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Each AL Team’s Top Recent Draft Class
With the MLB draft scheduled for next week, let’s take a look at each American League team’s most successful draft class in recent memory. Using Baseball Reference’s draft tracker, we can sum the combined career bWAR of each player selected by each team in a given year. It’s a simple shorthand, not a perfect measure, but it’ll give some insight into which teams have really hit in certain years.
First, a quick note on the methodology. For simplicity, we’re limiting this search to the 2006-2015 classes. A player’s value is only included if he signed with the club, although he needn’t have actually played for his drafting team in the majors. (So, the 2008 Yankees don’t get credit for drafting but failing to sign Gerrit Cole, while the 2007 Red Sox do get credit for drafting and signing Anthony Rizzo, even though he was traded before ever playing an MLB game for Boston). Of course, a player drafted in 2006 has had more time to rack up value than one drafted in 2015, so we’ll note in each team’s capsule if a more recent class is on the verge of taking over from an older class. On to the results…
- Angels: 2009 (109.3 bWAR) – Go figure. Picking one of the greatest players of all time is a heck of a way to kick off a draft class. But this 2009 class wasn’t just about Mike Trout, even if he’s accounted for about two-thirds of its cumulative value. That year, the Angels also selected Patrick Corbin, Randal Grichuk, Garrett Richards and Tyler Skaggs. Former MLBTR contributor Chuck Wassterstrom took a behind-the-scenes look at this class a few years ago.
- Astros: 2009 (53.2 bWAR) – Not a single one of the Astros’ top five rounders in 2009 reached the majors. The late rounds, though, were a smashing success with J.D. Martinez (20th), Dallas Keuchel (7th) and Kiké Hernández (6th) accounting for the class’ value. Of course, Martinez did his damage elsewhere after the Astros released him.
- A’s: 2012 (37.7 bWAR) – The A’s 2012 class produced seven big leaguers, most notably Matt Olson. He leads a group that also included Addison Russell and Max Muncy, who have played most or all of their MLB careers elsewhere.
- Blue Jays: 2009 (39.2 bWAR) – They won’t get credit for selecting James Paxton in supplemental round one here, but Yan Gomes was a nice find in the tenth round, though he would play only briefly in Toronto before being dealt to Cleveland. Outside of Gomes, the Blue Jays found a few nice role players, including Jake Marisnick, Aaron Loup, Ryan Goins, and others.
- Indians: 2011 (38.7 bWAR) – Selecting Francisco Lindor eighth overall in 2011 was a key to Cleveland’s 2016 AL pennant. So too was then-closer Cody Allen, whom they grabbed in the 23rd round. With Lindor mid-prime, the class’ value should just continue to grow.
- Mariners: 2006 (40.2 bWAR) – Doug Fister and Chris Tillman went on to become mid-rotation starters for a time (Fister arguably even a bit more than that), albeit with other clubs. Fifth overall pick Brandon Morrow disappointed as a starter but had a late-career renaissance as a quality reliever before various injuries derailed him.
- Orioles: 2007 (43.2 bWAR) – Although only four players from this class would wind up making the Majors, the combination of Jake Arrieta and Matt Wieters makes the 2007 draft a pretty solid one for the O’s. While Wieters, the fifth overall pick, maybe didn’t turn out to be the franchise cornerstone he was hailed to be, he has nonetheless had a nice career. Arrieta had a slow start in Baltimore, but would of course earn a Cy Young with the Cubs. It’s worth noting that this spot will be taken by the 2010 class before too long, almost entirely on the back of Manny Machado.
- Rangers: 2008 (33.3 bWAR) – Despite garnering only a 25th-round selection, Tanner Roark has turned out to be the most productive player in this class. First-round choice Justin Smoak deserves a mention too, though his career didn’t really take off until he’d been traded out of Texas. The 2011 class, headed by Kyle Hendricks, is not far behind and could claim this title in the near future.
- Rays: 2006 (81.5 bWAR) – Franchise legend Evan Longoria does a lot of the heavy lifting for this class, having amassed 56 total WAR by age 34. Even so, there are some other quality players here: Desmond Jennings and Alex Cobb are the other notables, with Jennings carving out a solid MLB career as a tenth-round pick.
- Red Sox: 2011 (70.2 bWAR) – This is far and away the best Sox draft class in recent memory, and it shouldn’t surprise anyone. Mookie Betts, one of the finest players in baseball, established himself as Boston’s franchise player after he was selected in the fifth round. Even outside of Betts, this class yielded a few key members of the Red Sox 2018 World Series team, with Jackie Bradley Jr. and relief ace Matt Barnes also coming out of that draft.
