player compensation and a team’s roster construction, it’s not much of a surprise that editing the existing service time structure has been a hot-button issue in the ongoing CBA saga. MLBTR broke down what each negotiating party looked to change with the current service time structure here, but the general attitude of each side can be described as this: the MLBPA wants its players to reach active rosters and free agency as soon as possible, while the league has proposed to rework the system but generally has little urgency to shake up a longstanding way of doing business.
Any changes to the existing service time structure will be tricky, and may require concessions from the benefitting party elsewhere in CBA negotiations. That said, barring a massive overhaul in the way players reach free agency it’s likely that a new system will be just as exploitable as the current iteration.
Teams have always looked to keep their brightest young players under team control for as long and cost-effectively as they can, and it’s unlikely they’ll budge to a structure that will make that mission much harder. Baseball fans meanwhile, will of course want their teams to act logically under any system that’s set in place— more than 73% of voters in a 2018 site poll indicated baseball’s service time structure was tolerable, even if they didn’t think it was fair to players.
Anecdotally, a majority of sampled fans feel that keeping a Kris Bryant-type prospect in the minor leagues for a few weeks in April is okay if it leads to another year of team control. The exceedingly rare instances where that type of player cracks an Opening Day roster, as was the case with the immediately-impactful Fernando Tatis Jr., are welcome breaks from service time considerations and generate buzz, but can seem regrettable if a top player departs a team six years down the road instead of an easily-attainable seven.
With the league preparing its next round of economic proposals, the service time structure as we know it may soon look a bit different. If that proves to be the case and the current structure is modified, it’s possible a deal can be reached that feels workable for teams and more inherently fair to players. That said, there’s no guarantee any changes will be made to service time structure when several other key issues remain on the table. To the fans, at a time when change may be on the horizon, we’ll ask again: how do you feel about MLB’s service time rules?
How Do You Feel About MLB's Service Time Rules?
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They're unfair to players and fan interest; the next CBA should adjust them 58% (3,285)
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There's nothing wrong with them, it's part of the game 29% (1,663)
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They're not exactly fair, but can be addressed several CBAs from now 13% (736)
Total votes: 5,684
Coaching Notes: Blue Jays, Vieira, Mets, Stankiewicz, Nationals
The Blue Jays made a noteworthy addition to their coaching ranks Monday, hiring Jaime Vieira as a minor league hitting coach per Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi. Vieira, a former softball standout and coach, is no stranger to the Toronto organization after spending the past two seasons with the club in various roles. Most recently she occupied a baseball operations research and development role last year, assisting the club with its 2021 draft among other tasks. The bump up to hitting coach reflects success in Vieira’s previously held roles as well as the continuation of an encouraging industry trend to seek out talented personnel regardless of gender. While Vieira is set to serve as the first female coach in the Toronto organization, this news comes in the wake of several other firsts this past week, including Rachel Balkovec’s ascension to manager in the Yankees organization and Genevieve Beacom becoming Australia’s first professional female baseball player.
Some other personnel notes from baseball’s eastern divisions…
- The Mets search for a bench coach under new skipper Buck Showalter continues, as Jon Heyman reports (via Twitter) that the team “checked in on” but was ultimately rebuffed by Grand Canyon University head coach Andy Stankiewicz. Showalter and Stankiewicz have some history, as the latter served as a utility man for Showalter’s Yankees in 1992 and 1993. This cordial refusal is the latest in a string of recent rejections for the Mets organization, who were denied a chance to speak with San Francisco pitching coach Andrew Bailey for their bench coach vacancy earlier today.
- The Nationals have made a smattering of recent hires, per Brittany Ghiroli and Maria Torres of The Athletic. Joe Dillon has returned to the organization as a minor league hitting coordinator after a few years as the Phillies’ major league hitting coach. The club has also hired Michael Schatz away from the Reds to serve as the organization’s lead research and development analyst. Lastly, GM Mike Rizzo has also welcomed three new special assistants to his front office: Willie Fraser and Mike Pagliarulo, recently with the Marlins, and Greg Hunter, who last served as a scout for the Mariners.
MLB, Apple Reportedly Discussing Broadcasting Rights
According to a report from the New York Post’s Andrew Marchand, Major League Baseball has recently engaged in “serious” and “substantial” talks with Apple with regard to weeknight broadcasting rights, specifically to the Monday- and Wednesday-night package previously aired by ESPN. Should a deal be reached, Apple would presumably broadcast the games on Apple TV+, the company’s subscription streaming service that competes with Netflix, Hulu, Disney+, and Amazon Prime Video, among others. Apple, the world’s most valuable publicly traded company, recently attained a $3 trillion market valuation.
