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Pitching Market Rumors: Braves, Happ, White Sox, Kelley, Padres, Cardinals

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The Braves are interested in adding a closer this offseason, general manager Alex Anthopoulos confirmed to MLB.com’s Jon Morosi at the GM Meetings (Twitter link). That’s a fairly broad term, especially in 2018-19, so there’ll be no shortage of options for the Atlanta organization to pursue. Former Braves star Craig Kimbrel, of course, headlines the free-agent class of relievers, while Zach Britton, Andrew Miller and David Robertson are among the most recognizable names on the next tier of a fairly deep class of a relievers. Trade targets are harder to pin down, though several names have been generally kicked around the rumor mill recently, including Baltimore’s Mychal Givens, San Diego’s Kirby Yates and Seattle’s Alex Colome. Several other names will become available as the season wears on, and the Braves figure to be connected to a wide swath of ’pen options as they look to add a high-leverage reliever to the mix.

Some more bullpen and rotation rumblings from the early stages of the offseason…

  • The Blue Jays met with J.A. Happ’s representatives today, tweets Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi. General manager Ross Atkins tells Davidi that Happ is “one of my favorite people in baseball” before also acknowledging that there’ll be ample competition for his services this offseason. Happ just turned 36, but despite the fact that he’s entering the later stages of his career, he remained as effective as ever in 2018. The veteran southpaw turned in 177 2/3 innings of 3.65 ERA ball with a career-best 9.8 K/9 mark against 2.6 BB/9 and 1.37 HR/9 with a 40.1 percent grounder rate. Happ’s 10.4 percent swinging-strike rate was also the highest of his career, while his 31.7 percent chase rate was his second-best mark as a big leaguer. Fellow lefty Rich Hill received a three-year guarantee that stretched into his age-39 season a couple of years ago, so it’s conceivable that Happ could also find three-year offers (which would run into his age-38 campaign).
  • Morosi tweets that Happ and Patrick Corbin are among the names the White Sox have considered early in free agency, noting that the ChiSox only have one starter (Reynaldo Lopez) who threw more than 50 innings with a sub-4.00 ERA this past season. Rotation help is a clear area of need for the Sox, though competition for the likes of Corbin and Happ will be fierce. Both starters should draw interest from upwards of two thirds of the team in the league, with Corbin’s market being particularly robust given his status as the best arm on the 2018-19 free agent market.
  • Although veteran reliever Shawn Kelley suggested earlier this year that he could retire after the 2018 season, agent Mike McCann tells ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick that Kelley has decided to suit up for another season (Twitter links). Dr. James Andrews recently performed X-rays and an MRI on Kelley and gave him a clean bill of health, Crasnick adds. Set to turn 35 in April, Kelley pitched to a strong 2.94 ERA with 9.2 K/9, 2.0 BB/9 and 1.29 HR/9 in 49 innings this season. Kelley doesn’t throw hard (average 91.2 mph fastball in ’18) but has a lengthy track record of missing bats and has notched a sub-3.00 ERA in three of the past four seasons. The lone exception was a 2017 campaign in which he was limited to 26 innings due to a pair of back issues that landed him on the disabled list.
  • The Padres are in the market for starting pitching help this winter, reports Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, but they’ll focus on younger rotation options. San Diego’s goal, per Acee, would be to add someone to pitch at the front of the 2019 rotation and still contribute when the Friars are more concrete contenders. Unsurprisingly, he lists right-hander Nathan Eovaldi as a Padres target. Eovaldi has yet to turn 29, and his strong season split between the Rays and Red Sox — brought into a more mainstream focus with a big postseason showing — will place him on the radar for virtually every team seeking starting rotation help. San Diego did issue a club-record $144MM contract to Eric Hosmer last offseason and an $83MM extension to Wil Myers a year prior, indicating that new ownership isn’t afraid to spend money (though Eovaldi’s market almost certainly won’t push to those levels).
  • Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said today that the organization has confidence that flamethrowing right-hander Jordan Hicks could succeed as the team’s closer next season, but that confidence doesn’t necessarily mean he will be in that role (Twitter link via Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). Goold notes that the Cards could add a left-handed and right-handed reliever this winter. The Cards overhauled their ’pen in significant fashion over the summer when they released Greg Holland, outrighted Tyler Lyons and traded Sam Tuivailala to the Mariners. Since that time, Bud Norris has hit the open market and Matthew Bowman has gone to the Reds via waivers, thus further adding to the potential for turnover.