- Royals: 2007 (47.1 bWAR) – Speaking of drafting World Series contributors, the Royals in 2007 added both Mike Moustakas and Greg Holland, both of whom turned out to be central in the Royals’ playoff runs in 2014 and 2015. And that’s before mentioning third-rounder Danny Duffy, who’s still with Kansas City and inked a nice extension prior to 2017.
- Tigers: 2007 (20.6 bWAR) – With just 20.6 WAR, the Tigers’ best draft in recent memory doesn’t compare favorably to the rest of the AL, and that partly illuminates the franchise’s current standing in baseball. The notable player from the 2007 class is Rick Porcello, who had some nice years to begin his career with the Tigers and would later win a Cy Young. Maybe they get bonus points for discovering high-schooler D.J. LeMahieu, who wouldn’t sign with the team, in round 41?
- Twins: 2009 (32.4 bWAR) – Between Kyle Gibson and Brian Dozier, the Twins drafted a pair of staples on the Minnesota teams of the mid-2010s. But with both playing elsewhere now, keep an eye on the 2012 draft class, which features a trio of young centerpieces for a new era of Twins baseball: Byron Buxton, Jose Berrios, and Taylor Rogers are up-and-comers who could rack up a lot of value as they enter their primes.
- White Sox: 2010 (55.3 bWAR) – Chris Sale carries the 2010 class for the South Siders, by far the best draftee in an otherwise mediocre string of years for Chicago. That said, 2010 yielded a couple of other role players for the White Sox, with Addison Reed, Jake Petricka, and Tyler Saladino all making nice MLB contributions.
- Yankees: 2006 (69.4 bWAR) – Whereas many teams’ success in a given year is determined by one standout player, the Yankees’ installment on this list displays a surprising breadth of quality players, without a single superstar. Evidently, the 2006 Yankees cornered the market on MLB relievers: Ian Kennedy, David Robertson, Dellin Betances, Mark Melancon, and Joba Chamberlain are the five most productive players from the Bombers’ draft that year (granted, Kennedy didn’t transition to the bullpen until last year).
Each NL Team’s Top Recent Draft Class
With the MLB draft scheduled for next week, let’s take a look at each National League team’s most successful draft class in recent memory. Using Baseball Reference’s draft tracker, we can sum the combined career bWAR of each player selected by each team in a given year. It’s a simple shorthand, not a perfect measure, but it’ll give some insight into which teams have really hit on their picks in certain years.
First, a quick note on the methodology. For simplicity, we’re limiting this search to the 2006-2015 classes. A player’s value is only included if he signed with the club, although he needn’t have actually played for his drafting team in the majors. (So, the 2008 Yankees don’t get credit for drafting but failing to sign Gerrit Cole, while the 2007 Red Sox do get credit for drafting and signing Anthony Rizzo, even though he was traded before ever playing an MLB game for Boston). Of course, a player drafted in 2006 has had more time to rack up value than one drafted in 2015, so we’ll note in each team’s capsule if a more recent class is on the verge of taking over from an older class. On to the results…
- Braves: 2007 (76.6 bWAR) – Hitting on Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman in the first two rounds goes a long way. Heyward has been a disappointment with the Cubs but had some electrifying seasons in his early days in Atlanta (and his year in St. Louis), while Freeman has emerged as a fixture in the Braves’ lineup as one of the best hitters in baseball over the past decade.
- Brewers: 2009 (30.7 bWAR) – This was period of some underwhelming draft returns for Milwaukee. The 2009 class tops the list thanks to Khris Davis, Mike Fiers and Scooter Gennett, all of whom are better known for their play (or whistleblowing, in Fiers’ case) elsewhere.
- Cardinals: 2006 (56.3 bWAR) – By virtue of putting up baseball’s best record in 2005, the Cardinals sat at the back of every round in 2006. No matter, as they managed to find a handful of highly productive big leaguers. First-rounder Adam Ottavino didn’t work out in St. Louis but went on to a strong career as a reliever in Colorado. Tommy Pham (16th round) and Jon Jay (2nd round) have each carved out strong careers, while Allen Craig (8th round) had a brief but productive peak.
- Cubs: 2007 (54.4 bWAR) – Unfortunately for the Cubs, this class is almost all about Josh Donaldson, who did none of his damage in a Chicago uniform. Perhaps Javier Báez (2012 draft) or Kris Bryant (2013 draft) will match or exceed Donaldson’s stellar career in time.
- Diamondbacks: 2009 (73.1 bWAR) – Paul Goldschmidt (8th round) went on to become the top position player in franchise history. First-rounder AJ Pollock had a couple star-level seasons of his own before injuries knocked him off track, while Chase Anderson (9th round) has emerged as a solid back-of-the-rotation starter.
- Dodgers: 2006 (70.6 bWAR) – The Dodgers only signed two big leaguers from the 2006 class. When one of them goes on to become arguably the best pitcher of his generation, you can more than get away with it. Clayton Kershaw’s Hall of Fame plaque will boast at least three Cy Young Awards and an NL MVP.
