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Rays Sign Jake Odorizzi To Minor League Deal

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The Rays have signed old friend Jake Odorizzi to a minor league contract, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The Excel Sports Management client already in camp. Odorizzi tells Topkin that he’d been throwing teams throughout the winter in search of a big league contract, but his familiarity with the organization and a clear opportunity in an injury-plagued rotation paved the way for the current agreement. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that Odorizzi will be paid at a $1.5MM rate in the big leagues with $500K bonuses available for reaching 25, 50, 75, 100 and 150 innings on the season.

Tampa Bay already entered the season knowing that Shane McClanahan is likely to miss the season due to last August’s Tommy John surgery, while both Drew Rasmussen (internal brace surgery last July), Jeffrey Springs (Tommy John surgery last April) and Shane Baz (2022 Tommy John surgery) are midseason additions at best. This week, they learned that young right-hander Taj Bradley will open the season on the injured list due to a pectoral strain that still doesn’t have a definitive timetable for his return. Unsurprisingly, they’re bringing in some veteran rotation depth.

Odorizzi himself is on the mend from an injury. He was traded from the Braves to the Rangers in the 2022-23 offseason but wound up requiring arthroscopic surgery on his right shoulder in early April, which knocked him out for the entire season. He never threw a pitch for Texas.

It’s been an up and down few years for Odorizzi, who from his peak with the Rays and Twins was a durable and quite effective mid-rotation arm. In a six-year span from 2014-19, the right-hander tossed 991 2/3 innings of 3.88 ERA ball, striking out 23% of his opponents against an 8.2% walk rate. Odorizzi has never been a flamethrower but has typically posted solid spin rates on his 91-95 mph heater and missed bats at the top of the zone. He was an All-Star with the Twins in 2019 when he pitched 169 innings of 3.51 ERA ball with a career-high 27.1% strikeout rate.

That season prompted the Twins to issue a qualifying offer, which Odorizzi accepted. He returned to Minnesota for the shortened 2020 season but wound up only making four starts due primarily to an intercostal strain. Odorizzi returned to free agency, inked a two-year deal with the Astros, and split the 2021-22 seasons between Houston and Atlanta, combining to toss 211 innings with a 4.31 ERA and diminished 19.8% strikeout rate. A flexor strain in his right arm in 2021 and a tendon strain in his lower leg in 2022 cost Odorizzi more than three months of action during that two-year period.

It’s not entirely clear when Odorizzi will be game-ready, but he could very well emerge as an option at some point in the season’s first few weeks. The Rays currently project to deploy right-handers Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale, Zack Littell and Ryan Pepiot in the top four spots of the rotation. Other options for starts include swingmen Tyler Alexander and Chris Devenski, both of whom were being stretched out to three innings during camp anyway. Prospect Jacob Lopez is also on the 40-man roster, while non-roster options of note include prospect Mason Montgomery, NPB signee Naoyuki Uwasawa and journeyman righty Jacob Waguespack.

The Opener: Spring Breakout, Seoul Series, Free Agent Bats

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With the start of the regular season just around the corner, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Spring Breakout continues:

After Orioles’, Pirates’, Reds’, and Rangers’ prospects participated in Spring Breakout exhibition games yesterday, ten more teams are slated to participate today before the final nine exhibition games occur over the weekend. Today’s slate of games will kick off with the Marlins taking on the Cardinals at 1:05pm CT this afternoon. The Nationals and Mets will then square off at 2:10pm CT before Padres and Mariners face each other at 3:10pm CT. Then, the Cubs will be matched against the White Sox at 4:05pm CT before today’s slate of games concludes with the Giants facing the A’s at 6:05pm CT.

The game between Miami and St. Louis stands to feature top-100 talents Noble Meyer, Tink Hence, Tekoah Roby, and Masyn Winn. Washington and New York will feature the likes of Brady House, Dylan Crews, James Wood, Jett Williams, and Luisangel Acuna. Fans in San Diego and Seattle will get the opportunity to watch Robby Snelling, Dylan Lesko, Ethan Salas, Harry Ford, Cole Young, and Colt Emerson, while the North and South sides of Chicago will showcase top-100 talents such as Cade Horton, Matt Shaw, James Triantos, Owen Caissie, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Kevin Alcantara, and Colson Montgomery. San Francisco and Oakland’s match, meanwhile, will feature Bryce Eldridge and Jacob Wilson. MLB.com has full details on each club’s respective broadcast info and full rosters, which you can access with the links attached to each city in this paragraph.

