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Poll: Projecting Gary Sanchez’s 2019

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With the New Year approaching, the focus in Yankees Universe continues to be on whether the club will sign Manny Machado, the transcendent, polarizing free agent who’d provide an enormous boost to the left side of its infield. However, regardless of whether Machado heads to the Bronx, it’s fair to say the Yankees won’t reach their peak potential in 2019 without a bounce-back effort from their most polarizing star, catcher Gary Sanchez.

An elite prospect throughout his time in the Yankees’ system, Sanchez burst on the scene in 2016, his abbreviated rookie season. After the Yankees promoted him for full-time duty that August, Sanchez proceeded to swat an astounding 20 home runs in just 229 plate appearances and tie Mike Trout for the majors’ best wRC+ (170). Sanchez came back to earth the next year – his first full campaign – to some degree, though he still left the yard 33 times and registered a 129 wRC+ over 525 PAs.

Based on Sanchez’s output during his initial two seasons, there was little reason to doubt he’d continue serving as one of the Yankees’ cornerstones (and one of the game’s foremost catchers) last year. Instead, Sanchez never really got off the ground during what proved to be an injury-shortened, 89-game campaign, as he slashed a mere .186/.291/.406 (89 wRC+) in 374 PAs. Not only did Sanchez’s newfound offensive struggles frustrate fans, but so did his oft-maligned defense. For the second straight year, Sanchez finished with the American League’s most passed balls (18), which also ranked last in the majors. Unsurprisingly, then, he rated poorly as a blocker at Baseball Prospectus, which graded him second last in that department.

Despite Sanchez’s woes in 2018, general manager Brian Cashman was steadfast in defending the backstop throughout the season, telling anyone who’d listen the Yankees have a franchise catcher on their hands. That hasn’t stopped this offseason, even though trade rumors featuring Sanchez have been plentiful. Earlier this month, Cashman told Jack Curry of the YES Network that Sanchez is “not for sale,” adding that the Yankees expect they’ll be “proven correct” that he’s a foundational piece.

If we’re to take Cashman at his word, it’ll continue to be Sanchez donning the tools of ignorance for the Yankees in 2019 – not a trade possibility like the Marlins’ J.T. Realmuto or the No. 1 free agent available, Yasmani Grandal. Both Realmuto and Grandal outclassed Sanchez last year, but before the latter’s Murphy’s Law 2018, he belonged in the discussion with those two and the game’s other top catchers. It’s understandable Yankees brass has the 26-year-old Sanchez’s back, then, and it becomes easier to see why when considering some of his underlying numbers from last season.

Sure, Sanchez’s overall offensive production was a colossal disappointment, but it still came with some encouraging signs. He continued to flash prodigious power, totaling 18 homers and logging a .220 ISO (well above the league average of .161). Further, compared to his previous two seasons, there weren’t any alarming trends in Sanchez’s strikeout, walk, swinging-strike, chase or contact rates. When Sanchez did put the bat on the ball, he often made it count, as he placed fifth in the majors in average exit velocity on line drives/fly balls (97.7 mph) and 19th in barrels per plate appearance (tying a pretty good duo consisting of teammate Aaron Judge and the Braves’ Ronald Acuna). Sanchez’s ability to make hard contact helped lead to a solid expected weighted on-base average (.343) which easily outdid his real wOBA (.304).

So what went wrong? Poor fortune seems largely to blame, given that Sanchez managed a meager .197 batting average on balls in play – down 111 points from the more normal-looking .308 mark he recorded between 2016-17. Granted, Sanchez didn’t help his cause by hitting far fewer line drives and far more pop-ups than he did in 2017. Sanchez’s 19.2 percent infield fly rate ranked last among qualified hitters, and because a pop-up is essentially an automatic out, that’s going to have to change going forward.

As for Sanchez’s work behind the plate, perhaps it’s unfair to regard his presence as disastrous to the Yankees’ defensive efforts. For one, the cannon-armed Sanchez caught at least 30 percent of would-be base stealers for the third consecutive year. And while blocking pitches has been a problem for Sanchez, Baseball Prospectus has assigned him high framing marks to this point. The outlet did hand Sanchez a negative overall grade in its Fielding Runs Above Average metric last season, though there were still plenty of worse catchers (admittedly, that’s faint praise).

Heading into 2019, Sanchez’s final pre-arbitration season, there’s clearly ample room for improvement both at the plate and behind it. Whether Sanchez will take the field on Opening Day is in question, though, as he’s only about a month and a half removed from left shoulder surgery. Sanchez’s shoulder – which had been an issue since 2017 – may have helped lead to his downfall last year, and if his recovery goes well, there are legitimate reasons to believe he’ll rebound in 2019. The Steamer projection system is on board, as it pegs Sanchez for 3.5 fWAR, a .245/.322/.482 line (116 wRC+) and 31 homers. How do you think he’ll fare?