- Giants: 2008 (65.6 bWAR) – The late-2000’s draft classes set up the crux of the Giants’ three World Series titles the first half of the next decade. None was more impactful than 2008, when SF grabbed Buster Posey and Brandon Crawford in the first and fourth rounds, respectively.
- Marlins: 2010 (56.1 bWAR) – Christian Yelich and J.T. Realmuto have matured into two of the best players in baseball, so the Marlins’ 2010 class (which also boasted late-blooming A’s slugger Mark Canha) has a chance to be really special. Of course, none of those players are still in Miami.
- Mets: 2010 (50.5 bWAR) – Seventh overall pick Matt Harvey was briefly the ace the Mets hoped they were adding in 2010. As it turns out, Jacob deGrom (9th round) had a lot more staying power atop their rotation.
- Nationals: 2009 (44.9 bWAR) – First overall pick Stephen Strasburg has more than made good on that selection, culminating in a World Series MVP effort in 2019. The 2009 class also brought in a handful of role players, including Drew Storen and Michael Taylor.
- Padres: 2007 (38.9 bWAR) – Another team for whom the top player simply got away, the crown jewel of the Padres’ 2007 class was Corey Kluber (4th round). Obviously, even San Diego didn’t him expect him to go on to win a pair of Cy Young Awards.
- Phillies: 2014 (24.2 bWAR) – There were some tough results for the Phillies on draft day in recent seasons, but 2014 looks to be a notable exception. Aaron Nola went seventh overall and has emerged as a high-level starter, while Rhys Hoskins (fifth round) looks like the Phils’ long-term answer at first base.
- Pirates: 2011 (29.7 bWAR) – The Pirates’ 2011 class is almost exclusively about the contributions of first overall pick Gerrit Cole, but he obviously reached his peak after being traded to Houston. Josh Bell (2nd round) looked to have turned the corner at the plate in the first half of 2019.
- Reds: 2007 (43.1 bWAR) – The Reds found three future everyday players in the 2007 class. Todd Frazier (supplemental first-round), Zack Cozart (2nd round) and Devin Mesoraco (1st round) all went on to become productive players in Cincinnati.
- Rockies: 2009 (47.4 bWAR) – The Rockies graduated six players from the 2009 class to the big leagues, although only one proved a smashing success. Finding a player of Nolan Arenado’s caliber in the second round makes for a great draft even if the rest of the players taken underwhelm.
Quick Hits: NPB, Harvey, Astros
Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball is set to open its regular season June 19. Initially, games will be played without fans in attendance, but that may not be the case the entire summer. Former MLB reliever Frank Herrmann, now a member of NPB’s Chiba Lotte Marines, tells David Laurila of Fangraphs the league has discussed allowing some number of fans into ballparks as soon as July 10, with hopes of incrementally increasing attendance moving forward if safety permits. The NPB plans to run a 120-game condensed season, down from its typical 143-game schedule.
Turning our attention to the United States…
- As we approach the ten-year anniversary of the 2010 MLB entry draft, Ken Davidoff and Dan Martin of the New York Post look back at the Mets’ selection of Matt Harvey. Then-GM Omar Minaya credits former scouting director Rudy Terrasas for staying on the right-hander even as he slumped through a difficult sophomore season at the University of North Carolina. Minaya says the club had scouts in attendance for every one of Harvey’s starts as a junior, allowing them to feel comfortable enough to select him seventh overall when his performance rebounded that season. The story of Harvey’s meteoric rise to stardom and his equally rapid fall from that peak has been told many times. Nevertheless, Mets’ fans in particular will want to check out the full piece for an entertaining look back at the caliber of player Harvey was in his prime.
- Astros GM James Click tells Brian McTaggart of MLB.com that this year’s shortened, five-round draft forces teams more than ever to draft the best prospects on their board, rather than worrying about balancing out their minor-league systems. That’s particularly true for Houston, who lost their first and second round picks this season (and next) as punishment for their sign-stealing violations. “Even if you end up drafting four very similar players, you should be able to find playing time for them at some place and at some point,” Click tells McTaggart. Even in a typical season, MLB teams almost always select the player whom they believe to be the best available talent (subject to signability) in the early rounds of the draft. Drafting for need doesn’t make the same impact in baseball, where prospects are often years away from the majors and face high rates of attrition along the way, as it might in sports like football or basketball.
Replacing Legends
If you trust Braves’ third base coach Ron Washington, Austin Riley has a long and bright future ahead of him with the Atlanta Braves, per The Athletic’s David O’Brien. Said Washington, “He’s a very, very special kid. He’s on that special level with Ozzie (Albies) and (Ronald) Acuńa (Jr.) and all those young guys. He’s on that special level with them.”