2. Seoul Series exhibition games:

MLB’s Spring Breakout isn’t the only event to feature exhibition games this weekend, as the Dodgers and Padres are traveling to South Korea to participate in the Seoul Series. While the two clubs will face off next week for a two-game regular season set, a handful of exhibition games are set to occur this weekend. The festivities kick off at 10pm CT tomorrow when the Dodgers take on the Kiwoom Heroes of the Korea Baseball Organization, before the Padres take on the KBO’s LG Twins at 10pm CT on Sunday. Meanwhile, early risers will have the opportunity to catch exhibition games that will feature both clubs facing South Korea’s national team. Team Korea will face the Padres at 5am CT Sunday morning, and face the Dodgers at 5am CT Monday morning. The Seoul Series represents a homecoming for Padres shortstop Ha-Seong Kim and newly signed reliever Woo Suk Go. Kim played for the Heroes from 2014 to 2020 before making the jump to the majors. Go signed with the Padres just this offseason and will be facing off against his former LG Twins teammates when the two clubs meet.

3. Will Duvall spur further free agent activity?

Yesterday saw the first notable move on the free agent market since the Mariners signed right-hander Ryne Stanek last week, as the Braves inked outfielder Adam Duvall to a one-year deal worth $3MM. Duvall was one of the three best outfielders remaining on the market alongside corner bat Tommy Pham and center fielder Michael A. Taylor. Duvall’s presence on the market could have impact extending beyond the outfield, as other righty power bats of note include J.D. Martinez and recently-released corner bat J.D. Davis. With Duvall now off the board, could the market begin to move on the final free agent hitters of note over the weekend?

Braves Sign Adam Duvall

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The Braves announced Thursday that they’ve signed veteran outfielder Adam Duvall to a one-year, $3MM contract. The CAA client will return for a third stint with Atlanta. The Braves’ 40-man roster had multiple open spots, so a corresponding move was not necessary.

Less than one month after Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos indicated that the team was not planning to platoon newly acquired outfielder Jarred Kelenic in left field, Anthopoulos now tells the Braves beat the opposite: the righty-hitting Duvall will pair with the left-handed Kelenic in left field (X link via Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution).

The change in plans is likely attributable to multiple factors, including a presumable drop in Duvall’s asking price and also Kelenic’s struggles thus far in spring training. The once-ballyhooed prospect, whom the Braves effectively paid around $26MM to acquire (between eating bad contracts and the associated luxury-tax hits), is off to a 2-for-30 start with four walks and seven punchouts this spring. Kelenic has struggled against lefties throughout his still-young career, evidenced by a .189/.255/.311 slash (61 wRC+) and 29.9% strikeout rate against them.

Duvall, 35, has played with five teams in his career but spent more time with Atlanta than any other club. In parts of five prior seasons, he’s batted .224/.285/.464 — numbers that generally align with his career marks. He’s a strikeout-prone slugger whose paltry walk rates lead to low batting averages and poor OBP marks, but Duvall offsets those flaws with plus power and typically plus defensive grades in the outfield corners. Though he’ll be in a platoon role in this latest Braves stint, he has roughly even splits in his career: .232/.301/.469 (101 wRC+) versus left-handed pitching, .232/.287/.473 (97 wRC+) against right-handers.

Duvall spent the 2023 season with the Red Sox and was the game’s hottest hitter for the first ten days of the season before fracturing his wrist on a diving attempt in the outfield. He missed exactly two months and returned to post .223/.273/.474 slash that’s right in line with his career marks. Duvall swatted 21 homers in just 353 plate appearances with Boston — the best power output of his career on a rate basis — but also fanned in more than 31% of his plate appearances for a third consecutive season.

The Sox surprised many onlookers when signing Duvall to serve as their primary center fielder, and defensive metrics were down on his performance there. It’s reasonable to expect a bounceback in a less-demanding and more familiar left field setting, where Duvall has logged more than 68% of his career innings.

Despite the modest price tag, Duvall was relatively popular in terms of the number of teams showing interest in him this winter. The Red Sox, Angels, Twins, Blue Jays, Padres and D-backs were just some of the clubs connected to him, though many went in other directions. Minnesota seemingly preferred a truer backup center fielder and acquired Manuel Margot. Arizona took a more prototypical lefty masher in Randal Grichuk. San Diego was connected to Duvall as recently as Monday, but it’s possible Duvall simply preferred to return to the organization he knows best. Given his history with the club and given that the Braves are one of the largest postseason favorites in the entire sport, it’d be hard to blame him.

Because the Braves are already well into the second tier of luxury-tax penalization and are a second-year offender of the CBT, they’ll be taxed at a 42% clip on Duvall’s signing. That comes to a modest $1.26MM slap on the wrist and brings the total cost of acquisition on Duvall to $4.26MM. Per RosterResource, the Braves are now up to just over $273MM in luxury obligations. If they cross the $277MM mark, they’ll be taxed at a 72.5% rate on subsequent additions and see their top pick in next year’s draft dropped by ten spots.

Latest On Michael Lorenzen’s Market

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With Opening Day less than two weeks off, Michael Lorenzen stands as arguably the #3 starting pitcher on the free agent market. The White Sox and Yankees have reportedly shown recent interest in the 32-year-old righty, but he evidently has yet to find a deal to his liking.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that Lorenzen has declined contract offers in the $5-7MM range. It’s not clear which teams made those proposals or how recently Lorenzen’s camp passed. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported last week that the 6’3″ hurler had been holding out for a two-year pact.

