Will Gerrit Cole Get To Free Agency?
For most of the season, it has seemed quite unlikely that Gerrit Cole would be part of next year's free agent class. The defending AL Cy Young winner has an opt-out clause after this season, but the deal is structured in such a way that makes it difficult for him to get to the market.
This is year five of his nine-year, $324MM free agent pact. Cole's dominant first four seasons in the Bronx have already established him as one of the best top-of-the-market signings in recent history. The deal allows Cole to opt out of the remaining four years and $144MM after this season. The Yankees could then void the opt-out by triggering a $36MM club option covering the 2029 campaign. In the aftermath of Cole's first Cy Young, it was fair to presume the right-hander would opt out, only for New York to exercise the '29 option. Cole's agent Scott Boras suggested as much last December. That's no longer a lock.
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Astros Option Chas McCormick
The Astros optioned outfielder Chas McCormick to Triple-A Sugar Land following last night’s game — presumably to clear an active roster spot for the pending arrival of newly signed outfielder Jason Heyward. The team didn’t formally announce the move yet, but McCormick took it upon himself to call the Astros beat over to his locker last night and inform them of the news after he’d been told (X links via Chandler Rome of The Athletic). Houston still needs to clear a 40-man spot for Heyward.
It’s the first time McCormick has been sent to the minors since June 2022 — a trip that only lasted one day, as he was quickly recalled to the big leagues after Michael Brantley landed on the injured list. With the exception of that one-day trip to Sugar Land, this new optional assignment is the first time McCormick has been sent down since initially being called to the majors. (He’s briefly played in the minors in the past two years while on injury rehab assignments but hasn’t actually been optioned.)
The 2024 season has been a nightmare for the 29-year-old McCormick and a noted departure from the productive three-year stretch he enjoyed from 2021-23. McCormick posted a solid .257/.319/.447 slash as a rookie in 2021, enjoyed a more productive year in 2022 and broke out with a career-best .273/.353/.489 slash last year. McCormick enjoyed career-best marks in home runs (22), doubles (17), stolen bases (19), plate appearances (457), strikeout rate (25.6%), wRC+ (134) and wins above replacement (3.3 fWAR, 3.6 bWAR) during that standout 2023 campaign.
Everything has trended in the wrong direction in 2024. The 2017 21st-rounder has posted a disastrous .192/.256/.292 batting line in 243 plate appearances this season. McCormick’s 28.8% strikeout rate isn’t a career-worst but is a significant increase from last year. His 6.6% walk rate is a career-low. McCormick has chased pitches off the plate at the highest rate of his career (33.1%) and made contact on pitches within the strike zone at the lowest rate of his career (76%). The contact he’s made has generally been weak. Statcast pegs him with career-worst marks in average exit velocity (85.2 mph), barrel rate (7.8%) and hard-hit rate (31.4%). McCormick has hit more infield flies (six) in a career-low 243 plate appearances this season than he has in any previous campaign.
Depending on the amount of time McCormick spends in Sugar Land, there could be contractual implications. He entered the 2024 season with exactly three years of service, meaning he’d need 172 days in the majors to hit four years of service. At the moment, he’s accrued 154 days of major league service. McCormick still needs another 18 days to cross four years of service and remain on track for free agency in the 2026-27 offseason. If he’s not recalled on or before Sept. 12, his path to free agency will be pushed back by a year.
For now, the focus will be getting McCormick back on track down in Triple-A, where he can get everyday at-bats that haven’t been available as a contending Astros club looks to stay atop a closely contested AL West race. McCormick did pinch-hit in last night’s game and swat a two-run homer, though that was just his fourth hit in 48 plate appearances since the trade deadline.
At the moment, with Kyle Tucker still on the shelf, the Astros’ outfield mix includes Jake Meyers, Yordan Alvarez, utilityman Mauricio Dubon, journeyman Ben Gamel and (soon) the aforementioned Heyward. With Alvarez working primarily as a designated hitter (81 games there versus 43 in left field) and three lefty-swinging options in the outfield mix (Alvarez, Gamel, Heyward), there should be room for McCormick’s right-handed bat if a brief minor league reset can get him back on track. That’s particularly with rosters set to expand from 26 to 28 players on Sept. 1. While he’s struggled against lefties and righties alike this season, McCormick is still a career .286/.358/.508 hitter against southpaws.