Given Washington’s stellar reputation as an infield instructor, his word carries some weight. He goes on in O’Brien’s article to laud not only Riley’s long-term future with the bat, but with the glove as well, calling Riley “a tremendous third baseman.”
While it’s certainly encouraging for Braves’ fans to hear Washington speak so highly of Riley after an up-and-down rookie season, the path ahead is not without obstacles. For starters, he hasn’t locked down his spot in the starting lineup. All accounts suggest he’s going to have to earn his keep while being pushed at third by Johan Camargo. After his first month of big-league action, it would have seemed unfathomable that Riley wouldn’t have the 2020 third base job locked down, but Camargo remains very much in the running, despite struggling himself in 2019. Camargo’s year was worth -0.6 rWAR after hitting only .233/.279/.384 over 248 plate appearances. He’s played much better in the past (4.4 fWAR from 2017 to 2018), and the Braves appear confident he can at the very least hold the line for a year.
Should Camargo get the bulk of playing time at third, Riley could get at-bats as a designated hitter – at least in theory. But O’Brien notes that the scuttlebutt out of Atlanta pegs Marcell Ozuna as the likeliest option to see heavy minutes as a potential DH. Makes sense with Ronald Acuna Jr., Ender Inciarte, and Nick Markakis on hand to handle the outfield rotation. Riley himself could even see some minutes out on the grass depending on how things shake out.
But the real question at hand here is this: is Austin Riley the third baseman of the future for the Atlanta Braves? Ron Washington certainly seems to think so. If we trust Washington’s eye for defensive talent and assume Riley can stick at third base (or even become a plus defender), the question is whether his approach at the dish can improve enough to take advantage of his otherworldly power.
After all, Riley’s power numbers last year were excellent. He managed a .471 SLG with 18 home runs in just 274 at bats. His isolated power was .245 ISO, well above average and a number you’d hope for out of a middle-of-the-order bat. For context, Acuna Jr. walked away from 2019 with a .238 ISO. A full season at Riley’s mark would put him among the top-40 mashers in the league by isolated power. His power plays.
But even with those numbers, Riley’s total offensive contribution amounted to 14 percent below league average by wRC+. He needs to round out the rest of his game – and that starts with cutting down strikeouts. Riley’s walk-to-strikeout numbers are not anywhere near where they need to be for everyday reps (5.4 BB%, 36.4 K%). Both numbers need to see significant positive regression. The good news is, Riley looked the part in spring training, where signs pointed to Riley being able to make the necessary adjustments.
Third base is a loaded position for Atlanta – in terms of poignancy – and Riley has big shoes to fill. Putting aside the big picture pressure of manning the spot once belonging to the legendary Chipper Jones, even recent history has set a high bar for Riley. Last season, Josh Donaldson returned to All-Star form with a .259/.379/.521 line, 37 rainmaking bombs, 96 runs, 94 RBIs, 132 wRC+, good for 4.9 fWAR/6.0 rWAR. Good luck replicating those numbers out the gate.
Elsewhere in the NL East, another legend moved westward after a memorable 2019. Anthony Rendon gave the Nationals seven underrated seasons at the hot corner before joining the Los Angeles Angels this winter. We could talk all day about Rendon’s performance this postseason, but those in Washington, Rendon-as-superstar was old hat: He’s been a 6+ fWAR performer for three seasons running. Beyond his consistency, there’s simply no replacing the slow-heartbeat clutch-hitting Rendon provided the Nats on their World Series run – but someone is going to have to try.
Enter Carter Kieboom. Rendon’s nominal heir apparent – at 22-years-old – is about half a year younger than Riley, and he comes sporting a shinier prospect pedigree. He’s the 21st ranked prospect overall by MLB.com and Fangraphs, while Baseball America puts him as the 15th overall prospect (admittedly, Riley wasn’t far off, topping out as Baseball America’s 22nd ranked prospect before last season).
Much like Riley, Kieboom’s role at the outset of whatever season comes next is TBD. There’s an even greater chance the Nats roll with veterans Starlin Castro, Howie Kendrick and Asdrubal Cabrera sharing at-bats between third and second. At least, that was the plan had the season begun on time. Depending on how live baseball in the pipeline shakes out, the Nats might prefer Kieboom break camp with the team just to ensure he’s continuing his development via live baseball. With a potential DH in play, there may even be enough at-bats for the Nats to accommodate playing time for Kieboom and their veteran triumvirate.
Also like Riley, Kieboom wasn’t overly impressive in his first taste of big-league action. Apologists have plenty of cause to support Kieboom even after hitting just .128/.209/.282 over an 11 game stint early in the year (which included 4 errors at shortstop). Reason being: he wasn’t ready. Kieboom’s April promotion was a case of injury-depleted desperation. The Nats were in a bind with Trea Turner on the shelf. Wilmer Difo wasn’t getting the job done as Turner’s understudy, and the Nats were off to a slow start (11-12 at the time of his debut).
