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The Opener: NL West, Sale, Managers

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As a number of postseason races go down to the wire in the final week of the regular season, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. NL West race tightens further:

The Padres punched their ticket to the postseason last night on a game-ending triple play against the Dodgers. While both clubs are now assured of a spot in the postseason, they both still have something to play for throughout this final week of the season. The Padres now sit just two games back in the NL West with two games to go in the head-to-head series. San Diego also holds the tiebreaker after beating L.A. in the season series, meaning that if they can complete a sweep of their division rivals they’ll exit the series tied in the standings but holding onto the NL West crown entering their final series of the season in Arizona. Tonight’s game will feature a battle of front-of-the-rotation arms for each club, with right-hander Dylan Cease (3.42 ERA) taking the mound against Jack Flaherty (3.40 ERA in nine starts with L.A.) at 7:10pm local time.

2. Sale makes final push for Triple Crown:

After their win over the Mets yesterday, the Braves are lined up to send their two best pitchers to the mound for games two and three of a pivotal series. In tonight’s game (scheduled for 7:20pm local time), veteran lefty Chris Sale will not only be pitching for his team’s playoff hopes but also to put the finishing touches on a sensational campaign that appears likely to earn him the first Cy Young Award of his career.

That’s not the only plaudit within reach for Sale, however, as he currently leads the majors by measure of ERA, has won 18 games to put him in a tie for the MLB lead with Tigers southpaw Tarik Skubal, and has struck out 225 batters this year, second only to Skubal’s 228. A strong start against the Mets would not only greatly improve Atlanta’s chances of returning to the postseason but could also wind up being what pushes him over the edge as he pursues a pitching Triple Crown. If he manages to overtake Skubal by season’s end and finish first in the majors in all three categories, he’d be the first pitcher to win an MLB-wide Triple Crown in a 162-game season since Johan Santana pulled off the feat in 2006.

3. Offseason managerial market taking shape:

Over the weekend, the Reds became the latest team to part ways with their manager when they fired David Bell after six seasons at the helm of the club. They join the White Sox and Mariners in having fired their managers this year, while it’s been a poorly kept secret for months that Skip Schumaker is likely to depart the Marlins at the end of the season after the club voided their 2025 option on his services to allow him to explore other options this winter.

The Mariners seem unlikely to jump into the managerial market this winter, as Dan Wilson replaced Servais without the “interim” label being attached to his title. But the Sox, Reds, and Marlins could be joined by more clubs looking for new management if other teams part ways with their managers as the regular season comes to a close. The Rockies have reportedly not yet made a decision on Bud Black’s future with his contract set to expire after the season, while there have been reports of potential changes looming in St. Louis as well.

Farhan Zaidi Discusses Job Security, Snell, Middle Infield

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Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi met with reporters this evening. San Francisco pulled back to .500 with a win over the Diamondbacks tonight, but they missed the playoffs for the fifth time in Zaidi’s six-season tenure. That has led to speculation about his job security — which only ratcheted up in recent weeks amidst conflicting reports about ownership’s role in handling negotiations on Matt Chapman’s $151MM extension.

Zaidi declined to speculate about his job status but acknowledged that ownership is considering its options. “Anytime you have a disappointing season, it’s my job to evaluate everything in my purview, and it’s their job to evaluate everything in my purview, plus me,” the baseball ops leader said (link via Andrew Baggarly of the Athletic). “And so I think that process is happening, and I understand it.”

The Giants and Zaidi agreed to an extension last winter that coincided with Bob Melvin’s hiring as manager. Both the manager and baseball operations leader are on guaranteed contracts for next year with options for the 2026 season. That certainly doesn’t ensure job security — teams regularly dismiss coaches or executives before the end of their deals — but it kept Zaidi from operating on a lame duck basis in 2024.

Any doubt about his status with the organization can’t stop Zaidi from planning the team’s approach to the upcoming offseason. That starts with Blake Snell, who has pitched at a Cy Young level for the better part of four months. The star left-hander is set to decline his $30MM player option and take another shot at a long-term contract.