Giants Name Farhan Zaidi President Of Baseball Operations

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10:40pm: Zaidi’s contract is a five-year deal, tweets Baggarly.

9:39pm: The Giants have formally announced Zaidi’s hiring.

“I am delighted to return to the Bay Area and to join one of the most storied franchises in the game,” Zaidi said in a statement. “I have watched the Giants from afar and I have great respect for the organization’s culture and many accomplishments.  I am excited about this new opportunity and I’m looking forward to getting right to work.”

9:30pm: Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic tweets that Zaidi will be formally introduced at a press conference at 1pm PT tomorrow afternoon.

8:41pm: Dodgers general manager Farhan Zaidi has accepted an offer from the division-rival Giants to become their head of baseball operations, reports Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle (via Twitter). MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reported earlier today that the Giants had offered the title of president of baseball operations.

Farhan Zaidi | Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The addition of Zaidi brings an analytical/data-oriented approach to the Giants organization and marks a departure from the team’s longstanding pairing of Brian Sabean — who remains with the organization in an advisory role — and recently dismissed general manager Bobby Evans. That’s not to say that the Giants are completely without an analytics department, but they did come with the reputation of carrying a more traditional scouting-focused front office group. Under Zaidi, an MIT grad with a Ph.D in economics from UC Berkeley, they’ll surely beef up the implementation of more modern, data-driven decisions from a roster construction and in-game standpoint.

Early suggestions at the time of Evans’ dismissal were that the Giants would hire both a president of baseball operations and a general manager. Zaidi, presumably, will have autonomy in selecting a GM to work alongside him, though as the new president, he’ll have final say on all baseball operations matters. The bump in title was a necessity in luring Zaidi away from Los Angeles — teams generally only let their execs jump to other organizations if the offer includes a promotion — but he’s been reported to be among the organization’s top choices for the past few days.

By taking this position, the 41-year-old Zaidi will be returning to his old stomping grounds; Zaidi broke into baseball across the bay as a member of the Athletics front office, rising from a baseball operations analyst to the position of assistant GM over a more than decade-long run with the organization. While in Oakland, he aided the A’s with statistically-focused player evaluation in the draft, free agency and on the trade market, arbitration cases, contract negotiations and advance scouting.

Zaidi will be tasked with rejuvenating a Giants roster that has become stagnant as its young core has grown older. The Giants thrived earlier this decade, winning three titles in a five-year span on the backs of brilliant showings from Buster Posey, Tim Lincecum, Madison Bumgarner, Matt Cain and Pablo Sandoval, among others. That once-elite core has withered with time, and while Bumgarner and Posey remain prominent figures in the organization, each has been slowed by injuries in recent seasons. That’s true elsewhere on the roster, as well; Brandon Belt and Joe Panik, in particular, are among the Giants position players who’ve struggled to remain on the field, while high-priced pitchers Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija and Mark Melancon have each been felled by health troubles as well.

The divergent paths that could be taken under Zaidi and a newly structured front office will make the Giants one of the more fascinating teams to watch this offseason. On the one hand, CEO Larry Baer has voiced a desire to aim to be competitive every season — an attitude that likely pushed Evans and Sabean to load up on veterans last offseason. But the additions of Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria didn’t restore the organization to prominence, and Longoria’s contract now joins those of Cueto, Samardzija and Melancon as undesirable commitments that’ll be tough for the Giants to escape.

However, that desire to remain competitive comes from ownership, and if going for it in 2019 is something of a mandate, then perhaps Zaidi & Co. will seek to supplement a flawed roster as best they can. San Francisco has been mentioned as a possible landing spot for Bryce Harper for the past year-plus, and the team’s successful effort to dip under the luxury tax barrier this past season only makes them a more logical landing spot if ownership is willing to commit the money.

Conversely, though, if Zaidi and the eventual San Francisco GM ultimately conclude that a more long-term outlook needs to be taken, that narrative would quickly change. Should that be the case, the Giants could go in the extreme opposite direction, making Bumgarner available on the trade market while also dangling lefty Will Smith. Complementary pieces like Sam Dyson, Hunter Strickland and Panik could all generate varying degrees of interest. Giants leadership would have its work cut out should they try to move many veterans beyond that group, however. Posey, Melancon and Brandon Crawford all have full no-trade clauses, while Samardzija, Belt and even Bumgarner all have limited no-trade clauses in their respective contracts.