The small sample hasn’t done much to lessen the optimism over Kieboom’s potential, especially after he raked for a line of .303/.409/.493 for Triple-A Fresno. The shortstop-by-nature has a long-term future at third or second in Washington, though the suggestion has been that his power will play enough to handle third, and the Nats’ other top young bat has spent most of his career at second (Luis Garcia).
Riley is about a half-season ahead of Keiboom’s trajectory, giving us more familiarity with his game at the pro level. But for comparison’s sake, Riley hit .293/.366/.626 in 44 games at Triple-A in 2019. They’re both former first-rounders (Riley #41 overall in 2015, Kieboom #28 overall in 2016), but their draft status won’t help as each looks to fill the shoes of franchise legends.
And yet, they’re not the same. Riley is a hulking light-breaker who’s defensively playing up to stick at third base. His frame is redolent of a young Ryan Zimmerman before Mr. Nat made the move across the diamond to first. Kieboom’s not a small man himself (6’2″, 190 lbs), but some scouts thought he could stick at shortstop, and he brings a contact-oriented approach. He can stroke it to all fields with potential plus power and a track record of taking walks and putting the ball in play. They’re different molds as far as third baseman go, but neither has much leeway as they try to establish themselves in the majors. Not with both the Braves and Nationals looking to contend in a season that could be as short as 50-some games.
Whenever they claim regular roles, Riley and Keiboom will be two exciting young talents to track in the NL East. The Phillies’ Alec Bohm may very well throw his hat into this ring in the very near future as well (feel free to make your case for Bohm in the comments). Bohm is another former first-rounder (third overall in 2018), but he’s spent less time in the minors and is actually older than both Riley and Kieboom. Team conditions aside, let’s say you’ve got a hole at third base and the right to poach one third base prospect. Who do you want? (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users).
Never On Top, But Still The Champs
The Washington Nationals have had more time than your average champ to take a bow after their World Series victory last October. Their win in Game Seven over the Astros more than seven months ago stands as the most recent non-exhibition game, and though Major League Baseball continues to bob and weave their way back to play amidst this pandemic, the Nats are still the champs until a new one is crowned. Luckily for baseball fans, Davey Martinez’s crew in Washington certainly made the most of their first World Series victory from a lore perspective. Their turnaround after starting 19-31 has been the most often trumpeted fact from their run to the top, but there are plenty more factoids that add flavor to the Nats’ first championship.
For example, as their Twitter account graciously reminds us, they’re “The Greatest Comeback Team In MLB History” after reversing an in-game deficit five times when facing elimination in the postseason. Then there’s Ryan Zimmerman hitting the first home run in their World Series history 15 years after the Nats made him the first-ever draft pick. Howie Kendrick certainly has a story to share, as does Stephen Strasburg, as does, believe it or not, Gerardo Parra, who bonded the clubhouse around – of all things – a South Korean children’s song.
They also became the first team to win a World Series via four road wins, they took out the Astros just weeks before news broke of the sign-stealing scandal, and they coined multiple slogans along the way, like “Stay In The Fight,” “Bumpy Roads Lead To Beautiful Places,” and “Go 1-0 Every Day.”
But despite the rings, the accolades, and the lore aplenty, there’s at least one thing the Nationals did not accomplish. The 2019 Nats became just the second team in the Wild Card Era to win the World Series without spending a single day in first place (2003 Marlins).
Of course, the introduction of the wild card in 1995 makes this fun fact possible. Since the single wild card was brought into play, we have 25 seasons of wild card history. Seven wild cards survived the gauntlet of the playoffs to win it all: 1997 Marlins, 2002 Angels, 2003 Marlins, 2004 Red Sox, 2011 Cardinals, 2014 Giants, 2019 Nationals (that’s it, right?). While the run in the early aughts gave the wild card some serious juju, the shine had worn off a bit in recent years. Still, each of the past two decades brought a 30% championship rate for wild card entrants.
Meanwhile, World Series champions on the whole over the past 25 years have spent an average of 95.88 games in first. Of course, we’re dealing with a small sample size here and a fairly large spread. A standard deviation of ~54 games means that roughly 95% of our champs should have spent somewhere between 41 and 150 games in first, meaning there really are many ways to skin this cat – especially since more than a quarter of World Series champs fell beyond those bounds (thanks a lot, sample size).
The 2016 Cubs came pretty close to running the table, leading the NL Central for 154 games before capping a season for the ages. They were outdone – White Sox fans will not be surprised to hear – by their crosstown rival. The White Sox were in first place for 161 games during the 2005 season before sweeping the Astros. They did, in fairness, share first place with the Tigers and Twins for (small) portions of the season. The ’02 Angels and ’97 Marlins, meanwhile, barely managed to escape our list by spending 12 and 11 days in first, respectively.