Zaidi admitted the Giants expect Snell to opt out. He said the Giants will remain in the market but conceded they’ll face stiff competition. “I think it’s going to be a priority for everybody. He’s been the best pitcher in baseball the second half of the season,” Zaidi said of Snell’s market (relayed by Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle). “And I think he’s going into free agency the same way he did last offseason. He wants to keep an open mind. We’re encouraged about what he said about how much he likes being here, how much he likes San Francisco and playing for Bob. We’ll be pretty high on his list, but we’re respecting the fact that he’s going to want to play out free agency.”

Snell turns 32 in December. He’ll probably take aim at a six-plus year deal that approaches $200MM. That kind of investment in starting pitching would be out of character for Zaidi. As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, the Giants haven’t gone beyond the $90MM Logan Webb extension for a starting pitcher. The $62MM guarantee they awarded Snell late last winter is their biggest free agent rotation investment.

The Giants have been much more comfortable with short-term upside plays for starting pitchers who want to retest the market than they are with lengthy commitments. That operating procedure made them a strong fit when Snell’s market didn’t materialize the way he’d envisioned last winter, but it’ll present a challenge to keeping him around. San Francisco was content to let Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodón walk after striking gold on short-term plays for both pitchers.

If Snell were to depart, Webb would retake his spot as the unquestioned staff ace. He’ll be followed in the rotation by Kyle Harrison and Robbie Ray (who is unlikely to opt out of the $50MM remaining on his contract). The Giants could try to stretch Jordan Hicks back out as a starter while giving opportunities to younger arms like Hayden Birdsong, Landen Roupp and Keaton Winn. They’d surely add to that group in some capacity after dealing with a number of rotation injuries this season.

Zaidi also addressed the position player mix, specifically saying the Giants will “definitely be in the middle-infield market” (via Rubin). Tyler Fitzgerald has had a fantastic rookie season since taking over at shortstop. The Louisville product connected on his 15th homer tonight and is up to a .287/.338/.510 batting line through 325 plate appearances. His 31.1% strikeout rate is cause for some concern, but Fitzgerald’s power and defensive flexibility have earned him a role somewhere on the diamond.

That could come on the other side of the second base bag. The Giants waived Thairo Estrada last month after he hit .217/.247/.343 in 96 games. Estrada will be a minor league free agent at season’s end. Zaidi lauded Estrada’s professionalism and expressed some confidence that the infielder could rebound in another setting, but he indicated the Giants will go in a different direction.

Moving Fitzgerald to second base while bringing in an established shortstop is an option. Willy Adames and Ha-Seong Kim are the potential regulars in the free agent class. Zaidi expressed a desire to add “an established, plus defender in the middle infield” via free agency or trade. Adames and Kim would each fit the bill (although the former has had an uncharacteristic spike in errors this season). Both players are going to decline qualifying offers from their current teams and would require draft pick forfeiture. Adames might command a guarantee north of $150MM, while Kim’s deal could land in the $75-100MM range.

Bo Bichette has been the top speculative shortstop trade target. The Blue Jays didn’t seem inclined to move him even before he went on the injured list just before the deadline. Unless the Toronto front office reverses course, they probably won’t sell low during the winter.

There aren’t a ton of obvious middle infield trade candidates. The Reds may listen on Jonathan India, but he’s not the caliber of defender to which Zaidi alluded. That’s also the case with Tampa Bay second baseman Brandon Lowe. The Pirates would probably listen on Isiah Kiner-Falefa, whose offensive production has cratered since a deadline trade with Toronto. There’s a chance the Mariners could move on from J.P. Crawford as they try to reshape their offense.

A free agent pursuit of Adames or Kim, though, would be more straightforward. That’d allow the Giants to use Casey Schmitt in a utility capacity and potentially free them to play Marco Luciano in the outfield. Zaidi said tonight that they’re not closing the door on Luciano winning the second base job, but they’ll need to see improvement (especially defensively) next spring for that to happen.

One area where the Giants don’t seem inclined to make a long-term play: first base. Zaidi indicated the team was reluctant to make an investment that would impede the path for top prospect Bryce Eldridge, their 2023 first-round pick. Eldridge is still a month shy of his 20th birthday, but he mashed at a .335/.442/.619 clip in High-A. He has made cameos at the top two minor league levels, and while he’s unlikely to break camp next year, Zaidi suggested there’s a path for him to debut at some point in 2025.