For now, it’s unclear exactly how the Giants will proceed — only that the manner in which the organization has typically operated will likely be changing, as will the general composition of the team’s front office, scouting staff and analytics department.

Dipoto Downplays Possibility Of Mariners’ Rebuild

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7:33pm: Dipoto told MLB.com’s Greg Johns at the GM Meetings that this morning’s reports were “clearly over-dramatized,” adding that the Mariners are “just too talented” to completely tear down the roster. That said, Dipoto also conceded that the Mariners are “open-minded to different ways we can get better” and expressed a desire to “re-imagine” the team’s roster while “gather[ing] as much talent as we can.”

Generally speaking, it seems as though the Mariners will be open-minded to moving shorter-term assets — Paxton and Zunino both have only two years of control remaining — while also trying to gather some controllable talent in order to supplement the pieces of the roster that remain into 2019 and beyond. The GM also suggested that the Mariners won’t rule out a reunion with Nelson Cruz, whom he called a “super human being” and a “wildly productive” player. But the team also has other needs, specifically in center field, Dipoto noted.

The column is rife with quotes from Dipoto on the offseason direction and the agile approach the Mariners will take toward offseason roster maneuverings and is worth a look for Mariners fans and those hoping that various Mariners players become available in trades.

10:48am: Facing a difficult path to improving their roster sufficiently to compete in the AL West, the Mariners are said to be weighing at least a partial sell-off of veteran assets. Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets that the organization is “considering a full-fledged teardown,” while Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times characterizes the situation as one in which the club will pursue the somewhat less dramatic path of “culling the roster of a few players who could actually bring back some younger talent to the organization” while also maintaining a competitive assortment of MLB players.

Whatever the precise course, it’ll be a fine line to walk, and one that’ll require deft handling from Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto. It’s worth noting that both reports emphasize the variability remaining in the situation. The M’s won’t simply be auctioning players off, it seems. Rather, the club is going to be demanding value. And as Divish notes, there’s also a strong countervailing wind to the concept of a rebuild. The goal, as Dipoto has himself stated recently, is to make a legitimate challenge for a World Series as swiftly as possible. Accordingly, it’s at least possible that the organization will prioritize near-to-the-majors talent over far-away, high-upside prospects.

Regardless, it’s an interesting shift in the market just as it gets underway. No doubt, the allure of the trade market is factoring into the thinking for the Mariners’ front office. That seems to be an element of the Indians’ decision to consider offers on some key veteran pitchers. The market side of the reasoning here isn’t altogether different, though it’s quite a different competitive picture for the Cleveland organization, which still has a very clear path to the postseason. With few top-end starters and relievers available for the highest bidder, there certainly could be some opportunities to achieve value.

All indications of late had been that the Mariners would consider to push to contend. There’s real talent on the roster, to be sure, and the club did just win 89 games even after a late-2018 tailspin. Certainly, the organization’s slate of contract commitments represents that of a contending team, with large and lengthy commitments to several players. Those same factors, though, also can easily be interpreted as supporting a different approach. The 2018 club arguably outperformed its true talent level and still finished 14 games out of first place in the AL West. And a crowded payroll situation makes it hard to imagine ready solutions to some of the team’s ongoing areas of need.

So, what players could be on the move? The premium assets will certainly draw the most attention, though they’ll also be the hardest to pry loose. James Paxton, Edwin Diaz, Mitch Haniger, Jean Segura, and Marco Gonzales all come with ample excess value in their control rights. Surely, it would require the right deal to part with any of these players. Of them, Paxton seems the likeliest to move, if only because the others are all controlled for at least four move seasons while he has just two left to go. Indeed, Divish indicates it’s quite likely the power lefty will be shipped out. Diaz is a fascinating potential piece on the market, as he’d easily be the most valuable relief asset available. The 24-year-old just turned in an outstanding season and his trade value was boosted by the fact that he barely missed out on Super Two qualification, which would have greatly increased his overall arbitration earning power. Haniger is likely the team’s most valuable piece, though he might also be the hardest to part with. Moving Segura’s contract might offer a means of both dropping salary and adding younger talent in one fell swoop. There’s really not much reason for the Mariners to consider dealing Gonzales, who is amply affordable and controllable (and also just agreed to an unusual new contract).