(poll link for app users)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Quick Hits: Harper, Miller, Mets, Yankees, Manaea, Athletics

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Bryce Harper caused some social media buzz after the free agent outfielder “liked” an Instagram post from MLB.com questioning whether the Dodgers were the favorites for Harper’s services.  (NBC Sports Bay Area’s Dalton Johnson was among those who reported on the story.)  It should be noted that the “like” came from Harper’s verified Instagram account and thus perhaps not necessarily from Harper himself if anyone else has access to Harper’s account.  The “like” was also removed from the original post once the MLB.com account called attention to it in a follow-up posting.  It could be a hint, it could be just a misclick, or it could be somewhere in between, though speculation continues to swirl around the possibility of Harper landing in Los Angeles.

In case Santa needs some reading material during his downtime tonight, here are some Christmas Eve items from around the baseball world…

  • Both the Yankees and Mets had interest in Andrew Miller, though neither New York team extended an actual offer to the free agent lefty, SNY.tv’s Andy Martino reports (via Twitter).  “Durability concerns led them to back off,” Martino writes, as Miller was limited to just 34 innings in 2018 due to a 60-day DL stint with a knee injury, plus separate DL stints for less-serious shoulder and hamstring injuries.  Despite those issues, Miller was still able to land a two-year deal from the Cardinals worth $25MM in guaranteed money, which could end up being something of a bargain for St. Louis if Miller is healthy and able to regain his past dominance.  Both the Yankees and Mets are continuing to look for bullpen help, and the Mets have already made relief pitching a big focus of their winter business, acquiring Edwin Diaz and signing Jeurys Familia.
  • The Athletics are going “to be opportunistic and patient” in their search for starting pitching, Billy Beane told reporters (including the San Francisco Chronicle’s John Shea).  Though Mike Fiers just re-signed with the team, more work is necessary to bolster a rotation that is loaded with inexperience and injury questions.  Since the A’s can’t spend at the top of the pitching market, “waiting it out is probably the way we’re going to look at it,” Beane said, so the club will see if it can grab an arm or two once prices start to drop later in the offseason.
  • Beane also provided some news on Sean Manaea’s status, saying that the left-hander could be back in action “perhaps around the All-Star break.”  This represents another positive development in Manaea’s timeline, as the young southpaw was initially projected to miss the entire 2019 season after undergoing shoulder surgery last September.  Immediately after the procedure, however, manager Bob Melvin was cautiously optimistic that Manaea could return late in 2019.  It’ll still be a while before we have a solid idea about how long Manaea will be out, and the Athletics are also sure to be as cautious as possible with the 26-year-old.

MLBTR Originals

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Rounding up the original content from the MLB Trade Rumors writing staff over the last two weeks…

  • This offseason’s free agent market has been humming along at a respectable pace, at least in comparison to last winter’s historic lack of activity.  Jeff Todd took a look at the signing action thus far, in regards to which members of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list had found deals.  At the time of Jeff’s post on December 18, sixteen of the 50 had signed, and six more names (Andrew Miller, Anibal Sanchez, Matt Harvey, Daniel Murphy, Trevor Cahill, Joakim Soria) have also since landed new contracts.
  • Along those same lines, Mark Polishuk polled the MLBTR readership to ask which of the seven remaining unsigned members of our Top 10 free agents would be the next to ink a deal.  Yasmani Grandal was the top choice with just over 25% of the vote, though it was fourth-place finisher Michael Brantley (who netted 14.89% of the vote) who ended up signing soonest, agreeing to a two-year deal with the Astros barely 24 hours after the poll was posted.
  • Connor Byrne also put a question to the readers, asking which of Yasiel Puig or Nick Castellanos was the preferred acquisition in a Trade Candidate Faceoff.  58.55% of the vote went towards Castellanos, though apparently the Reds didn’t agree with the majority, as Cincinnati acquired Puig as part of a seven-player trade with the Dodgers last week.
  • Speaking of trades, Jose Martinez no longer appears to have a starting role with the Cardinals, and thus stands out as a candidate for a deal.  Mark explored the first base/DH market to try and find a trade partner for Martinez, though the search is complicated by Martinez’s lack of defensive prowess and the number of teams who have already addressed needs at first base.
  • Rob Huff continued his Projecting Payroll series with a look at what the Cardinals might have available to spend this winter.  Based on roster needs and past spending habits, Rob estimated that the Cards could have around $26.3MM in available funds.  A good chunk of that money has already been used up, of course, as St. Louis made a big splash in the bullpen market to sign Miller to a two-year deal worth $25MM guaranteed, plus a vesting option for 2021.
  • With the caveat that not all contract terms are made public, approximately 12 teams currently have a manager or a front office boss (a GM or a president of baseball operations) going into the last year of their contracts, as Mark details in this listing of team personnel that may or may not be on the hot seat in 2019.

