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Top 20 Remaining Free Agents

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Since free agency opened across Major League Baseball on Oct. 29, nearly half of MLBTR’s top 50 available players have come off the board. Twenty-three of those players have landed new contracts, leaving 27 without teams as the New Year approaches. Based on the original rankings compiled by MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Jeff Todd, here’s a look at where the 20 best free agents left currently stand as 2018 nears an end:

1. Bryce Harper, OF (original prediction: 14 years, $420MM): With Scott Boras as his agent, it’s unsurprising that Harper – who may be in line for a record-setting contract – remains unsigned. As you’d expect, there has been no shortage of offseason rumors centering on the 26-year-old Harper, who has been connected to his only team to date – the Nationals – as well as the Dodgers, Phillies, Braves, Cubs, Cardinals, Giants, Yankees and White Sox over the past couple months. On paper, the most logical landing spot for the superstar may be Los Angeles, which jettisoned pricey outfielders Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp in a trade with the Reds earlier this month. However, despite their financial might, the Dodgers haven’t handed out exorbitant free-agent contracts during president Andrew Friedman’s reign, and they’re reportedly not inclined to give Harper the long-term pact he wants.

2. Manny Machado, SS/3B (original prediction: 13 years, $390MM): As a 26-year-old who has been an elite player at times, Machado entered free agency in a similar position to Harper. Like Harper, Machado has drawn interest from the the Phillies, Yankees and White Sox, having met with all three teams this month. Various reports have indicated Machado wants to play for the Yankees, yet the infield-needy club doesn’t seem prepared to go to the $300MM mark for him. Regardless, we may find out his next destination soon.

3. Dallas Keuchel, LHP (original prediction: four years, $82MM): While Keuchel’s still an easily above-average starter, the career-long Astro hasn’t been able to replicate the AL Cy Young-winning form he showed in 2015. Both Keuchel’s recent decline in production and his age (he’ll be 31 on New Year’s Day) are working against him on the open market, but he’s nonetheless seeking a five-year deal. His desire for security over the next half-decade has reportedly led to leeriness from the Phillies and Nationals (and maybe others). But beyond Philadelphia and Washington, a bevy of other teams have shown interest in Keuchel during free agency. The Boras client is going to do well on his next contract, then, though he may have no choice but to drop his price before he puts pen to paper with someone.

4. Craig Kimbrel, RP (original prediction: four years, $70MM): Although Kimbrel is one of the greatest relievers in history, he showed some cracks last season as a member of the World Series-winning Red Sox. Compared to Kimbrel’s otherworldly 2017 campaign, his strikeout rate fell by nearly 11 percentage points, his swinging-strike rate dropped by more than 2.5 points and his walk rate increased by over 7 ticks. Kimbrel was still outstanding, granted, but maybe not enough to merit the massive contract he’s pursuing. The richest deal ever given to a reliever – five years, $86MM – belongs to the Yankees’ Aroldis Chapman, who signed it when he was still in his late 20s. Kimbrel will turn 31 in May, and there hasn’t been strong reported interest in him thus far. The Red Sox, Phillies, Cardinals and Braves have been connected to Kimbrel in rumors, but none of those clubs are itching to meet his demands.

5. Yasmani Grandal, C (original prediction: four years, $64MM): Grandal reportedly turned down a four-year, $60MM offer from the Mets, who have since filled their vacancy behind the plate with Wilson Ramos. In the estimation of MLBTR readers, he made a mistake in spurning the Mets’ generous proposal. Along with New York, each of the Nationals, Braves, Astros, White Sox and Angels entered the offseason as potential Grandal suitors but have since made acquisitions behind the plate. In some cases (Atlanta, Houston, Chicago and Anaheim), those pickups haven’t been particularly expensive, so perhaps Grandal will still end up in one of those cities. The longtime Dodger probably won’t continue his career with them, however, as they’ve been more connected to Marlins star J.T. Realmuto – whose presence on the trade market doesn’t do Grandal any favors – and aren’t champing at the bit to hand out a long-term deal to the switch-hitting 30-year-old.

6. A.J. Pollock, CF (original prediction: four years, $60MM): Even though he’s 31 and has dealt with a spate of injuries during his career, reports have indicated Pollock’s holding out for a lengthy commitment worth $80MM or more.  When healthy, Pollock’s probably worth that type of money. The problem is that the soon-to-be former Diamondback is coming off a three-year stretch in which he missed 249 games. Further, perhaps because of his supposed demands, a couple of the teams that have been connected to Pollock this offseason may have already moved on from him. The Astros signed Michael Brantley, while the Reds acquired Puig and Kemp. The Mets and Braves may be among the teams still in play for Pollock, a qualifying offer recipient, though the former’s GM has suggested otherwise and the latter doesn’t seem likely to give a lucrative, long-term contract to a 30-something.

7. Yusei Kikuchi, LHP (original prediction: six years, $42MM): As a free agent from Japan, the 27-year-old Kikuchi is the only player on this list with no major league track record. Further, unlike other free agents, there’s a deadline for Kikuchi to sign. Kikuchi’s Japanese team, the Seibu Lions, posted him Dec. 4, giving him and Boras until Jan. 2 to hammer out a deal with a major league club. Assuming Kikuchi does sign, there’s optimism he’ll become the latest big league success story from his homeland. In the meantime, it’s anyone’s guess which team Kikuchi will choose, as he implied earlier this month he’s open to joining any of the majors’ 30 franchises.