It’s therefore not surprising that Lorenzen turned down what were presumably one-year offers at fairly modest salaries. He’s coming off his first All-Star nod and tallied a career-high 153 innings between the Tigers and Phillies last season. He looked on his way to a strong multi-year pact by the middle of August. After no-hitting the Nationals on August 9, he carried a 3.23 ERA in 20 starts. Lorenzen was never likely to maintain that kind of run prevention unless he improved upon a modest 19.4% strikeout rate, but few would have anticipated how badly his final six weeks would go.

Lorenzen allowed 30 runs (27 earned) in his final 30 1/3 frames. His already modest strikeout percentage dropped another seven points, while his previously strong walk rate jumped to 10.3%. The Phillies moved him to relief at the end of the regular season and didn’t lean heavily on him during the playoffs. That poor finish has seemingly led to a disconnect between how teams project Lorenzen and the kind of contract he expected to command heading into the winter.

Despite the rough conclusion, Lorenzen’s season ERA sat at a respectable 4.18 in 29 outings. His camp presumably viewed recent two-year guarantees inked by the likes of Ross Stripling ($25MM), Drew Smyly ($19MM), Jordan Lyles ($17MM) and KBO returnee Erick Fedde ($15MM) as comparison points. Innings eaters Kyle Gibson ($13MM) and Lance Lynn ($11MM) signed one-year pacts early this offseason that pushed past eight figures.

The offers which Lorenzen declined value him below those other pitchers. As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, five starting pitchers have signed one-year guarantees between $3MM and $9MM this offseason. Each of Wade Miley, Alex Wood, Martín Pérez, James Paxton and Jakob Junis landed in the $7MM – $8.5MM range.

Lorenzen himself has fallen in that category in each of his previous two free agent trips. He signed for $6.75MM with the Angels over the 2021-22 offseason. Last year, he inked an $8.5MM deal with the Tigers. Lorenzen has sought to move past that tier on the heels of a stronger platform season than the ones that preceded his last two free agent stints. It’s not known if that might’ve been achievable earlier in the offseason, but it seems he’s facing a tight market as many teams are at or near the payroll with which they’re willing to open the season.

Braves Release Jordan Luplow

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The Braves announced they’ve released veteran outfielder Jordan Luplow to pursue other opportunities. He’d been in camp as a non-roster player after signing a minor league pact in January.

Luplow is a right-handed hitting outfielder who’d been competing for a bench job in camp. Atlanta signed Adam Duvall to a $3MM pact this afternoon to play that role instead. Carrying both Duvall and Luplow would have been a bit redundant, so the Braves decided to let the latter get an early jump on his next opportunity.

The Duvall signing wasn’t a reflection of Luplow underperforming in camp. To the contrary, the well-traveled outfielder has posted impressive numbers this spring. He was off to a .280/.379/.560 start through 29 plate appearances. Luplow had collected two homers and a double among his seven hits. He walked four times against only five strikeouts. Yet the organization has a long history with Duvall, who lingered in free agency deep into the offseason despite hitting 21 homers with a .247/.303/.531 slash for the Red Sox a year ago. Adding him to the bench at such a modest price tag was something the front office didn’t want to pass up.

Luplow shouldn’t have any issue finding another minor league opportunity elsewhere. He has tallied more than 1000 trips to the plate over the past seven seasons between six teams. Luplow got into 39 MLB contests a year ago, hitting .208/.322/.325 between the Blue Jays and Twins.

While he has posted below-average numbers over the past two seasons, Luplow has a decent track record in favorable platoon situations. He has popped 33 home runs in 565 career plate appearances against left-handed pitching. Luplow has reached base at a .338 clip with a very strong .495 slugging mark versus southpaws. He hasn’t had anywhere near the same level of success against righty pitching, posting a .197/.287/.343 slash when matched with same-handed hurlers.

Offseason In Review: Cincinnati Reds

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The Reds almost made the playoffs last year as they promoted several exciting prospects and seemed to firmly end their rebuilding period. They added to that foundation this offseason by spreading money around to several free agents.

Major League Signings

2024 spending: $61.75MM
Total spending: $111.75MM

Option Decisions

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

Though the Reds came up just shy of a postseason berth in 2023, it was still an encouraging campaign. Exciting prospects like Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Andrew Abbott and Noelvi Marté all debuted, adding to a roster of young talent that already included TJ Friedl, Spencer Steer, Will Benson, Jonathan India, Tyler Stephenson, Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and others.