Managers & Top Front Office Executives On Expiring Contracts

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Managers and front office bosses are always doing their best to progress their teams forward, though this particular list of names could be feeling a bit more pressure this coming season, as 2019 is their final guaranteed year under contract.

As always when compiling this list, a pair of caveats should be noted.  Firstly, several teams don’t publicize the lengths of management contracts, and some teams don’t even announce when new contracts have been finalized.  It could very well be that at least some of the executives listed have already quietly reached extensions beyond the 2019 season, or there could be some other names with unknown contract terms who have 2019 as their end date.

Secondly, lack of an official contract doesn’t always mean that a manager or an executive is lacking in job security.  Some clubs have unofficial handshake agreements in place with the skipper or GM/president of baseball operations, wherein the job is promised as theirs, with the specific contractual details to be hammered out at some point in the future.  In the case of managers, specifically, many do prefer some type of public agreement, if for no other reason than to avoid being perceived as a “lame duck” who lacks authority within a clubhouse.

With a big tip of the cap to Cot’s Baseball Contracts for many of these details, here are the managers and executives who are believed to be entering their final seasons…

Angels: General manager Billy Eppler is three years into his original four-year contract to run the Halos’ front office, a term that has yet to result in a winning record.  Much has been made about the Angels’ inability to build a contender around Mike Trout during the outfielder’s Cooperstown-level prime years, and time is running short in that regard, given that Trout can become a free agent the 2020 season.  In Eppler’s defense, he has added quality pieces like Andrelton Simmons, Justin Upton, and Shohei Ohtani as GM, though he has been hampered by a seemingly endless list of pitching injuries, not to mention some payroll-albatross contracts (Josh Hamilton, C.J. Wilson, and the ongoing Albert Pujols deal) left over from the tenure of previous Angels GM Jerry Dipoto.  Longtime manager Mike Scioscia had reportedly always had quite a bit of influence within the front office, though with Scioscia not returning, Eppler had the opportunity to make his own managerial hire in the form of Brad Ausmus.  There hasn’t yet been any indication that Eppler could be in particular danger of not being extended, though it’s worth noting that neither of Eppler’s predecessors in the job (Dipoto and Tony Reagins) lasted more than four years.

Blue Jays: Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi noted in September that general manager Ross Atkins was likely to receive an extension, and that such a deal wasn’t likely to receive public acknowledgement.  So, Atkins may already be locked up beyond the original end-date of his four-year deal prior to the 2016 season.  Atkins and president Mark Shapiro have planted the seeds for a rebuild over the last two seasons, and with the Jays now in full-fledged retooling mode for at least one more year, it makes sense that Atkins would continue to hold the reigns as Toronto prepares for the Vladimir Guerrero Jr. era.

Brewers: This one is a bit speculative, as terms of GM David Stearns’ original deal with the Brewers weren’t released, though The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported in October that “Stearns has at least one year left” under contract.  Stearns was hired prior to the 2016 season, so a four- or five-year deal seems pretty standard for a new general manager, particularly one that was seemingly facing a rebuild upon taking the position.  Needless to say, things are ahead of schedule in Milwaukee, as the Brewers were just a game away from the World Series last October.  Even if Stearns’ deal runs through 2020 rather than just 2019, it seems likely that Brewers ownership will have some talks about an extension this offseason given Stearns’ immediate success.

Cubs: There has already been quite a bit of speculation about Joe Maddon’s future at Wrigley Field, as the Cubs aren’t planning to discuss a new contract with the manager.  Though Maddon himself seems unperturbed about the situation and president of baseball ops Theo Epstein denied rumors of any hard feelings with his skipper, it does seem like a dugout change could be made unless the Cubs make another deep postseason run.

Diamondbacks: With two winning seasons and the 2017 NL Manager Of The Year Award on his resume in two years as manager, Torey Lovullo seems like a prime candidate for a new deal.  Though Arizona is now moving into a semi-rebuilding phase, this actually seems closer to the situation Lovullo was expected to inherit when he initially took the job, before he led the D’Backs to their surprise postseason berth in 2017.  I’d expect Lovullo to have an extension in hand by Opening Day at the latest.

Dodgers: Since president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman signed his five-year, $35MM deal to take over the Dodgers’ front office in October 2014, the club has extended its streak of NL West titles to six in a row, and finally got over the postseason hump to return to the World Series, capturing the NL pennant in each of the last two seasons.  While the Comissioner’s Trophy has remained elusive, Friedman has managed to keep the Dodgers competitive even while cutting salaries, getting the team under the luxury tax threshold last season after payrolls touched the $300MM mark earlier this decade.  This is probably another instance of an extension being just a matter of time, as the Guggenheim Baseball ownership group seemingly has every reason to want to keep Friedman in the fold for several years to come.