The Opener: Waivers, Astros, Phillies, Braves
As the 2024 regular season continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Last call for waiver activity:
Last night news broke that the Giants had placed infielder Thairo Estrada as well as lefties Taylor Rogers and Tyler Matzek on outright waivers, allowing any of the league’s other 29 clubs to claim any of them for no cost beyond the remainder of the player’s contract. The waiver process lasts for two days, meaning players put on waivers today figure to be claimed on August 31. That makes today the last day to waive players and have them still be eligible for the postseason with their new club, since players who join a new organization after the calendar flips to September are not eligible to participate in the postseason with their new club.
One year ago today, the Angels drew attention to the waiver process by putting a number of pending free agents on waivers, including key pieces like Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez they had just added at the trade deadline. Teams have put plenty of players through outright waivers so far this year in an attempt to offload their salary, with Drew Smyly of the Cubs, and Michael A. Taylor of the Pirates among the most recent examples. Will any other veterans on clubs unlikely to make the postseason hit the waiver wire today?
2. Astros 40-man move incoming:
The Astros recently signed veteran outfielder Jason Heyward to a big league deal following the Dodgers’ decision to part ways with the 35-year-old last week. Heyward, who has hit .208/.289/.393 with a wRC+ of 90 in 197 trips to the plate with L.A. this year, was squeezed off the roster by Mookie Betts‘s return to right field after spending the first half on the infield and the club’s acquisition of Kevin Kiermaier just before the trade deadline last month. Now Heyward figures to join the Houston bench mix as a left-handed complement to Mauricio Dubon in left and Jake Meyers in right field.
Heyward reportedly took his physical with the club yesterday, and given the fact that the Astros have already announced that outfielder Chas McCormick was optioned to Triple-A last night it seems likely that the veteran will be active before today’s game against the Royals. The club will need to make room for Heyward on the 40-man roster before he can join the club, and without any clear candidates for the 60-day IL available that will likely mean designating a player for assignment.
3. Series Preview: Braves @ Phillies
With just over a month to go before the regular season comes to a close, the top two teams in the NL East are set to meet for a four-game set in Philadelphia that will be their last head-to-head matchup of the year barring a clash in the playoffs. The Braves took two of three from the Phillies in their meeting last week and have posted a 6-1 record since then, allowing them to gain significant ground in the division. They now sit just five games back in the NL East, meaning that a sweep of their top rival would put them just one game back from claiming their seventh consecutive division crown.
Meanwhile, a poor showing from Atlanta could put them on the back foot in the Wild Card race, with the Mets and Cubs both still lurking on the periphery of the postseason picture. A strong performance from the Phillies, on the other hand, could put them in the drivers’ seat for a bye through the Wild Card series in a tight race for the top two NL seeds between themselves, the Dodgers, and the Brewers. The series will kick off at 6:40pm local time this evening with veteran righty Charlie Morton (4.24 ERA) taking on young southpaw Cristopher Sanchez (3.51 ERA), and later games in the series will pit Reynaldo Lopez (2.02 ERA) against Ranger Suarez (2.82 ERA), Max Fried (3.50 ERA) versus Zack Wheeler (2.74 ERA), and Spencer Schwellenbach (3.72 ERA) against Aaron Nola (3.30 ERA).
Tim Dierkes’ MLB Mailbag: Soto, Bichette, Tigers, Cardinals
In this week's mailbag, I discuss Juan Soto's free agent contract, the Rangers' 2025 rotation, possible matches in a Bo Bichette trade, outlooks next year for the Tigers and Cardinals, and much more.
Jason asks:
Juan Soto is obviously going to be the talk of the offseason. He has also undoubtedly proven a huge asset in helping Aaron Judge be walked less (even if hitting in front of him). What contract does MLBTR predict Soto will land this offseason in years & dollars?
Bob asks:
I have watched Juan Soto a lot this year and am thinking about pros and cons of the Yankees re-signing (or any other team signing) him to a long-term free agent contract during the offseason. He is obviously a great hitter and great teammate but as I have watched him, my (admittedly armchair) impression is that he is a good, but not great defender and he is not particularly fast. Based on that, I wonder how he will age and what he will look like as he progresses into his mid-30s. I suspect, at age 25, he will be looking for a 12+ year contract and I am not sure what a 37-year-old (or even a 33-year-old) Soto will look like.