It was a turning point moment for the franchise in another way as well. In addition to that infusion of young talent, 2023 was the final guaranteed year of Joey Votto’s long-running contract. Signed way back in 2012, he had many excellent seasons for the Reds. But as is so often the case with lengthy contracts, the final years weren’t especially pleasant. Votto missed time in each of the past two years thanks to shoulder surgery. He could have been retained via a club option but the Reds understandably wanted to give more playing time to younger players.

It’s a bittersweet pivot for the club, as Votto is a franchise legend and was one of the few reasons to watch during some challenging years. But he was making $25MM annually in the final years of his contract, a sizeable chunk of change for a club that doesn’t generally run high payrolls. He lingered in free agency for a while but recently signed with the Blue Jays on a minor league deal which comes with a modest $2MM base salary if he makes the club.

With Votto’s contract off the books, the Reds were able to have one of their busiest offseasons in recent memory. Their huge supply of position players seemed to not only squeeze out Votto, but also led to plenty of speculation about a trade. Since the club had an on-paper infield of Marté, De La Cruz, McLain and Encarnacion-Strand, it seemed that Steer was going to be pushed to the outfield and India onto the trading block.

Despite persistent rumors, the club was consistent in maintaining that India wasn’t going anywhere. The 2021 National League Rookie of the Year is coming off two injury-marred campaigns but the Reds seemed to believe in a bounceback and also to value his clubhouse presence. Not only was he not traded, he got a two-year deal to avoid arbitration, locking in a salary for 2025.

The club not making a trade was one surprise, but it was even more surprising when they added another infielder. They signed Jeimer Candelario to a three-year, $45MM deal with a club option for 2027. His presence further crowded the infield picture, but the Reds don’t have a strict DH, so they could use that spot to rotate their many infielders through. Candelario also gave them a bit of insurance if any of their young infielders suffered an injury or a sophomore slump and needed to return to the minors for a spell.

In hindsight, it now looks wise that they added to their infield, as Marté was recently hit with an 80-game suspension for a positive PED test. As he will sit out the first half of the season, the infield suddenly looks far less crowded. Candelario can play both corner spots but will now likely replace Marté as the regular third baseman.

Elsewhere in the position player mix, the club was facing a slight catching shortage. Last year, they had three backstops, with Luke Maile and Curt Casali in the mix. That allowed Tyler Stephenson to serve as the designated hitter and occasionally play first base. He had a bit of a down year but at least the smaller workload behind the plate kept him off the injured list. Each of Maile and Casili became free agents but the Reds re-signed Maile. Since Casali signed elsewhere, it seems they will pivot to a more traditional two-catcher setup this year.

But the main target of the offseason was pitching. The pitchers on the 2023 club were fairly inexperienced and they also dealt with a number of injuries. The pitching staff as a whole had a 4.83 earned run average last year, better than just five other clubs in the majors. The rotation was even worse, with the Cincy starters posting a 5.43 ERA, better than just the Athletics and Rockies.

They could have expected some improvement just with their incumbent options. Each of Greene, Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft spent time on the injured list last year, while Abbott was only able to log 109 1/3 innings due to his midseason promotion. But the club wasn’t content to rely solely on improvements from that group and went on to cast a wide net this winter in looking for upgrades. Their interest extended to notable free agents and trade targets, including Sonny Gray, Tyler Glasnow, Dylan Cease, Shane Bieber, Yariel Rodríguez and Wade Miley.

They didn’t seem to find much traction in those pursuits. The talks with the White Sox about Cease stalled when the Sox seemingly asked for four or five notable prospects, a price that the Reds were understandably unwilling to pay.

Instead, their big rotation addition came from free agency. The club took a bounceback flier on Frankie Montas, who has been battling shoulder issues for quite some time. He missed some time late in 2022 due to his shoulder and was shaky when on the mound, then required surgery going into 2023 which wiped out most of that season.

There’s certainly risk in giving $16MM to a pitcher with those health concerns, but it’s only for one year and will be a bargain if Montas can get back to his previous self. He made 32 starts with the A’s in 2021 with a 3.37 ERA, 26.6% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate and 42.8% ground ball rate.

The club also bolstered their staff by signing swingman Nick Martínez, who will likely be in the rotation but could eventually end up in the bullpen depending on how things play out. He has worked both roles with the Padres over the past two years, giving Cincy some flexibility to assess the health and performance of Greene, Abbott, Lodolo, Ashcraft and others.

In case Martinez is needed in the rotation, the club also reinforced their bullpen in other ways. They took a gamble on Emilio Pagán, signing him to a two-year deal. He’s coming off a strong season, having posted a 2.99 ERA with the Twins in 2023. But he’s a flyball pitcher who saw his home run to flyball rate drop to 5.3% on the season. The previous three seasons saw that rate fall in the 13-19% range as his ERA finished between 4.43 and 4.83 in those years. Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park was the most homer-friendly venue in the league last year, per Statcast, so the move is a bit eyebrow-raising.