Several other players will also surely be of keen interest on the market. Veteran reliever Alex Colome is not as good, or as cheap and controllable, as Diaz, but he’d be quite an interesting alternative to the open market options for clubs needing late-inning relief talent. Several other bullpen assets could hold appeal as well. Backstop Mike Zunino has his limitations as a player, but he’s a talented defender with huge power. It would be rather challenging for the club to move its most expensive veterans, though perhaps contract-swapping arrangements of some kind can be imagined. Plenty of rivals would like to have Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager, Dee Gordon, and Mike Leake on their rosters, after all, despite their suboptimal recent track records, though certainly the remaining financial obligations would need to be sorted out somehow.

The possibilities, truly, are endless, and will depend in no small part upon precisely what Dipoto and co. are looking to accomplish. It could well be a matter of seeing what’s possible on the market, rather than setting out specifically to prioritize the addition of new talent, say, as opposed to shaving payroll. Given Dipoto’s history of dealmaking, it wouldn’t be surprising to see quite a few moves to re-shape the roster in the coming months.

Dodgers Reportedly Nearing Extension With Dave Roberts

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5:40pm: The two sides “will have” a deal, tweets Fancred’s Jon Heyman, who adds that the expectation is for a new four-year deal to be completed by tomorrow.

12:30pm: The Dodgers are “getting close” to striking a new contract with manager Dave Roberts, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). It has widely been anticipated that the sides would line up on a deal.

Roberts has overseen three productive seasons in Los Angeles, reeling off division titles and taking the club to the World Series in each of the past two seasons. Of course, the Dodgers have lost in both trips, though it’s tough to judge those results too harshly. Along the way, Roberts has worked closely with the front office to deploy a supremely deep and flexible roster.

All indications have been that the Dodgers would keep Roberts at the helm, though the mechanism for doing so hasn’t been certain. There has been plenty of optimism for a new contract, though it has also remained possible that the team would simply exercise its $1.1MM option over Roberts. It seems likely he’ll receive a significant pay bump over that salary level, which was reached when he was hired as a rookie skipper.

Lance McCullers Jr. Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

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Astros right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. underwent Tommy John surgery today and will miss the 2019 season, tweets Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle.

It’s a brutal blow for an Astros rotation that was already faced with the possibility of losing both Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton to free agency. The loss of McCullers for the upcoming season now gives the Astros a third rotation piece to potentially replace. Houston does have some internal options who’d likely be starting for other organizations; righties Collin McHugh and Brad Peacock have both proven to be viable multi-inning relievers and could potentially slot into the starting five next year depending on the moves that president of baseball operation Jeff Luhnow and the rest of the Houston front office put together.

Luhnow, in fact, spoke today about the possibility of McHugh returning to a starting role next season (Twitter link via Rome). “I’d say we have three spots fairly well locked up, if we choose to go down the path of putting (Collin) McHugh back in the rotation,” he said. “With Lance not being there, it probably increases the odds of that happening.”

That’s not quite a proclamation that McHugh will start in 2019, but it does suggest that the ’Stros are comfortable with that outcome should it be necessary. Houston also has top prospect Forrest Whitley not far from the big leagues, and it’s possible that he could emerge as a rotation piece at some point in 2019.

But Houston’s long-term rotation outlook is now murkier than ever. Beyond the loss of McCullers and the fact that Keuchel and Morton are already free agents, each of Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and McHugh will be free agents at the end of the 2019 season. Viewed through that lens, it’s all the more critical for the Astros to add some arms that are controlled for multiple seasons this winter, be they top free agents (e.g., Keuchel, Patrick Corbin, J.A. Happ, Nathan Eovaldi) or trade acquisitions (e.g., James Paxton, Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Michael Fulmer).

The Astros will still owe McCullers a raise on 2018’s $2.45MM salary — a raise they’ll gladly pay despite the fact that McCullers won’t pitch next season. That raise will be based on his 2018 results — 3.86 ERA, 10.0 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 10-6 record through 128 1/3 innings — and he’ll likely earn that amount in both 2019 and 2020. Houston controls McCullers through the 2021 season, so while agreeing to pay a player who is known to be out for the season isn’t an ideal situation, the fact that tendering him a contract also entitles the Astros to his 2020-21 seasons makes it a lock that he’ll be retained.

White Sox Extend Rick Renteria

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While it’s been believed that White Sox manager Rick Renteria is only under contract through the upcoming 2019 season, general manager Rick Hahn revealed at the GM Meetings in Carlsbad, Calif. that Renteria quietly signed an extension at some point (Twitter link via James Fegan of The Athletic). Hahn didn’t specify when the deal was inked or how long Renteria is now under contract but did state that the 2019 season is no longer the final year of Renteria’s deal.

