MLBTR Poll: Andrew McCutchen / Michael Brantley Contracts
As the MLBTR team put together this year’s ranking of the top fifty free agents, it became clear that there were a few bunchings of multiple players in similar market positions. That’s apparent most obviously at the top, where Bryce Harper and Manny Machado are both trying to push the bounds of what a 26-year-old star can earn (albeit at different positions), and in the sub-elite tier of the relief market, where there are a variety of very good pitchers who possess at least one or two obvious limitations on value.
It may be, though, that the tightest race between any two players — at least, in terms of ink spilled in relation to the level of contract we were debating — was between Andrew McCutchen and Michael Brantley. Proof? Tim Dierkes wrote Steve Adams and me an email on October 25th entitled, “Brantley vs Cutch revisited.”
In such situations, at some point, you’re forced to pick between the players — unless you take the easy way out (as I often do in our summer trade ranking list!) by grouping multiple players at one spot. Since Tim is made of sterner stuff than I, he was determined to put one ahead of the other — even if they ended up at the same predicted contract, as ultimately proved to be the case. I thought it’d be interesting to look back at some of our lengthy debate on the topic, and use it as a jumping-off point for a poll now that we’ve seen both players agree to deals.
It was something of an upset that Tim decided to place Brantley first. After all, he led off that aforementioned email with a series of power arguments that’d make Cutch’s agents blush: McCutchen has more power, doesn’t have platoon issues, “is indestructible,” and is a more versatile defender. Pop, offensive balance, durability, flexibility … seemed like a closed case.
Of course, there are counter-arguments in favor of Brantley, and Steve was happy to provide them in exhaustive detail. He summed up the main thrust of his viewpoint thusly: “Even if you look at their last three seasons, the only thing Cutch has on Brantley is volume of games played. Brantley has been a better hitter (same wRC+, but I’ll take the one that comes with a .300 average and half the strikeout rate) and a wildly better baserunner and defender.” With a slight age advantage to boot, there was quite a bit to like about Brantley.
It was a lively debate — and one that I was glad mostly to sit out while making observations that would keep me in the good graces of both of the warring MLBTR factions. Pro-Brantley: “He doesn’t walk. But he has super-elite contact ability that has allowed him to be a steadily outstanding producer of OBP.” Pro-Cutch: “.360+ OBP the past two years and still above-average power (which might play up in a smaller park). Plate discipline is as good as ever. Durability is a very fair point as well. Lack of platoon splits is nice.”
Ultimately, we predicted three-year, $45MM deals for both players. But that’s not how it has turned out. McCutchen secured a surprisingly hefty $50MM guarantee from the Phillies, who’ll bank on him as a steady and reliable (if not literally “indestructible”) asset for at least the next three seasons. That left us feeling optimistic about Brantley’s market, but word emerged this evening that he will not secure a third guaranteed season, reportedly agreeing to a two-year, $32MM-ish deal with the Astros. Though Houston wants to get the bat in the lineup as much as possible, it wasn’t forced to take on extra injury risk with another promised campaign in order to lure Brantley.
All that being said … how do you view the predictions and signings? (Response order randomized; poll link for app users.)
How Would You Characterize The McCutchen & Brantley Outcomes?
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Phillies overpaid; Astros got good value 64% (12,393)
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Astros took more risk; Phillies got the better/more reliable player 20% (3,849)
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Both contracts are fair -- MLBTR just whiffed on its predictions! 17% (3,240)
Total votes: 19,482
Mets Sign Wilson Ramos
Dec. 17, 9:28pm: The deal includes a $2MM signing bonus, meaning Ramos’ 2019 salary will technically be $6.25MM, per Heyman (Twitter link).
3:45pm: The Mets announced that Ramos will be introduced at a press conference Monday at 11 a.m. ET. Rosenthal tweets that in addition to the salary parameters reported by Wagner below, Ramos will earn an additional $500K if he’s able to make 100 starts at catcher in a given season.
Dec. 16, 4:44pm: It is indeed $19MM guaranteed, tweets the New York Times’ James Wagner, who adds that Ramos will earn $8.25MM next season and $9.25MM in 2020. The contract also includes either a $10MM club option or a $1.5MM buyout for 2021. The max value is $27.5MM.
3:45pm: The Mets have reached an agreement with free-agent catcher Wilson Ramos, pending a physical, according to Andy Martino of SNY. Daniel Alvarez Montes of ElExtrabase previously reported the two sides had agreed to a contract. It’s a two-year pact for the Octagon client, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets. The deal is worth $19MM, per Jon Heyman of Fancred, though Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports Ramos will receive a $19.5MM guarantee and an option for 2021. Post colleague Ken Davidoff adds that Ramos could make up to $26MM.