On the other hand, their signing of Brent Suter looks like a steal. He has kept his ERA under 4.00 in five straight seasons, generally doing a great job limiting hard contact. That continued in 2023 even though he moved to the hitter’s haven of Coors Field. He likely could have secured a contract larger than one year and $3MM if he looked to maximize his guarantee, but he grew up in Cincinnati and went to high school there, perhaps leading him to take a bit of a discount to play for his hometown team. Buck Farmer was also brought back to Cincy on a modest deal.

All told, the club boosted the floor in a lot of different areas. They added a couple of starters to the rotation, a few relievers to the bullpen and even added to the already-strong position player mix. Perhaps the recent news about Marté will lead them to dip back into free agency, as there are still players out there.

The club was previously connected to Michael A. Taylor, who remains unsigned. He can provide elite defense and his right-handed bat would pair well with lefty-swinging outfielders like Friedl, Jake Fraley and Will Benson. Steer and India are both right-handed and in the mix for outfield playing time but the Marté suspension might open up some infield playing time for them, perhaps making the fit for someone like Taylor more viable.

Regardless of how that plays out, the roster looks strong going into 2024. They were carried by their lineup last year and almost made the playoffs, despite dismal results from their pitching staff. Even a slight correction could be enough to make them a legit playoff club, but they also increased their chances by signing Montas, Martínez, Pagán, Suter and Farmer. Internal improvements from Greene, Lodolo, Abbott, Ashcraft and others would only help matters.

The National League Central is fairly wide open, with no clear favorite. The Reds clearly sensed they have a chance this year and are trying to take advantage. They didn’t make any blockbuster moves but strengthened the roster in several other ways.

How would you grade the Reds' offseason?
B 52.09% (1,357 votes)
C 25.68% (669 votes)
A 14.13% (368 votes)
D 5.26% (137 votes)
F 2.84% (74 votes)
Total Votes: 2,605

Ángel Felipe To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Athletics right-hander Ángel Felipe will undergo Tommy John surgery tomorrow, with Jessica Kleinschmidt among those to relay the news. The righty will miss all of the the 2024 season and likely part of 2025 as well.

Felipe, 26, made his major league debut with the A’s last year. Claimed off waivers from the Padres in June, he went on to toss 15 innings over 14 appearances out of the Oakland bullpen in the latter parts of the 2023 campaign. He had a 4.20 earned run average in that time, striking out 29.7% of batters faced and keeping 53.3% of balls in play on the ground, but he showed a lack of control with his 20.3% walk rate.

That’s generally been the recipe with Felipe throughout his minor league career, as he has racked up lots of strikeouts and ground balls but also given out lots of free passes. He tossed 154 1/3 innings in the minors over the past three years, punching out 30.3% of opponents and getting grounders on roughly half of batted balls, but walking 12.8% of batters faced.

The A’s are deep in a rebuild and are coming into 2024 with very little that is certain in their bullpen. Sean Newcomb, Trevor Gott and Scott Alexander are the only relievers on the roster with more than three years of service time. That leaves plenty of room for some young and inexperienced hurlers to step up and seize jobs, but Felipe won’t be able to take advantage of that situation now.

Instead, he will spend 2024 rehabbing and set his sights on a return to the mound in 2025. The A’s will likely transfer him to the 60-day injured list whenever they need a roster spot. If that comes to pass, he will spend the year there collecting major league pay and service time. The A’s could also designate him for assignment but injured players can’t be placed on outright waivers, meaning Felipe would have to be placed on release waivers. If they took that route and Felipe went unclaimed, they could try to re-sign him to a minor league deal, but he would be free to pursue opportunities with other clubs as well.

Offseason In Review: Houston Astros

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The Astros entered the offseason anticipating a few depth acquisitions. An injury to one of their anticipated setup relievers spurred them in another direction: a bold strike for one of the sport’s best late-game weapons.

Major League Signings

2024 spending: $25MM
Total spending: $107MM

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

The Astros very narrowly missed another trip to the World Series. They dropped two straight at home against the Rangers to lose a seven-game ALCS. Watching their in-state rivals secure the first championship in franchise history might add some fuel to the fire, but the Astros would’ve remained firmly in win-now mode no matter how things played in October.

That didn’t necessarily portend an active winter. Houston went into the offseason with a projected franchise-record payroll. They have one of the sport’s most complete rosters. They were set to lose a few contributors but no instrumental piece of the core. Michael Brantley (who eventually announced his retirement), Martín Maldonado and the relief trio of Héctor Neris, Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek were Houston’s only free agents of note.

As a result, general manager Dana Brown indicated early in the winter that the team didn’t expect to do anything drastic. He suggested their outside acquisitions were likely to be more of the depth variety, identifying backup catcher and middle relief as the target areas.

Before they could turn their attention fully to the roster, the Astros had to address the coaching staff. Dusty Baker stepped down at year’s end, concluding what’ll almost certainly be a Hall of Fame managerial career. Joe Espada, who had worked as bench coach under both A.J. Hinch and Baker, has long seemed to be a manager-in-waiting. The Astros tabbed Espada in mid-November, giving the 48-year-old his first managerial opportunity. Organizational stalwart Omar López moved up to bench coach.

