Rockies Sign Wade Davis
The Rockies have officially agreed to a contract with free-agent closer Wade Davis, as Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports first reprted. Davis, a client of Jet Sports Management, receives a three-year, $52MM contract that includes a vesting player option for a fourth season which could take the deal’s value to $66MM over four years. That contract’s $17.33MM annual value is a record among relievers, Passan notes.
The fourth-year option, worth $15MM, will vest as a player option for the 2021 season if Davis finishes 30 games in 2020. If it does not vest, it’ll instead be a mutual option with a $1MM buyout, per Passan. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports (via Twitter) that Davis will earn $16MM in 2018, $18MM in 2019 and $17MM in 2020. FanRag’s Jon Heyman tweets that Davis’s deal includes a $1MM assignment bonus if he is traded, adding that he’ll also pick up full no-trade rights after being traded once.
The addition of Davis seems likely to end the Rockies’ pursuit of a reunion with 2017 closer Greg Holland, who declined a $15MM player option and rejected a $17.4MM qualifying offer following the season. Davis, too, rejected a qualifying offer, meaning he’ll cost the Rockies a pick in the 2018 draft.
As a team that benefited from revenue sharing and did not exceed the luxury tax in 2017, the Rockies will forfeit their third-highest selection in next year’s draft. For the Rockies, who have a selection in Competitive Balance Round A, their third-highest pick will be their second-round selection in 2018. The Cubs, meanwhile, will secure a compensatory pick after Competitive Balance Round B. (While Davis’ contract is north of $50MM, the Cubs are a revenue sharing payor, thus disqualifying them for compensation after the first round of the draft.)
[Related: Updated Colorado Rockies depth chart and Rockies payroll outlook]
Colorado has clearly identified the bullpen as an area of focus this offseason, as they’ve now dished out more than $100MM worth of guarantees in the form of Davis’ $52MM and the respective three-year, $27MM deals given to lefty Jake McGee and right-hander Bryan Shaw. That continues the aggressive bullpen spending the team began last winter when signing Mike Dunn and Holland in free agency.
Davis, of course, will capably step into the void left by Holland’s departure and could very well serve as an upgrade. In 58 2/3 innings with the Cubs last year, Davis pitched to a 2.30 ERA with 12.1 K/9, 4.3 BB/9 and a 40.5 percent ground-ball rate while collecting 32 saves. Those excellent run-prevention numbers continued an impressive run of dominance for Davis, who owns a 1.45 ERA in 241 1/3 innings since converting to a reliever on a full-time basis in 2014.
The 2017 season wasn’t without red flags, though. Davis’ 40.5 percent grounder rate marked a significant drop-off from the 48.5 percent clip he posted in 2016, and his 94.3 mph average fastball velocity was his lowest since moving to the bullpen. That velocity drop is all the more troubling when juxtaposed with a 2016 season in which Davis landed on the disabled list with a forearm strain.
There’s risk in any long-term deal for a reliever, though, and the Rockies’ aggressive spending in this market has demonstrated less aversion to those perils than most clubs throughout the league. For a Colorado team that features a very young and largely inexperienced rotation, the stockpiling of quality relief arms will help manager Bud Black to lessen the workload of his young arms by leaning more heavily on a group of experienced late-inning options.
Of course, it’s worth bearing in mind that the three additions won’t necessarily enhance the Rockies’ 2018 unit beyond the one it possessed in the season prior. By the end of the season, the relief corps included Holland, McGee, and midseason trade acquisition Pat Neshek. At a minimum, though, the organization can likely now anticipate that it’ll enter the coming season with a relief group that’s as good or better than its productive ’17 outfit.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
MLBTR Chat Transcript: Davis, Closers, Cards, Rockies
Click here to read a transcript of today’s chat with host Jeff Todd.
Brewers Reportedly In Talks With Boone Logan
The Brewers and free-agent lefty Boone Logan are engaged in contract discussions, writes MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy. It seems likely the sides will formalize an agreement, though it won’t be finalized until after the new year. Chuck Miketinac of FOX Sports San Antonio tweeted recently that a deal was in place.