“Once a guy is in Double-A, Triple-A, they’re in the picture,” Zaidi said (relayed by Baggarly). “I think it behooves us to have a roster that’s flexible enough that if he’s ready next year, even early in the year, there’s a spot for him. So that’s going to be really important for us. I don’t anticipate us really locking up the first base and DH spot.” There’s a solid group of free agent first basemen, headlined by Pete Alonso and Christian Walker, but that doesn’t appear to be a priority for San Francisco.

Of course, these preliminary plans could go in any number of directions if ownership decides to make a front office change. That should be determined within the next few weeks. Giants fans will want to check out both The Athletic and The Chronicle columns in full for more quotes from Zaidi about his vision for the winter.

Royals Notes: Lorenzen, Marsh, Harvey, McArthur

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Michael Lorenzen will return from the 15-day injured list tomorrow. The Royals list him as the probable starter for the second game of their series in Washington. Kansas City will need to make a corresponding active roster move.

It’s a crucial start as K.C. fights for a playoff spot. The Royals squeaked out a 1-0 win in extra innings over the Nationals tonight. That kept them in front of the Tigers for the AL’s second Wild Card spot via the tiebreaker. They’re two games up on the Twins and 2.5 clear of the Mariners in the race.

Lorenzen has been down for more than a month because of a left hamstring strain. Acquired from the Rangers at the deadline, the righty had a sparkling 1.85 earned run average in 24 1/3 innings over his first five starts. That excellent run prevention was in spite of mediocre strikeout (17%) and walk (10%) rates. Lorenzen’s results have generally outpaced his peripherals for consecutive seasons. He carries a 3.43 ERA over 126 frames between Texas and K.C. this year.

Alec Marsh stepped back into the rotation while Lorenzen was on the shelf. He pitched fairly well, turning in a 4.50 ERA while striking out more than 32% of opponents over four starts. Marsh is moving into the bullpen to open a rotation spot, tweets Jaylon Thompson of the K.C. Star. The 26-year-old righty has turned in a 4.65 ERA with a solid 23% strikeout rate over 25 appearances (24 starts) on the year. He had an excellent start to the season before a terrible July led the Royals to option him to Triple-A for the three weeks preceding Lorenzen’s injury.

While Lorenzen’s return is a boost to the pitching staff, skipper Matt Quatraro provided disheartening updates on a pair of relievers this afternoon. The Royals have officially ruled out Hunter Harvey and James McArthur for the season, Quatraro said (X link via Anne Rogers of MLB.com). Harvey has been out since the middle of August with a back injury, while the Royals lost McArthur to an elbow sprain last week.

Quatraro said the Royals were sending Harvey for a second opinion, which at least raises the question of whether he’ll need surgery. Injuries have been a recurring problem for the 29-year-old righty. Harvey underwent Tommy John surgery as a prospect and has had extended absences during his MLB career for forearm, lat and elbow injuries.

Harvey can be a high-leverage reliever at his best, as he showed with the Nationals between 2023-24. He fired 60 2/3 innings of 2.82 ERA ball last season. This season’s 4.20 mark across 45 frames wasn’t as impressive, but Harvey punched out more than 26% of opponents behind a 13.4% swinging strike rate. The Royals viewed him as a late-game weapon and sent third base prospect Cayden Wallace plus the 39th pick in this summer’s draft to acquire him. They’ve gotten essentially nothing out of that deal, as Harvey allowed four runs over 5 2/3 innings before going on the shelf.

Kansas City controls Harvey for one more year via arbitration. The Royals would tender him a contract if they expect him to be back early in 2025, but a long-term injury could obviously change the calculus. He’d be due a small raise on this year’s $2.325MM sum.

McArthur operated as Kansas City’s closer for a time. He picked up 18 saves but also blew seven leads. McArthur’s heavy reliance on ground-balls without many whiffs plays better in the middle innings than it does in the ninth. His year concludes with a 4.92 ERA through 56 2/3 frames. The Royals are using deadline acquisition Lucas Erceg as their closer while turning high-leverage innings to converted starter Kris Bubic and left-hander Sam Long.

Esteury Ruiz Undergoes Arthroscopic Knee Surgery

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A’s speedster Esteury Ruiz underwent arthroscopic surgery to fix the patellar tendon in his right knee this afternoon. The team announced that Ruiz “will complete post-surgical rehabilitation in the offseason to prepare for 2025 Spring Training,” suggesting this shouldn’t impact his availability next season.