I was talking about this with my brother-in-law earlier this summer and he thought that Soto might sign a shorter-term contract with the Yankees because of the "intangibles" of playing in New York but I am doubtful about that and suspect that Soto will go for the longest contract and biggest dollars, no matter who offers it. My fear is that Soto will become another Robinson Cano - not so pretty as he ages. On the other hand, the WAR that he will produce for the next 5-8 years might be worth eating 4 or 5 less productive years. Thoughts?
No one knows how much Soto will get, and nothing is guaranteed.
I remember when the "perfect" free agent hit the market six years ago. Bryce Harper was a Boras Corporation client going into his age-26 season. I'll admit that his 2018 contract year was not nearly as impressive as Soto's, and Harper had not quieted modest concerns about his defense to the degree Soto has. But Harper was a Hall of Fame track superstar in his prime, just like Soto.
At various points leading up to Harper's free agency, milestones like $400MM and even $500MM were bandied about. After much debate, MLBTR settled on a 14-year, $420MM contract prediction. We felt Harper would fly past Giancarlo Stanton's $325MM record, which had not been achieved on the open market. We also thought Harper would sacrifice a record average annual value, "settling" for a $30MM AAV that would cause less competitive balance tax pain.
Instead, Harper's market was inexplicably cold given his track record, ceiling, and age. He signed with the Phillies in late February, accepting a non-superstar $25.38MM AAV over 13 years as a way of inching past Stanton's total by a mere $5MM or 1.5%. So we ended up being $90MM high on our prediction, but time has shown that many teams that were unwilling to top the Phillies' offer would have benefited from doing so.
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Giants Place Thairo Estrada, Taylor Rogers On Waivers
The Giants placed second baseman Thairo Estrada and lefty relievers Taylor Rogers and Tyler Matzek on waivers, report Grant Brisbee and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. They’re the latest veteran players known to hit the waiver wire as fringe contenders attempt to offload some salary.
Estrada, Rogers and Matzek were not designated for assignment. They can continue to play for the Giants pending resolution of the waiver process. If they go unclaimed, San Francisco can (and quite likely will) simply keep them on the roster for the rest of the season. However, waivers are irrevocable. If another team places a claim on anyone, the Giants do not have the ability to rescind the placement.
Of course, the Giants wouldn’t have placed the players on waivers if they weren’t hoping another team made a claim. This is strictly a move to try to shed payroll. Estrada probably stands the best chance of the group to be claimed. He’s playing on a $4.7MM arbitration salary. There’ll be roughly $810K to be paid from tomorrow through the end of the season.
The 28-year-old Estrada is generally well regarded for his defensive acumen. Defensive Runs Saved has never been keen on his performance, but he grades very highly by Statcast’s Outs Above Average. While that hasn’t changed this year, his offense has fallen off a cliff. Estrada was an average or better hitter during his first three seasons with the Giants, combining for a .266/.320/.416 slash. He topped 20 stolen bases and drilled 14 homers apiece in 2022 and ’23.
This season, Estrada has been one of the worst hitters in the game. He sports a .216/.246/.345 line through 374 plate appearances. While that’s partially due to a career-low .245 average on balls in play, Estrada has never walked much or had particularly strong batted ball metrics. Among hitters with 300+ plate appearances, only Eddie Rosario and Adam Duvall have a lower on-base percentage.
That performance makes it likely the Giants will move on from Estrada next offseason even if he sticks on the roster for the remainder of the year. He’d be due a small raise on this year’s salary, likely into the $5-6MM range. The Giants have evidently determined they were going to decline to tender him a contract, so they’ll make him available to other teams a month earlier to see if they can shed the final month of his 2024 salary.
Rogers is having a much better season than Estrada, but he’d be a far costlier pickup. The veteran southpaw is in the second season of a three-year, $33MM free agent deal. It’s a backloaded contract that pays him $12MM this year and next. He’ll be due a little more than $2MM for the final month of the season. A claiming team would also need to absorb his $12MM salary for the ’25 season. That isn’t an outlandish amount for a reliever of Rogers’ caliber but represents a hefty sum to take on via midseason waiver claim.
The 33-year-old Rogers is a former All-Star closer with the Twins. He has remained effective over his two seasons in San Francisco. After turning in a 3.83 earned run average across 51 2/3 innings a year ago, he carries a 2.45 mark in 51 1/3 frames this season. Rogers has fanned an above-average 28.2% of opponents against a solid 7.7% walk rate. He has been generally solid all year yet hasn’t pitched his way into first-year manager Bob Melvin’s circle of trust.