So while the Nationals had a season for the ages in 2019, there’s yet more for this team to accomplish (if/when play resumes for the 2020 season). The Braves would seem to rule the roost, but the Phillies held a share of the NL East lead for 60 days of the 2019 season, and the Mets took the top spot for a cool 14 days. The Marlins’ 105-loss season didn’t share a ton in common with the Nats’ by the end of the year, but this fact they shared: neither managed to lead the division for even a day.
AL Draft Notes: Mariners, Yankees, Rays
With this year’s iteration of the MLB Draft, which will begin on Wednesday, comprising just five rounds instead of the usual 40, there’s some thinking that teams will prioritize college players, about whom more is known and who tend to come with more certainty. And while we won’t know for certain until it all plays out next week, here’s the latest on several AL teams’ thinking as the truncated draft approaches.
- The Mariners are said to be once again targeting collegiate pitchers, writes Greg Johns of MLB.com. Jerry Dipoto’s club holds the sixth overall selection, and has six total picks in the draft. They’ve been linked to the likes of Emerson Hancock, and to a lesser degree Max Meyer and Reid Detmers—all college hurlers. But if infielder Nick Gonzales, widely regarded as one of the premier talents in this year’s draft class, falls out of the top five, Dipoto may deviate from that preference and nab the New Mexico State product. If the M’s do indeed opt for a college pitcher in round one, it would represent a continuation of the strategy the Seattle front office has employed in the previous two drafts: in 2018, the Mariners chose Stetson’s Logan Gilbert at no. 14; last year, they grabbed George Kirby of Elon at no. 20.
- Bryan Hoch of MLB.com is hearing that the Yankees could go after a position player with their first pick and pitchers in the later rounds. Due to the Gerrit Cole signing, the Bronx Bombers forfeited their second- and fifth-round selections, meaning that they’ll only make three selections on draft day. Per Hoch, they’ve been connected to shortstops Nick Loftin, Ed Howard, and Carson Tucker as candidates for the 28th-overall draft choice. Loftin is a Baylor product, while Howard and Tucker both come from the high school ranks. In Anthony Volpe and Anthony Seigler, Brian Cashman and company have targeted high school position players in the first round of consecutive drafts.
- The Rays have been one of the better (or perhaps, luckier) teams when it comes to finding Major League talent in the late rounds of the draft, but of course they won’t have much opportunity to continue that trend this year, given that they’ll only have five rounds (six selections) to add talent to their already-loaded farm system. As Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes, the consequences of the shortened format might be magnified for the tight-budget Rays, who are especially dependent on the draft—even the later rounds—for rounding out the organization. One example of that is 31st-round selection Kevin Kiermaier, whom MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk covered earlier today. All that said, Topkin believes the Rays likely won’t alter their philosophy of hunting for the players with the best overall chance of impacting the MLB club, with little regard for position or age.
From The 31st Round To Three Gold Gloves (And $53.5MM)
It isn’t often that a 31st-round draft pick even makes it to the big leagues, let alone enjoys a very successful Major League career. Jake Arrieta, Aaron Judge, Chris Chambliss, Cecil Fielder, Andrew Benintendi, Brad Ziegler, and Hunter Renfroe are some of the most prominent 31st-rounders chosen over the years….except none actually signed after being drafted with these picks, as the selecting teams were taking long-shot fliers to see if they could entice these prospects into starting their pro careers early.
In terms of “proper” 31st-rounders, as in players who actually did sign after being drafted, there are a few notable names in the game today: Brewers reliever Brent Suter, Mariners reliever Matt Magill, and Red Sox catcher Jett Bandy (still in Boston’s organization as a non-roster invitee). Plus, there is the other noteworthy active 31st-rounder, one who is on pace to become the best 31st-round pick in baseball history.
If you will, the Mount Rushmore of 31st-round selections…
- Jay Howell, who posted a 3.34 ERA over 844 2/3 innings from 1980-1994. Howell was a stalwart closer and setup man for many teams, including the 1988 World Series champion Dodgers.
- Pedro Feliciano, who posted a 3.33 ERA over 383 2/3 innings in parts of nine seasons from 2002-13, all with the Mets. At his peak, Feliciano was a workhorse who led the league in appearances each year from 2008-10.
- Travis Hafner, longtime Indians slugger. “Pronk” hit a whopping .273/.376/.498 with 213 homers (132 wRC+, 134 OPS+) over 4782 career plate appearances from 2002-13, with all but 369 of those PA coming in a Cleveland uniform.