Milwaukee was light on left-handed bullpen help for much of the 2017 season. Indeed, at multiple points throughout the year, the club didn’t have a lefty in its bullpen at all. Adding Logan would give the club an experienced southpaw to help fill that void, though he is coming off an injury-shortened season with the Indians.
The 33-year-old Logan hit the disabled list with a strained lat muscle in late July, and that injury ultimately proved to be season-ending in nature. He wound up tossing just 21 innings in 38 appearances as a lefty specialist in Cleveland, working to a 4.71 ERA. That said, Logan racked up a dozen strikeouts per nine against 3.9 walks per nine along with a fifty percent grounder rate.
All told, Logan seems to represent rather an appealing buy-low target. He still delivered his four and two-seam heaters at around 94 mph and posted a career-high 18.5% swinging-strike rate in 2017. Some common indicators of poor fortune are also present, as opposing hitters posted a lofty .353 batting average on balls in play and Logan stranded only 62.5% of baserunners.
So long as he can stay healthy, Logan could deliver good value on a limited commitment. He has not always produced exciting earned-run results, but has a long history of lofty whiff rates and of being hard on opposing lefties. Of course, we don’t yet know the prospective contract terms — or whether a deal will be consummate.
Minor MLB Transactions: 12/29/17
We’ll keep track of the game’s minor transactions for the day here…
- Right-hander Jay Jackson has re-signed with the Hiroshima Carp of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, the team announced (English link via the Japan Times). He’ll take home $1.5MM for the 2018 season. Jackson, 30, had reportedly garnered interest from multiple MLB clubs, though his return to the Carp on a one-year deal suggests that any offers he may have received didn’t match the strength of a $1.5MM guarantee. The former Cubs farmhand and top 100 prospect (per Baseball America) won’t turn 31 until next offseason, though, so he could further drum up MLB interest with another strong performance in NPB. Thus far, in two seasons with the Carp, Jackson has logged 130 1/3 innings of relief with a pristine 1.86 ERA, 9.9 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9. Jackson briefly appeared in the Majors with the 2015 Padres and 4.89 ERA in nearly 600 Triple-A innings, though the bulk of those came as a starter.
Quick Hits: Greinke, Cron, Hughes, Allen, Miller
“It’s possible this is the Diamondbacks’ last, best chance to get real value for [Zack] Greinke,” Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic writes in a piece detailing the team’s difficult position this winter. With Greinke still owed $138.5MM through 2021 and taking up an inordinately large piece of Arizona’s payroll, the D’Backs are hard-pressed to to augment a roster that made a surprise run to the NLDS last year. Dealing Greinke may be the better long-term move, though it would hurt the team’s chances of capitalizing on its sudden contender status. Greinke had a down year in 2016 and just turned 34 in October, so it isn’t quite clear if his big 2017 season represented a return to form or perhaps a last hurrah before he begins to decline. The Yankees, Rangers, and Phillies have all checked in on Greinke this winter, so there’s certainly interest if Greinke was made available, though GM Mike Hazen will have a tough needle to thread in finding an acceptable trade match in both salary coverage and MLB-ready talent coming back to Arizona.
Here’s more from around baseball…
- C.J. Cron has been the subject of trade speculation, though if the Angels do try to deal the first baseman, MLB.com’s Maria Guardado doesn’t expect it to happen prior to Spring Training. Los Angeles will want to see if Albert Pujols is a viable option to regularly play first base, as the plan is for Pujols to spend time in the field so Shohei Ohtani can get some DH at-bats. Pujols’ history of foot problems, however, means that Cron (and Luis Valbuena) could be necessary depth pieces for the Halos.
- While the Reds were looking for one-year deals for relievers, they were comfortable enough with Jared Hughes‘ track record to sign the righty to a two-year deal, general manager Dick Williams tells Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Williams feels Hughes adds some needed veteran experience to a Reds bullpen that struggled badly in 2017, and the GM didn’t close the door on his team acquiring another veteran reliever before the winter is over.
- The Indians will face a tall order in trying to extend Cody Allen or Andrew Miller before either reliever hits free agency next winter, MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian writes as part of a reader mailbag. Allen is entering his final year of arbitration eligibility, while Miller is finishing up the four-year, $36MM deal he originally signed with the Yankees in December 2014. Given the large contracts that relievers have been landing this offseason, a smaller-payroll team like Cleveland doesn’t seem like a candidate to re-sign either pitcher, nor to spend the big money it would take to get Allen or Miller to forego the open market and ink an extension.