The Mets’ addition of Ramos takes them out of the running for Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto, whom they had been aggressively pursuing this week, as Martino notes. They’re the second team to reportedly drop out of the Realmuto sweepstakes in the past couple days, joining the NL East rival Braves.
For the Mets, losing out on Realmuto means they’ll get to keep major league assets such as Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto and Amed Rosario, all of whom had piqued the Marlins’ interest in talks. At the same time, they won’t end up with arguably the majors’ best catcher. Still, while the 31-year-old Ramos’ isn’t the prize Realmuto would have been for New York, he should provide the team with a quality starter behind the plate.
Ramos, set to join his third NL East team (he was previously with Washington and Philadelphia), has batted .273/.317/.439 (103 wRC+) across 2,944 major league plate appearances, making him an easily above-average offensive catcher. Defensively, Ramos has caught a lifetime 32 percent of would-be base stealers, beating out the 28 percent league average, and earned positive marks behind the plate from Baseball Prospectus for the majority of his MLB career.
In 2018 – which he divided between the Rays and Phillies – Ramos enjoyed arguably his best offensive season, slashing .306/.358/.487 (130 wRC+) with 15 home runs in 416 PAs. Ramos also caught 29 percent of would-be base thieves and received decent overall grades from BP. It was clearly a strong rebound campaign for Ramos, who only appeared in 64 games in 2017 with the Rays as he worked his way back from the torn right ACL he suffered as a member of the Nats late in 2016.
Ramos has torn his right ACL twice in his major league career, which is especially troubling for an aging backstop. But he still doesn’t come with the injury concerns of fellow Mets catcher Travis d’Arnaud, who missed all but four games last year as a result of a partial UCL tear, has only appeared in upward of 100 games twice in his career and, when healthy, hasn’t lived up to the hype he had as a prospect. D’Arnaud now figures to back up Ramos, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, calling into question what the Mets will do with fellow catchers Kevin Plawecki and Tomas Nido. Speculatively, the out-of-options Plawecki – a former top-100 prospect – could be a trade candidate.
Entering the offseason, MLBTR forecast a three-year, $36MM guarantee for Ramos, who will fall short of that with his new club. His departure from the open market easily leaves Yasmani Grandal as the premier catcher available in free agency. The Mets also had interest in Grandal, but as a qualifying offer recipient, signing him would have forced them to surrender their second-highest draft pick in 2019, $500K in international bonus space and a significant amount of their major league payroll room. Ramos only cost money, on the other hand, but his signing still counts as yet another major move in the Brodie Van Wagenen era. The rookie GM had been aggressive even before the Ramos agreement, as he acquired Robinson Cano, Edwin Diaz and Jeurys Familia over the past couple weeks. Van Wagenen’s likely not done yet, either, as he attempts to construct a roster capable of trumping the sub-.500 versions the Mets fielded from 2017-18.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Minor MLB Transactions: 12/17/18
Here are some of the day’s notable minor transactions …
- The Yankees have a minors deal in place with veteran southpaw Rex Brothers, per Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter). Brothers, who’ll turn 31 tomorrow, still has an intriguingly high-powered left arm — he pumped 97 in his lone MLB appearance in 2018 — that’s capable of racking up swings and misses. Unfortunately, Brothers has also been exceedingly prone to issuing free passes over his career. Last year, at Triple-A, he recorded a 56:44 K/BB ratio in 40 2/3 frames. It’s an extreme profile, but the Yanks will take a shot at trying to harness the upside. At a minimum, the team will add an experienced reliever to its depth mix.
- As expected, the Royals have brought back a trio of recently non-tendered (non-arb-eligible) players. The club announced minor-league pact with former top prospect Bubba Starling, righty Jason Adam, and first bagger Samir Duenez. Starling, certainly, is the most notable member of this group given his status as a former fifth overall draft pick. He’s now 26 years of age and still trying t work things out in the upper minors. The Royals are obviously still pleased with his effort level and think there may be something more in the tank. At a minimum, the organization would surely like to see what he can do if he’s at full health for a complete season.
Yankees Pay CC Sabathia $500K Bonus For 2018 Season
It largely goes without saying that the Yankees enjoy a warm relationship with veteran lefty CC Sabathia, but the point was driven home again today. As Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reports, the club recently paid Sabathia a $500K bonus for his work in 2018 that was not technically required by his contract.