Though the move wouldn’t exactly represent something wholly new for MLB — regular-season games have been carried on YouTube, Facebook, and Twitter in recent seasons, and speculation that MLB might seek to sell the games ESPN had dropped has been rampant since the network’s new deal was announced — it would reflect a shifting sports media landscape. Amazon, a direct competitor with Apple in several arenas, recently reached a deal with the NFL to poach Thursday Night Football from Fox to the tune of $1 billion per season, and NBC has made many Premier League soccer matches available exclusively on Peacock, its own streaming service. MLB also operates its own highly successful streaming service, MLB.tv, which logged a record 10 billion minutes of viewership in 2021, per an October press release. Neither Apple nor MLB have yet commented on the reported talks.
Though the size and scope of a potential deal are presently unclear, it’s unlikely the package would approach the $1 billion mark that Amazon agreed to pay the NFL. While the approximately 60 MLB games ESPN has relinquished dwarf the 18 NFL games Amazon will receive, national viewing habits (and consequent broadcast values) differ greatly between the sports. For reference, per Tom Bassam of SportsPro Media, ESPN paid MLB $700MM annually for the right to a 90-game package and from 2022 will pay an annual fee of $550MM to retain Sunday Night Baseball (roughly 30 games) as well as the Little League Classic, the opening night game, the Home Run Derby, and either all Wild Card series games (should the new CBA include a playoff format similar to 2020’s) or one of two Wild Card games and eight additional regular-season games (should the existing playoff format remain in place).
Still, should a deal be reached, it would almost certainly represent a substantial cash infusion for a league presently at a standstill in CBA negotiations that center largely on the share of revenue retained by owners and that paid to players. In any event, should such a deal come to fruition, it’s very unlikely to be the last of its kind.
Giants Deny Mets’ Request To Interview Andrew Bailey
Following a frustrating weekend that saw the Padres refuse an interview with quality control coach Ryan Flaherty and Reds planning and outfield coach Jeff Pickler remove himself from consideration, the Mets’ search for a bench coach hit another snag today. As Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports, the Giants have denied the Mets’ request to interview pitching coach Andrew Bailey to be new manager Buck Showalter’s deputy.
Following his retirement ahead of the 2018 season, Mets GM Billy Eppler, then with the Angels, gave the 37-year-old Bailey — who pitched for the A’s, Red Sox, Yankees, Phillies, and Angels in a career that spanned eight seasons and was named the 2009 AL Rookie of the Year while serving as Oakland’s closer — his first coaching job, hiring him as the Angels’ replay coordinator and coaching assistant in 2018 before promoting him to bullpen coach in 2019. The Giants then hired Bailey as their pitching coach ahead of the 2020 season. He led San Francisco’s staff to a 3.25 ERA in 2021 (second only to the Dodgers) en route to a 107-win season and an NL West title.
While teams customarily allow coaching and front office staff to interview with other clubs when they’re up for a promotion — which made the Flaherty news something of a surprise — it isn’t exactly clear that a move from pitching coach to bench coach would represent a ‘promotion’ as such (Rosenthal notes that executive opinion is mixed on the issue). Timing may have also played a role in the decision; big-league coaching staffs are usually filled out relatively early in the offseason, and Rosenthal previously reported that the Padres denied the Mets a chance to speak with Flaherty largely because they didn’t want to have to find a replacement at this stage in the offseason.
Of course, the Mets’ attempts to fill out their coaching staff were held back by delays at the top, with Eppler’s hiring coming on November 18 (less than two weeks ahead of the lockout) and Showalter’s on December 20. They’ve since hired three additional coaches — Wayne Kirby as first base coach, Joey Cora as third base coach, and Eric Chávez as hitting coach — but only Chávez had been tied to another organization (the Yankees let him interview for the job only a few weeks after hiring him as an assistant hitting coach). Pitching coach Jeremy Hefner is the lone holdover from the 2021 staff.