Free Agent Rumblings: Bautista, Bruce, Walker, Mets, Alcides, Hochevar, Utley
The Rays have been linked to Jose Bautista both last winter and even earlier this offseason, though MLB.com’s Bill Chastain hasn’t heard about any interest from the team’s end. Bautista makes some sense as a right-handed platoon partner with lefty-swingers Brad Miller and Corey Dickerson at first base or DH, and Bautista also lives in the Tampa area. He would be a low-cost signing for the Rays in the wake of his dreadful 2017 season, though that same lackluster performance could be the reason the Rays are apparently looking elsewhere rather than hope Bautista can bounce back at age 37. On the other hand, Chastain notes that the Rays have made other veteran additions in the past without any advance warning, so it’s probably too early to definitively rule out a signing.
Here are some more items about veteran names still on the market…
- Jay Bruce or Neil Walker are “highly unlikely” to sign with the Mets, Newsday’s Marc Carig said in an appearance on The Orange & Blue Thing show (Facebook link, Carig joins around the 21:00 mark). The possibility can’t be entirely ruled out, however, given the nature of this “weird offseason” that has seen so many top free agents remain available as we approach the start of January. Carig’s segment is well worth a full listen, as he also discusses such topics as the communication issues that has plagued the Mets’ organization and (along those same lines) his recent commentary criticizing team ownership for its lack of transparency.
- There isn’t much action in Alcides Escobar‘s market, leading MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan to write that the Royals could consider re-signing the shortstop as veteran depth behind Raul Mondesi. The Padres were the only team known to be interested in Escobar this offseason, and they’re now seemingly out of the shortstop market after acquiring Freddy Galvis. It would’ve been a tall order for Escobar to find a starting gig anywhere given his lack of offensive production, and if he did go anywhere as a backup, a familiar locale like Kansas City makes as much sense as any other destination.
- Also from Flanagan’s mailbag piece, the Royals have some uncertainty whether or not Luke Hochevar will continue his career. Hochevar missed all of 2017 after recovering from thoracic outlet syndrome surgery, and he also missed the entire 2014 season due to Tommy John surgery. Royals GM Dayton Moore said during the Winter Meetings that he hadn’t recently spoken to Hochevar about a possible reunion, though Flanagan wrote that the Royals would have interest in bringing him back. Hochevar just turned 34 last September and posted excellent numbers as a reliever in his last three active seasons.
- There is very little chance of Chase Utley returning to the Phillies, MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki writes. Whether Utley returns for a 16th MLB season or retires, Zolecki figures Utley will remain on the west coast, either staying at home or playing for the Dodgers. Zolecki also refutes a report that Utley was a candidate to become the Phillies’ bench coach, noting that Utley wasn’t even under consideration for the job before the team eventually hired Rob Thomson.
Marlins Open To Trade Talks About Christian Yelich, J.T. Realmuto
7:24pm: The Nationals asked about Realmuto during the Winter Meetings but were told that the Marlins weren’t planning to deal him, MLB.com’s Jamal Collier reports. Matt Wieters’ struggles in 2017 make Washington a natural candidate to look for a catching upgrade, though Collier notes that it isn’t GM Mike Rizzo’s style to make a huge trade offer for Realmuto that the Marlins couldn’t refuse.
5:34pm: The Marlins are in “active trade discussions” about outfielder Christian Yelich and catcher J.T. Realmuto, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports (Twitter link). No trade is imminent, Morosi notes, and the exact nature of Miami’s willingness to deal either of its controllable young stars isn’t yet determined.
According to Clark Spencer and Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald, three sources give slightly different descriptions of the talks. One source says the Marlins are “more seriously considering offers” than in the past, and are particularly listening on Yelich. Another source says that the Marlins are listening to offers but “not aggressively shopping” either player, while the third source says rival teams have been informed by Miami that Yelich and Realmuto “are available for the right price.”