8. Marwin Gonzalez, UTIL (original prediction: four years, $36MM): There’s a lot to like about Gonzalez, a switch-hitting, league-average offensive player who can line up at every infield position and both corner outfield spots. Gonzalez, who will turn 30 in March, reportedly drew interest from just about every team at the start of the offseason. Things have been quiet on the Gonzalez front lately, though, aside from a connection to the Padres three weeks ago.

9. Zach Britton, RP (original prediction: three years, $33MM); 10. David Robertson, RP (OP: three years, $33MM); 11. Adam Ottavino, RP (OP: three years, $30MM): Considering these three are the best non-Kimbrel relievers available and have some common teams chasing them, we’ll group them together. The Phillies, Yankees and Red Sox have been after all three at times, and there has been plenty of interest from other clubs. Still, given that Britton, Robertson and Ottavino are all over 30, it’s unclear whether three-year estimates will prove overly optimistic.

12. Jed Lowrie, 2B (original prediction: three years, $30MM): Lowrie was one of the A’s best players and among the majors’ premier second basemen from 2017-18, but he’s also a soon-to-be 35-year-old with an extensive injury history. Moreover, he’s part of a market which features several other starting-caliber second basemen, and Oakland – arguably his most likely destination at one point – removed itself from the equation when it acquired Jurickson Profar last week. The switch-hitting Lowrie nonetheless wants a three-year deal, though he may have to settle for two.

13. Kelvin Herrera, RP (original prediction: one year, $8MM): With a strong platform season, the 28-year-old, flamethrowing Herrera may have been in line to sign the second-richest deal among relievers this winter. Instead, after a tremendous start with the Royals, he scuffled following a June trade to the Nationals. Worsening matters, Herrera’s season ended in late August on account of a torn Lisfranc ligament in his left foot. Herrera’s now making progress in his rehab, though reported interest in him has been almost nonexistent so far this offseason. Minnesota’s the only team that has been connected to Herrera on MLBTR’s pages since the 2018 campaign ended.

14. Gio Gonzalez, LHP (original prediction: two years, $24MM): Gonzalez is a longtime innings eater who has totaled at least 2.0 fWAR in nine straight seasons, yet only the Mets have shown reported interest in him thus far. He can probably thank his age (33) and somewhat disappointing 2018 for that. Compared to 2017 – one of Gonzalez’s most effective seasons – his inning, strikeout, walk and run prevention numbers all went in the wrong direction.

15. Brian Dozier, 2B (original prediction: one year, $10MM); 16. DJ LeMahieu, 2B (OP: two years, $18MM): The Nationals have been tied to these two accomplished second basemen in free agency, though it stands to reason Dozier and LeMahieu have more than one matching suitor. The Dozier rumor mill has been nearly silent, however, owing to the surprisingly poor 2018 the former Twins star endured with them and the Dodgers. LA may end up replacing Dozier with LeMahieu, who also had a less-than-ideal season from an offensive standpoint. However, the stellar defensive track record the 30-year-old LeMahieu built as a member of the Rockies at least gives him a high floor.

17. Mike Moustakas, 3B (original prediction: two years, $16MM): Moustakas was one of the most well-known stragglers on a slow-moving market last offseason. Moose entered the winter looking like a potential $85MM player, but he ultimately re-signed with the Royals in March for just a $6.5MM guarantee. Now, after his offensive production declined in 2018 between Kansas City and Milwaukee, it’s an open question whether Moustakas will do much better this offseason. So far, the Brewers, Cardinals, Phillies and Mets have shown some level of interest in the 30-year-old.

18. Cody Allen, RP (original prediction: two years, $16MM): Allen enjoyed tons of success as the Indians’ closer from 2013-17, and had that continued last season, he could have been in line for a huge contract. Unfortunately for Allen, though, his numbers came crashing down in 2018, and his velocity dropped as the year progressed. Given that teams can’t regard the 30-year-old as a shutdown option anymore, reported interest has been scarce. It seems the Indians could bring Allen back, while the division-rival Twins have also considered him.

19. Nick Markakis, OF (original prediction: two years, $16MM): Brantley and Andrew McCutchen are off the board, and Harper and Pollock are unrealistic for most teams. That could work to the advantage of Markakis, the next best free-agent outfielder available, though he’s more of a satisfactory regular than a high-impact one. Markakis was a first-time All-Star in 2018, but the 35-year-old’s offensive production cratered over the season’s last two months, giving him a final batting line that was more decent than exceptional. Still, as a roughly league-average hitter who gets on base, can handle both lefties and righties and hasn’t missed more than seven games in a season since 2012, Markakis could give some team an acceptable stopgap over the next year or two. A return to Atlanta, where he has played since 2015, may be in the offing.

20. Derek Holland, LHP (original prediction: two years, $15MM): After four straight down or injury-limited seasons with the Rangers and White Sox, Holland had to settle for a minors deal with the Giants last February. It proved to be a perfect match, as Holland made the Giants’ roster and returned to relevance in San Francisco. Across 171 1/3 innings (36 appearances, 30 starts), Holland showed better velocity than he offered in 2017 and posted a 3.57 ERA/3.87 FIP, a career-high K/9 (8.88), a personal-best infield fly percentage (11.8) and his second-highest swinging-strike rate (10.1 percent). So, even though Holland’s still unemployed, he’ll get a guaranteed contract – potentially from his old team in Texas – this offseason.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

3 Remaining Needs: AL West

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In the latest edition of MLBTR’s “3 Remaining Needs” series, we’ll focus on the American League West, which boasted two playoff teams and an 89-win third-place finisher in 2018. It appears the division will once again feature, at most, three playoff contenders in 2019, as two of its clubs are in rebuilding phases.