Despite the chaos in putting together a coaching staff, Eppler has hit the ground running on the player side, inking Max Scherzer, Starling Marte, Mark Canha, and Eduardo Escobar to free agent deals worth a combined $254.5MM in the days leading up to the lockout while Noah Syndergaard, Javier Baez, Marcus Stroman, and Steven Matz signed elsewhere. Indeed, having endured a second-half collapse and watching the division rival Braves ride a late-season surge to a World Series title, Mets fans will hope Eppler’s offseason isn’t finished regardless of the composition of the coaching staff. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco taps Kris Bryant, Carlos Rodón, and NPB star Seiya Suzuki as potential targets once a new CBA is reached.
Read The Transcript Of Today’s Chat With Former MLB Reliever Alex Hinshaw
Alex Hinshaw made his major league debut with the Giants in May 2008, striking out the first batter he faced — two-time All-Star Michael Bourn. That set the stage for a strong rookie season, as the southpaw went on to post a 3.40 ERA over 39 2/3 innings. He took the ball 48 times that year, leading the team’s relievers (minimum 20 innings) with a 26.3% strikeout rate and ranking second on the club in ERA.
Hinshaw made nine appearances in 2009 but spent the 2010-11 campaigns in the high minors of the San Francisco system. He continued pitching and was rewarded for his perseverance with a return to the big leagues in 2012. He split that season between the Padres and Cubs, making 33 cumulative appearances. Hinshaw appeared in the Blue Jays’ system, independent ball and the Venezuelan winter league over the next couple seasons and retired after the 2014 campaign.
Hinshaw comes from a rather atypical baseball background. His mother immigrated to the United States from Afghanistan. In February 2013, he told Rosie DiManno of the Toronto Star he learned to speak a bit of Farsi as part of his upbringing. A Southern California native, he went on to play college ball at San Diego State University, where Hall of Famer Tony Gwynn was serving as head coach.
MLBTR was happy to welcome Alex for a chat this afternoon. Click here to view the transcript.
If you’re a current or former MLB player who would like to do a chat with MLBTR readers, reach out through our contact form! We’ve also had requests for a chat with a former MLB general manager, if there are any out there who would be interested.
NL Central Notes: Brewers, Mejia, Madrigal, Pirates, Newman
A few weeks before the lockout, the Brewers acquired right-hander J.C. Mejía from the Guardians in exchange for cash considerations or a player to be named later. The 25-year-old had a tough rookie season in Cleveland, working to an 8.25 ERA/4.75 SIERA over 52 1/3 innings. He started 11 of his 17 appearances, holding down a rotation role for around two months while Cleveland dealt with concurrent injuries to Shane Bieber, Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale. Those lackluster results led to Mejía being designated for assignment after the season.
As part of a broader preview of the Brewers bullpen options, Will Sammon of the Athletic writes that the team would prefer to keep Mejía in a relief role moving forward. As Sammon points out, the righty did fare much better in his six relief appearances with Cleveland than he did as a starter last year. That’s an incredibly small sample on which to draw, but the Brewers’ strong rotation depth could afford them the opportunity to deploy Mejía in shorter stints. In 2021, he was rocked by left-handed batters (.328/.397/.656 in 137 plate appearances) but held his own against righties (.227/.327/.375 over 101 plate appearances). A bullpen role would give manager Craig Counsell some flexibility to shield Mejía from opposing clubs’ top lefty hitters.
More out of the division:
- The ongoing lockout prevents players on a 40-man roster from having any sort of contact with club personnel. That’s not an ideal situation for anyone involved, but it could prove particularly challenging for players recuperating from major injuries but barred from speaking with team medical staffs. One such player, Cubs infielder Nick Madrigal, speaks with Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic about his ongoing recovery from the season-ending right hamstring tear he suffered in June. The 24-year-old says he’s progressed to sprinting of late but hasn’t been able to directly correspond with the team over the past five-plus weeks. Instead, he’s rehabbed at an independent facility (Scottsdale-based Helix Human Performance), where his trainers have been tasked with updating the Cubs on his status and relaying back recommendations from the team’s medical and conditioning departments. Injured players having to rely on independent “middlemen” to keep teams abreast of their progress is one of the quieter ways in which the lockout is impacting typical offseason business.