Giants: The leadership shakeup that installed Farhan Zaidi as the Giants’ new GM didn’t extend to the dugout, as longtime manager Bruce Bochy will return for the last year of his current contract and his 13th overall season in San Francisco’s dugout.  Bochy turns 64 in April and he has dealt with heart issues in the past, leading to some whispers that he could move into retirement and hand the job over to a new manager.  Longtime coaches Hensley Meulens and Ron Wotus have both been mentioned as possible managers-in-waiting, or Zaidi could prefer to hire a new face from outside the organization.  It also wouldn’t be a shock to see Bochy stick around in 2020 or beyond, should he want to continue managing and he forms a solid relationship with Zaidi.  Given Bochy’s championship-winning track record and the large amount of respect he holds within the organization, the possibility exists that he has already been promised the opportunity to end his tenure on his own terms.

Indians: General manager Mike Chernoff reportedly agreed to an extension with the team in November, though this is technically still an unknown situation since there wasn’t any official confirmation from either side.  That said, since Cleveland is one of the organizations that generally stays quiet about contract details for management figures, we can probably consider this one a done deal.  Chernoff was promoted to general manager in October 2015, so he could have been at the end of a three-year contract or the Tribe was getting an early jump on extending his four-year contract.  It’s also worth noting that president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti signed an extension of indeterminate length back in 2013 and we haven’t heard any further contract news since, so Antonetti could also be approaching the end of a deal…unless he also signed an unreported extension at some point.  It’s safe to assume that big changes aren’t in the offing for a team that has won three straight AL Central titles.

Marlins: “There are indications the Marlins would like to retain [Don] Mattingly beyond 2019,” MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro recently reported, though Mattingly said that he had yet to hear from the team about extension negotiations.  Mattingly has managed the Fish through three tumultuous years in the organization’s history, and the fact that he is one of the few members of the Jeffrey Loria regime still in Miami could indeed be a sign that Derek Jeter and company have interest in keeping the veteran manager around to help mentor and develop young players during the franchise’s latest rebuild.

Red Sox: Principal owner John Henry recently noted that the team was “running out of time” in regards to an extension with president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, whose five-year contract is up after the 2019 season.  (Since Dombrowski was hired in August 2015, the deal can probably be more accurately described as 4.5 years in length.)  Regardless of when the specific end-date may be, Dombrowski could hardly be in better position to land an extension in the aftermath of Boston’s World Series triumph.

Rockies: 2019 is the last guaranteed year of Bud Black’s contract as manager, though he has a bit of extra cushion since the Rockies hold a club option his services for 2020.  Since Black has led Colorado to the postseason in each of his first two seasons as manager, it seems like he’ll at least get that option exercised to add a bit more security, plus the team is likely to discuss a longer-term deal as well.

Royals: GM Dayton Moore has often reiterated that manager Ned Yost will decide on his own when to step away from the dugout, though that won’t happen for at least one more year, as Yost agreed to a one-year extension last September.  As Fancred Sports’ Jon Heyman put it, however, there is “strong belief” that Yost won’t manage beyond 2019.  The Royals’ recent hiring of Mike Matheny to a special advisor role could be another sign that the team already has a successor in place for the 2020 season.

Athletics Sign Mike Fiers

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7:31PM: Fiers will earn $14.1MM in total, according to Janie McCauley of the Associated Press (Twitter link).  The deal breaks down as $6MM in 2019, and $8.1MM in 2020.

Dec. 24, 1:02PM: The A’s have announced the deal (via Twitter).

Dec. 22:The Oakland Athletics are close to re-signing Michael Fiers, per the MLB Network’s Jon Morosi. Fiers will earn between $14MM and $15MM over a two-year span (Twitter links). The deal is pending a physical.

The dollar amount makes sense for both sides, considering Fiers was non-tendered by the A’s at season’s end while being projected to earn $9.7MM through arbitration. With this agreement, the A’s save themselves a couple million on their 2019 payroll while getting a second season of control, and Fiers gets more guaranteed money.

Fiers came to Oakland in August in exchange for two PTBNL, who turned into LHP Logan Shore and RHP Nolan Blackwood. He then contributed reliable innings for the A’s down the stretch as they struggled to keep rotation arms healthy en route to a surprising 97-win season. Pitching in the spacious arenas of Detroit and Oakland last season, Fiers tallied his best year as a pro: a 12-8 record with a 3.56 ERA across 172 innings.

Fiers threw more sliders than ever in 2018, a pitch he has steadily woven into his repertoire since 2015. The increase in slider usage corresponded with a similar decrease in sinker usage, leading to elevated launch angles and more flyballs (43.2 FB%) – all of which could signal sustainability for Fiers’ 2018 success. His peripherals don’t scream drastic transformation, though he did lower his walk rate to a career-low 1.94 BB/9.

Morosi recently reported Fiers was being courted by the Reds, Nationals, Rangers and Giants, all of whom would have been a poorer fit for Fiers, save perhaps the Giants, given his past home run issues. The Oakland Coliseum seems a good fit for the 33-year-old, who is at his best when keeping the ball in the air, but at his worst when unable to keep the ball in the yard.