It’s worth noting that none of these three takes on the situation really contradict each other, and ultimately, the Marlins could simply be doing their due diligence in exploring what they could get for two very valuable trade chips. There have been conflicting reports on whether the Marlins were really looking to move Yelich (or Realmuto), or if the team had completed much of its heavy lifting in terms of payroll clearance in previous trades of Giancarlo Stanton, Dee Gordon, and (to a lesser extent) Marcell Ozuna.
Both Yelich and Realmuto have been disappointed with this latest Miami rebuild, with Realmuto going so far as to reportedly ask for a trade. Since both players are under team control (Yelich via an extension, Realmuto via arbitration) for several more years, they don’t have any real leverage to make a deal happen, though obviously the Marlins could see value in moving players that no longer want to be there, especially when those two players could bring back multiple young assets in return.
As Jackson and Spencer note in their piece, the Marlins could try to capitalize on Yelich and Realmuto’s trade value by attaching one of their remaining big contracts (i.e. Martin Prado, Brad Ziegler, Junichi Tazawa) to either of those players in a trade. Multiple teams have been linked to Yelich for months now, while Realmuto would certainly generate almost as much interest, even from teams that may have a solid catcher in place but could be swayed by the idea of landing a younger option.
AL West Notes: Maxwell, Choo, Rangers, Astros
Here’s the latest from around the AL West…
- Bruce Maxwell‘s trial date (on charges of aggravated assault with a deadly weapon, and disorderly conduct) has been scheduled for April 10, NBCSports.com Bay Area’s Joe Stiglich reports. This means that Maxwell would miss part of the Athletics‘ season, though “there remains a strong possibility” that a trial is avoided by a plea deal, according to Stiglich. Discussion of a settlement conference took place today during Maxwell’s first pretrial conference today, as per a court spokesperson.
- Shin-Soo Choo is “not really worried about” being mentioned in trade speculation, the Rangers outfielder tells Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. Choo’s name was reportedly included as part of the Rangers’ talks with the Diamondbacks about a possible Zack Greinke swap, as Texas was looking to move Choo’s contract to offset some of the salary the club would be taking on by acquiring Greinke. For Choo, such speculation is “part of baseball. That’s part of the deal. Nobody is happy to hear them in trade rumors….I have a great feeling for the Rangers, but at the same time I understand the team’s situation.” Choo has been hampered by injuries during his four years in Texas and is owed $62MM over the next three seasons, though Wilson feels that the Rangers should keep Choo, arguing that the outfielder has been effective when healthy and provides an OBP boost that the Rangers lineup otherwise lacks.
- The Rangers probably lack the prospect depth to trade for a top-tier starting pitcher, MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan writes in his latest mailbag piece, in part because the club has already dealt so many other top minor leaguers in trades for Cole Hamels, Carlos Beltran, Jonathan Lucroy, and other established stars in recent years. Moving what few blue chip prospects the team has left for a pitcher like Chris Archer or Michael Fulmer doesn’t seem likely at this point. Texas has beefed up its rotation with the additions of Matt Moore, Doug Fister, and Mike Minor this winter, filling multiple holes in its rotation rather than making a big splash for an ace.
- The signings of Joe Smith and Hector Rondon may end up being the Astros‘ biggest moves of the offseason, though MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart feels the team could still add another starter or a left field candidate. It isn’t out of the question that Houston makes a big play for Archer or the Marlins’ Christian Yelich, especially if the team could do so without moving either of Kyle Tucker or Forrest Whitley, McTaggart feels.
Free Agent Profile: Lance Lynn
Lance Lynn, a right-handed starting pitcher who turns 31 in May, has spent his entire career with the Cardinals since being drafted in 2008. He’s one of the four best starting pitchers on the free agent market, and he’ll continue seeking a multiyear deal in the new year.
Pros/Strengths
Though Lynn missed all of 2016 due to Tommy John surgery, he otherwise carries a reputation of durability. In each of the pitcher’s other five seasons, he’s made at least 29 starts. Lynn was one of only 12 pitchers to make 33 regular season starts in 2017, a claim only Ricky Nolasco can make among fellow free agents.
Lynn has delivered results throughout his big league career. He’s never posted an ERA above 4.00 in a season, and carries a 3.38 career mark that he basically matched this year. While Lynn lacks supporting stats to back up this year’s 3.43 ERA, consider this from Eno Sarris of FanGraphs:
“But not only is there an existing fastball-mixing skill that’s not currently captured by projections in his current arsenal, there’s potential for an emerging new pitch [a changeup] in there as well. Lynn’s an intriguing watch, and signing, for a guy who mostly throws fastballs.”