[Previous installments: NL East, NL Central]

Houston Astros

  • Add at least one more starter. With Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Collin McHugh set to occupy 60 percent of the Astros’ rotation in 2019, they’re obviously in better shape than most teams. Still, it’s clear the Astros are worse off than they were last season, when Dallas Keuchel, Charlie Morton and Lance McCullers Jr. followed Verlander and Cole to comprise one of the majors’ most formidable rotations. Keuchel is now in free agency, where he may land a richer deal than the Astros are willing to fork over; Morton already left for the Rays on the open market; and McCullers will miss most or all of next season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. That leaves Josh James, who turned heads as a rookie in 2018, and Framber Valdez as the Astros’ projected No. 4 and No. 5 starters going into next season. Down in the minors, the Astros have a super prospect in 6-foot-7 righty Forrest Whitley, a 21-year-old who could debut in 2019, though he has only thrown 41 innings above Single-A thus far. All that said, there’s room for at least one veteran pickup via trade or free agency.
  • Upgrade behind the plate, if possible. As with their rotation, the Astros aren’t in poor shape here. They signed the offensively solid Robinson Chirinos in free agency, and he’s slated to complement defensive wiz Max Stassi in a decent behind-the-plate tandem. Chirinos is a weak defender who’s only under contract for a year, though, while Stassi’s offense plummeted off a cliff after a hot April and May last season. Given the pair’s limitations, it’s possible the Astros will attempt to jettison the out-of-options Stassi in favor of someone better. They’ve continued to show interest in Miami’s J.T. Realmuto, the premier catcher in the game last season, but the Marlins’ asking price has been prohibitive to this point. Free agency also has one terrific option, Yasmani Grandal, whom Houston showed interest in early in the offseason. Things have been quiet since then, though.
  • Pick up a left-handed reliever. In spite of Joe Smith’s ruptured Achilles, Houston’s still stacked with proven right-handed relievers. It’s not as fortunate from the other side, however, as the only southpaw bullpen options on its 40-man roster are Cionel Perez (11 1/3 major league innings) and Reymin Guduan (19 1/3). Maybe one or both of those hard-throwing hurlers will break out next year, but in the meantime, it wouldn’t hurt to have some veteran insurance. The Astros don’t have to break the bank on the top lefty reliever in free agency, Zach Britton, although they have chased him in the past. Rather, they could go for one of the many cheaper veterans available.

Oakland Athletics

  • Improve the rotation. The Athletics went bargain hunting for starters in 2018, signing Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson and Edwin Jackson to low-cost deals. Surprisingly, all three moves paid dividends, and each of those veterans helped the injury-depleted A’s amass 97 wins and earn a wild-card berth. Cahill is now with the division-rival Angels, while Anderson and Jackson are free agents, leaving multiple glaring weaknesses in the A’s rotation. The team did re-sign Mike Fiers in free agency, but he’s not the most exciting choice, and the rest of its projected rotation includes pitchers who are either unproven or underwhelming. The A’s could certainly deploy the “opener” on a regular basis next season, as they did to positive results in 2018, yet there would still be space for actual starting additions. In true A’s fashion, they’re probably not going to make a big-money splash in free agency, but there are enough affordable veterans out there who could emerge as the Cahill, Anderson or Jackson of next year’s team.
  • Get another catcher. If you’re an A’s fan, it’s unlikely you’re eager to watch the Chris Herrmann–Josh Phegley duo in action. Those two own a combined lifetime wRC+ of 139, and neither have been defensive stalwarts. Oakland’s arguably a fit for Realmuto or Grandal, though there’s no indication the team has pursued either to this point. More realistically, a free agent such as Martin Maldonado could make sense as Jonathan Lucroy’s successor. Maldonado’s not much of a hitter, but as a longtime defensive standout, A’s pitchers would likely benefit from his presence.
  • Find left-handed relief depth. The lone lefty in the A’s bullpen is an excellent one, Ryan Buchter. There are no lefty options to be found after him, though, so the club could stand to buy itself some more aid. As noted above in the Astros section, reasonably priced free-agent possibilities abound.