Fiers ill join an unstable cadre of rotation arms in Oakland, with Daniel Mengden, Frankie Montas, Aaron Brooks, Paul Blackburn and Chris Bassitt being the in-house options for what’s sure to be another ragtag crew.

Looking For A Match In A Jose Martinez Trade

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Jose Martinez was the Cardinals’ second-best hitter in 2018, he has a .309/.372/.478 slash line over 915 career MLB plate appearances, and he isn’t eligible to hit free agency until after the 2022 season.  On most clubs, Martinez would be considered a valuable building block — in St. Louis, he has already become an afterthought.  Paul Goldschmidt has taken over as the Cards’ everyday first baseman, and with Marcell Ozuna in left field and Dexter Fowler slated for right field duty and hoping for a rebound, Martinez is now a man without a position, making him an intriguing potential trade chip as the Cardinals continue their offseason business.

Of course, there’s a good case to be made that St. Louis might not want to deal Martinez at all.  Since Goldschmidt is only under contract through 2019, the Cards may want to keep Martinez in the fold as long-term insurance if case Goldschmidt leaves in free agency.  Secondly, Martinez’s inexpensive pre-arbitration salary makes him a good asset for St. Louis to have as a bench bat.  It’s easy to imagine the Cardinals hanging onto Martinez for late-game pinch-hitting duty, or the occasional spot start should Goldschmidt, Ozuna, or Fowler require a day off.  Plus, should Fowler’s struggles continue next season, Martinez could find himself getting more regular playing time in right field.

There’s also the fact that the Cardinals seem to have already completed their biggest winter additions.  After landing Goldschmidt and Andrew Miller, the Cards’ remaining needs are relatively minor — a backup catcher, a left-handed bench bat, and perhaps another bullpen arm.  Any of these could be addressed in free agency rather than by trading Martinez.

With those arguments in mind, let’s now look at the case for why St. Louis might want to swing a deal.  For starters, trading Martinez now could be a sell-high move.  He was an unheralded prospect, who bounced around three other organizations (White Sox, Braves, Royals) before landing with the Cardinals, and Martinez didn’t really show much at the plate until 2014, when he was a 25-year-old on Atlanta’s high-A ball team.  Since Martinez turned 30 last July, he doesn’t really project as a long-term piece for the Cards.

There’s also the fact that “man without a position” is something of an apt description for Martinez even when he was getting everyday at-bats, as he has been a below-average defensive player whenever he has played around the diamond.  In 637 2/3 innings as an outfielder, Martinez has a -10.6 UZR/150 and minus-13 Defensive Runs Saved.  He hasn’t fared much better even at the less-stressful position, posting minus-6 DRS and a -2.8 UZR/150 over 936 1/3 frames at first base.  While Martinez’s defense isn’t really an issue if he’s only limited to a spot start, or an inning or two at the end of a game after a pinch-hitting appearance, his poor glovework makes him a liability should the Cards actually need him for an extended fill-in capacity in case of injury.

The Rays and Dodgers have both reportedly shown some interest in acquiring Martinez, who makes some sense on either roster.  Los Angeles is looking to add some right-handed pop to its mostly left-handed lineup, though the Dodgers could be aiming for bigger-ticket additions (such as J.T. Realmuto or A.J. Pollock) than Martinez.  It’s possible that Tampa’s recent acquisition of Yandy Diaz could have taken them out of the Martinez hunt, as Diaz is another right-handed hitting complement to Ji-Man Choi in the first base/DH mix and Diaz also offers more defensive flexibility.

The Cardinals also tried to use Martinez as a trade chip to land Will Smith from the Giants, though it doesn’t appear San Francisco had much interest.  While the Giants need corner outfield help, Martinez would be a poor fit in the spacious AT&T Park outfield, and first base is already spoken for in the form of Brandon Belt (plus, Buster Posey handles first when the Giants spell him behind the plate).

We’ve already seen some significant action within the first base market this winter, as the likes of Goldschmidt, Edwin Encarnacion, Carlos Santana (twice), Justin Bour, C.J. Cron, Matt Adams, and Steve Pearce have all been traded or signed with new teams.  Daniel Murphy will also be serving mostly as a first baseman with the Rockies, which addresses arguably the most glaring first base hole on any contending team.

It doesn’t leave much in the way of a wide-open trade market for Martinez, particularly since NL teams could be less likely to make a push given his lack of defensive prowess.  On the plus side, his four years of team control could attract rebuilding clubs as well as contenders.

