MLB Trade Rumors

Right-hander Nate Pearson has been working out of the Blue Jays’ bullpen in recent years but he tells Shi Davidi of Sportsnet that he would like another opportunity to prove himself in a starting role.

“I’ve definitely considered it, I’ve always wanted to be a starter,” the righty said. “Obviously the past couple of years before this haven’t really gone my way in terms of health, the guys we’ve signed, the roster spots and everything. So right now I’m coming out of the ’pen, trying to help our team win, whether it’s one inning, two innings. Looking into next year, if that’s an option, then I definitely want to explore it. That’s something I’ll have to sit down and talk with them about, see what the need is. But I’m definitely open to it, definitely would love to get another shot at it.”

Now 27, Pearson once seemed ticketed to be a mainstay of the Toronto rotation. He was the club’s first-round pick in 2017, getting selected 28th overall, and then became one of the top prospects in the league. As he impressed with his work in the minors, Baseball America had him on their top 100 list for five straight years starting in 2018, with Pearson getting as high as seventh overall in 2020.

But as Pearson himself referenced in the quote above, his health got in the way. He got up to the majors in the shortened 2020 season but missed time due to a flexor strain and only made five appearances, plus one more in the playoffs. In 2021, he battled a right groin strain on and off throughout the year and struggled when on the mound. He spent most of his time either on the IL or on optional assignment. He only tossed 15 big leagues innings and had a 16.9% walk rate in that time, then underwent hernia surgery in November of that year. In 2022, mononucleosis and a lat strain limited him to 15 1/3 minor league innings and none in the majors.

Since then, he’s been able to avoid the health woes while staying in a relief role. Last year, he tossed 42 2/3 innings in the bigs and another 20 2/3 at Triple-A. The major league work wasn’t especially impressive, as he had a 4.85 earned run average in that time, but a healthy season was a victory in itself after all that missed time.

He’s been healthy again in 2024 with his ERA not changing much, though his underlying numbers have shown significant improvement. In 36 1/3 innings on the season, he has a 4.71 ERA, only slightly better than last year’s. But his strikeout rate has jumped to 29% from last year’s 23.6% rate, while his walk rate has dropped from 9.9% to 8.6%. That hasn’t led to much improvement in run prevention, but luck could be a factor there. His home run to flyball rate has jumped from 11.7% to 15% and his batting average on balls in play from .261 to .344. ERA estimators like his 4.05 FIP and his 3.09 SIERA suggest he may be having a better season than a quick glance at the ERA would indicate.

Now that he’s stayed healthy for close to two years and is having some decent results, perhaps a move back to a starting role is on the table. It’s a transition that has some precedent this year, with Davidi and Pearson bringing up guys like Garrett Crochet of the White Sox, Reynaldo López of Atlanta and former Blue Jay Jordan Hicks with the Giants.

“It’s definitely encouraging to see Hicks being a reliever for years over in St. Louis and then transitioning, making the jump and being pretty successful so far this year,” said Pearson. “And then Crochet, watching him throw earlier this year, he wasn’t even a (full-time) starter in college, now he’s in the rotation, throwing pretty well. So definitely, I feel, (it) helps me out for other people to see that is possible to make that transition. I guess only time will tell. Finish out this year, hopefully put up some good numbers and then look forward to next year.”

The bullpen-to-rotation path has other success stories, such as Seth Lugo, Jeffrey Springs and more, but it doesn’t always work. MLBTR’s Steve Adams took a look at this year’s crop in May and again in July, with Crochet and López two of the best examples but with A.J. Puk on the other end of the spectrum. Puk was roughed up in four starts at the beginning of the year before landing on the injured list and the Marlins decided to move him back to the bullpen after the IL stint.

Time will tell whether Pearson can pull it off or not, but it’s understandable that he wants to try. A lot of pitchers are moved from starting roles to the bullpen not by choice but simply due to circumstances, either being squeezed out by other pitchers or their health situations, but they may still have a desire to go back. On top of the straightforward desire to succeed in a rotation role, there’s also a financial motivation as starters are generally paid more than relievers.

On top of Pearson’s aforementioned health issues, the Jays have generally had a solid rotation in recent years consisting of guys like José Berríos, Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, Yusei Kikuchi, Yariel Rodríguez, Alek Manoah, Ross Stripling and Hyun Jin Ryu.

The current rotation is composed of the first five names on that list, but change is likely coming. Kikuchi is an impending free agent and likely to be traded prior to the July 30 with the Jays sliding to the back of the American League Wild Card race and reportedly making rental players available. Bassitt and Gausman have been speculated as trade candidates as well, though Bassitt has another year on his contract and Gausman has two, so they’re less likely than Kikuchi to be moved.

Deadline trades could bring in other pitchers that change the equation but it’s possible there’s a rotation opening that Pearson could seize. As mentioned by Davidi, the club’s best pitching prospects Ricky Tiedemann and Adam Macko are currently dealing with injuries and uncertain futures. Manoah had Tommy John surgery in June and will be out until late 2025 at the earliest. That could increase the club’s willingness to giving Pearson a shot but it sounds like they’re already open to it. Davidi reports that the Jays have “bounced around” the idea of stretching out Pearson this year as those injuries have thinned out their depth.

“We’ve always considered Nate to be a potential starter in the major leagues, I don’t think that will change,” pitching coach Pete Walker says. “Will he get the opportunity again? I’m not sure, but I wouldn’t be surprised. Right now, he’s still finding his niche and learning how to pitch out of the bullpen, which a lot of guys do. You learn a lot about yourself, how to compete in tough situations, how to make adjustments, realizing where your pitches have to be and that location is really important, even if you throw hard. He’s learning a lot right now and I could see him being a starting pitcher again, for sure.” Walker also added that the “door is always open.”

It’s not too surprising that the Jays would be open to Pearson making the move. The bullpen has also been hit by injuries this year and would lose one more member if Pearson becomes a starter, but decent relievers are generally easier to find than reliable starters, so it’s a tradeoff most clubs would be happy with. That’s especially true given Pearson’s financial situation.

He came into this year with his service time count at three years and five days. He was briefly optioned in April, getting recalled four days later when Chad Green landed on the injured list. A baseball season is 187 days long but a player needs 172 days on the active roster or IL to get a full service year, meaning Pearson is on pace to get a full year and finish this season at 4.005 in spite of that brief option period.

He’s making just $800K this year, barely over the $740K league minimum, thanks to those injuries limiting his on-field contributions in recent seasons. He’s slated for two more arbitration raises before a trip to free agency in advance of his age-30 season, unless he’s optioned to the minors again for a notable period of time.

His role, health and level of success will impact how much he earns in arbitration and free agency. If he’s able to follow the Crochet path, the best-case scenario could see him in a rotation role for the next two years, increasing his earning power and his value to the Jays. If the club is able to return to contention in future seasons, he could be a key part of that. If not, he could become a sought-after trade chip like Crochet is now. That’s a lot of ifs, but it will be an interesting situation to monitor as the Jays play out this season and figure out their plans for 2025 and beyond.