- Rob Biertempfel of the Athletic opines that the Pirates are likely to make shortstop Kevin Newman available on the trade market coming out of the transactions freeze. That’s little surprise, given that the rebuilding Bucs are probably open to offers for everyone on the roster, save perhaps Bryan Reynolds or Ke’Bryan Hayes. Yet it remains to be seen if Newman would draw enough interest to make a trade worthwhile for a Pittsburgh club with very little certainty in the middle infield. The right-handed hitter is coming off a poor offensive showing, with his .226/.265/.309 mark checking in 46 percentage points below the league average by measure of wRC+. No other player who tallied 500+ plate appearances did less damage at the plate, although the mere fact that Newman commanded that level of playing time speaks to his contributions on the other side of the ball. Public metrics like Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average were fond of his glovework, and he was a Gold Glove finalist at shortstop. Coupled with a modest $1.95MM salary, perhaps Newman could attract interest from teams like the Yankees or Twins seeking a stopgap pickup at the position, but his lack of productivity at the plate suggests he’s probably better suited for a utility role with a hopeful contender.
Offseason Outlook: New York Mets
The Mets have already been one of the league’s most active teams this offseason. They’ve replaced their manager, added a new baseball operations leader and embarked upon a huge spending spree to land the market’s top center fielder and starting pitcher. They probably won’t make quite as many headlines coming out of the lockout, but with seemingly limitless financial resources and an obvious desire to improve, they can’t be ruled out of almost anything.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Francisco Lindor, SS: $341MM through 2031
- Max Scherzer, RHP: $130MM through 2024
- Starling Marte, CF: $78MM through 2025
- Jacob deGrom, RHP: $72MM through 2023 (deal contains a $32.5MM club option for 2024; deGrom can opt out of final year and $34.5MM after 2022)
- Robinson Canó, 2B: $48MM through 2023
- James McCann, C: $32.45MM through 2024
- Mark Canha, LF: $26.5MM through 2023 (including $2MM buyout on $11.5MM club option for 2024)
- Eduardo Escobar, 3B: $20MM through 2023 (including $500K buyout on $9.5MM club option for 2024)
- Carlos Carrasco, RHP: $15MM through 2022 (including $3MM buyout on $14MM vesting/club option for 2023)
- Taijuan Walker, RHP: $14MM through 2023 (Walker can opt out of final year and $3MM after 2022)
- Trevor May, RHP: $7.75MM through 2022
Total 2022 commitments: $215.8MM
Projected Salaries for Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Edwin Díaz — $10.4MM
- Pete Alonso — $7.3MM
- Brandon Nimmo — $6MM
- Dominic Smith — $4MM
- Trevor Williams — $3.8MM
- Seth Lugo — $3.7MM
- Jeff McNeil — $2.8MM
- J.D. Davis — $2.7MM
- Miguel Castro — $2.6MM
- Joey Lucchesi — $1.6MM
- Tomás Nido — $900K
- Drew Smith — $900K
- Luis Guillorme — $700K
Option Decisions
Both Mets and Kevin Pillar declined their ends of two-tiered option; paid $1.4MM buyout in lieu of $6.4MM club option or $2.9MM player option
Free Agents
- Michael Conforto, Javier Báez, Marcus Stroman, Jonathan Villar, Rich Hill, Jeurys Familia, Aaron Loup, Robert Gsellman, Kevin Pillar, José Peraza, Jerad Eickhoff, Heath Hembree, Brad Hand, Dellin Betances, Corey Oswalt, Tommy Hunter, Brandon Drury, Albert Almora Jr., Robert Stock, Stephen Nogosek, Mason Williams, Wilfredo Tovar, Chance Sisco, Mark Payton
The Mets entered the winter knowing they’d be on the hunt for a new baseball operations leader, and a managerial vacancy followed in the opening days of the offseason. New York declined their 2022 option on Luis Rojas, ending his time in the role after two seasons.
The first few weeks of the offseason were fairly quiet on the transactions front as the Mets prioritized putting a new front office leader in place. New York inquired about such notable names as Billy Beane, Theo Epstein and David Stearns as part of a highly-public search. They missed out on those marquee names, but New York did eventually settle on a baseball ops head with previous experience leading a front office. In mid-November, the Mets finalized a four-year deal with former Angels general manager Billy Eppler to take on that role in Queens.
Eppler took over a club facing plenty of turnover. Starters Noah Syndergaard and Marcus Stroman were hitting free agency, as were longtime outfielder Michael Conforto and deadline pickup Javier Báez. It now seems like all four of those players are going to be playing elsewhere next season. Syndergaard and Conforto rejected qualifying offers. (Stroman and Báez were each ineligible for QO’s but surely would’ve declined themselves). The two starters signed with other clubs before the lockout, as did Báez. Conforto remains a free agent, but the Mets other moves this offseason (more on those in a minute) suggest the club has probably moved on.