Seattle Mariners

  • Keep shedding costly veterans. The Mariners were nearly a 90-win team last season, but their success in the standings didn’t convince general manager Jerry Dipoto that they were true contenders. As a result, Dipoto has undertaken an aggressive “re-imagining” campaign that has seen the Mariners part with Robinson Cano, Edwin Diaz, James Paxton, Jean Segura, Carlos Santana (acquired for Segura), Mike Zunino, Alex Colome, Juan Nicasio and Ben Gamel in a bevy of trades. There are more trade candidates on hand, too, including just-acquired veterans Edwin Encarnacion, Jay Bruce and Anthony Swarzak, not to mention holdovers Dee Gordon, Mike Leake and Kyle Seager. Admittedly, it would be a major challenge to move all (or even most) of those players, but at least a couple are real candidates to don different uniforms come 2019. Meanwhile, if it wants to continue upgrading its formerly atrocious farm system, Seattle wouldn’t have any trouble finding takers for the likes of Mitch Haniger, Mallex Smith or Marco Gonzales. It appears they’ll remain in place, however, with Dipoto hoping they’ll be key parts of the next contending Mariners team.
  • Pursue more starters and relievers. With Paxton gone, Leake and Gonzales are the only M’s starters who are good bets to perform respectably in 2019. It’s not a certainty either will be on the team then, though, nor is it clear what the club will get from Felix Hernandez, Wade LeBlanc or prized prospect Justus Sheffield (acquired for Paxton). Because Seattle’s unlikely to contend next season, it’s not going to spring for someone like Keuchel in free agency, but Japanese import Yusei Kikuchi is a worthwhile target. Dipoto has made it known he’s a fan of the 27-year-old Kikuchi, who figures to sign a deal long enough to make him a factor on Seattle’s next good team – if the GM’s plan works, of course. Regardless of whether Kikuchi becomes the latest Japanese star to join the Mariners, it would be wise for them to pursue other vet arms – both starters and relievers. They could search for their next LeBlanc, who was unexpectedly effective in 2018 after signing a cheap, major league deal, and perhaps flip the player(s) at the deadline for more prospects. Safeco Field is a good place for a pitcher to improve his stock, after all.
  • Bolster bench depth. The M’s projected bench for 2019 includes David Freitas, Ryon Healy and Kristopher Negron, with minor leaguers Dan Vogelbach, Joey Curletta, Kaleb Cowart, Dylan Moore, John Andreoli and Braden Bishop also in the 40-man fold. Aside from the mediocre Healy, there’s not an established major leaguer in the bunch. On one hand, there’s an argument Seattle should mostly stick with that group and see if anyone is capable of grabbing a role in the majors. On the other, it wouldn’t hurt to bring in vets on minor league deals or perhaps cheap MLB pacts, potentially giving the M’s more players to flip for youth during the season.

Los Angeles Angels

  • Continue searching for starters. Having added Cahill and Matt Harvey in free agency, it’s possible the Angels’ heavy lifting is done in their rotation. It probably shouldn’t be, though, as neither of the Angels’ new additions are all that trustworthy. Elsewhere in their rotation, there’s hope for Andrew Heaney, Tyler Skaggs and Jaime Barria, but they also come with question marks. If the Angels are going to make an aggressive push toward contention during Mike Trout’s final two years of control, Keuchel or Kikuchi may give them the front-end starter they don’t seem to have at the moment (the injured Shohei Ohtani excluded). Keuchel would be especially pricey, though, and it’s unknown whether owner Arte Moreno wants to spend much higher than the team’s projected Opening Day payroll of $167MM.
  • Address the bullpen. The Angels are reportedly interested in free agent David Robertson, who’d be a quality pickup for a team in need of shutdown innings late in games. He’s far from the only free-agent reliever capable of boosting the Halos, though. While most of the top free-agent relievers are righties, the team should also have its eye on lefties. After trading Jose Alvarez this month, the sole southpaw reliever on the Angels’ 40-man is Williams Jerez, who struggled mightily across 15 major league innings in 2018.
  • Buy infield insurance. The Angels are golden at shortstop with Andrelton Simmons, but the rest of their infield picture looks somewhat bleak. What if Zack Cozart scuffles again after an injury-shortened 2018? What if David Fletcher doesn’t hit enough to hold down a starting job? What if the newly signed Justin Bour puts up a second straight disappointing offensive season? Those are all valid questions the Halos have to consider, meaning they should be monitoring the market with the fear that their infield plans (Simmons aside) could go awry next season. They’re reportedly interested in free agent Josh Harrison, who’d provide a nice fallback option at both second and third. Fellow free agent Marwin Gonzalez, who can play every infield position and both corner outfield spots, would make even more sense. However, he may be out of the Angels’ price range.