By measure of leverage index, Rogers has been eighth on San Francisco’s bullpen hierarchy (among relievers with at least 10 innings). That hasn’t changed throughout the season despite Rogers’ numbers. It’s understandable the Giants wouldn’t want to pay $12MM next season to a reliever whom Melvin feels is best suited in the middle innings.
Matzek is the most affordable of the trio. Acquired from the Braves as a salary offset in the Jorge Soler deadline deal, he’s playing on a $1.9MM contract. Matzek was on the injured list at the time of the trade and hasn’t thrown a pitch as a Giant. He missed all of last year recovering from Tommy John surgery. Matzek returned this season before landing back on the IL in May with elbow inflammation.
The 33-year-old southpaw had a tough first month in Atlanta, giving up 11 runs over 10 frames. The Giants sent him to Triple-A on a rehab stint a couple weeks ago. He has made five appearances, allowing four runs through 4 2/3 innings. Matzek should be able to return in September, though it’s not clear if a contender is willing to plug him into their bullpen after a five-month layoff.
Matzek is due around $330K for the rest of the year. His deal contains a $5.5MM team option for next season without a buyout. That’s unlikely to be exercised by the Giants or a hypothetical claiming team.
KBO’s Kia Tigers Sign Eric Stout
The Kia Tigers of the Korea Baseball Organization announced this week that they’ve signed former MLB left-hander Eric Stout. He’s a temporary injury replacement for righty James Naile, who sustained a broken jaw when he was hit in the face by a comebacker off the bat of Matt Davidson (link via Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News).
Stout, a 31-year-old southpaw, has 23 major league appearances under his belt. Three of them came with the Royals in 2018. The remainder were in ’22, when he combined for 20 outings between the Pirates and Cubs. Stout turned in a 5.64 ERA across 22 1/3 innings, striking out 22.7% of batters faced against an elevated 14.5% walk rate. He spent most of last year in Triple-A and signed in Taiwan’s Chinese Professional Baseball League for the ’24 season. Stout had a 2.77 ERA across 113 2/3 innings spanning 20 appearances to earn the bump to the KBO.
Naile, 31, appeared in 17 games for the Cardinals between 2022-23. While he struggled to a 7.40 earned run average, he parlayed a strong Triple-A season into a deal with the Kia Tigers. The UAB product had a 2.53 ERA with a decent 21.5% strikeout rate over 149 1/3 frames in his debut year in Korea. The jaw injury unfortunately ends his regular season, though Yoo suggests he could return in the playoffs.
Miguel Andujar Undergoes Season-Ending Core Surgery
A’s left fielder Miguel Andujar is undergoing surgery to address a core injury, manager Mark Kotsay announced this afternoon (X link via Martín Gallegos of MLB.com). Oakland placed him on the 10-day injured list when they recalled infielder Nick Allen today; the A’s can move Andujar to the 60-day IL whenever they need a 40-man roster spot.
Oakland brought in Andujar via waivers from the Pirates last offseason. They agreed to a $1.7MM salary to avoid arbitration. A meniscus repair cost him the first six weeks of the regular season. Andujar returned in late May and went on to have an alright season. He played in 70 games and hit .285/.320/.377. That’s essentially league average offensive production. His 319 plate appearances represented his highest total since his 2018 rookie campaign, when he popped 27 homers as the Yankees’ everyday third baseman to earn a runner-up finish in Rookie of the Year voting.
The righty-hitting Andujar had huge platoon splits. He mashed left-handed pitching at a .411/.459/.536 clip in 61 trips. His .256/.287/.341 showing versus righties was far less impressive. Andujar certainly won’t maintain that kind of production against southpaws over a big sample, yet he kept his strikeout rate to a meager 9.8% clip in those situations. That could be enough to get him another shot as a short side platoon bat going into next season.
Andujar surpassed five years of major league service. He’d be due a modest raise if the A’s want to keep him around for his last year of arbitration. The A’s don’t have a single guaranteed contract on the books for next season. Brent Rooker will be their only arbitration-eligible player of note, and he’s going through the process for the first time. Even by A’s standards, there’s ample payroll flexibility to retain Andujar if they feel he has any untapped upside at the plate.
Jorge Mateo Undergoes Season-Ending Elbow Surgery
Orioles utilityman Jorge Mateo is done for the year. Baltimore announced this evening that the speedster required a season-ending repair of the UCL in his left (non-throwing) elbow. He underwent an internal brace procedure with a repair of the flexor tendon.