The Royals or Tigers make some sense as a Martinez suitor, though K.C. has a lot of right-handed hitters already and Detroit has youngster Christin Stewart slated for some DH duty due to his own defensive shortcomings.  Martinez’s low price tag could appeal to the Mariners as they continue to cut costs, though the Cardinals would likely have to bring a third team into the trade to acquire Encarnacion, who obviously isn’t a fit in St. Louis with Goldschmidt on board.  The White Sox could use Martinez as a part-time outfielder and platoon partner with Yonder Alonso in 2019, with an eye towards a more regular role if one or both of Alonso and Jose Abreu depart in free agency after the season.  The Astros have been reportedly checking around for first base/DH help, though with Yuli Gurriel and Tyler White already provided right-handed bats, Martinez could be overkill.

Returning to the National League, one interesting option could be Goldschmidt’s former team.  The Diamondbacks are planning to give Jake Lamb some time at first base this season, though Lamb is coming off a rough 2018 and didn’t even hit left-handed pitching well even when he was in good form.  If the D’Backs added Martinez to the first base mix, that would allow them to situationally shuffle Lamb to third base, Eduardo Escobar to second, and Ketel Marte potentially to center field.  While Martinez-to-Arizona makes sense on paper, however, one would imagine the idea was already floated between the D’Backs and Cardinals when they were discussing the Goldschmidt trade.  While that doesn’t necessarily mean the Diamondbacks wouldn’t pursue Martinez in a future deal later this winter, Martinez’s non-inclusion in that initial trade could indicate some lack of interest on Arizona’s part.

AL Notes: Rays, A’s, Angels

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The Rays’ primary motivation in inserting themselves into the Athletics’ recent acquisition of Jurickson Profar was likely opening a spot on their 40-man roster, writes ESPN’s Keith Law (subscription link). In return for sending Brock Burke and Kyle Bird to Texas, the Rays received homer-prone reliever Emilio Pagan from Oakland and the Rangers’ draft pick in Competitive Balance Round A. Additional picks are always welcome, but the most important aspect of this draft pick is the slot value it adds to the Rays’ bonus pool. The pick comes with a slot value of between $1.6MM and $2MM, a valuable sum that extends beyond the pick itself. By boosting their bonus pool, the Rays have more flexibility should they want to go over slot, which is one way to snag a potential star. Given the Rays deep pool of young talent at the MLB level right now, they can afford to turn some of that excess prospect depth into further prospect wealth down the road.

A few other notes from around the American League…

  • For the Athletics’ part in the above deal, Law notes they took advantage of their own area of depth, the bullpen, to get their new starting second baseman. The signing of Joakim Soria more than makes up for the loss of Pagan, and in Profar they now have an inexpensive, versatile player who may still have some upside. Functionally, he’s not all that different from the guy he’ll be replacing, Jed Lowrie, who was brought in as a similarly high-upside, low-cost, versatile option when they went out and got him from another division rival via trade (Houston).
  • The Angels have had a tough time building a winner around Mike Trout, but they’ve suffered their share of bad luck too, particularly in the rotation, per Jonah Keri of cbssports.com. The history of injuries to promising rotation arms is disheartening: Garrett Richards with knee issues in 2014 leading up to Tommy John surgery, Matt Shoemaker getting hit in the head with a line drive near the end of a promising 2016 season, Tyler Skaggs with Tommy John in 2016, Andrew Heaney’s various ailments that kept him sidelined for most of 2016 and 2017, and of course, Shohei Ohtani’s latest injury – and that’s before even touching on the bullpen. Keri documents the poor performances of acquired position players as further misfortune suffered under Arte Moreno’s leadership: Albert Pujols, Vernon Wells, Zack Cozart and Josh Hamilton all disappointed relative to their pre-Angels production. It does begin to feel like the Angels are cursed, and yet poor major league scouting could also be the culprit in many of these cases. The recent deals for Matt Harvey and Trevor Cahill, then, nicely sidestepped the issues above by building pitching depth on short-term deals, and Keri suggests a furthering of that strategy by pursuing buy low candidates like Sonny Gray, Julio Teheran or even Yasmani Grandal, should his asking price come down.

MLBTR Poll: Who Won The Dodgers/Reds Trade?

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The Los Angeles Dodgers and Cincinnati Reds recently agreed to a seven-player trade that shook up the National League and set the rumor mill afire. In case you missed it, the deal sent the quartet of Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp, Alex Wood, and Kyle Farmer, plus $7MM cash to the Reds in exchange for Homer Bailey and two prospects: Josiah Gray and Jeter Downs, the Reds’ 13th and 8th ranked prospects, respectively, per Fangraphs. Reactions and analysis have landed on both sides of the ledger, though any subsequent transactions stemming from the payroll and roster changes on either side will give further cause for debate down the line.

The Reds have been vocal about upgrading no matter the cost this winter, especially for pitching, and while the additions were to presumably come via increased spending in free agency, here they explore a more creative means of adding talent. Having seen enough of Homer Bailey over the years, President of Baseball Ops Dick Williams put the $28MM owed Bailey to good use in acquiring three proven major league contributors. Under different circumstances, Williams might be praised for not handcuffing the team with future payroll obligations, but given that this deal feels in part driven by Cincinnati’s inability to attract major free agents, the one-year contracts of Puig, Kemp and Wood only highlights the lack of guaranteed long-term value in the return.