This was essentially a lost season for the 25-year-old outfielder. The A’s demoted Ruiz to Triple-A a few days into the season. While they recalled him a couple weeks later, he worked mostly in a bench role before suffering a left wrist injury that sent him to the injured list. Ruiz never made it back, as he battled renewed soreness in the wrist when he tried to ramp up on a rehab stint. The timing of the knee injury is unclear.

Ruiz was limited to 29 MLB contests — all of which came before the end of May. He hit .200 with 20 strikeouts in 65 plate appearances. It certainly wasn’t the step forward which the A’s had envisioned after Ruiz paced the American League with 67 stolen bases in 2023. That came with a middling .254/.309/.345 batting line and poor defensive grades in center field. Ruiz has yet to demonstrate he’s an especially effective all-around player, even if his speed makes him an elite baserunner.

The A’s built their return in the three-team Sean Murphy trade around Ruiz. Oakland looped in the Brewers as part of the deal, indicating they valued Ruiz more highly at the time than they did catcher William Contreras (who went from Atlanta to Milwaukee). Even with Shea Langeliers in the fold, that was an odd decision, since the A’s could have flipped Contreras elsewhere. It looks even worse in hindsight, as Contreras has developed into one of the game’s top catchers.

JJ Bleday has stepped up as the A’s primary center fielder. There should still be time for Ruiz to play his way back into center field work while pushing Bleday into a corner opposite Lawrence Butler. He’ll need to take steps forward on both sides of the ball to avoid falling into fourth or fifth outfielder territory.

Previewing The 2024-25 MLB Free Agent Class: Center Field

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MLBTR’s positional preview of the upcoming free agent class continues with a look at this winter’s thin crop of center fielders. It’s a bleak group, particularly if the potential top name available forgoes an opportunity to opt out and return to the open market. It’s worth reminding that veteran center fielder Kevin Kiermaier has said he plans to retire at season’s end. Kevin Pillar has suggested he’s likely to do the same. As such, neither is included below.

Player ages, listed in parenthesis, are for the 2025 season. Stats are through play on September 23. Only players who have appeared in the majors this year are included.

Other Entries: Catcher | First Base | Second Base | Shortstop | Third Base

The Opt-Out Possibility

Cody Bellinger (30)

Bellinger’s three-year, $80MM deal with the Cubs allows him to opt back into free agency either this winter or in the 2025-26 offseason. He’s having a solid year but has still posted lesser results than in his stellar rebound campaign in 2023. Bellinger has appeared in 126 games and taken 553 turns at the plate, batting .263/.324/.425 with 18 home runs in that span. He’s spent more time at first base than in center field, in part because of the emergence of top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong in center but also due to a decline in Bellinger’s own grades there.

Bellinger is the only free agent option in center who can be realistically expected to provide above-average offense. But his contract calls for a $27.5MM salary next season if he declines to opt out, with $25MM more to come in 2026. Bellinger could very likely top the remaining two years and $50MM in guaranteed money on his contract but not that $27.5MM salary for next season. And, since he has an opt-out provision next winter with a $5MM buyout, he could get the best of both worlds if he stays in Chicago, bets on a more productive 2025 campaign at the plate, and opts out next winter. There’s some risk and thus a case for Bellinger to opt out right now in search of a maximum guarantee, but he’s already bet on himself twice by taking short-term deals in free agency. If he wants to bet on himself once more, the path to the most earnings would be to take next year’s $27.5MM, turn in a big season, take the $5MM buyout and look to cash in post-2025.

Glove-First Players

Harrison Bader (31)

Bader’s .241/.290/.381 batting line this season is 11% worse than league-average, by measure of wRC+. He’s still smacked 12 homers and swiped 17 bags, though those steals have come in an unsightly 25 tries (68% success rate). Bader has long been a glove-first option in center, and at least as far as Statcast is concerned, that’s what he remains. Statcast credits him with a hefty 10 Outs Above Average thanks to good to great rankings in terms of sprint speed (74th percentile), arm strength (87th percentile) and range (96th percentile). Other metrics are more bearish, with Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating pegging him close to average.

That drop in DRS isn’t going to impact Bader much. He has a strong defensive reputation, and most clubs will look at the defensive tools and his overall track record and still count him as a plus defender. Bader is having a better offensive year than he did in 2023, after which he agreed to a one-year, $10.5MM deal with the Mets. It’s possible he could secure a multi-year deal this time around.