Texas Rangers

  • Land more pitching. The rebuilding Rangers may trade their top starter, Mike Minor, but even if they keep him, there’s room to add to their rotation. The club already made one noteworthy pickup in Lance Lynn, whom it signed to a three-year, $30MM contract this month. With Lynn in the mix, the Rangers are likely now pushing for Kikuchi, who could slot in near the top of their rotation for several years. Besides Kikuchi, Texas should be focusing on low-cost stopgaps who can eat innings and allow young hurlers such as Jonathan Hernandez, Taylor Hearn, Brock Burke and Joe Palumbo to get more seasoning in the minors. Assuming Minor goes, Lynn would be the Rangers’ only decent bet to handle a heavy workload next season. Edinson Volquez and Drew Smyly may join Lynn in that regard, but it’s hard to be overly optimistic considering the recent arm problems which have stalled their careers. Similarly, despite the presence of lights-out closer Jose Leclerc, bullishness likely isn’t merited with Texas’ bullpen. As a non-contender, the team shouldn’t be splurging on any free-agent relievers, but it’s a logical landing spot for affordable veterans who could potentially become trade candidates during the season. The Rangers have already inked two such arms in Jesse Chavez (two years, $8MM), whom they signed last winter, traded over the summer and brought back this offseason, and Jeanmar Gomez (minor league deal).
  • Consider trading Leclerc and others. Although he enjoyed his best season in 2018, the Rangers just traded 25-year-old infielder Jurickson Profar because they didn’t believe he’d stick around for the long haul. Perhaps we’ll see even more deals along those lines from general manager Jon Daniels prior to next season. The Rangers may not have a more appealing trade chip than the 25-year-old Leclerc, whose value is likely at its zenith. Texas may try to extend Leclerc as a result, but there’s a legitimate case the team should trade him this offseason. The Rangers aren’t ready to win, and a shutdown closer isn’t a must-have piece for a team in that position. Leclerc’s controllable for the next four years, including one more pre-arb campaign, and would probably net a bounty in return. The likes of Minor, Nomar Mazara, Joey Gallo and Shin-Soo Choo also shouldn’t be untouchable, though they would bring back more modest packages than Leclerc. The club may simply hold Mazara and Gallo – who are under control for three and four more years, respectively – as opposed to selling low. The two were closer to average than spectacular in 2018, but youth is on the duo’s side (Gallo’s 25, Mazara’s 23), meaning one or both could emerge as long-term core members in Arlington. At 36 and with two years left on his deal, Choo’s time with the Rangers is waning. Choo can still produce offensively, but as an expensive DH/corner outfielder who’s on the wrong end of the aging curve, he’d probably be impossible to trade without taking back another team’s undesirable contract in return. That may not be worth the trouble for the Rangers.
  • Address third base. After the revered Adrian Beltre retired last month, third base temporarily belonged to Profar. Now that Profar’s gone, the Rangers’ No. 1 option at the hot corner looks to be Patrick Wisdom, whom they acquired from the Cardinals during the Winter Meetings. A first-round pick of the Redbirds back in 2012, Wisdom finally debuted in the majors last year and held his own, albeit over just 58 plate appearances. Maybe the 27-year-old will take the opportunity in Texas and run with it, but in the meantime, it appears the club will add a veteran fallback. Harrison and Matt Davidson are among the players who have been connected to the Rangers in the rumor mill.

Minor Transactions: 12/29/18

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The latest minor moves from around baseball…

  • The KT Wiz of the Korea Baseball Organization have re-signed outfielder Mel Rojas Jr. to a one-year, $1.6MM deal, per the Korea Joongang Daily (h/t to Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net). The 28-year-old, who’s the son of former major league pitcher Mel Rojas, had been seeking a big league job earlier this offseason, as Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported. Rojas has already been a member of two MLB organizations – Pittsburgh, which used a third-round pick on him in 2010, and Atlanta – but didn’t crack the bigs with either club. While the switch-hitting Rojas only registered a .701 OPS in 3,369 combined plate appearances in those teams’ systems, his production has skyrocketed in Asia. Since immigrating to the KBO prior to 2017, Rojas has slashed .303/.377/.579 with 61 home runs – including 43 last season – across 1,012 PAs.

Poll: Yasmani Grandal’s Next Contract

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Yasmani Grandal entered free agency as the clear-cut best catcher on the open market, but he remains without a job nearly two months after the offseason began. Part of that seems to be Grandal’s own doing, as the longtime Dodger reportedly turned down a generous proposal from the Mets – a four-year, $60MM offer. In the wake of Grandal’s rejection, the Mets pivoted to the No. 2 catcher in free agency, Wilson Ramos, whom they reeled in on a two-year, $19MM guarantee.

At the outset of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Grandal would score a four-year, $64MM contract and listed the Mets, Nationals, Rangers, Twins, Red Sox, Astros, Angels, Phillies, Braves and Rockies as potential suitors. The Twins, Red Sox, Astros, Philllies and Rockies could still be in the mix for the 30-year-old Grandal, though at least some of those teams may prefer to swing a deal for Marlins trade chip J.T. Realmuto.

It’s doubtful the other clubs are in on Grandal, on the other hand. The Nationals have already added Yan Gomes and Kurt Suzuki this winter, thus taking them out of the running for free-agent catchers who will garner major league contracts and Realmuto. The Rangers could still use a catcher, having parted with Robinson Chirinos at the start of the offseason and signed the offensively challenged Jeff Mathis, but it would be surprising to see the rebuilding franchise spend big on a 30-something player. The Angels showed interest in Grandal earlier this month, but they may be out of the equation after signing free agent Jonathan Lucroy on Friday. The Braves, meanwhile, re-signed Tyler Flowers toward the end of last season and then reunited with Brian McCann on a $2MM guarantee in free agency, giving them a pair of respected veterans.

While at least a few of the above teams may be eyeing Grandal, the only ones that have actually shown reported interest in him this winter have been the Dodgers, Reds, White Sox and the aforementioned Mets, Astros and Angels. It doesn’t appear Grandal’s going to return to the Dodgers in 2019, though, considering multiple reports have indicated they aren’t keen on bringing him back on anything other than a short-term deal. The White Sox have signed James McCann since they were first publicly connected to Grandal, and they also have capable veteran backstop Welington Castillo on hand. Cincinnati, which selected Grandal 12th overall in the 2010 draft, may still be a candidate to sign him, but it has a passable, low-cost starter in Tucker Barnhart and seems more focused on upgrading its rotation than its situation behind the plate.