Some teams may look at Lynn as a pitcher with a track record of success and durability, plus some upside given the right tweaks.
Cons/Weaknesses
In attempting to make a post-Tommy John assessment of Lynn’s abilities, we only have his 186 1/3 innings this year. He posted career-worsts in three key categories: strikeout rate, walk rate, and home run rate. His walk rate was second-worst among all qualified starters. Using SIERA, it was a blend of skills that suggested a 4.85 ERA, much worse than his actual 3.43 mark. Lynn benefited from a .244 batting average on balls in play, which is not considered a repeatable mark. To his benefit in the future, Lynn’s 14.2% home run per flyball rate probably won’t stay that high. Still, it just wasn’t an intriguing mix of skills this year. A team signing Lynn has to hope or expect to bring back his prior abilities. His second half, with even worse strikeout and walk rates, did not qualify as progress.
While Lynn should be able to take the ball every fifth day, he’s not likely to save a team’s bullpen. Of 58 starting pitchers who threw at least 100 innings, Lynn ranked 42nd with an average of 5.64 innings per start.
Lynn rejected a qualifying offer from the Cardinals in November, so he’ll come with a draft pick cost attached.
Background
Lynn was drafted 39th overall by the Cardinals in 2008 out of the University of Mississippi. He was a supplemental pick for the loss of free agent reliever Troy Percival, who had inked an $8MM deal with the Rays. Among those born in Indiana with at least 900 career innings pitched, Lynn ranks sixth with a .605 career winning percentage, behind Art Nehf.
Market
The Rangers, Brewers, and Orioles have been linked to Lynn to some degree in reports this offseason. Other theoretical fits could include the Angels, Blue Jays, Mariners, Cubs, Phillies, and Mets. There seems to be little momentum for a return to the Cardinals. Lynn must contend with fellow free agent Alex Cobb, who is in a similar tier. Plus, if the price somehow drops far enough on Jake Arrieta or Yu Darvish, those pitchers could interfere with Lynn’s market. In fact, they may be currently holding it up.
Expected Contract
Back in October, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch wrote that Lynn would pursue a deal like the five-year, $110MM pact signed by Jordan Zimmermann signed two years ago. We went with a four-year, $56MM projection, which I’ll upgrade to four years and $60MM. Normally at this point in the offseason, we’d call for reduced contracts, but it’s unclear whether that will happen given the sheer volume of unsigned quality free agents.
East Notes: Machado, Adonis Garcia, Marlins, Braves
The Orioles “continue to hear from multiple teams interested in trading for Manny Machado,” tweets Jon Morosi of MLB Network, who doesn’t believe the club has a firm deadline on trade talks for their star infielder. As Dan Connolly of BaltimoreBaseball.com wrote six days ago, “These incremental updates are white noise.” Unfortunately, that’s all we’ve got right now! Connolly’s best guess at that time: Machado will be traded before Opening Day. For now, we’ll continue to wait for the hot stove to light.
- Though Venezuelan reporter Marcos Grunfeld tweeted yesterday that Braves third baseman Adonis Garcia has signed a contract with the LG Twins to play in Korea, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution says “there have been discussions but [there is] no deal yet.” Garcia, 33 in April, was below replacement level in 52 games for the Braves this year.
- MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro tackles questions from Marlins fans in his latest inbox. As of now, Frisaro expects Christian Yelich and J.T. Realmuto to be back with the team next year, though the team is “open to listening on everyone.” He notes that the Orioles are “known to have interest” in 29-year-old righty Dan Straily, who is under team control through 2020. Clearly, there is no urgency for the Marlins to deal controllable, affordable players like these.
- Mark Bowman of MLB.com opens his Braves inbox, writing that “there is reason to believe Atlanta will use an abundance of funds to acquire another proven top-of-the-rotation starter via trade or free agency before the start of the 2019 season.” Looking at which starting pitchers will be available in free agency outside of possibly Clayton Kershaw, I agree with Bowman that a trade is the more likely route.