Enrique Hernandez (33)

Hernandez can play anywhere, but center has been his best defensive position. He’s a plus defender there by all accounts, though the Dodgers haven’t used him there much this year, instead deferring to players with more offensive upside (e.g. Andy Pages, James Outman). Hernandez isn’t going to land a job as someone’s everyday center fielder after hitting .219/.272/.362 this year, but his versatility and beloved clubhouse presence could net him a big league deal as a bench player.

Michael A. Taylor (34)

Only two players in baseball, regardless of position, have more than Taylor’s 55 Defensive Runs Saved over the past four seasons (Ke’Bryan Hayes, Andres Gimenez). Only five have a higher total of Outs Above Average (Hayes, Gimenez, Dansby Swanson, Francisco Lindor, Marcus Semien). Defense doesn’t get better than this. That said, after popping a career-high 21 homers with the 2023 Twins, Taylor was met with a frigid free agent market. He eventually landed in Pittsburgh on a one-year deal and has stumbled to the worst offensive performance of his career, hitting just .193/.253/.290 in 300 plate appearances. The glove is elite, and there’s clear power in Taylor’s bat, so he could still land another big league deal this offseason.

Depth Candidates

Garrett Hampson (30)

Hampson signed a $2MM deal with the Royals last winter but has turned in just a .227/.271/.300 slash without a homer in 220 plate appearances. He can run and plays solid defense all over the infield and outfield, but his lack of offense will probably limit him to a minor league deal.

Aaron Hicks (35)

Released by the Yankees early in the 2023 season, Hicks had a resurgence in Baltimore when he hit .275/.381/.425 in 226 plate appearances as an Oriole last year. That landed him a big league roster spot with the Angels, but he opened the season in a .140/.222/.193 funk (63 plate appearances) and was quickly released. He hasn’t signed elsewhere since. If Hicks wants to keep playing, he’ll need to take a minor league deal.

Travis Jankowski (34)

Jankowski gave the ’23 World Series Champions roughly average offense and quality glovework across all three outfield spots, but his bat fell flat in his 2024 return to the Rangers. He’s hit just .209/.269/.253 through 99 games and 197 plate appearances. Jankowski went unclaimed on outright waivers in late August and will be looking at a minor league deal this winter.

Manuel Margot (32)

Twice traded in the offseason, Margot went from Tampa Bay to Los Angeles and from the Dodgers to the Twins, with both the Rays and Dodgers taking on portions of his salary along the way. Margot has hit lefties in Minnesota but hasn’t done much else well, with an overall .239/.293/.339 slash on the season. His contract has a $12MM club option with a $4MM buyout, and the Rays are on the hook for that buyout under the terms of his original trade to Los Angeles. He’ll certainly be bought out and, like most of the other “depth candidates” on this list, figures to sign a minor league deal in the offseason.

Tommy Pham (37)

Pham has little business playing center field in 2024, but the White Sox trotted him out there for 223 innings out of necessity. He’ll be viewed as an emergency option there by most teams. Pham is hitting .251/.311/.376 on the season — below-average production overall. Pham could still land a small one-year deal or another minor league deal with a decent base salary if he plans to continue playing into his age-37 season.

Austin Slater (32)

Slater has more experience in center than at any other individual position in the majors, but he draws better defensive ratings in the outfield corners. He’s also played first base for a couple hundred innings and had brief cameos at second base and third base. Typically a menace to left-handed pitchers (career .270/.363/.438), Slater’s output against southpaws has tanked in 2024 (.181/.305/.224). He’s hitting only .205/.317/.263 on the whole and will presumably be limited to minor league offers this winter.

Eugenio Suarez’s Dramatic Resurgence

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Three months ago, it was in doubt whether Eugenio Suárez would finish the season with the Diamondbacks. Arizona's offseason acquisition of the veteran third baseman from the Mariners seemed like a bust. Suárez started the season horribly. He hit .241/.310/.357 through the end of April and fell into an even worse slump over the next two months. From the start of May through the end of June, Suárez posted a .165/.259/.280 line while striking out more than 30% of the time.