Renteria, 57 in December, signed what was reported as a three-year, $3.6MM contract to manage the ChiSox prior to the 2017 season. Now, it seems, he’s under contract through at least the 2020 campaign — if not longer.

The White Sox are 66 games under .500 (129-195) in Renteria’s first two seasons as the team’s skipper, but that’s hardly an indictment on his abilities as a manager, given the fact that the Sox have been conducting an aggressive rebuilding effort. Renteria was named manager just in time to see Chris Sale and Adam Eaton shipped out of town, and the vast majority of Chicago’s remaining talent was traded away for prospects in the next couple seasons of his tenure.

The Chicago front office, though, is clearly pleased with the manner in which Renteria runs the clubhouse, disseminates data and info to the team’s players and handles the Chicago media. Retaining Renteria will create some continuity for the current batch of young players as the Sox look to start supplementing the prospects they’ve accumulated with some big league additions on the trade and free-agent markets — perhaps as soon as this winter.

Giants Reportedly Offer President Of Baseball Operations Title To Farhan Zaidi

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The Giants have offered Dodgers general manager Farhan Zaidi the title of president of baseball operations within their organization, tweets MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweets that the ball is in Zaidi’s court and that the Dodgers “appear prepared to sign off” on the move. Joel Sherman of the New York Post had previously reported that Zaidi was the Giants’ top candidate. Per Morosi, a decision can be expected within the next 24 hours.

Formerly an assistant general manager to Billy Beane with the Athletics, the now-41-year-old Zaidi has held his role as GM of the Dodgers since November 2014. He’d bring about a new era in San Francisco — one more commensurate with today’s data-driven baseball ops departments than the Giants had under Bobby Evans and Brian Sabean. That pairing served San Francisco quite well, delivering three World Series titles in a five-year span, but CEO Larry Baer has recently voiced a desire for a “next-gen” leader to the baseball operations team, and it seems that Zaidi is the preferred choice.

Since the time Evans was dismissed, it’s been suggested that the Giants may ultimately make two new hires atop the baseball ops hierarchy. The fact that Zaidi has been offered a president of baseball ops title speaks to the further likelihood of that scenario, though that may well also be the cost of doing business to get him in the door. Teams typically will only let their top execs leave in order to pursue a promotion, so the Giants probably couldn’t have landed Zaidi had they only been offering a lateral move to the position of GM. Nonetheless, it stands to reason that Zaidi, if hired, could add a GM to serve underneath him in the coming weeks.

Zaidi’s background with the A’s included statistically-focused player evaluation in the draft, free agency and on the trade market, arbitration cases, contract negotiations and advance scouting. He’s an MIT grad with a Ph.D in economics from UC Berkeley.

Offseason Outlook: Chicago White Sox

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The White Sox will make pitching additions as they begin to see the light at the end of the rebuilding tunnel, and have the payroll flexibility to pursue the biggest names in free agency if they so choose.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Welington Castillo, C: $7.75MM through 2019.  Includes club option for 2020.
  • Nate Jones, RP: $4.65MM through 2019.  Includes club options for 2020 and ’21.
  • Tim Anderson, SS: $23.15MM through 2022.  Includes club options for 2023 and ’24.

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[Chicago White Sox Depth Chart; Chicago White Sox Payroll Overview]

With two rebuilding years in the books, the White Sox figure to make a push toward opening their next competitive window this winter.  2019 might serve as a transitional year, with higher expectations and at least some small chance of reaching the playoffs.  GM Rick Hahn explained in September, “We’ve made no secret that when the time comes for as we’ve described adding more finishing pieces that we knew those were going to have to come via free agency.  While we are not yet in a position realistically to be adding so called finishing pieces, we are in a position where we need to be opportunistic with regards to the free agent market.”

Let’s take a look at the White Sox payroll situation.  With only Castillo, Jones, and Anderson under contract for a total of $13.3MM in 2019, it’s wide open.  We project the team’s six arbitration eligible players to total around $36.7MM, though the team could easily jettison Avisail Garcia, Leury Garcia, and Davidson if they feel they have better options.  So the team’s likely commitments are in the $38-50MM range.  An Opening Day 25-man roster payroll in the range of $110-120MM is plausible, based on the team’s historical spending.  Bottom line: this team can afford just about any contract.