You may recall that Sabathia was tossed from a late-September start — his final of the season — for plunking an opponent in retaliation. When he did so, Sabathia cost himself a clear shot at reaching his 155th inning on the season and thereby triggering a $500K bonus. He also endeared himself yet further to his teammates and got his money’s worth on the way off the mound.
It turns out that the Yanks quietly slipped Sabathia a check for the $500K even though the incentive provision was not actually triggered. That’s but a fraction of the monstrous sum the organization has paid the lefty over the years. It seems that pushes him past the $216MM mark over ten years in the Bronx, with another $8MM still to come for his 2019 efforts after the sides lined up on their fourth separate contractual arrangement.
Still, it’s a nice chunk of change. Sabathia’s rep says that the southpaw “was very appreciative.” Yankees GM Brian Cashman indicated that “it was something that we did very private and weren’t looking to publicize.” As Blum notes, the existence of the payment was only sussed out because of the team’s luxury tax filings.
Mets Sign Rajai Davis
The Mets announced today that they have inked a minor-league deal with veteran outfielder Rajai Davis. He’ll receive an invitation to Spring Training.
The 38-year-old Davis has played in the big leagues for each of the past 13 seasons. He’s known best for his quality glovework and game-changing speed, with 415 career stolen bases in just over fourteen-hundred total games.
Given those other carrying skills, Davis has carried a respectable-enough .262/.311/.379 slash for his career, which translates to an 86 wRC+. Unfortunately, he has dipped beneath that average in each of the past three seasons. In 2018, Davis managed only a .224/.278/.281 batting line.
With his work at the plate lagging, Davis received only 216 plate appearances last year — his lowest tally since he got his first, brief taste of the bigs in 2006. Still, the Indians found a way to get him into 101 games, which speaks to the other ways he can still contribute.
No doubt Davis had interest from other organizations, many of which surely would have seen him as among the more appealing depth options available without the commitment of a 40-man roster spot. That the Mets landed him seemingly indicates that the veteran sees a real chance to earn MLB time in New York if he shows well in camp. Of course, the expectation remains that other moves will still impact the Mets’ outfield picture.
Free Agent Rumors: Harrison, Kimbrel, Norris, Angels
The Nationals have had a pair of “brief” meetings with Josh Harrison‘s representatives at MSM Sports, tweets Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post. While there’s mutual interest, Dougherty reports that Harrison’s camp is also looking “closely” at other landing spots as well. Whether that’s due to what the Nats would be willing to offer, how they’d plan to use Harrison or another factor remains to be seen. The Nats have some uncertainty at second base, where Wilmer Difo and Howie Kendrick (who missed most of 2018 due to a ruptured Achilles) currently sit atop the depth chart. Top prospect Carter Kieboom may not be far from the big leagues, but adding a stable short-term option still makes plenty of sense for Washington. The Nats have been connected to Harrison several times over the past couple of weeks, but the versatile 31-year-old surely has other teams interested in his services. He’s been tied to the Yankees and Reds at various points this winter.
A few more notes on the free-agent market…
- Craig Kimbrel‘s lofty asking price — a reported six years and $100MM — and the lack of big-market clubs currently willing to spend on a late-inning reliever could present the right-hander with a difficult market this winter, Buster Olney of ESPN.com writes. Olney likens the situation to last year’s tepid market for J.D. Martinez — a similarly elite player for his position (designated hitter) who lingered on the open market until landing in Boston in late February — a match that long seemed inevitable. The Red Sox may be the best bet for Kimbrel, too, Olney opines, especially given the plethora of more affordable options for smaller and mid-market clubs to pursue even if they do want to bolster the back end of their bullpens.
- The Marlins are one of several teams that has reached out to free-agent right-hander Bud Norris, tweets Craig Mish of SiriusXM. Miami has thinned out its bullpen this offseason by trading Kyle Barraclough (to Washington), and there’s a definitive lack of experienced arms at the back end of the organization’s bullpen. At present, Drew Steckenrider is the presumptive favorite to close games for skipper Don Mattingly, although the right-hander struggled down the stretch in 2019. Even as the Marlins rebuild the organization, there’s still an obvious opportunity to add some low-cost bullpen options to help take the stress off younger arms and, potentially, to be traded for further minor league talent down the line. The 33-year-old Norris has a 3.91 ERA with 10.6 K/9, 3.6 BB/9 and 47 saves over the past two seasons — the most recent of which was spent with the Cardinals.