By the middle of June, the D-Backs were contemplating a change. On June 9, USA Today's Bob Nightengale wrote that the D-Backs were willing to consider what would've been a salary dump trade. Nightengale indicated that Suárez's hold on the third base job was tenuous and manager Torey Lovullo said a few days later that the Snakes would give more third base reps to rookie Blaze Alexander. That never really transpired, as Alexander scuffled in the limited playing time he did receive.

At the same time, Suárez began to find his footing. He reached base at a .391 clip between the time of Lovullo's comments and the end of the month. Once the calendar flipped to July, he transformed into an elite power threat.

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Rangers Select Matt Duffy, Promote Dustin Harris

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The Rangers made a handful of moves before tonight’s series opener in Oakland. Texas selected veteran infielder Matt Duffy onto the roster and recalled outfielder/infielder Dustin Harris for what’ll be his big league debut. The Rangers also activated reliever Josh Sborz from the 15-day injured list.

Texas placed third baseman Josh Jung on the 10-day IL, optioned lefty reliever Walter Pennington and put utilityman Ezequiel Duran on the paternity list. Tyler Mahle moved from the 15-day to the 60-day IL in a procedural move to open a 40-man roster spot for Duffy. Texas had already shut Mahle down on account of shoulder soreness.

The 33-year-old Duffy gets a brief opportunity to return to the majors. Duffy has been in Triple-A since signing a minor league deal in Spring Training. The veteran infielder hasn’t produced much offensively, turning in a .218/.296/.280 slash across 216 plate appearances in the Pacific Coast League. Texas was out of healthy infielders on the 40-man roster, though, so they’ll give Duffy a shot to play in the big leagues for a ninth season. He’ll back up Marcus Semien, Josh Smith and Jonathan Ornelas for the final six games of the year. Duffy will be a free agent at the start of the offseason and will be in line for another minor league contract somewhere.

Harris, 25, has a bit of third base experience himself. He has started 12 games there with Triple-A Round Rock this season. He’s primarily an outfielder, logging more than 900 frames between left and center field. The left-handed hitter carries a .272/.358/.391 slash with 10 longballs across 564 trips to the plate. That’s minimal power production for the hitter-friendly PCL, but Harris has stolen 35 bases and has strong plate discipline numbers over his minor league career.

Texas added Harris to their 40-man roster over the 2022-23 offseason. They’ve remained intrigued enough by his physical tools to keep him on the roster even while he was on optional assignment in the minors. Baseball America ranked Harris as the #11 prospect in the system on its midseason update. He could make his MLB debut against the organization that drafted him. Harris was an 11th-round pick by the A’s in 2019. Oakland traded him to the Rangers the following summer in a deadline deal for lefty Mike Minor.

Jung’s season comes to a close because of right wrist discomfort. The All-Star third baseman broke his wrist on a hit-by-pitch in the first week of the season. He underwent surgery that sidelined him until the end of July. Jung hasn’t played up to his 2023 level since returning and he’ll finish the year with a .264/.298/.421 slash in 46 games. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News wrote this week that Jung will visit a specialist on Thursday to determine the source of his ongoing discomfort. He’ll hope for a mostly healthy offseason.

Dodgers Select Edgardo Henriquez

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6:37pm: Los Angeles officially selected Henriquez’s contract while optioning Ben Casparius to clear a bullpen spot. The Dodgers transferred Gavin Stone to the 60-day IL to open the 40-man roster spot. Manager Dave Roberts announced last week that Stone’s season was likely over because of soreness in his throwing shoulder. That’s now official.

5:15pm: The Dodgers are going to promote right-hander Edgardo Henriquez, reports Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic on X. The righty isn’t on the club’s 40-man roster, so a corresponding move will be necessary to add him.

Henriquez, now 22, was an international signing of the Dodgers out of Venezuela a few years ago. He made his professional debut with 30 Rookie ball innings in 2019. The minor leagues were then wiped out by the pandemic in 2020.

In 2021, he tossed 34 2/3 innings, mostly at the Arizona Complex League. He allowed 4.93 earned runs per nine and walked 15.9% of batters faced, but struck out 33.1% of opponents. In 2022, he made 14 appearances at Single-A, 13 starts. He had a 4.54 ERA and 11% walk rate but a strong 27% strikeout rate. Going into 2023, FanGraphs ranked Henriquez the 20th best prospect in the Dodgers’ system, noting that his fastball sat in the high 90s and he also possessed an elite slider.