With two departing starters, New York made a run at Steven Matz. The southpaw, whom the Mets had traded away last offseason, hit free agency coming off a solid year with the Blue Jays. New York was one of a few clubs with notable interest in Matz, but the 30-year-old inked a four-year contract with the Cardinals. That didn’t sit well with owner Steve Cohen, who apparently felt the Mets were denied an opportunity to match St. Louis’ $44MM offer.
The Mets didn’t have much time to dwell on the result of the Matz negotiations, though. With the lockout approaching, the free agent market picked up quite a bit of steam in late November. With Eppler in place, New York was in position to partake in that extravaganza, and the team dove in headfirst. The Mets first free agent pickup — veteran infielder Eduardo Escobar on a two-year guarantee — was a solid but not overly splashy pickup.
It didn’t take long for more headline-grabbing news to follow. Corner outfielder Mark Canha agreed to terms on a two-year deal just a few hours later. And to top off one of the most active evenings by any team in recent memory, New York signed free agency’s only star center fielder. Starling Marte landed a four-year deal with a $78MM guarantee, the largest free agent contract signed by any player this offseason up to that point.
Within a few hours, the Mets fundamentally revamped their lineup. Marte and Canha stepped into the outfield, likely pushing Brandon Nimmo from center field to a corner spot. Escobar stabilized an uncertain second/third base mix, as the club was soon to see Báez land in Detroit. That initial spree didn’t address the potential Syndergaard/Stroman departures, but New York had their highest-impact pickup of all looming on the horizon.
That, of course, proved to be the signing of future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer. The three-time Cy Young award winner landed a three-year, $130MM deal that’s likely to be the largest commitment to any free agent pitcher this winter. It was always expected Scherzer would land a record-setting average annual value, but the extent of the Mets commitment even surpassed most pre-offseason projections.
That few days was the kind Mets fans had dreamed of when Cohen purchased the franchise from the Wilpon family last winter. New York entered the lockout with a projected $263MM in player investments next season, according to Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That’s the highest in MLB by a mile, and the Mets look likely to handily exceed whatever luxury tax thresholds are set in the upcoming collective bargaining agreement.
The transactions freeze brought the Mets player acquisitions to a halt, but it didn’t mark the end of the club’s key offseason dealings. With the lockout looming, the Mets focused on adding to the roster in the intervening weeks between Eppler’s hiring and the December 1 expiration of the previous CBA. Once the league barred player movement, the club returned to their manager position, which had sat vacant for around three months.
According to reports, New York met with six candidates as part of that search. Longtime skipper Buck Showalter was cast as the favorite fairly early in the process, though, and his ultimate hiring proved wholly unsurprising. In contrast to the club’s past few hires — Mickey Callaway, Carlos Beltrán (very briefly) and Rojas — Showalter brings decades of experience to the position. He’ll oversee a star-studded clubhouse, leading a franchise that’ll enter the season with massive aspirations.
With so much in the rearview mirror, what’s left for the Mets after the lockout? Paradoxically, one could argue the club’s immense volume of activity makes their next steps either easier or tougher to project. On the one hand, they’ve done so much that the roster’s strengths and deficiencies are fairly clear. Yet the organization is already operating in uncharted waters from a payroll perspective, leaving little indication for outside observers how much further Cohen and the front office could be prepared to go.
Where might Alderson and Eppler devote their attention after the transactions freeze? The Nimmo – Marte – Canha grouping in the outfield is impressive enough that any further pickups will probably be of the depth variety. It looks all but inevitable that Conforto will depart, and the Mets will pick up another draft choice (they also received one after Syndergaard signed with the Angels) as compensation.
There’s plenty of depth around the infield as well. Francisco Lindor is the shortstop, and Pete Alonso is at first base. How exactly Showalter will divvy up the playing time between second and third base remains to be seen, but there are plenty of options on hand. Jeff McNeil is probably best suited for playing time at the keystone, but Robinson Canó is set to return to the organization after a year-long PED suspension. Escobar can player either position, while J.D. Davis is an option at the hot corner (even if he’s better suited at first base or designated hitter). Utilityman Luis Guillorme can back up all around the infield, including at shortstop.
The likely addition of the DH to the National League might alleviate that logjam a bit, but there’s also the presence of first baseman/corner outfielder Dominic Smith to consider. Committing to anyone at DH might leave a deserving player without regular at-bats, and it looks likely at least one notable name is traded away before the start of the season. Recent reports have suggested a McNeil or Smith deal may be the most probable, but Davis has long been speculated upon as a trade candidate himself — so much so that he guessed his chances of opening next season in Queens were “kind of 50/50” even before New York’s spending spree.