The primary critique here for the Reds is that they surrendered twelve total years of control in Downs and Gray, who slot in as the Dodgers’ new #7 and #16 ranked prospects, per MLB.com. The complete absence of guaranteed future value puts a lot of pressure on the team to capitalize in 2019, a real challenge coming off a 95-loss season. Should Puig, Kemp and Wood walk at the end of the year, they will have surrendered legitimate future talent for a trio that’s not likely to pull them from the depths of the NL Central. Even if the Reds do surprise this season and leapfrog the Pirates, Cardinals, Cubs and Brewers, they still could lose this trio to free agency and be worse off for the future than they were before their acquisition.

On the other hand, attendance has waned at Great American Ballpark. Puig’s power and personality both ought to play well there and give fans something to root for. Further, if for instance, they’ve been unable to get much traction on this year’s crop of lefty free agent starters, then having a one year head start with Wood might be the best way to sign him long-term in Cincinnati. Prospects are high-risk assets, and it could be the Reds don’t believe the future value of Downs and Gray is all that high. Or, they might be banking on getting better prospect value in return at the trade deadline should the Reds fall out of contention early. There’s a lot of speculation above, but the fact is the Reds front office found a way to turn Homey Bailey into two exciting, productive players/trade chips (plus Matt Kemp).

For the Dodgers, they jettisoned 6 fWAR from their 2018 pennant winning team for $28MM in dead money and a pair of prospects. If they don’t turn around and use the cost savings in free agency, that’s a lot of talent to send away just so their billionaire owners can avoid paying the luxury tax. For all Puig’s antics, he brought real fire to the club, and in his six seasons with the team, not only did he accumulate 16.8 fWAR, but they won the NL West in each of those six seasons. As for Wood, one could argue there’s a lot of uncertainty around the lefties remaining in the Dodger rotation: Clayton Kershaw and Hyun-Jin Ryu have not been fully healthy, Rich Hill, 38, is a full decade older than Wood and Julio Urias, 22, may be ready to step into the rotation, but after missing almost all of 2018, he’s far from a sure thing. Wood has his own injury history, but he is a proven asset when healthy, which he has been of late, and he carries a career 3.29 ERA (3.36 FIP, 3.49 xFIP, 3.66 SIERA). As the adage goes, you can never have enough pitching.

On the other hand, the Dodgers added two pretty decent prospects and slipped below the tax line (for now) while dealing from areas of depth. The outfield was log-jammed anyway with Kemp and Puig. Without them, there should be enough at bats to go around for Chris Taylor, Joc Pederson, Enrique Hernandez, Andrew Toles and Cody Bellinger. Plus, top prospect Alex Verdugo, still only 22, may finally have the opportunity to shine at the big league level. As for the rotation, add Walker Buehler and Kenta Maeda to the names above and the Dodgers have enough top-of-the-line starting pitching to enter 2019 even if they decide to pocket the savings from this deal. Kemp and Puig were fun, but they were volatile on-field assets who were going to siphon at bats from the younger, higher upside outfielders (namely, Bellinger and Verdugo) already on the roster.

The elephant in the room, of course, is Bryce Harper. Heads were immediately sent spinning with the possibility of this move being a precursor to the Dodgers signing Harper in free agency, and what’s worse – that makes a lot of sense. They cleared payroll space and positional opportunity, in doing so creating the market/payroll/need fit that previously didn’t seem to exist for Harper. The White Sox and Phillies are ready to spend, but they likely can’t compete with a fully armed Los Angeles payroll. The Cubs are said to be watching, the Nationals haven’t given up on him in theory, and nobody believes the Yankees when they say they aren’t interested, which is, in-and-of-itself, a testament to how classic a suitor they really are.

This blockbuster has the makings of a touchstone moment that will, in part, define this winter’s dealings, but it’s time to see where MLBTR readers land on judging the returns. Does the flexibility this deal affords the Dodgers make them the winners? Or did the Reds take advantage of the Dodgers desire to shed some payroll and walk away with the better return? Let us know your Dodgers grade, your Reds grade, and who you think “won the deal” in this poll.