And finally, there’s Kevin Kiermaier. Hafner and Kiermaier are easily the most accomplished position players to ever come out of the 31st round, with Hafner holding an edge in career fWAR (22 to 17.5) over the Rays outfielder, though Hafner also has the benefit of 583 more career games. As such, there’s still time for Kiermaier to overtake Hafner as — cue fanfare — The Best 31st-Rounder In Baseball History, which was a wholly unlikely scenario when Tampa Bay selected Kiermaier out of Parkland College in the 2010 draft.
Kiermaier made pretty quick progress through the Rays’ farm system, reaching Triple-A Durham by 2012 (albeit for just a four-game cup of coffee) and then hitting .295/.362/.431 over 571 combined plate appearances at the Double-A and Triple-A levels in 2013. That performance earned Kiermaier his first ticket to the majors, in somewhat unusual circumstances. Kiermaier made his MLB debut as a defensive substitute in the ninth inning of in the 163rd game of the Rays’ 2013 season, a tiebreaker with the Rangers to determine a wild card berth. Tampa Bay won that game and then the actual AL Wild Card game over Cleveland, with Kiermaier again making an appearance as a late-game placement.
For a Rays franchise that has long been creative in trying to find roster advantages, using a postseason roster spot on the untested Kiermaier was perfectly logical. After all, who better to serve as a defensive sub than the best defensive player in the organization? (An honor officially conferred on Kiermaier after the 2013 season.) While Kiermaier’s minor league numbers were good if unspectacular, he quickly gained notice due to his glovework, which has continued to be the case throughout his MLB career. He is a three-time Gold Glove winner, as well as the winner of both a Platinum Glove and Fielding Bible Award in 2015.
Since the start of the 2014 season and over 4966 2/3 innings in center field, Kiermaier has 112 Defensive Runs Saved and a 14.8 UZR/150. Among all other players in baseball with at least 4500 innings at a single position, only Andrelton Simmons is ahead of Kiermaier in both stat categories, with Mookie Betts also leading all players in UZR/150. Betts’ excellence has come in right field rather than the more demanding center field position, and while I’m not going to make a claim that the amazing Simmons isn’t anything less than the best defensive player of his era, Simmons did accumulate his 144 DRS with the benefit of more than 2000 more innings at shortstop than Kiermaier has played in center field.
Though Simmons had a head start by beginning his career during the 2012 season, that big innings gap underscores Kiermaier’s issues in staying on the field. From 2016-18, Kiermaier played in only 291 of 486 games due to a fractured left hand, a hip fracture, and a torn right thumb ligament. He also had a brief injured list stint last season due to a thumb sprain, but overall, 2019 was a pretty healthy season for Kiermaier, as he appeared in 129 games and made 480 plate appearances.
All of these injuries during what would have been prime years surely haven’t helped Kiermaier’s consistency at the plate. Over 847 PA in 2018-19, Kiermaier was a decidedly below-average hitter, batting just .223/.280/.386 with 21 homers. These recent struggles dropped Kiermaier to a 98 OPS+ over his career, after he had managed a 107 OPS+ through his first 1734 PA.
To be clear, if Kiermaier is able to hit at even a 98 OPS+ level while still maintaining his superb defense and strong baserunning, he is still a major asset to Tampa Bay’s team. “Asset” always carries a different meaning to the Rays than to most teams, however, given how Tampa is consistently trying to manage one of the game’s lowest payrolls. It is also particularly applicable to Kiermaier given his status as one of the few higher-paid players on the roster.
Prior to the 2017 season, Kiermaier signed a six-year extension worth $53.5MM in guaranteed money. The deal covered Kiermaier’s four arbitration years (he was Super Two eligible) and his first two free agent seasons, plus the Rays have a club option on his services for 2023 that could add another $10.5MM to the deal. It was a rare instance of the Rays making a sizeable long-term investment in a player; Kiermaier’s deal is still the second-largest contract in franchise history, behind only the Rays’ 2012 extension with Evan Longoria.
At the time of the Kiermaier extension, the Rays were betting that they were gaining cost certainty on a borderline five-tool talent, given the hitting promise Kiermaier showed over his first three seasons. Fangraphs’ value metric calculates that Kiermaier has been worth $51.1MM from 2017-19, already almost matching the cost of his extension, though he wouldn’t have earned close to that amount via the normal arbitration process. In a world where Kiermaier doesn’t sign that extension, it’s possible that the always cost-conscious Rays might have simply non-tendered or traded Kiermaier (especially given his injury history) at some point rather than pay his increasing arbitration salaries.
Kiermaier only just turned 30 years old in April, so he can truly get the injury bug behind him, there’s still plenty of time to build on what has already been a very impressive career. Becoming an elite-level center field defender is an incredible accomplishment for any player — for a 31st-round pick, it is downright astounding. Kiermaier’s success stands out all the more in a year that will see the amateur draft reduced to five rounds, as who knows how much potential talent could fall through the cracks among the hundreds of players that would have normally been drafted over 35 additional rounds. While a Kiermaier-esque success story is quite rare, it’s unfortunate that a possible next Kiermaier (or a next Hafner, or next Feliciano, or next Howell) might not even get a chance to get their career underway.