If the Mets were to deal one of those players, it seems likely they’d target pitching help in return. No one around the league can match New York’s best two arms, with Scherzer and Jacob deGrom a potentially dominating pairing at the top. There’s a lot of uncertainty behind that duo, though.
Carlos Carrasco is usually very effective when healthy, but he was limited to twelve starts last year by various injuries and underwent postseason surgery to remove a bone fragment from his elbow. He’s not expected to miss much more than a bit of Spring Training action, but it’s the latest in a rather significant injury history for the 34-year-old. Taijuan Walker stayed healthy last season, but he followed up an All-Star first half with a 7.13 ERA/6.79 FIP after the Break. David Peterson struggled and battled oblique and foot injuries last season. Tylor Megill showed promising strikeout and walk numbers but gave up a lot of hard contact when batters did put the ball in play.
At least adding some sort of stabilizing back-of-the-rotation presence would seem to be a priority. The Reds and A’s are expected to make some higher-impact arms available via trade, and other teams like the Marlins and Brewers might have enough pitching depth to consider dealing a back-end guy for offensive help.
As is the case with virtually every contender, the Mets could probably stand to add a reliever or two. Last year’s bullpen was a top ten unit by both ERA and strikeout/walk rate differential. But Aaron Loup has already departed, and Jeurys Familia (in whom the Mets apparently have some interest in re-signing) and midseason pickups Heath Hembree and Brad Hand all hit free agency.
Edwin Díaz, Trevor May and Seth Lugo make for a quality back-end trio, but adding some middle relief help makes sense. That’s particularly true from the left side, as the Mets don’t have a single southpaw in their projected Opening Day bullpen. Andrew Chafin, Tony Watson and Jake Diekman stand out as the top free agent lefty relievers still available. New York has also been tied to Twins closer Taylor Rogers, who could be attainable in trade.
Catcher stands out as one other potential weak point on the roster. The Mets hoped they’d solidified the position by signing James McCann to a four-year deal last offseason. The veteran was coming off a strong two-year run with the White Sox, but his numbers on both sides of the ball went backwards during his first season in Queens. Without many obvious alternatives available in free agency or trade, the Mets may have to primarily rely on a McCann bounceback, but they could look to replace Tomás Nido as a backup.
It’s certainly possible the Mets biggest activity of the winter is already behind them. Two of the best pitchers in recent memory are in place at the top of the rotation. There’s plenty of star power at the back of the bullpen. The outfield has already been completely remade, and there’s enough depth around the infield that trading away a player or two looks likely.
It’d be justifiable for the front office to view the core as already being in place and to now turn their attention to smaller pickups at the back of the roster. Yet after their November flurry of activity, it’s hard to count the Mets out on anyone. Would ownership push the payroll beyond $300MM for the right player? That’s impossible to tell, since there’s no spending history with Cohen on which to draw. Over the past few years, big-market behemoths like the Dodgers have continued to land star talent even in the absence of a true team “need.” It wouldn’t be a huge surprise if the Mets take the same approach.
One factor the Mets have to consider whenever major league free agency begins again: the qualifying offer. New York declined to sign first-round pick Kumar Rocker last summer, entitling them to a compensatory pick in next year’s draft. Yet because that compensation pick (#11 overall) is higher than the Mets original choice (#14 overall), they’d forfeit their second pick of the first round were they to sign a free agent who has been tagged with a QO.
That could deter a pursuit of someone like Trevor Story or Nick Castellanos, but there are a few marquee free agents who didn’t receive a QO. Carlos Rodón might be the top starting pitcher still available and wasn’t tagged by the White Sox; deadline target Kris Bryant, ineligible for a QO by virtue of a midseason trade, is unsigned; NPB star Seiya Suzuki is going through the posting process and wouldn’t cost a pick. The Mets probably don’t need to make another splash, but if ownership is willing to keep spending, the front office could explore their options.
It’s been another eventful winter in Queens. The Mets again have new leadership, both atop the front office and in the manager’s chair. They’re flexing financial muscle the likes of which previous ownership never seemed to consider. They’ve landed a couple more stars, and even if the remainder of the offseason involves adjustments on the margins of the roster, expectations will be as high as ever. It has been five years since the Mets last postseason appearance. If the streak reaches six, it’d go down as the club’s biggest disappointment yet.