Continuity was also a theme for much of the roster, although the Astros started the offseason with a few moves around the margins. During the Winter Meetings, they inked former Brewer Victor Caratini to a two-year, $12MM pact to serve as backup catcher. That marked the end of Maldonado’s run in Houston. The Astros declared before the winter that they’d turn the primary catching job to 25-year-old Yainer Díaz, who brings a lot more offensive upside than Maldonado offers. Given Maldonado’s stature in the clubhouse, it probably would have been tough to move him fully to a backup role in Houston. It made more sense to let him sign elsewhere — he eventually landed with the White Sox on a $4.25MM pact — and bring in a new #2 option.

Caratini wound up being Houston’s only MLB free agent position player pickup of the winter. It was their only major league signing at all well into January. That’s when the club revealed that Kendall Graveman required shoulder surgery that’d end his 2024 season before it got off the ground. Between Graveman’s injury and the aforementioned trio of free agent losses, the relief corps suddenly looked alarmingly thin behind the late-inning duo of Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu.

Brown initially played coy, saying the Graveman injury wouldn’t add any urgency to bring in relief help. Yet it clearly concerned both the front office and ownership, who signed off on a surprising strike at the top of the market. Within three days of announcing the Graveman news, the Astros inked Josh Hader to a five-year, $95MM pact. It’s the second-largest guarantee to a reliever in MLB history and the highest in terms of net present value after accounting for deferrals in Edwin Díaz’s $102MM deal with the Mets.

It was a completely out of character splurge for the organization. While owner Jim Crane has approved player payrolls in the upper third of the league, the organization has been averse to long-term free agent commitments. As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, the Hader deal was the first time the Astros stretched to five years on a free agent since Crane purchased the franchise in 2011. They’d only even gone to four years once before on the $52MM Josh Reddick pact. It was also the first time that Houston signed a player who had declined a qualifying offer.

Crane and Brown considered it worthwhile to deviate from typical procedure to add arguably the sport’s best reliever while the team’s path to a title remains clear. The five-time All-Star is coming off a 1.28 ERA showing while striking out almost 37% of batters faced for the Padres. Houston gave up their second-round pick and $500K in international signing bonus space to install him in the ninth inning. That bumps Pressly into setup work, where he’ll pair with Abreu in what should be an electric back of the bullpen.

Strong as that final trio is, the middle relief group does look like a relative weak point. The Hader signing meant the Astros eschewed a volume approach to addressing the middle innings. They claimed Oliver Ortega off waivers and took a flier on Dylan Coleman in a minor trade with the Royals. Beyond that, they’re counting on Rafael Montero to rebound from a poor season and hoping for steps forward from an internal option like Brandon Bielak or Seth Martinez. Brown acknowledged over the weekend the team is still looking to add middle relief help. That’d need to come via trade, waivers or potentially a minor league free agent pickup at this point.

As far as weaknesses go, middle relief is one of the easier problems to navigate. The Astros don’t have much concern throughout the rest of the roster. Caratini and first baseman Trey Cabbage, acquired from the Angels after a DFA, were the only position player pickups of the winter. Caratini and Díaz make for a strong catching tandem. José Abreu had a disappointing first year in Houston, but he perhaps found his power stroke in the final few weeks of the season. They’ll give him another shot at first base. Jose Altuve, Jeremy Peña and Alex Bregman round out an excellent infield.

Brantley’s departure puts a little more pressure on the in-house outfielders. Kyle Tucker should provide star production in right field. Chas McCormick has been an above-average regular and should get the bulk of playing time in left field. The Astros will turn center field to defensive stalwart Jake Meyers. McCormick can handle center on days when Yordan Alvarez trots out to left field. Mauricio Dubón remains on hand as a multi-positional option off the bench.

There wasn’t much turnover in the position player group. That could change next offseason, as Bregman is on track to hit free agency. That even led to speculation that the Astros could preemptively dangle him in trade talks this winter, although the organization quickly shot down that idea. Brown and Crane each said the team will make an extension offer to Bregman at some point, but that won’t be cheap. His camp could set out in search of a deal exceeding $200MM. The same is true for Tucker, who is controllable via arbitration through the 2025 season.

Like Bregman, Altuve had been on track to hit free agency at the end of the upcoming season. It was difficult to envision the franchise stalwart donning any other uniform. The Astros and his camp all but ensured that won’t happen. They locked in a five-year, $125MM extension covering the 2025-29 seasons. That runs through Altuve’s age-39 campaign, ensuring he’ll be the franchise second baseman through the end of this competitive cycle. Altuve’s defensive grades are declining, but he remains the sport’s best offensive second baseman. Keeping him in the leadoff spot maximizes their chances of staying atop the AL West in the middle third of the decade.