- The Angels‘ best offer to J.A. Happ topped out at two years and a total of $28MM, reports Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register (via Twitter). That checks in $6MM shy of the two-year total that Happ received to return to the Yankees, so it’s hardly surprising that Happ opted for the familiarity of an organization he already knew and a greater guarantee. Both offers contained vesting options, Fletcher notes. With Happ, Patrick Corbin, Nathan Eovaldi, Charlie Morton and Lance Lynn all off the board, the Halos have begun to see some of their free-agent options dwindle. Dallas Keuchel and Yusei Kikuchi are the top two starters from MLBTR’s Top 50 free agent list remaining, though as can be seen in our Free Agent Tracker, there are plenty of available options beyond that pairing. And, of course, the trade market will offer various options for the Angels, whose rejuvenated farm system should appeal to many clubs with pitching to spare.
Pirates Interested In Troy Tulowitzki
The Pirates are among the teams with interest in free-agent infielder Troy Tulowitzki, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription required). Tulowitzki was released by the Blue Jays earlier this month.
Pittsburgh skipper Clint Hurdle is quite familiar with Tulo from the pair’s days with the Rockies, when Tulowitzki was among the game’s brightest young stars. At 34 years of age and coming off a season in which he did not play after undergoing surgery to remove bone spurs in both feet, Tulowitzki is a far cry from his days as an MVP candidate. However, he’d cost the Pirates (or any signing team) only the league minimum, as the Blue Jays are on the hook for the remainder of his salary in 2019-20. Presumably, there are at least a handful of clubs intrigued to see how Tulo would hold up now that he’s a ways removed from surgery and not playing his home games on the artificial turf at Toronto’s Rogers Centre.
That said, it’s been quite some time since Tulowitzki was viewed as an above-average regular at the big league level. He hit just .249/.300/.378 through 266 plate appearances with the Blue Jays back in 2017 — his last taste of Major League work. Tulo made All-Star teams in both 2015 and 2016, though his overall offensive output in both of those seasons was roughly equivalent to a league-average hitter when weighting his production for the hitter-friendly environments he called home in Colorado and Toronto. Paired with his then-strong defensive contributions, that still made him quite a valuable asset, but you’d have to go all the way back to the 2014 season for the last time that Tulowitzki turned in a star-caliber performance.
The Pirates, of course, wouldn’t be expecting an All-Star showing from Tulowitzki, but rather the opportunity to buy low on a player who not long ago was viewed as a premier big league talent. If Tulowitzki can function even as an average regular in the infield, that’d be a steal at a league-minimum rate. And the Pirates, it should be noted, are facing uncertainty in the infield.
[Related: Pittsburgh Pirates depth chart]
Adam Frazier impressed last year in semi-regular work at second base, but shortstop is far less settled with Kevin Newman and Erik Gonzalez among the current options. Third base doesn’t offer much more stability, with Jung Ho Kang looking to re-establish himself following a DUI arrest in his native South Korea that cost him more than a season of action in the Majors. Meanwhile, Colin Moran, acquired in last winter’s Gerrit Cole swap, didn’t exactly take the third base job and run with it.
While Tulo wouldn’t offer any more certainty than most of those options in the wake of a lost season, his agent has indicated his client’s willingness to play either second base or third base in 2019 (link via the San Francisco Chronicle’s Susan Slusser), so he’d be an interesting depth option for the Pittsburgh organization to add at a minimal cost.
Pirates Sign Jordan Lyles
The Pirates have added some depth to their rotation mix, announcing on Monday that they’ve signed right-hander Jordan Lyles to a one-year contract. The Ballengee Group client will reportedly receive a guaranteed $2.05MM salary.
“We are pleased to add Jordan Lyles to our Major League pitching staff,” said GM Neal Huntington in a statement accompanying the announcement. “Jordan has always had a quality pitch arsenal, and given his success after adjusting how he used his pitches during the 2018 season, he will have a legitimate opportunity to earn a spot in our rotation in 2019. We look forward to helping Jordan continue to bridge the gap between potential and performance.”
This move seems to represent a bid to backfill the Bucs’ pitching depth after trading Ivan Nova to the White Sox last week. Lyles likely won’t be promised a rotation spot in Pittsburgh, but he could compete for one in camp and will at least function as a long relief or swingman option. With Huntington saying that the organization is dabbling with the idea of an opener, Lyles could be a particularly interesting fit for the roster.
Lyles turned in a somewhat interesting 2018 season, though his broader track record isn’t all that impressive. The 28-year-old posted a personal-high 10.3% swinging-strike rate this past season, with a modified pitch mix seemingly help to boost that aspect of his game. He won’t turn 29 until next October, so if Lyles turns in a solid season in Pittsburgh, he could elevate his status in advance of a return trip through free agency next winter at a still-desirable age.