Angels To Pay Minor Leaguers Through June
The Angels will continue to pay their minor league players through the end of June, The Los Angeles Times’ Maria Torres reports. No determination has been made beyond June 30, though for now, the Angels’ minor leaguers can count on receiving the $400 weekly stipend for at least the next few weeks.
The news means that all 30 Major League clubs have now committed to paying minor league players through at least June, with the Angels and Athletics being the last two teams on board. The Athletics had planned to halt the $400 stipend at the end of May, but in the face of widespread public criticism, owner John Fisher said yesterday that the organization would be pay their farm system’s players through the end of what would have been the 2020 minor league season. “We clearly got this decision wrong,” Fisher said of his team’s initial decision.
Given all of the bad press Oakland received, it isn’t surprising that the Angels also made the call (albeit a late one) to continue the minor league stipend through June. The question could be why it took the Halos so long to make this choice, especially as several other organizations announced weeks ago that their minor leaguers would be paid through the end of either August or through early September. The Angels have been more aggressive than most other clubs in cutting costs with the season on hold, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported in May that Los Angeles was making “sweeping reductions in every division of the franchise’s operation except the Major League coaching staff” by furloughing many employees, though these staffers are still receiving benefits through the end of the year and are eligible for grants through a team-sponsored employee assistance fund.
MLB Reportedly Considering Expanded Fall League For Prospects
Amid widespread expectations that the 2020 minor league season will not be played, Major League Baseball is considering an expanded version of the annual Arizona Fall League as a means of recouping some critical game reps for prospects throughout the sport, Josh Norris and J.J. Cooper of Baseball America reported earlier this week. MLB is thinking about not only adding additional teams to the traditional AFL format but also mulling the creation of a Florida Fall League, per the report.
While the AFL usually features six teams, each made up of prospects from five MLB clubs, there’s been talk of all 30 organizations being permitted to field their own Fall League club in 2020. There would be added cost for MLB clubs under this scenario, as player are paid for AFL play — albeit at a particularly high level. Cooper and Norris write that AFL prospects generally are paid $2250 per month, plus a $750 housing stipend.
Broadly speaking, that’s an eminently manageable sum for an organization to stomach, even if it’s sending a full roster of players as opposed to just a handful of names. But we’ve also seen even the $400 weekly stipend being paid to most minor leaguers at present be utilized as a cost-saving mechanism by some clubs. The A’s initially stopped the stipend entirely as of June 1, but reversed course yesterday in the wake of widespread criticism from fans and media. Similarly, the Nationals sought to reduce the weekly payment by $100 but reversed the decision after a wave of negative reaction from fans and their own Major League players (who had banded together to cover the would-be losses for the organization’s minor leaguers). A few teams have committed to paying their minor leaguers through the end of August, when minor league seasons would’ve ended, though most have only committed through the end of the current month.
All of that is particularly notable given that the BA report suggests MLB could try to begin Fall League play “within weeks” of kicking off the regular season. (For those keeping score on odd seasonal semantics, that’d put “Spring” Training in June and “Fall” League play in July/August.) It’s not clear whether Fall League pay would be in addition to the ongoing stipend or whether it’d simply replace the stipend; presumably, that’d be left to ownership discretion on a team-by-team basis. Minor league players, after all, aren’t protected by the MLB Players Association.
Even with an expanded two-league format that allows each organization to send one team would leave each organization with close to 200 prospects missing key developmental time. Eno Sarris, Emily Waldon and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription required) tackle the matter, floating the possibility that some teams could include at least one top prospect who isn’t big league-ready as part of the proposed 20-player taxi squad that would train and work alongside the Major League roster. This proverbial “50th man” wouldn’t actually play in any MLB games, but would at least get an opportunity to at least somewhat replicate some type of normal developmental environment.
The taxi squad plan will also provide an opportunity for teams to provide work to minor league coaches and instructors who are otherwise hamstrung by the lack of a minor league season. Such coaches, instructors, training staff, etc. will be necessary since the regular Major League coaching staff would naturally be focused on the 26-30 big leaguers on the official roster.
Finding roles for these minor league coaches, coordinators, and other player development personnel is another separate issue altogether. Sarris, Waldon, and Rosenthal note that since many of these employees are furloughed within their organizations, it creates some legal gray area as to whether or not they could potentially look for a job with another team — as the Athletic trio put it, “If you are a furloughed employee on a one-year contract, are you basically a free agent?” That said, Major League Baseball took a firm stance against such “poaching” practices when the suspension of Uniform Employee Contracts was originally announced.