The Dodgers already tried to bring Grandal back in 2019 on a $17.9MM qualifying offer, but he declined it, meaning it would cost a team significant major league payroll space, a draft pick and international bonus pool allotments to sign him. Grandal’s status as a QO recipient takes away from his appeal to some degree, yet he has nonetheless been among the majors’ most accomplished catchers over the past several years.

Since 2014, which he spent with the Padres, the switch-hitting Grandal ranks top five at his position in home runs (104; third), wRC+ (115; third) and fWAR (12.2; fifth). And while Grandal had some well-documented problems as a defender in the 2018 postseason, he’s still a highly regarded pitch framer who has thrown out a roughly league-average percentage of base stealers in his career. Clearly, then, Grandal shouldn’t have trouble finding a lucrative contract prior to next season. But it’s an open question whether he erred in saying no to the Mets’ $60MM offer.

(poll link for app users)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Angels Designate Austin Brice

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The Angels have designated right-hander Austin Brice to make room for catcher Jonathan Lucroy, whose signing is now official, Jeff Fletcher of the Southern California News Group reports.

The 26-year-old Brice didn’t last long on the Angels’ 40-man roster, as the club claimed him off waivers from the Reds on Nov. 2. A ninth-round pick of the Marlins in 2010, Brice has logged an underwhelming 5.68 ERA/5.25 FIP with 7.71 K/9 and 2.68 BB/9 in 84 major league innings, despite featuring 95 mph heat. Brice saw his most MLB action in 2018, when he threw 37 1/3 frames in Cincinnati and posted a 5.79 ERA/5.87 FIP with 7.71 K/9 and 3.13 BB/9.

While Brice has generated grounders at a solid 51.3 percent clip during his big league career, the fly balls he has allowed have been costly. Thus far, he’s the owner of a lofty 21.8 percent home run-to-fly ball rate at the game’s highest level. Brice has been far more effective in the minors, particularly in 53 1/3 innings in Triple-A, where he has pitched to a 2.87 ERA and recorded 9.3 K/9 against 2.9 BB/9.

Report: Astros, Phillies “Very Interested” In Robbie Ray

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Although Diamondbacks left-hander Robbie Ray reportedly isn’t on the block, he’s nonetheless drawing trade interest, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Both the Astros and Phillies “are very interested” in Ray, Cafardo writes.

Arizona made one notable future-oriented move earlier this offseason when it traded superstar first baseman Paul Goldschmidt to St. Louis, though indications are the Diamondbacks aren’t set to rebuild. As a result, the club may keep Ray and other valuable veterans with the hope that it’ll bounce back from an 82-win 2018 next season. It’s clear, though, that Ray stands out as one of the D-backs’ most appealing trade chips.

Just 27 years old, Ray is fresh off his fourth straight productive season in the desert, where he has posted a 3.84 ERA/3.81 FIP with 11.03 K/9, 4.00 BB/9 and a 42.5 percent groundball rate in 587 2/3 innings since 2015. Ray did experience some travails in 2018, an injury-shortened season in which he logged an ugly walk rate (5.09 per nine), a low groundball percentage (39.2) and an unspectacular FIP (4.31) over 123 2/3 frames. At the same time, though, Ray managed a respectable ERA (3.93) and, among hurlers who threw at least 120 innings, finished fifth in K/9 (12.01), 17th in swinging-strike rate (12.9 percent) and 26th in infield fly percentage (11.9).

Because Ray’s a proven, in-his-prime starter with two years of affordable control remaining – he’ll make a projected $6.1MM in 2019 – it’s likely he has garnered interest from several teams besides Houston and Philadelphia this offseason. Regardless, the fact that those two clubs are eyeing Ray makes sense.

While the Astros’ starting unit features three established veterans in co-aces Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole and solid mid-rotation arm Collin McHugh, they’ve already said goodbye to Charlie Morton in free agency, and Dallas Keuchel may be next to sign elsewhere. Further, before free agency commenced, the Astros lost Lance McCullers Jr. for 2019 on account of Tommy John surgery. As a result, their rotation has two question marks in it heading into next season, and each of Verlander, Cole and McHugh are slated to hit the open market a year from now. Ray would help cover for their potential 2020 exits to some degree.

The Phillies’ rotation isn’t facing as much upheaval over the next year as the Astros’, though Philly could cut ties with Jake Arrieta next winter. For now, Arrieta and ace Aaron Nola are entrenched in the Phils’ rotation going into 2019, with Nick Pivetta, Vince Velasquez, Zach Eflin and Jerad Eickhoff currently looking like the favorites to battle it out for the remaining three spots. Pivetta, Velasquez and Eflin had difficulty preventing runs in 2018, however, while Eickhoff totaled a mere 5 1/3 innings in the bigs on account of serious injury issues.

Quick Hits: Red Sox, Farm Systems, Kikuchi

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Rounding up the latest from around the game . . .