The extension discussion isn’t limited to the position player side. Framber Valdez is down to his final two seasons of arbitration control. He won’t hit free agency until age 32, so he doesn’t have the same earning power as Tucker or Bregman do. Yet he’s deep enough into arbitration that he’d surely cost more than the $64MM which Houston guaranteed Cristian Javier last spring. A Valdez deal would likely go into nine figures. He and the Astros haven’t found an agreeable price point yet. As with Bregman, this led to some early-offseason trade speculation that never seemed to get far.

For now, Valdez slots back in as Houston’s top starter. That might’ve been true even if Justin Verlander were healthy, but the latter will begin the season on the injured list as he cautiously builds up after experiencing shoulder soreness early in camp. Javier, José Urquidy and Hunter Brown will follow Valdez in the season-opening rotation. J.P. France will get the nod as the #5 starter so long as he’s fully recovered from a minor shoulder issue of his own. If France does need to miss time, Bielak, Ronel Blanco or prospect Spencer Arrighetti could find themselves in the mix.

It’s a thinner rotation than the ones which the Astros have rolled out in previous years. That could be a concern around the deadline, but Brown has stated a few times it’s not something they feel compelled to address before Opening Day. Verlander’s IL stay isn’t expected to be too long. Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia could each be back from arm surgeries in the middle of the season. The front office should have a clearer idea in the summer of the extent to which they can rely on McCullers and Garcia down the stretch.

The gap in the AL West isn’t as wide as it once was. The Rangers and Mariners both pushed last year’s division race into the final weekend of the regular season. Texas got the last laugh in October. Still, the Astros have taken the AL West crown in six of the last seven seasons (all aside from the shortened 2020 schedule). They’ve gotten as far as the ALCS every year since 2017. This probably won’t be the best Astro team of the last few years, but there’s certainly enough talent to put them in the conversation at the top of the American League yet again.

How would you grade the Astros' offseason?
B 43.92% (1,059 votes)
C 32.52% (784 votes)
A 11.53% (278 votes)
D 6.89% (166 votes)
F 5.14% (124 votes)
Total Votes: 2,411

 

Mariners Outright Mauricio Llovera

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The Mariners announced that right-hander Mauricio Llovera has cleared waivers and been sent outright to Triple-A Tacoma. He has also been reassigned to minor league camp. It had not been previously reported that the righty was removed from the roster, so this will drop Seattle’s 40-man count to 39.

Llovera, 28 next month, has never appeared in a regular season game for the Mariners, having just been claimed off waivers from the Red Sox in January. He has 59 innings of major league experience under this belt with the Phillies, Giants and Red Sox over the past four years. He has a 5.80 ERA in that time, with a 20.6% strikeout rate, 10.1% walk rate and 44.6% ground ball rate.

He has been more impressive in Triple-A, posting a 2.82 ERA at that level in 92 2/3 innings over the past three years. He punched out 25.9% of opponents in that time and walked just 8.8%. Much of that sample was in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, when Llovera was in the Giants’ system.

The M’s took a flier on him but things haven’t gone especially well since then. He’s allowed five earned runs in 4 2/3 innings this spring. His velocity was down a few ticks, per Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times, which may have contributed to his uninspiring performance of late.

Llovera is now out of options and needed to either have a spot on the active roster or else be removed from the 40-man entirely. The M’s are dealing with some injuries to relievers like Gregory Santos, Matt Brash and Jackson Kowar, which could have opened a role for Llovera. But it appears his recent struggles led them to put him on waivers instead, with the 29 other clubs passing on a chance to grab him.

Llovera has a previous career outright, which means that he has the ability to reject this assignment and elect free agency. It’s not yet clear if he has chosen to do so.

Yankees Interested In Michael Lorenzen

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The Yankees have “checked in” on free agent right-hander Michael Lorenzen, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. The righty’s market may be heating up with just two weeks to go until Opening Day, as he was also connected to the White Sox yesterday.

The Yankees were already in the market for starting pitching, having been connected to Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery throughout the winter. Their need for rotation help only grew this week when ace Gerrit Cole was sidelined by an elbow issue. Cole and the Yankees are still gathering information but it seems like he will miss a month or two of the season even in a best-case scenario.

Whether Cole is ultimately destined for a brief or a lengthy absence, it’s a huge blow to the club’s rotation. Up until this issue popped up, he was the rocksteady leader of an otherwise shaky group. Carlos Rodón, Nestor Cortes and Marcus Stroman all battled injuries last year to varying extents.

Stroman was having a great year prior to his injury woes, as he had a 2.96 ERA at the All-Star break, but hip and rib cartilage injuries led to diminished results and missed time, as he finished the year with a 3.95 ERA in 136 2/3 innings. Rodón and Cortes ended up having fairly similar years in terms of limited innings and poor results. Rodón battled a forearm strain and hamstring strain as he posted a 6.85 ERA in 64 1/3 frames. Cortes twice went on the IL due to a rotator cuff strain in his left shoulder and finished the campaign with a 4.97 ERA in 63 1/3 innings.