In 2018, catching duties were handled by Omar Narvaez, Kevan Smith, and Welington Castillo.  Smith has already been lost to the Angels on a waiver claim.  Narvaez, 27 in February, has shown himself to be a capable hitter over the last two years.  He’s also been one of the game’s worst pitch framers and isn’t adept at throwing out attempted thieves.  Castillo was signed a year ago to take on primary catching duties, but he was popped in late May with an 80-game suspension for PED use.  The team is set to roll in 2019 with a Castillo-Narvaez tandem, with top catching prospect Zack Collins waiting in the wings.

Jose Abreu just finished his fifth season as Chicago’s first baseman.  Abreu, 32 in January, has offered a stabilizing veteran presence for the White Sox.  GM Rick Hahn has surely fielded offers over the years, but Abreu’s skillset isn’t one that would likely draw a large return on the trade market.  Now, he has only one year remaining until free agency and an ever-growing salary.  There’s no reason to push for an upgrade or trade this winter, but any contract extension would have to be fairly modest in nature.

Yoan Moncada, just 23 years old, put in his first full season as the White Sox second baseman.  The results were a mixed bag, with about league average offense and the third-highest strikeout rate in baseball.  It was still a decent season.  The idea of trying Moncada at third base or even center field has been broached, but may not be necessary for 2019.  Similarly, shortstop Tim Anderson, 25, put in a useful campaign but still has room to grow.  One of the two, more likely Moncada, may be pushed soon by 2018 first-rounder Nick Madrigal.  The Sox deployed Yolmer Sanchez at the hot corner this year, and the 26-year-old did acceptable work holding down the fort defensively and bringing energy to the team.  He may be best served back in a utility role.

Clearly, there is room for improvement in the team’s infield.  The name on everyone’s mind: Manny Machado.  Hahn made a trade offer for Machado in December, despite the shortstop’s impending free agency.  Perhaps the idea was to help sell Machado on Chicago in an attempt to sign him before he hit the open market.  The 26-year-old would easily plug in on the left side of the infield for the White Sox, though I’m guessing the team would have a slight preference to put Machado at third base rather than his preferred shortstop.  Still, I don’t think Anderson’s presence will be a major impediment to a possible pursuit.  The White Sox check all the boxes for Machado: they have the interest, need, and payroll space.

Though the franchise has never even done a $70MM contract,  let alone one that could be more than five times that, there is precedent from almost 20 years ago.  Back in 1996, the White Sox signed slugger Albert Belle to a five-year, $55MM deal that was the largest in baseball history at the time.  The deal even included a clause that required Belle to remain one of the “top three salaried players for the life of the deal,” as Claire Smith wrote in the New York Times, or else become eligible for free agency.  “We’re not being fiscally irresponsible because we can afford it,” said owner Jerry Reinsdorf at the time.  On the other hand, baseball salaries have grown well beyond inflation since 1996.  $55MM in 1996 is the same as $88MM now – not $350-400MM.

Beyond that, a push for Machado would be slightly wasted if the team wasn’t otherwise built up to contend in 2019 with major pitching additions.  Rebuilding teams have certainly signed star players “early” in the past, but getting a five-plus win season from Machado in 2019 is a key part of signing him.  So the work wouldn’t be done with just Machado. The Sox could, of course, also look to upgrade at third base with someone other than Machado.  They could attempt to trade for Maikel Franco, Kyle Seager, or Jake Lamb or sign Josh Donaldson or Mike Moustakas, for example.

Avisail Garcia is the incumbent in right field.  Garcia had multiple DL stints for a hamstring injury this year and was scheduled for knee surgery in October.  He’s been a replacement level player for his entire career outside of 2017, and he projects for an $8MM salary in his final season before free agency.  Keeping him and hoping for a rebound is a reasonable gamble given the team’s payroll space, but the White Sox could also trade or non-tender Garcia if they are thinking bigger.  Like maybe Bryce Harper bigger?  The rationale for Harper is much the same as Machado.  That said, the White Sox have a long and often contentious history with Harper’s agent, Scott Boras.  I don’t know whether Reinsdorf has an appetite for tangling with him on a record-setting contract for Harper, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility.

Left field was manned by many different players for the White Sox in 2018, mainly Nicky Delmonico, Charlie Tilson, Leury Garcia, and Daniel Palka.  The team received little production from these players, though Palka showed big power against right-handed pitching.  Generally, everyone was just keeping the seat warm for Eloy Jimenez, who is MLB-ready and currently rates as the third-best prospect in baseball.  Jimenez figures to finally get the call in late April, allowing the White Sox to control him for the better part of the next seven seasons.  Even as a rookie, he might be the team’s best player.  Jimenez could be an option at either outfield corner, and he’ll surely be a regular once he’s promoted.