  • The Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham takes issue with the team’s allocation of resources, writing that the team is at risk of “going cheap” on the bullpen. As it stands, just over $8MM of the club’s projected $237MM payroll will be spent on the pen, with President of Baseball Ops Dave Dombrowski apparently noting that he would be “comfortable” entering the season with Matt Barnes or Ryan Brasier in the closer role. The club, of course, has been linked with numerous high-end relief options, including former closer Craig Kimbrel, but may be wary of incurring even steeper penalties by again eclipsing the luxury tax. Skimping on the pen is, to be sure, a Dombrowski hallmark – his early-decade Tiger teams were often pilloried for their assortment of scrap-heap late-inning options – but the longtime executive did kick off his Boston tenure with a big trade for the then-28-year-old Kimbrel, sending off top prospects Manuel Margot, Logan Allen, and Javy Guerra in the deal. The farm has been steadily pilfered since, and now stands as one of the game’s weakest, so a major acquisition via trade seems unlikely. It is true, too, that Dombrowski, wherever he has gone, has unearthed some of the game’s brightest late-inning talent, including Trevor Hoffman, Robb Nen, Matt Mantei, and Fernando Rodney.
  • MLB.com’s Jim Callis takes a look at the game’s most improved farm systems over the last calendar year, citing the Mariners, Astros, Royals, Tigers, and Twins as teams who’ve taken huge leaps forward. Seattle, of course, has done much of its heavy lifting in the area in this offseason alone, acquiring former first-rounders Justus Sheffield, Jarred Kelenic, and Justin Dunn in less than a month’s span. Of particular note from my perspective is the Twins’ system, which saw SS/OF Royce Lewis and OF Alex Kirilloff make leaps into the game’s prospect elites by the end of the season, plus enjoyed big jumps from pitchers Brusdar Graterol and Australian lefty Lewis Thorpe, the latter of whom posted one of the upper minors’ highest strikeout rates in ’18 and appears poised to make the big-league plunge.
  • Jim Allen’s piece for Kyodo News takes a behind-the-scenes-look at Japanese lefty Yusei Kikuchi, whose 30-day posting window closes on January 3. Kikuchi, it seems, has had his eye on the majors for a number of years now, sharpening his English skills weekly and making an effort to learn a two-seam fastball, which is apparently a “rare sight” on the Island. Kikuchi, of course, flew to Los Angeles two weeks ago to meet with prospective clubs, and looks to be a sought-after commodity on the rotation market this winter. In 494 1/3 innings for Seibu over the last three seasons, the 27-year-old has set down a sterling 497 batters while walking just 161, and has surrendered only 39 home runs in the process.

AL Notes/Rumors: Realmuto, Astros, Keuchel, Orioles, A. Jones

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The latest from the Junior Circuit . . .

  • The Marlins’ asking price for J.T. Realmuto has put off many a suitor, but the Astros are “still interested,” reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Per Morosi, the Fish are still insisting on one of either Forrest Whitley or outfielder Kyle Tucker, each near-consensus top-1o prospects, to headline the deal, so there’s been “no traction” in discussions. To say Whitley, 21, is drawing rave reviews in scouting circles would be to critically undersell the case – the 6’7 Texan is described by some scouts, per Baseball America, as the “best [pitching prospect] they’ve ever seen,” and has done little to discredit that view (aside, perhaps, from a 50-game suspension in early 2018 for a supposed positive banned-stimulant test) in his ascent through the system. Tucker has earned some detractors with his unorthodox swing and supposed nonchalance on the field, but he dominated (.332/.400/.590) the AAA-Pacific Coast League at age 21 and slots even higher than Whitley on some major-publication rankings. GM Jeff Luhnow, in the past, has been reluctant to deal from the cream of his system, though he did splurge in 2015’s deal for Carlos Gomez, departing with top-50 prospect Brett Phillips, top-100 Domingo Santana, and 2018 All-Star Josh Hader in the trade. Still, there is nothing close to precedent in the current Houston regime for a move of this scale.
  • In a video segment for MLB Tonight, MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart addressed the likelihood of Houston reuniting with free agent lefty Dallas Keuchel, calling the chances “slim.” Houston, apparently, has balked at the desired length of a proposed deal from Keuchel’s camp, but McTaggart believes the club could circle back if it hasn’t acquired a rotation piece by “late January.” As of yesterday, Keuchel was still believed to be seeking a deal of five years in length, and the many teams interested were far less so when broached with those demands. The Astros, with a righty-heavy, thin-back-end rotation, could certainly use their former ace, but with dual rotation-headliners Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole set to hit free agency after next season, the club may be stashing its funds in preparation.
  • Roch Kubatko of MASN Sports paints a bleak portrait of Adam Jones’ future with the Orioles, noting in a Friday mailbag that Jones’ likely earning power on the market is “more than the Orioles would give him.” Jones, 33, spent 11 seasons with the club, amassing an excellent 29.4 fWAR over the frame. His production – and in particular, his defense – has steadily waned in recent years, cratering with a dismal -18 DRS in center field last season. Jones’ days at the position are likely finished, though he may yet have value to add in a corner spot – the five-time all-star, after all, still projects around league-average next season, per Steamer, and has kept his strikeout rate low in the dawn of the swing-and-miss age.

Astros Have Shown Interest In Seth Lugo

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Per Marc Carig of The Athletic on Twitter, the Mets and Astros have been “engaged” in recent trade talks, with the ’Stros reportedly “showing interest” in right-hander Seth Lugo.

Lugo was primarily a starter throughout his minor-league career and into the early stages of his first big league tastes, but shifted mostly to the ’pen last year, to excellent results (3.17 FIP, 9.15 K/9, 2.49 BB/9). Despite his somewhat-advanced age, the 29-year-old Lugo has yet to hit arbitration and is still under team control for another four years, so he does represent an attractive trade chip for a Mets organization still in the midst of a major 25-man overhaul.