That’s not to say the results were universally positive; Lyles didn’t quite turn the corner in an eight-game run as a starter with the Padres. But he was rather effective in a relief role, with a 3.32 ERA over 40 2/3 total innings in 28 appearances. Some kind of multi-inning role other than that of a traditional starter could maximize Lyles’s skill set. At present, the Pittsburgh rotation likely consists of Chris Archer, Jameson Taillon, Trevor Williams, Joe Musgrove and Nick Kingham, though there are alternatives on hand for those final two spots. In addition to Lyles, the Pirates got their first look at Clay Holmes in 2018, and the organization has one of the game’s most promising pitching prospects in the form of right-hander Mitch Keller.
Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported that the two sides were close to a deal (via Twitter), and Fancred’s Jon Heyman reported the agreement and terms (Twitter links).
Yankees Designate Parker Bridwell For Assignment
The Yankees announced Monday that they’ve designated right-hander Parker Bridwell for assignment in order to clear a spot on the roster for lefty J.A. Happ, whose two-year contract to return to the Bronx is now official. They’ll have a week to trade Bridwell, run him through outright waivers or release him.
Bridwell, 27, is only a season removed from 121 innings of 3.64 ERA ball with the 2017 Angels, though his secondary metrics never made that output appear sustainable. Bridwell averaged just 5.4 strikeouts per nine innings pitched that season and stranded nearly 80 percent of the runners allowed — neither of which are conducive to long-term success. If he clears waivers, he can remain in the Yankees organization, though his 2017 success may pique the interest of a club in need of rotation depth. Of course, Bridwell is also out of minor league options, meaning any team that acquires him — be it via trade or waiver claim — would need to carry him on the 40-man roster and open the season with Bridwell on the 25-man roster or else once again expose him to outright waivers.
The 2018 season was an ugly one for Bridwell, as he was limited to just 6 2/3 innings at the Major League level and clobbered for 13 runs on 14 hits — including five home runs. His Triple-A work wasn’t much better, as injuries limited him to 28 runs and he was barely able to keep his ERA south of 9.00 in that time. New York claimed him off waivers back on Nov. 25.
Yankees Sign J.A. Happ
Dec. 17: The Yankees have formally announced Happ’s two-year contract and a vesting option for the 2021 season.
Dec. 12: The Yankees have reportedly agreed to a two-year, $34MM deal to bring free agent southpaw J.A. Happ back to the Bronx. The contract is pending a physical; Happ is represented by Rogers Sports Management.
When completed, the contract is expected to include an option year valued at $17MM. It would vest if Happ reaches 165 innings and/or 27 starts in the 2020 campaign.
Happ has been one of the offseason’s most sought-after arms, with as many as 10 teams said to have some level of interest in the 36-year-old. Happ was known to have been weighing several two-year offers and was reportedly willing to sign with the first team that gave him a third guaranteed year.
It seems, though, that he’ll fall shy of that target — meaning he’ll also land short of the three-year, $48MM that MLBTR predicted. As we noted in that post, however, it was never fully clear whether Happ would be able to secure a promised salary through his age-38 campaign.
At the end of the day, the Yankees will pay a bit of a premium on an annual basis and surrender some control over that third year (through the vesting clause) in order to secure the services of the southpaw. Happ was for some time seen as more of a depth piece, but he has rather quietly emerged as a steady force in recent seasons.
Happ, you may recall, raised his profile greatly with a surprising late-2015 run with the Pirates. That landed him the three-year deal with the Blue Jays that he just completed. Since he last put pen to paper, Happ has pitched to a 3.44 ERA with 8.7 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 over 518 frames.
After his contract was shipped to the division-rival Yankees in the middle of the 2018 campaign, Happ obviously impressed his new employer. He turned in 63 2/3 innings of 2.69 ERA ball over 11 starts, though he was later knocked around in his lone postseason appearance. That shouldn’t (and obviously didn’t) give the Yanks pause, particularly since Happ had previously generally performed well in the playoffs.
For the Yankees, Happ becomes the third lefty rotation piece added this winter, joining James Paxton and CC Sabathia. The club tried for a fourth, Patrick Corbin, but watched him head elsewhere after deciding not to extend to bigger dollars and years than the organization felt comfortable with. In this case, the willingness to stick to his guns worked to the benefit of GM Brian Cashman, who did not have to full guarantee a third season to land a pitcher he obviously felt comfortable with.
The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter link) reported a deal was close, with Andy Martino of SNY.tv (Twitter link) reporting it was completed. Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter) and MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (in a tweet) had details on the deal structure, with Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports (via Twitter) and Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter links) covering the salary terms.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.