Palka, 27, was a nice waiver claim for the White Sox a year ago.  He hit 27 home runs in 449 plate appearances for the Sox this year, and even with a lot of strikeouts and scarce walks, his power plays against right-handed pitching.  His defense needs work, and he’s yet to show that he can hit lefties in the Majors.  He’s an option to replace or platoon with Garcia in right field, but may be better served in a DH platoon with Matt Davidson.  Depending on whether the Sox want to keep Garcia and how they feel about Palka’s defense, they could turn to the market for a better outfielder to pair with Jimenez.  Michael Brantley, Andrew McCutchen, and Marwin Gonzalez are the best non-Harper options in free agency.  Hahn could also go down a tier to the likes of Adam Jones or Nick Markakis, though neither projects as a difference-maker on the field next year.  The trade market has a few decent options, perhaps including David Peralta, Nicholas Castellanos, Jose Martinez, Yasiel Puig, Kyle Schwarber, and Wil Myers.

The White Sox gave most of their center field playing time to Adam Engel, who got the job done defensively but served as one of the worst hitters in baseball.  A.J. Pollock is the only real free agent option.  He’d be a good fit for the Sox, except that they’d have to forfeit their second-highest draft pick and have their international signing bonus pool reduced by $500K since Pollock received a qualifying offer from the Diamondbacks.  There’s a price at which that makes sense.  The Sox could also hit the trade market, perhaps for someone semi-interesting like Michael A. Taylor or Odubel Herrera.

The team also must weigh the considerable number of outfield prospects who could arrive in the Majors about a year after Jimenez: Luis Robert, Blake Rutherford, Luis Alexander Basabe, Micker Adolfo, and Luis Gonzalez.  There’s an argument for simply adding a stopgap veteran to improve depth in 2019, and then evaluating which prospects are MLB ready for the following season.

The White Sox gave most of their DH time to Davidson and Palka this year.  The pair can make for an effective platoon.  Still, if the White Sox don’t mind tying up the spot with one player, Nelson Cruz would give an excellent boost to the offense without a long-term commitment or loss of a draft pick.

With James Shields hitting free agency, the White Sox are poised to lose their 2018 innings leader in the rotation.  They also lost top young pitcher Michael Kopech to Tommy John surgery in September.  Reynaldo Lopez, 25 in January, authored a dominant finish (five runs in his last 40 innings) to push his ERA under 4.00 for the year.  The Sox surely hope he’ll be a rotation fixture for the next five years or more.  Carlos Rodon, 26 in December, is under team control for three more seasons.  He limped to the finish line, allowing 28 earned runs over his last 27 1/3 frames.  Both pitchers are locked in for 2019, despite middling peripheral stats that should temper enthusiasm.

It’s difficult to find the bright spots in Lucas Giolito’s season.  The 24-year-old righty put up a 6.13 ERA, 6.5 K/9, 4.7 BB/9, 1.40 HR/9, and a 44.4% groundball rate in 32 starts.  Nonetheless, it sounds like Giolito is penciled in for 2019.  I imagine he won’t get another 32 starts if he doesn’t take a step forward.  Dylan Covey, a 27-year-old former first rounder, had a few flashes of brilliance and should be in the rotation mix.  Top White Sox pitching prospect Dylan Cease moved up to Double-A in June and dominated, suggesting a 2019 MLB debut.  Dane Dunning should arrive in 2019, as could Jordan Stephens.  The team’s 2015 first-round pick, Carson Fulmer, struggled mightily at both Triple-A and the Majors, and will have to pitch his way back into the picture.

Some kind of addition makes sense for this rotation.  Again, there’s really no one the White Sox can’t afford.  They can throw big money at Patrick Corbin, Dallas Keuchel, or Nathan Eovaldi, or look at more affordable options, including Hyun-Jin Ryu, Gio Gonzalez, Anibal Sanchez, Matt Harvey, Trevor Cahill, Lance Lynn, Wade Miley, or even Shields.  If he can be sold on Chicago, 27-year-old lefty Yusei Kikuchi would fit better into the team’s likely window of contention.  Garrett Richards would be another forward-looking pickup, since he should return from Tommy John surgery in 2020.  The trade market could include Tanner Roark, Sonny Gray, Marcus Stroman, Alex Cobb, Robbie Ray, Dylan Bundy, and Julio Teheran.