The data-hound Astros, of course, are always on the prowl for the latest edge, and may have found one in recent times with their stockpiling of spin-rate savants, viz. Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, and, most recently, mid-season pickup Ryan Pressly, whose 3225 average RPM on the curveball ranked first among all big-league arms in 2018.  Lugo, notably, placed second, with an average curve RPM of 3173, and has long been considered to have one of the game’s fiercest hammers. His fastball, though, has also earned excellent marks, with FanGraphs grading the pitch as easily plus in each of the hurler’s first three big league seasons.

Following the departure of Charlie Morton to Tampa Bay, and the near-term loss of righty Lance McCullers Jr. to Tommy John, the back end of the Houston rotation looks much thinner than in recent seasons; Collin McHugh will move back from the bullpen, and rookie Josh James looks poised for another spot, but the fifth and final position is, at current, entirely up for grabs, to say nothing of depth-related issues. Houston could look to deploy Lugo as a starter again in 2019, though his career numbers in that role (4.26 xFIP) are vastly inferior to those as a reliever (3.03 FIP, 0.55 HR/9 vs 1.23 HR/9 as a starter).

The bullpen, however, remains an unquestioned strength – returners Pressly, Hector Rondon, Will Harris, and Roberto Osuna all had excellent years in 2018, and former stalwarts Chris Devenski and Brad Peacock (13.36 K/9 in 63 1/3 IP) struggled only with the longball. Given the glut of right-handed arms, Lugo would seem a luxury here if not for the contract status of the unit’s pillars: each of Harris, Pressly, Peacock, Rondon, and the now-injured Joe Smith are entering their final years of club control, so perhaps the Astros are looking to make a preemptive strike.

The Mets have certainly solidified the back-end of the bullpen in recent days, what with the trade for Edwin Diaz and the signing of Jeurys Familia, but the rest of the unit seems mostly in shambles: Robert Gsellman, Drew Smith, and Paul Sewald round out the remainder of ’18’s top performers, and none of the trio had a particularly encouraging season. The club could certainly use a defensive-minded type in center field who isn’t a complete zero with the bat, though dealing from its weakest regiment wouldn’t seem to make much sense.

Carig does take care to note that New York is “doing background work” on the Astros’ minor-league system, and later notes that the talks are “wider-ranging,” so it does seem more pieces are potentially at play.

Trade/FA Rumblings: M’s, Encarnacion, Haniger, Rays, ChiSox, Astros, Rangers, Yanks

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The Mariners have grown “increasingly confident” they’ll be able to trade designated hitter/first baseman Edwin Encarnacion before their spring training opens, Jon Morosi of MLB.com says (video link). Encarnacion’s market has picked up in the wake of the Twins’ agreement with Nelson Cruz, whose suitors are now turning to the former. The Rays, White Sox and Astros are each “involved” on both Encarnacion and Cardinals first baseman/outfielder Jose Martinez, according to Morosi.

Encarnacion was already part of one trading involving the Rays this offseason – a three-team deal in which Cleveland sent him to to Seattle. The soon-to-be 36-year-old has been superfluous to the rebuilding Mariners’ roster since they acquired him, though, and the team likely wants to rid itself of as much of his contract as possible. Encarnacion’s owed a guaranteed $25MM through 2020, including a $5MM buyout in lieu of a $20MM club option that year. While Encarnacion was an offensive juggernaut from 2012-17, he’s coming off a somewhat pedestrian season by his standards, as he batted .246/.336/.474 (115 wRC+) in 579 plate appearances and didn’t see much time in the field. Martinez, 30, is hardly a defensive stalwart either, though he did offer quality production at the plate from 2017-18 and will collect a minimal salary in 2019.

  • Encarnacion could become the latest household name to leave Seattle, but it appears outfielder Mitch Haniger will stay put. “We’re not really listening to offers,” Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto told MLB Network of Haniger (via TJ Cotterill of the Tacoma News Tribune). “They would have to blow us away, and they haven’t even come close.” The 28-year-old “represents everything we want to build around and be about as a team,” Dipoto continued, leading Cotterill to posit that Haniger, fellow outfielder Mallex Smith and left-hander Marco Gonzales figure to form the Mariners’ next veteran core. Haniger is unquestionably the most valuable player of the trio, given his superb production from 2017-18 and four remaining years of control (including one more pre-arb campaign).
  • Before the Rangers traded him to the Athletics on Dec. 21, the Yankees were among the teams with interest in infielder Jurickson Profar, per Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News. However, New York wasn’t “willing to give up much” for Profar, Fraley writes. Texas received four minor leaguers and $750K in international bonus room for Profar, who’d have helped the Yankees cover for injured shortstop Didi Gregorius’ absence in 2019. Had the Yankees gotten Profar, whom they also showed interest in last offseason, he likely would have handled second base, thus sending Gleyber Torres to short. Although, with third baseman Miguel Andujar potentially on the block and free-agent shortstop/third baseman Manny Machado on the Yankees’ radar, it’s anyone’s guess how their infield would have aligned with Profar in it.
  • With Machado’s future up in the air for at least a few more days, the Yankees are currently focused on their bullpen, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets. Free agents David Robertson, Zach Britton and Adam Ottavino remain “in play” for the Yanks, who could sign more than one of those hurlers, Heyman notes. New York’s known to be in the market for two relievers, as it could lose both Robertson and Britton to other clubs.

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