There’s tons of bounceback potential in that trio, as Stroman has a 3.65 ERA in his career while having reached 179 innings four times in his career. Rodón was an ace over 2021 and 2022, posting a 2.67 ERA in 310 2/3 innings in that time. Cortes had a 2.61 ERA in that same two-year stretch, though in a lesser workload of 251 2/3 innings.

If all three are able to get back to their previous forms, the rotation could be in good shape without Cole, but that’s a lot for the Yanks to gamble on. They are heavily committed to competing in 2024, as they gave up five players to get one year of Juan Soto. They also got Trent Grisham from the Padres in that deal, but Soto’s 2024 season was obviously the highlight for them. In addition to the talent they gave up, they are paying Soto a $31MM salary, plus the taxes incurred as a third-time payor of the competitive balance tax.

Even in an ideal situation where Stroman, Rodón and Cortes are all in good form, there’s still the back end of the rotation to think about. Clarke Schmidt will likely be taking one spot after he put up a 4.64 ERA last year. That’s probably fine for a #5 guy but the fact that the Yankees have been consistently connected to free agents suggests they would prefer to knock Schmidt down to #6, but he’s instead been bumped up to #4 for as long as Cole is out.

Current options to take a spot behind Schmidt would include Luke Weaver, Clayton Beeter, Luis Gil, Yoendrys Gómez or Will Warren. Weaver has posted an ERA of 6.40 or higher in three of the past four seasons. Gil missed most of the past two seasons due to Tommy John surgery. Gómez has literally two innings of MLB experience while Beeter and Warren have none.

It’s a less than ideal group and it’s understandable that the club is interested in bolstering it. They’ve long been connected to marquee free agents like Snell and Montgomery but signing either of those guys would be especially costly. The Yanks are above the fourth and final tier of the CBT and are set to be a third-time payor, meaning any additional spending comes with a 110% tax bill. Even if Snell or Montgomery could be talked down to a $20MM annual salary at this late stage of the offseason, the Yanks would be looking at paying $22MM in taxes on top of that this year.

That situation would be lessened with Lorenzen, as he has a far more limited track record as a starter than those two. The Reds kept him in relief for most of his career but he sought out a return to starting when he reached free agency ahead of the 2022 season. He signed a one-year, $6.75MM deal with the Angels and was able to toss 97 2/3 innings, missing a couple of months with a shoulder strain and finishing the year with a 4.24 ERA.

It wasn’t an elite performance but he held his own and pushed up his annual workload. He then signed an $8.5MM deal with the Tigers for 2023 and took another step forward. He logged 105 2/3 innings with Detroit over 18 starts, with a 3.58 ERA in that time. He was traded to the Phillies and his first two starts for his new club were excellent. He allowed two earned runs over eight innings against the Marlins and then followed that up with a no-hitter against the Nationals.

He tossed 124 pitches in that no-hitter and seemed to break down after that. He was sporting a 3.23 ERA at that time but then allowed 27 earned runs in 30 1/3 innings the rest of the way, getting bumped to the bullpen in the process.

His 4.18 ERA on the year might not look amazing but it’s possible he ran out of gas after pushing himself further than he had gone before. Even if his true talent is a mid-4.00 ERA guy, that can be useful for the Yankees this year. Cole may be back in a few months but other injuries are inevitable and Lorenzen would improve the depth by pushing everyone down a peg.

It was reported last week that Lorenzen was holding out for a two-year deal that hasn’t yet materialized. Whether he can get that pact or ultimately has to settle for a one-year deal, he’ll be looking at a lesser salary than Snell or Lorenzen and the Yankees would have less to worry about in terms of taxes. A hypothetical $10MM salary, just as an example, would lead to $11MM in taxes. That’s still $21MM for a backend starter but it’s perhaps preferable to committing far more money and many more years for someone like Snell or Montgomery.

The Yankees were reportedly leaning towards acquiring Dylan Cease in the wake of Cole’s injury, as Cease’s $8MM salary would be far more palatable to them than the Snell/Montgomery duo, but Cease was traded to the Padres yesterday. There are some theoretical trade candidates still out there, such as Shane Bieber of the Guardians and Jesús Luzardo of the Marlins. However, both the Guards and the Fish are dealing with significant rotation injuries and may be less inclined to further subtract from their pitching staffs at the moment.

Lorenzen has received interest from the Mets, Angels, Twins, Padres and Orioles at various points this offseason, but he remains unattached now in mid-March. The Sox trading Cease seems to have given them some interest in signing Lorenzen to replace his innings, in addition to the Yankees sniffing around due to Cole’s situation. The regular season starts next week with the Seoul Series featuring the Dodgers and Padres but the rest of the league starts the season on March 28, two weeks from today.

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