Tommy John surgery wiped out the 2023 season for Henriquez but he’s been back with a vengeance in 2024. He has gone through four levels this year, mostly pitching in relief, going from Single-A to High-A, Double-A and Triple-A. Between those four stops, he has 53 innings pitched with a 2.72 ERA. Control is still an issue, as he has walked 12.8% of batters faced on the year, but he’s also punched out 38.9% of them. As noted by Ardaya in the tweet above, Henriquez has hit 104 miles per hour with his fastball this year.

The Dodgers are currently 93-63. They have already clinched a playoff spot and have a good shot at both winning the National West division and securing a first-round bye. They are three games up on the Padres, though the two sides are kicking off a three-game series in Los Angeles tonight. Assuming the Dodgers don’t get swept and find themselves in a tight divisional battle, they should be in line for that bye since they are currently four games clear of the Central-leading Brewers.

As they play out the final games of the season, they can likely find a few moments to experiment a bit with Henriquez to see if his stuff can play against major league hitters. He may be a work in progress with his youth and wildness, but there’s clearly some talent and bat-missing ability here. If Henriquez can impress the club’s decision makers, perhaps he can pitch his way into a postseason role. He wasn’t on the 40-man prior to September but he was in the organization. Such players are allowed to be placed on postseason rosters via petition to the commissioner’s office, something that essentially a formality as it happens with regularity around the league.

Spencer Schwellenbach’s Emergence Is Huge For Atlanta

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A lot has gone wrong for Atlanta this year. They came into the year as one of the best on-paper clubs. Prior to any regular season games being played, the Playoff Odds at FanGraphs gave them a 25.3% chance of winning the World Series and a 98.5% chance of making the postseason, both of those figures being the highest in the league.

It appears we may be living in one of the 1.5% of alternate universes where they don’t make the playoffs, as their season is currently on the brink. They are two games behind the Mets and 1.5 behind the Diamondbacks for the final two National League Wild Card spots with less than a week to play. They could still squeak in, especially as they’re hosting the Mets for three this week, but it’s going to be tight. That’s thanks to a combination of factors, as several players on the roster have either underperformed or missed significant time due to injury.

Things may have been even worse if not for a handful of positive developments. The Chris Sale pickup has worked out beautifully, something that MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explored in a piece for Front Office subscribers. Signing Reynaldo López and moving him back to a starting role has also worked out well. Marcell Ozuna is having his best season in years. But they’ve also gotten a huge performance from rookie Spencer Schwellenbach, which is a big development for the club both this year and in the future.

Schwellenbach came into the year with fairly limited experience. The righty was drafted in 2021 but had Tommy John surgery afterwards, which kept him from making his professional debut until 2023. Once he was able to retake the mound, the results were strong. He pitched 65 innings on the farm last year, split between Single-A and High-A, allowing 2.49 earned runs per nine. He struck out 21.6% of opponents and kept his walks down to a 6.3% rate.

Another eight starts in the minors to start 2024, between High-A and Double-A, led to him getting a quick push to the majors. Atlanta had already lost Spencer Strider to season-ending UCL surgery and needed help in the rotation.

Schwellenbach was added to the roster and made his major league debut on May 29, just two days before his 24th birthday. He now has 19 starts under his belt and looks the part of a legit big league starter. In 109 2/3 innings, he has a 3.61 ERA. He has struck out 26.3% of batters faced and limited walks to a 4.9% clip.

Despite his fairly short track record as a professional, he seems to have a diverse and polished arsenal. Per Statcast, he has thrown six different pitches this year: a four-seamer, a sinker, cutter, slider, curveball and splitter. He has thrown all six of those offerings at least 7.4% of the time, and all but the sinker have been thrown at a 13.6% clip or higher. He hasn’t leaned on any individual pitch more than the 28.4% rate of four-seamers, making him difficult to predict.

Perhaps there’s an argument for him using the splitter a bit more, as he has some noticeable platoon splits at the moment. He’s held righties to a dismal line of .203/.242/.355 but lefties have a potent .267/.321/.462 performance against him so far. He has thrown that splitter 23.3% of the time against lefty hitters and allowed only a .161 batting average. However, his four-seamer, curveball and and cutter have each allowed a .308 average or higher while being thrown at least 13.8% of the time.