Hahn spoke recently of the need to “augment the rotation and the bullpen” this winter, and picked up former top prospect Manny Banuelos as a possible bullpen option.  Holdovers in the bullpen will likely include Nate Jones, Jace Fry, Aaron Bummer, and Juan Minaya.  DH/first baseman Matt Davidson could contribute more as a mop-up man, which would be a fun story.  The Sox also have interesting options who reached the Majors this year in Ian Hamilton, Jose Ruiz, Thyago Vieira, Ryan Burr, and Caleb Frare. Tommy John recipient Zack Burdi could join the mix. I wouldn’t expect the White Sox to spring for Craig Kimbrel, but there’s a slew of solid options they can go after in free agency depending on their willingness to spend.

The White Sox payroll situation cannot be stressed enough: they could theoretically add Machado ($30MM projected annual salary), Corbin ($21.5MM), Pollock ($15MM), and Jeurys Familia ($10MM) and still have a payroll within their historical norms.  Most likely, though, the White Sox are a year too early to go nuts in the offseason.  If the team falls short on or ignores Machado and other big names, fans can still dream on a strong 2019-20 free agent class.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Market Chatter: White Sox, Zunino, Kimbrel, Cards, Giants, Phils, Yanks

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What role will the White Sox play in this free agent market? It’s an open question whether the club will come away with any significant players, but it also seems increasingly likely that it will be heavily involved at all levels of the market. MLBTR did not pick the South Siders to land any of the top fifty free agents, but as noted in that post, the club could pursue quite a few of the players listed. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi even names the White Sox as potential pursuers of Manny Machado and Bryce Harper. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic points out the case for the Sox to spend (subscription link), while Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets that the club is expressing an inclination to “take a step forward now.” Meanwhile, on the other side of town, indications remain that the Cubs will not spend a big chunk of change this winter, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post is the latest to report (Twitter link).

Clearly, the White Sox are an interesting team to watch. Even if it’s arguably a bit premature for significant investments, it certainly doesn’t hurt that they play in the sport’s worst overall division. Elsewhere …

  • The competition in the AL West seems to be driving the Mariners to sell. It’s unclear as yet how deep the cuts will go, but talks are already opening up. The M’s are chatting with the Rays about catcher Mike Zunino, per Rosenthal (via Twitter). With two years of control remaining, the 27-year-old backstop presents an interesting alternative to the free agent market for catchers. He’s an inconsistent but high-powered offensive performer who is generally seen as a quality defender.
  • The Cardinals and incumbent Red Sox are among the suitors for veteran closer Craig Kimbrel, according to Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Kimbrel is among the players who appear to be candidates to land earlier-than-usual contracts, by Morosi’s reckoning. (He mentions a few possible landing spots for others on his list, though it’s not apparent that the connections are based upon more than his analysis.)
  • Certainly, it seems the motivation is there for the Cardinals to pursue significant players. As Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes, the St. Louis front office is looking hard at ways to improve. GM Mike Girsch says the team has a competitive roster as things stand, but wants to exit the offseason with “a division-leading roster.” The piece is full of worthwhile reading for Cards fans, particularly those interested in gaining some perspective on the team’s market positioning in relation to Harper and Machado. All told, it seems reasonable not to rule the Cards out as a possible pursuer of any free agent.
  • Manny and Bryce are popular considerations for most teams, of course, even if they won’t realistically be pursued by all that many organizations. The Giants are perhaps a likelier suitor than may be evident from a passing glance, John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle writes. While the San Francisco organization struggled last year, has quite a few big contracts on the books, and doesn’t currently have a GM in place, Shea says that this kind of ownership-driven decision could still be pursued.
  • Lost in the hype for those popular young free agents is the never-ending search for pitching. While the rotation was and is a strong suit for the Phillies, that doesn’t mean they can’t improve. Indeed, as Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia writes, it could make sense for the organization to use some trade assets to add a starter — in addition, of course, to pursuing a superstar position player on the open market. Salisbury tabs southpaws Robbie Ray of the Diamondbacks and James Paxton of the Mariners as two particular names to watch.
  • Likewise, as they consider their pitching options, the Yankees will look at the still-developing trade market. Per Heyman, via Twitter, the Yanks have at least some level of interest in the top arms that have newly entered the sphere of trade candidates. New York’s brass will meet with their counterparts with the Indians, who are dangling Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco. The Yankees are also said to have some interest in Paxton. Those three are among the game’s better starters, so it’s hardly surprising to hear the connections.

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