Quick Hits: Kevin Cash, Orioles

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Good news Rays fans, Kevin Cash is rising the ranks, up to 9th from 15th on nbcsports.com’s list of most handsome managers, per Mark Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Apparently winning agrees with him. There’s not much action around the league here on the morning of Christmas Eve, clearly, but MLBTR will be here throughout the holiday season to keep your baseball appetite sated. For now, let’s check in with the Baltimore Orioles…

  • It’s a slow burn offseason for the Orioles and new decision-maker Mike Elias, writes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. The new Executive VP and GM has tempered expectations since taking over last month, but even after checking the first box on his to-do list in bringing new manager Brandon Hyde over from the Cubs, player acquisition remains on the backburner. Given that Elias wasn’t installed until the offseason was already underway, it’s a good sign that Baltimore seems focused on the organizational recalibration of a new regime. The work of installing new operations and philosophies organization-wide isn’t sexy work, and it doesn’t produce much fodder to keep fans interested, but as Kubatko notes, it’s more pressing than roster construction at this juncture for the Orioles.
  • That said, the additions they have made aren’t wholly irrelevant, not for a team likely to give extended tryouts to younger players at the major league level: Richie Martin, 24, is a former first rounder who hit .300 his second time through Double A last season, Drew Jackson, 25, spiked his power output to .196 ISO as he, too, repeated Double A, and Rio Ruiz, 24, has struggled at the major league level, but he’s also a known commodity for Elias, who drafted him with the first pick in the fourth round in his first season in Houston. Granted, there’s always a little smoke and mirrors when a player’s production jumps the second time through a level, and in Ruiz’s case, it’s hard to tell the difference between familiarity as a positive and sentimentality. Still, though it may not seem like much, some of Theo Epstein’s first moves in Chicago were taking Hector Rondon in the Rule 5 draft and trading for a player he’d previously drafted who had struggled to that point in the big leagues. That’s not to say Ruiz will turn into Anthony Rizzo – Rizzo was a highly touted prospect prior to his struggles in San Diego whereas Ruiz was a waiver claim – but these minor moves always have the potential to snowball into something more, and they’re the right kind of gambles for Elias and his team to be making barely a month into their Baltimore tenure.  

Quick Hits: Perez, Luzardo, D’Backs

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A few items from around the baseball world as we head into the new week…

  • “There is interest on both sides for a reunion” between the Indians and left-hander Oliver Perez, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports, though Hoynes doesn’t expect a deal (if any) to happen for at least a month.  Perez is one of many veteran relievers who may be somewhat stuck in limbo until later in the offseason as teams try to wait out the market, though the southpaw figures to draw another Major League contract based on his strong performance in 2018.  After spending Spring Training and the first two months of the season on minors contracts with the Reds and Yankees, Perez landed in Cleveland and posted a 1.39 ERA, 6.14 K/BB rate and an 11.97 K/9 over 32 1/3 innings, posting dominant numbers against both left-handed and right-handed batters.  Even expecting some regression, Perez at worst looks like he could be a LOOGY type.  Outside of closer Brad Hand, Tyler Olson is the only other left-handed reliever in the Tribe’s pen, so there’s certainly a case for Perez to return.
  • Left-handed pitching prospect Jesus Luzardo is drawing raves from both inside and outside the Athletics organization, the San Francisco Chronicle’s Susan Slusser writes, leading to increased speculation that he could begin the season on Oakland’s Major League roster.  The 21-year-old Luzardo jumped from high A-ball to Triple-A in 2018, posting a combined 2.88 ERA, 10.6 K/9, and 4.3 K/BB rate over 109 1/3 total innings.  Those numbers did include a 7.31 ERA over 16 Triple-A frames, however, and two rival scouts felt Luzardo needed a bit more minor league seasoning.  (Left unsaid were any service time considerations the A’s might have about gaining an extra year of team control over the top prospect.)  On the other hand, Luzardo’s widely-praised poise and makeup makes him seem like a good candidate to at least mentally handle the jump to the big leagues, and his talent could also be too much to ignore.  “I don’t see any way he can’t break [camp] with us,” special assistant Grady Fuson said, also favorably comparing Luzardo to several past Athletics arms.  “He’s one of the best things to come along here in a while.  If you take our own history, he has better stuff than [Mark] Mulder. He’s got better heat than [Barry] Zito. You could kind of compare him to Gio Gonzalez at the same point, but with much, much better command.”
  • With the Diamondbacks mired in a disappointing season back in August 2016, the Dave Stewart-led front office proposed a five-year rebuilding plan for the team, the Athletic’s Zach Buchanan reports (subscription required).  Largely compiled by former assistant GM Bryan Minniti, two of the plan’s main components involved trading Paul Goldschmidt and exploring an extension with shortstop Jean Segura, which created an immediate contrast to what the D’Backs actually did when Stewart was replaced by current GM Mike Hazen — Segura was the one dealt as part of a noteworthy trade with the Mariners, while Goldschmidt was kept in the fold for two more seasons, leading the Snakes to a postseason berth in 2017.  The piece is well worth a full read for a look at this potential alternate history of Arizona baseball, as Buchanan weighs the pros and cons of whether it would’ve been wiser for the D’Backs to begin a rebuild then as opposed to the semi-retooling that the club has undergone this offseason.  Of course, as one source mentioned to Buchanan, Stewart might not have been the best GM to entrust with a rebuild, given how his front office was often criticized for its approach to acquiring and evaluating minor league talent.

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