His slider and sinker are being thrown less than 10% of the time against lefties with solid results. Opponents are hitting .222 against the slider and .214 against the sinker. Schwellenbach has a 33.9% whiff rate when throwing sliders to lefties. Perhaps he could find better results by altering his pitch mix or maybe things will even out with the curveball. Opposing lefties are hitting .308 against it but his xBA is just .239 and his whiff rate is 41.9%.

Given the diversity of his pitch mix and the fact that he’s only getting his feet wet at the big league level, it seems fair to expect that he’ll figure out a way to tamp down on the big splits going forward.

Regardless of how that plays out in the future, he’s already a useful pitcher in the present. Though Atlanta is currently on the outside of the playoff picture, they would undoubtedly be even further back if Schwellenbach hadn’t hit the ground running in the big leagues. Some missteps would have been understandable given that he had limited experience and skipped over Triple-A entirely, but he has more than held his own and helped keep the club in the race this year. Guys like Bryce Elder, Hurston Waldrep, Darius Vines and Allan Winans all struggled in their major league looks this year, so the staff likely would have been in much worse shape if Schwellenbach didn’t take the ball those 19 times.

It’s also a key development for the club in the long term. Max Fried and Charlie Morton are both set for free agency, leaving two holes in next year’s rotation. Fried seems likely to command a nine-figure deal that Atlanta hasn’t given to a free agent before. Morton is about to turn 41 years old and has hinted at thoughts of retirement in recent years.

Without Fried or Morton and with Strider set to miss the start of next year, Atlanta was slated to start 2025 with a rotation core of Sale and López. As mentioned, Sale is having a great year but he’s about to turn 36 and didn’t pitch much from 2020 to 2023. López is also having a strong season but is converting from the bullpen to the rotation and has perhaps hit a bit of a wall, as he’s gone on the IL twice in the second half, with the second stint currently ongoing.

Having Schwellenbach in that rotation picture makes it look much better and he’ll be a huge help from a financial perspective as well. Atlanta has a bunch of significant contracts on the books due to signing a number of extensions in recent years. That gives them a lot of continuity but also less financial wiggle room in the offseasons.

Since Schwellenbach was called up at the end of May, he won’t be able to get a full year of service time in 2024. Per Matt Eddy of Baseball America, Schwellenbach isn’t eligible for the prospect promotion incentive, which means he can’t get a full year of service via Rookie of the Year voting. That means he won’t be arbitration eligible until after 2026 at the earliest, if he earns Super Two status, and can be controlled for six more seasons after this one.

Per RosterResource, the club has a competitive balance tax number of $197MM for next year. They will likely trigger club options on Ozuna ($16MM), Travis d’Arnaud ($8MM) and Aaron Bummer ($7.25MM). Bummer’s option has a $1.25MM buyout and Ozuna’s buyout is $1MM, though d’Arnaud’s has none. That means those three would add $29MM. Arbitration raises will be needed if they want to keep Jarred Kelenic and Ramón Laureano.

The club will be near next year’s $241MM base CBT threshold at the beginning of the offseason. Trading one of Ozuna or Soler could give them some extra wiggle room but they will have some things on the offseason to-do list. Upgrading on Orlando Arcia at shortstop could be part of their plans, and same for Kelenic/Laureano in the outfield. The starting rotation will definitely be a target area this winter but Schwellenbach should give them one fewer slot to fill, which could allow them to be more aggressive in addressing their remaining needs.

Fantasy Baseball: Well, You Lost – Now What?

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Hello, friends.

This is the best and most exciting week of the fantasy season. It's a time for taking the final steps towards a championship, staying laser-focused on every minute decision within your control; whether to eke out one or two more points to pass your final rival in roto (or keep from being passed) or trying to win one final head-to-head matchup.

Or, perhaps it's a time to coast because your in-season dominance has been such that the chances of being caught have approached a literal zero. Ahh, now that's nice -- getting to enjoy the fruits of your labors a week early, taking deep inhales from championship flowers while exhaling some cutting and clever burns on your vanquished league-mates, perhaps referencing their past trash talk that now seems very foolish, in hindsight. "Ha-ha!", you might say. "You said that my fantasy baseball team was going to be very bad but it is, in fact, the best fantasy baseball team. In your face -- ha-ha, HA!".*

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