Elbow ligament damage is far more common in pitchers. Mateo’s injury, of course, wasn’t sustained on a throw. While playing second base on a late July game against the Marlins, he ranged to his right to field a slow grounder up the middle. Mateo dove to try to make a backhand stop. At the same time, shortstop Gunnar Henderson moved to his left and went into a slide. Henderson rolled up on Mateo’s arm and bent his elbow back at an awkward angle.
The O’s initially announced the injury as an elbow subluxation. Mateo quickly landed on the 60-day injured list, already ruling him out into late September. He’d hoped to make a late-season return into the playoffs, but that won’t be possible. Manager Brandon Hyde expressed hope that the 29-year-old will be ready by next Opening Day (link via MLB.com’s Jake Rill).
Mateo is no longer an everyday player, but his speed and ability to play anywhere in the middle of the diamond would’ve made him a key bench piece going into the postseason. The O’s lost budding star third baseman Jordan Westburg to a hand fracture shortly after the Mateo injury; he’s out into September. Jackson Holliday is back in the majors as the everyday second baseman. The top prospect hasn’t struggled to the extent that he did during his first MLB look. Still, his .221/.280/.442 slash line since his most recent recall is below average. Westburg’s injury pushed Ramón Urías back into the lineup at the hot corner. Urías had an underwhelming start to the year but has somewhat quietly run a .273/.343/.511 line since the All-Star Break.
The O’s are carrying Emmanuel Rivera and Livan Soto as backup infielders. Neither has the speed that Mateo brings to the table. Mateo doesn’t hit for a high average or take many walks, but he has double-digit home run power and is a constant threat on the bases. He topped 30 steals in each of the last two years and was 13-15 this season. Baltimore just claimed outfielder Forrest Wall off waivers from Miami, perhaps with an eye towards carrying him as a designated pinch-runner in October.
Mateo is heading into his final season of arbitration eligibility. He is playing this year on a $2.7MM salary and should land in the $3-4MM range if Baltimore tenders him a contract for 2025. While Mateo has seemed like a trade or non-tender candidate for the past couple offseasons, the O’s have held him for more than three years.
Nick Senzel Elects Free Agency
Infielder Nick Senzel has elected free agency, per James Fegan of Sox Machine on X. The White Sox had designated Senzel for assignment earlier this week and it appears he cleared waivers. Since he has more than five years of service time, he has the right to elect free agency while also retaining his salary.
Senzel, 29, started the season by signing with the Nationals, a one-year deal with a $2MM guarantee. He hit .209/.303/.359 in 235 plate appearances, production that translated into an 88 wRC+. He was designated for assignment in July and the Nats simply released him, likely due to his aforementioned right to elect free agency.
He then signed a major league deal with the Sox, which didn’t lead to better results. He only got into 10 games in over a month on the roster, stepping to the plate 32 times. He produced a dismal line of .100/.129/.133 in those, dropping his season-long line to .195/.283/.331 and a 73 wRC+. When combined with his time with the Reds in previous seasons, he has slashed .232/.299/.363 for a 76 wRC+ in over 1600 career plate appearances.
He hasn’t been able to provide anything on the other side of the ball either. He came up as a third baseman but the Reds had that spot filled by Eugenio Suárez at the time and moved Senzel around to other spots. He’s now played over 2,000 major league innings in the outfield, as well as over 800 at the hot corner and a brief look at second base to this point in his career. Advanced defensive metrics have given him negative grades at all those spots.
Given that track record, any interest in Senzel at this point would be based on his previous prospect pedigree. The Reds took him second overall in the 2016 draft based on his huge numbers at Tennessee, where he hit .332/.426/.509. He then hit .314/.390/.513 in the minors over the 2016-18 period, which got him onto the top ten of most league-wide prospect lists. But the big offensive production stopped once he reached the majors in 2019.
The results have come in far below expectations thus far, but Senzel is a cheap flier for any club that still has hope of him tapping into his previous form. The Nats are still on the hook for his salary since they released him earlier this year. Any other club could sign him for the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the roster, with that amount subtracted from what the Nats are paying.
Fantasy Baseball: Stretch Run Prep
Hello friends.
With September almost upon us, let's keep things going with some prep work for any championship runs in fantasy. We've taken a look the last two weeks at which teams to target when streaming pitchers, so it's time to flip over to the hitting side of things. And KISS shall be our guiding principle. No, not Gene Simmons and dem boys; I'm talking about Keeping It Simple Sucka's.
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